Challenges in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality in Niger: an in-depth case study

INTRODUCTION

Recent modelled estimates suggest that Niger made progress in maternal mortality since 2000. However, neonatal mortality has not declined since 2012 and maternal mortality estimates were based on limited data. We researched the drivers of progress and challenges.

METHODS

We reviewed two decades of health policies, analysed mortality trends from United Nations data and six national household surveys between 1998 and 2021 and assessed coverage and inequalities of maternal and newborn health indicators. Quality of care was evaluated from health facility surveys in 2015 and 2019 and emergency obstetric assessments in 2011 and 2017. We determined the impact of intervention coverage on maternal and neonatal lives saved between 2000 and 2020. We interviewed 31 key informants to understand the factors underpinning policy implementation.

RESULTS

Empirical maternal mortality ratio declined from 709 to 520 per 100 000 live births during 2000-2011, while neonatal mortality rate declined from 46 to 23 per 1000 live births during 2000-2012 then increased to 43 in 2018. Inequalities in neonatal mortality were reduced across socioeconomic and demographic strata. Key maternal and newborn health indicators improved over 2000-2012, except for caesarean sections, although the overall levels were low. Interventions delivered during childbirth saved most maternal and newborn lives. Progress came from health centre expansion, emergency care and the 2006 fee exemptions policy. During the past decade, challenges included expansion of emergency care, continued high fertility, security issues, financing and health workforce. Social determinants saw minimal change.

CONCLUSIONS

Niger reduced maternal and neonatal mortality during 2000-2012, but progress has stalled. Further reductions require strategies targeting comprehensive care, referrals, quality of care, fertility reduction, social determinants and improved security nationwide.

Effective multi-sectoral approach for rapid reduction in maternal and neonatal mortality: the exceptional case of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh experienced impressive reductions in maternal and neonatal mortality over the past several decades with annual rates of decline surpassing 4% since 2000. We comprehensively assessed health system and non-health factors that drove Bangladesh's success in mortality reduction.

METHODS

We operationalised a comprehensive conceptual framework and analysed available household surveys for trends and inequalities in mortality, intervention coverage and quality of care. These include 12 household surveys totalling over 1.3 million births in the 15 years preceding the surveys. Literature and desk reviews permitted a reconstruction of policy and programme development and financing since 1990. These were supplemented with key informant interviews to understand implementation decisions and strategies.

RESULTS

Bangladesh prioritised early population policies to manage its rapidly growing population through community-based family planning programmes initiated in mid-1970s. These were followed in the 1990s and 2000s by priority to increase access to health facilities leading to rapid increases in facility delivery, intervention coverage and access to emergency obstetric care, with large contribution from private facilities. A decentralised health system organisation, from communities to the central level, openness to private for-profit sector growth, and efficient financing allocation to maternal and newborn health enabled rapid progress. Other critical levers included poverty reduction, women empowerment, rural development, and culture of data generation and use. However, recent empirical data suggest a slowing down of mortality reductions.

CONCLUSION

Bangladesh demonstrated effective multi-sectoral approach and persistent programming, testing and implementation to achieve rapid gains in maternal and neonatal mortality reduction. The slowing down of recent mortality trends suggests that the country will need to revise its strategies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. As fertility reached replacement level, further gains in maternal and neonatal mortality will require prioritising universal access to quality facility delivery, and addressing inequalities, including reaching the rural poor.

Systematic update to the mammalian relative potency estimate database and development of best estimate toxic equivalency factors for dioxin-like compounds

The World Health Organization (WHO) assesses potential health risks of dioxin-like compounds using Toxic Equivalency Factors (TEFs). This study systematically updated the relative potency (REP) database underlying the 2005 WHO TEFs and applied advanced methods for quantitative integration of study quality and dose-response. Data obtained from fifty-one publications more than doubled the size of the previous REP database (∼1300 datasets). REP quality and relevance for these data was assessed via application of a consensus-based weighting framework. Using Bayesian dose-response modeling, available data were modeled to produce standardized dose/concentration-response Hill curves. Study quality and REP data were synthesized via Bayesian meta-analysis to integrate dose/concentration-response data, author-calculated REPs and benchmark ratios. The output is a prediction of the most likely relationship between each congener and its reference as model-predicted TEF uncertainty distributions, or the 'best estimate TEF' (BE-TEF). The resulting weighted BE-TEFs were similar to the 2005 TEFs, though provide more information to inform selection of TEF values as well as to provide risk assessors and managers with information needed to quantitatively characterize uncertainty around TEF values. Collectively, these efforts produce an updated REP database and an objective, reproducible approach to support development of TEF values based on all available data.

The impact of antibiotic treatment for syphilis, chlamydia, and gonorrhoea during pregnancy on birth outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Sexually transmissible infections are important causes of loss of health and lives in women and infants worldwide. This paper presents the methods and results of a systematic review that focuses on the impact of antibiotic treatment for syphilis, chlamydia, and gonorrhoea during pregnancy on birth outcomes for the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Libraries, Global Health and Global Index Medicus for articles available until May 23rd, 2022. The search criteria focused on the impact of treatment for the three sexually transmitted infection among pregnant women. Nearly all the articles found were non-randomized studies.

Results

Treatment for pregnant women with active syphilis reduced the risk of preterm birth by 52% (95% CI = 42%-61%; 11 043 participants, 15 studies; low quality); stillbirth by 79% (95% CI = 65%-88%; 14 667 participants, eight studies; low quality); and low birth weight by 50% (95% CI = 41%-58%; 9778 participants, seven studies; moderate quality). Treatment for pregnant women with chlamydia infection reduced the risk of preterm birth by 42% (95% CI = 7%-64%; 5468 participants, seven studies; low quality) and might reduce the risk of low birth weight by 40% (95% CI = 0%-64%; 4684 participants, four studies; low quality). No studies provided data on treatment of gonorrhoea therefore no meta-analysis was conducted.

Conclusions

Because few studies adjusted for potential confounding factors, the overall quality of evidence was considered low. However, given the consistent and large effects, we recommend updating the estimated effect of timely detection and treatment for syphilis on preterm birth and stillbirth in the LiST model. More research is required to ascertain the effect of antibiotic treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea infection in pregnancy.

Evidence-based antenatal interventions to reduce the incidence of small vulnerable newborns and their associated poor outcomes

A package of care for all pregnant women within eight scheduled antenatal care contacts is recommended by WHO. Some interventions for reducing and managing the outcomes for small vulnerable newborns (SVNs) exist within the WHO package and need to be more fully implemented, but additional effective measures are needed. We summarise evidence-based antenatal and intrapartum interventions (up to and including clamping the umbilical cord) to prevent vulnerable births or improve outcomes, informed by systematic reviews. We estimate, using the Lives Saved Tool, that eight proven preventive interventions (multiple micronutrient supplementation, balanced protein and energy supplementation, low-dose aspirin, progesterone provided vaginally, education for smoking cessation, malaria prevention, treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria, and treatment of syphilis), if fully implemented in 81 low-income and middle-income countries, could prevent 5·202 million SVN births (sensitivity bounds 2·398-7·903) and 0·566 million stillbirths (0·208-0·754) per year. These interventions, along with two that can reduce the complications of preterm (<37 weeks' gestation) births (antenatal corticosteroids and delayed cord clamping), could avert 0·476 million neonatal deaths (0·181-0·676) per year. If further research substantiates the preventive effect of three additional interventions (supplementation with omega-3 fatty acids, calcium, and zinc) on SVN births, about 8·369 million SVN births (2·398-13·857) and 0·652 million neonatal deaths (0·181-0·917) could be avoided per year. Scaling up the eight proven interventions and two intrapartum interventions would cost about US$1·1 billion in 2030 and the potential interventions would cost an additional $3·0 billion. Implementation of antenatal care recommendations is urgent and should include all interventions that have proven effects on SVN babies, within the context of access to family planning services and addressing social determinants of health. Attaining high effective coverage with these interventions will be necessary to achieve global targets for the reduction of low birthweight births and neonatal mortality, and long-term benefits on growth and human capital.

Direct current cardioversion in pregnancy: a multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

Direct current cardioversion (DCCV) in pregnancy is rarely required and typically only documented in single case reports or case series. A recent UK confidential enquiry reported on several maternal deaths where appropriate DCCV appeared to have been withheld.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Seventeen UK and Ireland specialist maternity centres.

SAMPLE

Twenty-seven pregnant women requiring DCCV in pregnancy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Maternal and fetal outcomes following DCCV.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven women had a total of 29 DCCVs in pregnancy. Of these, 19 (70%) initial presentations were to Emergency Departments and eight (30%) to maternity settings. There were no maternal deaths. Seventeen of the women (63%) had a prior history of heart disease. Median gestation at DCCV was 28 weeks, median gestation at delivery was 35 weeks, with a live birth in all cases. The abnormal heart rhythms documented at the first cardioversion were atrial fibrillation in 12/27 (44%) cases, atrial flutter in 8/27 (30%), supraventricular tachycardia in 5/27 (19%) and atrial tachycardia in 2/27 (7%). Fetal monitoring was undertaken following DCCV on 14/29 (48%) occasions (10 of 19 (53%) at ≥26 weeks) and on 2/29 (7%) occasions, urgent delivery was required post DCCV.

CONCLUSIONS

Direct current cardioversion in pregnancy is rarely required but should be undertaken when clinically indicated according to standard algorithms to optimise maternal wellbeing. Once the woman is stable post DCCV, gestation-relevant fetal monitoring should be undertaken. Maternity units should develop multidisciplinary processes to ensure pregnant women receive the same standard of care as their non-pregnant counterparts.

Maternal and child nutrition in the Lives Saved Tool: Results of a recent update

Background

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a mathematical modelling tool for estimating the survival, health, and nutritional impacts of scaling intervention coverage in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Various nutrition interventions are included in LiST and are regularly (and independently) reviewed and updated as new data emerge. This manuscript describes our latest in-depth review of nutrition evidence, focusing on intervention efficacy, appropriate population-affected fractions, and new interventions for potential inclusion in the LiST model.

Methods

An external advisory group (EAG) was assembled to review evidence from systematic reviews on intervention-outcome (I-O) pairs for women and children under five years of age. GRADE quality was assigned to each pair based on a LiST-specific checklist to facilitate consistent decisions during the consideration. For existing interventions with new information, the EAG was asked to recommend whether to update the default efficacy values and population-affected fractions. For the new interventions, the EAG decided whether there was sufficient evidence of benefit, and in affirmative cases, information on the efficacy and affected fraction values that could be used. Decisions were based on expert group consensus.

Results

Overall, the group reviewed 53 nutrition-related I-O pairs, including 25 existing and 28 new ones. Efficacy and population-affected fractions were updated for seven I-O pairs; three pairs were updated for efficacy estimates only, three were updated for population-affected fractions only; and nine new I-O pairs were added to the model, bringing the total of nutrition-related I-O pairs to 34. Included in the new I-O pairs were two new nutrition interventions added to LIST: zinc fortification and neonatal vitamin A supplementation.

Conclusions

For modelling tools like LiST to be useful, it is crucial to update interventions, efficacy and population-affected fractions as new evidence becomes available. The present updates will enable LiST users to better estimate the potential health, nutrition, and survival benefits of investing in nutrition.

The role of modeling in evaluation of maternal and child health programs: using the lives saved tool to help answer core evaluation questions

This paper explains how The Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a computer-based model that estimates the impact of scaling up interventions on stillbirths, maternal, neonatal and child health, can contribute to evaluations of programs being delivered at scale to improve maternal and child health. LiST can be used to estimate the impact of a program in advance, allowing planners to refine, streamline and set appropriate program targets. LiST can also be used to estimate the impact of a program, which is particularly useful given the high costs of measuring changes in population health. Finally, LiST can be used to estimate the relative contributions of different interventions or sets of interventions within programs that are found to have a positive impact. The latest version of LiST allows users to manipulate both utilization and quality of service to generate estimates of effective coverage. In addition, a new, web-based version of LiST is now available, with a simpler and more streamlined interface designed to increase accessibility to beginning users. LiST modeling can help program planners, evaluators and funders respond to core evaluation questions related to program design and impact, providing evidence to support decisions about how best to use available resources to save the lives of women and children.

The RADAR coverage tool: developing a toolkit for rigorous household surveys for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health & nutrition indicators

Population-based intervention coverage data are used to inform the design of projects, programs, and policies and to evaluate their impact. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), household surveys are the primary source of coverage data. Many coverage surveys are implemented by organizations with limited experience or resources in population-based data collection. We developed a streamlined survey and set of supporting materials to facilitate rigorous survey design and implementation. The RADAR coverage survey tool aimed to 1) rigorously measure priority reproductive, maternal, newborn, child health & nutrition coverage indicators, and allow for equity and gender analyses; 2) use standard, valid questions, to the extent possible; 3) be as light as possible; 4) be flexible to address users’ needs; and 5) be compatible with the Lives Saved Tool for analysis of program impact. Early interactions with stakeholders also highlighted survey planning, implementation, and analysis as challenging areas. We therefore developed a suite of resources to support implementers in these areas. The toolkit was piloted by implementers in Tanzania and in Burkina Faso. Although the toolkit was successfully implemented in these settings and facilitated survey planning and implementation, we found that implementers must still have access to sufficient resources, time, and technical expertise in order to use the tool appropriately. This potentially limits the use of the tool to situations where high-quality surveys or evaluations have been prioritized and adequately resourced.

Strengthening effectiveness evaluations to improve programs for women, children and adolescents

A full understanding of the pathways from efficacious interventions to population impact requires rigorous effectiveness evaluations conducted under realistic scale-up conditions at country level. In this paper, we introduce a deductive framework that underpins effectiveness evaluations. This framework forms the theoretical and conceptual basis for the 'Real Accountability: Data Analysis for Results' (RADAR) project, intended to address gaps in guidance and tools for the evaluation of projects being implemented at scale to reduce mortality among women and children. These gaps include needs for a framework to guide decisions about evaluations and practical measurement tools, as well as increased capacity in evaluation practice among donors and program planners at global, national and project levels. RADAR aimed to improve the evidence base for program and policy decisions in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health and nutrition (RMNCH&N). We focus on five linked methodological steps - presented as core evaluation questions - for designing and implementing effectiveness evaluation of large-scale programs that support both the needs of program managers to improve their programs and the needs of donors to meet their accountability responsibilities. RADAR has operationalized each step with a tool to facilitate its application. We also describe cross-cutting methodological issues and broader contextual factors that affect the planning and implementation of such evaluations. We conclude with proposals for how the global RMNCH&N community can support rigorous program evaluations and make better use of the resulting evidence.

Estimating additional schooling and lifetime earning obtained from improved linear growth in low- and middle-income countries using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)

Background

Policymakers seeking to prioritize the use of restricted financial resources need to understand the relative costs and benefits of interventions for improving nutritional status. Improved linear growth can lead to increased education attainment and improved economic productivity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), though these non-health-related benefits are not reflected in current long-term modelling efforts, including the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Our objective was to integrate the effects of improved linear growth on non-health related benefit into LiST by estimating subsequent gains in years of schooling and wage earnings. We then estimated the impacts of reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target for stunting in South Asian countries on lifetime productivity.

Methods

In the first step, we used LiST outputs to estimate the improved linear growth due to scaled-up nutrition interventions and used published estimates to quantify the education gain resulting from an increase in height for age z-score (HAZ). In the second step, we used published country-level estimates on economic returns to schooling to quantify the relative gains in wages that children born today will experience because of their additional education attainment in the future. In the last step, we used country-level data on wages to estimate the net present value of future earnings gained due to early childhood growth improvement per birth cohort.

Results

If South Asia countries reach the SDG target by 2025, an estimated 8.6 million years of schooling will be obtained by six birth cohorts of 2020 to 2025. These six birth cohorts will also gain an estimated US$64 893 million in the present value term, at a 5% discount rate, in lifetime earnings. India has the largest expected gain in years of schooling (7367 years) and lifetime earnings (US$59 390 million in present value terms, at a 5% discount rate).

Conclusions

Two non-health-related benefits of improved linear growth – additional years of schooling and lifetime earnings – are added in LiST. Together with LiST costing, users can now conduct both cost-effective and benefit-cost analyses. Using both analyses will provide more comprehensive insights into nutrition interventions' relative costs and benefits.

Evidence of horizontal urban heat advection in London using six years of data from a citizen weather station network

Recent advances in citizen weather station (CWS) networks, with data accessible via crowd-sourcing, provide relevant climatic information to urban scientists and decision makers. In particular, CWS can provide long-term measurements of urban heat and valuable information on spatio-temporal heterogeneity related to horizontal heat advection. In this study, we make the first compilation of a quasi-climatologic dataset covering six years (2015-2020) of hourly near-surface air temperature measurements obtained via 1560 suitable CWS in a domain covering south-east England and Greater London. We investigated the spatio-temporal distribution of urban heat and the influences of local environments on climate, captured by CWS through the scope of Local Climate Zones (LCZ)-a land-use land-cover classification specifically designed for urban climate studies. We further calculate, for the first time, the amount of advected heat captured by CWS located in Greater London and the wider south east England region. We find that London is on average warmer by about 1.0 ∘C-1.5 ∘C than the rest of south-east England. Characteristics of the southern coastal climate are also captured in the analysis. We find that on average, urban heat advection (UHA) contributes to 0.22 ± 0.96 ∘C of the total urban heat in Greater London. Certain areas, mostly in the centre of London are deprived of urban heat through advection since heat is transferred more to downwind suburban areas. UHA can positively contribute to urban heat by up to 1.57 ∘C, on average and negatively by down to -1.21 ∘C. Our results also show an important degree of inter- and intra-LCZ variability in UHA, calling for more research in the future. Nevertheless, we already find that UHA can impact green areas and reduce their cooling benefit. Such outcomes show the added value of CWS when considering future urban design.

A systematic review on estimating population attributable fraction for risk factors for small-for-gestational-age births in 81 low- and middle-income countries

Background

Small for gestational age (SGA) is a public health concern since it is associated with mortality in neonatal and post-neonatal period. Despite the large magnitude of the problem, little is known about the population-attributable risk (PAR) of various risk factors for SGA. This study estimated the relative contribution of risk factors for SGA, as a basis for identifying priority areas for developing and/or implementing interventions to reduce the incidence of SGA births and related mortality and morbidity.

Methods

We conducted a literature review on 63 potential risk factors for SGA to quantify the risk relationship and estimate the prevalence of risk factors (RFs). We calculated the population-attributable fraction for each of the identified RF for 81 Countdown countries and calculated regional estimates. Twenty-five RFs were included in the final model while extended model included all the 25 RFs from the final model and two additional RFs.

Results

In the final and extended models, the RFs included in each model have a total PAF equal to 63.97% and 69.66%, respectively of SGA across the 81 LMICs. In the extended model, maternal nutritional status has the greatest PAF (28.15%), followed by environmental and other exposures during pregnancy (15.82%), pregnancy history (11.01%), and general health issues or morbidity (10.34%). The RFs included in the final and extended model for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region have a total PAF of 63.28% and 65.72% of SGA, respectively. In SSA, the top three RF categories in the extended model are nutrition (25.05%), environment and other exposure (13.01%), and general health issues or morbidity (10.72%), while in South-Asia's it was nutrition (30.56%), environment and other exposure (15.27%) and pregnancy history (11.68%).

Conclusions

The various types of RFs that play a role in SGA births highlight the importance of a multifaceted approach to tackle SGA. Depending on the types of RFs, intervention should be strategically targeted at either individual or household and/or community or policy level. There is also a need to research the mechanisms by which some of the RFs might hinder fetal growth.

Population attributable fractions for risk factors for spontaneous preterm births in 81 low- and middle-income countries: A systematic analysis

Background

Complications associated with preterm birth (PTB) are the largest contributor to under-five mortality globally. Success in reaching the Sustainable Development Goal target requires identifying potentially modifiable risk factors for PTB, estimating the relative importance of these risk factors, and identifying/implementing effective prevention strategies to address them.

Methods

We conducted a literature review to define risk relationships and estimate prevalence for established risk factors for spontaneous PTB (sPTB). We then estimated population attributable fractions (PAF) for the sPTB risk factors identified in the review as statistically significant for the 81 low- and middle-income (LMIC) countries included in the Countdown 2030 initiative. We summed country-level findings to produce PAFs for each risk factor and regional estimates for sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Results

Forty-four potential sPTB risk factors were identified. and the final analysis included twenty-four risk factors with evidence of significant associations with sPTB. A second model with three additional risk factors with borderline insignificant associations was also run. Taken together, the twenty-four risk factors had a total PAF of 73% for all 81 countries and 77% and 72% of sPTB in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, respectively. For all countries, maternal undernutrition had the highest PAF (17.5%), followed by maternal infections (16.6%), environmental exposures (16%) and pregnancy history (8.7%).

Conclusions

While multiple risk factors contribute to sPTB, no single risk factor addresses a predominant fraction, and 27% of spontaneous preterm births are not associated with risk factors that we identified. Despite the significant role of preterm birth in child survival, there are major data gaps in LMIC settings. Furthermore, there is a paucity of evidence for effective interventions to prevent preterm birth. Preventing sPTB requires understanding underlying mechanisms leading to sPTB in different populations, and the identification/implementation of effective interventions.

Updating the assumptions on the impact of household water, sanitation and hygiene interventions on diarrhea morbidity in young children

Background

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a publicly available and widely used model used to estimate the impact of scaling up interventions on maternal and child health. A strength of the model is that it is continuously updated with country-specific information about intervention coverage, risk factors and causes of death. This paper reports an updated review and meta-analysis on the efficacy of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions in reducing diarrhea morbidity among children under the age of five years.

Methods

We updated previous LiST systematic reviews for improved WASH interventions according to standard LiST criteria. We sought to identify more recent WASH studies to update LiST efficacy estimates for each WASH intervention on diarrhea morbidity. In addition, we conducted a search to identify studies that reported an effect size for combined improved WASH interventions. For interventions where we found new studies, we conducted a weighted meta-analysis to produce an updated effect size estimate.

Results

We did not find new studies demonstrating an effect of improved water source alone on diarrhea morbidity among children under 5 years of age. For improved sanitation, we conducted an updated meta-analysis among 4 studies and found no difference between intervention and control arms (weighted mean difference (WMD) = -5% (95% confidence interval (CI) = -11% to 2%). We identified four trials that assessed the effect of combined interventions targeting improved water, sanitation and hygiene. The weighted mean difference also showed no effect on diarrhea morbidity among children under 5 years of age (WMD = -6%, 95% CI = -15% to 4%). Our updated results for handwashing promotion estimate the effects to results in a 17% reduction in childhood diarrhea morbidity (95% CI = 7% to 27%).

Conclusions

Despite widespread acceptance that WASH interventions can improve diarrhea morbidity, the evidence supporting this specifically for children under 5 years of age remains weak. Children interact with the environment in ways that differ from adults and these constant exposures may limit the effect that these WASH interventions can have on diarrhea morbidity.

Global, regional, and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

BACKGROUND

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set in 2015 by the UN General Assembly, call for all countries to reach an under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) of at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths and a neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of at least as low as 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030. We estimated levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2019, and conducted scenario-based projections of the U5MR and NMR from 2020 to 2030 to assess country progress in, and potential for, reaching SDG targets on child survival and the potential under-5 and neonatal deaths over the next decade.

METHODS

Levels and trends in under-5 mortality are based on the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database on under-5 mortality, which contains around 18 000 country-year datapoints for 195 countries-nearly 10 000 of those datapoints since 1990. The database includes nationally representative mortality data from vital registration systems, sample registration systems, population censuses, and household surveys. As with previous sets of national UN IGME estimates, a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3) that considers the systematic biases associated with the different data source types was fitted to these data to generate estimates of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality with uncertainty intervals for 1990-2019 for all countries. Levels and trends in the neonatal mortality rate (0-27 days) are modelled separately as the log ratio of the neonatal mortality rate to the under-5 mortality rate using a Bayesian model. Estimated mortality rates are combined with livebirths data to calculate the number of under-5 and neonatal deaths. To assess the regional and global burden of under-5 deaths in the present decade and progress towards SDG targets, we constructed several scenario-based projections of under-5 mortality from 2020 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality trends up to 2030 for each scenario.

FINDINGS

The global U5MR decreased by 59% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 56-61) from 93·0 (91·7-94·5) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 37·7 (36·1-40·8) in 2019, while the annual number of global under-5 deaths declined from 12·5 (12·3-12·7) million in 1990 to 5·2 (5·0-5·6) million in 2019-a 58% (55-60) reduction. The global NMR decreased by 52% (90% UI 48-55) from 36·6 (35·6-37·8) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990, to 17·5 (16·6-19·0) in 2019, and the annual number of global neonatal deaths declined from 5·0 (4·9-5·2) million in 1990, to 2·4 (2·3-2·7) million in 2019, a 51% (47-54) reduction. As of 2019, 122 of 195 countries have achieved the SDG U5MR target, and 20 countries are on track to achieve the target by 2030, while 53 will need to accelerate progress to meet the target by 2030. 116 countries have reached the SDG NMR target with 16 on track, leaving 63 at risk of missing the target. If current trends continue, 48·1 million under-5 deaths are projected to occur between 2020 and 2030, almost half of them projected to occur during the neonatal period. If all countries met the SDG target on under-5 mortality, 11 million under-5 deaths could be averted between 2020 and 2030.

INTERPRETATION

As a result of effective global health initiatives, millions of child deaths have been prevented since 1990. However, the task of ending all preventable child deaths is not done and millions more deaths could be averted by meeting international targets. Geographical and economic variation demonstrate the possibility of even lower mortality rates for children under age 5 years and point to the regions and countries with highest mortality rates and in greatest need of resources and action.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Current levels of coverage of iron and folic acid fortification are insufficient to meet the recommended intake for women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries

Background

Food fortification can be an effective intervention to improve maternal and child health. Folic acid fortification can reduce neural tube defects due to folate deficiency. Iron fortification is effective to reduce maternal anemia due to iron deficiency. The paper describes the methods for estimating current coverage levels for iron fortification and folic acid fortification and estimates current impact of fortification in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

Methods

The database was obtained from Global Fortification Data Exchange. We used the following indicators from the database: food intake, fortification standard, percent of food produced in industrial mills, and percent of industrially milled food that is fortified. Together with the recommended dietary allowances for women of reproductive age (WRA), we calculated percentage of WRA getting recommended intake through fortification and used the percentage as an estimate for fortification coverage. We then used LiST to estimate the health impact of fortification on maternal and child health.

Results

Folic acid was fortified in 72 countries, with a median coverage of 43%. Iron was fortified in 87 countries, with a median coverage of 23%. Forty-six LMICs fortified either folic acid, iron, or both. And the weighted coverage of folic acid fortification and iron fortification were 34% and 19%, respectively. A greater percentage of WRA got appropriate levels of folic acid and iron via fortification in higher income countries. Based on LiST projection, it is estimated that in 2021, over 4 million anemia cases among WRA will be averted due to consumption of iron fortified food. About 1900 stillbirths and 3000 neonatal deaths due to neural tube defects will be averted due to consumption of folic acid fortified food.

Conclusions

We estimated the coverage of folic acid fortification and iron fortification in LMICs and included them in the most recent version of LiST. Trends in coverage will be included in LiST as data become available. Our analysis shows that while most LMICs have fortification programs, currently the effects of these programs are limited either through low levels of fortification in industrialized food, low consumption of fortified food or both.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

The COVID-19 crisis will exacerbate maternal and child undernutrition and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries

The economic crisis and food and health system disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic threaten to exacerbate undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We developed pessimistic, moderate and optimistic scenarios for 2020-2022 and used three modelling tools (MIRAGRODEP, the Lives Saved Tool and Optima Nutrition) to estimate the impacts of pandemic-induced disruptions on child stunting, wasting and mortality, maternal anaemia and children born to women with a low body mass index (BMI) in 118 LMICs. We estimated the cost of six nutrition interventions to mitigate excess stunting and child mortality due to the pandemic and to maximize alive and non-stunted children, and used the human capital approach to estimate future productivity losses. By 2022, COVID-19-related disruptions could result in an additional 9.3 million wasted children and 2.6 million stunted children, 168,000 additional child deaths, 2.1 million maternal anaemia cases, 2.1 million children born to women with a low BMI and US$29.7 billion in future productivity losses due to excess stunting and child mortality. An additional US$1.2 billion per year will be needed to mitigate these effects by scaling up nutrition interventions. Governments and donors must maintain nutrition as a priority, continue to support resilient systems and ensure the efficient use of new and existing resources.

Temporal changes in total and metabolically active ruminal methanogens in dairy cows supplemented with 3-nitrooxypropanol

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of 3-nitrooxypropanol (3-NOP), a potent methane inhibitor, on total and metabolically active methanogens in the rumen of dairy cows over the course of the day and over a 12-wk period. Rumen contents of 8 ruminally cannulated early-lactation dairy cows were sampled at 2, 6, and 10 h after feeding during wk 4, 8, and 12 of a randomized complete block design experiment in which 3-NOP was fed at 60 mg/kg of feed dry matter. Cows (4 fed the control and 4 fed the 3-NOP diet) were blocked based on their previous lactation milk yield or predicted milk yield. Rumen samples were extracted for microbial DNA (total) and microbial RNA (metabolically active), PCR amplified for the 16S rRNA gene of archaea, sequenced on an Illumina platform, and analyzed for archaea diversity. In addition, the 16S copy number and 3 ruminal methanogenic species were quantified using the real-time quantitative PCR assay. We detected a difference between DNA and RNA (cDNA)-based archaea communities, revealing that ruminal methanogens differ in their metabolic activities. Within DNA and cDNA components, methanogenic communities differed by sampling hour, week, and treatment. Overall, Methanobrevibacter was the dominant genus (94.3%) followed by Methanosphaera, with the latter genus having greater abundance in the cDNA component (14.5%) compared with total populations (5.5%). Methanosphaera was higher at 2 h after feeding, whereas Methanobrevibacter increased at 6 and 10 h in both groups, showing diurnal patterns among individual methanogenic lineages. Methanobrevibacter was reduced at wk 4, whereas Methanosphaera was reduced at wk 8 and 12 in cows supplemented with 3-NOP compared with control cows, suggesting differential responses among methanogens to 3-NOP. A reduction in Methanobrevibacter ruminantium in all 3-NOP samples from wk 8 was confirmed using real-time quantitative PCR. The relative abundance of individual methanogens was driven by a combination of dietary composition, dry matter intake, and hydrogen concentrations in the rumen. This study provides novel information on the effects of 3-NOP on individual methanogenic lineages, but further studies are needed to understand temporal dynamics and to validate the effects of 3-NOP on individual lineages of ruminal methanogens.

A public health approach for deciding policy on infant feeding and mother-infant contact in the context of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concern about the possibility and effects of mother–infant transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through breastfeeding and close contact. The insufficient available evidence has resulted in differing recommendations by health professional associations and national health authorities. We present an approach for deciding public health policy on infant feeding and mother–infant contact in the context of COVID-19, or for future emerging viruses, that balances the risks that are associated with viral infection against child survival, lifelong health, and development, and also maternal health. Using the Lives Saved Tool, we used available data to show how different public health approaches might affect infant mortality. Based on existing evidence, including population and survival estimates, the number of infant deaths in low-income and middle-income countries due to COVID-19 (2020–21) might range between 1800 and 2800. By contrast, if mothers with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection are recommended to separate from their newborn babies and avoid or stop breastfeeding, additional deaths among infants would range between 188 000 and 273 000.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.

METHODS

16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort.

FINDINGS

We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort.

INTERPRETATION

Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained.

FUNDING

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

COVID-19 testing in outbreak-free care homes: what are the public health benefits?

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 care home outbreaks represent a significant proportion of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in the UK. National testing initially focused on symptomatic care home residents, before extending to asymptomatic cohorts.

AIM

The aim was to describe the epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in outbreak free care homes.

METHODS

A two-point prevalence survey of COVID-19, in 34 Liverpool care homes, was performed in April and May 2020. Changes in prevalence were analysed. Associations between care home characteristics, reported infection, prevention and control interventions, and COVID-19 status were described and analysed.

FINDINGS

No resident developed COVID-19 symptoms during the study. There was no significant difference between: the number of care homes containing at least one test positive resident between the first (17.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.8-34.5) and second round (14.7%, 95% CI 5.0-31.1) of testing (p>0.99); and the number of residents testing positive between the first (2.1%, 95% CI 1.2-3.4) and second round (1.0%, 95% CI 0.5-2.1) of testing (P=0.11). Care homes providing nursing care (risk ratio (RR) 7.99, 95% CI 1.1-57.3) and employing agency staff (RR 8.4, 95% CI 1.2-60.8) were more likely to contain test positive residents. Closing residents shared space was not associated with residents testing positive (RR 2.63, 95% CI 0.4-18.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic COVID-19 care homes showed no evidence of disease transmission or development of outbreaks; suggesting that current infection prevention and control measures are effective in preventing transmission. Repeat testing at two to three weeks had limited or no public health benefits over regular daily monitoring of staff and residents for symptoms. These results should inform policies calling for regular testing of asymptomatic residents.

Multicentre study on pulmonary arterial hypertension therapies in fontan patients: underutilised or of limited use?

Introduction

The Fontan circulation is successful in abolishing cyanosis and chronic volume overload in congenital heart disease (CHD) patients with single ventricle physiology. “Fontan failure” is a major cause of poor quality of life and mortality in these patients. Recently, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) therapies have been used in Fontan patients with variable success, even though patients included in these studies are generally at the best end of the spectrum.

Aim

To assess contemporary patterns of PAH therapy in Fontan patients in large specialist CHD centres.

Methods

We identified all adult patients with a Fontan-type circulation under active follow-up in 8 specialist CHD centres between 2009 and 2019. Patients on PAH therapies were matched by age and gender to untreated patients (1:1 or 1:2). Baseline data were collated immediately prior to initiation of therapy (treated group) or from a synchronous routine clinical assessment (untreated group).

Results

During the study period, 70 Fontan patients were started on PAH therapy (6.5% of those under follow-up). The majority 63 (90.0%) were started on monotherapy with a phosphodiesterase-5 (PDE5) inhibitor, 6 (8.6%) patients were started on an endothelin receptor antagonist (ERA) and 1 (1.4%) received early sequential therapy with a PDE5 inhibitor and ERA. Prostacyclin analogues were not used, and no patients received triple therapy. Overall, 51 (72.9%) patients started therapy electively (49% in outpatient clinic, 51% as day case admission), while 18 (25.7%) were treated following urgent hospital admission with fluid overload +/− acute kidney injury. The remainder (2,2.9%) started therapy following cardiac surgery. Adverse events during treatment were rare. Patients starting PAH therapy were matched to 112 untreated patients (table 1). Patients were well matched between groups for age (p=0.52) and sex (p=0.27). Treated patients were more likely to be significantly impaired than matched patients (56.7% vs. 8.6% in NYHA class III/IV, p&lt;0.0001) and were more likely to have ascites (16.2% vs. 0.9%, p=0.0002). Treated patients were also more likely to have a lower albumin level (43 [14–56] vs. 45 [29–54], p=0.01) or to be on a loop diuretic e.g. furosemide (p&lt;0.0001), at a higher daily dose (p&lt;0.0001) than matched patients. Only a quarter of patients on therapies had no high-risk features (24.2%), 80% of whom were from a single centre.

Conclusion

A small minority of Fontan patients followed in specialist centres receive PAH therapies. PAH therapy was reserved in most centres for patients with more advanced disease, targeting predominantly those with a “failing Fontan” in an individualised approach, in line with the recent adult CHD American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines. Further studied are needed to establish the role of PAH therapies in Fontan patients, provided that adult patients with advanced disease who are at increased risk of adverse outcome are included.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Dr Constantine received an educational grant from Actelion Pharmaceuticals, a Janssen company of Johnson & Johnson, which helped to pay for travel for data collection.

The single-use rhinolaryngoscope: an evaluation and cost comparison

BACKGROUND

This study investigated whether the single-use rhinolaryngoscope is clinically and economically comparable to the conventional reusable rhinolaryngoscope within a tertiary otolaryngology centre in the UK.

METHODS

A non-blinded, prospective and single-arm evaluation was carried out over a 5-day period, in which micro-costing was used to compare single-use rhinolaryngoscopes with reusable rhinolaryngoscopes.

RESULTS

Overall, 68 per cent of the investigators perceived the single-use rhinolaryngoscope to be 'good' or 'very good', while 85 per cent believed the single-use rhinolaryngoscope could replace the reusable rhinolaryngoscope (n = 59). The incremental costs of reusable rhinolaryngoscope eyepieces and videoscopes in the out-patient clinic, when compared to single-use rhinolaryngoscopes, were £30 and £11, respectively. The incremental costs of reusable rhinolaryngoscope eyepieces and videoscopes in the acute surgical assessment unit, when compared to single-use rhinolaryngoscopes, were -£4 and -£73, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The single-use rhinolaryngoscope provides a clinically comparable, and potentially cost-minimising, alternative to the reusable rhinolaryngoscope for use in the acute surgical assessment unit of our hospital.

A-09 The Relationship Between Subjective Cognitive Complaints, Depression, and Executive Functioning in mTBI Veterans

Objective

Among individuals with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), those with depression report greater subjective cognitive complaints than those without depression. In mTBI patients with general cognitive complaints, depression may account for poor performance on objective neuropsychological measures. This study seeks to expand this research by examining depression, subjective executive functioning (EF) complaints, and objective EF performance in Veterans with mTBI.

Method

Fifty-seven Veterans with deployment-related mTBI (12% female; age M = 42.0, SD = 13.6; years education M = 15.0, SD = 1.8) with (n = 29) or without (n = 28) a chart diagnosis of depression. Participants were administered the Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning (BRIEF) and objective neuropsychological measures of working memory (i.e., Weschler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV Working Memory Index) and aspects of EF (i.e., Trail Making Test B and Delis-Kaplan Executive Functioning System (D-KEFS) subtests).

Results

Principal component analysis identified similar domains of EF to the BRIEF, including: task monitoring (Trail Making Test B, D-KEFS Letter Fluency, and D-KEFS Tower Test, eigenvalue = 1.93) and shifting (D-KEFS: Color-Word Interference Conditions 3 and 4, and Category Switching, eigenvalue = 1.24). Individuals with depression had greater subjective EF complaints in each BRIEF domain than non-depressed individuals (p’s ≤ .01). However, subjective complaints in these domains were not related to objective performance (r’s = −0.17,-0.19, p’s &gt; .05). Moreover, depressed and non-depressed individuals performed similarly on all EF measures (p’s &gt; .05).

Conclusions

mTBI Veterans with depression report more subjective EF complaints than those without depression. The lack of association between subjective complaints and objective EF performance suggests it is important to treat depression in mTBI patients to remedy perceived cognitive deficits.

Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food.

METHODS

We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8-51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10-50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months.

FINDINGS

Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8-18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3-51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8-44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3-38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18-23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

Factors associated with the decline in under five diarrhea mortality in Tanzania from 1980-2015

Background

Tanzania has made great progress in reducing diarrhea mortality in under- five children. We examined factors associated with the decline and projected the impact of scaling up interventions or reducing risk factors on diarrhea deaths.

Methods

We reviewed economic, health, and diarrhea-related policies, reports and programs implemented during 1980 to 2015. We used the Lives Saved Tool to determine the percentage reduction in diarrhea-specific mortality attributable to changes in coverage of the interventions and risk factors, including direct diarrhea-related interventions, nutrition, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). We projected the number of diarrhea deaths that could be prevented in 2030, assuming near universal coverage of different intervention packages.

Results

Diarrhea-specific mortality among under-five children in Tanzania declined by 89% from 35.3 deaths per 1000 live births in 1980 to 3.9 deaths per 1000 live births in 2015. Factors associated with diarrhea-specific under-five mortality reduction included oral rehydration solution (ORS) use, changes in stunting prevalence, vitamin A supplementation, rotavirus vaccine, change in wasting prevalence and change in age-appropriate breastfeeding practices. Universal coverage of direct diarrhea, nutrition and WASH interventions has the potential reduce the diarrhea-specific mortality rate by 90%.

Conclusions

Scaling up of a few key childhood interventions such as ORS and nutrition, and reducing the prevalence of stunting would address the remaining diarrhea-specific under-five mortality by 2030.

Drivers of the reduction in childhood diarrhea mortality 1980-2015 and interventions to eliminate preventable diarrhea deaths by 2030

BACKGROUND

Childhood diarrhea deaths have declined more than 80% from 1980 to 2015, in spite of an increase in the number of children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Possible drivers of this remarkable accomplishment can guide the further reduction of the half million annual child deaths from diarrhea that still occur.

METHODS

We used the Lives Saved Tool, which models effects on mortality due to changes in coverage of preventive or therapeutic interventions or risk factors, for 50 LMIC to determine the proximal drivers of the diarrhea mortality reduction.

RESULTS

Diarrhea treatment (oral rehydration solution [ORS], zinc, antibiotics for dysentery and management of persistent diarrhea) and use of rotavirus vaccine accounted for 49.7% of the diarrhea mortality reduction from 1980 to 2015. Improvements in nutrition (stunting, wasting, breastfeeding practices, vitamin A) accounted for 38.8% and improvements in water, sanitation and handwashing for 11.5%. The contribution of ORS was greater from 1980 to 2000 (58.0% of the reduction) than from 2000 to 2015 (30.7%); coverage of ORS increased from zero in 1980 to 29.5% in 2000 and more slowly to 44.1% by 2015. To eliminate the remaining childhood diarrhea deaths globally, all these interventions will be needed. Scaling up diarrhea treatment and rotavirus vaccine, to 90% coverage could reduce global child diarrhea mortality by 74.1% from 2015 levels by 2030. Adding improved nutrition could increase that to 89.1%. Finally, adding increased use of improved water sources, sanitation and handwashing could result in a 92.8% reduction from the 2015 level.

CONCLUSIONS

Employing the interventions that have resulted in such a large reduction in diarrhea mortality in the last 35 years can virtually eliminate remaining childhood diarrhea deaths by 2030.

Drivers of the progress achieved by Peru in reducing childhood diarrhoea mortality: a country case study

BACKGROUND

Childhood diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially in Peru in recent decades. We documented trends in childhood diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015, along with trends in coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions and risk factors, to identify the main drivers of mortality reduction.

METHODS

We conducted desk reviews on social determinants, policies and programmes, and diarrhoea-related interventions implemented during the study period. We reviewed different datasets on child mortality, and on coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions. We received input from individuals familiar with implementation of diarrhoea-related policies and programmes. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to help explain the reasons for the decline in diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015 and to predict additional reduction with further scale up of diarrhoea-related interventions by 2030.

RESULTS

In Peru under-five diarrhoea mortality declined from 23.3 in 1980 to 0.8 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. The percentage of under-five diarrhoea deaths as related to total under-five deaths was reduced from 17.8% in 1980 to 4.9% in 2015. Gross domestic product increased and poverty declined from 1990 to 2015. Access to improved water increased from 56% in 1986 to 79.3% in 2015. Oral rehydrating salts (ORS) use during an episode of diarrhoea increased from 3.6% in 1986 to 32% in 2015. Vertical programmes focused on diarrhoea management with ORS were implemented successfully in the 1980s and 1990s, and were replaced by integrated crosscutting interventions since the early 2000s. LiST analyses showed that about half (53.9%) of the reduction in diarrhoea mortality could be attributed to improved water, sanitation and hygiene, 25.0% to direct diarrhoea interventions and 21.1% to nutrition. The remaining mortality could be reduced by three-quarters by 2030 with improved diarrhoea treatment and further with enhanced breastfeeding practices and reduction in stunting. LiST does not take into account the role of social determinants.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction of diarrhoeal under-five mortality in Peru can be explained by a combination of factors, including improvement of social determinants, child nutrition, diarrhoea treatment with ORS and prevention with rotavirus vaccine and increased access to water and sanitation. The already low rate of diarrhoea mortality could be further reduced by a number of interventions, especially additional use of ORS and zinc for diarrhoea treatment. Peru is a remarkable example of a country that was able to reduce childhood diarrhoea mortality by implementing interventions through vertical programmes initially, and afterwards through implementation of integrated multisectoral packages targeting prevalent illnesses and multi-causal problems like stunting.

Factors associated with the decline in under-five diarrhea mortality in India: a LiST analysis

BACKGROUND

India has achieved 86% reduction in the number of under-five diarrheal deaths from 1980 to 2015. Nonetheless diarrhea is still among the leading causes of under-five deaths. The aim of this analysis was to study the contribution of factors that led to decline in diarrheal deaths in the country and the effect of scaling up of intervention packages to address the remaining diarrheal deaths.

METHODS

We assessed the attribution of different factors and intervention packages such as direct diarrhea case management interventions, nutritional factors and WASH interventions which contributed to diarrhea specific under-five mortality reduction (DSMR) during 1980 to 2015 using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). The potential impact of scaling up different packages of interventions to achieve universal coverage levels by year 2030 on reducing the number of remaining diarrheal deaths were estimated.

RESULTS

The major factors associated with DSMR reduction in under-fives during 1980 to 2015, were increase in ORS use, reduction in stunting prevalence, improved sanitation, changes in age appropriate breastfeeding practices, increase in the vitamin-A supplementation and persistent diarrhea treatment. ORS use and reduction in stunting were the two key interventions, each accounting for around 32% of the lives saved during this period. Scaling up the direct diarrhea case management interventions from the current coverage levels in 2015 to achieve universal coverage levels by 2030 can save around 82 000 additional lives. If the universal targets for nutritional factors and WASH interventions can be achieved, an additional 23 675 lives can potentially be saved.

CONCLUSIONS

While it is crucial to improve the coverage and equity in ORS use, an integrated approach to promote nutrition, WASH and direct diarrhea interventions is likely to yield the highest impact on reducing the remaining diarrheal deaths in under-five children.

Bangladesh: a success case in combating childhood diarrhoea

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh had a large reduction in childhood deaths due to diarrhoeal disease in recent decades. This paper explores the preventive, promotive, curative and contextual drivers that helped Bangladesh achieve this exemplary success.

METHODS

Primary and secondary data collection approaches were used to document trends in reduction of Diarrhoea Specific Mortality Rate (DSMR) between 1980 and 2015, understand what policies and programmes played key roles, and estimate the contribution of specific interventions that were implemented during the period. Data acquisition involved relevant document reviews and in-depth interviews with key stake-holders. A systematic search of literature was undertaken to explore socio-economic, aetiological, behavioural, and nutritional drivers of diarrhoeal disease reduction in Bangladesh. Finally, we used LiST (Lives Saved Tool) to model the contributions of the relevant interventions during three time periods (1980-2015, 1980-2000 and 2000-2015), and to project the number of lives saved in 2030 (compared to 2015) if these interventions were implemented at near universal coverage (90%).

RESULTS

The factors which likely had the most impact on DSMR were the coordinated efforts of the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) with non-government organizations (NGOs) and the private sector that enabled swift implementation, at scale, of interventions like oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, promotion of breastfeeding, handwashing and sanitary latrines (WASH), as well as improvements in female education and nutrition. Compared to 1980, we found ORS and reduction in stunting prevalence had the greatest impact on DSMR, saving roughly 70 000 lives combined in 2015. Until 2000, ORS had a higher contribution to DSMR reduction than reduction in stunting prevalence. This proportionate contribution was reversed during 2000-2015. At near universal coverage (90%) of combined direct diarrhoeal disease, nutrition and WASH interventions, we project that an additional 5356 deaths due to diarrhoea could be averted in 2030.

CONCLUSION

Bangladesh's achievement in reduction of DSMR highlights the important role of an enabling policy environment that fostered coordinated efforts of the public and private sectors and NGOs for maximal impact. To maintain this momentum, evidence-based interventions should be scaled up at universal coverage.

C-24 Longitudinal Trajectories of Working Memory Performance in Typically Aging Older Adults

Objective

Cross-sectional studies have shown age-related differences in working memory (WM), but the trajectory is unclear due to the scarcity of longitudinal studies. Additional research is needed to better characterize the course of age-related changes in WM in older adults. The present study sought to address this gap in the literature by conducting serial assessments of WM in a longitudinally followed cohort of typically aging adults. We hypothesized a significant age × time interaction, such that WM would show pronounced declines with advancing age.

Methods

640 functionally intact participants in an aging cohort (clinical dementia rating = 0; age range 52-99, mean age = 75) completed a computerized WM measure, Running Letter Memory (RLM), every ~15 months for up to 8.5 years (mean follow-up = 1.9 years). Longitudinal changes in RLM scores were analyzed using linear mixed effects models, allowing for random slopes and intercepts. All models were adjusted for sex and education.

Results

RLM performance did not significantly decline over time (b = -.14, p = .43). As hypothesized, there was a significant age × time interaction predicting RLM scores (b = -.08, p = .006). Specifically, RLM performance remained relatively stable (or slightly improved) until around age 75, beyond which increasingly precipitous declines were observed with advancing age.

Conclusion

The present results suggest that WM performance does not evidence declines until the mid-70s in typically aging adults, at which point increasingly steep decline trajectories are observed with advancing age. These findings highlight that cognitive aging does not occur at a constant rate in late life.

Validity of self-reported receipt of iron supplements during pregnancy: implications for coverage measurement

Background

Iron-deficiency anemia during pregnancy is an underlying cause of maternal deaths, and reducing risk through routine iron supplementation is a key component of antenatal care (ANC) programs in most low- and middle income countries. Supplementation coverage during pregnancy is estimated from maternal self-reports in population-based household surveys, yet recall bias and social desirability bias lead to errors of unknown magnitude.

Methods

We linked data from household and health facility surveys from 16 countries to estimate input-adjusted coverage of iron supplementation during pregnancy. We assessed the validity of reported receipt of iron supplements in client exit interviews using direct observation as the gold standard across 9 countries with a recent Service Provision Assessment (SPA). Using a sample of 227 women who participated in the Nepal Oil Massage Study (NOMS), we also assessed the validity of self-reported receipt of iron folic acid (IFA) supplements. We used Poisson regression models to explore the association between client and health facility characteristics and agreement of self-reported receipt of iron supplements compared to direct observation.

Results

Across the 16 countries, iron supplements were in supply at most of the 9215 sampled health facilities offering ANC services (91%). We estimated that between 48 and 93% of women attended at least one ANC visit at a health facility with iron supplements available. The specificity of recall of receipt of iron supplementation immediately following a visit was 79.3% and the sensitivity was 88.7% for the entire sample. Individual-level accuracy was high (Area under the curve > 0.7) and population bias low (0.75 < inflation factor < 1.25) across all countries. By contrast, in the NOMS sub-study, the accuracy of self-reported receipt of IFA supplements after 1–2 years was poor (sensitivity 86.1%, specificity 34.3%). Adjusted regression analyses indicated that older age and higher level of education were associated with poorer agreement between self-reports and direct observation.

Conclusions

These findings suggest the need for caution when using self-reported measures with an extended recall period. Further validation studies using conditions similar to widely used population-based household surveys are warranted.

Maternal and fetal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by the inherited aortopathy Loeys-Dietz syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Pregnancies in women with Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) are rare and are typically documented in case reports only. Early reports suggested high rates of maternal complications during pregnancy and the puerperium, including aortic dissection and uterine rupture, but information on fetal outcomes was very limited.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Eight specialist UK centres.

SAMPLE

Pregnant women with LDS.

METHODS

Data was collated on cardiac, obstetric, and neonatal outcomes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Maternal and perinatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by LDS.

RESULTS

Twenty pregnancies in 13 women with LDS were identified. There was one miscarriage, one termination of pregnancy, and 18 livebirths. In eight women the diagnosis was known prior to pregnancy but only one woman had preconception counselling. In four women the diagnosis was made during pregnancy through positive genotyping, and the other was diagnosed following delivery. Five women had a family history of aortic dissection. There were no aortic dissections in our cohort during pregnancy or postpartum. Obstetric complications were common, including postpartum haemorrhage (33%) and preterm delivery (50%). In all, 14/18 (78%) of deliveries were by elective caesarean section, at a median gestational age at delivery of 37 weeks. Over half the infants (56%) were admitted to the neonatal unit following delivery.

CONCLUSION

Women with LDS require multidisciplinary specialist management throughout pregnancy. Women should be referred for preconception counselling to make informed decisions around pregnancy risk and outcomes. Early elective preterm delivery needs to be balanced against a high infant admission rate to the neonatal unit.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Pregnancy outcomes in women with Loeys-Dietz syndrome.

Pushing the envelope through the Global Financing Facility: potential impact of mobilising additional support to scale-up life-saving interventions for women, children and adolescents in 50 high-burden countries

Introduction

The Global Financing Facility (GFF) was launched to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through scaled and sustainable financing for Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Nutrition (RMNCAH-N) outcomes. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of increased resources available to improve RMNCAH-N outcomes, from expanding and scaling up GFF support in 50 high-burden countries.

Methods

The potential impact of GFF was estimated for the period 2017–2030. First, two scenarios were constructed to reflect conservative and ambitious assumptions around resources that could be mobilised by the GFF model, based on GFF Trust Fund resources of US$2.6  billion. Next, GFF impact was estimated by scaling up coverage of prioritised RMNCAH-N interventions under these resource scenarios. Resource availability was projected using an Excel-based model and health impacts and costs were estimated using the Lives Saved Tool (V.5.69 b9).

Results

We estimate that the GFF partnership could collectively mobilise US$50–75  billion of additional funds for expanding delivery of life-saving health and nutrition interventions to reach coverage of at least 70% for most interventions by 2030. This could avert 34.7  million deaths—including preventable deaths of mothers, newborns, children and stillbirths—compared with flatlined coverage, or 12.4  million deaths compared with continuation of historic trends. Under-five and neonatal mortality rates are estimated to decrease by 35% and 34%, respectively, and stillbirths by 33%.

Conclusion

The GFF partnership through country- contextualised prioritisation and innovative financing could go a long way in increasing spending on RMNCAH-N and closing the existing resource gap. Although not all countries will reach the SDGs by relying on gains from the GFF platform alone, the GFF provides countries with an opportunity to significantly improve RMNCAH-N outcomes through achievable, well-directed changes in resource allocation.

Linking household and health facility surveys to assess obstetric service availability, readiness and coverage: evidence from 17 low- and middle-income countries

Background

Improving access and quality of obstetric service has the potential to avert preventable maternal, neonatal and stillborn deaths, yet little is known about the quality of care received. This study sought to assess obstetric service availability, readiness and coverage within and between 17 low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

We linked health facility data from the Service Provision Assessments and Service Availability and Readiness Assessments, with corresponding household survey data obtained from the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. Based on performance of obstetric signal functions, we defined four levels of facility emergency obstetric care (EmOC) functionality: comprehensive (CEmOC), basic (BEmOC), BEmOC-2, and low/substandard. Facility readiness was evaluated based on the direct observation of 23 essential items; facilities “ready to provide obstetric services” had ≥20 of 23 items available. Across countries, we used medians to characterize service availability and readiness, overall and by urban-rural location; analyses also adjusted for care-seeking patterns to estimate population-level coverage of obstetric services.

Results

Of the 111 500 health facilities surveyed, 7545 offered obstetric services and were included in the analysis. The median percentages of facilities offering EmOC and “ready to provide obstetric services” were 19% and 10%, respectively. There were considerable urban-rural differences, with absolute differences of 19% and 29% in the availability of facilities offering EmOC and “ready to provide obstetric services”, respectively. Adjusting for care-seeking patterns, results from the linking approach indicated that among women delivering in a facility, a median of 40% delivered in facilities offering EmOC, and 28% delivered in facilities “ready to provide obstetric services”. Relatively higher coverage of facility deliveries (≥65%) and coverage of deliveries in facilities “ready to provide obstetric services” (≥30% of facility deliveries) were only found in three countries.

Conclusions

The low levels of availability, readiness and coverage of obstetric services documented represent substantial missed opportunities within health systems. Global and national efforts need to prioritize upgrading EmOC functionality and improving readiness to deliver obstetric service, particularly in rural areas. The approach of linking health facility and household surveys described here could facilitate the tracking of progress towards quality obstetric care.

Gaps in the implementation of antenatal syphilis detection and treatment in health facilities across sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Syphilis in pregnancy is an under-recognized public health problem, especially in sub-Saharan Africa which accounts for over 60% of the global burden of syphilis. If left untreated, more than half of maternal syphilis cases will result in adverse pregnancy outcomes including stillbirth and fetal loss, neonatal death, prematurity or low birth weight, and neonatal infections. Achieving universal coverage of antenatal syphilis screening and treatment has been the focus of the global campaign for the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of syphilis. However, little is known about the availability of antenatal syphilis screening and treatment across sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to estimate the 'likelihood of appropriate care' for antenatal syphilis screening and treatment by analyzing health facility surveys and household surveys conducted from 2010 to 2015 in 12 sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

In this secondary data analysis, we linked indicators of health facility readiness to provide antenatal syphilis detection and treatment from Service Provision Assessments (SPAs) and Service Availability and Readiness Assessments (SARAs) to indicators of ANC use from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to compute estimates of the 'likelihood of appropriate care'.

RESULTS

Based on data from 5,593 health facilities that reported offering antenatal care (ANC) services, the availability of syphilis detection and treatment in ANC facilities ranged from 2% to 83%. The availability of syphilis detection and treatment was substantially lower in ANC facilities in West Africa compared to the other sub-regions. Levels of ANC attendance were high (median 94.9%), but only 27% of ANC attendees initiated care at less than 4 months gestation. We estimated that about one in twelve pregnant women received ANC early (<4 months) at a facility ready to provide syphilis detection and treatment (median 8%, range 7-32%). The largest implementation bottleneck identified was low health facility readiness, followed by timeliness of the first ANC visit.

CONCLUSIONS

While access was fairly high, the low levels of likelihood of antenatal syphilis detection and treatment identified reinforce the need to improve the availability of syphilis rapid diagnostic tests and treatment and the timeliness of antenatal care-seeking across sub-Saharan Africa.

Expanding the population coverage of evidence-based interventions with community health workers to save the lives of mothers and children: an analysis of potential global impact using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)

Background

Evidence has been accumulating that community health workers (CHWs) providing evidence–based interventions as part of community–based primary health care (CBPHC) can lead to reductions in maternal, neonatal and child mortality. However, investments to strengthen and scale–up CHW programs still remain modest.

Methods

We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the number of maternal, neonatal and child deaths and stillbirths that could be prevented if 73 countries effectively scaled up the population coverage of 30 evidence–based interventions that CHWs can deliver in these high–burden countries. We set population coverage targets at 50%, 70%, and 90% and summed the country–level results by region and by all 73 high–burden countries combined. We also estimated which specific interventions would save the most lives.

Findings

LiST estimates that a total of 3.0 (sensitivity bounds 1.8–4.0), 4.9 (3.1–6.3) and 6.9 (3.7–8.7) million deaths would be prevented between 2016 and 2020 if CBPHC is gradually scaled up during this period and if coverage of key interventions reaches 50%, 70%, and 90% respectively. There would be 14%, 23%, and 32% fewer deaths in the final year compared to a scenario assuming no intervention coverage scale up. The Africa Region would receive the most benefit by far: 58% of the lives saved at 90% coverage would be in this region. The interventions contributing the greatest impact are nutritional interventions during pregnancy, treatment of malaria with artemisinin compounds, oral rehydration solution for childhood diarrhea, hand washing with soap, and oral antibiotics for pneumonia.

Conclusions

Scaling up CHW programming to increase population–level coverage of life–saving interventions represents a very promising strategy to achieve universal health coverage and end preventable maternal and child deaths by 2030. Numerous practical challenges must be overcome, but there is no better alternative at present. Expanding the coverage of key interventions for maternal nutrition and treatment of childhood illnesses, in particular, may produce the greatest gains. Recognizing the millions of lives of mothers and their young offspring that could be achieved by expanding coverage of evidence–based interventions provided by CHWs and strengthening the CBPHC systems that support them underscores the pressing need for commitment from governments and donors over the next 15 years to prioritize funding, so that robust CHW platforms can be refined, strengthened, and expanded.

Quality of antenatal care service provision in health facilities across sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from nationally representative health facility assessments

Background

Utilization of antenatal care (ANC) services has increased over the past two decades. Continued gains in maternal and newborn health will require an understanding of both access and quality of ANC services. We linked health facility and household survey data to examine the quality of service provision for five ANC interventions across health facilities in sub–Saharan Africa.

Methods

Using data from 20 nationally representative health facility assessments – the Service Provision Assessment (SPA) and the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA), we estimated facility level readiness to deliver five ANC interventions: tetanus toxoid vaccine for pregnant women, intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnancy (IPTp), syphilis detection and treatment in pregnancy, iron supplementation and hypertensive disease case management. Facility level indicators were stratified by health facility type, managing authority and location, then linked to estimates of ANC utilization in that stratum from the corresponding Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to generate population level estimates of the ‘likelihood of appropriate care’. Finally, the association between estimates of the ‘likelihood of appropriate care’ from the linking approach and estimates of coverage levels from the DHS were assessed.

Findings

A total of 10 534 health facilities were surveyed in the 20 health facility assessments, of which 8742 reported offering ANC services and were included in the analysis. Health facility readiness to deliver IPTp, iron supplementation, and tetanus toxoid vaccination was higher (median: 84.1%, 84.9% and 82.8% respectively) than readiness to deliver hypertensive disease case management and syphilis detection and treatment (median: 23.0% and 19.9% respectively). Coverage of at least 4 ANC visits ranged from 24.8% to 75.8%. Estimates of the likelihood of appropriate care derived from linking health facility and household survey data showed marked gaps for all interventions, particularly hypertensive disease case management and syphilis detection and treatment. There was fairly good concordance between our estimates of high likelihood of appropriate care and DHS estimates of coverage for iron supplementation, IPTp, and tetanus toxoid vaccination.

Conclusion

Linking household surveys to health facility assessments revealed marked gaps in population–level coverage of quality ANC interventions and underscored the need for a double–pronged approach to increase ANC utilization and improve the quality of ANC services.

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.

Effects of deworming on child and maternal health: a literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminth infections are widespread. Many studies have been published on the topic of deworming. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a software package that uses a deterministic mathematical model to estimate the effect of scaling up interventions on maternal and child health outcomes. This review investigates the scope of available evidence for benefits of deworming treatments in order to inform a decision about possible inclusion of deworming as an intervention in LiST.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar. We included studies that reported pre/post data in children younger than 5 years or pregnant women for outcomes related to mortality and growth. We excluded studies that compared different anthelminthic treatments but did not include a placebo or non-treatment group, and those that did not report post-intervention outcomes. We categorized articles by treated population (children younger than 5 years and pregnant women), experimental versus observational, mass drug administration (MDA) versus treatment, and reported outcome.

RESULTS

We identified 58 relevant trials; 27 investigated children younger than 5 years and 11 investigated pregnant women; one reported on both children younger than 5 years and pregnant women. We conducted meta-analyses of relevant outcomes in children younger than 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Deworming did not show consistent benefits for indicators of mortality, anemia, or growth in children younger than five or women of reproductive age. We do not recommend including the effect of deworming in the LiST model.