Cardiovascular mortality risk in patients with ovarian cancer: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

Ovarian cancer (OC) can occur at different ages and is affected by a variety of factors. In order to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients with ovarian cancer, we included influencing factors including age, histological type, surgical method, chemotherapy, whether distant metastasis, race and developed a nomogram to evaluate the ability to predict occurrence. At present, we have not found any correlation studies on cardiovascular death events in patients with ovarian cancer. This study was designed to provide targeted measures for effective prevention of cardiovascular death in patients with ovarian cancer.

METHODS

Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox proportional model were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of cardiovascular diseases on overall survival (OS) and ovarian cancer-specific survival (OCSS). We compared multiple groups including clinical, demographic, therapeutic characteristics and histological types. Cox risk regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and propensity score matching were employed for analyzing the data.

RESULTS

A total of 88,653 ovarian cancer patients were collected, of which 2,282 (2.57%) patients died due to cardiovascular-related diseases. Age, chemotherapy and whether satisfactory cytoreduction surgery is still the most important factors affecting the prognosis of ovarian cancer patients, while different histological types, diagnosis time, and race also have a certain impact on the prognosis. The newly developed nomogram model showed excellent predictive performance, with a C-index of 0.759 (95%CI: 0.757-0.761) for the group. Elderly patients with ovarian cancer are still a high-risk group for cardiovascular death [HR: 21.07 (95%CI: 5.21-85.30), p < 0.001]. The calibration curve showed good agreement from predicted survival probabilities to actual observations.

CONCLUSION

This study found that age, histology, surgery, race, chemotherapy, and tumor metastasis are independent prognostic factors for cardiovascular death in patients with ovarian cancer. The nomogram-based model can accurately predict the OS of ovarian cancer patients. It is expected to inform clinical decision-making and help develop targeted treatment strategies for this population.

[Establishment of a prognostic nomogram and discussion on optimal treatment for cervical adenocarcinoma:a retrospective study based on SEER database and Chinese single-center data]

Objective: To establish and validate a predicting nomogram for cervical adenocarcinoma based on surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database and Chinese single-center data, and to explore the optimal treatment for cervical adenocarcinoma. Methods: This study selected 2 478 cervical adenocarcinoma patients from the SEER database as the training cohort, and 195 cervical adenocarcinoma patients from Cancer Hospital of Dalian University of Technology, Liaouing Cancer Hospital and Institute as an external validation cohort. Clinicopathological information and follow-up data of the two cohorts were collected. The radiotherapy group was defined as receiving comprehensive treatment based on concurrent chemoradiotherapy after initial diagnosis, while the surgery group was defined as receiving comprehensive treatment based on radical surgery. Log-rank test and cox regression were used to evaluate factors affecting the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients. A nomogram was drawn to predict the 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates of cervical adenocarcinoma patients, and then internal validation of the training cohort from SEER database and external validation of the hospital cohort were conducted. Results: (1) In the SEER database training cohort, there were 385 patients (15.54%, 385/2 478) in the radiotherapy group and 2 093 patients (84.46%, 2 093/2 478) in the surgery group. Overall survival time of the radiotherapy group was (55.8±51.3) months, while that of the surgery roup was (94.4±61.7) months, the difference between the two groups was statistically significant (χ2=256.44, P<0.001). Log-rank test showed that age, marital status, maximum of tumor diameters, pathological grade, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, and treatments were all significant factors affecting the overall survival time of cervical adenocarcinoma patients (all P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that elder (>50 years old), single status, huge tumors (>4 cm), high pathological grades (G2, G3), and advanced FIGO stages (≥Ⅱa2 stage) were independent risk factors for the overall survival time of cervical adenocarcinoma patients (all P<0.05); compared with radiotherapy, surgery was a protective factor for the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients (HR=0.619, 95%CI: 0.494-0.777; P<0.001). Further analysis of locally advanced stage and Ⅲc stage of patients showed that surgery was a protective factor for the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients with a maximum tumor diameter >4 to <6 cm (HR=0.414, 95%CI: 0.182-0.942; P=0.036) in locally advanced stage and Ⅲc T1 to T2 stage (HR=0.473, 95%CI: 0.307-0.728; P=0.001). (2) The external validation cohort consisted of 39 patients (20.00%, 39/195) in the radiotherapy group and 156 patients (80.00%, 156/195) in the surgery group. The overall survival time of patients in the radiotherapy group was (51.7±34.3) months, while that of the surgery group was (63.1±26.6) months (χ2=28.41, P<0.001). Further analysis was conducted on locally advanced stage and Ⅲc stage patients, and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed after propensity score matching, which showed that surgery was a protective factor for the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients with a maximum tumor diameter >4 to <6 cm in locally advanced stage (HR=0.141, 95%CI: 0.023-0.843; P=0.032) and Ⅲc T1 to T2 stage (HR=0.184, 95%CI: 0.036-0.947; P=0.043). (3) Establishment and internal and external validation of nomogram: based on the six factors screened out by the multivariate Cox regression model, the nomogram was developed to predict the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients. The consistency index of the internal and external validation were 0.801 and 0.766, respectively, and the calibration curves matched well with the ideal fitting line. Conclusions: The key to the treatment of cervical adenocarcinoma is to prioritize radical surgery for patients with conditions for radical tumor resection. Compared with concurrent chemoradiotherapy, patients with locally advanced stages (Ⅰb3, Ⅱa2), and Ⅲc (T1, T2) stages cervical adenocarcinoma could benefit from comprehensive treatment based on radical surgery. The nomogram of this study has been validated internally and externally, and show good survival prediction efficacy for cervical adenocarcinoma patients.

[Analysis of long-term prognosis and risk factors in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy]

Objective: To investigate the risk factors and long-term prognosis of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs) in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Methods: This study was a single-center retrospective cohort study. Clinical information from 300 patients with DCM hospitalized in Peking Union Medical College Hospital from April 2013 to April 2023 was collected. Based on echocardiography results, the patients were divided into two groups: isolated DCM and DCM with left ventricular non-compaction cardiomyopathy (LVNC). The MACEs, including major heart failure events, severe ventricular arrhythmias, and cardiovascular death, were recorded by outpatient or telephone follow-up. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with DCM. Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank were used for survival analysis to compare the difference in the incidence of cardiovascular events between the two groups. Results: The included 300 DCM patients were (47.8±16.8) years old, with 197 males (65.7%), of which 237 (79.0%) were isolated DCM and 63 (21.0%) were DCM with LVNC. The follow-up time was 4.0 (1.9, 6.2) years. A total of 142 (47.3%) MACEs occurred, including 117 (39.0%) major heart failure events, 20 (6.7%) severe ventricular arrhythmia events, and 53 (17.7%) cardiovascular death events. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (HR=1.21, 95%CI: 1.01-1.44, P=0.042), moderate or severe mitral regurgitation (HR=1.71, 95%CI: 1.19-2.47, P=0.004), increased ln (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) (HR=1.30, 95%CI: 1.10-1.54, P=0.002) were independent risk factors for dverse cardiovascular events in DCM patients, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) treatment (HR=0.45, 95%CI: 0.26-0.78, P=0.004) was independent protective factor. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis found no significant difference in the risk of MACEs between isolated DCM and DCM with LVNC (P=0.22). Similarly, there were no significant differences in the incidence of major heart failure, severe ventricular arrhythmia, and cardiovascular death between the two groups (all P>0.05). Conclusion: An increase in left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, moderate or severe mitral regurgitation, elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and non use of ACEI/ARB/ARNI are independent predictors of cardiovascular events in DCM patients. There was no significant risk of MACEs in patients with isolated DCM and DCM with LVNC, and suggested that LVNC may be a unique phenotype and should be accurately managed in combination with genetic background.

Waistline to thigh circumference ratio as a predictor of MAFLD: a health care worker study with 2-year follow-up

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine whether the waist-to-thigh ratio (WTTR) is associated with the incidence of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in health care workers.

METHODS

There were 4517 health care workers with baseline data and results from 2 follow-up examinations. We divided the subjects into 3 groups according to baseline WTTR and used the Cox hazard regression model to estimate MAFLD risk.

RESULTS

The WTTRs were categorized by tertiles at baseline using the values 1.58 and 1.66. Patients with higher WTTR tended to have significantly greater values for the following factors, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FPG), systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) and neck circumference. The incidence of MAFLD significantly increased with increasing WTTR tertiles (5.74%, 12.75% and 22.25% for the first, second and third tertiles, respectively, P < 0.05 for trend). Kaplan-Meier(K-M) survival analysis revealed a significant tendency towards increased MAFLD risk with increasing WTTR tertile. In the fully adjusted model, the hazard ratios (95% CIs) for MAFLD in the second, third WTTR tertiles compared with the first quartile were 2.17(1.58,2.98), 3.63(2.70,4.89), respectively, third neck circumference tertiles compared with the first quartile were 2.84(1.89,4.25), 8.95(6.00,13.35), respectively. Compared with those of individuals with a BMI > 23 kg/m2, the associations between WTTR and MAFLD incidence were more pronounced in subjects with a BMI < 23 kg/m2. Similarly, the difference in neck circumference was more pronounced in these patients with a BMI < 23 kg/m2.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results revealed that the WTTR is an independent risk factor for MAFLD, and there was a dose‒response relationship between the WTTR and MAFLD risk. The neck circumference was significantly different in subjects with a BMI < 23 kg/m2. This approach provides a new way to predict the incidence rate of MAFLD.

Community-level group sports participation and all-cause, cardiovascular disease, and cancer mortality: a 7-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Community-level group sports participation is a structural aspect of social capital that can potentially impact individual health in a contextual manner. This study aimed to investigate contextual relationship between the community-level prevalence of group sports participation and the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality in older adults.

METHODS

In this 7-year longitudinal cohort study, data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, a nationwide survey encompassing 43,088 functionally independent older adults residing in 311 communities, were used. Cause of death data were derived from the Japanese governmental agency, The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, for secondary use. "Participation" was defined as engaging in group sports for one or more days per month. To analyze the data, a two-level survival analysis was employed, and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.

RESULTS

Among the participants, 5,711 (13.3%) deaths were identified, with 1,311 related to CVD and 2,349 to cancer. The average group sports participation rate was 28.3% (range, 10.0-52.7%). After adjusting for individual-level group sports participation and potential confounders, a higher community-level group sports participation rate was found to be significantly associated with a lower risk of both all-cause mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83-0.95) and cancer mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81-0.98) for every 10% point increase in the participation rate. For CVD mortality, the association became less significant in the model adjusted for all covariates (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.82-1.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the existence of a preventive relationship between community-level group sports participation and the occurrence of all-cause and cancer mortality among older individuals. Promoting group sports within communities holds promise as an effective population-based strategy for extending life expectancy, regardless of individual participation in these groups.

Appropriate Anthropometric Indices for Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index in Predicting Mortality in Older Japanese Patients: A Comparison of the Lorentz Formula and Body Mass Index

The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) is a popular nutritional screening tool. However, the calculation of ideal body weight (IBW) differs among studies. We aimed to compare GNRI calculated using the Lorentz formula (LF) with a body mass index (BMI) and to investigate the cutoffs based on original or quartile criteria for the association with mortality in elderly patients in Japan. This retrospective study enrolled patients aged 65 and older in a long-term care hospital. The GNRI was calculated using two different IBW methods: the LF and a BMI of 22 kg/m2. We categorized GNRI results based on the original criteria or quartile criteria. Mortality outcomes were analyzed using the GNRI based on IBW (LF or BMI) and its classification (original criteria or quartile) through Cox proportional hazard regression. There were 262 participants, including 160 women, with a median age of 86. There was a notable difference between GNRI-BMI and GNRI-LF. The GNRI-LF original and quartile criteria did not show an association with mortality. A significant association with mortality was found between Q1 and Q4 in the GNRI-BMI quartile criteria (hazard ratio: 2.60; 95% confidence interval: 1.66-4.07, p < 0.01), but not the GNRI-BMI original criteria. The GNRI calculated using BMI with quartile criteria proved to be a reliable predictor of mortality for Japanese elderly inpatients. The calculation method of GNRI and the appropriate cutoff point should be considered based on the patient's background.

[Role of neoadjuvant rectal score in prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy decision-making in locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy]

Objectives: To assess the prognostic impact of the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), as well as its value in guiding decisions for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: Between August 2015 and August 2018, patients were eligible from the STELLAR phase III trial (NCT02533271) who received short-course radiotherapy plus consolidation chemotherapy and for whom the NAR score could be calculated. Based on the NAR score, patients were categorized into low (＜8), intermediate (8-16), and high (＞16) groups. The Kaplan-Meier method, log rank tests, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the impact of the NAR score on disease-free survival (DFS). Results: Out of the 232 patients, 24.1%, 48.7%, and 27.2% had low (56 cases), intermediate (113 cases), and high NAR scores (63 cases), respectively. The median follow-up period was 37 months, with 3-year DFS rates of 87.3%, 68.3%, and 53.4% (P＜0.001) for the low, intermediate, and high NAR score groups. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the NAR score (intermediate NAR score: HR, 3.10, 95% CI, 1.30-7.37, P=0.011; high NAR scores: HR=5.44, 95% CI, 2.26-13.09, P＜0.001), resection status (HR, 3.00, 95% CI, 1.64-5.52, P＜0.001), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 3.25, 95% CI, 2.01-5.27, P＜0.001) were independent prognostic factors for DFS. In patients with R0 resection, the 3-year DFS rates were 97.8% and 78.0% for those with low and intermediate NAR scores who received adjuvant chemotherapy, significantly higher than the 43.2% and 50.6% for those who did not (P＜0.001, P=0.002). There was no significant difference in the 3-year DFS rate (54.2% vs 53.3%, P=0.214) among high NAR score patients, regardless of adjuvant chemotherapy. Conclusions: The NAR score is a robust prognostic indicator in LARC following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy, with potential implications for subsequent decisions regarding adjuvant chemotherapy. These findings warrant further validation in studies with larger sample sizes.

[Analysis of factors influencing the efficacy and prognosis of surgical treatment for primary malignant pelvic bone tumors]

Objective: To analyze the prognostic factors and the influence of surgical margin to prognosis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed for 208 pelvic tumors who received surgical treatment from January 2000 to December 2017 in our instituition. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log rank test, and impact factor analysis was performed using Cox regression models. Results: There were 183 initial patients and 25 recurrent cases. According to Enneking staging, 110 cases were stage ⅠB and 98 cases were stage ⅡB. 19 lesions were in zone Ⅰ, 1 in zone Ⅱ, 15 in zone Ⅲ, 29 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ, 71 in zone Ⅱ+Ⅲ, 29 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅳ, 35 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ+Ⅲ, 3 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ+Ⅳ, and 6 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ+Ⅲ+Ⅳ. Surgical margins including Intralesional excision in 7 cases, contaminated margin in 21 cases, marginal resection in 67 cases, and wide resection in 113 cases. Local recurrence occurred in 37 cases (17.8%), 25 cases were performed by reoperation and 12 cases received amputation finally. The 5-year recurrence rate of marginal resection was higher than wide resection (P＜0.05), and the recurrence-free survival rate of marginal resection was lower than wide resection (P＜0.05). There was significant differences in recurrence rate and recurrence-free survival rate between R0 and R1 resection (P＜0.05). 92 cases were not reconstructed and 116 cases were reconstructed after pelvic surgery. At the last follow-up, 63 patients (30.3%) died, and the 5-year, 10-year and 15-year survival rates were 70.4%, 66.8% and 61.3%, respectively. The 5-year survival rate of stage ⅠB and ⅡB tumor was 90.4% and 46.8%, respectively. There were 29 cases had postoperative wound complications (13.8%), 1 case with pelvic organ injury. The final function was evaluated in 132 patients, with an average MSTS score of 25.1±3.6. Cox multivariate analysis showed that surgical staging, R0/R1 margin and metastasis were independent prognostic factors for pelvic tumors. Conclusions: The safe surgical margin is the key factor for recurrence-free of pelvic tumor. The survival rate of stage ⅡB pelvic tumors was significantly lower than that of stage ⅠB tumors. Wound infection is the main postoperative complication. Surgical staging, R0/R1 margin and metastasis were independent prognostic factors of pelvic tumors.

Population-based retrospective cohort study on community-acquired pneumonia hospitalization in children with a ventricular septal defect

The cohort consisted of 9400 exposed children diagnosed with ventricular septal defect (VSD). The risk of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) or asthma with VSD was assessed using the Cox proportional hazard model with an inverse probability of treatment weighting. During a mean follow-up of 6.67 years (starting from 12 months after birth), there were 2100 CAP admission cases among exposed patients (incidence rate: 33.2 per 1000 person-years) and 20,109 CAP admission cases among unexposed children (incidence rate: 29.6 per 1000 person-years), with hazard ration of 1.09 (95% CI 1.04-1.14).

Association between onychomycosis and ulcerative complications in patients with diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study in Dutch general practice

INTRODUCTION

Diabetic foot ulcers are feared complications of diabetes mellitus (DM), requiring extensive treatment and hospital admissions, ultimately leading to amputation and increased mortality. Different factors contribute to the development of foot ulcers and related complications. Onychomycosis, being more prevalent in patients with diabetes, could be an important risk factor for developing ulcers and related infections. However, the association between onychomycosis and diabetic complications has not been well studied in primary care.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

To determine the impact of onychomycosis on ulcer development and related complications in patients with diabetes in primary care, a longitudinal cohort study was carried out using routine care data from the Extramural Leiden University Medical Center Academic Network. Survival analyses were performed through Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent covariates.

RESULTS

Data from 48 212 patients with a mean age of 58 at diagnosis of DM, predominantly type 2 (87.8%), were analysed over a median follow-up of 10.3 years. 5.7% of patients developed an ulcer. Onychomycosis significantly increased the risk of ulcer development (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.66), not affected by antimycotic treatment, nor after adjusting for confounders (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.49). The same was found for surgical interventions (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.75) and skin infections (HR 1.48, CI 95% 1.28 to 1.72), again not affected by treatment and significant after adjusting for confounders (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.51 and HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.48, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Onychomycosis significantly increased the risk of ulcer development in patients with DM in primary care, independently of other risk factors. In addition, onychomycosis increased the risk of surgeries and infectious complications. These results underscore the importance of giving sufficient attention to onychomycosis in primary care and corresponding guidelines. Early identification of onychomycosis during screening and routine care provides a good opportunity for timely recognition of increased ulcer risk.

The neutrophil-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with acute decompensated heart failure at different glucose metabolic states: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The present study was performed to assess the association between the neutrophil-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio (NAR) and outcomes in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) at different glucose metabolism states.

METHODS

We recruited 1233 patients with ADHF who were admitted to Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University from December 2014 to October 2019. The endpoints were defined as composites of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke and exacerbation of chronic heart failure. The restricted cubic spline was used to determine the best cutoff of NAR, and patients were divided into low and high NAR groups. Kaplan-Meier plots and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the association between NAR and the risk of adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

During the five-year follow-up period, the composite outcome occurred in 692 participants (56.1%). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, a higher NAR was associated with a higher incidence of composite outcomes in the total cohort (Model 1: HR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.22-1.65, P<0.001; Model 2: HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.10-1.51, P = 0.002; Model 3: HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.01-1.42, P = 0.036). At different glucose metabolic states, a high NAR was associated with a high risk of composite outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) (Model 1: HR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.25-1.90, P<0.001; Model 2: HR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, P = 0.002; Model 3: HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.04-1.66, P = 0.022), and the above association was not found in patients with prediabetes mellitus (Pre-DM) or normal glucose regulation (NGR) (both P>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The NAR has predictive value for adverse outcomes of ADHF with DM, which implies that the NAR could be a potential indicator for the management of ADHF.

The association between raw garlic consumption and the risk of depressive symptoms: the TCLSIH cohort study

Background: Garlic has antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, cardiovascular improvement and other beneficial effects on human health. However, few studies have evaluated the association of garlic intake with the risk of depressive symptoms. The aim of this prospective cohort was to examine the association between the frequency of raw garlic consumption and depressive symptoms in the general adult population. Methods: A total of 7427 participants (mean ± standard deviation: 39.7 ± 10.5 years) without baseline depressive symptoms were included in the cohort study. Garlic consumption was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire, and depressive symptoms were assessed by a Chinese version of the Self-rating Depression Scale score (SDS score ≥ 45). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association between garlic consumption and the risk of depressive symptoms. Results: This study identified 1070 cases of depressive symptoms during a median follow-up of 2.0 years, with a depression prevalence of 73.4 cases per 1000 person-years. After multivariate adjustment, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for depressive symptoms in males were 1.00 (reference) for almost never, 1.05 (0.84, 1.32) for ≤1 time per week, 1.16 (0.90, 1.49) for 2-3 times per week, and 1.31 (0.97, 1.78) for ≥4 times per week, and in females, they were 1.00 (reference) for almost never, 0.85 (0.69, 1.06) for ≤1 time per week, 0.72 (0.54, 0.97) for 2-3 times per week, and 0.78 (0.53, 1.13) for ≥4 times per week. Conclusion: In a large general population, we demonstrate for the first time that moderate raw garlic consumption is associated with a reduced risk of depressive symptoms in females, but not in males. Additional prospective studies with long-term follow-up and randomized controlled trials are necessary to confirm the preliminary results of the current study.

Trajectories of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores as a predictor for incident chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

The relationship between atherosclerosis and renal function is well established. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores reflect atherosclerotic burden, which changes over time. We investigated the association between ASCVD risk trajectories and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) using data from a large community-based Korean cohort with up to 16 years of follow-up.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 5032 participants without CKD from the baseline survey of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study Ansan-Ansung cohort. Participants were categorized into stable or increasing ASCVD risk groups based on the revised ASCVD risk pooled cohort equation over a median period of exposure of 5.8 years. Incident CKD was defined as two consecutive events of an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2.

RESULTS

During a median 9.9 years of event accrual period, 449 (8.92%) new-onset CKD cases were identified. Multiple Cox proportional regression analyses showed that the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident CKD in the increasing group, compared to the stable group, was 2.13 (1.74-2.62) in the unadjusted model and 1.35 (1.02-1.78) in the fully-adjusted model. Significant relationships were maintained in subgroups of individuals in their 50s, without diabetes mellitus or hypertension. The prevalence of proteinuria was consistently higher in the increasing group than that in the stable group.

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing trend in ASCVD risk scores independently predicted adverse renal outcomes in patients without diabetes mellitus or hypertension. Continuous monitoring of ASCVD risk is not only important for predicting cardiovascular disease but also for predicting CKD.

Joint association of serum urate and healthy diet with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence: results from the UK Biobank study

Background: The role of serum urate (SU) levels in the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a topic of debate, and it is unclear whether a healthy diet can mitigate the impact of SU on COPD risk. The objective of this study is to examine whether and to what extent a healthy diet can reduce the risk of COPD in relation to SU levels. Methods: The cohort analysis included 155 403 participants from the UK Biobank. SU levels were measured at the time of recruitment. A healthy diet score was calculated based on the consumption of vegetables, fruits, fish, processed meats, unprocessed red meat, whole grains, and refined grains. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the associations between SU levels, a healthy diet score, and the risk of COPD. Results: During a follow-up period of 1 409 969 person-years, 2918 incident cases of COPD were identified. Compared with the lowest SU level group, the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for COPD were 1.17 (1.03, 1.34) for participants with the highest SU level (hyperuricemia), indicating a positive association. Additionally, a dose-response relationship was observed between SU levels and the incidence of COPD (P-value for overall <0.0001). In the combined effect analysis, compared to individuals with high SU (hyperuricemia) + a low diet score (diet score <4), those with normal SU + a high diet score (diet score ≥4) had a HR (95% CI) of 0.75 (0.65, 0.87) for COPD. Conclusions: In summary, there is a positive association between SU levels and the risk of COPD. Furthermore, a healthier diet can mitigate the risk of COPD associated with high SU levels.

Association of Cantonese dietary patterns with mortality risk in older Chinese: a 16-year follow-up of a Guangzhou Biobank cohort study

Background: Evidence about the associations between Cantonese dietary patterns and mortality is scarce. We examined the prospective association of the dietary pattern with all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in older Chinese. Methods: We included 19 598 participants of a Guangzhou Biobank cohort study aged 50+ years, who were recruited from 2003 to 2006 and followed up until July, 2022. The diet was assessed by using a 300-item validated food frequency questionnaire. The food items were collapsed into 27 food groups. Factor analysis (FA) was used to identify dietary patterns. Multivariable Cox regression produced hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality. Results: During 305 410 person-years, 4966 deaths including 1971 CVD, 1565 cancer and 1436 other-causes occurred. Four dietary patterns were identified by FA. No association of the vegetable-based dietary pattern with all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality was found. Compared with the lowest quartile of the healthy Cantonese dietary pattern score, the highest quartile showed lower risks of all-cause (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80-0.94) and CVD mortality (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.97). The highest quartile of the nut and fruit dietary pattern showed lower risks of all-cause (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99) and CVD mortality (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.72-0.93), while the unhealthy western dietary pattern was associated with a higher risk of all-cause (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.19) and cerebrovascular disease mortality (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.03-1.58). Conclusion: We have first identified four dietary patterns based on the Cantonese cuisine and found that healthy Cantonese and nut and fruit dietary patterns were associated with lower risks of all-cause and CVD mortality, whereas the unhealthy western dietary pattern was associated with a higher risk of all-cause and cerebrovascular disease mortality.

Remnant cholesterol is an effective biomarker for predicting survival in patients with breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women worldwide. The relationship between remnant cholesterol (RC) and the prognosis of patients with breast cancer has not been clearly reported. This study investigated the prognostic value of RC in predicting mortality in patients with breast cancer.

METHODS

This study prospectively analysed 709 women patients with breast cancer from the Investigation on Nutrition Status and Clinical Outcome of Common Cancers (INSCOC) project. Restricted cubic splines were used to analyse the dose-response relationship between RC and breast cancer mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the overall survival of patients with breast cancer. A Cox regression analyses was performed to assess the independent association between RC and breast cancer mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score was used to reduce confounding. Sensitivity analysis was performed after excluding patients with underlying diseases and survival times shorter than one year.

RESULTS

A linear dose-response relationship was identified between RC and the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with breast cancer (p = 0.036). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank test showed that patients with high RC levels had poorer survival than those with low RC levels (p = 0.007). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that RC was an independent risk factor for mortality in women patients with breast cancer. IPTW-adjusted analyses and sensitivity analyses showed that CR remained a prognostic factor.

CONCLUSIONS

RC is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of patients with breast cancer, and patients with higher RC levels have poorer survival.

Association between Diet Quality and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease: Findings from the CORDIOPREV Study

The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is growing in Western countries. Nutritional interventions that promote high-quality dietary patterns could help reverse this trend. We aimed to evaluate whether changes in Nutrient-Rich Food Index 9.3 (NRF9.3) were related to the risk of developing T2DM in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). The study was carried out in the context of two healthy dietary interventions (a Mediterranean and a low-fat diet). For this purpose, we evaluated all the patients in the CORDIOPREV study without T2DM at baseline. Data were obtained during the first 5 years of dietary intervention. The score was calculated using the Food Frequency Questionnaires at baseline and after 1 year of intervention. After 5 years of follow-up, 106 patients developed T2DM (incident-T2DM), while 316 subjects did not (non-T2DM). Total NRF9.3 score and changes during the first year of intervention were compared between incident-T2DM and non-T2DM. Incident-T2DM showed less improvement in NRF9.3 than non-T2DM (p = 0.010). In the multi-adjusted Cox proportional hazard study, patients with greater improvement in NRF9.3 had over 50% less risk of developing T2DM compared with the lowest tertile (HR 2.10, 95%, CI = 1.12-3.56). In conclusion, improved diet quality in terms of nutrient density after the dietary intervention was associated with a lower risk of T2DM in patients with CHD.

Survival prediction in patients with gynecological cancer irradiated for brain metastases

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This large population-based, retrospective, single-center study aimed to identify prognostic factors in patients with brain metastases (BM) from gynecological cancers.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

One hundred and forty four patients with BM from gynecological cancer treated with radiotherapy (RT) were identified. Primary cancer diagnosis, age, performance status, number of BM, presence of extracranial disease, and type of BM treatment were assessed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for multivariable analysis. A prognostic index (PI) was developed based on scores from independent predictors of OS.

RESULTS

Median OS for the entire study population was 6.2 months. Forty per cent of patients died within 3 months after start of RT. Primary cancer with the origin in cervix or vulva (p = 0.001),  Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) 3-4 (p < 0.001), and the presence of extracranial disease (p = 0.001) were associated with significantly shorter OS. The developed PI based on these factors, categorized patients into three risk groups with a median OS of 13.5, 4.0, and 2.4 months for the good, intermediate, and poor prognosis group, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Patients with BM from gynecological cancers carry a poor prognosis. We identified prognostic factors and developed a scoring tool to select patients with better or worse prognosis. Patients in the high-risk group have a particular poor prognosis, and omission of RT could be considered.

Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province

Objectives

The characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases.

Methods

This study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30-79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities.

Results

The overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19-3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85-53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22-15.31).

Conclusion

The prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions.

The quasi-xgamma frailty model with survival analysis under heterogeneity problem, validation testing, and risk analysis for emergency care data

Frailty models are important for survival data because they allow for the possibility of unobserved heterogeneity problem. The problem of heterogeneity can be existed due to a variety of factors, such as genetic predisposition, environmental factors, or lifestyle choices. Frailty models can help to identify these factors and to better understand their impact on survival. In this study, we suggest a novel quasi xgamma frailty (QXg-F) model for the survival analysis. In this work, the test of Rao-Robson and Nikulin is employed to test the validity and suitability of the probabilistic model, we examine the distribution's properties and evaluate its performance in comparison with many relevant cox-frailty models. To show how well the QXg-F model captures heterogeneity and enhances model fit, we use simulation studies and real data applications, including a fresh dataset gathered from an emergency hospital in Algeria. According to our research, the QXg-F model is a viable replacement for the current frailty modeling distributions and has the potential to improve the precision of survival analyses in a number of different sectors, including emergency care. Moreover, testing the ability and the importance of the new QXg-F model in insurance is investigated using simulations via different methods and application to insurance data.

Effect of different treatment modalities on ovarian cancer patients with liver metastases: A retrospective cohort study based on SEER

BACKGROUND

To examine the trends in morbidity and mortality among ovarian cancer patients with liver metastases, and investigate the impact of different treatments on both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

METHODS

2,925 ovarian cancer patients with liver metastases from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 2010-2019 were included. The primary endpoint was considered as OS and CSS. We conducted trend analysis of the incidence, OS and CSS rates of liver metastases in ovarian cancer. Univariate and multivariate COX proportional risk models were used to investigate the association between different treatment methods and OS, and univariate and multivariate competing risk models were employed to evaluate the impact of treatment methods on CSS.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, 689 patients remained alive. The OS and CSS rates were 76.44% and 72.99% for all patients, respectively. There was a significant decreasing trend in the incidence [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): -3.9, -0.7], all-cause mortality (AAPC = -12.8, 95% CI: -15.6, -9.9) and specific mortality (AAPC = -13.0, 95% CI: -16.1, -9.8) rate of liver metastases in ovarian cancer. After adjusting all confounding factor, only receiving surgery was associated with OS [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.39, 95%CI: 0.31-0.48]/CSS (HR = 0.37, 95%CI: 0.30-0.47). Chemotherapy was found to be protective factor for OS (HR = 0.33, 95%CI: 0.30-0.37)/CSS (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.39-0.50) of ovarian cancer patients, while not receiving surgery remained a risk factor. Additionally, the result of subgroup analyses also showed that only receiving surgery and chemotherapy still were significant protective factor of OS and CSS for patients without other distant metastases, with distant metastases to the bone, lung, brain or other organs, with bone metastasis, and with lung metastasis.

CONCLUSION

Our research has elucidated a downward trend in morbidity and mortality rates among patients with liver metastases originating from ovarian cancer. Only receiving surgery and chemotherapy as therapies methods confer survival benefits to patients.

Risk factors of reattempt among suicide attempters in South Korea: A nationwide retrospective cohort study

This study aimed to identify underlying demographic and clinical characteristics among individuals who had previously attempted suicide, utilizing the comprehensive Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) database. Data of patients aged 18 and above who had attempted suicide between January 1 and December 31, 2014, recorded in HIRA, were extracted. The index date was identified when a suicide attempt was made within the year 2014. The medical history of the three years before the index date and seven years of follow-up data after the index date were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier estimate was used to infer reattempt of the suicide attempters, and Cox-proportional hazard analysis was used to investigate risk factors associated with suicide reattempts. A total of 17,026 suicide attempters were identified, of which 1,853 (10.9%) reattempted suicide; 4,925 (28.9%) patients had been diagnosed with depressive disorder. Of the reattempters, 391 (21.1%) demonstrated a history of suicide attempts in the three years before the index date, and the mean number of prior attempts was higher compared to that of the non-reattempters (1.7 vs.1.3, p-value < 0.01). Prior psychiatric medication, polypharmacy, and an increase in the number of psychotropics were associated with suicide reattempt in overall suicide attempters. (Hazard ratio (HR) = 3.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.56-4.00; HR = 2.42, 95% CI = 1.87-3.14; HR = 19.66, 95% CI = 15.22-25.39 respectively). The risk of reattempt decreased in individuals receiving antidepressant prescriptions compared to those unmedicated, showing a reduction of 78% when prescribed by non-psychiatrists and 89% when prescribed by psychiatrists. Similar risk factors for suicide reattempts were observed in the depressive disorder subgroup, but the median time to reattempt was shorter (556.5 days) for this group compared to that for the overall attempters (578 days). Various risk factors including demographics, clinical characteristics, and medications should be considered to prevent suicide reattempts among suicide attempters, and patients with depressive disorder should be monitored more closely.

Adherence to Diet Quality Indices and Breast Cancer Risk in the Italian ORDET Cohort

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in women, with 2.3 million diagnoses in 2020. There is growing evidence that lifestyle factors, including dietary factors, particularly the complex interactions and synergies between different foods and nutrients (and not a single nutrient or food), may be associated with a higher risk of BC. The aim of this work was to evaluate how the Italian Mediterranean Index (IMI), the Greek Mediterranean Index, the DASH score, and the EAT-Lancet score can help lower the risk of BC, and analyze if chronic low-grade inflammation may be one of the possible mechanisms through which dietary patterns influence breast cancer risk. We evaluated the effect of adherence to these four dietary quality indices in the 9144 women of the ORDET cohort who completed a dietary questionnaire. The effect of adherence to dietary patterns on chronic inflammation biomarkers was evaluated on a subsample of 552 participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for BC risk in relation to the index score categories used were estimated using multivariable Cox models adjusted for potential confounders. Regression coefficients (β), with 95% CI for C-reactive protein (CRP), TNF-α, IL-6, leptin, and adiponectin levels in relation to adherence to dietary patterns were evaluated with the linear regression model adjusted for potential confounders. IMI was inversely associated with BC in all women (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60-0.97, P trend = 0.04), particularly among postmenopausal women (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.42-0.98, P trend = 0.11). None of the other dietary patterns was associated with BC risk. Higher IMI and Greek Mediterranean Index scores were inversely associated with circulating CRP (β: -0.10, 95% CI: -0.18, -0.02, and β: -0.13, 95% CI: -0.21, -0.04). The higher score of the EAT-Lancet Index was instead associated with a higher concentration of circulating levels of CRP (β: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.18). In conclusion, these results suggest that adherence to a typical Italian Mediterranean diet protects against BC development, especially among postmenopausal women, possibly through modulation of chronic low-grade inflammation.

Association of daily sitting time and coffee consumption with the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality among US adults

BACKGROUND

Sedentary behavior has been demonstrated to be a modifiable factor for several chronic diseases, while coffee consumption is believed to be beneficial for health. However, the joint associations of daily sitting time and coffee consumption with mortality remains poorly understood. This study aimed to evaluate the independent and joint associations of daily sitting time and coffee intakes with mortality from all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among US adults.

METHODS

An analysis of a prospective cohort from the 2007-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of US adults (n = 10,639). Data on mortality were compiled from interview and physical examination data until December 31, 2019. Daily sitting time was self-reported. Coffee beverages were from the 24-hour diet recall interview. The main outcomes of the study were all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. The adjusted hazard ratios [HRs] and 95% confidence intervals [CI] were imputed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Among 10,639 participants in the study cohort, there were 945 deaths, 284 of whom died of CVD during the follow-up period of up to 13 years. Multivariable models showed that sitting more than 8 h/d was associated with higher risks of all-cause (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.17-1.81) and CVD (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.21-2.66) mortality, compared with those sitting for less than 4 h/d. People with the highest quartile of coffee consumption were observed for the reduced risks of both all-cause (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54-0.84) and CVD (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30-0.69) mortality compared with non-coffee consumers. Notably, joint analyses firstly showed that non-coffee drinkers who sat six hours or more per day were 1.58 (95% CI, 1.25-1.99) times more likely to die of all causes than coffee drinkers sitting for less than six hours per day, indicating that the association of sedentary with increased mortality was only observed among adults with no coffee consumption but not among those who had coffee intake.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified that sedentary behavior for more than 6 h/d accompanied with non-coffee consumption, were strongly associated with the increased risk of mortality from all-cause and CVD.

Association of hypertension and depression with mortality: an exploratory study with interaction and mediation models

BACKGROUND

The association of hypertension and depression with mortality has not been fully understood. We aimed to explore the possible independent or joint association of hypertension and depression with mortality. Their interaction effects on mortality and possible mediating role were also investigated.

METHODS

Associations of hypertension, depression, and their interaction with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. The mediation analysis was conducted with a Sobel test.

RESULTS

A total of 35152 participants were included in the final analysis. Hypertension and depression were independently associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. The co-existence of hypertension and depression resulted in a 1.7-fold [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.1] increase in all-cause mortality and a 2.3-fold (95% CI: 1.4-3.7) increase in CVD mortality compared to those with neither of them. Hypertension and depression showed no significant multiplicative (P for interaction, 0.587) and additive interaction (P for relative excess risk of interaction, 0.243; P for Interaction on additive scale, 0.654) on all-cause mortality, as well as on CVD mortality. Depression did not mediate the relationship between hypertension and all-cause (Z=1.704, P=0.088) and CVD mortality (Z=1.547, P=0.122). Hypertension did not mediate the relationship between all-cause and CVD mortality as well.

CONCLUSION

Hypertension and depression were related to all-cause and CVD mortality independently and the co-existence of them increased the risk of mortality. However, there is no interaction effect of them on mortality, and hypertension or depression did not mediate the association of each other with mortality.

Depressive disorder and elevated risk of bell's palsy: a nationwide propensity score-weighting study

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have reported a potential relationship between depressive disorder (DD), immune function, and inflammatory response. Some studies have also confirmed the correlation between immune and inflammatory responses and Bell's palsy. Considering that the pathophysiology of these two diseases has several similarities, this study investigates if DD raises the risk of developing Bell's palsy.

METHODS

This nationwide propensity score-weighting cohort study utilized Taiwan National Health Insurance data. 44,198 patients with DD were identified as the DD cohort and 1,433,650 adult subjects without DD were identified as the comparison cohort. The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) strategy was used to balance the differences of covariates between two groups. The 5-year incidence of Bell's palsy was evaluated using the Cox proportional-hazard model, presenting results in terms of hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The average age of DD patients was 48.3 ± 17.3 years, and 61.86% were female. After propensity score-weighting strategy, no significant demographic differences emerged between the DD and comparison cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed a statistically significant adjusted IPTW-HR of 1.315 (95% CI: 1.168-1.481) for Bell's palsy in DD patients compared to comparison subjects. Further independent factors for Bell's palsy in this model were age (IPTW-HR: 1.012, 95% CI: 1.010-1.013, p < 0.0001), sex (IPTW-HR: 0.909, 95% CI: 0.869-0.952, p < 0.0001), hypertension (IPTW-HR: 1.268, 95% CI: 1.186-1.355, p < 0.0001), hyperlipidemia (IPTW-HR: 1.084, 95% CI: 1.001-1.173, p = 0.047), and diabetes (IPTW-HR: 1.513, 95% CI: 1.398-1.637, p < 0.0001) CONCLUSION: This Study confirmed that individuals with DD face an elevated risk of developing Bell's palsy. These findings hold significant implications for both clinicians and researchers, shedding light on the potential interplay between mental health and the risk of certain physical health outcomes.

Predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index on one-year mortality in geriatric hip fractures

BACKGROUND

Geriatric hip fractures are associated with a high incidence of mortality. This study examines the predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) on one-year mortality in elderly hip fracture patients.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective study was conducted between February 2017 and October 2020. Three hundred and eleven surgically treated consecutive hip fracture patients were included in the study. Admission, postoperative first day, and postoperative fifth-day SII values were calculated. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to calculate the cut-off values, and patients were divided into high and low groups according to these cut-off values. After univariate Cox regression analysis, significant factors were included in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to adjust the effect of covariates and explore independent predictive factors associated with mortality. Further subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the results for different clinical and biological characteristics.

RESULTS

The mean age was 80.7 ± 8.0 years, and women made up the majority (67.8%) of the patients. The one-year mortality rate was 28.0%. After univariate and multivariate analyses, high postoperative fifth-day SII remained an independent predictor of one-year mortality (adjusted HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.38-3.38, p = 0.001). Older age, male gender, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥ 2, and hypoalbuminemia were found to be other independent predictors. The optimal cut-off value of the postoperative fifth-day SII was calculated at 1751.9 units (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The postoperative fifth-day SII is a simple and useful inflammatory biomarker for predicting one-year mortality in patients with hip fracture.

Simultaneous variable selection and estimation for survival data via the Gaussian seamless- L 0 $$ {L}_0 $$ penalty

We propose a new simultaneous variable selection and estimation procedure with the Gaussian seamless-L 0 $$ {L}_0 $$ (GSELO) penalty for Cox proportional hazard model and additive hazards model. The GSELO procedure shows good potential to improve the existing variable selection methods by taking strength from both best subset selection (BSS) and regularization. In addition, we develop an iterative algorithm to implement the proposed procedure in a computationally efficient way. Theoretically, we establish the convergence properties of the algorithm and asymptotic theoretical properties of the proposed procedure. Since parameter tuning is crucial to the performance of the GSELO procedure, we also propose an extended Bayesian information criteria (EBIC) parameter selector for the GSELO procedure. Simulated and real data studies have demonstrated the prediction performance and effectiveness of the proposed method over several state-of-the-art methods.

Generalized functional linear model with a point process predictor

Point process data have become increasingly popular these days. For example, many of the data captured in electronic health records (EHR) are in the format of point process data. It is of great interest to study the association between a point process predictor and a scalar response using generalized functional linear regression models. Various generalized functional linear regression models have been developed under different settings in the past decades. However, existing methods can only deal with functional or longitudinal predictors, not point process predictors. In this article, we propose a novel generalized functional linear regression model for a point process predictor. Our proposed model is based on the joint modeling framework, where we adopt a log-Gaussian Cox process model for the point process predictor and a generalized linear regression model for the outcome. We also develop a new algorithm for fast model estimation based on the Gaussian variational approximation method. We conduct extensive simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our proposed method and compare it to competing methods. The performance of our proposed method is further demonstrated on an EHR dataset of patients admitted into the intensive care units of the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2001 and 2008.

Complete Coronary Revascularization and Outcomes in Patients Who Underwent Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Insights from The REGROUP Trial

There is growing evidence in support of coronary complete revascularization (CR). Nonetheless, there is no universally accepted definition of CR in patients who undergo coronary bypass grafting surgery (CABG). We sought to investigate the outcomes of CR, defined as surgical revascularization of any territory supplied by a suitable coronary artery with ≥50% stenosis. We performed a preplanned subanalysis in the Randomized Trial of Endoscopic or Open Saphenous Vein Graft Harvesting (REGROUP) clinical trial cohort. Of 1,147 patients who underwent CABG, 810 (70.6%) received CR. The primary outcome was a composite of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), including death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or repeat revascularization over a median 4.7 years of follow-up. MACE occurred in 175 patients (21.6%) in the CR group and 86 patients (25.5%) in the incomplete revascularization (IR) group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67 to 1.13, p = 0.29). A total of 97 patients (12.0%) in the CR group and 48 patients (14.2%) in the IR group died (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.32, p = 0.67); nonfatal myocardial infarction occurred in 49 patients (6.0%) in the CR group and 30 patients (8.9%) in the IR group (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.2, p = 0.24), and repeat revascularization occurred in 62 patients (7.7%) in the CR group and 39 patients (11.6%) in the IR group (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.95, p = 0.027). In conclusion, in patients with a great burden of co-morbidities who underwent CABG in the REGROUP trial over a median follow-up period of a median 4.7 years, CR was associated with similar MACE rates but a reduced risk of repeat revascularization. Longer-term follow-up is warranted.

Incidence of diabetes mellitus and effect on mortality in adults with congenital heart disease

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, 1-2% of children are born with congenital heart disease (CHD) with 97% reaching adulthood.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to demonstrate the risk of diabetes in patients with CHD, and the influence of incident diabetes on mortality in CHD patients and controls.

METHODS

By combining data from patient registries, the incidence of adult-onset diabetes registered at age 35 or older, and subsequent mortality risk were analysed in two successive birth cohorts (born in 1930-1959 and 1960-1983), by type of CHD lesion and sex, compared with population-based controls matched for sex and year of birth and followed until a maximum of 87 years of age.

RESULTS

Out of 24,699 patients with CHD and 270,961 controls, 8.4% and 5.6%, respectively, were registered with a diagnosis of diabetes at the age of 35 or older, hazard ratio (HR) 1.47 (95% CI 1.40-1.54). The risk of diabetes was higher in the second birth cohort (HR of 1.74, 95% CI 1.54-1.95) and increased with complexity of CHD. After onset of DM, the total mortality among patients with CHD was 475 compared to 411/ 10,000 person-years among controls (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25).

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationwide cohort of patients with CHD and controls, the incidence of diabetes was almost 50% higher in patients with CHD, with higher risk in the most recent birth cohort and in those with conotruncal defects, with the combination of CHD and diabetes associated with a significantly increased mortality compared to diabetic controls.

Characterizing quantile-varying covariate effects under the accelerated failure time model

An important task in survival analysis is choosing a structure for the relationship between covariates of interest and the time-to-event outcome. For example, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model structures each covariate effect as a constant multiplicative shift in the outcome distribution across all survival quantiles. Though parsimonious, this structure cannot detect or capture effects that differ across quantiles of the distribution, a limitation that is analogous to only permitting proportional hazards in the Cox model. To address this, we propose a general framework for quantile-varying multiplicative effects under the AFT model. Specifically, we embed flexible regression structures within the AFT model and derive a novel formula for interpretable effects on the quantile scale. A regression standardization scheme based on the g-formula is proposed to enable the estimation of both covariate-conditional and marginal effects for an exposure of interest. We implement a user-friendly Bayesian approach for the estimation and quantification of uncertainty while accounting for left truncation and complex censoring. We emphasize the intuitive interpretation of this model through numerical and graphical tools and illustrate its performance through simulation and application to a study of Alzheimer's disease and dementia.

A transformation perspective on marginal and conditional models

Clustered observations are ubiquitous in controlled and observational studies and arise naturally in multicenter trials or longitudinal surveys. We present a novel model for the analysis of clustered observations where the marginal distributions are described by a linear transformation model and the correlations by a joint multivariate normal distribution. The joint model provides an analytic formula for the marginal distribution. Owing to the richness of transformation models, the techniques are applicable to any type of response variable, including bounded, skewed, binary, ordinal, or survival responses. We demonstrate how the common normal assumption for reaction times can be relaxed in the sleep deprivation benchmark data set and report marginal odds ratios for the notoriously difficult toe nail data. We furthermore discuss the analysis of two clinical trials aiming at the estimation of marginal treatment effects. In the first trial, pain was repeatedly assessed on a bounded visual analog scale and marginal proportional-odds models are presented. The second trial reported disease-free survival in rectal cancer patients, where the marginal hazard ratio from Weibull and Cox models is of special interest. An empirical evaluation compares the performance of the novel approach to general estimation equations for binary responses and to conditional mixed-effects models for continuous responses. An implementation is available in the tram add-on package to the R system and was benchmarked against established models in the literature.

Modeling biomarker variability in joint analysis of longitudinal and time-to-event data

The role of visit-to-visit variability of a biomarker in predicting related disease has been recognized in medical science. Existing measures of biological variability are criticized for being entangled with random variability resulted from measurement error or being unreliable due to limited measurements per individual. In this article, we propose a new measure to quantify the biological variability of a biomarker by evaluating the fluctuation of each individual-specific trajectory behind longitudinal measurements. Given a mixed-effects model for longitudinal data with the mean function over time specified by cubic splines, our proposed variability measure can be mathematically expressed as a quadratic form of random effects. A Cox model is assumed for time-to-event data by incorporating the defined variability as well as the current level of the underlying longitudinal trajectory as covariates, which, together with the longitudinal model, constitutes the joint modeling framework in this article. Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators are established for the present joint model. Estimation is implemented via an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm with fully exponential Laplace approximation used in E-step to reduce the computation burden due to the increase of the random effects dimension. Simulation studies are conducted to reveal the advantage of the proposed method over the two-stage method, as well as a simpler joint modeling approach which does not take into account biomarker variability. Finally, we apply our model to investigate the effect of systolic blood pressure variability on cardiovascular events in the Medical Research Council elderly trial, which is also the motivating example for this article.

Low-Level Expression of p-S6 Is Associated with Nodal Metastasis in Patients with Head and Neck Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is the second most common form of skin cancer. The incidence of metastasis for cSCC is estimated to be around 1.2-5%. Ribosomal protein S6 (p-S6) and the p21 protein (p21) are two proteins that play central roles in other cancers. These proteins may be equally important in cSCC, and together, these could constitute a good candidate for metastasis risk assessment of these patients. We investigate the relationship of p-S6 and p21 expression with the impact on the prognosis of head and neck cSCC (cSCCHN). p-S6 and p21 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry on paraffin-embedded tissue samples from 116 patients with cSCCHN and associations sought with clinical characteristics. Kaplan-Meier estimators and Cox proportional hazard regression models were also used. The expression of p-S6 was significantly inversely associated with tumor thickness, tumor size, desmoplastic growth, pathological stage, perineural invasion and tumor buds. p21 expression was significantly inversely correlated with >6 mm tumor thickness, desmoplastic growth, and perineural invasion. p-S6-negative expression significantly predicted an increased risk of nodal metastasis (HR = 2.63, 95% CI 1.51-4.54; p < 0.001). p21 expression was not found to be a significant risk factor for nodal metastasis. These findings demonstrate that p-S6-negative expression is an independent predictor of nodal metastasis. The immunohistochemical expression of p-S6 might aid in better risk stratification and management of patients with cSCCHN.

[A prospective study on the relationship between exposure to solid fuels for heating and its duration and the risk of morbidity of respiratory diseases among residents aged 30-79 years]

Objective: To research the association between exposure to solid fuels for heating and its duration and the risk of respiratory diseases morbidity. Methods: Data from the China Kadoorie Biobank project sited in Pengzhou City, Sichuan Province. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the association between exposure to solid fuels for heating and its duration and the risk of total respiratory diseases and the association between exposure to solid fuels for heating and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and pneumonia among respiratory diseases. Results: A total of 46 082 participants aged 30-79 years were enrolled, with 11 634 (25.25%) heating during the winter, of whom 8 885 (19.28%) used clean fuels and 2 749 (5.97%) used solid fuels, of whom 34 448 (74.75%) did not heat. After controlling for multiple confounding factors, Cox proportional hazard regression model was used, which revealed that compared with clean fuels, unheating could reduce the risk of total respiratory disease (HR=0.81,95%CI:0.77-0.86), COPD (HR=0.86,95%CI:0.78-0.95) and pneumonia (HR=0.80,95%CI:0.74-0.86), respectively. Exposure to solid fuels increased the risk of total respiratory disease (HR=1.10, 95%CI:1.01-1.20) and were not associated with COPD and pneumonia. Compared with no solid fuel exposure, the risk of total respiratory disease (1-19 years:HR=1.23, 95%CI:1.10-1.37; 20-39 years:HR=1.25, 95%CI:1.16-1.35; ≥40 years:HR=1.26, 95%CI:1.15-1.39) and COPD (1-19 years: HR=1.21, 95%CI:1.03-1.42; 20-39 years: HR=1.30, 95%CI:1.16-1.46; ≥40 years:HR=1.35, 95%CI:1.18-1.54) increased with the length of exposure of solid fuels (trend test P<0.001). Solid fuels exposure for 1-19 years and 20-39 years increased the risk of COPD by 23% (HR=1.23,95%CI:1.02-1.49) and 16% (HR=1.16, 95%CI:1.00-1.35). Conclusion: Heating solid fuels exposure increases the risk of total respiratory disease, COPD, and pneumonia.

[Immune reconstitution and influencing factors in HIV infected men who have sex with men with access to antiviral therapy in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2021]

Objective: To analyze immune reconstitution and influencing factors in HIV infected men who have sex with men (MSM) with access to antiviral therapy (ART) in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (Guangxi) during 2005-2021. Methods: The data were collected from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The study subjects were HIV infected MSM with access to the initial ART for ≥24 weeks in Guangxi from 2005 to 2021 and HIV RNA lower than the detection limit within 24 months. The proportion of infected MSM who had immune reconstitution after ART was calculated. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of immune reconstitution. Software SPSS 24.0 was used for statistical analysis. Results: A total of 3 200 HIV infected MSM were enrolled, in whom 15.56 % (498/3 200) had no immune reconstitution, 14.78% (473/3 200) had moderate immune reconstitution, and the rate of complete immune reconstitution was 69.66% (2 229/3 200). The M (Q1, Q3) of ART time for immune reconstitution was 12 (5, 27) months. Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model analysis results showed that compared with those with initial ART at age ≥30 years, WHO clinical stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ illness, baseline BMI <18.50 kg/m2 and baseline CD4+T lymphocyte (CD4) counts <200 cells/µl, HIV infected MSM with initial ART at age <30 years, WHO clinical stageⅠ/Ⅱ illness, baseline BMI≥24.00 kg/m2 and baseline CD4 counts ≥200 cells/µl were more likely to have complete immune reconstitution. Conclusions: In the HIV infected MSM in Guangxi, failures to achieve moderate and complete immune reconstitution were observed. Surveillance and ART regimen should be improved for key populations, such as those with older age and low baseline CD4 counts.

[Association between obesity and risk for all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes]

Objective: To investigate the association between obesity and the risk for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes (T2DM) patients. Methods: The participants were from a rural community-based T2DM patient cohort in Zhejiang Province. The study used the data collected from baseline survey in 2016 and follow-up until December 31, 2021. A total of 10 310 participants were included, excluding those who were lost in follow-up or had incomplete data in follow-up. According to BMI and waist circumference, the study subjects were divided into 6 groups: low body weight, normal body weight, simple abdominal obesity, simple body obesity, complex overweight and complex obesity. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality and their 95%CIs in T2DM patients with different obesity status. Results: The cumulative follow-up period was 57 049.47 person-years with an average follow-up of (5.53±0.89) person-years. During this period, 971 subjects died. The death density was 1 702.03/100 000 person-years. After adjusting for confounders, low-weight patients had a 104% increased risk for all-cause death compared with normal-weight patients (HR=2.04, 95%CI:1.42-2.92). The risk for all-cause death decreased by 34% (HR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.53-0.82), 22% (HR=0.78,95%CI: 0.66-0.92), 38% (HR=0.62, 95%CI: 0.49-0.78) in the patients with simple body obesity, complex overweight and complex obesity, respectively, there was no significant difference for all-cause death in the patients with simple abdominal obesity alone. In subgroup analysis, the risk of all-cause mortality increased in low-weight T2DM patients of different sexes and ages, the mortality risk in women with complex obesity was 50% lower than that in the women with normal body weight, but there was no significant difference in men in the comparison between complex obesity group and normal body weight group. The risk for all-cause mortality was significantly lower in ≥65 years old patients with simple body obesity, complex overweight and complex obesity than in patients with normal body weight (HR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.48-0.78; HR=0.76, 95%CI: 0.63-0.91; HR=0.56,95%CI: 0.42-0.73), there was no significant difference in the patients aged <65 years. There was no significant change in sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: There was an "obesity paradox" in the risk for all-cause mortality in T2DM patients. The risk of all-cause mortality in the low-weight patients was significantly higher than that in normal-weight patients, and the risk for death in the patients with simple body obesity or complex overweight and obesity were significantly lower.

[Associations of onset age, diabetes duration and glycated hemoglobin level with ischemic stroke risk in type 2 diabetes patients: a prospective cohort study]

Objective: To investigate the associations of onset age, diabetes duration, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels with ischemic stroke risk in type 2 diabetes patients. Methods: The participants were from Comprehensive Research on the Prevention and Control of the Diabetes in Jiangsu Province. The study used data from baseline survey from December 2013 to January 2014 and follow-up until December 31, 2021. After excluding the participants who had been diagnosed with stroke at baseline survey and those with incomplete information on onset age, diabetes duration, and HbA1c level, a total of 17 576 type 2 diabetes patients were included. Cox proportional hazard model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95%CI of onset age, diabetes duration, and HbA1c level for ischemic stroke. Results: During the median follow-up time of 8.02 years, 2 622 ischemic stroke cases were registered. Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model showed that a 5-year increase in type 2 diabetes onset age was significantly associated with a 5% decreased risk for ischemic stroke (HR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.92-0.99). A 5-year increase in diabetes duration was associated with a 5% increased risk for ischemic stroke (HR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.10). Higher HbA1c (per 1 standard deviation increase:HR=1.17, 95%CI: 1.13-1.21) was associated with an increased risk for ischemic stroke. Conclusion: The earlier onset age of diabetes, longer diabetes duration, and high levels of HbA1c are associated with an increased risk for ischemic stroke in type 2 diabetes patients.

Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist use and risk of thyroid cancer: Scandinavian cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether use of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP1) receptor agonists is associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer.

DESIGN

Scandinavian cohort study.

SETTING

Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, 2007-21.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients who started GLP1 receptor agonist treatment were compared with patients who started dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitor treatment, and in an additional analysis, patients who started sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Thyroid cancer identified from nationwide cancer registers. An active-comparator new user study design was used to minimise risks of confounding and time related biases from using real world studies of drug effects. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios, controlling for potential confounders with propensity score weighting.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up time was 3.9 years (standard deviation 3.5 years) in the GLP1 receptor agonist group and 5.4 years (standard deviation 3.5 years) in the DPP4 inhibitor group. 76 of 145 410 patients (incidence rate 1.33 events per 10 000 person years) treated with GLP1 receptor agonists and 184 of 291 667 patients (incidence rate 1.46 events per 10 000 person years) treated with DPP4 inhibitors developed thyroid cancer. GLP1 receptor agonist use was not associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 1.31; rate difference -0.13, 95% confidence interval -0.61 to 0.36 events per 10 000 person years). The hazard ratio for medullary thyroid cancer was 1.19 (0.37 to 3.86). In the additional analysis comparing the GLP1 receptor agonist group with the SGLT2 inhibitor group, the hazard ratio for thyroid cancer was 1.16 (0.65 to 2.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort study using nationwide data from three countries, GLP1 receptor agonist use was not associated with a substantially increased risk of thyroid cancer over a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. In the main analysis comparing GLP1 receptor agonists with DPP4 inhibitors, the upper limit of the confidence interval was consistent with no more than a 31% increase in relative risk.

Area-based disparities in non-small-cell lung cancer survival

BACKGROUND

In the Nordic countries, universal healthcare access has been effective in reducing socioeconomic disparities in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) management. However, other factors, such as proximity to healthcare facilities, may still affect access to care. This study aimed at investigating the influence of residential area on NSCLC survival.

METHODS

This population-based study utilized hospital records to identify NSCLC patients who underwent their initial treatment at Vaasa Central Hospital between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020. Patients were categorized based on their postal codes into urban areas (≤50 km from the hospital) and rural areas (>50 km from the hospital). Survival rates between these two groups were compared using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 321 patients were included in the study. Patients residing in rural areas (n = 104) exhibited poorer 12-month survival rates compared to their urban counterparts (n = 217) (unadjusted Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.38; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.01-1.89; p = 0.042). After adjusting for factors such as performance status, frailty, and stage at diagnosis in a multivariate Cox regression model, the adjusted HR increased to 1.47 (95% CI: 1.07-2.01; p = 0.017) for patients living in rural areas compared to those in urban areas.

INTERPRETATION

The study findings indicate that the distance to the hospital is associated with increased lung cancer mortality. This suggests that geographical proximity may play a crucial role in the disparities observed in NSCLC survival rates. Addressing these disparities should involve strategies aimed at improving healthcare accessibility, particularly for patients residing in rural areas, to enhance NSCLC outcomes and reduce mortality.

Different Sources of Fiber Intake and Risk of 17 Specific Cancers and All Cancers Combined: Prospective Study of 364,856 Participants in the UK Biobank

Inverse associations between dietary fiber (DF) and colorectal cancer risk are well-established. However, evidence is limited in relation to other cancer sites. This study, of 364,856 participants from the UK Biobank, aimed to evaluate the associations between total and source-specific partial DF and risk of 17 specific cancers and all cancers combined. Partial DF was derived from baseline touchscreen questionnaire data on cereal, bread, fruit, and vegetable intake. The outcomes were incident cancer at 17 sites and all cancers combined. Cox proportional hazards models were applied. Over a median 8.8-year follow-up period, 30,725 people were diagnosed with cancer. After adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, those in the highest quintile of partial DF compared with the lowest quintile (<9.6 vs ≥19.1 g/day) had 10% lower risk of cancer overall, with the greatest risk reductions observed for cervical (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.14; 0.82), esophageal (HR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.52; 0.84), lung (HR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.59; 0.76), bladder (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.56; 0.91), and kidney (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.61; 0.92) cancers. Associations between DF and lung cancer were observed only in current and former smokers. Higher DF intake, in particular cereal fiber and fruit and vegetable fiber, was associated with a lower risk of overall and multiple site-specific cancers.

Spatial-temporal Bayesian accelerated failure time models for survival endpoints with applications to prostate cancer registry data

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer after non-melanoma skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer deaths in US men. Its incidence and mortality rates vary substantially across geographical regions and over time, with large disparities by race, geographic regions (i.e., Appalachia), among others. The widely used Cox proportional hazards model is usually not applicable in such scenarios owing to the violation of the proportional hazards assumption. In this paper, we fit Bayesian accelerated failure time models for the analysis of prostate cancer survival and take dependent spatial structures and temporal information into account by incorporating random effects with multivariate conditional autoregressive priors. In particular, we relax the proportional hazards assumption, consider flexible frailty structures in space and time, and also explore strategies for handling the temporal variable. The parameter estimation and inference are based on a Monte Carlo Markov chain technique under a Bayesian framework. The deviance information criterion is used to check goodness of fit and to select the best candidate model. Extensive simulations are performed to examine and compare the performances of models in different contexts. Finally, we illustrate our approach by using the 2004-2014 Pennsylvania Prostate Cancer Registry data to explore spatial-temporal heterogeneity in overall survival and identify significant risk factors.

Integration of pathologic characteristics, genetic risk and lifestyle exposure for colorectal cancer survival assessment

The development of an effective survival prediction tool is key for reducing colorectal cancer mortality. Here, we apply a three-stage study to devise a polygenic prognostic score (PPS) for stratifying colorectal cancer overall survival. Leveraging two cohorts of 3703 patients, we first perform a genome-wide survival association analysis to develop eight candidate PPSs. Further using an independent cohort with 470 patients, we identify the 287 variants-derived PPS (i.e., PPS287) achieving an optimal prediction performance [hazard ratio (HR) per SD = 1.99, P = 1.76 × 10-8], accompanied by additional tests in two external cohorts, with HRs per SD of 1.90 (P = 3.21 × 10-14; 543 patients) and 1.80 (P = 1.11 × 10-9; 713 patients). Notably, the detrimental impact of pathologic characteristics and genetic risk could be attenuated by a healthy lifestyle, yielding a 7.62% improvement in the 5-year overall survival rate. Therefore, our findings demonstrate the integrated contribution of pathologic characteristics, germline variants, and lifestyle exposure to the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients.

Sex-based association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and adverse outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting

BACKGROUND

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is shown to be an independent protective factor against coronary artery diseases (CAD). Yet there are limited studies focusing on the association between HDL-C and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery outcomes.

HYPOTHESIS

Low levels of HDL-C are associated with higher incidence of adverse outcomes in patients undergoing CABG.

METHODS

This registry-based study included 17,772 patients who underwent elective isolated CABG between 2007 and 2017. Patients were classified into low and desirable HDL-C groups based on their serum HDL-C levels at admission and were followed for one-year post-surgery. The study population included 13,321 patients with low HDL-C and 4,451 with desirable HDL-C. proportional hazard Cox models were performed to evaluate the association between HDL-C levels and incidence of mortality as well as major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), while adjusting for potential confounders. Moreover, participants were stratified based on sex and the association was also investigated in each subgroup separately.

RESULTS

No significant difference was found between the groups regarding incidence of both mortality and MACCE, after adjusting with Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) [HR (95%CI): 0.84 (0.46-1.53), p-value:0.575 and HR (95% CI): 0.91 (0.56-1.50), p-value:0.733, respectively]. According to the sex-based subgroup analysis, no significant association was observed after adjustment with IPW analysis. However, as we examined the association between the interaction of HDL-C levels, sex and cardiovascular outcomes, we found a significant association (HR;1.19 (95%CI: 1.04-1.45); p = 0.030).

CONCLUSION

HDL-C level was not associated with either mortality or MACCE during one year after CABG procedure. Sex-based analysis showed that in males, HDL-C is significantly more protective against these outcomes, compared to females. Further studies are necessary to elucidate the exact mechanisms mediating such association.

High blood pressure is associated with increased risk of future fracture, but not vice versa

The association between high blood pressure and fracture showed obvious discrepancies and were mostly between hypertension with future fracture, but rarely between fracture and incident hypertension. The present study aims to investigate the associations of hypertension with future fracture, and fracture with incident hypertension. We included adult participants from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) prospective cohort in 1997-2015 (N = 10,227), 2000-2015 (N = 10,547), 2004-2015 (N = 10,909), and 2006-2015 (N = 11,121) (baseline in 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006 respectively and outcome in 2015). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. In the analysis of the association between hypertension and future fracture, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 1.34 (0.95-1.90) in 1997-2015, 1.40 (1.04-1.88) in 2000-2015, 1.32 (0.98-1.78) in 2004-2015, and 1.38 (1.01-1.88) in 2006-2015. In the analysis of the association between fracture and incident hypertension, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 1.28 (0.96-1.72) in 1997-2015, 1.18 (0.94-1.49) in 2000-2015, 1.12 (0.89-1.40) in 2004-2015, and 1.09 (0.85-1.38) in 2006-2015. The present study showed that hypertension history was associated with increased risk of future fracture, but not vice versa.

High CASC expression predicts poor prognosis of lung cancer: A systematic review with meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The long non-coding RNA cancer susceptibility candidate (CASC) has abnormal expression in lung cancer tissues and may correlate with lung cancer prognosis. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the association between CASC expression and the cancer prognosis.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were searched until April 1, 2023, to obtain the relevant literature. Studies that met the predefined eligibility criteria were included, and their quality was independently assessed by 2 investigators according to the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) score. Detailed information was obtained, such as first author, year of publication, and number of patients. Hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was extracted and grouped to assess the relationship between CASC expression and cancer prognosis. The dichotomous data was merged and shown as the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% CI was extracted to assess the relationship between CASC expression and clinicopathological parameters.

RESULTS

A total of 12 studies with 746 patients with lung cancer were included in the meta-analysis. The expression levels of lncRNA CASC2 and CASC7 were decreased, while those of CASC9, 11, 15, and 19 were induced in lung cancer tissues compared with paracancerous tissues. In the population with low CASC expression (CASC2 and CASC7), high CASC expression indicated a good lung cancer prognosis (HR = 0.469; 95% CI, 0.271-0.668). Conversely, in the population with high CASC expression (CASC9, 11, 15, and 19), high CASC expression predicted a poor lung cancer outcome (HR = 1.910; 95% CI, 1.628-2.192). High CASC expression also predicted worse disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 2.803; 95% CI, 1.804-6.319). Combined OR with 95% CI revealed an insignificant positive association between high CASC expression and advanced TNM stage (OR = 1.061; 95% CI, 0.775-1.454), LNM (OR = 0.962; 95% CI, 0.724-1.277), tumor size (OR = 0.942; 95% CI, 0.667-1.330), and histological grade (OR = 1.022; 95% CI, 0.689-1.517).

CONCLUSION

The CASC expression levels negatively correlate with lung cancer prognosis. Therefore, CASC expression may serve as a prognostic marker and a potential therapeutic target for lung cancer.

Incidence, Correlates, and Prognostic Significance of Mixed Response in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

Mixed response (MR), a scenario featuring discordant tumor changes, has been reported primarily with targeted therapies or immunotherapy. We determined the incidence and prognostic significance of MR in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with cytotoxic chemotherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analyzed patient-level data from ECOG-ACRIN E5508 (carboplatin-paclitaxel + bevacizumab induction followed by randomization to maintenance therapy regimens). For patients with at least 2 target lesions and available measurements after cycle 2, we characterized response as homogeneous response (HR, similar behavior of all lesions), MR (similar behavior but >30% difference in magnitude of best and least responding lesions), or true mixed response (TMR, best and least responding lesions showing different behavior: ≥10% growth versus ≥10% shrinkage). We compared category characteristics using Mann-Whitney U and Chi-square tests, and overall survival (OS) using log-rank test and Cox models.

RESULTS

Among 965 evaluable patients, HR occurred in 609 patients (63%), MR in 208 (22%), and TMR in 148 (15%). Median OS was 13.6 months for HR, 12.0 months for MR, and 7.6 months for TMR (P < .001). Compared to HR, TMR had inferior OS among stable disease cases (HR 1.62; 95% CI, 1.23-2.12; P < .001) and a trend toward inferior OS among progressive disease cases (HR 1.39; 95% CI, 0.83-2.33; P = .2). In multivariate analysis, TMR was associated with worse OS (HR 1.48; 95% CI, 1.22-1.79; P < .001).

CONCLUSION

True mixed response occurs in a substantial minority of lung cancer cases treated with chemotherapy and independently confers poor prognosis.

Screening, Diagnosis, and Initial Care of Asian and White Patients With Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

Data on the care of Asian patients with lung cancer in the US are limited; however, lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in this population.

METHODS

Demographics, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening, disease characteristics, and treatment history were compared between Asian and White patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer from 2014 to 2019 identified from Tufts Medical Center cancer registry. The influence of race on presenting stage was assessed via ordinal logistic regression. Time to treatment initiation (TTI) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed via log-rank tests. The impact of race on OS was evaluated via multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

Asian patients (N = 144) were more likely to prefer non-English languages, use interpreters, be never-smokers, and harbor EGFR alterations, compared to White patients (N = 472), and to be diagnosed with later-stage lung cancer (odds ratio: 2.14, P < .001), had longer median TTI (early stage: 2.30 vs. 1.43 months, P = .035; curative stage: 1.88 vs. 1.20 months, P = .041) and more often did not receive cancer-directed therapy (12.6% vs. 5.7%, P = .01). Screening LDCT was done only in 11.9% of Asian and 21.4% of White patients (P = .20) who would have met screening criteria prior to diagnosis (N = 215). Median OS was similar between Asian and White patients (not reached vs. 74.8 months, P = .17). Multivariable Cox model suggested better OS for Asian patients (hazard ratio: 0.57, P = .01).

CONCLUSION

In our study, Asian patients presented with later-stage lung cancer, had treatment delays, and more often did not receive treatment, compared to White patients, yet did not have inferior survival.

Treatment patterns and persistence on disease modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis and its associated factors

BACKGROUND

Effective interventions for Multiple Sclerosis require timely treatment optimization which usually involves switching disease modifying therapies. The patterns of prescription and the reasons for changing treatment in people with MS, especially in low prevalence populations, are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the persistence, reasons of DMT switches and prescription patterns in a cohort of Colombian people with MS.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study including patients with confirmed MS with at least one visit at our centre. We estimated the overall incidence rate of medication changes and assessed the persistence on medication with Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for individual medications and according to efficacy and mode of administration. The factors associated with changing medications were assessed using adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models. The reasons for switching medication changes were described, and the prescription patterns were assessed using network analysis, with measures of centrality.

RESULTS

Seven hundred one patients with MS were included. Mean age was 44.3 years, and 67.9% were female. Mean disease duration was 11.3 years and 84.5% had relapsing MS at onset, with median EDSS of 1.0. Treatment was started in 659 (94%) of the patients after a mean of 3 years after MS symptom onset. Among them, 39.5% maintained their initial DMT, 29.9% experienced a single DMT change, while 18.7% went through two, and 11.9% had three or more DMT changes until the final follow-up. The total number of treatment modifications reached 720, resulting in an incidence rate of 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.17) per patient per year The median time to change after the first DMT was 3.75 years, and was not different according to the mode of administration or efficacy classification. The main reasons for changing DMT were MS activity (relapses, 56.7%; MRI activity, 18.6%), followed by non-serious adverse events (15.3%) and disability (11.1%). Younger age at MS onset, care under our centre and insurer status were the main determinants of treatment change. Network analysis showed that interferons and fingolimod were the most influential DMTs.

CONCLUSIONS

A majority of patients switch medications, mostly due to disease activity, and in association with age and insurer status.