Higher thermal plasticity in flowering phenology increases flowering output

Ongoing climate change poses an increasing threat to biodiversity. To avoid decline or extinction, species need to either adjust or adapt to new environmental conditions or track their climatic niches across space. In sessile organisms such as plants, phenotypic plasticity can help maintain fitness in variable and even novel environmental conditions and is therefore likely to play an important role in allowing them to survive climate change, particularly in the short term. Understanding a species' response to rising temperature is crucial for planning well-targeted and cost-effective conservation measures. We sampled seeds of three Hypericum species (H. maculatum, H. montanum, and H. perforatum), from a total of 23 populations originating from different parts of their native distribution areas in Europe. We grew them under four different temperature regimes in a greenhouse to simulate current and predicted future climatic conditions in the distribution areas. We measured flowering start, flower count, and subsequent seed weight, allowing us to study variations in the thermal plasticity of flowering phenology and its relation to fitness. Our results show that individuals flowered earlier with increasing temperature, while the degree of phenological plasticity varied among species. More specifically, the plasticity of H. maculatum varied depending on population origin, with individuals from the leading range edge being less plastic. Importantly, we show a positive relationship between higher plasticity and increased flower production, indicating adaptive phenological plasticity. The observed connection between plasticity and fitness supports the idea that plasticity may be adaptive. This study underlines the need for information on plasticity for predicting species' potential to thrive under global change and the need for studies on whether higher phenotypic plasticity is currently being selected as natural populations experience a rapidly changing climate.

Multispecies deep learning using citizen science data produces more informative plant community models

In the age of big data, scientific progress is fundamentally limited by our capacity to extract critical information. Here, we map fine-grained spatiotemporal distributions for thousands of species, using deep neural networks (DNNs) and ubiquitous citizen science data. Based on 6.7 M observations, we jointly model the distributions of 2477 plant species and species aggregates across Switzerland with an ensemble of DNNs built with different cost functions. We find that, compared to commonly-used approaches, multispecies DNNs predict species distributions and especially community composition more accurately. Moreover, their design allows investigation of understudied aspects of ecology. Including seasonal variations of observation probability explicitly allows approximating flowering phenology; reweighting predictions to mirror cover-abundance allows mapping potentially canopy-dominant tree species nationwide; and projecting DNNs into the future allows assessing how distributions, phenology, and dominance may change. Given their skill and their versatility, multispecies DNNs can refine our understanding of the distribution of plants and well-sampled taxa in general.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Bringing traits back into the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts. First, we discuss the relevant theory linking species traits to range shift processes at the leading (expansion) and trailing (contraction) edges of species distributions and highlight the need to clarify the mechanistic basis of trait-based approaches. Second, we provide a brief overview of range shift-trait studies and identify new opportunities for trait integration that consider range-specific processes and intraspecific variability. Third, we explore the circumstances under which environmental and biotic context dependencies are likely to affect our ability to identify the contribution of species traits to range shift processes. Finally, we propose that revealing the role of traits in shaping species redistribution may likely require accounting for methodological variation arising from the range shift estimation process as well as addressing existing functional, geographical, and phylogenetic biases. We provide a series of considerations for more effectively integrating traits as well as extrinsic and methodological factors into species redistribution research. Together, these analytical approaches promise stronger mechanistic and predictive understanding that can help society mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

Identifying genetic variation associated with environmental gradients and drought-tolerance phenotypes in ponderosa pine

As climate changes, understanding the genetic basis of local adaptation in plants becomes an ever more pressing issue. Combining genotype-environment association (GEA) with genotype-phenotype association (GPA) analysis has an exciting potential to uncover the genetic basis of environmental responses. We use these approaches to identify genetic variants linked to local adaptation to drought in Pinus ponderosa. Over 4 million Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified using 223 individuals from across the Sierra Nevada of California. 927,740 (22.3%) SNPs were retained after filtering for proximity to genes and used in our association analyses. We found 1374 associated with five major climate variables, with the largest number (1151) associated with April 1st snowpack. We also conducted a greenhouse study with various drought-tolerance traits measured in first-year seedlings of a subset of the genotyped trees grown in the greenhouse. 796 SNPs were associated with control-condition trait values, while 1149 were associated with responsiveness of these traits to drought. While no individual SNPs were associated with both the environmental variables and the measured traits, several annotated genes were associated with both, particularly those involved in cell wall formation, biotic and abiotic stress responses, and ubiquitination. However, the functions of many of the associated genes have not yet been determined due to the lack of gene annotation information for conifers. Future studies are needed to assess the developmental roles and ecological significance of these unknown genes.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

High-performing plastic clones best explain the spread of yellow monkeyflower from lowland to higher elevation areas in New Zealand

The relative contribution of adaptation and phenotypic plasticity can vary between core and edge populations, with implications for invasive success. We investigated the spread of the invasive yellow monkeyflower, Erythranthe gutatta in New Zealand, where it is spreading from lowland agricultural land into high-elevation conservation areas. We investigated the extent of phenotypic variation among clones from across the South Island, looked for adaptation and compared degrees of plasticity among lowland core versus montane range-edge populations. We grew 34 clones and measured their vegetative and floral traits in two common gardens, one in the core range at 9 m a.s.l. and one near the range-edge at 560 m a.s.l. Observed trait variation was explained by a combination of genotypic diversity (as identified through common gardens) and high phenotypic plasticity. We found a subtle signature of local adaptation to lowland habitats but all clones were plastic and able to survive and reproduce in both gardens. In the range-edge garden, above-ground biomass was on average almost double and stolon length almost half that of the same clone in the core garden. Clones from low-elevation sites showed higher plasticity on average than those from higher elevation sites. The highest performing clones in the core garden were also top performers in the range-edge garden. These results suggest some highly fit general-purpose genotypes, possibly pre-adapted to New Zealand montane conditions, best explains the spread of E. gutatta from lowland to higher elevation areas.

Increased Plasticity in Invasive Populations of a Globally Invasive Cactus

Biological invasions pose global threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Invasive species often display a high degree of phenotypic plasticity, enabling them to adapt to new environments. This study examines plasticity to water stress in native and invasive Opuntia ficus-indica populations, a prevalent invader in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Through controlled greenhouse experiments, we evaluated three native and nine invasive populations. While all plants survived the dry treatment, natives exhibited lower plasticity to high water availability with only a 36% aboveground biomass increase compared to the invasives with a greater increase of 94%. In terms of belowground biomass, there was no significant response to increased water availability for native populations, but plants from the invasive populations showed a 75% increase from the dry to the wet treatment. Enhanced phenotypic plasticity observed in invasive populations of O. ficus-indica is likely a significant driver of their success and invasiveness across different regions, particularly with a clear environmental preference towards less arid conditions. Climate change is expected to amplify the invasion success due to the expansion of arid areas and desertification. Opuntia ficus-indica adapts to diverse environments, survives dry spells, and grows rapidly in times of high-water supply, making it a candidate for increased invasion potential with climate change.

The evolution of plasticity at geographic range edges

Phenotypic plasticity enables rapid responses to environmental change, and could facilitate range shifts in response to climate change. What drives the evolution of plasticity at range edges, and the capacity of range-edge individuals to be plastic, remain unclear. Here, we propose that accurately predicting when plasticity itself evolves or mediates adaptive evolution at expanding range edges requires integrating knowledge on the demography and evolution of edge populations. Our synthesis shows that: (i) the demography of edge populations can amplify or attenuate responses to selection for plasticity through diverse pathways, and (ii) demographic effects on plasticity are modified by the stability of range edges. Our spatially explicit synthesis for plasticity has the potential to improve predictions for range shifts with climate change.

Impacts of ocean warming on echinoderms: A meta-analysis

Rising ocean temperatures are threatening marine species and populations worldwide, and ectothermic taxa are particularly vulnerable. Echinoderms are an ecologically important phylum of marine ectotherms and shifts in their population dynamics can have profound impacts on the marine environment. The effects of warming on echinoderms are highly variable across controlled laboratory-based studies. Accordingly, synthesis of these studies will facilitate the better understanding of broad patterns in responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. Herein, a meta-analysis incorporating the results of 85 studies (710 individual responses) is presented, exploring the effects of warming on various performance predictors. The mean responses of echinoderms to all magnitudes of warming were compared across multiple biological responses, ontogenetic life stages, taxonomic classes, and regions, facilitated by multivariate linear mixed effects models. Further models were conducted, which only incorporated responses to warming greater than the projected end-of-century mean annual temperatures at the collection sites. This meta-analysis provides evidence that ocean warming will generally accelerate metabolic rate (+32%) and reduce survival (-35%) in echinoderms, and echinoderms from subtropical (-9%) and tropical (-8%) regions will be the most vulnerable. The relatively high vulnerability of echinoderm larvae to warming (-20%) indicates that this life stage may be a significant developmental bottleneck in the near-future, likely reducing successful recruitment into populations. Furthermore, asteroids appear to be the class of echinoderms that are most negatively affected by elevated temperature (-30%). When considering only responses to magnitudes of warming representative of end-of-century climate change projections, the negative impacts on asteroids, tropical species and juveniles were exacerbated (-51%, -34% and -40% respectively). The results of these analyses enable better predictions of how keystone and invasive echinoderm species may perform in a warmer ocean, and the possible consequences for populations, communities and ecosystems.

Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.

Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.

Stacked distribution models predict climate-driven loss of variation in leaf phenology at continental scales

Climate change is having profound effects on species distributions and is likely altering the distribution of genetic variation across landscapes. Maintaining population genetic diversity is essential for the survival of species facing rapid environmental change, and variation loss will further ecological and evolutionary change. We used trait values of spring foliar leaf-out phenology of 400 genotypes from three geographically isolated populations of Populus angustifolia grown under common conditions, in concert with stacked species distribution modeling, to ask: (a) How will climate change alter phenological variation across the P. angustifolia species-range, and within populations; and (b) will the distribution of phenological variation among and within populations converge (become more similar) in future climatic conditions? Models predicted a net loss of phenological variation in future climate scenarios on 20-25% of the landscape across the species’ range, with the trailing edge population losing variation on as much as 47% of the landscape. Our models also predicted that population’s phenological trait distributions will become more similar over time. This stacked distribution model approach allows for the identification of areas expected to experience the greatest loss of genetically based functional trait variation and areas that may be priorities to conserve as future genetic climate refugia.

Integrating stacked distribution models with genetically-based trait diversity of Populus angustifolia reveals how phenological variation can change differently across populations in response to climate change.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.

Maximization of fitness by phenological and phenotypic plasticity in range expanding rabbitfish (Siganidae)

Global warming is modifying the phenology, life‐history traits and biogeography of species around the world. Evidence of these effects have increased over recent decades; however, we still have a poor understanding of the possible outcomes of their interplay across global climatic gradients, hindering our ability to accurately predict the consequences of climate change in populations and ecosystems.

We examined the effect that changes in biogeography can have on the life‐history traits of two of the most successful range‐extending fish species in the world: the tropical rabbitfishes Siganus fuscescens and Siganus rivulatus. Both species have established abundant populations at higher latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres and have been identified as important ecological engineers with the potential to alter the community structure of seaweed forests (Laminariales and Fucales) in temperate regions.

Life‐history trait information from across their global distribution was compiled from the published literature and meta‐analyses were conducted to assess changes in (i) the onset and duration of reproductive periods, (ii) size at maturity, (iii) fecundity, (iv) growth rates, (v) maximum body sizes and (vi) longevity in populations at the leading edge of range expansion in relation to sea surface temperature and primary productivity (a common proxy for nutritional resource levels).

Populations at highest latitudes had shortened their reproductive periods and reduced growth rates, taking longer to reach sexual maturity and maximum sizes, but compensated this with higher fecundity per length class and longer lifespans than populations in warmer environments. Low primary productivity and temperature in the Mediterranean Sea resulted in lower growth rates and body sizes for S. rivulatus, but also lower length at maturity, increasing life‐time reproductive output.

The results suggest that plasticity in the phenology and life‐history traits of range‐expanding species would be important to enhance their fitness in high latitude environments, facilitating their persistence and possible further poleward expansions. Quantifying the magnitude and direction of these responses can improve our understanding and ability to forecast species redistributions and its repercussions in the functioning of temperate ecosystems.

Plastic and quantitative genetic divergence mirror environmental gradients among wild, fragmented populations of Impatiens capensis

PREMISE

Habitat fragmentation generates molecular genetic divergence among isolated populations, but few studies have assessed phenotypic divergence and fitness in populations where the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation are known. Phenotypic divergence could reflect plasticity, local adaptation, and/or genetic drift.

METHODS

We examined patterns and potential drivers of phenotypic divergence among 12 populations of jewelweed (Impatiens capensis) that show strong molecular genetic signals of isolation and drift among fragmented habitats. We measured morphological and reproductive traits in both maternal plants within natural populations and their self-fertilized progeny grown together in a common garden. We also quantified environmental divergence between home sites and the common garden.

RESULTS

Populations with less molecular genetic variation expressed less maternal phenotypic variation. Progeny in the common garden converged in phenotypes relative to their wild mothers but retained among-population differences in morphology, survival, and reproduction. Among-population phenotypic variance was 3-10× greater in home sites than in the common garden for 6 of 7 morphological traits measured. Patterns of phenotypic divergence paralleled environmental gradients in ways suggestive of adaptation. Progeny resembled their mothers less as the environmental distance between their home site and the common garden increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite strong molecular signatures of isolation and drift, phenotypic differences among these Impatiens populations appear to reflect both adaptive quantitative genetic divergence and plasticity. Quantifying the extent of local adaptation and plasticity and how these covary with molecular and phenotypic variation help us predict when populations may lose their adaptive capacity.

Dissecting impacts of phenological shifts for performance across biological scales

Although phenological shifts in response to climate are often assumed to benefit species' performance and viability, phenology's role in allowing population persistence and mediating species-level responses in the face of climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a framework to understand when and why phenological shifts at three biological scales will influence performance: individuals, populations, and macroecological patterns. Specifically, we highlight three underexplored assumptions: (i) individual variability in phenology does not affect population fitness; (ii) population growth rates are sensitive to vital rates affected by phenology; and (iii) phenology mediates species-level responses to climate change including patterns of extinction, invasion, and range shifts. We outline promising methods for understanding how phenological shifts will influence performance within and across biological scales.