Impact of climate change on the distribution of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in northern Japan: retrospective analyses

The impact of climate change on the distribution of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) was analyzed in northern Japan, where chronological distribution records are incomplete. We analyzed local climate data using linear regression of the thermal suitability index (TSI) for the mosquito and mean annual temperature as functions of time. In northern Japan, thermal conditions since the early 20th century have become increasingly suitable for Ae. albopictus, more as a result of decreasing coldness in the overwintering season than increasing warmth in the reproductive season. Based on recent discovery records of Ae. albopictus in the northern border range, we determined thermal criteria for estimating when its persistent establishment became thermally possible. Retrospective analyses indicated that those criteria were reached in most coastal lowlands of northern Honshu before the accelerated temperature increase after the mid-1980s and the first records of this species after 1990; at some sites, temperature criteria were reached during or before the early 20th century. Expansion of the thermally suitable range after 1990 was supported only for inland areas and the northernmost Pacific coast. The estimated expansion rate was approximately 26 km per decade. Our analyses also demonstrated the importance of local climate heterogeneity (apart from north-south or altitudinal temperature gradients) in determining the expansion pattern.

Climate rather than geography separates two European honeybee subspecies

Both climatic and geographical factors play an important role for the biogeographical distribution of species. The Carpathian mountain ridge has been suggested as a natural geographical divide between the two honeybee subspecies Apis mellifera carnica and A. m. macedonica. We sampled one worker from one colony each at 138 traditional apiaries located across the Carpathians spanning from the Hungarian plains to the Danube delta. All samples were sequenced at the mitochondrial tRNA(Leu)-cox2 intergenic region and genotyped at twelve microsatellite loci. The Carpathians had only limited impact on the biogeography because both subspecies were abundant on either side of the mountain ridge. In contrast, subspecies differentiation strongly correlated with the various temperature zones in Romania. A. m. carnica is more abundant in regions with the mean average temperature below 9 °C, whereas A. m. macedonica honeybees are more frequent in regions with mean temperatures above 9 °C. This range selection may have impact on the future biogeography in the light of anticipated global climatic changes.

The ecophysiology of seed persistence: a mechanistic view of the journey to germination or demise

Seed persistence is the survival of seeds in the environment once they have reached maturity. Seed persistence allows a species, population or genotype to survive long after the death of parent plants, thus distributing genetic diversity through time. The ability to predict seed persistence accurately is critical to inform long-term weed management and flora rehabilitation programs, as well as to allow a greater understanding of plant community dynamics. Indeed, each of the 420000 seed-bearing plant species has a unique set of seed characteristics that determine its propensity to develop a persistent soil seed bank. The duration of seed persistence varies among species and populations, and depends on the physical and physiological characteristics of seeds and how they are affected by the biotic and abiotic environment. An integrated understanding of the ecophysiological mechanisms of seed persistence is essential if we are to improve our ability to predict how long seeds can survive in soils, both now and under future climatic conditions. In this review we present an holistic overview of the seed, species, climate, soil, and other site factors that contribute mechanistically to seed persistence, incorporating physiological, biochemical and ecological perspectives. We focus on current knowledge of the seed and species traits that influence seed longevity under ex situ controlled storage conditions, and explore how this inherent longevity is moderated by changeable biotic and abiotic conditions in situ, both before and after seeds are dispersed. We argue that the persistence of a given seed population in any environment depends on its resistance to exiting the seed bank via germination or death, and on its exposure to environmental conditions that are conducive to those fates. By synthesising knowledge of how the environment affects seeds to determine when and how they leave the soil seed bank into a resistance-exposure model, we provide a new framework for developing experimental and modelling approaches to predict how long seeds will persist in a range of environments.

Global priorities for marine biodiversity conservation

In recent decades, many marine populations have experienced major declines in abundance, but we still know little about where management interventions may help protect the highest levels of marine biodiversity. We used modeled spatial distribution data for nearly 12,500 species to quantify global patterns of species richness and two measures of endemism. By combining these data with spatial information on cumulative human impacts, we identified priority areas where marine biodiversity is most and least impacted by human activities, both within Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ). Our analyses highlighted places that are both accepted priorities for marine conservation like the Coral Triangle, as well as less well-known locations in the southwest Indian Ocean, western Pacific Ocean, Arctic and Antarctic Oceans, and within semi-enclosed seas like the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. Within highly impacted priority areas, climate and fishing were the biggest stressors. Although new priorities may arise as we continue to improve marine species range datasets, results from this work are an essential first step in guiding limited resources to regions where investment could best sustain marine biodiversity.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater ('parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water ('smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Millennial-scale temperature change velocity in the continental northern Neotropics

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years.

Global warming enhances sulphide stress in a key seagrass species (NW Mediterranean)

The build-up of sulphide concentrations in sediments, resulting from high inputs of organic matter and the mineralization through sulphate reduction, can be lethal to the benthos. Sulphate reduction is temperature dependent, thus global warming may contribute to even higher sulphide concentrations and benthos mortality. The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is very sensitive to sulphide stress. Hence, if concentrations build up with global warming, this key Mediterranean species could be seriously endangered. An 8-year monitoring of daily seawater temperature, the sulphur isotopic signatures of water (δ(34)S(water)), sediment (δ(34)SCRS ) and P. oceanica leaf tissue (δ(34)S(leaves)), along with total sulphur in leaves (TS(leaves)) and annual net population growth along the coast of the Balearic archipelago (Western Mediterranean) allowed us to determine if warming triggers P. oceanica sulphide stress and constrains seagrass survival. From the isotopic S signatures, we estimated sulphide intrusion into the leaves (F(sulphide)) and sulphur incorporation into the leaves from sedimentary sulphides (SS(leaves)). We observed lower δ(34)S(leaves), higher F(sulphide) and SS(leaves) coinciding with a 6-year period when two heat waves were recorded. Warming triggered sulphide stress as evidenced by the negative temperature dependence of δ(34)S(leaves) and the positive one of F(sulphide), TS(leaves) and SS(leaves). Lower P. oceanica net population growth rates were directly related to higher contents of TS(leaves). At equivalent annual maximum sea surface water temperature (SST(max)), deep meadows were less affected by sulphide intrusion than shallow ones. Thus, water depth acts as a protecting mechanism against sulphide intrusion. However, water depth would be insufficient to buffer seagrass sulphide stress triggered by Mediterranean seawater summer temperatures projected for the end of the 21st century even under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, A1B. Mediterranean warming, therefore, is expected to enhance P. oceanica sulphide stress, and thus compromise the survival of this key habitat along its entire depth distribution range.

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change

Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.

Invasion, establishment, and range expansion of two parasitic nematodes in the Canadian Arctic

Climate warming is occurring at an unprecedented rate in the Arctic and is having profound effects on host-parasite interactions, including range expansion. Recently, two species of protostrongylid nematodes have emerged for the first time in muskoxen and caribou on Victoria Island in the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis, the muskox lungworm, was detected for the first time in 2008 in muskoxen at a community hunt on the southwest corner of the island and by 2012, it was found several hundred kilometers east in commercially harvested muskoxen near the town of Ikaluktutiak. In 2010, Varestrongylus sp., a recently discovered lungworm of caribou and muskoxen was found in muskoxen near Ikaluktutiak and has been found annually in this area since then. Whereas invasion of the island by U. pallikuukensis appears to have been mediated by stochastic movement of muskoxen from the mainland to the southwest corner of the island, Varestrongylus has likely been introduced at several times and locations by the seasonal migration of caribou between the island and the mainland. A newly permissive climate, now suitable for completion of the parasite life cycles in a single summer, likely facilitated the initial establishment and now drives range expansion for both parasites.

Tropical marginal seas: priority regions for managing marine biodiversity and ecosystem function

Tropical marginal seas (TMSs) are natural subregions of tropical oceans containing biodiverse ecosystems with conspicuous, valued, and vulnerable biodiversity assets. They are focal points for global marine conservation because they occur in regions where human populations are rapidly expanding. Our review of 11 TMSs focuses on three key ecosystems-coral reefs and emergent atolls, deep benthic systems, and pelagic biomes-and synthesizes, illustrates, and contrasts knowledge of biodiversity, ecosystem function, interaction between adjacent habitats, and anthropogenic pressures. TMSs vary in the extent that they have been subject to human influence-from the nearly pristine Coral Sea to the heavily exploited South China and Caribbean Seas-but we predict that they will all be similarly complex to manage because most span multiple national jurisdictions. We conclude that developing a structured process to identify ecologically and biologically significant areas that uses a set of globally agreed criteria is a tractable first step toward effective multinational and transboundary ecosystem management of TMSs.

Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.

Large-scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011

We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950-2011 to study the long-term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P < 0.01, 1982-2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, P < 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, P > 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long-term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO(2) annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO(2) uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO(2) to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

Caught in the middle: combined impacts of shark removal and coral loss on the fish communities of coral reefs

Due to human activities, marine and terrestrial ecosystems face a future where disturbances are predicted to occur at a frequency and severity unprecedented in the recent past. Of particular concern is the ability of systems to recover where multiple stressors act simultaneously. We examine this issue in the context of a coral reef ecosystem where increases in stressors, such as fisheries, benthic degradation, cyclones and coral bleaching, are occurring at global scales. By utilizing long-term (decadal) monitoring programs, we examined the combined effects of chronic (removal of sharks) and pulse (cyclones, bleaching) disturbances on the trophic structure of coral reef fishes at two isolated atoll systems off the coast of northwest Australia. We provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that the loss of sharks can have an impact that propagates down the food chain, potentially contributing to mesopredator release and altering the numbers of primary consumers. Simultaneously, we show how the effects of bottom-up processes of bleaching and cyclones appear to propagate up the food chain through herbivores, planktivores and corallivores, but do not affect carnivores. Because their presence may promote the abundance of herbivores, the removal of sharks by fishing has implications for both natural and anthropogenic disturbances involving the loss of corals, as herbivores are critical to the progress and outcome of coral recovery.

Climate driven changes in subtidal kelp forest communities in NW Spain

Reconstructions suggest a massive decline of nearly 1400 ha of kelp forest in North Western Spain in 2007. In line with global rising temperatures, we hypothesized that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) surpassed a lethal threshold for kelp. We examined whether changes in SST correlated to the proposed decline in kelp forest. All investigated SST characteristics suggested to affect kelp abundance increased significantly during the past thirty years, reaching extreme values during the last decade. In addition over the past two decades, the landscape formerly dominated by both cold and warm temperate canopy forming and understory species changed to one dominated by warm temperate understory species, resulting in a loss of vertical community structure. Fisheries landing data of kelp associated species was used to support the suggested change in kelp abundance. Subsequent recovery of the kelp appears to be occurring in deeper waters.

Climate change and adaptational impacts in coastal systems: the case of sea defences

We briefly review how coastal ecosystems are responding to and being impacted by climate change, one of the greatest challenges facing society today. In adapting to rising and stormier seas associated with climate change, coastal defence structures are proliferating and becoming dominant coastal features, particularly in urbanised areas. Whilst the primary function of these structures is to protect coastal property and infrastructure, they inevitably have a significant secondary impact on the local environment and ecosystems. In this review we outline some of the negative and positive effects of these structures on physical processes, impacts on marine species, and the novel engineering approaches that have been employed to improve the ecological value of these structures in recent years. Finally we outline guidelines for an environmentally sensitive approach to design of such structures in the marine environment.

Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21^st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Does thermal history influence the tolerance of temperate gorgonians to future warming?

To date, several studies have provided evidence that thermal stress affects the growth, survival and physiology of tropical and temperate macroinvertebrate species. However, few studies have focused on subtidal temperate species and the potential differential thermal tolerances of populations dwelling under contrasting temperature conditions. To assess the role that environmental history has on the response of the temperate gorgonian Eunicella singularis to thermal stress, we compared populations dwelling in the coldest and warmest areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results show that E. singularis populations from both areas exhibited a high resistance to thermal stress; however, populations from warmer areas had an increased tolerance to thermal stress. Specifically, the upper thermal limits found for cold and warm populations were 28 and 29 °C, respectively. The higher resistance of E. singularis colonies to thermal stress found in this study compared to the field temperature conditions during recent mass mortality events highlights that performing further thermotolerance experiments under contrasting levels of feeding is necessary to fully assess the tolerance thresholds displayed by both study populations. To our knowledge, this study provides the first evidence for the role of thermal history in shaping the thermotolerance responses of Mediterranean marine invertebrates dwelling under contrasting temperature environments.

High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change.

Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management

The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management.

Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated.

The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080.

Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”.

Decadal Changes in the World's Coastal Latitudinal Temperature Gradients

Most of the world's living marine resources inhabit coastal environments, where average thermal conditions change predictably with latitude. These coastal latitudinal temperature gradients (CLTG) coincide with important ecological clines,e.g., in marine species diversity or adaptive genetic variations, but how tightly thermal and ecological gradients are linked remains unclear. A first step is to consistently characterize the world's CLTGs. We extracted coastal cells from a global 1°×1° dataset of weekly sea surface temperatures (SST, 1982–2012) to quantify spatial and temporal variability of the world's 11 major CLTGs. Gradient strength, i.e., the slope of the linear mean-SST/latitude relationship, varied 3-fold between the steepest (North-American Atlantic and Asian Pacific gradients: −0.91°C and −0.68°C lat⁻¹, respectively) and weakest CLTGs (African Indian Ocean and the South- and North-American Pacific gradients: −0.28, −0.29, −0.32°C lat⁻¹, respectively). Analyzing CLTG strength by year revealed that seven gradients have weakened by 3–10% over the past three decades due to increased warming at high compared to low latitudes. Almost the entire South-American Pacific gradient (6–47°S), however, has considerably cooled over the study period (−0.3 to −1.7°C, 31 years), and the substantial weakening of the North-American Atlantic gradient (−10%) was due to warming at high latitudes (42–60°N, +0.8 to +1.6°C,31 years) and significant mid-latitude cooling (Florida to Cape Hatteras 26–35°N, −0.5 to −2.2°C, 31 years). Average SST trends rarely resulted from uniform shifts throughout the year; instead individual seasonal warming or cooling patterns elicited the observed changes in annual means. This is consistent with our finding of increased seasonality (i.e., summer-winter SST amplitude) in three quarters of all coastal cells (331 of 433). Our study highlights the regionally variable footprint of global climate change, while emphasizing ecological implications of changing CLTGs, which are likely driving observed spatial and temporal clines in coastal marine life.

Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy

Environmental temperature has systematic effects on rates of species interactions, primarily through its influence on organismal physiology. We present a mechanistic model for the thermal response of consumer-resource interactions. We focus on how temperature affects species interactions via key traits - body velocity, detection distance, search rate and handling time - that underlie per capita consumption rate. The model is general because it applies to all foraging strategies: active-capture (both consumer and resource body velocity are important), sit-and-wait (resource velocity dominates) and grazing (consumer velocity dominates). The model predicts that temperature influences consumer-resource interactions primarily through its effects on body velocity (either of the consumer, resource or both), which determines how often consumers and resources encounter each other, and that asymmetries in the thermal responses of interacting species can introduce qualitative, not just quantitative, changes in consumer-resource dynamics. We illustrate this by showing how asymmetries in thermal responses determine equilibrium population densities in interacting consumer-resource pairs. We test for the existence of asymmetries in consumer-resource thermal responses by analysing an extensive database on thermal response curves of ecological traits for 309 species spanning 15 orders of magnitude in body size from terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. We find that asymmetries in consumer-resource thermal responses are likely to be a common occurrence. Overall, our study reveals the importance of asymmetric thermal responses in consumer-resource dynamics. In particular, we identify three general types of asymmetries: (i) different levels of performance of the response, (ii) different rates of response (e.g. activation energies) and (iii) different peak or optimal temperatures. Such asymmetries should occur more frequently as the climate changes and species' geographical distributions and phenologies are altered, such that previously noninteracting species come into contact. 6. By using characteristics of trophic interactions that are often well known, such as body size, foraging strategy, thermy and environmental temperature, our framework should allow more accurate predictions about the thermal dependence of consumer-resource interactions. Ultimately, integration of our theory into models of food web and ecosystem dynamics should be useful in understanding how natural systems will respond to current and future temperature change.

Spatiotemporal SNP analysis reveals pronounced biocomplexity at the northern range margin of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

Accurate prediction of species distribution shifts in the face of climate change requires a sound understanding of population diversity and local adaptations. Previous modeling has suggested that global warming will lead to increased abundance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the ocean around Greenland, but the dynamics of earlier abundance fluctuations are not well understood. We applied a retrospective spatiotemporal population genomics approach to examine the temporal stability of cod population structure in this region and to search for signatures of divergent selection over a 78-year period spanning major demographic changes. Analyzing >900 gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in 847 individuals, we identified four genetically distinct groups that exhibited varying spatial distributions with considerable overlap and mixture. The genetic composition had remained stable over decades at some spawning grounds, whereas complete population replacement was evident at others. Observations of elevated differentiation in certain genomic regions are consistent with adaptive divergence between the groups, indicating that they may respond differently to environmental variation. Significantly increased temporal changes at a subset of loci also suggest that adaptation may be ongoing. These findings illustrate the power of spatiotemporal population genomics for revealing biocomplexity in both space and time and for informing future fisheries management and conservation efforts.

Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook

The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish populations. At the same time, large-scale declines have been observed in many piscivorous seabirds, which depend on abundant small pelagic fish. Here, we combine predictions from a niche model of C. finmarchicus with long-term data on seabird breeding success to link trophic levels. The niche model shows that environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus has declined in southern areas with large breeding seabird populations (e.g. the North Sea), and predicts that this decline is likely to spread northwards during the 21st century to affect populations in Iceland and the Faroes. In a North Sea colony, breeding success of three common piscivorous seabird species [black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica)] was strongly positively correlated with local environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus, whereas this was not the case at a more northerly colony in west Norway. Large seabird populations seem only to occur where C. finmarchicus is abundant, and northward distributional shifts of common boreal seabirds are therefore expected over the coming decades. Whether or not population size can be maintained depends on the dispersal ability and inclination of these colonial breeders, and on the carrying capacity of more northerly areas in a warmer climate.

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat-forming species

Species distributions have shifted in response to global warming in all major ecosystems on the Earth. Despite cogent evidence for these changes, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and currently imply gradual shifts. Yet there is an increasing appreciation of the role of discrete events in driving ecological change. We show how a marine heat wave (HW) eliminated a prominent habitat-forming seaweed, Scytothalia dorycarpa, at its warm distribution limit, causing a range contraction of approximately 100 km (approx. 5% of its global distribution). Seawater temperatures during the HW exceeded the seaweed's physiological threshold and caused extirpation of marginal populations, which are unlikely to recover owing to life-history traits and oceanographic processes. Scytothalia dorycarpa is an important canopy-forming seaweed in temperate Australia, and loss of the species at its range edge has caused structural changes at the community level and is likely to have ecosystem-level implications. We show that extreme warming events, which are increasing in magnitude and frequency, can force step-wise changes in species distributions in marine ecosystems. As such, return times of these events have major implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure, which have typically been based on gradual warming trends.

Coverage, diversity, and functionality of a high-latitude coral community (Tatsukushi, Shikoku Island, Japan)

Background

Seawater temperature is the main factor restricting shallow-water zooxanthellate coral reefs to low latitudes. As temperatures increase, coral species and perhaps reefs may move into higher-latitude waters, increasing the chances of coral reef ecosystems surviving despite global warming. However, there is a growing need to understand the structure of these high-latitude coral communities in order to analyze their future dynamics and to detect any potential changes.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The high-latitude (32.75°N) community surveyed was located at Tatsukushi, Shikoku Island, Japan. Coral cover was 60±2% and was composed of 73 scleractinian species partitioned into 7 functional groups. Although only 6% of species belonged to the ‘plate-like’ functional group, it was the major contributor to species coverage. This was explained by the dominance of plate-like species such as Acropora hyacinthus and A. solitaryensis. Comparison with historical data suggests a relatively recent colonization/development of A. hyacinthus in this region and a potential increase in coral diversity over the last century. Low coverage of macroalgae (2% of the benthic cover) contrasted with the low abundance of herbivorous fishes, but may be reasonably explained by the high density of sea urchins (12.9±3.3 individuals m⁻²).

Conclusions/Significance

The structure and composition of this benthic community are relatively remarkable for a site where winter temperature can durably fall below the accepted limit for coral reef development. Despite limited functionalities and functional redundancy, the current benthic structure might provide a base upon which a reef could eventually develop, as characterized by opportunistic and pioneer frame-building species. In addition to increasing seawater temperatures, on-going management actions and sea urchin density might also explain the observed state of this community. A focus on such ‘marginal’ communities should be a priority, as they can provide important insights into how tropical corals might cope with environmental changes.

Tradition and transition: parasitic zoonoses of people and animals in Alaska, northern Canada, and Greenland

Zoonotic parasites are important causes of endemic and emerging human disease in northern North America and Greenland (the North), where prevalence of some parasites is higher than in the general North American population. The North today is in transition, facing increased resource extraction, globalisation of trade and travel, and rapid and accelerating environmental change. This comprehensive review addresses the diversity, distribution, ecology, epidemiology, and significance of nine zoonotic parasites in animal and human populations in the North. Based on a qualitative risk assessment with criteria heavily weighted for human health, these zoonotic parasites are ranked, in the order of decreasing importance, as follows: Echinococcus multilocularis, Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella and Giardia, Echinococcus granulosus/canadensis and Cryptosporidium, Toxocara, anisakid nematodes, and diphyllobothriid cestodes. Recent and future trends in the importance of these parasites for human health in the North are explored. For example, the incidence of human exposure to endemic helminth zoonoses (e.g. Diphyllobothrium, Trichinella, and Echinococcus) appears to be declining, while water-borne protozoans such as Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Toxoplasma may be emerging causes of human disease in a warming North. Parasites that undergo temperature-dependent development in the environment (such as Toxoplasma, ascarid and anisakid nematodes, and diphyllobothriid cestodes) will likely undergo accelerated development in endemic areas and temperate-adapted strains/species will move north, resulting in faunal shifts. Food-borne pathogens (e.g. Trichinella, Toxoplasma, anisakid nematodes, and diphyllobothriid cestodes) may be increasingly important as animal products are exported from the North and tourists, workers, and domestic animals enter the North. Finally, key needs are identified to better assess and mitigate risks associated with zoonotic parasites, including enhanced surveillance in animals and people, detection methods, and delivery and evaluation of veterinary and public health services.

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916-2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate-driven species range shifts during the 20th century.

Oceanographic and biological effects of shoaling of the oxygen minimum zone

Long-term declines in oxygen concentrations are evident throughout much of the ocean interior and are particularly acute in midwater oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). These regions are defined by extremely low oxygen concentrations (<20-45 μmol kg(-1)), cover wide expanses of the ocean, and are associated with productive oceanic and coastal regions. OMZs have expanded over the past 50 years, and this expansion is predicted to continue as the climate warms worldwide. Shoaling of the upper boundaries of the OMZs accompanies OMZ expansion, and decreased oxygen at shallower depths can affect all marine organisms through multiple direct and indirect mechanisms. Effects include altered microbial processes that produce and consume key nutrients and gases, changes in predator-prey dynamics, and shifts in the abundance and accessibility of commercially fished species. Although many species will be negatively affected by these effects, others may expand their range or exploit new niches. OMZ shoaling is thus likely to have major and far-reaching consequences.

Equatorial decline of reef corals during the last Pleistocene interglacial

The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125,000 y ago) resulted from rapid global warming and reached global mean temperatures exceeding those of today. The LIG thus offers the opportunity to study how life may respond to future global warming. Using global occurrence databases and applying sampling-standardization, we compared reef coral diversity and distributions between the LIG and modern. Latitudinal diversity patterns are characterized by a tropical plateau today but were characterized by a pronounced equatorial trough during the LIG. This trough is governed by substantial range shifts away from the equator. Range shifts affected both leading and trailing edges of species range limits and were much more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere than south of the equator. We argue that interglacial warming was responsible for the loss of equatorial diversity. Hemispheric differences in insolation during the LIG may explain the asymmetrical response. The equatorial retractions are surprisingly strong given that only small temperature changes have been reported in the LIG tropics. Our results suggest that the poleward range expansions of reef corals occurring with intensified global warming today may soon be followed by equatorial range retractions.