Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in otorhinolaryngology

SUMMARY

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in otorhinolaryngology (ENT) are an area of growing epidemiological and clinical interest. The aim of this section is to comprehensively report on the epidemiology of key infectious disease in otorhinolaryngology, reporting on their burden at the national and international level, expanding of the need of promoting and implementing preventive interventions, and the rationale of applying evidence-based, effective and cost- effective diagnostic, curative and preventive approaches. In particular, we focus on i) ENT viral infections (HIV, Epstein-Barr virus, Human Papilloma virus), retrieving the available evidence on their oncogenic potential; ii) typical and atypical mycobacteria infections; iii) non-specific granulomatous lymphadenopathy; iv) emerging paediatric ENT infectious diseases and the prevention of their complications; v) the growing burden of antimicrobial resistance in ENT and the strategies for its control in different clinical settings. We conclude by outlining knowledge gaps and action needed in ENT infectious diseases research and clinical practice and we make references to economic analysis in the field of ENT infectious diseases prevention and care.

High prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension and obesity among persons with a recorded diagnosis of intellectual disability or autism spectrum disorder

BACKGROUND

Obesity and lack of physical activity are frequently reported in persons with intellectual disability (ID) or autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We hypothesised a higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension in this population.

METHOD

We used administrative data for all primary and specialist outpatient and inpatient healthcare consultations for people with at least one recorded diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, hypertension or obesity from 1998 to 2015. Data were drawn from the central administrative database for Stockholm County, Sweden. It was not possible to separate data for type 1 and type 2 diabetes. We stratified 26 988 individuals with IDs or ASD into three groups, with Down syndrome treated separately, and compared these groups with 1 996 140 people from the general population.

RESULTS

Compared with the general population, men and women with ID/ASD had 1.6-3.4-fold higher age-adjusted odds of having a registered diagnosis of obesity or diabetes mellitus, with the exception of diabetes among men with Down syndrome. A registered diagnosis of hypertension was only more common among men with ID/ASD than in the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes and blood pressure health screening, along with efforts to prevent development of obesity already in childhood, are necessary for individuals with IDs and ASD. We believe that there is a need for adapted community-based health promotion programmes to ensure more equitable health for these populations.

Cigarette use is increasing among people with illicit substance use disorders in the United States, 2002-14: emerging disparities in vulnerable populations

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

While cigarette smoking has declined over time, it is not known whether this decline has occurred similarly among individuals with substance use disorders (SUDs) in the United States (US). The current study estimated trends in smoking from 2002 to 2014 among US individuals with and without SUDs.

DESIGN

Linear time trends of current smoking prevalence were assessed using logistic regression models.

SETTING

United States; data were drawn from the 2002 to 2014 National Household Survey on Drug Use (NSDUH), an annual US cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

A representative, population-based sample of US individuals age 12 yeas and older (total analytical population: n = 723 283).

MEASUREMENTS

Past-month current smoking was defined as having smoked at least 100 lifetime cigarettes and reporting smoking part or all of at least one cigarette during the past 30 days. Respondents were classified as having any SUD if they met criteria for abuse or dependence for one or more of the following illicit drugs: cannabis, hallucinogens, inhalants, tranquilizers, cocaine, heroin, pain relievers, simulants and sedatives. A second SUD variable included all drugs listed above excluding cannabis use disorder (CUD). An additional variable included respondents who met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence.

FINDINGS

Among those with any SUD, the prevalence of smoking did not change from 2002 to 2014 (P = 0.08). However, when CUDs were separated from other SUDs, a significant increase in prevalence of smoking was observed among those with SUDs excluding CUDs (P < 0.001), while smoking decreased among those with CUDs (P < 0.001). Smoking declined among those without SUDs (P < 0.001). In 2014, smoking remained significantly more common among those with any SUD (55.48%), SUDs excluding CUDs (63.34%) and CUDs (51.34%) compared with those without these respective disorders (18.16, 18.55 and 18.64%; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of cigarette smoking in the United States increased from 2002 to 2014 among people with substance use disorders (SUDs) excluding cannabis use disorders (CUDs) and declined among those with CUDs and without SUDs. In 2014, the prevalence of smoking was multifold higher among those with SUDs, including CUDs, compared with those without SUDs.

Impaired natural killer cell subset phenotypes in human obesity

Obesity is associated with alterations in functionality of immune cells, like macrophages and natural killer (NK) cells, leading to an increased risk for severe infections and several cancer types. This study aimed to examine immune cell populations and functional NK cell parameters focusing on NK cell subset phenotypes in normal-weight and obese humans. Therefore, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated from normal-weight and obese individuals and analyzed by flow cytometry. Results show no significant changes in the frequency of monocytes, B lymphocytes, or NKT cells but a significantly increased frequency of T lymphocytes in obesity. The frequency of total NK cells was unaltered, whereas the number of low cytotoxic CD56bright NK cell subset was increased, and the number of high cytotoxic CD56dim NK cell subset was decreased in obese subjects. In addition, the frequency of CD56bright NK cells expressing the activating NK cell receptor NKG2D as well as intracellular interferon (IFN)-γ was elevated in the obese study group. In contrast, the frequency of NKG2D- and IFN-γ-positive CD56dim NK cells was lower in obesity compared to normal-weight individuals. Moreover, the expression of the activation marker CD69 was decreased in NK cells, which can be attributed to a reduction of CD69-positive CD56dim NK cells in obese subjects. In conclusion, data reveal an impaired NK cell phenotype and NK cell subset alterations in obese individuals. This NK cell dysfunction might be one link to the higher cancer risk and the elevated susceptibility for viral infections in obesity.

Efficacy and safety of co-administered ivermectin plus albendazole for treating soil-transmitted helminths: A systematic review, meta-analysis and individual patient data analysis

BACKGROUND

The soil-transmitted helminths (STH), Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms, infect 1.5 billion people worldwide and cause an estimated burden of 3.3 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Current control strategies focus on morbidity reduction through preventive chemotherapy (PC) but the most commonly used recommended drugs (albendazole and mebendazole) are particularly inefficacious against T. trichiura. This, together with the threat of emerging drug resistance, calls for new control strategies, including co-administration with other anthelminthics. Ivermectin plus albendazole is widely used against lymphatic filariasis, but its efficacy and safety against STH infections has not yet been fully understood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis on the efficacy and safety of ivermectin-albendazole co-administration in five different databases (i.e. PubMed, ISI Web of Science, ScienceDirect, CENTRAL and clinicaltrials.gov) from 1960 to January 2018. Four studies reporting efficacy of ivermectin-albendazole against STH infections and five studies on its safety met the selection criteria and were included for quantitative analysis. Ivermectin-albendazole was significantly associated with lower risk (risk ratio (RR) = 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.31-0.62) for T. trichiura infection after treatment compared to albendazole alone. The co-administration revealed no or only a marginal benefit on cure and egg reduction rates over albendazole alone for A. lumbricoides and hookworm infections. Adverse events (AEs) occurring after ivermectin-albendazole co-administration were mostly mild and transient. Overall, the number of individuals reporting any AE was not different (RR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.87-1.36) in co-treated and albendazole-treated patients. However, although not statistically significant, sub-group analysis showed a tendency for slightly more AEs in patients with filariasis treated with ivermectin-albendazole compared to those treated with albendazole alone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI = 0.81-2.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a good tolerability and higher efficacy of ivermectin-albendazole against T. trichiura compared to the current standard single-dose albendazole treatment, which supports the use of this co-administration in PC programs. Large-scale definitive randomized controlled trials are required to confirm our results.

Significant improvement in cardiometabolic health in healthy nonobese individuals during caloric restriction-induced weight loss and weight loss maintenance

Calorie restriction (CR) triggers benefits for healthspan including decreased risk of cardiometabolic disease (CVD). In an ancillary study to CALERIE 2, a 24-mo 25% CR study, we assessed the cardiometabolic effects of CR in 53 healthy, nonobese (BMI: 22-28 kg/m2) men ( n = 17) and women ( n = 36). The aim of this study was to investigate whether CR can reduce risk factors for CVD and insulin resistance in nonobese humans and, moreover, to assess whether improvements are exclusive to a period of weight loss or continue during weight maintenance. According to the energy balance method, the 25% CR intervention ( n = 34) produced 16.5 ± 1.5% (mean ± SE) and 14.8 ± 1.5% CR after 12 and 24 mo (M12, M24), resulting in significant weight loss (M12 -9 ± 0.5 kg, M24 -9 ± 0.5 kg, P < 0.001). Weight was maintained in the group that continued their habitual diet ad libitum (AL, n = 19). In comparison to AL, 24 mo of CR decreased visceral (-0.5 ± 0.01 kg, P < 0.0001) and subcutaneous abdominal adipose tissue (-1.9 ± 0.2kg, P < 0.001) as well as intramyocellular lipid content (-0.11 ± 0.05%, P = 0.031). Furthermore, CR decreased blood pressure (SBP -8 ± 3 mmHg, P = 0.005; DBP -6 ± 2 mmHg, P < 0.001), total cholesterol (-13.6 ± 5.3 mg/dl, P = 0.001), and LDL-cholesterol (-12.9 ± 4.4 mg/dl, P = 0.005), and the 10-yr risk of CVD-disease was reduced by 30%. Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) decreased during weight loss in the CR group (-0.46 ± 0.15, P = 0.003), but this decrease was not maintained during weight maintenance (-0.11 ± 0.15, P = 0.458). In conclusion, sustained CR in healthy, nonobese individuals is beneficial in improving risk factors for cardiovascular and metabolic disease such as visceral adipose tissue mass, ectopic lipid accumulation, blood pressure, and lipid profile, whereas improvements in insulin sensitivity were only transient.

The nature and efficacy of culturally-adapted psychosocial interventions for schizophrenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based psychosocial treatments for schizophrenia founded on Western belief systems and values may not be efficacious in different cultures without adaptation. This systematic review analyses the nature and outcomes of culturally-adapted psychosocial interventions in schizophrenia, examining how interventions have been adapted, their efficacy and what features drive heterogeneity in outcome.

METHOD

Articles identified by searching electronic databases from inception to 3 March 2016, reference lists and previous reviews were independently screened by two authors for eligible controlled trials. Data on the nature of adaptations was analysed inductively using thematic analyses. Meta-analyses were conducted using random effects models to calculate effect sizes (Hedges' g) for symptoms.

RESULTS

Forty-six studies with 7828 participants were included, seven adapted for minority populations. Cultural adaptations were grouped into nine themes: language, concepts and illness models, family, communication, content, cultural norms and practices, context and delivery, therapeutic alliance, and treatment goals. Meta-analyses showed significant post-treatment effects in favour of adapted interventions for total symptom severity (n = 2345, g: -0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.36 to -0.09), positive (n = 1152, g: -0.56, 95% CI -0.86 to -0.26), negative (n = 855, g: -0.39, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.15), and general (n = 525, g: -0.75, CI -1.21 to -0.29) symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

The adaptation process can be described within a framework that serves as a benchmark for development or assessment of future adaptations. Culturally adapted interventions were more efficacious than usual treatment in proportion to the degree of adaptation. There is insufficient evidence to show that adapted interventions are better than non-adapted interventions. Features of context, intervention and design influenced efficacy. Investigating whether adaptation improves efficacy, most importantly amongst ethnic minorities, requires better designed trials with comparisons against unadapted interventions.

Targeted CGRP Small Molecule Antagonists for Acute Migraine Therapy

Migraine is a highly prevalent, severe, and disabling neurological condition with a significant unmet need for effective acute therapies. Patients (~50%) are dissatisfied with their currently available therapies. Calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) has emerged as a key neuropeptide involved in the pathophysiology of migraines. As reviewed in this manuscript, a number of small molecule antagonists of the CGRP receptor have been developed for migraine therapy. Incredibly, the majority of the clinical trials conducted have proven positive, demonstrating the importance of this signalling pathway in migraine. Unfortunately, a number of these molecules raised liver toxicity concerns when used daily for as little as 7 days resulting in their discontinuation. Despite the clear safety concerns, clinical trial data suggests that their intermittent use remains a viable and safe alternative, with 2 molecules remaining in clinical development (ubrogepant and rimegepant). Further, these proofs of principle studies identifying CGRP as a viable clinical target have led to the development of several CGRP or CGRP receptor-targeted monoclonal antibodies that continue to show good clinical efficacy.

Clinical classification criteria for nonspecific low back pain: A Delphi-survey of clinical experts

BACKGROUND

Nonspecific low back pain (NSLBP) is a common problem. Attempts have been made to classify NSLBP patients into homogenous subgroups. Classification systems based on identifying the underlying mechanism(s) driving the disorder are clinically useful to guide specific interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To establish consensus among experts regarding clinical criteria suggestive of a dominance of 'articular', 'myofascial', 'neural', 'central', and 'sensorimotor control' dysfunction patterns (DPs) in NSLBP patients.

STUDY DESIGN

A 2-phase sequential design of a focus group and Delphi-study.

METHODS

A focus group with 10 academic experts was organized to elaborate on the different DPs discernible in LBP patients. Consecutively, a 3-round online Delphi-survey was designed to obtain consensual symptoms and physical examination findings for the 5 DPs resulting from the focus group.

RESULTS

Fifteen musculoskeletal physical therapists from Belgium and the Netherlands experienced in assessing and treating LBP patients completed the Delphi-survey. Respectively, 34 (response rate, 100.0%), 20 (58.8%) and 15 (44.12%) respondents replied to rounds 1, 2 and 3. Twenty-two 'articular', 20 'myofascial', 21 'neural', 18 'central' and 11 'sensorimotor control' criteria reached a predefined ≥80% consensus level. For example, after round 2, 85.0% of the Delphi-experts agreed to identify 'referred pain below the knee' as a subjective examination criterion suggestive for a predominant 'neural DP'.

CONCLUSION

These indicators suggestive of a clinical dominance of the proposed DPs could help clinicians to assess and diagnose NSLBP patients. Future reliability and validity testing is needed to determine how these criteria may help to improve physical therapy outcome for NSLBP patients.

The Influence of the Japanese Nationwide Cardiovascular Prevention System Health Guidance on Smoking Cessation Among Smokers: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Aim: We investigated whether 2 types of personalized health guidance (repeated and single counseling) in the Japanese nationwide cardiovascular prevention system promoted smoking cessation among smokers.

Methods: The study included 47,745 Japanese smokers aged 40 to 74 years classified into 2 personalized health guidance schemes. After a 1-year follow-up, we compared the rates of smoking cessation between individuals who had received counseling (“supported”) and those who had not received counseling (“unsupported”). Using propensity score matching analysis, we estimated the average treatment effect (ATE) of each approach on smoking cessation after balancing out the characteristics between the supported and unsupported groups. The propensity score regression model included age, medical insurance type, weight gain since the age of 20 years, exercise, eating habits, alcohol intake, quality of sleep, readiness to modify lifestyle, willingness to receive support, and body mass index.

Results: In the repeated counseling scheme, the age-adjusted rates of smoking cessation in the supported and unsupported groups were 8.8% and 6.3% for males, and 9.8% and 9.1% for females respectively. In the single counseling scheme, the corresponding rates were 8.4% and 7.3% for supported and unsupported males, and 11.0% and 11.7% for supported and unsupported females respectively. The ATE of repeated counseling was + 2.64% (95% confidence interval: + 1.51% to + 3.77%) for males and + 3.11% (−1.85% to +8.07%) for females. The ATE of single counseling was +0.61% (−1.17% to +2.38%) for males and −1.06% (−5.96% to +3.85%) for females.

Conclusions: In the Japanese cardiovascular prevention system, repeated counseling may promote smoking cessation among male smokers.

People with low back pain perceive needs for non-biomedical services in workplace, financial, social and household domains: a systematic review

QUESTION

What needs of non-biomedical services are perceived by people with low back pain?

DESIGN

Systematic review of qualitative and quantitative studies examining perceived needs of non-biomedical services for low back pain, identified through searching of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsycINFO (1990 to 2016).

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with low back pain of any duration.

DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSIS

Descriptive data regarding study design and methodology were extracted. The preferences, expectations and satisfaction with non-biomedical services reported by people with low back pain were identified and categorised within areas of perceived need.

RESULTS

Twenty studies (19 qualitative and one quantitative) involving 522 unique participants (total pool of 590) were included in this systematic review. Four areas emerged. Workplace: people with low back pain experience pressure to return to work despite difficulties with the demands of their occupation. They want their employers to be informed about low back pain and they desire workplace accommodations. Financial: people with low back pain want financial support, but have concerns about the inefficiencies of compensation systems and the stigma associated with financial remuneration. Social: people with low back pain report feeling disconnected from social networks and want back-specific social support. Household: people with low back pain report difficulties with household duties; however, there are few data regarding their need for auxiliary devices and domestic help.

CONCLUSION

People with low back pain identified work place, financial and social pressures, and difficulties with household duties as areas of need beyond their healthcare requirements that affect their ability to comply with management of their condition. Consideration of such needs may inform physiotherapists, the wider health system, social networks and the workplace to provide more relevant and effective services. [Chou L, Cicuttini FM, Urquhart DM, Anthony SN, Sullivan K, Seneviwickrama M, Briggs AM, Wluka AE (2018) People with low back pain perceive needs for non-biomedical services in workplace, financial, social and household domains: a systematic review. Journal of Physiotherapy 64: 74-83].

Mood disorders and circulating levels of inflammatory markers in a longitudinal population-based study

BACKGROUND

There has been increasing evidence that chronic low-grade inflammation is associated with mood disorders. However, the findings have been inconsistent because of heterogeneity across studies and methodological limitations. Our aim is to prospectively evaluate the bi-directional associations between inflammatory markers including interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) with mood disorders.

METHODS

The sample consisted of 3118 participants (53.7% women; mean age: 51.0, s.d. 8.8 years), randomly selected from the general population, who underwent comprehensive somatic and psychiatric evaluations at baseline and follow-up (mean follow-up duration = 5.5 years, s.d. 0.6). Current and remitted mood disorders including bipolar and major depressive disorders (MDD) and its subtypes (atypical, melancholic, combined atypical and melancholic, and unspecified) were based on semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Inflammatory biomarkers were analyzed in fasting blood samples. Associations were tested by multiple linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Current combined MDD [β = 0.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.03-0.55] and current atypical MDD (β = 0.32, 95% CI 0.10-0.55) at baseline were associated with increased levels of hsCRP at follow-up. There was little evidence for inflammation markers at baseline predicting mood disorders at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The prospective unidirectional association between current MDD subtype with atypical features and hsCRP levels at follow-up suggests that inflammation may be a consequence of this condition. The role of inflammation, particularly hsCRP that is critically involved in cardiovascular diseases, warrants further study. Future research that examines potential influences of medications on inflammatory processes is indicated.

Migraine Treatment: Current Acute Medications and Their Potential Mechanisms of Action

Migraine is a common and disabling primary headache disorder with a significant socioeconomic burden. The management of migraine is multifaceted and is generally dichotomized into acute and preventive strategies, with several treatment modalities. The aims of acute pharmacological treatment are to rapidly restore function with minimal recurrence, with the avoidance of side effects. The choice of pharmacological treatment is individualized, and is based on the consideration of the characteristics of the migraine attack, the patient's concomitant medical problems, and treatment preferences. Notwithstanding, a good understanding of the pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic properties of the various drug options is essential to guide therapy. The current approach and concepts relevant to the acute pharmacological treatment of migraine will be explored in this review.

Body Mass Index and Kidney Disease-Related Mortality in Midlife: A Nationwide Cohort of 2.3 Million Adolescents

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the association of body mass index (BMI) in adolescence with mortality attributed to kidney disease.

METHODS

In this study, 2,294,139 Jewish Israeli adolescents with measured weight and height at 17 years old during the military fitness assessment were analyzed with a follow-up extending up to 45 years. All kidney-related outcomes, coded by the Central Bureau of Statistics from death notifications as the underlying cause of death, were obtained by linkage. Cox hazards models were applied.

RESULTS

During 42,297,007 person-years of follow-up (median 18.4 years), 226 deaths related to kidney disease were recorded. There was an increased risk for kidney-related death among adolescents with overweight and obesity with adjusted hazard ratios of 2.7 (95% CI: 1.8-3.9) and 8.4 (5.1-13.8), respectively, with BMI between 18.5 and 22.0 kg/m² as the reference. A 15% increased risk for kidney-related mortality (1.11-1.19) per unit increment in BMI was observed. Furthermore, a multivariable spline model indicated a minimum risk for kidney-related mortality starting at BMI of 18.6 kg/m² with significantly increased risk seen above values of 22.8 kg/m² . The results withstood extensive sensitivity analyses, including stratification of kidney-related death attributed to acute, chronic, and total kidney disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescent overweight and obesity are risk markers for kidney-related mortality over 4 decades.

Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ).

METHOD

We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates.

RESULTS

The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies.

CONCLUSION

The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system.

Population based and animal study on the effects of Schistosoma japonicum infection in the regulation of host glucose homeostasis

Although parasitic infection affects the glucose homeostasis of mice, only few studies have integrated epidemiological and animal data to determine the effect of Schistosoma japonicum infection on mice metabolism. The current study assessed the effects of S. japonicum infection on blood glucose and other metabolic parameters in both patients and animal models of chronic schistomiasis. A total of 2183 patients with chronic schistosomiasis and age- and gender-matched individuals without schistosomiasis (n = 1798) were enrolled in this study. Fasting blood glucose and other metabolic parameters, including body mass index (BMI) and serum triglyceride and total cholesterol, were compared between the two groups. Mice infected with S. japonicum were used to test the effects of the parasite on glucose tolerance. We found that chronic schistosomiasis patients had significantly lower BMI and fasting blood glucose, serum triglyceride, and total cholesterol levels than non-schistosomiasis individuals. In the animal studies, both bisexual and unisexual S. japonicum infection improved glucose tolerance in wild-type mice. Additionally, S. japonicum-infected ob/ob mice, a model that spontaneously develops obesity and diabetes, also had decreased body weight and improved glucose tolerance. We further observed that S. japonicum-infected mice had lower inflammatory gene expression in the visceral white adipose tissue than the control mice. Collectively, our results demonstrated that S. japonicum infection improved glucose tolerance and other metabolic parameters both in human and animals. Downregulated inflammatory gene expression due to S. japonicum infection might be among the mechanisms for the improved glucose tolerance.

Leishmaniasis: current challenges and prospects for elimination with special focus on the South Asian region

Leishmania donovani, the most virulent species of Leishmania, is found in the South Asian region that harbours the majority of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases in the world. The traditionally accepted relationships between the causative species of Leishmania and the resultant disease phenotype have been challenged during recent years and have underscored the importance of revisiting the previously established taxonomy with revisions to its classification. The weak voice of the afflicted with decades of neglect by scientists and policy makers have led to the miserably inadequate and slow advancements in product development in the fields of diagnostics, chemotherapeutics and vector control that continue to hinder the effective management and control of this infection. Limitations notwithstanding, the regional drive for the elimination of VL initiated over a decade ago that focused on India, Nepal and Bangladesh, the three main afflicted countries in the Indian subcontinent is therefore, commendable, with the subsequent status reviews and restructuring of strategies possibly even more so. However, the renewed efforts would need to be combined with plans to combat new challenges in the South-Asian region that includes the emergence of atypical parasite variants, in order to realistically achieve the set goal of regional elimination of VL.

Updating the epidemiological transition model

The main feature of the epidemiological transition is a shift in the recorded causes of death from infectious diseases to other morbid conditions. This paper outlines modifications made to Omran's original model and stages of transition, and suggests that without a focus on aetiology and morbidity, these have been basically descriptive rather than explanatory, and potentially misleading because infections have been confirmed as causes of various chronic diseases. Common infections and related immune responses or inflammatory processes contribute to the multifactorial aetiology of morbid conditions that together make a substantial contribution to overall mortality, and infectious causation is suspected for many others because of strong evidence of association. Investigation into possible infectious causes of conditions frequently recorded as the underlying cause of death can be integrated into a framework for comparative research on patterns of disease and mortality in support of public health and prevention. A theory of epidemiological transition aimed at understanding changes in disease patterns can encompass the role in different conditions and chronic diseases of infections contracted over the life course, and their contribution to disability, morbidity and mortality relative to other causes and determinants.

Multiancestry genome-wide association study of 520,000 subjects identifies 32 loci associated with stroke and stroke subtypes

Stroke has multiple etiologies, but the underlying genes and pathways are largely unknown. We conducted a multiancestry genome-wide-association meta-analysis in 521,612 individuals (67,162 cases and 454,450 controls) and discovered 22 new stroke risk loci, bringing the total to 32. We further found shared genetic variation with related vascular traits, including blood pressure, cardiac traits, and venous thromboembolism, at individual loci (n = 18), and using genetic risk scores and linkage-disequilibrium-score regression. Several loci exhibited distinct association and pleiotropy patterns for etiological stroke subtypes. Eleven new susceptibility loci indicate mechanisms not previously implicated in stroke pathophysiology, with prioritization of risk variants and genes accomplished through bioinformatics analyses using extensive functional datasets. Stroke risk loci were significantly enriched in drug targets for antithrombotic therapy.

The UTE Disc Sign on MRI: A Novel Imaging Biomarker Associated With Degenerative Spine Changes, Low Back Pain, and Disability

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the distribution of the ultra-short time-to-echo (UTE) disc sign (UDS) and its association with disc degeneration, other magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) phenotypes, pain, and disability profiles.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Disc degeneration has been conventionally assessed by T2-weighted (T2W) signal intensity on MRI; however, its clinical utility has been questionable. UTE MRI assesses short T2 components. The authors have identified a new imaging biomarker on UTE-the UDS.

METHODS

One hundred eight subjects were recruited. T2W MRI assessed disc degeneration and other phenotypes, and T1-rho MRI values represented quantitative proteoglycan disc profiles of L1-S1. UDS was detected on UTE (i.e., hyper-/hypointense disc band). A UDS score (cumulative number of UDS levels) and T2W summated lumbar degenerated scores (cumulative disc degeneration score) were assessed. Subject demographics, chronic low back pain (LBP), and disability profiles (Oswestry Disability Index: ODI) were obtained.

RESULTS

UDS was noted in 39.8% subjects, 61.4% occurred at the lower lumbar spine and 39.5% had multilevel UDS. UDS subjects had significantly greater severity and extent of disc degeneration, and Modic changes (P < 0.05). By disc levels, a higher prevalence of disc degeneration/displacement, Modic changes, and spondylolisthesis were noted in UDS discs than non-UDS discs (P < 0.05). T1-rho values were also lower in UDS discs (P = 0.022). The majority of UDS could not be detected on T2W. The UDS score significantly correlated with worse ODI scores (r = 0.311; P = 0.001), whereas T2W cumulative disc degeneration score did not (r = 0.13; P = 0.19). LBP subjects exhibited more multilevel UDS (P < 0.015) but not on T2W MRI (P = 0.53). The UDS score was significantly related to LBP (P = 0.009), whereas T2W cumulative disc degeneration score was not (P = 0.127).

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to report "UDS" in humans. UDS is a novel imaging biomarker that is highly associated with degenerative spine changes, chronic LBP, and disability than conventional T2W MRI.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

2.

Saponin from sea cucumber exhibited more significant effects than ginsenoside on ameliorating high fat diet-induced obesity in C57BL/6 mice

Obesity and its comorbidities are considered to be a severe public health problem. Many natural compounds found in food have been proved to ameliorate the metabolic abnormalities induced by obesity. The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of saponin from sea cucumber (SSC) and ginsenoside (SG) on improving the lipid metabolism in C57BL/6 mice fed with a high fat diet. The mice were randomly divided into six groups including a low fat diet group (LF), a high fat diet group (HF), and four dietary intervention groups. The administration of SSC for 8 weeks exhibited a more significant reduction in HF induced fat mass, weight gain, lipid levels in the liver and serum, and serum glucose and insulin levels than SG. Further research indicated that SSC ameliorated high fat diet-induced obesity in C57BL/6 mice mainly through inhibiting lipid synthesis and accelerating lipid β-oxidation and glycolysis in the liver. These results suggested that saponin from sea cucumber might be applied as a food supplement and/or functional ingredient to relieve metabolic disorders induced by obesity.

High and rising burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis in the Nordic region, 1990-2015

Background and purpose - Osteoarthritis (OA) imposes a substantial burden on individuals and societies. We report on the burden of knee and hip OA in the Nordic region. Patients and methods - We used the findings from the 2015 Global Burden of Diseases Study to explore prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of OA in the 6 Nordic countries during 1990-2015 (population of about 27 million in 2015). Results - During 1990-2015, the number of prevalent OA cases increased by 43% to 1,507,587 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1,454,338-1,564,778) in the region. OA accounted for 1.3% (UI 1.0-1.7) of YLDs in 1990, increasing to 1.6% (UI 1.2-2.0) in 2015. Of 315 causes studied, OA was the 15th leading cause of YLDs, causing 52,661 (UI 34,056-77,499) YLDs in 2015; of these 23% were attributable to high body mass index. The highest relative importance of OA was reported for women aged 65-74 years (8th leading cause of YLDs in 2015). Among the top 30 leading causes of YLDs in the region, OA had the 5th greatest relative increase in total YLDs during 1990-2015. From 1990 to 2015, increase in age-standardized YLDs from OA in the region was slightly lower than increase at the global level (7.5% vs. 10.5%). OA was, however, responsible for a higher proportional burden of DALYs in the region compared with the global level. Interpretation - The OA burden is high and rising in the Nordic region. With population growth, aging, and the obesity epidemic, a substantial rise in the burden of OA is expected and should be addressed in health policies.

Effect of perioperative blood transfusion on the long-term survival of patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Perioperative blood transfusion has been linked to poorer long-term survival in patients undergoing esophagectomy, presumably due to its potential immunomodulatory effects. This review aims to summarize existing evidence relating to the influence of blood transfusion on long-term survival following esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. A systematic literature search (up to February 2017) was conducted for studies reporting the effects of perioperative blood transfusion on survival following esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. Meta-analysis was used to summate survival outcomes. Twenty observational studies met the criteria for inclusion. Eighteen of these studies compared the outcomes of patients who received allogenic blood transfusion to patients who did not receive this intervention. Meta-analysis of outcomes revealed that allogenic blood transfusion significantly reduced long-term survival (HR = 1.49; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.76; P < 0.001). There appeared to be a dose-related response with patients who received ≥3 units of blood having lower long-term survival compared to patient who received between 0 and 2 units (HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.31 to 1.93; P < 0.001). Two studies comparing patients who received allogenic versus autologous blood transfusion showed superior survival in the latter group. Factors associated with the requirement for perioperative blood transfusion included: intraoperative blood loss; preoperative hemoglobin; operative approach; operative time, and; presences of advanced disease. These findings indicate that perioperative blood transfusion is associated with significantly worse long-term survival in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. Autologous donation of blood, meticulous intraoperative hemostasis, and avoidance of unnecessary transfusions may prevent additional deaths attributed to this intervention.

The effects of subcurative praziquantel treatment on life-history traits and trade-offs in drug-resistant Schistosoma mansoni

Natural selection acts on all organisms, including parasites, to maximize reproductive fitness. Drug resistance traits are often associated with life-history costs in the absence of treatment. Schistosomiasis control programmes rely on mass drug administration to reduce human morbidity and mortality. Although hotspots of reduced drug efficacy have been reported, resistance is not widespread. Using Bayesian state-space models (SSMs) fitted to data from an in vivo laboratory system, we tested the hypothesis that the spread of resistant Schistosoma mansoni may be limited by life-history costs not present in susceptible counterparts. S. mansoni parasites from a praziquantel-susceptible (S), a praziquantel-resistant (R) or a mixed line of originally resistant and susceptible parasites (RS) were exposed to a range of praziquantel doses. Parasite numbers at each life stage were quantified in their molluscan intermediate and murine definitive hosts across four generations, and SSMs were used to estimate key life-history parameters for each experimental group over time. Model outputs illustrated that parasite adult survival and fecundity in the murine host decreased across all lines, including R, with increasing drug pressure. Trade-offs between adult survival and fecundity were observed in all untreated lines, and these remained strong in S with praziquantel pressure. In contrast, trade-offs between adult survival and fecundity were lost under praziquantel pressure in R. As expected, parasite life-history traits within the molluscan host were complex, but trade-offs were demonstrated between parasite establishment and cercarial output. The observed trade-offs between generations within hosts, which were modified by praziquantel treatment in the R line, could limit the spread of R parasites under praziquantel pressure. Whilst such complex life-history costs may be difficult to detect using standard empirical methods, we demonstrate that SSMs provide robust estimates of life-history parameters, aiding our understanding of costs and trade-offs of resistant parasites within this system and beyond.

Impacts of air pollution wave on years of life lost: A crucial way to communicate the health risks of air pollution to the public

Limited studies have explored the impacts of exposure to sustained high levels of air pollution (air pollution wave) on mortality. Given that the frequency, intensity and duration of air pollution wave has been increasing in highly polluted regions recently, understanding the impacts of air pollution wave is crucial. In this study, air pollution wave was defined as 2 or more consecutive days with air pollution index (API) > 100. The impacts of air pollution wave on years of life lost (YLL) due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory deaths were evaluated by considering both consecutive days with high levels of air pollution and daily air pollution levels in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. The results showed the durational effect of consecutive days with high levels of air pollution was substantial in addition to the effect of daily air pollution. For instance, the durational effect was related to an increase in YLL of 116.6 (95% CI: 4.8, 228.5) years from non-accidental deaths when the air pollution wave was sustained for 4 days, while the corresponding daily air pollution's effect was 121.2 (95% CI: 55.2, 187.1) years. A better interpretation of the health risks of air pollution wave is crucial for air pollution control policy making and public health interventions.

Chronic Physical Conditions, Multimorbidity, and Mild Cognitive Impairment in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between chronic physical conditions and multimorbidity and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

DESIGN

Nationally representative, cross-sectional, community-based study.

SETTING

Six countries that participated in the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged 50 and older (N=32,715; mean age 62.1 ± 15.6; 51.7% female).

MEASUREMENTS

The definition of MCI was based on the recommendations of the National Institute on Ageing and Alzheimer's Association. Ten chronic conditions were assessed (angina pectoris, arthritis, asthma, cataract, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, edentulism, hearing problems, hypertension, stroke). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the association between chronic physical conditions, multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions), and MCI.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multimorbidity was 49.8% (95% confidence interval (CI)=48.1-51.5%) and of MCI was 15.3% (95% CI=14.4-16.3%). After adjustment for potential confounders, edentulism (odds ratio (OR)=1.24), arthritis (OR=1.24), chronic lung disease (OR=1.29), cataract (OR=1.33), stroke (OR=1.94), hearing problems (OR=2.27), and multimorbidity (OR=1.40) were significantly associated with MCI. There was a gradual increase in the likelihood of MCI (1 condition: OR=1.21, 95% CI=1.03-1.42; ≥4 conditions: OR=2.07, 95% CI=1.70-2.52).

CONCLUSION

These results highlight the need to investigate the underlying mechanisms linking chronic conditions and MCI and whether prevention or treatment of chronic conditions or multimorbidity can reduce the onset of cognitive decline and subsequent dementia, especially in LMICs.

Interventions to prevent global childhood overweight and obesity: a systematic review

In view of the prevalence, health consequences, and costs of childhood obesity, there has been substantial interest in identifying effective interventions to prevent excess weight gain in young people. In this systematic review, we expand on previous reviews of obesity prevention interventions by including recent studies (until May 23, 2017) from all parts of the world. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, Web of Science, CAB Abstracts, and PAIS Index and included randomised controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies, or natural experiments with: (1) a control group; (2) minimum follow-up of 12 months for community-based and home-based interventions or 6 months for school-based and preschool-based interventions; and (3) a primary outcome of BMI, BMI Z score, BMI percentile, body fat percentage, skinfold thickness, waist circumference, or prevalence of overweight or obesity. School-based interventions with combined diet and physical activity components and a home element (n=41) had greatest effectiveness; evidence in support of the effect of preschool-based (n=6), community-based (n=7), and home-based (n=2) interventions was limited by a paucity of studies and heterogeneity in study design. The effectiveness of school-based interventions that combined diet and physical activity components suggests that they hold promise for childhood obesity prevention worldwide. More research with rigorous evaluation and consistent reporting is needed in non-school settings and in combinations of settings.

Liver stiffness measurement predicted liver-related events and all-cause mortality: A systematic review and nonlinear dose-response meta-analysis

Numerous studies have investigated the prognosis value of the liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography in assessing the risk of liver-related events (LREs) and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). However, the shape of the dose-response relationship between them remains unclear. We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and reference lists of articles for studies published up to July 1, 2017, that assessed the LSM in predicting LREs and all-cause mortality among subjects with CLD. Fifty-four observational cohort studies with 35,249 participants were included. Summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated using a random-effects model, and a restricted cubic spline function was used to model the dose-response association. LREs and all-cause mortality were increased in subjects with a high LSM (LRE: RR, 7.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.65, 11.05; I2 = 71.6%; all-cause mortality: RR, 4.15; 95% CI, 2.56, 6.72; I2 = 68.5%). For each unit increment of liver stiffness, the summary RR was 1.06 (95% CI, 1.06, 1.07; I2 = 74.6%) for LREs and 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04, 1.07; I2 = 55.7%) for all-cause mortality. A positive relationship with a nonlinear trend for LSM with LREs and all-cause mortality was examined by a dose-response meta-analysis (P < 0.001). When stratified by etiology, a nonlinear association was also found in patients infected with hepatitis C virus and those coinfected with hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus. In contrast, there was no evidence of departure from linearity among patients with hepatitis B virus infection (Pnonlinearity = 0.072). Conclusion: LSM is useful in screening LREs and all-cause mortality in patients with CLD. Further studies are warranted in assessing the application of LSM in monitoring the risk of LREs and all-cause mortality in clinical practice. (Hepatology Communications 2018;2:467-476).

Clinical Cancer Advances 2018: Annual Report on Progress Against Cancer From the American Society of Clinical Oncology

A MESSAGE FROM ASCO'S PRESIDENT I remember when ASCO first conceived of publishing an annual report on the most transformative research occurring in cancer care. Thirteen reports later, the progress we have chronicled is remarkable, and this year is no different. The research featured in ASCO's Clinical Cancer Advances 2018 report underscores the impressive gains in our understanding of cancer and in our ability to tailor treatments to tumors' genetic makeup. The ASCO 2018 Advance of the Year, adoptive cell immunotherapy, allows clinicians to genetically reprogram patients' own immune cells to find and attack cancer cells throughout the body. Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy-a type of adoptive cell immunotherapy-has led to remarkable results in young patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and in adults with lymphoma and multiple myeloma. Researchers are also exploring this approach in other types of cancer. This advance would not be possible without robust federal investment in cancer research. The first clinical trial of CAR T-cell therapy in children with ALL was funded, in part, by grants from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and researchers at the NCI Center for Cancer Research were the first to report on possible CAR T-cell therapy for multiple myeloma. These discoveries follow decades of prior research on immunology and cancer biology, much of which was supported by federal dollars. In fact, many advances that are highlighted in the 2018 Clinical Cancer Advances report were made possible thanks to our nation's support for biomedical research. Funding from the US National Institutes of Health and the NCI helps researchers pursue critical patient care questions and addresses vital, unmet needs that private industry has little incentive to take on. Federally supported cancer research generates the biomedical innovations that fuel the development and availability of new and improved treatments for patients. We need sustained federal research investment to accelerate the discovery of the next generation of cancer treatments. Another major trend in this year's report is progress in precision medicine approaches to treat cancer. Although precision medicine offers promise to people with cancer and their families, that promise is only as good as our ability to make these treatments available to all patients. My presidential theme, "Delivering Discoveries: Expanding the Reach of Precision Medicine," focuses on tackling this formidable challenge so that new targeted therapies are accessible to anyone who faces a cancer diagnosis. By improving access to high-quality care, harnessing big data on patient outcomes from across the globe, and pursuing innovative clinical trials, I am optimistic that we will speed the delivery of these most promising treatments to more patients. Sincerely, Bruce E. Johnson, FASCO ASCO President, 2017 to 2018.

Air pollution and cardiovascular disease: a window of opportunity

The recent publication of The Lancet Commission on pollution and health is a watershed moment for one of the greatest challenges to cardiovascular health. In this Comment article, we discuss the global burden of air pollution on cardiovascular health.

Justifying an ideal first pregnancy age: Vernacular science knowledge and the facilitation of lay argument

Members of the lay public often draw from vernacular science knowledge-or metaphors, images, and terms related to technical science-to make normative assessments about behavior. Yet, little is known about vernacular science knowledge in terms of its forms and functions. In a national survey, US adults ( N = 688) were asked to identify an ideal age for first pregnancy, and to explain their decision. Participants drew from arguments related to hormonal processes, the language of risk, and the quality and quantity of "eggs" to navigate and identify an ideal timeline for first pregnancy. Their responses illustrated patterns of justification that involved the (a) employment of scientific concepts as heuristic cues for critical analysis, (b) conflation of details, and (c) synecdochal explication. These findings reveal some of the key ways in which vernacular science knowledge may shape the trajectory of lay argument in a range of contexts.

The Science of Obesity Management: An Endocrine Society Scientific Statement

The prevalence of obesity, measured by body mass index, has risen to unacceptable levels in both men and women in the United States and worldwide with resultant hazardous health implications. Genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors influence the development of obesity, and both the general public and health professionals stigmatize those who suffer from the disease. Obesity is associated with and contributes to a shortened life span, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, some cancers, kidney disease, obstructive sleep apnea, gout, osteoarthritis, and hepatobiliary disease, among others. Weight loss reduces all of these diseases in a dose-related manner-the more weight lost, the better the outcome. The phenotype of "medically healthy obesity" appears to be a transient state that progresses over time to an unhealthy phenotype, especially in children and adolescents. Weight loss is best achieved by reducing energy intake and increasing energy expenditure. Programs that are effective for weight loss include peer-reviewed and approved lifestyle modification programs, diets, commercial weight-loss programs, exercise programs, medications, and surgery. Over-the-counter herbal preparations that some patients use to treat obesity have limited, if any, data documenting their efficacy or safety, and there are few regulatory requirements. Weight regain is expected in all patients, especially when treatment is discontinued. When making treatment decisions, clinicians should consider body fat distribution and individual health risks in addition to body mass index.

Burden of disease associated with asthma among the adult general population of five Middle Eastern countries: Results of the SNAPSHOT program

BACKGROUND

Asthma affects millions worldwide resulting in a significant disease burden. However, data on asthma burden from the Middle East is limited. This analysis describes the asthma burden in Egypt, Turkey and a Gulf cluster (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) as part of the SNAPSHOT program.

METHODS

SNAPSHOT was an observational, cross-sectional program carried out by telephone in a random sample of the adult general population of the five above mentioned countries. Quotas were defined per country demographics. Subjects were considered to have asthma if they fulfilled the screening criteria, based on the global Asthma Insights and Reality studies. Data collected included demographics, physician consultations, and asthma control (measured by the Asthma Control Test; ACT). Quality of life was assessed using the EuroQol Five-Dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D); and limitations to daily activities using the modified Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS).

RESULTS

939 subjects answered questions related to asthma burden. Overall, 367 (44.2%) reported uncontrolled asthma (ACT≤19), and reported significantly lower EQ-5D-3L utility values (0.6 ± 0.4) and EQ-VAS scores (60.7 ± 24.2) compared to controlled subjects (0.8 ± 0.3 and 75.3 ± 19.8 respectively) (p < 0.0001). A significantly higher proportion with uncontrolled asthma also reported experiencing impact on activities of daily living compared to subjects with controlled asthma (p < 0.0001). Overall, 355 (37.8%) asthma subjects were followed by a physician. However, most visits were unscheduled (695;78.0%).

CONCLUSION

Uncontrolled asthma imposes a significant burden in these Middle Eastern countries resulting in increased frequency of healthcare use, lower quality of life, and a higher impact on daily life compared to controlled asthma.

Migraine

Migraine is a chronic paroxysmal neurological disorder characterised by multiphase attacks of head pain and a myriad of neurological symptoms. The underlying genetic and biological underpinnings and neural networks involved are coming sharply into focus. This progress in the fundamental understanding of migraine has led to novel, mechanism-based and disease-specific therapeutics. In this Seminar, the clinical features and neurobiology of migraine are reviewed, evidence to support available treatment options is provided, and emerging drug, device, and biological therapies are discussed.

Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Estimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000-500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths using country-specific influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates from 1999-2015.

METHODS

We estimated country-specific influenza-associated respiratory excess mortality rates (EMR) for 33 countries using time series log-linear regression models with vital death records and influenza surveillance data. To extrapolate estimates to countries without data, we divided countries into three analytic divisions for three age groups (<65 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years) using WHO Global Health Estimate (GHE) respiratory infection mortality rates. We calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR) to account for differences in risk of influenza death across countries by comparing GHE respiratory infection mortality rates from countries without EMR estimates with those with estimates. To calculate death estimates for individual countries within each age-specific analytic division, we multiplied randomly selected mean annual EMRs by the country's MRR and population. Global 95% credible interval (CrI) estimates were obtained from the posterior distribution of the sum of country-specific estimates to represent the range of possible influenza-associated deaths in a season or year. We calculated influenza-associated deaths for children younger than 5 years for 92 countries with high rates of mortality due to respiratory infection using the same methods.

FINDINGS

EMR-contributing countries represented 57% of the global population. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated respiratory EMR ranged from 0·1 to 6·4 per 100 000 individuals for people younger than 65 years, 2·9 to 44·0 per 100 000 individuals for people aged between 65 and 74 years, and 17·9 to 223·5 per 100 000 for people older than 75 years. We estimated that 291 243-645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0-8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually. The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8-16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5-9·2 per 100 000 individuals), and among people aged 75 years or older (51·3-99·4 per 100 000 individuals). For 92 countries, we estimated that among children younger than 5 years, 9243-105 690 influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually.

INTERPRETATION

These global influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates are higher than previously reported, suggesting that previous estimates might have underestimated disease burden. The contribution of non-respiratory causes of death to global influenza-associated mortality should be investigated.

FUNDING

None.

Childhood obesity in Mexico: social determinants of health and other risk factors

Approximately 50 million children and adolescents in Latin America are affected by the childhood obesity pandemic. We present the case of a 5-year-old Mexican girl with obesity and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), in whom prenatal, lifestyle and environmental risk factors were identified. Here, we demonstrate how childhood obesity is rooted since pregnancy and the perinatal stage, and how the social determinants of health like unsafe outdoor conditions, lack of infrastructure to exercise and a suboptimal physical activity curriculum in government schools strongly influence the development and maintenance of childhood obesity and complicate management.

Risk of ischemic stroke in metabolically healthy obesity: A nationwide population-based study

Background

Whether metabolically healthy obese (MHO) individuals are at increased risk of ischemic stroke is not well known. We investigated the association of the MHO phenotype with ischemic stroke.

Methods

A total of 354,083 adults (age 45.8 ± 14.2 years) from the Korean National Health Insurance Service–National Sample Cohort enrolled in 2004–2008 were followed-up for incident ischemic stroke until 2013. Subjects meeting none of the metabolic syndrome criteria were classified as ‘metabolically healthy’. The cohort was categorized into four groups according to obesity and metabolic status: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), MHO, and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO).

Results

Ischemic stroke was newly diagnosed in 4,884 (1.4%) individuals during a mean follow-up of 7.4 ± 1.5 years. Stroke incidence rates for the MHNW, MUNW, MHO, and MUO groups were 0.56, 2.61, 0.61, and 2.76 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. While risk for stroke increased significantly in metabolically unhealthy groups, it was not increased in MHO compared to the MHNW group on multivariate analysis. In metabolically healthy individuals, obesity did not increase the risk for ischemic stroke, regardless of the severity of obesity. Meanwhile, in metabolically unhealthy individuals, being obese was significantly associated with increased risk of stroke.

Conclusions

MHO individuals were not at increased risk for ischemic stroke. However, obesity increased risk for ischemic stroke in persons with metabolic risk factors; therefore, maintaining normal weight may be more important for this population. Also, metabolic unhealthiness showed greater association than obesity with stroke.