Centre-level variation in the survival of patients receiving haemodialysis in India: findings from a nationwide private haemodialysis network

Background

There are no large studies examining survival in patients receiving haemodialysis in India or considering centre-level effects on survival. We measured survival variation between dialysis centres across India and evaluated the extent to which differences are explained by measured centre characteristics.

Methods

This is a multilevel analysis of patient survival in centres of the NephroPlus dialysis network consisting of 193 centres across India. Patients receiving haemodialysis at a centre for ≥90 days between April 2014 and June 2019 were included, with analyses restricted to centres with ≥10 such patients. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, measured from 90 days after joining a centre. Proportional hazards models with shared frailty were used to model centre- and patient-level effects on survival.

Findings

Amongst 23,601 patients (median age 53 years; 29% female), the unadjusted centre-specific 180-day Kaplan-Meier survival estimates ranged between 55% (95% confidence interval [CI] 38-80%) and 100%, with a median of 88% (interquartile interval 83%-92%). After accounting for multilevel factors, estimated 180-day survival ranged between 83% (73-89%) and 97% (95-98%), with 90% 180-day survival in the average centre. The mortality rate in patients attending rural centres was 32% (Hazard Ratio 1.32; 95% CI 1.06-1.65) higher than those at urban centres in adjusted analyses. Multiple patient characteristics were associated with mortality.

Interpretation

This is the first national benchmark for survival amongst dialysis patients in India. Centre- and patient-level characteristics are associated with survival but there remains unexplained variation between centres. As India continues to widen dialysis access, ongoing quality improvement programs will be an important part of ensuring that patients experience the best possible outcomes at the point of care.

Funding

This project received no external funding.

High-Target Hemodiafiltration Convective Dose Achieved in Most Patients in a 6-Month Intermediary Analysis of the CONVINCE Randomized Controlled Trial

Introduction

High convection volumes in hemodiafiltration (HDF) result in improved survival; however, it remains unclear whether it is achievable in all patients.

Methods

CONVINCE, a randomized controlled trial, randomized patients with end-stage kidney disease 1:1 to high-dose HDF versus high-flux hemodialysis (HD) continuation. We evaluated the proportion of patients achieving high-dose HDF target: convection volume per visit of ≥23 l (range ±1 l) at baseline, month 3, and month 6. We compared baseline characteristics in the following 2 ways: (i) patients on target for all 3 visits versus patients who missed target on ≥1 visits and (ii) patients on target for all 3 visits or missing it once versus patients who missed target on ≥2 visits.

Results

A total of 653 patients were randomized to HDF. Their mean age was 62.2 (SD 13.5) years, 36% were female, 81% had fistula vascular access, and 33% had diabetes. Across the 3 visits, 75 patients (11%), 27 patients (4%), and 11 patients (2%) missed the convection volume target once, twice, and thrice, respectively. Apart from diabetes, there were no apparent differences in patient characteristics between patients who always achieved the high-dose target (83%) and those who missed the target either once or more (17%) or twice or more (6%).

Conclusion

Achieving high-dose HDF is feasible for nearly all patients in CONVINCE and could be maintained during the 6-month follow-up period. Apart from diabetes, there were no other indications for confounding by indication on multivariable analyses that may explain the potential survival advantage for patients receiving high-dose HDF.

Kidney function and the comparative effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants vs. warfarin in adults with atrial fibrillation: a multicenter observational study

AIMS

The aim of this study was to determine the comparative effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and warfarin in adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) by level of kidney function.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We pooled findings from five retrospective cohorts (2011-18) across Australia and Canada of adults with; a new dispensation for a DOAC or warfarin, an AF diagnosis, and a measure of baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The outcomes of interest, within 1 year from the cohort entry date, were: (1) the composite of all-cause death, first hospitalization for ischaemic stroke, or transient ischaemic attack (effectiveness), and (2) first hospitalization for major bleeding defined as an intracranial, upper or lower gastrointestinal, or other bleeding (safety). Cox models were used to examine the association of a DOAC vs. warfarin with outcomes, after 1:1 matching via a propensity score. Kidney function was categorized as eGFR ≥60, 45-59, 30-44, and <30 mL/min/1.73 m2. A total of 74 542 patients were included in the matched analysis. DOAC initiation was associated with greater or similar effectiveness compared with warfarin initiation across all eGFR categories [pooled HRs (95% CIs) for eGFR categories: 0.74(0.69-0.79), 0.76(0.54-1.07), 0.68(0.61-0.75) and 0.86(0.76-0.98)], respectively. DOAC initiation was associated with lower or similar risk of major bleeding than warfarin initiation [pooled HRs (95% CIs): 0.75(0.65-0.86), 0.81(0.65-1.01), 0.82(0.66-1.02), and 0.71(0.52-0.99), respectively). Associations between DOAC initiation, compared with warfarin initiation, and study outcomes were not modified by eGFR category.

CONCLUSION

DOAC use, compared with warfarin use, was associated with a lower or similar risk of all-cause death, ischaemic stroke, and transient ischaemic attack and also a lower or similar risk of major bleeding across all levels of kidney function.

Women's representation in clinical trials of patients with chronic kidney disease

Background

Sex and gender differences in chronic kidney disease (CKD), including epidemiology and response to treatment, remain poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate how women are represented in CKD clinical trials and whether sex- and gender-disaggregated outcomes were reported.

Methods

Clinical trials on CKD were identified from ClinicalTrials.gov. Randomised, phase 3/4 trials with ≥100 participants were selected to quantify women's representation among participants by computing the participation:prevalence ratio (PPR) and investigating whether sex-disaggregated analyses had been performed.

Results

In total, 192 CKD trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov and published between 1995 and 2022 were included. Overall, women accounted for 66 875 (45%) of the 147 136 participants. Women's participation in clinical trials was lower than their representation in the underlying CKD population globally (55%). The PPR was 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.78), with no significant variation irrespective of mean age, CKD stage, dialysis, location, type of intervention or funding agency. A total of 39 (20%) trials reported sex-disaggregated efficacy outcomes and none reported sex-disaggregated safety outcomes.

Conclusion

Women's participation in CKD clinical trials was lower than their representation in the underlying CKD population. Sex-disaggregated efficacy and safety outcomes were rarely reported. Improving women's enrolment into clinical trials is crucial to enable sex- and gender-disaggregated analysis and thus identify potential differences in treatment response between women and men.

Effect of Hemodiafiltration or Hemodialysis on Mortality in Kidney Failure

BACKGROUND

Several studies have suggested that patients with kidney failure may benefit from high-dose hemodiafiltration as compared with standard hemodialysis. However, given the limitations of the various published studies, additional data are needed.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic, multinational, randomized, controlled trial involving patients with kidney failure who had received high-flux hemodialysis for at least 3 months. All the patients were deemed to be candidates for a convection volume of at least 23 liters per session (as required for high-dose hemodiafiltration) and were able to complete patient-reported outcome assessments. The patients were assigned to receive high-dose hemodiafiltration or continuation of conventional high-flux hemodialysis. The primary outcome was death from any cause. Key secondary outcomes were cause-specific death, a composite of fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events, kidney transplantation, and recurrent all-cause or infection-related hospitalizations.

RESULTS

A total of 1360 patients underwent randomization: 683 to receive high-dose hemodiafiltration and 677 to receive high-flux hemodialysis. The median follow-up was 30 months (interquartile range, 27 to 38). The mean convection volume during the trial in the hemodiafiltration group was 25.3 liters per session. Death from any cause occurred in 118 patients (17.3%) in the hemodiafiltration group and in 148 patients (21.9%) in the hemodialysis group (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with kidney failure resulting in kidney-replacement therapy, the use of high-dose hemodiafiltration resulted in a lower risk of death from any cause than conventional high-flux hemodialysis. (Funded by the European Commission Research and Innovation; CONVINCE Dutch Trial Register number, NTR7138.).

Safety and Effectiveness of Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin Across GFR Levels in Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Study in Australia and Canada

Rationale & Objective

The benefit-risk profile of rivaroxaban versus warfarin for atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with chronic kidney disease is uncertain. We compared rivaroxaban with warfarin across the range of kidney function in adults with AF.

Study Design

Multicenter retrospective cohort.

Setting & Participants

Adults with AF and a measure of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); using administrative data from 5 jurisdictions across Australia and Canada (2011-2018). Kidney function was categorized as eGFR ≥60, 45-59, 30-44, and <30 mL/min/1.73 m². Patients receiving dialysis and kidney transplant recipients were excluded.

Exposures

New dispensation of either rivaroxaban or warfarin.

Outcomes

Composite (1) effectiveness outcome (all-cause death, ischemic stroke, or transient ischemic attack) and (2) major bleeding events (intracranial, gastrointestinal, or other) at 1 year.

Analytical Approach

Cox proportional hazards models accounting for propensity score matching were performed independently in each jurisdiction and then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

Results

55,568 patients (27,784 rivaroxaban-warfarin user matched pairs; mean age 74 years, 46% female, 33.5% with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m²) experienced a total of 4,733 (8.5%) effectiveness and 1,144 (2.0%) bleeding events. Compared to warfarin, rivaroxaban was associated with greater or similar effectiveness across a broad range of kidney function (pooled HRs of 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66-0.78], 0.78 [95% CI, 0.58-1.06], 0.70 [95% CI, 0.57-0.87], and 0.78 [95% CI, 0.62-0.99]) for eGFR ≥60, 45-59, 30-44, and <30 mL/min/1.73 m², respectively). Rivaroxaban was also associated with similar risk of major bleeding across all eGFR categories (pooled HRs of 0.75 [95% CI, 0.56-1.00], 1.01 [95% CI, 0.79-1.30], 0.87 [95% CI, 0.66-1.15], and 0.63 [95% CI, 0.37-1.09], respectively).

Limitations

Unmeasured treatment selection bias and residual confounding.

Conclusions

In adults with AF, rivaroxaban compared with warfarin was associated with lower or similar risk of all-cause death, ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack and similar risk of bleeding across a broad range of kidney function.

Plain-Language Summary

This real-world study involved a large cohort of 55,568 adults with atrial fibrillation from 5 jurisdictions across Australia and Canada. It showed that the favorable safety (bleeding) and effectiveness (stroke or death) profile of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin was consistent across different levels of kidney function. This study adds important safety data on the use of rivaroxaban in patients with reduced kidney function, including those with estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m² in whom the risks and benefits of rivaroxaban use is most uncertain. Overall, the study supports the use of rivaroxaban as a safe and effective alternative to warfarin for atrial fibrillation across differing levels of kidney function.

The sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor canagliflozin does not increase risk of non-genital skin and soft tissue infections in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A pooled post hoc analysis from the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE randomized double-blind trials

AIMS

To assess whether the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor canagliflozin affects risk of non-genital skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a post hoc pooled individual participant analysis of the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE trials that randomized people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk and/or with chronic kidney disease to either canagliflozin or placebo. Investigator-reported adverse events were assessed by two blinded authors following predetermined criteria for non-genital SSTIs. Risks of non-genital SSTIs, overall and within prespecified subgroups, and risk of non-genital fungal SSTIs, were analysed using Cox regression models. Factors associated with non-genital SSTIs were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 903 of 14 531 participants (6%) experienced non-genital SSTIs over a median follow-up of 26 months. No difference was observed in non-genital SSTI rates between canagliflozin and placebo (24.0 events/1000 person-years vs. 23.9 events/1000 person-years, respectively; hazard ratio [HR] 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-1.11; P = 0.70), with consistent results across subgroups (all P interaction > 0.05). The risk of recurrent events and non-genital fungal infection also did not differ significantly between canagliflozin and placebo (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.94-1.19 [P = 0.32] and HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.88-1.60 [P = 0.27], respectively). Baseline factors independently associated with non-genital SSTIs were younger age, male sex, higher body mass index, higher glycated haemoglobin, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), established peripheral vascular disease, and history of neuropathy.

CONCLUSIONS

Canagliflozin did not affect risk of non-genital SSTIs or non-genital fungal SSTIs compared with placebo. These findings suggest that any SGLT2 inhibitor-mediated change in skin microenvironment is unlikely to have meaningful clinical consequences.

Sex differences in cardiovascular complications and mortality in hospital patients with covid-19: registry based observational study

Objective

To assess whether the risk of cardiovascular complications of covid-19 differ between the sexes and to determine whether any sex differences in risk are reduced in individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular disease.

Design

Registry based observational study.

Setting

74 hospitals across 13 countries (eight European) participating in CAPACITY-COVID (Cardiac complicAtions in Patients With SARS Corona vIrus 2 regisTrY), from March 2020 to May 2021.

Participants

All adults (aged ≥18 years), predominantly European, admitted to hospital with highly suspected covid-19 disease or covid-19 disease confirmed by positive laboratory test results (n=11 167 patients).

Main outcome measures

Any cardiovascular complication during admission to hospital. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and individual cardiovascular complications with ≥20 events for each sex. Logistic regression was used to examine sex differences in the risk of cardiovascular outcomes, overall and grouped by pre-existing cardiovascular disease.

Results

Of 11 167 adults (median age 68 years, 40% female participants) included, 3423 (36% of whom were female participants) had pre-existing cardiovascular disease. In both sexes, the most common cardiovascular complications were supraventricular tachycardias (4% of female participants, 6% of male participants), pulmonary embolism (3% and 5%), and heart failure (decompensated or de novo) (2% in both sexes). After adjusting for age, ethnic group, pre-existing cardiovascular disease, and risk factors for cardiovascular disease, female individuals were less likely than male individuals to have a cardiovascular complication (odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.80) or die (0.65, 0.59 to 0.72). Differences between the sexes were not modified by pre-existing cardiovascular disease; for the primary outcome, the female-to-male ratio of the odds ratio in those without, compared with those with, pre-existing cardiovascular disease was 0.84 (0.67 to 1.07).

Conclusions

In patients admitted to hospital for covid-19, female participants were less likely than male participants to have a cardiovascular complication. The differences between the sexes could not be attributed to the lower prevalence of pre-existing cardiovascular disease in female individuals. The reasons for this advantage in female individuals requires further research.

Women's representation as authors of retracted papers in the biomedical sciences

Women are under-represented among authors of scientific papers. Although the number of retractions has been rising over the past few decades, gender differences among authors of retracted papers remain poorly understood. Therefore, this study investigated gender differences in authorship of retracted papers in biomedical sciences available on RetractionWatch. Among 35,635 biomedical articles retracted between 1970 and 2022, including 20,849 first authors and 20,413 last authors, women accounted for 27.4% [26.8 to 28.0] of first authors and 23.5% [22.9 to 24.1] of last authors. The lowest representation of women was found for fraud (18.9% [17.1 to 20.9] for first authors and 13.5% [11.9 to 15.1] for last authors) and misconduct (19.5% [17.3 to 21.9] for first authors and 17.8% [15.7 to 20.3] for last authors). Women's representation was the highest for issues related to editors and publishers (35.1% [32.2 to 38.0] for first authors and 24.8% [22.9 to 26.8] for last authors) and errors (29.5% [28.0 to 31.0] for first authors and 22.1% [20.7 to 23.4] for last authors). Most retractions (60.9%) had men as first and last authors. Gender equality could improve research integrity in biomedical sciences.

Angiotensin receptor blockers for the treatment of covid-19: pragmatic, adaptive, multicentre, phase 3, randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether disrupting the renin angiotensin system with angiotensin receptor blockers will improve clinical outcomes in people with covid-19.

DESIGN

CLARITY was a pragmatic, adaptive, multicentre, phase 3, randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

17 hospital sites in India and Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were at least 18 years old, previously untreated with angiotensin receptor blockers, with a laboratory confirmed diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection who had been admitted to hospital for management of covid-19.

INTERVENTION

Oral angiotensin receptor blockers (telmisartan in India) or placebo (1:1) for 28 days.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary endpoint was covid-19 disease severity using a modified World Health Organization Clinical Progression Scale (WHO scale) at day 14. Secondary outcomes were WHO scale scores at day 28, mortality, intensive care unit admission, and respiratory failure. Analyses were evaluated on an ordinal scale in the intention-to-treat population.

RESULTS

Between 3 May 2020 and 13 November 2021, 2930 people were screened for eligibility, with 393 randomly assigned to angiotensin receptor blockers (of which 388 (98.7%) to telmisartan 40 mg/day) and 394 to the control group. 787 participants were randomised: 778 (98.9%) from India and nine (1.1%) from Australia. The median WHO scale score at day 14 was 1 (interquartile range 1-1) in 384 participants assigned angiotensin receptor blockers and 1 (1-1) in 382 participants assigned placebo (adjusted odds ratio 1.51 (95% credible interval 1.02 to 2.23), probability of an odds ratio of >1 (Pr(OR>1)=0.98). WHO scale scores at day 28 showed little evidence of difference between groups (1.02 (0.55 to 1.87), Pr(OR>1)=0.53). The trial was stopped when a prespecified futility rule was met.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients admitted to hospital for covid-19, mostly with mild disease, not requiring oxygen, no evidence of benefit, based on disease severity score, was found for treatment with angiotensin receptor blockers, using predominantly 40 mg/day of telmisartan.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04394117.

Sex Differences in CKD-Associated Mortality From 1990 to 2019: Data From the Global Burden of Disease Study

Rationale & Objective

Previous studies have shown chronic kidney disease (CKD) mortality rates to be lower among females than males. We aimed to examine the extent to which sex differences vary over time, among countries, and with age, using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data.

Study Design

Observational epidemiological study.

Setting & Participants

GBD Study, which used published literature, vital registration systems, kidney replacement therapy registries, and household surveys.

Exposures

Sex.

Outcomes

CKD-associated mortality rate (per 100,000 population).

Analytical Approach

Changes in CKD mortality between 1990 and 2019 were compared between sexes, globally, and separately for the 50 most populous countries. For 2019 only, sex differences in age-standardized and age-specific mortality were compared between countries.

Results

There was no change in global age-standardized mortality for either sex between 1990 and 2019, with female mortality consistently 30% lower than male mortality. Percentage changes were less favorable among females than males in two-thirds of the 50 countries examined, with the greatest change disparities observed in Egypt, Thailand, and Malaysia. Although Mexico exhibited the greatest overall percentage increase, the increase was smaller in females (81% vs 138%). In 2019, female mortality varied between 47% lower and 60% higher than male mortality (in Angola and Egypt, respectively). In most countries, female mortality was lower across all age groups, with no narrowing of sex differences with age.

Limitations

We were not able to assess the sex differences according to CKD stage and we did not explore other disease metrics (eg, disability-adjusted life years).

Conclusions

Percentage changes in age-standardized CKD mortality have tended to be less favorable among females than males, with notable exceptions. Similarly, although female mortality is generally lower than male mortality, there are multiple examples of the opposite. Country-specific assessments of sex differences in CKD-associated outcomes are essential for equitable care.

Canagliflozin and atrial fibrillation in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A secondary analysis from the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE trial and meta-analysis

AIM

To assess the effects of canagliflozin on the incidence of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) and other key cardiorenal outcomes in a pooled analysis of the CANVAS and CREDENCE trials.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Participants with type 2 diabetes and high risk of cardiovascular disease or chronic kidney disease were included and randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo. We explored the effects of canagliflozin on the incidence of first AF/AFL events and AF/AFL-related complications (ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack/hospitalization for heart failure). Major adverse cardiovascular events and a renal-specific outcome by baseline AF/AFL status were analysed using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 354 participants experienced a first AF/AFL event. Canagliflozin had no detectable effect on AF/AFL (hazard ratio [HR] 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-1.02) compared with placebo. Subgroup analysis, however, suggested a possible reduction in AF/AFL in those with no AF/AFL history (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99). Canagliflozin was also associated with a reduction in AF/AFL-related complications (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.65-0.86). There was no evidence of treatment heterogeneity by baseline AF/AFL history for other key cardiorenal outcomes (all P_interaction  > 0.14). Meta-analysis of five sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor trials demonstrated a 19% reduction in AF/AFL events with active treatment (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, a significant effect of canagliflozin on the incidence of AF/AFL events could not be shown, however, a possible reduction in AF/AFL events in those with no prior history requires further investigation. Meta-analysis suggests SGLT2 inhibition reduces AF/AFL incidence.

Nation-Wide Routinely Collected Health Datasets in China: A Scoping Review

Objectives: The potential for using routinely collected data for medical research in China remains unclear. We sought to conduct a scoping review to systematically characterise nation-wide routinely collected datasets in China that may be of value for clinical research.

Methods: We searched public databases and the websites of government agencies, and non-government organizations. We included nation-wide routinely collected databases related to communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, and maternal and child health. Database characteristics, including disease area, data custodianship, data volume, frequency of update and accessibility were extracted and summarised.

Results: There were 70 databases identified, of which 46 related to communicable diseases, 20 to non-communicable diseases, 1 to injury and 3 to maternal and child health. The data volume varied from below 1000 to over 100,000 records. Over half (64%) of the databases were accessible for medical research mostly comprising communicable diseases.

Conclusion: There are large quantities of routinely collected data in China. Challenges to using such data in medical research remain with various accessibility. The potential of routinely collected data may also be applicable to other low- and middle-income countries.

Contextualising sex and gender research to improve women's health: An early- and mid-career researcher perspective

The field of sex and gender research in health and medicine is growing, and many early- and mid-career researchers (EMCRs) are developing skills in this area. As EMCRs specialising in sex and gender research, we aim to better understand sex- and gender-based determinants of human health, challenge long-standing and pervasive gender biases, and contribute to improving the evidence base upon which clinical guidelines and policy interventions are developed. To effectively achieve these goals, we believe that EMCRs would benefit from understanding the challenges of working in this space and participate in driving change in three key areas. First, in creating greater links between the goals of sex and gender research and addressing systemic bias against women and gender minorities, to effectively translate knowledge about sex and gender differences into improved health outcomes. Second, in expanding the reach of sex and gender research to address women's health in an intersectional way and ensure that it also benefits the health of men, transgender and gender-diverse people and those who are intersex. Third, in working with others in the scientific community to improve methods for sex and gender research, including updating data collection practises, ensuring appropriate statistical analyses and shifting scientific culture to recognise the importance of null findings. By improving focus on these three areas, we see greater potential to translate this research to improve women's health and reduce health inequities for all.

Controlled evaLuation of Angiotensin Receptor Blockers for COVID-19 respIraTorY disease (CLARITY): statistical analysis plan for a randomised controlled Bayesian adaptive sample size trial

The CLARITY trial (Controlled evaLuation of Angiotensin Receptor Blockers for COVID-19 respIraTorY disease) is a two-arm, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial being run in India and Australia that investigates the effectiveness of angiotensin receptor blockers in addition to standard care compared to placebo (in Indian sites) with standard care in reducing the duration and severity of lung failure in patients with COVID-19. The trial was designed as a Bayesian adaptive sample size trial with regular planned analyses where pre-specified decision rules will be assessed to determine whether the trial should be stopped due to sufficient evidence of treatment effectiveness or futility. Here, we describe the statistical analysis plan for the trial and define the pre-specified decision rules, including those that could lead to the trial being halted. The primary outcome is clinical status on a 7-point ordinal scale adapted from the WHO Clinical Progression scale assessed at day 14. The primary analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle. A Bayesian adaptive trial design was selected because there is considerable uncertainty about the extent of potential benefit of this treatment.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04394117. Registered on 19 May 2020Clinical Trial Registry of India CTRI/2020/07/026831

Version and revisions

Version 1.0. No revisions.

Prior Cardiovascular Treatments-A Key Characteristic in Determining Medication Adherence After an Acute Myocardial Infarction

Objective: To investigate long-term adherence to guideline-recommended cardioprotective medications following hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and identify characteristics associated with adherence.

Methods: An Australian population-based cohort study was used to identify participants who had their first AMI between 2006 and 2014 and were alive after 12 months. Linked routinely collected hospital, and prescription medication claims data was used to study adherence over time. Predictors and rates of adherence to both lipid-lowering medication and renin-angiotensin system blockade at 12 months post-AMI was assessed.

Results: 14,200 people (mean age 69.9 years, 38.7% female) were included in our analysis. At 12 months post-AMI, 29.5% (95% CI: 28.8–30.3%) of people were adherent to both classes of medication. Individuals receiving treatment with both lipid-lowering medication and renin-angiotensin system blockade during the 6 months prior to their AMI were over 9 times more likely to be adherent to both medications at 12 months post-AMI (66.2% 95% CI: 64.8–67.5%) compared to those with no prior medication use (treatment naïve) (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.4–7.9%). Prior cardiovascular treatment was the strongest predictor of long-term adherence even after adjusting for age, sex, education and income.

Conclusions: Despite efforts to improve long-term medication adherence in patients who have experienced an acute coronary event, considerable gaps remain. Of particular concern are people who are commencing guideline-recommended cardioprotective medication at the time of their AMI. The relationship between prior cardiovascular treatments and post AMI adherence offers insight into the support needs for the patient. Health care intervention strategies, strengthened by enabling policies, are needed to provide support to patients through the initial months following their AMI.

Risk Factors for Fracture in Patients with Coexisting Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes: An Observational Analysis from the CREDENCE Trial

BACKGROUND

The fracture pathophysiology associated with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is incompletely understood. We examined individual fracture predictors and prediction sets based on different pathophysiological hypotheses, testing whether any of the sets improved prediction beyond that based on traditional osteoporotic risk factors.

METHODS

Within the CREDENCE cohort with adjudicated fracture outcomes, we assessed the association of individual factors with fracture using Cox regression models. We used the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Schwartz Bayes Criterion (SBC) to assess six separate variable sets based on hypothesized associations with fracture, namely, traditional osteoporosis, exploratory general population findings, cardiovascular risk, CKD-mineral and bone disorder, diabetic osteodystrophy, and an all-inclusive set containing all variables.

RESULTS

Fracture occurred in 135 (3.1%) participants over a median 2.35 [1.88-2.93] years. Independent fracture predictors were older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.06), female sex (HR 2.49, CI 1.70-3.65), previous fracture (HR 2.30, CI 1.58-3.34), Asian race (HR 1.74, CI 1.09-2.78), vitamin D therapy requirement (HR 2.05, CI 1.31-3.21), HbA1c (HR 1.14, CI 1.00-1.32), prior cardiovascular event (HR 1.60, CI 1.10-2.33), and serum albumin (HR 0.41, CI 0.23-0.74) (lower albumin associated with greater risk). The goodness of fit of the various hypothesis sets was similar (AIC range 1870.92-1849.51, SBC range 1875.60-1948.04).

CONCLUSION

Independent predictors of fracture were identified in the CREDENCE participants with type 2 diabetes and CKD. Fracture prediction was not improved by models built on alternative pathophysiology hypotheses compared with traditional osteoporosis predictors.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in Asia: a systematic review and analysis

INTRODUCTION

The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is growing rapidly around the world. However, there is limited information on the overall regional prevalence of CKD, as well as the variations in national prevalence within Asia. We aimed to consolidate available data and quantify estimates of the CKD burden in this region.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase and Google Scholar for observational studies and contacted national experts to estimate CKD prevalence in countries of Asia (Eastern, Southern and South Eastern Asia). CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or the presence of proteinuria. For countries without reported data, we estimated CKD prevalence using agglomerative average-linkage hierarchical clustering, based on country-level risk factors and random effects meta-analysis within clusters. Published CKD prevalence data were obtained for 16 countries (of the 26 countries in the region) and estimates were made for 10 countries.

RESULTS

There was substantial variation in overall and advanced (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2) CKD prevalence (range: 7.0%-34.3% and 0.1%-17.0%, respectively). Up to an estimated 434.3 million (95% CI 350.2 to 519.7) adults have CKD in Asia, including up to 65.6 million (95% CI 42.2 to 94.9) who have advanced CKD. The greatest number of adults living with CKD were in China (up to 159.8 million, 95% CI 146.6 to 174.1) and India (up to 140.2 million, 95% CI 110.7 to 169.7), collectively having 69.1% of the total number of adults with CKD in the region.

CONCLUSION

The large number of people with CKD, and the substantial number with advanced CKD, show the need for urgent collaborative action in Asia to prevent and manage CKD and its complications.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

Previous reports on the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Asia have suggested important sex disparities but have been inconsistent in nature. We sought to synthesize available sex-disaggregated CKD prevalence data in Asia to quantify sex disparities in the region.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase for observational studies involving ≥500 adults who reported sex-disaggregated CKD prevalence data in any of the 26 countries in East, Southeast and South Asia. For each study we calculated the female:male prevalence ratio (PR), with a ratio >1 indicating a higher female prevalence. For each country, log-transformed PRs were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. These were then combined using a fixed effects model, weighting by population size, to estimate a pooled PR for each of East, Southeast and South Asia and Asia overall.

Results

Sex-disaggregated data were available from 171 cohorts, spanning 15 countries and comprising 2 550 169 females and 2 595 299 males. Most studies (75.4%) came from East Asia (China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea). Across Asia, CKD prevalence was higher in females {pooled prevalence 13.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 11.3–14.9]} compared with males [pooled prevalence 12.1% (95% CI 10.3–14.1)], with a pooled PR of 1.07 (95% CI 0.99–1.17). Substantial heterogeneity was observed between countries. The pooled PRs for East, Southeast and South Asia were 1.11 (95% CI 1.02–1.21), 1.09 (0.88–1.36) and 1.03 (0.87–1.22), respectively.

Conclusions

Current evidence suggests considerable between-country and -region heterogeneity in the female:male PR of CKD. However, there remains a large part of the region where data on sex-specific CKD prevalence are absent or limited. Country-level assessment of the differential burden of CKD in females and males is needed to define locally relevant policies that address the needs of both sexes.

Sex and Gender in COVID-19 Vaccine Research: Substantial Evidence Gaps Remain

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a global call for sex/gender-disaggregated data to be made available, which has uncovered important findings about COVID-19 testing, incidence, severity, hospitalisations, and deaths. This mini review scopes the evidence base for efficacy, effectiveness, and safety of COVID-19 vaccines from both experimental and observational research, and asks whether (1) women and men were equally recruited and represented in vaccine research, (2) the outcomes of studies were presented or analysed by sex and/or gender, and (3) there is evidence of sex and/or gender differences in outcomes. Following a PubMed search, 41 articles were eligible for inclusion, including seven randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 11 cohort studies, eight cross-sectional surveys, eight routine surveillance studies, and seven case series. Overall, the RCTs contained equal representation of women and men; however, the observational studies contained a higher percentage of women. Of 10 studies with efficacy data, only three (30%) presented sex/gender-disaggregated results. Safety data was included in 35 studies and only 12 (34%) of these presented data by sex/gender. For those that did present disaggregated data, overall, the majority of participants reporting adverse events were women. There is a paucity of reporting and analysis of COVID-19 vaccine data by sex/gender. Research should be designed in a gender-sensitive way to present and, where possible analyse, data by sex/gender to ensure that there is a robust and specific evidence base of efficacy and safety data to assist in building public confidence and promote high vaccine coverage.

Effects of canagliflozin compared with placebo on major adverse cardiovascular and kidney events in patient groups with different baseline levels of HbA1c, disease duration and treatment intensity: results from the CANVAS Program

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Type 2 diabetes mellitus can manifest over a broad clinical range, although there is no clear consensus on the categorisation of disease complexity. We assessed the effects of canagliflozin, compared with placebo, on cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in the CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program over a range of type 2 diabetes mellitus complexity, defined separately by baseline intensity of treatment, duration of diabetes and glycaemic control.

METHODS

We performed a post hoc analysis of the effects of canagliflozin on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) according to baseline glucose-lowering treatments (0 or 1, 2 or 3+ non-insulin glucose-lowering treatments, or insulin-based treatment), duration of diabetes (<10, 10 to 16, >16 years) and HbA_1c (≤53.0 mmol/mol [<7.0%], >53.0 to 58.5 mmol/mol [>7.0% to 7.5%], >58.5 to 63.9 mmol/mol [>7.5 to 8.0%], >63.9 to 69.4 mmol/mol [8.0% to 8.5%], >69.4 to 74.9 mmol/mol [>8.5 to 9.0%] or >74.9 mmol/mol [>9.0%]). We analysed additional secondary endpoints for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes, including a combined kidney outcome of sustained 40% decline in eGFR, end-stage kidney disease or death due to kidney disease. We used Cox regression analyses and compared the constancy of HRs across subgroups by fitting an interaction term (p value for significance <0.05).

RESULTS

At study initiation, 5095 (50%) CANVAS Program participants were treated with insulin, 2100 (21%) had an HbA_1c > 74.9 mmol/mol (9.0%) and the median duration of diabetes was 12.6 years (interquartile interval 8.0-18 years). Canagliflozin reduced MACE (HR 0.86 [95% CI 0.75, 0.97]) with no evidence that the benefit differed between subgroups defined by the number of glucose-lowering treatments, the duration of diabetes or baseline HbA_1c (all p-heterogeneity >0.17). Canagliflozin reduced MACE in participants receiving insulin with no evidence that the benefit differed from other participants in the trial (HR 0.85 [95% CI 0.72, 1.00]). Similar results were observed for other cardiovascular outcomes and for the combined kidney outcome (HR for combined kidney outcome 0.60 [95% CI 0.47, 0.77]), with all p-heterogeneity >0.37.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In people with type 2 diabetes mellitus at high cardiovascular risk, there was no evidence that cardiovascular and renal protection with canagliflozin differed across subgroups defined by baseline treatment intensity, duration of diabetes or HbA_1c.

Protocol for the Controlled evaLuation of Angiotensin Receptor blockers for COVID-19 respIraTorY disease (CLARITY): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 binds to membrane-bound angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) which may result in downregulation of membrane-bound ACE2. ACE2 is a key regulator of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) and is responsible for degrading angiotensin II and thereby counteracting its pro-inflammatory, pro-fibrotic effects mediated through the angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R). As AT1R is directly blocked by angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), these agents may offer a safe, low-cost solution for reducing COVID-19 respiratory outcomes.

METHODS AND DISCUSSION

CLARITY is a pragmatic, adaptive, two-arm, multi-centre, comparative effectiveness phase III randomised controlled trial that examines whether ARBs reduce COVID-19 severity among high-risk patients. Recruiting in India and Australia, the trial will compare treatment with a maximum tolerated daily dose of an ARB to standard of care. Treatment allocation is blinded in India but open-label in Australia due to interruptions to placebo supply in the latter. The primary endpoint is a 7-point ordinal scale of clinical states, ranging from no limitation of activities (category 1) to death (category 7), assessed on day 14. Secondary outcomes include the 7-point scale assessed at day 28 and 28- and 90-day mortality. The design adapts the sample size based on accumulating data via frequent interim analyses and the use of predictive probability to determine whether the current sample size is sufficient or continuing accrual would be futile. The trial commenced recruitment on 18 August 2020.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04394117 . Registered on 19 May 2020. Clinical Trial Registry of India: CTRI/2020/07/026831).

Kidney, Cardiovascular, and Safety Outcomes of Canagliflozin according to Baseline Albuminuria: A CREDENCE Secondary Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The kidney protective effects of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors are greater in people with higher levels of albuminuria at treatment initiation. Whether this applies to sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors is uncertain, particularly in patients with a very high urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR; ≥3000 mg/g). We examined the association between baseline UACR and the effects of the SGLT2 inhibitor, canagliflozin, on efficacy and safety outcomes in the Canagliflozin and Renal Endpoints in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) randomized controlled trial.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

The study enrolled 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes, an eGFR of 30 to <90 ml/min per 1.73 m², and UACR of >300 to 5000 mg/g. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we examined the relative and absolute effects of canagliflozin on kidney, cardiovascular, and safety outcomes according to a baseline UACR of ≤1000 mg/g (n=2348), >1000 to <3000 mg/g (n=1547), and ≥3000 mg/g (n=506). In addition, we examined the effects of canagliflozin on UACR itself, eGFR slope, and the intermediate outcomes of glycated hemoglobin, body weight, and systolic BP.

RESULTS

Overall, higher UACR was associated with higher rates of kidney and cardiovascular events. Canagliflozin reduced efficacy outcomes for all UACR levels, with no evidence that relative benefits varied between levels. For example, canagliflozin reduced the primary composite outcome by 24% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.56 to 1.04) in the lowest UACR subgroup, 28% (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.93) in the UACR subgroup >1000 to <3000 mg/g, and 37% (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.84) in the highest subgroup (P_{heterogeneity}=0.55). Absolute risk reductions for kidney outcomes were greater in participants with higher baseline albuminuria; the number of primary composite events prevented across ascending UACR categories were 17 (95% CI, 3 to 38), 45 (95% CI, 9 to 81), and 119 (95% CI, 35 to 202) per 1000 treated participants over 2.6 years (P_{heterogeneity}=0.02). Rates of kidney-related adverse events were lower with canagliflozin, with a greater relative reduction in higher UACR categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Canagliflozin safely reduces kidney and cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes and severely increased albuminuria. In this population, the relative kidney benefits were consistent over a range of albuminuria levels, with greatest absolute kidney benefit in those with an UACR ≥3000 mg/g.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov: CREDENCE, NCT02065791.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2021_02_22_CJN15260920_final.mp3.

Blood Pressure Effects of Canagliflozin and Clinical Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease: Insights From the CREDENCE Trial

BACKGROUND

People with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease experience a high burden of hypertension, but the magnitude and consistency of blood pressure (BP) lowering with canagliflozin in this population are uncertain. Whether the effects of canagliflozin on kidney and cardiovascular outcomes vary by baseline BP or BP-lowering therapy is also unknown.

METHODS

The CREDENCE trial (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) randomized people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease to canagliflozin or placebo. In a post hoc analysis, we investigated the effect of canagliflozin on systolic BP across subgroups defined by baseline systolic BP, number of BP-lowering drug classes, and history of apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (BP ≥130/80 mm Hg while receiving ≥3 classes of BP-lowering drugs, including a diuretic). We also assessed whether effects on clinical outcomes differed across these subgroups.

RESULTS

The trial included 4401 participants, of whom 3361 (76.4%) had baseline systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg, and 1371 (31.2%) had resistant hypertension. By week 3, canagliflozin reduced systolic BP by 3.50 mm Hg (95% CI, -4.27 to -2.72), an effect maintained over the duration of the trial, with similar reductions across BP and BP-lowering therapy subgroups (all P interaction ≥0.05). Canagliflozin also reduced the need for initiation of additional BP-lowering agents during the trial (hazard ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.61-0.75]). The effect of canagliflozin on kidney failure, doubling of serum creatinine, or death caused by kidney or cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.59-0.82]) was consistent across BP and BP-lowering therapy subgroups (all P interaction ≥0.35), as were effects on other key kidney, cardiovascular, and safety outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, canagliflozin lowers systolic BP across all BP-defined subgroups and reduces the need for additional BP-lowering agents. These findings support use of canagliflozin for end-organ protection and as an adjunct BP-lowering therapy in people with chronic kidney disease. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02065791.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the care and management of patients with acute cardiovascular disease: a systematic review

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare services around the world, which may have serious implications for the prognosis of patients with acute cardiovascular disease. We conducted a systematic review to assess the extent to which health services related to the care and management of acute cardiovascular events have been impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

PubMed, MedRxiv and Google Scholar were searched for observational studies published up to August 12, 2020 for studies that assessed the impact of the pandemic on the care and management of people with acute CVD.

Results

In total, 27 articles were included. Of these, 16 examined the impact on acute coronary syndromes (ACS), eight on strokes, one on ACS and strokes, and 2 on other types of CVD. When comparing the COVID-19 period to non-COVID-19 periods, eleven studies observed a decrease in ACS admissions ranging between 40 and 50% and five studies showed a decrease in stroke admissions of between 12 and 40%. Four studies showed a larger reduction in non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarctions (NSTEMI) compared to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarctions (STEMI). A decrease in the number of reperfusion procedures, a shortening in the lengths of stay at the hospital, and longer symptom-to-door times were also observed.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a substantial decrease in the rate of admissions for acute CVD, reductions in the number of procedures, shortened lengths of stay at the hospital and longer delays between the onset of the symptoms and hospital treatment. The impact on patient’s prognosis needs to be quantified in future studies.

Prevalence, incidence and risk factors of diabetes in Australian adults aged ≥45 years: A cohort study using linked routinely-collected data

Aims

To use linked routinely-collected health data to estimate diabetes prevalence and incidence in an Australian cohort of adults aged ≥45 years, and examine risk factors associated with incident disease.

Research design and methods

The EXamining ouTcomEs in chroNic Disease in the 45 and Up Study (EXTEND45) Study is a linked data study that combines baseline questionnaire responses from the population-based 45 and Up Study (2006–2009, n = 267,153) with multiple routinely-collected health databases up to December 2014. Among participants with ≥1 linked result for any laboratory test, diabetes status was determined from multiple data sources according to standard biochemical criteria, use of glucose-lowering medication or self-report, and the prevalence and incidence rate calculated. Independent risk factors of incident diabetes were examined using multivariable Cox regression.

Results

Among 152,169 45 and Up Study participants with ≥1 linked laboratory result in the EXTEND45 database (mean age 63.0 years; 54.9% female), diabetes prevalence was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.6%–10.9%). Incident disease in those without diabetes at baseline (n = 135,810; mean age 62.5 years; 56.1% female) was 10.0 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 9.8–10.2). In all age groups, diabetes incidence was lower in women compared to men, an association that persisted in the fully adjusted analyses. Other independent risk factors of diabetes were older age, being born outside of Australia (with the highest rate of 19.2 per 1,000 person-years observed in people born in South and Central Asia), lower education status, lower annual household income, residence in a major city, family history of diabetes, personal history of cardiovascular disease or hypertension, higher body mass index, smoking and long sleeping hours.

Conclusions

Our study represents an efficient approach to assessing diabetes frequency and its risk factors in the community. The infrastructure provided by the EXTEND45 Study will be useful for diabetes surveillance and examining other important clinical and epidemiological questions.

Risk Factors for Incident Kidney Disease in Older Adults: an Australian Prospective Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to determine risk factors for incident CKD in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS

This prospective opt-in population-based cohort study is based on the 45 and Up Study, where New South Wales residents aged ≥45 years were randomly sampled from the Services Australia enrolment database and agreed to complete the 45 and Up Study baseline questionnaire and have their responses linked to their health data in routinely-collected databases. The primary outcome was the development of incident CKD, defined as eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m² . CKD incidence was calculated using Poisson regression. Risk factors for incident CKD were assessed using Cox regression in multivariable models.

RESULTS

In 39,574 participants who did not have CKD at enrolment, independent factors associated with developing CKD included: older age, regional residence (HR 1.38 [1.27-1.50] for outer regional versus major city), smoking (1.13 [1.00-1.27] for current smoker versus non-smoker), obesity (1.25 [1.16-1.35] for obese versus normal body mass index), diabetes mellitus (1.41 [1.33-1.50]), hypertension (1.53 [1.44-1.62]), coronary heart disease (1.13 [1.07-1.20]), depression/anxiety (1.16 [1.09-1.24]), and cancer (1.29 [1.20-1.39]). Migrants were less likely to develop CKD compared with people born in Australia (0.88 [0.83-0.94]). Gender, partner status and socioeconomic factors were not independently associated with developing CKD.

CONCLUSIONS

This large population-based study found multiple modifiable and non-modifiable factors were independently associated with developing CKD. In the Australian setting, the risk of CKD was higher with regional residence. Differences according to socioeconomic status were predominantly explained by age, comorbidities and harmful health-related behaviours This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

P1013CANAGLIFLOZIN AND RISK OF GENITAL INFECTIONS AND URINARY TRACT INFECTIONS IN PEOPLE WITH DIABETES MELLITUS AND KIDNEY DISEASE- A POST-HOC ANALYSIS OF THE CREDENCE TRIAL

Background and Aims

To describe genital mycotic infections (GMI) and urinary tract infections (UTI) in the CREDENCE trial, determine whether canagliflozin increased the risk of these infections overall and in subgroups, and describe predictors of risk for genital mycotic infections.

Method

The CREDENCE trial randomised people with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric stage 2 and 3 chronic kidney disease to canagliflozin 100mg daily or placebo. We analysed the risk of GMI and UTI with canagliflozin compared to placebo overall and in patient subgroups. The primary analysis was conducted in the on-treatment population, as the more conservative approach with sensitivity analyses conducted using an intention-to-treat population. When canagliflozin increased risk, we determined patient risk factors for GMIs using multivariable Cox regression models adjusting for age, gender, race, markers of disease severity (body mass index (BMI), haemoglobin A1c, diabetes duration, other glucose lowering medications at baseline and kidney function).

Results

Overall 31/2905 (1.1%) men and 32/1492 (2.1%) women experienced 91 GMIs and 166/2905 (5.7%) men and 300/1492 (20.1%) women experienced 669 UTIs. Canagliflozin increased the risk of GMI (HR 3.83 [95% CI 2.08-7.06] p&lt;0.0001). The hazard ratio for canagliflozin compared to placebo was consistent across most subgroups, though the risk with canagliflozin was greater in those with a higher BMI (HR 5.91 [95% CI 2.65-13.15] for BMI ≥30 kg/m2 vs HR 1.36 [95% CI 0.47-3.92] for BMI&lt;30 kg/m2, p interaction=0.03) and was higher in men (HR 9.30 [95% CI 2.83-30.60] vs HR 2.10 [95% CI 1.00-4.45] for men and women respectively, p interaction=0.04). In those who were randomised to canagliflozin, independent risk factors for GMI were higher BMI (HR 1.53 [95% CI 1.29-1.83] per 5 units p&lt;0.0001) and longer diabetes duration (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.01-1.40] per 5 years p=0.04). Canagliflozin did not affect the risk of UTI over placebo (HR 1.08 [95% CI 0.90-1.29] p=0.42) overall or in any subgroup, however risk was higher in women (HR 1.23 [95% CI 0.98-1.54] vs HR 0.82 [0.60-1.11] for women and men respectively, p interaction=0.04).58/669 (8.7%) UTIs but no GMIs were reported as serious. Drug was continued in 56/63 (89%) of first GMIs, with similar frequency of subsequent GMI in those continuing on canagliflozin (13/43, 30.2%) or placebo (4/13, 30.8%). Drug was continued in 385/466 (82.6%) first UTIs, with similar frequency of subsequent UTIs in those continuing on cangliflozin (50/199 (25.1%) or placebo 49/186 (26.3%). All findings were similar when conducted using an intention-to-treat approach.

Conclusion

Canagliflozin increased the risk of genital mycotic infections but not urinary tract infections. The risk of genital mycotic infections from canagliflozin over placebo was higher in men and those with higher BMI. In those treated with canagliflozin, higher BMI and longer diabetes duration independently predicted infection. Most participants continued treatment following their first infection with similar recurrence rates in the canagliflozin and placebo groups.These findings will be useful in clinical care, and help identify those at greatest risk for genital infections with canagliflozin treatment.

P1028EFFECTS OF CANAGLIFLOZIN ON MAJOR ADVERSE CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS WITH DIFFERENT BASELINE LEVELS OF TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS DISEASE SEVERITY: RESULTS FROM THE CANVAS PROGRAM

Background and Aims

Patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) included in trials of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors are heterogeneous in terms of disease severity. We assessed the effects of canagliflozin compared to placebo on cardiovascular and renal outcomes in the CANVAS program according to severity of T2DM as indicated by intensity of treatment, duration of diabetes and glycaemic control.

Method

We compared effects on major adverse cardiovascular events ([MACE], defined as cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke) according to three indicators of T2DM severity at study baseline: number of oral glucose lowering treatments or insulin therapy (0-1, 2, 3+, insulin), duration of diabetes (&lt;10, 10-16, &gt;16 years) and HbA1c (&lt;7.0, 7.0-7.5, 7.5-8.0, 8.0-8.5, 8.5-9, &gt;9.0%). We also assessed effects on other pre-specified cardiovascular outcomes, and an adjudicated composite of end-stage kidney disease, renal death or sustained 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate. We assessed for constancy of hazard ratios across subgroups by fitting an interaction term that tested for linear trend.

Results

Of 10,142 participants in the CANVAS Program, 1011 experienced a MACE during a mean follow-up of 3.6 years. Event rates for MACE were higher in those with longer duration of diabetes and higher HbA1c at baseline. The effect of canagliflozin on MACE in the overall population (HR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.75-0.97) was consistent irrespective of the number of glucose lowering treatments (p=0.509), duration of diabetes (p=0.174) and baseline HbA1c (p =0.314). Effects were also consistent across different levels of T2DM disease severity for all other outcomes studied.

Conclusion

Higher event rates were observed in those with longer disease duration and higher HbA1c. The proportional risk reductions achieved with canagliflozin were comparable regardless of diabetes duration, number of therapies or HbA1C at baseline.

P1019CANAGLIFLOZIN AND RISK OF SKIN AND SOFT TISSUE INFECTIONS IN PEOPLE WITH DIABETES MELLITUS AND KIDNEY DISEASE - A POST-HOC ANALYSIS OF THE CREDENCE TRIAL

Background and Aims

The skin’s hypertonic microenvironment has a hypothesized protective antimicrobial function that may be disrupted by SGLT2i. The association between sodium glucose cotransporter inhibitors (SGLT2i) and genital mycotic infections is well established, but it is not known if these agents increase the risk of other skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI). We aimed to describe SSTI in the CREDENCE trial, and determine whether canagliflozin affects the risk of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) overall and in subgroups.

Method

We performed a post-hoc analysis of the CREDENCE trial that randomised people with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric stage 2 and 3 chronic kidney disease to either canagliflozin 100mg daily or placebo. Infections reported as adverse events were assessed by two blinded authors following predetermined criteria for SSTI with discrepancies resolved by consensus. We analysed the risks of SSTIs in the on-treatment population as the more conservative approach, with a sensitivity analysis conducted in the intention-to-treat population. Univariable time-to first-event regression models were assessed.

Results

Overall 373/4397 (8.5%) participants experienced 478 events comprising 252 bacterial skin infections (including 2 episodes of necrotising fasciitis), 94 fungal skin infections, 109 other skin infections and 23 soft tissue infections. Of these, 136/478 (28%) were serious. Drug was continued in 290/373 (78%) of first events, with similar frequency of subsequent events between groups (31/133 (23%) and 33/157 (21%) for those continuing canagliflozin and placebo respectively). In both cases of necrotising fasciitis, drug was withdrawn and the participants recovered.Canagliflozin did not increase the risk of SSTI (HR 0.85 [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.69-1.04] p=0.11) (Figure 1). Results were similar in the intention-to-treat population (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.73-1.07] p=0.20), in analyses confined to serious SSTI (HR 0.83 [95% CI 0.58-1.21] p=0.33), and in the predefined subgroups.

Conclusion

Although other studies suggest that SGLT2i may reduce the sodium content of the skin, we found that canagliflozin does not increase the risk of skin and soft tissue infections, overall or in any subgroup, in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus and albuminuric chronic kidney disease.

Incidence and Associations of Chronic Kidney Disease in Community Participants With Diabetes: A 5-Year Prospective Analysis of the EXTEND45 Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of and factors associated with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m² in people with diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We identified people with diabetes in the EXamining ouTcomEs in chroNic Disease in the 45 and Up Study (EXTEND45), a population-based cohort study (2006-2014) that linked the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study cohort to community laboratory and administrative data in New South Wales, Australia. The study outcome was the first eGFR measurement <60 mL/min/1.73 m² recorded during the follow-up period. Participants with eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² at baseline were excluded. We used Poisson regression to estimate the incidence of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² and multivariable Cox regression to examine factors associated with the study outcome.

RESULTS

Of 9,313 participants with diabetes, 2,106 (22.6%) developed incident eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² over a median follow-up time of 5.7 years (interquartile range, 3.0-5.9 years). The eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² incidence rate per 100 person-years was 6.0 (95% CI 5.7-6.3) overall, 1.5 (1.3-1.9) in participants aged 45-54 years, 3.7 (3.4-4.0) for 55-64 year olds, 7.6 (7.1-8.1) for 65-74 year olds, 15.0 (13.0-16.0) for 75-84 year olds, and 26.0 (22.0-32.0) for those aged 85 years and over. In a fully adjusted multivariable model incidence was independently associated with age (hazard ratio 1.23 per 5-year increase; 95% CI 1.19-1.26), geography (outer regional and remote versus major city: 1.36; 1.17-1.58), obesity (obese class III versus normal: 1.44; 1.16-1.80), and the presence of hypertension (1.52; 1.33-1.73), coronary heart disease (1.13; 1.02-1.24), cancer (1.30; 1.14-1.50), and depression/anxiety (1.14; 1.01-1.27).

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with diabetes, the incidence of an eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² was high. Older age, remoteness of residence, and the presence of various comorbid conditions were associated with higher incidence.

EXamining ouTcomEs in chroNic Disease in the 45 and Up Study (the EXTEND45 Study): Protocol for an Australian Linked Cohort Study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes are the major causes of death and disability worldwide. They are associated with high health service utilization persisting over many years. Their slow progression and wide clinical variation make them eminently suitable for study in population-based cohorts. However, current understanding of their prevalence, incidence, and progression is largely based on studies conducted in clinical populations.

Objective

This study aims to establish a novel link between an existing population-based cohort (the 45 and Up Study) and routinely collected laboratory and administrative data to facilitate research across the full disease spectrum of CKD and diabetes.

Methods

In the EXTEND45 Study (EXamining OuTcomEs in chroNic Disease in the 45 and Up Study), baseline questionnaire responses of over 260,000 participants of the 45 and Up Study aged ≥45 years living in New South Wales (NSW), collected between January 2006 and December 2009, are linked to data from laboratory service providers as well as national- and state-based administrative datasets via probabilistic linkage. Routinely collected data were obtained for participants who could be linked between January 2005 and July 2013. Laboratory data will enable the identification of early cases of chronic disease and the assessment of clinically relevant biochemical targets during the disease course. Health administrative datasets will allow for the examination of health service use, pharmacological management, and clinical outcomes.

Results

The study received ethics approval from the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee in February 2014. Data linkage for 267,153 of the 45 and Up Study participants was completed in June 2016, with congruent linkage achieved for 265,086 (99.23%) individuals. To date, the CKD and diabetes cohorts have been identified (published elsewhere), and a diverse portfolio of research projects relating to disease burden, risk factors, health outcomes, and health service utilization is in development.

Conclusions

The EXTEND45 Study represents an unparalleled opportunity to perform extensive research into diseases of considerable public health and clinical importance. Strengths include the population-based nature of the cohort and the availability of longitudinal information on the complete disease pathway for affected individuals.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR1-10.2196/15646

Estimating the burden of α-thalassaemia in Thailand using a comprehensive prevalence database for Southeast Asia

Severe forms of α-thalassaemia, haemoglobin H disease and haemoglobin Bart’s hydrops fetalis, are an important public health concern in Southeast Asia. Yet information on the prevalence, genetic diversity and health burden of α-thalassaemia in the region remains limited. We compiled a geodatabase of α-thalassaemia prevalence and genetic diversity surveys and, using geostatistical modelling methods, generated the first continuous maps of α-thalassaemia mutations in Thailand and sub-national estimates of the number of newborns with severe forms in 2020. We also summarised the current evidence-base for α-thalassaemia prevalence and diversity for the region. We estimate that 3595 (95% credible interval 1,717–6,199) newborns will be born with severe α-thalassaemia in Thailand in 2020, which is considerably higher than previous estimates. Accurate, fine-scale epidemiological data are necessary to guide sustainable national and regional health policies for α-thalassaemia management. Our maps and newborn estimates are an important first step towards this aim.

Editorial note: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

Understanding the contrasting spatial haplotype patterns of malaria-protective β-globin polymorphisms

The malaria-protective β-globin polymorphisms, sickle-cell (β(S)) and β(0)-thalassaemia, are canonical examples of human adaptation to infectious disease. Occurring on distinct genetic backgrounds, they vary markedly in their patterns of linked genetic variation at the population level, suggesting different evolutionary histories. β(S) is associated with five classical restriction fragment length polymorphism haplotypes that exhibit remarkable specificity in their geographical distributions; by contrast, β(0)-thalassaemia mutations are found on haplotypes whose distributions overlap considerably. Here, we explore why these two polymorphisms display contrasting spatial haplotypic distributions, despite having malaria as a common selective pressure. We present a meta-population genetic model, incorporating individual-based processes, which tracks the evolution of β-globin polymorphisms on different haplotypic backgrounds. Our simulations reveal that, depending on the rate of mutation, a large population size and/or high population growth rate are required for both the β(S)- and the β(0)-thalassaemia-like patterns. However, whilst the β(S)-like pattern is more likely when population subdivision is high, migration low and long-distance migration absent, the opposite is true for β(0)-thalassaemia. Including gene conversion has little effect on the overall probability of each pattern; however, when inter-haplotype fitness variation exists, gene conversion is more likely to have contributed to the diversity of haplotypes actually present in the population. Our findings highlight how the contrasting spatial haplotype patterns exhibited by β(S) and β(0)-thalassaemia may provide important indications as to the evolution of these adaptive alleles and the demographic history of the populations in which they have evolved.