Estimated Impact of Nirsevimab on the Incidence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections Requiring Hospital Admission in Children < 1 Year, Weeks 40, 2023, to 8, 2024, Spain

BACKGROUND

Data from the sentinel surveillance system of severe acute respiratory infections in Spain were used to estimate the impact of administration of nirsevimab to children born from 1 April 2023 onwards.

METHODS

Estimated RSV hospitalisations in < 1-year-olds during weeks 40, 2023, to 8, 2024, were compared to the number that would be expected after accounting for the background change in RSV circulation in the 2023/24 season, compared to 2022/23.

RESULTS

We estimated 9364-9875 RSV hospitalisations less than expected, corresponding to a 74%-75% reduction.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023

The SARS-CoV-2 XBB is a group of highly immune-evasive lineages of the Omicron variant of concern that emerged by recombining BA.2-descendent lineages and spread worldwide during 2023. In this study, we combine SARS-CoV-2 genomic data (n = 11,065 sequences) with epidemiological data of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases collected in Brazil between October 2022 and July 2023 to reconstruct the space-time dynamics and epidemiologic impact of XBB dissemination in the country. Our analyses revealed that the introduction and local emergence of lineages carrying convergent mutations within the Spike protein, especially F486P, F456L, and L455F, propelled the spread of XBB* lineages in Brazil. The average relative instantaneous reproduction numbers of XBB* + F486P, XBB* + F486P + F456L, and XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages in Brazil were estimated to be 1.24, 1.33, and 1.48 higher than that of other co-circulating lineages (mainly BQ.1*/BE*), respectively. Despite such a growth advantage, the dissemination of these XBB* lineages had a reduced impact on Brazil's epidemiological scenario concerning previous Omicron subvariants. The peak number of SARI cases from SARS-CoV-2 during the XBB wave was approximately 90%, 80%, and 70% lower than that observed during the previous BA.1*, BA.5*, and BQ.1* waves, respectively. These findings revealed the emergence of multiple XBB lineages with progressively increasing growth advantage, yet with relatively limited epidemiological impact in Brazil throughout 2023. The XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages stand out for their heightened transmissibility, warranting close monitoring in the months ahead.

IMPORTANCE

Brazil was one the most affected countries by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with more than 700,000 deaths by mid-2023. This study reconstructs the dissemination of the virus in the country in the first half of 2023, a period characterized by the dissemination of descendants of XBB.1, a recombinant of Omicron BA.2 lineages evolved in late 2022. The analysis supports that XBB dissemination was marked by the continuous emergence of indigenous lineages bearing similar mutations in key sites of their Spike protein, a process followed by continuous increments in transmissibility, and without repercussions in the incidence of severe cases. Thus, the results suggest that the epidemiological impact of the spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant is influenced by an intricate interplay of factors that extend beyond the virus's transmissibility alone. The study also underlines the need for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance that allows the monitoring of its ever-shifting composition.

Influenza A infections: predictors of disease severity

Influenza affects approximately 10% of the world's population annually. It is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates due to its propensity to progress to severe acute respiratory infection, leading to 10-40% of hospitalized patients needing intensive care. Characterizing the multifactorial predictors of poor prognosis is essential for developing strategies against this disease. This study aimed to identify predictors of disease severity in influenza A-infected (IFA-infected) patients and to propose a prognostic score. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted with 142 IFA-infected out- and inpatients treated at a tertiary hospital between 2010 and 2018. The viral subtypes, hemagglutinin mutations, viral load, IL-28B SNPs, and clinical risk factors were evaluated according to the patient's ICU admission. Multivariate analysis identified the following risk factors for disease severity: neuromuscular diseases (OR = 7.02; 95% CI = 1.18-41.75; p = 0.032), cardiovascular diseases (OR = 5.47; 95% CI = 1.96-15.27; p = 0.001), subtype (H1N1) pdm09 infection (OR = 2.29; 95% CI = 1.02-5.15; p = 0.046), and viral load (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.09-1.88; p = 0.009). The prognosis score for ICU admission is based on these predictors of severity presented and ROC curve AUC = 0.812 (p < 0.0001). Our results identified viral and host predictors of disease severity in IFA-infected patients, yielding a prognostic score that had a high performance in predicting the IFA patients' ICU admission and better results than a viral load value alone. However, its implementation in health services needs to be validated in a broader population.

Simultaneous identification of DNA and RNA pathogens using metagenomic sequencing in cases of severe acute respiratory infection

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) is a valuable technique for identifying pathogens. However, conventional mNGS requires the separate processing of DNA and RNA genomes, which can be resource- and time-intensive. To mitigate these impediments, we propose a novel method called DNA/RNA cosequencing that aims to enhance the efficiency of pathogen detection. DNA/RNA cosequencing uses reverse transcription of total nucleic acids extracted from samples by using random primers, without removing DNA, and then employs mNGS. We applied this method to 85 cases of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI). Influenza virus was identified in 13 cases (H1N1: seven cases, H3N2: three cases, unclassified influenza type: three cases) and was not detected in the remaining 72 samples. Bacteria were present in all samples. Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Acinetobacter baumannii were detected in four influenza-positive samples, suggesting coinfections. The sensitivity and specificity for detecting influenza A virus were 73.33% and 95.92%, respectively. A κ value of 0.726 indicated a high level of concordance between the results of DNA/RNA cosequencing and SARI influenza virus monitoring. DNA/RNA cosequencing enhanced the efficiency of pathogen detection, providing a novel capability to strengthen surveillance and thereby prevent and control infectious disease outbreaks.

Epidemic profile of common respiratory viruses in association SARS CoV-2 among SARI and ARI-two year study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19/SARS CoV-2 continue to pose a threat to human health and placed millions of livelihoods at risk. Surveillance for the other circulating seasonal viruses during this pandemic is necessary to understand the manifestations of the CoV-2 pandemic and their incidence.

METHODS

A detailed study survey was performed on subjects with acute respiratory infections (ARI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in the King Institute of Preventive Medicine and Research, Chennai from April 2020 to March 2022. A total of 1480 patients presenting with either SARI (41.8%) or ARI (58.1%) were screened for SARS CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses. The SARS CoV-2 real-time PCR was carried out using ICMR-approved kits and other respiratory viruses were detected using the commercially available real-time kit.

RESULTS

Out of the 620 SARI patients, 198 (31.9%) were positive for SARS CoV-2 RNA. Out of the 860 ARI patients, 352 (40.9%) were positive for SARS CoV-2 RNA. Among the 550 patients positive for SARS CoV-2, 7 (1.2%) were positive coexistent with other respiratory viruses. Among the 930 patients with negative SARS CoV-2, 222 (23.8%) were positive for other common respiratory viruses (p = 0.001). Influenza viruses (36.9%) predominated followed by RSV (31.9%) and Parainfluenza virus (13.5%).

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that viral coinfections are significantly higher among SARS CoV-2 negative individuals (23.8 vs. 1.2%). It is possibly due to viral interference and the competitive advantage of SARS CoV-2 in modulating the host immunity. Continuous surveillance is necessary for understanding the viral co-infection mechanisms.

Effectiveness of the adapted bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against hospitalisation in individuals aged ≥ 60 years during the Omicron XBB lineage-predominant period: VEBIS SARI VE network, Europe, February to August, 2023

We conducted a multicentre hospital-based test-negative case-control study to measure the effectiveness of adapted bivalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron XBB lineage-predominant period in patients aged ≥ 60 years with severe acute respiratory infection from five countries in Europe. Bivalent vaccines provided short-term additional protection compared with those vaccinated > 6 months before the campaign: from 80% (95% CI: 50 to 94) for 14-89 days post-vaccination, 15% (95% CI: -12 to 35) at 90-179 days, and lower to no effect thereafter.

Characterizing deaths among adult patients with severe acute respiratory infection: during the pre- and COVID-19 pandemic periods in Bangladesh, 2018-2022

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is a leading cause of mortality globally, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed SARI-associated deaths during the pre-and-pandemic periods in Bangladesh to identify the contributing factors.

METHODS

We analyzed data from hospital-based influenza surveillance at nine tertiary-level hospitals in Bangladesh. We considered March 2018-February 2020 as the pre-pandemic period and March 2020-February 2022 as the pandemic period and included adult (≥ 18 years) participants in our study. Surveillance physicians identified WHO-SARI case definition meeting inpatients and collected demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes at hospital discharge and 30 days post-discharge. We performed rRT-PCR for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses on collected nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. We used multivariable Cox's regression models to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) for factors associated with SARI deaths in these adult patients.

RESULTS

We enrolled 4392 SARI patients during the pre-pandemic and 3824 SARI patients during the pandemic period. Case fatality ratio was higher during the pandemic: 13.62% (521) [in-hospital: 6.45% (247); post-discharge: 7.17% (274)] compared to pre-pandemic, 6.01% (264) [in-hospital: 2.01% (89), post-discharge: 4% (175)] (p < 0.001). Pre-pandemic, influenza was detected in 14% (37/264) of SARI deaths. Influenza was detected during the pandemic in 2.3% (12/521), SARS-CoV-2 in 41.8% (218/521), and both viruses in only one SARI death. History of smoking and the presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions independently attributed to SARI deaths in adults in the pre-pandemic period. SARI deaths in such patients were also associated with respiratory difficulties on admission in both pre-pandemic (aHR 2.36; 95% CI:1.65-3.36) and pandemic period (aHR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.57-3.35) after accounting for age, sex, smoking status, presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions, and detection of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, SARI mortality increased; influenza-associated mortality declined, and SARS-CoV-2 caused over a third of SARI deaths. Post-discharge mortality was higher than in-hospital mortality during both periods. Limiting premature discharge and strengthening post-discharge monitoring and nursing services could reduce unexpected deaths. Formative research to better understand post-discharge mortality is essential to reduce SARI deaths.

Dichotomous outcomes vs. survival regression models for identification of predictors of mortality among patients with severe acute respiratory illness during COVID-19 pandemics

Introduction

As the studies predicting mortality in severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) have inferred associations either from dichotomous outcomes or from time-event models, we identified some clinical-epidemiological characteristics and predictors of mortality by comparing and discussing two multivariate models.

Methods

To identify factors associated with death among all SARI hospitalizations occurred in Botucatu (Brazil)/regardless of the infectious agent, and among the COVID-19 subgroup, from March 2020 to 2022, we used a multivariate Poisson regression model with binomial outcomes and Cox proportional hazards (time-event). The performance metrics of both models were also analyzed.

Results

A total of 3,995 hospitalized subjects were included, of whom 1338 (33%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We identified 866 deaths, of which 371 (43%) were due to the COVID-19. In the total number of SARI cases, using both Poisson and Cox models, the predictors of mortality were the presence of neurological diseases, immunosuppression, obesity, older age, and need for invasive ventilation support. However, the Poisson test also revealed that admission to an intensive care unit and the COVID-19 diagnosis were predictors of mortality, with the female gender having a protective effect against death. Likewise, Poisson proved to be more sensitive and specific, and indeed the most suitable model for analyzing risk factors for death in patients with SARI/COVID-19.

Conclusion

Given these results and the acute course of SARI and COVID-19, to compare the associations and their different meanings is essential and, therefore, models with dichotomous outcomes are more appropriate than time-to-event/survival approaches.

External quality assessment for laboratories in pan-India ILI/SARI surveillance for simultaneous detection of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2

Introduction

The Indian Council of Medical Research has set up a nationwide network of 28 laboratories for simultaneous surveillance of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 in ILI/SARI patients, using an in-house developed and validated multiplex real-time RTPCR assay. The aim of this study was to ensure the quality of testing by these laboratories by implementing an external quality assessment program (EQAP).

Methods

For this EQAP, a proficiency test (PT) panel comprising tissue-culture or egg-grown influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 was developed. The PT panel was distributed to all the participant laboratories, which tested the panel and submitted the qualitative results online to the EQAP provider. The performance of the laboratories was evaluated on qualitative criteria but cycle threshold (Ct) values were also gathered for each sample.

Results

On a qualitative basis, all the laboratories achieved the criteria of 90% concordance with the results of the PT panel provider. Ct values of different samples across the laboratories were within ≤ ±3 cycles of the corresponding mean values of the respective sample. The results of this EQAP affirmed the quality and reliability of testing being done for simultaneous surveillance of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 in India.

Pan-India influenza-like illness (ILI) and Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance: epidemiological, clinical and genomic analysis

Background

Over time, COVID-19 testing has significantly declined across the world. However, it is critical to monitor the virus through surveillance. In late 2020, WHO released interim guidance advising the use of the existing Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) for the integrated surveillance of influenza and SARS-CoV-2.

Methods

In July 2021, we initiated a pan-India integrated surveillance for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 through the geographically representative network of Virus Research and Diagnostic Laboratories (VRDLs) across 26 hospital and laboratory sites and 70 community sites. A total of 34,260 cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) and Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) were enrolled from 4 July 2021 to 31 October 2022.

Findings

Influenza A(H3) and B/Victoria dominated during 2021 monsoon season while A(H1N1)pdm09 dominated during 2022 monsoon season. The SARS-CoV-2 "variants of concern" (VoC) Delta and Omicron predominated in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Increased proportion of SARI was seen in extremes of age: 90% cases in < 1 year; 68% in 1 to 5 years and 61% in ≥ 8  years age group. Approximately 40.7% of enrolled cases only partially fulfilled WHO ILI and SARI case definitions. Influenza- and SARS-CoV-2-infected comorbid patients had higher risks of hospitalization, ICU admission, and oxygen requirement.

Interpretation

The results depicted the varying strains and transmission dynamics of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses over time, thus emphasizing the need to continue and expand surveillance across countries for improved decision making. The study also describes important information related to clinical outcomes of ILI and SARI patients and highlights the need to review existing WHO ILI and SARI case definitions.

Lessons learned from identifying clusters of severe acute respiratory infections with influenza sentinel surveillance, Bangladesh, 2009-2020

Background

We explored whether hospital-based surveillance is useful in detecting severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) clusters and how often these events result in outbreak investigation and community mitigation.

Methods

During May 2009-December 2020, physicians at 14 sentinel hospitals prospectively identified SARI clusters (i.e., ≥2 SARI cases who developed symptoms ≤10 days of each other and lived <30 min walk or <3 km from each other). Oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We describe the demographic of persons within clusters, laboratory results, and outbreak investigations.

Results

Field staff identified 464 clusters comprising 1427 SARI cases (range 0-13 clusters per month). Sixty percent of clusters had three, 23% had two, and 17% had ≥4 cases. Their median age was 2 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 0.4-25) and 63% were male. Laboratory results were available for the 464 clusters with a median of 9 days (IQR = 6-13 days) after cluster identification. Less than one in five clusters had cases that tested positive for the same virus: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in 58 (13%), influenza viruses in 24 (5%), human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in five (1%), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) in three (0.6%), adenovirus in two (0.4%). While 102/464 (22%) had poultry exposure, none tested positive for influenza A (H5N1) or A (H7N9). None of the 464 clusters led to field deployments for outbreak response.

Conclusions

For 11 years, none of the hundreds of identified clusters led to an emergency response. The value of this event-based surveillance might be improved by seeking larger clusters, with stronger epidemiologic ties or decedents.

Correcting delayed reporting of COVID-19 using the generalized-Dirichlet-multinomial method

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast and forecast cases or deaths. We discuss the four key sources of systematic and random variability in available data for COVID-19 and other diseases, and critically evaluate current state-of-the-art methods with respect to appropriately separating and capturing this variability. We propose a general hierarchical approach to correcting delayed reporting of COVID-19 and apply this to daily English hospital deaths, resulting in a flexible prediction tool which could be used to better inform pandemic decision-making. We compare this approach to competing models with respect to theoretical flexibility and quantitative metrics from a 15-month rolling prediction experiment imitating a realistic operational scenario. Based on consistent leads in predictive accuracy, bias, and precision, we argue that this approach is an attractive option for correcting delayed reporting of COVID-19 and future epidemics.

Protocol for establishing a model for integrated influenza surveillance in Tamil Nadu, India

The potential for influenza viruses to cause public health emergencies is great. The World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2005 concluded that the world was unprepared to respond to an influenza pandemic. Available surveillance guidelines for pandemic influenza lack the specificity that would enable many countries to establish operational surveillance plans. A well-designed epidemiological and virological surveillance is required to strengthen a country's capacity for seasonal, novel, and pandemic influenza detection and prevention. Here, we describe the protocol to establish a novel mechanism for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in the four identified districts of Tamil Nadu, India. This project will be carried out as an implementation research. Each district will identify one medical college and two primary health centres (PHCs) as sentinel sites for collecting severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and influenza like illness (ILI) related information, respectively. For virological testing, 15 ILI and 10 SARI cases will be sampled and tested for influenza A, influenza B, and SARS-CoV-2 every week. Situation analysis using the WHO situation analysis tool will be done to identify the gaps and needs in the existing surveillance systems. Training for staff involved in disease surveillance will be given periodically. To enhance the reporting of ILI/SARI for sentinel surveillance, trained project staff will collect information from all ILI/SARI patients attending the sentinel sites using pre-tested tools. Using time, place, and person analysis, alerts for abnormal increases in cases will be generated and communicated to health authorities to initiate response activities. Advanced epidemiological analysis will be used to model influenza trends over time. Integrating virological and epidemiological surveillance data with advanced analysis and timely communication can enhance local preparedness for public health emergencies. Good quality surveillance data will facilitate an understanding outbreak severity and disease seasonality. Real-time data will help provide early warning signals for prevention and control of influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks. The implementation strategies found to be effective in this project can be scaled up to other parts of the country for replication and integration.

Implementation of a Surveillance System for Severe Acute Respiratory Infections at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Austria: Protocol for a Retrospective Longitudinal Feasibility Study

BACKGROUND

The risk of a large number of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases emerging is a global concern. SARI can overwhelm the health care capacity and cause several deaths. Therefore, the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety will explore the feasibility of implementing an automatic electronically based SARI surveillance system at a tertiary care hospital in Austria as part of the hospital network, initiated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to investigate the availability of routinely collected health record data pertaining to respiratory infections and the optimal approach to use such available data for systematic surveillance of SARI in a real-world setting, describe the characteristics of patients with SARI before and after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, and investigate the feasibility of identifying the risk factors for a severe outcome (intensive care unit admission or death) in patients with SARI.

METHODS

We will test the feasibility of a surveillance system, as part of a large European network, at a tertiary care hospital in the province of Lower Austria (called Regional Hospital Wiener Neustadt). It will be a cross-sectional study for the inventory of the electronic data records and implementation of automatic data retrieval for the period of January 2019 through the end of December 2022. The analysis will include an exploration of the database structure, descriptive analysis of the general characteristics of the patients with SARI, estimation of the SARI incidence rate, and assessment of the risk factors and different levels of severity of patients with SARI using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

This will be the first study to assess the feasibility of SARI surveillance at a large 800-bed tertiary care hospital in Austria. It will provide a general overview of the potential for establishing a hospital-based surveillance system for SARI. In addition, if successful, the electronic surveillance will be able to improve the response to early warning signs of new SARI, which will better inform policy makers in strengthening the surveillance system.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings will support the expansion of the SARI hospital-based surveillance system to other hospitals in Austria. This network will be of use to Austria in preparing for future pandemics.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/47547.

Viral Coinfection of Children Hospitalized with Severe Acute Respiratory Infections during COVID-19 Pandemic

The main pathogens of severe respiratory infection in children are respiratory viruses, and the current molecular technology allows for a rapid and simultaneous detection of a wide spectrum of these viral pathogens, facilitating the diagnosis and evaluation of viral coinfection.

METHODS

This study was conducted between March 2020 and December 2021. All children admitted to the ICU with a diagnosis of SARI and who were tested by polymerase chain reaction on nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 and other common respiratory viral pathogens were included in the study.

RESULTS

The result of the viral panel identified 446 children, with one infected with a single virus and 160 co-infected with two or more viruses. This study employed descriptive analyses, where a total of twenty-two coinfections among SARI-causing viruses were identified. Thus, the five most frequent coinfections that were selected for the study are: hRV/SARS-CoV-2 (17.91%), hRV/RSV (14.18%), RSV/SARS-CoV-2 (12.69%), hRV/BoV (10.45%), and hRV/AdV (8.21%). The most significant age group was 38.1%, representing patients aged between 24 and 59 months (61 individuals). Patients older than 59 months represented a total of 27.5%, comprising forty-four patients. The use of oxygen therapy was statistically significant in coinfections with Bocavirus, other CoVs, Metapneumovirus, and RSV. Coinfections with SARS-CoV-2 and the other different coinfections presented a similar time of use of oxygen therapy with a value of (p > 0.05). In the year 2020, hRV/BoV was more frequent in relation to other types of coinfections, representing a total of 35.1%. The year 2021 presented a divergent profile, with hRV/SARS-CoV-2 coinfection being the most frequent (30.8%), followed by hRV/RSV (28.2%). Additionally, 25.6% and 15.4% represented coinfections between RSV/SARS-CoV-2 and hRV/AdV, respectively. We saw that two of the patients coinfected with hRV/SARS-CoV-2 died, representing 9.52% of all deaths in the study. In addition, both hRV/hBoV and hRV/RSV had death records for each case, representing 8.33% and 6.67% of all deaths, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Coinfections with respiratory viruses, such as RSV and hBoV, can increase the severity of the disease in children with SARI who are admitted to the ICU, and children infected with SARS-CoV-2 have their clinical condition worsened when they have comorbidities.

Factors associated with poor outcomes in patients with severe acute respiratory infections in Bahrain

Background

Severe acute respiratory tract infection (SARI) is a major global health threat. This study aimed to examine risk factors associated with poor outcomes in patients with SARI.

Methods

All patients who met World Health Organization's (WHO) SARI case definition and were admitted to Salmaniya Medical Complex from January 2018 to December 2021 were included. Epidemiological and virological data were obtained and analyzed.

Results

Of 1159 patients with SARI included, 731 (63.1%) patients were below 50 years, and 357 (30.8%) tested positive for viral pathogens. The most prevalent virus was Flu-A (n = 134, 37.5%), SARS-CoV2 (n = 118, 33%), RSV (n = 51, 14.3%), Flu B (n = 49,13.7%), other viruses (n = 3, 0.8%), and combined infection (n = 2, 0.6%). Six hundred fifty-eight (56.8%) patients had comorbidities, mainly diabetes (n = 284, 43%) and heart disease (n = 217, 33%). 183 (16%) patients were admitted to ICU, 110 (9%) needed mechanical ventilation, and 80 (7%) patients died.The odds of ICU admission were higher for patients with hematological (OR 5.9, 95% CI 3.1-11.1) and lung diseases (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6-4.6). The odds of mechanical ventilation were higher among patients with lung disease (OR 3.1, 95% 1.7-5.5). The mortality odds were higher among patients above 50 (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-4.1) and chronic kidney disease (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.2).

Conclusions

Being 50 years or above or having kidney, lung, or heart diseases was associated with worse SARI outcomes. Efforts and actions in developing better strategies to vaccinate individuals at high risk and early diagnosis and treatment should help in reducing the burden of SARI.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibodies for respiratory syncytial virus in Kenya and South Africa

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data.

METHODS

We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5-50 USD for MV, 10-125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation.

RESULTS

Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF's GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.

COVID-19 and Severe Acute Respiratory Infections: Monitoring Trends in 421 German Hospitals During the First Four Pandemic Waves

Introduction

Reliable surveillance systems to monitor trends of COVID-19 case numbers and the associated healthcare burden play a central role in efficient pandemic management. In Germany, the federal government agency Robert-Koch-Institute uses an ICD-code-based inpatient surveillance system, ICOSARI, to assess temporal trends of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and COVID-19 hospitalization numbers. In a similar approach, we present a large-scale analysis covering four pandemic waves derived from the Initiative of Quality Medicine (IQM), a German-wide network of acute care hospitals.

Methods

Routine data from 421 hospitals for the years 2019-2021 with a "pre-pandemic" period (01-01-2019 to 03-03-2020) and a "pandemic" period (04-03-2020 to 31-12-2021) was analysed. SARI cases were defined by ICD-codes J09-J22 and COVID-19 by ICD-codes U07.1 and U07.2. The following outcomes were analysed: intensive care treatment, mechanical ventilation, in-hospital mortality.

Results

Over 1.1 million cases of SARI and COVID-19 were identified. Patients with COVID-19 and additional codes for SARI were at higher risk for adverse outcomes when compared to non-COVID SARI and COVID-19 without any coding for SARI. During the pandemic period, non-COVID SARI cases were associated with 28%, 23% and 27% higher odds for intensive care treatment, mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality, respectively, compared to pre-pandemic SARI.

Conclusion

The nationwide IQM network could serve as an excellent data source to enhance COVID-19 and SARI surveillance in view of the ongoing pandemic. Future developments of COVID-19/SARI case numbers and associated outcomes should be closely monitored to identify specific trends, especially considering novel virus variants.

Epidemiology of Non-SARS-CoV2 Human Coronaviruses (HCoVs) in People Presenting with Influenza-like Illness (ILI) or Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) in Senegal from 2012 to 2020

In addition to emerging coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, MERS, SARS-CoV-2), there are seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs): HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-HKU1. With a wide distribution around the world, HCoVs are usually associated with mild respiratory disease. In the elderly, young children and immunocompromised patients, more severe or even fatal respiratory infections may be observed. In Africa, data on seasonal HCoV are scarce. This retrospective study investigated the epidemiology and genetic diversity of seasonal HCoVs during nine consecutive years of influenza-like illness surveillance in Senegal. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from ILI outpatients or from SARI hospitalized patients. HCoVs were diagnosed by qRT-PCR and the positive samples were selected for molecular characterization. Among 9337 samples tested for HCoV, 406 (4.3%) were positive: 235 (57.9%) OC43, 102 (25.1%) NL63, 58 (14.3%) 229E and 17 (4.2%) HKU1. The four types circulated during the study period and a peak was noted between November and January. Children under five were the most affected. Co-infections were observed between HCoV types (1.2%) or with other viruses (76.1%). Genetically, HCoVs types showed diversity. The results highlighted that the impact of HCoVs must be taken into account in public health; monitoring them is therefore particularly necessary both in the most sensitive populations and in animals.

Changes in the Epidemiology of Respiratory Pathogens in Children during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant decrease in non-COVID-19 respiratory illnesses were observed, suggesting that the implementation of measures against COVID-19 affected the transmission of other respiratory pathogens. The aim of this study was to highlight the changes in the epidemiology of respiratory pathogens in children during the COVID-19 pandemic. All children with Severe Acute respiratory illness admitted to the pediatric departments between January 2018 and December 2021 with negative COVID-19 PCR, were enrolled. The detection of respiratory pathogens was made by the Film Array Respiratory Panel. A total of 902 respiratory specimens were tested. A significantly lower positivity rate during the COVID-19 period was found (p = 0.006), especially in infants under 6 months (p = 0.008). There was a substantial absence of detection of Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Influenza A during the winter season following the outbreak of the pandemic (p < 0.05; p = 0.002 respectively). An inter-seasonal resurgence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus was noted. Human Rhinovirus was detected throughout the year, and more prevalent in winter during COVID-19 (p = 0.0002). These changes could be explained by the impact of the implementation of preventive measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in children.

Comparison of clinical characteristics and outcome in RT-PCR positive and false-negative RT-PCR for COVID-19: A Retrospective analysis

Cases with SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR negative pneumonia are an understudied group with uncertainty remaining regarding their treatment approach. We aimed to compare the clinical and radiological characteristics of RT-PCR positive and clinically diagnosed RT-PCR negative COVID-19. This was a single-centre retrospective study conducted at a tertiary care hospital in Western India. All patients (age ≥18 years) with suspicion of COVID-19 with SARI (severe acute respiratory infections) who were subjected to RT-PCR testing (nasal/oropharyngeal swab) were included. Based on RTPCR results, patients were categorized and compared for demographic, clinical, and biochemical characteristics and outcomes. Out of 500 patients, 339 (67.8%) found RT-PCR positive. Except for the radiological findings, both groups differ in clinical presentation, disease severity (inflammatory markers), and outcome. RT-PCR-positive patients had raised ferritin, NLR (Neutrophil-Lymphocyte ratio), LDH, and high mortality compared to the swab-negative group. In-hospital mortality was also significantly high in RT-PCR positive group (HR=1.9, 95% CI=1.4-2.5, p=0.001). On multivariate analysis, NLR, ferritin, and d-dimer were the independent predictors of mortality in RT-PCR-positive (p=0.038, 0.054, and 0.023). At the same time, raised TLC (total leukocyte count) and procalcitonin were the risk factors for poor outcomes in RT-PCR-negative patients (p=0.041 and 0.038). We found significantly raised ferritin, NLR, and LDH levels and increased mortality in RT-PCR positive patients compared to RT-PCR negative. Incorporating clinical features, radiological, and biochemical parameters could be prudent while managing the RT-PCR-negative patients.

Influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections among children under five years old in Morocco, September 2017 to March 2019

The main aim of this research is to investigate the trend of influenza infection among children under 5 years with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) as well as those who suffer from a high burden of disease. This research is based on a survey conducted from September 2017 to March 2019. During this period nasopharyngeal swabs were collected in a group of 942 children under 5 years with SARI, admitted in pediatric services of 8 sentinel hospitals. The virological surveillance of influenza was carried out at the National influenza Center, located in the National Institute of Hygiene, using a Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRt-PCR) monoplex assay developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC; Atlanta, GA). The median age of participants was 11 months, and 40% of them were female. A total of 112 samples were reported positive yielding a frequency of 11.88% (112/942). Among all the influenza confirmed cases, 68.75% (77/112), 15.17% (17/112), 16.04% (18/112) were subtyped as influenza AH1N1pdm09, AH3N2 and influenza B respectively. Meanwhile, the proportion of patients admitted at the intensive care unit was 5,35% (6/112). Out of which 83.33% (5/6) were AH1N1pdm09 and it was reported that just 1.78% (2/112) of the positive cases were vaccinated. The study confirms that influenza affects greatly children with SARI. Thus, the need for influenza vaccines is highly recommended for children under 5 years. Moreover, our findings highlight that influenza virus is not the only cause of SARI among this group of children. Accordingly, special attention should be paid to the non-flu respiratory viruses.

Burden of Hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Germany

Background

Avoiding in-hospital transmissions has been crucial in the COVID-19 pandemic. Little is known on the extent to which hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 variants have caused infections in Germany.

Aim

To analyse the occurrence and the outcomes of HAI with regard to different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Methods

Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections hospitalized between March 1^st, 2020 and May 17^th, 2022 in 79 hospitals of the Helios Group were included. Information on patients' characteristics and outcomes were retrieved from claims data. In accordance with the Robert Koch Institute, infections were classified as hospital-acquired when tested positive >6 days after admission and if no information hinted at a different source.

Findings

In all, 62,875 SARS-CoV-2 patients were analysed, of whom 10.6% had HAI. HAIs represented 14.7% of SARS-CoV-2 inpatients during the Wildtype period, 3.5% during Alpha (odds ratio: 0.21; 95% confidence interval: 0.19–0.24), 8.8% during Delta (2.70; 2.35–3.09) and 10.1% during Omicron (1.10; 1.03–1.19). When age and comorbidities were accounted for, HAI had lower odds for death than community-acquired infections (0.802; 0.740–0.866). Compared to the Wildtype period, HAIs during Omicron were associated with lower odds for ICU (0.78; 0.69–0.88), ventilation (0.47; 0.39–0.56), and death (0.33; 0.28–0.40).

Conclusion

Hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred throughout the pandemic, affecting highly vulnerable patients. Although transmissibility increased with newer variants, the proportion of HAIs decreased, indicating improved infection prevention and/or the effect of immunization. Furthermore, the Omicron period was associated with improved outcomes. However, the burden of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections remains high.

Clinical and epidemiological aspects of severe acute respiratory infection: before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Widespread respiratory infections with high morbidity rates caused by respiratory viruses represent a significant global public health problem. Our objective was to describe cases and deaths from severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Brazil over the past 8 y as well as changes in the distribution and risk of illness and death from SARI before and in the first year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (FYP).

METHODS

We performed a descriptive epidemiological study of hospitalized SARI cases and deaths between 2013 and 2020 in Brazil, separated into pre-pandemic (2013 to 2019) and FYP (2020). We estimate the increase in SARI cases and deaths in the FYP as well as the mortality and infection risks attributable to the FYP (MRAP and IRAP, respectively).

RESULTS

In 2020, an excess of 425 054 cases and 109 682 deaths was observed, with a significant increase in the risk of falling ill and dying from SARI, with an IRAP of 200.06 and an MRAP of 51.68 cases per 100 000 inhabitants. The increase in SARI cases and deaths was particularly prominent among patients with COVID-19, the elderly, males, those self-identifying as mixed race and patients with heart disease and diabetes. We conclude that an important increase in morbidity and mortality due to SARI was observed in the FYP. More vulnerable groups and those living in the Southeast, North and Center-West regions of the country suffered the most.

Respiratory viral infections other than SARS CoV-2 among the North Indian patients presenting with acute respiratory illness during the first COVID-19 wave

Acute respiratory infections due to viral or bacterial etiology can cause 60 deaths per one lakh population. Viral etiology is more common as compared to bacterial, but lack of definite diagnosis leads to increased usage of empirical antibiotics. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a need to identify co-infections especially in severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients to identify it as one of the cofactors for increased severity of illness and to identify the causative agents in COVID-19 negative individuals. The SARS CoV-2 real time PCR was carried out using ICMR approved kits and the other respiratory viruses were detected using the multiplex commercially available real time  kit. A total of 186 patients presenting with either SARI (89.8%) or influenza like illness (10.2%) were included in the study. Out of these, 43 (23.1%) were positive for SARS CoV-2 RNA and 2 (4.6%) patients with SARI showed concomitant infection with either human rhinovirus or human respiratory syncytial virus . Out of 143 patients negative for SARS CoV-2, 35 (24.5%) were positive for one or more microbial infections and 28 (19.6%) infected with other respiratory viral infection most common being human rhinovirus. The results suggest that viral coinfections are significantly higher among COVID-19 negative individuals (24.5% vs 4.6%) presenting with respiratory illness as compared to COVID-19 positive individuals possibly due to viral interference and competitive advantage of SARS-CoV-2 in modulating the host immunity. Further detailed research is required for the understanding of mechanisms of viral co-infection.

Influenza circulating viruses, positivity rate and risk factors for influenza associated severe acute respiratory infection during 2018/2019 winter season, Yemen

BACKGROUND

The burden of seasonal influenza in conflict counties is exacerbated due to limited resource and collapse of health system. During 2018 /2019 season, two-fold increase in the incidence of influenza was reported in Yemen with 22% case fatality of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). The aims are to analyze the influenza circulating viruses, positivity rate and risk factors for hospitalizing influenza associated-SARI.

METHODOLOGY

We used a retrospective analytical study based on surveillance data. All reported patients during 2018/2019 season, fulfilling the WHO cases definition for SARI or influenza like illness (ILI), and had laboratory result from the National Laboratory were included. Influenza positivity rate was calculated, all SARI and ILI patients with positive influenza were included for further analysis by univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Crude and adjusted Odds ratio (AOR), 95% confidence interval and P-value < 0.05 were used for statistically significant.

RESULTS

Out of 2186 patients enrolled, 768 patients were tested for influenza viruses,: 19% were children < 15 years, 15% were ≥ 65 years, 69% males and 18% had co-morbidity with chronic diseases. Patients with SARI were 37% and 63% were ILI patients. Influenza viruses were detected in 411 (53.5%), 68% were influenza A subtype (H1N1)pdm09, 27% influenza B and 5% was influenza A not subtyped. The influenza positivity was significantly higher in SARI compared to ILI for patients < 15 years (95% vs, 66%, p < 0.001), and patients ≥ 65 years (83% vs. 56%, p < 0.002), respectively. The highest positivity for influenza type A and B reached 44% and 33% for patients ≥ 65 years and < 15 years, respectively. The risk factors for influenza-associated SARI in multivariate analysis included age < 5 [AOR 2.8] and ≥ 65 years old [AOR 3.1] compared to age 5- < 25 years, diabetes [AOR 4.7], heart diseases [AOR 3.1] and chronic respiratory diseases [AOR 5.0].

CONCLUSION

The influenza positivity during 2018/2019 winter season was high in Yemen and varied by age distribution. Influenza subtype A (H1N1) pdm09 was the predominant and co circulated with influenza B. An influenza vaccination program for the risk group is necessary. Strengthening lab capacity to detect respiratory pathogens and further prospective study for more comprehensive picture are recommended.

Do children with severe acute respiratory infection need cohorting & isolation before screening for COVID-19?

This retrospective analysis was done to ascertain the SARS-CoV-2-positivity rate in children (0-12 yr) with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and compare it to those without SARI to determine the need for running a dedicated SARI isolation facility for paediatric COVID-19 care. The case records of 8780 children (0-12 yr) admitted and/or tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June 2020 and May 2021 at a tertiary care centre in north India were analyzed. The overall SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription (RT)-PCR positivity rate was 3.0 per cent (262/8780). There were 1155 (13.15%) children with SARI. Fifty of these 1155 (4.3%) children with SARI, as against 212 of the 7625 (2.8%) children without SARI, tested positive for COVID-19. The absolute difference in the positivity rate among SARI and non-SARI groups was only 1.54 per cent which translates to cohorting and isolating 65 children with SARI to pick up one extra SARS-CoV-2-positive child (compared to those without SARI). The positive predictive value of SARI as a screening test was 4.3 per cent. Our findings suggest that isolation of children with SARI as a transmission-prevention strategy for COVID-19 may not be required. This is particularly relevant in resource-limited settings.

SARI inhibits growth and reduces survival of oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) by inducing endoplasmic reticulum stress

AIMS

SARI (suppressor of activator protein (AP)-1, regulated by interferon (IFN) was identified as a novel tumor suppressor by applying subtraction hybridization to terminally differentiating human melanoma cells. The anti-tumor activity of SARI and the correlation between expression and cancer aggression and metastasis has been examined in multiple cancers, but its potential role in oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) has not been explored.

METHODS

SARI expression was monitored in tumor tissues of OSCC patients by performing immunohistochemistry. Ectopic expression of SARI was achieved using a replication defective adenovirus expressing SARI (Ad.SARI). A nude mouse xenograft model was used to evaluate the in vivo efficacy of SARI. Endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress was monitored in SARI infected OSCC cells by confocal microscopy.

KEY FINDING

In this study, we demonstrate that SARI expression is significantly lower in OSCC tumor tissue as compared to normal adjacent tissue. Ectopic expression of SARI induces cancer-specific cell death in human OSCC cell lines and in a paclitaxel plus cisplatin non-responder OSCC patient-derived (PDC1) cell line. Mechanistically, SARI inhibits zinc finger protein GLI1 expression through induction of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress. Using a nude mouse xenograft model, we show that intratumoral injections of Ad.SARI significantly reduce PDC1 tumor burden, whereas treatment with an ER stress inhibitor efficiently rescues tumors from growth inhibition.

SIGNIFICANCE

Overall, our data provides a link between induction of ER stress and inhibition of the GLI1/Hedgehog signaling pathway and the tumor suppressive activity of SARI in the context of OSCC.

Poor Vaccine Effectiveness against Influenza B-Related Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in a Temperate North Indian State (2019-2020): A Call for Further Data for Possible Vaccines with Closer Match

Background: Influenza vaccine uptake in India is poor, and scant data exist regarding the effectiveness of influenza vaccine against hospitalization. Methods: From October 2019 to March 2020, vaccination status of 1219 patients (males n = 571, aged 5–107 years; median, 50 years) hospitalized with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) was assessed. The patients were tested for influenza viruses and their subtypes by RT PCR. Sequencing of the HA gene was performed. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza subtypes was estimated by the test negative design. Results: A total of 336 (27.5%) patients were influenza-positive, with influenza B/Victoria accounting for 49.7% (n = 167), followed by influenza A/H1N1 (47.6%; n = 155) and influenza A/H3N2 (4.4%; n = 15). About 6.8% and 8.6% of the influenza-positive and influenza-negative patients, respectively, had been vaccinated. Adjusted VE for any influenza strain was 13% (95% CI −42 to 47), which for influenza B was 0%. HA sequencing revealed that influenza B samples mainly belonged to subclade V1A.3/133R with deletion of residues 163–165, as against the 2-aa deletion in influenza B/Colorado/06/2017 strain, contained in the vaccine. VE for influenza A/H1N1 was 55%. Conclusions: Poor VE due to a genetic mismatch between the circulating strain and the vaccine strain calls for efforts to reduce the mismatch.

Characteristics of the delayed respiratory syncytial virus epidemic, 2020/2021, Rhône Loire, France

The Rhône-Loire metropolitan areas' 2020/21 respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic was delayed following the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), compared with previous seasons. Very severe lower respiratory tract infection incidence among infants ≤ 3 months decreased twofold, the proportion of cases among children aged > 3 months to 5 years increased, and cases among adults > 65 years were markedly reduced. NPI appeared to reduce the RSV burden among at-risk groups, and should be promoted to minimise impact of future RSV outbreaks.

How many more? Under-reporting of the COVID-19 deaths in Brazil in 2020

Objective

To evaluate the magnitude of under‐reporting the number of deaths due to COVID‐19 in Brazil in 2020, previously shown to occur due to low rate of laboratory testing for SARS‐CoV‐2, reporting delay, inadequate access to medical care, and its poor quality, leading to the low sensitivity of epidemiological surveillance and poor outcomes, often without laboratory confirmation of the cause of death.

Methods

Excess mortality due to COVID‐19 was estimated directly based on various data sources, and indirectly, based on the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths from serious acute respiratory infection (SARI) and all‐natural causes in 2020 had there been no COVID‐19. The absence of laboratory testing for SARS‐CoV‐2 was adjusted based on the proportion of those who tested positive among the tested individuals whose death was attributed to COVID‐19. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) were used to improve prediction of likely mortality without COVID‐19 in 2020.

Results

Under‐reporting of COVID‐19 deaths was 22.62%, with a corresponding mortality rate per 100 000 inhabitants of 115 by the direct method, 71–76 by the indirect methods based on the excess SARI mortality and 95–104 by excess mortality due to natural causes. COVID‐19 was the third cause of mortality that contributed directly with 18%, and indirectly with additional 10–11% to all deaths in Brazil in 2020.

Conclusions

Underestimation of COVID‐19 mortality between 1:5 and 1:4 is likely its lower bound. Timely and accurate surveillance of death causes is of the essence to evaluate the COVID‐19 burden.

High genotypic diversity of Rhinoviruses obtained from Tunisian children with severe acute respiratory infection

INTRODUCTION

Rhinoviruses (HRV) are among the leading causes of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI). Their burden and genetic diversity vary from one region to another and little is known in Northern African regions. This study describes epidemiological patterns and genotypic diversity of HRV in SARI cases during a two and half year's study, in Northern Tunisia.

METHODOLOGY

A total of 271 SARI cases, admitted into the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit of Bechir Hamza Children's Hospital in Tunis, were collected between September 2015 and December 2017. The investigation concerned 104 samples positive for HRV and/or HEV (Human Enterovirus) obtained among these cases. Specific HRV and HEV detections were assessed by real-time PCRs. The HRV molecular typing was based on the VP4-VP2 genomic region analyses.

RESULTS

Among the viral SARI cases, 33.5% and 12.3% were positive for HRV and HEV respectively. Molecular investigations showed high prevalence of HRV-A (63.3%) followed by HRV-C (30.6%) and HRV-B (6.1%) and high genotypic diversity with 27 types. HRV cases were mostly detected in toddlers younger than 6 months. A total of 16 cases (28%) were found with bacterial and/or viral co-infection. HRV-C infection and HRV-A with bacterial co-infection were associated with complicated infection. Some of the detected types showed a continuous circulation or turnover during an extended period. HRV-A101 and HRV-C45 were the most frequently detected types.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed, for the first time, the high HRV diversity in Tunisia, a North-African region. Specific phylogenetic investigations may help to evaluate their diversity and to trace their spread and epidemiological origin.

Comparing COVID-19 and Influenza Presentation and Trajectory

Background: COVID-19 is a newly recognized illness with a predominantly respiratory presentation. It is important to characterize the differences in disease presentation and trajectory between COVID-19 patients and other patients with common respiratory illnesses. These differences can enhance knowledge of pathogenesis and help in guiding treatment. Methods: Data from electronic medical records were obtained from individuals admitted with respiratory illnesses to Rambam Health Care Campus, Haifa, Israel, between October 1st, 2014 and October 1st, 2020. Four groups of patients were defined: COVID-19 (693), influenza (1,612), severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) (2,292), and Others (4,054). The variable analyzed include demographics (7), vital signs (8), lab tests (38), and comorbidities (15) from a total of 8,651 hospitalized adult patients. Statistical analysis was performed on biomarkers measured at admission and for their disease trajectory in the first 48 h of hospitalization, and on comorobidity prevalence. Results: COVID-19 patients were overall younger in age and had higher body mass index, compared to influenza and SARI. Comorbidity burden was lower in the COVID-19 group compared to influenza and SARI. Severely- and moderately-ill COVID-19 patients older than 65 years of age suffered higher rate of in-hospital mortality compared to hospitalized influenza patients. At admission, white blood cells and neutrophils were lower among COVID-19 patients compared to influenza and SARI patients, while pulse rate and lymphoctye percentage were higher. Trajectories of variables during the first 2 days of hospitalization revealed that white blood count, neutrophils percentage and glucose in blood increased among COVID-19 patients, while decreasing among other patients. Conclusions: The intrinsic virulence of COVID-19 appeared higher than influenza. In addition, several critical functions, such as immune response, coagulation, heart and respiratory function, and metabolism were uniquely affected by COVID-19.

Estimation of COVID-19 Under-Reporting in the Brazilian States Through SARI

Due to its impact, COVID-19 has been stressing the academy to search for curing, mitigating, or controlling it. It is believed that under-reporting is a relevant factor in determining the actual mortality rate and, if not considered, can cause significant misinformation. Therefore, this work aims to estimate the under-reporting of cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Brazilian states using data from the InfoGripe. InfoGripe targets notifications of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI). The methodology is based on the combination of data analytics (event detection methods) and time series modeling (inertia and novelty concepts) over hospitalized SARI cases. The estimate of real cases of the disease, called novelty, is calculated by comparing the difference in SARI cases in 2020 (after COVID-19) with the total expected cases in recent years (2016-2019). The expected cases are derived from a seasonal exponential moving average. The results show that under-reporting rates vary significantly between states and that there are no general patterns for states in the same region in Brazil. The states of Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso have the highest rates of under-reporting of cases. The rate of under-reporting of deaths is high in the Rio Grande do Sul and the Minas Gerais. This work can be highlighted for the combination of data analytics and time series modeling. Our calculation of under-reporting rates based on SARI is conservative and better characterized by deaths than for cases.

Managing pregnancy in COVID-19 pandemic: A review article

The outbreak Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory tract infection caused by a highly contagious and lethal beta coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which has spread fast to encroach the entire globe and hence declare pandemic. Pregnancy alters body physiology and immune systems, can have worse effects of some respiratory infections and due to limited research and published data we still are in dilemma of appropriate management guidelines This article covers the updated guidelines for infection prevention and control (IPC), screening, sampling, antenatal visit schedules, risk scoring, triaging, supportive care, delivery, postpartum care and care of the newborn. This article aims to provide up-to-date information as per recent guidelines of various association which would serve as guidance in managing pregnant women and newborn with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. All the published papers till date, NCPRE, WHO Interim guidelines, RCOG, FOGS GCPRI, Medical Council of India, ICMR, MOFHW, CDC, ACOG guidelines are referred to compile this article to reach to a conclusion of evidence based management of pregnant ladies during COVID-19 pandemic. This article covers the not only infection prevention and control (IPC) guidelines, but also screening and sampling guidelines, antenatal visit schedules, risk scoring, triaging but also in-patient supportive care, delivery, postpartum care and care of the newborn. Data are very limited and hence very difficult to accurately define clinical management strategies and needs to be constantly updated.

A learning experience of pandemic COVID-19 management at our medical institute

Background:

Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel disease.

Objectives:

Our healthcare sector is at the epicentre of this unprecedented global pandemic challenge and we are not fully aware of it's management. Here we have discussed our learning experience in managing and tackling the COVID-19 pandemic at our institute which will set an example for other hospitals as well as instill confidence in our primary care physicians who are the frontline warriors.

Methods and Results:

For combating COVID-19, dedicated teams for its management including logistic support was streamlined. Our capacity was built up for 200 isolation beds including 40 ventilator equipped beds and 645 defined quarantine rooms, to be implemented in phased manner. Till date more than 200 COVID-19 patients have been admitted here. Fever and cough were common presentations. Mortality was high in patients with advanced age or who had multiple co-morbid conditions. Efficient training and infection prevention control have resulted in a satisfactory outcome.

Conclusion:

In the wake of this pandemic all hospital setup, with collective responsibility should follow a specified protocol so that our hospital is not converted to the hotspot. COVID-19 has imposed a new challenge where not only patients have to be managed but our health care workers also need to be protected. Telemedicine and our primary care physicians will play a crucial role. Here at a medical institute, medical teaching, and learning atmosphere has to be created amidst the pandemic apprehension for our budding medicos.

Moderate Vaccine Effectiveness against Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Caused by A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Virus and No Effectiveness against A(H3N2) Influenza Virus in the 2018/2019 Season in Italy

Every season, circulating influenza viruses change; therefore, vaccines must be reformulated each year. We aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe influenza infection for the 2018/19 season in Italy. We conducted a test-negative design case-control study at five Italian hospitals. We estimated influenza VE against severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) requiring hospitalisation overall, and by virus subtype, vaccine brand, and age. The 2018/19 season was characterised by A(H1N1)pmd09 and A(H3N2) influenza viruses. Vaccine coverage among <18 years recruited SARI cases was very low (3.2%). Seasonal vaccines were moderately effective against type A influenza overall (adjusted VE = 40.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 18.7–56.4%) and subtype A(H1N1)pmd09 viruses (adjusted VE = 55%; 95% CI = 34.5–69.1%), but ineffective against subtype A(H3N2) viruses (adjusted VE = 2.5%; 95% CI = −50.0–36.7%). Both Fluad and Fluarix Tetra vaccines were effective against type A influenza overall and subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. VE appeared to be similar across age groups (0–64 years, ≥65 years). Seasonal influenza vaccines in the 2018/19 season were moderately effective in preventing SARI caused by A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza but ineffective against A(H3N2).

COVID-19: The Influence of ACE Genotype and ACE-I and ARBs on the Course of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Elderly Patients

Since the beginning of 2020, the whole world has been struggling with the pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The SARS-CoV-2 infection depends on ACE2, TMPRSS2, and CD147, which are expressed on host cells. Several studies suggest that some single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of ACE2 might be a risk factor of COVID-19 infection. Genotypes affect ACE2 structure, its serum concentration, and levels of circulating angiotensin (1-7). Moreover, there is evidence that ACE genotype affects the outcomes of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) treatment, the most severe consequence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. COVID-19 morbidity, infection course, and mortality might depend on ACE D allele frequency. The aim of this narrative review was to analyze and identify the mechanisms of ACE-I and ARBs with particular emphasis on angiotensin receptors and their polymorphism in the light of COVID-19 pandemic as these medications are commonly prescribed to elderly patients. There is no direct evidence yet for ACE-I or ARBs in the treatment of COVID-19. However, for those already taking these medications, both the European Society of Cardiology and the American College of Cardiology recommend continuing the treatment, because at present, there is no clear clinical or scientific evidence to justify the discontinuation of ACE-I or ARBs. Individualized treatment decisions should be based on the clinical condition and co-morbidities of each patient.

COVID-19: The Potential Treatment of Pulmonary Fibrosis Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, appeared, causing a wide range of symptoms, mainly respiratory infection. In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic, therefore the efforts of scientists around the world are focused on finding the right treatment and vaccine for the novel disease. COVID-19 has spread rapidly over several months, affecting patients across all age groups and geographic areas. The disease has a diverse course; patients may range from asymptomatic to those with respiratory failure, complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). One possible complication of pulmonary involvement in COVID-19 is pulmonary fibrosis, which leads to chronic breathing difficulties, long-term disability and affects patients' quality of life. There are no specific mechanisms that lead to this phenomenon in COVID-19, but some information arises from previous severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) or Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemics. The aim of this narrative review is to present the possible causes and pathophysiology of pulmonary fibrosis associated with COVID-19 based on the mechanisms of the immune response, to suggest possible ways of prevention and treatment.

The association between influenza infections in primary care and intensive care admissions for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI): A modelling approach

Background

The burden of severe influenza virus infections is poorly known, for which surveillance of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is encouraged. Hospitalized SARI patients are however not always tested for influenza virus infection. Thus, to estimate the impact of influenza circulation we studied how influenza in primary care relates to intensive care unit (ICU) admissions using a modelling approach.

Methods

We used time‐series regression modelling to estimate a) the number of SARI admissions to ICU associated with medically attended influenza infections in primary care; b) how this varies by season; and c) the time lag between SARI and influenza time series. We analysed weekly adult ICU admissions (registry data) and adult influenza incidence (primary care surveillance data) from July 2007 through June 2016.

Results

Depending on the year, 0% to 12% of annual SARI admissions were associated with influenza (0‐554 in absolute numbers; population rate: 0/10 000‐0.39/10 000 inhabitants), up to 27% during influenza epidemics. The average optimal fitting lag was +1 week (SARI trend preceding influenza by 1 week), varying between seasons (−1 to +4) with most seasons showing positive lags.

Conclusion

Up to 12% of yearly SARI admissions to adult ICU are associated with influenza, but with large year‐to‐year variation and higher during influenza epidemics. In most years, SARI increases earlier than medically attended influenza infections in the general population. SARI surveillance could thus complement influenza‐like illness surveillance by providing an indication of the season‐specific burden of severe influenza infections and potential early warning of influenza activity and severity.

Outcomes of patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) admitted to the intensive care unit: results from the Egyptian Surveillance Study 2010-2014

Background

Few data exist about respiratory viral infections in Egyptian patients. Hereby we describe the outcomes of hospitalized Egyptian patients with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) admitted to the ICU.

Methods

A prospective study in which all hospitalized patients meeting the WHO case definition for SARI and admitted to the ICU, during the period 2010–2014, were enrolled. Samples were tested using RT-PCR for influenza A, B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, bocavirus, enterovirus, and rhinovirus. Data were analyzed to study the clinical features of SARI-ICU patients and which pathogens are related to severe outcomes. Associated comorbidities were evaluated using Charlson Age-Comorbidity Index (CACI).

Results

Out of 1,075 patients with SARI, 219 (20.3%) were admitted to the ICU. The highest rates were reported for RSV (37%). SARI-ICU patients had higher rates of hospital stay, pneumonia, respiratory failure, ARDS, and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified associated respiratory disorders (p=0.001), radiological abnormalities (p=0.023), and longer hospital stay (p=0.005) as risk factors for severe outcomes.

Conclusions

This surveillance study showed that 20% of hospitalized Egyptian patients with viral SARI needed ICU admission. SARI-ICU patients had higher rates of hospital stay, pneumonia, respiratory failure, ARDS, and mortality. Higher comorbidity index scores, radiological abnormalities, and longer hospital stay are risk factors for severe outcomes in SARI-ICU patients in our locality.

Severe acute respiratory illness surveillance for coronavirus disease 2019, India, 2020

Background & objectives:

Sentinel surveillance among severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients can help identify the spread and extent of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). SARI surveillance was initiated in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in India. We describe here the positivity for COVID-19 among SARI patients and their characteristics.

Methods:

SARI patients admitted at 41 sentinel sites from February 15, 2020 onwards were tested for COVID-19 by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, targeting E and RdRp genes of SARS-CoV-2. Data were extracted from Virus Research and Diagnostic Laboratory Network for analysis.

Results:

A total of 104 (1.8%) of the 5,911 SARI patients tested were positive for COVID-19. These cases were reported from 52 districts in 20 States/Union Territories. The COVID-19 positivity was higher among males and patients aged above 50 years. In all, 40 (39.2%) COVID-19 cases did not report any history of contact with a known case or international travel.

Interpretation & conclusions:

COVID-19 containment activities need to be targeted in districts reporting COVID-19 cases among SARI patients. Intensifying sentinel surveillance for COVID-19 among SARI patients may be an efficient tool to effectively use resources towards containment and mitigation efforts.

COVID-19 and Management of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI): A Questionnaire-Based Study Among Indian Healthcare Professionals

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 presenting as SARI (severe acute respiratory syndrome) mandates the need for ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalization, increasing healthcare burden. This study aims to determine knowledge of healthcare professionals towards management of SARI in COVID-19 suspected cases.

METHODS

A total of 313 healthcare professionals from the state of Maharashtra, India completed a questionnaire-based survey study adapted from the WHO interim guidance for management of SARI in COVID-19 suspected cases. Convenience sampling method was used and the distribution of responses was presented as frequencies and percentages. Sub-groups were classified on the basis of gender, age, profession and ICU vs. Non-ICU setting. Descriptive statistics were performed for all groups based on percentage of correct responses and individual pairwise comparisons were done using the Chi-Square test.

RESULTS

The median and mean percentage of correct responses for all sub groups was only 66.80% and 58.62% respectively. A higher percentage of total correct responses were those from the ICU setting with a higher overall performance from medical postgraduates. The nursing and allied healthcare professionals had a poor overall performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate lacunae in several aspects of SARI management which calls for nationwide studies and implementation of comprehensive training programmes. A uniform structured training program with team-oriented crisis resource management suitable for all healthcare professionals irrespective of prior training in COVID-19 management must be implemented. Furthermore, the findings of this study can serve as a baseline to develop training resources for healthcare professionals for COVID-19 management.

Media Reports as a Source for Monitoring Impact of Influenza on Hospital Care: Qualitative Content Analysis

Background

The Netherlands, like most European countries, has a robust influenza surveillance system in primary care. However, there is a lack of real-time nationally representative data on hospital admissions for complications of influenza. Anecdotal information about hospital capacity problems during influenza epidemics can, therefore, not be substantiated.

Objective

The aim of this study was to assess whether media reports could provide relevant information for estimating the impact of influenza on hospital capacity, in the absence of hospital surveillance data.

Methods

Dutch news articles on influenza in hospitals during the influenza season (week 40 of 2017 until week 20 of 2018) were searched in a Web-based media monitoring program (Coosto). Trends in the number of weekly articles were compared with trends in 5 different influenza surveillance systems. A content analysis was performed on a selection of news articles, and information on the hospital, department, problem, and preventive or response measures was collected.

Results

The trend in weekly news articles correlated significantly with the trends in all 5 surveillance systems, including severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance. However, the peak in all 5 surveillance systems preceded the peak in news articles. Content analysis showed hospitals (N=69) had major capacity problems (46/69, 67%), resulting in admission stops (9/46, 20%), postponement of nonurgent surgical procedures (29/46, 63%), or both (8/46, 17%). Only few hospitals reported the use of point-of-care testing (5/69, 7%) or a separate influenza ward (3/69, 4%) to accelerate clinical management, but most resorted to ad hoc crisis management (34/69, 49%).

Conclusions

Media reports showed that the 2017/2018 influenza epidemic caused serious problems in hospitals throughout the country. However, because of the time lag in media reporting, it is not a suitable alternative for near real-time SARI surveillance. A robust SARI surveillance program is important to inform decision making.

Burden and seasonality of medically attended influenza like illness (ILI) in Ethiopia, 2012 to 2017

BACKGROUND

The influenza virus spreads rapidly around the world in seasonal epidemics, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza-related incidence data are limited in many countries in Africa despite established sentinel surveillance. This study aimed to address the information gap by estimating the burden and seasonality of medically attended influenza like illness in Ethiopia.

METHOD

Influenza sentinel surveillance data collected from 3 influenza like illness (ILI) and 5 Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) sites from 2012 to 2017 was used for analysis. Descriptive statistics were applied for simple analysis. The proportion of medically attended influenza positive cases and incidence rate of ILI was determined using total admitted patients and catchment area population. Seasonality was estimated based on weekly trend of ILI and predicted threshold was done by applying the "Moving Epidemic Method (MEM)".

RESULT

A total of 5715 medically attended influenza suspected patients who fulfills ILI and SARI case definition (77% ILI and 23% SARI) was enrolled. Laboratory confirmed influenza virus (influenza positive case) among ILI and SARI suspected case was 25% (1130/4426) and 3% (36/1289). Of which, 65% were influenza type A. The predominantly circulating influenza subtype were seasonal influenza A(H3N2) (n = 455, 60%) and Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 293, 38.81%). The estimated mean annual influenza positive case proportion and ILI incidence rate was 160.04 and 52.48 per 100,000 population. The Incidence rate of ILI was higher in the age group of 15-44 years of age ['Incidence rate (R) = 254.6 per 100,000 population', 95% CI; 173.65, 335.55] and 5-14 years of age [R = 49.5, CI 95%; 31.47, 130.43]. The seasonality of influenza has two peak seasons; in a period from October-December and from April-June.

CONCLUSION

Significant morbidity of influenza like illness was observed with two peak seasons of the year and seasonal influenza A (H3N2) remains the predominantly circulating influenza subtype. Further study need to be considered to identify potential risks and improving the surveillance system to continue early detection and monitoring of circulating influenza virus in the country has paramount importance.

Discrete time forecasting of epidemics

Forecasting in the domain of infectious diseases aims at estimating the number of cases ahead of time during an epidemic, hence fundamentally requires understanding its dynamics. In fact, estimates about the dynamics help to predict the number of cases in an epidemic, which will depend on determining a few of defining factors such as its starting point, the turning point, growth factor, and the size of the epidemic in total number of cases. In this work a phenomenological model deals with a practical aspect often disregarded in such studies, namely that health surveillance produces counts in batches when aggregated over discrete time, such as days, weeks, months, or other time units. This model enables derivation of equations that permit both estimating key dynamics parameters and forecasting. Results using both severe acute respiratory illness data and synthetic data show that the forecasting follows very well over time the dynamics and is resilient with statistical noise, but has a delay effect due to the discrete time.

Low Circulation of Subclade A1 Enterovirus D68 Strains in Senegal during 2014 North America Outbreak

To retrospectively investigate enterovirus D68 circulation in Senegal during the 2014 US outbreak, we retrieved specimens from 708 persons, mostly children, who had acute respiratory symptoms during September-December 2014. Enterovirus D68 was detected in 14 children (2.1%); most cases occurred in October. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all strains clustered within subclade A1.

SARI suppresses colitis-associated cancer development by maintaining MCP-1-mediated tumour-associated macrophage recruitment

SARI (suppressor of AP‐1, regulated by IFN) impaired tumour growth by promoting apoptosis and inhibiting cell proliferation and tumour angiogenesis in various cancers. However, the role of SARI in regulating tumour‐associated inflammation microenvironment is still elusive. In our study, the colitis‐dependent and ‐independent primary model were established in SARI deficiency mice and immuno‐reconstructive mice to investigate the functional role of SARI in regulating tumour‐associated inflammation microenvironment and primary colon cancer formation. The results have shown that SARI deficiency promotes colitis‐associated cancer (CAC) development only in the presence of colon inflammation. SARI inhibited tumour‐associated macrophages (TAM) infiltration in colon tissues, and SARI deficiency in bone marrow cells has no observed role in the promotion of intestinal tumorigenesis. Mechanism investigations indicated that SARI down‐regulates p‐STAT1 and STAT1 expression in colon cancer cells, following inhibition of MCP‐1/CCR2 axis activation during CAC development. Inverse correlations between SARI expression and macrophage infiltration, MCP‐1 expression and p‐STAT1 expression were also demonstrated in colon malignant tissues. Collectively, our results prove the inhibition role of SARI in colon cancer formation through regulating TAM infiltration.