Polygenic Risk Score Task Force of the International Common Disease Alliance. Responsible use of polygenic risk scores in the clinic: potential benefits, risks and gaps

Establishment and analysis of a novel diagnostic model for systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis based on machine learning

BACKGROUND

Systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SJIA) is a form of childhood arthritis with clinical features such as fever, lymphadenopathy, arthritis, rash, and serositis. It seriously affects the growth and development of children and has a high rate of disability and mortality. SJIA may result from genetic, infectious, or autoimmune factors since the precise source of the disease is unknown. Our study aims to develop a genetic-based diagnostic model to explore the identification of SJIA at the genetic level.

METHODS

The gene expression dataset of peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples from SJIA was collected from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Then, three GEO datasets (GSE11907-GPL96, GSE8650-GPL96 and GSE13501) were merged and used as a training dataset, which included 125 SJIA samples and 92 health samples. GSE7753 was used as a validation dataset. The limma method was used to screen differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Feature selection was performed using Lasso, random forest (RF)-recursive feature elimination (RFE) and RF classifier.

RESULTS

We finally identified 4 key genes (ALDH1A1, CEACAM1, YBX3 and SLC6A8) that were essential to distinguish SJIA from healthy samples. And we combined the 4 key genes and performed a grid search as well as 10-fold cross-validation with 5 repetitions to finally identify the RF model with optimal mtry. The mean area under the curve (AUC) value for 5-fold cross-validation was greater than 0.95. The model's performance was then assessed once more using the validation dataset, and an AUC value of 0.990 was obtained. All of the above AUC values demonstrated the strong robustness of the SJIA diagnostic model.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully developed a new SJIA diagnostic model that can be used for a novel aid in the identification of SJIA. In addition, the identification of 4 key genes that may serve as potential biomarkers for SJIA provides new insights to further understand the mechanisms of SJIA.

Multi-ancestry genetic analysis of gene regulation in coronary arteries prioritizes disease risk loci

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified hundreds of risk loci for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, non-European populations are underrepresented in GWASs, and the causal gene-regulatory mechanisms of these risk loci during atherosclerosis remain unclear. We incorporated local ancestry and haplotypes to identify quantitative trait loci for expression (eQTLs) and splicing (sQTLs) in coronary arteries from 138 ancestrally diverse Americans. Of 2,132 eQTL-associated genes (eGenes), 47% were previously unreported in coronary artery; 19% exhibited cell-type-specific expression. Colocalization revealed subgroups of eGenes unique to CAD and blood pressure GWAS. Fine-mapping highlighted additional eGenes, including TBX20 and IL5. We also identified sQTLs for 1,690 genes, among which TOR1AIP1 and ULK3 sQTLs demonstrated the importance of evaluating splicing to accurately identify disease-relevant isoform expression. Our work provides a patient-derived coronary artery eQTL resource and exemplifies the need for diverse study populations and multifaceted approaches to characterize gene regulation in disease processes.

Associations of combined polygenic risk score and glycemic status with atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether high hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is associated with increases in the risk of cardiovascular disease among individuals with elevated genetic susceptibility. We aimed to investigate the association between HbA1c and atrial fibrillation (AF), coronary artery disease (CAD), and ischemic stroke according to the polygenic risk score (PRS).

METHODS

The UK Biobank cohort included 502,442 participants aged 40-70 years who were recruited from 22 assessment centers across the United Kingdom from 2006 to 2010. This study included 305,605 unrelated individuals with available PRS and assessed new-onset AF, CAD, and ischemic stroke. The participants were divided into tertiles based on the validated PRS for each outcome. Within each PRS tertiles, the risks of incident events associated with HbA1c levels were investigated and compared with HbA1c < 5.7% and low PRS. Data were analyzed from November 2022 to May 2023.

RESULTS

Of 305,605 individuals, 161,605 (52.9%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 56.6 (8.1) years. During a median follow-up of 11.9 (interquartile range 11.1-12.6) years, the incidences of AF, CAD, and ischemic stroke were 4.6, 2.9 and 1.1 per 100 person-years, respectively. Compared to individuals with HbA1c < 5.7% and low PRS, individuals with HbA1c ≥ 6.5% and high PRS had a 2.67-times higher risk for AF (hazard ratio [HR], 2.67; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.43-2.94), 5.71-times higher risk for CAD (HR, 5.71; 95% CI, 5.14-6.33) and 2.94-times higher risk for ischemic stroke (HR, 2.94; 95% CI, 2.47-3.50). In the restricted cubic spline models, while a U-shaped trend was observed between HbA1c and the risk of AF, dose-dependent increases were observed between HbA1c and the risk of CAD and ischemic stroke regardless PRS tertile.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the nature of the dose-dependent relationship between HbA1c levels and cardiovascular disease in individuals with different PRS is outcome-specific. This adds to the evidence that PRS may play a role together with glycemic status in the development of cardiovascular disease.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Bioinformatic platforms for clinical stratification of natural history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases

Although bioinformatic methods gained a lot of attention in the latest years, their use in real-world studies for primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD) is still lacking. Bioinformatic resources have been applied to thousands of individuals from the Framingham Heart Study as well as health care-associated biobanks such as the UK Biobank, the Million Veteran Program, and the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium and randomized controlled trials (i.e. ODYSSEY, FOURIER, ASPREE, and PREDIMED). These studies contributed to the development of polygenic risk scores (PRS), which emerged as novel potent genetic-oriented tools, able to calculate the individual risk of ASCVD and to predict the individual response to therapies such as statins and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor. ASCVD are the first cause of death around the world including coronary heart disease (CHD), peripheral artery disease, and stroke. To achieve the goal of precision medicine and personalized therapy, advanced bioinformatic platforms are set to link clinically useful indices to heterogeneous molecular data, mainly epigenomics, transcriptomics, metabolomics, and proteomics. The DIANA study found that differential methylation of ABCA1, TCF7, PDGFA, and PRKCZ significantly discriminated patients with acute coronary syndrome from healthy subjects and their expression levels positively associated with CK-MB serum concentrations. The ARIC Study revealed several plasma proteins, acting or not in lipid metabolism, with a potential role in determining the different pleiotropic effects of statins in each subject. The implementation of molecular high-throughput studies and bioinformatic techniques into traditional cardiovascular risk prediction scores is emerging as a more accurate practice to stratify patients earlier in life and to favour timely and tailored risk reduction strategies. Of note, radiogenomics aims to combine imaging features extracted for instance by coronary computed tomography angiography and molecular biomarkers to create CHD diagnostic algorithms useful to characterize atherosclerotic lesions and myocardial abnormalities. The current view is that such platforms could be of clinical value for prevention, risk stratification, and treatment of ASCVD.

Using twin-pairs to assess potential bias in polygenic prediction of externalising behaviours across development

Prediction from polygenic scores may be confounded sources of passive gene-environment correlation (rGE; e.g. population stratification, assortative mating, and environmentally mediated effects of parental genotype on child phenotype). Using genomic data from 10,000 twin pairs, we asked whether polygenic scores from the recent externalising genome-wide association study predicted conduct problems, ADHD symptomology and callous-unemotional traits, and whether these predictions are biased by rGE. We ran regression models including within-family and between-family polygenic scores, to separate the direct genetic influence on a trait from environmental influences that correlate with genes (indirect genetic effects). Findings suggested that this externalising polygenic score is a good index of direct genetic influence on conduct and ADHD-related symptoms across development, with minimal bias from rGE, although the polygenic score predicted less variance in CU traits. Post-hoc analyses showed some indirect genetic effects acting on a common factor indexing stability of conduct problems across time and contexts.

The future of commercial genetic testing

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

There are thousands of different clinical genetic tests currently available. Genetic testing and its applications continue to change rapidly for multiple reasons. These reasons include technological advances, accruing evidence about the impact and effects of testing, and many complex financial and regulatory factors.

RECENT FINDINGS

This article considers a number of key issues and axes related to the current and future state of clinical genetic testing, including targeted versus broad testing, simple/Mendelian versus polygenic and multifactorial testing models, genetic testing for individuals with high suspicion of genetic conditions versus ascertainment through population screening, the rise of artificial intelligence in multiple aspects of the genetic testing process, and how developments such as rapid genetic testing and the growing availability of new therapies for genetic conditions may affect the field.

SUMMARY

Genetic testing is expanding and evolving, including into new clinical applications. Developments in the field of genetics will likely result in genetic testing becoming increasingly in the purview of a very broad range of clinicians, including general paediatricians as well as paediatric subspecialists.

Advancements in the Genetics of Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is a significant cause of acute myocardial infarction that is increasingly recognized in young and middle-aged women. The etiology of SCAD is likely multifactorial and may include the interaction of environmental and individual factors. Here, we summarize the current understanding of the genetic factors contributing to the development of SCAD.

RECENT FINDINGS

The molecular findings underlying SCAD have been demonstrated to include a combination of rare DNA sequence variants with large effects, common variants contributing to a complex genetic architecture, and variants with intermediate impact. The genes associated with SCAD highlight the role of arterial cells and their extracellular matrix in the pathogenesis of the disease and shed light on the relationship between SCAD and other disorders, including fibromuscular dysplasia and connective tissue diseases. While up to 10% of affected individuals may harbor a rare variant with large effect, SCAD most often presents as a complex genetic condition. Analyses of larger and more diverse cohorts will continue to improve our understanding of risk susceptibility loci and will also enable consideration of the clinical utility of genetic testing strategies in the management of SCAD.

Navigating the uncertainty of precision cancer screening: The role of shared decision-making

Objective

Describe how applying a shared decision making (SDM) lens to the implementation of new technologies can improve patient-centeredness.

Methods

This paper argues that the emergence of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for cancer screening presents an illustrative opportunity to include SDM when novel technologies enter clinical care.

Results

PRS are novel tools that indicate an individual's genetic risk of a given disease relative to the population. PRS are anticipated to help identify individuals most and least likely to benefit from screening. However, PRS have several types of uncertainty, including validity across populations, disparate computational methods, and inclusion of different genomic data across laboratories.

Conclusion

Implementing SDM alongside new technologies could prove useful for their ethical and patient-centered utilization. SDM's importance as an approach to decision-making will not diminish, as evidence, uncertainty, and patient values will remain intrinsic to the art and science of clinical care.

Innovation

SDM can help providers and patients navigate the considerable uncertainty inherent in implementing new technologies, enabling decision-making based on existing evidence and patient values.

Evaluation of optimal methods and ancestries for calculating polygenic risk scores in East Asian population

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been studied for predicting human diseases, and various methods for PRS calculation have been developed. Most PRS studies to date have focused on European ancestry, and the performance of PRS has not been sufficiently assessed in East Asia. Herein, we evaluated the predictive performance of PRSs for East Asian populations under various conditions. Simulation studies using data from the Korean cohort, Health Examinees (HEXA), demonstrated that SBayesRC and PRS-CS outperformed other PRS methods (lassosum, LDpred-funct, and PRSice) in high fixed heritability (0.3 and 0.7). In addition, we generated PRSs using real-world data from HEXA for ten diseases: asthma, breast cancer, cataract, coronary artery disease, gastric cancer, glaucoma, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, osteoporosis, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We utilized the five previous PRS methods and genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from two biobank-scale datasets [European (UK Biobank) and East Asian (BioBank Japan) ancestry]. Additionally, we employed PRS-CSx, a PRS method that combines GWAS data from both ancestries, to generate a total of 110 PRS for ten diseases. Similar to the simulation results, SBayesRC showed better predictive performance for disease risk than the other methods. Furthermore, the East Asian GWAS data outperformed those from European ancestry for breast cancer, cataract, gastric cancer, and T2D, but neither of the two GWAS ancestries showed a significant advantage on PRS performance for the remaining six diseases. Based on simulation data and real data studies, it is expected that SBayesRC will offer superior performance for East Asian populations, and PRS generated using GWAS from non-East Asian may also yield good results.

Pragmatic Approach to Applying Polygenic Risk Scores to Diverse Populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate genetic susceptibility of an individual to disease and have the potential of providing utility in multiple clinical contexts. However, their performance, computation, and reporting in diverse populations remain challenging. Here, we present a pragmatic approach to optimize a PRS for a population of interest that leverages publicly available data and methods and consists of seven steps that are easily implemented without the requirement of expertise in complex genetics: step 1, selecting source genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and imputation; step 2, selecting methods to compute polygenic score; step 3, adjusting scores using principal components of genetic ancestry; step 4, selecting the best performing score; step 5, defining percentiles of a population distribution; step 6, validating performance of the optimized polygenic score; and step 7, implementing the optimized polygenic score in clinical practice. © 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism in the UK Biobank cohort study

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend thromboprophylaxis for patients with cancer at high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Polygenic risk scores may improve VTE prediction but have not yet been evaluated in patients with cancer.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the performance of the 5-, 37-, 297-, extended 297- (additionally including factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A), and 100-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) scores in predicting cancer-associated VTE in the UK Biobank, a population-based, prospective cohort study.

METHODS

The primary outcome was VTE during 12 months after cancer diagnosis. Cancer and VTE diagnosis were based on ICD-10 codes. Discrimination was evaluated by c-indices and subdistribution hazard ratios in the upper vs 3 lower quartiles of the scores in a competing risk model. As a comparison, the c-index was calculated for the Khorana cancer type risk classification.

RESULTS

Of 36 150 patients with cancer (median age, 66 years; 48.7% females), 1018 (2.8%) developed VTE. C-indices at 12 months ranged from 0.56 (95% CI, 0.54-0.58) for the 5-SNP to 0.60 (95% CI, 0.58-0.62) for the extended 297-SNP scores. The subdistribution hazard ratios ranged from 1.36 (95% CI, 1.19-1.56) for the 5-SNP to 1.90 (95% CI, 1.68-2.16) for the extended 297-SNP scores and were consistent after adjusting for cancer type. For the Khorana cancer type classification, the c-index was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.58-0.61), which increased to 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67, +0.05; 95% CI, 0.04-0.07) when combined with the extended 297-SNP score.

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate that polygenic VTE risk scores can identify patients with cancer with a 1.9-fold higher VTE risk independent of cancer type. Combined clinical-genetic scores to improve cancer-associated VTE prediction should be evaluated further.

Impact of selection bias on polygenic risk score estimates in healthcare settings

BACKGROUND

Hospital-based biobanks are being increasingly considered as a resource for translating polygenic risk scores (PRS) into clinical practice. However, since these biobanks originate from patient populations, there is a possibility of bias in polygenic risk estimation due to overrepresentation of patients with higher frequency of healthcare interactions.

METHODS

PRS for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and depression were calculated using summary statistics from the largest available genomic studies for a sample of 24 153 European ancestry participants in the Mass General Brigham (MGB) Biobank. To correct for selection bias, we fitted logistic regression models with inverse probability (IP) weights, which were estimated using 1839 sociodemographic, clinical, and healthcare utilization features extracted from electronic health records of 1 546 440 non-Hispanic White patients eligible to participate in the Biobank study at their first visit to the MGB-affiliated hospitals.

RESULTS

Case prevalence of bipolar disorder among participants in the top decile of bipolar disorder PRS was 10.0% (95% CI 8.8-11.2%) in the unweighted analysis but only 6.2% (5.0-7.5%) when selection bias was accounted for using IP weights. Similarly, case prevalence of depression among those in the top decile of depression PRS was reduced from 33.5% (31.7-35.4%) to 28.9% (25.8-31.9%) after IP weighting.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-random selection of participants into volunteer biobanks may induce clinically relevant selection bias that could impact implementation of PRS in research and clinical settings. As efforts to integrate PRS in medical practice expand, recognition and mitigation of these biases should be considered and may need to be optimized in a context-specific manner.

Polygenic risk scores for disease risk prediction in Africa: current challenges and future directions

Early identification of genetic risk factors for complex diseases can enable timely interventions and prevent serious outcomes, including mortality. While the genetics underlying many Mendelian diseases have been elucidated, it is harder to predict risk for complex diseases arising from the combined effects of many genetic variants with smaller individual effects on disease aetiology. Polygenic risk scores (PRS), which combine multiple contributing variants to predict disease risk, have the potential to influence the implementation for precision medicine. However, the majority of existing PRS were developed from European data with limited transferability to African populations. Notably, African populations have diverse genetic backgrounds, and a genomic architecture with smaller haplotype blocks compared to European genomes. Subsequently, growing evidence shows that using large-scale African ancestry cohorts as discovery for PRS development may generate more generalizable findings. Here, we (1) discuss the factors contributing to the poor transferability of PRS in African populations, (2) showcase the novel Africa genomic datasets for PRS development, (3) explore the potential clinical utility of PRS in African populations, and (4) provide insight into the future of PRS in Africa.

Clinical utility of polygenic scores for cardiometabolic disease in Arabs

Arabs account for 5% of the world population and have a high burden of cardiometabolic disease, yet clinical utility of polygenic risk prediction in Arabs remains understudied. Among 5399 Arab patients, we optimize polygenic scores for 10 cardiometabolic traits, achieving a performance that is better than published scores and on par with performance in European-ancestry individuals. Odds ratio per standard deviation (OR per SD) for a type 2 diabetes score was 1.83 (95% CI 1.74-1.92), and each SD of body mass index (BMI) score was associated with 1.18 kg/m2 difference in BMI. Polygenic scores associated with disease independent of conventional risk factors, and also associated with disease severity-OR per SD for coronary artery disease (CAD) was 1.78 (95% CI 1.66-1.90) for three-vessel CAD and 1.41 (95% CI 1.29-1.53) for one-vessel CAD. We propose a pragmatic framework leveraging public data as one way to advance equitable clinical implementation of polygenic scores in non-European populations.

Performance of polygenic risk scores in screening, prediction, and risk stratification: secondary analysis of data in the Polygenic Score Catalog

Objective

To clarify the performance of polygenic risk scores in population screening, individual risk prediction, and population risk stratification.

Design

Secondary analysis of data in the Polygenic Score Catalog.

Setting

Polygenic Score Catalog, April 2022. Secondary analysis of 3915 performance metric estimates for 926 polygenic risk scores for 310 diseases to generate estimates of performance in population screening, individual risk, and population risk stratification.

Participants

Individuals contributing to the published studies in the Polygenic Score Catalog.

Main outcome measures

Detection rate for a 5% false positive rate (DR5) and the population odds of becoming affected given a positive result; individual odds of becoming affected for a person with a particular polygenic score; and odds of becoming affected for groups of individuals in different portions of a polygenic risk score distribution. Coronary artery disease and breast cancer were used as illustrative examples.

Results

For performance in population screening, median DR5 for all polygenic risk scores and all diseases studied was 11% (interquartile range 8-18%). Median DR5 was 12% (9-19%) for polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and 10% (9-12%) for breast cancer. The population odds of becoming affected given a positive results were 1:8 for coronary artery disease and 1:21 for breast cancer, with background 10 year odds of 1:19 and 1:41, respectively, which are typical for these diseases at age 50. For individual risk prediction, the corresponding 10 year odds of becoming affected for individuals aged 50 with a polygenic risk score at the 2.5th, 25th, 75th, and 97.5th centiles were 1:54, 1:29, 1:15, and 1:8 for coronary artery disease and 1:91, 1:56, 1:34, and 1:21 for breast cancer. In terms of population risk stratification, at age 50, the risk of coronary artery disease was divided into five groups, with 10 year odds of 1:41 and 1:11 for the lowest and highest quintile groups, respectively. The 10 year odds was 1:7 for the upper 2.5% of the polygenic risk score distribution for coronary artery disease, a group that contributed 7% of cases. The corresponding estimates for breast cancer were 1:72 and 1:26 for the lowest and highest quintile groups, and 1:19 for the upper 2.5% of the distribution, which contributed 6% of cases.

Conclusion

Polygenic risk scores performed poorly in population screening, individual risk prediction, and population risk stratification. Strong claims about the effect of polygenic risk scores on healthcare seem to be disproportionate to their performance.

Transforming global approaches to chronic disease prevention and management across the lifespan: integrating genomics, behavior change, and digital health solutions

Chronic illnesses are a major threat to global population health through the lifespan into older age. Despite world-wide public health goals, there has been a steady increase in chronic and non-communicable diseases (e.g., cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic disorders) and strong growth in mental health disorders. In 2010, 67% of deaths worldwide were due to chronic diseases and this increased to 74% in 2019, with accelerated growth in the COVID-19 era and its aftermath. Aging and wellbeing across the lifespan are positively impacted by the presence of effective prevention and management of chronic illness that can enhance population health. This paper provides a short overview of the journey to this current situation followed by discussion of how we may better address what the World Health Organization has termed the "tsunami of chronic diseases." In this paper we advocate for the development, validation, and subsequent deployment of integrated: 1. Polygenic and multifactorial risk prediction tools to screen for those at future risk of chronic disease and those with undiagnosed chronic disease. 2. Advanced preventive, behavior change and chronic disease management to maximize population health and wellbeing. 3. Digital health systems to support greater efficiencies in population-scale health prevention and intervention programs. It is argued that each of these actions individually has an emerging evidence base. However, there has been limited research to date concerning the combined population-level health effects of their integration. We outline the conceptual framework within which we are planning and currently conducting studies to investigate the effects of their integration.

The neuronal chromatin landscape in adult schizophrenia brains is linked to early fetal development

Non-coding variants increase risk of neuropsychiatric disease. However, our understanding of the cell-type specific role of the non-coding genome in disease is incomplete. We performed population scale (N=1,393) chromatin accessibility profiling of neurons and non-neurons from two neocortical brain regions: the anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Across both regions, we observed notable differences in neuronal chromatin accessibility between schizophrenia cases and controls. A per-sample disease pseudotime was positively associated with genetic liability for schizophrenia. Organizing chromatin into cis- and trans-regulatory domains, identified a prominent neuronal trans-regulatory domain (TRD1) active in immature glutamatergic neurons during fetal development. Polygenic risk score analysis using genetic variants within chromatin accessibility of TRD1 successfully predicted susceptibility to schizophrenia in the Million Veteran Program cohort. Overall, we present the most extensive resource to date of chromatin accessibility in the human cortex, yielding insights into the cell-type specific etiology of schizophrenia.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

The role of polygenic risk scores in breast cancer risk perception and decision-making

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have the potential to improve the accuracy of clinical risk assessments, yet questions about their clinical validity and readiness for clinical implementation persist. Understanding how individuals integrate and act on the information provided by PRS is critical for their effective integration into routine clinical care, yet few studies have examined how individuals respond to the receipt of polygenic risk information. We conducted an embedded Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications (ELSI) study to examine if and how unaffected participants in a US population breast cancer screening trial understood and utilized PRS, as part of a multifactorial risk score combining traditional risk factors with a genetic risk assessment, to make screening and risk-reduction decisions. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 24 trial participants who were designated at elevated risk for breast cancer due to their combined risk score. Interviews were analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Participants understood PRS conceptually and accepted it as one of many risk factors to consider, yet the value and meaning they ascribed to this risk estimate varied. Most participants reported financial and insurance barriers to enhanced screening with MRI and were not interested in taking risk-reducing medications. These findings contribute to our understanding of how PRS may be best translated from research to clinical care. Furthermore, they illuminate ethical concerns about identifying risk and making recommendations based on polygenic risk in a population screening context where many may have trouble accessing appropriate care.

What makes a good life: using theatrical performance to enhance communication about polygenic risk scores research in patient and public involvement

The aim of this patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) work was to explore improvised theatre as a tool for facilitating bi-directional dialogue between researchers and patients/members of the public on the topic of polygenic risk scores (PRS) use within primary or secondary care. PRS are a tool to quantify genetic risk for a heritable disease or trait and may be used to predict future health outcomes. In the United Kingdom (UK), they are often cited as a next-in-line public health tool to be implemented, and their use in consumer genetic testing as well as patient-facing settings is increasing. Despite their potential clinical utility, broader themes about how they might influence an individual's perception of disease risk and decision-making are an active area of research; however, this has mostly been in the setting of return of results to patients. We worked with a youth theatre group and patients involved in a PPIE group to develop two short plays about public perceptions of genetic risk information that could be captured by PRS. These plays were shared in a workshop with patients/members of the public to facilitate discussions about PRS and their perceived benefits, concerns and emotional reactions. Discussions with both performers and patients/public raised three key questions: (1) can the data be trusted?; (2) does knowing genetic risk actually help the patient?; and (3) what makes a life worthwhile? Creating and watching fictional narratives helped all participants explore the potential use of PRS in a clinical setting, informing future research considerations and improving communication between the researchers and lay members of the PPIE group.

Ethical, legal, and social implications of genetic risk prediction for multifactorial disease: a narrative review identifying concerns about interpretation and use of polygenic scores

Advances in genomics have enabled the development of polygenic scores (PGS), sometimes called polygenic risk scores, in the context of multifactorial diseases and disorders such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, and schizophrenia. PGS estimate an individual's genetic predisposition, as compared to other members of a population, for conditions which are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. There is significant interest in using genetic risk prediction afforded through PGS in public health, clinical care, and research settings, yet many acknowledge the need to thoughtfully consider and address ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI). To contribute to this effort, this paper reports on a narrative review of the literature, with the aim of identifying and categorizing ELSI relating to genetic risk prediction in the context of multifactorial disease, which have been raised by scholars in the field. Ninety-two articles, spanning from 1977 to 2021, met the inclusion criteria for this study. Identified ELSI included potential benefits, challenges and risks that focused on concerns about interpretation and use, and ethical obligations to maximize benefits, minimize risks, promote justice, and support autonomy. This research will support geneticists, clinicians, genetic counselors, patients, patient advocates, and policymakers in recognizing and addressing ethical concerns associated with PGS; it will also guide future empirical and normative research.

Early breast cancer risk detection: a novel framework leveraging polygenic risk scores and machine learning

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death in women; an estimated one in eight women in the USA will develop BC during her lifetime. However, current methods of BC screening, including clinical breast exams, mammograms, biopsies and others, are often underused due to limited access, expense and a lack of risk awareness, causing 30% (up to 80% in low-income and middle-income countries) of patients with BC to miss the precious early detection phase.

METHODS

This study creates a key step to supplement the current BC diagnostic pipeline: a prescreening platform, prior to traditional detection and diagnostic steps. We have developed BREast CAncer Risk Detection Application (BRECARDA), a novel framework that personalises BC risk assessment using artificial intelligence neural networks to incorporate relevant genetic and non-genetic risk factors. A polygenic risk score (PRS) was enhanced by employing AnnoPred and validated by fivefolds cross-validation, outperforming three existing state-of-the-art PRS methods.

RESULTS

We used data from 97 597 female participants of the UK BioBank to train our algorithm. Using the enhanced PRS thus trained together with non-genetic information, BRECARDA was evaluated in a testing dataset with 48 074 UK Biobank female participants and achieved a high accuracy of 94.28% and area under the curve of 0.7861. Our optimised AnnoPred outperformed other state-of-the-art methods on quantifying genetic risk, indicating its potential for supplementing the current BC detection tests, population screening and risk evaluation.

CONCLUSION

BRECARDA can enhance disease risk prediction, identify high-risk individuals for BC screening, facilitate disease diagnosis and improve population-level screening efficiency. It can serve as a valuable and supplemental platform to assist doctors in BC diagnosis and evaluation.

Ensembled best subset selection using summary statistics for polygenic risk prediction

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) enhance population risk stratification and advance personalized medicine, yet existing methods face a tradeoff between predictive power and computational efficiency. We introduce ALL-Sum, a fast and scalable PRS method that combines an efficient summary statistic-based L 0 L 2 penalized regression algorithm with an ensembling step that aggregates estimates from different tuning parameters for improved prediction performance. In extensive large-scale simulations across a wide range of polygenicity and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) sample sizes, ALL-Sum consistently outperforms popular alternative methods in terms of prediction accuracy, runtime, and memory usage. We analyze 27 published GWAS summary statistics for 11 complex traits from 9 reputable data sources, including the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium, Breast Cancer Association Consortium, and FinnGen, evaluated using individual-level UKBB data. ALL-Sum achieves the highest accuracy for most traits, particularly for GWAS with large sample sizes. We provide ALL-Sum as a user-friendly command-line software with pre-computed reference data for streamlined user-end analysis.

Stronger regulation of AI in biomedicine

Regulatory agencies need to ensure the safety and equity of AI in biomedicine, and the time to do so is now.

Don't miss the chance to reap the fruits of recent advances in behavioral genetics

In her target article, Burt revives a by now ancient debate on nature and nurture, and the ways to measure, disentangle, and ultimately trust one or the other of these forces. Unfortunately, she largely dismisses recent advances in behavior genetics and its huge potential in contributing to a better prediction and understanding of complex traits in social sciences.

Data-driven subgroups of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and the relationship with cardiovascular diseases at genetic and clinical levels in Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

To subgroup Chinese patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) by K-means cluster analysis on clinical indicators, and to explore whether these subgroups represent different genetic features and calculated cardiovascular risks.

METHODS

The K-means clustering analysis was performed on two cohorts (n = 590 and 392), both consisting of Chinese participants with newly diagnosed T2D. To assess genetic risks, multiple polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and mitochondrial DNA copy numbers (mtDNA-CN) were calculated for all participants. Furthermore, Framingham risk scores (FRS) of cardiovascular diseases in two cohorts were also calculated to verify the genetic risks.

RESULTS

Four clusters were identified including the mild age-related diabetes (MARD)(35.08%), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD) (34.41%), severe autoimmune diabetes (SAID) 19.15%, and severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD) 11.36% subgroups in the MARCH (metformin, and acarbose in Chinese patients as the initial hypoglycemic treatment) cohort. There was a significant difference in PRS for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) across four subgroups in the MARCH cohort (p < 0.05). Compared with the SIDD and SIRD subgroups, patients in the MOD subgroup had a relatively lower PRS for CVD (p < 0.05) in the MARCH cohort. Females had a higher PRS compared to males, with no significant difference in FRS across the four clusters. The MOD subgroup had a significantly lower FRS which was consistent with the results of PRS. Similar results of PRS and FRS were also replicated in the CONFIDENCE (comparison of glycemic control and b-cell function among newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes treated with exenatide, insulin or pioglitazone) cohort.

CONCLUSION

There are different CVD risks in diabetic subgroups based on clinical and genetic evidence which may promote precision medicine.

Interplay of Mendelian and polygenic risk factors in Arab breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer patients from the indigenous Arab population present much earlier than patients from Western countries and have traditionally been underrepresented in cancer genomics studies. The contribution of polygenic and Mendelian risk toward the earlier onset of breast cancer in the population remains elusive.

METHODS

We performed low-pass whole genome sequencing (lpWGS) and whole-exome sequencing (WES) from 220 female breast cancer patients unselected for positive family history from the indigenous Arab population. Using publicly available resources, we imputed population-specific variants and calculated breast cancer burden-sensitive polygenic risk scores (PRS). Variant pathogenicity was also evaluated on exome variants with high coverage.

RESULTS

Variants imputed from lpWGS showed high concordance with paired exome (median dosage correlation: 0.9459, Interquartile range: 0.9410-0.9490). After adjusting the PRS to the Arab population, we found significant associations between PRS performance in risk prediction and first-degree relative breast cancer history prediction (Spearman rho=0.43, p = 0.03), where breast cancer patients in the top PRS decile are 5.53 (95% CI 1.76-17.97, p = 0.003) times more likely also to have a first-degree relative diagnosed with breast cancer compared to those in the middle deciles. In addition, we found evidence for the genetic liability threshold model of breast cancer where among patients with a family history of breast cancer, pathogenic rare variant carriers had significantly lower PRS than non-carriers (p = 0.0205, Mann-Whitney U test) while for non-carriers every standard deviation increase in PRS corresponded to 4.52 years (95% CI 8.88-0.17, p = 0.042) earlier age of presentation.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our study provides a framework to assess polygenic risk in an understudied population using lpWGS and identifies common variant risk as a factor independent of pathogenic variant carrier status for earlier age of onset of breast cancer among indigenous Arab breast cancer patients.

Utility of genetic risk scores in type 1 diabetes

Iterative advances in understanding of the genetics of type 1 diabetes have identified >70 genetic regions associated with risk of the disease, including strong associations across the HLA class II region that account for >50% of heritability. The increased availability of genetic data combined with the decreased costs of generating these data, have facilitated the development of polygenic scores that aggregate risk variants from associated loci into a single number: either a genetic risk score (GRS) or a polygenic risk score (PRS). PRSs incorporate the risk of many possibly correlated variants from across the genome, even if they do not reach genome-wide significance, whereas GRSs estimate the cumulative contribution of a smaller subset of genetic variants that reach genome-wide significance. Type 1 diabetes GRSs have utility in diabetes classification, aiding discrimination between type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and MODY. Type 1 diabetes GRSs are also being used in newborn screening studies to identify infants at risk of future presentation of the disease. Most early studies of type 1 diabetes genetics have been conducted in European ancestry populations, but, to develop accurate GRSs across diverse ancestries, large case-control cohorts from non-European populations are still needed. The current barriers to GRS implementation within healthcare are mainly related to a lack of guidance and knowledge on integration with other biomarkers and clinical variables. Once these limitations are addressed, there is huge potential for 'test and treat' approaches to be used to tailor care for individuals with type 1 diabetes.

Polygenic Risk Score Improves Prediction of Primary Open Angle Glaucoma Onset in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study

Objective or Purpose

Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a highly heritable disease with 127 identified risk loci. Polygenic risks score (PRS) offers a measure of aggregate genetic burden. In this study, we assess whether PRS improves risk stratification in patients with ocular hypertension.

Design

A post-hoc analysis of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) data.

Setting Participants and/or Controls

1636 participants were followed from 1994 to 2020 across 22 sites. The PRS was computed for 1009 OHTS participants using summary statistics from largest cross-ancestry POAG metanalysis with weights trained using 8,813,496 variants from 488,395 participants in the UK Biobank.

Methods Interventions or Testing

Survival regression analysis, with endpoint as development of POAG, predicted disease onset from PRS incorporating baseline covariates.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcome measures were hazard ratios for POAG onset. Concordance index and time-dependent AUC were used to compare the predictive performance of multivariable Cox-Proportional Hazards models.

Results

Mean PRS was significantly higher for POAG-converters (0.24 ± 0.95) than for non-converters (-0.12 ± 1.00) (p < 0.01). POAG risk increased 1.36% with each higher PRS decile, with conversion ranging from 9.5% in the lowest PRS decile to 21.8% in the highest decile. Comparison of low- and high-risk PRS tertiles showed a 1.8-fold increase in 20-year POAG risk for participants of European and African ancestries (p<0.01). In the subgroup randomized to delayed treatment, each increase in PRS decile was associated with a 0.52-year decrease in age at diagnosis, (p=0.05). No significant linear relationship between PRS and age at POAG diagnosis was present in the early treatment group. Prediction models significantly improved with the addition of PRS as a covariate (C-index = 0.77) compared to OHTS baseline model (C-index=0.75) (p<0.01). One standard deviation higher PRS conferred a mean hazard ratio of 1.25 (CI=[1.13, 1.44]) for POAG onset.

Conclusions

Higher PRS is associated with increased risk for, and earlier development of POAG in patients with ocular hypertension. Early treatment may mitigate the risk from high genetic burden, delaying clinically detectable disease by up to 5.2 years. The inclusion of a PRS improves the prediction of POAG onset.

Addressing the Challenge of Biomedical Data Inequality: An Artificial Intelligence Perspective

Artificial intelligence (AI) and other data-driven technologies hold great promise to transform healthcare and confer the predictive power essential to precision medicine. However, the existing biomedical data, which are a vital resource and foundation for developing medical AI models, do not reflect the diversity of the human population. The low representation in biomedical data has become a significant health risk for non-European populations, and the growing application of AI opens a new pathway for this health risk to manifest and amplify. Here we review the current status of biomedical data inequality and present a conceptual framework for understanding its impacts on machine learning. We also discuss the recent advances in algorithmic interventions for mitigating health disparities arising from biomedical data inequality. Finally, we briefly discuss the newly identified disparity in data quality among ethnic groups and its potential impacts on machine learning.

Genetic risk, adherence to healthy lifestyle and acute cardiovascular and thromboembolic complications following SARS-COV-2 infection

Current understanding of determinants for COVID-19-related cardiovascular and thromboembolic (CVE) complications primarily covers clinical aspects with limited knowledge on genetics and lifestyles. Here, we analysed a prospective cohort of 106,005 participants from UK Biobank with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. We show that higher polygenic risk scores, indicating individual's hereditary risk, were linearly associated with increased risks of post-COVID-19 atrial fibrillation (adjusted HR 1.52 [95% CI 1.44 to 1.60] per standard deviation increase), coronary artery disease (1.57 [1.46 to 1.69]), venous thromboembolism (1.33 [1.18 to 1.50]), and ischaemic stroke (1.27 [1.05 to 1.55]). These genetic associations are robust across genders, key clinical subgroups, and during Omicron waves. However, a prior composite healthier lifestyle was consistently associated with a reduction in all outcomes. Our findings highlight that host genetics and lifestyle independently affect the occurrence of CVE complications in the acute infection phrase, which can guide tailored management of COVID-19 patients and inform population lifestyle interventions to offset the elevated cardiovascular burden post-pandemic.

Implementation and Feasibility of Clinical Genome Sequencing Embedded Into the Outpatient Nephrology Care for Patients With Proteinuric Kidney Disease

Introduction

The diagnosis and management of proteinuric kidney diseases such as focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) are challenging. Genetics holds the promise to improve clinical decision making for these diseases; however, it is often performed too late to enable timely clinical action and it is not implemented within routine outpatient nephrology visits.

Methods

We sought to test the implementation and feasibility of clinical rapid genome sequencing (GS) in guiding decision making in patients with proteinuric kidney disease in real-time and embedded in the outpatient nephrology setting.

Results

We enrolled 10 children or young adults with biopsy-proven FSGS (9 cases) or minimal change disease (1 case). The mean age at enrollment was 16.2 years (range 2-30). The workflow did not require referral to external genetics clinics but was conducted entirely during the nephrology standard-of-care appointments. The total turn-around-time from enrollment to return-of-results and clinical decision averaged 21.8 days (12.4 for GS), which is well within a time frame that allows clinically relevant treatment decisions. A monogenic or APOL1-related form of kidney disease was diagnosed in 5 of 10 patients. The genetic findings resulted in a rectified diagnosis in 6 patients. Both positive and negative GS findings determined a change in pharmacological treatment. In 3 patients, the results were instrumental for transplant evaluation, donor selection, and the immunosuppressive treatment. All patients and families received genetic counseling.

Conclusion

Clinical GS is feasible and can be implemented in real-time in the outpatient care to help guiding clinical management. Additional studies are needed to confirm the cost-effectiveness and broader utility of clinical GS across the phenotypic and demographic spectrum of kidney diseases.

Depression pathophysiology, risk prediction of recurrence and comorbid psychiatric disorders using genome-wide analyses

Depression is a common psychiatric disorder and a leading cause of disability worldwide. Here we conducted a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of six datasets, including >1.3 million individuals (371,184 with depression) and identified 243 risk loci. Overall, 64 loci were new, including genes encoding glutamate and GABA receptors, which are targets for antidepressant drugs. Intersection with functional genomics data prioritized likely causal genes and revealed new enrichment of prenatal GABAergic neurons, astrocytes and oligodendrocyte lineages. We found depression to be highly polygenic, with ~11,700 variants explaining 90% of the single-nucleotide polymorphism heritability, estimating that >95% of risk variants for other psychiatric disorders (anxiety, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) were influencing depression risk when both concordant and discordant variants were considered, and nearly all depression risk variants influenced educational attainment. Additionally, depression genetic risk was associated with impaired complex cognition domains. We dissected the genetic and clinical heterogeneity, revealing distinct polygenic architectures across subgroups of depression and demonstrating significantly increased absolute risks for recurrence and psychiatric comorbidity among cases of depression with the highest polygenic burden, with considerable sex differences. The risks were up to 5- and 32-fold higher than cases with the lowest polygenic burden and the background population, respectively. These results deepen the understanding of the biology underlying depression, its disease progression and inform precision medicine approaches to treatment.

AI-based multi-PRS models outperform classical single-PRS models

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) calculate the risk for a specific disease based on the weighted sum of associated alleles from different genetic loci in the germline estimated by regression models. Recent advances in genetics made it possible to create polygenic predictors of complex human traits, including risks for many important complex diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, or cardiovascular diseases, typically influenced by many genetic variants, each of which has a negligible effect on overall risk. In the current study, we analyzed whether adding additional PRS from other diseases to the prediction models and replacing the regressions with machine learning models can improve overall predictive performance. Results showed that multi-PRS models outperform single-PRS models significantly on different diseases. Moreover, replacing regression models with machine learning models, i.e., deep learning, can also improve overall accuracy.

Evolving cardiovascular genetic counseling needs in the era of precision medicine

In the era of Precision Medicine the approach to disease diagnosis, treatment, and prevention is being transformed across medical specialties, including Cardiology, and increasingly involves genomics approaches. The American Heart Association endorses genetic counseling as an essential component in the successful delivery of cardiovascular genetics care. However, with the dramatic increase in the number of available cardiogenetic tests, the demand, and the test result complexity, there is a need not only for a greater number of genetic counselors but more importantly, for highly specialized cardiovascular genetic counselors. Consequently, there is a pressing need for advanced cardiovascular genetic counseling training, along with innovative online services, telemedicine, and patient-facing digital tools, as the most effective way forward. The speed of implementation of these reforms will be of essence in the translation of scientific advancements into measurable benefits for patients with heritable cardiovascular disease and their families.

Variation in prognosis and treatment outcome in juvenile myoclonic epilepsy: a Biology of Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy Consortium proposal for a practical definition and stratified medicine classifications

Reliable definitions, classifications and prognostic models are the cornerstones of stratified medicine, but none of the current classifications systems in epilepsy address prognostic or outcome issues. Although heterogeneity is widely acknowledged within epilepsy syndromes, the significance of variation in electroclinical features, comorbidities and treatment response, as they relate to diagnostic and prognostic purposes, has not been explored. In this paper, we aim to provide an evidence-based definition of juvenile myoclonic epilepsy showing that with a predefined and limited set of mandatory features, variation in juvenile myoclonic epilepsy phenotype can be exploited for prognostic purposes. Our study is based on clinical data collected by the Biology of Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy Consortium augmented by literature data. We review prognosis research on mortality and seizure remission, predictors of antiseizure medication resistance and selected adverse drug events to valproate, levetiracetam and lamotrigine. Based on our analysis, a simplified set of diagnostic criteria for juvenile myoclonic epilepsy includes the following: (i) myoclonic jerks as mandatory seizure type; (ii) a circadian timing for myoclonia not mandatory for the diagnosis of juvenile myoclonic epilepsy; (iii) age of onset ranging from 6 to 40 years; (iv) generalized EEG abnormalities; and (v) intelligence conforming to population distribution. We find sufficient evidence to propose a predictive model of antiseizure medication resistance that emphasises (i) absence seizures as the strongest stratifying factor with regard to antiseizure medication resistance or seizure freedom for both sexes and (ii) sex as a major stratifying factor, revealing elevated odds of antiseizure medication resistance that correlates to self-report of catamenial and stress-related factors including sleep deprivation. In women, there are reduced odds of antiseizure medication resistance associated with EEG-measured or self-reported photosensitivity. In conclusion, by applying a simplified set of criteria to define phenotypic variations of juvenile myoclonic epilepsy, our paper proposes an evidence-based definition and prognostic stratification of juvenile myoclonic epilepsy. Further studies in existing data sets of individual patient data would be helpful to replicate our findings, and prospective studies in inception cohorts will contribute to validate them in real-world practice for juvenile myoclonic epilepsy management.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

Polygenic scoring accuracy varies across the genetic ancestry continuum

Polygenic scores (PGSs) have limited portability across different groupings of individuals (for example, by genetic ancestries and/or social determinants of health), preventing their equitable use1-3. PGS portability has typically been assessed using a single aggregate population-level statistic (for example, R2)4, ignoring inter-individual variation within the population. Here, using a large and diverse Los Angeles biobank5 (ATLAS, n = 36,778) along with the UK Biobank6 (UKBB, n = 487,409), we show that PGS accuracy decreases individual-to-individual along the continuum of genetic ancestries7 in all considered populations, even within traditionally labelled 'homogeneous' genetic ancestries. The decreasing trend is well captured by a continuous measure of genetic distance (GD) from the PGS training data: Pearson correlation of -0.95 between GD and PGS accuracy averaged across 84 traits. When applying PGS models trained on individuals labelled as white British in the UKBB to individuals with European ancestries in ATLAS, individuals in the furthest GD decile have 14% lower accuracy relative to the closest decile; notably, the closest GD decile of individuals with Hispanic Latino American ancestries show similar PGS performance to the furthest GD decile of individuals with European ancestries. GD is significantly correlated with PGS estimates themselves for 82 of 84 traits, further emphasizing the importance of incorporating the continuum of genetic ancestries in PGS interpretation. Our results highlight the need to move away from discrete genetic ancestry clusters towards the continuum of genetic ancestries when considering PGSs.

Addressing the ethical and societal challenges posed by genome-wide association studies of behavioral and brain-related traits

Genome-wide association studies have led to the identification of robust statistical associations of genetic variants with numerous brain-related traits, including neurological and psychiatric conditions, and psychological and behavioral measures. These results may provide insight into the biology underlying these traits and may facilitate clinically useful predictions. However, these results also carry the risk of harm, including possible negative effects of inaccurate predictions, violations of privacy, stigma and genomic discrimination, raising serious ethical and legal implications. Here, we discuss ethical concerns surrounding the results of genome-wide association studies for individuals, society and researchers. Given the success of genome-wide association studies and the increasing availability of nonclinical genomic prediction technologies, better laws and guidelines are urgently needed to regulate the storage, processing and responsible use of genetic data. Also, researchers should be aware of possible misuse of their results, and we provide guidance to help avoid such negative impacts on individuals and society.

Reconstruction of the personal information from human genome reads in gut metagenome sequencing data

Human DNA present in faecal samples can result in a small number of human reads in gut shotgun metagenomic sequencing data. However, it is presently unclear how much personal information can be reconstructed from such reads, and this has not been quantitatively evaluated. Such a quantitative evaluation is necessary to clarify the ethical concerns related to data sharing and to enable efficient use of human genetic information in stool samples, such as for research and forensics. Here we used genomic approaches to reconstruct personal information from the faecal metagenomes of 343 Japanese individuals with associated human genotype data. Genetic sex could be accurately predicted based on the sequencing depth of sex chromosomes for 97.3% of the samples. Individuals could be re-identified from the matched genotype data based on human reads recovered from the faecal metagenomic data with 93.3% sensitivity using a likelihood score-based method. This method also enabled us to predict the ancestries of 98.3% of the samples. Finally, we performed ultra-deep shotgun metagenomic sequencing of five faecal samples as well as whole-genome sequencing of blood samples. Using genotype-calling approaches, we demonstrated that the genotypes of both common and rare variants could be reconstructed from faecal samples. This included clinically relevant variants. Our approach can be used to quantify personal information contained within gut metagenome data.

A Polygenic Risk Score Enhances Risk Prediction for Adolescents' Antisocial Behavior over the Combined Effect of 22 Extra-familial, Familial, and Individual Risk Factors in the Context of the Family Check-Up

Possessing informative tools to predict who is most at risk for antisocial behavior in adolescence is important to help identify families most in need of early intervention. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been shown to predict antisocial behavior, but it remains unclear whether PRSs provide additional benefit above more conventional tools to early risk detection for antisocial behavior. This study examined the utility of a PRS in predicting adolescents' antisocial behavior after accounting for a broad index of children's contextual and individual risk factors for antisocial behavior. Participants were drawn from a longitudinal family-based prevention study (N = 463; Ncontrol = 224; 48.8% girls; 45.1% White; 30.2% Black; 12.7% Hispanic/Latino, 10.4% biracial; 0.2% Native American). Participants were recruited from US-based Women, Infants, and Children Nutritional Supplement programs. A risk tolerance PRS was created from a genome-wide association study. We created a robust measure capturing additive effects of 22 conventional measures of a risk of antisocial behavior assessed at child age 2 (before intervention). A latent variable capturing antisocial behavior (ages 10.5-16) was created. After accounting for intervention status and the conventional risk index, the risk tolerance PRS predicted independent variance in antisocial behavior. A PRS-by-conventional risk interaction showed that the conventional risk measure only predicted antisocial behavior at high levels of the PRS. Thus, the risk tolerance PRS provides unique predictive information above conventional screening tools and, when combined with them, identified a higher-risk subgroup of children. Integrating PRSs could facilitate risk identification and, ultimately, prevention screening, particularly in settings unable to serve all individuals in need.

Genome-wide admixture and association analysis identifies African ancestry-specific risk loci of eosinophilic esophagitis in African Americans

BACKGROUND

Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), a chronic allergic inflammatory disease, is linked to multiple genetic risk factors, but studies have focused on populations of European ancestry. Few studies have assessed Black or African American (AA) populations for loci involved in EoE susceptibility.

OBJECTIVE

We performed admixture mapping (AM) and genome-wide association study (GWAS) of EoE using participants from AA populations.

METHODS

We conducted AM and GWAS of EoE using 137 EoE cases and 1465 healthy controls from the AA population. Samples were genotyped using molecular evolutionary genetics analysis (MEGA). Genotype imputation was carried out with the Consortium on Asthma Among African-Ancestry Populations in the Americas (CAAPA) reference panel using the Michigan Imputation Server. Global and local ancestry inference was carried out, followed by fine mapping and RNA sequencing. After quality control filtering, over 6,000,000 variants were tested by logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, and global ancestry.

RESULTS

The global African ancestry proportion was found to be significantly lower among cases than controls (0.751 vs 0.786, P = .012). Case-only AM identified 3 significant loci (9p13.3, 12q24.22-23, and 15q11.2) associated with EoE, of which 12q24.22-23 and 9p13.3 were further replicated in the case-control analysis, with associations observed with African ancestry. Fine mapping and multiomic functional annotations prioritized the variants rs11068264 (FBXW8) and rs7307331 (VSIG10) at 12q24.23 and rs2297879 (ARHGEF39) at 9p13.3. GWAS identified 1 genome-wide significant locus at chromosome 1p22.3 (rs17131726, DDAH1) and 10 other suggestive loci. Most GWAS variants were low-frequency African ancestry-specific variants. RNA sequencing revealed that esophageal DDAH1 and VSIG10 were downregulated and ARHGEF39 upregulated among EoE cases.

CONCLUSIONS

GWAS and AM for EoE in AA revealed that African ancestry-specific genetic susceptibility loci exist at 1p22.3, 9p13.3, and 12q24.23, providing evidence of ancestry-specific inheritance of EoE. More independent genetic studies of different ancestries for EoE are needed.

An atlas of genetic scores to predict multi-omic traits

The use of omic modalities to dissect the molecular underpinnings of common diseases and traits is becoming increasingly common. But multi-omic traits can be genetically predicted, which enables highly cost-effective and powerful analyses for studies that do not have multi-omics1. Here we examine a large cohort (the INTERVAL study2; n = 50,000 participants) with extensive multi-omic data for plasma proteomics (SomaScan, n = 3,175; Olink, n = 4,822), plasma metabolomics (Metabolon HD4, n = 8,153), serum metabolomics (Nightingale, n = 37,359) and whole-blood Illumina RNA sequencing (n = 4,136), and use machine learning to train genetic scores for 17,227 molecular traits, including 10,521 that reach Bonferroni-adjusted significance. We evaluate the performance of genetic scores through external validation across cohorts of individuals of European, Asian and African American ancestries. In addition, we show the utility of these multi-omic genetic scores by quantifying the genetic control of biological pathways and by generating a synthetic multi-omic dataset of the UK Biobank3 to identify disease associations using a phenome-wide scan. We highlight a series of biological insights with regard to genetic mechanisms in metabolism and canonical pathway associations with disease; for example, JAK-STAT signalling and coronary atherosclerosis. Finally, we develop a portal ( https://www.omicspred.org/ ) to facilitate public access to all genetic scores and validation results, as well as to serve as a platform for future extensions and enhancements of multi-omic genetic scores.

The clinical utility of polygenic risk scores for combined hyperlipidemia

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Combined hyperlipidemia is the most common lipid disorder and is strongly polygenic. Given its prevalence and associated risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, this review describes the potential for utilizing polygenic risk scores for risk prediction and management of combined hyperlipidemia.

RECENT FINDINGS

Different diagnostic criteria have led to inconsistent prevalence estimates and missed diagnoses. Given that individuals with combined hyperlipidemia have risk estimates for incident coronary artery disease similar to individuals with familial hypercholesterolemia, early identification and therapeutic management of those affected is crucial. With diagnostic criteria including traits such apolipoprotein B, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglyceride, polygenic risk scores for these traits strongly associate with combined hyperlipidemia and could be used in combination for clinical risk prediction models and developing specific treatment plans for patients.

SUMMARY

Polygenic risk scores are effective tools in risk prediction of combined hyperlipidemia, can provide insight into disease pathophysiology, and may be useful in managing and guiding treatment plans for patients. However, efforts to ensure equitable polygenic risk score performance across different genetic ancestry groups is necessary before clinical implementation in order to prevent the exacerbation of racial disparities in the clinic.