Multiple Cardiac Biomarkers to Improve Prediction of Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study

BACKGROUND

Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific, combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction.

METHODS

In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 risk factors.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 18 383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th-75th percentile, 35-58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th-75th percentile, 10.8-13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to the base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: + 0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.

Cardiovascular events and venous thromboembolism after primary malignant or non-malignant brain tumour diagnosis: a population matched cohort study in Wales (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND

Elevated standardised mortality ratio of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in patients with brain tumours may result from differences in the CVD incidences and cardiovascular risk factors. We compared the risk of CVD among patients with a primary malignant or non-malignant brain tumour to a matched general population cohort, accounting for other co-morbidities.

METHODS

Using data from the Secured Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales (United Kingdom), we identified all adults aged ≥ 18 years in the primary care database with first diagnosis of malignant or non-malignant brain tumour identified in the cancer registry in 2000-2014 and a matched cohort (case-to-control ratio 1:5) by age, sex and primary care provider from the general population without any cancer diagnosis. Outcomes included fatal and non-fatal major vascular events (stroke, ischaemic heart disease, aortic and peripheral vascular diseases) and venous thromboembolism (VTE). We used multivariable Cox models adjusted for clinical risk factors to compare risks, stratified by tumour behaviour (malignant or non-malignant) and follow-up period.

RESULTS

There were 2869 and 3931 people diagnosed with malignant or non-malignant brain tumours, respectively, between 2000 and 2014 in Wales. They were matched to 33,785 controls. Within the first year of tumour diagnosis, malignant tumour was associated with a higher risk of VTE (hazard ratio [HR] 21.58, 95% confidence interval 16.12-28.88) and stroke (HR 3.32, 2.44-4.53). After the first year, the risks of VTE (HR 2.20, 1.52-3.18) and stroke (HR 1.45, 1.00-2.10) remained higher than controls. Patients with non-malignant tumours had higher risks of VTE (HR 3.72, 2.73-5.06), stroke (HR 4.06, 3.35-4.93) and aortic and peripheral arterial disease (HR 2.09, 1.26-3.48) within the first year of diagnosis compared with their controls.

CONCLUSIONS

The elevated CVD and VTE risks suggested risk reduction may be a strategy to improve life quality and survival in people with a brain tumour.

Cardiovascular imaging research priorities

OBJECTIVES

Two interlinked surveys were organised by the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, which aimed to establish national priorities for cardiovascular imaging research.

METHODS

First a single time point public survey explored their views of cardiovascular imaging research. Subsequently, a three-phase modified Delphi prioritisation exercise was performed by researchers and healthcare professionals. Research questions were submitted by a diverse range of stakeholders to the question 'What are the most important research questions that cardiovascular imaging should be used to address?'. Of these, 100 research questions were prioritised based on their positive impact for patients. The 32 highest rated questions were further prioritised based on three domains: positive impact for patients, potential to reduce inequalities in healthcare and ability to be implemented into UK healthcare practice in a timely manner.

RESULTS

The public survey was completed by 354 individuals, with the highest rated areas relating to improving treatment, quality of life and diagnosis. In the second survey, 506 research questions were submitted by diverse stakeholders. Prioritisation was performed by 90 researchers or healthcare professionals in the first round and 64 in the second round. The highest rated questions were 'How do we ensure patients have equal access to cardiovascular imaging when it is needed?' and 'How can we use cardiovascular imaging to avoid invasive procedures'. There was general agreement between healthcare professionals and researchers regarding priorities for the positive impact for patients and least agreement for their ability to be implemented into UK healthcare practice in a timely manner. There was broad overlap between the prioritised research questions and the results of the public survey.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified priorities for cardiovascular imaging research, incorporating the views of diverse stakeholders. These priorities will be useful for researchers, funders and other organisations planning future research.

Impact of tumour characteristics and cancer treatment on cerebrovascular mortality after glioma diagnosis: Evidence from a population-based cancer registry

Objective

We aimed to examine brain tumour grade, a marker of biological aggressiveness, tumour size and cancer treatment are associated with cerebrovascular mortality among patients with malignant glioma, the most common and aggressive type of brain tumour.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study using the US National Cancer Institute's state and regional population-based cancer registries. We identified adult patients with glioma in 2000 to 2018 (N=72,916). The primary outcome was death from cerebrovascular disease. Cox regression modelling was used to estimate the associations with cerebrovascular mortality of tumour grade, tumour size and treatment (surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy), calculating hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for these factors as well as for age, sex, race, marital status and calendar year.

Results

Higher grade (Grade IV vs Grade II: HR=2.47, 95% CI=1.69-3.61, p<0.001) and larger brain tumours (size 3 to <6 cm: HR=1.40, 95% CI=1.03 -1.89, p<0.05; size ≥ 6 cm: HR=1.47, 95% CI=1.02-2.13, p<0.05 compared to size < 3cm) were associated with increased cerebrovascular mortality. Cancer treatment was associated with decreased risk (surgery: HR= 0.60, p<0.001; chemotherapy: HR=0.42, p<0.001; radiation: HR= 0.69, p<0.05). However, among patents surviving five years or more from cancer diagnosis radiotherapy was associated with higher risk of cerebrovascular mortality (HR 2.73, 95% CI 1.49-4.99, p<0.01).

Conclusion

More aggressive tumour characteristics are associated with increased cerebrovascular mortality. Radiotherapy increased risk of cerebrovascular mortality five-year after cancer diagnosis. Further research is needed to better understand the long-term cardiovascular consequences of radiation therapy, and whether the consequent risk can be mitigated.

Contribution of Common Genetic Variants to Risk of Early-Onset Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Current genome-wide association studies of ischemic stroke have focused primarily on late-onset disease. As a complement to these studies, we sought to identify the contribution of common genetic variants to risk of early-onset ischemic stroke.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of early-onset stroke (EOS), ages 18-59 years, using individual-level data or summary statistics in 16,730 cases and 599,237 nonstroke controls obtained across 48 different studies. We further compared effect sizes at associated loci between EOS and late-onset stroke (LOS) and compared polygenic risk scores (PRS) for venous thromboembolism (VTE) between EOS and LOS.

RESULTS

We observed genome-wide significant associations of EOS with 2 variants in ABO, a known stroke locus. These variants tag blood subgroups O1 and A1, and the effect sizes of both variants were significantly larger in EOS compared with LOS. The odds ratio (OR) for rs529565, tagging O1, was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-0.91) in EOS vs 0.96 (95% CI: 0.92-1.00) in LOS, and the OR for rs635634, tagging A1, was 1.16 (1.11-1.21) for EOS vs 1.05 (0.99-1.11) in LOS; p-values for interaction = 0.001 and 0.005, respectively. Using PRSs, we observed that greater genetic risk for VTE, another prothrombotic condition, was more strongly associated with EOS compared with LOS (p = 0.008).

DISCUSSION

The ABO locus, genetically predicted blood group A, and higher genetic propensity for venous thrombosis are more strongly associated with EOS than with LOS, supporting a stronger role of prothrombotic factors in EOS.

Severe mental illness and quality of care for type 2 diabetes: A retrospective population-based cohort study

AIMS

To compare quality of care for type 2 diabetes in people with severe mental illness (SMI) versus no mental illness.

METHODS

We used routinely collected linked data to create a retrospective cohort study. We included 158,901 people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in Scotland during 2009-2018 of whom 1701 (1%), 768 (0.5%) and 5211 (3%) had a prior hospital admission record for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depression, respectively. We compared recording of HbA1c, cholesterol, creatinine, blood pressure, urinary albumin, foot examination, retinopathy screening, body mass index and smoking during the first year after diabetes diagnosis using logistic regression and recording of HbA1c and retinopathy screening over longer follow-up using generalised linear mixed effects model, adjusting for confounding factors.

RESULTS

Receipt of care during the first year was generally similar, or better, for people with each SMI than for people without any mental illness. During mean follow up of 4.8 (SD 2.5) years, depression and bipolar disorder were associated with lower odds of receiving retinopathy screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Receipt of diabetes care was similar or better among people with SMI versus without SMI. However, mechanisms to support improved retinopathy screening for people with SMI are needed.

Association of severe mental illness with stroke outcomes and process-of-care quality indicators: nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Severe mental illness (SMI) is associated with increased stroke risk, but little is known about how SMI relates to stroke prognosis and receipt of acute care.

AIMS

To determine the association between SMI and stroke outcomes and receipt of process-of-care quality indicators (such as timely admission to stroke unit).

METHOD

We conducted a cohort study using routinely collected linked data-sets, including adults with a first hospital admission for stroke in Scotland during 1991-2014, with process-of-care quality indicator data available from 2010. We identified pre-existing schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression from hospital records. We used logistic regression to evaluate 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality and receipt of process-of-care quality indicators by pre-existing SMI, adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. We used Cox regression to evaluate further stroke and vascular events (stroke and myocardial infarction).

RESULTS

Among 228 699 patients who had had a stroke, 1186 (0.5%), 859 (0.4%), 7308 (3.2%) had schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression, respectively. Overall, median follow-up was 2.6 years. Compared with adults without a record of mental illness, 30-day mortality was higher for schizophrenia (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.33, 95% CI 1.16-1.52), bipolar disorder (aOR = 1.37, 95% CI 1.18-1.60) and major depression (aOR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.18). Each disorder was also associated with marked increased risk of 1-year and 5-year mortality and further stroke and vascular events. There were no clear differences in receipt of process-of-care quality indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-existing SMI was associated with higher risks of mortality and further vascular events. Urgent action is needed to better understand and address the reasons for these disparities.

Evaluation of antithrombotic use and COVID-19 outcomes in a nationwide atrial fibrillation cohort

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate antithrombotic (AT) use in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) and at high risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2) and investigate whether pre-existing AT use may improve COVID-19 outcomes.

METHODS

Individuals with AF and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 on 1 January 2020 were identified using electronic health records for 56 million people in England and were followed up until 1 May 2021. Factors associated with pre-existing AT use were analysed using logistic regression. Differences in COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death were analysed using logistic and Cox regression in individuals with pre-existing AT use versus no AT use, anticoagulants (AC) versus antiplatelets (AP), and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin.

RESULTS

From 972 971 individuals with AF (age 79 (±9.3), female 46.2%) and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, 88.0% (n=856 336) had pre-existing AT use, 3.8% (n=37 418) had a COVID-19 hospitalisation and 2.2% (n=21 116) died, followed up to 1 May 2021. Factors associated with no AT use included comorbidities that may contraindicate AT use (liver disease and history of falls) and demographics (socioeconomic status and ethnicity). Pre-existing AT use was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96), but higher odds of hospitalisation (OR=1.20, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.26). AC versus AP was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.93, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.98) and higher hospitalisation (OR=1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24). For DOACs versus warfarin, lower odds were observed for hospitalisation (OR=0.86, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.89) but not for death (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-existing AT use may be associated with lower odds of COVID-19 death and, while not evidence of causality, provides further incentive to improve AT coverage for eligible individuals with AF.

Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic

AIMS

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths.

CONCLUSION

Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.

Whole-exome sequencing reveals a role of HTRA1 and EGFL8 in brain white matter hyperintensities

White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are among the most common radiological abnormalities in the ageing population and an established risk factor for stroke and dementia. While common variant association studies have revealed multiple genetic loci with an influence on their volume, the contribution of rare variants to the WMH burden in the general population remains largely unexplored. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of this burden in the UK Biobank using publicly available whole-exome sequencing data (n up to 17 830) and found a splice-site variant in GBE1, encoding 1,4-alpha-glucan branching enzyme 1, to be associated with lower white matter burden on an exome-wide level [c.691+2T>C, β = -0.74, standard error (SE) = 0.13, P = 9.7 × 10-9]. Applying whole-exome gene-based burden tests, we found damaging missense and loss-of-function variants in HTRA1 (frequency of 1 in 275 in the UK Biobank population) to associate with an increased WMH volume (P = 5.5 × 10-6, false discovery rate = 0.04). HTRA1 encodes a secreted serine protease implicated in familial forms of small vessel disease. Domain-specific burden tests revealed that the association with WMH volume was restricted to rare variants in the protease domain (amino acids 204-364; β = 0.79, SE = 0.14, P = 9.4 × 10-8). The frequency of such variants in the UK Biobank population was 1 in 450. The WMH volume was brought forward by ∼11 years in carriers of a rare protease domain variant. A comparison with the effect size of established risk factors for WMH burden revealed that the presence of a rare variant in the HTRA1 protease domain corresponded to a larger effect than meeting the criteria for hypertension (β = 0.26, SE = 0.02, P = 2.9 × 10-59) or being in the upper 99.8% percentile of the distribution of a polygenic risk score based on common genetic variants (β = 0.44, SE = 0.14, P = 0.002). In biochemical experiments, most (6/9) of the identified protease domain variants resulted in markedly reduced protease activity. We further found EGFL8, which showed suggestive evidence for association with WMH volume (P = 1.5 × 10-4, false discovery rate = 0.22) in gene burden tests, to be a direct substrate of HTRA1 and to be preferentially expressed in cerebral arterioles and arteries. In a phenome-wide association study mapping ICD-10 diagnoses to 741 standardized Phecodes, rare variants in the HTRA1 protease domain were associated with multiple neurological and non-neurological conditions including migraine with aura (odds ratio = 12.24, 95%CI: 2.54-35.25; P = 8.3 × 10-5]. Collectively, these findings highlight an important role of rare genetic variation and the HTRA1 protease in determining WMH burden in the general population.

Effects of Antiplatelet Therapy After Stroke Caused by Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Extended Follow-up of the RESTART Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The Restart or Stop Antithrombotics Randomized Trial (RESTART) found that antiplatelet therapy appeared to be safe up to 5 years after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) that had occurred during antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy.

Objectives

To monitor adherence, increase duration of follow-up, and improve precision of estimates of the effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ICH and major vascular events.

Design, Setting and Participants

From May 22, 2013, through May 31, 2018, this prospective, open, blinded end point, parallel-group randomized clinical trial studied 537 participants at 122 hospitals in the UK. Participants were individuals 18 years or older who had taken antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed ICH, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 hours. After initial follow-up ended on November 30, 2018, annual follow-up was extended until November 30, 2020, for a median of 3.0 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.0-5.0 years) for the trial cohort.

Interventions

Computerized randomization that incorporated minimization allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Participants were followed up for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic ICH) and secondary outcomes (all major vascular events) for up to 7 years. Data from all randomized participants were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimization covariates.

Results

A total of 537 patients (median age, 76.0 years; IQR, 69.0-82.0 years; 360 [67.0%] male; median time after ICH onset, 76.0 days; IQR, 29.0-146.0 days) were randomly allocated to start (n = 268) or avoid (n = 269 [1 withdrew]) antiplatelet therapy. The primary outcome of recurrent ICH affected 22 of 268 participants (8.2%) allocated to antiplatelet therapy compared with 25 of 268 participants (9.3%) allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.49-1.55; P = .64). A major vascular event affected 72 participants (26.8%) allocated to antiplatelet therapy compared with 87 participants (32.5%) allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.58-1.08; P = .14).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among patients with ICH who had previously taken antithrombotic therapy, this study found no statistically significant effect of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ICH or all major vascular events. These findings provide physicians with some reassurance about the use of antiplatelet therapy after ICH if indicated for secondary prevention of major vascular events.

Trial Registration

isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN71907627.

Might changes in diagnostic practice explain increasing incidence of brain and central nervous system tumors? A population-based study in Wales (United Kingdom) and the United States

BACKGROUND

Increasing incidence of central nervous system (CNS) tumors has been noted in some populations. However, the influence of changing surgical and imaging practices has not been consistently accounted for.

METHODS

We evaluated average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age- and gender-stratified incidence of CNS tumors by tumor subtypes and histological confirmation in Wales, United Kingdom (1997-2015) and the United States (2004-2015) using joinpoint regression.

FINDINGS

In Wales, the incidence of histologically confirmed CNS tumors increased more than all CNS tumors (AAPC 3.62% vs 1.63%), indicating an increasing proportion undergoing surgery. Grade II and III glioma incidence declined significantly (AAPC -3.09% and -1.85%, respectively) but remained stable for those with histological confirmation. Grade IV glioma incidence increased overall (AAPC 3.99%), more markedly for those with histological confirmation (AAPC 5.36%), suggesting reduced glioma subtype misclassification due to increased surgery. In the United States, the incidence of CNS tumors increased overall but was stable for histologically confirmed tumors (AAPC 1.86% vs 0.09%) indicating an increase in patients diagnosed without surgery. An increase in grade IV gliomas (AAPC 0.28%) and a decline in grade II gliomas (AAPC -3.41%) were accompanied by similar changes in those with histological confirmation, indicating the overall trends in glioma subtypes were unlikely to be caused by changing diagnostic and clinical management.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in clinical practice have influenced the incidence of CNS tumors in the United Kingdom and the United States. These should be considered when evaluating trends and in epidemiological studies of putative risk factors for CNS tumors.

Severe mental illness and mortality and coronary revascularisation following a myocardial infarction: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Severe mental illness (SMI), comprising schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression, is associated with higher myocardial infarction (MI) mortality but lower coronary revascularisation rates. Previous studies have largely focused on schizophrenia, with limited information on bipolar disorder and major depression, long-term mortality or the effects of either sociodemographic factors or year of MI. We investigated the associations between SMI and MI prognosis and how these differed by age at MI, sex and year of MI.

METHODS

We conducted a national retrospective cohort study, including adults with a hospitalised MI in Scotland between 1991 and 2014. We ascertained previous history of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression from psychiatric and general hospital admission records. We used logistic regression to obtain odds ratios adjusted for sociodemographic factors for 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality, comparing people with each SMI to a comparison group without a prior hospital record for any mental health condition. We used Cox regression to analyse coronary revascularisation within 30 days, risk of further MI and further vascular events (MI or stroke). We investigated associations for interaction with age at MI, sex and year of MI.

RESULTS

Among 235,310 people with MI, 923 (0.4%) had schizophrenia, 642 (0.3%) had bipolar disorder and 6239 (2.7%) had major depression. SMI was associated with higher 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality and risk of further MI and stroke. Thirty-day mortality was higher for schizophrenia (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.64-2.30), bipolar disorder (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.26-1.86) and major depression (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.23-1.40). Odds ratios for 1-year and 5-year mortality were larger for all three conditions. Revascularisation rates were lower in schizophrenia (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48-0.67), bipolar disorder (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85) and major depression (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83). Mortality and revascularisation disparities persisted from 1991 to 2014, with absolute mortality disparities more apparent for MIs that occurred around 70 years of age, the overall mean age of MI. Women with major depression had a greater reduction in revascularisation than men with major depression.

CONCLUSIONS

There are sustained SMI disparities in MI intervention and prognosis. There is an urgent need to understand and tackle the reasons for these disparities.

Midlife vascular risk factors and risk of incident dementia: Longitudinal cohort and Mendelian randomization analyses in the UK Biobank

INTRODUCTION

Midlife clustering of vascular risk factors has been associated with late-life dementia, but causal effects of individual biological and lifestyle factors remain largely unknown.

METHODS

Among 229,976 individuals (mean follow-up 9 years), we explored whether midlife cardiovascular health measured by Life's Simple 7 (LS7) is associated with incident all-cause dementia and whether the individual components of the score are causally associated with dementia.

RESULTS

Adherence to the biological metrics of LS7 (blood pressure, cholesterol, glycemic status) was associated with lower incident dementia risk (hazard ratio = 0.93 per 1-point increase, 95% confidence interval [CI; 0.89-0.96]). In contrast, there was no association between the composite LS7 score and the lifestyle subscore (smoking, body mass index, diet, physical activity) and incident dementia. In Mendelian randomization analyses, genetically elevated blood pressure was associated with higher risk of dementia (odds ratio = 1.31 per one-standard deviation increase, 95% CI [1.05-1.60]).

DISCUSSION

These findings underscore the importance of blood pressure control in midlife to mitigate dementia risk.

Raised cardiovascular disease mortality after central nervous system tumor diagnosis: analysis of 171,926 patients from UK and USA

BACKGROUND

Patients with central nervous system (CNS) tumors may be at risk of dying from cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined CVD mortality risk in patients with different histological subtypes of CNS tumors.

METHODS

We analyzed UK(Wales)-based Secure Anonymized Information Linkage (SAIL) for 8743 CNS tumors patients diagnosed in 2000-2015, and US-based National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) for 163,183 patients in 2005-2015. We calculated age-, sex-, and calendar-year-adjusted standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for CVD comparing CNS tumor patients to Wales and US residents. We used Cox regression models to examine factors associated with CVD mortality among CNS tumor patients.

RESULTS

CVD was the second leading cause of death for CNS tumor patients in SAIL (UK) and SEER (US). Patients with CNS tumors had higher CVD mortality than the general population (SAIL SMR = 2.64, 95% CI = 2.39-2.90, SEER SMR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.35-1.42). Malignant CNS tumor patients had over 2-fold higher mortality risk in US and UK cohorts. SMRs for nonmalignant tumors were almost 2-fold higher in SAIL than in SEER. CVD mortality risk particularly cerebrovascular disease was substantially greater in patients diagnosed at age younger than 50 years, and within the first year after their cancer diagnosis (SAIL SMR = 2.98, 95% CI = 2.39-3.66, SEER SMR = 2.14, 95% CI = 2.03-2.25). Age, sex, race/ethnicity in USA, deprivation in UK and no surgery were associated with CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with CNS tumors had higher risk for CVD mortality, particularly from cerebrovascular disease compared to the general population, supporting further research to improve mortality outcomes.

Monitoring indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on services for cardiovascular diseases in the UK

OBJECTIVE

To monitor hospital activity for presentation, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19) pandemic to inform on indirect effects.

METHODS

Retrospective serial cross-sectional study in nine UK hospitals using hospital activity data from 28 October 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 10 May 2020 (pre-easing of lockdown) and for the same weeks during 2018-2019. We analysed aggregate data for selected cardiovascular diseases before and during the epidemic. We produced an online visualisation tool to enable near real-time monitoring of trends.

RESULTS

Across nine hospitals, total admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances decreased after lockdown (23 March 2020) by 57.9% (57.1%-58.6%) and 52.9% (52.2%-53.5%), respectively, compared with the previous year. Activity for cardiac, cerebrovascular and other vascular conditions started to decline 1-2 weeks before lockdown and fell by 31%-88% after lockdown, with the greatest reductions observed for coronary artery bypass grafts, carotid endarterectomy, aortic aneurysm repair and peripheral arterial disease procedures. Compared with before the first UK COVID-19 (31 January 2020), activity declined across diseases and specialties between the first case and lockdown (total ED attendances relative reduction (RR) 0.94, 0.93-0.95; total hospital admissions RR 0.96, 0.95-0.97) and after lockdown (attendances RR 0.63, 0.62-0.64; admissions RR 0.59, 0.57-0.60). There was limited recovery towards usual levels of some activities from mid-April 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial reductions in total and cardiovascular activities are likely to contribute to a major burden of indirect effects of the pandemic, suggesting they should be monitored and mitigated urgently.

Genome-wide association study of intracranial aneurysms identifies 17 risk loci and genetic overlap with clinical risk factors

Rupture of an intracranial aneurysm leads to subarachnoid hemorrhage, a severe type of stroke. To discover new risk loci and the genetic architecture of intracranial aneurysms, we performed a cross-ancestry, genome-wide association study in 10,754 cases and 306,882 controls of European and East Asian ancestry. We discovered 17 risk loci, 11 of which are new. We reveal a polygenic architecture and explain over half of the disease heritability. We show a high genetic correlation between ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms. We also find a suggestive role for endothelial cells by using gene mapping and heritability enrichment. Drug-target enrichment shows pleiotropy between intracranial aneurysms and antiepileptic and sex hormone drugs, providing insights into intracranial aneurysm pathophysiology. Finally, genetic risks for smoking and high blood pressure, the two main clinical risk factors, play important roles in intracranial aneurysm risk, and drive most of the genetic correlation between intracranial aneurysms and other cerebrovascular traits.

Tracking Excess Deaths (TRACKED) – an interactive online tool to monitor excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom

Background: We aimed to describe trends of excess mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) stratified by nation and cause of death, and to develop an online tool for reporting the most up to date data on excess mortality Methods: Population statistics agencies in the UK including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish weekly mortality data. We used mortality data up to 22nd May in the ONS and the NISRA and 24th May in the NRS. The main outcome measures were crude mortality for non-COVID deaths (where there is no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) calculated, and excess mortality defined as difference between observed mortality and expected average of mortality from previous 5 years. Results: There were 56,961 excess deaths, of which 8,986 were non-COVID excess deaths. England had the highest number of excess deaths per 100,000 population (85) and Northern Ireland the lowest (34). Non-COVID mortality increased from 23rd March and returned to the 5-year average on 10th May. In Scotland, where underlying cause mortality data besides COVID-related deaths was available, the percentage excess over the 8-week period when COVID-related mortality peaked was: dementia 49%, other causes 21%, circulatory diseases 10%, and cancer 5%. We developed an online tool (TRACKing Excess Deaths - TRACKED) to allow dynamic exploration and visualisation of the latest mortality trends. Conclusions: Continuous monitoring of excess mortality trends and further integration of age- and gender-stratified and underlying cause of death data beyond COVID-19 will allow dynamic assessment of the impacts of indirect and direct mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Accuracy of identifying incident stroke cases from linked health care data in UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

In UK Biobank (UKB), a large population-based prospective study, cases of many diseases are ascertained through linkage to routinely collected, coded national health datasets. We assessed the accuracy of these for identifying incident strokes.

METHODS

In a regional UKB subpopulation (n = 17,249), we identified all participants with ≥1 code signifying a first stroke after recruitment (incident stroke-coded cases) in linked hospital admission, primary care, or death record data. Stroke physicians reviewed their full electronic patient records (EPRs) and generated reference standard diagnoses. We evaluated the number and proportion of cases that were true-positives (i.e., positive predictive value [PPV]) for all codes combined and by code source and type.

RESULTS

Of 232 incident stroke-coded cases, 97% had EPR information available. Data sources were 30% hospital admission only, 39% primary care only, 28% hospital and primary care, and 3% death records only. While 42% of cases were coded as unspecified stroke type, review of EPRs enabled a pathologic type to be assigned in >99%. PPVs (95% confidence intervals) were 79% (73%-84%) for any stroke (89% for hospital admission codes, 80% for primary care codes) and 83% (74%-90%) for ischemic stroke. PPVs for small numbers of death record and hemorrhagic stroke codes were low but imprecise.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke and ischemic stroke cases in UKB can be ascertained through linked health datasets with sufficient accuracy for many research studies. Further work is needed to understand the accuracy of death record and hemorrhagic stroke codes and to develop scalable approaches for better identifying stroke types.

Genetically determined blood pressure, antihypertensive drug classes, and risk of stroke subtypes

OBJECTIVE

We employed Mendelian randomization to explore whether the effects of blood pressure (BP) and BP-lowering through different antihypertensive drug classes on stroke risk vary by stroke etiology.

METHODS

We selected genetic variants associated with systolic and diastolic BP and BP-lowering variants in genes encoding antihypertensive drug targets from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on 757,601 individuals. Applying 2-sample Mendelian randomization, we examined associations with any stroke (67,162 cases; 454,450 controls), ischemic stroke and its subtypes (large artery, cardioembolic, small vessel stroke), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH, deep and lobar), and the related small vessel disease phenotype of white matter hyperintensities (WMH).

RESULTS

Genetic predisposition to higher systolic and diastolic BP was associated with higher risk of any stroke, ischemic stroke, and ICH. We found associations between genetically determined BP and all ischemic stroke subtypes with a higher risk of large artery and small vessel stroke compared to cardioembolic stroke, as well as associations with deep, but not lobar ICH. Genetic proxies for calcium channel blockers, but not β-blockers, were associated with lower risk of any stroke and ischemic stroke. Proxies for calcium channel blockers showed particularly strong associations with small vessel stroke and the related radiologic phenotype of WMH.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports a causal role of hypertension in all major stroke subtypes except lobar ICH. We find differences in the effects of BP and BP-lowering through antihypertensive drug classes between stroke subtypes and identify calcium channel blockade as a promising strategy for preventing manifestations of cerebral small vessel disease.

Tracking Excess Deaths (TRACKED) – an interactive online tool to monitor excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom

Background: We aimed to describe trends of excess mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) stratified by nation and cause of death, and to develop an online tool for reporting the most up to date data on excess mortality Methods: Population statistics agencies in the UK including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish weekly mortality data. We used mortality data up to 22nd May in the ONS and the NISRA and 24th May in the NRS. The main outcome measures were crude mortality for non-COVID deaths (where there is no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) calculated, and excess mortality defined as difference between observed mortality and expected average of mortality from previous 5 years. Results: There were 56,961 excess deaths, of which 8,986 were non-COVID excess deaths. England had the highest number of excess deaths per 100,000 population (85) and Northern Ireland the lowest (34). Non-COVID mortality increased from 23rd March and returned to the 5-year average on 10th May. In Scotland, where underlying cause mortality data besides COVID-related deaths was available, the percentage excess over the 8-week period when COVID-related mortality peaked was: dementia 49%, other causes 21%, circulatory diseases 10%, and cancer 5%. We developed an online tool (TRACKing Excess Deaths - TRACKED) to allow dynamic exploration and visualisation of the latest mortality trends. Conclusions: Continuous monitoring of excess mortality trends and further integration of age- and gender-stratified and underlying cause of death data beyond COVID-19 will allow dynamic assessment of the impacts of indirect and direct mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Longer-term (≥ 2 years) survival in patients with glioblastoma in population-based studies pre- and post-2005: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Translation of survival benefits observed in glioblastoma clinical trials to populations and to longer-term survival remains uncertain. We aimed to assess if ≥ 2-year survival has changed in relation to the trial of radiotherapy plus concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide published in 2005. We searched MEDLINE and Embase for population-based studies with ≥ 50 patients published after 2002 reporting survival at ≥ 2 years following glioblastoma diagnosis. Primary endpoints were survival at 2-, 3- and 5-years stratified by recruitment period. We meta-analysed survival estimates using a random effects model stratified according to whether recruitment ended before 2005 (earlier) or started during or after 2005 (later). PROSPERO registration number CRD42019130035. Twenty-three populations from 63 potentially eligible studies contributed to the meta-analyses. Pooled 2-year overall survival estimates for the earlier and later study periods were 9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6-12%; n/N = 1,488/17,507) and 18% (95% CI 14-22%; n/N = 5,670/32,390), respectively. Similarly, pooled 3-year survival estimates increased from 4% (95% CI 2-6%; n/N = 325/10,556) to 11% (95% CI 9-14%; n/N = 1900/16,397). One study with a within-population comparison showed similar improvement in survival among the older population. Pooled 5-year survival estimates were 3% (95% CI 1-5%; n/N = 401/14,919) and 4% (95% CI 2-5%; n/N = 1,291/28,748) for the earlier and later periods, respectively. Meta-analyses of real-world data suggested a doubling of 2- and 3-year survival in glioblastoma patients since 2005. However, 5-year survival remains poor with no apparent improvement. Detailed clinically annotated population-based data and further molecular characterization of longer-term survivors may explain the unchanged survival beyond 5 years.

The UK Biobank imaging enhancement of 100,000 participants: rationale, data collection, management and future directions

UK Biobank is a population-based cohort of half a million participants aged 40-69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010. In 2014, UK Biobank started the world's largest multi-modal imaging study, with the aim of re-inviting 100,000 participants to undergo brain, cardiac and abdominal magnetic resonance imaging, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and carotid ultrasound. The combination of large-scale multi-modal imaging with extensive phenotypic and genetic data offers an unprecedented resource for scientists to conduct health-related research. This article provides an in-depth overview of the imaging enhancement, including the data collected, how it is managed and processed, and future directions.

Genetically Determined Levels of Circulating Cytokines and Risk of Stroke

BACKGROUND

Cytokines and growth factors have been implicated in the initiation and propagation of vascular disease. Observational studies have shown associations of their circulating levels with stroke. Our objective was to explore whether genetically determined circulating levels of cytokines and growth factors are associated with stroke and its etiologic subtypes by conducting a 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study.

METHODS

Genetic instruments for 41 cytokines and growth factors were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 8293 healthy adults. Their associations with stroke and stroke subtypes were evaluated in the MEGASTROKE genome-wide association study data set (67 162 cases; 454 450 controls) applying inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis, weighted-median analysis, Mendelian randomization-Egger regression, and multivariable Mendelian randomization. The UK Biobank cohort was used as an independent validation sample (4985 cases; 364 434 controls). Genetic instruments for monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1/CCL2) were further tested for association with etiologically related vascular traits by using publicly available genome-wide association study data.

RESULTS

Genetic predisposition to higher MCP-1 levels was associated with higher risk of any stroke (odds ratio [OR] per 1 SD increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09; P=0.0009), any ischemic stroke (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10; P=0.002), large-artery stroke (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.09-1.30; P=0.0002), and cardioembolic stroke (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06-1.23; P=0.0004), but not with small-vessel stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage. The results were stable in sensitivity analyses and remained significant after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Analyses in the UK Biobank showed similar associations for available phenotypes (any stroke: OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.99-1.17; P=0.09; any ischemic stroke: OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.97-1.18; P=0.17). Genetically determined higher MCP-1 levels were further associated with coronary artery disease (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08; P=0.04) and myocardial infarction (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09; P=0.02), but not with atrial fibrillation. A meta-analysis of observational studies showed higher circulating MCP-1 levels in patients with stroke in comparison with controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic predisposition to elevated circulating levels of MCP-1 is associated with higher risk of stroke, in particular with large-artery stroke and cardioembolic stroke. Whether targeting MCP-1 or its receptors can lower stroke incidence requires further study.

The advantages of UK Biobank's open-access strategy for health research

Ready access to health research studies is becoming more important as researchers, and their funders, seek to maximize the opportunities for scientific innovation and health improvements. Large-scale population-based prospective studies are particularly useful for multidisciplinary research into the causes, treatment and prevention of many different diseases. UK Biobank has been established as an open-access resource for public health research, with the intention of making the data as widely available as possible in an equitable and transparent manner. Access to UK Biobank's unique breadth of phenotypic and genetic data has attracted researchers worldwide from across academia and industry. As a consequence, it has enabled scientists to perform world-leading collaborative research. Moreover, open access to an already deeply characterized cohort has encouraged both public and private sector investment in further enhancements to make UK Biobank an unparalleled resource for public health research and an exemplar for the development of open-access approaches for other studies.

Psychological Distress and Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke in the 45 and Up Study

Background The interplay between mental and physical health remains poorly understood. We investigated whether psychological distress is associated with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in a population-based prospective study. Methods and Results We included participants without prior stroke/MI from the New South Wales 45 and Up Study. We categorized baseline psychological distress as low, medium, and high/very high on the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress scale and identified stroke and MI through linkage to hospital admission and mortality records. We obtained sex and age-stratified adjusted and unadjusted hazard ratios for the association between psychological distress and MI and stroke. We investigated for interaction between psychological distress and each of age and sex. Among 221 677 participants, 16.2% and 7.3% had moderate and high/very high psychological distress at recruitment, respectively. During 4.7 (±0.98 SD) years of follow-up, 4573 MIs and 2421 strokes occurred. Absolute risk of MI and stroke increased with increasing psychological distress level. In men aged 45 to 79 years, high/very high versus low psychological distress was associated with a 30% increased risk of MI (fully adjusted hazard ratios, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.12-1.51), with weaker estimates in those aged ≥80 years. Among women, high/very high psychological distress was associated with an 18% increased risk of MI (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.99-1.42) with similar findings across age groups. In the age group of participants aged 45 to 79 years, high/very high psychological distress and male sex had a supra-additive effect on MI risk. Similar estimates were observed for stroke, with high/very high psychological distress associated with a 24% and 44% increased stroke risk in men and women, respectively, with no evidence of interaction with age or sex. Conclusions Psychological distress has a strong, dose-dependent, positive association with MI and stroke in men and women, despite adjustment for a wide range of confounders.

Subtype Specificity of Genetic Loci Associated With Stroke in 16 664 Cases and 32 792 Controls

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple loci associated with stroke. However, the specific stroke subtypes affected, and whether loci influence both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, remains unknown. For loci associated with stroke, we aimed to infer the combination of stroke subtypes likely to be affected, and in doing so assess the extent to which such loci have homogeneous effects across stroke subtypes.

METHODS

We performed Bayesian multinomial regression in 16 664 stroke cases and 32 792 controls of European ancestry to determine the most likely combination of stroke subtypes affected for loci with published genome-wide stroke associations, using model selection. Cases were subtyped under 2 commonly used stroke classification systems, TOAST (Trial of Org 10172 Acute Stroke Treatment) and causative classification of stroke. All individuals had genotypes imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium 1.1 Panel.

RESULTS

Sixteen loci were considered for analysis. Seven loci influenced both hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, 3 of which influenced ischemic and hemorrhagic subtypes under both TOAST and causative classification of stroke. Under causative classification of stroke, 4 loci influenced both small vessel stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. An EDNRA locus demonstrated opposing effects on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. No loci were predicted to influence all stroke subtypes in the same direction, and only one locus (12q24) was predicted to influence all ischemic stroke subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity in the influence of stroke-associated loci on stroke subtypes is pervasive, reflecting differing causal pathways. However, overlap exists between hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, which may reflect shared pathobiology predisposing to small vessel arteriopathy. Stroke is a complex, heterogeneous disorder requiring tailored analytic strategies to decipher genetic mechanisms.

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

BACKGROUND

Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy.

METHODS

RESTART was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK that assessed whether starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. For this prespecified subgroup analysis, consultant neuroradiologists masked to treatment allocation reviewed brain CT or MRI scans performed before randomisation to confirm participant eligibility and rate features of the intracerebral haemorrhage and surrounding brain. We followed participants for primary (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) and secondary (ischaemic stroke) outcomes for up to 5 years (reported elsewhere). For this report, we analysed eligible participants with intracerebral haemorrhage according to their treatment allocation in primary subgroup analyses of cerebral microbleeds on MRI and in exploratory subgroup analyses of other features on CT or MRI. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN71907627.

FINDINGS

Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were enrolled, of whom 525 (98%) had intracerebral haemorrhage: 507 (97%) were diagnosed on CT (252 assigned to start antiplatelet therapy and 255 assigned to avoid antiplatelet therapy, of whom one withdrew and was not analysed) and 254 (48%) underwent the required brain MRI protocol (122 in the start antiplatelet therapy group and 132 in the avoid antiplatelet therapy group). There were no clinically or statistically significant hazards of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage in primary subgroup analyses of cerebral microbleed presence (2 or more) versus absence (0 or 1) (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·30 [95% CI 0·08-1·13] vs 0·77 [0·13-4·61]; pinteraction=0·41), cerebral microbleed number 0-1 versus 2-4 versus 5 or more (HR 0·77 [0·13-4·62] vs 0·32 [0·03-3·66] vs 0·33 [0·07-1·60]; pinteraction=0·75), or cerebral microbleed strictly lobar versus other location (HR 0·52 [0·004-6·79] vs 0·37 [0·09-1·28]; pinteraction=0·85). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the effects of antiplatelet therapy in any exploratory subgroup analyses (all pinteraction>0·05).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings exclude all but a very modest harmful effect of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage in the presence of cerebral microbleeds. Further randomised trials are needed to replicate these findings and investigate them with greater precision.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation.

Publisher Correction: Multiancestry genome-wide association study of 520,000 subjects identifies 32 loci associated with stroke and stroke subtypes

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Factors associated with potentially serious incidental findings and with serious final diagnoses on multi-modal imaging in the UK Biobank Imaging Study: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Feedback of potentially serious incidental findings (PSIFs) to imaging research participants generates clinical assessment in most cases. Understanding the factors associated with increased risks of PSIFs and of serious final diagnoses may influence individuals' decisions to participate in imaging research and will inform the design of PSIFs protocols for future research studies. We aimed to determine whether, and to what extent, socio-demographic, lifestyle, other health-related factors and PSIFs protocol are associated with detection of both a PSIF and a final diagnosis of serious disease.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Our cohort consisted of all UK Biobank participants who underwent imaging up to December 2015 (n = 7334, median age 63, 51.9% women). Brain, cardiac and body magnetic resonance, and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry images from the first 1000 participants were reviewed systematically by radiologists for PSIFs. Thereafter, radiographers flagged concerning images for radiologists' review. We classified final diagnoses as serious or not using data from participant surveys and clinical correspondence from GPs up to six months following imaging (either participant or GP correspondence, or both, were available for 93% of participants with PSIFs). We used binomial logistic regression models to investigate associations between age, sex, ethnicity, socio-economic deprivation, private healthcare use, alcohol intake, diet, physical activity, smoking, body mass index and morbidity, with both PSIFs and serious final diagnoses. Systematic radiologist review generated 13 times more PSIFs than radiographer flagging (179/1000 [17.9%] versus 104/6334 [1.6%]; age- and sex-adjusted OR 13.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.3-17.1] p<0.001) and proportionally fewer serious final diagnoses (21/179 [11.7%]; 33/104 [31.7%]). Risks of both PSIFs and of serious final diagnoses increased with age (sex-adjusted ORs [95% CI] for oldest [67-79 years] versus youngest [44-58 years] participants for PSIFs and serious final diagnoses respectively: 1.59 [1.07-2.38] and 2.79 [0.86 to 9.0] for systematic radiologist review; 1.88 [1.14-3.09] and 2.99 [1.09-8.19] for radiographer flagging). No other factor was significantly associated with either PSIFs or serious final diagnoses. Our study is the largest so far to investigate the factors associated with PSIFs and serious final diagnoses, but despite this, we still may have missed some associations due to sparsity of these outcomes within our cohort and small numbers within some exposure categories.

CONCLUSION

Risks of PSIFs and serious final diagnosis are substantially influenced by PSIFs protocol and to a lesser extent by age. As only 1/5 PSIFs represent serious disease, evidence-based PSIFs protocols are paramount to minimise over-investigation of healthy research participants and diversion of limited health services away from patients in need.

Identifying dementia outcomes in UK Biobank: a validation study of primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data

Prospective, population-based studies that recruit participants in mid-life are valuable resources for dementia research. Follow-up in these studies is often through linkage to routinely-collected healthcare datasets. We investigated the accuracy of these datasets for dementia case ascertainment in a validation study using data from UK Biobank-an open access, population-based study of > 500,000 adults aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 2006-2010. From 17,198 UK Biobank participants recruited in Edinburgh, we identified those with ≥ 1 dementia code in their linked primary care, hospital admissions or mortality data and compared their coded diagnoses to clinical expert adjudication of their full-text medical record. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV, the proportion of cases identified that were true positives) for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia for each dataset alone and in combination, and explored algorithmic code combinations to improve PPV. Among 120 participants, PPVs for all-cause dementia were 86.8%, 87.3% and 80.0% for primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data respectively and 82.5% across all datasets. We identified three algorithms that balanced a high PPV with reasonable case ascertainment. For Alzheimer's disease, PPVs were 74.1% for primary care, 68.2% for hospital admissions, 50.0% for mortality data and 71.4% in combination. PPV for vascular dementia was 43.8% across all sources. UK routinely-collected healthcare data can be used to identify all-cause dementia in prospective studies. PPVs for Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia are lower. Further research is required to explore the geographic generalisability of these findings.

The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage: statistical analysis plan for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

For adults surviving stroke due to spontaneous (non-traumatic) intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) who had taken an antithrombotic (i.e. anticoagulant or antiplatelet) drug for the prevention of vaso-occlusive disease before the ICH, it is unclear whether starting antiplatelet therapy modifies the risks of recurrent ICH, major haemorrhagic events, major occlusive vascular events, or a composite of all major vascular events compared to avoiding antiplatelet therapy.

METHODS/DESIGN

The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) is an investigator-led, parallel group, open, assessor-blind, randomised trial comparing starting versus avoiding antiplatelet therapy for adults surviving antithrombotic-associated ICH. Recruitment began on 22 May 2013 and ended on 31 May 2018. Follow-up ended on 30 November 2018. This update to the protocol describes the statistical analysis plan (version 1.7, finalised on 25 January 2019). Database lock and un-blinding occurred on 29 January 2019, after which the un-masked trial statistician conducted the final analyses according to this statistical analysis plan.

DISCUSSION

Final results of RESTART will be analysed and disseminated in May 2019.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN registry 71907627 . Prospectively registered on 25 April 2013.

Identifying dementia outcomes in UK Biobank: a validation study of primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data

Prospective, population-based studies that recruit participants in mid-life are valuable resources for dementia research. Follow-up in these studies is often through linkage to routinely-collected healthcare datasets. We investigated the accuracy of these datasets for dementia case ascertainment in a validation study using data from UK Biobank—an open access, population-based study of > 500,000 adults aged 40–69 years at recruitment in 2006–2010. From 17,198 UK Biobank participants recruited in Edinburgh, we identified those with ≥ 1 dementia code in their linked primary care, hospital admissions or mortality data and compared their coded diagnoses to clinical expert adjudication of their full-text medical record. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV, the proportion of cases identified that were true positives) for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia for each dataset alone and in combination, and explored algorithmic code combinations to improve PPV. Among 120 participants, PPVs for all-cause dementia were 86.8%, 87.3% and 80.0% for primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data respectively and 82.5% across all datasets. We identified three algorithms that balanced a high PPV with reasonable case ascertainment. For Alzheimer’s disease, PPVs were 74.1% for primary care, 68.2% for hospital admissions, 50.0% for mortality data and 71.4% in combination. PPV for vascular dementia was 43.8% across all sources. UK routinely-collected healthcare data can be used to identify all-cause dementia in prospective studies. PPVs for Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia are lower. Further research is required to explore the geographic generalisability of these findings.

Identifying Parkinson's disease and parkinsonism cases using routinely collected healthcare data: A systematic review

Background

Population-based, prospective studies can provide important insights into Parkinson’s disease (PD) and other parkinsonian disorders. Participant follow-up in such studies is often achieved through linkage to routinely collected healthcare datasets. We systematically reviewed the published literature on the accuracy of these datasets for this purpose.

Methods

We searched four electronic databases for published studies that compared PD and parkinsonism cases identified using routinely collected data to a reference standard. We extracted study characteristics and two accuracy measures: positive predictive value (PPV) and/or sensitivity.

Results

We identified 18 articles, resulting in 27 measures of PPV and 14 of sensitivity. For PD, PPV ranged from 56–90% in hospital datasets, 53–87% in prescription datasets, 81–90% in primary care datasets and was 67% in mortality datasets. Combining diagnostic and medication codes increased PPV. For parkinsonism, PPV ranged from 36–88% in hospital datasets, 40–74% in prescription datasets, and was 94% in mortality datasets. Sensitivity ranged from 15–73% in single datasets for PD and 43–63% in single datasets for parkinsonism.

Conclusions

In many settings, routinely collected datasets generate good PPVs and reasonable sensitivities for identifying PD and parkinsonism cases. However, given the wide range of identified accuracy estimates, we recommend cohorts conduct their own context-specific validation studies if existing evidence is lacking. Further research is warranted to investigate primary care and medication datasets, and to develop algorithms that balance a high PPV with acceptable sensitivity.

Genetic and lifestyle risk factors for MRI-defined brain infarcts in a population-based setting

OBJECTIVE

To explore genetic and lifestyle risk factors of MRI-defined brain infarcts (BI) in large population-based cohorts.

METHODS

We performed meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and examined associations of vascular risk factors and their genetic risk scores (GRS) with MRI-defined BI and a subset of BI, namely, small subcortical BI (SSBI), in 18 population-based cohorts (n = 20,949) from 5 ethnicities (3,726 with BI, 2,021 with SSBI). Top loci were followed up in 7 population-based cohorts (n = 6,862; 1,483 with BI, 630 with SBBI), and we tested associations with related phenotypes including ischemic stroke and pathologically defined BI.

RESULTS

The mean prevalence was 17.7% for BI and 10.5% for SSBI, steeply rising after age 65. Two loci showed genome-wide significant association with BI: FBN2, p = 1.77 × 10-8; and LINC00539/ZDHHC20, p = 5.82 × 10-9. Both have been associated with blood pressure (BP)-related phenotypes, but did not replicate in the smaller follow-up sample or show associations with related phenotypes. Age- and sex-adjusted associations with BI and SSBI were observed for BP traits (p value for BI, p [BI] = 9.38 × 10-25; p [SSBI] = 5.23 × 10-14 for hypertension), smoking (p [BI] = 4.4 × 10-10; p [SSBI] = 1.2 × 10-4), diabetes (p [BI] = 1.7 × 10-8; p [SSBI] = 2.8 × 10-3), previous cardiovascular disease (p [BI] = 1.0 × 10-18; p [SSBI] = 2.3 × 10-7), stroke (p [BI] = 3.9 × 10-69; p [SSBI] = 3.2 × 10-24), and MRI-defined white matter hyperintensity burden (p [BI] = 1.43 × 10-157; p [SSBI] = 3.16 × 10-106), but not with body mass index or cholesterol. GRS of BP traits were associated with BI and SSBI (p ≤ 0.0022), without indication of directional pleiotropy.

CONCLUSION

In this multiethnic GWAS meta-analysis, including over 20,000 population-based participants, we identified genetic risk loci for BI requiring validation once additional large datasets become available. High BP, including genetically determined, was the most significant modifiable, causal risk factor for BI.

Genetic variation in PLEKHG1 is associated with white matter hyperintensities (n = 11,226)

OBJECTIVE

To identify novel genetic associations with white matter hyperintensities (WMH).

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis of WMH volumes in 11,226 individuals, including 8,429 population-based individuals from UK Biobank and 2,797 stroke patients. Replication of novel loci was performed in an independent dataset of 1,202 individuals. In all studies, WMH were quantified using validated automated or semi-automated methods. Imputation was to either the Haplotype Reference Consortium or 1,000 Genomes Phase 3 panels.

RESULTS

We identified a locus at genome-wide significance in an intron of PLEKHG1 (rs275350, β [SE] = 0.071 [0.013]; p = 1.6 × 10^-8), a Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor that is involved in reorientation of cells in the vascular endothelium. This association was validated in an independent sample (overall p value, 2.4 × 10^-9). The same single nucleotide polymorphism was associated with all ischemic stroke (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval (CI)] 1.07 [1.03-1.12], p = 0.00051), most strongly with the small vessel subtype (OR [95% CI] 1.09 [1.00-1.19], p = 0.044). Previous associations at 17q25 and 2p16 reached genome-wide significance in this analysis (rs3744020; β [SE] = 0.106 [0.016]; p = 1.2 × 10^-11 and rs7596872; β [SE] = 0.143 [0.021]; p = 3.4 × 10^-12). All identified associations with WMH to date explained 1.16% of the trait variance in UK Biobank, equivalent to 6.4% of the narrow-sense heritability.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variation in PLEKHG1 is associated with WMH and ischemic stroke, most strongly with the small vessel subtype, suggesting it acts by promoting small vessel arteriopathy.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 3 novel loci associated with stroke

We conducted a European-only and transancestral genome-wide association meta-analysis in 72,147 stroke patients and 823,869 controls using data from UK Biobank (UKB) and the MEGASTROKE consortium. We identified an exonic polymorphism in NOS3 (rs1799983, p.Glu298Asp; p = 2.2E-8, odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04-1.07) and variants in an intron of COL4A1 (rs9521634; p = 3.8E-8, OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03-1.06) and near DYRK1A (rs720470; p = 6.1E-9, OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.03-1.07) at genome-wide significance for stroke. Effect sizes of known stroke loci were highly correlated between UKB and MEGASTROKE. Using Mendelian randomization, we further show that genetic variation in the nitric oxide synthase-nitric oxide pathway in part affects stroke risk via variation in blood pressure. Ann Neurol 2018;84:934-939.

Potentially serious incidental findings on brain and body magnetic resonance imaging of apparently asymptomatic adults: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine prevalence and types of potentially serious incidental findings on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in apparently asymptomatic adults, describe factors associated with potentially serious incidental findings, and summarise information on follow-up and final diagnoses.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analyses.

DATA SOURCES

Citation searches of relevant articles and authors' files in Medline and Embase (from inception to 25 April 2017).

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies included prevalence and types of incidental findings detected among apparently asymptomatic adults undergoing MRI of the brain, thorax, abdomen, or brain and body. Data on study population and methods, prevalence and types of incidental findings, and final diagnoses were extracted. Pooled prevalence was estimated by random effects meta-analysis, and heterogeneity by τ2 statistics.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of potentially serious incidental findings on MRI of the brain, thorax, abdomen, and brain and body.

RESULTS

Of 5905 retrieved studies, 32 (0.5%) met the inclusion criteria (n=27 643 participants). Pooled prevalence of potentially serious incidental findings was 3.9% (95% confidence interval 0.4% to 27.1%) on brain and body MRI, 1.4% (1.0% to 2.1%) on brain MRI, 1.3% (0.2% to 8.1%) on thoracic MRI, and 1.9% (0.3% to 12.0%) on abdominal MRI. Pooled prevalence rose after including incidental findings of uncertain potential seriousness (12.8% (3.9% to 34.3%), 1.7% (1.1% to 2.6%), 3.0% (0.8% to 11.3%), and 4.5% (1.5% to 12.9%), respectively). There was generally substantial heterogeneity among included studies. About half the potentially serious incidental findings were suspected malignancies (brain, 0.6% (95% confidence interval 0.4% to 0.9%); thorax, 0.6% (0.1% to 3.1%); abdomen, 1.3% (0.2% to 9.3%); brain and body, 2.3% (0.3% to 15.4%)). There were few informative data on potential sources of between-study variation or factors associated with potentially serious incidental findings. Limited data suggested that relatively few potentially serious incidental findings had serious final diagnoses (48/234, 20.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of apparently asymptomatic adults will have potentially serious incidental findings on MRI, but little is known of their health consequences. Systematic, long term follow-up studies are needed to better inform on these consequences and the implications for policies on feedback of potentially serious incidental findings.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

Prospero CRD42016029472.

Education, sex and risk of stroke: a prospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the association between highest educational attainment and stroke differed by sex and age; and whether potential mediators of observed associations differ by sex.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Population based, New South Wales, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

253 657 stroke-free participants from the New South Wales 45 and Up Study.

OUTCOME MEASURES

First-ever stroke events, identified through linkage to hospital and mortality records.

RESULTS

During mean follow-up of 4.7 years, 2031 and 1528 strokes occurred among men and women, respectively. Age-standardised stroke rate was inversely associated with education level, with the absolute risk difference between the lowest and highest education group greater among women than men. In relative terms, stroke risk was slightly more pronounced in women than men when comparing low versus high education (age-adjusted HRs: 1.41, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.71 and 1.25, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.46, respectively), but there was no clear evidence of statistical interaction. This association persisted into older age, but attenuated. Much of the increased stroke risk was explained by modifiable lifestyle factors, in both men and women.

CONCLUSION

Low education is associated with increased stroke risk in men and women, and may be marginally steeper in women than men. This disadvantage attenuates but persists into older age, particularly for women. Modifiable risk factors account for much of the excess risk from low education level. Public health policy and governmental decision-making should reflect the importance of education, for both men and women, for positive health throughout the life course.

Molecular genetic contributions to self-rated health

Background: Poorer self-rated health (SRH) predicts worse health outcomes, even when adjusted for objective measures of disease at time of rating. Twin studies indicate SRH has a heritability of up to 60% and that its genetic architecture may overlap with that of personality and cognition.

Methods: We carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of SRH on 111 749 members of the UK Biobank sample. Univariate genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA)-GREML analyses were used to estimate the proportion of variance explained by all common autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for SRH. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression and polygenic risk scoring, two complementary methods, were used to investigate pleiotropy between SRH in the UK Biobank and up to 21 health-related and personality and cognitive traits from published GWAS consortia.

Results: The GWAS identified 13 independent signals associated with SRH, including several in regions previously associated with diseases or disease-related traits. The strongest signal was on chromosome 2 (rs2360675, P = 1.77 x 10^-10) close to KLF7. A second strong peak was identified on chromosome 6 in the major histocompatibility region (rs76380179, P = 6.15 x 10^-10). The proportion of variance in SRH that was explained by all common genetic variants was 13%. Polygenic scores for the following traits and disorders were associated with SRH: cognitive ability, education, neuroticism, body mass index (BMI), longevity, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), major depressive disorder, schizophrenia, lung function, blood pressure, coronary artery disease, large vessel disease stroke and type 2 diabetes.

Conclusions: Individual differences in how people respond to a single item on SRH are partly explained by their genetic propensity to many common psychiatric and physical disorders and psychological traits.

Identifying dementia cases with routinely collected health data: A systematic review

Introduction

Prospective, population-based studies can be rich resources for dementia research. Follow-up in many such studies is through linkage to routinely collected, coded health-care data sets. We evaluated the accuracy of these data sets for dementia case identification.

Methods

We systematically reviewed the literature for studies comparing dementia coding in routinely collected data sets to any expert-led reference standard. We recorded study characteristics and two accuracy measures—positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity.

Results

We identified 27 eligible studies with 25 estimating PPV and eight estimating sensitivity. Study settings and methods varied widely. For all-cause dementia, PPVs ranged from 33%–100%, but 16/27 were >75%. Sensitivities ranged from 21% to 86%. PPVs for Alzheimer's disease (range 57%–100%) were generally higher than those for vascular dementia (range 19%–91%).

Discussion

Linkage to routine health-care data can achieve a high PPV and reasonable sensitivity in certain settings. Given the heterogeneity in accuracy estimates, cohorts should ideally conduct their own setting-specific validation.

Multiancestry genome-wide association study of 520,000 subjects identifies 32 loci associated with stroke and stroke subtypes

Stroke has multiple etiologies, but the underlying genes and pathways are largely unknown. We conducted a multiancestry genome-wide-association meta-analysis in 521,612 individuals (67,162 cases and 454,450 controls) and discovered 22 new stroke risk loci, bringing the total to 32. We further found shared genetic variation with related vascular traits, including blood pressure, cardiac traits, and venous thromboembolism, at individual loci (n = 18), and using genetic risk scores and linkage-disequilibrium-score regression. Several loci exhibited distinct association and pleiotropy patterns for etiological stroke subtypes. Eleven new susceptibility loci indicate mechanisms not previously implicated in stroke pathophysiology, with prioritization of risk variants and genes accomplished through bioinformatics analyses using extensive functional datasets. Stroke risk loci were significantly enriched in drug targets for antithrombotic therapy.

Using data linkage to electronic patient records to assess the validity of selected mental health diagnoses in English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)

BACKGROUND

Administrative data can be used to support research, such as in the UK Biobank. Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) are national data for England that include contain ICD-10 diagnoses for inpatient mental healthcare episodes, but the validity of these diagnoses for research purposes has not been assessed.

METHODS

250 peoples' HES records were selected based on a HES recorded inpatient stay at the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, a wider schizophrenia spectrum disorder, bipolar affective disorder or unipolar depression. A gold-standard research diagnosis was made using Clinical Records Interactive Search pseudonymised electronic patient records using, and the OPCRIT+ algorithm.

RESULTS

Positive predictive value at the level of lifetime psychiatric disorder was 100%, and at the level of lifetime diagnosis in the four categories of schizophrenia, wider schizophrenia spectrum, bipolar or unipolar depression was 73% (68-79). Agreement varied by diagnosis, with schizophrenia having the highest PPV at 90% (80-96). Each person had an average of five psychiatric HES records. An algorithm that looked at the last recorded psychiatric diagnosis led to greatest overall agreement with the research diagnosis.

DISCUSSION

For people who have a HES record from a psychiatric admission with a diagnosis of schizophrenia spectrum disorder, bipolar affective disorder or unipolar depression, HES records appear to be a good indicator of a mental disorder, and can provide a diagnostic category with reasonable certainty. For these diagnoses, HES records can be an effective way of ascertaining psychiatric diagnosis.

The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background

For adults surviving stroke due to spontaneous (non-traumatic) intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) who had taken an antithrombotic (i.e. anticoagulant or antiplatelet) drug for the prevention of vaso-occlusive disease before the ICH, it is unclear whether starting antiplatelet drugs results in an increase in the risk of recurrent ICH or a beneficial net reduction of all serious vascular events compared to avoiding antiplatelet drugs.

Methods/design

The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) is an investigator-led, randomised, open, assessor-blind, parallel-group, randomised trial comparing starting versus avoiding antiplatelet drugs for adults surviving antithrombotic-associated ICH at 122 hospital sites in the United Kingdom. RESTART uses a central, web-based randomisation system using a minimisation algorithm, with 1:1 treatment allocation to which central research staff are masked. Central follow-up includes annual postal or telephone questionnaires to participants and their general (family) practitioners, with local provision of information about adverse events and outcome events. The primary outcome is recurrent symptomatic ICH. The secondary outcomes are: symptomatic haemorrhagic events; symptomatic vaso-occlusive events; symptomatic stroke of uncertain type; other fatal events; modified Rankin Scale score; adherence to antiplatelet drug(s). The magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sub-study involves the conduct of brain MRI according to a standardised imaging protocol before randomisation to investigate heterogeneity of treatment effect according to the presence of brain microbleeds. Recruitment began on 22 May 2013. The target sample size is at least 720 participants in the main trial (at least 550 in the MRI sub-study).

Discussion

Final results of RESTART will be analysed and disseminated in 2019.

Trial registration

ISRCTN71907627 (www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN71907627). Prospectively registered on 25 April 2013.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-018-2542-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Edinburgh CT and genetic diagnostic criteria for lobar intracerebral haemorrhage associated with cerebral amyloid angiopathy: model development and diagnostic test accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Identification of lobar spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage associated with cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) is important because it is associated with a higher risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage than arteriolosclerosis-associated intracerebral haemorrhage. We aimed to develop a prediction model for the identification of CAA-associated lobar intracerebral haemorrhage using CT features and genotype.

METHODS

We identified adults with first-ever intracerebral haemorrhage diagnosed by CT, who died and underwent research autopsy as part of the Lothian IntraCerebral Haemorrhage, Pathology, Imaging and Neurological Outcome (LINCHPIN) study, a prospective, population-based, inception cohort. We determined APOE genotype and radiologists rated CT imaging appearances. Radiologists were not aware of clinical, genetic, and histopathological features. A neuropathologist rated brain tissue for small vessel diseases, including CAA, and was masked to clinical, radiographic, and genetic features. We used CT and APOE genotype data in a logistic regression model, which we internally validated using bootstrapping, to predict the risk of CAA-associated lobar intracerebral haemorrhage, derive diagnostic criteria, and estimate diagnostic accuracy.

FINDINGS

Among 110 adults (median age 83 years [IQR 76-87], 49 [45%] men) included in the LINCHPIN study between June 1, 2010 and Feb 10, 2016, intracerebral haemorrhage was lobar in 62 (56%) participants, deep in 41 (37%), and infratentorial in seven (6%). Of the 62 participants with lobar intracerebral haemorrhage, 36 (58%) were associated with moderate or severe CAA compared with 26 (42%) that were associated with absent or mild CAA, and were independently associated with subarachnoid haemorrhage (32 [89%] of 36 vs 11 [42%] of 26; p=0·014), intracerebral haemorrhage with finger-like projections (14 [39%] of 36 vs 0; p=0·043), and APOE ɛ4 possession (18 [50%] of 36 vs 2 [8%] of 26; p=0·0020). A prediction model for CAA-associated lobar intracerebral haemorrhage using these three variables had excellent discrimination (c statistic 0·92, 95% CI 0·86-0·98), confirmed by internal validation. For the rule-out criteria, neither subarachnoid haemorrhage nor APOE ɛ4 possession had 100% sensitivity (95% CI 88-100). For the rule-in criteria, subarachnoid haemorrhage and either APOE ɛ4 possession or finger-like projections had 96% specificity (95% CI 78-100).

INTERPRETATION

The CT and APOE genotype prediction model for CAA-associated lobar intracerebral haemorrhage shows excellent discrimination in this cohort, but requires external validation. The Edinburgh rule-in and rule-out diagnostic criteria might inform prognostic and therapeutic decisions that depend on identification of CAA-associated lobar intracerebral haemorrhage.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, The Stroke Association, and The Wellcome Trust.