451
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Munday PL, Warner RR, Monro K, Pandolfi JM, Marshall DJ. Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea. Ecol Lett 2013; 16:1488-500. [PMID: 24119205 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 213] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2013] [Accepted: 08/29/2013] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip L Munday
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
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452
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Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Myneni RB, Osborn TJ, Melvin TM, Ciais P, Piao S, Tucker C. Large-scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2013; 19:3167-83. [PMID: 23749553 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 102] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2012] [Accepted: 05/25/2013] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950-2011 to study the long-term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P < 0.01, 1982-2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, P < 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, P > 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long-term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO(2) annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO(2) uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO(2) to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Barichivich
- Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
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453
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Sexton JP, Hangartner SB, Hoffmann AA. GENETIC ISOLATION BY ENVIRONMENT OR DISTANCE: WHICH PATTERN OF GENE FLOW IS MOST COMMON? Evolution 2013; 68:1-15. [DOI: 10.1111/evo.12258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 467] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2012] [Accepted: 08/19/2013] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jason P. Sexton
- Bio21 Molecular Science Institute; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Victoria 3010 Australia
| | - Sandra B. Hangartner
- Bio21 Molecular Science Institute; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Victoria 3010 Australia
| | - Ary A. Hoffmann
- Bio21 Molecular Science Institute; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Victoria 3010 Australia
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454
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Caught in the middle: combined impacts of shark removal and coral loss on the fish communities of coral reefs. PLoS One 2013; 8:e74648. [PMID: 24058618 PMCID: PMC3776739 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0074648] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2012] [Accepted: 08/08/2013] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Due to human activities, marine and terrestrial ecosystems face a future where disturbances are predicted to occur at a frequency and severity unprecedented in the recent past. Of particular concern is the ability of systems to recover where multiple stressors act simultaneously. We examine this issue in the context of a coral reef ecosystem where increases in stressors, such as fisheries, benthic degradation, cyclones and coral bleaching, are occurring at global scales. By utilizing long-term (decadal) monitoring programs, we examined the combined effects of chronic (removal of sharks) and pulse (cyclones, bleaching) disturbances on the trophic structure of coral reef fishes at two isolated atoll systems off the coast of northwest Australia. We provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that the loss of sharks can have an impact that propagates down the food chain, potentially contributing to mesopredator release and altering the numbers of primary consumers. Simultaneously, we show how the effects of bottom-up processes of bleaching and cyclones appear to propagate up the food chain through herbivores, planktivores and corallivores, but do not affect carnivores. Because their presence may promote the abundance of herbivores, the removal of sharks by fishing has implications for both natural and anthropogenic disturbances involving the loss of corals, as herbivores are critical to the progress and outcome of coral recovery.
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455
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Pinsky ML, Worm B, Fogarty MJ, Sarmiento JL, Levin SA. Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities. Science 2013; 341:1239-42. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1239352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 797] [Impact Index Per Article: 72.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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456
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457
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Voerman SE, Llera E, Rico JM. Climate driven changes in subtidal kelp forest communities in NW Spain. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2013; 90:119-27. [PMID: 23948150 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2013.06.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2013] [Revised: 06/17/2013] [Accepted: 06/22/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Reconstructions suggest a massive decline of nearly 1400 ha of kelp forest in North Western Spain in 2007. In line with global rising temperatures, we hypothesized that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) surpassed a lethal threshold for kelp. We examined whether changes in SST correlated to the proposed decline in kelp forest. All investigated SST characteristics suggested to affect kelp abundance increased significantly during the past thirty years, reaching extreme values during the last decade. In addition over the past two decades, the landscape formerly dominated by both cold and warm temperate canopy forming and understory species changed to one dominated by warm temperate understory species, resulting in a loss of vertical community structure. Fisheries landing data of kelp associated species was used to support the suggested change in kelp abundance. Subsequent recovery of the kelp appears to be occurring in deeper waters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sofie E Voerman
- Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, Unidad de Ecología, Universidad de Oviedo, C/ Catedrático Rodrigo Uría s/n, 33071 Oviedo, Spain.
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458
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Firth LB, Mieszkowska N, Thompson RC, Hawkins SJ. Climate change and adaptational impacts in coastal systems: the case of sea defences. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE. PROCESSES & IMPACTS 2013; 15:1665-1670. [PMID: 23900344 DOI: 10.1039/c3em00313b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
We briefly review how coastal ecosystems are responding to and being impacted by climate change, one of the greatest challenges facing society today. In adapting to rising and stormier seas associated with climate change, coastal defence structures are proliferating and becoming dominant coastal features, particularly in urbanised areas. Whilst the primary function of these structures is to protect coastal property and infrastructure, they inevitably have a significant secondary impact on the local environment and ecosystems. In this review we outline some of the negative and positive effects of these structures on physical processes, impacts on marine species, and the novel engineering approaches that have been employed to improve the ecological value of these structures in recent years. Finally we outline guidelines for an environmentally sensitive approach to design of such structures in the marine environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise B Firth
- Ryan Institute, National University of Ireland Galway, University Road, Galway, Ireland.
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459
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Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean. PLoS One 2013; 8:e72246. [PMID: 23991072 PMCID: PMC3749108 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2013] [Accepted: 07/07/2013] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.
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460
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461
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Linares C, Cebrian E, Kipson S, Garrabou J. Does thermal history influence the tolerance of temperate gorgonians to future warming? MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2013; 89:45-52. [PMID: 23735816 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2013.04.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2013] [Revised: 04/24/2013] [Accepted: 04/29/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
To date, several studies have provided evidence that thermal stress affects the growth, survival and physiology of tropical and temperate macroinvertebrate species. However, few studies have focused on subtidal temperate species and the potential differential thermal tolerances of populations dwelling under contrasting temperature conditions. To assess the role that environmental history has on the response of the temperate gorgonian Eunicella singularis to thermal stress, we compared populations dwelling in the coldest and warmest areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results show that E. singularis populations from both areas exhibited a high resistance to thermal stress; however, populations from warmer areas had an increased tolerance to thermal stress. Specifically, the upper thermal limits found for cold and warm populations were 28 and 29 °C, respectively. The higher resistance of E. singularis colonies to thermal stress found in this study compared to the field temperature conditions during recent mass mortality events highlights that performing further thermotolerance experiments under contrasting levels of feeding is necessary to fully assess the tolerance thresholds displayed by both study populations. To our knowledge, this study provides the first evidence for the role of thermal history in shaping the thermotolerance responses of Mediterranean marine invertebrates dwelling under contrasting temperature environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cristina Linares
- Universitat de Barcelona, Departament d'Ecologia, 645 Diagonal Av., E-08028 Barcelona, Spain.
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462
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Affiliation(s)
- Craig Moritz
- Research School of Biology and Centre for Biodiversity Analysis, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
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463
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Peijnenburg KTCA, Goetze E. High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton. Ecol Evol 2013; 3:2765-81. [PMID: 24567838 PMCID: PMC3930040 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2013] [Revised: 04/30/2013] [Accepted: 05/06/2013] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katja T C A Peijnenburg
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam P.O. Box 94248, 1090 GE, Amsterdam, The Netherlands ; Department Marine Zoology, Naturalis Biodiversity Center P.O. Box 9517, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Erica Goetze
- Department of Oceanography School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu, Hawaii, 96822
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464
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Rasmann S, Pellissier L, Defossez E, Jactel H, Kunstler G. Climate-driven change in plant-insect interactions along elevation gradients. Funct Ecol 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 153] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Rasmann
- Department of Ecology and Evolution; University of Lausanne; UNIL Sorge; Le Biophore CH Lausanne 1015 Switzerland
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Department of Bioscience; The Arctic Research Centre; Aarhus University; Aarhus 4000 Denmark
| | - Emmanuel Defossez
- Irstea; UR EMGR Ecosystèmes Montagnards; rue de la Papeterie-BP 76 St-Martin-d'Hères F-38402 France
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE); CNRS UMR 5175; 1919 route de Mende Montpellier cedex 5 34293 France
| | | | - Georges Kunstler
- Irstea; UR EMGR Ecosystèmes Montagnards; rue de la Papeterie-BP 76 St-Martin-d'Hères F-38402 France
- Department of Biological Sciences; Macquarie University; Sydney New South Wales 2109 Australia
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465
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Gormley KSG, Porter JS, Bell MC, Hull AD, Sanderson WG. Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. PLoS One 2013; 8:e68263. [PMID: 23894298 PMCID: PMC3718827 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2013] [Accepted: 05/27/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kate S G Gormley
- Centre for Marine Biodiversity and Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Heriot Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
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466
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Regional Conservation Status of Scleractinian Coral Biodiversity in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. DIVERSITY-BASEL 2013. [DOI: 10.3390/d5030522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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467
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Baumann H, Doherty O. Decadal Changes in the World's Coastal Latitudinal Temperature Gradients. PLoS One 2013; 8:e67596. [PMID: 23825672 PMCID: PMC3689001 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0067596] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2013] [Accepted: 05/20/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Most of the world's living marine resources inhabit coastal environments, where average thermal conditions change predictably with latitude. These coastal latitudinal temperature gradients (CLTG) coincide with important ecological clines,e.g., in marine species diversity or adaptive genetic variations, but how tightly thermal and ecological gradients are linked remains unclear. A first step is to consistently characterize the world's CLTGs. We extracted coastal cells from a global 1°×1° dataset of weekly sea surface temperatures (SST, 1982–2012) to quantify spatial and temporal variability of the world's 11 major CLTGs. Gradient strength, i.e., the slope of the linear mean-SST/latitude relationship, varied 3-fold between the steepest (North-American Atlantic and Asian Pacific gradients: −0.91°C and −0.68°C lat−1, respectively) and weakest CLTGs (African Indian Ocean and the South- and North-American Pacific gradients: −0.28, −0.29, −0.32°C lat−1, respectively). Analyzing CLTG strength by year revealed that seven gradients have weakened by 3–10% over the past three decades due to increased warming at high compared to low latitudes. Almost the entire South-American Pacific gradient (6–47°S), however, has considerably cooled over the study period (−0.3 to −1.7°C, 31 years), and the substantial weakening of the North-American Atlantic gradient (−10%) was due to warming at high latitudes (42–60°N, +0.8 to +1.6°C,31 years) and significant mid-latitude cooling (Florida to Cape Hatteras 26–35°N, −0.5 to −2.2°C, 31 years). Average SST trends rarely resulted from uniform shifts throughout the year; instead individual seasonal warming or cooling patterns elicited the observed changes in annual means. This is consistent with our finding of increased seasonality (i.e., summer-winter SST amplitude) in three quarters of all coastal cells (331 of 433). Our study highlights the regionally variable footprint of global climate change, while emphasizing ecological implications of changing CLTGs, which are likely driving observed spatial and temporal clines in coastal marine life.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannes Baumann
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Owen Doherty
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States of America
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468
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Dell AI, Pawar S, Savage VM. Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy. J Anim Ecol 2013; 83:70-84. [PMID: 23692182 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 251] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2012] [Accepted: 03/05/2013] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Environmental temperature has systematic effects on rates of species interactions, primarily through its influence on organismal physiology. We present a mechanistic model for the thermal response of consumer-resource interactions. We focus on how temperature affects species interactions via key traits - body velocity, detection distance, search rate and handling time - that underlie per capita consumption rate. The model is general because it applies to all foraging strategies: active-capture (both consumer and resource body velocity are important), sit-and-wait (resource velocity dominates) and grazing (consumer velocity dominates). The model predicts that temperature influences consumer-resource interactions primarily through its effects on body velocity (either of the consumer, resource or both), which determines how often consumers and resources encounter each other, and that asymmetries in the thermal responses of interacting species can introduce qualitative, not just quantitative, changes in consumer-resource dynamics. We illustrate this by showing how asymmetries in thermal responses determine equilibrium population densities in interacting consumer-resource pairs. We test for the existence of asymmetries in consumer-resource thermal responses by analysing an extensive database on thermal response curves of ecological traits for 309 species spanning 15 orders of magnitude in body size from terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. We find that asymmetries in consumer-resource thermal responses are likely to be a common occurrence. Overall, our study reveals the importance of asymmetric thermal responses in consumer-resource dynamics. In particular, we identify three general types of asymmetries: (i) different levels of performance of the response, (ii) different rates of response (e.g. activation energies) and (iii) different peak or optimal temperatures. Such asymmetries should occur more frequently as the climate changes and species' geographical distributions and phenologies are altered, such that previously noninteracting species come into contact. 6. By using characteristics of trophic interactions that are often well known, such as body size, foraging strategy, thermy and environmental temperature, our framework should allow more accurate predictions about the thermal dependence of consumer-resource interactions. Ultimately, integration of our theory into models of food web and ecosystem dynamics should be useful in understanding how natural systems will respond to current and future temperature change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony I Dell
- Department of Biomathematics, UCLA Medical School, Los Angeles, CA, 90024, USA; Systemic Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, 37073, Germany
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469
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Divergent Arctic-Boreal Vegetation Changes between North America and Eurasia over the Past 30 Years. REMOTE SENSING 2013. [DOI: 10.3390/rs5052093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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470
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Therkildsen NO, Hemmer-Hansen J, Hedeholm RB, Wisz MS, Pampoulie C, Meldrup D, Bonanomi S, Retzel A, Olsen SM, Nielsen EE. Spatiotemporal SNP analysis reveals pronounced biocomplexity at the northern range margin of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua. Evol Appl 2013; 6:690-705. [PMID: 23789034 PMCID: PMC3684748 DOI: 10.1111/eva.12055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2012] [Revised: 12/23/2012] [Accepted: 01/03/2013] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Accurate prediction of species distribution shifts in the face of climate change requires a sound understanding of population diversity and local adaptations. Previous modeling has suggested that global warming will lead to increased abundance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the ocean around Greenland, but the dynamics of earlier abundance fluctuations are not well understood. We applied a retrospective spatiotemporal population genomics approach to examine the temporal stability of cod population structure in this region and to search for signatures of divergent selection over a 78-year period spanning major demographic changes. Analyzing >900 gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in 847 individuals, we identified four genetically distinct groups that exhibited varying spatial distributions with considerable overlap and mixture. The genetic composition had remained stable over decades at some spawning grounds, whereas complete population replacement was evident at others. Observations of elevated differentiation in certain genomic regions are consistent with adaptive divergence between the groups, indicating that they may respond differently to environmental variation. Significantly increased temporal changes at a subset of loci also suggest that adaptation may be ongoing. These findings illustrate the power of spatiotemporal population genomics for revealing biocomplexity in both space and time and for informing future fisheries management and conservation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nina Overgaard Therkildsen
- Section for Population Ecology and -Genetics, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark Silkeborg, Denmark ; Greenland Climate Research Centre, Greenland Institute of Natural Resources Nuuk, Greenland
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471
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Gillson L, Dawson TP, Jack S, McGeoch MA. Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy. Trends Ecol Evol 2013; 28:135-42. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 138] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2012] [Revised: 10/09/2012] [Accepted: 10/11/2012] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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472
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473
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Frederiksen M, Anker-Nilssen T, Beaugrand G, Wanless S. Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2013; 19:364-372. [PMID: 23504776 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2012] [Revised: 09/11/2012] [Accepted: 10/16/2012] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish populations. At the same time, large-scale declines have been observed in many piscivorous seabirds, which depend on abundant small pelagic fish. Here, we combine predictions from a niche model of C. finmarchicus with long-term data on seabird breeding success to link trophic levels. The niche model shows that environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus has declined in southern areas with large breeding seabird populations (e.g. the North Sea), and predicts that this decline is likely to spread northwards during the 21st century to affect populations in Iceland and the Faroes. In a North Sea colony, breeding success of three common piscivorous seabird species [black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica)] was strongly positively correlated with local environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus, whereas this was not the case at a more northerly colony in west Norway. Large seabird populations seem only to occur where C. finmarchicus is abundant, and northward distributional shifts of common boreal seabirds are therefore expected over the coming decades. Whether or not population size can be maintained depends on the dispersal ability and inclination of these colonial breeders, and on the carrying capacity of more northerly areas in a warmer climate.
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474
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Jones MC, Dye SR, Fernandes JA, Frölicher TL, Pinnegar JK, Warren R, Cheung WWL. Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. PLoS One 2013; 8:e54216. [PMID: 23349829 PMCID: PMC3551960 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0054216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2012] [Accepted: 12/10/2012] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).
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Affiliation(s)
- Miranda C Jones
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom.
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475
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Smale DA, Wernberg T. Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat-forming species. Proc Biol Sci 2013; 280:20122829. [PMID: 23325774 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2012.2829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 280] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Species distributions have shifted in response to global warming in all major ecosystems on the Earth. Despite cogent evidence for these changes, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and currently imply gradual shifts. Yet there is an increasing appreciation of the role of discrete events in driving ecological change. We show how a marine heat wave (HW) eliminated a prominent habitat-forming seaweed, Scytothalia dorycarpa, at its warm distribution limit, causing a range contraction of approximately 100 km (approx. 5% of its global distribution). Seawater temperatures during the HW exceeded the seaweed's physiological threshold and caused extirpation of marginal populations, which are unlikely to recover owing to life-history traits and oceanographic processes. Scytothalia dorycarpa is an important canopy-forming seaweed in temperate Australia, and loss of the species at its range edge has caused structural changes at the community level and is likely to have ecosystem-level implications. We show that extreme warming events, which are increasing in magnitude and frequency, can force step-wise changes in species distributions in marine ecosystems. As such, return times of these events have major implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure, which have typically been based on gradual warming trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan A Smale
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
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476
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Denis V, Mezaki T, Tanaka K, Kuo CY, De Palmas S, Keshavmurthy S, Chen CA. Coverage, diversity, and functionality of a high-latitude coral community (Tatsukushi, Shikoku Island, Japan). PLoS One 2013; 8:e54330. [PMID: 23342135 PMCID: PMC3544760 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0054330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2012] [Accepted: 12/11/2012] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Seawater temperature is the main factor restricting shallow-water zooxanthellate coral reefs to low latitudes. As temperatures increase, coral species and perhaps reefs may move into higher-latitude waters, increasing the chances of coral reef ecosystems surviving despite global warming. However, there is a growing need to understand the structure of these high-latitude coral communities in order to analyze their future dynamics and to detect any potential changes. Methodology/Principal Findings The high-latitude (32.75°N) community surveyed was located at Tatsukushi, Shikoku Island, Japan. Coral cover was 60±2% and was composed of 73 scleractinian species partitioned into 7 functional groups. Although only 6% of species belonged to the ‘plate-like’ functional group, it was the major contributor to species coverage. This was explained by the dominance of plate-like species such as Acropora hyacinthus and A. solitaryensis. Comparison with historical data suggests a relatively recent colonization/development of A. hyacinthus in this region and a potential increase in coral diversity over the last century. Low coverage of macroalgae (2% of the benthic cover) contrasted with the low abundance of herbivorous fishes, but may be reasonably explained by the high density of sea urchins (12.9±3.3 individuals m−2). Conclusions/Significance The structure and composition of this benthic community are relatively remarkable for a site where winter temperature can durably fall below the accepted limit for coral reef development. Despite limited functionalities and functional redundancy, the current benthic structure might provide a base upon which a reef could eventually develop, as characterized by opportunistic and pioneer frame-building species. In addition to increasing seawater temperatures, on-going management actions and sea urchin density might also explain the observed state of this community. A focus on such ‘marginal’ communities should be a priority, as they can provide important insights into how tropical corals might cope with environmental changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vianney Denis
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Nangang, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Takuma Mezaki
- Kuroshio Biological Research Foundation, Nishidomari, Otsuki-cho, Kochi, Japan
| | - Kouki Tanaka
- Kuroshio Biological Research Foundation, Nishidomari, Otsuki-cho, Kochi, Japan
| | - Chao-Yang Kuo
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Nangang, Taipei, Taiwan
| | | | | | - Chaolun Allen Chen
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Nangang, Taipei, Taiwan
- Taiwan International Graduate Program-Biodiversity, Academia Sinica, Nangang, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- * E-mail:
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477
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Jenkins EJ, Castrodale LJ, de Rosemond SJ, Dixon BR, Elmore SA, Gesy KM, Hoberg EP, Polley L, Schurer JM, Simard M, Thompson RCA. Tradition and transition: parasitic zoonoses of people and animals in Alaska, northern Canada, and Greenland. ADVANCES IN PARASITOLOGY 2013; 82:33-204. [PMID: 23548085 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-407706-5.00002-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 105] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023]
Abstract
Zoonotic parasites are important causes of endemic and emerging human disease in northern North America and Greenland (the North), where prevalence of some parasites is higher than in the general North American population. The North today is in transition, facing increased resource extraction, globalisation of trade and travel, and rapid and accelerating environmental change. This comprehensive review addresses the diversity, distribution, ecology, epidemiology, and significance of nine zoonotic parasites in animal and human populations in the North. Based on a qualitative risk assessment with criteria heavily weighted for human health, these zoonotic parasites are ranked, in the order of decreasing importance, as follows: Echinococcus multilocularis, Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella and Giardia, Echinococcus granulosus/canadensis and Cryptosporidium, Toxocara, anisakid nematodes, and diphyllobothriid cestodes. Recent and future trends in the importance of these parasites for human health in the North are explored. For example, the incidence of human exposure to endemic helminth zoonoses (e.g. Diphyllobothrium, Trichinella, and Echinococcus) appears to be declining, while water-borne protozoans such as Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Toxoplasma may be emerging causes of human disease in a warming North. Parasites that undergo temperature-dependent development in the environment (such as Toxoplasma, ascarid and anisakid nematodes, and diphyllobothriid cestodes) will likely undergo accelerated development in endemic areas and temperate-adapted strains/species will move north, resulting in faunal shifts. Food-borne pathogens (e.g. Trichinella, Toxoplasma, anisakid nematodes, and diphyllobothriid cestodes) may be increasingly important as animal products are exported from the North and tourists, workers, and domestic animals enter the North. Finally, key needs are identified to better assess and mitigate risks associated with zoonotic parasites, including enhanced surveillance in animals and people, detection methods, and delivery and evaluation of veterinary and public health services.
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478
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Dobrowski SZ, Abatzoglou J, Swanson AK, Greenberg JA, Mynsberge AR, Holden ZA, Schwartz MK. The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2013; 19:241-51. [PMID: 23504735 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2012] [Accepted: 08/17/2012] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916-2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate-driven species range shifts during the 20th century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Solomon Z Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.
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479
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Gilly WF, Beman JM, Litvin SY, Robison BH. Oceanographic and biological effects of shoaling of the oxygen minimum zone. ANNUAL REVIEW OF MARINE SCIENCE 2013; 5:393-420. [PMID: 22809177 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-120710-100849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Long-term declines in oxygen concentrations are evident throughout much of the ocean interior and are particularly acute in midwater oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). These regions are defined by extremely low oxygen concentrations (<20-45 μmol kg(-1)), cover wide expanses of the ocean, and are associated with productive oceanic and coastal regions. OMZs have expanded over the past 50 years, and this expansion is predicted to continue as the climate warms worldwide. Shoaling of the upper boundaries of the OMZs accompanies OMZ expansion, and decreased oxygen at shallower depths can affect all marine organisms through multiple direct and indirect mechanisms. Effects include altered microbial processes that produce and consume key nutrients and gases, changes in predator-prey dynamics, and shifts in the abundance and accessibility of commercially fished species. Although many species will be negatively affected by these effects, others may expand their range or exploit new niches. OMZ shoaling is thus likely to have major and far-reaching consequences.
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Affiliation(s)
- William F Gilly
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA.
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480
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Equatorial decline of reef corals during the last Pleistocene interglacial. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2012; 109:21378-83. [PMID: 23236154 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1214037110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125,000 y ago) resulted from rapid global warming and reached global mean temperatures exceeding those of today. The LIG thus offers the opportunity to study how life may respond to future global warming. Using global occurrence databases and applying sampling-standardization, we compared reef coral diversity and distributions between the LIG and modern. Latitudinal diversity patterns are characterized by a tropical plateau today but were characterized by a pronounced equatorial trough during the LIG. This trough is governed by substantial range shifts away from the equator. Range shifts affected both leading and trailing edges of species range limits and were much more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere than south of the equator. We argue that interglacial warming was responsible for the loss of equatorial diversity. Hemispheric differences in insolation during the LIG may explain the asymmetrical response. The equatorial retractions are surprisingly strong given that only small temperature changes have been reported in the LIG tropics. Our results suggest that the poleward range expansions of reef corals occurring with intensified global warming today may soon be followed by equatorial range retractions.
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481
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Sorte CJB. Predicting persistence in a changing climate: flow direction and limitations to redistribution. OIKOS 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2012.00066.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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482
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Van der Putten WH. Climate Change, Aboveground-Belowground Interactions, and Species' Range Shifts. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2012. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110411-160423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 162] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to current species' range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the same time and rate. This variation causes community reorganization in both the old and new ranges. In terrestrial ecosystems, range shifts alter aboveground-belowground interactions, influencing species abundance, community composition, ecosystem processes and services, and feedbacks within communities and ecosystems. Thus, range shifts may result in no-analog communities where foundation species and community genetics play unprecedented roles, possibly leading to novel ecosystems. Long-distance dispersal can enhance the disruption of aboveground-belowground interactions of plants, herbivores, pathogens, symbiotic mutualists, and decomposer organisms. These effects are most likely stronger for latitudinal than for altitudinal range shifts. Disrupted aboveground-belowground interactions may have influenced historical postglacial range shifts as well. Assisted migration without considering aboveground-belowground interactions could enhance risks of such range shift–induced invasions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wim H. Van der Putten
- Department of Terrestrial Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)/Laboratory of Nematology, Wageningen University, 6700 ES, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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483
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Milazzo M, Mirto S, Domenici P, Gristina M. Climate change exacerbates interspecific interactions in sympatric coastal fishes. J Anim Ecol 2012; 82:468-77. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.02034.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2012] [Accepted: 08/01/2012] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Marco Milazzo
- Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM); University of Palermo; Palermo; Italy
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484
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Wangensteen OS, Turon X, Pérez-Portela R, Palacín C. Natural or naturalized? Phylogeography suggests that the abundant sea urchin Arbacia lixula is a recent colonizer of the Mediterranean. PLoS One 2012; 7:e45067. [PMID: 23028765 PMCID: PMC3444468 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0045067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2012] [Accepted: 08/14/2012] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We present the global phylogeography of the black sea urchin Arbacia lixula, an amphi-Atlantic echinoid with potential to strongly impact shallow rocky ecosystems. Sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase gene of 604 specimens from 24 localities were obtained, covering most of the distribution area of the species, including the Mediterranean and both shores of the Atlantic. Genetic diversity measures, phylogeographic patterns, demographic parameters and population differentiation were analysed. We found high haplotype diversity but relatively low nucleotide diversity, with 176 haplotypes grouped within three haplogroups: one is shared between Eastern Atlantic (including Mediterranean) and Brazilian populations, the second is found in Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean and the third is exclusively from Brazil. Significant genetic differentiation was found between Brazilian, Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean regions, but no differentiation was found among Mediterranean sub-basins or among Eastern Atlantic sub-regions. The star-shaped topology of the haplotype network and the unimodal mismatch distributions of Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic samples suggest that these populations have suffered very recent demographic expansions. These expansions could be dated 94-205 kya in the Mediterranean, and 31-67 kya in the Eastern Atlantic. In contrast, Brazilian populations did not show any signature of population expansion. Our results indicate that all populations of A. lixula constitute a single species. The Brazilian populations probably diverged from an Eastern Atlantic stock. The present-day genetic structure of the species in Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean is shaped by very recent demographic processes. Our results support the view (backed by the lack of fossil record) that A. lixula is a recent thermophilous colonizer which spread throughout the Mediterranean during a warm period of the Pleistocene, probably during the last interglacial. Implications for the possible future impact of A. lixula on shallow Mediterranean ecosystems in the context of global warming trends must be considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Owen S Wangensteen
- Department of Animal Biology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
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485
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Lough JM. Small change, big difference: Sea surface temperature distributions for tropical coral reef ecosystems, 1950-2011. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jc008199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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486
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487
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Cole H, Henson S, Martin A, Yool A. Mind the gap: The impact of missing data on the calculation of phytoplankton phenology metrics. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jc008249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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488
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Harnik PG, Lotze HK, Anderson SC, Finkel ZV, Finnegan S, Lindberg DR, Liow LH, Lockwood R, McClain CR, McGuire JL, O'Dea A, Pandolfi JM, Simpson C, Tittensor DP. Extinctions in ancient and modern seas. Trends Ecol Evol 2012; 27:608-17. [PMID: 22889500 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2012.07.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 117] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2012] [Revised: 07/16/2012] [Accepted: 07/18/2012] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
In the coming century, life in the ocean will be confronted with a suite of environmental conditions that have no analog in human history. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine which marine species will adapt and which will go extinct. Here, we review the growing literature on marine extinctions and extinction risk in the fossil, historical, and modern records to compare the patterns, drivers, and biological correlates of marine extinctions at different times in the past. Characterized by markedly different environmental states, some past periods share common features with predicted future scenarios. We highlight how the different records can be integrated to better understand and predict the impact of current and projected future environmental changes on extinction risk in the ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul G Harnik
- National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, Durham, NC 27705, USA.
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489
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Jørgensen C, Peck MA, Antognarelli F, Azzurro E, Burrows MT, Cheung WWL, Cucco A, Holt RE, Huebert KB, Marras S, McKenzie D, Metcalfe J, Perez-Ruzafa A, Sinerchia M, Fleng Steffensen J, Teal LR, Domenici P. Conservation physiology of marine fishes: advancing the predictive capacity of models. Biol Lett 2012; 8:900-3. [PMID: 22859560 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
At the end of May, 17 scientists involved in an EU COST Action on Conservation Physiology of Marine Fishes met in Oristano, Sardinia, to discuss how physiology can be better used in modelling tools to aid in management of marine ecosystems. Current modelling approaches incorporate physiology to different extents, ranging from no explicit consideration to detailed physiological mechanisms, and across scales from a single fish to global fishery resources. Biologists from different sub-disciplines are collaborating to rise to the challenge of projecting future changes in distribution and productivity, assessing risks for local populations, or predicting and mitigating the spread of invasive species.
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490
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Richardson AJ, Brown CJ, Brander K, Bruno JF, Buckley L, Burrows MT, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Holding J, Kappel CV, Kiessling W, Moore PJ, O'Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Schoeman DS, Schwing F, Sydeman WJ, Poloczanska ES. Climate change and marine life. Biol Lett 2012; 8:907-9. [PMID: 22791706 PMCID: PMC3497116 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony J Richardson
- Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4102, Australia.
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491
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Fraile-Nuez E, González-Dávila M, Santana-Casiano JM, Arístegui J, Alonso-González IJ, Hernández-León S, Blanco MJ, Rodríguez-Santana A, Hernández-Guerra A, Gelado-Caballero MD, Eugenio F, Marcello J, de Armas D, Domínguez-Yanes JF, Montero MF, Laetsch DR, Vélez-Belchí P, Ramos A, Ariza AV, Comas-Rodríguez I, Benítez-Barrios VM. The submarine volcano eruption at the island of El Hierro: physical-chemical perturbation and biological response. Sci Rep 2012; 2:486. [PMID: 22768379 PMCID: PMC3390001 DOI: 10.1038/srep00486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2012] [Accepted: 06/11/2012] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
On October 10 2011 an underwater eruption gave rise to a novel shallow submarine volcano south of the island of El Hierro, Canary Islands, Spain. During the eruption large quantities of mantle-derived gases, solutes and heat were released into the surrounding waters. In order to monitor the impact of the eruption on the marine ecosystem, periodic multidisciplinary cruises were carried out. Here, we present an initial report of the extreme physical-chemical perturbations caused by this event, comprising thermal changes, water acidification, deoxygenation and metal-enrichment, which resulted in significant alterations to the activity and composition of local plankton communities. Our findings highlight the potential role of this eruptive process as a natural ecosystem-scale experiment for the study of extreme effects of global change stressors on marine environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Fraile-Nuez
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Canarias-IEO-COC, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain.
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492
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Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming. Nat Commun 2012; 3:704. [PMID: 22426225 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1713] [Citation(s) in RCA: 166] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2011] [Accepted: 01/30/2012] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.
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493
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Twomey M, Jacob U, Emmerson MC. Perturbing a Marine Food Web: Consequences for Food Web Structure and Trivariate Patterns. ADV ECOL RES 2012. [DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-398315-2.00005-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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494
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Affiliation(s)
- Ralf Ohlemüller
- School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, and Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR), Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
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