Deep Learning-Based Natural Language Processing to Automate Esophagitis Severity Grading from the Electronic Health Records

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Radiotherapy (RT) toxicities can impair survival and quality-of-life, yet their risk factors and optimal management are under-studied. Real-world evidence holds enormous potential to improve our understanding of RT adverse events, but this information is often only documented in clinic notes and cannot, at present, be automatically extracted. To address this unmet need, we developed natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to automatically identify the presence and severity of esophagitis from notes of patients treated with thoracic RT.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Our corpus consisted of (1) a gold-labeled dataset of 1524 clinic notes from 124 lung cancer patients treated with RT (in-domain), manually annotated for CTCAE v5.0 esophagitis grade, and (2) a silver-labeled dataset of 2420 notes from 1832 patients on whom toxicity grades had been collected as structured data during clinical care. We developed a fine-tuning pipeline for pre-trained BERT-based neural models for 3 tasks: 1) classifying the presence of esophagitis, 2) classifying grade 0-1 vs. > = 2 esophagitis and 3) classifying grade 0 vs. 1 vs. 2-3. A note sectionizer was used to let the model focus on the most informative sections. Independent validation in a separate clinical cohort of esophageal cancer patients was selected for out-of-domain transferability testing. Such cohorts consist of a manually annotated dataset of 345 notes from 75 esophageal cancer patients treated with RT. We also report patient-level results by evaluating the maximum predicted grade per patient.

RESULTS

Fine-tuning PubmedBERT yielded the best-performing models. Performance is shown in the table. Selecting the most informative note sections (primarily Interval History, Assessment & Plan) during fine-tuning improved macro-F1 by > = 2% for all tasks. Including silver-labeled data improved the macro-F1 by > = 3% across all tasks.

CONCLUSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to automatically extract toxicity severity according to CTCAE guidelines from clinic notes, providing proof-of-concept for NLP to support detailed toxicity reporting. Fine-tuning on note sections and leveraging silver-labeled data enabled promising performance despite small datasets, informing future research into NLP for automated toxicity monitoring. Future work will extend these methods to other cancer diagnoses and toxicities, and to toxicity risk prediction.

Childhood-Onset Lupus Nephritis in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry: Short-Term Kidney Status and Variation in Care

OBJECTIVE

The goal was to characterize short-term kidney status and describe variation in early care utilization in a multicenter cohort of patients with childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE) and nephritis.

METHODS

We analyzed previously collected prospective data from North American patients with cSLE with kidney biopsy-proven nephritis enrolled in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Registry from March 2017 through December 2019. We determined the proportion of patients with abnormal kidney status at the most recent registry visit and applied generalized linear mixed models to identify associated factors. We also calculated frequency of medication use, both during induction and ever recorded.

RESULTS

We identified 222 patients with kidney biopsy-proven nephritis, with 64% class III/IV nephritis on initial biopsy. At the most recent registry visit at median (interquartile range) of 17 (8-29) months from initial kidney biopsy, 58 of 106 patients (55%) with available data had abnormal kidney status. This finding was associated with male sex (odds ratio [OR] 3.88, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.21-12.46) and age at cSLE diagnosis (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.49). Patients with class IV nephritis were more likely than class III to receive cyclophosphamide and rituximab during induction. There was substantial variation in mycophenolate, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab ever use patterns across rheumatology centers.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort with predominately class III/IV nephritis, male sex and older age at cSLE diagnosis were associated with abnormal short-term kidney status. We also observed substantial variation in contemporary medication use for pediatric lupus nephritis between pediatric rheumatology centers. Additional studies are needed to better understand the impact of this variation on long-term kidney outcomes.

Metabolically defined body size and body shape phenotypes and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

BACKGROUND

Excess body fatness and hyperinsulinemia are both associated with an increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. However, whether women with high body fatness but normal insulin levels or those with normal body fatness and high levels of insulin are at elevated risk of breast cancer is not known. We investigated the associations of metabolically defined body size and shape phenotypes with the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

METHODS

Concentrations of C-peptide-a marker for insulin secretion-were measured at inclusion prior to cancer diagnosis in serum from 610 incident postmenopausal breast cancer cases and 1130 matched controls. C-peptide concentrations among the control participants were used to define metabolically healthy (MH; in first tertile) and metabolically unhealthy (MU; >1st tertile) status. We created four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories by combining the metabolic health definitions with normal weight (NW; BMI < 25 kg/m2 , or WC < 80 cm, or WHR < 0.8) and overweight or obese (OW/OB; BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 , or WC ≥ 80 cm, or WHR ≥ 0.8) status for each of the three anthropometric measures separately: (1) MHNW, (2) MHOW/OB, (3) MUNW, and (4) MUOW/OB. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Women classified as MUOW/OB were at higher risk of postmenopausal breast cancer compared to MHNW women considering BMI (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.14-2.19) and WC (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.09-2.08) cut points and there was also a suggestive increased risk for the WHR (OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 0.94-1.77) definition. Conversely, women with the MHOW/OB and MUNW were not at statistically significant elevated risk of postmenopausal breast cancer risk compared to MHNW women.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that being overweight or obese and metabolically unhealthy raises risk of postmenopausal breast cancer while overweight or obese women with normal insulin levels are not at higher risk. Additional research should consider the combined utility of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters in predicting breast cancer risk.

A new NMVOC speciated inventory for a reactivity-based approach to support ozone control strategies in Spain

Ozone (O₃) pollution is a persistent problem in many regions of Spain, so understanding O₃ precursor emissions and trends is essential to design effective control strategies. We estimated the impact of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC) species upon O₃ formation potential (OFP) using the maximum incremental reactivity approach. For this, we developed a speciated NMVOC emission inventory for Spain from 2010 to 2019 combining national reported emissions with state-of-the-art speciation profiles, which resulted in a database of emissions for over 900 individual NMVOC species and 153 individual sectors. Additionally, we analysed 2030 emission projections to quantify the expected impact of planned measures on future OFP levels. Overall, the main activities contributing to OFP in Spain are paint manufacturing and applications (20 %), manure management (16 %), and domestic solvent use (6 %). These activities contribute unevenly across regions. The more urbanised areas report a larger contribution from the solvent sector (64 % in Madrid), while in rural areas, manure management and agricultural waste burning gain importance (24 % in Extremadura), indicating that local control measures should be implemented. The top 10 NMVOC species contributing to OFP are ethanol, ethene, xylenes, propene, toluene, formaldehyde, 1,3-butadiene, styrene, n-butane, and cyclopentane, which together are responsible for 54 % of the total OFP. Our trend analysis indicates a reduction of NMVOC emissions and OFP of -5 % and -10 % between 2010 and 2019, respectively. The larger decrease in OFP is driven by a bigger reduction in xylenes (-29 %) and toluene (-28 %) from paint application industries and the road transport sector. By 2030 a significant increase (+37 %) in the OFP from the public electricity sector is expected due to the planned increase in biomass use for power generation. Our results indicate that policies should focus on paint reformulation, limiting aerosol products, and implementing NMVOC control devices in future biomass power plants.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND

Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator.

RESULTS

The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

Intraarticular steroids as DMARD-sparing agents for juvenile idiopathic arthritis flares: Analysis of the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry

BACKGROUND

Children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) who achieve a drug free remission often experience a flare of their disease requiring either intraarticular steroids (IAS) or systemic treatment with disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). IAS offer an opportunity to recapture disease control and avoid exposure to side effects from systemic immunosuppression. We examined a cohort of patients treated with IAS after drug free remission and report the probability of restarting systemic treatment within 12 months.

METHODS

We analyzed a cohort of patients from the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Registry who received IAS for a flare after a period of drug free remission. Historical factors and clinical characteristics and of the patients including data obtained at the time of treatment were analyzed.

RESULTS

We identified 46 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Of those with follow up data available 49% had restarted systemic treatment 6 months after IAS injection and 70% had restarted systemic treatment at 12 months. The proportion of patients with prior use of a biologic DMARD was the only factor that differed between patients who restarted systemic treatment those who did not, both at 6 months (79% vs 35%, p < 0.01) and 12 months (81% vs 33%, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

While IAS are an option for all patients who flare after drug free remission, it may not prevent the need to restart systemic treatment. Prior use of a biologic DMARD may predict lack of success for IAS. Those who previously received methotrexate only, on the other hand, are excellent candidates for IAS.

Social determinants of health influence disease activity and functional disability in Polyarticular Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis

BACKGROUND

Social determinants of health (SDH) greatly influence outcomes during the first year of treatment in rheumatoid arthritis, a disease similar to polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (pJIA). We investigated the correlation of community poverty level and other SDH with the persistence of moderate to severe disease activity and functional disability over the first year of treatment in pJIA patients enrolled in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry.

METHODS

In this cohort study, unadjusted and adjusted generalized linear mixed effects models analyzed the effect of community poverty and other SDH on disease activity, using the clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-10, and disability, using the Child Health Assessment Questionnaire, measured at baseline, 6, and 12 months.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred eighty-four patients were identified. High community poverty (≥20% living below the federal poverty level) was associated with increased odds of functional disability (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.28-2.60) but was not statistically significant after adjustment (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 0.81-1.86) and was not associated with increased disease activity. Non-white race/ethnicity was associated with higher disease activity (aOR 2.48, 95% CI: 1.41-4.36). Lower self-reported household income was associated with higher disease activity and persistent functional disability. Public insurance (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.06-2.29) and low family education (aOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.14-3.12) was associated with persistent functional disability.

CONCLUSION

High community poverty level was associated with persistent functional disability in unadjusted analysis but not with persistent moderate to high disease activity. Race/ethnicity and other SDH were associated with persistent disease activity and functional disability.

[First wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Navarre, Spain, February-June 2020]

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic was declared in 2020. The shortage of diagnostic tests limited monitoring of the first wave of the pandemic. This study estimates and describes the wave in Navarre (Spain).

METHODS

Enhanced epidemiological surveillance, seroepidemiological survey estimates and mortality registries were used to characterise the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic from February to June 2020 in Navarre.

RESULTS

A total of 10,358 persons (1.6?% of population) were confirmed with COVID-19, 1,943 cases were hospitalized (3 per 1,000 inhabitants), 139 were admitted to the ICU (21 per 100,000 inhabitants), and 529 people died from confirmed COVID-19 (80 per 100,000). Mortality increased exponentially with age, exceeding 1?% in people over 85 years. 58?% of deaths occurred amongst nursing home residents. The mortality registry received reporting of 733 confirmed or probable COVID-19 deaths, while the excess deaths during this period were 613 (20.9?%) concentrated from mid-March to the end of April. It is estimated that, at the end of June, 6.7?% (n?=?44,000) of the population had detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and 10.3?% had had the infection. The estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence increased sharply in the first half of March and decreased quickly during the home lockdown in the second half of March.

CONCLUSIONS

The first wave of the pandemic produced a high number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Navarre in a few weeks. The pronounced decrease of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the home lockdown suggests considerable efficacy and impact of this measure for transmission control.

Social mobility and healthy behaviours from a gender perspective in the Spanish multicase-control study (MCC-Spain)

There is evidence for the influence of socioeconomic status (SES) on healthy behaviours but the effect of social mobility (SM) is not yet well known. This study aims to analyse the influence of origin and destination SES (O-SES and D-SES) and SM on healthy behaviours and co-occurrence, from an integrated gender and age perspective. Data were obtained from the controls of MCC-Spain between 2008-2013 (3,606 participants). Healthy behaviours considered: healthy diet, moderate alcohol consumption, non-smoking and physical activity. SM was categorized as stable high, upward, stable medium, downward or stable low. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were adjusted. Those aged <65, with a low O-SES, D-SES and stable low SM are less likely to have healthy behaviours in the case of both women (physically active: OR = 0.65 CI = 0.45-0.94, OR = 0.71 CI = 0.52-0.98, OR = 0.61 CI = 0.41-0.91) and men (non-smokers: OR = 0.44 CI = 0.26-0.76, OR = 0.54 CI = 0.35-0.83, OR = 0.41 CI 0.24-0.72; physically active: OR = 0.57 CI = 0.35-0.92, OR = 0.64 CI = 0.44-0.95, OR = 0.53 CI = 0.23-0.87). However, for those aged ≥65, this probability is higher in women with a low O-SES and D-SES (non-smoker: OR = 8.09 CI = 4.18-15.67, OR = 4.14 CI = 2.28-7.52; moderate alcohol consumption: OR = 3.00 CI = 1.45-6.24, OR = 2.83 CI = 1.49-5.37) and in men with a stable low SM (physically active: OR = 1.52 CI = 1.02-1.26). In the case of men, the same behaviour pattern is observed in those with a low O-SES as those with upward mobility, with a higher probability of co-occurring behaviours (three-to-four behaviours: OR = 2.00 CI = 1.22-3.29; OR = 3.13 CI = 1.31-7.48). The relationship of O-SES, D-SES and SM with healthy behaviours is complex and differs according to age and gender.

Improvement of hyponatremia in cirrhosis is associated with improved complex information processing

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hyponatremia, a cause of brain dysfunction and risk factor for hepatic encephalopathy, is frequent in patients with advanced cirrhosis and ascites. The interdependence of liver failure and hyponatremia makes it difficult to separate the effects of each on cognitive function. The objective was to assess whether an increase in plasma sodium in patients with cirrhosis and ascites leads to an improvement in cognitive function.

METHODS

This is a post-hoc analysis of 250 cirrhosis patients without overt hepatic encephalopathy randomized to receive either placebo or satavaptan, a vasopressin V₂ antagonist. The exposure was plasma sodium, and the outcome was the trail-making test (TMT) parts A and B, which assesses speed of information processing, performed before the study starts and after 14 days. The results were analyzed by initial and change to final sodium concentration.

RESULTS

At entry, the patients with normonatremia exhibited better results on both the TMT-A (median 56 vs 77.5 s for patients with sodium ≤ 130 mmol/L [P = 0.0059]) and the TMT-B (median 127 vs 170 s for patients with sodium ≤ 130 mmol/L [P = 0.0066]), unrelated to age. Improvement of hyponatremia was more common in patients who received satavaptan (59.7%) than placebo (18.5%). Correction of hyponatremia did not shorten the simple TMT-A but markedly improved the complex TMT-B by an average of 20 s compared with 6.5 s in those with continuing hyponatremia (P = 0.02). Liver status measures remained stable during the period reported.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that improvement of hyponatremia in patients with cirrhosis leads to an increase in the speed of complex information processing.

Supporting the improvement of air quality management practices: The "FAIRMODE pilot" activity

This paper presents the first outcomes of the "FAIRMODE pilot" activity, aiming at improving the way in which air quality models are used in the frame of the European "Air Quality Directive". Member States may use modelling, combined with measurements, to "assess" current levels of air quality and estimate future air quality under different scenarios. In case of current and potential exceedances of the Directive limit values, it is also requested that they "plan" and implement emission reductions measures to avoid future exceedances. In both "assessment" and "planning", air quality models can and should be used; but to do so, the used modelling chain has to be fit-for-purpose and properly checked and verified. FAIRMODE has developed in the recent years a suite of methodologies and tools to check if emission inventories, model performance, source apportionment techniques and planning activities are fit-for-purpose. Within the "FAIRMODE pilot", these tools are used and tested by regional/local authorities, with the two-fold objective of improving management practices at regional/local scale, and providing valuable feedback to the FAIRMODE community. Results and lessons learnt from this activity are presented in this paper, as a showcase that can potentially benefit other authorities in charge of air quality assessment and planning.

[Spanish rare disease registries research network: first results of Spain-RDR's project in Navarre]

BACKGROUND

The Spanish Rare Disease Registries Research Network, Spain-RDR, was a project of the Carlos III Health Institute (2012-2015) in which all the Autonomous Communities participated. The initial results for Navarre are presented.

METHODS

The Minimum Basic Data Set for 2010-2011 was explored to assess the collection of possible cases of rare diseases in Navarre (pilot study). The information was later extended in both time (the year 2012) and sources consulted (Mortality Statistics and Temporary Disability Registry).

RESULTS

Navarre identified 9,420 possible cases amongst the 8,141 residents in the pilot study, reaching 13,494 cases amongst the 11,644 people obtained with the extension of time and sources. Thirty-eight percent of the cases corresponded to endocrine, metabolic and immune diseases, and congenital anomalies.

CONCLUSIONS

It is necessary to expand the sources and the period of data collection, as well as to validate the cases registered in order to know the real magnitude of the problem as a whole and for each specific disease included in the registry.

Complement your knowledge with a rare cause of pauci-immune glomerulonephritis

RPGN can be subdivided into three categories on an immunopathologic basis: pauci-immune glomerulonephritis (PIGN), anti-glomerular basement membrane glomerulonephritis (anti-GBM disease), or immune complex-mediated glomerulonephritis (GN). PIGN is the most common cause of RPGN (80% of cases). The most common etiology of PIGN is anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated GN, which accounts for up to 90% of PIGN. PIGN is unique in that few to no immunoglobulin deposits are seen on glomerular immunofluorescence (IF) and electron microscopy (EM), but it is important to remember that dysregulation of the alternative pathway may result in the deposition of complements leading to inflammatory injury even in PIGN. Membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (MPGN) is a rare, primary glomerular disorder. Both ANCA-associated GN and complement-mediated MPGN will lack immunoglobulin staining on immunofluorescence (IF) and thus present as PIGN on pathologic examination. This may lead to occurrences where these entities mimic one another, therefore necessitating heightened suspicion and close pathologic examination of a renal biopsy with electron microscopy to differentiate the diagnoses. This case highlights a rare case of C3 GN mimicking ANCA-associated GN.

Night-shift work and breast and prostate cancer risk: updating the evidence from epidemiological studies

It has been hypothesized that circadian disruption is related to higher cancer risk. Since the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified shift work involving circadian disruption as probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A), multiple studies have been conducted to test this hypothesis. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize the findings and evaluate the quality of existing epidemiological studies (case-control and cohort studies) on the relationship between night-shift work and breast and prostate cancer risk. Thirty-three epidemiological studies investigating the relationship between night-shift work and breast (n = 26) or prostate (n = 8) cancer risk were included (one paper included both sites). The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for the quality of non-randomized studies was used to assess the risk of bias of the publications. The studies included were heterogeneous regarding population (general population, nurses working in rotating shifts, and other) and measurement of exposure to night-shift work (ever vs. never exposure, short vs. long-term, rotating vs. permanent) and, thus, a diversity of outcomes were observed even within the same type of cancer. In summary, 62.5% works found some type of association between night-shift work and increased risk of cancer, for both breast and prostate. The risk of bias scored an average of 7.5 over 9 stars. Due to the limitations inherent in these studies, the evidence of a possible association between night-shift work and breast or prostate cancer risk remains uncertain and more studies providing greater control of exposure and confounding factors are required. Despite the lack of conclusive evidence, application of the precautionary principle seems advisable.

Compositional analysis of dietary patterns

Instead of looking at individual nutrients or foods, dietary pattern analysis has emerged as a promising approach to examine the relationship between diet and health outcomes. Despite dietary patterns being compositional (i.e. usually a higher intake of some foods implies that less of other foods are being consumed), compositional data analysis has not yet been applied in this setting. We describe three compositional data analysis approaches (compositional principal component analysis, balances and principal balances) that enable the extraction of dietary patterns by using control subjects from the Spanish multicase-control (MCC-Spain) study. In particular, principal balances overcome the limitations of purely data-driven or investigator-driven methods and present dietary patterns as trade-offs between eating more of some foods and less of others.

Prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Navarre (Spain)

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed malignancies among males worldwide. In this study, overall and age-specific incidence and mortality trends are analyzed in order to present the past and current epidemiological situation of the disease in Navarre (Spain).

METHODS

Population-based incidence data from the 1975-2010 period, provided by the Cancer Registry of Navarre and prostate cancer specific mortality data for 1975-2013, provided by the Spanish Statistical Office, were used in the analysis. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, change-points and annual percentage changes (APC) were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis. One-dimensional P-spline models were used to estimate projections up to 2016.

RESULTS

Considerable increases of cancer incidence rates in men aged 45-74 years were observed, with APC of +4.5% (p<0.001), +9.5% (p<0.001) and +2.4% (p<0.05) in the 1975-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 periods, respectively. In the older than 74 age-group, an increase of incidence rates in the 1975-1999 period was registered (APC +3.3%, p<0.001), followed by a significant decrease up to 2010 (APC -4.0%, p<0.01). Mortality rates rose until 1995 (APC +2.2%, p<0.001) whereas a decline occurred afterwards up to 2013 (APC -3.4%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Even though overall prostate cancer incidence rates seem to have stabilized in 2002-2010 in Navarra, trends were different by age groups: increased in men 45-74 years old and decreased in the 75+ year age-group. A decline in mortality rates was observed in both age groups since about 1995. Changes in the use of prostate specific antigen test for screening in oncoming years could affect future prostate cancer trends.

Recent Advances in Giant Cell Arteritis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Giant cell arteritis (GCA) is the most common systemic vasculitis. GCA is categorized as a granulomatous vasculitis of large and medium size vessels. Majority of the symptoms and signs of GCA result from involvement of the aorta and its branches intra- and extracranial. Temporal artery biopsy continues to be the cardinal diagnostic procedure despite new imaging modalities for diagnosing GCA with cranial involvement. Great advances in awareness have led to improvement in preventing irreversible vision loss due to early diagnosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

The cause of GCA has not been elucidated but major progress has been made in the knowledge of its pathogenesis leading to new therapeutic targets, particularly inhibition of interleukin 6. IL 6 plays a key role in the regulation of TH17/Tregs imbalance in GCA and appears to correlate with clinical disease activity in GCA. All of this has led to the first FDA (food and drug administration) approved treatment for GCA, Tocilizumab. Abatacept and Ustekinumab are promising targets for therapy in LVV but still need further research. This paper is a review of the recent progress in the understanding of GCA pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis.

Abstract P3-09-01: Withdrawn

This abstract was withdrawn by the authors.

An emission processing system for air quality modelling in the Mexico City metropolitan area: Evaluation and comparison of the MOBILE6.2-Mexico and MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions

This article describes the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System for Mexico (HERMES-Mex) model, an emission processing tool developed to transform the official Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) emission inventory into hourly, gridded (up to 1km²) and speciated emissions used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The methods and ancillary information used for the spatial and temporal disaggregation and speciation of the emissions are presented and discussed. The resulting emission system is evaluated, and a case study on CO, NO₂, O₃, VOC and PM_2.5 concentrations is conducted to demonstrate its applicability. Moreover, resulting traffic emissions from the Mobile Source Emission Factor Model for Mexico (MOBILE6.2-Mexico) and the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator for Mexico (MOVES-Mexico) models are integrated in the tool to assess and compare their performance. NO_x and VOC total emissions modelled are reduced by 37% and 26% in the MCMA when replacing MOBILE6.2-Mexico for MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions. In terms of air quality, the system composed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the HERMES-Mex and CMAQ models properly reproduces the pollutant levels and patterns measured in the MCMA. The system's performance clearly improves in urban stations with a strong influence of traffic sources when applying MOVES-Mexico emissions. Despite reducing estimations of modelled precursor emissions, O₃ peak averages are increased in the MCMA core urban area (up to 30ppb) when using MOVES-Mexico mobile emissions due to its VOC-limited regime, while concentrations in the surrounding suburban/rural areas decrease or increase depending on the meteorological conditions of the day. The results obtained suggest that the HERMES-Mex model can be used to provide model-ready emissions for air quality modelling in the MCMA.

Abstract P2-04-22: Porous silicon microparticle potentiates anti-tumor immunity

This abstract was not presented at the symposium.

Creation of a whole brain short association bundle atlas using a hybrid approach

The Human brain connection map is far from being complete. In particular the study of the superficial white matter (SWM) is an unachieved task. Its description is essential for the understanding of human brain function and the study of pathogenesis triggered by abnormal connectivity. In this work we expanded a previously developed method for the automatic creation of a whole brain SWM bundle atlas. The method is based on a hybrid approach. First a cortical parcellation is used to extract fibers connecting two regions. Then an intra-and inter-subject hierarchical clustering are applied to find well-defined SWM bundles reproducible across subjects. In addition to the fronto-parietal and insula regions of the left hemisphere, the analysis was extended to the temporal and occipital lobes, including all their internal regions, for both hemispheres. Validation steps are performed in order to test the robustness of the method and the reproducibility of the obtained bundles. First the method was applied to two independent groups of subjects, in order to discard bundles without match across the two independent atlases. Then, the resulting intersection atlas was projected on a third independent group of subjects in order to filter out bundles without reproducible and reliable projection. The final multi-subject U-fiber atlas is composed of 100 bundles in total, 50 per hemisphere, from which 35 are common to both hemispheres. The atlas can be used in clinical studies for segmentation of the SWM bundles in new subjects, and measure DW values or complement functional data.

Short association bundle atlas based on inter-subject clustering from HARDI data

This paper is focused on the study of short brain association fibers. We present an automatic method to identify short bundles of the superficial white matter based on inter-subject hierarchical clustering. Our method finds clusters of similar fibers, belonging to the different subjects, according to a distance measure between fibers. First, the algorithm obtains representative bundles and subsequently we perform an automatic labeling based on the anatomy, of the most stable connections. The analysis was applied to two independent groups of 37 subjects. Results between the two groups were compared, in order to keep reproducible connections for the atlas creation. The method was applied using linear and non-linear registration, where the non-linear registration showed significantly better results. A final atlas with 35 bundles in the left hemisphere and 27 in the right hemisphere from the whole brain was obtained. Finally results were validated using the atlas to segment 26 new subjects from another HARDI database.

A novel approach to screen and compare emission inventories

A methodology is proposed to support the evaluation and comparison of different types of emission inventories. The strengths and weaknesses of the methodology are presented and discussed based on an example. The approach results in a "diamond" diagram useful to flag out anomalous behaviors in the emission inventories and to get insight in possible explanations. In particular, the "diamond" diagram is shown to provide meaningful information in terms of: discrepancies between the total emissions reported by macro-sector and pollutant, contribution of each macro-sector to the total amount of emissions released by pollutant, and the identification and quantification of the different factors causing the discrepancies between total emissions. A practical example in Barcelona is used for testing and to provide relevant information for the analyzed emission datasets. The tests show the capability of the proposed methodology to flag inconsistencies in the existing inventories. The proposed methodology system may be useful for regional and urban inventory developers as an initial evaluation of the consistency of their inventories.

Water quality of Danube Delta systems: ecological status and prediction using machine-learning algorithms

Environmental issues have a worldwide impact on water bodies, including the Danube Delta, the largest European wetland. The Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) implementation operates toward solving environmental issues from European and national level. As a consequence, the water quality and the biocenosis structure was altered, especially the composition of the macro invertebrate community which is closely related to habitat and substrate heterogeneity. This study aims to assess the ecological status of Southern Branch of the Danube Delta, Saint Gheorghe, using benthic fauna and a computational method as an alternative for monitoring the water quality in real time. The analysis of spatial and temporal variability of unicriterial and multicriterial indices were used to assess the current status of aquatic systems. In addition, chemical status was characterized. Coliform bacteria and several chemical parameters were used to feed machine-learning (ML) algorithms to simulate a real-time classification method. Overall, the assessment of the water bodies indicated a moderate ecological status based on the biological quality elements or a good ecological status based on chemical and ML algorithms criteria.

Automatic segmentation of short association bundles using a new multi-subject atlas of the left hemisphere fronto-parietal brain connections

Human brain connection map is far from being complete. In particular the study of the superficial white matter (SWM) is an unachieved task. Its description is essential for the understanding of human brain function and the study of the pathogenesis associated to it. In this work we developed a method for the automatic creation of a SWM bundle multi-subject atlas. The atlas generation method is based on a cortical parcellation for the extraction of fibers connecting two different gyri. Then, an intra-subject fiber clustering is applied, in order to divide each bundle into sub-bundles with similar shape. After that, a two-step inter-subject fiber clustering is used in order to find the correspondence between the sub-bundles across the subjects, fuse similar clusters and discard the outliers. The method was applied to 40 subjects of a high quality HARDI database, focused on the left hemisphere fronto-parietal and insula brain regions. We obtained an atlas composed of 44 bundles connecting 22 pair of ROIs. Then the atlas was used to automatically segment 39 new subjects from the database.

Clinical Course of acute-on-chronic liver failure syndrome and effects on prognosis

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis, organ failure(s), and high 28-day mortality. We investigated whether assessments of patients at specific time points predicted their need for liver transplantation (LT) or the potential futility of their care. We assessed clinical courses of 388 patients who had ACLF at enrollment, from February through September 2011, or during early (28-day) follow-up of the prospective multicenter European Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) ACLF in Cirrhosis study. We assessed ACLF grades at different time points to define disease resolution, improvement, worsening, or steady or fluctuating course. ACLF resolved or improved in 49.2%, had a steady or fluctuating course in 30.4%, and worsened in 20.4%. The 28-day transplant-free mortality was low-to-moderate (6%-18%) in patients with nonsevere early course (final no ACLF or ACLF-1) and high-to-very high (42%-92%) in those with severe early course (final ACLF-2 or -3) independently of initial grades. Independent predictors of course severity were CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and presence of liver failure (total bilirubin ≥12 mg/dL) at ACLF diagnosis. Eighty-one percent had their final ACLF grade at 1 week, resulting in accurate prediction of short- (28-day) and mid-term (90-day) mortality by ACLF grade at 3-7 days. Among patients that underwent early LT, 75% survived for at least 1 year. Among patients with ≥4 organ failures, or CLIF-C ACLFs >64 at days 3-7 days, and did not undergo LT, mortality was 100% by 28 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of ACLF patients at 3-7 days of the syndrome provides a tool to define the emergency of LT and a rational basis for intensive care discontinuation owing to futility.

2012/13 influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalised influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B: estimates from a European network of hospitals

While influenza vaccines aim to decrease the incidence of severe influenza among high-risk groups, evidence of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) among the influenza vaccine target population is sparse. We conducted a multicentre test-negative case-control study to estimate IVE against hospitalised laboratory-confirmed influenza in the target population in 18 hospitals in France, Italy, Lithuania and the Navarre and Valencia regions in Spain. All hospitalised patients aged ≥18 years, belonging to the target population presenting with influenza-like illness symptom onset within seven days were swabbed. Patients positive by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for influenza virus were cases and those negative were controls. Using logistic regression, we calculated IVE for each influenza virus subtype and adjusted it for month of symptom onset, study site, age and chronic conditions. Of the 1,972 patients included, 116 were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 58 for A(H3N2) and 232 for influenza B. Adjusted IVE was 21.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): -25.2 to 50.6; n=1,628), 61.8% (95% CI: 26.8 to 80.0; n=557) and 43.1% (95% CI: 21.2 to 58.9; n=1,526) against influenza A(H1N1) pdm09, A(H3N2) and B respectively. Our results suggest that the 2012/13 IVE was moderate against influenza A(H3N2) and B and low against influenza A(H1N1) pdm09.

Brain and central nervous system cancer incidence in navarre (Spain), 1973-2008 and projections for 2014

Different studies have pointed out Navarre as one of the regions of Spain with the highest incidence rates of brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancer. Trend analysis for cancer incidence rates for long periods of time, might help determining risk factors as well as, assessing prevention actions involved in this disease. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence of brain and CNS cancer using data from the population-based cancer registry of Navarre, (Spain) during the period 1973-2008 and provide forecast figures up to-2014. Crude and age-standardized (world population) incidence rates of brain cancer per 100,000 person-years were calculated by the direct method separately by gender, area (Pamplona and others), and age-groups. Penalized splines for smoothing rates in the temporal dimensions were applied in order to estimate and forecast cancer incidence rates. Age-adjusted incidence rates showed an increase over the study and forecast periods in both sexes more marked in women than in men. Higher incidence rates were observed in men compared with women but the differences became smaller with time. The increase was due to the rise of rates in the oldest age groups since the rates for younger age groups remained stable or decreased over time. As the entire aetiology of brain and other CNS cancer is not still clear, keep promoting healthful lifestyles for cancer primary prevention among the whole population is necessary.

Vaccine effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in Navarre, Spain: 2013/14 mid-season analysis

We estimate mid-2013/14 season vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the influenza trivalent vaccine in Navarre, Spain. Influenza-like illness cases attended in hospital (n=431) and primary healthcare (n=344) were included. The overall adjusted VE in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was 24% (95% CI: -14 to 50). The VE was 40% (95% CI: -12 to 68) against influenza A(H1)pdm09 and 13% (95% CI: -36 to 45) against influenza A(H3). These results suggest a moderate preventive effect against influenza A(H1)pdm09 and low protection against influenza A(H3).

Early estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness in Navarre, Spain: 2012/13 mid-season analysis

We present estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Navarre, Spain, in the early 2012/13 season, which was dominated by influenza B. In a population-based cohort using electronic records from physicians, the adjusted VE in preventing influenzalike illness was 32% (95% confidence interval (CI): 15 to 46). In a nested test-negative case-control analysis the adjusted VE in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was 86% (95% CI: 45 to 96). These results suggest a high protective effect of the vaccine.

Early estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness in Navarre, Spain: 2012/13 mid-season analysis

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Decline in influenza vaccine effectiveness with time after vaccination, Navarre, Spain, season 2011/12

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Association between dietary meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

A diet rich in meat has been reported to contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes. The present study aims to investigate the association between meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-InterAct study, a large prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

METHODS

During 11.7 years of follow-up, 12,403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified among 340,234 adults from eight European countries. A centre-stratified random subsample of 16,835 individuals was selected in order to perform a case-cohort design. Prentice-weighted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for incident diabetes according to meat consumption.

RESULTS

Overall, multivariate analyses showed significant positive associations with incident type 2 diabetes for increasing consumption of total meat (50 g increments: HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.05, 1.12), red meat (HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03, 1.13) and processed meat (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.05, 1.19), and a borderline positive association with meat iron intake. Effect modifications by sex and class of BMI were observed. In men, the results of the overall analyses were confirmed. In women, the association with total and red meat persisted, although attenuated, while an association with poultry consumption also emerged (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.07, 1.34). These associations were not evident among obese participants.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This prospective study confirms a positive association between high consumption of total and red meat and incident type 2 diabetes in a large cohort of European adults.

Use of the vaccination register to evaluate influenza vaccine coverage in seniors in the 2010/11 influenza season, Navarre, Spain

People aged 65 and older have a high risk of suffering from complications of influenza, therefore it is recommended that they receive annual influenza vaccination. However, vaccination coverage falls far short of the target of 75%. In this study we use the vaccination register to evaluate the coverage of influenza vaccine in non-institutionalised persons aged 65 and over in Navarre, Spain, in the 2010/11 season (104,427 persons). Vaccination coverage was 58.6%, lower than the 62.7% coverage in the 2009/10 season. In the multivariate analysis, lower coverage was associated with being female, age under 80 or over 94 years, immigrant status and hospitalisation in the previous year. In contrast, persons with major chronic conditions, high level of dependence or those with more visits to the general practitioner in the previous year had higher vaccination coverage. Influenza vaccination in the previous season was a strong predictor of vaccination in the current season (odds ratio: 37.0, 95% confidence interval: 35.7–38.4). The vaccination register has been shown to be useful to monitor the coverage of influenza vaccination in seniors and may help guide strategies to improve coverage.

Acute kidney injury is an early predictor of mortality for patients with alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with high mortality. To improve therapeutic strategies, it is important to identify factors that affect survival times. The age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine scoring system (also known as the ABIC scoring system) was developed previously to determine the prognosis of patients with AH. We studied effects of acute kidney injury (AKI) on survival of patients with AH.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from 103 patients with biopsy-proven AH. AKI was defined as an abrupt reduction (within 48 h) in kidney function that resulted in an absolute increase of at least 0.3 mg/dL (or a 50% increase) in serum levels of creatinine from baseline (the AKI network [AKIN] criteria).

RESULTS

Twenty-nine patients (28%) developed AKI during hospitalization, with a median time to diagnosis of 3 days. Overall 90-day mortality was 23%, which was significantly higher among patients with AKI than those without (65% vs 7%; P < .0001). The age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score (P < .0001) and development of AKI (P < .0001) were the most accurate independent predictors of 90-day mortality. The presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (P < .0001), serum bilirubin (P = .01), and international normalized ratio at admission (P = .03) were the most accurate predictors of AKI. Importantly, the AKIN criteria were more accurate than traditional criteria for renal failure (serum creatinine >1.5 mg/dL) in predicting 90-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.83 vs 0.70, respectively; P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

Development of AKI reduces survival of patients with AH, in the short term. The AKIN criteria are useful and more accurate than traditional criteria in predicting mortality. Strategies to prevent AKI therefore should be considered in the management of patients with AH.

Refractory ascites: pathogenesis, definition and therapy of a severe complication in patients with cirrhosis

Ascites is a frequent complication of cirrhosis and portal hypertension, because of the increase of the sinusoidal hydrostatic pressure. Cirrhosis accounts for over 75% of episodes of ascites. Cirrhotic patients with ascites have marked alterations in the splanchnic and systemic haemodynamics, causing central hypovolaemia and arterial hypotension with consequent activation of the vasoconstrictor systems, renin-angiotensin and sympathetic systems, and with increased renal sodium re-absorption. One of the most serious complications in cirrhotic patients with ascites is the occurrence of refractoriness, that is the inability to resolve ascites by the standard medical treatment with low sodium diet and diuretic doses up to 160 mg/day of furosemide and 400 mg/day of spironolactone. Many patients with refractory ascites also have a chronic renal insufficiency that is called hepatorenal syndrome type-2. In these patients ascites may be treated with periodic paracentesis or with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. However, only liver transplantation may improve the survival of such patients.

Abstract 2683: Monoclonal antibodies and assays for colorectal cancer monitoring in serum

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in both men and women. There were 148,810 new cases and 49,960 deaths anticipated in 2008. The 1-year and 5-year relative survival for CRC patients is 82% and 64% respectively. When CRC is detected early, at a localized stage, the 5-year survival is 90%. However only 39% of CRC are diagnosed at this stage, as only 44% of US adults over 50 undergo the recommended screening.

Our aim is to develop rapid, easy-to-use and cost-effective serum-based immunoassays for CRC surveillance and recurrence monitoring.

We have developed proprietary approaches to the discovery of biomarkers (Bm) using an in-house generated library of monoclonal antibodies (mAb), a large collection of clinical samples from patients with major cancers, and a proprietary multiplex screening platform, known as Matrix Protein Array Technology (MPAT). The MPAT enables us to screen a large number of clinical samples with a large number of antibodies. Briefly, a protein matrix comprising samples from cancer patients, benign and normal controls, is replica printed on the MPAT solid support. Each sample matrix is simultaneously interrogated with a different mAb. mAb-Bm reaction is detected using fluorescence-based Odyssey imaging system (Li-Cor), followed by spot quantification and statistical analysis to select mAb against Bm that are significantly and differentially expressed in cases versus controls.

We have used this approach to identify CRC specific Bm and mAb. We further validated Bm expression by MPAT, using the mAb on tissue protein extracts derived from patients with CRC (173), benign and inflammatory conditions of the colon (23), and normal controls (240). The clinical sample set used also included breast, lung, and ovary cases and controls, amounting to a total of 1329 samples. Some mAb-based Bm showed excellent discriminatory power between cancer and control, with up to 90% sensitivity at 90% specificity, as determined by ROC curves using statistical package GB-STAT (Dynamic Microsystems). Then, immunohistochemistry on in-house and commercial tissue microarrays (75 cases) confirmed cancer specificity, and mAb specifically stained CRC tissues, with membrane, nuclear and cytoplasmic localization. Finally, some candidate Bm appeared to be secreted and overexpressed in CRC patient serum, when tested by Western blot.

From the pool of serum-based Bm, we have developed a pair of capture-detection mAb in an ELISA sandwich assay, and compared performance to a carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) standard assay. This serum-based immunodiagnostic assay would have tremendous applications in CRC monitoring, whether alone or in combination with CEA.

Note: This abstract was not presented at the AACR 101st Annual Meeting 2010 because the presenter was unable to attend.

Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 101st Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2010 Apr 17-21; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2010;70(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 2683.

Estimating the impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic on mortality in the elderly in Navarre, Spain

We analysed mortality among people aged 65 years or older in Navarre, Spain in 2009 and compared it with the mean for the same period of time in the previous three years. In the pandemic weeks 24 to 52 2009 we observed 4.9% more deaths than expected (p=0.0268). Excess mortality occurred during the circulation of seasonal influenza (8.0%, p=0.0367) and the first wave of pandemic influenza (9.9%, p=0.0079). In the second wave of pandemic influenza there was a non-significant excess of deaths (5.2%, p=0.1166). Surveillance of laboratory-confirmed severe influenza cases detected only one death in this age group.

Estimating the impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic on mortality in the elderly in Navarre, Spain

We analysed mortality among people aged 65 years or older in Navarre, Spain in 2009 and compared it with the mean for the same period of time in the previous three years. In the pandemic weeks 24 to 52 2009 we observed 4.9% more deaths than expected (p=0.0268). Excess mortality occurred during the circulation of seasonal influenza (8.0%, p=0.0367) and the first wave of pandemic influenza (9.9%, p=0.0079). In the second wave of pandemic influenza there was a non-significant excess of deaths (5.2%, p=0.1166). Surveillance of laboratory-confirmed severe influenza cases detected only one death in this age group.

Changing epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease following increased coverage with the heptavalent conjugate vaccine in Navarre, Spain

The present study evaluated changes in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and the pattern of serotypes isolated in Navarre, Spain, after the introduction and increased coverage of the heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7). All cases with isolation of pneumococcus from normally sterile bodily fluids were included. The incidence of IPD in children and adults was compared for the periods 2001-2002 and 2006-2007. By the end of 2002, only 11% of children aged <5 years had received any dose of PCV7, whereas, beginning in 2007, the proportion exceeded 50%. Among the cases of IPD aged <5 years, the percentage of those vaccinated increased from 7% during 2001-2002 to 53% during 2006-2007 (p <0.001). The incidence of IPD from PCV7-serotypes decreased by 85% in children <5 years (p <0.001), by 45% in the population aged 5-64 years (p 0.10) and by 68% in those >or=65 years (p 0.004). By contrast, the incidence of IPD from non-PCV7 serotypes increased by 40% overall (p 0.006). The incidence of IPD from all serotypes did not change significantly in children <5 years (from 83 to 72 per 100 000) or in the total population (from 15.8 to 16.3 per 100 000). The percentage of cases as a result of serotypes 7 and 19A increased significantly in both children and adults. No significant changes were seen in the clinical forms of IPD. The pattern of serotypes causing IPD has changed, in both children and adults, following the increased coverage of PCV7, although the incidence has been reduced only slightly.

[Heptavalent-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (Prevenar). Differences in effectiveness between populations]

This article reviews the publications on the effectiveness of heptavalent-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children under five years of age. It also analyses the characteristics of the vaccine and its impact on the epidemiology of IPD in different places. Before the introduction of PCV7, the percentage of cases of IPD due to vaccine serogroups oscillated between 89% in the United States and 43% in Asia. In Spain it was 68%. Active laboratory-based surveillance shows that the introduction of PCV7 has had a highly variable impact on the incidence of IPD, with falls oscillating between 91% in the United States and 12% in Navarre, Spain. The global effectiveness of VNC7v in published studies varies between 31% and 89%, chiefly depending on the patterns of pneumococcal serotypes in each place. Numerous studies show a variable replacement capacity of the pneumococci, which means the effect of the vaccine can be reduced, as non-vaccine serotypes occupy the space left by the vaccine ones. A study in Navarre has found a risk of IPD due to non-vaccine serotypes that is 6 times higher in vaccinated children than in unvaccinated ones. In places where less than 70% of the serotypes that cause IPD are represented in the VNC7v, the effectiveness of its introduction in the vaccination will probably be slight and the routine vaccination schedule serotypes fast. In these cases, VNC7v could be reserved for children with IPD risk factors.