Geospatial Imprecision With Constraints for Precision Public Health: Algorithm Development and Validation

BACKGROUND

Location and environmental social determinants of health are increasingly important factors in both an individual's health and the monitoring of community-level public health issues.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to measure the extent to which location obfuscation techniques, designed to protect an individual's privacy, can unintentionally shift geographical coordinates into neighborhoods with significantly different socioeconomic demographics, which limits the precision of findings for public health stakeholders.

METHODS

Point obfuscation techniques intentionally blur geographic coordinates to conceal the original location. The pinwheel obfuscation method is an existing technique in which a point is moved along a pinwheel-like path given a randomly chosen angle and a maximum radius; we evaluate the impact of this technique using 2 data sets by comparing the demographics of the original point and the resulting shifted point by cross-referencing data from the United States Census Bureau.

RESULTS

Using poverty measures showed that points from regions of low poverty may be shifted to regions of high poverty; similarly, points in regions with high poverty may be shifted into regions of low poverty. We varied the maximum allowable obfuscation radius; the mean difference in poverty rate before and after obfuscation ranged from 6.5% to 11.7%. Additionally, obfuscation inadvertently caused false hot spots for deaths by suicide in Cook County, Illinois.

CONCLUSIONS

Privacy concerns require patient locations to be imprecise to protect against risk of identification; precision public health requires accuracy. We propose a modified obfuscation technique that is constrained to generate a new point within a specified census-designated region to preserve both privacy and analytical accuracy by avoiding demographic shifts.

Exploring the association between suicidal thoughts, self-injury, and GLP-1 receptor agonists in weight loss treatments: Insights from pharmacovigilance measures and unmasking analysis

INTRODUCTION

The study addresses concerns about potential psychiatric side effects of Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA).

AIM

The aim of this work was to analyse adverse drug reports (ADRs) from the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) using metformin and orlistat as comparators.

METHODS

Descriptive and pharmacovigilance disproportionality analyses was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 209,354 ADRs were reported, including 59,300 serious cases. Of those, a total of 5378 psychiatric disorder cases, including 383 'serious' cases related to selected ADRs were registered during 2005-2023. After unmasking, 271 cases where individual GLP-1 RA were implicated showing liraglutide (n = 90; Reported Odds Ratio (ROR) = 1.64), exenatide (n = 67; ROR = 0.80), semaglutide (n = 61; ROR = 2.03), dulaglutide (n = 45; ROR = 0.84), tirzepatide (n = 5; ROR = 1.76) and albiglutide (n = 2; ROR = 0.04). A greater association between these ADRs with metformin was observed, but not orlistat. With regards to selected preferred terms (PTs), 42 deaths including 13 completed suicides were recorded. Suicidal ideation was recorded in n = 236 cases for 6/7 GLP-1 RA (excluding lixisenatide).

DISCUSSION

Suicide/self-injury reports pertaining to semaglutide; tirzepatide; and liraglutide were characterised, although lower than metformin. It is postulated that rapid weight loss achieved with GLP-1 RA can trigger significant emotional, biological, and psychological responses, hence possibly impacting on suicidal and self-injurious ideations.

CONCLUSIONS

With the current pharmacovigilance approach, no causality link between suicidal ideation and use of any GLP-1 RA can be inferred. There is a need for further research and vigilance in GLP-1 RA prescribing, particularly in patients with co-existing psychiatric disorders.

Assessing the prediction of arterial CO2 from end tidal CO2 in adult blunt trauma patients

BACKGROUND

The control of PaCO2 in ventilated patients is known to be of particular importance in the management and prognosis of trauma patients. Although EtCO2 is often used as a continuous, non-invasive, surrogate marker for PaCO2 in ventilated trauma patients in the emergency department (ED), previous studies suggest a poor correlation in this cohort. However, previous data has predominantly been collected retrospectively, raising the possibility that the elapsed time between PaCO2 sampling and EtCO2 recording may contribute to the poor correlation. As such this study aimed to analyse the correlation of PaCO2 to EtCO2 in the ventilated blunt trauma patient presenting to the ED through contemporaneous sampling.

METHODS

This study was conducted as a prospective observational study analysing the near simultaneous recording of EtCO2 and Arterial Blood Gas sampling of ventilated adult trauma patients in the ED of a Level 1 trauma centre over a 12-month period. Data was analysed using linear regression and subgroup analysis by Injury Severity Score (ISS) and Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) of the Chest.

RESULTS

Linear regression of EtCO2 vs PaCO2 demonstrated a moderate correlation with r = 0.54 (p < 0.01, n = 51, 95 % CI 0.31-0.71). Subgroup analysis by ISS, revealed a stronger correlation in those with minor ISS (0-11) (r = 0.76, p < 0.01, n = 13, 95 % CI 0.36-0.92) compared to those more severely injured patients (ISS > 15) (r = 0.44, P < 0.01, n = 38, 95 % CI 0.14-0.67). Analysis by AIS Chest demonstrated similar correlation between patients without chest injuries (AIS 0) (r = 0.55, n = 29, p < 0.01, 95 % CI 0.23-0.76) and those with an AIS >1 (r = 0.51, n = 22, p = 0.02, 95 % CI 0.11-0.77). In patients with traumatic head injuries who had an EtCO2 between 30 and 39 mmHg, only 57 % had a measured PaCO2 within 5 mmHg.

CONCLUSIONS

As patients transition from minor to seriously injured, a decreasing strength of PaCO2 to EtCO2 correlation is observed, decreasing the reliability of EtCO2 as a surrogate marker of PaCO2 in this patient group. This inconsistency cannot be accounted for by the presence of chest injuries and worryingly is frequently seen in those with traumatic brain injuries.

Adherence to the Atrial fibrillation Better Care pathway and the risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents with atrial fibrillation: a retrospective data linkage study 2003-18

BACKGROUND

The Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway is the gold-standard approach to atrial fibrillation (AF) management, but the effect of implementation on health outcomes in care home residents is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations between ABC pathway adherence and stroke, transient ischaemic attack, cardiovascular hospitalisation, major bleeding, mortality and a composite of all these outcomes in care home residents.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of older care home residents (≥65 years) in Wales with AF was conducted between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2018 using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Adherence to the ABC pathway was assessed at care home entry using pre-specified definitions. Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models were used to estimate the risk of health outcomes according to ABC adherence.

RESULTS

From 14,493 residents (median [interquartile range] age 87.0 [82.6-91.2] years, 35.2% male) with AF, 5,531 (38.2%) were ABC pathway adherent. Pathway adherence was not significantly associated with risk of the composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01 [0.97-1.05]). There was a significant independent association observed between ABC pathway adherence and a reduced risk of myocardial infarction (0.70 [0.50-0.98]), but a higher risk of haemorrhagic stroke (1.59 [1.06-2.39]). ABC pathway adherence was not significantly associated with any other individual health outcomes examined.

CONCLUSION

An ABC adherent approach in care home residents was not consistently associated with improved health outcomes. Findings should be interpreted with caution owing to difficulties in defining pathway adherence using routinely collected data and an individualised approach is recommended.

Increased distance or time from a major trauma centre in South Australia is not associated with worse outcomes after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

OBJECTIVE

Considerations in traumatic brain injury (TBI) management include time to critical interventions and neurosurgical care, which can be influenced by the geographical location of injury. In Australia, these distances can be vast with varying degrees of first-responder experience. The present study aimed to evaluate the association that distance and/or time to a major trauma centre (MTC) had on patient outcomes with moderate to severe TBI.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the Royal Adelaide Hospital's (RAH) Trauma Registry over a 3-year period (1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020). All patients with a moderate to severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] ≤13 and abbreviated injury score head of ≥2) were included. The association of distance and time to the RAH and patient outcomes were compared by calculating the odds ratio utilising a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 378 patients were identified; of these, 226 met inclusion criteria and comprised our study cohort. Most patients were male (79%), injured in a major city (55%), with median age of 38 years old and median injury severity score (ISS) of 25. After controlling for age, ISS, ED GCS on arrival and pre-MTC intubation, increasing distance or time from injury site to the RAH was not shown to be associated with mortality or discharge destination in any of the models investigated.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis revealed that increasing distance or time from injury site to a MTC for patients with moderate to severe TBI was not significantly associated with adverse patient outcomes.

An open natural language processing (NLP) framework for EHR-based clinical research: a case demonstration using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C)

Despite recent methodology advancements in clinical natural language processing (NLP), the adoption of clinical NLP models within the translational research community remains hindered by process heterogeneity and human factor variations. Concurrently, these factors also dramatically increase the difficulty in developing NLP models in multi-site settings, which is necessary for algorithm robustness and generalizability. Here, we reported on our experience developing an NLP solution for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) signs and symptom extraction in an open NLP framework from a subset of sites participating in the National COVID Cohort (N3C). We then empirically highlight the benefits of multi-site data for both symbolic and statistical methods, as well as highlight the need for federated annotation and evaluation to resolve several pitfalls encountered in the course of these efforts.

Is There a Risk for Semaglutide Misuse? Focus on the Food and Drug Administration's FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) Pharmacovigilance Dataset

Recent media reports commented about a possible issue of the misuse of antidiabetics related to molecules promoted as a weight-loss treatment in non-obese people. We evaluated here available pharmacovigilance misuse/abuse signals related to semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue, in comparison to other GLP-1 receptor agonists (albiglutide, dulaglutide, exenatide, liraglutide, lixisenatide, and tirzepatide) and the phentermine-topiramate combination. To acheieve that aim, we analyzed the Food and Drug Administration's FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) dataset, performing a descriptive analysis of adverse event reports (AERs) and calculating related pharmacovigilance measures, including the reporting odds ratio (ROR) and the proportional reporting ratio (PRR). During January 2018-December 2022, a total of 31,542 AERs involving the selected molecules were submitted to FAERS; most involved dulaglutide (n = 11,858; 37.6%) and semaglutide (n = 8249; 26.1%). In comparing semaglutide vs. the remaining molecules, the respective PRR values of the AERs 'drug abuse', 'drug withdrawal syndrome', 'prescription drug used without a prescription', and 'intentional product use issue' were 4.05, 4.05, 3.60, and 1.80 (all < 0.01). The same comparisons of semaglutide vs. the phentermine-topiramate combination were not associated with any significant differences. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study documenting the misuse/abuse potential of semaglutide in comparison with other GLP1 analogues and the phentermine-topiramate combination. The current findings will need to be confirmed by further empirical investigations to fully understand the safety profile of those molecules.

Stereoselective two-carbon ring expansion of allylic amines via electronic control of palladium-promoted equilibria

General methodologies enabling the two-carbon homologation of pyrrolidine and piperidine systems have yet to be developed. Herein we report that palladium-catalysed allylic amine rearrangements enable efficient two-carbon ring expansion of 2-alkenyl pyrrolidine and piperidines to their azepane and azocane counterparts. Conditions are mild, tolerant of a range of functional groups and the process can occur with high enantioretention. The products formed undergo a range of orthogonal transformations, making them ideal scaffolds for the creation of compound libraries.

Spatial access to buprenorphine-waivered prescribers in the HEALing communities study: Enhanced 2-step floating catchment area analyses in Massachusetts, Ohio, and Kentucky

INTRODUCTION

The opioid overdose epidemic continues to impact a large swath of the population in the US. Medications for opioid use disorders (MOUD) are an effective resource to combat the epidemic; however, there is limited research on MOUD treatment access that accounts for both supply of and demand for services. We aimed to examine access to buprenorphine prescribers in the HEALing Communities Study (HCS) Wave 2 communities in Massachusetts, Ohio, and Kentucky during 2021, and the association between buprenorphine access and opioid-related incidents, specifically fatal overdoses and opioid-related responses by emergency medical services (EMS).

METHODS

We calculated Enhanced 2-Step Floating Catchment Area (E2SFCA) accessibility indices for each state, as well as Wave 2 communities in each state, based on the location of providers (buprenorphine-waivered clinicians from the US Drug Enforcement Agency Active Registrants database), population-weighted centroids at the census block group level, and catchment areas defined by the state or community's average commute time. In advance of intervention initiation, we quantified the opioid-related risk environment of communities. We assessed gaps in services by using bivariate Local Moran's I analysis, incorporating accessibility indices and opioid-related incident data.

RESULTS

Massachusetts Wave 2 HCS communities had the highest rates of buprenorphine prescribers per 1000 patients (median: 165.8) compared to Kentucky (38.8) and Ohio (40.1). While urban centers in all three states had higher E2SFCA index scores compared to rural communities, we observed that suburban communities often had limited access. Through bivariate Local Moran's I analysis, we identified numerous locations with low buprenorphine access surrounded by high opioid-related incidents, particularly in communities that surrounded Boston, Massachusetts; Columbus, Ohio; and Louisville, Kentucky.

CONCLUSION

Rural communities demonstrated a great need for additional access to buprenorphine prescribers. However, policymakers should also direct attention toward suburban communities that have experienced significant increases in opioid-related incidents.

Clinical benefits and economic cost-savings of Remote Electrical Neuromodulation (REN) for migraine prevention

AIMS

Assess the clinical benefits and associated direct and indirect cost-savings from Remote Electrical Neuromodulation (REN) for migraine prevention.

METHODS

REN, a prescribed, wearable, FDA-cleared neuromodulation-device for the acute and/or treatment of migraine, recently demonstrated efficacy for migraine prevention when used every-other-day, in a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center study. Following baseline (4-weeks), subjects underwent treatment with REN (or placebo; 8-weeks), and electronically reported migraine symptoms and acute treatments daily. Therapeutic-gain was the between-groups difference (REN minus placebo) in change from baseline to the second month of intervention. Health-economics impact was derived as cost-savings associated with REN's clinical benefits.

RESULTS

Out of 248 subjects randomized (128 active, 120 placebo), 179 (95:84) qualified for modifiedintention-to-treat (mITT) analysis. Significant therapeutic gains favoring REN vs placebo were found (Tepper et al., 2023), including mean (±SD) reduction in number of acute medication days (3.4 ± 0.4 vs 1.2 ± 0.5; gain = 2.2; p = 0.001) and presenteeism days (2.7 ± 0.3 vs 1.1 ± 0.4; p = 0.001). Mean changes of provider visits (reduction of 0.09 ± 0.1 vs increase of 0.08 ± 0.2; p = 0.297), and reduction of absenteeism days (0.07 ± 0.1 vs 0.07 ± 0.2; p = 0.997) were not significant. Mean annual cost-saving for one patient using REN for migraine prevention estimated $10,000 (±$1,777) from reductions in these four clinical outcomes relative to baseline without REN treatment. Extrapolated to a hypothetical US commercial health-plan of one-million covered lives, assuming the national prevalence of migraine patients on preventive treatment, annual mean (±SE) cost-saving from using REN migraine prevention estimated $560.0 million (±$99.5 million) from reduction in direct and indirect metrics measured.

LIMITATIONS

Clinical and cost-savings benefits presented are conservative, assessed only from endpoints measured in the clinical trial. Moreover, some of the endpoints had only scarce or no occurrences during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Demonstrated significant and meaningful clinical, and cost-savings benefits for patients, health insurance systems, and employers, from utilizing REN for migraine prevention.

Achievement of the ESC recommendations for secondary prevention of cardiovascular risk factors in high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes: A real-world national cohort analysis

AIM

To assess compliance with European Society of Cardiology (ESC) secondary prevention recommendations in a nationwide contemporary population with diabetes mellitus (DM) and coronary artery disease.

METHOD

We conducted a retrospective observational study using linked health data in patients across Wales with DM undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (2012-2017). The follow-up was for one year. We analysed the clinical characteristics, medications, target levels for HbA1c, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and blood pressure against the ESC prevention guidelines.

RESULTS

Overall, 3478 patients with diabetes had available data at 1-year post-PCI. Only 43% had HbA1c levels <53 mmol/L, but 81% had blood pressure < 140/80 (current ESC targets). Prescribing frequency of the newer hypoglycaemic agents (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors) was suboptimal, with a higher rate in patients with HbA1c ≥53 mmol/mol. Only 51% & 27% of the patients had LDL-C levels <1.8 &1.4 mmol/L (2016 & 2019 guidelines recommendations respectively), and 55% & 34% had non-HDL-C levels <2.6 & 2.2 mmol/L (2016 & 2019 guidelines respectively). Of the uncontrolled LDL-C patients, 42% (2016 target) and 35% (2019 target) were prescribed high-intensity statins. Females were more likely to have LDL-C targets above the recommended level.

CONCLUSION

Achievement of ESC treatment goals in this very-high risk cohort for DM and hyperlipidaemia was far from optimal, with a low prescription rate of the guidelines-recommended therapy. Target goals for hypertension were met more frequently. An up-to-date analysis reflecting the current practice against the most recent guidelines is warranted.

Imaging in urethral stricture disease: an educational review of current techniques with a focus on MRI

Urethral stricture disease refers to narrowing of the urethral lumen obstructing the flow of urine. Urethral strictures can significantly impact daily life due to incontinence, incomplete emptying, hesitancy, and increased risk of urinary tract infections. Imaging is central to the evaluation of suspected urethral stricture, as assessment of stricture length and severity is crucial for guidance of surgical management. The currently employed modalities include radiography, chiefly retrograde urethrography (RUG) and voiding cystourethrography (VCUG); magnetic resonance urethrography (MRU); and sonourethrography (SUG). MRU has become a recent focus of research as it provides high spatial resolution, multiplanar capacity, and soft tissue type differentiation for evaluation of periurethral compartments and concurrent soft tissue defects. The protocol for MRU has evolved over the years to now include dynamic micturition imaging and image reconstruction options. In this review, we discuss each of the imaging modalities used in the diagnosis and evaluation of urethral stricture and provide an overview of literature on MRU over the last decade, including suggested indications that have not yet been incorporated into current guidelines. We delineate scenarios where special diagnostic imaging beyond radiography is beneficial, providing examples from our practice and description of our techniques for each modality.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESCRIBING THE EVOLUTION OF MEDICATION USE OVER TIME IN PEOPLE LIVING WITH DEMENTIA USING NETWORK ANALYSIS

Prescribing for community-dwelling older adults living with dementia is complex. Multiple medications may be used to manage symptoms associated with dementia and/or co-existing chronic conditions, and can lead to problematic polypharmacy. Our objective was to use network analysis, a data science method, to provide a comprehensive description of co-prescribed medications in persons with dementia and describe whether these patterns change over time. We created a population-based cohort of community-dwelling older adults (aged 67+ years) in Ontario, Canada, newly diagnosed with dementia (between April 2014 and January 2019), from health administrative data, and developed medication networks at one year prior to, at, and for up to five years following dementia diagnosis. Among 136,292 individuals newly diagnosed with dementia, the mean age was 82.2 years and 59% were female. The most common medication subclasses dispensed at diagnosis were primarily cardiovascular medications: statins (45.6%), proton pump inhibitors (27.3%), beta-blockers (27.0%), calcium blockers (25.1%), and ACE inhibitors (24.6%). Similar proportions of medication subclasses were found at five years after diagnosis, except cholinesterase inhibitors (34.0% at five years were dispensed cholinesterase inhibitors compared to 16.9% at diagnosis). The most frequent co-prescribed medication pairs at diagnosis included statins and beta-blockers (16.0%), proton pump inhibitors (16.0%), and ace inhibitors (15.4%), respectively. Co-prescription was similar at five years, but also included higher frequency of co-prescribing with cholinesterase inhibitors (e.g., 19.4% were prescribed cholinesterase inhibitors and statins). Network diagrams demonstrate the complexity of prescribing in this population and highlight concurrent prescribing which may require careful monitoring or deprescribing.

Prevalence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003-2018

OBJECTIVE

To determine atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence and temporal trends, and examine associations between AF and risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using anonymised linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank on CARE home residents in Wales with AF (SAIL CARE-AF) between 2003 and 2018. Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to estimate the risk of health outcomes with mortality as a competing risk. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the risk of mortality.

RESULTS

There were 86,602 older care home residents (median age 86.0 years [interquartile range 80.8-90.6]) who entered a care home between 2003 and 2018. When the pre-care home entry data extraction was standardised, the overall prevalence of AF was 17.4% (95% confidence interval 17.1-17.8) between 2010 and 2018. There was no significant change in the age- and sex-standardised prevalence of AF from 16.8% (15.9-17.9) in 2010 to 17.0% (16.1-18.0) in 2018. Residents with AF had a significantly higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.27 [1.17-1.37], P < 0.001), all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.14 [1.11-1.17], P < 0.001), ischaemic stroke (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.55 [1.36-1.76], P < 0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalisation (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.28 [1.22-1.34], P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Older care home residents with AF have an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, even when higher mortality rates and other confounders are accounted for. This re-iterates the need for appropriate oral anticoagulant prescription and optimal management of cardiovascular co-morbidities, irrespective of frailty status and predicted life expectancy.

Problems and Mysteries of the Many Languages of Thought

"What is the structure of thought?" is as central a question as any in cognitive science. A classic answer to this question has appealed to a Language of Thought (LoT). We point to emerging research from disparate branches of the field that supports the LoT hypothesis, but also uncovers diversity in LoTs across cognitive systems, stages of development, and species. Our letter formulates open research questions for cognitive science concerning the varieties of rules and representations that underwrite various LoT-based systems and how these variations can help researchers taxonomize cognitive systems.

Factors associated with prescription of oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003–2018

Background

Prescription of oral anticoagulants (OAC) is paramount for stroke prevention in people with atrial fibrillation (AF), but treatment decisions in older care home residents are complicated by frailty, multi-morbidity and heightened stroke and bleeding risk. There is a paucity of data on factors influencing the decision to prescribe OAC in this high-risk population who are under-represented in research studies.

Purpose

To explore the factors associated with OAC prescription for care home residents aged ≥65 years with AF.

Methods

Nationwide retrospective cohort study of people aged ≥65 years entering a care home in Wales between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2018, using anonymised individual-level electronic health record and administrative data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to explore the association between resident characteristics and OAC prescription or non-prescription.

Results

Between 2003 and 2018, 14,493 people with AF aged ≥65 years became new residents in care homes in Wales and 7,057 (48.7%) were prescribed OAC (32.7% in 2003 compared to 72.7% in 2018), Figure 1. Increasing age and prescription of antiplatelet therapy were associated with lower odds of OAC prescription (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96 per one year age increase [95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 0.96] and aOR 0.91 [0.84 to 0.98], respectively). Conversely, prior venous thromboembolism (aOR 4.06 [3.17 to 5.20]), advancing frailty (mild: aOR 4.61 [3.95 to 5.38]; moderate: aOR 6.69 [5.74 to 7.80]; severe: aOR 8.42 [7.16 to 9.90]) and year of care home entry in the post-non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) era from 2011 onwards (aOR 1.91 [1.76 to 2.06]) were associated with higher odds of OAC prescription, Figure 2.

Conclusions

The proportion of care home residents prescribed OAC therapy has increased over time with the introduction of NOACs in 2011, but OAC prescription rates are still sub-optimal. Although there is an expected rise in OAC prescribing for increasingly frail people, further work is needed to investigate the interaction with deprivation and other socio-economic and demographic factors to assess potential inequalities in prescribing across these groups. Targeted educational tools for clinicians are needed to address barriers to OAC prescription for AF, such as older age and separate indications for antiplatelet therapy.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Prevalence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003–2018

Background

Older care home residents are a high-risk group of people with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are under-represented in clinical trials. Improved understanding of AF epidemiology and management in this population is paramount for health and social care organisations to strategically plan services.

Purpose

To determine the trends in AF prevalence and compare adverse health outcomes in older care home residents aged ≥65 years with AF compared to those without AF.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of people entering a care home between 2003–2018 using nationwide, population-scale anonymised health and administrative data, provisioned from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (1 January 2000–31st December 2018). Direct standardisation was used to calculate AF prevalence by year of care entry (2010–2018). Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the risk of adverse health outcomes.

Results

Between 2003 and 2018, 86,602 people aged ≥65 years became new residents in care homes in Wales. Residents with AF (n=14,493) had a significantly higher risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) of cardiovascular (aHR 1.27 [1.17 to 1.37], p&lt;0.001) and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.14 [1.11 to 1.17], p&lt;0.001), Figure 1. The risk (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 95% CI) of ischaemic stroke (adjusted sHR 1.55 [1.36 to 1.76], p&lt;0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalisation (adjusted sHR 1.28 [1.22 to 1.34], p&lt;0.001) was also higher in residents with AF, even when mortality was considered a competing event, Figure 1. There was no significant change in age- and sex-standardised prevalence of AF between 2010 and 2018, 16.79% (95% CI 15.85 to 17.94) and 17.02% (95% CI 16.05 to 17.98), respectively (absolute change 2010–2018: 0.06% [95% CI: −1.38 to 1.50], p=0.93), Figure 2.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates unique data on the epidemiology of AF and associated outcomes in older care home residents. Whilst the prevalence of AF remained stable between 2010–2018, residents with AF had significantly higher risk of adverse health events. Treatment of AF in accordance with guidelines is critical in this population to optimise management and reduce adverse health outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery according to suture technique: Hughes Abdominal Repair Randomized Trial (HART)

BACKGROUND

Incisional hernias cause morbidity and may require further surgery. HART (Hughes Abdominal Repair Trial) assessed the effect of an alternative suture method on the incidence of incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

A pragmatic multicentre single-blind RCT allocated patients undergoing midline incision for colorectal cancer to either Hughes closure (double far-near-near-far sutures of 1 nylon suture at 2-cm intervals along the fascia combined with conventional mass closure) or the surgeon's standard closure. The primary outcome was the incidence of incisional hernia at 1 year assessed by clinical examination. An intention-to-treat analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Between August 2014 and February 2018, 802 patients were randomized to either Hughes closure (401) or the standard mass closure group (401). At 1 year after surgery, 672 patients (83.7 per cent) were included in the primary outcome analysis; 50 of 339 patients (14.8 per cent) in the Hughes group and 57 of 333 (17.1 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.84, 95 per cent c.i. 0.55 to 1.27; P = 0.402). At 2 years, 78 patients (28.7 per cent) in the Hughes repair group and 84 (31.8 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.86, 0.59 to 1.25; P = 0.429). Adverse events were similar in the two groups, apart from the rate of surgical-site infection, which was higher in the Hughes group (13.2 versus 7.7 per cent; OR 1.82, 1.14 to 2.91; P = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of incisional hernia after colorectal cancer surgery is high. There was no statistical difference in incidence between Hughes closure and mass closure at 1 or 2 years.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN25616490 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).

Stroke in Older Adults Living in Care Homes: Results From a National Data Linkage Study in Wales

OBJECTIVES

To determine the proportion of older people moving to care homes with a recent stroke, incidence of stroke after moving to a care home, mortality following stroke, and secondary stroke prevention management in older care home residents.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using population-scale individual-level linked data sources between 2003 and 2018 in the Secure Anonymized Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

People age ≥65 years residing in long-term care homes in Wales.

METHODS

Competing risk models and logistic regression models were used to examine the association between prior stroke, incident stroke, and mortality following stroke.

RESULTS

Of 86,602 individuals, 7.0% (n = 6055) experienced a stroke in the 12 months prior to care home entry. The incidence of stroke within 12 months after entry to a care home was 26.2 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 25.0, 27.5]. Previous stroke was associated with higher risk of incident stroke after moving to a care home (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.83, 95% CI 1.57, 2.13) and 30-day mortality following stroke (odds ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.59, 2.98). Severe frailty was not significantly associated with risk of stroke or 30-day mortality following stroke. Secondary stroke prevention included statins (50.5%), antiplatelets (61.2%), anticoagulants (52.4% of those with atrial fibrillation), and antihypertensives (92.1% of those with hypertension).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

At the time of care home entry, individuals with history of stroke in the previous 12 months are at a higher risk of incident stroke and mortality following an incident stroke. These individuals are frequently not prescribed medications for secondary stroke prevention. Further evidence is needed to determine the optimal care pathways for older people living in long-term care homes with history of stroke.

Is Reddit a reliable source for information on erectile dysfunction treatment?

Patients may turn to social media websites, such as Reddit, for information on erectile dysfunction prior to seeking care from a physician. We sought to identify, characterize, and assess the quality of the erectile dysfunction treatments discussed on the highly influential Reddit website. We assessed 2634 comments from two subreddits, r/AskMen and r/ErectileDysfunction, for positive and negative statements regarding treatments for erectile dysfunction. A total of 45 unique treatments were discussed and consisted of changes in sexual behavior (30%), lifestyle changes (29%), medical interventions (23%), talking with a partner about ED (10%), and use of supplements (8%). Only 24.4% of all treatments discussed are in line with current American Urological Association guidelines. Only 43.8% of all positive statements made endorsed a guidelines-based treatment, indicating a high rate of self-proclaimed success with alternative therapies. Our results indicate that there is active discussion of erectile dysfunction treatment on Reddit with a wide range of therapies recommended, however, the majority of the recommendations are not supported by strong clinical evidence.

Salvage of Chronic Therapy-Resistant Bilateral Charcot Foot Osteoarthropathy with Signs of Osteomyelitis

Charcot arthropathy is an insidious condition affecting the lower limbs of diabetic patients. It is a complication of diabetic neuropathy resulting from subsequent Wallerian degeneration of the nerves. This complication may eventually lead to limb amputation and a poor patient prognosis if not diagnosed and treated successfully. Herein, we report the case of a 73‐year‐old female who presented with rapidly progressive bilateral Charcot foot over a 5‐week period, necessitating an exostectomy on the mid foot, specifically on the cuboid bone and the navicular cuneiform joint. Her presentation with rapidly progressing foot ulcers on the plantar aspect prompted initial treatment based on osteomyelitis. The report will therefore serve as a useful guide on how to properly treat Charcot foot, which may present in an atypical manner.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on community medication dispensing: a national cohort analysis in Wales, UK

Background

Population-level information on dispensed medication provides insight on the distribution of treated morbidities, particularly if linked to other population-scale data at an individual-level.

Objective

To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on dispensing patterns of medications.

Methods

Retrospective observational study using population-scale, individual-level dispensing records in Wales, UK. Total dispensed drug items for the population between 1 st January 2016 and 31 st December 2019 (3-years, pre-COVID-19) were compared to 2020 with follow up until 27 th July 2021 (COVID-19 period). We compared trends across all years and British National Formulary (BNF) chapters and highlighted the trends in three major chapters for 2019-21: 1-Cardiovascular system (CVD); 2-Central Nervous System (CNS); 3-Immunological & Vaccine. We developed an interactive dashboard to enable monitoring of changes as the pandemic evolves.

Result

Amongst all BNF chapters, 73,410,543 items were dispensed in 2020 compared to 74,121,180 items in 2019 demonstrating -0.96% relative decrease in 2020. Comparison of monthly patterns showed average difference (D) of -59,220 and average Relative Change (RC) of -0.74% between the number of dispensed items in 2020 and 2019. Maximum RC was observed in March 2020 (D = +1,224,909 and RC = +20.62), followed by second peak in June 2020 (D = +257,920, RC = +4.50%). A third peak was observed in September 2020 (D = +264,138, RC = +4.35%). Large increases in March 2020 were observed for CVD and CNS medications across all age groups. The Immunological and Vaccine products dropped to very low levels across all age groups and all months (including the March dispensing peak).

Conclusions

Reconfiguration of routine clinical services during COVID-19 led to substantial changes in community pharmacy drug dispensing. This change may contribute to a long-term burden of COVID-19, raising the importance of a comprehensive and timely monitoring of changes for evaluation of the potential impact on clinical care and outcomes.

Risk factors for complicated grief among family members bereaved in intensive care unit settings: A systematic review

Background

Families of intensive care unit (ICU) decedents are at increased risk of experiencing complicated grief. However, factors associated with complicated grief in ICU and bereavement needs assessment are not available routinely. We aimed to conduct a systematic review identifying risk factors associated with complicated grief among family members of ICU decedents.

Materials and methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched to identify relevant articles. Observational studies and randomised and non-randomised controlled trials were included. Studies were screened and quality appraised in duplicate. Risk of bias was assessed using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. A narrative synthesis was undertaken.

Results

Seven studies conducted across three continents were eligible. Four studies were of high quality. 61 risk factors were investigated across the studies. Factors associated with a decreased risk of complicated grief included age, patient declining treatment and involvement in decision-making. Factors associated with increased risk included living alone, partner, dying while intubated, problematic communication, and not having the opportunity to say goodbye.

Conclusion

This systematic review has identified risk factors which may help identify family members at increased risk of complicated grief. Many of the studies has small sample sizes increasing the risk of erroneously reporting no effect due to type II error. Some factors are specific to the ICU setting and are potentially modifiable. Bereavement services tailored to the needs of bereaved family members in ICU settings are required. (PROSPERO registration ID 209503)

Long-term prevention of hereditary angioedema attacks with lanadelumab: The HELP OLE Study

Background

The aim was to evaluate long‐term effectiveness and safety of lanadelumab in patients ≥12 y old with hereditary angioedema (HAE) 1/2 (NCT02741596).

Methods

Rollover patients completing the HELP Study and continuing into HELP OLE received one lanadelumab 300 mg dose until first attack (dose‐and‐wait period), then 300 mg q2wks (regular dosing stage). Nonrollovers (newly enrolled) received lanadelumab 300 mg q2wks from day 0. Baseline attack rate for rollovers: ≥1 attack/4 weeks (based on run‐in period attack rate during HELP Study); for nonrollovers: historical attack rate ≥1 attack/12 weeks. The planned treatment period was 33 months.

Results

212 patients participated (109 rollovers, 103 nonrollovers); 81.6% completed ≥30 months on study (mean [SD], 29.6 [8.2] months). Lanadelumab markedly reduced mean HAE attack rate (reduction vs baseline: 87.4% overall). Patients were attack free for a mean of 97.7% of days during treatment; 81.8% and 68.9% of patients were attack free for ≥6 and ≥12 months, respectively. Angioedema Quality‐of‐Life total and domain scores improved from day 0 to end of study. Treatment‐emergent adverse events (TEAEs) (excluding HAE attacks) were reported by 97.2% of patients; most commonly injection site pain (47.2%) and viral upper respiratory tract infection (42.0%). Treatment‐related TEAEs were reported by 54.7% of patients. Most injection site reactions resolved within 1 hour (70.2%) or 1 day (92.6%). Six (2.8%) patients discontinued due to TEAEs. No treatment‐related serious TEAEs or deaths were reported. Eleven treatment‐related TEAEs of special interest were reported by seven (3.3%) patients.

Conclusion

Lanadelumab demonstrated sustained efficacy and acceptable tolerability with long‐term use in HAE patients.

Optimal timing of surveillance ultrasounds in small aortic aneurysms

OBJECTIVE

Small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) surveillance intervals remain controversial and difficult to standardize. Current Society for Vascular Surgery guidelines lack quality evidence. The objective of this study is to examine patients followed in a high volume non-invasive vascular laboratory, determine if the current guidelines are fitting in clinical practice, and attempt to further identify risk factors for accelerated aneurysm growth.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients who underwent at least two ultrasounds for AAA in the vascular laboratory during 2008-2018 with baseline diameter less than 5.0 cm was conducted. Patient demographics were collected. Groups were then created for comparison using the size criteria according to SVS guidelines. In addition, we compared overall growth rates specifically evaluating rapid growth (rate of at least 1.0 cm/year and size change of at least 0.5 cm from previous imaging), expected growth (any growth below 1.0 cm/year and of at least 0.5 cm from baseline) and no growth.

RESULTS

A total of 1581 patients (1232 male and 349 female) were identified with a total of 5945 ultrasound studies. The median age was 73 years and mean follow-up was 27.8 months. Baseline AAA size was 3.0-3.9 cm in 986 patients and 4.0-4.9 cm in 595 patients. The average maximum growth rate was 0.18 cm/year for AAAs 3.0-3.9 cm and 0.36 cm/year for AAAs 4.0-4.9 cm (p<0.001). Patients with AAA 4.0-4.9 cm at baseline were more likely to be white, male, hypertensive and have chronic kidney disease (p <0.05). 1078 patients (68.2%) demonstrated no growth over the observed time period with 342 patients (21.6%) demonstrating expected growth and 161 (10.2%) rapid growth. Male gender and baseline AAA size of 4.0-4.9 cm were more likely to demonstrate rapid growth (p=0.002) and eventual repair (p<0.001). Metformin use was more common in the AAA group with no growth (p <0.05). Freedom from rapid growth and repair indication at two years was significantly lower in those patients with baseline aneurysms 3.0-3.9 cm (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The overall low rate of events in small AAAs supports continued surveillance every 3 years for AAAs between 3.0 and 3.9 cm and yearly for male patients with AAAs 4.0-4.9 cm as recommended by the SVS Guidelines. Female gender may have less rapid growth than previously reported but likely merit more rigorous surveillance particularly as the AAAs approach 5.0 cm. Metformin use continues to demonstrate it may abrogate aneurysmal growth. Lastly, there is a subset of patients that exhibit more rapid growth of their small AAAs, and further study will be required to further classify these patients.

Sexual dysfunction damages: A legal database review

INTRODUCTION

Procedural specialties are at higher risk for malpractice claims than non-procedural specialties. Previous studies have examined common damages and malpractice lawsuits resulting from specific procedures. Our goal was to analyze urological interventions that led to sexual dysfunction claims.

METHODS

The Casetext legal research platform was queried using search terms for medical malpractice and common men's health procedures between 1993 and 2020. In total, 236 cases were found and 21 cases met the inclusion criteria: malpractice cases against a urologist or urology group, clearly stated legal outcome, and allegation of sexual dysfunction from an intervention that directly caused damages.

RESULTS

A total of 42 damages were cited in 21 lawsuits. The top three damages claimed were erectile dysfunction (14/42, 33.3%), genital pain syndrome (7/42, 16.7%), and urinary incontinence (5/42, 11.9%). The most commonly cited treatments were urinary catheter placement or removal (3/21, 14.3%), robotic-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALP) (3/21, 14.3%), circumcision (3/21, 14.3%), and penile implant (3/21, 14.3%). In 19 of 21 suits (90.4%), the outcome favored the defendant. Two cases favored the plaintiff: penile implant (failure to prove the patient was permanently, organically impotent prior to the procedure; $300 000) and vasectomy (damage to vasculature resulting in loss of testicle, $300 000).

CONCLUSIONS

Most suspected malpractice cases resulting in sexual dysfunction favored the defendant urologist. Interestingly, urinary catheter placement is as likely to result in litigation as other operative interventions, such as RALP, inflatable penile prosthesis, and circumcision. It is possible that thorough preoperative counselling and increased responsiveness to patients' postoperative concerns may have avoided litigation in several cases.

Electronic Medical Record Search Engine (EMERSE): An Information Retrieval Tool for Supporting Cancer Research

PURPOSE

The Electronic Medical Record Search Engine (EMERSE) is a software tool built to aid research spanning cohort discovery, population health, and data abstraction for clinical trials. EMERSE is now live at three academic medical centers, with additional sites currently working on implementation. In this report, we describe how EMERSE has been used to support cancer research based on a variety of metrics.

METHODS

We identified peer-reviewed publications that used EMERSE through online searches as well as through direct e-mails to users based on audit logs. These logs were also used to summarize use at each of the three sites. Search terms for two of the sites were characterized using the natural language processing tool MetaMap to determine to which semantic types the terms could be mapped.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 326 peer-reviewed publications that used EMERSE through August 2019, although this is likely an underestimation of the true total based on the use log analysis. Oncology-related research comprised nearly one third (n = 105; 32.2%) of all research output. The use logs showed that EMERSE had been used by multiple people at each site (nearly 3,500 across all three) who had collectively logged into the system > 100,000 times. Many user-entered search queries could not be mapped to a semantic type, but the most common semantic type for terms that did match was “disease or syndrome,” followed by “pharmacologic substance.”

CONCLUSION

EMERSE has been shown to be a valuable tool for supporting cancer research. It has been successfully deployed at other sites, despite some implementation challenges unique to each deployment environment.

Putative intranuclear coccidium in Mauremys leprosa (Schweigger) from Morocco

Although intranuclear coccidiosis was first identified in chelonians less than 30 years ago, it is now considered an important emerging disease. Symptoms include anorexia, weakness and weight loss, potentially leading to death of the infected animal. The use of molecular tools has led to improved diagnosis and has also led to an increase in known host species. Here we report a putative intranuclear coccidium in Mauremys leprosa (Schweigger), from Morocco, based on 18S rDNA sequence analysis. This is, to the best of our knowledge, the first report of this parasite from a freshwater terrapin species.

Service evaluation of the bereavement care delivered in a UK intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Losing a loved one in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be a traumatic experience. The literature highlights that relatives of those who have died in ICU can experience symptoms of stress, anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and prolonged grief.

AIM

To evaluate the service delivery of the bereavement care that is provided on a 20-bed general ICU.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A literature review informing and supporting the service evaluation and development of the questionnaire. Thematic analysis was undertaken using the six-phase framework.

FINDINGS

Five main themes were found: timing; care, dignity and respect; support; information; and memory making. Bereavement care is described as after-death care. However, the participants stipulated that bereavement care should be discussed prior to the death. Participants described using a range of interventions, such as memorial services, condolence letters, follow-up meetings and diaries.

CONCLUSION

Bereavement care was regarded as an important aspect of the care delivered in ICU. It was evident that participants strived to deliver an holistic approach, yet some found this difficult to achieve.

On the diversity and distribution of a data deficient habitat in a poorly mapped region: The case of Sabellaria alveolata L. in Ireland

Data that can be used to monitor biodiversity through time are essential for conservation and management. The reef-forming worm, Sabellaria alveolata (L. 1767) is currently classed as 'Data Deficient' due to an imbalance in the spread of data on its distribution. Little is known about the distribution of this species around Ireland. Using data archaeology, we collated past and present distribution records and discovered that S. alveolata has a discontinuous distribution with large gaps between populations. Many regions lack data and should be targeted for sampling. Biodiversity surveys revealed that S. alveolata supported diverse epibiotic algal communities. Retrograding (declining) reefs supported greater infaunal diversity than prograding (growing) reefs or sand, suggesting that S. alveolata is a dynamic ecosystem engineer that has a lasting legacy effect. Similar research should be carried out for other Data Deficient species, habitats and regions. Such data are invaluable resources for management and conservation.

Epilepsy, antiepileptic drugs, and the risk of major cardiovascular events

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to determine whether epilepsy and antiepileptic drugs (including enzyme-inducing and non-enzyme-inducing drugs) are associated with major cardiovascular events using population-level, routinely collected data.

METHODS

Using anonymized, routinely collected, health care data in Wales, UK, we performed a retrospective matched cohort study (2003-2017) of adults with epilepsy prescribed an antiepileptic drug. Controls were matched with replacement on age, gender, deprivation quintile, and year of entry into the study. Participants were followed to the end of the study for the occurrence of a major cardiovascular event, and survival models were constructed to compare the time to a major cardiovascular event (cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease, clinically significant arrhythmia, thromboembolism, onset of heart failure, or a cardiovascular death) for individuals in the case group versus the control group.

RESULTS

There were 10 241 cases (mean age = 49.6 years, 52.2% male, mean follow-up = 6.1 years) matched to 35 145 controls. A total of 3180 (31.1%) cases received enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs, and 7061 (68.9%) received non-enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs. Cases had an increased risk of experiencing a major cardiovascular event compared to controls (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.51-1.63, p < .001). There was no notable difference in major cardiovascular events between those treated with enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs and those treated with non-enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs (adjusted hazard ratio = .95, 95% CI = .86-1.05, p = .300).

SIGNIFICANCE

Individuals with epilepsy prescribed antiepileptic drugs are at an increased risk of major cardiovascular events compared with population controls. Being prescribed an enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drug is not associated with a greater risk of a major cardiovascular event compared to treatment with other antiepileptic drugs. Our data emphasize the importance of cardiovascular risk management in the clinical care of people with epilepsy.

Eligibility for dapagliflozin in unselected patients hospitalised with decompensated heart failure

Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) who received the sodium-glucose co-transport 2 inhibitor, dapagliflozin, in the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) study have a significant reduction in worsening heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular death. It is uncertain what proportion of patients admitted to a large regional cardiac centre with decompensated heart failure would be eligible for dapagliflozin post-discharge based on their characteristics at discharge. The DAPA-HF study criteria were retrospectively applied to a cohort of 521 consecutive patients referred to the inpatient HF service in a tertiary cardiac centre in South West Wales between April 2017 and April 2018. Inclusion criteria: left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40%, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-IV symptoms and an elevated N-terminal pro-B-type naturietic peptide (NT-proBNP). Exclusion criteria: systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 95 mmHg, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 or type 1 diabetes mellitus. We did not have complete NTproBNP data for the cohort, as it was not routinely measured at the time in our institute. There were 478 patients, mean age 78 ± 13 years, 57% male and 91% NYHA class II-IV symptoms, were included in the analysis. Of these, 247 patients had HFrEF, 219 (46%) patients met the inclusion criteria, 231 (48%) were excluded as LVEF was > 40%, and 48 (10%) were excluded with NYHA class I symptoms. Of the 219 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 13 (5.9%) had a SBP < 95 mmHg, 48 (22%) had eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2, leaving 136 (28.5% of total and 55% of those with HFrEF) who met DAPA-HF study criteria. In our study, 28.5% of all heart failure admissions and 55% of patients with HFrEF would be eligible for dapagliflozin post-discharge according to the DAPA-HF study entry criteria.

P90 PERCEIVE: PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcome following major lower limb amputation - a collaboratIVE study

Introduction

Major Lower Limb Amputation (MLLA) is a life changing event with significant morbidity and mortality. Inaccurate risk prediction can lead to poor decision making, resulting in delay to definitive surgery, or undertaking amputation when not in the patient’s best interest. We aim to answer: In adult patients undergoing MLLA for chronic limb threatening ischaemia or diabetes, how accurately do health care professionals prospectively predict outcomes after MLLA, and how does this compare to existing prediction tools?

Methods

A multicentre prospective observational cohort study is being delivered through the Vascular and Endovascular Research Network. Dissemination was via an existing network of contacts and social media.

Consecutive data will be collected for seven months from site launch date, including demographic data and pre-operative outcome predictions from surgeons, anaesthetists, and allied healthcare professionals. Follow-up data will comprise 30-day (mortality, morbidity, MLLA revision, surgical site infection, and blood transfusion) and 1-year (mortality, MLLA revision and ambulation). The accuracy of surgeons’ predictions will be evaluated and compared to pre-existing risk prediction scoring tools.

Results

PERCEIVE launched on 01/10/2020 with 23 centres (16 UK, 7 international) registered to collect data. 50 other centres (27 UK, 23 international) have expressed interest/are pursuing local audit/ethical approval. We aim to collect data on clinicians estimate of outcomes for over 500 patients.

Discussion

This study will utilise a trainee research network to provide data on the accuracy of healthcare professionals’ predictions of outcomes following MLLA and compare this to the utility of existing prediction tools in this patient cohort.

Long-term cancer surveillance: results from the Forteo Patient Registry Surveillance Study

The Forteo Patient Registry estimated the incidence of osteosarcoma in US patients treated with teriparatide and enrolled in the study between 2009 and 2019. No incident cases of osteosarcoma were identified among patients registered, and the crude incidence rate was 0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0-10.2) cases per million person-years.

PURPOSE

The prospective, voluntary Forteo Patient Registry was established to estimate the incidence of osteosarcoma in patients who have received treatment with teriparatide (Forteo).

METHODS

Information on US adults prescribed teriparatide and enrolled in the Forteo Patient Registry 2009-2019 was linked with data from participating state cancer registries annually (2010-2019) to identify incident osteosarcoma cases using a standardized linkage algorithm. Teriparatide exposure was ascertained from self-reported data that included teriparatide initiation and demographics necessary to complete linkage. Osteosarcoma cases diagnosed on or after January 1, 2009, were identified by participating state cancer registries. The crude incidence rate (IR) and standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of observed cases to the expected number of cases adjusted to the background rate (3 per million person-years) and corresponding 95% CIs for the occurrence of osteosarcoma were calculated whereby the cumulative amount of person-time observed was adjusted for mortality.

RESULTS

Data for 75,247 enrolled patients (representing 361,763 cumulative person-years) were linked to each of 42 participating state cancer registries (covering 93% of the US population), which included information on 6180 cases of osteosarcoma. No matches with incident cases of osteosarcoma following registry enrollment were found. The crude IR was 0 (95% CI, 0-10.2) cases per million person-years and the SIR was 0 (95% CI, 0-3.0).

CONCLUSIONS

The ability to draw conclusions about the incidence of osteosarcoma among patients participating in the registry was limited due to the smaller than expected amount of patient follow-up time and the fact that no cases were identified.

Impact of lanadelumab on health-related quality of life in patients with hereditary angioedema in the HELP study

Background

An objective of the phase 3 HELP Study was to investigate the effect of lanadelumab on health‐related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE).

Methods

Patients with HAE‐1/2 received either lanadelumab 150 mg every 4 weeks (q4wks; n = 28), 300 mg q4wks (n = 29), 300 mg every 2 weeks (q2wks; n = 27), or placebo (n = 41) for 26 weeks (days 0–182). The Angioedema Quality of Life Questionnaire (AE‐QoL) was administered monthly, consisting of four domain (functioning, fatigue/mood, fears/shame, nutrition) and total scores. The generic EQ‐5D‐5L questionnaire was administered on days 0, 98, and 182. Comparisons were made between placebo and (a) all lanadelumab‐treated patients and (b) individual lanadelumab groups for changes in scores (day 0–182) and proportions achieving the minimal clinically important difference (MCID, −6) in AE‐QoL total score.

Results

Compared with the placebo group, the lanadelumab total group demonstrated significantly greater improvements in AE‐QoL total and domain scores (mean change, −13.0 to −29.3; p < 0.05 for all); the largest improvement was in functioning. A significantly greater proportion of the lanadelumab total group achieved the MCID (70% vs 37%; p = 0.001). The lanadelumab 300 mg q2wks group had the highest proportion (81%; p = 0.001) and was 7.2 times more likely to achieve the MCID than the placebo group. Mean EQ‐5D‐5L scores at day 0 were high in all groups, indicating low impairment, with no significant changes at day 182.

Conclusion

Patients with HAE‐1/2 experienced significant and clinically meaningful improvements in HRQoL measured by AE‐QoL following lanadelumab treatment in the HELP Study.

Acute traumatic coagulopathy and the relationship to prehospital care and on-scene red blood cell transfusion

OBJECTIVE

To identify the incidence of acute traumatic coagulopathy (ATC) in trauma patients presenting to the Royal Adelaide Hospital, analyse prehospital contributors, including red blood cell transfusion and assess the clinical significance of ATC.

METHODS

A retrospective database review was undertaken using conventional coagulation assays and viscoelastic testing (ROTEM) for diagnosis of ATC.

RESULTS

Baseline ATC incidence is 10% in trauma patients, increasing to over 80% among those where the prehospital team has attended and given a transfusion of red cells. ATC was significantly associated with higher severity of trauma (odds ratio [OR] 1.11, P < 0.0001), prehospital (OR 11.8, P < 0.0001) and in-hospital blood transfusions (OR 17.9, P < 0.0001), and massive transfusions (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Prehospital blood transfusions are given to the most severely injured trauma patients and the incidence of ATC in this group is more than 80%. There is an association with prehospital blood transfusion and increased ATC in part related to patient selection and severity of trauma, with the contribution of red cell transfusions to ATC unclear. This association should allow earlier identification of patients at increased risk of ATC to ensure rapid correction of coagulopathy to decrease the morbidity and mortality of trauma.

A National Level Case-Control Study for Determining Risk of Major Cardiovascular Events in People with Epilepsy

IntroductionThe risk of cardiovascular events amongst people with epilepsy who are receiving enzyme-inducing anti-epileptic drugs (EIAEDs) seems to be higher than those on other medications and the general population. National-level record linkage enables development of case-control studies at a wider scope accounting for multiple factors. Objectives and ApproachPeople with epilepsy were identified between 2003-01-01 and 2017-12-31 and were matched to a control group on: age, gender, deprivation quintile and year of diagnosis, accounting for any changes in clinical therapeutic guidelines. Primary and secondary care population records were linked to capture relevant comorbidities and major cardiovascular events. Annual district birth and death extract were used in combination with the Welsh Demographic Service (WDS) dataset to capture demographic and cardiovascular related death records. The WDS dataset was used to identify eligible control groups for each case and a linkage approach between the control and case database was developed for matching cases and controls with replacement and randomization. Survival analysis was conducted to evaluate the difference in time to first major cardiovascular event in patients receiving EIAED versus Non-EIAEDs and controls. Results10,241 cases (mean age 49.6 years, 52.2% male) with diagnosis of epilepsy were matched to 35,145 controls. 3,180 (31.1%) cases received EIAEDs and 7,061 (68.9%) received non-EIAEDs. The risk of experiencing a major cardiovascular event was higher in cases compared to controls (adjusted hazard ratio 1.52,95%CI[1.50–1.55];p<0.001). There was no significant difference in cardiovascular events between those treated with non-EIAEDs and EIAEDs (adjusted hazard ratio 1.04,95%CI[0.95-1.12];p=0.407). Conclusion / ImplicationsData linkage provides a unique opportunity and insight into studying disease risk factors. We have shown that individuals with epilepsy prescribed antiepileptic drugs, re at an increased risk of a major cardiovascular events regardless of treatment type (EIAED,NEIAED) compared with a matched control population.