Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population

Importance

Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies.

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years.

Exposure

Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses.

Results

The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people.

Conclusions and Relevance

Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Olive oil consumption is associated with lower cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among Italian adults: prospective results from the Moli-sani Study and analysis of potential biological mechanisms

BACKGROUND

Olive oil consumption has been reportedly associated with lower mortality rates, mostly from cardiovascular diseases, but its potential impact on cancer death remains controversial. Moreover, biological mechanisms possibly linking olive oil consumption to mortality outcomes remain unexplored.

METHODS

We longitudinally analysed data on 22,892 men and women from the Moli-sani Study in Italy (follow-up 13.1 y), to examine the association of olive oil consumption with mortality. Dietary data were collected at baseline (2005-2010) through a 188-item FFQ, and olive oil consumption was standardised to a 10 g tablespoon (tbsp) size. Diet quality was assessed through a Mediterranean diet score. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, also including diet quality, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The potential mediating role of inflammatory, metabolic, cardiovascular and renal biomarkers on the association between olive oil intake and mortality was evaluated on the basis of change-in-estimate and associated p values.

RESULTS

Multivariable HRs for all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular and other cause mortality associated with high (>3 tbsp/d) versus low (≤1.5 tbsp/d) olive oil consumption were 0.80 (0.69-0.94), 0.77 (0.59-0.99), 0.75 (0.58-0.97) and 0.97 (0.73-1.29), respectively. Taken together, the investigated biomarkers attenuated the association of olive oil consumption with all-cause and cancer mortality by 21.2% and 13.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher olive oil consumption was associated with lower cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates, independent of overall diet quality. Known risk factors for chronic diseases only in part mediated such associations suggesting that other biological pathways are potentially involved in this relationship.

Health and social home services among community-dwelling older people during COVID-19: Results from the cross-sectional LOST in Lombardia project

BACKGROUND

Few studies have focused on changes in health and social services access due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to describe changes in the use of selected health and social home services due to the pandemic and to investigate potential associated factors, including socio-demographic characteristics, number of chronic diseases and mental health indicators, among older Italian individuals.

METHODS

We analysed data from the LOST in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020 on a large representative sample of 4400 individuals aged ⩾65 years. To identify potential factors associated with the increased use of three selected health and social home services, we estimated odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) using multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Compared to the year before, 5.0% of older adults increased help from domestic workers (vs. 6.9% reducing) during the pandemic, 4.4% increased help from non-familiar caregivers (vs. 1.3% decreasing) and 4.7% increased medical home visits (vs. 1.0% decreasing). An increase in the use of these services was more frequent among participants with co-morbidities (p for trend <0.001), especially with diabetes (for caregivers: OR=12.2, 95% CI 6.0-24.8), and worse mental health (for caregivers and for those with a GAD-2 score ⩾3 vs. <3: OR=10.6, 95% CI 5.8-19.4). Conversely, people living in more crowded households less frequently increased health and social services use during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results should inform targeted interventions for the identified vulnerable groups to close the gap in health and social inequities.

Blood-based biological ageing and red cell distribution width are associated with prevalent Parkinson's disease: findings from a large Italian population cohort

Background

Aging clocks tag the actual underlying age of an organism and its discrepancy with chronological age and have been reported to predict incident disease risk in the general population. However, the relationship with neurodegenerative risk and in particular with Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains unclear, with few discordant findings reporting associations with both incident and prevalent PD risk.

Objective

To clarify this relationship, we computed a common aging clock based on blood markers and tested the resulting discrepancy with chronological age (ΔPhenoAge) for association with both incident and prevalent PD risk.

Methods

In a large Italian population cohort - the Moli-sani study (N=23,437; age ≥ 35 years; 52% women) - we carried out both Cox Proportional Hazards regressions modelling ΔPhenoAge as exposure and incident PD as outcome, and linear models testing prevalent PD as exposure and ΔPhenoAge as outcome. All models were incrementally adjusted for age, sex, education level completed and other risk/protective factors previously associated with PD risk in the same cohort (prevalent dysthyroidism, hypertension, diabetes, use of oral contraceptives, exposure to paints, daily coffee intake and cigarette smoking).

Results

No significant association between incident PD risk (209 cases, median (IQR) follow-up time 11.19 (2.03) years) and PhenoAging was observed (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.98 [0.71; 1.37]). However, a small but significant increase of ΔPhenoAge was observed in prevalent PD cases vs healthy subjects (β (Standard Error) = 1.39 (0.70)). An analysis of each component biomarker of PhenoAge revealed a significant positive association of prevalent PD status with red cell distribution width (RDW; β (SE) = 0.46 (0.18)). All the remaining markers did not show any significant evidence of association.

Conclusion

The reported evidence highlights systemic effects of prevalent PD status on biological aging and red cell distribution width. Further cohort and functional studies may help shedding a light on the related pathways altered at the organism level in prevalent PD, like red cells variability, inflammatory and oxidative stress mechanisms.

Perceived work stressors and the transition to burnout among nurses in response to the pandemic: implications for healthcare organizations

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the associations of pre-pandemic perceived work stressors and work satisfaction among nurses, including nurse assistants, with burnout profiles and their transitions in response to the pandemic.

METHODS

Three hundred and thirty-seven nurses working in an Italian University hospital participated in a longitudinal study including a survey in August 2019 investigating perceived work stressors (assessed using the HSE Indicator Tool), work satisfaction (Work Satisfaction Scale), and burnout (Maslach Burnout Inventory), and a second survey in December 2020 assessing burnout. Using latent transition analysis, we identified burnout profiles and then estimated the associations between work stressors and satisfaction on profiles and transitions.

RESULTS

We identified three pre-pandemic profiles, namely engaged (67%), ineffective (15%), and burnout (18%); and three pandemic profiles, namely engaged (37%), exhausted (51%), and severe burnout (12%). The severe burnout profile consisted of 70% nurses classified in the burnout profile before the pandemic. Overall, work stressors and satisfaction were associated with both pre-pandemic and pandemic burnout profiles. Among nurses not in the burnout profile prior to COVID-19, pre-pandemic hostile relationships increased [odds ratio (OR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.34] and work satisfaction decreased (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.68-0.98) the probability to transition to exhausted. Moreover, work satisfaction (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32-0.91) and participation in work organization (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.93) protected from transitioning to severe burnout. The association between peer support and the transition to exhausted needs further investigation.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-pandemic work stressors and satisfaction were associated with pandemic burnout and burnout transitions. To enhance preparedness for future crises, healthcare managers should carefully assess and tackle work-related constraints affecting nurses.

Underrated aspects of a true Mediterranean diet: understanding traditional features for worldwide application of a "Planeterranean" diet

Over the last decades, the Mediterranean diet gained enormous scientific, social, and commercial attention due to proven positive effects on health and undeniable taste that facilitated a widespread popularity. Researchers have investigated the role of Mediterranean-type dietary patterns on human health all around the world, reporting consistent findings concerning its benefits. However, what does truly define the Mediterranean diet? The myriad of dietary scores synthesizes the nutritional content of a Mediterranean-type diet, but a variety of aspects are generally unexplored when studying the adherence to this dietary pattern. Among dietary factors, the main characteristics of the Mediterranean diet, such as consumption of fruit and vegetables, olive oil, and cereals should be accompanied by other underrated features, such as the following: (i) specific reference to whole-grain consumption; (ii) considering the consumption of legumes, nuts, seeds, herbs and spices often untested when exploring the adherence to the Mediterranean diet; (iii) consumption of eggs and dairy products as common foods consumed in the Mediterranean region (irrespectively of the modern demonization of dietary fat intake). Another main feature of the Mediterranean diet includes (red) wine consumption, but more general patterns of alcohol intake are generally unmeasured, lacking specificity concerning the drinking occasion and intensity (i.e., alcohol drinking during meals). Among other underrated aspects, cooking methods are rather simple and yet extremely varied. Several underrated aspects are related to the quality of food consumed when the Mediterranean diet was first investigated: foods are locally produced, minimally processed, and preserved with more natural methods (i.e., fermentation), strongly connected with the territory with limited and controlled impact on the environment. Dietary habits are also associated with lifestyle behaviors, such as sleeping patterns, and social and cultural values, favoring commensality and frugality. In conclusion, it is rather reductive to consider the Mediterranean diet as just a pattern of food groups to be consumed decontextualized from the social and geographical background of Mediterranean culture. While the methodologies to study the Mediterranean diet have demonstrated to be useful up to date, a more holistic approach should be considered in future studies by considering the aforementioned underrated features and values to be potentially applied globally through the concept of a "Planeterranean" diet.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Long-Term Risk of Arterial Thrombosis After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: MUCH-Italy

BACKGROUND

The identification of patients surviving an acute intracerebral hemorrhage who are at a long-term risk of arterial thrombosis is a poorly defined, crucial issue for clinicians.

METHODS

In the setting of the MUCH-Italy (Multicenter Study on Cerebral Haemorrhage in Italy) prospective observational cohort, we enrolled and followed up consecutive 30-day intracerebral hemorrhage survivors to assess the long-term incidence of arterial thrombotic events, to assess the impact of clinical and radiological variables on the risk of these events, and to develop a tool for estimating such a risk at the individual level. Primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or other arterial thrombotic events. A point-scoring system was generated by the β-coefficients of the variables independently associated with the long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, and the predictive MUCH score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores.

RESULTS

Overall, 1729 patients (median follow-up time, 43 months [25th to 75th percentile, 69.0]) qualified for inclusion. Arterial thrombotic events occurred in 169 (9.7%) patients. Male sex, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, and personal history of coronary artery disease were associated with increased long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, whereas the use of statins and antithrombotic medications after the acute intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with a reduced risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MUCH score predictive validity was 0.716 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) for the 0- to 1-year score, 0.672 (95% CI, 0.58-0.73) for the 0- to 5-year score, and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the 0- to 10-year score. C statistic for the prediction of events that occur from 0 to 10 years was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Intracerebral hemorrhage survivors are at high long-term risk of arterial thrombosis. The MUCH score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.

Dietary indices underpinning front-of-pack nutrition labels and health outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Nutrient profiling systems are increasingly used to characterize the healthfulness of foods for front-of-package (FOP) labeling, which have been proposed as an effective public health strategy to help people make healthier food choices.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to review available evidence from cohort studies that evaluated the association of dietary indices underpinning FOP nutrition labels with all-cause mortality and incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) or cancer.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus were systematically searched up to October 2023. We included articles if they were prospective cohort studies, if the exposure was any dietary index underpinning FOP nutrition labels [e.g., the modified Food Standard Agency-Nutrient Profiling System (FSAm-NPS) and the Health Star Rating System], and if outcomes were all-cause mortality or incidence of or mortality due to CVD and cancer. Random-effects models were used to calculate the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

We identified 11 records (7 unique prospective studies), which were included in the systematic review. The meta-analysis comprised 8 studies analyzing the FSAm-NPS dietary index (DI) as exposure. The pooled HRs associated with a 2-unit increase in the FSAm-NPS DI of all-cause mortality, CVD, and cancer risk were 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99, 1.13; I2: 80%), 1.08 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.18; I2: 70%), and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.19; I2: 77%), respectively. The Chilean Warning Label score and the Health Star Rating systems were examined by 1 study each and were significantly associated with the outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

DIs underpinning most common FOP nutrition labels and reflecting nutrient-poor diets show a tendency toward an increased incidence of CVD and cancer, but the observed effects are quite modest in magnitude. Further studies at the population level are needed to support the widely shared hypothesis that FOP labels, possibly in conjunction with other interventions, may contribute to reduce noncommunicable disease risk. This meta-analysis was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42021292625.

Endogenous thrombin potential and time-dependent thrombin generation parameters are independent risk factors for mortality in the general population

BACKGROUND

Thrombin generation (TG) is used as a global test of coagulation and is an indicator of thrombosis and bleeding risk. Until now, data on the association of TG and mortality are inconclusive.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the association between TG and mortality in the prospective Moli-sani cohort (n = 21 920).

METHODS

TG was measured using calibrated automated thrombinography using PPP-Reagent Low. Lag time (LT), endogenous thrombin potential (ETP), peak height, time-to-peak (TTP), and velocity index were quantified. The association of TG and mortality was studied by Cox regression and adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, smoking, contraceptives, and medical history (cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and cancer).

RESULTS

LT and TTP were 4.1 ± 1.0 minutes and 6.6 ± 1.5 minutes, on average. The peak height was 364 ± 88 nM, velocity index was 163 ± 63 nM/min, and ETP was 1721 ± 411 nM·min. ETP was negatively associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.92; P < .001). Subjects in the lowest quintile of the ETP (ETPQ1) had a 1.3-fold higher mortality rate. Additionally, a high TTP/LT ratio was negatively associated with mortality (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89; P = .003). Individuals in quintile 1 of the TTP/LT ratio had a 1.4-fold higher mortality rate compared with the remainder of the cohort. Subjects that were both in ETPQ1 and TTP/LTQ1 had a 1.8-fold higher mortality rate, regardless of whether they reported history of cardiovascular disease at baseline (HR, 1.61 [CI: 1.07-2.42]) or not (HR, 1.89 [CI: 1.51-2.36]).

CONCLUSION

Low ETP and TTP/LT ratios are independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in the general population.

Breakfast quality and its sociodemographic and psychosocial correlates among Italian children, adolescents, and adults from the Italian Nutrition & HEalth Survey (INHES) study

BACKGROUND

Breakfast quality, together with regularity of breakfast, has been suggested to be associated with cardiometabolic health advantages. We aimed to evaluate the quality of breakfast and its socioeconomic and psychosocial correlates in a large sample of the Italian population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses on 7,673 adult and 505 children/adolescent regular breakfast eaters from the Italian Nutrition & Health Survey (INHES; 2010-2013). Dietary data were collected through a single 24-h dietary recall. Breakfast quality was assessed through the Breakfast Quality Index (BQI) combining intake of ten food groups, energy, and nutrients of public health concern, and potentially ranging from 0 to 10. The association of sociodemographic and psychosocial factors with BQI were analyzed by multivariable-adjusted linear regression models.

RESULTS

The average BQI was 4.65 (SD ± 1.13) and 4.97 (SD ± 1.00) in adults and children/adolescents, respectively. Amongst adults, older age (β = 0.19; 95%CI 0.06 to 0.31 for > 65 vs. 20-40 years) and having a high educational level (β = 0.13; 0.03 to 0.23; for postsecondary vs. up to elementary) were independent predictors of better breakfast quality, while men reported lower BQI (β = -0.08; -0.14 to -0.02 vs. women). Perceived stress levels at home and work and financial stress were inversely associated with BQI. Children/adolescents living in Central and Southern Italian regions had lower BQI compared to residents in Northern Italy (β = -0.55; -0.91 to -0.19 and β = -0.24; -0.47 to -0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In adults, breakfast quality was associated with age, sex, and educational level. Perceived stress levels were inversely associated with the quality of breakfast. In children/adolescents, a north-south gradient in breakfast quality was observed.

High alpha-2-macroglobulin levels are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease events: A Moli-sani cohort study

BACKGROUND

α2-macroglobulin (α2M) is a versatile endopeptidase inhibitor that plays a role in cell growth, inflammation and coagulation. α2M is an inhibitor of key coagulation enzyme thrombin. Hypercoagulability due to an excess of thrombin production can cause thrombotic events. Therefore, we investigated the association of α2M levels and cardiovascular events in a subset of the general Italian population.

METHODS

We determined α2M levels in the baseline samples of a prospective cohort (n = 19,688; age: 55 ± 12 years; 47.8 % men) of the Moli-sani study and investigated the association with the cardiovascular events (n = 432, 2.2 %) in the median follow-up period of 4.3 years. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression and adjusted for a large panel of confounding factors.

RESULTS

α2M levels above the 90th percentile were significantly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events after full adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, BMI, oral contraceptive use, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes and history of cancer (HR: 1.36; CI: 1.06-1.74). Moreover, high α2M was associated with coronary heart disease (CHD; HR: 1.47; CI: 1.12-1.91), but not stroke. Stratification for CVD at baseline showed that high α2M levels are associated with CHD events in subjects without CVD at baseline (HR: 1.40; CI: 1.00-1.95) and subjects with CVD at baseline (HR: 1.58; CI: 1.02-2.44).

CONCLUSION

We show in a prospective cohort that high levels of α2M could be a risk factor for cardiovascular events, especially coronary heart disease events.

C-reactive protein modifies lipoprotein(a)-related risk for coronary heart disease: the BiomarCaRE project

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recent investigations have suggested an interdependence of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)]-related risk for cardiovascular disease with background inflammatory burden. The aim the present analysis was to investigate whether high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) modulates the association between Lp(a) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population.

METHODS

Data from 71 678 participants from 8 European prospective population-based cohort studies were used (65 661 without/6017 with established CHD at baseline; median follow-up 9.8/13.8 years, respectively). Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted models were calculated according to accompanying hsCRP concentration (<2 and ≥2 mg/L).

RESULTS

Among CHD-free individuals, increased Lp(a) levels were associated with incident CHD irrespective of hsCRP concentration: fully adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratios [sHRs (95% confidence interval)] for the highest vs. lowest fifth of Lp(a) distribution were 1.45 (1.23-1.72) and 1.48 (1.23-1.78) for a hsCRP group of <2 and ≥2 mg/L, respectively, with no interaction found between these two biomarkers on CHD risk (Pinteraction = 0.82). In those with established CHD, similar associations were seen only among individuals with hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/L [1.34 (1.03-1.76)], whereas among participants with a hsCRP concentration <2 mg/L, there was no clear association between Lp(a) and future CHD events [1.29 (0.98-1.71)] (highest vs. lowest fifth, fully adjusted models; Pinteraction = 0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

While among CHD-free individuals Lp(a) was significantly associated with incident CHD regardless of hsCRP, in participants with CHD at baseline, Lp(a) was related to recurrent CHD events only in those with residual inflammatory risk. These findings might guide adequate selection of high-risk patients for forthcoming Lp(a)-targeting compounds.

Who are the superheroes? A cross-sectional study on the determinants of good health among Italian older adults

BACKGROUND

People who reach old age enjoying good physical and mental health can be defined as (health) "superheroes", given their relatively low impact on healthcare expenditure and the desirable model they represent.

AIM

To evaluate prevalence and possible determinants of being "physical superheroes" (i.e., free from the ten major chronic conditions, plus obesity), "mental superheroes" (i.e., free from major mental symptoms), and "superheroes" (i.e., both mental and physical superheroes).

METHODS

A telephone-based cross-sectional study (LOST in Lombardia) was conducted in November 2020 (i.e., during the COVID-19 pandemic) on a representative sample of 4,400 adults aged ≥ 65 years from Lombardy region, northern Italy. All participants provided both current data and data referring to one year before.

RESULTS

Mental and physical superheroes were 59.0% and 17.6%, respectively. Superheroes were 12.8% overall, 15.1% among men, and 11.1% among women; 20.2% among individuals aged 65-69 years, 11.3% among 70-74, 10.0% among 75-79, and 8.3% among ≥ 80 years. Multivariable analysis showed that female sex, higher age, disadvantaged socio-economic status, and physical inactivity (p for trend < 0.001) were inversely related to being superheroes. People not smoking (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.40), alcohol abstainers (aOR = 1.30), and those free from feelings of hopelessness (aOR = 5.92) more frequently met the definition of superheroes. During COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of superheroes decreased by 16.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in the older adults' health status are largely attributable to their lifestyles but are also likely due to gender, educational, and socio-economic disparities, which should be properly addressed by public health policies.

Identifying brain tumor patients' subtypes based on pre-diagnostic history and clinical characteristics: a pilot hierarchical clustering and association analysis

Introduction

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors are severe health conditions with increasing incidence in the last years. Different biological, environmental and clinical factors are thought to have an important role in their epidemiology, which however remains unclear.

Objective

The aim of this pilot study was to identify CNS tumor patients' subtypes based on this information and to test associations with tumor malignancy.

Methods

90 patients with suspected diagnosis of CNS tumor were recruited by the Neurosurgery Unit of IRCCS Neuromed. Patients underwent anamnestic and clinical assessment, to ascertain known or suspected risk factors including lifestyle, socioeconomic, clinical and psychometric characteristics. We applied a hierarchical clustering analysis to these exposures to identify potential groups of patients with a similar risk pattern and tested whether these clusters associated with brain tumor malignancy.

Results

Out of 67 patients with a confirmed CNS tumor diagnosis, we identified 28 non-malignant and 39 malignant tumor cases. These subtypes showed significant differences in terms of gender (with men more frequently presenting a diagnosis of cancer; p = 6.0 ×10-3) and yearly household income (with non-malignant tumor patients more frequently earning ≥25k Euros/year; p = 3.4×10-3). Cluster analysis revealed the presence of two clusters of patients: one (N=41) with more professionally active, educated, wealthier and healthier patients, and the other one with mostly retired and less healthy men, with a higher frequency of smokers, personal history of cardiovascular disease and cancer familiarity, a mostly sedentary lifestyle and generally lower income, education and cognitive performance. The former cluster showed a protective association with the malignancy of the disease, with a 74 (14-93) % reduction in the prevalent risk of CNS malignant tumors, compared to the other cluster (p=0.026).

Discussion

These preliminary data suggest that patients' profiling through unsupervised machine learning approaches may somehow help predicting the risk of being affected by a malignant form. If confirmed by further analyses in larger independent cohorts, these findings may be useful to create potential intelligent ranking systems for treatment priority, overcoming the lack of histopathological information and molecular diagnosis of the tumor, which are typically not available until the time of surgery.

Grandparenting during pandemic times: pros and cons for mental health

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures posed an unprecedented challenge to the crucial role of grandparenting in family-oriented cultures, such as Italy. Reduced contact with grandchildren during this period potentially threatened grandparents' mental health and well-being.

METHODS

We analysed data from the LOckdown and lifeSTyles in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020. The study included a representative sample of 4400 older adults from Lombardy, Italy, of which 1289 provided childcare to their grandchildren.

RESULTS

A decrease in self-reported grandparenting was associated with an increased likelihood of experiencing depressive symptoms among grandparents (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.01-2.24). Conversely, an increase in grandparenting was linked to poorer sleep quality (OR 11.67, 95% CI 5.88-23.17) and reduced sleep quantity (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.45-4.41).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the barriers posed by the pandemic, grandparenting played a beneficial role in maintaining the mental health and well-being of older adults. However, it is crucial to recognise specific vulnerabilities, such as gender, feelings of hopelessness and overcrowding, which can have detrimental effects during and beyond emergency situations. Careful attention to these factors is essential for developing targeted support systems and interventions aimed at safeguarding the mental health of older adults and enhancing their resilience in crises.

Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors: An analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries

AIMS

The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period.

METHODS

The study sample comprised 553818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors (sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL [high-density lipoprotein] cholesterol, systolic blood pressure [BP], and body mass index [BMI]) and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression.

RESULTS

The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the United Kingdom were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (p = 0.043 for overall difference) and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (p = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol (7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3-10%) and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%).

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk.

Systematic Violence Monitoring to Reduce Underreporting and to Better Inform Workplace Violence Prevention Among Health Care Workers: Before-and-After Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Monitoring workplace violence (WPV) against health care workers (HCWs) through incident reporting is crucial to drive prevention, but the actual implementation is spotty and experiences underreporting.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to introduce a systematic WPV surveillance in 2 public referral hospitals in Italy and assess underreporting, WPV annual rates, and attributes "before" (2016-2020) and "after" its implementation (November 2021 to 2022).

METHODS

During 2016-2020, incident reporting was based on procedures and data collection forms that were neither standardized between hospitals nor specific for aggressions. We planned and implemented a standardized WPV surveillance based on (1) an incident report form for immediate and systematic event notification, adopting international standards for violence definitions; (2) second-level root cause analysis with a dedicated psychologist, assessing violence determinants and impacts and offering psychological counseling; (3) a web-based platform for centralized data collection; and (4) periodic training for workforce coordinators and newly hired workers. We used data from incident reports to estimate underreporting, defined as an observed-to-expected (from literature and the "before" period) WPV ratio less than 1, and the 12-month WPV rates (per 100 HCWs) in the "before" and "after" periods. During the latter period, we separately estimated WPV rates for first and recurrent events.

RESULTS

In the "before" period, the yearly observed-to-expected ratios were consistently below 1 and as low as 0.27, suggesting substantial violence underreporting of up to 73%. WPV annual rates declined in 1 hospital (from 1.92 in 2016 to 0.57 in 2020) and rose in the other (from 0.52 to 1.0), with the divergence being attributable to trends in underreporting. Available data were poorly informative to identify at-risk HCW subgroups. In the "after" period, the observed-to-expected ratio rose to 1.14 compared to literature and 1.91 compared to the "before" period, consistently in both hospitals. The 12-month WPV rate was 2.08 (95% CI 1.79-2.42; 1.52 and 2.35 in the 2 hospitals); one-fifth (0.41/2.08, 19.7%) was due to recurrences. Among HCWs, the youngest group (3.79; P<.001), nurses (3.19; P<.001), and male HCWs (2.62; P=.008) reported the highest rates. Emergency departments and psychiatric wards were the 2 areas at increased risk. Physical assaults were more likely in male than female HWCs (45/67, 67.2% vs 62/130, 47.7%; P=.01), but the latter experienced more mental health consequences (46/130, 35.4% vs 13/67, 19.4%; P=.02). Overall, 40.8% (53/130) of female HWCs recognized sociocultural (eg, linguistic or cultural) barriers as contributing factors for the aggression, and 30.8% (40/130) of WPV against female HCWs involved visitors as perpetrators.

CONCLUSIONS

A systematic WPV surveillance reduced underreporting. The identification of high-risk workers and characterization of violence patterns and attributes can better inform priorities and contents of preventive policies. Our evaluation provides useful information for the large-scale implementation of standardized WPV-monitoring programs.

Diet Quality and Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection or COVID-19: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of healthy diets in the management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19. Evidence suggests the influence of diet and dietary patterns during post-COVID-19, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dietary habits and quality. However, limited evidence lies on the association between a healthy diet, and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19. This study aimed to conduct a systematic review of observational studies to examine the association between diet quality, and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 among adult populations. 6158 research articles from Scopus, EMBASE, PubMed, and MEDLINE databases were identified for eligibility. Only observational studies were included. Study quality was assessed using the National Institutes of Health Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Thirteen studies were included (4 with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 9 with COVID-19 as the outcome); 3 were case-control, 3 were cross-sectional, and 7 were prospective studies. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was examined as exposure in 7 studies, and was associated with decreased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2 studies, with estimates varying from 12% to 22%, while COVID-19 risk or severity was found to be reduced in 3 studies with odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 36% to 77%. The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet was inversely associated with COVID-19 hospitalization (OR: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.55), whereas a healthy plant-based diet had an inverse association with both COVID-19 infection (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.94) and severity (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.74). Studies examining individual food groups generally found lower risk of infection or COVID-19 in association with larger dietary intakes of fruits, vegetables, and fiber. The overall findings of the observational studies in this review support the concept that nutritious diets might lower the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19. This study was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42023397371.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Biomarkers of aging in frailty and age-associated disorders: State of the art and future perspective

According to the Geroscience concept that organismal aging and age-associated diseases share the same basic molecular mechanisms, the identification of biomarkers of age that can efficiently classify people as biologically older (or younger) than their chronological (i.e. calendar) age is becoming of paramount importance. These people will be in fact at higher (or lower) risk for many different age-associated diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, neurodegeneration, cancer, etc. In turn, patients suffering from these diseases are biologically older than healthy age-matched individuals. Many biomarkers that correlate with age have been described so far. The aim of the present review is to discuss the usefulness of some of these biomarkers (especially soluble, circulating ones) in order to identify frail patients, possibly before the appearance of clinical symptoms, as well as patients at risk for age-associated diseases. An overview of selected biomarkers will be discussed in this regard, in particular we will focus on biomarkers related to metabolic stress response, inflammation, and cell death (in particular in neurodegeneration), all phenomena connected to inflammaging (chronic, low-grade, age-associated inflammation). In the second part of the review, next-generation markers such as extracellular vesicles and their cargos, epigenetic markers and gut microbiota composition, will be discussed. Since recent progresses in omics techniques have allowed an exponential increase in the production of laboratory data also in the field of biomarkers of age, making it difficult to extract biological meaning from the huge mass of available data, Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches will be discussed as an increasingly important strategy for extracting knowledge from raw data and providing practitioners with actionable information to treat patients.

The Moli-sani risk score, a new algorithm for measuring the global impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is preventable through interventions targeting modifiable factors. Most algorithms based on modifiable CV risk factors (CV-rf) have been developed in US populations and do not account for the role of diet. We aimed to assess an algorithm based on modifiable CV-rf including diet, using data from an Italian population.

METHODS

To derive the Moli-sani Risk Score (MRS), we used data on 16,656 men and women (age ≥ 35 y) from the population of the Moli-sani Study. The Risk-and-Prevention-Study, Italy (N = 8606) acted as external validation cohort and the Life's-Simple-7 score was used as benchmark. The MRS targeted at fatal or non-fatal CV events and included 9 common modifiable CV-rf.

RESULTS

After 8.1 years (median) of follow-up, 816 events occurred in the derivation cohort. The MRS was calculated as a weighted sum of its 9 components, with weights reflecting the strength of the association. In comparison with individuals in the first, those in the fourth quartile of the score had hazard ratio (HR) for CV events equal to 3.18 (95%CI: 2.54-3.97). One more point in the score was associated with 7% (6%-8%) and 4% (3%-5%) higher hazard of events in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The MRS performed better than the Life's Simple-7 for discrimination.

CONCLUSION

We propose the Moli-sani Risk Score, a validated, performing algorithm able to measure the combined impact that modifiable CV-rf have on CV risk. The score can be used to design preventive interventions, quantify the effectiveness of interventions, and compare different preventive strategies.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.

METHODS

We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Pro-Vegetarian Food Patterns and Cancer Risk among Italians from the Moli-Sani Study Cohort

Besides the Mediterranean diet, there is a paucity of studies examining plant-based diets in relation to cancer outcomes in Mediterranean populations. We analyzed 22,081 apparently cancer-free participants (mean age 55 ± 12 year) from the Moli-sani study (enrollment period 2005-2010; Italy). A general pro-vegetarian food pattern was computed by assigning positive or negative scores to plant- or animal-derived foods, respectively from a 188-item FFQ. A priori healthful or unhealthful pro-vegetarian food patterns distinguished between healthy plant foods (e.g., fruits, vegetables) and less-healthy plant foods (e.g., fruit juices, refined grains). Cancer incidence was defined as the earliest diagnosis of cancer from hospital discharge records over a median follow-up of 12.9 years. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, a general pro-vegetarian food pattern was associated with a lower rate of cancer incidence (HR = 0.85; 95%CI 0.75-0.97 for Q5 vs. Q1); no association was observed between the healthful or unhealthful pro-vegetarian food patterns and overall cancer incidence. A healthful pro-vegetarian pattern, however, was inversely associated with digestive cancer (HR = 0.76; 95%CI 0.58-0.99 for Q5 vs. Q1), while the unhealthful pro-vegetarian pattern was directly linked to respiratory cancer (HR = 1.68; 95%CI 1.06-2.68 for Q5 vs. Q1). Our findings in a Mediterranean population support the hypothesis that some, but not all pro-vegetarian diets, might prevent some cancers.

Biomarker-based prediction of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with diabetes mellitus

AIMS

The role of biomarkers in predicting cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk individuals is not well established. We aimed to investigate benefits of adding biomarkers to cardiovascular risk assessment in individuals with and without diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used individual-level data of 95 292 individuals of the European population harmonized in the Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment across Europe consortium and investigated the prognostic ability of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI), N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Cox-regression models were used to determine adjusted hazard ratios of diabetes and log-transformed biomarkers for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Models were compared using the likelihood ratio test. Stratification by specific biomarker cut-offs was performed for crude time-to-event analysis using Kaplan-Meier plots. Overall, 6090 (6.4%) individuals had diabetes at baseline, median follow-up was 9.9 years. Adjusting for classical risk factors and biomarkers, diabetes [HR 2.11 (95% CI 1.92, 2.32)], and all biomarkers (HR per interquartile range hs-cTnI 1.08 [95% CI 1.04, 1.12]; NT-proBNP 1.44 [95% CI 1.37, 1.53]; hs-CRP 1.27 [95% CI 1.21, 1.33]) were independently associated with cardiovascular events. Specific cut-offs for each biomarker identified a high-risk group of individuals with diabetes losing a median of 15.5 years of life compared to diabetics without elevated biomarkers. Addition of biomarkers to the Cox-model significantly improved the prediction of outcomes (likelihood ratio test for nested models P < 0.001), accompanied by an increase in the c-index (increase to 0.81).

CONCLUSION

Biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with and without diabetes and facilitate the identification of individuals with diabetes at highest risk for cardiovascular events.

Risk and protective factors in Parkinson's disease: a simultaneous and prospective study with classical statistical and novel machine learning models

BACKGROUND

Several environmental/lifestyle factors have been individually investigated in previous Parkinson's disease (PD) studies with controversial results. No study has prospectively and simultaneously investigated potential risk/protective factors of PD using both classical statistical and novel machine learning analyses. The latter may reveal more complex associations and new factors that are undetected by merely linear models. To fill this gap, we simultaneously investigated potential risk/protective factors involved in PD in a large prospective population study using both approaches.

METHODS

Participants in the Moli-sani study were enrolled between 2005 and 2010 and followed up until December 2018. Incident PD cases were identified by individual-level record linkage to regional hospital discharge forms, the Italian death registry, and the regional prescription register. Exposure to potential risk/protective factors was assessed at baseline. Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) regression models and survival random forests (SRF) were built to identify the most influential factors.

RESULTS

We identified 213 incident PD cases out of 23,901 subjects. Cox PH models revealed that age, sex, dysthyroidism and diabetes were associated with an increased risk of PD. Both hyper and hypothyroidism were independently associated with PD risk. SRF showed that age was the most influential factor in PD risk, followed by coffee intake, daily physical activity, and hypertension.

CONCLUSION

This study sheds light on the role of dysthyroidism, diabetes and hypertension in PD onset, characterized to date by an uncertain relationship with PD, and also confirms the relevance of most factors (age, sex, coffee intake, daily physical activity) reportedly shown be associated with PD. Further methodological developments in SRF models will allow to untangle the nature of the potential non-linear relationships identified.

Ultraprocessed food consumption is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in participants with type 2 diabetes independent of diet quality: a prospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Nutritional strategies for prevention and management of type 2 diabetes traditionally emphasize dietary patterns reflecting nutrient goals, but the health implications of ultraprocessed food (UPF) for patients with type 2 diabetes remain unknown.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the association of UPF intake with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among participants with type 2 diabetes from the Moli-sani Study in Italy (enrollment 2005-2010).

METHODS

This was a prospective observational cohort study on 1065 individuals with type 2 diabetes at baseline, followed up for 11.6 y (median). Food intake was assessed by a 188-item food-frequency questionnaire. UPF was defined following the Nova classification and calculated as the ratio (weight ratio; %) between UPF (g/d) and total food eaten (g/d). Overall diet quality was assessed through the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality.

RESULTS

The average UPF consumption was 7.4% (±5.0%). In multivariable-adjusted Cox analyses, greater UPF intake (Q4, ≥10.5% and ≥9% of total food eaten for females and males, respectively), as opposed to the lowest (Q1, UPF <4.7% and <3.7% for females and males, respectively), was associated with higher hazards of both all-cause (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.25, 2.33) and CVD mortality (HR: 2.64; 95% CI: 1.59, 4.40); inclusion of the MDS into the model did not substantially alter the magnitude of these associations (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.25 and HR: 2.55; 95% CI: 1.53, 4.24 for all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively). A linear dose-response relationship of UPF intake with both all-cause and CVD mortality was also observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with type 2 diabetes at study entry, higher UPF consumption was associated with reduced survival and higher CVD mortality rate, independent of diet quality. Besides prioritizing the adoption of a diet based on nutritional requirements, dietary guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes should also recommend limiting UPF.

An arrhythmogenic metabolite in atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Long-chain acyl-carnitines (ACs) are potential arrhythmogenic metabolites. Their role in atrial fibrillation (AF) remains incompletely understood. Using a systems medicine approach, we assessed the contribution of C18:1AC to AF by analysing its in vitro effects on cardiac electrophysiology and metabolism, and translated our findings into the human setting.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Human iPSC-derived engineered heart tissue was exposed to C18:1AC. A biphasic effect on contractile force was observed: short exposure enhanced contractile force, but elicited spontaneous contractions and impaired Ca2+ handling. Continuous exposure provoked an impairment of contractile force. In human atrial mitochondria from AF individuals, C18:1AC inhibited respiration. In a population-based cohort as well as a cohort of patients, high C18:1AC serum concentrations were associated with the incidence and prevalence of AF.

CONCLUSION

Our data provide evidence for an arrhythmogenic potential of the metabolite C18:1AC. The metabolite interferes with mitochondrial metabolism, thereby contributing to contractile dysfunction and shows predictive potential as novel circulating biomarker for risk of AF.

Drinking alcohol in moderation is associated with lower rate of all-cause mortality in individuals with higher rather than lower educational level: findings from the MORGAM project

The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and alcohol-related diseases has been widely explored. Less is known, however, on whether the association of moderate drinking with all-cause mortality is modified by educational level (EL). Using harmonized data from 16 cohorts in the MORGAM Project (N = 142,066) the association of pattern of alcohol intake with hazard of all-cause mortality across EL (lower = primary-school; middle = secondary-school; higher = university/college degree) was assessed using multivariable Cox-regression and spline curves. A total of 16,695 deaths occurred in 11.8 years (median). In comparison with life-long abstainers, participants drinking 0.1-10 g/d of ethanol had 13% (HR = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.74-1.02), 11% (HR = 0.89; 0.84-0.95) and 5% (HR = 0.95; 0.89-1.02) lower rate of death in higher, middle and lower EL, respectively. Conversely, drinkers > 20 g/d had 1% (HR = 1.01; 0.82-1.25), 10% (HR = 1.10; 1.02-1.19) and 17% (HR = 1.17; 1.09-1.26) higher rate of death. The association of alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality was nonlinear, with a different J-shape by EL levels. It was consistent across both sexes and in various approaches of measuring alcohol consumption, including combining quantity and frequency and it was more evident when the beverage of preference was wine. We observed that drinking in moderation (≤ 10 g/d) is associated with lower mortality rate more evidently in individuals with higher EL than in people with lower EL, while heavy drinking is associated with higher mortality rate more evidently in individuals with lower EL than in people with higher EL, suggesting that advice on reducing alcohol intake should especially target individuals of low EL.

Rationale and design of the CV-PREVITAL study: an Italian multiple cohort randomised controlled trial investigating innovative digital strategies in primary cardiovascular prevention

INTRODUCTION

Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is of key importance in reducing morbidity, disability and mortality worldwide. Observational studies suggest that digital health interventions can be an effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, evidence from large randomised clinical trials is lacking.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The CV-PREVITAL study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised, controlled, open-label interventional trial designed to compare the effectiveness of an educational and motivational mobile health (mHealth) intervention versus usual care in reducing CV risk. The intervention aims at improving diet, physical activity, sleep quality, psycho-behavioural aspects, as well as promoting smoking cessation and adherence to pharmacological treatment for CV risk factors. The trial aims to enrol approximately 80 000 subjects without overt CVDs referring to general practitioners' offices, community pharmacies or clinics of Scientific Institute for Research, Hospitalization and Health Care (Italian acronym IRCCS) affiliated with the Italian Cardiology Network. All participants are evaluated at baseline and after 12 months to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on short-term endpoints, namely improvement in CV risk score and reduction of major CV risk factors. Beyond the funded life of the study, a long-term (7 years) follow-up is also planned to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on the incidence of major adverse CV events. A series of ancillary studies designed to evaluate the effect of the mHealth intervention on additional risk biomarkers are also performed.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethics approval from the ethics committee of the coordinating centre (Monzino Cardiology Center; R1256/20-CCM 1319) and from all other relevant IRBs and ethics committees. Findings are disseminated through scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals and via social media. Partners are informed about the study's course and findings through regular meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05339841.

Pre-pandemic burnout and its changes during the COVID-19 outbreak as predictors of mental health of healthcare workers: A lesson to be learned

The aim of this study was to identify how previously existing burnout and its changes during the pandemic contributed to PTSD symptoms and psychological distress in a cohort of 388 healthcare workers (HCWs). Each HCW was surveyed in Sep 2019 (before COVID-19) and again in Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (during the pandemic) to assess burnout (MBI); and in the second wave only to assess PTSD (PCL-5-SF), psychological distress (GHQ-12) and resilience (CD-RISC-10). Changes in emotional exhaustion (EE) and depersonalisation (DEP) were stronger in HCWs with lower EE and DEP baseline values. HCWs with higher baseline poor personal accomplishment (PPA) improved more than those with lower baseline values. In multivariable-adjusted models, pre-pandemic EE and its changes were equally associated to both outcomes: standardised-βs of 0.52 and 0.54 for PTSD, respectively; and 0.55 and 0.53 for psychological distress. Changes in DEP were associated with PTSD only (0.10). Changes in PPA had a higher association with psychological distress (0.29) than pre-pandemic PPA (0.13). Resilience was associated with lower psychological distress (-0.25). Preventive actions aimed at reducing EE, e.g., addressing organisational dysfunctions, are needed to mitigate the impact of future crises, whereas improving personal accomplishment levels is a key target to protect HCWs from mental health disorders during a pandemic.

Habitual adherence to a traditional Mediterranean diet and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a longitudinal analysis

Evidence on habitual Mediterranean diet (MD) and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 is limited. 1,520 participants from the Moli-sani Study (2017-2020) were tested during January-September 2021 and adherence to MD was ascertained through the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS). SARS-CoV-2 infection cases were determined through serology, and previous clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 disease was self-reported. Results were presented as odd ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The MDS was not associated with the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR= 0.94; 95% CI: 0.83-1.06) and COVID-19 (OR= 0.82; 95% CI: 0.62-1.10) diagnosis. High consumption of cereals was associated with lower odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-1.00; for each 25 g/d increase). Likelihood of having being diagnosed with COVID-19 disease decreased in association with increasing olive oil intake (OR= 0.10; 95% CI: 0.01-0.79; for each additional 10 g/d), moderate alcohol consumption (OR= 0.18; 95% CI: 0.04-0.82) and higher intakes of fruits and nuts (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79-0.99). Our findings emphasise the adoption and maintenance of a balanced MD as a key strategy to reduce the risk of future SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19.

Association between BMI, RFM and mortality and potential mediators: Prospective findings from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND

Body mass index (BMI) is the most frequently used adiposity measure, yet it is unable to differentiate fat mass from lean mass. Relative fat mass (RFM) has been proposed as an alternative. This paper aims to study RFM and BMI association with mortality in a general Italian population and potential mediators of such association.

METHODS

20,587 individuals from the Moli-sani cohort were analysed (mean age = 54 ± 11, women = 52%, median follow up = 11.2 years, interquartile range = 1.96 years). Cox regressions were used to assess BMI, RFM, and their interactive association with mortality. Dose-response relationships were computed with spline regression, mediation analysis was performed. All analyses were separated for men and women.

RESULTS

Men and women with BMI > 35 kg/m² and men in the 4th quartile of RFM showed an independent association with mortality (HR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.30-2.26 BMI in men, HR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.01-1.85 BMI in women, HR = 1.37 CI 95% = 1.11-1.68 RFM in men), that was lost once adjusted for potential mediators. Cubic splines showed a U-shaped association for BMI in men and women, and for RFM in men. Mediation analysis showed that 46.5% of the association of BMI with mortality in men was mediated by glucose, C reactive protein, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), and cystatin C; 82.9% of the association of BMI in women was mediated by HOMA index, cystatin C and FEV1; lastly, 55% of RFM association with mortality was mediated by glucose, FEV1 and cystatin C. Regression models including BMI and RFM showed that RFM drives most of the risk in men, but is not predictive in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between anthropometric measures and mortality was U shaped and it was largely dependent on sex. Associations were mediated by glucose metabolism, renal and lung function. Public health interventions should mainly focus on people with severe obesity or impaired metabolic, renal, or respiratory function.

Diabetes and heart failure associations in women and men: Results from the MORGAM consortium

Background

Diabetes and its cardiovascular complications are a growing concern worldwide. Recently, some studies have demonstrated that relative risk of heart failure (HF) is higher in women with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) than in men. This study aims to validate these findings in cohorts representing five countries across Europe.

Methods

This study includes 88,559 (51.8% women) participants, 3,281 (46.3% women) of whom had diabetes at baseline. Survival analysis was performed with the outcomes of interest being death and HF with a follow-up time of 12 years. Sub-group analysis according to sex and type of diabetes was also performed for the HF outcome.

Results

6,460 deaths were recorded, of which 567 were amongst those with diabetes. Additionally, HF was diagnosed in 2,772 individuals (446 with diabetes). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that there was an increased risk of death and HF (hazard ratio (HR) of 1.73 [1.58-1.89] and 2.12 [1.91-2.36], respectively) when comparing those with diabetes and those without. The HR for HF was 6.72 [2.75-16.41] for women with T1DM vs. 5.80 [2.72-12.37] for men with T1DM, but the interaction term for sex differences was insignificant (p for interaction 0.45). There was no significant difference in the relative risk of HF between men and women when both types of diabetes were combined (HR 2.22 [1.93-2.54] vs. 1.99 [1.67-2.38] respectively, p for interaction 0.80).

Conclusion

Diabetes is associated with increased risks of death and heart failure, and there was no difference in relative risk according to sex.

Association between the Inflammatory Potential of the Diet and Biological Aging: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 4510 Adults from the Moli-Sani Study Cohort

Chronological age (CA) may not accurately reflect the health status of an individual. Rather, biological age (BA) or hypothetical underlying "functional" age has been proposed as a relevant indicator of healthy aging. Observational studies have found that decelerated biological aging or Δage (BA-CA) is associated with a lower risk of disease and mortality. In general, CA is associated with low-grade inflammation, a condition linked to the risk of the incidence of disease and overall cause-specific mortality, and is modulated by diet. To address the hypothesis that diet-related inflammation is associated with Δage, a cross-sectional analysis of data from a sub-cohort from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010, Italy) was performed. The inflammatory potential of the diet was measured using the Energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII^TM) and a novel literature-based dietary inflammation score (DIS). A deep neural network approach based on circulating biomarkers was used to compute BA, and the resulting Δage was fit as the dependent variable. In 4510 participants (men 52.0%), the mean of CA (SD) was 55.6 y (±11.6), BA 54.8 y (±8.6), and Δage -0.77 (±7.7). In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increase in E-DII^TM and DIS scores led to an increase in Δage (β = 0.22; 95%CI 0.05, 0.38; β = 0.27; 95%CI 0.10, 0.44, respectively). We found interaction for DIS by sex and for E-DII^TM by BMI. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with accelerated biological aging, which likely leads to an increased long-term risk of inflammation-related diseases and mortality.

Association between Late-Eating Pattern and Higher Consumption of Ultra-Processed Food among Italian Adults: Findings from the INHES Study

Late eating is reportedly associated with adverse metabolic health, possibly through poor diet quality. We tested the hypothesis that meal timing could also be linked to food processing, an independent predictor of health outcomes. We analysed data on 8688 Italians (aged > 19years) from the Italian Nutrition & HEalth Survey (INHES) established in 2010-2013 throughout Italy. Dietary data were collected through a single 24 h dietary recall, and the NOVA classification was used to categorize foods according to increasing levels of processing: (1) minimally processed foods (e.g., fruits); (2) culinary ingredients (e.g., butter); (3) processed foods (e.g., canned fish); (4) ultra-processed foods (UPFs; e.g., carbonated drinks, processed meat). We then calculated the proportion (%) of each NOVA group on the total weight of food eaten (g/d) by creating a weight ratio. Subjects were classified as early or late eaters based on the population's median timing for breakfast, lunch and dinner. In multivariable-adjusted regression models, late eaters reported a lower intake of minimally processed food (β = -1.23; 95% CI -1.75 to -0.71), a higher intake of UPF (β = 0.93; 0.60 to 1.25) and reduced adherence to a Mediterranean Diet (β = -0.07; -0.12 to -0.03) as compared to early eaters. Future studies are warranted to examine whether increased UPF consumption may underpin the associations of late eating with adverse metabolic health reported in prior cohorts.

COVID-19 pandemic impact on mental health in a large representative sample of older adults from the Lombardy region, Italy

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess the prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms, hopelessness and insomnia in the older adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic identifying subgroups at higher risk of mental distress.

METHODS

Within the Lost in Lombardy project, a web-based cross-sectional study was conducted on a representative sample of 4400 older adults aged 65 years or more from the Lombardy region recruited between November 17th and 30th 2020.

RESULTS

The prevalence of depressive symptoms increased by +112 % during the pandemic, anxiety symptoms by +136 %, insufficient sleep by +12 %, unsatisfactory sleep by +15 %. Feelings of hopelessness were more frequent among women compared to men and increased with increasing age. A worsening in each of the four specific mental health outcomes was more frequently observed in women (OR = 1.50, depression; OR = 1.31, anxiety; OR = 1.57, sleep quality; OR = 1.38, sleep quantity), in subjects who decreased their physical activity during the pandemic (OR = 1.64, depression; OR = 1.48, anxiety; OR = 2.05, sleep quality; OR = 1.28, sleep quantity), and with increasing number of pre-existing chronic diseases. The use of at least one psychotropic drug - mostly antidepressants/anxiolytics - increased by +26 % compared to pre-pandemic.

LIMITATIONS

Pre-pandemic symptoms were retrospectively reported during the Covid pandemic. Potential information and recall bias should not be ruled out.

CONCLUSIONS

If confirmed by future longitudinal studies, our findings could support evidence-based health and welfare policies on responding to this pandemic and on how to promote mental health and wellbeing, should future waves of infection emerge.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Abstract P219: An Elevated Consumption of Ultra-Processed Food Modifies the Association of Body Mass Index With All-Cause Mortality: Prospective Analyses From the Moli-Sani Study

Introduction: Body mass index (BMI) has J-shaped associations with all-cause mortality, but it is unclear whether diet can modify the impact of BMI on mortality.

Hypothesis: We tested the hypothesis that a large dietary share of ultra-processed food (UPF) can act as an effect modifier of this association.

Methods: Longitudinal analysis on 22,836 women and men (mean age 55±12 y) from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010) with BMI values ≥18.5 kg/m 2 . Food intake was assessed by a 188-item FFQ. UPF was defined by the NOVA classification, and calculated as the proportion (%) of UPF in the total weight of food eaten (g/d). The Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system (FSAm-NPS) dietary index was used to evaluate participants’ diet quality. To test for a non-linear, continuous relationship of BMI with mortality, we used multivariable Cox regression analysis with BMI modelled as restricted cubic splines and used the value of 25 kg/m 2 as the reference value. Main analyses were stratified by baseline low or high UPF consumption (i.e. below or above our population sex-specific median of UPF consumption, respectively).

Results: Over a median follow-up of 12.2 y, 2,230 all-cause deaths occurred. In multivariable-adjusted models also including the FSAm-NPS dietary index and UPF, BMI had a J-shaped association with mortality (p-value<0.001; p for non-linearity<0.001); amongst lower UPF consumers, BMI values ≥33.6 kg/m 2 were associated with increased death risk, while BMI values ≤25 kg/m 2 were not ( Figure ). Higher UPF consumers experienced greater mortality risk both at higher and lower BMI values ( Figure ; p for interaction across UPF intake groups=0.016).

Conclusions: In this cohort of adult Italians, UPF consumption acts as an effect modifier of the association between BMI and mortality, regardless of the overall diet quality. These findings suggest that a body weight considered to be healthy, when associated with a large dietary share of highly processed foods, is unlikely to provide substantial long-term health advantages.

Abstract P617: Light to Moderate Alcohol Consumption is Not Associated With Breast Cancer Incidence in Italian Adult Women: Results From the Moli-Sani Study

Introduction: Epidemiologic studies suggest that heavy alcohol drinking is associated with unhealthy profile, whereas its light to moderate intake is associated with reduced hazard of total mortality as compared with lifetime abstention, a result largely driven by a reduction in cardiovascular mortality. Up to date, there is no agreement on a possible safe threshold for alcohol consumption in relation with cancer risk, especially breast cancer (BC) in women.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that the association of alcohol consumption with development of BC is mostly dependent on the average daily volume consumed.

Methods: A prospective investigation was conducted on 11,394 women (age ≥35y) from the Moli-sani study (apparently free from any cancer at baseline; 2005-2010). The alcohol volume consumed in the year before enrolment was classified as: lifetime or former or occasional drinkers and current drinkers who drank 1-12, 12.1-24, and > 24 g/d. Incident cases of BC were validated through medical and histological records. Multivariable hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for BC were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models and multiple imputation for missing data on covariates.

Results: During a median follow-up of 13.2 years, 296 BC events occurred. In comparison with lifetime abstention, intake of alcohol up to 12 g/d was not associated with BC, while consumption >12 g/d had higher hazard of BC (Table). These findings remained consistent after the exclusion of BC events occurred during the first 12 months of follow-up or stratifying by BC subtypes (Table).

Conclusions: Drinking up to one unit of alcohol (12 g) per day was not associated with either a protection or an increased BC risk in women. In contrast, drinking more than 12 g/d of alcohol had hazardous impact on BC incidence. These findings contribute to the current literature debate, suggesting that there is indeed an alcohol threshold below which alcohol drinking would not affect breast cancer risk.

Abstract P450: The Moli-Sani Risk Score, a New Algorithm for Measuring the Global Impact of Nine Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Introduction: Cardiovascular (CV) disease, the leading cause of death globally, is largely preventable through targeting modifiable risk factors. Scores of modifiable CV risk factors able to collect the combined effect of all the included components were mainly developed in US populations, or do not include nutritional aspects.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that an algorithm for measuring the global impact of nine modifiable CV risk factors, including dietary factors is useful in a Mediterranean population.

Methods: Data on 16 656 participants of the Moli-sani Study (age ≥45y, 47% men), Italy, were used. The Moli-sani Risk Score (MRS) was calculated as a weighted sum of smoking, adherence to Mediterranean diet, LDL and HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, glucose, physical activity and relative fat mass. A composite outcome of fatal or non-fatal CV events was used. The Risk-and-Prevention Study, Italy (N=8606) acted as external validation cohort and the Life's Simple 7 metric as benchmark.

Results: In the derivation cohort, 816 CV events occurred in 8.1 years (median) of follow-up. In multivariable Cox analysis adjusted for non-modifiable risk factors, 1-unit increase in the MRS was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for CV events of 1.07 (95%CI: 1.06-1.08). In comparison with individuals in the first quartile, those in the fourth quartile of the MRS had HR=3.18 (2.54-3.97, Table). In the validation cohort, individuals in the fourth quartile reported a HR=1.69 (1.39-2.05). In comparison with the Life's Simple 7 metric, the MRS performed better in the derivation cohort and similarly in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: The Moli-sani Risk Score is a validated, replicable algorithm predictive of CV events, based on nine modifiable CV risk factors, well performing in a Mediterranean population. The MRS can be useful to evaluate the efficacy of preventive strategies, to design intervention schemes and to communicate effectiveness of a preventive action, increasing compliance to the strategy itself.

Abstract P218: Quality of Plant-Based Diets is Differently Associated With Cardiovascular Mortality: A Longitudinal Analysis From the Moli-Sani Study

Introduction: Vegetarian diets are characterized by the absence of some animal foods (e.g. red and processed meats), and a high consumption of plant-based foods. However, plant-based foods can include foods with varying nutritional value and divergent health effects.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that three different pro-vegetarian (PVG) food patterns defined as general (gPVG), healthful (hPVG) and unhealthful (uPVG) are differently associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in adult Italians. Established CVD risk factors ( e.g. blood lipids, inflammatory markers) were analyzed as potential biological mechanisms underpinning these associations.

Methods: Longitudinal analysis on 22,895 women and men (mean age 55±12 y) from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010). Food intake was assessed by a 188-item food frequency questionnaire. A pro-vegetarian food pattern was constructed by assigning positive scores to plant foods and reverse scores to animal foods. Both a healthful and an unhealthful pro-vegetarian food patterns, distinguishing between healthy ( e.g . fruits, vegetables, legumes) and less-healthy plant foods ( e.g . fruit juices, potatoes, sugary beverages), were built up. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the association between dietary exposures (quarters of) and mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each quarter, considering Q1 as the reference category.

Results: After a median follow-up of 12.2 y (272,960 person/years), a total of 792 CVD deaths were ascertained. In multivariable-adjusted analyses controlled for common known risk factors, higher adherence to a gPVG was not associated with CVD mortality (HR=0.92; 0.75-1.13 for Q4 vs. Q1). Increasing adherence to a hPVG was linked to lower risk of CVD mortality (HR=0.78; 0.62-0.98 for Q4 vs. Q1), whereas a higher uPVG led to an increased risk (HR=1.28; 1.04-1.57). Altered levels of subclinical inflammation ( i.e. C-reactive protein) accounted for 13.4% (p=0.012) of the association of the hPVG with CVD mortality.

Conclusions: In this large Italian general population, increasing adherence to a general pro-vegetarian food pattern was not associated with CVD mortality. Only participants preferring healthful vegetarian foods experienced a significant protection against CVD mortality risk, possibly through a favorable modulation of the inflammatory pathway. Consistently, a large dietary share of unhealthful vegetarian foods, mostly highly processed, was associated with increased risk of CVD mortality. We conclude that it is not sufficient to adopt a general vegetarian diet, since it is the quality of the plant food consumed that is critical to achieve vegetarian diet-related benefits on CVD mortality.

Food processing and risk of central nervous system tumours: A preliminary case-control analysis from the MEditerranean DIet in relation to CancEr of brAin (MEDICEA) study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between diet and central nervous system (CNS) tumours was almost exclusively focused on food composition. We evaluated the relationship of different degrees of food processing with risk of CNS tumours.

METHODS

The study sample included 44 CNS tumours cases (20 non-malignant and 24 malignant) recruited from the Neurosurgery Department at the IRCCS Neuromed (Italy), and 88 controls matched 1:2 for sex and age± 10 years, identified from the Moli-sani Study. Dietary intake was assessed using a 188-item FFQ. Food items were grouped according to the NOVA classification on the basis of processing as: (1) unprocessed/minimally processed foods; (2) processed culinary ingredients; (3) processed foods; and (4) ultra-processed food (UPF). Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of dietary contributions from each NOVA group (as weight ratio on the total food eaten) and adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In a multivariable conditional to match logistic regression analysis also controlled for overall diet quality, 1% increment in UPF intake was associated with higher odds of all CNS tumours (OR = 1.06; 1.01-1.13), particularly of malignant CNS tumours (OR = 1.11; 1.02-1.22), while no association with non-malignant CNS tumours was found (OR = 1.06; 0.99-1.15). In contrast, only processed food was inversely associated with risk of both CNS tumours overall (OR = 0.94; 0.90-0.98) and of malignant CNS tumours (OR = 0.90; 0.83-0.96).

CONCLUSION

Increasing UPF intake was associated with higher risk of CNS tumours, especially malignant ones, independently of the overall diet quality, while only processed food (but not UPF) was inversely related to the risk of this disease.

Machine-learning prediction model for acute skin toxicity after breast radiation therapy using spectrophotometry

Purpose

Radiation-induced skin toxicity is a common and distressing side effect of breast radiation therapy (RT). We investigated the use of quantitative spectrophotometric markers as input parameters in supervised machine learning models to develop a predictive model for acute radiation toxicity.

Methods and materials

One hundred twenty-nine patients treated for adjuvant whole-breast radiotherapy were evaluated. Two spectrophotometer variables, i.e. the melanin (I_M) and erythema (I_E) indices, were used to quantitatively assess the skin physical changes. Measurements were performed at 4-time intervals: before RT, at the end of RT and 1 and 6 months after the end of RT. Together with clinical covariates, melanin and erythema indices were correlated with skin toxicity, evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) guidelines. Binary group classes were labeled according to a RTOG cut-off score of ≥ 2. The patient's dataset was randomly split into a training and testing set used for model development/validation and testing (75%/25% split). A 5-times repeated holdout cross-validation was performed. Three supervised machine learning models, including support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree analysis (CART) and logistic regression (LR), were employed for modeling and skin toxicity prediction purposes.

Results

Thirty-four (26.4%) patients presented with adverse skin effects (RTOG ≥2) at the end of treatment. The two spectrophotometric variables at the beginning of RT (I_M,T0 and I_E,T0), together with the volumes of breast (PTV2) and boost surgical cavity (PTV1), the body mass index (BMI) and the dose fractionation scheme (FRAC) were found significantly associated with the RTOG score groups (p<0.05) in univariate analysis. The diagnostic performances measured by the area-under-curve (AUC) were 0.816, 0.734, 0.714, 0.691 and 0.664 for IM, IE, PTV2, PTV1 and BMI, respectively. Classification performances reported precision, recall and F1-values greater than 0.8 for all models. The SVM classifier using the RBF kernel had the best performance, with accuracy, precision, recall and F-score equal to 89.8%, 88.7%, 98.6% and 93.3%, respectively. CART analysis classified patients with I_M,T0 ≥ 99 to be associated with RTOG ≥ 2 toxicity; subsequently, PTV1 and PTV2 played a significant role in increasing the classification rate. The CART model provided a very high diagnostic performance of AUC=0.959.

Conclusions

Spectrophotometry is an objective and reliable tool able to assess radiation induced skin tissue injury. Using a machine learning approach, we were able to predict grade RTOG ≥2 skin toxicity in patients undergoing breast RT. This approach may prove useful for treatment management aiming to improve patient quality of life.

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap.

METHODS

We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01).

CONCLUSION

hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods

AIMS

To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index.

CONCLUSION

Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Association of nutritional glycaemic indices with global DNA methylation patterns: results from the Moli-sani cohort

BACKGROUND

High dietary glycaemic index (GI) and load (GL) have been associated with increased risk of various cardiometabolic conditions. Among the molecular potential mechanisms underlying this relationship, DNA methylation has been studied, but a direct link between high GI and/or GL of diet and global DNA methylation levels has not been proved yet. We analyzed the associations between GI and GL and global DNA methylation patterns within an Italian population.

RESULTS

Genomic DNA methylation (5mC) and hydroxymethylation (5hmC) levels were measured in 1080 buffy coat samples from participants of the Moli-sani study (mean(SD) = 54.9(11.5) years; 52% women) via ELISA. A 188-item Food Frequency Questionnaire was used to assess food intake and dietary GI and GL for each participant were calculated. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the associations between dietary GI and GL and global 5mC and 5hmC levels, as well as the proportion of effect explained by metabolic and inflammatory markers. We found negative associations of GI with both 5mC (β (SE) = - 0.073 (0.027), p = 0.007) and 5hmC (- 0.084 (0.030), p = 0.006), and of GL with 5mC (- 0.14 (0.060), p = 0.014). Circulating biomarkers did not explain the above-mentioned associations. Gender interaction analyses revealed a significant association of the gender-x-GL interaction with 5mC levels, with men showing an inverse association three times as negative as in women (interaction β (SE) = - 0.16 (0.06), p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that global DNA methylation and hydroxymethylation patterns represent a biomarker of carbohydrate intake. Based on the differential association of GL with 5mC between men and women, further gender-based separate approaches are warranted.

Increased Adherence to a Mediterranean Diet Is Associated with Reduced Low-Grade Inflammation after a 12.7-Year Period: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

There is little knowledge on the association of changes over time in adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) with changes in modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and of markers of low-grade inflammation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between long-term changes in MD adherence and concurrent changes in established CVD risk factors and in markers of low-grade inflammation among adult Italians.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study was conducted. Dietary and health data were obtained both at baseline (2005-2010) and at follow-up (2017-2020). Adherence to the MD was estimated by a Mediterranean Diet Score ranging from zero to nine points, and the exposure was change in this score measured after a median 12.7-year period.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

This study included a subgroup of 897 men and 1,126 women aged ≥35 years at enrolment in the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in two composite z scores, including nine established CVD risk factors (eg, serum lipid levels and blood pressure) and four inflammatory markers (including C-reactive protein), respectively, were measured both at enrolment and after the same 12.7-year period.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models were used.

RESULTS

In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increased Mediterranean Diet Score over time was associated with decreased levels in the Inflammatory score (β = -0.372, 95% CI -0.720 to -0.025), but had little or no influence on the CVD risk score (β = -0.200, 95% CI -0.752 to 0.351), compared with individuals who had decreased their MD adherence. Among individual food groups/nutrients included in the Mediterranean Diet Score, an increased intake of monounsaturated over saturated fats over time was associated with lower CVD Risk Score, whereas increased consumption of cereals was inversely linked to the Inflammatory Score, compared with the reduced consumption group.

CONCLUSIONS

An increased adherence to a traditional MD over time was associated with reduced low-grade inflammation. These findings suggest the potential of a traditional Mediterranean eating pattern to help reduce the long-term risk of inflammation-related chronic diseases in an ageing population.

719 CIRCULATING SORTILIN LEVELS ARE INCREASED IN PATIENTS RECEIVING LONG-TERM WARFARIN AND ITS INHIBITION ATTENUATES WARFARIN-INDUCED VASCULAR CALCIFICATION

Long-term use of the vitamin K antagonist (VKA) warfarin, has been shown to accelerate vascular and valvular calcification both in rodents and in humans. Increasing evidence suggests that vascular endothelium contributes to calcification via endothelial-mesenchymal transition (EndMT). However, additional research is warranted to elucidate the signaling mechanisms involved. In the last decade, a prominent role for sortilin has been demonstrated in cardiovascular calcification. Moreover, we recently demonstrated that the increase of sortilin in the endothelium promotes endothelial dysfunction, a known initiator of EndMT.

Thus, we aim to investigate a potential contribution of sortilin in vascular calcification induced by warfarin. For this purpose, human endothelial cells and aortic rings from wild type C57BL/6J mice were cultured in promineralization medium in the presence of therapeutic levels of warfarin. Plasma sortilin and calcium levels were measured in 19 patients under VKA therapy who were stratified into short-term (3-12 months) or long-term group (24-45 months) based on VKA treatment duration.

Increased protein expression of sortilin was found both in the endothelial and in the medial smooth muscle layers of aortic rings. Sortilin immunostaining was found to co-localize with α-SMA in the endothelium of warfarin-treated aortic rings, a hallmark of EndMT. Interestingly, pharmacological inhibition of sortilin with AF38469 reduced calcification and prevented loss of expression of the endothelial marker von Willebrand Factor (vWF) induced by warfarin treatment in human endothelial cells and mouse aortas.

Finally, along with elevated plasma calcium levels, patients receiving long-term VKA showed increased circulating sortilin levels when compared to short term VKA-treated patients.

Our data provide evidence for a potential role for endothelial-derived sortilin in regulating vascular calcification promoted by warfarin, and suggest that targeting circulating sortilin may be beneficial for the prevention of warfarin-associated cardiovascular calcification.