Cardiovascular disease and diabetes in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study Cohort - evaluation of risk factors and their interactions

BMD-Related Genetic Risk Scores Predict Site-Specific Fractures as Well as Trabecular and Cortical Bone Microstructure

CONTEXT

It is important to identify patients at highest risk of fractures.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the separate and combined performances of bone-related genetic risk scores (GRSs) for prediction of forearm, hip and vertebral fractures separately, as well as of trabecular and cortical bone microstructure parameters separately.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Using 1103 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) independently associated with estimated bone mineral density of the heel (eBMD), we developed a weighted GRS for eBMD and determined its contribution to fracture prediction beyond 2 previously developed GRSs for femur neck BMD (49 SNPs) and lumbar spine BMD (48 SNPs). Associations between these GRSs and forearm (ncases = 1020; ncontrols = 2838), hip (ncases = 1123; ncontrols = 2630) and vertebral (ncases = 288; ncontrols = 1187) fractures were evaluated in 3 Swedish cohorts. Associations between the GRSs and trabecular and cortical bone microstructure parameters (n = 426) were evaluated in the MrOS Sweden cohort.

RESULTS

We found that eBMDGRS was the only significant independent predictor of forearm and vertebral fractures while both FN-BMDGRS and eBMDGRS were significant independent predictors of hip fractures. The eBMDGRS was the major GRS contributing to prediction of trabecular bone microstructure parameters while both FN-BMDGRS and eBMDGRS contributed information for prediction of cortical bone microstructure parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

The eBMDGRS independently predicts forearm and vertebral fractures while both FN-BMDGRS and eBMDGRS contribute independent information for prediction of hip fractures. We propose that eBMDGRS captures unique information about trabecular bone microstructure useful for prediction of forearm and vertebral fractures. These findings may facilitate personalized medicine to predict site-specific fractures as well as cortical and trabecular bone microstructure separately.

Chlamydia trachomatis and Anti-MUC1 Serology and Subsequent Risk of High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Northern Sweden

BACKGROUND:Chlamydia trachomatis salpingitis causes inflammatory damage to the fallopian tube and could potentially cause initiation and progression of high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC). Furthermore, C. trachomatis infection may stimulate mucin 1 (MUC1) protein production, possibly affecting anti-MUC1 antibody levels. The aim of this study was to examine if serology indicating past infection with C. trachomatis as well as anti-MUC1 production was associated with subsequent risk of HGSC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a prospective nested case–control study within the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study and the Northern Sweden Maternity Cohort, the prevalence of chlamydial and anti-MUC1 antibodies was analyzed in blood samples drawn more than one year before diagnosis from 92 women with HGSC and 359 matched controls. Matching factors were age, date at blood draw, and sampling cohort. Plasma C. trachomatis IgG was analyzed using commercial micro-immunofluorescence test; chlamydial Heat Shock Protein 60 IgG (cHSP60) and anti-MUC1 IgG were analyzed with ELISA technique. RESULTS: The prevalence of C. trachomatis IgG and cHSP60 IgG antibodies, as well as the level of anti-MUC1 IgG was similar in women with HGSC and controls (16.3% vs. 17.0%, P = 0.87; 27.2% vs. 28.5%, P = 0.80; median 0.24 vs. 0.25, P = 0.70). Anti-MUC1 IgG and cHSP60 IgG levels were correlated (r = 0.169; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this prospective nested case–control study did not support an association between C. trachomatis infection, as measured by chlamydial serology, or anti-MUC1 IgG antibodies, and subsequent risk of HGSC.

A genetic signature including apolipoprotein Eε4 potentiates the risk of herpes simplex-associated Alzheimer's disease

Introduction

Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV1) in combination with genetic susceptibility has previously been implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis.

Methods

Plasma from 360 AD cases, obtained on average 9.6 years before diagnosis, and their age- and sex-matched controls, were analyzed for anti-HSV1 immunoglobulin (Ig) G with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). A POE genotype and nine other selected risk genes for AD were extracted from a genome-wide association study analysis by deCODE genetics, Reykjavik, Iceland.

Results

The interaction between APOEε4 heterozygosity (APOEε2/ε4 or ε3/ε4) and anti-HSV1 IgG carriage increased the risk of AD (OR 4.55, P = .02). A genetic risk score based on the nine AD risk genes also interacted with anti-HSV1 IgG for the risk of developing AD (OR 2.35, P = .01).

Discussion

The present findings suggest that the APOEε4 allele and other AD genetic risk factors might potentiate the risk of HSV1-associated AD.

Flawed conclusions on the Västerbotten Intervention Program by San Sebastian et .al

An evaluation of Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) was recently conducted by San Sebastian et al. (BMC Public Health 19:202, 2019). Evaluation of health care interventions of this kind require 1) an understanding of both the design and the nature of the intervention, 2) correct definition of the target population, and 3) careful choice of the appropriate evaluation method. In this correspondence, we review the approach used by San Sebastian et al. as relates to these three criteria. Within this framework, we suggest important explanations for why the conclusions drawn by these authors contradict a large body of research on the effectiveness of the VIP.

Dairy Products and Cancer Risk in a Northern Sweden Population

The role of dairy products in cancer is unclear. We assessed consumption of fermented milk, non-fermented milk, cheese, and butter, estimated from semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires, in relation to prospective risk of breast, prostate, colorectal, smoking-, and obesity-related cancers in 101,235 subjects, including 12,552 cancer cases, in the population-based Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. Most analyses (n = 20) rendered null results. In men, we observed an increased prostate cancer risk among high-consumers of cheese (hazard ratio (HR) for highest vs. lowest quintile (Q5-Q1), 1.11; 95% CI, 0.97-1.27; P^trend = 0.013). In women, high-consumers of cheese had a decreased risk of overall cancer (HR Q5-Q1, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.88-1.04; P^trend = 0.039), smoking-related (HR Q5-Q1, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.97; P^trend ≤ 0.001), and colorectal cancers (HR Q5-Q1, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.63-1.07; P^trend = 0.048). Butter yielded a weak decreased obesity-related cancer risk in women (HR Q5-Q1, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.81-1.02; P^trend = 0.049). Fermented milk yielded HRs below zero in women, but with no clear linear associations. In conclusion, this study does not support any major adverse or beneficial effects of fermented milk, non-fermented milk, cheese, and butter in the diet from a cancer risk perspective.

Genes associated with Parkinson's disease respond to increasing polychlorinated biphenyl levels in the blood of healthy females

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a class of widespread environmental pollutants, commonly found in human blood, that have been suggested to be linked to the occurrence of sporadic Parkinson's disease (PD). It has been reported that some non-coplanar PCBs accumulate in the brains of female PD patients. To improve our understanding of the association between PCB exposure and PD risk we have applied whole transcriptome gene expression analysis in blood cells from 594 PCB-exposed subjects (369 female, 225 male). Interestingly, we observe that in females, blood levels of non-coplanar PCBs appear to be associated with expression levels of PD-specific genes. However, no such association was detected in males. Among the 131 PD-specific genes affected, 39 have been shown to display similar changes in expression levels in the substantia nigra of deceased PD patients. Especially among the down-regulated genes, transcripts of genes involved in neurotransmitter vesicle-related functions were predominant.

DNA methylation profiling implicates exposure to PCBs in the pathogenesis of B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the impact of PCB exposure on DNA methylation in peripheral blood leucocytes and to evaluate the corresponding changes in relation to possible health effects, with a focus on B-cell lymphoma.

METHODS

We conducted an epigenome-wide association study on 611 adults free of diagnosed disease, living in Italy and Sweden, in whom we also measured plasma concentrations of 6 PCB congeners, DDE and hexachlorobenzene.

RESULTS

We identified 650 CpG sites whose methylation correlates strongly (FDR < 0.01) with plasma concentrations of at least one PCB congener. Stronger effects were observed in males and in Sweden. This epigenetic exposure profile shows extensive and highly statistically significant overlaps with published profiles associated with the risk of future B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) as well as with clinical CLL (38 and 28 CpG sites, respectively). For all these sites, the methylation changes were in the same direction for increasing exposure and for higher disease risk or clinical disease status, suggesting an etiological link between exposure and CLL. Mediation analysis reinforced the suggestion of a causal link between exposure, changes in DNA methylation and disease. Disease connectivity analysis identified multiple additional diseases associated with differentially methylated genes, including melanoma for which an etiological link with PCB exposure is established, as well as developmental and neurological diseases for which there is corresponding epidemiological evidence. Differentially methylated genes include many homeobox genes, suggesting that PCBs target stem cells. Furthermore, numerous polycomb protein target genes were hypermethylated with increasing exposure, an effect known to constitute an early marker of carcinogenesis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides mechanistic evidence in support of a link between exposure to PCBs and the etiology of CLL and underlines the utility of omic profiling in the evaluation of the potential toxicity of environmental chemicals.

Immune marker changes and risk of multiple myeloma: a nested case-control study using repeated pre-diagnostic blood samples

Biomarkers reliably predicting progression to multiple myeloma (MM) are lacking. Myeloma risk has been associated with low blood levels of monocyte chemotactic protein-3 (MCP-3), macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha (MIP-1α), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2), fractalkine, and transforming growth factor-alpha (TGF-α). In this study, we aimed to replicate these findings and study the individual dynamics of each marker in a prospective longitudinal cohort, thereby examining their potential as markers of myeloma progression. For this purpose, we identified 65 myeloma cases and 65 matched cancer-free controls each with two donated blood samples within the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. The first and repeated samples from myeloma cases were donated at a median 13 and 4 years, respectively, before the myeloma was diagnosed. Known risk factors for progression were determined by protein-, and immunofixation electrophoresis, and free light chain assays. We observed lower levels of MCP-3, VEGF, FGF-2, and TGF-α in myeloma patients than in controls, consistent with previous data. We also observed that these markers decreased among future myeloma patients while remaining stable in controls. Decreasing trajectories were noted for TGF-α (P=2.5 × 10⁻⁴) indicating progression to MM. Investigating this, we found that low levels of TGF-α assessed at the time of the repeated sample were independently associated with risk of progression in a multivariable model (hazard ratio = 3.5; P=0.003). TGF-α can potentially improve early detection of MM.

Identification of Candidate Plasma Protein Biomarkers for Cervical Cancer Using the Multiplex Proximity Extension Assay

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is recommended as the primary test in cervical cancer screening, with co-testing by cytology for HPV-positive women to identify cervical lesions. Cytology has low sensitivity and there is a need to identify biomarkers that could identify dysplasia that are likely to progress to cancer. We searched for plasma proteins that could identify women with cervical cancer using the multiplex proximity extension assay (PEA). The abundance of 100 proteins were measured in plasma collected at the time of diagnosis of patients with invasive cervical cancer and in population controls using the Olink Multiplex panels CVD II, INF I, and ONC II. Eighty proteins showed increased levels in cases compared with controls. We identified a signature of 11 proteins (PTX3, ITGB1BP2, AXIN1, STAMPB, SRC, SIRT2, 4E-BP1, PAPPA, HB-EGF, NEMO and IL27) that distinguished cases and controls with a sensitivity of 0.96 at a specificity of 1.0. This signature was evaluated in a prospective replication cohort with samples collected before, at or after diagnosis and achieved a sensitivity of 0.78 and a specificity 0.56 separating samples collected at the time of diagnosis of invasive cancer from samples collected prior to diagnosis. No difference in abundance was seen between samples collected prior to diagnosis or after treatment as compared with population controls, indicating that this protein signature is mainly informative close to time of diagnosis. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal window in time prior to diagnosis for these biomarker candidates.

Maternal Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy and Offspring Risk of Hypertension: A Population-Based Cohort and Sibling Study

BACKGROUND

Women with a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are at increased risk of hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. Offspring from pregnancies complicated by HDP also have worse cardiometabolic status in childhood and young adulthood, but the offspring risk of clinical hypertension in adulthood is largely unknown.

METHODS

We studied 13,893 first-born adult offspring (49.4% female) who attended a structured population-based primary care visit (The Västerbotten Health Survey) at age 40 years in Sweden between 1994 and 2013. Data on maternal HDP were collected from a population-based birth register. We investigated the association between maternal HDP and the risk of adult offspring hypertension and worse cardiometabolic risk factor status utilizing multivariable poisson and linear regression models. We also conducted a sibling comparison, which inherently accounted for familial factors shared by siblings (N = 135).

RESULTS

Offspring participants of women with HDP (N = 383, 2.8%) had increased relative risk of hypertension (1.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.38, 2.01) and also higher mean body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and worse 2-hour 75 g oral glucose tolerance test result at age 40 years. No difference was observed for serum cholesterol. Point estimates for the cardiometabolic risk factors were attenuated in the sibling analyses.

CONCLUSION

Offspring born to mothers with a history of HDP are on an adverse cardiometabolic trajectory and should be considered as concomitant targets for primordial prevention of hypertension in the maternal post-pregnancy period.

Haploinsufficiency of UNC13D increases the risk of lymphoma

Background

Experimental models have demonstrated that immune surveillance by cytotoxic lymphocytes can protect from spontaneous neoplasms and cancer. In humans, defective lymphocyte cytotoxicity is associated with the development of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, a hyperinflammatory syndrome. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the degree to which human lymphocyte cytotoxicity protects from cancer remains unclear. In the current study, the authors examined the risk of lymphoma attributable to haploinsufficiency in a gene required for lymphocyte cytotoxicity.

Methods

The authors exploited a founder effect of an UNC13D inversion, which abolishes Munc13‐4 expression and causes hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis in an autosomal recessive manner. Within 2 epidemiological screening programs in northern Sweden, an area demonstrating a founder effect of this specific UNC13D mutation, all individuals with a diagnosis of lymphoma (487 patients) and matched controls (1844 controls) were assessed using polymerase chain reaction for carrier status.

Results

Among 487 individuals with lymphoma, 15 (3.1%) were heterozygous carriers of the UNC13D inversion, compared with 18 controls (1.0%) (odds ratio, 3.0; P = .002). It is interesting to note that a higher risk of lymphoma was attributed to female carriers (odds ratio, 3.7; P = .004).

Conclusions

Establishing a high regional prevalence of the UNC13D inversion, the authors have reported an overrepresentation of this mutation in individuals with lymphoma. Therefore, the results of the current study indicate that haploinsufficiency of a gene required for lymphocyte cytotoxicity can predispose patients to lymphoma, suggesting the importance of cytotoxic lymphocyte‐mediated surveillance of cancer. Furthermore, the results of the current study suggest that female carriers are more susceptible to lymphoma.

In the current study, the authors examine the risk of lymphoma attributable to an inversion disrupting UNC13D, a gene associated with familial hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. The results demonstrate that haploinsufficiency of this gene, which is required for normal lymphocyte cytotoxicity, may predispose patients to lymphoma, signifying the importance of cytotoxic lymphocyte‐mediated surveillance of cancer development.

Dairy Product Intake and Cardiometabolic Diseases in Northern Sweden: A 33-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Dairy products are important constituents of most diets, and their association with adverse health outcomes remains a focus. We characterized dairy food intake and examined associations with the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke among 108,065 Swedish men and women. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards models in a population characterized by high milk tolerance. During a mean follow-up of 14.2 years, 11,641 first-time events occurred. Non-fermented milk intake decreased, whereas butter intake increased over the period. For high intake of non-fermented milk, the HR (95% CI) for developing T2D and MI was 1.17 (1.03, 1.34) and 1.23 (1.10, 1.37), respectively, in men. A greater intake of butter, fermented milk, and cheese tended to be associated with a reduced risk of T2D and/or MI. Non-consumers and those who chose low-fat variants of the targeted dairy products had increased risk for T2D, MI, or stroke compared to those in the non-case group. Generally, effect-sizes were small. This prospective study found that non-fermented milk was associated with an increased risk for developing T2D and MI and that subjects abstaining from dairy products or choosing low-fat variants were at greater risk. However, the overall cardiometabolic risk of non-fermented milk intake was judged as low, since the effect sizes were small.

Identification of Sex-Specific Transcriptome Responses to Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs)

PCBs are classified as xenoestrogens and carcinogens and their health risks may be sex-specific. To identify potential sex-specific responses to PCB-exposure we established gene expression profiles in a population study subdivided into females and males. Gene expression profiles were determined in a study population consisting of 512 subjects from the EnviroGenomarkers project, 217 subjects who developed lymphoma and 295 controls were selected in later life. We ran linear mixed models in order to find associations between gene expression and exposure to PCBs, while correcting for confounders, in particular distribution of white blood cells (WBC), as well as random effects. The analysis was subdivided according to sex and development of lymphoma in later life. The changes in gene expression as a result of exposure to the six studied PCB congeners were sex- and WBC type specific. The relatively large number of genes that are significantly associated with PCB-exposure in the female subpopulation already indicates different biological response mechanisms to PCBs between the two sexes. The interaction analysis between different PCBs and WBCs provides only a small overlap between sexes. In males, cancer-related pathways and in females immune system-related pathways are identified in association with PCBs and WBCs. Future lymphoma cases and controls for both sexes show different responses to the interaction of PCBs with WBCs, suggesting a role of the immune system in PCB-related cancer development.

Epigenome-wide association study of adiposity and future risk of obesity-related diseases

BACKGROUND

Obesity is an established risk factor for several common chronic diseases such as breast and colorectal cancer, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases; however, the biological basis for these relationships is not fully understood. To explore the association of obesity with these conditions, we investigated peripheral blood leucocyte (PBL) DNA methylation markers for adiposity and their contribution to risk of incident breast and colorectal cancer and myocardial infarction.

METHODS

DNA methylation profiles (Illumina Infinium® HumanMethylation450 BeadChip) from 1941 individuals from four population-based European cohorts were analysed in relation to body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip and waist-height ratio within a meta-analytical framework. In a subset of these individuals, data on genome-wide gene expression level, biomarkers of glucose and lipid metabolism were also available. Validation of methylation markers associated with all adiposity measures was performed in 358 individuals. Finally, we investigated the association of obesity-related methylation marks with breast, colorectal cancer and myocardial infarction within relevant subsets of the discovery population.

RESULTS

We identified 40 CpG loci with methylation levels associated with at least one adiposity measure. Of these, one CpG locus (cg06500161) in ABCG1 was associated with all four adiposity measures (P = 9.07×10-8 to 3.27×10-18) and lower transcriptional activity of the full-length isoform of ABCG1 (P = 6.00×10-7), higher triglyceride levels (P = 5.37×10-9) and higher triglycerides-to-HDL cholesterol ratio (P = 1.03×10-10). Of the 40 informative and obesity-related CpG loci, two (in IL2RB and FGF18) were significantly associated with colorectal cancer (inversely, P < 1.6×10-3) and one intergenic locus on chromosome 1 was inversely associated with myocardial infarction (P < 1.25×10-3), independently of obesity and established risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that epigenetic changes, in particular altered DNA methylation patterns, may be an intermediate biomarker at the intersection of obesity and obesity-related diseases, and could offer clues as to underlying biological mechanisms.

Tooth loss is a complex measure of oral disease: Determinants and methodological considerations

OBJECTIVES

Counts of missing teeth or measures of incident tooth loss are gaining attention as a simple way to measure dental status in large population studies. We explore the meaning of these metrics and how missing teeth might influence other measures of dental status.

METHODS

An observational study was performed in 2 contrasting adult populations. In total, 62 522 adult participants were available with clinically assessed caries and periodontal indices from the Swedish arm of the Gene-Lifestyle Interactions and Dental Endpoints Study (GLIDE) and the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) in the Republic of Korea. Longitudinal measures of tooth loss were available for 28 244 participants in GLIDE with median follow-up of 10.6 years.

RESULTS

In longitudinal analysis, hazard for tooth loss was associated with baseline dental status (previous tooth loss, periodontal status and caries status) and socio-demographic variables (age, smoking status and highest educational level). Analysis of cross-sectional data suggested that indices of caries exposure were not independent of periodontal status. The strength and direction of association varied between groups, even for measures specifically intended to avoid measuring tooth loss. Individuals with impaired periodontal health (community periodontal index [CPI] 3 or higher in any sextant) had higher standardized decayed and filled surfaces (DFS; number of DFS divided by total number of tooth surfaces) in GLIDE (incidence risk ratio [IRR] 1.05 [95% CI: 1.04, 1.07], but lower standardized DFS in KNHANES (IRR: 0.95 [0.92, 0.98]) than individuals with better periodontal health (CPI <3 in all sextants).

CONCLUSIONS

Incident tooth loss is a complex measure of dental disease, with multiple determinants. The relative importance of dental caries and periodontal disease as drivers of tooth loss differs between age groups. Measures of dental caries exposure are associated with periodontal status in the studied populations, and these associations can be population-specific. Consideration of the study-specific properties of these metrics may be required for valid inference in large population studies.

Blood levels of cadmium and lead in relation to breast cancer risk in three prospective cohorts

Cadmium and lead have been classified as carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. However, their associations with breast cancer risk are unknown despite their persistence in the environment and ubiquitous human exposure. We examined associations of circulating levels of cadmium and lead with breast cancer risk in three case-control studies nested within the Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II) LifeLink Cohort, European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition - Italy (EPIC-Italy) and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS) cohorts. Metal levels were measured in stored erythrocytes from 1,435 cases and 1,433 controls using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Summary relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using random-effects models with each study result weighted by the within- and between-study variances. I² values were calculated to estimate proportion of between study variation. Using common cut-points, cadmium levels were not associated with breast cancer risk in the CPS-II cohort (continuous RR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.76-1.34), but were inversely associated with risk in the EPIC- Italy (continuous RR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.61-1.03) and NSHDS cohorts (continuous RR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.54-0.97). The inverse association was also evident in the meta-analysis (continuous RR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.69-1.01) with low between-study heterogeneity. Large differences in lead level distributions precluded a meta-analysis of their association with breast cancer risk; no associations were found in the three studies. Adult cadmium and lead levels were not associated with higher risk of breast cancer in our large meta-analysis.

Midlife development of type 2 diabetes and hypertension in women by history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Women with history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are at increased risk of early onset cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to investigate the extent to which HDP is also associated with midlife development of T2D and hypertension above and beyond established risk factors.

METHODS

We included parous women who attended population-based structured clinical visits at age 50 and 60 years in Sweden 1991-2013 (N = 6587). Women with prior diabetes mellitus, stroke, or ischemic heart disease at age 50 years were excluded. Data on reproductive history were collected from registries. To study the association between history of HDP and the between-visits development of T2D, hypertension, and clinical risk factors of cardiometabolic disease (body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, and total cholesterol), we utilized multivariable adjusted regression models (logistic, log binomial, and linear regression, respectively). Models included data on outcome risk factors at age 50 years, e.g. BMI, 75 g 2 h oral glucose tolerance test result, and mean arterial pressure, respectively.

RESULTS

Between ages 50 and 60 years, 5.8% of initially disease-free women developed T2D and 31.6% developed hypertension. History of HDP was associated with increased risk of developing T2D between age 50 and 60 years even when adjusting for risk factors, including BMI, at age 50 years (odds ratio (OR) 1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-2.98). By contrast, the higher risk of developing hypertension observed in women with history of HDP (relative risk (RR) 1.47, 95% CI 1.22-1.78) was attenuated when adjusted for risk factors (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.94-1.25). Participants with a history of HDP had higher mean BMI and blood pressure at age 50 years, with levels roughly corresponding to those observed at age 60 years in unaffected women.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with history of HDP are not only at higher risk of cardiometabolic disease during their reproductive years, but HDP is also associated with midlife T2D development above and beyond established risk factors.

The value of pregnancy complication history for 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction in middle-aged women

Women with a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP; preeclampsia and gestational hypertension) or delivering low birth weight offspring (LBW; < 2500 g) have twice the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to study the extent to which history of these pregnancy complications improves CVD risk prediction above and beyond conventional predictors. Parous women attended standardized clinical visits in Sweden. Data were linked to registries of deliveries and CVD. Participants were followed for a first CVD event within 10 years from age 50 (n = 7552) and/or 60 years (n = 5360) and the predictive value of each pregnancy complication above and beyond conventional predictors was investigated. History of LBW offspring was associated with increased risk of CVD when added to conventional predictors in women 50 years of age [Hazard ratio 1.68, 95% Confidence interval (CI) 1.19, 2.37] but not at age 60 (age interaction p = 0.04). However, at age 50 years CVD prediction was not further improved by information on LBW offspring, except that a greater proportion of the women who developed CVD were assigned to a higher risk category (categorical net reclassification improvement for events 0.038, 95% CI 0.003, 0.074). History of HDP was not associated with CVD when adjusted for reference model predictors. In conclusion, a history of pregnancy complications can identify women with increased risk of CVD midlife. However, considered with conventional risk factors, history of HDP or having delivered LBW offspring did not meaningfully improve 10-year CVD risk prediction in women age 50 years or older.

Association between low-grade inflammation and Breast cancer and B-cell Myeloma and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: findings from two prospective cohorts

Chronic inflammation may be involved in cancer development and progression. Using 28 inflammatory-related proteins collected from prospective blood samples from two case-control studies nested in the Italian component of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (n = 261) and in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (n = 402), we tested the hypothesis that an inflammatory score is associated with breast cancer (BC) and Β-cell Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (B-cell NHL, including 68 multiple myeloma cases) onset. We modelled the relationship between this inflammatory score and the two cancers studied: (BC and B-cell NHL) using generalised linear models, and assessed, through adjustments the role of behaviours and lifestyle factors. Analyses were performed by cancer types pooling both populations, and stratified by cohorts, and time to diagnosis. Our results suggested a lower inflammatory score in B-cell NHL cases (β = -1.28, p = 0.012), and, to lesser, extent with BC (β = -0.96, p = 0.33) compared to controls, mainly driven by cancer cases diagnosed less than 6 years after enrolment. These associations were not affected by subsequent adjustments for potential intermediate confounders, notably behaviours. Sensitivity analyses indicated that our findings were not affected by the way the inflammatory score was calculated. These observations call for further studies involving larger populations, larger variety of cancer types and repeated measures of larger panel of inflammatory markers.

Longitudinal study of body mass index, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hypertension in 60,000 men and women in Sweden and Austria

BACKGROUND

Obesity is suggested to underlie development of other metabolic aberrations, but longitudinal relationships between metabolic factors at various ages has not been studied in detail.

METHODS

Data from 27,379 men and 32,275 women with in total 122,940 health examinations in the Västerbotten Intervention Project, Sweden and the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Prevention Programme, Austria were used to investigate body mass index (BMI), mid-blood pressure, and fasting levels of glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol at baseline in relation to 10-year changes of these factors and weight. We included paired examinations performed 10±2 years apart and used them for longitudinal analysis with linear regression of changes between the ages 30 and 40, 40 and 50, or 50 and 60 years.

RESULTS

Higher levels of BMI were associated with increases in glucose and mid-blood pressure as well as triglycerides levels, and, to a lesser extent, decreases in cholesterol levels. For instance, per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI at age 40, glucose at age 50 increased by 0.24 mmol/l (95%CI: 0.22-0.26) and mid-blood pressure increased by 1.54 mm Hg (95%CI: 1.35-1.74). The strongest association observed was between BMI at age 30 and mid-blood pressure, which was 2.12 mm Hg (95% CI: 1.79-2.45) increase over ten years per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI level. This association was observed at an age when blood pressure levels on average remained stable. Other associations than those with BMI at baseline were much weaker. However, triglyceride levels were associated with future glucose changes among individuals with elevated BMI, particularly in the two older age groups.

CONCLUSION

BMI was most indicative of long-term changes in metabolic factors, and the strongest impact was observed for increases in blood pressure between 30 and 40 years of age. Our study supports that lifestyle interventions preventing metabolic aberrations should focus on avoiding weight increases.

Novel genetic loci associated with long-term deterioration in blood lipid concentrations and coronary artery disease in European adults

Background

Cross-sectional genome-wide association studies have identified hundreds of loci associated with blood lipids and related cardiovascular traits, but few genetic association studies have focused on long-term changes in blood lipids.

Methods

Participants from the GLACIER Study (Nmax = 3492) were genotyped with the MetaboChip array, from which 29 387 SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms; replication, fine-mapping regions and wildcard SNPs for lipid traits) were extracted for association tests with 10-year change in total cholesterol (ΔTC) and triglycerides (ΔTG). Four additional prospective cohort studies (MDC, PIVUS, ULSAM, MRC Ely; Nmax = 8263 participants) were used for replication. We conducted an in silico look-up for association with coronary artery disease (CAD) in the Coronary ARtery DIsease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis (CARDIoGRAMplusC4D) Consortium (N ∼ 190 000) and functional annotation for the top ranking variants.

Results

In total, 956 variants were associated (P < 0.01) with either ΔTC or ΔTG in GLACIER. In GLACIER, chr19:50121999 at APOE was associated with ΔTG and multiple SNPs in the APOA1/A4/C3/A5 region at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8), whereas variants in four loci, DOCK7, BRE, SYNE1 and KCNIP1, reached study-wide significance (P < 1.7 × 10-6). The rs7412 variant at APOE was associated with ΔTC in GLACIER (P < 1.7 × 10-6). In pooled analyses of all cohorts, 139 SNPs at six and five loci were associated with ΔTC and for ΔTG, respectively (P < 10-3). Of these, a variant at CAPN3 (P = 1.2 × 10-4), multiple variants at HPR (Pmin = 1.5 × 10-6) and a variant at SIX5 (P = 1.9 × 10-4) showed evidence for association with CAD.

Conclusions

We identified seven novel genomic regions associated with long-term changes in blood lipids, of which three also raise CAD risk.

The combined effects of FADS gene variation and dietary fats in obesity-related traits in a population from the far north of Sweden: the GLACIER Study

Background

Recent analyses in Greenlandic Inuit identified six genetic polymorphisms (rs74771917, rs3168072, rs12577276, rs7115739, rs174602, and rs174570) in the fatty acid desaturase gene cluster (FADS1-FADS2-FADS3) that are associated with multiple metabolic and anthropometric traits. Our objectives were to systematically assess whether dietary polyunsaturated fat acid (PUFA) intake modifies the associations between genetic variants in the FADS gene cluster and cardiometabolic traits and to functionally annotate top ranking candidates to estimate their regulatory potential.

Methods

Data analyses consisted: interaction analyses between the six candidate genetic variants and dietary PUFA intake; gene-centric joint analyses to detect interaction signals in the FADS region; haplotype block-centric joint tests across 30 haplotype blocks in the FADS region to refine interaction signals; functional annotation of top loci. These analyses were undertaken in Swedish adults from the GLACIER Study (N=5,160); data on genetic variation and eight cardiometabolic traits was used.

Results

Interactions were observed between rs174570 and n-6 PUFA intake on fasting glucose (P_int=0.005) and between rs174602 and n-3 PUFA intake on total cholesterol (P_int=0.001). Gene-centric analyses demonstrated a statistically significant interaction effect for FADS and n-3 PUFA on triglycerides (P=0.005) considering genetic main effects as random. Haplotype analyses revealed three blocks (P_int<0.011) that could drive the interaction between FADS and n-3 PUFA on triglycerides; Functional annotation of these regions showed that each block harbours a number of highly functional regulatory variants; FADS2 rs5792235 demonstrated the highest functionality score.

Conclusions

The association between FADS variants and triglycerides may be modified by PUFA intake. The intronic FADS2 rs5792235 variant is a potential causal variant in the region having the highest regulatory potential. However, our results suggest that haplotypes may harbour multiple functional variants in a region, rather than a single variant.

Pre-diagnostic blood immune markers, incidence and progression of B-cell lymphoma and multiple myeloma: Univariate and functionally informed multivariate analyses

Recent prospective studies have shown that dysregulation of the immune system may precede the development of B‐cell lymphomas (BCL) in immunocompetent individuals. However, to date, the studies were restricted to a few immune markers, which were considered separately. Using a nested case–control study within two European prospective cohorts, we measured plasma levels of 28 immune markers in samples collected a median of 6 years before diagnosis (range 2.01–15.97) in 268 incident cases of BCL (including multiple myeloma [MM]) and matched controls. Linear mixed models and partial least square analyses were used to analyze the association between levels of immune marker and the incidence of BCL and its main histological subtypes and to investigate potential biomarkers predictive of the time to diagnosis. Linear mixed model analyses identified associations linking lower levels of fibroblast growth factor‐2 (FGF‐2 p = 7.2 × 10⁻⁴) and transforming growth factor alpha (TGF‐α, p = 6.5 × 10⁻⁵) and BCL incidence. Analyses stratified by histological subtypes identified inverse associations for MM subtype including FGF‐2 (p = 7.8 × 10⁻⁷), TGF‐α (p = 4.08 × 10⁻⁵), fractalkine (p = 1.12 × 10⁻³), monocyte chemotactic protein‐3 (p = 1.36 × 10⁻⁴), macrophage inflammatory protein 1‐alpha (p = 4.6 × 10⁻⁴) and vascular endothelial growth factor (p = 4.23 × 10⁻⁵). Our results also provided marginal support for already reported associations between chemokines and diffuse large BCL (DLBCL) and cytokines and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Case‐only analyses showed that Granulocyte‐macrophage colony stimulating factor levels were consistently higher closer to diagnosis, which provides further evidence of its role in tumor progression. In conclusion, our study suggests a role of growth‐factors in the incidence of MM and of chemokine and cytokine regulation in DLBCL and CLL.

What's new?

B‐cell lymphomas (BCL) are frequent in immunocompromised individuals, but most BCL cases are thought to occur as a consequence of minor immune perturbations in otherwise immunocompetent individuals. Here the authors prospectively examined a panel of immune markers in the blood from 268 patients afflicted with BCL and paired controls. The data uncover a functional role for growth factors (i.e. FGF‐2, TGF‐alpha) in the incidence and progression of multiple myeloma, a BCL subtype, and underscore the importance of chemokine and cytokine regulation in diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Coffee consumption and risk of rare cancers in Scandinavian countries

Studies on the association between heavy coffee consumption and risk of less frequently diagnosed cancers are scarce. We aimed to quantify the association between filtered, boiled, and total coffee consumption and the risk of bladder, esophageal, kidney, pancreatic, and stomach cancers. We used data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. Information on coffee consumption was available for 193,439 participants. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the investigated cancer sites by category of total, filtered, and boiled coffee consumption. Heavy filtered coffee consumers (≥ 4 cups/day) had a multivariable adjusted HR of 0.74 of being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (95% CI 0.57-0.95) when compared with light filtered coffee consumers (≤ 1 cup/day). We did not observe significant associations between total or boiled coffee consumption and any of the investigated cancer sites, neither in the entire study sample nor in analyses stratified by sex. We found an increased risk of bladder cancer among never smokers who were heavy filtered or total coffee consumers, and an increased risk of stomach cancer in never smokers who were heavy boiled coffee consumers. Our data suggest that increased filtered coffee consumption might reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer. We did not find evidence of an association between coffee consumption and the risk of esophageal or kidney cancer. The increased risk of bladder and stomach cancer was confined to never smokers.

Anti-Müllerian hormone and risk of ovarian cancer in nine cohorts

Animal and experimental data suggest that anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) serves as a marker of ovarian reserve and inhibits the growth of ovarian tumors. However, few epidemiologic studies have examined the association between AMH and ovarian cancer risk. We conducted a nested case-control study of 302 ovarian cancer cases and 336 matched controls from nine cohorts. Prediagnostic blood samples of premenopausal women were assayed for AMH using a picoAMH enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression. AMH concentration was not associated with overall ovarian cancer risk. The multivariable-adjusted OR (95% CI), comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of AMH, was 0.99 (0.59-1.67) (Ptrend : 0.91). The association did not differ by age at blood draw or oral contraceptive use (all Pheterogeneity : ≥0.26). There also was no evidence for heterogeneity of risk for tumors defined by histologic developmental pathway, stage, and grade, and by age at diagnosis and time between blood draw and diagnosis (all Pheterogeneity : ≥0.39). In conclusion, this analysis of mostly late premenopausal women from nine cohorts does not support the hypothesized inverse association between prediagnostic circulating levels of AMH and risk of ovarian cancer.

Lipoprotein(a) and the Apolipoprotein B/A1 Ratio Independently Associate With Surgery for Aortic Stenosis Only in Patients With Concomitant Coronary Artery Disease

Background

Aortic stenosis (AS) has different clinical phenotypes, including AS with or without concomitant coronary artery disease (CAD). It is unknown whether these phenotypes share the same risk factors. In particular, lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] and apolipoproteins (Apo) are associated with AS, but it is unknown whether these associations differ among phenotypes. In this prospective analysis we examined the impact of Lp(a) and Apo in subgroups of patients with AS.

Methods and Results

We identified 336 patients (mean age at survey 56.7 years, 48% female) who underwent surgery for AS after a median 10.9 years (interquartile range 9.3 years), participants in 1 of 3 large population surveys. For each patient, 2 matched referents were allocated. Lp(a) and Apo were analyzed in the baseline samples. Uni‐ and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to estimate risks related to a 1 (ln) standard deviation increase in Lp(a) and the ratio of Apo B to Apo A1 (Apo B/A1 ratio). High levels of Lp(a) predicted surgery for AS in 203 patients with concomitant CAD (odds ratio [95% confidence intervals]) (1.29 [1.07‐1.55]), but not in 132 patients without CAD (1.04 [0.83‐1.29]) in the fully adjusted model. Similarly, a high Apo B/A1 ratio predicted surgery in patients with concomitant CAD (1.43 [1.16‐1.76]) but not in those without CAD (0.87 [0.69‐1.10]).

Conclusions

High levels of Lp(a) and a high Apo B/A1 ratio were associated with surgery for AS in patients with concomitant CAD but not in those with isolated AS. This finding may lead to a new avenue of research for targeted risk factor interventions in this population.

DNA methylation and exposure to ambient air pollution in two prospective cohorts

Long-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with several adverse health effects including cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and cancers. However, underlying molecular alterations remain to be further investigated. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on (a) average DNA methylation at functional regions and, (b) individual differentially methylated CpG sites. An assumption is that omic measurements, including the methylome, are more sensitive to low doses than hard health outcomes. This study included blood-derived DNA methylation (Illumina-HM450 methylation) for 454 Italian and 159 Dutch participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Long-term air pollution exposure levels, including NO2, NOx, PM2.5, PMcoarse, PM10, PM2.5 absorbance (soot) were estimated using models developed within the ESCAPE project, and back-extrapolated to the time of sampling when possible. We meta-analysed the associations between the air pollutants and global DNA methylation, methylation in functional regions and epigenome-wide methylation. CpG sites found differentially methylated with air pollution were further investigated for functional interpretation in an independent population (EnviroGenoMarkers project), where (N=613) participants had both methylation and gene expression data available. Exposure to NO2 was associated with a significant global somatic hypomethylation (p-value=0.014). Hypomethylation of CpG island's shores and shelves and gene bodies was significantly associated with higher exposures to NO2 and NOx. Meta-analysing the epigenome-wide findings of the 2 cohorts did not show genome-wide significant associations at single CpG site level. However, several significant CpG were found if the analyses were separated by countries. By regressing gene expression levels against methylation levels of the exposure-related CpG sites, we identified several significant CpG-transcript pairs and highlighted 5 enriched pathways for NO2 and 9 for NOx mainly related to the immune system and its regulation. Our findings support results on global hypomethylation associated with air pollution, and suggest that the shores and shelves of CpG islands and gene bodies are mostly affected by higher exposure to NO2 and NOx. Functional differences in the immune system were suggested by transcriptome analyses.

Postmenopausal hormone therapy and risk of stroke: A pooled analysis of data from population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Recent research indicates a favourable influence of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) if initiated early, but not late, on subclinical atherosclerosis. However, the clinical relevance of timing of HT initiation for hard end points such as stroke remains to be determined. Further, no previous research has considered the timing of initiation of HT in relation to haemorrhagic stroke risk. The importance of the route of administration, type, active ingredient, and duration of HT for stroke risk is also unclear. We aimed to assess the association between HT and risk of stroke, considering the timing of initiation, route of administration, type, active ingredient, and duration of HT.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data on HT use reported by the participants in 5 population-based Swedish cohort studies, with baseline investigations performed during the period 1987-2002, were combined in this observational study. In total, 88,914 postmenopausal women who reported data on HT use and had no previous cardiovascular disease diagnosis were included. Incident events of stroke (ischaemic, haemorrhagic, or unspecified) and haemorrhagic stroke were identified from national population registers. Laplace regression was employed to assess crude and multivariable-adjusted associations between HT and stroke risk by estimating percentile differences (PDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The fifth and first PDs were calculated for stroke and haemorrhagic stroke, respectively. Crude models were adjusted for age at baseline only. The final adjusted models included age at baseline, level of education, smoking status, body mass index, level of physical activity, and age at menopause onset. Additional variables evaluated for potential confounding were type of menopause, parity, use of oral contraceptives, alcohol consumption, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, family history of cardiovascular disease, and cohort. During a median follow-up of 14.3 years, 6,371 first-time stroke events were recorded; of these, 1,080 were haemorrhagic. Following multivariable adjustment, early initiation (<5 years since menopause onset) of HT was associated with a longer stroke-free period than never use (fifth PD, 1.00 years; 95% CI 0.42 to 1.57), but there was no significant extension to the time period free of haemorrhagic stroke (first PD, 1.52 years; 95% CI -0.32 to 3.37). When considering timing as a continuous variable, the stroke-free and the haemorrhagic stroke-free periods were maximal if HT was initiated approximately 0-5 years from the onset of menopause. If single conjugated equine oestrogen HT was used, late initiation of HT was associated with a shorter stroke-free (fifth PD, -4.41 years; 95% CI -7.14 to -1.68) and haemorrhagic stroke-free (first PD, -9.51 years; 95% CI -12.77 to -6.24) period than never use. Combined HT when initiated late was significantly associated with a shorter haemorrhagic stroke-free period (first PD, -1.97 years; 95% CI -3.81 to -0.13), but not with a shorter stroke-free period (fifth PD, -1.21 years; 95% CI -3.11 to 0.68) than never use. Given the observational nature of this study, the possibility of uncontrolled confounding cannot be excluded. Further, immortal time bias, also related to the observational design, cannot be ruled out.

CONCLUSIONS

When initiated early in relation to menopause onset, HT was not associated with increased risk of incident stroke, regardless of the route of administration, type of HT, active ingredient, and duration. Generally, these findings held also for haemorrhagic stroke. Our results suggest that the initiation of HT 0-5 years after menopause onset, as compared to never use, is associated with a decreased risk of stroke and haemorrhagic stroke. Late initiation was associated with elevated risks of stroke and haemorrhagic stroke when conjugated equine oestrogen was used as single therapy. Late initiation of combined HT was associated with haemorrhagic stroke risk.

Tea and coffee consumption in relation to DNA methylation in four European cohorts

Lifestyle factors, such as food choices and exposure to chemicals, can alter DNA methylation and lead to changes in gene activity. Two such exposures with pharmacologically active components are coffee and tea consumption. Both coffee and tea have been suggested to play an important role in modulating disease-risk in humans by suppressing tumour progression, decreasing inflammation and influencing estrogen metabolism. These mechanisms may be mediated by changes in DNA methylation. To investigate if DNA methylation in blood is associated with coffee and tea consumption, we performed a genome-wide DNA methylation study for coffee and tea consumption in four European cohorts (N = 3,096). DNA methylation was measured from whole blood at 421,695 CpG sites distributed throughout the genome and analysed in men and women both separately and together in each cohort. Meta-analyses of the results and additional regional-level analyses were performed. After adjusting for multiple testing, the meta-analysis revealed that two individual CpG-sites, mapping to DNAJC16 and TTC17, were differentially methylated in relation to tea consumption in women. No individual sites were associated with men or with the sex-combined analysis for tea or coffee. The regional analysis revealed that 28 regions were differentially methylated in relation to tea consumption in women. These regions contained genes known to interact with estradiol metabolism and cancer. No significant regions were found in the sex-combined and male-only analysis for either tea or coffee consumption.

Defining the genetic susceptibility to cervical neoplasia-A genome-wide association study

A small percentage of women with cervical HPV infection progress to cervical neoplasia, and the risk factors determining progression are incompletely understood. We sought to define the genetic loci involved in cervical neoplasia and to assess its heritability using unbiased unrelated case/control statistical approaches. We demonstrated strong association of cervical neoplasia with risk and protective HLA haplotypes that are determined by the amino-acids carried at positions 13 and 71 in pocket 4 of HLA-DRB1 and position 156 in HLA-B. Furthermore, 36% (standard error 2.4%) of liability of HPV-associated cervical pre-cancer and cancer is determined by common genetic variants. Women in the highest 10% of genetic risk scores have approximately >7.1% risk, and those in the highest 5% have approximately >21.6% risk, of developing cervical neoplasia. Future studies should examine genetic risk prediction in assessing the risk of cervical neoplasia further, in combination with other screening methods.

Around 1% of women with cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection progress to cervical cancer. Previous studies had indicated that a person’s genetic makeup could predispose to HPV-associated cervical cancer, and that some of the genes likely to be involved include the immune-related human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes among the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). However, it has been difficult to determine which alleles might be associated with cervical pre-cancer or cancer due to the complex and high level of co-inheritance of MHC alleles. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study that assessed the correlation of genetic variants among those with cervical cancer and healthy controls. We show that host genetics is a major determinant of HPV-associated cervical cancer, with 36% of liability due to common genetic variants in the population, and identify both risk and protective HLA alleles. Our study was also sufficiently powerful to identify particular residue variants on a number of the immune-related proteins that provide risk or protection, providing further insight into the biological basis for cervical cancer development. Our findings could lay the foundation for screening for people at increased risk of developing cancer following HPV infection, and aid in the treatment and prognosis of cervical cancer.

SNX10 gene mutation leading to osteopetrosis with dysfunctional osteoclasts

Autosomal recessive osteopetrosis (ARO) is a heterogeneous disorder, characterized by defective osteoclastic resorption of bone that results in increased bone density. We have studied nine individuals with an intermediate form of ARO, from the county of Västerbotten in Northern Sweden. All afflicted individuals had an onset in early infancy with optic atrophy, and in four patients anemia was present at diagnosis. Tonsillar herniation, foramen magnum stenosis, and severe osteomyelitis of the jaw were common clinical features. Whole exome sequencing, verified by Sanger sequencing, identified a splice site mutation c.212 + 1 G > T in the SNX10 gene encoding sorting nexin 10. Sequence analysis of the SNX10 transcript in patients revealed activation of a cryptic splice site in intron 4 resulting in a frame shift and a premature stop (p.S66Nfs * 15). Haplotype analysis showed that all cases originated from a single mutational event, and the age of the mutation was estimated to be approximately 950 years. Functional analysis of osteoclast progenitors isolated from peripheral blood of patients revealed that stimulation with receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL) resulted in a robust formation of large, multinucleated osteoclasts which generated sealing zones; however these osteoclasts exhibited defective ruffled borders and were unable to resorb bone in vitro.

Dietary inflammatory index and risk of first myocardial infarction; a prospective population-based study

BACKGROUND

Chronic, low-grade inflammation is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The inflammatory impact of diet can be reflected by concentrations of inflammatory markers in the bloodstream and the inflammatory potential of diet can be estimated by the dietary inflammatory index (DII^TM), which has been associated with cardiovascular disease risk in some previous studies. We aimed to examine the association between the DII and the risk of first myocardial infarction (MI) in a population-based study with long follow-up.

METHOD

We conducted a prospective case-control study of 1389 verified cases of first MI and 5555 matched controls nested within the population-based cohorts of the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS), of which the largest is the ongoing Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) with nearly 100 000 participants during the study period. Median follow-up from recruitment to MI diagnosis was 6.4 years (6.2 for men and 7.2 for women). DII scores were derived from a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) administered in 1986-2006. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), using quartile 1 (most anti-inflammatory diet) as the reference category. For validation, general linear models were used to estimate the association between the DII scores and two inflammatory markers, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) in a subset (n = 605) of the study population.

RESULTS

Male participants with the most pro-inflammatory DII scores had an increased risk of MI [OR_Q4vsQ1 = 1.57 (95% CI 1.21-2.02) P _trend = 0.02], which was essentially unchanged after adjustment for potential confounders, including cardiovascular risk factors [OR_Q4vsQ1 = 1.50 (95% CI 1.14-1.99), P _trend = 0.10]. No association was found between DII and MI in women. An increase of one DII score unit was associated with 9% higher hsCRP (95% CI 0.03-0.14) and 6% higher IL-6 (95% CI 0.02-0.11) in 605 controls with biomarker data available.

CONCLUSION

A pro-inflammatory diet was associated with an elevated risk of first myocardial infarction in men; whereas for women the relationship was null. Consideration of the inflammatory impact of diet could improve prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Demographic, lifestyle, and other factors in relation to antimüllerian hormone levels in mostly late premenopausal women

OBJECTIVE

To identify reproductive, lifestyle, hormonal, and other correlates of circulating antimüllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations in mostly late premenopausal women.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Not applicable.

PATIENT(S)

A total of 671 premenopausal women not known to have cancer.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Concentrations of AMH were measured in a single laboratory using the picoAMH ELISA. Multivariable-adjusted median (and interquartile range) AMH concentrations were calculated using quantile regression for several potential correlates.

RESULT(S)

Older women had significantly lower AMH concentrations (≥40 [n = 444] vs. <35 years [n = 64], multivariable-adjusted median 0.73 ng/mL vs. 2.52 ng/mL). Concentrations of AMH were also significantly lower among women with earlier age at menarche (<12 [n = 96] vs. ≥14 years [n = 200]: 0.90 ng/mL vs. 1.12 ng/mL) and among current users of oral contraceptives (n = 27) compared with never or former users (n = 468) (0.36 ng/mL vs. 1.15 ng/mL). Race, body mass index, education, height, smoking status, parity, and menstrual cycle phase were not significantly associated with AMH concentrations. There were no significant associations between AMH concentrations and androgen or sex hormone-binding globulin concentrations or with factors related to blood collection (e.g., sample type, time, season, and year of blood collection).

CONCLUSION(S)

Among premenopausal women, lower AMH concentrations are associated with older age, a younger age at menarche, and currently using oral contraceptives, suggesting these factors are related to a lower number or decreased secretory activity of ovarian follicles.

Longitudinal 10-year changes in dietary intake and associations with cardio-metabolic risk factors in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study

BACKGROUND

Dietary risks today constitute the largest proportion of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally and in Sweden. An increasing number of people today consume highly processed foods high in saturated fat, refined sugar and salt and low in dietary fiber, vitamins and minerals. It is important that dietary trends over time are monitored to predict changes in disease risk.

METHODS

In total, 15,995 individuals with two visits 10 (±1) years apart in the population-based Västerbotten Intervention Programme 1996-2014 were included. Dietary intake was captured with a 64-item food frequency questionnaire. Percent changes in intake of dietary components, Healthy Diet Score and Dietary Inflammatory Index were calculated and related to body mass index (BMI), serum cholesterol and triglyceride levels and blood pressure at the second visit in multivariable regression analyses.

RESULTS

For both sexes, on group level, proportion of energy intake (E%) from carbohydrates and sucrose decreased (largest carbohydrate decrease among 40 year-olds) and E% protein and total fat as well as saturated and poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) increased (highest protein increase among 30 year-olds and highest fat increase among 60 year-olds) over the 10-year period. Also, E% trans-fatty acids decreased. On individual basis, for both sexes decreases in intake of cholesterol and trans-fatty acids were associated with lower BMI and serum cholesterol at second visit (all P < 0.05). For men, increases in intake of whole grain and Healthy Diet Score were associated with lower BMI and serum cholesterol at second visit (all P < 0.05). Also for men, decreases in intake of trans-fatty acids and increases in Healthy Diet Score were associated with lower systolic blood pressure at second visit (P = 0.002 and P < 0.000). For women, increases in intake of PUFA and Healthy Diet Score were associated with lower BMI at second visit (P = 0.01 and P < 0.05). Surprisingly, increases in intake of sucrose among women were associated with lower BMI at second visit (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large population-based sample, dietary changes over 10 years towards less carbohydrates and more protein and fat were noted. Individual changes towards the Nordic dietary recommendations were associated with healthier cardio-metabolic risk factor profile at second visit.

Exploring the nature of prediagnostic blood transcriptome markers of chronic lymphocytic leukemia by assessing their overlap with the transcriptome at the clinical stage

Background

We recently identified 700 genes whose expression levels were predictive of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) in a genome-wide gene expression analysis of prediagnostic blood from future cases and matched controls. We hypothesized that a large fraction of these markers were likely related to early disease manifestations. Here we aim to gain a better understanding of the natural history of the identified markers by comparing results from our prediagnostic analysis, the only prediagnostic analysis to date, to results obtained from a meta-analysis of a series of publically available transcriptomics profiles obtained in incident CLL cases and controls.

Results

We observed considerable overlap between the results from our prediagnostic study and the clinical CLL signals (p-value for overlap Bonferroni significant markers 0.01; p-value for overlap nominal significant markers < 2.20e-16). We observed similar patterns with time to diagnosis and similar functional annotations for the markers that were identified in both settings compared to the markers that were only identified in the prediagnostic study. These results suggest that both gene sets operate in similar pathways.

Conclusion

An overlap exists between expression levels of genes predictive of CLL identified in prediagnostic blood and expression levels of genes associated to CLL at the clinical stage. Our analysis provides insight in a set of genes for which expression levels can be used to follow the time-course of the disease; providing an opportunity to study CLL progression in more detail in future studies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-017-3627-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The heritable basis of gene-environment interactions in cardiometabolic traits

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Little is known about the heritable basis of gene-environment interactions in humans. We therefore screened multiple cardiometabolic traits to assess the probability that they are influenced by genotype-environment interactions.

METHODS

Fourteen established environmental risk exposures and 11 cardiometabolic traits were analysed in the VIKING study, a cohort of 16,430 Swedish adults from 1682 extended pedigrees with available detailed genealogical, phenotypic and demographic information, using a maximum likelihood variance decomposition method in Sequential Oligogenic Linkage Analysis Routines software.

RESULTS

All cardiometabolic traits had statistically significant heritability estimates, with narrow-sense heritabilities (h ²) ranging from 24% to 47%. Genotype-environment interactions were detected for age and sex (for the majority of traits), physical activity (for triacylglycerols, 2 h glucose and diastolic BP), smoking (for weight), alcohol intake (for weight, BMI and 2 h glucose) and diet pattern (for weight, BMI, glycaemic traits and systolic BP). Genotype-age interactions for weight and systolic BP, genotype-sex interactions for BMI and triacylglycerols and genotype-alcohol intake interactions for weight remained significant after multiple test correction.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Age, sex and alcohol intake are likely to be major modifiers of genetic effects for a range of cardiometabolic traits. This information may prove valuable for studies that seek to identify specific loci that modify the effects of lifestyle in cardiometabolic disease.

Blood-based omic profiling supports female susceptibility to tobacco smoke-induced cardiovascular diseases

We recently reported that differential gene expression and DNA methylation profiles in blood leukocytes of apparently healthy smokers predicts with remarkable efficiency diseases and conditions known to be causally associated with smoking, suggesting that blood-based omic profiling of human populations may be useful for linking environmental exposures to potential health effects. Here we report on the sex-specific effects of tobacco smoking on transcriptomic and epigenetic features derived from genome-wide profiling in white blood cells, identifying 26 expression probes and 92 CpG sites, almost all of which are affected only in female smokers. Strikingly, these features relate to numerous genes with a key role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease, especially thrombin signaling, including the thrombin receptors on platelets F2R (coagulation factor II (thrombin) receptor; PAR1) and GP5 (glycoprotein 5), as well as HMOX1 (haem oxygenase 1) and BCL2L1 (BCL2-like 1) which are involved in protection against oxidative stress and apoptosis, respectively. These results are in concordance with epidemiological evidence of higher female susceptibility to tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease and underline the potential of blood-based omic profiling in hazard and risk assessment.

Prediagnosis Leukocyte Telomere Length and Risk of Ovarian Cancer

Background: The associations between telomere length and cancer risk are equivocal, and none have examined the association between prediagnosis leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and the risk of developing ovarian cancer.Methods: We prospectively measured LTL collected from 442 ovarian cancer cases and 727 controls in the Nurses' Health Studies and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. Cases were matched to one or two controls on age, menopausal status, and date of blood collection. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression.Results: LTL was measured a median of 9.5 years before ovarian cancer diagnosis among cases. We observed a decreased risk of ovarian cancer with longer LTL. In multivariable models, women in the top quartile of LTL had an OR for ovarian cancer of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.46-0.97) compared with those in the bottom quartile. Inverse associations were stronger for nonserous cases (OR_{quartile 4 vs. quartile 1 of LTL} = 0.55, 95% CI, 0.33-0.94) and rapidly fatal cases (i.e., cases who died within 3 years of diagnosis; OR_{quartile 4 vs. quartile 1 of LTL} = 0.55, 95% CI, 0.32-0.95).Conclusions: Our prospective findings suggest that longer circulating LTL may be associated with a lower ovarian cancer risk, especially for nonserous and rapidly fatal cases. The evaluation of LTL in relation to ovarian cancer risk by tumor subtypes is warranted in larger prospective studies.Impact: Prediagnosis LTL may reflect an early event in the ovarian cancer development and could serve as a biomarker to predict future risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(3); 339-45. ©2017 AACR.

Prediagnostic plasma concentrations of organochlorines and risk of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma in envirogenomarkers: a nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests a largely environmental component to non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDE and HCB have been repeatedly implicated, but the literature is inconsistent and a causal relationship remains to be determined.

METHODS

The EnviroGenoMarkers study is nested within two prospective cohorts EPIC-Italy and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. Six PCB congeners, DDE and HCB were measured in blood plasma samples provided at recruitment using gas-chromatography mass spectrometry. During 16 years follow-up 270 incident cases of B-cell NHL (including 76 cases of multiple myeloma) were diagnosed. Cases were matched to 270 healthy controls by centre, age, gender and date of blood collection. Cases were categorised into ordered quartiles of exposure for each POP based on the distribution of exposure in the control population. Logistic regression was applied to assess the association with risk, multivariate and stratified analyses were performed to identify confounders or effect modifiers.

RESULTS

The exposures displayed a strong degree of correlation, particularly amongst those PCBs with similar degrees of chlorination. There was no significant difference (p < 0.05) in median exposure levels between cases and controls for any of the investigated exposures. However under a multivariate model PCB138, PCB153, HCB and DDE displayed significant inverse trends (Wald test p-value <0.05). Under stratified analyses these were determined to be driven by males and by the Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma subtype. When considering those in the highest levels of exposure (>90^th percentile) the association was null for all POPs CONCLUSION: We report no evidence that a higher body burden of PCBs, DDE or HCB increased the risk of subsequent NHL diagnosis. Significantly inverse associations were noted for males with a number of the investigated POPs. We hypothesize these unexpected relationships may relate to the subtype composition of our population, effect modification by BMI or other unmeasured confounding. This study provides no additional support for the previously observed role of PCBs, DDE and HCB as risk factors for NHL.

Biomarker Dynamics in B-cell Lymphoma: A Longitudinal Prospective Study of Plasma Samples Up to 25 Years before Diagnosis

The B-cell activation markers CXCL13, sCD23, sCD27, and sCD30 are associated with future lymphoma risk. However, a lack of information about the individual dynamics of marker-disease association hampers interpretation. In this study, we identified 170 individuals who had donated two prediagnostic blood samples before B-cell lymphoma diagnosis, along with 170 matched cancer-free controls from the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. Lymphoma risk associations were investigated by subtype and marker levels measured at baseline, at the time of the repeated sample, and with the rate of change in the marker level. Notably, we observed strong associations between CXCL13, sCD23, sCD27, and sCD30 and lymphoma risk in blood samples collected 15 to 25 years before diagnosis. B-cell activation marker levels increased among future lymphoma cases over time, while remaining stable among controls. Associations between slope and risk were strongest for indolent lymphoma subtypes. We noted a marked association of sCD23 with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (OR_Slope = 28, P_trend = 7.279 × 10^-10). Among aggressive lymphomas, the association between diffuse large B-cell lymphoma risk and slope was restricted to CXCL13. B-cell activation seemed to play a role in B-cell lymphoma development at early stages across different subtypes. Furthermore, B-cell activation presented differential trajectories in future lymphoma patients, mainly driven by indolent subtypes. Our results suggest a utility of these markers in predicting the presence of early occult disease and/or the screening and monitoring of indolent lymphoma in individual patients. Cancer Res; 77(6); 1408-15. ©2017 AACR.

Inflammatory Cytokines and Lung Cancer Risk in 3 Prospective Studies

To further investigate the role of inflammation in lung carcinogenesis, we evaluated associations between proinflammatory cytokines and lung cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study nested within 3 prospective cohort studies-the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (1990-1994), the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (1991-1996), and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (initiated in 1985)-involving 807 incident lung cancer cases and 807 smoking-matched controls. Conditional logistic regression models adjusting for serum cotinine concentrations were used to estimate odds ratios for lung cancer risk associated with concentrations of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, interferon γ, tumor necrosis factor α, and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor. We observed a higher lung cancer risk for participants with elevated concentrations of IL-6 and IL-8. These associations seemed to be stronger among former smokers (for fourth quartile vs. first quartile, odds ratio (OR) = 2.70, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.55, 4.70) and current smokers (OR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.15, 3.44) for IL-6 and among former smokers (OR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.18, 6.75) and current smokers (OR = 1.30, 95% CI: 0.69, 2.44) for IL-8. No notable associations were observed among never smokers. Risk associations with IL-6 and IL-8 were observed for blood samples taken close to diagnosis (<5 years) as well as more than 15 years postdiagnosis.

Plasma concentrations of free amyloid β cannot predict the development of Alzheimer's disease

INTRODUCTION

Biomarkers that identify individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) development would be highly valuable. Plasma concentration of amyloid β (Aβ)-central in the pathogenesis of AD-is a logical candidate, but studies to date have produced conflicting results on its utility.

METHODS

Plasma samples from 339 preclinical AD cases (76.4% women, mean age 61.3 years) and 339 age- and sex-matched dementia-free controls, taken an average of 9.4 years before AD diagnosis, were analyzed using Luminex xMAP technology and INNO-BIA plasma Aβ form assays to determine concentrations of free plasma Aβ₄₀ and Aβ₄₂.

RESULTS

Plasma concentrations of free Aβ₄₀ and Aβ₄₂ did not differ between preclinical AD cases and dementia-free controls, in the full sample or in subgroups defined according to sex and age group (<60 and ≥ 60 years). The interval between sampling and AD diagnosis did not affect the results. Aβ concentrations did not change in the years preceding AD diagnosis among individuals for whom longitudinal samples were available.

DISCUSSION

Plasma concentrations of free Aβ could not predict the development of clinical AD, and Aβ concentrations did not change in the years preceding AD diagnosis in this sample. These results indicate that free plasma Aβ is not a useful biomarker for the identification of individuals at risk of developing clinical AD.

DNA methylation changes measured in pre-diagnostic peripheral blood samples are associated with smoking and lung cancer risk

DNA methylation changes are associated with cigarette smoking. We used the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 array to determine whether methylation in DNA from pre-diagnostic, peripheral blood samples is associated with lung cancer risk. We used a case-control study nested within the EPIC-Italy cohort and a study within the MCCS cohort as discovery sets (a total of 552 case-control pairs). We validated the top signals in 429 case-control pairs from another 3 studies. We identified six CpGs for which hypomethylation was associated with lung cancer risk: cg05575921 in the AHRR gene (p-valuepooled  = 4 × 10-17 ), cg03636183 in the F2RL3 gene (p-valuepooled  = 2 × 10 - 13 ), cg21566642 and cg05951221 in 2q37.1 (p-valuepooled  = 7 × 10-16 and 1 × 10-11 respectively), cg06126421 in 6p21.33 (p-valuepooled  = 2 × 10-15 ) and cg23387569 in 12q14.1 (p-valuepooled  = 5 × 10-7 ). For cg05951221 and cg23387569 the strength of association was virtually identical in never and current smokers. For all these CpGs except for cg23387569, the methylation levels were different across smoking categories in controls (p-valuesheterogeneity  ≤ 1.8 x10 - 7 ), were lowest for current smokers and increased with time since quitting for former smokers. We observed a gain in discrimination between cases and controls measured by the area under the ROC curve of at least 8% (p-values ≥ 0.003) in former smokers by adding methylation at the 6 CpGs into risk prediction models including smoking status and number of pack-years. Our findings provide convincing evidence that smoking and possibly other factors lead to DNA methylation changes measurable in peripheral blood that may improve prediction of lung cancer risk.

Fish consumption and risk of stroke: a second prospective case-control study from northern Sweden

Background

Fish consumption has been concluded to be associated with decreased risk of stroke in several reviews. However, among men, but not women, an increased risk of stroke was previously found at high fish consumption (>3 meals/week) in northern Sweden. This study investigates if previous results on elevated stroke risk with high fish consumption in men in northern Sweden can be confirmed in a larger study with new cases in the same population.

Methods

A prospective nested case-control study was performed within the population-based Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study cohort. Information on fish consumption, other lifestyle and medical data was collected at baseline. Incident stroke cases (1987–2007, n = 735) were identified and 2698 controls matched for gender, age, year of baseline and geographical region.

Results

There were no associations between total fish or fatty fish consumption and stroke risk; thus the previous finding of increased risk of stroke with high fish consumption in men could not be repeated. High intake of lean fish (>twice/week compared to < once/month) was associated with increased stroke risk in men [OR 1.80 (95% CI 1.00, 3.21), but not in women [OR 0.50 (95% CI 0.24, 1.10)]. The association was driven by men living alone.

Conclusions

The previous association between high total fish consumption and risk of stroke in men could not be repeated. The increased risk found in men with high intake of lean fish may be due to chance or confounding specific for this group.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12937-016-0216-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Bicycling to Work and Primordial Prevention of Cardiovascular Risk: A Cohort Study Among Swedish Men and Women

BACKGROUND

Bicycling to work may be a viable approach for achieving physical activity that provides cardiovascular health benefits. In this study we investigated the relationship of bicycling to work with incidence of obesity, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, and impaired glucose tolerance across a decade of follow-up in middle-aged men and women.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We followed 23 732 Swedish men and women with a mean age of 43.5 years at baseline who attended a health examination twice during a 10-year period (1990-2011). In multivariable adjusted models we calculated the odds of incident obesity, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, and impaired glucose tolerance, comparing individuals who commuted to work by bicycle with those who used passive modes of transportation. We also examined the relationship of change in commuting mode with incidence of these clinical risk factors. Cycling to work at baseline was associated with lower odds of incident obesity (odds ratio [OR]=0.85, 95% CI 0.73-0.99), hypertension (OR=0.87, 95% CI 0.79-0.95), hypertriglyceridemia (OR=0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.94), and impaired glucose tolerance (OR=0.88, 95% CI 0.80-0.96) compared with passive travel after adjusting for putative confounding factors. Participants who maintained or began bicycling to work during follow-up had lower odds of obesity (OR=0.61, 95% CI 0.50-0.73), hypertension (OR=0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.98), hypertriglyceridemia (OR=0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.90), and impaired glucose tolerance (OR=0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.91) compared with participants not cycling to work at both times points or who switched from cycling to other modes of transport during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that commuting by bicycle to work is an important strategy for primordial prevention of clinical cardiovascular risk factors among middle-aged men and women.

Intake of vitamin B before onset of Parkinson's disease and atypical parkinsonism and olfactory function at the time of diagnosis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether vitamin-B density in the diet 2-8 years before diagnosis is associated with olfactory function at the time of diagnosis.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

This prospective nested case-control study included patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), multiple system atrophy and progressive supranuclear paralysis identified between 2004 and 2009 in the county of Västerbotten in northern Sweden. The case database (NYPUM study; Newly Diagnosed Parkinson in Umeå; n=147) was cross-linked to the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS). Identified patients (n=96) and controls (n=375) were matched for sex, age, year of health survey, sub-cohort and geographical area. Dietary intake was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire, and the brief smell identification test (B-SIT) was used to measure olfactory function at the time of diagnosis.

RESULTS

There was no difference in vitamin-B or any other macro- or micro-nutrient densities, energy intake or body mass index (kg/m²; BMI) between patients and controls at baseline at the time of the healthcare survey. A lower thiamin and folate density, amount per 1 megajoule, was reported in patients who scored below median on B-SIT (<7) when compared with that in patients who scored ⩾7 at the time of diagnosis. After adjusting for age, sex and BMI using linear and logistic regressions, an even stronger association was found between thiamin density and olfactory function.

CONCLUSIONS

A low thiamin and folate density in the reported diet, 2-8 years before PD diagnosis, was significantly associated with olfactory dysfunction at the time of PD diagnosis.

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment.

METHODS

In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

FINDINGS

We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

INTERPRETATION

In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.