Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation

Strong and consistent effects of waterbird composition on HPAI H5 occurrences across Europe

Since 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have been dominating the outbreaks across Europe, causing massive deaths among poultry and wild birds. However, the factors shaping these broad-scale outbreak patterns, especially those related to waterbird community composition, remain unclear. In particular, we do not know whether these risk factors differ from those of other H5 clades. Addressing this knowledge gap is important for predicting and preventing future HPAI outbreaks. Using extensive waterbird survey datasets from about 6883 sites, we here explored the effect of waterbird community composition on HPAI H5Nx (clade 2.3.4.4) spatial patterns in the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 epidemics in Europe, and compared it with the 2005/2006 HPAI H5N1 (clade 2.2) epidemic. We showed that HPAI H5 occurrences in wild birds in the three epidemics were strongly associated with very similar waterbird community attributes, which suggested that, in nature, similar interspecific transmission processes operate between the HPAI H5 subtypes or clades. Importantly, community phylogenetic diversity consistently showed a negative association with H5 occurrence in all three epidemics, suggesting a dilution effect of phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, waterbird community variables showed much weaker associations with HPAI H5Nx occurrence in poultry. Our results demonstrate that models based on previous epidemics can predict future HPAI H5 patterns in wild birds, implying that it is important to include waterbird community factors in future HPAI studies to predict outbreaks and improve surveillance activities.

A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4 detected in Samara Oblast, Russian Federation

Avian influenza (AI) is a global problem impacting birds and mammals, causing economic losses in commercial poultry farms and backyard settings. In 2022, over 8,500 AI cases were reported worldwide, with the H5 subtype being responsible for many outbreaks in wild and domestic birds. In the territory of the Russian Federation, outbreaks of AI have been massively reported since 2020, both among domestic bird species and wild bird species. Wild migratory birds often serve as natural reservoirs for AI viruses, and interactions between bird species can lead to the emergence of new, highly pathogenic variants through genetic recombination between strains. In order to combat the widespread outbreaks of the disease and potential risks of further spread in 2021, monitoring studies were conducted in the Samara Oblast, the southeastern region of European Russian Federation. These studies aimed to diagnose and characterize circulating AI virus variants among wild migratory birds during waterfowl hunting in areas of mass nesting. Among the 98 shot birds, a highly pathogenic A/H5N1 AI virus was detected in a Eurasian Teal from the Bolshechernigovsky district. It was classified into clade 2.3.4.4 based on the cleavage site structure of HA. Phylogenetic analysis showed a high relatedness of the identified strain in the Samara Oblast with field isolates from Russia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Benin. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring AI virus spread in both wild and poultry, highlighting the need for timely information exchange to assess risks. Further comprehensive studies are necessary to understand virus dissemination pathways.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus-Induced Mass Death of Wild Birds, Caspian Sea, Russia, 2022

In May 2022, we observed a substantial die-off of wild migratory waterbirds on Maliy Zhemchuzhniy Island in the Caspian Sea, Russia. The deaths were caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4.b virus. Continued surveillance of influenza viruses in wild bird populations is needed to predict virus spread over long distances.

Functional traits explain waterbirds' host status, subtype richness, and community-level infection risk for avian influenza

Species functional traits can influence pathogen transmission processes, and consequently affect species' host status, pathogen diversity, and community-level infection risk. We here investigated, for 143 European waterbird species, effects of functional traits on host status and pathogen diversity (subtype richness) for avian influenza virus at species level. We then explored the association between functional diversity and HPAI H5Nx occurrence at the community level for 2016/17 and 2021/22 epidemics in Europe. We found that both host status and subtype richness were shaped by several traits, such as diet guild and dispersal ability, and that the community-weighted means of these traits were also correlated with community-level risk of H5Nx occurrence. Moreover, functional divergence was negatively associated with H5Nx occurrence, indicating that functional diversity can reduce infection risk. Our findings highlight the value of integrating trait-based ecology into the framework of diversity-disease relationship, and provide new insights for HPAI prediction and prevention.

Spreading of the High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (H5N1) Virus of Clade 2.3.4.4b into Uruguay

BACKGROUND

Avian influenza viruses (genus Alphainfluenzavirus, family Orthomyxoviridae) infect avian and mammal hosts. In 2022, the high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (H5N1) spread to South America, resulting in the loss of thousands of wild birds, including endangered species, and severely impacting the global poultry industry.

OBJECTIVES

We analyzed the complete genomes of influenza viruses obtained from wild birds and backyard poultry in Uruguay between February and May 2023.

METHODS

Twelve complete genomes were obtained in 2023 from cloacal swabs using Illumina sequencing. Genomes were phylogenetically analyzed with regional and global strains.

FINDINGS

The identified strains have multiple basic amino acids at the hemagglutinin cleavage sites, which is typical for highly pathogenic strains. The Uruguayan viruses belonged to hemagglutinin clade 2.3.4.4b of the H5N1 subtype. A reassortment in North America has resulted in some segments of South American strains being of Eurasian or North American origins. The Uruguayan viruses shared a common ancestor with South American strains from Argentina and Chile. The influenza viruses displayed a spatiotemporal divergence pattern rather than being host-specific.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The arrival of the 2.3.4.4b clade in Uruguay may have been mediated by birds that acquired the virus from Argentine and Chilean waterfowl migrating in the Pacific Flyway.

Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022

H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.

Protective efficacy of a bivalent H5 influenza vaccine candidate against both clades 2.3.2.1 and 2.3.4.4 high pathogenic avian influenza viruses in SPF chickens

Worldwide, high pathogenic avian influenza viruses belonging to clades 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1 have been circulating in both poultry and wild birds. Since 2018, Korea has built a national antigen bank to ensure preparedness in an emergency. In this study, we developed a bivalent vaccine candidate containing antigens derived from two reassortant KA435/2.3.2.1d and H35/2.3.4.4b strains for Korean national antigen bank. We evaluated its immunogenicity and protective efficacy in specific pathogen free chickens. The two vaccine strains, rgKA435-H9N2 PB2/2.3.2.1d and rgH35/2.3.4.4b, both of which were generated successfully by reverse genetics, were highly immunogenic (titres of haemagglutination inhibition: 8.3 and 8.4 log₂, respectively) and showed good protective efficacy (100 and 147 50% protective dose, respectively) against lethal challenge with wild-type virus when delivered as a 1:1 mixture. Notably, the vaccine provided complete protection against viral shedding at a full dose (512 HAU) and a 1/10 dose (51.2 HAU), with no clinical signs, after challenge with H35/2.3.4.4b. The bivalent vaccine developed in this study may reduce the cost of vaccine production and could be used as a H5 subtype avian influenza vaccine candidate against two clades simultaneously.

Multiple HA substitutions in highly pathogenic avian influenza H5Nx viruses contributed to the change in the NA subtype preference

Novel highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx viruses are predominantly circulating worldwide, with an increasing potential threat of an outbreak in humans. It remains largely unknown how the stably maintained HPAI H5N1 suddenly altered its neuraminidase (NA) to other NA subtypes, which resulted in the emergence and evolution of H5Nx viruses. Here, we found that a combination of four specific amino acid (AA) substitutions (S123P-T156A-D183N- S223 R) in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein consistently observed in the H5Nx markedly altered the NA preference of H5N1 viruses. These molecular changes in H5N1 impaired its fitness, particularly viral growth and the functional activities of the HA and NA proteins. Among the AA substitutions identified, the T156A substitution, which contributed to the NA shift, also dramatically altered the antigenicity of H5N1 viruses, suggesting an occurrence of antigenic drift triggered by selective pressure. Our study shows the importance of how HA and NA complement each other and that antigenic drift in HA can potentially cause a shift in the NA protein in influenza A virus evolution.

Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

Development of a Rapid Fluorescent Diagnostic System for Early Detection of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 Clade 2.3.4.4 Viruses in Chicken Stool

Rapid diagnosis is essential for the control and prevention of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs). However, highly sensitive and rapid diagnostic systems have shown limited performance due to specific antibody scarcity. In this study, two novel specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for clade 2.3.4.4 H5Nx viruses were developed by using an immunogen from a reversed genetic influenza virus (RGV). These mAbs were combined with fluorescence europium nanoparticles and an optimized lysis buffer, which were further used for developing a fluorescent immunochromatographic rapid strip test (FICT) for early detection of H5Nx influenza viruses on chicken stool samples. The result indicates that the limit of detection (LoD) of the developed FICT was 40 HAU/mL for detection of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4b in spiked chicken stool samples, which corresponded to 4.78 × 10⁴ RNA copies as obtained from real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). An experimental challenge of chicken with H5N6 HPAIV is lethal for chicken three days post-infection (DPI). Interestingly, our FICT could detect H5N6 in stool samples at 2 DPI earlier, with 100% relative sensitivity in comparison with RT-PCR, and it showed 50% higher sensitivity than the traditional colloidal gold-based rapid diagnostic test using the same mAbs pair. In conclusion, our rapid diagnostic method can be utilized for the early detection of H5Nx 2.3.4.4 HPAIVs in avian fecal samples from poultry farms or for influenza surveillance in wild migratory birds.

Effect of Land-Use Change on the Changes in Human Lyme Risk in the United States

The spatial extent and incidence of Lyme disease is increasing in the United States, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. Many previous studies have explored the drivers of its spatial pattern, however, few studies tried to explore the drivers for the changes of Lyme disease. We here compared the spatial patterns of changes of human Lyme cases and incidence in the Northeast and Upper Midwest between 2003–2005 and 2015–2017, and applied two different approaches (i.e., a statistical regularization approach and model averaging) to investigate the climatic and landscape factors affecting the risk change between the two periods. Our results suggested that changes in land-use variables generally showed different relationships with changes of human Lyme risk between the two regions. Changes of variables related to human-use areas showed opposite correlations in two regions. Besides, forest area and forest edge density generally negatively correlated with the change of human Lyme risk. In the context of ongoing habitat change, we consider this study may provide new insight into understanding the responses of human Lyme disease to these changes, and contribute to a better prediction in the future.

Safety, Immunogenicity, and Protective Efficacy of an H5N1 Chimeric Cold-Adapted Attenuated Virus Vaccine in a Mouse Model

H5N1 influenza virus is a threat to public health worldwide. The virus can cause severe morbidity and mortality in humans. We constructed an H5N1 influenza candidate virus vaccine from the A/chicken/Guizhou/1153/2016 strain that was recommended by the World Health Organization. In this study, we designed an H5N1 chimeric influenza A/B vaccine based on a cold-adapted (ca) influenza B virus B/Vienna/1/99 backbone. We modified the ectodomain of H5N1 hemagglutinin (HA) protein, while retaining the packaging signals of influenza B virus, and then rescued a chimeric cold-adapted H5N1 candidate influenza vaccine through a reverse genetic system. The chimeric H5N1 vaccine replicated well in eggs and the Madin-Darby Canine Kidney cells. It maintained a temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted phenotype. The H5N1 vaccine was attenuated in mice. Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibodies, micro-neutralizing (MN) antibodies, and IgG antibodies were induced in immunized mice, and the mucosal IgA antibody responses were detected in their lung lavage fluids. The IFN-γ-secretion and IL-4-secretion by the mouse splenocytes were induced after stimulation with the specific H5N1 HA protein. The chimeric H5N1 candidate vaccine protected mice against lethal challenge with a wild-type highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza virus. The chimeric H5 candidate vaccine is thus a potentially safe, attenuated, and reassortment-incompetent vaccine with circulating A viruses.

Single dose of multi-clade virus-like particle vaccine protects chickens against clade 2.3.2.1 and clade 2.3.4.4 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses

Virus-like particles (VLPs) are recognized as an alternative vaccine platform that provide effective protection against various highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs). Here, we developed multi-clade VLPs expressing two HAs (a chimera of clade 2.3.2.1c and clade 2.3.4.4c HA) within a single vector. We then compared its protective efficacy with that of a monovalent VLP and evaluated its potency against each homologous strain. Chickens vaccinated with the multi-clade VLP shed less virus and were better protected against challenge than birds receiving monovalent vaccines. Single vaccination with a multi-clade VLP resulted in 100% survival, with no clinical symptoms and high levels of pre-challenge protective immunity (7.6–8.5 log₂). Moreover, the multi-clade VLP showed high productivity (128–256 HAU) both in the laboratory and on a large scale, making it cheaper than whole inactivated vaccines produced in eggs. However, the PD₅₀ (protective dose 50%) of the multi-clade VLP against clades 2.3.2.1c and 2.3.4.4c was < 50 PD₅₀ (28 and 42 PD₅₀, respectively), and effective antibody response was maintained for 2–3 months. This multi-clade VLP protects against both clades of HPAI viruses and can be produced in high amounts at low cost. Thus, the vaccine has potential as a pandemic preparedness vaccine.

Modelling the Spatial Distribution of ASF-Positive Wild Boar Carcasses in South Korea Using 2019-2020 National Surveillance Data

Simple Summary

Since African swine fever (ASF) virus in wild boar populations can spill over to domestic pigs, it is crucial to understand the disease determinants in the wild compartment. However, the imperfect detection sensitivity of wild boar surveillance jeopardizes our ability to understand ASF spatial distribution. In this study, we used national surveillance data of ASF in wild boars collected in the Republic of Korea from 2019–2020 to model the spatial distribution of ASF-positive carcasses for two successive study periods associated with different surveillance intensity. The model allowed us to identify disease risk factors in the Republic of Korea, determine the spatial distribution of the risk of ASF, and estimate the sensitivity of surveillance. The outputs of this study are relevant to policy makers for developing and improving risk-based surveillance programs for ASF in wild boars.

Abstract

In September 2019, African swine fever (ASF) was reported in South Korea for the first time. Since then, more than 651 ASF cases in wild boars and 14 farm outbreaks have been notified in the country. Despite the efforts to eradicate ASF among wild boar populations, the number of reported ASF-positive wild boar carcasses have increased recently. The purpose of this study was to characterize the spatial distribution of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses to identify the risk factors associated with the presence and number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in the affected areas. Because surveillance efforts have substantially increased in early 2020, we divided the study into two periods (2 October 2019 to 19 January 2020, and 19 January to 28 April 2020) based on the number of reported cases and aggregated the number of reported ASF-positive carcasses into a regular grid of hexagons of 3-km diameter. To account for imperfect detection of positive carcasses, we adjusted spatial zero-inflated Poisson regression models to the number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses per hexagon. During the first study period, proximity to North Korea was identified as the major risk factor for the presence of African swine fever virus. In addition, there were more positive carcasses reported in affected hexagons with high habitat suitability for wild boars, low heat load index (HLI), and high human density. During the second study period, proximity to an ASF-positive carcass reported during the first period was the only significant risk factor for the presence of ASF-positive carcasses. Additionally, low HLI and elevation were associated with an increased number of ASF-positive carcasses reported in the affected hexagons. Although the proportion of ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.06 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.05–0.07) to 0.09 (95% CrI: 0.08–0.10), the probability of reporting at least one positive carcass in ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.49 (95% CrI: 0.41–0.57) to 0.73 (95% CrI: 0.66–0.81) between the two study periods. These results can be used to further advance risk-based surveillance strategies in the Republic of Korea.

Antibodies to Highly Pathogenic A/H5Nx (Clade 2.3.4.4) Influenza Viruses in the Sera of Vietnamese Residents

To cause a pandemic, an influenza virus has to overcome two main barriers. First, the virus has to be antigenically new to humans. Second, the virus has to be directly transmitted from humans to humans. Thus, if the avian influenza virus is able to pass the second barrier, it could cause a pandemic, since there is no immunity to avian influenza in the human population. To determine whether the adaptation process is ongoing, analyses of human sera could be conducted in populations inhabiting regions where pandemic virus variant emergence is highly possible. This study aimed to analyze the sera of Vietnamese residents using hemagglutinin inhibition reaction (HI) and microneutralization (MN) with A/H5Nx (clade 2.3.4.4) influenza viruses isolated in Vietnam and the Russian Federation in 2017–2018. In this study, we used sera from 295 residents of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam collected from three groups: 52 samples were collected from households in Nam Dinh province, where poultry deaths have been reported (2017); 96 (2017) and 147 (2018) samples were collected from patients with somatic but not infectious diseases in Hanoi. In all, 65 serum samples were positive for HI, at least to one H5 virus used in the study. In MN, 47 serum samples neutralizing one or two viruses at dilutions of 1/40 or higher were identified. We postulate that the rapidly evolving A/H5Nx (clade 2.3.4.4) influenza virus is possibly gradually adapting to the human host, insofar as healthy individuals have antibodies to a wide spectrum of variants of that subtype.

A framework for the risk prediction of avian influenza occurrence: An Indonesian case study

Avian influenza viruses can cause economically devastating diseases in poultry and have the potential for zoonotic transmission. To mitigate the consequences of avian influenza, disease prediction systems have become increasingly important. In this study, we have proposed a framework for the prediction of the occurrence and spread of avian influenza events in a geographical area. The application of the proposed framework was examined in an Indonesian case study. An extensive list of historical data sources containing disease predictors and target variables was used to build spatiotemporal and transactional datasets. To combine disparate sources, data rows were scaled to a temporal scale of 1-week and a spatial scale of 1-degree × 1-degree cells. Given the constructed datasets, underlying patterns in the form of rules explaining the risk of occurrence and spread of avian influenza were discovered. The created rules were combined and ordered based on their importance and then stored in a knowledge base. The results suggested that the proposed framework could act as a tool to gain a broad understanding of the drivers of avian influenza epidemics and may facilitate the prediction of future disease events.

Different environmental gradients associated to the spatiotemporal and genetic pattern of the H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Italy

Comprehensive understanding of the patterns and drivers of avian influenza outbreaks is pivotal to inform surveillance systems and heighten nations' ability to quickly detect and respond to the emergence of novel viruses. Starting in early 2017, the Italian poultry sector has been involved in the massive H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic that spread in the majority of the European countries in 2016/2017. Eighty-three outbreaks were recorded in north-eastern Italy, where a densely populated poultry area stretches along the Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto regions. The confirmed cases, affecting both the rural and industrial sectors, depicted two distinct epidemic waves. We adopted a combination of multivariate statistics techniques and multi-model regression selection and inference, to investigate how environmental factors relate to the pattern of outbreaks diversity with respect to their spatiotemporal and genetic diversity. Results showed that a combination of eco-climatic and host density predictors were associated with the outbreaks pattern, and variation along gradients was noticeable among genetically and geographically distinct groups of avian influenza cases. These regional contrasts may be indicative of a different mechanism driving the introduction and spreading routes of the influenza virus in the domestic poultry population. This methodological approach may be extended to different spatiotemporal scale to foster site-specific, ecologically informed risk mitigating strategies.

Development and biochemical characterization of the monoclonal antibodies for specific detection of the emerging H5N8 and H5Nx avian influenza virus hemagglutinins

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus has been detected in wild birds and poultry worldwide. The threat caused by HPAI H5N8 virus still exists with concerns for human infection. The preparedness for epidemic prevention and decreasing the agricultural and economic lost is extremely important. Hemagglutinin (HA), a surface glycoprotein of influenza viruses, is considered as the major target for detection of the influenza virus subtype in the infected samples. In this study, the recombinant H5N8 HA1 and HA2 proteins were expressed in Escherichia coli, and were utilized to generate two monoclonal antibodies, named 7H6C and YC8. 7H6C can bind the HA proteins of H5N1 and H5N8, but cannot bind the HA proteins of H1N1, H3N2, and H7N9, indicating that it has H5-subtype specificity. In contrast, YC8 can bind the HA proteins of H1N1, H5N1, and H5N8, but cannot bind the HA proteins of H3N2 and H7N9, indicating that it has H1-subtype and H5-subtype specificity. The epitope sequences recognized by 7H6C are located in the head domain of H5N8 HA, and are highly conserved in H5 subtypes. The epitope sequences recognized by YC8 are located in the stalk domain of H5N8 HA, and are highly conserved among the H1 and H5 subtypes. 7H6C and YC8 can be applied for specific detection of the HA proteins of H5N8 and H5Nx avian influenza viruses. KEY POINTS: • The mAb 7H6C or YC8 was generated by using the HA1 or HA2 of the HPAI H5N8 virus as the immunogen. • 7H6C recognized the head domain of H5N8 HA, and YC8 recognized the stalk domain of H5N8 HA. • 7H6C and YC8 can detect the HA proteins of H5Nx subtypes specifically.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Landscape Suitability Varies by Wetland Habitats and the Degree of Interface between Wild Waterfowl and Poultry in India

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1, constitutes one of the world's most important health and economic concerns given the catastrophic impact of epizootics on the poultry industry, the high mortality attending spillover in humans, and its potential as a source subtype for a future pandemic. Nevertheless, we still lack an adequate understanding of HPAI H5N1 epidemiology and infection ecology. The nature of the wild waterfowl-poultry interface, and the sharing of diverse wetland habitat among these birds, currently underscore important knowledge gaps. India has emerged as a global hotspot for HPAI H5N1, while also providing critical wintering habitat for many species of migratory waterfowl and year-round habitat for several resident waterfowl species. The current study sought to examine the extent to which the wild waterfowl-poultry interface, varied wetland habitat, and climate influence HPAI H5N1 epizootics in poultry in India. Using World Organisation for Animal Health reported outbreaks, this study showed that the wild waterfowl-poultry interface and lacustrine, riparian, and coastal marsh wetland systems were strongly associated with landscape suitability, and these relationships varied by scale. Although increasing poultry density was associated with increasing risk, this was only the case in the absence of wild waterfowl habitat, and only at a local scale. In landscapes increasingly shared between wild waterfowl and poultry, suitability was greater among lower density poultry, again at a local scale only. These findings provide further insight into the occurrence of HPAI H5N1 in India and suggest important landscape targets for blocking the waterfowl-poultry interface to interrupt virus transmission and prevent future outbreaks.

A decision support framework for prediction of avian influenza

For years, avian influenza has influenced economies and human health around the world. The emergence and spread of avian influenza virus have been uncertain and sudden. The virus is likely to spread through several pathways such as poultry transportation and wild bird migration. The complicated and global spread of avian influenza calls for surveillance tools for timely and reliable prediction of disease events. These tools can increase situational awareness and lead to faster reaction to events. Here, we aimed to design and evaluate a decision support framework that aids decision makers by answering their questions regarding the future risk of events at various geographical scales. Risk patterns were driven from pre-built components and combined in a knowledge base. Subsequently, questions were answered by direct queries on the knowledge base or through a built-in algorithm. The evaluation of the system in detecting events resulted in average sensitivity and specificity of 69.70% and 85.50%, respectively. The presented framework here can support health care authorities by providing them with an opportunity for early control of emergency situations.

Regional Transmission and Reassortment of 2.3.4.4b Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) Viruses in Bulgarian Poultry 2017/18

Between 2017 and 2018, several farms across Bulgaria reported outbreaks of H5 highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. In this study we used genomic and traditional epidemiological analyses to trace the origin and subsequent spread of these outbreaks within Bulgaria. Both methods indicate two separate incursions, one restricted to the northeastern region of Dobrich, and another largely restricted to Central and Eastern Bulgaria including places such as Plovdiv, Sliven and Stara Zagora, as well as one virus from the Western region of Vidin. Both outbreaks likely originate from different European 2.3.4.4b virus ancestors circulating in 2017. The viruses were likely introduced by wild birds or poultry trade links in 2017 and have continued to circulate, but due to lack of contemporaneous sampling and sequences from wild bird viruses in Bulgaria, the precise route and timing of introduction cannot be determined. Analysis of whole genomes indicates a complete lack of reassortment in all segments but the matrix protein gene (MP), which presents as multiple smaller clusters associated with different European 2.3.4.4b viruses. Ancestral reconstruction of host states of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of viruses involved in the outbreaks suggests that transmission is driven by domestic ducks into galliform poultry. Thus, according to present evidence, we suggest the surveillance of domestic ducks as they are an epidemiologically relevant species for subclinical infection. Monitoring the spread due to movement between farms within regions and links to poultry production systems in European countries can help to predict and prevent future outbreaks. The 2.3.4.4b lineage which caused the largest recorded poultry epidemic in Europe continues to circulate, and the risk of further transmission by wild birds during migration remains.

Annually modelling built-settlements between remotely-sensed observations using relative changes in subnational populations and lights at night

Mapping urban features/human built-settlement extents at the annual time step has a wide variety of applications in demography, public health, sustainable development, and many other fields. Recently, while more multitemporal urban features/human built-settlement datasets have become available, issues still exist in remotely-sensed imagery due to spatial and temporal coverage, adverse atmospheric conditions, and expenses involved in producing such datasets. Remotely-sensed annual time-series of urban/built-settlement extents therefore do not yet exist and cover more than specific local areas or city-based regions. Moreover, while a few high-resolution global datasets of urban/built-settlement extents exist for key years, the observed date often deviates many years from the assigned one. These challenges make it difficult to increase temporal coverage while maintaining high fidelity in the spatial resolution. Here we describe an interpolative and flexible modelling framework for producing annual built-settlement extents. We use a combined technique of random forest and spatio-temporal dasymetric modelling with open source subnational data to produce annual 100 m × 100 m resolution binary built-settlement datasets in four test countries located in varying environmental and developmental contexts for test periods of five-year gaps. We find that in the majority of years, across all study areas, the model correctly identified between 85 and 99% of pixels that transition to built-settlement. Additionally, with few exceptions, the model substantially out performed a model that gave every pixel equal chance of transitioning to built-settlement in each year. This modelling framework shows strong promise for filling gaps in cross-sectional urban features/built-settlement datasets derived from remotely-sensed imagery, provides a base upon which to create urban future/built-settlement extent projections, and enables further exploration of the relationships between urban/built-settlement area and population dynamics.

The Emergence and Decennary Distribution of Clade 2.3.4.4 HPAI H5Nx

Reassortment events among influenza viruses occur naturally and may lead to the development of new and different subtypes which often ignite the possibility of an influenza outbreak. Between 2008 and 2010, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 of the N1 subtype from the A/goose/Guangdong/1/96-like (Gs/GD) lineage generated novel reassortants by introducing other neuraminidase (NA) subtypes reported to cause most outbreaks in poultry. With the extensive divergence of the H5 hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of documented viruses, the WHO/FAO/OIE H5 Evolutionary Working Group clustered these viruses into a systematic and unified nomenclature of clade 2.3.4.4 currently known as “H5Nx” viruses. The rapid emergence and circulation of these viruses, namely, H5N2, H5N3, H5N5, H5N6, H5N8, and the regenerated H5N1, are of great concern based on their pandemic potential. Knowing the evolution and emergence of these novel reassortants helps to better understand their complex nature. The eruption of reports of each H5Nx reassortant through time demonstrates that it could persist beyond its usual seasonal activity, intensifying the possibility of these emerging viruses’ pandemic potential. This review paper provides an overview of the emergence of each novel HPAI H5Nx virus as well as its current epidemiological distribution.

Duck production systems and highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 in France, 2016-2017

In winter 2016-2017, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus spread across Europe, causing unprecedented epizootics. France was massively affected, resulting in the culling of over 6 million poultry. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to quantify the association between spatial risk factors and HPAI H5N8 infection in poultry holdings and to generate predictive maps for HPAI infection. Three datasets were combined to build the model: a dataset of the reported outbreaks in poultry, a dataset of the poultry holdings where the virus has not been reported and a set of relevant spatial risk factors, including poultry production and trade, and water bird habitat. Results identified key associations between the 'foie gras' production systems and HPAI H5N8 risk of occurrence and indicate that strengthening surveillance of fattening duck production systems and making the transportation of fattening ducks more secure would be key priority options for HPAI prevention and control.

Optimising the detectability of H5N1 and H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in Vietnamese live-bird markets

Live bird markets (LBMs) are major targets for avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance programmes. While sampling the LBM environment has become a widely used alternative to the labour-intensive sampling of live poultry, the design of surveillance programmes and the interpretation of their results are compromised by the lack of knowledge about the effectiveness of these sampling strategies. We used latent class models and a unique empirical dataset collated in Vietnamese LBMs to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five different sample types for detecting AIVs subtypes H5N1 and H5N6: oropharyngeal duck samples, solid and liquid wastes, poultry drinking water and faeces. Results suggest that the sensitivity of environmental samples for detecting H5N1 viruses is equivalent to that of oropharyngeal duck samples; however, taking oropharyngeal duck samples was estimated to be more effective in detecting H5N6 viruses than taking any of the four environmental samples. This study also stressed that the specificity of the current surveillance strategy in LBMs was not optimal leading to some false positive LBMs. Using simulations, we identified 42 sampling strategies more parsimonious than the current strategy and expected to be highly sensitive for both viruses at the LBM level. All of these strategies involved the collection of both environmental and oropharyngeal duck samples.

Biosecurity practices on foie gras duck farms, Southwest France

On-farm biosecurity can be assessed by analyzing patterns of practices to better tailor technical advice to producers. Given their close contact with environmental and wildlife disease reservoirs, free-range duck farms are exposed to multiple risk factors of pathogen exposure that are rare or absent in indoor production. The recurrent emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) viruses in Southeast Asia and Europe has emphasized the importance of farm-level biosecurity on free-range duck farms. This study was conducted on 46 French duck farms. The farms were visited and an 80-question survey was administered to assess biosecurity practices. Patterns of practices were explored with multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis. Farms were assigned to one of three clusters in which specific farm types were overrepresented: farms specialized in rearing to grow-out phases and open-circuit full cycle (i.e., all production phases on the farm) farms in cluster 1, closed-circuit full cycle farms in cluster 2, and farms specialized in gavage in cluster 3. Differences in practices might be linked with differences in production constraints. This study provides a baseline assessment of biosecurity practices on foie gras duck farms in Southwest France and will help efforts to adapt biosecurity programs to farm types.

Compatibility between haemagglutinin and neuraminidase drives the recent emergence of novel clade 2.3.4.4 H5Nx avian influenza viruses in China

Genetic reassortments between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 subtype viruses with different neuraminidase (NA) subtypes have increased in prevalence since 2010 in wild birds and poultry from China. The HA gene slightly evolved from clade 2.3.4 to clade 2.3.4.4, raising the question of whether novel clade 2.3.4.4 HA broke the balance with N1 but is matched well with NAx to drive viral epidemics. To clarify the role of compatibility between HA and NA on the prevalence of H5Nx subtypes, we constructed 10 recombinant viruses in which the clade 2.3.4 or clade 2.3.4.4 HA genes were matched with different NA (N1, N2 and N8) genes and evaluated viral characteristics and pathogenicity. Combinations between clade 2.3.4 HA and N1 or between clade 2.3.4.4 HA and NAx, but not between clade 2.3.4.4 HA and N1, or between clade 2.3.4 HA and NAx, promoted viral growth, NA activity, thermostability, low-pH stability and pathogenicity in chicken and mice. These findings suggest that both clade 2.3.4 HA/N1 and clade 2.3.4.4 HA/NAx displayed a better match, which could promote the increased prevalence of clade 2.3.4 H5N1 AIV (prior to 2010) and clade 2.3.4.4 H5Nx AIV (since 2010) in China, respectively.

Could Changes in the Agricultural Landscape of Northeastern China Have Influenced the Long-Distance Transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5Nx Viruses?

In the last few years, several reassortant subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI H5Nx) have emerged in East Asia. These new viruses, mostly of subtype H5N1, H5N2, H5N6, and H5N8 belonging to clade 2.3.4.4, have been found in several Asian countries and have caused outbreaks in poultry in China, South Korea, and Vietnam. HPAI H5Nx also have spread over considerable distances with the introduction of viruses belonging to the same 2.3.4.4 clade in the U.S. (2014–2015) and in Europe (2014–2015 and 2016–2017). In this paper, we examine the emergence and spread of these new viruses in Asia in relation to published datasets on HPAI H5Nx distribution, movement of migratory waterfowl, avian influenza risk models, and land-use change analyses. More specifically, we show that between 2000 and 2015, vast areas of northeast China have been newly planted with rice paddy fields (3.21 million ha in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning) in areas connected to other parts of Asia through migratory pathways of wild waterfowl. We hypothesize that recent land use changes in northeast China have affected the spatial distribution of wild waterfowl, their stopover areas, and the wild-domestic interface, thereby altering transmission dynamics of avian influenza viruses across flyways. Detailed studies of the habitat use by wild migratory birds, of the extent of the wild–domestic interface, and of the circulation of avian influenza viruses in those new planted areas may help to shed more light on this hypothesis, and on the possible impact of those changes on the long-distance patterns of avian influenza transmission.

Intensifying poultry production systems and the emergence of avian influenza in China: a 'One Health/Ecohealth' epitome

Several kinds of pressure can lead to the emergence of infectious diseases. In the case of zoonoses emerging from livestock, one of the most significant changes that has taken place since the mid twentieth century is what has been termed the “livestock revolution”, whereby the stock of food animals, their productivity and their trade has increased rapidly to feed rising and increasingly wealthy and urbanized populations. Further increases are projected in the future in low and middle-income countries. Using avian influenza as an example, we discuss how the emergence of avian influenza H5N1 and H7N9 in China was linked to rapid intensification of the poultry sector taking place in landscapes rich in wetland agriculture and wild waterfowls habitats, providing an extensive interface with the wild reservoir of avian influenza viruses. Trade networks and live-poultry markets further exacerbated the spread and persistence of avian influenza as well as human exposure. However, as the history of emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) demonstrates in high-income countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, this is by no way specific to low and middle-income countries. Many HPAI emergence events took place in countries with generally good biosecurity standards, and the majority of these in regions hosting intensive poultry production systems. Emerging zoonoses are only one of a number of externalities of intensive livestock production systems, alongside antimicrobial consumption, disruption of nutrient cycles and greenhouse gases emissions, with direct or indirect impacts on human health. In parallel, livestock production is essential to nutrition and livelihoods in many low-income countries. Deindustrialization of the most intensive production systems in high-income countries and sustainable intensifications in low-income countries may converge to a situation where the nutritional and livelihood benefits of livestock production would be less overshadowed by its negative impacts on human an ecosystem health.

Rapid and broad detection of H5 hemagglutinin by an immunochromatographic kit using novel monoclonal antibody against highly pathogenic avian influenza virus belonging to the genetic clade 2.3.4.4

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) of H5 subtype have persistently caused outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild birds worldwide and sporadically infected humans. Rapid and accurate diagnosis is one of the key strategies for the control of H5 HPAIVs. However, the sensitivity of the diagnosis of H5 HPAIVs has gradually reduced due to extensive antigenic variation during their evolution. Particularly, the previously developed immunochromatographic diagnosis kit for H5 viruses, Linjudge Flu A/H5, exhibits reduced detection of H5 HPAIVs isolated in recent years. In the present study, we established a new advanced H5 rapid immunochromatographic detection kit (New Linjudge Flu A/H5) by a combination of two anti-H5 hemagglutinin monoclonal antibodies, A64/1 previously applied in the Linjudge Flu A/H5 and A32/2, a novel monoclonal antibody generated from a clade 2.3.4.4 H5 HPAIV. The new kit broadly detected all classical and recent H5 influenza viruses and showed a higher specificity and sensitivity than the original Linjudge Flu A/H5 with recently circulating H5 HPAIVs. Furthermore, the applicability of the New Linjudge Flu A/H5 was demonstrated by detecting antigens from the swabs and tissue homogenates of naturally infected birds and experimentally infected chickens with H5N6 HPAIVs belonging to the genetic clade 2.3.4.4. Our study, therefore, can provide an effective point-of-care rapid antigen detection kit for the surveillance of H5 avian influenza viruses and as a prompt countermeasure against the current widespread of the clade 2.3.4.4 H5 HPAIVs in domestic and wild birds.

Immune Responses of Chickens Infected with Wild Bird-Origin H5N6 Avian Influenza Virus

Since April 2014, new infections of H5N6 avian influenza virus (AIV) in humans and domestic poultry have caused considerable economic losses in the poultry industry and posed an enormous threat to human health worldwide. In previous research using gene sequence and phylogenetic analysis, we reported that H5N6 AIV isolated in February 2015 (ZH283) in Pallas’s sandgrouse was highly similar to that isolated in a human in December 2015 (A/Guangdong/ZQ874/2015), whereas a virus (i.e., SW8) isolated in oriental magpie-robin in 2014 was highly similar to that of A/chicken/Dongguan/2690/2013 (H5N6). However, the pathogenicity, transmissibility, and host immune-related response of chickens infected by those wild bird-origin H5N6 AIVs remain unknown. In response, we examined the viral distribution and mRNA expression profiles of immune-related genes in chickens infected with both viruses. Results showed that the H5N6 AIVs were highly pathogenic to chickens and caused not only systemic infection in multiple tissues, but also 100% mortality within 3–5 days post-infection. Additionally, ZH283 efficiently replicated in all tested tissues and transmitted among chickens more rapidly than SW8. Moreover, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis showed that following infection with H5N6, AIVs immune-related genes remained active in a tissue-dependent manner, as well as that ZH283 induced mRNA expression profiles such as TLR3, TLR7, IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-10, IL-8, and MHC-II to a greater extent than SW8 in the tested tissues of infected chickens. Altogether, our findings help to illuminate the pathogenesis and immunologic mechanisms of H5N6 AIVs in chickens.

Biological Characterizations of H5Nx Avian Influenza Viruses Embodying Different Neuraminidases

The H5 subtype virus of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus has caused huge economic losses to the poultry industry and is a threat to human health. Until 2010, H5N1 subtype virus was the major genotype in China. Since 2011, reassortant H5N2, H5N6, and H5N8 viruses were identified in domestic poultry in China. The clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 and H5N8 AIV has now spread to most of China. Clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 virus has caused 17 human deaths. However, the prevalence, pathogenicity, and transmissibility of the distinct NA reassortment with H5 subtypes viruses (H5Nx) is unknown. We constructed five clade 2.3.4.4 reassortant H5Nx viruses that shared the same HA and six internal gene segments. The NA gene segment was replaced with N1, N2, N6, ΔN6 (with an 11 amino acid deletion at the 58th to 68th of NA stalk region), and N8 strains, respectively. The reassortant viruses with distinct NAs of clade 2.3.4.4 H5 subtype had different degrees of fitness. All reassortant H5Nx viruses formed plaques on MDCK cell monolayers, but the ΔH5N6 grew more efficiently in mammalian and avian cells. The reassortant H5Nx viruses were more virulent in mice as compared to the H5N2 virus. The H5N6 and H5N8 reassortant viruses exhibited enhanced pathogenicity and transmissibility in chickens as compared to the H5N1 reassortant virus. We suggest that comprehensive surveillance work should be undertaken to monitor the H5Nx viruses.