The COVID-19 Disease Burden in Germany in 2020—Years of Life Lost to Death and Disease Over the Course of the Pandemic

Temporal and spatial changes in the provision of mental health care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: a claims-based cohort study on patients with severe mental disorders

PURPOSE

Major lockdowns were imposed in Germany from March until May 2020 and from December 2020 until May 2021. We studied the influence of these lockdowns, the strain on intensive care units and the strictness of COVID-19-related containment strategies on the utilization of mental health care among patients with severe mental disorders.

METHODS

We used health insurance claims data to identify n = 736,972 patients with severe mental disorders shortly before the pandemic and n = 735,816 patients a year earlier. We applied entropy balancing to adjust for baseline differences by district. For a 12-month follow-up, we modeled monthly changes in utilization through meta-analytic models using both the COVID-19 stringency index and intensive care unit cases per 100,000 inhabitants as predictors. Our outcomes were changes in psychiatric hospital days and time treated by outpatient psychiatrists.

RESULTS

Psychiatric hospital days declined by at least 7.7% in all calender month during the pandemic. Peak reduction rates were observed in April (- 27.9%), May (- 22.3%) 2020 and January 2021 (- 18.3%). Utilization changes were associated with the stringency index and the second lockdown. Time treated by psychiatrists was shorter in April (- 16.2%) and May (- 11.5%) 2020 and in January 2021 (- 10.5%), which was partially offset by higher utilization in June and September 2020. These utilization changes were associated with the stringency index and the strain on intensive care units during both lockdowns.

CONCLUSION

Hospitals did not maintain the level of utilization during the pandemic, while outpatient psychiatrists adapted more quickly, presumably due to digital and telemedical care.

Estimating the disability adjusted life years associated with COVID-19 in Iran for the first 2 years of the pandemic

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on 11 March 2020. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality, allowing for comprehensive comparisons of the population. The purpose of this study was to estimate DALYs due to COVID-19 in Iran for the first 2 years of the pandemic.

Methods

DALYs were estimated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLLs) and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) associated with COVID-19 in Iran from 19 February 2020 to 20 March 2022. The life expectancy for COVID-19 YLL estimations was based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study.

Results

There were 15,639,243 outpatients and 1,170,602 hospitalized confirmed cases, of which 120,965 deaths were as a direct result of COVID-19. DALYs were estimated to be 2,376,552. Overall, YLL contributed to 99.34% of the DALYs, while the remaining 0.66% was attributed to YLD.

Conclusion

COVID-19 had a significant impact on population health in Iran during the first 2 years of the pandemic; this study provides a comprehensive depiction of COVID-19's burden and is helpful for comparing its impact with other diseases in the population and across populations.

The direct disease burden of COVID-19 in Belgium in 2020 and 2021

BACKGROUND

Burden of disease estimates have become important population health metrics over the past decade to measure losses in health. In Belgium, the disease burden caused by COVID-19 has not yet been estimated, although COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most important diseases. Therefore, the current study aims to estimate the direct COVID-19 burden in Belgium, observed despite policy interventions, during 2020 and 2021, and compare it to the burden from other causes.

METHODS

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) due to disease. DALYs allow comparing the burden of disease between countries, diseases, and over time. We used the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model for COVID-19 to estimate DALYs related to COVID-19. Estimates of person-years for (a) acute non-fatal disease states were calculated from a compartmental model, using Belgian seroprevalence, social contact, hospital, and intensive care admission data, (b) deaths were sourced from the national COVID-19 mortality surveillance, and (c) chronic post-acute disease states were derived from a Belgian cohort study.

RESULTS

In 2020, the total number of COVID-19 related DALYs was estimated at 253,577 [252,541 - 254,739], which is higher than in 2021, when it was 139,281 [136,704 - 142,306]. The observed COVID-19 burden was largely borne by the elderly, and over 90% of the burden was attributable to premature mortality (i.e., YLLs). In younger people, morbidity (i.e., YLD) contributed relatively more to the DALYs, especially in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out. Morbidity was mainly attributable to long-lasting post-acute symptoms.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in Belgium, especially in 2020, when COVID-19 would have been the main cause of disease burden if all other causes had maintained their 2019 level.

The estimated disease burden of COVID-19 in Japan from 2020 to 2021

BACKGROUND

To date, it is not fully understood to what extent COVID-19 has burdened society in Japan. This study aimed to estimate the total disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan during 2020-2021.

METHODS

We stratify disease burden estimates by age group and present it as absolute Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost and QALYs lost per 100,000 persons. The total estimated value of QALYs lost consists of (1) QALYs lost brought by deaths due to COVID-19, (2) QALYs lost brought by inpatient cases, (3) QALYs lost brought by outpatient cases, and (4) QALYs lost brought by long-COVID.

RESULTS

The total QALYs lost due to COVID-19 was estimated as 286,782 for two years, 114.0 QALYs per 100,000 population per year. 71.3% of them were explained by the burden derived from deaths. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the burden of outpatient cases was the most sensitive factor.

CONCLUSIONS

The large part of disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021 was derived from Wave 3, 4, and 5 and the proportion of QALYs lost due to morbidity in the total burden increased gradually. The estimated disease burden was smaller than that in other high-income countries. It will be our future challenge to take other indirect factors into consideration.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based COVID-19 health impact assessment: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The emergence of COVID-19 has resulted in health, socio-economic, and political crises. The overall health impact of this disease can be measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) which is the sum of the life years lost due to disability (YLDs) and the years life lost due to premature death (YLLs). The overarching objective of this systematic review was to identify the health burdens of COVID-19 and summarise the literature that can aid health regulators to make evidence-based decisions on COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

METHODS

This systematic review was conducted using the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. DALYs-based primary studies were collected from databases, manual searches, and included studies' references. The primary studies published in English language, conducted since the emergence of COVID-19, and using DALYs or its subsets (years life lost due to disability and/or years life lost due to premature death) as health impact metrics, were the inclusion criteria. The combined disability and mortality health impact of COVID-19 was measured in DALYs. The risk of bias due to literature selection, identification, and reporting processes was assessed using the Joanna Bridges Institute critical appraisal tool for cross-sectional studies, and the certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE Pro tool.

RESULT

Of the 1459 identified studies, twelve of them were eligible for inclusion in the review. The years life lost due to COVID-19 related mortality was dominant over the years life lost due to COVID-19 related disability (disability times from the onset of COVID-19 to recovery, from diseases occurrence to mortality, and the long-term consequences of COVID-19) in all included studies. The long-term consequence disability time and the pre-death disability time were not assessed by most of the reviewed articles.

CONCLUSION

The impact of COVID-19 on both the length and quality of life has been substantial and has been causing considerable health crises worldwide. The health burden of COVID-19 was greater than other infectious diseases. Further studies focussing on issues examining increasing preparedness for future pandemics, public sensitization, and multi-sectorial integration are recommended.

Cost-Benefit of Real-Time Multiplex PCR Testing of SARS-CoV-2 in German Hospitals

BACKGROUND

The current Omicron COVID-19 pandemic has significant morbidity worldwide.

OBJECTIVE

Assess the cost-benefit relation of implementing PCR point-of-care (POCT) COVID-19 testing in the emergency rooms (ERs) of German hospitals and in the case of inpatient admission due to other acute illnesses.

METHODS

A deterministic decision-analytic model simulated the incremental costs of using the Savanna® Multiplex RT-PCR test compared to using clinical judgement alone to confirm or exclude COVID-19 in adult patients in German ERs prior to hospitalization or just prior to discharge. Direct and indirect costs were evaluated from the hospital perspective. Nasal or nasopharyngeal swabs of patients suspected to have COVID-19 by clinical judgement, but without POCT, were sent to external labs for RT-PCR testing.

RESULTS

In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, assuming a COVID-19 prevalence ranging between 15.6-41.2% and a hospitalization rate between 4.3-64.3%, implementing the Savanna® test saved, on average, €107 as compared to applying the clinical-judgement-only strategy. A revenue loss of €735 can be avoided when SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients coming unplanned to the hospital due to other acute illnesses are excluded immediately by POCT.

CONCLUSIONS

Using highly sensitive and specific PCR-POCT in patients suspected of COVID-19 infection at German ERs may significantly reduce hospital expenditures.

The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions - Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach

Decisions on public health measures to contain a pandemic are often based on parameters such as expected disease burden and additional mortality due to the pandemic. Both pandemics and non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight pandemics, however, produce economic, social, and medical costs. The costs are, for example, caused by changes in access to healthcare, social distancing, and restrictions on economic activity. These factors indirectly influence health outcomes in the short- and long-term perspective. In a narrative review based on targeted literature searches, we develop a comprehensive perspective on the concepts available as well as the challenges of estimating the overall disease burden and the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions from both epidemiological and economic perspectives, particularly during the early part of a pandemic. We review the literature and discuss relevant components that need to be included when estimating the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review presents data sources and different forms of death counts, and discusses empirical findings on direct and indirect effects of the pandemic and interventions on disease burden as well as the distribution of health risks.

Role and Limits of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Delicate Transition from Pandemic Mitigation to Endemic Control

The recent surge of COVID-19 related to the Omicron variant emergence has thrown a harsh light upon epidemic control in the near future. This should lead the scientific and medical community to question the long-term vaccine strategy for SARS-CoV-2 control. We provide here a critical point of view regarding the virological evolution, epidemiological aspects, and immunological drivers for COVID-19 control, including a vaccination strategy. Overall, we need more innovations in vaccine development to reduce the COVID-19 burden long term. The most adequate answer might be better cooperation between universities, biotech and pharmaceutical companies

The estimated disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020, in disability-adjusted life-years

The impact of COVID-19 on population health is recognised as being substantial, yet few studies have attempted to quantify to what extent infection causes mild or moderate symptoms only, requires hospital and/or ICU admission, results in prolonged and chronic illness, or leads to premature death. We aimed to quantify the total disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020 using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, and to investigate how burden varies between age-groups and occupations. Using standard methods and diverse data sources (mandatory notifications, population-level seroprevalence, hospital and ICU admissions, registered COVID-19 deaths, and the literature), we estimated years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, DALY and DALY per 100,000 population due to COVID-19, excluding post-acute sequelae, stratified by 5-year age-group and occupation category. The total disease burden due to acute COVID-19 was 286,100 (95% CI: 281,700-290,500) DALY, and the per-capita burden was 1640 (95% CI: 1620-1670) DALY/100,000, of which 99.4% consisted of YLL. The per-capita burden increased steeply with age, starting from 60 to 64 years, with relatively little burden estimated for persons under 50 years old. SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated premature mortality was responsible for a considerable direct health burden in the Netherlands, despite extensive public health measures. DALY were much higher than for other high-burden infectious diseases, but lower than estimated for coronary heart disease. These findings are valuable for informing public health decision-makers regarding the expected COVID-19 health burden among population subgroups, and the possible gains from targeted preventative interventions.

Disability adjusted life years associated with COVID-19 in Denmark in the first year of the pandemic

Background

Burden of disease studies measure the public health impact of a disease in a society. The aim of this study was to quantify the direct burden of COVID-19 in the first 12 months of the epidemic in Denmark.

Methods

We collected national surveillance data on positive individuals for SARS-CoV-2 with RT-PCR, hospitalization data, and COVID-19 mortality reported in the period between 26^th of February, 2020 to 25^th of February, 2021. We calculated disability adjusted life years (DALYs) based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus COVID-19 model, which considers mild, severe, critical health states, and premature death. We conducted sensitivity analyses for two different death-registration scenarios, within 30 and 60 days after first positive test, respectively.

Results

We estimated that of the 211,823 individuals who tested positive to SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR in the one-year period, 124,163 (59%; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 112,782–133,857) had at least mild symptoms of disease. The total estimated disease burden was 30,180 DALYs (95% UI 30,126; 30,242), corresponding to 520 DALYs/100,000. The disease burden was higher in the age groups above 70 years of age, particularly in men. Years of life lost (YLL) contributed with more than 99% of total DALYs. The results of the scenario analysis showed that defining COVID-19-related fatalities as deaths registered up to 30 days after the first positive test led to a lower YLL estimate than when using a 60-days window.

Conclusion

COVID-19 led to a substantial public health impact in Denmark in the first full year of the epidemic. Our estimates suggest that it was the the sixth most frequent cause of YLL in Denmark in 2020. This impact will be higher when including the post-acute consequences of COVID-19 and indirect health outcomes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13694-9.

Burden of Disease of COVID-19: Strengthening the Collaboration for National Studies

Objectives

Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years.

Methods

The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021.

Results

National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic.

Discussion

Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Estimating the Direct Disability-Adjusted Life Years Associated With SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in the Republic of Ireland: The First Full Year

Objectives: Burden of Disease frameworks facilitate estimation of the health impact of diseases to be translated into a single measure, such as the Disability-Adjusted-Life-Year (DALY).

Methods: DALYs were calculated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) directly associated with COVID-19 in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) from 01 March 2020, to 28 February 2021. Life expectancy is based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study life tables for 2019.

Results: There were 220,273 confirmed cases with a total of 4,500 deaths as a direct result of COVID-19. DALYs were estimated to be 51,622.8 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UI] 50,721.7, 52,435.8). Overall, YLL contributed to 98.5% of the DALYs. Of total symptomatic cases, 6.5% required hospitalisation and of those hospitalised 10.8% required intensive care unit treatment. COVID-19 was likely to be the second highest cause of death over our study’s duration.

Conclusion: Estimating the burden of a disease at national level is useful for comparing its impact with other diseases in the population and across populations. This work sets out to standardise a COVID-19 BoD methodology framework for the RoI and comparable nations in the EU.

Prolonged viral shedding identified from external splints and intranasal packings in immediately cured COVID-19 patients with nasal fractures: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Our aim was to measure and compare prolonged viral shedding (PVS) identified from external splints (ES) and intranasal packings (IP) for isolated nasal fracture (INF) repair in immediately cured asymptomatic vs. mildly symptomatic COVID-19 patients (AS-COVID vs. MS-COVID).

METHODS

We designed a retrospective cohort study and enroled a sample of post-AS-COVID and post-MS-COVID patients, whose INF were treated at a German level 1 trauma centre. The primary predictor variable was COVID severity presurgery (AS-COVD vs. MS-COVID). The main outcome variable was PVS detected in ES/IP. Other study variables were separated into demographic, clinical, and operative. Descriptive, bi- and multivariate statistics were computed, and statistical significance was set at P≤ 0.05.

RESULTS

The study sample comprised 15 INF patients (53.3% females; 46.7% post-AS-COVID) with a mean age of 42.2 ± 22.7 years (range, 18-85). 13.3% ES and 53.3% IP were contaminated with SARS-CoV-2. However, only IP-contamination between the two cohorts reached statistical significance (P= 0.01; odds ratio, 0.02; 95% confidence interval, 0 to 0.47; Pearson's r= 0.73; post hoc power = 87.4%). Multiple linear regression models refuted the associations between PVS and the other parameters (i.e. age, gender, time to treatment, length of hospital stay, lengths of ES/IP placement).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a relative low sample size, our findings suggest PVS via endonasal materials removed from cured COVID-19 patients, especially those healed from MS-COVID. This PVS may trigger re-infection and surgical site infections and/or transmission to other humans, and thereby, requires further investigations.

Impact of physical activity on COVID-19-related symptoms and perception of physical performance, fatigue and exhaustion during stay-at-home orders

Objectives

The measures used to contain the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant reduction in physical activity. Due to the health benefits of exercise, recommendations were made for lockdown restrictions. Within the CoCo-Fakt study (Cologne-Corona counselling and support for index and contacts during the quarantine period), we aimed to determine how these recommendations were implemented, especially by individuals who were officially quarantined due to an infected persons (IPs) or as close contacts (CPs), and how this affected their physical and psychological condition.

Methods

From 12 December 2020 to 6 January 2021, all IPs and CPs registered by Cologne’s public health department up to the survey period were surveyed online. Of 10 547 people in the CoCo-Fakt sample, 8102 were integrated into the current analysis. In addition to demographic data, information regarding COVID-19-specific and persistent symptoms or conditions and their association with the amount and type of exercise and screen time before and during the quarantine were collected.

Results

Before quarantine, 66.9% of IPs and 69% of CPs were physically active; during quarantine, this decreased by 49.4% in IPs depending on the course of the disease and by 30.6% in CPs. Physically active IPs and CPs felt less exhausted and more fit during their quarantine periods than those who were inactive, with active IPs significantly less likely to report prolonged physical and psychological symptoms than their more sedentary counterparts.

Conclusion

Given the acute and long-term positive effects of exercise on quarantined individuals, corresponding recommendations should be communicated to those affected, especially CPs. Recommendations for IPs depend on their health status.

Asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic COVID-19 patients with craniomaxillofacial injuries have an increase risk of surgical site infection

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the association between ‘asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic’ severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (AS/MS-COVID) and surgical site infection (SSI) after repair of craniomaxillofacial injury (CMFI). Using a case-control study design with a match ratio of 1:4, we enrolled a cohort of AS/MS-COVID cases with immediately treated CMFI during a one-year period. The main predictor variable was SARS-CoV-2 infection (yes/no), and the outcome of interest was SSI (yes/no). The other variables were demographic, clinical, and operative. Appropriate statistics were computed, and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. The study group comprised 257 cases (28.8% female; 13.2% aged ≥ 60 years; 10.5% with fractures; 39.7% with involvement of nasal/oral/orbital tissue [viral reservoir organs, VROs]; 81.3% with blunt trauma; 19.1% developed an SSI [vs 6.8% in the control group]) with a mean (SD) age of 39.8 (16.6) years (range 19–87). There was a significant relation between SARS-CoV-2 infection and SSI events (p<0.0001; odds ratio 3.22; 95% confidence interval 2.17 to 4.78). On subgroup analysis, SSIs significantly increased with age ≥ 60 years, presence and treatment of fracture, contact with VROs, and prolonged antibiotic use (PAU). However, multivariate logistic regression analysis confirmed a positive effect only from old age, contact with VROs, and PAU (relative risk = 1.56, 2.52, and 2.03, respectively; r = 0.49; p = 0.0001). There was a significant 2.8-fold increase in SSIs among AS/MS-COVID cases, especially in those aged ≥ 60 years, or those with injuries to VROs, or both, who therefore required PAU.

Burden of COVID-19 Mortality and Morbidity in Poland in 2020

In 2020 COVID-19 caused 41,442 deaths in Poland. We aimed to estimate the burden of COVID-19 using years of potential life lost (YPLL) and quality-adjusted years of life lost (QALYL). YPLL were calculated by multiplying the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the analyzed age/sex group by the residual life expectancy for that group. Standard and country-specific (local) life tables were used to calculate SPYLL and LPYLL, respectively. QALYL were calculated adjusting LPYLL due to COVID-19 death by age/sex specific utility values. Deaths from COVID-19 in Poland in 2020 caused loss of 630,027 SPYLL, 436,361 LPYLL, and 270,572 QALYL. The loss was greater among men and rose with age reaching the maximum among men aged 65–69 and among women aged 70–74. Burden of COVID-19 in terms of YPLL is proportionate to external-cause deaths and was higher than the burden of disease in the respiratory system. Differential effects by sex and age indicate important heterogeneities in the mortality effects of COVID-19 and justifies policies based not only on age, but also on sex. Comparison with YPLL due to other diseases showed that mortality from COVID-19 represents a substantial burden on both society and on individuals in Poland.

Measuring disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to COVID-19 in Scotland, 2020

Background

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality and can enable comprehensive, and comparable, assessments of direct and indirect health harms due to COVID-19. Our aim was to estimate DALYs directly due to COVID-19 in Scotland, during 2020; and contextualise its population impact relative to other causes of disease and injury.

Methods

National deaths and daily case data were used. Deaths were based on underlying and contributory causes recorded on death certificates. We calculated DALYs based on the COVID-19 consensus model and methods outlined by the European Burden of Disease Network. DALYs were presented as a range, using a sensitivity analysis based on Years of Life Lost estimates using: cause-specific; and COVID-19 related deaths. All COVID-19 estimates were for 2020.

Results

In 2020, estimates of COVID-19 DALYs in Scotland ranged from 96,500 to 108,200. Direct COVID-19 DALYs were substantial enough to be framed as the second leading cause of disease and injury, with only ischaemic heart disease having a larger impact on population health. Mortality contributed 98% of total DALYs.

Conclusions

The direct population health impact of COVID-19 has been very substantial. Despite unprecedented mitigation efforts, COVID-19 developed from a single identified case in early 2020 to a condition with an impact in Scotland second only to ischaemic heart disease. Periodic estimation of DALYs during 2021, and beyond, will provide indications of the impact of DALYs averted due to the national rollout of the vaccination programme and other continued mitigation efforts, although new variants may pose significant challenges.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00862-x.

Groh A, S. Frick J, Vehreschild MJGT, U. Ludwig K. Genetic Predisposition and the Variable Course of Infectious Diseases

BACKGROUND

Contact with a pathogen is followed by variable courses of infectious disease, which are only partly explicable by classical risk factors. The susceptibility to infection is variable, as is the course of disease after infection. In this review, we discuss the extent to which this variation is due to genetic factors of the affected individual (the host).

METHODS

Selective review of the literature on host genetics in infectious disease, with special attention to the pathogens SARSCoV- 2, influenza viruses, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

RESULTS

Genetic variants of the host contribute to the pathogenesis of infectious diseases. For example, in HIV infection, a relatively common variant leading to a loss of function of the HIV co-receptor CCR5 affects the course of the disease, as do variants in genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. Rare monogenic variants of the interferon immune response system contribute to severe disease courses in COVID-19 and influenza (type I interferon in these two cases) and in tuberculosis (type II interferon). An estimated 1.8% of life-threatening courses of COVID-19 in men under age 60 are caused by a deficiency of toll-like receptor 7. The scientific understanding of host genetic factors has already been beneficial to the development of effective drugs. In a small number of cases, genetic information has also been used for individual therapeutic decision-making and for the identification of persons at elevated risk.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive understanding of host genetics can improve the care of patients with infectious diseases. Until the present, the clinical utility of host genetics has been limited to rare cases; in the future, polygenic risk scores summarizing the relevant genetic variants in each patient will enable a wider benefit. To make this possible, multicenter studies are needed that will systematically integrate clinical and genetic data.

Is Mandatory Vaccination in Population over 60 Adequate to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic in E.U.?

Vaccine hesitancy, which potentially leads to the refusal or delayed acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, is considered a key driver of the increasing death toll from the pandemic in the EU. The European Commission and several member states’ governments are either planning or have already directly or indirectly announced mandatory vaccination for individuals aged over 60, the group which has repeatedly proved to be the most vulnerable. In this paper, an assessment of this strategy’s benefits is attempted by deriving a metric for the potential gains of vaccination mandates that can be used to compare EU member states. This is completed by examining the reduction in Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL) per person for the EU population over 60 as a function of the member states’ vaccination percentage in these ages. The publicly available data and results of the second iteration of the SHARE COVID-19 survey on the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted during the summer of 2021, are used as inputs.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to the direct health impact of COVID-19 in India, 2020

COVID-19 has affected all countries. Its containment represents a unique challenge for India due to a large population (> 1.38 billion) across a wide range of population densities. Assessment of the COVID-19 disease burden is required to put the disease impact into context and support future pandemic policy development. Here, we present the national-level burden of COVID-19 in India in 2020 that accounts for differences across urban and rural regions and across age groups. Input data were collected from official records or published literature. The proportion of excess COVID-19 deaths was estimated using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Washington data. Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to COVID-19 were estimated in the Indian population in 2020, comprised of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). YLL was estimated by multiplying the number of deaths due to COVID-19 by the residual standard life expectancy at the age of death due to the disease. YLD was calculated as a product of the number of incident cases of COVID-19, disease duration and disability weight. Scenario analyses were conducted to account for excess deaths not recorded in the official data and for reported COVID-19 deaths. The direct impact of COVID-19 in 2020 in India was responsible for 14,100,422 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 14,030,129–14,213,231) DALYs, consisting of 99.2% (95% UI 98.47–99.64%) YLLs and 0.80% (95% UI 0.36–1.53) YLDs. DALYs were higher in urban (56%; 95% UI 56–57%) than rural areas (44%; 95% UI 43.4–43.6) and in men (64%) than women (36%). In absolute terms, the highest DALYs occurred in the 51–60-year-old age group (28%) but the highest DALYs per 100,000 persons were estimated for the 71–80 years old age group (5481; 95% UI 5464–5500 years). There were 4,815,908 (95% UI 4,760,908–4,924,307) DALYs after considering reported COVID-19 deaths only. The DALY estimations have direct and immediate implications not only for public policy in India, but also internationally given that India represents one sixth of the world’s population.

Regional responsibility and coordination of appropriate inpatient care capacities for patients with COVID-19 - the German DISPENSE model

As of late 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a challenge to health care systems worldwide. Rapidly rising local COVID-19 incidence rates, result in demand for high hospital and intensive care bed capacities on short notice. A detailed up-to-date regional surveillance of the dynamics of the pandemic, precise prediction of required inpatient capacities of care as well as a centralized coordination of the distribution of regional patient fluxes is needed to ensure optimal patient care. In March 2020, the German federal state of Saxony established three COVID-19 coordination centers located at each of its maximum care hospitals, namely the University Hospitals Dresden and Leipzig and the hospital Chemnitz. Each center has coordinated inpatient care facilities for the three regions East, Northwest and Southwest Saxony with 36, 18 and 29 hospital sites, respectively. Fed by daily data flows from local public health authorities capturing the dynamics of the pandemic as well as daily reports on regional inpatient care capacities, we established the information and prognosis tool DISPENSE. It provides a regional overview of the current pandemic situation combined with daily prognoses for up to seven days as well as outlooks for up to 14 days of bed requirements. The prognosis precision varies from 21% and 38% to 12% and 15% relative errors in normal ward and ICU bed demand, respectively, depending on the considered time period. The deployment of DISPENSE has had a major positive impact to stay alert for the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and to allocate resources as needed. The application of a mathematical model to forecast required bed capacities enabled concerted actions for patient allocation and strategic planning. The ad-hoc implementation of these tools substantiates the need of a detailed data basis that enables appropriate responses, both on regional scales in terms of clinic resource planning and on larger scales concerning political reactions to pandemic situations.

Inanimate surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 during midfacial fracture repair in asymptomatic COVID-19 patients

Purposes

To evaluate inanimate surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 during midfacial fracture repair (MFR) and to identify relevant aggregating factors.

Methods

Using a prospective non-randomised comparative study design, we enrolled a cohort of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients undergoing MFR. The predictor variables were osteofixation system (conventional titanium plates [CTiP] vs. ultrasound-assisted resorbable plates [USaRP]). The main outcomes were the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on four different surfaces. Other study variables were categorised into demographic, anatomical, and operative. Descriptive, bi- and multivariate statistics were computed.

Results

The sample consisted of 11 patients (27.3% females, 63.6% right side, 72.7% displaced fractures) with a mean age of 52.7 ± 20.1 years (range, 19–85). Viral spread was, on average, 1.9 ± 0.4 m. from the operative field, including most oral and orbital retractors’ tips (81.8% and 72.7%) and no virus was found at 3 m from the operative field, but no significant difference was found between 2 osteofixation types. On binary adjustments, significantly broader contamination was linked to centrolateral MFR (P = 0.034; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05 to 1.02), and displaced MFR > 45 min (P = 0.022; 95% CI, 0.1 to 1.03).

Conclusions

USaRP, albeit presumably heavily aerosol-producing, cause similar SARS-CoV-2 distribution to CTiP. Non-surgical operating room (OR) staff should stay ≥ 3 m from the operative field, if the patient is SARS-CoV-2-positive. Enoral and orbital instruments are a potential virus source, especially during displaced MFR > 45 min and/or centrolateral MFR, emphasising an importance of appropriate patient screening and OR organisation.

Decrease in life expectancy due to COVID-19 disease not offset by reduced environmental impacts associated with lockdowns in Italy

The consequence of the lockdowns implemented to address the COVID-19 pandemic on human health damage due to air pollution and other environmental issues must be better understood. This paper analyses the effect of reducing energy demand on the evolution of environmental impacts during the occurrence of 2020-lockdown periods in Italy, with a specific focus on life expectancy. An energy metabolism analysis is conducted based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) of all monthly energy consumptions, by sector, category and province area in Italy between January 2015 to December 2020. Results show a general decrease (by ∼5% on average) of the LCA midpoint impact categories (global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, fine particulate matter formation, etc.) over the entire year 2020 when compared to past years. These avoided impacts, mainly due to reductions in fossil energy consumptions, are meaningful during the first lockdown phase between March and May 2020 (by ∼21% on average). Regarding the LCA endpoint damage on human health, ∼66 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per 100,000 inhabitants are estimated to be saved. The analysis shows that the magnitude of the officially recorded casualties is substantially larger than the estimated gains in human lives due to the environmental impact reductions. Future research could therefore investigate the complex cause-effect relationships between the deaths occurred in 2020 imputed to COVID-19 disease and co-factors other than the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Collateral effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on oncologic surgery in Bavaria

Background

The ongoing SARS-COV-2 pandemic has severe implications for people and healthcare systems everywhere. In Germany, worry about the consequences of the pandemic led to the deferral of non-emergency surgeries. Tumor surgery accounts for a large volume in the field of visceral surgery and cannot be considered purely elective. It is not known how the SARS-COV-2 pandemic has changed the surgical volume in tumor patients.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of the amount of oncological surgeries in three academic visceral surgery departments in Bavaria, Germany, in 2020. Procedures were split into subgroups: Upper Gastrointestinal (Upper GI), Colorectal, Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary (HPB), Peritoneal and Endocrine. Procedures in 2020 were compared to a reference period from January 1st, 2017 to December 31st 2019. Surgical volume was graphically merged with SARS-COV-2 incidence and the number of occupied ICU beds.

Results

Surgical volume decreased by 7.6% from an average of 924 oncologic surgeries from 2017 to 2019 to 854 in 2020. The decline was temporally associated with the incidence of infections and ICU capacity. Surgical volume did not uniformly increase to pre-pandemic levels in the months following the first pandemic wave with lower SARS-COV-2 incidence and varied according to local incidence levels. The decline was most pronounced in colorectal surgery where procedures declined on average by 26% following the beginning of the pandemic situation.

Conclusion

The comparison with pre-pandemic years showed a decline in oncologic surgeries in 2020, which could have an impact on lost life years in non-COVID-19 patients. This decline was very different in subgroups which could not be solely explained by the pandemic.

Prospective postmortem evaluation of 735 consecutive SARS-CoV-2-associated death cases

Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has become a global pandemic with significant mortality. Accurate information on the specific circumstances of death and whether patients died from or with SARS-CoV-2 is scarce. To distinguish COVID-19 from non-COVID-19 deaths, we performed a systematic review of 735 SARS-CoV-2-associated deaths in Hamburg, Germany, from March to December 2020, using conventional autopsy, ultrasound-guided minimally invasive autopsy, postmortem computed tomography and medical records. Statistical analyses including multiple logistic regression were used to compare both cohorts. 84.1% (n = 618) were classified as COVID-19 deaths, 6.4% (n = 47) as non-COVID-19 deaths, 9.5% (n = 70) remained unclear. Median age of COVID-19 deaths was 83.0 years, 54.4% were male. In the autopsy group (n = 283), the majority died of pneumonia and/or diffuse alveolar damage (73.6%; n = 187). Thromboses were found in 39.2% (n = 62/158 cases), pulmonary embolism in 22.1% (n = 56/253 cases). In 2020, annual mortality in Hamburg was about 5.5% higher than in the previous 20 years, of which 3.4% (n = 618) represented COVID-19 deaths. Our study highlights the need for mortality surveillance and postmortem examinations. The vast majority of individuals who died directly from SARS-CoV-2 infection were of advanced age and had multiple comorbidities.

The Burden of COPD Due to Ozone Exposure in Germany

BACKGROUND

The chronic effects of ozone have only rarely been investigated in disease burden studies to date. Our goal was to determine this disease burden in Germany over the period 2007-2016, with particular attention to estimation based on effect estimates adjusted for particulate matter (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂).

METHODS

The nationwide, high-spatial-resolution (2 km × 2 km), population-based exposure to ozone in the summer months ("summer ozone") was calculated on the basis of modeled ozone data and population counts in Germany. Next, risk estimates derived from cohort studies were used to quantify the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Data on population counts, life expectancy, and mortality in Germany were used to reflect the situation across the country as accurately as possible.

RESULTS

The estimates of years of life lost (YLL) due to summer ozone ranged from 18.33 per 100 000 people (95% confidence interval [14.02; 22.08]) in 2007 to 35.77 per 100 000 people [27.45; 42.98] in 2015. These findings indicate that ozone affects the COPD burden independently of other harmful components of the air. No clear secular trend in the COPD burden can be seen over the period 2007 to 2016.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to ozone contributes to the COPD burden among the general population in Germany. As climate change may lead to a rise in the ozone concentration, more intensive research is required on the effects of ozone on health.

Different approaches to quantify years of life lost from COVID-19

The burden of an epidemic is often characterized by death counts, but this can be misleading as it fails to acknowledge the age of the deceased patients. Years of life lost is therefore widely used as a more relevant metric, however, such calculations in the context of COVID-19 are all biased upwards: patients dying from COVID-19 are typically multimorbid, having far worse life expectation than the general population. These questions are quantitatively investigated using a unique Hungarian dataset that contains individual patient level data on comorbidities for all COVID-19 deaths in the country. To account for the comorbidities of the patients, a parametric survival model using 11 important long-term conditions was used to estimate a more realistic years of life lost. As of 12 May, 2021, Hungary reported a total of 27,837 deaths from COVID-19 in patients above 50 years of age. The usual calculation indicates 10.5 years of life lost for each death, which decreases to 9.2 years per death after adjusting for 11 comorbidities. The expected number of years lost implied by the life table, reflecting the mortality of a developed country just before the pandemic is 11.1 years. The years of life lost due to COVID-19 in Hungary is therefore 12% or 1.3 years per death lower when accounting for the comorbidities and is below its expected value, but how this should be interpreted is still a matter of debate. Further research is warranted on how to optimally integrate this information into epidemiologic risk assessments during a pandemic.