Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings-Social Distancing Measures

COVID-19 prevention and control effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions-fuzzy-sets qualitative comparative analysis based on 69 countries in the world

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 occurred unexpectedly in late December 2019, it was difficult to immediately develop an effective vaccine or propose targeted medical interventions in the early stages of the outbreak. At this point, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are essential components of the public health response to COVID-19. How to combine different NPIs in the early stages of an outbreak to control the spread of epidemics and ensure that the policy combination does not incur high socio-economic costs became the focus of this study.

Methods

We mainly used the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to assess the impact of different combinations of NPIs on the effectiveness of control in the COVID-19 pandemic early stage, using open datasets containing case numbers, country populations and policy responses.

Results

We showed that the configuration of high morbidity results includes one, which is the combination of non-strict face covering, social isolation and travel restrictions. The configuration of non-high morbidity results includes three, one is strict mask wearing measures, which alone constitute sufficient conditions for interpreting the results; the second is strict testing and contact tracing, social isolation; the third is strict testing and contact tracing, travel restriction. The results of the robustness test showed that the number, components and consistency of the configurations have not changed after changing the minimum case frequency, which proved that the analysis results are reliable.

Conclusion

In the early stages of the epidemic, the causes of high morbidity are not symmetrical with the causes of non-high morbidity. Strict face covering is the most basic measure required to prevent and control epidemics, and the combination of non-strict face covering and containment is the most important factor leading to poor prevention and control, and the combination of strict containment and proactive pursuit is the way to achieve superior prevention and control, timely and proactive containment strategies have better prevention and control, and should mobilize the public to cooperate.

Construction and Validation of an Educational Technology to Promote the Health of Postmenopausal Women with Dry Eye Syndrome

The climacteric heralds a transition from reproductive to non-reproductive life in women, often accompanied by various clinical manifestations such as dry eye, impacting their quality of life. This study focuses on systematically developing and suitability an educational digital booklet to promote eye health practices and prevent problems among postmenopausal women. The methodological approach encompassed semi-structured interviews with women diagnosed with Dry Eye Syndrome (DES), then constructing the material integrating content, script, illustrations, and layout informed by the interview findings. Subsequent validation involved assessment by 24 health experts for content, appearance, and evaluation by a target audience of 22 women. The booklet attained high suitability scores, with a Global Content Validity Index (CVI) of 0.96, indicating superior suitability as judged by experts. Additionally, it achieved a Global CVI of 0.98 for validation by the target audience. In conclusion, the educational booklet emerges as a suitable and reliable resource for promoting eye heath among DES and non-syndrome women, offering significant potential for broader application in relevant populations.

Effect of Social Distancing Caused by Heavy Snowfall on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic in a Local Region in Japan

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of social distancing in controlling influenza epidemics is debatable. We analyzed the local impact of large-scale social distancing caused by heavy snowfall on influenza epidemic.

METHODS

Surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases on influenza diagnosed at registered Fukui Prefecture institutions were plotted in epidemic curves. We also compared the number of elementary and junior high school students suspended attendance due to influenza during the 2017/2018 season between the northern and southern Fukui Prefecture territories. Weekly incidence influenza rates and average rates before, during and after school closure caused by heavy snowfall in the northern territory were compared with those of the southern territory using Poisson generalized estimating equations to account for school variability.

RESULTS

The northern territory epidemic curve, like the nationwide trend, rapidly declined during the heavy snowfall and formed a second peak 4 weeks later. The southern territory's curve was like the nationwide trend throughout. Weekly incidence rate ratios in schools for the northern versus southern territories varied from 0.23 during heavy snowfall to 2.32, 4 weeks after the snowfall. Cumulative incidence ratio (95% confidence interval) of the northern-to-southern territories was 0.92 (0.74-1.13; P = 0.42). School closure significantly reduced the incidence rate to 0.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.89; P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Although relatively large-scale, simultaneous school closures and social distancing could temporarily suppress seasonal influenza epidemic, they could not impede the cumulative incidence. Large-scale social distancing may contribute to slowing infection spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Relative Role of Age Groups and Indoor Environments in Influenza Transmission Under Different Urbanization Rates in China

Exploring the relative role of different indoor environments in respiratory infections transmission remains unclear, which is crucial for developing targeted nonpharmaceutical interventions. In this study, a total of 2,583,441 influenza-like illness cases tested from 2010 to 2017 in China were identified. An agent-based model was built and calibrated with the surveillance data, to assess the roles of 3 age groups (children <19 years, younger adults 19-60 years, older adults >60 years) and 4 types of indoor environments (home, schools, workplaces, and community areas) in influenza transmission by province with varying urbanization rates. When the urbanization rates increased from 35% to 90%, the proportion of children aged <19 years among influenza cases decreased from 76% to 45%. Additionally, we estimated that infections originating from children decreased from 95.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 92.7, 97.5) to 59.3% (95% CI: 49.8, 68.7). Influenza transmission in schools decreased from 80.4% (95% CI: 76.5, 84.3) to 36.6% (95% CI: 20.6, 52.5), while transmission in the community increased from 2.4% (95% CI: 1.9, 2.8) to 45.4% (95% CI: 35.9, 54.8). With increasing urbanization rates, community areas and younger adults contributed more to infection transmission. These findings could help the development of targeted public health policies. This article is part of a Special Collection on Environmental Epidemiology. This article is part of a Special Collection on Environmental Epidemiology.

Secondary infections of COVID-19 in schools and the effectiveness of school-based interventions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

This meta-analysis explored secondary infections of SARS-CoV-2 and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in school settings, with the aim of providing a reference to formulate scientific prevention and response strategies for similar major public health emergencies in specific settings.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

Systematic searches were conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library through to 1 August 2022 using the following key search terms: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, secondary attack rate, school, transmission, etc. The IVhet model was used for the meta-analysis, and the I2 index and Cochran's Q-test were used to assess heterogeneity. Publication bias was examined using Doi plot, Galbraith plots and Luis Furuya-Kanamori index. Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool was used to assess the quality of the included articles, while Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation was used to rate the quality of the evidence. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the potential source of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Thirty-four studies involving 226,727 school contacts and 2216 secondary cases were included in this study. The pooled secondary attack rates (SARs) of close contacts, staff contacts and student contacts were 0.67% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11, 1.56), 0.79% (95% CI: 0.00, 6.72) and 0.50% (95% CI: 0.00, 4.48), respectively. Subgroup analysis suggested that multiple or specific combinations (e.g. the combination of contact restriction and hygiene action) of NPIs appeared to be associated with lower SARs.

CONCLUSIONS

The SAR of SARS-CoV-2 was low in schools. Multiple or specific combinations of prevention strategies appear to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in school settings. These findings provide a basis for continuous improvement of response strategies to major public health emergencies in the school environment.

Gap in protective behaviors between Han and minority ethnicities during COVID-19 pandemic in rural western China: A decomposition analysis

Understanding the ethnic gap in protective behavior and its explanatory factors is a promising step for reducing pandemic-induced disparities. However, no studies have endeavored to identify the factors contributing to a gap in protective behaviors between Han and minority ethnicities during COVID-19 pandemic in rural China. We aimed to analyze the gap in protective behaviors between Han and minority residents in rural China. We conducted cross-sectional studies in multi-ethnic rural China in 2020. A total of 1640 participants from Han and minority groups were invited to participate. The decomposition method was applied to analyze the gap in protective behaviors and its associated factors between the Han and minority groups. Participants in the Han group had a higher protective behavioral score (9.26 ± 1.20) than the minority group (8.97 ± 1.50), yielding a significant gap in protective behaviors between Han and minority ethnicities of 0.29. Socio-demographic characteristics, health status, the degree of knowledge held about COVID-19, and psychological responses to COVID-19 explained 79.3 % (0.23/0.29) of the behavioral gap between the Han and minority groups. The difference in household asset levels was the largest explained contributor to the behavioral gap (52.17 %) (0.12/0.23), followed by fear felt for COVID-19 (-21.74 %) (-0.05/0.23). Differences in educational attainment, degree of knowledge held about COVID-19, and self-efficacy in response to COVID-19 each explained 17.4 % (0.04/0.23) of the behavioral gap. In conclusion, Han group show greater protective behaviors than minority ethnic groups. To drive better protective behavior in the most vulnerable communities, targeted, group-specific COVID-19 preventative messages deployed in public health communication strategies is suggested to enhance individual confidence in coping with the pandemic while creating a healthy amount of fear for public health crisis.

Impact of COVID-19 Infections among Unvaccinated Patients with Congenital Heart Disease: Results of a Nationwide Analysis in the First Phase of the Pandemic

Background: The outcome data and predictors for mortality among patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) affected by COVID-19 are limited. A more detailed understanding may aid in implementing targeted prevention measures in potential future pandemic events. Methods: Based on nationwide administrative health insurance data, all the recorded in-hospital cases of patients with CHD with COVID-19 in 2020 were analyzed. The demographics, treatment details, as well as 30-day mortality rate were assessed. The associations of the patients' characteristics with death were assessed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Overall, 403 patients with CHD were treated in- hospital for COVID-19 in 2020. Of these, 338 patients presented with virus detection but no pneumonia whilst, 65 patients suffered from associated pneumonia. The cohort of patients with pneumonia was older (p = 0.04) and presented with more cardiovascular comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus (p = 0.08), although this parameter did not reach a statistically significant difference. The 30-day mortality rate was associated with highly complex CHD (odds ratio (OR) 7.81, p = 0.04) and advanced age (OR 2.99 per 10 years, p = 0.03). No child died of COVID-related pneumonia in our dataset. Conclusions: COVID-19 infection with associated pneumonia chiefly affected the older patients with CHD. Age and the complexity of CHD were identified as additional predictors of mortality. These aspects might be helpful to retrospectively audit the recommendations and guide health politics during future pandemic events.

The mortality and years of life lost for community-acquired pneumonia before and during COVID-19 pandemic in China

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of mortality worldwide, but disease burden of CAP is not clear so far. We aim to explore the spatial and temporal trends of mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to CAP during 2013-2021 in mainland China, especially the mortality changes before and during COVID-19 pandemic due to COVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

Methods

We used data from the National Mortality Surveillance System to estimate the age-standardized rates of death and YLL of CAP at national and provincial level in China during 2013-2021. Monthly and provincial NPIs data were obtained from Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. The Average annual percentage change (AAPC) and mortality reduction were estimated by log-linear regression and interrupted time series, respectively.

Findings

In China, most CAP that caused deaths had no clear etiology, and bacterial pneumonia and viral pneumonia were the leading 2 causes among CAP deaths with determined etiology before and during COVID-19 pandemic. The age-standardized CAP mortality rate decreased from 11.18 per 100,000 in 2013 to 8.76 per 100,000 in 2019, and to 5.74 per 100,000 in 2021 (AAPC -4.51% vs -7.89%). Trends were similar in age-standardized rate of YLL. Both rates declined more for viral pneumonia, compared with bacterial pneumonia. After adjusting for NPIs at provincial level after 2020, the NPIs for COVID-19 was associated with significant reductions in CAP mortality (-0.34 per 100,000, -0.41 to -0.27; p < 0.0001), and provinces that economically developed and conducted strict regular NPIs against COVID-19 contributed the most reduction.

Interpretation

We observed a decreasing trend of age-standardized CAP mortality from 2013 to 2019, and a dramatical reduction during COVID-19 pandemic, especially for viral pneumonia. Our study provided the evidence for the effectiveness of regular NPIs on the significant reductions in CAP mortality.

Funding

This work has been supported by Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project Z191100006619101, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS 2021-I2M-1-048), CAMS Institute of Respiratory Medicine Grant for Young Scholars (2023-ZF-8) and the New Cornerstone Science Foundation.

Influenza Resurgence after Relaxation of Public Health and Social Measures, Hong Kong, 2023

Soon after a mask mandate was relaxed (March 1, 2023), the first post-COVID-19 influenza season in Hong Kong lasted 12 weeks. After other preventive measures were accounted for, mask wearing was associated with an estimated 25% reduction in influenza transmission. Influenza resurgence probably resulted from relaxation of mask mandates and other measures.

The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Service Utilization Among Chronic Disease Patients in South Africa

Introduction

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought many disruptions in health service delivery. Evidence show that the pandemic has negatively affected routine healthcare utilization such as maternal and child health services, but the literature on the effect on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is scant in South Africa. These disruptions can have long-term health and economic implications for patients.

Objective

To estimate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on service utilization among chronic disease patients in South Africa using administrative data.

Methods

Using monthly data from the Centralized Chronic Medication Dispensing and Distribution (CCMDD) program database covering November 2018 to October 2021, we examined the effects of COVID-19 lockdown on utilization among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) medication only (ART-only), patients receiving both ART and NCD medication (ART + NCD), and patients receiving NCD medications only (NCD-only). We employed segmented interrupted time series approach to examine the changes. We stratified the analysis by socioeconomic status.

Results

We found that, overall, the lockdown was associated with increased utilization of CCMDD services by 10.8% (95% CI: 3.3%-19%) for ART-only and 10.3% (95% CI: 3.3%-17.7%) for NCD-only patients. The increase in utilization was not different across socioeconomic groups. For patients receiving ART + NCD medications, utilization declined by 56.6% (95% CI: 47.6%-64.1%), and higher reductions occurred in low SES districts.

Conclusion

Patients should be educated about the need to continue with utilization of disease programs during a pandemic and beyond. More efforts are needed to improve service use among patients with multi-morbidities.

Embodying Temporality in Response Efficacy: How Coping Appraisal Promotes Preventive Behavioral Engagement During the Ongoing Pandemic

This study heightens the understanding of response efficacy as a determinant of engagement in preventive behavior during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve a more nuanced conceptualization of response efficacy, this study proposes and examines a time-based coping appraisal framework, drawing upon a part of the extended parallel process model (EPPM). The current study investigates how the temporality of coping response message features work in generating social distancing behavioral intentions and explicates the role of anticipated emotions in this motivational process. Results of the experimental study (N = 584) indicate that proximal future framed coping response message (vs. distant future message) led to greater response efficacy, which in turn led to greater anticipated guilt and pride, and by extension increased social distancing behavioral intentions. Mediation analyses also demonstrated the indirect effects of the temporality conditions (proximal future-oriented message vs. distant future-oriented message) on social distancing intentions through response efficacy, anticipated guilt, and anticipated pride. The theoretical and practical implications of this study are discussed.

Epidemiological Study of Respiratory Virus Infections among Hospitalized Children Aged 14 Years and Younger during COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan, China, 2018-2022

Introduction

The viral etiological characteristics and prevalence of hospitalized children with acute respiratory tract infection were preliminary studied in Wuhan City during the COVID-19 pandemic, to provide a reliable scientific basis for better understanding of the role of various pathogens in cases and for the prevention and clinical treatment of acute respiratory tract infection.

Methods

A total of 69,086 children with acute respiratory infections hospitalized and treated in our department from January 2018 to December 2022 were enrolled as our research subjects. Sociodemographic and clinical data as well as nasopharyngeal samples were collected from patients. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus (ADV), infuenza virus A (FluA), infuenza virus B (FluB), and parainfluenza virus (PIV) were detected by direct immunofluorescence (DFA) to understand and analyze the epidemic characteristics of respiratory pathogens in children during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

The total detection rate of respiratory pathogens was 24.52% of the 69,086 hospitalized children. The frequency of respiratory viruses in those ADV, RSV, FluA, FluB, and PIV was 14.67%, 46.40%, 7.76%, 5.23%, and 25.95%. There were significant differences between the various pathogens (P < 0.001). There were the fewest pathogen-positive patients and positive detection rate in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. There were significant differences in the pathogen detection rate among different years (P < 0.001). In addition, the results showed that the total detection rate of respiratory virus tested in different age groups was significantly different (P < 0.001). The positive detection rate was highest in the 1-3-year-old age group, which is prone to acute respiratory infections. We also found that different pathogens showed obvious seasonal fluctuation and epidemic. RSV reached its peak in winter. ADV is mainly prevalent in spring and summer. FluA has a high detection rate in winter. Winter and spring are the peak seasons for FluB infection, whereas PIV is detected in all seasons, with a higher incidence rate in the spring and summer.

Conclusion

The epidemiological distribution of pathogens of acute respiratory tract infection in hospitalized children in Wuhan from 2018 to 2022 varies with gender, age, and season. Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented as control measures worldwide and reduced the transmission of respiratory pathogens. NPIs are likely to be the primary driver of the dramatic reduction in respiratory virus infection activity in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, to dissolving NPIs can lead to a recurrence of viral infection pathogens, especially in children.

Exploring the relationship between government stringency and preventative social behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom

We constructed a preventive social behaviours (PSB) Index using survey questions that were aligned with WHO recommendations, and used linear regression to assess the impact of reported COVID-19 deaths (RCD), people's confidence of government handling of the pandemic (CGH) and government stringency (GS) in the United Kingdom (UK) over time on the PSB index. We used repeated, nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys in the UK over the course of 41 weeks from 1st April 2020 to January 28th, 2021, including a total of 38,092 participants. The PSB index was positively correlated with the logarithm of RCD (R: 0.881, p < .001), CGH (R: 0.592, p < .001) and GS (R: 0.785, p < .001), but was not correlated with time (R: -0.118, p = .485). A multivariate linear regression analysis suggests that the log of RCD (coefficient: 0.125, p < .001), GS (coefficient: 0.010, p = .019), and CGH (coefficient: 0.0.009, p < .001) had a positive and significant impact on the PSB Index, while time did not affect it significantly. These findings suggest that people's behaviours could have been affected by multiple factors during the pandemic, with the number of COVID-19 deaths being the largest contributor towards an increase in protective behaviours in our model.

Alterations in Patients' Clinical Outcomes and Respiratory Viral Pathogen Activity following the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, respiratory pathogens such as influenza, parainfluenza, and respiratory syncytial virus were the most commonly detected viruses among hospitalized patients with respiratory tract infections.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study of inpatients and outpatients who attended Jordan University Hospital and underwent Nasopharyngeal Aspiration (NPA) in the periods from December 2017 to December 2018 and from December 2021 to December 2022. The results of multiplex respiratory pathogen real-time PCR tests for nasopharyngeal swab specimens were extracted from the electronic-based molecular diagnostic laboratory record of JUH. We compared the prevalence of the detected viruses as well as the patients' characteristics and outcomes between the two periods.

RESULTS

The total number of included patients was 695. Our analysis showed that a higher percentage of patients with hypertension and diabetes presented before the pandemic compared to the same period after it (p-value < 0.001). The need for O2 devices, white blood cell counts, diastolic blood pressure, and the length of hospital stay were significantly higher among patients who presented before the pandemic (p-value < 0.050). Influenza H1N1 (8.70% vs. 4.03%), influenza B (1.67% vs. 0.25%), parainfluenza (1.00% vs. 0.00%), human metapneumovirus (5.35% vs. 0.76%), adenoviruses (6.35% vs. 3.02%), and coronaviruses (8.70% vs. 3.53%) were detected with higher frequency in the period before the pandemic (p-value = 0.011, 0.045, 0.045, 0.000, 0.035, 0.004). These results were similar in terms of changes in the detection rates of viruses after matching the number of tested patients between the periods before and after the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

We have demonstrated a reduction in the detection of several viruses, which might be due to the increase in public awareness toward infection protection measures after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unique SARS-CoV-2 Variants, Tourism Metrics, and B.1.2 Emergence in Early COVID-19 Pandemic: A Correlation Analysis in South Dakota

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, which is the source of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was declared a pandemic in the March of 2020. Travel and tourism were severely impacted as restrictions were imposed to help slow the disease spread, but some states took alternative approaches to travel restrictions. This study investigated the spread of COVID-19 in South Dakota during the early pandemic period to better understand how tourism affected the movement of the virus within the region. Sequences from the fall of 2020 were retrieved from public sources. CDC and other sources were used to determine infections, deaths, and tourism metrics during this time. The data were analyzed using correlation and logistic regression. This study found that the number of unique variants per month was positively correlated with hotel occupancy, but not with the number of cases or deaths. Interestingly, the emergence of the B.1.2 variant in South Dakota was positively correlated with increased case numbers and deaths. Data show that states with a shelter-in-place order were associated with a slower emergence of the B.1.2 variant compared to states without such an order, including South Dakota. Findings suggest complex relationships between tourism, SARS-CoV-2 infections, and mitigation strategies. The unique approach that South Dakota adopted provided insights into the spread of the disease in areas without state-wide restrictions. Our results suggest both positive and negative aspects of this approach. Finally, our data highlight the need for future surveillance efforts, including efforts focused on identifying variants with known increased transmission potential to produce effective population health management.

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus disease pandemic in Korea

BACKGROUND

Although the ongoing epidemics of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have affected the mortality trend of the nation, the national level assessment of excess mortality (changes in overall mortality in the entire population) is still scarce in Korea. Therefore, this study evaluated the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea using the certified mortality data.

METHODS

Monthly mortality and population data from January 2013 to June 2022 was obtained from the National Health Insurance Service database and Statistics Korea. A quasi-Poisson interrupted time-series model adjusted for age structure, population, seasonality, and long-term trends was used to estimate the counterfactual projections (expected) of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to June 2022). The absolute difference (observed-expected) and ratio (observed / expected) of mortality were calculated. Stratified analysis based on pandemic years (years 2020, 2021, and 2022), sex, and age groups (aged 0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ≥ 65 years) were conducted.

RESULTS

An 8.7% increase in mortality was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic [absolute difference: 61,277 persons; ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.087 (1.066, 1.107)]. The gap between observed and estimated mortality became wider with continuation of the pandemic [ratio (95% CI), year 2020: 1.021 (1.003, 1.040); year 2021: 1.060 (1.039, 1.080), year 2022: 1.244 (1.219, 1.270)]. Although excess mortality across sex was similar, the adult [aged 20-64, ratio (95% CI): 1.059 (1.043, 1.076)] and elderly [aged 65-, ratio (95% CI): 1.098 (1.062, 1.135)] population showed increased excess mortality during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite Korea's successful quarantine policy response, the continued epidemic has led to an excess mortality. The estimated mortality exceeded the number of deaths from COVID-19 infection. Excess mortality should be monitored to estimate the overall impact of the pandemic on a nation.

The defense of Shangri-La: Protecting isolated communities by periodic infection screening in the worst future pandemic

In the worst future pandemic, effective vaccines and medicines could be unavailable for a long time. In such circumstances, it is necessary to evaluate whether a periodic screening can protect isolated communities and critical facilities and avoid a complete shutdown. In this study, we introduced an epidemiological model that included the essential parameters of infection transmission and screening. With varying parameters, we studied the dynamics of viral infection in the isolated communities. In the scenario with a periodic infection screening once per 3 days and a viral basic reproduction number 3.0, >85% of the infection waves have a duration <7 days and the infection size in each of the waves is generally <4 individuals when the efficiency of infection discovery is 0.9 in the screening. When the period of screening was elongated to once per 7 days, the cases of infection dramatically increased to 5 folds of that mentioned previously. Further, with a weak discovery efficiency of 0.7 and the aforementioned low screening frequency, the spread of infection would be out of control. Our study suggests that frequent periodic screening is capable of controlling a future epidemic in isolated communities without other measures.

Social isolation in COVID-19: a comparative study between Korea and Vietnam

Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, social isolation has become a pressing issue worldwide, deeply affecting individuals' mental and physical well-being. This study introduces a theoretical model to understand the factors influencing social isolation in the context of this global health crisis. We employed a survey methodology, collecting data from Korean and Vietnamese university students through a Google survey form. The theoretical model was evaluated using structural equation modeling (SEM), and multi-group analysis (MGA) was used to assess differences between the Korean and Vietnamese student groups. The investigation centered on affective risk perception, cognitive risk perception, social distancing attitude, social distancing intention, and demographic factors like age and gender. Our findings revealed that affective and cognitive risk perceptions have significant positive impacts on attitudes toward social distancing. Furthermore, attitudes towards social distancing were found to significantly influence social distancing intentions. Interestingly, social distancing intention was found to have a significant positive correlation with social isolation. Lastly, demographic factors such as gender and age were found to be significant factors influencing social isolation. Specifically, gender had a positive association, while age showed a negative correlation with social isolation. Moreover, our MGA results showed that the relationship between social distancing intention and social isolation significantly differed between the Korean and Vietnamese student groups, indicating potential cultural or societal influences on this relationship. Such understanding could inform policies and strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of social isolation in the wake of global health crises.

Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.

"It Happened to Me and It's Serious": Conditional Indirect Effects of Infection Severity Narrated in Testimonial Tweets on COVID-19 Prevention

The health crisis caused by COVID-19 resulted in societal breakdowns around the world. Our research is based on determining which features of testimonial messages are most relevant in increasing persuasive impact. An online experiment with a 2 (severity infection narrative: low vs. high) × 2 (infection target: narrative's protagonist vs. protagonist's father) between-subject factorial design was carried out. Young people between 18 and 28 years (N = 278) were randomly assigned to one of the four experimental conditions, where they were asked to read a narrative message in the form of a Twitter thread describing a COVID-19 infection (with mild or severe symptoms) that affected either the protagonist of the message (a 23-year-old young person) or their father. After reading the narrative message, the mediating and dependent variables were evaluated. A message describing a severe COVID-19 infection affecting their protagonist to increase the perception of personal risk increased the persuasive impact through an increase in cognitive elaboration and a reduction in reactance. Our study highlights that creating persuasive messages based on social media targeted at young people that describe a careless behavior resulting in a severe COVID-19 infection can be an appropriate strategy for designing prevention campaigns.

Information-epidemic co-evolution propagation under policy intervention in multiplex networks

The emergence of epidemics has seriously threatened the running of human society, such as COVID-19. During the epidemics, some external factors usually have a non-negligible impact on the epidemic transmission. Therefore, we not only consider the interaction between epidemic-related information and infectious diseases, but also the influence of policy interventions on epidemic propagation in this work. We establish a novel model that includes two dynamic processes to explore the co-evolutionary spread of epidemic-related information and infectious diseases under policy intervention, one of which depicts information diffusion about infectious diseases and the other denotes the epidemic transmission. A weighted network is introduced into the epidemic spreading to characterize the impact of policy interventions on social distance between individuals. The dynamic equations are established to describe the proposed model according to the micro-Markov chain (MMC) method. The derived analytical expressions of the epidemic threshold indicate that the network topology, epidemic-related information diffusion and policy intervention all have a direct impact on the epidemic threshold. We use numerical simulation experiments to verify the dynamic equations and epidemic threshold, and further discuss the co-evolution dynamics of the proposed model. Our results show that strengthening epidemic-related information diffusion and policy intervention can significantly inhibit the outbreak and spread of infectious diseases. The current work can provide some valuable references for public health departments to formulate the epidemic prevention and control measures.

Effect of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 in Rwanda: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

On 11 March 2020, COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The first case was identified in Rwanda on 24 March 2020. Three waves of COVID-19 outbreak have been observed since the identification of the first case in Rwanda. During the COVID-19 epidemic, the country of Rwanda has implemented many Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) that appear to be effective. However, a study was needed to investigate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions applied in Rwanda to guide ongoing and future responses to epidemics of this emerging disease across the World.

METHODS

A quantitative observational study was conducted by conducting analysis of COVID-19 cases reported daily in Rwanda from 24 March 2020 to 21 November 2021. Data used were obtained from the official Twitter account of Ministry Health and the website of Rwanda Biomedical Center. Frequencies of COVID-19 cases and incidence rates were calculated, and to determine the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on changes in COVID-19 cases an interrupted time series analysis was used.

RESULTS

Rwanda has experienced three waves of COVID-19 outbreak from March 2020 to November 2021. The major NPIs applied in Rwanda included lockdowns, movement restriction among districts and Kigali City, and curfews. Of 100,217 COVID-19 confirmed cases as of 21 November 2021, the majority were female 51,671 (52%) and 25,713 (26%) were in the age group of 30-39, and 1866 (1%) were imported cases. The case fatality rate was high among men (n = 724/48,546; 1.5%), age > 80 (n = 309/1866; 17%) and local cases (n = 1340/98,846; 1.4%). The interrupted time series analysis revealed that during the first wave NPIs decreased the number of COVID-19 cases by 64 cases per week. NPIs applied in the second wave decreased COVID-19 cases by 103 per week after implementation, while in the third wave after NPIs implementation, a significant decrease of 459 cases per week was observed.

CONCLUSION

The early implementation of lockdown, restriction of movements and putting in place curfews may reduce the transmission of COVID-19 across the country. The NPIs implemented in Rwanda appear to be effectively containing the COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, setting up the NPIs early is important to prevent further spread of the virus.

Association of public health and social measures on the hand-foot-mouth epidemic in South Korea

BACKGROUND

School based-measures such as school closure and school holidays have been considered a viable intervention during the hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic. The aim of this study was to explore the association of nationwide public health and social measures (PHSMs) including planned school vacation on the transmissibility and attack rate of the HFMD epidemic in South Korea.

METHODS

In this study, we used Korean national surveillance data on HFMD from 2014 to 2019 to estimate the temporal changes in HFMD transmissibility (instantaneous reproductive number, Rt). Furthermore, to assess the changes in the HFMD attack rate, we used a stochastic transmission model to simulate the HFMD epidemic with no school vacation and nationwide PHSMs in 2015 South Korea.

RESULTS

We found that school vacations and 2015 PHSMs were associated with the reduced Rt by 2-7 % and 13 %, respectively. Model projections indicated school vacations and 2015 PHSMs were associated with reduced HFMD attack rate by an average of 1.10 % (range: 0.38-1.51 %).

CONCLUSIONS

PHSMs likely have a larger association with reduced HFMD transmissibility than school-based measures alone (i.e. school vacations). Preventive measures targeting preschoolers could be considered as potential options for reducing the future burden of HFMD.

The Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Viral, Bacterial, and Fungal Respiratory Infections

Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains an ongoing threat, concerns regarding other respiratory infections remain. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic various epidemiologic trends have been observed in other respiratory viruses including a reduction in influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infections following onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Observations suggest that infections with other respiratory viruses were reduced with social distancing, mask wearing, eye protection, and hand hygiene practices. Coinfections with COVID-19 exist not only with other respiratory viruses but also with bacterial pneumonias and other nosocomial and opportunistic infections. Coinfections have been associated with increased severity of illness and other adverse outcomes.

Sustainable response strategy for COVID-19: Pandemic zoning with urban multimodal transport data

In the post-COVID-19 era, the pandemic response is increasingly difficult and entails a high cost to society. Existing pandemic control methods, such as lockdowns, greatly affect residents' normal lives. This paper proposes a pandemic control method, consisting of the scientific delineation of urban areas based on multimodal transportation data. An improved Leiden method based on the gravity model is used to construct a preliminary zoning scheme, which is then modified by spatial constraints. The modularity index demonstrates the suitability of this method for community detection. This method can minimize cut-off traffic flows between pandemic control areas. The results show that only 24.8% of travel links are disrupted using our method, which could reduce both the impact of pandemic control on the daily life of residents and its cost. These findings can help develop sustainable strategies and proposals for effective pandemic response.

Identification and genome sequencing of an influenza H3N2 variant in wastewater from elementary schools during a surge of influenza A cases in Las Vegas, Nevada

Real-time surveillance of infectious diseases at schools or in communities is often hampered by delays in reporting due to resource limitations and infrastructure issues. By incorporating quantitative PCR and genome sequencing, wastewater surveillance has been an effective complement to public health surveillance at the community and building-scale for pathogens such as poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, and even the monkeypox virus. In this study, we asked whether wastewater surveillance programs at elementary schools could be leveraged to detect RNA from influenza viruses shed in wastewater. We monitored for influenza A and B viral RNA in wastewater from six elementary schools from January to May 2022. Quantitative PCR led to the identification of influenza A viral RNA at three schools, which coincided with the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and a surge in influenza A infections in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. We performed genome sequencing of wastewater RNA, leading to the identification of a 2021-2022 vaccine-resistant influenza A (H3N2) 3C.2a1b.2a.2 subclade. We next tested wastewater samples from a treatment plant that serviced the elementary schools, but we were unable to detect the presence of influenza A/B RNA. Together, our results demonstrate the utility of near-source wastewater surveillance for the detection of local influenza transmission in schools, which has the potential to be investigated further with paired school-level influenza incidence data.

Seeing the forest and the trees: Holistic view of social distancing on the spread of COVID-19 in China

The human social and behavioral activities play significant roles in the spread of COVID-19. Social-distancing centered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the best strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19 prior to an effective pharmaceutical or vaccine solution. This study investigates various social-distancing measures' impact on the spread of COVID-19 using advanced global and novel local geospatial techniques. Social distancing measures are acquired through website analysis, document text analysis, and other big data extraction strategies. A spatial panel regression model and a newly proposed geographically weighted panel regression model are applied to investigate the global and local relationships between the spread of COVID-19 and the various social distancing measures. Results from the combined global and local analyses confirm the effectiveness of NPI strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19. While global level strategies allow a nation to implement social distancing measures immediately at the beginning to minimize the impact of the disease, local level strategies fine tune such measures based on different times and places to provide targeted implementation to balance conflicting demands during the pandemic. The local level analysis further suggests that implementing different NPI strategies in different locations might allow us to battle unknown global pandemic more efficiently.

Epidemic control in networks with cliques

Social units, such as households and schools, can play an important role in controlling epidemic outbreaks. In this work, we study an epidemic model with a prompt quarantine measure on networks with cliques (a clique is a fully connected subgraph representing a social unit). According to this strategy, newly infected individuals are detected and quarantined (along with their close contacts) with probability f. Numerical simulations reveal that epidemic outbreaks in networks with cliques are abruptly suppressed at a transition point f_{c}. However, small outbreaks show features of a second-order phase transition around f_{c}. Therefore, our model can exhibit properties of both discontinuous and continuous phase transitions. Next, we show analytically that the probability of small outbreaks goes continuously to 1 at f_{c} in the thermodynamic limit. Finally, we find that our model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon.

Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland: Health Protective Behavior in the Context of Communication and Perceptions of Efficacy, Norms, and Threat

The success of health protection measures depends on public compliance. This paper aims to understand the influence of three different types of communication (i.e., news media, social media, and interpersonal communication) on people's engagement in health protective behavior during a public health crisis. Our C-ENT model of health protective behavior proposes that communication raises perceptions of efficacy, norms, and threat, which in turn influence health protective behavior (communication → efficacy, norms, threat: C-ENT). We test the model for the case of social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on a representative online survey during the first week of the lockdown in Switzerland (N = 1005). The results support the C-ENT model and illustrate the important role of communication engagement during a public health crisis. News media use was associated with perceptions of behavior-related efficacy and norms and disease-related threat, and these perceptions were positively associated with compliance with social distancing. Social media use and interpersonal communication were related with perceived norms. Social media use was negatively and interpersonal communication positively associated with health behavior-supporting normative perceptions. Our findings suggest taking the distinct pattern among communication types (i.e., news media, social media, and interpersonal communication), perceptions, and behavior into account in order to understand existing dependencies and design respective communication strategies.

What Can We Learn About the Others Present During Incidents of Child Abuse?: Key Lessons and Future Directions Based on a Scoping Review

Child abuse (CA) is a global problem that has received attention from policymakers, researchers, and practitioners. The majority of studies have focused on the phenomenon's epidemiology and consequences, alongside groundbreaking writing on victims and perpetrators. The concept of others who are present during the abuse is understudied and underdeveloped, despite its vital importance in better understanding children's experiences as well as their disclosure. The current study was designed to spotlight the phenomenon of others' presence, beyond the victims and perpetrators, during child abuse incidents. The current literature review was guided by a scoping review strategy. The results revealed scant empirical data, with only 15 studies meeting the inclusion criteria of the study. The articles that met the inclusion criteria addressed other people's presence during CA incidents, were published in peer-reviewed journals, and were written in the English language. These articles' analyses addressed the relations of the survivors with these others, pointing mainly to two identities: accidental bystanders who are not familiar with the child and family members of the child. The results provided a glance into the process that accidental bystanders go through during the abuse and the meaning of their presence for those who are family members. The perceptions and experiences of the children themselves with respect to the presence of the others during the abuse are noticeably lacking. The key conclusion from the current scoping review pinpoints the urgent need to advance the empirical knowledge on the presence of others during incidents of child abuse, especially others who are familiar to the children and are a significant part of their lives. The conceptualization of this phenomenon has the potential to better adapt prevention and intervention efforts in the field of child abuse.

The Prevalence of Side Effects of Sinopharm COVID-19 Vaccine: An Experience From Pakistan

Introduction Vaccination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) helps develop protective immunity against COVID-19 without experiencing potentially severe illness. Many vaccines are used worldwide, but there is little data on the efficacy and side effects of the Sinopharm vaccine. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the reported adverse effects of the Sinopharm vaccine among participants. Methods This prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in multiple hospitals in Karachi, Pakistan. The study was eight months, from April 1, 2022, to November 30, 2022. A total of 600 participants who gave informed consent and had received their first and second doses of the Sinopharm vaccine were included in the study. As hypertension and diabetes mellitus (DM) are common prevalent conditions in our population, the duration of DM and hypertension were documented as means and standard deviations apart from age, height, and weight. Side effects of the Sinopharm vaccine were reported as frequencies and percentages. Results The study findings showed that out of 600 participants, 376 (62.7%) were males and 224 (37.3%) were females; their mean age was 42.79±14.44 years. Among them, 130 (21.7%) had hypertension, and 138 (23.0%) had DM. All participants received the Sinopharm vaccine. Fever was the most frequently reported adverse effect following the first dose of the Sinopharm vaccine in 308 (51.3% of participants), followed by burning at the injection site in 244 (40.7% of participants) and pain at the injection site in 228 (38.0% of participants). Following the second dose of the Sinopharm vaccine, fever was the most frequently reported side effect in 254 (42.3%) participants, followed by pain at the injection site in 236 (39.5%) participants and burning at the site of injection in 210 (35.0%) participants. Moreover, joint pain in 194 (32.3%), shortness of breath in 170 (28.3%), swelling of glands in 168 (28.0%), chest pain in 164 (27.3%), and muscle pain were reported by 140 (23.3%) participants. The level of satisfaction showed that the majority of the participants, 334 (55.7%), were satisfied, 132 (22.0%) were very satisfied with their vaccination, and only 12 (2.0%) were dissatisfied. Conclusion This study concluded that fever was the most frequent side effect after both doses of the Sinopharm vaccine. Pain and burning at the injection site and joint pain were among the other common side effects reported by most participants. The Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine had mild, predictable, and non-life-threatening side effects after the first and second doses.

Perceptions, Knowledge, and Experiences of Using Face Masks among Egyptian Healthcare Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study

Using face masks appropriately is important for preventing the community spread of respiratory infections. A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate the knowledge level and experience of using face masks between healthcare teams to protect them and limit the spread of COVID-19 infection. A structured questionnaire was distributed to 228 healthcare members in July–December 2021. It was divided into two sections and consisted of 29 questions for a total possible score of 0 to 29. The first section was related to perceptions and knowledge about face masks (13 items); the second was related to the experience of using face masks (16 items). The average score of this questionnaire was 23.21/29 with respect to the knowledge about face masks and their proper use techniques. The healthcare team studied had satisfactory knowledge about face mask use techniques, and the study shed light on their unsatisfactory practices. Following instructions is very vital to protecting the person wearing the mask and preventing the spread of infection during health care by blocking droplets produced by speaking or coughing. Providing the healthcare teams with knowledge and experience about how to use face masks during the pandemic is critical to increase their awareness and practice in using face masks and prevent the infection from spreading.

Self-esteem influences the willingness to engage in COVID-19 prevention behavior and persuasion efficacy

RATIONALE

Behaviors such as hand-washing and vaccination save human lives during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. Yet, people differ widely in their willingness to engage in them. This investigation examines whether people's willingness to protect themselves physically from contracting coronavirus depends on their self-esteem. Based on self-verification theory, we propose that people who hold negative self-views are less motivated to protect their health which reduces their willingness to engage in recommended preventive measures such as mask-wearing and social-distancing.

OBJECTIVE

We set out to test (i) whether self-esteem predicts people's willingness to engage in COVID-19 prevention behaviors, (ii) whether this relationship is due to variance in motivation to protect one's health (as well as alternative mechanisms), and (iii) whether health messages can more successfully persuade low self-esteem people to follow preventive measures by framing those behaviors around protecting the health of others (vs. oneself).

METHODS

Four studies were conducted with U.S. and German residents. In Study 1, we examine the association between self-esteem, willingness to engage in self-protection behavior, health motivation, and several alternative accounts. In Study 2, we manipulate state self-esteem, and in Studies 3 and 4, we vary the target of COVID-19 prevention behaviors (self vs. other).

RESULTS

People with chronic or temporarily induced low self-esteem report a lower willingness to engage in COVID-19 prevention behaviors because they lack motivation to protect their health. Varying the protection target of preventive behaviors (self vs. others) interacts with self-esteem: Low self-esteem people are more willing to follow preventive measures (e.g., vaccination) when they are framed as protecting others (vs. oneself).

CONCLUSIONS

Self-esteem impacts people's behavior during a global pandemic and needs to be considered when designing health communications. Public health messages can increase compliance among individuals with lower self-esteem by framing prevention behaviors as a way to protect the health of others.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions on influenza-like illness in Beijing and Hong Kong: an observational and modeling study

BACKGROUND

The impact of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on influenza activity in the presence of other known seasonal driving factors is unclear, especially at the municipal scale. This study aimed to assess the impact of NPIs on outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) consultations in Beijing and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.

METHODS

We descriptively analyzed the temporal characteristics of the weekly ILI counts, nine NPI indicators, mean temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity from 2011 to 2021. Generalized additive models (GAM) using data in 2011-2019 were established to predict the weekly ILI counts under a counterfactual scenario of no COVID-19 interventions in Beijing and the Hong Kong SAR in 2020-2021, respectively. GAM models were further built to evaluate the potential impact of each individual or combined NPIs on weekly ILI counts in the presence of other seasonal driving factors in the above settings in 2020-2021.

RESULTS

The weekly ILI counts in Beijing and the Hong Kong SAR fluctuated across years and months in 2011-2019, with an obvious winter-spring seasonality in Beijing. During the 2020-2021 season, the observed weekly ILI counts in both Beijing and the Hong Kong SAR were much lower than those of the past 9 flu seasons, with a 47.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 42.3%, 52.2%) and 60.0% (95% CI: 58.6%, 61.1%) reduction, respectively. The observed numbers for these two cities also accounted for only 40.2% (95% CI: 35.4%, 45.3%) and 58.0% (95% CI: 54.1%, 61.5%) of the GAM model estimates in the absence of COVID-19 NPIs, respectively. Our study revealed that, "Cancelling public events" and "Restrictions on internal travel" measures played an important role in the reduction of ILI in Beijing, while the "restrictions on international travel" was statistically most associated with ILI reductions in the Hong Kong SAR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that COVID-19 NPIs had been reducing outpatient ILI consultations in the presence of other seasonal driving factors in Beijing and the Hong Kong SAR from 2020 to 2021. In cities with varying local circumstances, some NPIs with appropriate stringency may be tailored to reduce the burden of ILI caused by severe influenza strains or other respiratory infections in future.

A year of pandemic: Levels, changes and validity of well-being data from Twitter. Evidence from ten countries

We use daily happiness scores (Gross National Happiness (GNH)) to illustrate how happiness changed throughout 2020 in ten countries across Europe and the Southern hemisphere. More frequently and regularly available than survey data, the GNH reveals how happiness sharply declined at the onset of the pandemic and lockdown, quickly recovered, and then trended downward throughout much of the year in Europe. GNH is derived by applying sentiment and emotion analysis-based on Natural Language Processing using machine learning algorithms-to Twitter posts (tweets). Using a similar approach, we generate another 11 variables: eight emotions and three new context-specific variables, in particular: trust in national institutions, sadness in relation to loneliness, and fear concerning the economy. Given the novelty of the dataset, we use multiple methods to assess validity. We also assess the correlates of GNH. The results indicate that GNH is negatively correlated with new COVID-19 cases, containment policies, and disgust and positively correlated with staying at home, surprise, and generalised trust. Altogether the analyses indicate tools based on Big Data, such as the GNH, offer relevant data that often fill information gaps and can valuably supplement traditional tools. In this case, the GNH results suggest that both the severity of the pandemic and containment policies negatively correlated with happiness.

Examining operational efficiency with prudent risks of Covid-19: a contextual DEA analysis with an undesirable intermediate measure

In the wake of the losses of human lives and disruption to the world economy caused by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become imperative to assess the effectiveness of containment strategies adopted by countries. The success of any containment strategy of achieving low mortality and high recovery rate depends on the efficient utilization of available but limited resources, such as number of hospital beds and healthcare workers. While the spreading pattern of the pandemic has been researched heavily, there is limited research that comprehensively focuses on the efficient utilization of available resources to achieve the desired aims of low mortality and high recovery. In order to close this research gap, we employ a two-stage network data envelopment analysis (DEA) to identify the inefficiency in the process and resolve the resource constraints by considering medical and non-medical (administrative) interventions as two serial stages. The number of infected people is treated as the intermediate product, which is an undesirable output of the first stage and subsequently enters the second stage as an input. This network DEA model successfully addresses the conflict between the two stages over the handling of infected people and assesses the vulnerabilities of the countries against the transmission rates of the disease in the respective countries. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a well-coordinated plan for different government agencies to jointly mitigate the risk under constrained resources. The findings reveal that almost 60 % of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries have used their resources suboptimally and are producing, on average, almost half the amount of the maximum possible outputs. As a sizeable amount of inefficiency can be explained by varying economic and demographic factors, such as health expenditure and the proportion of the aged population, the efficiency evaluation has been revisited with adjustments for unfavorable externalities. The analysis and its implications can help policymakers formulate optimal resource plans and identify potential areas for improvement.

Impact of COVID-19 Containment Measures on Unemployment: A Multi-country Analysis Using a Difference-in-Differences Framework

BACKGROUND

At the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, countries resorted to containment measures to stem the spread of the disease. In this paper, we have conducted a global study using a sample of 46 countries to evaluate whether these containment measures resulted in unemployment.

METHODS

We use a difference-in-differences (DID) specification with a heterogenous intervention to show the varying intensity effect of containment measures on unemployment, on a sample of 46 countries. We explain variations in unemployment from January-June 2020 using stringency of containment measures, controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation rate, exports, cases of COVID-19 per million, COVID-19-specific fiscal spending, time fixed effects, region fixed effects, and region trends. We conduct further subset analyses by COVID-cases quintiles and gross national income (GNI) per capita quintiles.

RESULTS

The median level of containment stringency in our sample was 43.7. Our model found that increasing stringency to this level would result in unemployment increasing by 1.87 percentage points (or 1.67 pp, after controlling for confounding). For countries with below median COVID-19 cases and below median GNI per capita, this effect is larger.

CONCLUSION

Containment measures have a strong impact on unemployment. This effect is larger in poorer countries and countries with low COVID-19 cases. Given that unemployment has profound effects on mortality and morbidity, this consequence of containment measures may compound the adverse health effects of the pandemic for the most vulnerable groups. It is necessary for governments to consider this in future pandemic management, and to attempt to alleviate the impact of containment measures via effective fiscal spending.

Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

BACKGROUND

Viral epidemics or pandemics of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) pose a global threat. Examples are influenza (H1N1) caused by the H1N1pdm09 virus in 2009, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Antiviral drugs and vaccines may be insufficient to prevent their spread. This is an update of a Cochrane Review last published in 2020. We include results from studies from the current COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of acute respiratory viruses.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and two trials registers in October 2022, with backwards and forwards citation analysis on the new studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs investigating physical interventions (screening at entry ports, isolation, quarantine, physical distancing, personal protection, hand hygiene, face masks, glasses, and gargling) to prevent respiratory virus transmission.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 11 new RCTs and cluster-RCTs (610,872 participants) in this update, bringing the total number of RCTs to 78. Six of the new trials were conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic; two from Mexico, and one each from Denmark, Bangladesh, England, and Norway. We identified four ongoing studies, of which one is completed, but unreported, evaluating masks concurrent with the COVID-19 pandemic. Many studies were conducted during non-epidemic influenza periods. Several were conducted during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and others in epidemic influenza seasons up to 2016. Therefore, many studies were conducted in the context of lower respiratory viral circulation and transmission compared to COVID-19. The included studies were conducted in heterogeneous settings, ranging from suburban schools to hospital wards in high-income countries; crowded inner city settings in low-income countries; and an immigrant neighbourhood in a high-income country. Adherence with interventions was low in many studies. The risk of bias for the RCTs and cluster-RCTs was mostly high or unclear. Medical/surgical masks compared to no masks We included 12 trials (10 cluster-RCTs) comparing medical/surgical masks versus no masks to prevent the spread of viral respiratory illness (two trials with healthcare workers and 10 in the community). Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza-like illness (ILI)/COVID-19 like illness compared to not wearing masks (risk ratio (RR) 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84 to 1.09; 9 trials, 276,917 participants; moderate-certainty evidence. Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza/SARS-CoV-2 compared to not wearing masks (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.42; 6 trials, 13,919 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported (very low-certainty evidence). N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks We pooled trials comparing N95/P2 respirators with medical/surgical masks (four in healthcare settings and one in a household setting). We are very uncertain on the effects of N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks on the outcome of clinical respiratory illness (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.10; 3 trials, 7779 participants; very low-certainty evidence). N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks may be effective for ILI (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.03; 5 trials, 8407 participants; low-certainty evidence). Evidence is limited by imprecision and heterogeneity for these subjective outcomes. The use of a N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks probably makes little or no difference for the objective and more precise outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.34; 5 trials, 8407 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Restricting pooling to healthcare workers made no difference to the overall findings. Harms were poorly measured and reported, but discomfort wearing medical/surgical masks or N95/P2 respirators was mentioned in several studies (very low-certainty evidence).  One previously reported ongoing RCT has now been published and observed that medical/surgical masks were non-inferior to N95 respirators in a large study of 1009 healthcare workers in four countries providing direct care to COVID-19 patients.  Hand hygiene compared to control Nineteen trials compared hand hygiene interventions with controls with sufficient data to include in meta-analyses. Settings included schools, childcare centres and homes. Comparing hand hygiene interventions with controls (i.e. no intervention), there was a 14% relative reduction in the number of people with ARIs in the hand hygiene group (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.90; 9 trials, 52,105 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), suggesting a probable benefit. In absolute terms this benefit would result in a reduction from 380 events per 1000 people to 327 per 1000 people (95% CI 308 to 342). When considering the more strictly defined outcomes of ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza, the estimates of effect for ILI (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.09; 11 trials, 34,503 participants; low-certainty evidence), and laboratory-confirmed influenza (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.30; 8 trials, 8332 participants; low-certainty evidence), suggest the intervention made little or no difference. We pooled 19 trials (71, 210 participants) for the composite outcome of ARI or ILI or influenza, with each study only contributing once and the most comprehensive outcome reported. Pooled data showed that hand hygiene may be beneficial with an 11% relative reduction of respiratory illness (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94; low-certainty evidence), but with high heterogeneity. In absolute terms this benefit would result in a reduction from 200 events per 1000 people to 178 per 1000 people (95% CI 166 to 188). Few trials measured and reported harms (very low-certainty evidence). We found no RCTs on gowns and gloves, face shields, or screening at entry ports.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The high risk of bias in the trials, variation in outcome measurement, and relatively low adherence with the interventions during the studies hampers drawing firm conclusions. There were additional RCTs during the pandemic related to physical interventions but a relative paucity given the importance of the question of masking and its relative effectiveness and the concomitant measures of mask adherence which would be highly relevant to the measurement of effectiveness, especially in the elderly and in young children. There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. The low to moderate certainty of evidence means our confidence in the effect estimate is limited, and that the true effect may be different from the observed estimate of the effect. The pooled results of RCTs did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks. There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection. Hand hygiene is likely to modestly reduce the burden of respiratory illness, and although this effect was also present when ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza were analysed separately, it was not found to be a significant difference for the latter two outcomes. Harms associated with physical interventions were under-investigated. There is a need for large, well-designed RCTs addressing the effectiveness of many of these interventions in multiple settings and populations, as well as the impact of adherence on effectiveness, especially in those most at risk of ARIs.

Supporting children's health needs: an analysis of paid leave policies in 193 countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the extent to which national laws and policies shape public health and economic security. Paid leave policies enable parents to meet children's health needs while maintaining job and income security. These policies matter immensely to children's health every year. Yet, little is known about the extent to which policies exist to support the full range of childhood health needs. Using a novel dataset constructed from legislative text in 193 countries, this study assesses whether laws in place in 2019 are adequate to support meeting children's everyday, serious, and disability-related health needs. Globally, only half of the countries guaranteed working parents access to any paid leave that could be used to meet children's health needs. Only a third addressed everyday health needs, including leave that matters to reducing infectious disease spread. For serious health needs, even when paid leave was available, it was often too short for complex health conditions. Moreover, although all children require parental presence at medical appointments and for serious illness, fewer countries guaranteed paid leave to care for older children than younger. Addressing these gaps is crucial to supporting child health and working families during times of public health crisis and every year.

Adverse Effects of Sinopharm COVID-19 Vaccine among Vaccinated Medical Students and Health Care Workers

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease caused a highly problematic situation worldwide. Various vaccines were launched to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to investigate the adverse effects of first and second doses of the Sinopharm vaccine among vaccinated medical and dental students and healthcare workers. A well-established questionnaire was distributed online, and 414 medical and dental students and healthcare workers (HCW) comprising 355 females (85.7%) and 59 males (14.3%) participated; all were vaccinated with two doses of Sinopharm. The most common side effect was pain at the injection site after dose one in 253 respondents (61.3%) and after dose two in 161 respondents (38.9%). Other symptoms included general lethargy in 168 (40.6%), myalgia/body pain in 99 (23.9%), low-grade fever in 93 (22.4%), and headache in 87 (21%) respondents. Common side effects reported after the second dose of the vaccine following pain at the injection site included general lethargy in 21.3% (88), headache in 10.4% (43), myalgia/body pain in 9.9% (41), and low-grade fever in 6.1% (25) of the respondents. In conclusion, common adverse effects of the Sinopharm vaccine were pain at the injection site, general lethargy, myalgia, body pain, low-grade fever, and headache. These adverse effects were mild in intensity for both doses but slightly more frequent and severe for the first dose than the second dose.

Coupling the Within-Host Process and Between-Host Transmission of COVID-19 Suggests Vaccination and School Closures are Critical

Most models of COVID-19 are implemented at a single micro or macro scale, ignoring the interplay between immune response, viral dynamics, individual infectiousness and epidemiological contact networks. Here we develop a data-driven model linking the within-host viral dynamics to the between-host transmission dynamics on a multilayer contact network to investigate the potential factors driving transmission dynamics and to inform how school closures and antiviral treatment can influence the epidemic. Using multi-source data, we initially determine the viral dynamics and estimate the relationship between viral load and infectiousness. Then, we embed the viral dynamics model into a four-layer contact network and formulate an agent-based model to simulate between-host transmission. The results illustrate that the heterogeneity of immune response between children and adults and between vaccinated and unvaccinated infections can produce different transmission patterns. We find that school closures play a significant effect on mitigating the pandemic as more adults get vaccinated and the virus mutates. If enough infected individuals are diagnosed by testing before symptom onset and then treated quickly, the transmission can be effectively curbed. Our multiscale model reveals the critical role played by younger individuals and antiviral treatment with testing in controlling the epidemic.

Psychological Distress, Fear and Coping Strategies among Hong Kong People During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to potential adverse effects on the mental health status of a wide range of people. This study aimed to identify factors associated with psychological distress, fear and coping strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among general population in Hong Kong. Psychological distress was assessed using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale; level of fear was evaluated using the Fear of COVID-19 scale; and coping strategies were assessed using the Brief Resilient Coping Scale. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify key factors associated with these mental health variables. Of the 555 participants, 53.9% experienced moderate to very high levels of psychological distress, 31.2% experienced a high level of fear of COVID-19, and 58.6% showed moderate to high resilient coping. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that living with family members, current alcohol consumption, and higher level of fear were associated with higher levels of psychological distress; perceived stress due to a change in employment condition, being a frontline worker, experiencing 'moderate to very high' distress, and healthcare service use to overcome the COVID-19 related stress in past 6 months were associated with a higher level of fear; and perceived better mental health status was associated with a moderate to high resilient coping. This study identified key factors associated with distress, fear and coping strategies during the pandemic in Hong Kong. Mental health support strategies should be provided continuously to prevent the mental impact of the pandemic from turning into long-term illness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-021-02338-7.

The effectiveness of social distancing in reducing transmission during influenza epidemics: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Social distance practices are crucial for outpatient clinics during disease outbreaks and are an effective preventive measure for reducing influenza transmission during such pandemics in people with poor health.

METHODS

This study applies an evidence-based practice (EBP) approach to confirm the effectiveness of social distancing in healthy individuals during an influenza pandemic and employs the induced ordered weighted averaging model to confirm the effectiveness of EBP. The study design, validity, reliability, results, and generalizability focused on discussing three systematic reviews and two cohort studies via the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP). First, by introducing the patient, intervention, comparison, outcome (PICO) question; second, by establishing the five steps of EBP; third, by utilizing the CASP checklist for the appraisal; and finally, by presenting a conclusion.

RESULTS

According to the hierarchy of evidence, preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses retrieved five articles for addressing the PICO question. All the evidence demonstrates that social distancing is valuable during influenza pandemics among non-infected individuals. Precise, timely, and robust social distancing implementation can reduce the spread of infection, delay the epidemic peak, and ease the pressure on healthcare resources. Gatekeepers are responsible for guiding individuals through the implementation process for reducing influenza transmission, particularly in densely populated areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Social distance is crucial for outpatient clinics during an epidemic and effectively reduces the spread of infection, delay epidemic peaks, and eases pressure on healthcare resources.

The socio-economic effects of covid-19

Abstract The covid-19 epidemic has spread rapidly all around the world since December 8, 2019, from China, the world’s largest exporter of goods. The outbreak quickly spread throughout the countries, affecting the health sector, and causing economic, environmental, and social challenges. Therefore, the article discusses the impacts of covid-19, to provide a better understanding to the public and the researchers regarding its impact on the society, education, communication, and economy of infected countries. The study followed a qualitative case study approach, including literature review and document analysis. The review was done on a wide range of data sources including journal articles, books, government documents, newspaper articles, and policy reports. The covid-19 is rigorously disrupting the global economy and almost all countries are trying to slow down the spread of the disease by increasing the testing, facilitating treatments of infected patients, quarantining suspected cases via contact networks, implementing social distancing by restricting large gatherings, maintaining countrywide or partial lock down, and etc. However, these aspects are highly challenging to the maintenance of the society’s daily life and addressing difficulties raised by the public to implement correct strategies to face the pandemic situations globally is necessary.

Promoting social distancing and preventing panic buying during the epidemic of COVID-19: the contributions of people's psychological and behavioural factors

Objectives

COVID-19 disease has progressed to the level of a global pandemic. This study aimed to investigate people's psychological and behavioural responses to the COVID-19 epidemic and explore the predictors for social distancing and panic buying.

Methods

A 17-item questionnaire was developed and distributed randomly to people using social media. Descriptive statistics and one-way ANOVA were used to assess people's psychological and behavioural responses. Hierarchical regression was conducted to investigate the predictive effects of psychological and behavioural variables on reports of social distancing and panic buying respectively.

Results

Respondents reported a low degree of risk perception and risk beliefs with regard to being outside, and had moderate psychological stress and positive safeguarding behaviours for being outside. Respondents reported high concern regarding COVID-19 and tended to keep social distancing during the epidemic. They would panic-purchase food and supplies. In addition, psychological stress emerged as a very strong predictor for reporting COVID-19 concerns and panic buying. Furthermore, reported concerns about COVID-19 information sharing had a significant predictive influence on panic buying of food. Safeguarding behaviours for being outside had a significant predictive effect on respondents reported social distancing of cancelling outings. Reported concerns about COVID-19 were stronger predictors for reported social distancing.

Conclusion

It is important to relieve people's psychological stress and manage information sharing to control panic buying. In addition, we should promote adoption of safeguarding behaviours for being outside and emphasise the concerns with regard to COVID-19 to encourage people keep social distancing. Measures should be implemented according to the characteristics of the population.

Hesitation about coronavirus vaccines in healthcare professionals and general population in Spain

BACKGROUND

This study attempts to provide a picture of the hesitancy to vaccination against COVID-19 in Spain during the 2021 spring-autumn vaccination campaign, both in the general population and in healthcare professionals.

METHODS

The participants were recruited using social media such as Facebook and Twitter, in addition to the cooperation of health personnel contacted with the collaboration of medical scientific societies. A cross-sectional study was carried out that included the response of an online questionnaire. The data were collected from April 30 to September 26, 2021. To assess the different associations between variables to be measured, we fit Poisson regression models with robust variance.

RESULTS

Responses were obtained from 3,850 adults from the general population group and 502 health professionals. Of the overall sample, 48.6% of participants from the general population were vaccinated against COVID-19, whereas in the healthcare professionals, 94.8% were vaccinated. The prevalence of general population vaccination increased with age, and was higher in women than men. Most participants did not show a preference for any vaccine itself. However, the prevalence of people vaccinated with their preferred vaccine was higher for the ones vaccinated with Pfizer's vaccine. 6.5% of the general population reported being reticent to be vaccinated. People from younger age groups, people with lower educational levels and those who were not from a risk group showed greater reluctance to be vaccinated. No gender differences in reluctancy were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Health professionals were significantly less likely to refuse vaccination even though they had more doubts about the safety and efficacy of vaccines. On the other hand, younger people, those with a lower level of education and those who were not from a risk group were the most hesitant.

Behavioral and Dietary Habits That Could Influence Both COVID-19 and Non-Communicable Civilization Disease Prevention-What Have We Learned Up to Now?

The massive expansion of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has urged countries to introduce lockdowns and set restrictive actions worldwide. The focus of the studies was to determine how COVID-19 induces damage to the lungs in order to find an alternative or adjuvant therapy that could lead to preventing COVID-19 or at least ameliorating it. This paper aims to survey the literature and provide new insights into behavioral and dietary habits that could influence the prevention of COVID-19. Maintaining an adequate mental health status, sleep, and taking moderate exercise are often disrupted in the conditions of lockdown and are followed by weakened immunity. Mediterranean and vegetarian diets are superior to other eating patterns in terms of immunity boosting and fighting COVID-19. Our study showed how adequate hydration, green tea intake, and supplementation with vitamins D, C, and E can increase our chances of avoiding the infection and even help us sleep better. Another focus of the research was on determining what level of hygiene really increases one's chances of not contracting SARS-CoV-2, but this seems a little counter-intuitive at first. Since an immunocompromised state is a familiar predisposing factor for all contagious diseases, maintaining healthy behavioral and dietary habits could be a crucial step in boosting immunity and preventing COVID-19.