COVID-19 in Amazonas, Brazil, was driven by the persistence of endemic lineages and P.1 emergence

Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection

The chronic infection hypothesis for novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here, we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral genome copies. During the infection, we find an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately 2-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution results in the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes, suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, we track the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, providing an opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent variants.

Clinical and pharmacological factors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 in a high complexity hospital in Manaus: A retrospective study

COVID-19 is a contagious infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for more than 5 million deaths worldwide, and has been a significant challenge for healthcare systems worldwide. Characterized by multiple manifestations, the most common symptoms are fever, cough, anosmia, ageusia, and myalgia. However, several organs can be affected in more severe cases, causing encephalitis, myocarditis, respiratory distress, hypercoagulable state, pulmonary embolism, and stroke. Despite efforts to identify appropriate clinical protocols for its management, there are still no fully effective therapies to prevent patient death. The objective of this study was to describe the demographic, clinical, and pharmacotherapeutic management characteristics employed in patients hospitalized for diagnosis of COVID-19, in addition to identifying predictive factors for mortality. This is a single-center, retrospective cohort study carried out in a reference hospital belonging to the Brazilian public health system, in Manaus, from March 2020 to July 2021. Data were obtained from analyzing medical records, physical and electronic forms, medical prescriptions, and antimicrobial use authorization forms. During the study period, 530 patients were included, 51.70% male, with a mean age of 58.74 ± 15.91 years. The overall mortality rate was 23.58%. The variables age, number of comorbidities, admission to the ICU, length of stay, oxygen saturation, serum aspartate transaminase, and use of mechanical ventilation showed a positive correlation with the mortality rate. Regarding pharmacological management, 88.49% of patients used corticosteroids, 86.79% used antimicrobials, 94.15% used anticoagulant therapy, and 3.77% used immunotherapy. Interestingly, two specific classes of antibiotics showed a positive correlation with the mortality rate: penicillins and glycopeptides. After multivariate logistic regression analysis, age, number of comorbidities, need for mechanical ventilation, length of hospital stay, and penicillin or glycopeptide antibiotics use were associated with mortality (AUC = 0.958).

Molecular Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) produced diverse molecular variants during its recent expansion in humans that caused different transmissibility and severity of the associated disease as well as resistance to monoclonal antibodies and polyclonal sera, among other treatments. In order to understand the causes and consequences of the observed SARS-CoV-2 molecular diversity, a variety of recent studies investigated the molecular evolution of this virus during its expansion in humans. In general, this virus evolves with a moderate rate of evolution, in the order of 10-3-10-4 substitutions per site and per year, which presents continuous fluctuations over time. Despite its origin being frequently associated with recombination events between related coronaviruses, little evidence of recombination was detected, and it was mostly located in the spike coding region. Molecular adaptation is heterogeneous among SARS-CoV-2 genes. Although most of the genes evolved under purifying selection, several genes showed genetic signatures of diversifying selection, including a number of positively selected sites that affect proteins relevant for the virus replication. Here, we review current knowledge about the molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, including the emergence and establishment of variants of concern. We also clarify relationships between the nomenclatures of SARS-CoV-2 lineages. We conclude that the molecular evolution of this virus should be monitored over time for predicting relevant phenotypic consequences and designing future efficient treatments.

Blood leukocyte transcriptional modules and differentially expressed genes associated with disease severity and age in COVID-19 patients

Since the molecular mechanisms determining COVID-19 severity are not yet well understood, there is a demand for biomarkers derived from comparative transcriptome analyses of mild and severe cases, combined with patients' clinico-demographic and laboratory data. Here the transcriptomic response of human leukocytes to SARS-CoV-2 infection was investigated by focusing on the differences between mild and severe cases and between age subgroups (younger and older adults). Three transcriptional modules correlated with these traits were functionally characterized, as well as 23 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) associated to disease severity. One module, correlated with severe cases and older patients, had an overrepresentation of genes involved in innate immune response and in neutrophil activation, whereas two other modules, correlated with disease severity and younger patients, harbored genes involved in the innate immune response to viral infections, and in the regulation of this response. This transcriptomic mechanism could be related to the better outcome observed in younger COVID-19 patients. The DEGs, all hyper-expressed in the group of severe cases, were mostly involved in neutrophil activation and in the p53 pathway, therefore related to inflammation and lymphopenia. These biomarkers may be useful for getting a better stratification of risk factors in COVID-19.

Molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 from December 2019 to August 2022

Severe acute respiratorysyndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic spread rapidly and this scenario is concerning worldwide, presenting more than 590 million coronavirus disease 2019 cases and 6.4 million deaths. The emergence of novel lineages carrying several mutations in the spike protein has raised additional public health concerns worldwide during the pandemic. The present study review and summarizes the temporal spreading and molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 clades and variants worldwide. The evaluation of these data is important for understanding the evolutionary histories of SARSCoV-2 lineages, allowing us to identify the origins of each lineage of this virus responsible for one of the biggest pandemics in history. A total of 2897 SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences with available information from the country and sampling date (December 2019 to August 2022), were obtained and were evaluated by Bayesian approach. The results demonstrated that the SARS-CoV-2 the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) in Asia was 2019-12-26 (highest posterior density 95% [HPD95%]: 2019-12-18; 2019-12-29), in Oceania 2020-01-24 (HPD95%: 2020-01-15; 2020-01-30), in Africa 2020-02-27 (HPD95%: 2020-02-21; 2020-03-04), in Europe 2020-02-27 (HPD95%: 2020-02-20; 2020-03-06), in North America 2020-03-12 (HPD95%: 2020-03-05; 2020-03-18), and in South America 2020-03-15 (HPD95%: 2020-03-09; 2020-03-28). Between December 2019 and June 2020, 11 clades were detected (20I [Alpha] and 19A, 19B, 20B, 20C, 20A, 20D, 20E [EU1], 20F, 20H [Beta]). From July to December 2020, 4 clades were identified (20J [Gamma, V3], 21 C [Epsilon], 21D [Eta], and 21G [Lambda]). Between January and June 2021, 3 clades of the Delta variant were detected (21A, 21I, and 21J). Between July and December 2021, two variants were detected, Delta (21A, 21I, and 21J) and Omicron (21K, 21L, 22B, and 22C). Between January and June 2022, the Delta (21I and 21J) and Omicron (21K, 21L, and 22A) variants were detected. Finally, between July and August 2022, 3 clades of Omicron were detected (22B, 22C, and 22D). Clade 19A was first detected in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (Wuhan strain) with origin in 2019-12-16 (HPD95%: 2019-12-15; 2019-12-25); 20I (Alpha) in 2020-11-24 (HPD95%: 2020-11-15; 2021-12-02); 20H (Beta) in 2020-11-25 (HPD95%: 2020-11-13; 2020-11-29); 20J (Gamma) was 2020-12-21 (HPD95%: 2020-11-05; 2021-01-15); 21A (Delta) in 2020-09-20 (HPD95%: 2020-05-17; 2021-02-03); 21J (Delta) in 2021-02-26 (2020-11-02; 2021-04-24); 21M (Omicron) in 2021-01-25 (HPD95%: 2020-09-16; 2021-08-08); 21K (Omicron) in 2021-07-30 (HPD95%: 2021-05-30; 2021-10-19); 21L (Omicron) in 2021-10-03 (HPD95%: 2021-04-16; 2021-12-23); 22B (Omicron) in 2022-01-25 (HPD95%: 2022-01-10; 2022-02-05); 21L in 2021-12-20 (HPD95%: 2021-05-16; 2021-12-31). Currently, the Omicron variant predominates worldwide, with the 21L clade branching into 3 (22A, 22B, and 22C). Phylogeographic data showed that Alpha variant originated in the United Kingdom, Beta in South Africa, Gamma in Brazil, Delta in India, Omicron in South Africa, Mu in Colombia, Epsilon in the United States of America, and Lambda in Peru. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global health worldwide and the present study provides an overview of the molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineage clades (from the Wuhan strain to the currently circulating lineages of the Omicron).

Travel history among persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the United States, December 2020-February 2021

The first three SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic lineages classified as variants of concern (VOCs) in the United States (U.S.) from December 15, 2020 to February 28, 2021, Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), and Gamma (P.1) lineages, were initially detected internationally. This investigation examined available travel history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases reported in the U.S. in whom laboratory testing showed one of these initial VOCs. Travel history, demographics, and health outcomes for a convenience sample of persons infected with a SARS-CoV-2 VOC from December 15, 2020 through February 28, 2021 were provided by 35 state and city health departments, and proportion reporting travel was calculated. Of 1,761 confirmed VOC cases analyzed, 1,368 had available data on travel history. Of those with data on travel history, 1,168 (85%) reported no travel preceding laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 and only 105 (8%) reported international travel during the 30 days preceding a positive SARS-CoV-2 test or symptom onset. International travel was reported by 92/1,304 (7%) of persons infected with the Alpha variant, 7/55 (22%) with Beta, and 5/9 (56%) with Gamma. Of the first three SARS-CoV-2 lineages designated as VOCs in the U.S., international travel was common only among the few Gamma cases. Most persons infected with Alpha and Beta variant reported no travel history, therefore, community transmission of these VOCs was likely common in the U.S. by March 2021. These findings underscore the importance of global surveillance using whole genome sequencing to detect and inform mitigation strategies for emerging SARS-CoV-2 VOCs.

Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis

Background

Vaccines developed between 2020 and 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations averted by vaccination of older adults (above 60 years old) in Brazil.

Methods

We fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations of older adults as a function of vaccination coverage in this group and casualties in younger adults. We used this model in a counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with faster vaccination roll-out. We estimated the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination by computing the difference between hypothetical and realised scenarios.

Findings

We estimated that more than 165,000 individuals above 60 years of age were not hospitalised due to COVID-19 in the first seven months of the vaccination campaign. An additional contingent of 104,000 hospitalisations could have been averted if vaccination had started earlier. We also estimated that more than 58 thousand lives were saved by vaccinations in the period analysed for the same age group and that an additional 47 thousand lives could have been saved had the Brazilian government started the vaccination programme earlier.

Interpretation

Our estimates provided a lower bound for vaccination impacts in Brazil, demonstrating the importance of preventing the suffering and loss of older Brazilian adults. Once vaccines were approved, an early vaccination roll-out could have saved many more lives, especially when facing a pandemic.

Funding

The Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brazil (Finance Code 001 to F.M.D.M. and L.S.F.), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - Brazil (grant number: 315854/2020-0 to M.E.B., 141698/2018-7 to R.L.P.d.S., 313055/2020-3 to P.I.P., 311832/2017-2 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo - Brazil (contract number: 2016/01343-7 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - Brazil (grant number: E-26/201.277/2021 to L.S.B.) and Inova Fiocruz/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Brazil (grant number: 48401485034116) to L.S.B., O.G.C. and M.G.d.F.C. The funding agencies had no role in the conceptualization of the study.

Contributions of adaptation and purifying selection to SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Continued evolution and adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 has led to more transmissible and immune-evasive variants with profound impacts on the course of the pandemic. Here I analyze the evolution of the virus over 2.5 years since its emergence and estimate the rates of evolution for synonymous and non-synonymous changes separately for evolution within clades-well-defined monophyletic groups with gradual evolution-and for the pandemic overall. The rate of synonymous mutation is found to be around 6 changes per year. Synonymous rates within variants vary little from variant to variant and are compatible with the overall rate of 7 changes per year (or [Formula: see text] per year and codon). In contrast, the rate at which variants accumulate amino acid changes (non-synonymous mutations) was initially around 12-16 changes per year, but in 2021 and 2022 it dropped to 6-9 changes per year. The overall rate of non-synonymous evolution, that is across variants, is estimated to be about 26 amino acid changes per year (or [Formula: see text] per year and codon). This strong acceleration of the overall rate compared to within clade evolution indicates that the evolutionary process that gave rise to the different variants is qualitatively different from that in typical transmission chains and likely dominated by adaptive evolution. I further quantify the spectrum of mutations and purifying selection in different SARS-CoV-2 proteins and show that the massive global sampling of SARS-CoV-2 is sufficient to estimate site-specific fitness costs across the entire genome. Many accessory proteins evolve under limited evolutionary constraints with little short-term purifying selection. About half of the mutations in other proteins are strongly deleterious.

Monitoring the Establishment of VOC Gamma in Minas Gerais, Brazil: A Retrospective Epidemiological and Genomic Surveillance Study

Since its first identification in Brazil, the variant of concern (VOC) Gamma has been associated with increased infection and transmission rates, hospitalizations, and deaths. Minas Gerais (MG), the second-largest populated Brazilian state with more than 20 million inhabitants, observed a peak of cases and deaths in March-April 2021. We conducted a surveillance study in 1240 COVID-19-positive samples from 305 municipalities distributed across MG's 28 Regional Health Units (RHU) between 1 March to 27 April 2021. The most common variant was the VOC Gamma (71.2%), followed by the variant of interest (VOI) zeta (12.4%) and VOC alpha (9.6%). Although the predominance of Gamma was found in most of the RHUs, clusters of Zeta and Alpha variants were observed. One Alpha-clustered RHU has a history of high human mobility from countries with Alpha predominance. Other less frequent lineages, such as P.4, P.5, and P.7, were also identified. With our genomic characterization approach, we estimated the introduction of Gamma on 7 January 2021, at RHU Belo Horizonte. Differences in mortality between the Zeta, Gamma and Alpha variants were not observed. We reinforce the importance of vaccination programs to prevent severe cases and deaths during transmission peaks.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance in Brazil: A Systematic Review with Scientometric Analysis

Several studies have monitored the SARS-CoV-2 variants in Brazil throughout the pandemic. Here, we systematically reviewed and conducted a scientometric analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance studies using Brazilian samples. A Pubmed database search on October 2022 returned 492 articles, of which 106 were included. Ninety-six different strains were reported, with variant of concern (VOC) gamma (n = 35,398), VOC delta (n = 15,780), and the variant of interest zeta (n = 1983) being the most common. The top three states with the most samples in the published articles were São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais. Whereas the first year of the pandemic presented primary circulation of B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33 variants, consecutive replacements were observed between them and VOI zeta, VOC gamma, VOC delta, and VOC omicron. VOI mu, VOI lambda, VOC alpha, and VOC beta were also detected but failed to reach significant circulation. Co-infection, re-infection, and vaccine breakthrough reports were found. Article co-citation differed from the co-authorship structure. Despite the limitations, we expect to give an overview of Brazil's genomic surveillance studies and contribute to future research execution.

A monoclonal antibody that neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 variants, SARS-CoV, and other sarbecoviruses

The repeated emergence of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses as well as their evolving variants highlight the need to develop potent and broad-spectrum antiviral therapeutics and vaccines. By screening monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) isolated from COVID-19-convalescent patients, we found one mAb, 2-36, with cross-neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV. We solved the cryo-EM structure of 2-36 in complex with SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV spike, revealing a highly conserved epitope in the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Antibody 2-36 neutralized not only all current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and SARS-COV, but also a panel of bat and pangolin sarbecoviruses that can use human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a receptor. We selected 2-36-escape viruses in vitro and confirmed that K378 T in SARS-CoV-2 RBD led to viral resistance. Taken together, 2-36 represents a strategic reserve drug candidate for the prevention and treatment of possible diseases caused by pre-emergent SARS-related coronaviruses. Its epitope defines a promising target for the development of a pan-sarbecovirus vaccine.

Effectiveness of Whole-Virus COVID-19 Vaccine among Healthcare Personnel, Lima, Peru

In February 2021, Peru launched a COVID-19 vaccination campaign among healthcare personnel using an inactivated whole-virus vaccine. The manufacturer recommended 2 vaccine doses 21 days apart. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness among an existing multiyear influenza vaccine cohort at 2 hospitals in Lima. We analyzed data on 290 participants followed during February-May 2021. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and provided weekly self-collected nasal swab samples; samples were tested by real-time reverse transcription PCR. Median participant follow-up was 2 (range 1-11) weeks. We performed multivariable logistic regression and adjusted for preselected characteristics. During the study, 25 (9%) participants tested SARS-CoV-2-positive. We estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness at 95% (95% CI 70%-99%) among fully vaccinated participants and 100% (95% CI 88%-100%) among partially vaccinated participants. These data can inform the use and acceptance of inactivated whole-virus vaccine and support vaccination efforts in the region.

An overview of viral mutagenesis and the impact on pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Viruses are submicroscopic, obligate intracellular parasites that carry either DNA or RNA as their genome, protected by a capsid. Viruses are genetic entities that propagate by using the metabolic and biosynthetic machinery of their hosts and many of them cause sickness in the host. The ability of viruses to adapt to different hosts and settings mainly relies on their ability to create de novo variety in a short interval of time. The size and chemical composition of the viral genome have been recognized as important factors affecting the rate of mutations. Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is a novel viral disease that has quickly become one of the world's leading causes of mortality, making it one of the most serious public health problems in recent decades. The discovery of new medications to cope with Covid-19 is a difficult and time-consuming procedure, as new mutations represent a serious threat to the efficacy of recently developed vaccines. The current article discusses viral mutations and their impact on the pathogenicity of newly developed variants with a special emphasis on Covid-19. The biology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), its mutations, pathogenesis, and treatment strategies are discussed in detail along with the statistical data.

Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance

Genomic sequencing is essential to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments, vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we used sequences shared via GISAID to estimate the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times on variant detection in 189 countries. In the first two years of the pandemic, 78% of high-income countries sequenced >0.5% of their COVID-19 cases, while 42% of low- and middle-income countries reached that mark. Around 25% of the genomes from high income countries were submitted within 21 days, a pattern observed in 5% of the genomes from low- and middle-income countries. We found that sequencing around 0.5% of the cases, with a turnaround time <21 days, could provide a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. Socioeconomic inequalities undermine the global pandemic preparedness, and efforts must be made to support low- and middle-income countries improve their local sequencing capacity.

SARS-CoV-2 variants: Impact on biological and clinical outcome

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first identified in December 2019, in Wuhan, China was found to be the etiological agent for a novel respiratory infection that led to a Coronavirus Induced Disease named COVID-19. The disease spread to pandemic magnitudes within a few weeks and since then we have been dealing with several waves across the world, due to the emergence of variants and novel mutations in this RNA virus. A direct outcome of these variants apart from the spike of cases is the diverse disease presentation and difficulty in employing effective diagnostic tools apart from confusing disease outcomes. Transmissibility rates of the variants, host response, and virus evolution are some of the features found to impact COVID-19 disease management. In this review, we will discuss the emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2, notable mutations in the viral genome, the possible impact of these mutations on detection, disease presentation, and management as well as the recent findings in the mechanisms that underlie virus-host interaction. Our aim is to invigorate a scientific debate on how pathogenic potential of the new pandemic viral strains contributes toward development in the field of virology in general and COVID-19 disease in particular.

A Simplified Sanger Sequencing Method for Detection of Relevant SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Molecular surveillance of the new coronavirus through new genomic sequencing technologies revealed the circulation of important variants of SARS-CoV-2. Sanger sequencing has been useful in identifying important variants of SARS-CoV-2 without the need for whole-genome sequencing. A sequencing protocol was constructed to cover a region of 1000 base pairs, from a 1120 bp product generated after a two-step RT-PCR assay in samples positive for SARS-CoV-2. Consensus sequence construction and mutation identification were performed. Of all 103 samples sequenced, 69 contained relevant variants represented by 20 BA.1, 13 delta, 22 gamma, and 14 zeta, identified between June 2020 and February 2022. All sequences found were aligned with representative sequences of the variants. Using the Sanger sequencing methodology, we were able to develop a more accessible protocol to assist viral surveillance with a more accessible platform.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination on Reduction of Hospitalizations and Deaths in Elderly Patients in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged, vaccination has been the core strategy to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on hospitalizations and deaths in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. We analyzed data from 23,516 hospitalized COVID-19 patients diagnosed between April 2020 and August 2021. We excluded the data from patients hospitalized through direct occupancy, unknown outcomes, and unconfirmed COVID-19 cases, resulting in data from 12,635 patients cross-referenced with the immunization status during hospitalization. Our results indicated that administering at least one dose of the immunizers was sufficient to significantly reduce the occurrence of moderate and severe COVID-19 cases among patients under 59 years. Considering the partially or fully immunized patients, the mean age is similar between the analyzed groups, despite the occurrence of comorbidities and higher than that observed among not immunized patients. Thus, immunized patients present lower Unified Score for Prioritization (USP) levels when diagnosed with COVID-19. Our data suggest that COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduced the hospitalization and death of elderly patients (60+ years) after administration of at least one dose. Comorbidities do not change the mean age of moderate/severe COVID-19 cases and the days required for the hospitalization of these patients.

Emergence and Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Delta across Different Brazilian Regions

The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) Delta was first detected in India in October 2020. The first imported cases of the Delta variant in Brazil were identified in April 2021 in the southern region, followed by more cases in different regions during the following months. By early September 2021, Delta was already the dominant variant in the southeastern (87%), southern (73%), and northeastern (52%) Brazilian regions. This study aimed to understand the spatiotemporal dissemination dynamics of Delta in Brazil. To this end, we employed a combination of maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods to reconstruct the evolutionary relationship of 2,264 VOC Delta complete genomes (482 from this study) recovered across 21 of the 27 Brazilian federal units. Our phylogeographic analyses identified three major transmission clusters of Delta in Brazil. The clade BR-I (n = 1,560) arose in Rio de Janeiro in late April 2021 and was the major cluster behind the dissemination of the VOC Delta in the southeastern, northeastern, northern, and central-western regions. The AY.101 lineage (n = 207) that arose in the Paraná state in late April 2021 and aggregated the largest fraction of sampled genomes from the southern region. Lastly, the AY.46.3 lineage emerged in Brazil in the São Paulo state in early June 2021 and remained mostly restricted to this state. In the rapid turnover of viral variants characteristic of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Brazilian regions seem to occupy different stages of an increasing prevalence of the VOC Delta in their epidemic profiles. This process demands continuous genomic and epidemiological surveillance toward identifying and mitigating new introductions, limiting their dissemination, and preventing the establishment of more significant outbreaks in a population already heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. IMPORTANCE Amid the SARS-CoV-2 continuously changing epidemic profile, this study details the space-time dynamics of the emergence of the Delta lineage across Brazilian territories, pointing out its multiple introductions in the country and its most prevalent sublineages. Some of these sublineages have their emergence, alongside their genomic composition and geographic distribution, detailed here for the first time. A special focus is given to the emergence process of Delta outside the country's south and southeast regions, the most populated and subjects of most published SARS-CoV-2 studies in Brazil. In summary, the study allows a better comprehension of the evolution process of a SARS-CoV-2 lineage that would be associated with a significant recrudescence of the pandemic in Brazil.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Vaccination Model City in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

From a country with one of the highest SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and mortality rates, Brazil has implemented one of the most successful vaccination programs. Brazil's first model city vaccination program was performed by the CoronaVac vaccine (Sinovac Biotech) in the town of Serrana, São Paulo State. To evaluate the vaccination effect on the SARS-CoV-2 molecular dynamics and clinical outcomes, we performed SARS-CoV-2 molecular surveillance on 4375 complete genomes obtained between June 2020 and April 2022 in this location. This study included the period between the initial SARS-CoV-2 introduction and during the vaccination process. We observed that the SARS-CoV-2 substitution dynamics in Serrana followed the viral molecular epidemiology in Brazil, including the initial identification of the ancestral lineages (B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33) and epidemic waves of variants of concern (VOC) including the Gamma, Delta, and, more recently, Omicron. Most probably, as a result of the immunization campaign, the mortality during the Gamma and Delta VOC was significantly reduced compared to the rest of Brazil, which was also related to lower morbidity. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed the evolutionary history of the SARS-CoV-2 in this location and showed that multiple introduction events have occurred over time. The evaluation of the COVID-19 clinical outcome revealed that most cases were mild (88.9%, 98.1%, 99.1% to Gamma, Delta, and Omicron, respectively) regardless of the infecting VOC. In conclusion, we observed that vaccination was responsible for reducing the death toll rate and related COVID-19 morbidity, especially during the gamma and Delta VOC; however, it does not prevent the rapid substitution rate and morbidity of the Omicron VOC.

Sequential time-window learning with approximate Bayesian computation: an application to epidemic forecasting

The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more sophisticated mathematical techniques for analyzing epidemic data and generating reliable forecasts. In this work, we propose a framework for analyzing complex dynamical systems by dividing the data in consecutive time-windows to be separately analyzed. We fit parameters for each time-window through an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm, and the posterior distribution of parameters obtained for one window is used as the prior distribution for the next window. This Bayesian learning approach is tested with data on COVID-19 cases in multiple countries and is shown to improve ABC performance and to produce good short-term forecasting.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07865-x.

Using multiple sampling strategies to estimate SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic sequencing data

The choice of viral sequences used in genetic and epidemiological analysis is important as it can induce biases that detract from the value of these rich datasets. This raises questions about how a set of sequences should be chosen for analysis. We provide insights on these largely understudied problems using SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from Hong Kong, China, and the Amazonas State, Brazil. We consider multiple sampling schemes which were used to estimate Rt and rt as well as related R0 and date of origin parameters. We find that both Rt and rt are sensitive to changes in sampling whilst R0 and the date of origin are relatively robust. Moreover, we find that analysis using unsampled datasets result in the most biased Rt and rt estimates for both our Hong Kong and Amazonas case studies. We highlight that sampling strategy choices may be an influential yet neglected component of sequencing analysis pipelines.

A comprehensive review of BBV152 vaccine development, effectiveness, safety, challenges, and prospects

The world has responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with unprecedented speed and vigor in the mass vaccination campaigns, targeted to reduce COVID-19 severity and mortality, reduce the pressure on the healthcare system, re-open society, and reduction in disease mortality and morbidity. Here we review the preclinical and clinical development of BBV152, a whole virus inactivated vaccine and an important tool in the fight to control this pandemic. BBV152, formulated with a TLR7/8 agonist adjuvant generates a Th1-biased immune response that induces high neutralization efficacy against different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and robust long-term memory B- and T-cell responses. With seroconversion rates as high as 98.3% in vaccinated individuals, BBV152 shows 77.8% and 93.4% protection from symptomatic COVID-19 disease and severe symptomatic COVID-19 disease respectively. Studies in pediatric populations show superior immunogenicity (geometric mean titer ratio of 1.76 compared to an adult) with a seroconversion rate of >95%. The reactogenicity and safety profiles were comparable across all pediatric age groups between 2-18 yrs. as in adults. Like most approved vaccines, the BBV152 booster given 6 months after full vaccination, reverses a waning immunity, restores the neutralization efficacy, and shows synergy in a heterologous prime-boost study with about 3-fold or 300% increase in neutralization titers against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Based on the interim Phase III data, BBV152 received full authorization for adults and emergency use authorization for children from ages 6 to 18 years in India. It is also licensed for emergency use in 14 countries globally. Over 313 million vaccine doses have already been administered in India alone by April 18th, 2022.

Two Years into the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly transmissible and virulent human-infecting coronavirus that emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, causing a respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has massively impacted global public health and caused widespread disruption to daily life. The crisis caused by COVID-19 has mobilized scientists and public health authorities across the world to rapidly improve our knowledge about this devastating disease, shedding light on its management and control, and spawned the development of new countermeasures. Here we provide an overview of the state of the art of knowledge gained in the last 2 years about the virus and COVID-19, including its origin and natural reservoir hosts, viral etiology, epidemiology, modes of transmission, clinical manifestations, pathophysiology, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, emerging variants, and vaccines, highlighting important differences from previously known highly pathogenic coronaviruses. We also discuss selected key discoveries from each topic and underline the gaps of knowledge for future investigations.

Durable immunogenicity, adaptation to emerging variants, and low-dose efficacy of an AAV-based COVID-19 vaccine platform in macaques

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have devastating consequences on health and economy, even after the approval of safe and effective vaccines. Waning immunity, the emergence of variants of concern, breakthrough infections, and lack of global vaccine access and acceptance perpetuate the epidemic. Here, we demonstrate that a single injection of an adenoassociated virus (AAV)-based COVID-19 vaccine elicits at least 17-month-long neutralizing antibody responses in non-human primates at levels that were previously shown to protect from viral challenge. To improve the scalability of this durable vaccine candidate, we further optimized the vector design for greater potency at a reduced dose in mice and non-human primates. Finally, we show that the platform can be rapidly adapted to other variants of concern to robustly maintain immunogenicity and protect from challenge. In summary, we demonstrate this class of AAV can provide durable immunogenicity, provide protection at dose that is low and scalable, and be adapted readily to novel emerging vaccine antigens thus may provide a potent tool in the ongoing fight against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic approaches to understanding and combating the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Determining the transmissibility, prevalence and patterns of movement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is central to our understanding of the impact of the pandemic and to the design of effective control strategies. Phylogenies (evolutionary trees) have provided key insights into the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 and enabled investigation of individual outbreaks and transmission chains in specific settings. Phylodynamic approaches combine evolutionary, demographic and epidemiological concepts and have helped track virus genetic changes, identify emerging variants and inform public health strategy. Here, we review and synthesize studies that illustrate how phylogenetic and phylodynamic techniques were applied during the first year of the pandemic, and summarize their contributions to our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control.

Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies

Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a compartmental epidemic model fueled by real-world data of different diseases and countries. Our study confirms that massive and early vaccination is extremely effective to reduce the disease fatality if the contagion is mitigated, but the effectiveness is increasingly reduced as vaccination beginning delays in an uncontrolled epidemiological scenario. The optimal and least effective prioritization strategies depend non-linearly on epidemiological variables. Regions of the epidemiological parameter space, in which prioritizing the most vulnerable population is more effective than the most contagious individuals, depend strongly on the IFR age profile being, for example, substantially broader for COVID-19 in comparison with seasonal influenza. Demographics and social contact matrices deform the phase diagrams but do not alter their qualitative shapes.

Genomic epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil

The high numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil have made Latin America an epicentre of the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 established sustained transmission in Brazil early in the pandemic, but important gaps remain in our understanding of virus transmission dynamics at a national scale. We use 17,135 near-complete genomes sampled from 27 Brazilian states and bordering country Paraguay. From March to November 2020, we detected co-circulation of multiple viral lineages that were linked to multiple importations (predominantly from Europe). After November 2020, we detected large, local transmission clusters within the country. In the absence of effective restriction measures, the epidemic progressed, and in January 2021 there was emergence and onward spread, both within and abroad, of variants of concern and variants under monitoring, including Gamma (P.1) and Zeta (P.2). We also characterized a genomic overview of the epidemic in Paraguay and detected evidence of importation of SARS-CoV-2 ancestor lineages and variants of concern from Brazil. Our findings show that genomic surveillance in Brazil enabled assessment of the real-time spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

The origins and molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in the UK

The first SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) to be designated was lineage B.1.1.7, later labelled by the World Health Organization as Alpha. Originating in early autumn but discovered in December 2020, it spread rapidly and caused large waves of infections worldwide. The Alpha variant is notable for being defined by a long ancestral phylogenetic branch with an increased evolutionary rate, along which only two sequences have been sampled. Alpha genomes comprise a well-supported monophyletic clade within which the evolutionary rate is typical of SARS-CoV-2. The Alpha epidemic continued to grow despite the continued restrictions on social mixing across the UK and the imposition of new restrictions, in particular, the English national lockdown in November 2020. While these interventions succeeded in reducing the absolute number of cases, the impact of these non-pharmaceutical interventions was predominantly to drive the decline of the SARS-CoV-2 lineages that preceded Alpha. We investigate the only two sampled sequences that fall on the branch ancestral to Alpha. We find that one is likely to be a true intermediate sequence, providing information about the order of mutational events that led to Alpha. We explore alternate hypotheses that can explain how Alpha acquired a large number of mutations yet remained largely unobserved in a region of high genomic surveillance: an under-sampled geographical location, a non-human animal population, or a chronically infected individual. We conclude that the latter provides the best explanation of the observed behaviour and dynamics of the variant, although the individual need not be immunocompromised, as persistently infected immunocompetent hosts also display a higher within-host rate of evolution. Finally, we compare the ancestral branches and mutation profiles of other VOCs and find that Delta appears to be an outlier both in terms of the genomic locations of its defining mutations and a lack of the rapid evolutionary rate on its ancestral branch. As new variants, such as Omicron, continue to evolve (potentially through similar mechanisms), it remains important to investigate the origins of other variants to identify ways to potentially disrupt their evolution and emergence.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF AN ENZYME-LINKED IMMUNOASSAY KIT FOR DIAGNOSIS AND SURVEILLANCE OF COVID-19

There is a massive demand to identify alternative methods to detect new cases of COVID-19 as well as to investigate the epidemiology of the disease. In many countries, importation of commercial kits poses a significant impact on their testing capacity and increases the costs for the public health system. We have developed an ELISA to detect IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using a recombinant viral nucleocapsid (rN) protein expressed in E. coli. Using a total of 894 clinical samples we showed that the rN-ELISA was able to detect IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 with high sensitivity (97.5%) and specificity (96.3%) when compared to a commercial antibody test. After three external validation studies, we showed that the test accuracy was higher than 90%. The rN-ELISA IgG kit constitutes a convenient and specific method for the large-scale determination of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in human sera with high reliability.

Effectiveness of Household Disinfection Techniques to Remove SARS-CoV-2 from Cloth Masks

To assess the efficacy of washing cloth masks, we simulated SARS-CoV-2 contamination in tricoline fabric and tested decontaminants to reduce viral particles. Viral suspensions using two variants (B.1.1.28 and P.1) were inoculated in these fabrics, and the inactivation kinetics were evaluated after washing with various household disinfection products (Soap powder, Lysoform®, Hypochlorite sodium and 70% Alcohol), rinse numbers, and exposure times. Afterward, the fabrics were washed in sterile water, and viral RNA was extracted and amplified using RT-qPCR. Finally, viral replication in cell cultures was examined. Our findings show that all biocidal treatments successfully disinfected the tissue tested. Some products showed less reduction in viral loads, such as soap powder (1.60 × 104, 1.04 × 103), soap powder and Lysoform® (1.60 × 104, 1.04 × 103), and alcohol 70% (1.02 × 103, 5.91 × 101), respectively. However, when sodium hypochlorite was used, this reduction was significantly increased (viral inactivation in 100% of the washes). After the first wash, the reduction in the number of viral particles was greater for the P.1 variant than for the B.1.1.28 variant (W = 51,759, p < 0.05). In conclusion, the role of sodium hypochlorite in cloth mask disinfection may also have implications for future health emergencies as well as recommendation by WHO.

Recruiting health professionals to the COVID-19 response, Brazil

Problem

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic posed a major workforce challenge to Brazil, which has a large land area and a shortage of health workers in regions distant from the big cities.

Approach

The Brazilian health ministry implemented a computerized solution to provide rapid support to states and municipalities to hire health professionals from large urban centres to work in underserved areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. We designed an online system for health professionals to register their willingness to work on the COVID-19 response; the system was launched to the public in April 2020.

Local setting

Brazil is a large country with great heterogeneity in access to health care across its different regions. Before the initiative was launched, 5 156 020 health professionals were officially registered with professional councils. However, an estimated 3 200 000, more than 60% of them, were working in the two regions with the highest standard of living.

Relevant changes

Up to February 2022, 1 007 138 health professionals had self-registered on the system, providing a sizeable database of professionals from a range of disciplines. Of these, 371 275 professionals were willing to work on the COVID-19 response in remote areas. By 1 February 2022, 157 755 professionals have been trained and deployed to these underserved areas.

Lessons learnt

Partnership of the government with professional councils and the use of official communication channels were important strategies to improve registration and ensure the success of the scheme. We predict that the database will assist with future public health campaigns in Brazil.

Development and validation of an enzyme-linked immunoassay kit for diagnosis and surveillance of COVID-19

There is a massive demand to identify alternative methods to detect new cases of COVID-19 as well as to investigate the epidemiology of the disease. In many countries, importation of commercial kits poses a significant impact on their testing capacity and increases the costs for the public health system. We have developed an ELISA to detect IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using a recombinant viral nucleocapsid (rN) protein expressed in E. coli. Using a total of 894 clinical samples we showed that the rN-ELISA was able to detect IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 with high sensitivity (97.5%) and specificity (96.3%) when compared to a commercial antibody test. After three external validation studies, we showed that the test accuracy was higher than 90%. The rN-ELISA IgG kit constitutes a convenient and specific method for the large-scale determination of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in human sera with high reliability.

Differential neutralization and inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 variants by antibodies elicited by COVID-19 mRNA vaccines

The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the emergence of new variant lineages that have exacerbated the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of those variants were designated as variants of concern/interest (VOC/VOI) by national or international authorities based on many factors including their potential impact on vaccine-mediated protection from disease. To ascertain and rank the risk of VOCs and VOIs, we analyze the ability of 14 variants (614G, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, and Omicron) to escape from mRNA vaccine-induced antibodies. The variants show differential reductions in neutralization and replication by post-vaccination sera. Although the Omicron variant (BA.1, BA.1.1, and BA.2) shows the most escape from neutralization, sera collected after a third dose of vaccine (booster sera) retain moderate neutralizing activity against that variant. Therefore, vaccination remains an effective strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants raise concerns on immune evasion. Here, the authors evaluate the neutralization efficiency of COVID-19 mRNA vaccinee sera against representative viruses of 13 WHO-designated SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest.

Advances in COVID-19 Vaccines and New Coronavirus Variants

With the successful development of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines and increased vaccination coverage, great progress in global outbreak control has been made in several countries. However, new coronavirus variants emerge and their rapid spread, causing a new wave of economic and social upheaval worldwide. The spread of new coronavirus variants poses a new and enormous challenge to vaccination and pandemic control, so further studies to explore and develop vaccines for the prevention and control virus infection are warranted. In this review, we provide an overview of the most prevalent variants including Omicron, and explore the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against related variants to better understand existing vaccines and to facilitate improved research into new vaccines. In addition, this review discusses existing strategies to increase vaccine efficacy and introduces novel vaccines by the non-injection route.

SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and COVID-19 among 5 years-old Amazonian children and their association with poverty and food insecurity

Background

The epidemiology of childhood SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related illness remains little studied in high-transmission tropical settings, partly due to the less severe clinical manifestations typically developed by children and the limited availability of diagnostic tests. To address this knowledge gap, we investigate the prevalence and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection (either symptomatic or not) and disease in 5 years-old Amazonian children.

Methodology/Principal findings

We retrospectively estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rates and the proportion of infections leading to COVID-19-related illness among 660 participants in a population-based birth cohort study in the Juruá Valley, Amazonian Brazil. Children were physically examined, tested for SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM antibodies, and had a comprehensive health questionnaire administered during a follow-up visit at the age of 5 years carried out in January or June-July 2021. We found serological evidence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection in 297 (45.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.2–48.9%) of 660 cohort participants, but only 15 (5.1%; 95% CI, 2.9–8.2%) seropositive children had a prior medical diagnosis of COVID-19 reported by their mothers or guardians. The period prevalence of clinically apparent COVID-19, defined as the presence of specific antibodies plus one or more clinical symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 (cough, shortness of breath, and loss of taste or smell) reported by their mothers or guardians since the pandemic onset, was estimated at 7.3% (95% CI, 5.4–9.5%). Importantly, children from the poorest households and those with less educated mothers were significantly more likely to be seropositive, after controlling for potential confounders by mixed-effects multiple Poisson regression analysis. Likewise, the period prevalence of COVID-19 was 1.8-fold (95%, CI 1.2–2.6-fold) higher among cohort participants exposed to food insecurity and 3.0-fold (95% CI, 2.8–3.5-fold) higher among those born to non-White mothers. Finally, children exposed to household and family contacts who had COVID-19 were at an increased risk of being SARS-CoV-2 seropositive and–even more markedly–of having had clinically apparent COVID-19 by the age of 5 years.

Conclusions/Significance

Childhood SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-associated illness are substantially underdiagnosed and underreported in the Amazon. Children in the most socioeconomically vulnerable households are disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease.

The epidemiology of childhood COVID-19 in the tropics remains a relatively neglected research topic, in part because SARS-CoV-2 typically causes fewer severe illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths in children than in adults. Here we show that 45% of 660 participants in a birth cohort study in the Brazilian Amazon had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the age of 5 years, although only 5% of them reported previously diagnosed COVID-19 episodes–implying that as many as 8 in 9 SARS-CoV-2 infections had remained undiagnosed in these young children. Only 16% of the seropositive children had reportedly experienced cough, shortness of breath, and/or loss of taste or smell. The most socioeconomically vulnerable participants were more likely to have experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection and overt COVID-19 by the age of 5 years. Importantly, children exposed to household food insecurity, which affects 54% of our study participants, had their COVID-19 risk increased by 76%.

Detecting lineage-defining mutations in SARS-CoV-2 using colorimetric RT-LAMP without probes or additional primers

Despite the advance of vaccination worldwide, epidemic waves caused by more transmissible and immune evasive genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 have sustained the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19. Monitoring such variants is expensive, as it usually relies on whole-genome sequencing methods. Therefore, it is necessary to develop alternatives that could help identify samples from specific variants. Reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification is a method that has been increasingly used for nucleic acid amplification, as it is cheaper and easier to perform when compared to other molecular techniques. As a proof of concept that can help distinguish variants, we present an RT-LAMP assay capable of detecting samples carrying a group of mutations that can be related to specific SARS-CoV-2 lineages, here demonstrated for the Variant of Concern Gamma. We tested 60 SARS-CoV-2 RNA samples extracted from swab samples and the reaction showed a sensitivity of 93.33%, a specificity of 88.89% and a kappa value of 0.822 for samples with a Ct ≤ 22.93. The RT-LAMP assay demonstrated to be useful to distinguish VOC Gamma and may be of particular interest as a screening approach for variants in countries with poor sequencing coverage.

The Divergent Pattern of SARS-CoV-2 Variant Predominance and Transmission Dynamics in the Brazilian Island of Ilhabela

Our effort in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in Brazil has detected the Alpha Variant of Concern with a predominance higher than 75% in the population of Ilhabela island (São Paulo State) at a time when the Gamma VOC was already predominating the mainland raised concerns for closer surveillance on this island. Therefore, we intensified the surveillance for 24 weeks by generating data from 34% of local positive cases. Our data show that the patterns of VOC predominance dynamics and infection rates were in general distinct from the mainland. We report here the first known case of Alpha predominance in a Brazilian population, a delay greater than 3 months for the Gamma to dominate the previous variants compared to the mainland, and a faster dispersion rate of Gamma and Delta VOCs compared to the mainland. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Ilhabela were characterized by multiple independent introduction events of Gamma and Delta, with a few events of Alpha introduction, two of them followed by community transmission. This study evidenced the peculiar behavior of SARS-CoV-2 variants in an isolated population and brought to light the importance of specific programs for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in isolated populations.

Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection

The chronic infection hypothesis for novel SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral loads. During the infection, we found an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately two-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution led to the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, using unique molecular indexes for accurate intrahost viral sequencing, we tracked the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, ultimately providing opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent and potentially highly transmissible variants as seen with Delta and Omicron.

The Impact of the Highly Virulent SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant on Young Adults in the State of São Paulo: Was It Inevitable?

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had and is still having a tremendous impact on people all over the world, but it has been particularly harsh in South America. Nine out of 13 South American countries are among the 50 countries with the highest COVID-19 death rates. The gamma severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant that emerged by the end of 2020 in the Brazilian Amazon quickly spread throughout the country causing the harsh COVID-19 second wave. This variant displayed high viral loads, high transmissibility, and increased virulence as compared to previous variants.

Aims

The aim of this retrospective study is to revisit and analyse the epidemiology of the COVID-19 second wave in the state of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state. In addition to examining the possible factors that led to the emergence and propagation of the gamma variant, measures that could have prevented its spread and that of other highly virulent variants were also investigated.

Materials and methods

Data from São Paulo's official sources on morbidity, mortality, age distribution, and testing prior to and during the COVID-19 second wave (February - June 2021) and data regarding the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the country were parsed, analyzed, and compared to the period that anteceded the eruption of the second COVID-19 wave.

Results

In the state of São Paulo, the toll of the COVID-19 second wave surpassed that of the first 11 months of the pandemic (from March 2020 to January 2021), as 56% of the deaths occurred in the five months of the second wave between February and June 2021. The mean age of COVID-19 victims, which was already below life expectancy in the state dropped even further in the pandemic's second wave, reaching an average of 60 years of age. The years of life lost per death per month doubled and the case-fatality rate (CFR) of young adults (20-39 years old) more than trebled during this period. A number of hypotheses have been raised that might explain the emergence and spread of the gamma variant and the measures that could have been taken to prevent it and minimise its impact on the population.

Conclusions

Over 142,000 people died as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 gamma variant sweep in São Paulo in the first semester of 2021. Due to its high viral load, the gamma variant displayed high transmissibility and a high degree of virulence resulting in increased case fatality rates across most age tiers. Notably, this second wave was marked by a very significant increase in deaths among young adults. This increase was at least partially due to a deterioration in general health provoked by non-pharmaceutical interventions. In hindsight, a safer and more effective measure might have been to allow the free spread of the virus among the young and healthy in the first wave, thus conferring immunity against more virulent variants that emerged later on.

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used individual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26 July 2021 to document temporary, sweeping shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed the spread of Gamma across 14 state capitals, during which typically more than half of hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older died. We show that such extensive shocks in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed before the detection of Gamma. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we found that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates were primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We estimate that approximately half of the COVID-19 deaths in hospitals in the 14 cities could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population-wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Tracking the turnover of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs Gamma to Delta in a Brazilian state (Minas Gerais) with a high-vaccination status

The emergence and global dissemination of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) have been described as the main factor driving the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic. In Brazil, the Gamma variant dominated the epidemiological scenario during the first period of 2021. Many Brazilian regions detected the Delta variant after its first description and documented its spread. To monitor the introduction and spread of VOC Delta, we performed Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) genotyping and genome sequencing in ten regional sentinel units from June to October 2021 in the State of Minas Gerais (MG). We documented the introduction and spread of Delta, comprising 70 per cent of the cases 8 weeks later. Comparing the viral loads of the Gamma and Delta dominance periods, we provide additional evidence that the latter is more transmissible. The spread and dominance of Delta did not culminate in the increase in cases and deaths, suggesting that the vaccination may have restrained the epidemic growth. Analysis of 224 novel Delta genomes revealed that Rio de Janeiro state was the primary source for disseminating this variant in the state of MG. We present the establishment of Delta, providing evidence of its enhanced transmissibility and showing that this variant shift did not aggravate the epidemiological scenario in a high immunity setting.

Epidemiologic Profile of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Brazil During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Epidemiological Study

Background

The COVID-19 is a significant public health issue, and monitoring confirmed cases and deaths is an essential epidemiologic tool. We evaluated the features in Brazilian hospitalized patients due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We grouped the patients into the following categories: Influenza virus infection (G1), other respiratory viruses' infection (G2), other known etiologic agents (G3), SARS-CoV-2 infection (patients with COVID-19, G4), and undefined etiological agent (G5).

Methods

We performed an epidemiological study using data from DataSUS (https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/) from December 2019 to October 2021. The dataset included Brazilian hospitalized patients due to SARI. We considered the clinical evolution of the patients with SARI during the COVID-19 pandemic according to the SARI patient groups as the outcome. We performed the multivariate statistical analysis using logistic regression, and we adopted an Alpha error of 0.05.

Results

A total of 2,740,272 patients were hospitalized due to SARI in Brazil, being the São Paulo state responsible for most of the cases [802,367 (29.3%)]. Most of the patients were male (1,495,416; 54.6%), aged between 25 and 60 years (1,269,398; 46.3%), and were White (1,105,123; 49.8%). A total of 1,577,279 (68.3%) patients recovered from SARI, whereas 701,607 (30.4%) died due to SARI, and 30,551 (1.3%) did not have their deaths related to SARI. A major part of the patients was grouped in G4 (1,817,098; 66.3%) and G5 (896,207; 32.7%). The other groups account for &lt;1% of our sample [G1: 3,474 (0.1%), G2: 16,627 (0.6%), and G3: 6,866 (0.3%)]. The deaths related to SARI were more frequent in G4 (574,887; 34.7%); however, the deaths not related to SARI were more frequent among the patients categorized into the G3 (1,339; 21.3%) and G5 (25,829; 4.1%). In the multivariate analysis, the main predictors to classify the patients in the G5 when compared with G4 or G1-G4 were female sex, younger age, Black race, low educational level, rural place of residence, and the use of antiviral to treat the clinical signs. Furthermore, several features predict the risk of death by SARI, such as older age, race (Black, Indigenous, and multiracial background), low educational level, residence in a flu outbreak region, need for intensive care unit, and need for mechanical ventilatory support.

Conclusions

The possible COVID-19 underreporting (G5) might be associated with an enhanced mortality rate, more evident in distinct social groups. In addition, the patients' features are unequal between the patients' groups and can be used to determine the risk of possible COVID-19 underreporting in our population. Patients with a higher risk of death had a different epidemiological profile when compared with patients who recovered from SARI, like older age, Black, Indigenous, and multiracial background races, low educational level, residence in a flu outbreak region, need for intensive care unit and need for mechanical ventilatory support.

Molecular characteristics, immune evasion, and impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants

The persistent COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 has brought an enormous public health burden to the global society and is accompanied by various evolution of the virus genome. The consistently emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants harboring critical mutations impact the molecular characteristics of viral proteins and display heterogeneous behaviors in immune evasion, transmissibility, and the clinical manifestation during infection, which differ each strain and endow them with distinguished features during populational spread. Several SARS-CoV-2 variants, identified as Variants of Concern (VOC) by the World Health Organization, challenged global efforts on COVID-19 control due to the rapid worldwide spread and enhanced immune evasion from current antibodies and vaccines. Moreover, the recent Omicron variant even exacerbated the global anxiety in the continuous pandemic. Its significant evasion from current medical treatment and disease control even highlights the necessity of combinatory investigation of the mutational pattern and influence of the mutations on viral dynamics against populational immunity, which would greatly facilitate drug and vaccine development and benefit the global public health policymaking. Hence in this review, we summarized the molecular characteristics, immune evasion, and impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 variants and focused on the parallel comparison of different variants in mutational profile, transmissibility and tropism alteration, treatment effectiveness, and clinical manifestations, in order to provide a comprehensive landscape for SARS-CoV-2 variant research.

Safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma for severe COVID-19: a randomized, single blinded, parallel, controlled clinical study

Background

Convalescent plasma (CP) has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under study. However, the variability in the current clinical trials has averted its wide use in the current pandemic. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of CP in severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the early stages of the disease.

Methods

A randomized controlled clinical study was conducted on 101 patients admitted to the hospital with confirmed severe COVID-19. Most participants had less than 14 days from symptoms onset and less than seven days from hospitalization. Fifty patients were assigned to receive CP plus standard therapy (ST), and 51 were assigned to receive ST alone. Participants in the CP arm received two doses of 250 mL each, transfused 24 h apart. All transfused plasma was obtained from "super donors" that fulfilled the following criteria: titers of anti-SARS-CoV-2 S1 IgG ≥ 1:3200 and IgA ≥ 1:800 antibodies. The effect of transfused anti-IFN antibodies and the SARS-CoV-2 variants at the entry of the study on the overall CP efficacy was evaluated. The primary outcomes were the reduction in viral load and the increase in IgG and IgA antibodies at 28 days of follow-up. The per-protocol analysis included 91 patients.

Results

An early but transient increase in IgG anti-S1-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels at day 4 post-transfusion was observed (Estimated difference [ED], − 1.36; 95% CI, − 2.33 to − 0.39; P = 0.04). However, CP was not associated with viral load reduction in any of the points evaluated. Analysis of secondary outcomes revealed that those patients in the CP arm disclosed a shorter time to discharge (ED adjusted for mortality, 3.1 days; 95% CI, 0.20 to 5.94; P = 0.0361) or a reduction of 2 points on the WHO scale when compared with the ST group (HR adjusted for mortality, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.5; P = 0.0376). There were no benefits from CP on the rates of intensive care unit admission (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.9; P = 0.6399), mechanical ventilation (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.25 to 1.7; P = 0.4039), or mortality (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 0.64 to 16; P = 0.1584). Anti-IFN antibodies and SARS-CoV-2 variants did not influence these results.

Conclusion

CP was not associated with viral load reduction, despite the early increase in IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. However, CP is safe and could be a therapeutic option to reduce the hospital length of stay.

Trial registration NCT04332835

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07560-7.

Recapping the Features of SARS-CoV-2 and Its Main Variants: Status and Future Paths

Over the two years that we have been experiencing the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, our challenges have been the race to develop vaccines and the difficulties in fighting against new variants due to the rapid ability of the virus to evolve. In this sense, different organizations have identified and classified the different variants that have been emerging, distinguishing between variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), or variants under monitoring (VUM). The following review aims to describe the latest updates focusing on VOC and already de-escalated variants, as well as to describe the impact these have had on the global situation. Understanding the intrinsic properties of SARS-CoV-2 and its interaction with the immune system and vaccination is essential to make out the underlying mechanisms that have led to the appearance of these variants, helping to determine the next steps for better public management of this pandemic.

Early Emergence and Dispersal of Delta SARS-CoV-2 Lineage AY.99.2 in Brazil

The year of 2021 was marked by the emergence and dispersal of a number of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, resulting in the “third wave” of COVID-19 in several countries despite the level of vaccine coverage. Soon after the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the Delta variant in Brazil, at least seven Delta sub-lineages emerged, including the globally spread AY.101 and AY.99.2. In this study we performed a detailed analysis of the COVID-19 scenario in Brazil from April to December 2021 by using data collected by the largest private medical diagnostic company in Latin America (Dasa), and SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences generated by its SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance project (GENOV). For phylogenetic and Bayesian analysis, SARS-CoV-2 genomes available at GISAID public database were also retrieved. We confirmed that the Brazilian AY.99.2 and AY.101 were the most prevalent lineages during this period, overpassing the Gamma variant in July/August. We also estimated that AY.99.2 likely emerged a few weeks after the entry of the B.1.617.2 in the country, at some point between late April and May and rapidly spread to other countries. Despite no increased fitness described for the AY.99.2 lineage, a rapid shift in the composition of Delta SARS-CoV-2 lineages prevalence in Brazil took place. Understanding the reasons leading the AY.99.2 to become the dominant lineage in the country is important to understand the process of lineage competitions that may inform future control measures.

Epidemiological characterization of SARS-CoV-2 variants in children over the four COVID-19 waves and correlation with clinical presentation

Since the start of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, children aged ≤ 12 years have always been defined as underrepresented in terms of SARS-CoV-2 infections' frequency and severity. By correlating SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics with clinical and virological features in 612 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients aged ≤ 12 years, we demonstrated a sizeable circulation of different SARS-CoV-2 lineages over the four pandemic waves in paediatric population, sustained by local transmission chains. Age < 5 years, highest viral load, gamma and delta clades positively influence this local transmission. No correlations between COVID-19 manifestations and lineages or transmission chains are seen, except for a negative correlation between B.1.1.7 and hospitalization.

Rapid Emergence and Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Gamma (P.1) Variant in Haiti

After an initial wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Haiti in summer 2020 (primarily lineage B.1), seropositivity for anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G (IgG) was ~40%. Variant P.1 (gamma) was introduced in February 2021, with an initially limited introduction followed by exponential local dissemination within this unvaccinated population with prior exposure to earlier SARS-CoV-2 lineages.