Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

P1755Plasma proteomics in healthy individuals predict myocardial infarction

Background

Currently used models to predict cardiovascular event risk have limited value. It has been shown repetitively that the addition of single biomarkers has modest impact. Recently we observed that a model consisting of a larger array of plasma proteins performed very well in predicting the presence of vulnerable plaques in primary prevention patients. However, the validation of this protein panel in predicting cardiovascular outcomes remains to be established.

Purpose

This study investigated the ability of a 384 preselected protein biomarkers to predict acute myocardial infarction, using state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. Secondly, we compared the performance of this multi-protein risk model to traditional risk engines.

Methods

We selected 822 subjects from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective cohort study, of whom 411 suffered a myocardial infarction during follow-up (median 15 years) compared to 411 controls who remained event-free (median follow-up 20 years). The 384 proteins were measured using proximity extension assay technology. Machine learning algorithms (random forests) were used for the prediction of acute myocardial infarction (ICD code I21–22). Performance of the model was tested against and on top of traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease (refit Framingham). All performance measurements were averaged over several stability selection routines.

Results

Prediction of myocardial infarction using a machine-learning model consisting of 50 plasma proteins resulted in a ROC AUC of 0.74±0.14, in comparison to 0.69±0.17 using traditional risk factors (refit Framingham. Combining the proteins and refit Framingham resulted in a ROC AUC of 0.74±0.15. Focussing on events occurring within 3 years after baseline blood withdrawal, the ROC AUC increased to 0.80±0.09 using 50 plasma proteins, as opposed to 0.67±0.22 using refit Framingham (figure). Combining the protein model with refit Framingham resulted in a ROC AUC of 0.82±0.11 for these events.

Diagnostic performance events <3yrs

Conclusion

High-throughput proteomics outperforms traditional risk factors in prediction of acute myocardial infarction. Prediction of myocardial infarction occurring within 3 years after inclusion showed highest performance. Availability of affordable proteomic approaches and developed machine learning pave the path for clinical implementation of these models in cardiovascular risk prediction.

Acknowledgement/Funding

This study was funded by an ERA-CVD grant (JTC2017) and EU Horizon 2020 grant (REPROGRAM, 667837)

Dairy Product Intake and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in EPIC-InterAct: A Mendelian Randomization Study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the causal association between intake of dairy products and incident type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The analysis included 21,820 European individuals (9,686 diabetes cases) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study. Participants were genotyped, and rs4988235 (LCT-12910C>T), a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) for lactase persistence (LP) that enables digestion of dairy sugar, i.e., lactose, was imputed. Baseline dietary intakes were assessed with diet questionnaires. We investigated the associations between imputed SNP dosage for rs4988235 and intake of dairy products and other foods through linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates for the milk-diabetes relationship were obtained through a two-stage least squares regression.

RESULTS

Each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk (β 17.1 g/day, 95% CI 10.6-23.6) and milk beverages (β 2.8 g/day, 95% CI 1.0-4.5) but not with intake of other dairy products. Other dietary intakes associated with rs4988235 included fruits (β -7.0 g/day, 95% CI -12.4 to -1.7 per additional LP allele), nonalcoholic beverages (β -18.0 g/day, 95% CI -34.4 to -1.6), and wine (β -4.8 g/day, 95% CI -9.1 to -0.6). In instrumental variable analysis, LP-associated milk intake was not associated with diabetes (hazard ratioper 15 g/day 0.99, 95% CI 0.93-1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

rs4988235 was associated with milk intake but not with intake of other dairy products. This MR study does not suggest that milk intake is associated with diabetes, which is consistent with previous observational and genetic associations. LP may be associated with intake of other foods as well, but owing to the modest associations, we consider it unlikely that this caused the observed null result.

A 3-SNP gene risk score and a metabolic risk score both predict hypertriglyceridemia and cardiovascular disease risk

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the causal link between plasma triglyceride (TG) levels and risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) has recently emerged. Individuals with the metabolic syndrome have an increased risk for acquiring elevated TG levels later in life. Moreover, common DNA sequence variations in genes affecting TG levels identify individuals at risk for elevated plasma TG levels.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated whether a 3-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) TG gene risk score (GRS) and a metabolic risk score (MetRS) both improved CVD risk prediction.

METHODS

A 3-SNP GRS and MetRS were generated in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort (n = 20,074) based on 3 SNPs in LPL and APOA5 or the number of Metabolic Syndrome criteria present (maximum 5), respectively. The associations between the 3-SNP GRS, MetRS, TG levels, and CVD risk were evaluated.

RESULTS

The 3-SNP GRS and MetRS were both linearly associated with plasma TG levels, that is, +0.25 mmol/L [95% CI 0.22-0.27] per allele change (P < .001) and +0.72 mmol/L [95% CI 0.70-0.73] per increase of number of metabolic syndrome risk score points (P < .001), respectively. We observed a positive association between the 3-SNP GRS and the risk of CVD with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.35 [95% CI 1.04-1.74] for the highest versus the lowest GRS, which was independent of the MetRS. For the MetRS, the adjusted HR was 2.03 [95% CI 1.73-2.40] for the highest versus the lowest MetRS.

CONCLUSION

Both the 3-SNP GRS and the MetRS are associated with increased plasma TG levels and increased risk for CVD.

Circulating plasma phospholipid fatty acids and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large European cohort

There are both limited and conflicting data on the role of dietary fat and specific fatty acids in the development of pancreatic cancer. In this study, we investigated the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The fatty acid composition was measured by gas chromatography in plasma samples collected at recruitment from375 incident pancreatic cancer cases and375 matched controls. Associations of specific fatty acids with pancreatic cancer risk were evaluated using multivariable conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for established pancreatic cancer risk factors. Statistically significant inverse associations were found between pancreatic cancer incidence and levels of heptadecanoic acid (ORT3-T1 [odds ratio for highest versus lowest tertile] =0.63; 95%CI[confidence interval] = 0.41-0.98; ptrend = 0.036), n-3 polyunsaturated α-linolenic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.60; 95%CI = 0.39-0.92; ptrend = 0.02) and docosapentaenoic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.32-0.85; ptrend = 0.008). Industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk among men (ORT3-T1 = 3.00; 95%CI = 1.13-7.99; ptrend = 0.029), while conjugated linoleic acids were inversely related to pancreatic cancer among women only (ORT3-T1 = 0.37; 95%CI = 0.17-0.81; ptrend = 0.008). Among current smokers, the long-chain n-6/n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk (ORT3-T1 = 3.40; 95%CI = 1.39-8.34; ptrend = 0.007). Results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Our findings suggest that higher circulating levels of saturated fatty acids with an odd number of carbon atoms and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids may be related to lower risk of pancreatic cancer. The influence of some fatty acids on the development of pancreatic cancer may be sex-specific and modulated by smoking.

The descriptive epidemiology of the diurnal profile of bouts and breaks in sedentary time in older English adults

Background

High sedentary time is associated with adverse metabolic health outcomes and mortality in older adults. It has been suggested that breaking up sedentary time may be beneficial for metabolic health; however, population prevalence data are lacking on the patterns of sedentary behaviour which would identify opportunities for intervention.

Methods

We used data of adults aged ≥ 60 years (n = 3705) from the population-based EPIC-Norfolk cohort, to characterize the patterns of total sedentary time, breaks in sedentary time and sedentary bouts across the day and assess their associations with participant characteristics, using multi-level regression. Sedentary time was measured objectively by a hip-mounted accelerometer (ActigraphTM GT1M) worn for 7 days during waking time.

Results

More than 50% of every waking hour was spent sedentary, increasing to a peak of 83% in the evening. On average fewer breaks were accrued in the evenings compared with earlier in the day. Marginally more sedentary time was accrued on weekend days compared with weekdays (difference 7.4 min, 95% confidence interval 5.0-9.7). Large proportions of this sedentary time appear to be accrued in short bouts (bouts of < 10 min for 32% of the time). Older age, being male, being retired, not being in paid employment and having a higher body mass index were associated with greater sedentary time and fewer breaks.

Conclusion

Sedentary time is common throughout the day but peaks in the evenings with fewer breaks and longer bouts. We identified a number of characteristics associated with sedentary time and additionally inversely associated with sedentary breaks, which should inform the development and targeting of strategies to reduce sedentary time among older adults.

A prospective evaluation of plasma phospholipid fatty acids and breast cancer risk in the EPIC study

BACKGROUND

Intakes of specific fatty acids have been postulated to impact breast cancer risk but epidemiological data based on dietary questionnaires remain conflicting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assessed the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and breast cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Sixty fatty acids were measured by gas chromatography in pre-diagnostic plasma phospholipids from 2982 incident breast cancer cases matched to 2982 controls. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate relative risk of breast cancer by fatty acid level. The false discovery rate (q values) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. Subgroup analyses were carried out by estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor expression in the tumours.

RESULTS

A high level of palmitoleic acid [odds ratio (OR) for the highest quartile compared with the lowest OR (Q4-Q1) 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14-1.64; P for trend = 0.0001, q value = 0.004] as well as a high desaturation index (DI16) (16:1n-7/16:0) [OR (Q4-Q1), 1.28; 95% C, 1.07-1.54; P for trend = 0.002, q value = 0.037], as biomarkers of de novo lipogenesis, were significantly associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Levels of industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with ER-negative tumours [OR for the highest tertile compared with the lowest (T3-T1)=2.01; 95% CI, 1.03-3.90; P for trend = 0.047], whereas no association was found for ER-positive tumours (P-heterogeneity =0.01). No significant association was found between n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and breast cancer risk, overall or by hormonal receptor.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that increased de novo lipogenesis, acting through increased synthesis of palmitoleic acid, could be a relevant metabolic pathway for breast tumourigenesis. Dietary trans-fatty acids derived from industrial processes may specifically increase ER-negative breast cancer risk.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of renal cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Wozniak MB, Brennan P, Brenner DR, Overvad K, Olsen A, Tjønneland A, Boutron-Ruault MC, Clavel-Chapelon F, Fagherazzi G, Katzke V, Kühn T, Boeing H, Bergmann MM, Steffen A, Naska A, Trichopoulou A, Trichopoulos D, Saieva C, Grioni S, Panico S, Tumino R, Vineis P, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Peeters PH, Hjartåker A, Weiderpass E, Arriola L, Molina-Montes E, Duell EJ, Santiuste C, Alonso de la Torre R, Barricarte Gurrea A, Stocks T, Johansson M, Ljungberg B, Wareham N, Khaw KT, Travis RC, Cross AJ, Murphy N, Riboli E, Scelo G.Int J Cancer. 2015 Oct 15;137(8):1953-66. [Epub 2015 Apr 28]. doi: 10.1002/ijc.29559

Epidemiologic studies have reported that moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with the risk of renal cancer. However, there is no information available on the associations in renal cancer subsites. From 1992 to 2010, 477,325 men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort were followed for incident renal cancers (n = 931). Baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption was assessed by country-specific, validated dietary questionnaires. Information on past alcohol consumption was collected by lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazard models. In multivariate analysis, total alcohol consumption at baseline was inversely associated with renal cancer; the HR and 95% CI for the increasing categories of total alcohol consumption at recruitment vs. the light drinkers category were 0.78 (0.62-0.99), 0.82 (0.64-1.04), 0.70 (0.55-0.90), and 0.91 (0.63-1.30), respectively, (ptrend = 0.001). A similar relationship was observed for average lifetime alcohol consumption and for all renal cancer subsites combined or for renal parenchyma subsite. The trend was not observed in hypertensive individuals and not significant in smokers. In conclusion, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a decreased risk of renal cancer.

The Dutch SCORE-based risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease

Introduction

Dutch cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of modified SCORE risk charts to estimate 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure). This combined risk is derived from the SCORE mortality risk using multipliers. These multipliers have been shown to underestimate overall CVD risk. We aimed to compare the current Dutch risk charts with charts that estimate a broader range of clinically relevant CVD using updated multipliers.

Methods

We constructed new risk charts for 10-year CVD using updated, recently published multipliers from the EPIC-Norfolk study, based on ratios of fatal CVD to clinically relevant CVD (fatal plus nonfatal CVD requiring hospitalisation for ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and aortic aneurysm). Our primary outcome was the proportion of the three risk categories, i. e. ‘high risk’ (>20% 10-year risk), ‘intermediate risk’ (10–19%) and ‘low risk’ (<10%) in the new risk charts as compared with the current risk charts.

Results

Applying the updated fatal CVD/clinical CVD multipliers led to a marked increase in the high-risk categories (109 (27%) vs. 244 (61%), (p < 0.001)), an absolute increase of 229%. Similarly, the number of low-risk categories decreased (190 (48%) vs. 81 (20%) (p < 0.001)).

Conclusion

The current Dutch risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of clinical CVD, even in the first 10 years. Even when analyses are restricted to CVD events that required hospitalisation, true 10-year risks are more than double the currently estimated risks. Future guidelines may be revised to reflect these findings.

Collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from observational studies of Lp-PLA2 and cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

A large number of observational epidemiological studies have reported generally positive associations between circulating mass and activity levels of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Few studies have been large enough to provide reliable estimates in different circumstances, such as in different subgroups (e.g., by age group, sex, or smoking status) or at different Lp-PLA2 levels. Moreover, most published studies have related disease risk only to baseline values of Lp-PLA2 markers (which can lead to substantial underestimation of any risk relationships because of within-person variability over time) and have used different approaches to adjustment for possible confounding factors.

OBJECTIVES

By combination of data from individual participants from all relevant observational studies in a systematic 'meta-analysis', with correction for regression dilution (using available data on serial measurements of Lp-PLA2), the Lp-PLA2 Studies Collaboration will aim to characterize more precisely than has previously been possible the strength and shape of the age and sex-specific associations of plasma Lp-PLA2 with coronary heart disease (and, where data are sufficient, with other vascular diseases, such as ischaemic stroke). It will also help to determine to what extent such associations are independent of possible confounding factors and to explore potential sources of heterogeneity among studies, such as those related to assay methods and study design. It is anticipated that the present collaboration will serve as a framework to investigate related questions on Lp-PLA2 and cardiovascular outcomes.

METHODS

A central database is being established containing data on circulating Lp-PLA2 values, sex and other potential confounding factors, age at baseline Lp-PLA2 measurement, age at event or at last follow-up, major vascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information about any repeat measurements of Lp-PLA2 and potential confounding factors has been sought to allow adjustment for possible confounding and correction for regression dilution. The analyses will involve age-specific regression models. Synthesis of the available observational studies of Lp-PLA2 will yield information on a total of about 15 000 cardiovascular disease endpoints.

Predicting admissions and time spent in hospital over a decade in a population-based record linkage study: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort

OBJECTIVE

To quantify hospital use in a general population over 10 years follow-up and to examine related factors in a general population-based cohort.

DESIGN

A prospective population-based study of men and women.

SETTING

Norfolk, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

11,228 men and 13,786 women aged 40-79 years in 1993-1997 followed between 1999 and 2009.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Number of hospital admissions and total bed days for individuals over a 10-year follow-up period identified using record linkage; five categories for admissions (from zero to highest ≥ 7) and hospital bed days (from zero to highest ≥ 20 nights).

RESULTS

Over a period of 10 years, 18,179 (72.7%) study participants had at least one admission to hospital, 13.8% with 7 or more admissions and 19.9% with 20 or more nights in hospital. In logistic regression models with outcome ≥ 7 admissions, low education level OR 1.14 (1.05 to 1.24), age OR per 10-year increase 1.75 (1.67 to 1.82), male sex OR 1.32 (1.22 to 1.42), manual social class 1.22 (1.13 to 1.32), current cigarette smoker OR 1.53 (1.37 to 1.71) and body mass index >30 kg/m² OR 1.41 (1.28 to 1.56) all independently predicted the outcome with p<0.0001. Results were similar for those with ≥ 20 hospital bed days. A risk score constructed using male sex, manual social class, no educational qualifications; current smoker and body mass index >30 kg/m², estimated percentages of the cohort in the categories of admission numbers and hospital bed days in stratified age bands with twofold to threefold differences in future hospital use between those with high-risk and low-risk scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The future probability of cumulative hospital admissions and bed days appears independently related to a range of simple demographic and behavioural indicators. The strongest of these is increasing age with high body mass index and smoking having similar magnitudes for predicting risk of future hospital usage.

Healthy lifestyle index and risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in the EPIC cohort study

Several modifiable lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol, certain dietary factors and weight are independently associated with gastric cancer (GC); however, their combined impact on GC risk is unknown. We constructed a healthy lifestyle index to investigate the joint influence of these behaviors on GC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The analysis included 461,550 participants (662 first incident GC cases) with a mean follow-up of 11.4 years. A healthy lifestyle index was constructed, assigning 1 point for each healthy behavior related to smoking status, alcohol consumption and diet quality (represented by the Mediterranean diet) for assessing overall GC and also body mass index for cardia GC and 0 points otherwise. Risk of GC was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models while adjusting for relevant confounders. The highest versus lowest score in the healthy lifestyle index was associated with a significant lower risk of GC, by 51% overall (HR 0.49 95% CI 0.35, 0.70), by 77% for cardia GC (HR 0.23 95% CI 0.08, 0.68) and by 47% for noncardia GC (HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.32, 0.87), p-trends<0.001. Population attributable risk calculations showed that 18.8% of all GC and 62.4% of cardia GC cases could have been prevented if participants in this population had followed the healthy lifestyle behaviors of this index. Adopting several healthy lifestyle behaviors including not smoking, limiting alcohol consumption, eating a healthy diet and maintaining a normal weight is associated with a large decreased risk of GC.

Diabetes and onset of natural menopause: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

STUDY QUESTION

Do women who have diabetes before menopause have their menopause at an earlier age compared with women without diabetes?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Although there was no overall association between diabetes and age at menopause, our study suggests that early-onset diabetes may accelerate menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Today, more women of childbearing age are being diagnosed with diabetes, but little is known about the impact of diabetes on reproductive health.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We investigated the impact of diabetes on age at natural menopause (ANM) in 258 898 women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), enrolled between 1992 and 2000.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Determinant and outcome information was obtained through questionnaires. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the associations of diabetes and age at diabetes diagnosis with ANM, stratified by center and adjusted for age, smoking, reproductive and diabetes risk factors and with age from birth to menopause or censoring as the underlying time scale.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Overall, no association between diabetes and ANM was found (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-1.01). However, women with diabetes before the age of 20 years had an earlier menopause (10-20 years: HR = 1.43; 95% CI 1.02-2.01, <10 years: HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.03-2.43) compared with non-diabetic women, whereas women with diabetes at age 50 years and older had a later menopause (HR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.70-0.95). None of the other age groups were associated with ANM.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Strengths of the study include the large sample size and the broad set of potential confounders measured. However, results may have been underestimated due to survival bias. We cannot be sure about the sequence of the events in women with a late age at diabetes, as both events then occur in a short period. We could not distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Based on the literature, an accelerating effect of early-onset diabetes on ANM might be plausible. A delaying effect of late-onset diabetes on ANM has not been reported before, and is not in agreement with recent studies suggesting the opposite association.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMMF) (Germany); Ministry of Health and Social Solidarity, Stavros Niarchos Foundation and Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC) and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); ERC-2009-AdG 232997 and Nordforsk, Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council and Regional Government of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Food Standards Agency, and Wellcome Trust (UK). None of the authors reported a conflict of interest.

Consumption of fatty foods and incident type 2 diabetes in populations from eight European countries

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Diets high in saturated and trans fat and low in unsaturated fat may increase type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but studies on foods high in fat per unit weight are sparse. We assessed whether the intake of vegetable oil, butter, margarine, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies is related to incident T2D.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

A case-cohort study was conducted, nested within eight countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC), with 12,403 incident T2D cases and a subcohort of 16,835 people, identified from a cohort of 340,234 people. Diet was assessed at baseline (1991-1999) by country-specific questionnaires. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) across four categories of fatty foods (nonconsumers and tertiles among consumers) were combined with random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

After adjustment not including body mass index (BMI), nonconsumers of butter, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies were at higher T2D risk compared with the middle tertile of consumption. Among consumers, cakes and cookies were inversely related to T2D (HRs across increasing tertiles 1.14, 1.00 and 0.92, respectively; P-trend <0.0001). All these associations attenuated upon adjustment for BMI, except the higher risk of nonconsumers of cakes and cookies (HR 1.57). Higher consumption of margarine became positively associated after BMI adjustment (HRs across increasing consumption tertiles: 0.93, 1.00 and 1.12; P-trend 0.03). Within consumers, vegetable oil, butter and nuts and seeds were unrelated to T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Fatty foods were generally not associated with T2D, apart from weak positive association for margarine. The higher risk among nonconsumers of cakes and cookies needs further explanation.

Diabetes mellitus and risk of prostate cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

The current epidemiologic evidence suggests that men with type 2 diabetes mellitus may be at lower risk of developing prostate cancer, but little is known about its association with stage and grade of the disease. The association between self-reported diabetes mellitus at recruitment and risk of prostate cancer was examined in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Among 139,131 eligible men, 4,531 were diagnosed with prostate cancer over an average follow-up of 12 years. Multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models stratified by EPIC-participating center and age at recruitment, and adjusted for education, smoking status, body mass index, waist circumference, and physical activity. In a subset of men without prostate cancer, the cross-sectional association between circulating concentrations of androgens and insulin-like growth factor proteins with diabetes status was also investigated using linear regression models. Compared to men with no diabetes, men with diabetes had a 26% lower risk of prostate cancer (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.86). There was no evidence that the association differed by stage (p-heterogeneity, 0.19) or grade (p-heterogeneity, 0.48) of the disease, although the numbers were small in some disease subgroups. In a subset of 626 men with hormone measurements, circulating concentrations of androstenedione, total testosterone and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-three were lower in men with diabetes compared to men without diabetes. This large European study has confirmed an inverse association between self-reported diabetes mellitus and subsequent risk of prostate cancer.

Dietary folate intake and breast cancer risk: European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the association between dietary folate intake and the risk of breast cancer (BC) by hormone receptor expression in the tumors. We investigated the relationship between dietary folate and BC risk using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

METHODS

A total of 367993 women age 35 to 70 years were recruited in 10 European countries. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 11575 women with BC were identified. Dietary folate intake was estimated from country-specific dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to quantify the association between dietary variables and BC risk. BC tumors were classified by receptor status. Subgroup analyses were performed by menopausal status and alcohol intake. Intake of other B vitamins was considered. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

A borderline inverse association was observed between dietary folate and BC risk (hazard ratio comparing top vs bottom quintile [HRQ5-Q1] = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.83 to 1.01, P trend = .037). In premenopausal women, we observed a statistically significant trend towards lower risk in estrogen receptor-negative BC (HRQ5-Q1 = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.96, P trend = .042) and progesterone receptor-negative BC (HRQ5-Q1 = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.97, P trend = .021). No associations were found in postmenopausal women. A 14% reduction in BC risk was observed when comparing the highest with the lowest dietary folate tertiles in women having a high (>12 alcoholic drinks/week) alcohol intake (HRT3-T1 = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.98, P interaction = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher dietary folate intake may be associated with a lower risk of sex hormone receptor-negative BC in premenopausal women.

Consumption of predefined 'Nordic' dietary items in ten European countries - an investigation in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

OBJECTIVE

Health-beneficial effects of adhering to a healthy Nordic diet index have been suggested. However, it has not been examined to what extent the included dietary components are exclusively related to the Nordic countries or if they are part of other European diets as well, suggesting a broader preventive potential. The present study describes the intake of seven a priori defined healthy food items (apples/pears, berries, cabbages, dark bread, shellfish, fish and root vegetables) across ten countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and examines their consumption across Europe.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study. A 24 h dietary recall was administered through a software program containing country-specific recipes. Sex-specific mean food intake was calculated for each centre/country, as well as percentage of overall food groups consumed as healthy Nordic food items. All analyses were weighted by day and season of data collection.

SETTING

Multi-centre, European study.

SUBJECTS

Persons (n 36 970) aged 35-74 years, constituting a random sample of 519 978 EPIC participants.

RESULTS

The highest intakes of the included diet components were: cabbages and berries in Central Europe; apples/pears in Southern Europe; dark bread in Norway, Denmark and Greece; fish in Southern and Northern countries; shellfish in Spain; and root vegetables in Northern and Central Europe. Large inter-centre variation, however, existed in some countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Dark bread, root vegetables and fish are strongly related to a Nordic dietary tradition. Apples/pears, berries, cabbages, fish, shellfish and root vegetables are broadly consumed in Europe, and may thus be included in regional public health campaigns.

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet and risk of bladder cancer in the EPIC cohort study

There is growing evidence of the protective role of the Mediterranean diet (MD) on cancer. However, to date no epidemiological study has investigated the influence of the MD on bladder cancer. We evaluated the association between adherence to the MD and risk of urothelial cell bladder cancer (UCC), according to tumor aggressiveness, in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The analysis included 477,312 participants, recruited from ten European countries between 1991 and 2000. Information from validated dietary questionnaires was used to develop a relative Mediterranean diet score (rMED), including nine dietary components. Cox regression models were used to assess the effect of the rMED on UCC risk, while adjusting for dietary energy and tobacco smoking of any kind. Stratified analyses were performed by sex, BMI, smoking status, European region and age at diagnosis. During an average follow-up of 11 years, 1,425 participants (70.9% male) were diagnosed with a first primary UCC. There was a negative but non-significant association between a high versus low rMED score and risk of UCC overall (HR: 0.84 [95% CI 0.69, 1.03]) and risk of aggressive (HR: 0.88 [95% CI 0.61, 1.28]) and non-aggressive tumors (HR: 0.78 [95% CI 0.54, 1.14]). Although there was no effect modification in the stratified analyses, there was a significant 34% (p = 0.043) decreased risk of UCC in current smokers with a high rMED score. In EPIC, the MD was not significantly associated with risk of UCC, although we cannot exclude that a MD may reduce risk in current smokers.

Physical activity, sex steroid, and growth factor concentrations in pre- and post-menopausal women: a cross-sectional study within the EPIC cohort

PURPOSE

Increased physical activity (PA) is associated with a reduced risk of several cancers. PA may reduce cancer risk by changing endogenous hormones levels, but relatively little research has focused on this topic. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the relation between PA and endogenous hormone concentrations.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of 798 pre- and 1,360 post-menopausal women included as controls in case-control studies on endogenous hormones (steroids, progesterone, sex-hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), and growth factors) levels, and cancer risk nested within European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort was performed. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to compare geometric mean levels of hormones and SHBG by categories of PA.

RESULTS

In pre-menopausal women, active women had 19 % significantly lower concentrations of androstenedione, 14 % lower testosterone, and 20 % lower free testosterone than inactive women, while no differences were observed for estrogens, progesterone, SHBG, and growth factors. In post-menopausal women, active women had 18 % significantly lower estradiol and 20 % lower free estradiol concentrations than inactive women, while no differences were observed for the other hormones and SHBG. More vigorous forms of physical activity were associated with higher insulin-like growth factor-I concentrations. Adjustment for body mass index did not alter the associations. Overall, the percentage of variance in hormone concentrations explained by PA levels was <2 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the hypothesis of an influence, although small in magnitude, of PA on sex hormone levels in blood, independent of body size.

Area deprivation, individual socioeconomic status and low vision in the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study

Background

Poor vision is associated with lower socioeconomic status, but less is known about its relationship to area deprivation.

Methods

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study Norfolk Eye Study was a cross-sectional study of 8563 participants with completed eye examinations. Logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) visual acuity (VA) was measured using standard protocols and low vision (LV) was defined as Snellen equivalent (VA) ≤6/12 in the better eye. Uncorrected refractive error (URE) was defined as improvement of VA by 2 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution lines with pinhole. The lowest 5% of index of multiple deprivation rank was used to define the most deprived areas. The index of multiple deprivation is a composite measure using routine data from seven domains of deprivation to identify the most disadvantaged areas in England. Logistic regression was used to examine univariable and multivariable associations with LV.

Results

Ninety-six participants with missing data were excluded, leaving 8467 for analysis (98.9%). The mean age of the study group was 68.7 years (SD=8.1, range=48–92), with 55.1% women. LV was present in 263 participants (3.1%, 95% CI 2.7 to 3.5%). LV was associated with deprivation after adjusting for age, sex, education, social class and cataract surgery (OR=1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.6, p=0.03), but this effect was mitigated by additionally adjusting for URE (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.4, p=0.09).

Conclusions

People with LV are more likely to live in the most deprived areas; this association was independent of socioeconomic status and partly mediated by URE. Targeting URE in deprived areas may reduce health inequalities associated with LV.

Pleiotropic effects of obesity-susceptibility loci on metabolic traits: a meta-analysis of up to 37,874 individuals

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Genetic pleiotropy may contribute to the clustering of obesity and metabolic conditions. We assessed whether genetic variants that are robustly associated with BMI and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) also influence metabolic and cardiovascular traits, independently of obesity-related traits, in meta-analyses of up to 37,874 individuals from six European population-based studies.

METHODS

We examined associations of 32 BMI and 14 WHR loci, individually and combined in two genetic predisposition scores (GPSs), with glycaemic traits, blood lipids and BP, with and without adjusting for BMI and/or WHR.

RESULTS

We observed significant associations of BMI-increasing alleles at five BMI loci with lower levels of 2 h glucose (RBJ [also known as DNAJC27], QPTCL: effect sizes -0.068 and -0.107 SD, respectively), HDL-cholesterol (SLC39A8: -0.065 SD, MTCH2: -0.039 SD), and diastolic BP (SLC39A8: -0.069 SD), and higher and lower levels of LDL- and total cholesterol (QPTCL: 0.041 and 0.042 SDs, respectively, FLJ35779 [also known as POC5]: -0.042 and -0.041 SDs, respectively) (all p < 2.4 × 10(-4)), independent of BMI. The WHR-increasing alleles at two WHR loci were significantly associated with higher proinsulin (GRB14: 0.069 SD) and lower fasting glucose levels (CPEB4: -0.049 SD), independent of BMI and WHR. A higher GPS-BMI was associated with lower systolic BP (-0.005 SD), diastolic BP (-0.006 SD) and 2 h glucose (-0.013 SD), while a higher GPS-WHR was associated with lower HDL-cholesterol (-0.015 SD) and higher triacylglycerol levels (0.014 SD) (all p < 2.9 × 10(-3)), independent of BMI and/or WHR.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

These pleiotropic effects of obesity-susceptibility loci provide novel insights into mechanisms that link obesity with metabolic abnormalities.

Consumption of sweet beverages and type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults: results from EPIC-InterAct

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has been shown, largely in American populations, to increase type 2 diabetes incidence. We aimed to evaluate the association of consumption of sweet beverages (juices and nectars, sugar-sweetened soft drinks and artificially sweetened soft drinks) with type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults.

METHODS

We established a case-cohort study including 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants selected from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. After exclusions, the final sample size included 11,684 incident cases and a subcohort of 15,374 participants. Cox proportional hazards regression models (modified for the case-cohort design) and random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the association between sweet beverage consumption (obtained from validated dietary questionnaires) and type 2 diabetes incidence.

RESULTS

In adjusted models, one 336 g (12 oz) daily increment in sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drink consumption was associated with HRs for type 2 diabetes of 1.22 (95% CI 1.09, 1.38) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.26, 1.83), respectively. After further adjustment for energy intake and BMI, the association of sugar-sweetened soft drinks with type 2 diabetes persisted (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.32), but the association of artificially sweetened soft drinks became statistically not significant (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.95, 1.31). Juice and nectar consumption was not associated with type 2 diabetes incidence.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study corroborates the association between increased incidence of type 2 diabetes and high consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks in European adults.

Diabetes mellitus, insulin treatment, diabetes duration, and risk of biliary tract cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma in a European cohort

BACKGROUND

Evidence on associations between self-reported diabetes mellitus, diabetes duration, age at diabetes diagnosis, insulin treatment, and risk of biliary tract cancer (BTC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), independent of general and abdominal obesity is scarce.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis in the EPIC-cohort study among 363 426 participants with self-reported diabetes data. Multivariable adjusted relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were estimated from Cox regression models. In a nested case-control subset, analyses were carried out in HCV/HBV-negative individuals.

RESULTS

During 8.5 years of follow-up, 204 BTC cases [including 75 gallbladder cancer (GBC) cases], and 176 HCC cases were identified. Independent of body mass index and waist-to-height ratio diabetes status was associated with higher risk of BTC and HCC [1.77 (1.00-3.13) and 2.17 (1.36-3.47)]. For BTC, the risk seemed to be higher in participants with shorter diabetes duration and those not treated with insulin. Regarding cancer subsites, diabetes was only associated with GBC [2.72 (1.17-6.31)]. The risk for HCC was particularly higher in participants treated with insulin. The results were not appreciably different in HCV/HBV-negative individuals.

CONCLUSION(S)

This study supports the hypothesis that diabetes is a risk factor for BTC (particularly GBC) and HCC. Further research is required to establish whether diabetes treatment or duration is associated with these cancers.

Consumption of fish and meats and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

BACKGROUND

While higher intake of fish and lower consumption of red/processed meats have been suggested to play a protective role in the etiology of several cancers, prospective evidence for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is limited, particularly in Western European populations.

METHODS

The associations of fish and meats with HCC risk were analyzed in the EPIC cohort. Between 1992 and 2010, 191 incident HCC were identified among 477 206 participants. Baseline diet was assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. A single 24-h diet recall from a cohort subsample was used for calibration. Multivariable proportional hazard regression was utilized to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). In a nested case-control subset (HCC = 122), HBV/HCV status and liver function biomarkers were measured.

RESULTS

HCC risk was inversely associated with intake of total fish (per 20 g/day increase, HR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.95 and HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.97 before and after calibration, respectively). This inverse association was also suggested after adjusting for HBV/HCV status and liver function score (per 20-g/day increase, RR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.66-1.11 and RR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.50-1.09, respectively) in a nested case-control subset. Intakes of total meats or subgroups of red/processed meats, and poultry were not associated with HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large European cohort, total fish intake is associated with lower HCC risk.

Change in HbA1c over 3 years does not improve the prediction of cardiovascular disease over and above HbA1c measured at a single time point

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

HbA1c is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), with 1% higher HbA1c levels associated with a 10-20% increased risk of CVD. Little is known about the association between change in HbA1c over time and cardiovascular risk in non-diabetic populations. This study examined the association between change in HbA1c over time and cardiovascular risk in a non-diabetic British population.

METHODS

We used data on HbA1c collected at baseline and at a second health examination 3 years later among a population of 5,790 non-diabetic men and women who participated in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk. The association between change in HbA1c over 3 years and incident cardiovascular events over the following 8 years was examined using multivariate Cox regression. We also examined whether information on change in HbA1c over time improved prediction of cardiovascular events over a single measure of HbA1c by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (aROC) and computing the net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

The mean change (SD) in HbA1c over 3 years was 0.13% (0.52). During 44,596 person-years of follow-up, 529 cardiovascular events occurred (incidence 11.9 per 1,000 person-years). Each 0.5% rise in HbA1c over 3 years was associated with a 9% increase in risk of a cardiovascular event (HR 1.09; 95% CI 1.01, 1.18) after adjustment for baseline HbA1c and other major cardiovascular risk factors. However, change in HbA1c was not associated with cardiovascular risk after adjustment for HbA1c at follow-up. Multivariate models with and without information on change in HbA1c over time showed a similar aROC of 0.78. Adding change in HbA1c to the model with HbA1c at follow-up did not improve risk classification.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Addition of information on change in HbA1c over 3 years did not improve the prediction of CVD over and above information on HbA1c and other major cardiovascular risk factors from a single time point.

Glycemic index, glycemic load, dietary carbohydrate, and dietary fiber intake and risk of liver and biliary tract cancers in Western Europeans

BACKGROUND

The type and quantity of dietary carbohydrate as quantified by glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL), and dietary fiber may influence the risk of liver and biliary tract cancers, but convincing evidence is lacking.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The association between dietary GI/GL and carbohydrate intake with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; N = 191), intrahepatic bile duct (IBD; N = 66), and biliary tract (N = 236) cancer risk was investigated in 477 206 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Dietary intake was assessed by country-specific, validated dietary questionnaires. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated from proportional hazard models. HBV/HCV status was measured in a nested case-control subset.

RESULTS

Higher dietary GI, GL, or increased intake of total carbohydrate was not associated with liver or biliary tract cancer risk. For HCC, divergent risk estimates were observed for total sugar = 1.43 (1.17-1.74) per 50 g/day, total starch = 0.70 (0.55-0.90) per 50 g/day, and total dietary fiber = 0.70 (0.52-0.93) per 10 g/day. The findings for dietary fiber were confirmed among HBV/HCV-free participants [0.48 (0.23-1.01)]. Similar associations were observed for IBD [dietary fiber = 0.59 (0.37-0.99) per 10 g/day], but not biliary tract cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that higher consumption of dietary fiber and lower consumption of total sugars are associated with lower HCC risk. In addition, high dietary fiber intake could be associated with lower IBD cancer risk.

The link between family history and risk of type 2 diabetes is not explained by anthropometric, lifestyle or genetic risk factors: the EPIC-InterAct study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Although a family history of type 2 diabetes is a strong risk factor for the disease, the factors mediating this excess risk are poorly understood. In the InterAct case-cohort study, we investigated the association between a family history of diabetes among different family members and the incidence of type 2 diabetes, as well as the extent to which genetic, anthropometric and lifestyle risk factors mediated this association.

METHODS

A total of 13,869 individuals (including 6,168 incident cases of type 2 diabetes) had family history data available, and 6,887 individuals had complete data on all mediators. Country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox models were fitted within country, and HRs were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Lifestyle and anthropometric measurements were performed at baseline, and a genetic risk score comprising 35 polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes was created.

RESULTS

A family history of type 2 diabetes was associated with a higher incidence of the condition (HR 2.72, 95% CI 2.48, 2.99). Adjustment for established risk factors including BMI and waist circumference only modestly attenuated this association (HR 2.44, 95% CI 2.03, 2.95); the genetic score alone explained only 2% of the family history-associated risk of type 2 diabetes. The greatest risk of type 2 diabetes was observed in those with a biparental history of type 2 diabetes (HR 5.14, 95% CI 3.74, 7.07) and those whose parents had been diagnosed with diabetes at a younger age (<50 years; HR 4.69, 95% CI 3.35, 6.58), an effect largely confined to a maternal family history.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Prominent lifestyle, anthropometric and genetic risk factors explained only a marginal proportion of the excess risk associated with family history, highlighting the fact that family history remains a strong, independent and easily assessed risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Discovering factors that will explain the association of family history with type 2 diabetes risk will provide important insight into the aetiology of type 2 diabetes.

Association between dietary meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

A diet rich in meat has been reported to contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes. The present study aims to investigate the association between meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-InterAct study, a large prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

METHODS

During 11.7 years of follow-up, 12,403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified among 340,234 adults from eight European countries. A centre-stratified random subsample of 16,835 individuals was selected in order to perform a case-cohort design. Prentice-weighted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for incident diabetes according to meat consumption.

RESULTS

Overall, multivariate analyses showed significant positive associations with incident type 2 diabetes for increasing consumption of total meat (50 g increments: HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.05, 1.12), red meat (HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03, 1.13) and processed meat (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.05, 1.19), and a borderline positive association with meat iron intake. Effect modifications by sex and class of BMI were observed. In men, the results of the overall analyses were confirmed. In women, the association with total and red meat persisted, although attenuated, while an association with poultry consumption also emerged (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.07, 1.34). These associations were not evident among obese participants.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This prospective study confirms a positive association between high consumption of total and red meat and incident type 2 diabetes in a large cohort of European adults.

Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women: influence of beverage type and body size The EPIC-InterAct study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type.

DESIGN

Multicentre prospective case-cohort study.

SETTING

Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.

SUBJECTS

A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes.

INTERVENTIONS

Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information.

RESULTS

Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.78-1.05) for 6.1-12.0 versus 0.1-6.0 g day(-1) , adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.1-96.0 g day(-1) with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92) for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) (P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg m(-2) ) than normal-weight men and women (P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.03 for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) ). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men.

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration and the risk of type 2 diabetes: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort and updated meta-analysis of prospective studies

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Epidemiological evidence is suggestive, but limited, for an association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and risk of type 2 diabetes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis that included new data from previously unpublished studies.

METHODS

Using a nested case-cohort design in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study, we identified a random subcohort and incident type 2 diabetes cases occurring between baseline (1993-1997) and 2006. In the Ely prospective study we identified incident type 2 diabetes cases between 1990 and 2003. We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies on 25(OH)D and type 2 diabetes published in MEDLINE or EMBASE until 31 January 2012, and performed a random-effects meta-analysis combining available evidence with results from the EPIC-Norfolk and Ely studies.

RESULTS

In EPIC-Norfolk, baseline 25(OH)D was lower among incident type 2 diabetes cases (mean [SD] 61.6 [22.4] nmol/l; n=621) vs non-case subcohort participants (mean 65.3 [23.9] nmol/l; n=826). There was an inverse association between baseline 25(OH)D and incident type 2 diabetes in multivariable-adjusted analyses: HR (95% CI) 0.66 (0.45, 0.97), 0.53 (0.34, 0.82), 0.50 (0.32, 0.76), p trend <0.001, comparing consecutive increasing 25(OH)D quartiles with the lowest. In Ely, 37 incident type 2 diabetes cases were identified among 777 participants. In meta-analysis, the combined RR of type 2 diabetes comparing the highest with lowest quartile of 25(OH)D was 0.59 (0.52, 0.67), with little heterogeneity (I (2) =2.7%, p=0.42) between the 11 studies included (3,612 cases and 55,713 non-cases).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

These findings demonstrate an inverse association between circulating 25(OH)D and incident type 2 diabetes. However, causal inference should be addressed through adequately dosed randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation or genetic Mendelian randomisation experiments.

Estimating the potential population impact of stepwise screening strategies for identifying and treating individuals at high risk of Type 2 diabetes: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes risk assessment has been proposed as part of the National Health Service Health Checks programme, and HbA(1c) has recently been recommended as a diagnostic test for diabetes at a threshold of 48 mmol/mol (6.5%). We estimated the potential population impact of different stepwise screening strategies to identify individuals at high risk who might be offered preventive interventions.

METHODS

Using data from 5910 participants in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort with HbA(1c) measurements, we modelled different stepwise screening strategies for identifying and treating individuals at high risk of Type 2 diabetes using different HbA(1c) cut-off points with and without a stage of prestratification. For each strategy, we estimated the number needed to have a diagnostic test, the number needed to treat to prevent one new case of Type 2 diabetes, and the number of new cases that could be prevented in the population over 3 years. Relative risk reductions for estimated effects of intensive lifestyle intervention were derived from the US Diabetes Prevention Program.

RESULTS

Compared with inviting all individuals in an average primary care trust for a diagnostic test, a stepwise screening approach using simple routine data such as age and anthropometric indices could prevent a slightly lower number (lower-upper estimates) of new cases of Type 2 diabetes over 3 years (224 [130-359] and 193 [109-315] cases respectively) but would only require half the population to be invited for a diagnostic blood test. A total of 162 (88-274) cases could be prevented by inviting individuals with a Cambridge risk score of ≥ 0.15, with only 40% of the total population requiring diagnostic blood tests. Using a participant completed questionnaire for risk assessment (FINDRISC) was less effective, mainly relating to the questionnaire response rate. Providing preventive interventions to those with a lower HbA(1c) of 37-< 48 mmol/mol (5.5-< 6.5%) could prevent more cases but with a disproportionately higher workload, compared with using the recommended HbA(1c) threshold of 42-< 48 mmol/mol (6.0-< 6.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with mass screening, an approach using routine data for risk stratification followed by an HbA(1c) test with a threshold of 42-< 48 mmol/mol (6.0-< 6.5%) for identifying individuals suitable for preventive interventions might prevent slightly fewer cases of Type 2 diabetes but with potential cost-savings.

Variety in vegetable and fruit consumption and the risk of gastric and esophageal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

Diets high in vegetables and fruits have been suggested to be inversely associated with risk of gastric cancer. However, the evidence of the effect of variety of consumption is limited. We therefore investigated whether consumption of a variety of vegetables and fruit is associated with gastric and esophageal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Data on food consumption and follow-up on cancer incidence were available for 452,269 participants from 10 European countries. After a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, 475 cases of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas (180 noncardia, 185 cardia, gastric esophageal junction and esophagus, 110 not specified) and 98 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas were observed. Diet Diversity Scores were used to quantify the variety in vegetable and fruit consumption. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to calculate risk ratios. Independent from quantity of consumption, variety in the consumption of vegetables and fruit combined and of fruit consumption alone were statistically significantly inversely associated with the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (continuous hazard ratio per 2 products increment 0.88; 95% CI 0.79-0.97 and 0.76; 95% CI 0.62-0.94, respectively) with the latter particularly seen in ever smokers. Variety in vegetable and/or fruit consumption was not associated with risk of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas. Independent from quantity of consumption, more variety in vegetable and fruit consumption combined and in fruit consumption alone may decrease the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, residual confounding by lifestyle factors cannot be excluded.

The association between prior infection with five serotypes of Coxsackievirus B and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the EPIC-Norfolk study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Infections with Coxsackieviruses have been linked to beta cell dysfunction. Given the importance of beta cell dysfunction in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes, we hypothesised that prior infection with Coxsackieviruses B would increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. The aims of the study were to estimate cross-sectional associations between potential predictors of previous infection and seropositivity for Coxsackievirus B serotypes 1-5 (CBV1-5), and then to assess the association between seropositivity and incident type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Using a case-cohort design nested within the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study, we ascertained n = 603 cases of incident type 2 diabetes. From within the entire cohort we identified a random subcohort of n = 835, without diabetes at baseline. The presence of Coxsackievirus B neutralising antibodies against serotypes 1-5 was assessed using a plaque neutralisation assay. Weighted Cox regression was used to examine the association between presence of antibodies to CBV1-5 and the development of type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

Seropositivity in the subcohort for CBV1-5 was 50%, 67%, 66%, 75% and 45%, respectively. After adjustment for age, sex, BMI, physical activity and family history of diabetes, the presence of antibodies against CBV1-5 was not associated with incident type 2 diabetes, over a mean follow-up of 5.7 years (HR [95% CIs] 0.94 [0.72,1.25], 0.92 [0.68, 1.23], 1.33 [0.98,1.81], 1.16 [0.83,1.61] and 1.03 [0.77,1.39] for CBV1-5, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The presence of antibodies against any of five serotypes of Coxsackievirus B was not associated with incident type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes mellitus, glycated haemoglobin and C-peptide levels in relation to pancreatic cancer risk: a study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

There has been long-standing debate about whether diabetes is a causal risk factor for pancreatic cancer or a consequence of tumour development. Prospective epidemiological studies have shown variable relationships between pancreatic cancer risk and blood markers of glucose and insulin metabolism, overall and as a function of lag times between marker measurements (blood donation) and date of tumour diagnosis.

METHODS

Pre-diagnostic levels of HbA(1c) and C-peptide were measured for 466 participants with pancreatic cancer and 466 individually matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs for pancreatic cancer.

RESULTS

Pancreatic cancer risk gradually increased with increasing pre-diagnostic HbA(1c) levels up to an OR of 2.42 (95% CI 1.33, 4.39 highest [≥ 6.5%, 48 mmol/mol] vs lowest [≤ 5.4%, 36 mmol/mol] category), even for individuals with HbA(1c) levels within the non-diabetic range. C-peptide levels showed no significant relationship with pancreatic cancer risk, irrespective of fasting status. Analyses showed no clear trends towards increasing hyperglycaemia (as marked by HbA(1c) levels) or reduced pancreatic beta cell responsiveness (as marked by C-peptide levels) with decreasing time intervals from blood donation to cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our data on HbA(1c) show that individuals who develop exocrine pancreatic cancer tend to have moderate increases in HbA(1c) levels, relatively independently of obesity and insulin resistance-the classic and major risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there is no strong difference by lag time, more data are needed on this in order to reach a firm conclusion.

Relationship between plasma fibrinogen and fiber intake in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Fiber-rich diets have been proposed to lower circulating levels of inflammatory makers. Our objective was to investigate cross-sectional relationships between fiber intake and plasma fibrinogen.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

We examined the relationship between plasma fibrinogen and dietary fiber in 20,960 men and women, aged 45-75 years old, living in Norfolk, U.K. Fiber intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire.

RESULTS

Mean fibrinogen levels were lower across the increasing quartiles of the fiber intake after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, physical activity, smoking status and alcohol consumption, and total calories, percentage of energy intake from carbohydrate, protein and fat, with a difference of 0.08 g/l fibrinogen between first and fourth quartiles (P for trend <0.001) for the whole population. When categorized by sex, the results for men were the same and for women, the results failed to be significant. In linear regression models, fibrinogen levels were significantly related to fiber intake for the whole population (-0.056 g/l, s.e.=0.012 per 10 g increase in fiber intake, P<0.001), but although the relations were in the same direction after adjusting for the same covariates above, they failed to be significant when smokers or women not using post-menopause hormone therapy were separately considered.

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma fibrinogen levels appear to be inversely related to dietary fiber intake in middle-aged and older men and women.

Design and cohort description of the InterAct Project: an examination of the interaction of genetic and lifestyle factors on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Studying gene-lifestyle interaction may help to identify lifestyle factors that modify genetic susceptibility and uncover genetic loci exerting important subgroup effects. Adequately powered studies with prospective, unbiased, standardised assessment of key behavioural factors for gene-lifestyle studies are lacking. This case-cohort study aims to investigate how genetic and potentially modifiable lifestyle and behavioural factors, particularly diet and physical activity, interact in their influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurring in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts between 1991 and 2007 from eight of the ten EPIC countries were ascertained and verified. Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analyses were used to investigate differences in diabetes incidence by age and sex.

RESULTS

A total of 12,403 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred during 3.99 million person-years of follow-up of 340,234 EPIC participants eligible for InterAct. We defined a centre-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals for comparative analyses. Individuals with incident diabetes who were randomly selected into the subcohort (n = 778) were included as cases in the analyses. All prevalent diabetes cases were excluded from the study. InterAct cases were followed-up for an average of 6.9 years; 49.7% were men. Mean baseline age and age at diagnosis were 55.6 and 62.5 years, mean BMI and waist circumference values were 29.4 kg/m(2) and 102.7 cm in men, and 30.1 kg/m(2) and 92.8 cm in women, respectively. Risk of type 2 diabetes increased linearly with age, with an overall HR of 1.56 (95% CI 1.48-1.64) for a 10 year age difference, adjusted for sex. A male excess in the risk of incident diabetes was consistently observed across all countries, with a pooled HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.64), adjusted for age.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

InterAct is a large, well-powered, prospective study that will inform our understanding of the interplay between genes and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes development.

Non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and cardiovascular risk: moving beyond categorisation to individual interpretation of absolute risk

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Non-diabetic hyperglycaemia is usually not considered at all or is viewed as a binary risk category in isolation from other factors when quantifying cardiovascular risk. We argue that hyperglycaemia should be considered as a continuous risk factor and only in the context of other vascular risk factors. To examine the potential impact of hyperglycaemia on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, we calculated the absolute CVD risk in groups defined by different levels of HbA(1c) and other CVD risk factors.

METHODS

We used data on 10,144 men and women from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk cohort to calculate CVD rates across levels of HbA(1c) in groups characterised by different levels of traditional risk factors.

RESULTS

We found significant differences in CVD rates across levels of HbA(1c) in groups defined by different levels of the other risk factors. CVD rates for non-diabetic individuals with an HbA(1c) of <5.5% increased from 0.6 (95% CI 0.3-1.2) to 29.6 (95% CI 14.8-59.1) per 1,000 person-years when traditional CVD risk factors were added sequentially to the lowest risk reference group. In most cases, non-diabetic individuals with an HbA(1c) of <5.5% and high values for all other CVD risk factors had substantially higher absolute CVD rates than those with an HbA(1c) of 6.0% to 6.4% but with no other raised CVD risk factors (29.6 [95% CI 14.8-59.1] and 2.5 [95% CI 0.4-18.1], respectively). A history of diabetes significantly increased CVD risk over the non-diabetic hyperglycaemia range. Comparisons of CVD rates across tertiles of total cholesterol:HDL-cholesterol ratio or mean systolic blood pressure in groups characterised by different levels of other risk factors showed similar findings.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia, cardiovascular risk is highly dependent on the presence of other CVD risk factors. Attention should be given not to whether an individual has 'pre-diabetes', 'hypertension' or 'hypercholesterolaemia', but to an integrated assessment of CVD risk, based on the combination of risk factors present and potential benefits of treatment.

Association of C-reactive protein with type 2 diabetes: prospective analysis and meta-analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We examined the association between serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and incident diabetes in a prospective study, and added these data to a literature-based meta-analysis to explore potential sources of heterogeneity between studies.

METHODS

We analysed a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort, including 293 incident diabetes cases and 708 controls. We combined 16 published studies on CRP and incident diabetes in a random-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

In the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, serum CRP was associated with a higher risk of diabetes after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, family history of diabetes, smoking and physical activity (OR 1.49, comparing the extreme thirds of CRP distribution [95% CI 1.03-2.15], p = 0.03). However, the association was completely attenuated after further adjustment for WHR, serum gamma-glutamyltransferase and serum adiponectin (OR 1.00; 95% CI 0.66-1.51, p = 1.0). In a meta-analysis of 16 published studies with 3,920 incident diabetes cases and 24,914 controls, the RR was 1.72 (95% CI 1.54-1.92), comparing the extreme thirds of CRP distribution, with substantial heterogeneity between studies (I (2) = 52.8%, p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Initial evidence of association between CRP and incident diabetes was confounded by central adiposity, markers of liver dysfunction and adiponectin in the primary analysis. Despite an overall positive association in the meta-analysis, considerable heterogeneity existed between studies. The degree of adjustment for central adiposity and baseline glycaemia explained some of this heterogeneity and suggests that CRP may not be an independent risk factor for type 2 diabetes.

General and abdominal adiposity and risk of death in Europe

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death.

METHODS

We examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We used a Cox regression analysis, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 9.7 years, 14,723 participants died. The lowest risks of death related to BMI were observed at a BMI of 25.3 for men and 24.3 for women. After adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were strongly associated with the risk of death. Relative risks among men and women in the highest quintile of waist circumference were 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80 to 2.33) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.56 to 2.04), respectively, and in the highest quintile of waist-to-hip ratio, the relative risks were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.84) and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.66), respectively. BMI remained significantly associated with the risk of death in models that included waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that both general adiposity and abdominal adiposity are associated with the risk of death and support the use of waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI in assessing the risk of death.

The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases

Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.

Elevated serum ferritin levels predict new-onset type 2 diabetes: results from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the association between baseline body iron stores and new-onset diabetes.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We studied the association between baseline serum ferritin concentration and type 2 diabetes in 360 clinically incident diabetes cases and 758 controls nested within the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer)-Norfolk Cohort Study. Serum ferritin levels were categorised into five groups: sex-specific quartiles of the normal range of ferritin and a group with clinically raised ferritin below levels indicative of haemochromatosis.

RESULTS

Baseline serum ferritin was higher among cases than control participants (geometric mean: men 96.6 vs 67.8 ng/ml, respectively, p < 0.001; women 45.9 vs 34.8 ng/ml, respectively, p = 0.005). In analyses adjusted for known risk factors (age, BMI, sex, family history, physical activity, smoking habit) and dietary factors measured by 7-day food diary, the risk of diabetes was markedly elevated in participants with clinically raised ferritin compared with the lowest quartile (odds ratio [OR] 7.4, 95% CI 3.5-15.4). Further adjustment for potential confounding by inflammation (C-reactive protein, IL-6 and fibrinogen) had no material impact on the observed association, while adjustment for hepatic enzymes (alanine aminotransferase and gamma glutamyl transferase) and adiponectin attenuated the magnitude of association, but it remained statistically significant (OR 3.2 [1.3-7.6]).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Serum ferritin is an important and independent predictor of the development of diabetes. This finding may have important implications for understanding the aetiology of diabetes.

More acidic dietary acid-base load is associated with reduced calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation in women but not in men: results from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dietary patterns that promote mild metabolic acidosis may have a negative effect on bone density.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the relation between a measure of dietary acid-base load, potential renal acid load (PRAL), and calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) after adjustment for confounders and also compared the results with different estimates of acid-base load.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was conducted in 14 563 men and women aged 42-82 y living in Norfolk, United Kingdom, in which measures of calcaneal BUA and dietary PRAL were estimated by using the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) food-frequency questionnaire.

RESULTS

A more acidic dietary intake (high PRAL) was significantly associated with lower calcaneal BUA in women but not in men; there was a difference of approximately 2% in BUA between the highest and lowest quintiles of PRAL, independent of age, body mass index, smoking habit, physical activity, diagnosed osteoporosis, and history of fracture, and (in women) hormone replacement therapy. No relation was observed between history of fracture or incident fracture and PRAL. Those with the greatest PRAL had higher intakes of meat, fish, eggs, and cereal and cereal products and lower intakes of fruit and vegetables, tea, and coffee.

CONCLUSION

PRAL was inversely associated with bone ultrasound measures in women, but the magnitude of the association was relatively small compared with other known risk factors. Further longitudinal studies are required to establish whether, in the long term, these small effects are important in overall fracture risk in populations.

Effects of physical activity on evolution of proximal femur structure in a younger elderly population

INTRODUCTION

For a fixed weight, a wider bone of standardised length is stiffer. But moving the cortices away from the centre of mass risks creating structural (elastic) instability, and hip fractures have been postulated to occur as a consequence of buckling of the thinned supero-lateral femoral neck cortex during a fall. We hypothesised that stereotyped physical activity (e.g., walking) may help conserve bending resistance (section modulus, Z) through redistribution of bone tissue, but it might be at the expense of supero-lateral cortical stability.

METHODS

Hip structural analysis (HSA) software applied to DXA scans was used to derive measurements of section modulus and distances of a cross-section's centre of mass from the supero-lateral cortical margin (lateral distance, in cm). DXA scans were obtained on 1361 men and women in the EPIC-Norfolk population-based prospective cohort study. Up to 4 repeat DXA scans were done in 8 years of follow-up. Weight, height and activities of daily living were assessed on each occasion. A detailed physical activity and lifestyle questionnaire was administered at baseline. The lateral distance was measured on three narrow cross-sections with good precision: narrow neck (NN, coefficient of variation 2.6%), intertrochanter (IT) and shaft (S). A linear mixed model was used to assess associations with predictors.

RESULTS

Ageing was associated with medial shifting of the centre of mass, so that lateral distance increased. Both greater weight and height were associated with greater lateral distance (P<0.0001). Among physical activity-related variables, walking/cycling for >1 h/day (P=0.025), weekly time spent on moderate impact activity (P=0.003), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (NN and IT, P<0.026) and lifetime physical activity (IT, P<0.0001) were associated with higher lateral distance. However, after adjusting for these variables, activities of daily living scores (NN, P<0.0001) and weekly time spent on low impact hip flexing activities were associated with shorter lateral distance (P=0.001). Greater baseline lateral distance was significantly associated with increased risk of subsequent hip fracture (n=26) in females (P<0.05, all regions) independently of age, height and bone mineral content.

CONCLUSION

The age-related shift medially of the centre of mass of the femoral neck and trochanter may have adverse effects on fracture resistance in the event of a fall, so compromising the beneficial effects of walking on fitness, strength and risk of falling. The role of more diverse physical activity patterns in old age that impose loading on the supero-lateral cortex of the femur, involving for example hip flexion and stretching, needs investigation for their ability to correct this medial shifting of the centre of mass.

Dietary fish intake and plasma phospholipid n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid concentrations in men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk United Kingdom cohort

BACKGROUND

The n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFAs) docosahexaenoic acid and eicosapentaenoic acid, found in fish and fish-oil supplements and also formed by conversion of alpha-linolenic acid in soy and rapeseed (canola) oils, are thought to have cardioprotective effects.

OBJECTIVE

Because the relative feasibility and measurement error of dietary methods varies, this study compared fish and fish-oil intakes obtained from 4 dietary methods with plasma n-3 PUFAs in men and women in a general population.

DESIGN

The study participants were 4949 men and women aged 40-79 y from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk United Kingdom cohort. Measurements of plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFA concentrations and fish intakes were made with the use of 4 dietary methods (food-frequency questionnaire, health and lifestyle questionnaire, 7-d diary, and first-day recall from the 7-d diary).

RESULTS

Amounts of fish consumed and relations with plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFAs were not substantially different between the 4 dietary methods. Plasma n-3 PUFA concentrations were significantly higher in women than in men, were 20% higher in fish-oil consumers than in non-fish-oil consumers, and were twice as high in fatty fish consumers as in total fish consumers. Only approximately 25% of the variation in plasma n-3 PUFA was explained by fish and fish-oil consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

This large study found no substantial differences between dietary methods and observed clear sex differences in plasma n-3 PUFAs. Because variation in n-3 PUFA was only partially determined by fish and fish-oil consumption, this could explain the inconsistent results of observational and intervention studies on coronary artery disease protection.

Tissue factor serum levels and the risk of future coronary artery disease in apparently healthy men and women: the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

INTRODUCTION

Tissue factor (TF) has been implicated in coronary artery disease (CAD). High levels of circulating TF are found in patients with acute atherothrombotic events. Whether high serum TF levels predict risk of future CAD independent of known risk factors remains unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk population study. Cases (n=1037) were apparently healthy men and women, aged 45-79 years, who developed fatal or non-fatal CAD during follow-up. Controls (n=2005) were matched by age, sex, and enrolment time. Serum TF levels were measured using high-affinity antibodies.

RESULTS

In men, median TF levels were not significant higher in cases than in controls (59.0 pg mL-1, range: 16.7-370.4 vs. 54.9 pg mL-1, range: 16.2-452.4). In women, median TF levels were not significant higher in controls than in cases (73.4 pg mL-1, range: 16.7-492.3 vs. 50.5 pg mL-1, range: 16.5-376.7). The incidence of smoking was about double in the lowest compared with the highest TF quartile. Correcting for sex, age, body mass index, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and C-reactive protein levels, the risk of future CAD was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.81-1.36) for people in the highest TF quartile, compared with those in the lowest (P-value for linearity=0.8).

CONCLUSION

High levels of serum TF were not independently associated with an increased risk of future CAD in apparently healthy individuals.

Relationship of alcohol intake and sex steroid concentrations in blood in pre- and post-menopausal women: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

OBJECTIVE

Women with a moderate intake of alcohol have higher concentrations of sex steroids in serum, and higher risk of developing breast cancer, compared to non-drinkers. In the present study, we investigate the relationships between alcohol consumption and serum levels of sex steroids and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG) in 790 pre- and 1,291 post-menopausal women, who were part of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

METHODS

Serum levels of testosterone (T), androstenedione (Delta4), dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), estrone (E1), estradiol (E2) and SHBG were measured by direct immunoassays. Free T (fT) and free E2 (fE2) were calculated according to mass action laws. Current alcohol intake exposure to alcohol was assessed from dietary questionnaires.

RESULTS

Pre-menopausal women who consumed more than 25 g/day of alcohol had about 30% higher DHEAS, T and fT, 20% higher Delta4 and about 40% higher E1, concentrations compared to women who were non-consumers. E2, fE2 and SHBG concentrations showed no association with current alcohol intake. In post-menopausal women, DHEAS, fT, T, Delta4, and E1 concentrations were between 10% and 20% higher in women who consumed more than 25 g/day of alcohol compared to non-consumers. E2 or fE2 were not associated with alcohol intake at all. SHBG levels were about 15% lower in alcohol consumers compared to non-consumers.

CONCLUSION

This study supports the hypothesis of an influence of alcohol intake on sex hormone concentrations in blood.