Clinical Outcomes in Older Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulants (OAC) are underutilized in older patients with atrial fibrillation, despite proven clinical benefits. Our objective was to investigate baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and impact of anticoagulation upon clinical outcomes with respect to age.

METHODS

Adults with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation were recruited into the prospective observational registry, GARFIELD-AF, and followed up for 24 months. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were obtained via Cox proportional-hazards models with applied weights, to quantify the association of age with clinical outcomes. Comparative effectiveness of OAC vs No OAC and non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOAC) vs vitamin K antagonists (VKA) were assessed using a propensity score with an overlap weighting scheme.

RESULTS

Of 52,018 patients, 32.6% were 65-74 years of age, 29.3% were 75-84 years, and 7.9% were ≥85 years. OAC treatment was associated with a numerical reduction in all-cause mortality among those aged 65-74 years (HR; 95% confidence interval) (0.86; 0.69-1.06) and aged 75-84 years (0.89; 0.75-1.05) and a significant reduction in patients ≥85 years (0.77; 0.63-0.95) vs no OAC. Similarly, OACs were associated with a decrease in stroke: 65-74 (0.51; 0.35-0.76) and ≥85 years (0.58; 0.34-0.99) and a numerical decrease in 75-84 years (0.84; 0.59-1.18). No increase in major bleeding was observed in patients aged ≥85 treated with OACs. Compared with VKA, NOACs were associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality in patients aged <65 and 65-74, with numerical reductions in those aged 75-84 and ≥85 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients using OACs saw lower all-cause mortality and stroke risk; NOACs had less mortality and major bleeding compared with VKAs.

Country and health expenditure are major predictors of withholding anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation patients at high risk of stroke

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) at high thromboembolic risk recommend oral anticoagulants (OACs) for preventing stroke and systemic embolism (SE). The reasons for guideline non-adherence are still unclear.

AIM

The aim is to identify clinical, demographic and non-patient characteristics associated with withholding OAC in patients with AF at high stroke risk.

METHODS

Patients in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF, newly diagnosed with AF between March 2010 and August 2016, and with CHA2DS2-VASc Score≥2 (excluding sex), were grouped by OAC treatment at enrolment. Factors associated with OAC non-use were analysed by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 40 416 eligible patients, 12 126 (30.0%) did not receive OACs at baseline. Globally, OAC prescription increased over time, from 60.4% in 2010-2011 to 74.7% in 2015-2016. Country of enrolment was the major predictor for OAC withholding (χ2-df=2576). Clinical predictors of OAC non-use included type of AF (χ2-df=404), history of bleeding (χ2-df=263) and vascular disease (χ2-df=99). OACs were used most frequently around the age of 75 years and decreasingly with younger as well as older age beyond 75 years (χ2-df=148). Non-cardiologists (χ2-df=201) and emergency room physicians (χ2-df=14) were less likely to prescribe OACs. OAC prescription correlated positively with country health expenditure.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one out of three AF patients did not receive OAC, while eligible according to the guidelines. Country of enrolment was the major determinant of anticoagulation strategy, while higher country health expenditure was associated with lower likelihood of withholding anticoagulation.

Outcomes of Oral Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation Patients With or Without Comorbid Vascular Disease: Insights From the GARFIELD-AF Registry

BACKGROUND

Many patients with atrial fibrillation suffer from comorbid vascular disease. The comparative efficacy and safety of different types of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in this patient group have not been widely studied.

METHODS

Adults with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation were recruited into the prospective observational registry, GARFIELD-AF, and followed for 24 months. Associations of vascular disease with clinical outcomes were analyzed using adjusted hazard ratios (HR) obtained via Cox proportional-hazard modeling. Outcomes of OAC vs no OAC, and of non-vitamin K antagonist OAC (NOAC) vs vitamin K antagonist (VKA) treatment, were compared by overlap propensity-weighted Cox proportional-hazard models.

RESULTS

Of 51,574 atrial fibrillation patients, 25.9% had vascular disease. Among eligible atrial fibrillation patients, those with vascular disease received OAC less frequently than those without (63% vs 73%). Over 2-year follow-up, patients with vascular disease showed a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.47) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.59; 95% CI, 1.28-1.97). OAC was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause mortality and non-hemorrhagic stroke, and increased risk of major bleeding in non-vascular disease. In vascular disease, similar but non-significant trends existed for stroke and major bleeding. A significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.90) and major bleeding (HR 0.45; 95% CI, 0.29-0.70) was observed in vascular disease patients treated with NOACs, compared with VKAs.

CONCLUSIONS

Atrial fibrillation patients with a history of vascular disease have worse long-term outcomes than those without. The association of NOACs vs VKA with clinical outcomes was more evident in atrial fibrillation patients with vascular disease.

Rhythm versus rate control in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation - Observations from the GARFIELD-AF registry

Background

Investigate real-world outcomes of early rhythm versus rate control in patients with recent onset atrial fibrillation.

Methods

The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF (GARFIELD-AF) is an international multi-centre, non-interventional prospective registry of newly diagnosed (≤6 weeks' duration) atrial fibrillation patients at risk for stroke. Patients were stratified according to treatment initiated at baseline (≤48 days post enrolment), and outcome risks evaluated by overlap propensity weighted Cox proportional-hazards models.

Results

Of 45,382 non-permanent atrial fibrillation patients, 23,858 (52.6 %) received rhythm control and 21,524 (47.4 %) rate control. Rhythm-controlled patients had lower median age (68.0 [Q1;Q3: 60.0;76.0] versus 73.0 [65.0;79.0]), fewer histories of stroke/transient ischemic attack/systemic embolism (9.4 % versus 13.0 %), and lower expected probabilities of death (median GARFIELD-AF death score 4.0 [2.3;7.5] versus 5.1 [2.8;9.2]). The two groups had the same median CHA2DS2-VASc scores (3.0 [2.0;4.0]) and similar proportions of anticoagulated patients (rhythm control: 66.0 %, rate control: 65.5 %). The propensity-score-weighted hazard ratios of rhythm vs rate control (reference) were 0.85 (95 % CI: 0.79-0.92, p-value < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality, 0.84 (0.72-0.97, p-value 0.020) for non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.90 (0.78-1.04, p-value 0.164) for major bleeding.

Conclusion

Rhythm control strategy was initiated in about half of the patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular non-permanent atrial fibrillation. After balancing confounders, significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke were observed in patients who received early rhythm control.

Predictors of intracranial hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries

BACKGROUND

An unmet need exists to reliably predict the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs).

HYPOTHESIS

An externally validated model improves ICH risk stratification.

METHODS

Independent factors associated with ICH were identified by Cox proportional hazard modeling, using pooled data from the GARFIELD-AF (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation) and ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registries. A predictive model was developed and validated by bootstrap sampling and by independent data from the Danish National Patient Register.

RESULTS

In the combined training data set, 284 of 53 878 anticoagulated patients had ICH over a 2-year period (0.31 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28-0.35). Independent predictors of ICH included: older age, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, concomitant antiplatelet (AP) use, and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD). Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) were associated with a significantly higher risk of ICH compared with non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.25-2.08; p = .0002). The ability of the model to discriminate individuals in the training set with and without ICH was fair (optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.65-0.71) and outperformed three previously published methods. Calibration between predicted and observed ICH probabilities was good in both training and validation data sets.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, prior ischemic events, concomitant AP therapy, and CKD were important risk factors for ICH in anticoagulated AF patients. Moreover, ICH was more frequent in patients receiving VKA compared to NOAC. The new validated model is a step toward mitigating this potentially lethal complication.

Oral anticoagulation across diabetic subtypes in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: A report from the GARFIELD-AF registry

AIMS

This study aims to describe both management and prognosis of patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), overall as well as by antidiabetic treatment, and to assess the influence of oral anticoagulation (OAC) on outcomes by DM status.

METHODS

The study population comprised 52 010 newly diagnosed patients with AF, 11 542 DM and 40 468 non-DM, enrolled in the GARFIELD-AF registry. Follow-up was truncated at 2 years after enrolment. Comparative effectiveness of OAC versus no OAC was assessed by DM status using a propensity score overlap weighting scheme and weights were applied to Cox models.

RESULTS

Patients with DM [39.3% oral antidiabetic drug (OAD), 13.4% insulin ± OAD, 47.2% on no antidiabetic drug] had higher risk profile, OAC use, and rates of clinical outcomes compared with patients without DM. OAC use was associated in patients without DM and patients with DM with lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio 0.75 (0.69-0.83), 0.74 (0.64-0.86), respectively] and stroke/systemic embolism (SE) [0.69 (0.58-0.83), 0.70 (0.53-0.93), respectively]. The risk of major bleeding with OAC was similarly increased in patients without DM and those with DM [1.40 (1.14-1.71), 1.37 (0.99-1.89), respectively]. Patients with insulin-requiring DM had a higher risk of all-cause mortality and stroke/SE [1.91 (1.63-2.24)], [1.57 (1.06-2.35), respectively] compared with patients without DM, and experienced significant risk reductions of all-cause mortality and stroke/SE with OAC [0.73 (0.53-0.99); 0.50 (0.26-0.97), respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

In both patients with DM and patients without DM with AF, OAC was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and stroke/SE. Patients with insulin-requiring DM derived significant benefit from OAC.

Enoxaparin for symptomatic COVID-19 managed in the ambulatory setting: An individual patient level analysis of the OVID and ETHIC trials

BACKGROUND

Antithrombotic treatment may improve the disease course in non-critically ill, symptomatic COVID-19 outpatients.

METHODS

We performed an individual patient-level analysis of the OVID and ETHIC randomized controlled trials, which compared enoxaparin thromboprophylaxis for either 14 (OVID) or 21 days (ETHIC) vs. no thromboprophylaxis for outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one additional risk factor. The primary efficacy outcome included all-cause hospitalization and all-cause death within 30 days from randomization. Both studies were prematurely stopped for futility. Secondary efficacy outcomes were major symptomatic venous thromboembolic events, arterial cardiovascular events, or their composite occurring within 30 days from randomization. The same outcomes were assessed over a 90-day follow-up. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (ISTH criteria).

RESULTS

A total of 691 patients were randomized: 339 to receive enoxaparin and 352 to the control group. Over 30-day follow-up, the primary efficacy outcome occurred in 6.0 % of patients in the enoxaparin group vs. 5.8 % of controls for a risk ratio (RR) of 1.05 (95%CI 0.57-1.92). The incidence of major symptomatic venous thromboembolic events and arterial cardiovascular events was 0.9 % vs. 1.8 %, respectively (RR 0.52; 95%CI 0.13-2.06). Most cardiovascular thromboembolic events were represented by symptomatic venous thromboembolic events, occurring in 0.6 % vs. 1.5 % of patients, respectively. A similar distribution of outcomes between the treatment groups was observed over 90 days. No major bleeding occurred in the enoxaparin group vs. one (0.3 %) in the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence for the clinical benefit of early administration of enoxaparin thromboprophylaxis in outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19. These results should be interpreted taking into consideration the relatively low occurrence of events.

Development and Validation of the DOAC Score: A Novel Bleeding Risk Prediction Tool for Patients With Atrial Fibrillation on Direct-Acting Oral Anticoagulants

BACKGROUND

Current clinical decision tools for assessing bleeding risk in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) have limited performance and were developed for individuals treated with warfarin. This study develops and validates a clinical risk score to personalize estimates of bleeding risk for individuals with atrial fibrillation taking direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs).

METHODS

Among individuals taking dabigatran 150 mg twice per day from 44 countries and 951 centers in this secondary analysis of the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy), a risk score was developed to determine the comparative risk for bleeding on the basis of covariates derived in a Cox proportional hazards model. The risk prediction model was internally validated with bootstrapping. The model was then further developed in the GARFIELD-AF registry (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field-Atrial Fibrillation), with individuals taking dabigatran, edoxaban, rivaroxaban, and apixaban. To determine generalizability in external cohorts and among individuals on different DOACs, the risk prediction model was validated in the COMBINE-AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation) pooled clinical trial cohort and the Quebec Régie de l'Assurance Maladie du Québec and Med-Echo Administrative Databases (RAMQ) administrative database. The primary outcome was major bleeding. The risk score, termed the DOAC Score, was compared with the HAS-BLED score.

RESULTS

Of the 5684 patients in RE-LY, 386 (6.8%) experienced a major bleeding event, within a median follow-up of 1.74 years. The prediction model had an optimism-corrected C statistic of 0.73 after internal validation with bootstrapping and was well-calibrated based on visual inspection of calibration plots (goodness-of-fit P=0.57). The DOAC Score assigned points for age, creatinine clearance/glomerular filtration rate, underweight status, stroke/transient ischemic attack/embolism history, diabetes, hypertension, antiplatelet use, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory use, liver disease, and bleeding history, with each additional point scored associated with a 48.7% (95% CI, 38.9%-59.3%; P<0.001) increase in major bleeding in RE-LY. The score had superior performance to the HAS-BLED score in RE-LY (C statistic, 0.73 versus 0.60; P for difference <0.001) and among 12 296 individuals in GARFIELD-AF (C statistic, 0.71 versus 0.66; P for difference = 0.025). The DOAC Score had stronger predictive performance than the HAS-BLED score in both validation cohorts, including 25 586 individuals in COMBINE-AF (C statistic, 0.67 versus 0.63; P for difference <0.001) and 11 945 individuals in RAMQ (C statistic, 0.65 versus 0.58; P for difference <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In individuals with atrial fibrillation potentially eligible for DOAC therapy, the DOAC Score can help stratify patients on the basis of expected bleeding risk.

GARFIELD-AF: risk profiles, treatment patterns and 2-year outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation in Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) compared to 32 countries in other regions worldwide

BACKGROUND

The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is a worldwide non-interventional study of stroke prevention in patients with non-valvular AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

52,080 patients with newly diagnosed AF were prospectively enrolled from 2010 to 2016. 4121 (7.9%) of these patients were recruited in DACH [Germany (n = 3567), Austria (n = 465) and Switzerland (n = 89) combined], and 47,959 patients were from 32 countries in other regions worldwide (ORW). Hypertension was most prevalent in DACH and ORW (85.3% and 75.6%, respectively). Diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, carotid occlusive disease and vascular disease were more prevalent in DACH patients vs ORW (27.6%, 49.4%, 5.8% and 29.0% vs 21.7%, 40.9%, 2.8% and 24.5%). The use of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) increased more in DACH over time. Management of vitamin K antagonists was suboptimal in DACH and ORW (time in therapeutic range of INR ≥ 65% in 44.6% and 44.4% of patients or ≥ 70% in 36.9% and 36.0% of patients, respectively). Adjusted rates of cardiovascular mortality and MI/ACS were higher in DACH while non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism was lower after 2-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Similarities and dissimilarities in AF management and clinical outcomes are seen in DACH and ORW. The increased use of NOAC was associated with a mismatch of risk-adapted anticoagulation (over-and-undertreatment) in DACH. Suboptimal control of INR requires educational activities in both regional groups. Higher rates of cardiovascular death in DACH may reflect the higher risk profile of these patients and lower rates of non-haemorrhagic stroke could be associated with increased NOAC use.

Determinants and clinical outcomes of patients who refused anticoagulation: findings from the global GARFIELD-AF registry

OBJECTIVE

There is a substantial incidence of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) not receiving anticoagulation. The reasons for not receiving anticoagulation are generally attributed to clinician's choice, however, a proportion of AF patients refuse anticoagulation. The aim of our study was to investigate factors associated with patient refusal of anticoagulation and the clinical outcomes in these patients.

METHODS

Our study population comprised patients in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD-AF) registry with CHA2DS2-VASc≥2. A logistic regression was developed with predictors of patient anticoagulation refusal identified by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator methodology. Patient demographics, medical and cardiovascular history, lifestyle factors, vital signs (body mass index, pulse, systolic and diastolic blood pressure), type of AF and care setting at diagnosis were considered as potential predictors. We also investigated 2-year outcomes of non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), major bleeding and all-cause mortality in patients who refused versus patients who received and patients who did not receive anticoagulation for other reasons.

RESULTS

Out of 43 154 AF patients, who were at high risk of stroke, 13 283 (30.8%) did not receive anticoagulation at baseline. The reason for not receiving anticoagulation was unavailable for 38.7% (5146/13 283); of the patients with a known reason for not receiving anticoagulation, 12.5% (1014/8137) refused anticoagulation. Diagnosis in primary care/general practitioner, Asian ethnicity and presence of vascular disease were strongly associated with a higher risk of patient refusal of anticoagulation. Patient refusal of anticoagulation was associated with a higher risk of non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.16 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.76)) but lower all-cause mortality (aHR 0.59 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.80)) compared with patients who received anticoagulation. The GARFIELD-AF mortality score corroborated this result.

CONCLUSION

The data suggest patient refusal of anticoagulation is a missed opportunity to prevent AF-related stroke. Further research is required to understand the patient profile and mortality outcome of patients who refuse anticoagulation.

Guideline-directed medical therapies for comorbidities among patients with atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF

Aims

This study aimed to identify relationships in recently diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with respect to anticoagulation status, use of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for comorbid cardiovascular conditions (co-GDMT), and clinical outcomes. The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD)-AF is a prospective, international registry of patients with recently diagnosed non-valvular AF at risk of stroke (NCT01090362).

Methods and results

Guideline-directed medical therapy was defined according to the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. This study explored co-GDMT use in patients enrolled in GARFIELD-AF (March 2013-August 2016) with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 2 (excluding sex) and ≥1 of five comorbidities-coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, hypertension, and peripheral vascular disease (n = 23 165). Association between co-GDMT and outcome events was evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models, with stratification by all possible combinations of the five comorbidities. Most patients (73.8%) received oral anticoagulants (OACs) as recommended; 15.0% received no recommended co-GDMT, 40.4% received some, and 44.5% received all co-GDMT. At 2 years, comprehensive co-GDMT was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.89 (0.81-0.99)] and non-cardiovascular mortality [HR 0.85 (0.73-0.99)] compared with inadequate/no GDMT, but cardiovascular mortality was not significantly reduced. Treatment with OACs was beneficial for all-cause mortality and non-cardiovascular mortality, irrespective of co-GDMT use; only in patients receiving all co-GDMT was OAC associated with a lower risk of non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism.

Conclusion

In this large prospective, international registry on AF, comprehensive co-GDMT was associated with a lower risk of mortality in patients with AF and CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 2 (excluding sex); OAC therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality and non-cardiovascular mortality, irrespective of co-GDMT use.

Clinical Trial Registration

Clinical Trial Registration-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362.

Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score

AIMS

Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding.

CONCLUSION

The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.

Rhythm versus rate control in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: observations from the GARFIELD-AF registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Real-world reports on the effect of early rhythm control on patient outcomes in patient with recent onset atrial fibrillation are limited.

Purpose

To assess the effect of early rhythm versus rate control on clinical outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

Method

The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF (GARFIELD-AF) is a non-interventional registry of adult (≥18 years) patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (≤ six weeks' duration) and at least one investigator determined risk factor for stroke. Patients were enrolled in 1317 participating sites in 35 countries between March 2010 and August 2016. Patients with permanent atrial fibrillation were excluded. Stratification to rhythm or rate control was based on treatment strategy initiated at baseline (≤48 days post enrolment). Rhythm control was defined as investigator reported initiation of rhythm control (antiarrhythmic drug(s), cardioversion, or ablation – alone or in combination with rate modifiers). Rate control was defined as investigator reported initiation of rate control and absence of rhythm control therapy. Overlap propensity weighting and Cox proportional-hazards models were used to evaluate effect on outcomes.

Results

Of 45,382 included patients, 23,858 (52.6%) received rhythm control and 21,524 (47.4%) rate control. Rates of rhythm control were similar throughout the study time period (52.7% in 2010/2011, 54.2% in 2015/2016). Patients in the rhythm control group were younger (median age (Q1; Q3) 68.0 (60.0; 76.0) versus 73.0 (65.0; 79.0)), had lower rates of prior stroke/transitory ischemic attack/systemic embolism (9.4% vs 13.0%), and a lower median GARFIELD death score (4.0 (2.3; 7.5) versus 5.1 (2.8; 9.2)). Median CHA2DS2-VASc Scores were 3.0 (2.0; 4.0) in both groups. Rate of anticoagulation treatment was similar in the rhythm and rate control group (66.0% versus 65.5%). After propensity score overlap weighting, patients of the two groups were well balanced on all observed characteristics.

Event rates per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]) over two years follow-up in the rhythm and rate control group were 2.94 (2.78–3.10) versus 4.43 (4.22–4.64) for mortality, 0.84 (0.75–0.92) versus 1.16 (1.05–1.27) for non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.84 (0.76–0.93) versus 1.16 (1.06–1.27) for major bleeding. Adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for the same time period were 0.85 (0.79–0.92), 0.84 (0.72–0.97) and 0.9 (0.78–1.04).

Conclusion

In this large, internation registry, a rhythm control strategy was initiated at baseline in about half of the patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation. After adjustment for confounding factors, a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism were observed for patients that received an early rhythm control strategy.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by the Thrombosis Research Institute (London, UK).

Stroke and bleed related deaths in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation patients: insights from the GARFIELD-AF registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a significant increase in stroke risk. Anticoagulation (AC) guidelines recommend stratification of stroke risk to aid AC choice. However, despite evidence supporting AC, the associated bleeding risk often leads to underdosing or omission of AC. Transition from stratification of stroke and bleeding risk to stratification of mortality associated with stroke and bleeding may overcome this therapeutic inertia.

Purpose

To quantify the risk of stroke- and bleed-related mortality in newly diagnosed AF patients according to different AC strategies.

Methods

GARFIELD-AF is the largest multinational, prospective AF registry worldwide. Stroke- and bleed-related deaths were defined as a death occurring within 30 days after each event. Predictors of stroke- and bleed-related deaths were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and were selected from a comprehensive list of demographic, clinical and lifestyle factors. Expected probabilities of stroke- and bleed-related death by AC strategy were extracted from the developed Cox proportional-hazards models.

Results

Among the 52,018 GARFIELD-AF patients, 195 stroke-related deaths and 172 bleed-related deaths occurred. Patients who suffered stroke- or bleed-related deaths were older (median [Q1; Q3]: 78.0 [72.0; 84.0] and 77.0 [70.5; 83.0]) than those who did not (71.0 [63.0; 78.0]) and had a higher prevalence of comorbidities including heart failure, vascular disease, and prior stroke.

Patients who suffered a stroke-related death less frequently received vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) and non-vitamin K Antagonist Oral anticoagulants (NOACs) compared to those who were alive at two years or died of a non-stroke-related death. In contrast, patients who suffered a bleed-related death more often received VKAs compared to those who did not. NOACs and AP monotherapy treatment were less common in patients who had bleed-related death (Figure 1).

Predictors for stroke-related death included age, ethnicity, heart failure, prior stroke, AC treatment, pulse, and dementia. Bleed-related mortality predictors were age, ethnicity, chronic kidney disease, AC treatment, vascular disease, and smoking status. VKAs and NOACs were associated with a lower risk of stroke-related death, reducing 2-year risk from 0.73% without AC to 0.41% and 0.36%, respectively. In contrast, bleed-related deaths increased with VKA treatment, but not with NOACs (Figure 2). The overall net benefit versus no AC treatment was greater with NOACs than VKAs.

Conclusion

Among AF patients at high stroke risk, NOACs and VKAs were associated with a reduced risk of stroke-related death compared to no AC, but the risk of bleed-related death was higher with VKA. This suggests that a new approach to risk stratification based on the net mortality benefits of NOAC use in newly diagnosed AF patients at high risk of stroke should be considered.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by the Thrombosis Research Institute (London, UK)

Differential efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation patients with or without comorbid vascular disease: insights from the GARFIELD-AF registry

Background

Many patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have comorbid vascular disease. The effects of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in AF patients with vascular disease, however, have not been widely studied.

Purpose

To investigate the impact of OAC in AF patients with (Vasc) or without (nVasc) concomitant vascular disease.

Methods

GARFIELD-AF is the largest multinational, prospective AF registry. The study comprised 51,574 GARFIELD-AF patients with newly diagnosed AF, 13,365 Vasc and 38,209 nVasc patients. All patients who reported coronary artery disease, aortic or peripheral artery disease, acute coronary syndromes, myocardial infarction, stenting, or coronary artery bypass graft were classified as having vascular disease. Adjusted hazard ratios were obtained via Cox proportional-hazards models to quantify the association of vascular disease with selected endpoints. Comparative effectiveness analyses were restricted to patients enrolled from April 2013-September 2016 (when NOACs became widely available) and who were eligible for anticoagulation (CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 excl. gender). To evaluate the safety and efficacy of different anticoagulation strategies in Vasc and nVasc patients, propensity score using an overlap weighting scheme was applied. Weights were applied to Cox proportional-hazards models to estimate the effects of OAC vs No OAC and NOAC vs VKA.

Results

Vasc patients were older (median (Q1; Q3): 72.0 (65.0; 79.0) vs 70.0 (62.0; 78.0) and more often male (62.0 vs 53.6%). Vasc patients had a higher rate of comorbidities including heart failure, hypertension, and diabetes. Vasc patients received less OAC (62.8 vs 68.3%). NOACs were less common compared with nVasc patients (23.8% vs 28.7%) but a similar proportion of VKAs was observed in both (39.0% vs 39.6%). Antiplatelet monotherapy was more common in Vasc (31%) than nVasc (18%) patients.

At 2-years, Vasc was associated with a higher risk of all-cause (HR [95% CI]: 1.30 [1.16–1.47]) and cardiovascular mortality (1.59 [1.28–1.97]). OACs significantly lowered the risk of all-cause mortality and stroke in nVasc patients (0.72 [0.63–0.82] and 0.64 [0.49–0.84], respectively), but not in nVasc patients. OACs led to a numerical increase in major bleeding in Vasc patients (1.32 [0.90–1.93]) and a significant increase in major bleeding in nVasc patients (1.40 [1.03–1.90]) (Figure 1). Compared with VKAs, NOACs did not significantly improve the risk of outcomes in nVasc patients. In Vasc patients however, NOACs significantly lowered the risk of all-cause mortality (0.74 [0.61–0.90]) and major bleeding (0.45 [0.29–0.70]) compared with VKAs (Figure 2).

Conclusion

AF patients with vascular disease have worse long-term outcomes than those without. They receive less often OAC, specifically NOAC, and more antiplatelet agents. The beneficial effects of NOAC over VKA are much more pronounced in patients with than in those without vascular disease.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by the Thrombosis Research Institute (London, UK).

Thromboprophylactic low-molecular-weight heparin versus standard of care in unvaccinated, at-risk outpatients with COVID-19 (ETHIC): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3b trial

Background

COVID-19 is associated with inflammation and an increased risk of thromboembolic complications. Prophylactic doses of low-molecular-weight heparin have been used in hospitalised and non-critically ill patients with COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of prophylactic low-molecular-weight heparin (enoxaparin) versus standard of care (no enoxaparin) in at-risk outpatients with COVID-19.

Methods

This open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3b trial (ETHIC) was done at 15 centres in six countries (Belgium, Brazil, India, South Africa, Spain, and the UK). We consecutively enrolled participants aged at least 30 years who had not received a COVID-19 vaccine and had symptomatic, confirmed COVID-19 in the outpatient setting plus at least one risk factor for severe disease. Within 9 days of symptom onset and by use of a web-based random block design (block size either 2 or 4), eligible participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either subcutaneous enoxaparin for 21 days (40 mg once daily if they weighed <100 kg and 40 mg twice daily if they weighed ≥100 kg) or standard of care (without enoxaparin). The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of all-cause hospitalisation and all-cause mortality at 21 days after randomisation and, in our main analysis, was analysed in the intention-to-treat population, which comprised all patients who were randomly assigned. Safety was also analysed in the intention-to-treat population for our main analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04492254, and is complete.

Findings

Following the advice of the Data and Safety Monitoring Board, this study was terminated early due to slow enrolment and a lower-than-expected event rate. Between Oct 27, 2020, and Nov 8, 2021, 230 patients with COVID-19 were assessed for eligibility, of whom 219 were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive standard of care (n=114) or enoxaparin (n=105). 96 (44%) patients were women, 122 (56%) were men, and one patient had missing sex data. 141 (65%) of 218 participants with data on race and ethnicity were White, 60 (28%) were Asian, and 16 (7%) were Black, mixed race, or Arab or Middle Eastern. Median follow-up in both groups was 21 days (IQR 21–21). There was no difference in the composite of all-cause mortality and hospitalisation at 21 days between the enoxaparin group (12 [11%] of 105 patients) and the standard-of-care group (12 [11%] of 114 patients; unadjusted hazard ratio 1·09 [95% CI 0·49–2·43]; log-rank p=0·83). At 21 days, two (2%) of 105 patients in the enoxaparin group (one minor bleed and one bleed of unknown severity) and one (1%) of 114 patients in the standard-of-care group (major abnormal uterine bleeding) had a bleeding event. 22 (21%) patients in the enoxaparin group and 13 (11%) patients in the standard-of-care group had adverse events. The most common adverse event in both groups was COVID-19-related pneumonia (six [6%] patients in the enoxaparin group and five [4%] patients in the standard-of-care group). One patient in the enoxaparin group died and their cause of death was unknown.

Interpretation

The ETHIC trial results suggest that prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin had no benefit for at-risk outpatients with COVID-19. Although the trial was terminated early, our data, combined with data from similar studies, provide further insights to inform international guidelines and influence clinical practice.

Funding

The Thrombosis Research Institute and Sanofi UK.

Association of body mass index with outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: GARFIELD-AF

Objective

While greater body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF), the impact of BMI on outcomes in newly diagnosed AF is unclear. We examine the influence of BMI on outcomes and whether this is modified by sex and evaluate the effect of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with high BMI.

Methods

GARFIELD-AF is a prospective registry of 52 057 newly diagnosed AF patients. The study population comprised 40 482 participants: 703 underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m²), 13 095 normal (BMI=18.5–24.9 kg/m²), 15 043 overweight (BMI=25.0–29.9 kg/m²), 7560 obese (BMI=30.0–34.9 kg/m²) and 4081 extremely obese (BMI ≥35.0 kg/m²). Restricted cubic splines quantified the association of BMI with outcomes. Comparative effectiveness of NOACs and vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) by BMI was performed using propensity score overlap-weighted Cox models.

Results

The median age of participants was 71.0 years (Q1; Q3 62.0; 78.0), and 55.6% were male. Those with high BMI were younger, more often had vascular disease, hypertension and diabetes. Within 2-year follow-up, a U-shaped relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality was observed, with BMI of ~30 kg/m² associated with the lowest risk. The association with new/worsening heart failure was similar. Only low BMI was associated with major bleeding and no association emerged for non-haemorrhagic stroke. BMI was similarly associated with outcomes in men and women. BMI did not impact the lower rate of all-cause mortality of NOACs compared with VKAs.

Conclusions

In the GARFIELD-AF registry, underweight and extremely obese AF patients have increased risk of mortality and new/worsening heart failure compared with normal or obese patients.

Universal Clinician Device for improving risk prediction and management of patients with atrial fibrillation: an assumed benefit analysis

Aim

Atrial fibrillation (AF) management guidelines advise using risk tools to optimize AF treatment. This study aims to develop a dynamic and clinically applicable digital device to assess stroke and bleeding risk, and to facilitate outcome improvements in AF patients. The device will provide tailored treatment recommendations according to easily attainable individual patient data.

Methods and Results

This Universal Clinician Device (UCD) was created using the GARFIELD-AF registry using a split sample approach. The GARFIELD-AF risk tool was adapted with two modifications. First, predictors with ≥1000 missing data points were separated, allowing expected risks estimation. Second, recommendations for modifiable risk factors and associated 2-year outcome estimates were incorporated. Outcomes of interest were all-cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and major bleeding. All patients were randomized to a derivation (n = 34853) and validation cohort (n = 17165). In the derivation cohort, predictors were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Cox models were fitted with the selected parameters. The UCD demonstrated superior predictive power compared with CHA₂DS₂VASc for all-cause mortality [0.75(0.75-0.76) vs. 0.71(0.70-0.72)] and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE [0.68(0.66-0.70) vs. 0.65(0.63-0.67)], and with HAS-BLED for major bleeding [0.69(0.67-0.71) vs. 0.64(0.62-0.65)]. Universal Clinician Device recommendations reduced all-cause mortality (8.45-5.42%) and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (2.58-1.50%). Patients with concomitant diabetes and chronic kidney disease benefitted further, reducing mortality risk from 13.15% to 8.67%. One-third of patients with a CHA₂DS₂VASc score of >1 had the lowest risk of stroke.

Conclusion

The UCD simultaneously predicts mortality, stroke, and bleeding risk in patients using easily attainable individual clinical data and guideline-based optimized treatment plans.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF: NCT01090362.

Two-year outcomes of UK patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation: findings from the prospective observational cohort study GARFIELD-AF

BACKGROUND

The outcomes of patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) following the introduction of direct-acting oral anticoagulants are not well known.

AIM

To determine the 2-year outcomes of patients newly diagnosed with AF, and the effectiveness of oral anticoagulants in everyday practice.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a prospective observational cohort study in UK primary care.

METHOD

In total, 3574 patients aged ≥18 years with a new AF diagnosis were enrolled. A propensity score was applied using an overlap weighting scheme to obtain unbiased estimates of the treatment effect of anticoagulation versus no anticoagulation on the occurrence of death, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding within 2 years of diagnosis.

RESULTS

Overall, 65.8% received anticoagulant therapy, 20.8% received an antiplatelet only, and 13.4% received neither. During the study period, the overall incidence rates of all-cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding were 4.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.69 to 4.65), 1.45 (95% CI = 1.19 to 1.77), and 1.21 (95% CI = 0.97 to 1.50) per 100 person-years, respectively. Anticoagulation treatment compared with no anticoagulation treatment was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.70 (95% CI = 0.53 to 0.93), significantly lower risk of non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (aHR 0.39, 95% CI = 0.24 to 0.62), and a non-significant higher risk of major bleeding (aHR 1.31, 95% CI = 0.77 to 2.24).

CONCLUSION

The data support a benefit of anticoagulation in reducing stroke and death, without an increased risk of a major bleed in patients with new-onset AF. Anticoagulation treatment in patients at high risk of stroke who are not receiving anticoagulation may further improve outcomes.

Validating risk models versus age alone for atrial fibrillation in a young Dutch population cohort: should atrial fibrillation risk prediction be expanded to younger community members?

BACKGROUND

Advancing age is the primary selection criterion for community screening for atrial fibrillation (AF), with selection often restricted to those aged ≥65 years. If multivariable models were shown to have considerable additional value over age alone in predicting AF risk among younger individuals, AF screening could be expanded to patients with lower age, but with high AF risk as per a validated risk model.

METHODS

We validated risk models CHARGE-AF (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for AF) and FHS-AF (Framingham Heart Study model for AF), and risk scores CHA₂DS₂-VASc and CHA₂DS₂-VA, and presented their predictive abilities for 5-year and 10-year AF risk versus that of age alone in a young Dutch population cohort (PREVEND) free from AF at baseline. We assessed discrimination by the C-statistic and calibration by the calibration plot and stratified Kaplan-Meier plot using survey-weighted Cox models.

RESULTS

During 5-year and 10-year follow-up there were n=98 (2.46/1000 person-years) and n=249 (3.29/1000 person-years) new AF cases, respectively, among 8265 participants with mean age 49±13 years. CHARGE-AF and FHS-AF both showed good discrimination for 5-year and 10-year AF (C-statistic range 0.83-0.86) with accurate calibration for 5-year AF, but overestimation of 10-year AF risk in highest-risk individuals. CHA₂DS₂-VASc and CHA₂DS₂-VA relatively underperformed. Age alone showed similar discrimination to that of CHARGE-AF and FHS-AF both in the overall, young PREVEND cohort and in subgroups for lower age and lower stroke risk.

CONCLUSION

Multivariable models accurately discriminate for 5-year and 10-year AF risk among young European community-dwelling individuals. However, their additional discriminatory value over age alone was limited. Selection strategies for primary AF screening using multivariable models should not be expanded to younger individuals.

Do baseline characteristics and treatments account for geographical disparities in the outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation? The prospective GARFIELD-AF registry

OBJECTIVE

In patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), do baseline risk factors and stroke prevention strategies account for the geographically diverse outcomes.

DESIGN

Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation is a prospective multinational non-interventional registry of patients with newly diagnosed AF (n=52 018 patients).

SETTING

Investigator sites (n=1317) were representative of the care settings/locations in each of the 35 participating countries. Treatment decisions were all determined by the local responsible clinicians.

PARTICIPANTS

The patients (18 years and over) with newly diagnosed AF had at least 1 investigator-determined stroke risk factor and patients were not required to meet specific thresholds of risk score for anticoagulant treatment.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Observed 1-year event rates and risk-standardised rates were derived.

RESULTS

Rates of death, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding varied more than three-to-four fold across countries even after adjustment for baseline factors and antithrombotic treatments. Rates of anticoagulation and antithrombotic treatment varied widely. Patients from countries with the highest rates of cardiovascular mortality and stroke were among the least likely to receive oral anticoagulants. Beyond anticoagulant treatment, variations in the treatment of comorbidities and lifestyle factors may have contributed to the variations in outcomes. Countries with the lowest healthcare Access and Quality indices (India, Ukraine, Argentina, Brazil) had the highest risk-standardised mortality.

CONCLUSION

The variability in outcomes across countries for patients with newly diagnosed AF is not accounted for by baseline characteristics and antithrombotic treatments. Residual mortality rates were correlated with Healthcare Access and Quality indices. The findings suggest the management of patients with AF needs to not only address guideline indicated and sustained anticoagulation, but also the treatment of comorbidities and lifestyle factors.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01090362.

The importance of the design of observational studies in comparative effectiveness research: Lessons from the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the effectiveness of a treatment. However, in many instances they are impractical to conduct because of time limitations, cost restrictions, or ethical reasons. As a consequence, non-randomized observational studies have an important role in comparative effectiveness and safety research since they can address issues that would not be possible using conventional RCT methodology. Observational studies can be strategically designed to reduce the risk of potential sources of bias by emulating the design principles of an equivalent but ideal randomized trial - the target trial - that would answer the research question of interest. In this article, we review some of the necessary components of observational studies required for valid causal inference within the framework of target trial emulation, so as to avoid common methodological pitfalls of study design. We discuss the assumptions of consistency, time-zero specification, exchangeability and positivity. To illustrate these concepts in a context where existing knowledge is well-established through clinical trials, we evaluate and compare the treatment effects of vitamin K antagonists (VKA) against no VKA (No VKA) on the treatment of atrial fibrillation from two real-world observational studies, namely the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries. Results are compared with those of published RCTs.

Risk profile, antithrombotic treatment and clinical outcomes of patients in Nordic countries with atrial fibrillation - results from the GARFIELD-AF registry

AIMS

The objective was to evaluate the clinical characteristics, management and two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke in Nordic countries.

METHODS

We examined the baseline characteristics, antithrombotic treatment, and two-year clinical outcomes of patients from four Nordic countries.

RESULTS

A total of 52,080 patients were enrolled in the GARFIELD-AF. Out of 29,908 European patients, 2,396 were recruited from Nordic countries. The use of oral anticoagulants, alone or in combination with antiplatelet (AP), was higher in Nordic patients in all CHA2DS2-VASc categories: 0-1 (72.8% vs 60.3%), 2-3 (78.7% vs 72.9%) and ≥4 (79.2% vs 74.1%). In Nordic patients, NOAC ± AP was more frequently prescribed (32.0% vs 27.7%) and AP monotherapy was less often prescribed (10.4% vs 18.2%) when compared with Non-Nordic European patients. The rates (per 100 patient years) of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) were similar in Nordic and Non-Nordic European patients [3.63 (3.11-4.23) vs 4.08 (3.91-4.26), p value = .147] and [0.98 (0.73-1.32) vs 1.02 (0.93-1.11), p value = .819], while major bleeding was significantly higher [1.66 (1.32-2.09) vs 1.01 (0.93-1.10), p value < .001].

CONCLUSION

Nordic patients had significantly higher major bleeding than Non-Nordic-European patients. In contrast, rates of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE were comparable.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Unique identifier: NCT01090362. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov.

KEY MESSAGE

Nordic countries had significantly higher major bleeding than Non-Nordic-European countries. Rates of mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE were similar .

Cardioversion in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation: observational study using prospectively collected registry data

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the clinical outcomes of patients who underwent cardioversion compared with those who did not have cardioverson in a large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

DESIGN

Observational study using prospectively collected registry data (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF-GARFIELD-AF).

SETTING

1317 participating sites in 35 countries.

PARTICIPANTS

52 057 patients aged 18 years and older with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (up to six weeks' duration) and at least one investigator determined stroke risk factor.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Comparisons were made between patients who received cardioversion and those who had no cardioversion at baseline, and between patients who received direct current cardioversion and those who had pharmacological cardioversion. Overlap propensity weighting with Cox proportional hazards models was used to evaluate the effect of cardioversion on clinical endpoints (all cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding), adjusting for baseline risk and patient selection.

RESULTS

44 201 patients were included in the analysis comparing cardioversion and no cardioversion, and of these, 6595 (14.9%) underwent cardioversion at baseline. The propensity score weighted hazard ratio for all cause mortality in the cardioversion group was 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.86) from baseline to one year follow-up and 0.77 (0.64 to 0.93) from one year to two year follow-up. Of the 6595 patients who had cardioversion at baseline, 299 had a follow-up cardioversion more than 48 days after enrolment. 7175 patients were assessed in the analysis comparing type of cardioversion: 2427 (33.8%) received pharmacological cardioversion and 4748 (66.2%) had direct current cardioversion. During one year follow-up, event rates (per 100 patient years) for all cause mortality in patients who received direct current and pharmacological cardioversion were 1.36 (1.13 to 1.64) and 1.70 (1.35 to 2.14), respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation, a small proportion were treated with cardioversion. Direct current cardioversion was performed twice as often as pharmacological cardioversion, and there appeared to be no major difference in outcome events for these two cardioversion modalities. For the overall cardioversion group, after adjustments for confounders, a significantly lower risk of mortality was found in patients who received early cardioversion compared with those who did not receive early cardioversion.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01090362.

Comparative effectiveness of NOAC vs VKA in patients representing common clinical challenges: results from the GARFIELD-AF registry

Introduction

Large phase III trials of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) patients have shown a favourable risk-to-benefit ratio with Non-Vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) compared to Vitamin K antagonists (VKA). Although the results of these trials are directly applicable to many AF patients, important subsets of patients were under-represented. Thus, there remains uncertainty about the safety and effectiveness of NOAC therapy in common challenging scenarios.

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to quantify and compare the impact of NOAC vs VKA in settings where clinical uncertainty still exists and represents a considerable proportion of AF patients in clinical practice.

Methods

The analysis was conducted in patients enrolled in the largest AF multinational prospective registry (the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD–Atrial Fibrillation, GARFIELD-AF). We evaluated the effectiveness and safety of NOAC compared to VKA in three groups of patients representing common clinical challenges (CCC): 1) elderly patients (i.e. age ≥75), 2) increased bleeding risk (i.e. HAS-BLED ≥3 or prior bleeding), and 3) renal impairment (i.e. CKD stages II to IV).

We applied a propensity score using an overlap weighting scheme to obtain unbiased estimates of the treatment effect within each CCC group. Weights were applied to Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the effects of the NOAC vs VKA comparison on the occurrence of death, non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE and major bleeding within 2 years of enrolment.

Results

Comparative effectiveness of NOAC vs VKA was assessed in 8607 elderly patients, 1711 with increased bleeding risk, and 4460 with renal impairment.

The proportion of anticoagulated patients was low in patients with increased bleeding risk (59%), while in the other two CCC groups the corresponding proportion was close to the one in the overall population (72%).

Among anticoagulated patients, NOAC were prescribed to 50–55% of patients in the CCC groups. Patients with a high risk of bleeding and impaired kidney function were less likely to be prescribed NOAC instead of VKA compared with the overall anticoagulated population (−5.4% and −4.7%, respectively).

Propensity-weighted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality favored NOAC (vs VKA) in all three CCC groups: 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74–0.99) for elderly patients, 0.73 (0.53–1.00) for patients with increased bleeding risk, and 0.80 (0.65–0.98) for patients with renal impairment (Figure).

Conclusion

In the selected common challenging scenarios of AF patients, there were significant mortality reductions in favor of NOACs compared to VKAs. These observations suggest that NOACs are safe and effective in patients who are elderly, at increased bleeding risk, or renally impaired.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This study was supported by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany, to TRI, London, UK, which sponsors the GARFIELD-AF registry. The work is supported by KANTOR CHARITABLE FOUNDATION for the Kantor-Kakkar Global Centre for Thrombosis Science.

Rivaroxaban dosing in patients with atrial fibrillation: results from the RIVER registry – is dosing according to renal function appropriate?

Introduction

Rivaroxaban is recommended as an option for anticoagulation in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) with one or more risk factors for stroke. The approved/recommended rivaroxaban dose for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is solely based on renal function: 20 mg once daily (od) for patients with a creatinine clearance [CrCl] ≥50 ml/min and 15 mg od in patients with CrCl 15–49 mL/min).

Purpose

To assess the patterns of rivaroxaban prescription as per the creatinine clearances levels and to assess the impact of the rivaroxaban dosing on the rate of events at 2-year follow-up in patients with AF.

Methods

RIVaroxaban Evaluation in Real Life setting (RIVER) is a prospective international registry of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF treated with rivaroxaban for the prevention of thromboembolic stroke and at least one investigator-determined risk factor for stroke. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were obtained through Cox proportional-hazard model.

Results

Among 3402 patients with normal renal function (CrCl ≥50 mL/min), 82.1% were prescribed the recommended rivaroxaban dose of 20 mg (od) at baseline. Among 524 patients with moderate or severe renal impairment (CrCl 15–50 mL/min), 55.3% patients received rivaroxaban 15 mg (od), 39.9% received 20 mg (od) and 4.2% 10 mg (od). Non-recommended dosing was rare in patients younger than 70 (13.5%) but more frequent in older patients (28.8%). Non-recommended low dosing was more frequent in Asians (38.9%), compared to non-Asian patients (13.8%).

Regarding clinical outcomes, adjusted hazards ratios (HR, presented with 95% confidence intervals) showed that the non-recommended low dosing (&lt;20 mg od) was associated with higher risk of non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.09 (1.16–3.77)) in patients with normal renal function. The non-recommended high dosing (&gt;15 mg od) was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.63 (0.42–0.93)) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.32 (0.13–0.77)) and higher risk of major bleeding (HR 2.86 (1.49–5.50)) in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment (figure 1 and 2).

Conclusion

In patients with normal renal function, non-recommended low dose rivaroxaban was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality without reducing the risk of major bleeding compared to recommended dosing. In patients with CrCl &lt;50 ml/min, non-recommended high dose rivaroxaban was associated with reduced cardiovascular mortality but at the cost of increased major bleeding. These observational data largely support the reduction of rivaroxaban dosing according to renal function but educational strategies are needed to ensure that rivaroxaban is used appropriately.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany, to TRI, London, UK, which sponsors the RIVER registry. This work is supported by KANTOR CHARITABLE FOUNDATION for the Kantor-Kakkar Global Centre for Thrombosis Science.

Safety and efficacy of apixaban and rivaroxaban versus warfarin in real-world atrial fibrillation patients are similar to their randomized trials: insights from GARFIELD-AF registry

Introduction

Generalisability of patient selection in the landmark trials for the approval of apixaban (ARISTOTLE) and rivaroxaban (ROCKET AF) for use in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is limited. Although observational data have confirmed the safety and efficacy of these non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in unselected AF populations, robust replication of randomized trials in observational studies is warranted.

Purpose

To investigate the proportion of real-world AF patients who would have been eligible for the landmark trials for ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF, and to assess reproducibility of these landmark trials in the largest, worldwide, prospective registry of newly diagnosed AF patients.

Methods

We analysed data from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD–Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) registry. We assessed the eligibility of AF patients treated with apixaban or vitamin K antagonist (VKA) for ARISTOTLE, and those treated with rivaroxaban or VKA for ROCKET AF, using the selection criteria of the original trials. We replicated the inclusion and exclusion criteria of ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF by deriving the set of patients eligible for each trial and calculating the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality within 2 years of enrolment, using a propensity score overlap weighted Cox model. We compared the results from observational data with those reported in the original ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF publications.

Results

Among all patients enrolled in GARFIELD-AF, 67% were eligible for recruitment in ARISTOTLE and 37% in ROCKET AF. The corresponding proportions among anticoagulated patients were 70% and 39%, respectively. Among patients on apixaban and VKA, 2570/3615 (71%) and 8005/11718 (68%), respectively, were eligible for ARISTOTLE. Of patients using rivaroxaban and VKA, 2005/4914 (41%) and 4368/11721 (37%), respectively, were eligible for ROCKET AF. Annual eligibility rates among real-world NOAC users were stable over time (Figure 1). Registry participants on rivaroxaban or VKA eligible for ROCKET AF had a higher burden of cardiovascular co-morbidity than those on apixaban or VKA eligible for ARISTOTLE. The adjusted HRs in observational data were compatible with results of the original trials in all selected outcomes (Figure 2).

Conclusion

Representativeness of ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF for real-world AF populations was limited, with ROCKET AF's criteria being more restrictive. Despite inclusion of only incident AF cases in GARFIELD-AF versus mostly prevalent AF cases in the original trials, the results were similar. Our work indicates that the results from ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF appear robust and reproducible in real-world patients with newly diagnosed AF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany, to TRI, London, UK, which sponsors the GARFIELD-AF registry. This work is supported by KANTOR CHARITABLE FOUNDATION for the Kantor-Kakkar Global Centre for Thrombosis Science.

Two-year outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation treated with rivaroxaban: results from RIVER registry

Introduction

Non-vitamin-K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were recommended in preference to oral vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in the 2020 updated guidelines for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). Rivaroxaban is a NOAC that is approved in many countries worldwide for reducing the risk of stroke or systemic embolism in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF).

Purpose

To explore the baseline characteristics, dosing and 2-year outcomes of patients with AF treated with rivaroxaban.

Methods

RIVaroxaban Evaluation in Real Life setting (RIVER) is a prospective international, multicenter registry of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF treated with rivaroxaban for the prevention of thromboembolic stroke and at least one investigator-determined risk factor for stroke.

Results

A total of 5043 patients were enrolled into RIVER between January 2015 and June 2017. Mean (SD) age at diagnosis was 69.5 (11.0) years and 55.7% were males. Caucasian patients represented the largest proportion of patients in RIVER (80.3%), followed by Asians (5.5%) and hispanic/latino (3.7%). Almost all patients (98.5%) were prescribed a single daily dose of rivaroxaban, most commonly 20 mg (77.3%) and 15 mg (20.4%), while a 10 mg dose was prescribed in only 2.3% of patients. During the 2-year follow-up, the rates (95% CI) of all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding were 2.75 (2.43 to 3.12), 0.89 (0.72; 1.11), and 1.26 (1.05 to 1.52) per 100 person years, respectively (Figure 1). The most common cardiovascular cause of death was congestive heart failure (30.4%) and myocardial infarction (11.4%). Leading non-cardiovascular causes of death were malignancy (27.4%), respiratory failure (18.9%) and infections/sepsis (13.2%). Over 2 years, 710 (14.1%) of patients discontinued rivaroxaban. The corresponding proportions at 6 months and 1 year were 7.8% and 10.8%, respectively. Out of all the patients who discontinued, 62 (8.7%) restarted rivaroxaban during their follow-up (Table 1).

Conclusion

During 2 years of follow up in the international, prospective RIVER registry, rivaroxaban treatment for AF was associated with low rates of stroke or major bleeding.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany, to TRI, London, UK. This work is supported by KANTOR CHARITABLE FOUNDATION for the Kantor-Kakkar Global Centre for Thrombosis Science.

Comparing rivaroxaban and apixaban in GARFIELD-AF according to ROCKET AF and ARISTOTLE trial selection criteria

Introduction

There is debate on the extent to which differences in selection criteria and outcome definitions used for ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF – the trials for the approval of apixaban and rivaroxaban, respectively, for non-valvular atrial fibrillation – influenced their differences in outcomes relative to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). In absence of randomized trials comparing the two non-vitamin K oral antagonists (NOACs) directly, this question can be addressed using data from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD–Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) registry, a large, high-quality prospective observational study of newly diagnosed AF patients.

Purpose

To assess the influence of the ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF inclusion and exclusion criteria on results for safety and efficacy of apixaban and rivaroxaban versus VKA using uniform endpoints in GARFIELD-AF.

Methods

We selected patients treated with apixaban, rivaroxaban or VKA from GARFIELD-AF who were eligible for ARISTOTLE or ROCKET AF as per the original trial criteria. We replicated the inclusion criteria in the GARFIELD-AF population and derived those eligible for each trial. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding and all-cause mortality within 2 years of enrolment for apixaban as well as rivaroxaban versus VKA (reference) in those eligible for each trial. We used a propensity score overlap weighted Cox model to emulate trial randomization between NOAC and VKA.

Results

Among patients on apixaban, rivaroxaban and VKA, 2570/3615 (71%), 3560/4914 (72%) and 8005/11734 (71%) were eligible for ARISTOTLE, respectively, and 1612/3615 (45%), 2005/4914 (41%) and 4368/11734 (37%), respectively, were eligible for ROCKET AF. Cardiovascular co-morbidity was greater in those eligible for ROCKET AF than in those eligible for ARISTOTLE. In patients selected using the more restrictive ROCKET AF criteria, apixaban and rivaroxaban users showed similar results when compared with VKA (see Figure). The two sets of comparisons remained non-significant in difference when applying the less restrictive ARISTOTLE criteria, but there were trends for less similarity.

Conclusion

Apixaban showed similar results to rivaroxaban when selecting for higher-risk patients using the ROCKET AF criteria. In patients selected using ARISTOTLE criteria the similarity was less pronounced. Our results underline the problems faced in comparing treatments across rather than within clinical trials. For instance, co-morbidities were substantially different for patients recruited into the original ARISTOTLE and ROCKET AF trials. The current work points to the need for high-quality observational data for assessment of relative drug performance in absence of direct drug comparisons through randomized trials.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany, to TRI, London, UK, which sponsors the GARFIELD-AF registry. This work is supported by KANTOR CHARITABLE FOUNDATION for the Kantor-Kakkar Global Centre for Thrombosis Science.

Clinical Outcomes in Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Atrial Fibrillation Presentations in GARFIELD-AF: Implications for AF Screening

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic atrial fibrillation is often detected incidentally. Prognosis and optimal therapy for asymptomatic compared with symptomatic atrial fibrillation is uncertain. This study compares clinical characteristics, treatment, and 2-year outcomes of asymptomatic and symptomatic atrial fibrillation presentations.

METHODS

Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is a global, prospective, observational study of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation with ≥1 stroke risk factors (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov, unique identifier: NCT01090362). Patients were characterized by atrial fibrillation-related symptoms at presentation and the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score. Two-year follow-up recorded anticoagulation patterns (vitamin K antagonist, direct oral anticoagulants, parenteral therapy) and outcomes (stroke/systemic embolism, all-cause mortality, and bleeding).

RESULTS

At presentation, of 52,032 eligible patients, 25.4% were asymptomatic and 74.6% symptomatic. Asymptomatic patients were slightly older (72 vs 70 years), more often male (64.2% vs 52.9%), and more frequently initiated on anticoagulation ± antiplatelets (69.4% vs 66.0%). No difference in events (adjusted hazard ratios, 95% confidence interval) for nonhemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (1.19, 0.97-1.45), all-cause mortality (1.06, 0.94-1.20), or bleeding (1.02, 0.87-1.19) was observed. Anticoagulation was associated with comparable reduction in nonhemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (0.59, 0.43-0.82 vs 0.78, 0.65-0.93) and all-cause mortality (0.69, 0.59-0.81 vs 0.77, 0.71-0.85) in asymptomatic versus symptomatic, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Major outcomes do not differ between asymptomatic and symptomatic atrial fibrillation presentations and are comparably reduced by anticoagulation. Opportunistic screening-detected asymptomatic atrial fibrillation likely has the same prognosis as asymptomatic atrial fibrillation at presentation and likely responds similarly to anticoagulation thromboprophylaxis.

The association between patterns of atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, and cardiovascular events

AIMS

Guidelines do not recommend to take pattern of atrial fibrillation (AF) into account for the indication of anticoagulation (AC). We assessed AF pattern and the risk of cardiovascular events during 2-years of follow-up.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We categorized AF as paroxysmal, persistent, or permanent in 29 181 patients enrolled (2010-15) in the Global Anticoagulant Registry In the FIELD of AF (GARFIELD-AF). We used multivariable Cox regression to assess the risks of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and death across patterns of AF, and whether this changed with AC on outcomes. Atrial fibrillation pattern was paroxysmal in 14 344 (49.2%), persistent in 8064 (27.6%), and permanent 6773 (23.2%) patients. Median CHA2DS2-VASc, GARFIELD-AF, and HAS-BLED scores assessing the risk of stroke/SE and/or bleeding were similar across AF patterns, but the risk of death, as assessed by the GARFIELD-AF risk calculator, was higher in non-paroxysmal than in paroxysmal AF patterns. During 2-year follow-up, after adjustment, non-paroxysmal AF patterns were associated with significantly higher rates of all-cause death, stroke/SE, and new/worsening congestive heart failure (CHF) than paroxysmal AF in non-anticoagulated patients only. In anticoagulated patients, a significantly higher risk of death but not of stroke/SE and new/worsening CHF persisted in non-paroxysmal compared with paroxysmal AF patterns.

CONCLUSION

In non-anticoagulated patients, non-paroxysmal AF patterns were associated with higher risks of stroke/SE, new/worsening HF and death than paroxysmal AF. In anticoagulated patients, the risk of stroke/SE and new/worsening HF was similar across all AF patterns. Thus AF pattern is no longer prognostic for stroke/SE when patients are treated with anticoagulants.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362.

Comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulants in everyday practice

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the comparative effectiveness of vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), direct thrombin inhibitors (DTIs) and factor Xa inhibitors (FXaI) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) at risk of stroke in everyday practice.

METHODS

Data from patients with AF and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age 75 years, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke, TIA, or thromboembolism, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category (CHA2DS2-VASc) score ≥2 (excluding gender) in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation registry were analysed using an improved method of propensity weighting, overlap weights and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

All-cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding over 2 years were compared in 25 551 patients, 7162 (28.0%) not treated with oral anticoagulant (OAC) and 18 389 (72.0%) treated with OAC (FXaI (41.8%), DTI (11.4%) and VKA (46.8%)). OAC treatment compared with no OAC treatment was associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.91)) and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (HR 0.71 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.88)) but increased risk of major bleeding (HR 1.46 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.86)). Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) use compared with no OAC treatment was associated with lower risks of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (HR 0.67 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77)) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.86)) respectively, with no increase in major bleeding (HR 1.10 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.47)). NOAC use compared with VKA use was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and major bleeding (rates/100 patient-years 3.6 (95% CI 3.3 to 3.9) vs 4.8 (95% CI 4.5 to 5.2) and 1.0 (95% CI 0.9 to 1.1) vs 1.4 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.6); HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.89) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.98) respectively), with similar risk of non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (rates/100 patient-years 0.8 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.9) versus 1.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.1); HR 0.96 (95% CI 0.73 to 1.25).

CONCLUSION

Important benefits in terms of mortality and major bleeding were observed with NOAC versus VKA with no difference among NOAC subtypes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01090362.

Middle East Treatment Strategies and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: One-Year Follow-up Data from Garfield-AF Study

INTRODUCTION

The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) aims to determine real-life treatment patterns and clinical outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and at least one investigator-determined risk factor for stroke. The registry includes a wide array of baseline characteristics and has a particular focus on: (1) bleeding and thromboembolic events; (2) international normalized ratio fluctuations; and (3) therapy compliance and persistence patterns.

METHODS

Evolution in baseline treatment for patients enrolled in sequential cohorts showed an increase in prescribing of novel oral anticoagulants over time. Variability in novel oral anticoagulant prescription is primarily due to differences in availability of treatment and prescribing habits between countries and care settings. The GARFIELD-AF registry also provides insights into clinical management and related outcomes of AF in Middle East populations.

RESULTS

A total of 1660 patients with non-valvular AF (median age 64.0 years, interquartile range 56.0-72.0), mostly diagnosed in cardiology settings from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, were recruited in cohorts 3-5. Data from patient populations in the Middle East related to the rates of stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding and all-cause mortality 1 year after diagnosis of AF and treatment strategies, based on the stroke and bleeding risk, have been analysed and compared with the rest of the world. The use of antithrombotic treatment in the Middle East was generally higher than the non-Middle East, with increased prescription of antiplatelet therapy (AP) therapy. Appropriate use of Factor Xa inhibitors/direct thrombin inhibitors (DTIs) were 74.4% and Factor Xa/DTI + APs were 70.4% in the overall population, whereas they were 57.1% and 63.6%, respectively, in the Middle East.

CONCLUSION

We have found that rates of stroke and bleeding were lower, although mortality was higher, in the Middle East population. This paper describes the baseline characteristics, patterns of antithrombotic treatment and 1-year outcomes in Middle East AF patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Identifier, NCT01090362.

GARFIELD-AF risk score for mortality, stroke and bleeding within 2 years in patients with atrial fibrillation

Aims

To determine whether the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD–Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) integrated risk tool predicts mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding for up to 2 years after new-onset AF and to assess how this risk tool performs compared with CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED.

Methods and results

Potential predictors of events included demographic and clinical characteristics, choice of treatment, and lifestyle factors. A Cox proportional hazards model was identified for each outcome by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator methods. Indices were evaluated in comparison with CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED risk predictors. Models were validated internally and externally in ORBIT-AF and Danish nationwide registries. Among the 52 080 patients enrolled in GARFIELD-AF, 52 032 had follow-up data. The GARFIELD-AF risk tool outperformed CHA₂DS₂-VASc for all-cause mortality in all cohorts. The GARFIELD-AF risk score was superior to CHA₂DS₂-VASc for non-haemorrhagic stroke, and it outperformed HAS-BLED for major bleeding in internal validation and in the Danish AF cohort. In very low- to low-risk patients [CHA₂DS₂-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)], the GARFIELD-AF risk score offered strong discriminatory value for all the endpoints when compared to CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED. The GARFIELD-AF tool also included the effect of oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy, thus allowing clinicians to compare the expected outcome of different anticoagulant treatment decisions [i.e. no OAC, non-vitamin K antagonist (VKA) oral anticoagulants, or VKAs].

Conclusions

The GARFIELD-AF risk tool outperformed CHA₂DS₂-VASc at predicting death and non-haemorrhagic stroke, and it outperformed HAS-BLED for major bleeding in overall as well as in very low- to low-risk group patients with AF.

Clinical trial registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF: NCT01090362, ORBIT-AF I: NCT01165710; ORBIT-AF II: NCT01701817.

Characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation patients with heart failure: GARFIELD-AF

Aims

Heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) may coexist and influence each other. However, characteristics, anticoagulant treatment, and outcomes of contemporary AF patients with concurrent HF are ill‐defined. This study analyses characteristics, treatment, and 2 year outcomes in newly diagnosed Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD‐Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD‐AF) patients with vs. without HF.

Methods and results

GARFIELD‐AF is the world's largest observational AF patient study. At enrolment, 11 758 of 52 072 patients (22.6%) had HF; 76.3% were New York Heart Association class II–III. Patients with HF had comparable demographics, blood pressure, and heart rate but more likely had permanent (15.6% vs. 11.9%) or persistent AF (18.9% vs. 13.8%), acute coronary syndromes (16.7% vs. 8.9%), vascular disease (40.8% vs. 20.2%), and moderate‐to‐severe chronic kidney disease (14.6% vs. 9.0%) than those without. Anticoagulant prescription was similar between the two groups. At 2 year follow‐up, patients with HF showed a greater risk of all‐cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.91–2.21; P < 0.0001], cardiovascular mortality (HR, 2.91; 95% CI, 2.58–3.29; P < 0.0001), acute coronary syndromes (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02–1.52; P = 0.03), and stroke/systemic embolism (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.07–1.43; P = 0.0044). Major bleeding rate was comparable (adjusted HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.84–1.18; P = 0.968). Among patients without HF at baseline, incidence of new HF was low [0.69 (95% CI, 0.63–0.75) per 100 person‐years], whereas propensity to develop worsening HF was higher in those with HF [1.62 (95% CI, 1.45–1.80) per 100 person‐years].

Conclusions

Patients with AF and HF have a high risk of all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality and stroke/systemic embolism and may develop worsening HF.

Impact of different anticoagulation management strategies on outcomes in atrial fibrillation: Dutch and Belgian results from the GARFIELD-AF registry

BACKGROUND

The uptake rate of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOAC) for the treatment of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) was far lower in the Netherlands (NL) compared to Belgium (BE). Also, patients on VKA in NL were treated with a higher target international normalized ratio (INR) range of 2.5 to 3.5.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the effect of these differences on thromboembolism (TE) and bleeding.

METHODS

Data from the GARFIELD-AF registry was used. Patients with new-onset AF and ≥1 investigator-determined risk factor for stroke were included between 2010 and 2016. Event rates from 2 years of follow-up were used.

RESULTS

In NL and BE, 1186 and 1705 patients were included, respectively. Female sex (42.3% vs 42.2%), mean age (70.7 vs 71.3 years), CHA2 DS2 -VASc (3.1 vs 3.1), and HAS-BLED score (1.4 vs 1.5) were comparable between NL and BE. At diagnosis in NL vs BE, 72.1% vs 14.6% received vitamin K antagonists (VKA) and 17.8% vs 65.5% NOACs, varying greatly across cohorts. Mean INR was 2.9 (±1.0) and 2.4 (±1.0) in NL and BE, respectively. Event rates per 100 patient-years in NL and BE, respectively, of all-cause mortality (3.38 vs 3.90; hazard ratio [HR] 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-1.15), ischemic stroke/TE (0.82 vs 0.72; HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.62-2.11), and major bleeding (2.06 vs 1.54; HR 1.33, 95% CI 0.89-1.99) did not differ significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

In GARFIELD-AF, despite similar characteristics, patients on anticoagulants were treated differently in NL and BE. Although the rate of major bleeding was 33% higher in NL, variations in bleeding, mortality, and TE rates were not statistically significant.

The effect of body mass index on clinical outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in the GARFIELD-AF registry

Introduction

Higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with a higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, previous evidence has suggested an inverse association between BMI and risk of AF outcomes.

Purpose

To explore the association between BMI and outcomes in those with newly diagnosed AF in the GARFIELD-AF registry.

Methods

GARFIELD-AF is an international registry of consecutively recruited patients aged ≥18 years with newly diagnosed AF and ≥1 stroke risk factor. Data were collected prospectively on 52,080 patients. Participants with missing or extreme BMI values and those without two-year follow-up were excluded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the effect of BMI on the risk of outcomes. Models were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, alcohol, and ≥moderate chronic kidney disease. Where appropriate participants were divided into groups based on BMI. Restricted cubic splines were used to assess non-linear relationships.

Results

BMI and outcome data were available for 40,495 patients. Those with higher BMI were generally younger, and more likely to have pre-existing hypertension, diabetes, or vascular disease (Table). Underweight patients received anticoagulation less often than those in other groups (60.3% vs 67.9%, respectively). During follow-up, 2,801 participants (6.9%) died and 603 (1.5%) had new/worsening heart failure. Following adjustment for potential confounders, a U-shaped relationship was seen between BMI and all-cause mortality and new/worsening heart failure (Figure). For all-cause mortality, the lowest risk was at 30kg/m2. Below this level, there was an 8% higher risk of mortality (95% confidence interval (CI) 6 to 9%) per 1kg/m2 lower BMI. Above 30kg/m2, there was a 5% higher risk of mortality per 1kg/m2 higher BMI (95% CI 4 to 7%). For new/worsening heart failure, the lowest risk was at 25kg/m2. Above this level, 1kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with an 5% higher risk (95% CI 13 to 6%).

Conclusions

BMI was an important risk factor for both all-cause mortality and new/worsening heart failure in AF. Those at both extremes of BMI are at higher risk.

BMI and selected outcomes

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): The GARFIELD-AF registry is funded by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG.

Clinical outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation who refused anticoagulation: findings from the global GARFIELD-AF registry

Introduction

Atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a common cause of stroke and anticoagulation (AC) treatment reduces the risk of stroke. Reasons for patients with AF not receiving anticoagulation are generally attributed to the clinician decision, however in reality a proportion of patients refuse anticoagulation. The aim of our study was to investigate the clinical outcomes of patients with AF who refused anticoagulation.

Methods

The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD-AF) was an international prospective observational study of patients ≥18 years with newly diagnosed AF and ≥1 investigator determined risk factor for stroke. We analysed two-year outcomes (unadjusted) of non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (stroke/SE), major bleeding and all-cause mortality in patients at high risk of stroke (men with CHA2DS2VASc≥2 and women with CHA2DS2VASc≥3) who did not received anticoagulation due to patient refusal, patients at high risk of stroke who received anticoagulation, and patients who were not on anticoagulation due to reasons other than patient refusal.

Results

Out of 43,154 patients, 13,283 (30.8%) are at the higher risk of stroke and did not received anticoagulation at baseline. The reason for not receiving anticoagulation was unavailable for 38.7% (5146/13283); of the patients with a known reason for not receiving anticoagulation, 12.5% (1014/8137) refused anticoagulation. Overall the study participants had a mean (SD) age of 72.2 (9.9) years and 50% were female. The median (Q1; Q3) CHA2DS2VASc score was 3.0 (3.0; 5.0) in patients who refused anticoagulation and 4.0 (3.0; 4.0) in patients who received anticoagulation. The median (Q1; Q3) HAS-BLED score was 1.0 (1.0; 2.0) in both groups. Of the patients who received anticoagulants, 59.7% received VKA and 40.3% received non-VKA oral anticoagulants. 79.4% of patients who refused anticoagulation were on antiplatelets. At two-year follow up the rate of events per 100 person-years (AC refused vs AC received) were: stroke/SE 1.42 vs 0.95 (p=0.04), major bleeding 0.62 vs 1.20 (p=0.02), and all-cause mortality 2.28 vs 3.90 (p=0.0004) (Figure). The event rates in patients who were not on anticoagulation for reasons other than patient refusal were stroke/SE 1.56, major bleeding 0.91, and all-cause mortality 5.49.

Conclusion

In this global real-world prospective study of patients with newly diagnosed AF, patients who refused anticoagulation had a higher rate of stroke/SE but lower rates of all-cause mortality and major bleeding than patients who received anticoagulation. While patient refusal of anticoagulation is an acceptable outcome of shared decision-making, clinically it is a missed opportunity to prevent AF related stroke. Patients' beliefs about AF related stroke and anticoagulation need to be explored. The difference in all-cause mortality warrants further investigation; further analysis will include adjusted results.

Event rates at two years of follow-up

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): The GARFIELD-AF registry is funded by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG.

Guideline-directed medical therapies for comorbidities among patients with atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF

Introduction

The GARFIELD-AF registry is a prospective, multicentre, observational study of adults with recently diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and at least one risk factor for stroke. In GARFIELD-AF the absolute risk reduction of mortality associated with anticoagulation is far greater than the apparent absolute risk reduction in (ischemic) stroke. One potential explanation is improved treatment, with the use of comprehensive guideline-directed medical therapies (GDMT), in patients with AF receiving oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy. The objectives were to identify the potential relationships between anticoagulation status, GDMT use and clinical outcomes.

Methods

Use of GDMT was determined on the basis of published European Society for Cardiology guidelines operative between 2010 and 2016. We explored the use of GDMT in patients enrolled in GARFIELD-AF (March 2010-Aug 2016) with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 and with one or more of five comorbidities–coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, hypertension and peripheral vascular disease. Association between GDMT use and clinical outcomes events was evaluated with Cox-proportional hazards models. The models included stratification by all possible combinations of the five comorbidities used to define GDMT eligibility.

Results

The study population comprised of 39,946 patients who had one or more comorbidities (3238 [8.1%] received none of the GDMT, 17,398 [43.6%] received some, and 19,310 [48.3%] received all of the GDMT for which they were eligible). Patients on OAC tended to receive all the GDMTs more frequently compared to patients on no OAC (50.2% vs 44.8%, respectively).

Comprehensive GDMT was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.89 [0.80–0.99]) and non-cardiovascular mortality (0.80 [0.68–0.95]) compared to inadequate or no GDMT but was not associated with a lower risk of stroke (HR: 1.04 (0.88–1.24)] (Figure). The effect of OAC was beneficial for mortality and stroke risk whether receiving comprehensive GDMT or not.

Conclusion

OAC therapy is associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality and stroke/SE in comparison with no OAC, irrespective of GDMT use in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2. Although the use of GDMT is associated with a significant reduction in mortality, there is little evidence that this explains the decrease in mortality with the use of OAC.

GDMT use at two years of follow-up

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): The GARFIELD-AF registry is funded by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG.

Sociodemographic and Reproductive Risk Factors for Breast Cancer: A Case-Control Study in the Setif Province, Northern Algeria

Background:

The age-standardized rate of breast cancer (BC) increased nearly nine-fold in the last 30 years in Setif, Algeria. A case-control study was carried out to investigate the role of sociodemographic characteristics and reproductive factors in the etiology of BC in this young Arab/Berber population of Setif.

Methods:

Cases were 612 women with incident BC admitted to major teaching and general hospitals of Setif during 2012–2017. Controls were 615 women admitted for acute, non-neoplastic conditions to the same hospital network of cases. Information was elicited using a standardized questionnaire. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed after allowance for age and education.

Results:

Significant associations with BC risk emerged for family history of BC (OR= 4.15 for yes vs. no; 95%CI: 2.22-7.77), for the generation of oral contraceptive used (OR=1.57 for II-generation vs. III-generation; 95%CI:1.01-2.44), and education (OR=0.63 for >11 years vs. no schooling; 95%CI: 0.46-0.86). Conversely, parity and body mass index were not associated with BC risk, whereas a late age at menarche was linked with a non statistically significant BC risk (OR=1.20 for >15 vs. <13 years; 95%CI:0.86-1.66). These results were consistent in strata of menopausal status.

Conclusion(s):

Some of the expected risk factors (e.g., low education levels and type of oral contraceptives) were associated with elevated BC risks also in Setif, and these findings offer further support to primary preventive efforts already carried on in Algeria. Conversely, no association emerged for other well established risk factors (e.g., body mass index).

Prior stroke and transient ischemic attack as risk factors for subsequent stroke in atrial fibrillation patients: A report from the GARFIELD-AF registry

BACKGROUND

It is not always possible to verify whether a patient complaining of symptoms consistent with transient ischemic attack has had an actual cerebrovascular event.

RESEARCH QUESTION

To characterize the risk of cardiovascular events associated with a history of stroke/transient ischemic attack in patients with atrial fibrillation.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This study investigated the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with a history of stroke/transient ischemic attack among 52,014 patients enrolled prospectively in GARFIELD-AF registry. The diagnosis of stroke or transient ischemic attack was not protocol defined but based on physicians' assessment. Patients' one-year risk of death, stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding was assessed by multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

At enrollment, 5617 (10.9%) patients were reported to have a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. Patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack were older and had a greater burden of diabetes, moderate-to-severe kidney disease, and atherothrombosis and higher median CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores than those without history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. After adjustment, prior stroke/transient ischemic attack was associated with significantly higher risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR), 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-1.42), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.48), non-cardiovascular death (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.15-1.68), and stroke/systemic embolism (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.80-2.63) than patients without history of stroke/transient ischemic attack. In patients with a prior stroke alone higher risk was observed for all-cause mortality (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.11-1.50), non-cardiovascular death (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.10-1.77), and stroke/systemic embolism (HR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.83-2.86). No significantly elevated risk of adverse events was seen for patients with history of transient ischemic attack alone.

INTERPRETATION

A history of prior stroke or transient ischemic attack is a strong independent risk factor for mortality and stroke/systemic embolism. This excess risk is mainly attributed to a history of stroke (with or without transient ischemic attack), whereas history of transient ischemic attack is a weaker predictor. Clinical trial registration: NCT01090362.

Early Risks of Death, Stroke/Systemic Embolism, and Major Bleeding in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation is associated with increased risks of death, stroke/systemic embolism, and bleeding (incurred by antithrombotic therapy), which may occur early after diagnosis.

METHODS

We assessed the risk of early events (death, stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding) over 12 months and their relation to the time after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation in 52 014 patients prospectively enrolled in the GARFIELD-AF registry (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation) between March 2010 and August 2016.

RESULTS

Over 12 months, 2140 patients died (mortality rate, 4.3; 95% CI, 4.2-4.5 per 100 person-years), of whom 288 (13.5%) died in the first month (6.8; 95% CI, 6.1-7.6). Over 12 months, 657 patients had a stroke/systemic embolism (1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.4) and 411 had a major bleeding (0.8; 95% CI, 0.8-0.9). During the first month, the rates (per 100 person-years) of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleed were 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9-2.8) and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-1.9), respectively. The elevated 1-month mortality rate was mostly attributable to cardiovascular mortality (3.5; 95% CI, 3.0-4.1), in particular, heart failure, sudden death, and acute coronary syndromes (1.0 [95% CI, 0.8-1.4], 0.6 [95% CI, 0.4-0.8], and 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-0.8], respectively). Age, heart failure, prior stroke, history of cirrhosis, vascular disease, moderate-to-severe kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, and living in North or Latin America were independent predictors of a higher risk of early death, whereas anticoagulation and living in Europe or Asia were independent predictors of a lower risk of early death. A predictive model developed for the 1-month risk of death had a C-statistic of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased hazard of early events, in particular, cardiovascular mortality, in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation points to the importance of comprehensive care for such patients and should alert clinicians to detect warning signs of possible early mortality.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01090362.

P5708Balancing risk and benefit in patients with atrial fibrillation: the GARFIELD-AF risk score

Background

The GARFIELD-AF risk tool was originally developed to predict future risk of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) using a range of baseline clinical variables. In the present work a new, improved risk tool was developed using data from all five GARFIELD cohorts gathered over 2 years' follow-up.

Purpose

To derive a new integrated risk tool for predicting mortality, stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and major bleeding in AF patients up to 2 years after enrolment and compare the risk tool versus CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED.

Methods

GARFIELD-AF is an international prospective registry of nonvalvular AF patients diagnosed within 6 weeks prior to enrolment and having at least one risk factor for stroke. In this study only the first occurrence of events was considered. Event rates were estimated using a Poisson model. Potential predictors of events including a large set of demographics, clinical characteristics, choice of treatment, and lifestyle factors were identified, and a Cox proportional hazards model chosen for each outcome by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Indices were compared versus models of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED.

Results

Among a total 52,080 patients enrolled 52,032 (male, 55.8%; median age, 71 years) had available follow-up data. At 2 years, 3702 patients had died (event rate, 3.82 [95% CI, 3.70–3.95] per 100 patient-years) whereas non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE was noted in 957 patients (rate, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.94–1.06] per 100 patient-years) and major bleed/haemorrhagic stroke in 673 patients (rate, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.65–0.75] per 100 patient-years). The GARFIELD risk tool outperformed CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED at predicting all adverse events in the overall population and pre-selected subpopulations over 2 years. Notably, the new model identified use of OAC therapy, which is not included in CHA2DS2-VASc, as one of the strongest predictors of risk of mortality and stroke, and unlike HAS-BLED, could discriminate a lower risk of bleeding in patients treated with NOACs versus VKAs.

Population All-cause mortality Stroke/SE Major bleeding* GARFIELD CHA2DS2-VASc GARFIELD CHA2DS2-VASc GARFIELD CHA2DS2-VASc Overall 0.76 (0.75–0.76) 0.66 (0.65–0.67) 0.68 (0.67–0.70) 0.64 (0.62–0.66) – – AC treated 0.74 (0.73–0.75) 0.65 (0.64–0.66) 0.68 (0.66–0.70) 0.65 (0.62–0.67) 0.67 (0.64–0.69) 0.63 (0.61–0.65) *Model only considers AC-treated patients.

Conclusions

The GARFIELD-AF risk tool demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, outperforming CHA2DS2-VASc at predicting risk of death and non-haemorrhagic stroke and HAS-BLED for major bleed in AF patients over 2 years.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The GARFIELD-AF registry is funded by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG.

P4790Haematuria is not elevated in AF patients treated with NOACs versus VKAs: GARFIELD-AF study

Background

Haematuria in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients taking oral anticoagulants (OACs) is usually viewed as less serious than intracranial and gastrointestinal bleeding. It is speculated that haematuria may result from renal excretion of active new oral anticoagulants (NOACs) causing a direct anticoagulating effect in the urinary tract. Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) such as warfarin, on the other hand, undergo hepatic metabolism and may pose lower risk of haematuria. This large registry study investigated whether NOACs more likely cause haematuria compared with VKAs.

Purpose

To assess whether there is any difference in the incidence rate of haematuria in AF patients taking NOACs versus VKAs using data from the GARFIELD-AF registry.

Methods

GARFIELD-AF is an international prospective registry of nonvalvular AF patients with at least one additional risk factor for stroke, followed for at least 2 years. Macroscopic haematuria was identified by local investigators. Event rates were estimated by Poisson model. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for haematuria between treatment groups was calculated using overlap-weighted Cox model including a range of patient demographics and clinical parameters as variables. Only the first haematuria occurrence was considered. Patients who were not treated with either VKAs or NOACs were excluded.

Results

Among a registry population of 34,926 patients 24,079 were anticoagulated and 24,061 had available follow-up data. Baseline characteristics were evenly balanced between the VKAs and NOACs subgroups, except a somewhat higher proportion of VKA patients than NOAC patients received concomitant antiplatelet therapy. Rate of haematuria was similar between the two groups: VKAs, 115/12,307 cases (0.9% over study period; 0.55 [95% CI, 0.46–0.65] per 100 patient-years); NOACs, 119/11,754 cases (1.0% over study period; 0.49 [95% CI, 0.41–0.59] per 100 patient-years). Over 2 years cumulatively, adjusted HR for haematuria in NOAC group versus VKA was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.63–1.15; p=0.29). Most haematuria cases (approximately 94%) were minor or clinically relevant non-major bleeds, occurring at a similar rate in both subgroups. Major bleeds were very rare. No intervention was necessary in two thirds haematuria cases (65.2%); surgical procedures were performed in only 8.3%. No haematuria-related deaths were observed.

Incidence of haematuria

Conclusions

The incidence and severity of haematuria were not increased in AF patients taking NOACs versus VKAs. Haematuria may occur in approximately one in 100 AF patients on long-term OACs therapy and is usually non-serious.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The GARFIELD-AF registry is funded by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG.

International longitudinal registry of patients with atrial fibrillation and treated with rivaroxaban: RIVaroxaban Evaluation in Real life setting (RIVER)

Background

Real-world data on non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are essential in determining whether evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials translate into meaningful clinical benefits for patients in everyday practice. RIVER (RIVaroxaban Evaluation in Real life setting) is an ongoing international, prospective registry of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and at least one investigator-determined risk factor for stroke who received rivaroxaban as an initial treatment for the prevention of thromboembolic stroke. The aim of this paper is to describe the design of the RIVER registry and baseline characteristics of patients with newly diagnosed NVAF who received rivaroxaban as an initial treatment.

Methods and results

Between January 2014 and June 2017, RIVER investigators recruited 5072 patients at 309 centres in 17 countries. The aim was to enroll consecutive patients at sites where rivaroxaban was already routinely prescribed for stroke prevention. Each patient is being followed up prospectively for a minimum of 2-years. The registry will capture data on the rate and nature of all thromboembolic events (stroke / systemic embolism), bleeding complications, all-cause mortality and other major cardiovascular events as they occur. Data quality is assured through a combination of remote electronic monitoring and onsite monitoring (including source data verification in 10% of cases). Patients were mostly enrolled by cardiologists (n = 3776, 74.6%), by internal medicine specialists 14.2% (n = 718) and by primary care/general practice physicians 8.2% (n = 417). The mean (SD) age of the population was 69.5 (11.0) years, 44.3% were women. Mean (SD) CHADS₂ score was 1.9 (1.2) and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores was 3.2 (1.6). Almost all patients (98.5%) were prescribed with once daily dose of rivaroxaban, most commonly 20 mg (76.5%) and 15 mg (20.0%) as their initial treatment; 17.9% of patients received concomitant antiplatelet therapy. Most patients enrolled in RIVER met the recommended threshold for AC therapy (86.6% for 2012 ESC Guidelines, and 79.8% of patients according to 2016 ESC Guidelines).

Conclusions

The RIVER prospective registry will expand our knowledge of how rivaroxaban is prescribed in everyday practice and whether evidence from clinical trials can be translated to the broader cross-section of patients in the real world.

Trial registration

Unique identifier: NCT02444221. Registerd 14 May 2015; Retrospectively Registered.

Excess mortality related to circulatory system diseases and diabetes mellitus among Italian AIDS patients vs. non-AIDS population: a population-based cohort study using the multiple causes-of-death approach

Background

Chronic diseases, chiefly cancers and circulatory system diseases (CSDs), have become the leading non-AIDS-related causes of death among HIV-infected people, as in the general population. After our previous report of an excess mortality for several non-AIDS-defining cancers, we now aim to assess whether people with AIDS (PWA) experience also an increased mortality for CSDs and diabetes mellitus (DM), as compared to the non-AIDS general population (non-PWA).

Methods

A nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study was conducted including 5285 Italians, aged 15−74 years, who were diagnosed with AIDS between 2006 and 2011. Multiple cause-of-death (MCoD) data, i.e. all conditions reported in death certificates, were retrieved through record-linkage with the National Register of Causes of Death up to 2011. Using MCoD data, sex- and age-standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by dividing the observed number of PWA reporting a specific disease among MCoD to the expected number, estimated on the basis of mortality rates (based on MCoD) of non-PWA.

Results

Among 1229 deceased PWA, CSDs were mentioned in 201 (16.4%) certificates and DM in 46 (3.7%) certificates among the various causes of death. These values corresponded to a 13-fold higher mortality related to CSDs (95% CI 10.8–14.4) and DM (95% CI: 9.5–17.4) as compared to 952,019 deceased non-PWA. Among CSDs, statistically significant excess mortality emerged for hypertension (23 deaths, SMR = 6.3, 95% CI: 4.0–9.4), ischemic heart diseases (39 deaths, SMR = 6.1, 95% CI: 4.4–8.4), other forms of heart diseases (88 deaths, SMR = 13.4, 95% CI: 10.8–16.5), and cerebrovascular diseases (42 deaths, SMR = 13.4, 95% CI: 9.7–18.2). The SMRs were particularly elevated among PWA aged < 50 years and those infected through drug injection.

Conclusions

The use of MCoD data disclosed the fairly high mortality excess related to several CSDs and DM among Italian PWA as compared to non-PWA. Study findings also indicate to start preventive strategies for such diseases at a younger age among AIDS patients than in the general population and with focus on drug users.

Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020

BACKGROUND

Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis.

METHODS

Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software.

RESULTS

In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.

Multiple cause-of-death data among people with AIDS in Italy: a nationwide cross-sectional study

Background

Multiple cause-of-death (MCOD) data allow analyzing the contribution to mortality of conditions reported on the death certificate that are not selected as the underlying cause of death. Using MCOD data, this study aimed to fully describe the cause-specific mortality of people with AIDS (PWA) compared to people without AIDS.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide investigation based on death certificates of 2,515 Italian PWA and 123,224 people without AIDS who had died between 2006 and 2010. The conditions most frequently associated with PWA mortality, compared to people without AIDS, were identified using an age-standardized proportion ratio (ASPR) calculated as the ratio between the age-standardized proportion of a specific cause among PWA and the same proportion among people without AIDS.

Results

The most frequently reported conditions at death among PWA were infectious/parasitic diseases (52%), digestive (36%), respiratory (33%), and circulatory (32%) system diseases, and neoplasms (29%). All AIDS-defining conditions resulted highly associated (ASPR significantly greater than unity) with PWA deaths. Significant associations also emerged for leishmaniasis (ASPR = 188.0), encephalitis/myelitis/encephalomyelitis (ASPR = 14.3), dementia (ASPR = 13.1), chronic viral hepatitis (ASPR = 13.1), liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (ASPR = 4.4), pneumonia (ASPR = 4.4), anal (ASPR = 12.1) and liver (ASPR = 1.9) cancers, and Hodgkin’s disease (ASPR = 3.1).

Conclusions

Study findings identified the contribution of several non-AIDS-defining conditions on PWA mortality, emphasizing the need of preventive public health interventions targeting this population.