Seasonal trends of viral respiratory tract infections in the tropics

Multi-faceted analysis and prediction for the outbreak of pediatric respiratory syncytial virus

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of pediatric hospitalizations. This article aims to utilize multisource data and leverage the tensor methods to uncover distinct RSV geographic clusters and develop an accurate RSV prediction model for future seasons.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study utilizes 5-year RSV data from sources, including medical claims, CDC surveillance data, and Google search trends. We conduct spatiotemporal tensor analysis and prediction for pediatric RSV in the United States by designing (i) a nonnegative tensor factorization model for pediatric RSV diseases and location clustering; (ii) and a recurrent neural network tensor regression model for county-level trend prediction using the disease and location features.

RESULTS

We identify a clustering hierarchy of pediatric diseases: Three common geographic clusters of RSV outbreaks were identified from independent sources, showing an annual RSV trend shifting across different US regions, from the South and Southeast regions to the Central and Northeast regions and then to the West and Northwest regions, while precipitation and temperature were found as correlative factors with the coefficient of determination R2≈0.5, respectively. Our regression model accurately predicted the 2022-2023 RSV season at the county level, achieving R2≈0.3 mean absolute error MAE < 0.4 and a Pearson correlation greater than 0.75, which significantly outperforms the baselines with P-values <.05.

CONCLUSION

Our proposed framework provides a thorough analysis of RSV disease in the United States, which enables healthcare providers to better prepare for potential outbreaks, anticipate increased demand for services and supplies, and save more lives with timely interventions.

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics

INTRODUCTION

It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

METHODS

We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.

RESULTS

During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

Seasonality and risk factor analysis of respiratory syncytial virus infection in children in Taiwan-A retrospective study from 1995 to 2005

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the important pathogens leading to acute respiratory tract infection in infants and young children. We aimed to investigate the seasonality of RSV infection in different parts of Taiwan and to delineate the risk factors for severe RSV infections. We collected RSV-infected patients' data by retrospective chart review. A total of 1740 RSV-infected children aged under 18 years were enrolled. The infection was acquired during hospitalization in 103 (7.1%) children, while none of them required ventilator support or needed intensive care before RSV infection. The need for intensive care or ventilator support was significantly associated with congenital heart disease (CHD), chronic lung disease, and neuromuscular diseases. Age <1 year and nosocomially acquired infection are also significant predictors for the need of intensive care. Only the presence of CHD, especially acyanotic CHD, was significantly associated with a fatal outcome. RSV infection occurs all year round. Monthly distribution of RSV infections in Northern Taiwan showed a bimodal pattern, with one peak from March to May, and another from August to October. The distribution in Southern Taiwan showed a single peak from April to July. The occurrence of RSV correlates positively with temperature and rain. The bimodal seasonal distribution pattern in Northern Taiwan may be a transitional pattern shifting from a single high winter peak in temperate areas to a wider summer peak in tropical areas. Continuous surveillance is needed to explore the possible effect of global warming on the seasonality of RSV infection.

Spatiotemporal effects of meteorological conditions on global influenza peaks

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have suggested that meteorological conditions such as temperature and absolute humidity are highly indicative of influenza outbreaks. However, the explanatory power of meteorological factors on the seasonal influenza peaks varied widely between countries at different latitudes.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to explore the modification effects of meteorological factors on the seasonal influenza peaks in multi-countries.

METHODS

Data on influenza positive rate (IPR) were collected across 57 countries and data on meteorological factors were collected from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). We used linear regression and generalized additive models to investigate the spatiotemporal associations between meteorological conditions and influenza peaks in cold and warm seasons.

RESULTS

Influenza peaks were significantly correlated with months with both lower and higher temperatures. In temperate countries, the average intensity of cold season peaks was stronger than that of warm season peaks. However, the average intensity of warm season peaks was stronfger than of cold season peaks in tropical countries. Temperature and specific humidity had synergistic effects on influenza peaks at different latitudes, stronger in temperate countries (cold season: R2=0.90; warm season: R2=0.84) and weaker in tropical countries (cold season: R2=0.64; warm season: R2=0.03). Furthermore, the effects could be divided into cold-dry and warm-humid modes. The temperature transition threshold between the two modes was 16.5-19.5 °C. During the transition from cold-dry mode to warm-humid mode, the average 2 m specific humidity increased by 2.15 times, illustrating that transporting a large amount of water vapor may compensate for the negative effect of rising temperatures on the spread of the influenza virus.

CONCLUSION

Differences in the global influenza peaks were related to the synergistic influence of temperature and specific humidity. The global influenza peaks could be divided into cold-dry and warm-humid modes, and specific thresholds of meteorological conditions were needed for the transition of the two modes.

Bidirectional thermo-regulating hydrogel composite for autonomic thermal homeostasis

Thermal homeostasis is an essential physiological function for preserving the optimal state of complex organs within the human body. Inspired by this function, here, we introduce an autonomous thermal homeostatic hydrogel that includes infrared wave reflecting and absorbing materials for improved heat trapping at low temperatures, and a porous structure for enhanced evaporative cooling at high temperatures. Moreover, an optimized auxetic pattern was designed as a heat valve to further amplify heat release at high temperatures. This homeostatic hydrogel provides effective bidirectional thermoregulation with deviations of 5.04 °C ± 0.55 °C and 5.85 °C ± 0.46 °C from the normal body temperature of 36.5 °C, when the external temperatures are 5 °C and 50 °C, respectively. The autonomous thermoregulatory characteristics of our hydrogel may provide a simple solution to people suffering from autonomic nervous system disorders and soft robotics that are susceptible to sudden temperature fluctuations.

3D engineered tissue models for studying human-specific infectious viral diseases

Viral infections cause damage to various organ systems by inducing organ-specific symptoms or systemic multi-organ damage. Depending on the infection route and virus type, infectious diseases are classified as respiratory, nervous, immune, digestive, or skin infections. Since these infectious diseases can widely spread in the community and their catastrophic effects are severe, identification of their causative agent and mechanisms underlying their pathogenesis is an urgent necessity. Although infection-associated mechanisms have been studied in two-dimensional (2D) cell culture models and animal models, they have shown limitations in organ-specific or human-associated pathogenesis, and the development of a human-organ-mimetic system is required. Recently, three-dimensional (3D) engineered tissue models, which can present human organ-like physiology in terms of the 3D structure, utilization of human-originated cells, recapitulation of physiological stimuli, and tight cell–cell interactions, were developed. Furthermore, recent studies have shown that these models can recapitulate infection-associated pathologies. In this review, we summarized the recent advances in 3D engineered tissue models that mimic organ-specific viral infections. First, we briefly described the limitations of the current 2D and animal models in recapitulating human-specific viral infection pathology. Next, we provided an overview of recently reported viral infection models, focusing particularly on organ-specific infection pathologies. Finally, a future perspective that must be pursued to reconstitute more human-specific infectious diseases is presented.

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3D in vitro models are different from the traditional model in the infection process.

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Human-specific infection research requires a 3D microenvironment and human cells.

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3D in vitro infectious models can be useful for basic research on infectious disease.

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3D in vitro infectious models recapitulate the complex cell-virus-immune interaction.

Determining the Relationship of Meteorological Factors and Severe Pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Central Peninsular Malaysia

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen causing viral respiratory tract infections among younger children worldwide. The influence of meteorological factors on RSV seasonal activity is well-established for temperate countries; however, in subtropical countries such as Malaysia, relatively stable temperate climates do not clearly support this trend, and the available data are contradictory. Better understanding of meteorological factors and seasonality of RSV will allow effective strategic health management relating to RSV infection, particularly immunoprophylaxis of high-risk infants with palivizumab. Retrospectively, from 2017 to 2021, we examined the association between various meteorological factors (rainfall, rainy days, temperature, and relative humidity) and the incidence of RSV in children aged less than 12 years in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. RSV activity peaked in two periods (July to August and October to December), which was significantly correlated with the lowest rainfall (p < 0.007) and number of rainy days (p < 0.005). RSV prevalence was also positively associated with temperature (p < 0.006) and inversely associated with relative humidity (p < 0.006). Based on our findings, we recommend that immunoprophylaxis with palivizumab be administered in children aged less than 2 years where transmission of RSV is postulated to be the highest after the end of two monsoon seasons.

The influence of air quality and meteorological variations on influenza A and B virus infections in a paediatric population in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

Influenza is an important cause of paediatric illness across the globe. However, information about the relationships between air pollution, meteorological variability and paediatric influenza A and B infections in tropical settings is limited.

METHODS

We analysed all daily reports of influenza A and B infections in children <5 years old obtained from the largest specialist women and children's hospital in Singapore. In separate negative binomial regression models, we assessed the dependence of paediatric influenza A and B infections on air quality and meteorological variability, using multivariable fractional polynomial modelling and adjusting for time-varying confounders.

RESULTS

Approximately 80% of 7329 laboratory-confirmed reports were caused by influenza A. We observed positive associations between sulphur dioxide (SO₂) exposure and the subsequent risk of infection with both influenza types. We observed evidence of a harvesting effect of SO₂ on Influenza A but not Influenza B. Ambient temperature was associated with a decline in influenza A reports (Relative Risk at lag 5 [RR_lag5]: 0.949, 95% CI: 0.916-0.983). Rainfall was positively associated with a subsequent increase in influenza A reports (RR_lag3: 1.044, 95% CI: 1.017-1.071). Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentration was positively associated with influenza B reports (RR_lag5: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.005-1.025). There was a non-linear association between CO and influenza B reports. Absolute humidity increased the ensuing risk of influenza B (RR_lag5: 4.799, 95% CI: 2.277-10.118). Influenza A and B infections displayed dissimilar but predictable within-year seasonal patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed different independent associations between air quality and meteorological variability with paediatric influenza A and B infections. Anticipated seasonal infection peaks and variations in air quality and meteorological parameters can inform the timing of community measures aimed at reducing influenza infection risk.

The influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza activity in China

Previous research has extensively studied the seasonalities of human influenza infections and the effect of specific climatic factors in different regions. However, there is limited understanding of the influences of monsoons. This study applied generalized additive model with monthly surveillance data from mainland China to explore the influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza in China. The results suggested two influenza active periods in northern China and three active periods in southern China. The study found that the northerly advancement of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) influences the summer influenza spatio-temporal patterns in both southern and northern China. At the interannual scale, the north-south converse effect of EASM on influenza activity is mainly due to the converse effect of EASM on humidity and precipitation. Within the annual scale, influenza activity in southern China gradually reaches its maximum during the summer exacerbated by the northerly advancement of EASM. Furthermore, the winter epidemic in China is related to the low temperature and humidity influenced by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Moreover, the active period in transition season is related partially to the large rapid temperature change influenced by the transition of EAWM and EASM. Despite the delayed onset and instability, the climatic condition influenced by the East Asian Monsoon is one of the potential key drivers of influenza activity.

Effects of climatic factors on the prevalence of influenza virus infection in Cheonan, Korea

Big data can be used to correlate diseases and climatic factors. The prevalence of influenza (flu) virus, accounting for a large proportion of respiratory infections, suggests that the effect of climate variables according to seasonal dynamics of influenza virus infections should be investigated. Here, trends in flu virus detection were analyzed using data from 9,010 tests performed between January 2012 and December 2018 at Dankook University Hospital, Cheonan, Korea. We compared the detection of the flu virus in Cheonan area and its association with climate change. The flu virus detection rate was 9.9% (894/9,010), and the detection rate was higher for flu virus A (FLUAV; 6.9%) than for flu virus B (FLUBV; 3.0%). Both FLUAV and FLUBV infections are considered an epidemic each year. We identified 43.1% (n = 385) and 35.0% (n = 313) infections in children aged < 10 years and adults aged > 60 years, respectively. The combination of these age groups encompassed 78.1% (n = 698/894) of the total data. Flu virus infections correlated with air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure, particulate matter, and wind chill temperature (P < 0.001). However, the daily temperature range did not significantly correlate with the flu detection results. This is the first study to identify the relationship between long-term flu virus infection with temperature in the temperate region of Cheonan.

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses

This review seeks to explain three features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed generations of virologists: (1) the seasonal timing of respiratory illness and the rapid response of outbreaks to weather, specifically temperature; (2) the common viruses causing respiratory illness worldwide, including year-round disease in the Tropics; (3) the rapid arrival and termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other viruses. The inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality is discussed, and a simple hypothesis is proposed, called temperature dependent viral tropism (TDVT), that is compatible with the above features of respiratory illness. TDVT notes that viruses can spread more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining host mobility) and suggests that endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific viral tropism within the human body, whereby they replicate most rapidly at temperatures below body temperature. This can confine them to the upper respiratory tract and allow them to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. Biochemical and tissue-culture studies show that 'wild' respiratory viruses show such natural thermal sensitivity. The typical early autumn surge of colds and the occurrence of respiratory illness in the Tropics year-round at intermediate levels are explained by the tendency for strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. TDVT has important practical implications for preventing and treating respiratory illness including Covid-19. It is testable with many options for experiments to increase our understanding of viral seasonality and pathogenicity.

Influenza A and B outbreaks differed in their associations with climate conditions in Shenzhen, China

Under the variant climate conditions in the transitional regions between tropics and subtropics, the impacts of climate factors on influenza subtypes have rarely been evaluated. With the available influenza A (Flu-A) and influenza B (Flu-B) outbreak data in Shenzhen, China, which is an excellent example of a transitional marine climate, the associations of multiple climate variables with these outbreaks were explored in this study. Daily laboratory-confirmed influenza virus and climate data were collected from 2009 to 2015. Potential impacts of daily mean/maximum/minimum temperatures (T/T_max/T_min), relative humidity (RH), wind velocity (V), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were analyzed using the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and generalized additive model (GAM). Under its local climate partitions, Flu-A mainly prevailed in summer months (May to June), and a second peak appeared in early winter (December to January). Flu-B outbreaks usually occurred in transitional seasons, especially in autumn. Although low temperature caused an instant increase in both Flu-A and Flu-B risks, its effect could persist for up to 10 days for Flu-B and peak at 17 C (relative risk (RR) = 14.16, 95% CI: 7.46-26.88). For both subtypes, moderate-high temperature (28 C) had a significant but delayed effect on influenza, especially for Flu-A (RR = 26.20, 95% CI: 13.22-51.20). The Flu-A virus was sensitive to RH higher than 76%, while higher Flu-B risks were observed at both low (< 65%) and high (> 83%) humidity. Flu-A was active for a short term after exposure to large DTR (e.g., DTR = 10 C, RR = 12.45, 95% CI: 6.50-23.87), whereas Flu-B mainly circulated under stable temperatures. Although the overall wind speed in Shenzhen was low, moderate wind (2-3 m/s) was found to favor the outbreaks of both subtypes. This study revealed the thresholds of various climatic variables promoting influenza outbreaks, as well as the distinctions between the flu subtypes. These data can be helpful in predicting seasonal influenza outbreaks and minimizing the impacts, based on integrated forecast systems coupled with short-term climate models.

Extreme Precipitation Events and Infectious Disease Risk: A Scoping Review and Framework for Infectious Respiratory Viruses

Extreme precipitation events (EPE) change the natural and built environments and alter human behavior in ways that facilitate infectious disease transmission. EPEs are expected with high confidence to increase in frequency and are thus of great public health importance. This scoping review seeks to summarize the mechanisms and severity of impacts of EPEs on infectious diseases, to provide a conceptual framework for the influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases, and to define areas of future study currently lacking in this field. The effects of EPEs are well-studied with respect to enteric, vector-borne, and allergic illness where they are shown to moderately increase risk of illness, but not well-understood in relation to infectious respiratory illness. We propose a framework for a similar influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory viruses through several plausible pathways: decreased UV radiation, increased ambient relative humidity, and changes to human behavior (increased time indoors and use of heating and cooling systems). However, limited work has evaluated meteorologic risk factors for infectious respiratory diseases. Future research is needed to evaluate the effects of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases using individual-level case surveillance, fine spatial scales, and lag periods suited to the incubation periods of the disease under study, as well as a full characterization of susceptible, vulnerable, and sensitive population characteristics.

Influenza Virus: Tracking, Predicting, and Forecasting

Influenza is a common respiratory infection that causes considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide each year. In recent years, along with the improvement in computational resources, there have been a number of important developments in the science of influenza surveillance and forecasting. Influenza surveillance systems have been improved by synthesizing multiple sources of information. Influenza forecasting has developed into an active field, with annual challenges in the United States that have stimulated improved methodologies. Work continues on the optimal approaches to assimilating surveillance data and information on relevant driving factors to improve estimates of the current situation (nowcasting) and to forecast future dynamics.

Viral burden and diversity in acute respiratory tract infections in hospitalized children in wet and dry zones of Sri Lanka

The present study was done to identify the viral diversity, seasonality and burden associated with childhood acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) in Sri Lanka. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) of hospitalized children (1 month-5 years) with ARTI were collected in 2 centers (wet and dry zones) from March 2013 to August 2014. Respiratory viral antigen detection by immunofluorescence assay (IFA) was used to identify the infecting viruses. IFA negative 100 NPA samples were tested for human metapeumovirus (hMPV), human bocavirus and corona viruses by polymerase chain reaction. Of the 443 and 418 NPAs, 37.2% and 39.4% were positive for any of the 8 different respiratory viruses tested from two centers studied. Viral co-infection was detected with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in both centers. Peak viral detection was noted in the wet zone from May-July 2013 and 2014 and in the dry zone from December-January 2014 suggesting a local seasonality for viral ARTI. RSV showed a clear seasonality with a direct correlation of monthly RSV infections with rainy days in the wet zone and an inverse correlation with temperature in both centers. The case fatality rate was 2.7% for RSV associated ARTI. The overall disability adjusted life years was 335.9 and for RSV associated ARTI it was 241.8. RSV was the commonly detected respiratory virus with an annual seasonality and distribution in rainy seasons in the dry and wet zones of Sri Lanka. Identifying the virus and seasonality will contribute to employ preventive measures and reduce the empirical use of antibiotics in resource limited settings.

Climate variability and seasonal patterns of paediatric parainfluenza infections in the tropics: An ecological study in Singapore

OBJECTIVES

Evidence of the relationship between climate variability, air pollution and human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) infections has been inconsistent. We assessed this in a paediatric population from a highly urbanized tropical city-state.

METHODS

We analysed all reports of HPIV infections in children <5 years old obtained from a major specialist women and children's hospital in Singapore. Assuming a negative binomial distribution and using multivariable fractional polynomial modelling, we examined the relations between climate variability, air quality and the risk of HPIV infections, adjusting for time-varying confounders.

RESULTS

We identified 6393 laboratory-confirmed HPIV infections from 2009 to 2019. Every 1 °C decline in temperature was associated with a 5.8% increase (RR: 0.943, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI]: 0.903-0.984) in HPIV infection risk 6 days later. Every 10% decrease in relative humidity was associated with a 15.8% cumulative increase in HPIV risk over the next 6 days (cumulative RR: 0.842, 95% CI: 0.771-0.919). Rainfall was positively associated with HPIV risk 2 days later (RR: 1.021, 95% CI: 1.000-1.043). A within-year seasonal rise of HPIV was driven by HPIV-3 and HPIV-1 and preceded by a seasonal decline in temperature. Gender was an effect modifier of the climate-HPIV relationship. Air quality was not associated with HPIV risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates a close association between HPIV infection risk and tropical climate variability. The climate dependence and seasonal predictability of HPIV can inform the timing of community campaigns aimed at reducing infection risk and the development of hospital resources and climate adaption plans.

Defining the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus around the world: National and subnational surveillance data from 12 countries

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are one of the leading causes of lower respiratory tract infections and have a major burden on society. For prevention and control to be deployed effectively, an improved understanding of the seasonality of RSV is necessary.

Objectives

The main objective of this study was to contribute to a better understanding of RSV seasonality by examining the GERi multi‐country surveillance dataset.

Methods

RSV seasons were included in the analysis if they contained ≥100 cases. Seasonality was determined using the “average annual percentage” method. Analyses were performed at a subnational level for the United States and Brazil.

Results

We included 601 425 RSV cases from 12 countries. Most temperate countries experienced RSV epidemics in the winter, with a median duration of 10–21 weeks. Not all epidemics fit this pattern in a consistent manner, with some occurring later or in an irregular manner. More variation in timing was observed in (sub)tropical countries, and we found substantial differences in seasonality at a subnational level. No association was found between the timing of the epidemic and the dominant RSV subtype.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that geographical location or climatic characteristics cannot be used as a definitive predictor for the timing of RSV epidemics and highlight the need for (sub)national data collection and analysis.

Independent association between meteorological factors, PM2.5, and seasonal influenza activity in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China

BACKGROUND

Due to variations in climatic conditions, the effects of meteorological factors and PM2.5 on influenza activity, particularly in subtropical regions, vary in existing literature. In this study, we examined the relationship between influenza activity, meteorological parameters, and PM2.5 .

METHODS

A total of 20 165 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, were documented in our dataset and aggregated into weekly counts for downstream analysis. We employed a combination of the quasi-Poisson-generalized additive model and the distributed lag non-linear model to examine the relationship of interest, controlling for long-term trends, seasonal trends, and holidays.

RESULTS

A hockey-stick association was found between absolute humidity and the risk of influenza infections. The overall cumulative adjusted relative risk (ARR) was statistically significant when weekly mean absolute humidity was low (<10 µg/m3 ) and high (>17.5 µg/m3 ). A slightly higher ARR was observed when weekly mean temperature reached over 30.5°C. A statistically significantly higher ARR was observed when weekly mean relative humidity dropped below 67%. ARR increased statistically significantly with increasing rainfall. For PM2.5 , the ARR was marginally statistically insignificant. In brief, high temperature, wet and dry conditions, and heavy rainfall were the major risk factors associated with a higher risk of influenza infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study contributes additional knowledge to the understanding of the effects of various environmental factors on influenza activities. Our findings shall be useful and important for the development of influenza surveillance and early warning systems.

Burden and Cost of Hospitalization for Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children, Singapore

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of pediatric acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide. Detailed data on the health and economic burden of RSV disease are lacking from tropical settings with year-round RSV transmission. We developed a statistical and economic model to estimate the annual incidence and healthcare cost of medically attended RSV disease among young children in Singapore, using Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertainty in model parameters. RSV accounted for 708 hospitalizations in children <6 months of age (33.5/1,000 child-years) and 1,096 in children 6–29 months of age (13.2/1,000 child-years). The cost of hospitalization was SGD 5.7 million (US $4.3 million) at 2014 prices; patients bore 60% of the cost. RSV-associated disease burden in tropical settings in Asia is high and comparable to other settings. Further work incorporating efficacy data from ongoing vaccine trials will help to determine the potential cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies.

COVID-19 public health measures: a reduction in hospital admissions for COPD exacerbations

Hospitalisations for acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) carry significant morbidity and mortality. Respiratory viral infections (RVIs) are the most common cause of AECOPD and are associated with worse clinical outcomes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, public health measures, such as social distancing and universal masking, were originally implemented to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2; these public health measures were subsequently also observed to reduce transmission of other common circulating RVIs. In this study, we report a significant and sustained decrease in hospital admissions for all AECOPD as well as RVI-associated AECOPD, which coincided with the introduction of public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Respiratory Viral Pathogens in Children Evaluated at Military Treatment Facilities in Oahu, Hawaii From 2014 to 2018: Seasonality and Climatic Factors

Five-year retrospective analysis of respiratory viruses in children less than 18 years old at Tripler Army Medical Center and outlying clinics in Oahu. Respiratory syncytial virus and influenza A showed pronounced seasonality with peaks from September to December and December to March, respectively. Results provide a better understanding of the timing of viral preventive strategies in Oahu.

A time series analysis of the short-term association between climatic variables and acute respiratory infections in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are among the most common human illnesses globally. Previous studies that examined the associations between climate variability and ARIs or ARI pathogens have reported inconsistent findings. Few studies have been conducted in Southeast Asia to date, and the impact of climatic factors are not well-understood. This study aimed to investigate the short-term associations between climate variability and ARIs in Singapore.

METHODS

We obtained reports of ARIs from all government primary healthcare services from 2005 to 2019 and analysed their dependence on mean ambient temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature using the distributed lag non-linear framework. Separate negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the association between each temperature (mean, minimum, maximum temperature) and ARIs, adjusted for seasonality and long-term trend, rainfall, relative humidity, public holidays and autocorrelations. For temperature variables and relative humidity we reported cumulative relative risks (RRs) at 10th and 90th percentiles compared to the reference value (centered at their medians) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For rainfall we reported RRs at 50th and 90th percentiles compared to 0 mm with corresponding 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Statistically significant inverse S-curve shaped associations were observed between all three temperature variables (mean, minimum, maximum) and ARIs. A decrease of 1.1 °C from the median value of 27.8 °C to 26.7 °C (10th percentile) in the mean temperature was associated with a 6% increase (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.09) in ARIs. ARIs also increased at 23.9 °C (10th percentile) compared to 24.9 °C of minimum temperature (RR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.16). The effect of maximum temperature for the same comparison (30.5 °C vs 31.7 °C) was non-significant (RR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.05). An increase in ambient temperature to 28.9 °C (90th percentile) was associated with an 18% decrease (RR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83) in ARIs. Similarly, ARIs decreased with the same increase to 90th percentile in minimum (RR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.80 to 0.87) and maximum (RR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86 to 0.93) temperatures. Rainfall was inversely associated with ARIs and displayed similar shape in all three temperature models. Relative humidity, on the other hand, exhibited a U-shaped relationship with ARIs.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that lower temperatures increase the risk of ARIs. Anticipated extreme weather events that reduce ambient temperature can be used to inform increased healthcare resource allocation for ARIs.

Respiratory viral infections in hospitalised paediatric patients in the tropics

AIM

Respiratory viruses are a huge disease burden globally. An understanding of the seasonal trends and the ability to predict peak periods of respiratory virus disease incidence is useful for clinical care.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of paediatric hospitalizations of laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory tract infections in KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2016. Standard direct immunofluorescence was used to detect respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B viruses, parainfluenza 1, 2 and 3 viruses, metapneumovirus and adenovirus.

RESULTS

A total of 97 840 specimens were analysed with a positive detection rate of 23.8%. RSV made up the largest proportion (42% of the total positive results), predominating between May to September. Influenza A had two peaks, June to July and December to January. Type 3 was the most common parainfluenza virus and showed annually recurring peaks. In contrast, parainfluenza 1 and 2, metapneumovirus and adenovirus had a biennial pattern. The test of seasonality detected identifiable seasonality for RSV and parainfluenza 3 virus.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, respiratory viruses have different and overlapping seasonality in tropical Singapore. Respiratory virus testing for patients admitted for acute respiratory infection is useful to target antiviral therapies and appropriate infection control practices.

Etiology of febrile respiratory infections in the general adult population in Singapore, 2007-2013

Pathogens that cause upper respiratory infections are numerous and specific preventive and therapeutic strategies are scarce. In order to ascertain the etiological agents resulting in upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) in adults in Singapore, nasal swab samples were collected from 2057 patients presenting with fever at primary healthcare clinics in Singapore from December 2007 to February 2013. Samples were tested using the Luminex NxTAG Respiratory Pathogen Panel that includes 22 respiratory pathogen targets. Patient-reported symptoms and vital signs were recorded and full blood and differential counts taken. Pathogens were detected in the following order of frequency: influenza viruses, rhino-/enteroviruses, coronaviruses, parainfluenza viruses, pneumoviruses, adenovirus, bocavirus and C. pneumoniae. Fifteen virus species were detected as part of coinfections, in which rhinoviruses were the most commonly observed pathogen. Our results suggest that influenza viruses are the main etiological agents, but multiple other respiratory viruses contribute to the total burden of URTI in adults in Singapore.

Molecular detection and whole genome characterization of Canine Parainfluenza type 5 in Thailand

Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV-5) causes respiratory infection in several animal species and humans. Canine parainfluenza virus type 5 (CPIV-5) causes respiratory disease in domestic dogs worldwide. In this study, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of CPIV-5 in dogs with respiratory symptoms from small animal hospitals in Thailand from November 2015 to December 2018. Our results showed that 32 out of 571 nasal swab samples (5.6%) were positive for CPIV-5 by RT-PCR specific to the NP gene. To characterize the viruses, three representative CPIV-5 were subjected to whole genome sequencing, and an additional ten CPIV-5 were subjected to HN, F, SH and V/P gene sequencing. Pairwise sequence comparison and phylogenetic analysis showed that Thai CPIV-5 was closely related to the CPIV-5 isolated from China and Korea. In conclusion, this study constitutes a whole genome characterization of CPIV-5 from dogs in Thailand. The surveillance of CPIV-5 should be further investigated at a larger scale to determine the dynamics, distribution and potential zoonotic transmission of CPIV-5.

Correlation between Children Respiratory Virus Infections and Climate Factors

Objective Respiratory viruses are the most important cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in children. Meteorological factors can influence viral outbreaks. The objective of this study was to determine the association between climate variables and respiratory virus detection.

Methods Multicenter prospective 1-year surveillance was conducted among children hospitalized for LRTI in Tunisia. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested by direct immunofluorescence assay (DIFA) for the detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); adenovirus (AdV); influenza virus (IFV) A and B; and parainfluenza virus 1, 2, and 3 (PIV1/2/3). Samples were further analyzed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for the detection of human metapneumovirus (hMPV). Monthly meteorological data were determined by consulting the National Institute of Meteorology and the World Weather Online Meteorological Company websites. Pearson's correlation tests were used to determine the statistical association between the detection of respiratory viruses and climatic characteristics.

Results Among 572 patients, 243 (42.5%) were positive for at least one virus. The most frequently detected viruses by DIFA were RSV (30.0%), followed by IFVA (3.8%), IFVB (3.5%), PIV (0.9%), and AdV (0.9%). HMPV was detected in 13 RSV-negative samples (3.3%). Dual infections were detected in seven cases (1.2%). Monthly global respiratory viruses and RSV detections correlated significantly with temperature, rainfall, cloud cover, wind speed, wind temperature, and duration of sunshine. Monthly IFV detection significantly correlated with rainfall, wind speed, wind temperature, and duration of sunshine. HMPV detection significantly correlated with temperature and wind temperature.

Conclusion Respiratory viral outbreaks are clearly related to meteorological factors in Tunisia.

Estimation of COVID-19 Under-Reporting in the Brazilian States Through SARI

Due to its impact, COVID-19 has been stressing the academy to search for curing, mitigating, or controlling it. It is believed that under-reporting is a relevant factor in determining the actual mortality rate and, if not considered, can cause significant misinformation. Therefore, this work aims to estimate the under-reporting of cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Brazilian states using data from the InfoGripe. InfoGripe targets notifications of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI). The methodology is based on the combination of data analytics (event detection methods) and time series modeling (inertia and novelty concepts) over hospitalized SARI cases. The estimate of real cases of the disease, called novelty, is calculated by comparing the difference in SARI cases in 2020 (after COVID-19) with the total expected cases in recent years (2016-2019). The expected cases are derived from a seasonal exponential moving average. The results show that under-reporting rates vary significantly between states and that there are no general patterns for states in the same region in Brazil. The states of Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso have the highest rates of under-reporting of cases. The rate of under-reporting of deaths is high in the Rio Grande do Sul and the Minas Gerais. This work can be highlighted for the combination of data analytics and time series modeling. Our calculation of under-reporting rates based on SARI is conservative and better characterized by deaths than for cases.

Effectiveness of Palivizumab Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization Among Preterm Infants in a Setting With Year-Round Circulation

BACKGROUND

The year-round respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation in tropical regions leads to different transmission patterns and burden of disease among infants born very preterm.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate the effectiveness of palivizumab in preventing RSV hospitalization at 6 and 12 months after discharge, among infants born at <32 weeks' gestation in our tropical setting.

RESULTS

A total of 109 infants (26.3%) received palivizumab at discharge, of 415 who were eligible. All patients received ≥4 doses, with 105 infants (96.3%) completing 5 doses. Within 1 year after discharge, there were 35 RSV-associated admissions (3 [2.8%] in the palivizumab vs 32 [10.5%] in the nonpalivizumab group; P = .02). After adjustment for confounders, the effectiveness of palivizumab against RSV hospitalization was estimated to be 90% (95% confidence interval, 10%-99%) up to 6 months after discharge. The median time to RSV hospitalization was shorter in the nonpalivizumab than in the palivizumab group (median [range], 155 [15-358] vs 287 [145-359] days, respectively; P = .11). Five infants (14.3%), all from the nonpalivizumab group, required admission to the intensive care unit.

CONCLUSIONS

In our setting with year-round RSV circulation, palivizumab prophylaxis was effective in reducing RSV hospitalization among high-risk preterm infants of <32 weeks' gestation within the initial 6 months after discharge.

TIME-VARYING EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION IN HETEROGENEOUS NETWORKS AND APPLICATIONS TO MEASLES

In this paper, we analyze some epidemic models by considering a time-varying transmission rate in complex heterogeneous networks. The transmission rate is assumed to change in time, due to a switching signal, and since the spreading of the disease also depends on connections between individuals, the population is modeled as a heterogeneous network. We establish some stability results related to the behavior of the time-weighted average Basic Reproduction Number (BRN).

Later, a Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model which describes the measles disease is proposed and we show that its dynamics is determined by a threshold value, below which the disease dies out. Moreover, compared with models without the Exposed compartment, we can find weaker stability results. A control strategy with an imperfect vaccine is applied, to determine how it could effect the size of the peak. Due to the periodic behavior of the switching rule, we compare the results with the BRN of the model. Some simulations are given, using a scale-free network, to illustrate the threshold conditions found.

Prolonged exposure to high humidity and high temperature environment can aggravate influenza virus infection through intestinal flora and Nod/RIP2/NF-κB signaling pathway

Seasonal influenza is an acute viral infection caused by influenza virus, which is often prevalent in the summer and winter. The influenza virus can infect pigs and poultry. Some literature reports that the influenza virus has an outbreak in summer. The summer climate is characterized by a high humidity and high temperature environment, which is the same as many animal feeding and growing environments. We established a flu animal model under a high temperature and humidity environment during the day to observe the impact of high humidity and high temperature environment on the mice after contracting the influenza virus. Our results indicate that the intestinal flora of 16 s rDNA cultured in High humidity and high temperature environment changes, the intestinal mucosal permeability increases, the expression of pIgR, sIgA, and IgA in the intestinal mucosal immune system decreases, and the NLR immune recognition signaling pathway NOD1 is activated. The expression of related genes such as NOD2, NF-κB, and pIgR increases, which leads to the increase of related inflammatory factors in the vicinity of the intestines, aggravating local inflammation. High humidity and high temperature environment can cause the expression of inflammatory cytokines in the body to rise, causing Th17/Treg immune imbalance, inhibiting Treg maturation and differentiation, and increasing the expression of IL-2, IL-6, and other cytokines, while the expression of IFN-γ and IL-17A decreases. This condition worsens after infection with the influenza virus. Overall, our study found that High humidity and high temperature environment affect the intestinal flora and the body's immune status, thereby aggravating the status of influenza virus infection.

A review on disease burden and epidemiology of childhood parainfluenza virus infections in Asian countries

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are an important cause of acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) in children less than 5 years, second only to human respiratory syncytial viruses (HRSVs). Generally, patients infected with HPIVs are treated in outpatient clinics, yet also contribute to ARTI-associated hospitalization in children. Although HPIV infections are well studied in developed countries, these infections remain under-investigated and not considered in the routine laboratory diagnosis of childhood ARTI in many developing countries in Asia. We performed an extensive literature search on the prevalence, epidemiology, and burden of HPIV infections in children less than 5 years in Asia using PubMed and PubMed Central search engines. Based on the literature, the prevalence of HPIV infection in Asia ranges from 1% to 66%. According to many studies, HPIV-3 is the major virus circulating among children; however, several studies failed to detect HPIV-4 due to unavailability of diagnostic tools. In Asian countries, HPIV contributes a substantial disease burden in children. The data in this review should assist researchers and public health authorities to plan preventive measures, including accelerating research on vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Recent influenza activity in tropical Puerto Rico has become synchronized with mainland US

BACKGROUND

We used data from the Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System (SEDSS) to describe influenza trends in southern Puerto Rico during 2012-2018 and compare them to trends in the United States.

METHODS

Patients with fever onset ≤ 7 days presenting were enrolled. Nasal/oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza A and B viruses by PCR. Virologic data were obtained from the US World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Laboratories System and the National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS). We compared influenza A and B infections identified from SEDSS and WHO/NREVSS laboratories reported by US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) region using time series decomposition methods, and analysed coherence of climate and influenza trends by region.

RESULTS

Among 23,124 participants, 9% were positive for influenza A and 5% for influenza B. Influenza A and B viruses were identified year-round, with no clear seasonal patterns from 2012 to 2015 and peaks in December-January in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons. Influenza seasons in HHS regions were relatively synchronized in recent years with the seasons in Puerto Rico. We observed high coherence between absolute humidity and influenza A and B virus in HHS regions. In Puerto Rico, coherence was much lower in the early years but increased to similar levels to HHS regions by 2017-2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza seasons in Puerto Rico have recently become synchronized with seasons in US HHS regions. Current US recommendations are for everyone 6 months and older to receive influenza vaccination by the end of October seem appropriate for Puerto Rico.

Detection of respiratory viruses in adults with respiratory tract infection using a multiplex PCR assay at a tertiary center

Background

Respiratory viruses (RVs) are among the most common pathogens for both upper and lower respiratory tract infections (RTIs). However, the viral epidemiology of RV-associated RTIs in adults has long been under-recognized. Through a sensitive molecular assay, it would be possible to have a better understanding of the epidemiology of RV-associated RTIs.

Material and methods

Respiratory tract (RT) specimens from adults hospitalized due to RTIs were tested for RVs, using the multiplex PCR-based Luminex xTAG® Respiratory Viral Panel assay. A total of nineteen RVs, including influenza viruses and non-influenza respiratory viruses (NIRVs) were detected. Positive rates were compared using a chi-square test.

Results

A total of 2292 samples from adult patients hospitalized with RTIs were screened for RVs. The overall positive rate was 22%, with 17.8% samples positive for at least one NIRV. NIRVs had a higher positive rate in non-winter seasons. As many as 12.7% (46/363) of the samples collected through broncho-alveolar lavage and 20.5% (176/859) of the samples collected in ICUs were positive for RVs. Distribution of corona virus (CoV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and parainfluenza virus (PIV) demonstrated seasonal variation. Also, temperature was associated with the positive rates of specific viruses, including CoV, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), hMPV and PIV.

Conclusion

Respiratory viruses, notably NIRVs, were frequently detected in adults hospitalized with RTIs. Several RVs were detected with distinctive seasonal variations. A substantial number of RVs were identified in lower RT specimens or from patients admitted to ICU, highlighting their important role in causing severe respiratory infection.

Winter Is Coming: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective of the Environmental Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the Potential Seasonality of COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 was present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer, and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease spread. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria. Since the disease has been prevalent for only half a year in the northern, and one-quarter of a year in the southern hemisphere, datasets capturing a full seasonal cycle in one locality are not yet available. Analyses based on space-for-time substitutions, i.e., using data from climatically distinct locations as a surrogate for seasonal progression, have been inconclusive. The reported studies present a strong northern bias. Socio-economic conditions peculiar to the 'Global South' have been omitted as confounding variables, thereby weakening evidence of environmental signals. We explore why research to date has failed to show convincing evidence for environmental modulation of COVID-19, and discuss directions for future research. We conclude that the evidence thus far suggests a weak modulation effect, currently overwhelmed by the scale and rate of the spread of COVID-19. Seasonally modulated transmission, if it exists, will be more evident in 2021 and subsequent years.

Respiratory syncytial virus infection trend is associated with meteorological factors

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infects young children and causes influenza-like illness. RSV circulation and prevalence differ among countries and climates. To better understand whether climate factors influence the seasonality of RSV in Thailand, we examined RSV data from children ≤ 5 years-old who presented with respiratory symptoms from January 2012–December 2018. From a total of 8,209 nasopharyngeal samples, 13.2% (1,082/8,209) was RSV-positive, of which 37.5% (406/1,082) were RSV-A and 36.4% (394/1,082) were RSV-B. The annual unimodal RSV activity from July–November overlaps with the rainy season. Association between meteorological data including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed for central Thailand and the incidence of RSV over 7-years was analyzed using Spearman’s rank and partial correlation. Multivariate time-series analysis with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model showed that RSV activity correlated positively with rainfall (r = 0.41) and relative humidity (r = 0.25), but negatively with mean temperature (r = − 0.27). The best-fitting ARIMA (1,0,0)(2,1,0)₁₂ model suggests that peak RSV activity lags the hottest month of the year by 4 months. Our results enable possible prediction of RSV activity based on the climate and could help to anticipate the yearly upsurge of RSV in this region.

Community-acquired viral respiratory infections amongst hospitalized inpatients during a COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore: co-infection and clinical outcomes

AIMS

During the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, co-circulation of other common respiratory viruses can potentially result in co-infections; however, reported rates of co-infections for SARS-CoV-2 vary. We sought to evaluate the prevalence and etiology of all community acquired viral respiratory infections requiring hospitalization during an ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, with a focus on co-infection rates and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Over a 10-week period, all admissions to our institution, the largest tertiary hospital in Singapore, were screened for respiratory symptoms, and COVID-19 as well as a panel of common respiratory viral pathogens were systematically tested for. Information was collated on clinical outcomes, including requirement for mechanical ventilation and in hospital mortality.

RESULTS

One-fifth (19.3%, 736/3807) of hospitalized inpatients with respiratory symptoms had a PCR-proven viral respiratory infection; of which 58.5% (431/736) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 42.2% (311/736) tested positive for other common respiratory viruses. The rate of co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 was 1.4% (6/431); all patients with co-infection had mild disease and stayed in communal settings. The in-hospital mortality rate and proportion of COVID-19 patients requiring invasive ventilation was low, at around 1% of patients; these rates were lower than patients with other community-acquired respiratory viruses admitted over the same period (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Even amidst an ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, common respiratory viruses still accounted for a substantial proportion of hospitalizations. Coinfections with SARS-CoV-2 were rare, with no observed increase in morbidity or mortality.

Temporal and climate characteristics of respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis in neonates and children in Sousse, Tunisia, during a 13-year surveillance

This study established the correlation between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis and climate factors in the area of Sousse, Tunisia, during 13 years (2003-2015), from neonates and children <= 5 years old and hospitalized in Farhat Hached University-Hospital of Sousse. The meteorological data of Sousse including temperature, rainfall, and humidity were obtained. RSV detection was carried out with the direct immunofluorescence assay. The impact of climate factors on viral circulation was statistically analyzed. From 2003 to 2015, the total rate of RSV bronchiolitis accounted for 34.5% and peaked in 2007 and 2013. RSV infection was higher in male cases and pediatric environment (p<0.001) and was detected in 47.3% of hospitalizations in intensive care units. The epidemic of this pathogen started in October and peaked in January (41.6%). When the infectivity of RSV was at its maximum, the monthly average rainfall was high (31 mm) and the monthly average temperature and the monthly average humidity were at their minimum (11 °C and 66%, respectively). RSV activity was negatively correlated with temperature (r = - 0.78, p = 0.003) and humidity (r = - 0.62, p = 0.03). Regression analysis showed that the monthly average temperature fits into a linear model (R² = 61%, p < 0.01). No correlation between RSV activity and rainfall was observed (p = 0.48). The meteorological predictions of RSV outbreaks with specific Tunisian climate parameters will help in determining the optimal timing of appropriate preventive strategies. In the area of Sousse, preventive measures should be enhanced since October especially, when the temperature is around 11 °C and humidity is above 60%.

Mortality in children hospitalised with respiratory syncytial virus infection in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to investigate the trend and seasonality of infection due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) at KK Women's and Children's Hospital (KKH) in Singapore and to examine the risk factors for mortality among children with RSV infection requiring admission to the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted at KKH on children with RSV infections who were admitted to the PICU between January 2004 and December 2010. The medical records of children who died from RSV infections were reviewed. Linear regression was performed to determine the risk factors of RSV mortality.

RESULTS

RSV infection was documented in 5,785 children during the study period, occurring throughout the year, with a small increase in prevalence between the months of June and August annually. Among 85 (1.5%) of 5,785 children who were admitted to the PICU for RSV infection, 74 (1.3%) survived and there were 11 (0.2%) deaths. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that significant haemodynamically significant cardiac disease (odds ratio [OR] 12.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-16.7, p = 0.05), immunodeficiency (OR 71.4, 95% CI 8.2-500, p < 0.001) and metabolic disease (OR 71.4, 95% CI 4.3-1,000, p = 0.003) were independent risk factors for mortality in RSV infections. Prematurity increased the risk of admission to the PICU but was not significantly associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

Children with haemodynamically significant cardiac disease, immunodeficiency and metabolic disease were at higher risk of death after hospitalisation for RSV-related illnesses. These children should be considered for palivizumab prophylaxis.

Poultry Ownership Associated with Increased Risk of Child Diarrhea: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Uganda

Domestic animals have been associated with enteric infections in young children and can also be carriers of respiratory viruses. We conducted a cross-sectional assessment of health outcomes in children aged < 5 years associated with animal presence among 793 rural households in Uganda. We recorded the 2-week prevalence of diarrhea and respiratory infections in children, and the number of cows, poultry, sheep/goats, and pigs in the household. We used generalized linear models with robust standard errors to estimate the prevalence ratio (PR) for diarrhea and respiratory infections associated with households owning the above- versus below-median number of animals. We conducted unadjusted and adjusted analyses controlling for socioeconomic, water, sanitation, and hygiene indicators. Children in households with the above-median number (> 5) of poultry had 83% higher diarrhea prevalence than those with ≤ 5 poultry (adjusted PR = 1.83 [1.04, 3.23], P = 0.04). Children in households with the above-median number (> 2) of cows had 48% lower prevalence of respiratory infection than those with ≤ 2 cows (adjusted PR = 0.52 [0.35, 0.76], P < 0.005). There were no other significant associations between domestic animals and child health. Studies should assess if barring chickens from indoor living quarters and sanitary disposal of chicken and other animal feces can reduce childhood zoonotic infections.

Latitudes mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors: A nationwide modelling analysis in 45 Japanese prefectures from 2000 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Cold and dry conditions were well-documented as a major determinant of influenza seasonality in temperate countries but the association may not be consistent when the climate in temperate areas is closer to that in sub-tropical areas. We hypothesized latitudes may mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors in 45 Japanese prefectures.

METHODS

We used the weekly incidence of influenza-like illness of 45 prefectures from 2000 to 2018 as a proxy for influenza activity in Japan, a temperate country lying off the east coast of Asia. A combination of generalized additive model and distributed lag nonlinear model was adopted to investigate the associations between meteorological factors (average temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall, and actual vapour pressure, a proxy for absolute humidity) and the influenza incidence. Kendall's tau b (τ) and Spearman correlation coefficient (r_s) between latitude and the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of each meteorological factor were also assessed.

RESULTS

A higher vapour pressure was significantly associated with a lower influenza risk but the ARR strongly weakened along with a lower latitude (τ = -0.23, p-value = 0.02; r_s = -0.33, p-value = 0.03). Lower temperature and lower relatively humidity were significantly associated with higher influenza risks in over 65% and around 40% of the prefectures respectively but the strength and significance of the correlations between their ARRs and latitude were weaker than that from vapour pressure.

CONCLUSION

Even though the range of latitudes in Japan is small (26°N-43°N), the relationships between meteorological factors and influenza activity were mediated by the latitude. Our study echoed absolute humidity played a more important role in relating influenza risk, but we on the other hand showed its effect on influenza activity could be hampered in a low-latitude temperate region, which have a warmer climate. These findings thus offer a high-resolution characterization of the role of meteorological factors on influenza seasonality.

Infrared-Radiation-Enhanced Nanofiber Membrane for Sky Radiative Cooling of the Human Body

Extreme heat events are mainly responsible for weather-related human mortality due to climate change. However, there is a lack of outdoor thermal management for protecting people from extreme heat events. We present a novel infrared-radiation-enhanced nanofiber membrane (NFM) that has good infrared resonance absorption and selectively radiates thermal radiation of the human body through the atmosphere and into the cold outer space. The NFM comprises polyamide 6 (PA6) nanofibers and randomly distributed SiO₂ submicron spheres and has sufficient air permeability and thermal-moisture comfortability because of its interconnect nanopores and micropores. We measure the sky radiative cooling performance under a clear sky, and PA6/SiO₂ NFM produces temperatures that are about 0.4-1.7 °C lower than those of commercial textiles when covering dry and wet hands and temperatures 1.0-2.5 °C lower than the ambient temperature when thermal conduction and convection are isolated in a closed device. Our processed PA6/SiO₂ NFM combines sky radiative cooling with thermal management of the human body very well, which will promote the development of radiative cooling textiles.

Molecular epidemiology of respiratory viruses among Malaysian Young children with a confirmed respiratory infection during 2014-2015

BACKGROUND

In many developing countries, acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) are the main cause of morbidity and mortality among young children. This study aims to evaluate the molecular epidemiology of respiratory viruses among Malaysian children with confirmed respiratory infections between July 2014 and July 2015.

METHODS

A total of 394 nasopharyngeal swabs were collected prospectively from children age 0-5 years old with ARTIs from hospitals in Kuala Lumpur. Respiratory viral panel (RVP) assay was used to identify the viral aetiology of respiratory infections.

RESULTS

From a total of 394 samples, the positive detection rate was 79.9% (n=315). A total of 15 types of RNA viruses and a single type of DNA virus were detected. Enterovirus/rhinovirus (n=112, 28.4%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (n=85, 21.6%), adenovirus (n=64, 16.2%), human bocavirus (n=34, 8.6%), and human metapneumovirus (n=29, 7.4%) were the five predominant viruses. Enterovirus/rhinovirus and RSV constituted most of the viral respiratory infections among young children, especially among children less than 1 year old. No coronavirus was detected among children between 3 and 5 years old. Co-infection caused by 2 or 3 respiratory viruses were detected in 52 patients (13.2%). Enterovirus/rhinovirus, adenovirus, and human bocavirus demonstrated pronounced seasonality. The infection rate peaked during mid-year, while the lowest activity occurred during early of the year.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of molecular assay as a routine diagnostic in the hospitals can improve the diagnosis and management of respiratory tract infections among children.

An Outbreak of Human Parainfluenza Virus 3 (Phylogenetic Subcluster C5) Infection among Adults at a Residential Care Facility for the Disabled in Croatia, 2018

INTRODUCTION

Although highly pertinent for children, outbreaks of human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) may cause up to 15% of all respiratory illnesses in adults and predispose them to serious adverse outcomes, with HPIV serotype 3 (HPIV3) being the most common. This study represents the first report of an HPIV3 outbreak among adults at a long-term health-care facility in Croatia.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted to investigate an outbreak of acute respiratory infection (ARI) at a single residential care facility for the disabled in Croatia. Demographic, epidemiological, and clinical data were collected for all residents, while hospitalized patients were appraised in detail by laboratory/radiological methods. Multiplex PCR for respiratory viruses and sequencing was performed. Partial HPIV3 HN 581 nt sequences were aligned with HPIV3 sequences from the GenBank database to conduct a phylogenetic analysis, where different bioinformatic approaches were employed.

RESULTS

In late June 2018, 5 of the 10 units at the facility were affected by the outbreak. Among the 106 residents, 23 (21.7%) developed ARI, and 6 (26.1%) of them were hospitalized. HPIV3 was identified in 18 (73%) of the residents and 5 (83%) of the hospitalized individuals. Isolated HPIV3 strains were classified within the phylogenetic subcluster C5 but grouped on 2 separate branches of the phylogenetic tree. During the entire outbreak period, none of the institution's employees reported symptoms of ARI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has shown that this health care-associated outbreak of HPIV3 infection could have been linked to multiple importation events. Preventive measures in curbing such incidents should be enforced vigorously.

Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones: a multi-region modelling analysis across the globe

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate the effects of meteorological variations on the activity of influenza A and B in 11 sites across different climate regions.

METHODS

Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases from 2011-2015 were collected from study sites where the corresponding daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation amount were used for boosted regression trees analysis on the marginal associations and the interaction effects.

RESULTS

Cold temperature was a major determinant that favored both influenza A and B in temperate and subtropical sites. Temperature-to-influenza A, but not influenza B, exhibited a U-shape association in subtropical and tropical sites. High relative humidity was also associated with influenza activities but was less consistent with influenza B activity. Compared with relative humidity, absolute humidity had a stronger association - it was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate zones, but was positively associated with both influenza A and B in subtropical and tropical zones.

CONCLUSION

The association between meteorological factors and with influenza activity is virus type specific and climate dependent. The heavy influence of temperature on influenza activity across climate zones implies that global warming is likely to have an impact on the influenza burden.

Molecular detection of respiratory pathogens among children aged younger than 5 years hospitalized with febrile acute respiratory infections: A prospective hospital-based observational study in Niamey, Niger

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In Niger, acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the second most common cause of death in children aged younger than 5 years. However, the etiology of ARI is poorly understood in the country. This study aims to describe viral and bacterial infections among children aged younger than 5 years hospitalized with febrile ARI at two hospitals in Niamey, Niger's capital city, and the reported clinical procedures.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study among children aged younger than 5 years hospitalized with febrile ARI at two national hospitals in Niamey between January and December 2015. Clinical presentation and procedures during admission were documented using a standardized case investigation form. Nasopharyngeal specimens collected from each patient were tested for a panel of respiratory viruses and bacteria using the Fast Track Diagnostic 21 Plus kit.

RESULTS

We enrolled and tested 638 children aged younger than 5 years, of whom 411 (64.4%) were aged younger than 1 year, and 15 (2.4%) died during the study period. Overall, 496/638 (77.7%) specimens tested positive for at least one respiratory virus or bacterium; of these, 195 (39.3%) tested positive for respiratory viruses, 126 (25.4%) tested positive for respiratory bacteria, and 175 (35.3%) tested positive for both respiratory viruses and bacteria. The predominant viruses detected were respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (149/638; 23.3%), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) types 1 to 4 (78/638; 12.2%), human rhinovirus (HRV) (62/638; 9.4%), human adenovirus (HAV) (60/638; 9.4%), and influenza virus (INF) (52/638; 8.1%). Streptococcus pneumoniae (249/638; 39.0%) was the most frequently detected bacterium, followed by Staphylococcus aureus (112/638; 12.2%) and Haemophilus influenzae type B (16/638; 2.5%). Chest X-rays were performed at the discretion of the attending physician on 301 (47.2%) case patients. Of these patients, 231 (76.7%) had abnormal radiological findings. A total of 135/638 (21.2%) and 572/638 (89.7%) children received antibiotic treatment prior to admission and during admission, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A high proportion of respiratory viruses was detected among children aged younger than 5 years with febrile ARI, raising concerns about excessive use of antibiotics in Niger.

Dynamics of the occurrence of influenza in relation to seasonal variation in Chennai, Tamil Nadu: A 7 -year cumulative study

Background

Influenza viruses have emerged as virulent pathogens causing considerable burden across the world. A thorough understanding of the pattern in occurrence of influenza globally is the need of hour. The present study deals with analysis of the dynamics of Influenza virus, especially the influence of seasonal change on viral circulation and causation of epidemics/pandemics in the context of subtropical region.

Methods

During the 7 year (2009-2015) study, 36670 specimens were subjected to influenza analysis. Nasopharyngeal swabs collected from suspected patients from Chennai, Tamil Nadu, were tested and typed by real-time polymerase chain reaction assay.

Results

During 2009 pandemic, among influenza A positives 95.16% were Apdm09, indicating that there was a predominant circulation of Apdm09. During postpandemic period, there were waves in the occurrence of Apdm09 which indicates fall in immunity with buildup in the susceptible population.

Conclusion

In Chennai, Tamil Nadu, influenza positivity started with the onset of monsoon and peaks during the postmonsoon months throughout the study period. The assessment of meteorological factors compounding influenza activity can help in raising alerts to the public health officials of impending disaster which suggests that Influenza vaccination can be initiated before monsoon months in South India.

Prevalence, risk factors and clinical characteristics of respiratory syncytial virus-associated lower respiratory tract infections in Kelantan, Malaysia

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common pathogen affecting the respiratory tract in infants. To date, there is limited data on RSV occurrence in Malaysia especially in the northeast of Peninsular Malaysia which is significantly affected by the rainy (monsoon) season. This study aimed to determine the prevalence, risk factors (the presence of a male sibling and older school-age siblings, parental education level, monthly income, chronic lung disease, immunocompromised, being a passive smoker, multipara, breastfeeding, prematurity, congenital heart disease, nursery attendance, and rainy season) as well as clinical manifestations of RSV in hospitalized infants and children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). Patients' nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for RSV antigen, questionnaires, and seasonal variations were used to assess RSV infection. Approximately 22.6% of children were infected with RSV; mean age 7.68 ± 5.45 months. The peak incidence of RSV as a causative agent for LRTI in infants was less than or equal to 1-year old (83%) with approximately 50.5% of the affected children in the younger age group (6 months amd below). RSV infection was significantly but independently associated with the rainy season (odds ratio, 3.307; 95% confidence interval, 1.443-3.688; P < 0.001). The infection was also associated ( P < 0.05) with a higher number of severe clinical courses, poor feeding, vomiting, increased need for medical care and a shorter mean duration of symptoms before hospital admission. Our study suggested administration of the passive prophylaxis for RSV to high-risk infants during the rainy season in the months of October to January.

Incidence and seasonality of respiratory viruses causing acute respiratory infections in the Northern United Arab Emirates

Background

The data on the seasonality of respiratory viruses helps to ensure the optimal vaccination period and to monitor the possible outbreaks of variant type.

Objectives

This study was designed to describe the molecular epidemiology and seasonality of acute respiratory infection (ARI)‐related respiratory viruses in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Methods

Both upper and lower respiratory specimens were collected for the analysis from all the patients who visited the Sheikh Khalifa Specialty Hospital (SKSH) with ARI for over 2 years. The multiplex real‐time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT‐PCR) test was used to detect respiratory viruses, which include human adenovirus, influenza virus (FLU) A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, human rhinovirus (HRV), human metapneumovirus, human enterovirus, human coronavirus, and human bocavirus.

Results

A total of 1,362 respiratory samples were collected from 733 (53.8%) male and 629 (46.2%) female patients with ARI who visited the SKSH between November 2015 and February 2018. The rRT‐PCR test revealed an overall positivity rate of 37.2% (507/1362). The positive rate increased during winter; it was highest in December and lowest in September. FLU was the most frequently detected virus (273/1362 [20.0%]), followed by human rhinovirus (146/1362 [10.7%]). The FLU positivity rate showed two peaks, which occurred in August and December. The peak‐to‐low ratio for FLU was 2.26 (95% confidence interval: 1.52‐3.35).

Conclusions

The pattern of FLU in the UAE parallels to that of temperate countries. The trend of the small peak of FLU in the summer suggests a possibility of semi‐seasonal pattern in the UAE.