Statistical modeling of volume of alcohol exposure for epidemiological studies of population health: the US example

Global alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden, and data on alcohol exposure are crucial to evaluate progress in achieving global non-communicable disease goals. We present estimates on the main indicators of alcohol exposure for 189 countries from 1990-2017, with forecasts up to 2030.

METHODS

Adult alcohol per-capita consumption (the consumption in L of pure alcohol per adult [≥15 years]) in a given year was based on country-validated data up to 2016. Forecasts up to 2030 were obtained from multivariate log-normal mixture Poisson distribution models. Using survey data from 149 countries, prevalence of lifetime abstinence and current drinking was obtained from Dirichlet regressions. The prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (30-day prevalence of at least one occasion of 60 g of pure alcohol intake among current drinkers) was estimated with fractional response regressions using survey data from 118 countries.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2017, global adult per-capita consumption increased from 5·9 L (95% CI 5·8-6·1) to 6·5 L (6·0-6·9), and is forecasted to reach 7·6 L (6·5-10·2) by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of lifetime abstinence decreased from 46% (42-49) in 1990 to 43% (40-46) in 2017, albeit this was not a significant reduction, while the prevalence of current drinking increased from 45% (41-48) in 1990 to 47% (44-50) in 2017. We forecast both trends to continue, with abstinence decreasing to 40% (37-44) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% decrease) and the proportion of current drinkers increasing to 50% (46-53) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% increase). In 2017, 20% (17-24) of adults were heavy episodic drinkers (compared with 1990 when it was estimated at 18·5% [15·3-21·6%], and this prevalence is expected to increase to 23% (19-27) in 2030.

INTERPRETATION

Based on these data, global goals for reducing the harmful use of alcohol are unlikely to be achieved, and known effective and cost-effective policy measures should be implemented to reduce alcohol exposure.

FUNDING

Centre for Addiction and Mental Health and the WHO Collaborating Center for Addiction and Mental Health at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health.

Research Protocol to Evaluate the Effects of Alcohol Policy Changes in Lithuania

Aims

To point out the importance for public health to evaluate the past policy changes (2016-2018) in Lithuania. To present a research protocol to conduct this evaluation.

Short summary

The staggered implementation of key alcohol policies in Lithuania over the past two years offers the possibility to evaluate 'best buys' for alcohol policies for this country. Lithuania is the only country where all 'best buys' were implemented over a short period of time, so this evaluation will be unique.

Methods

Quasi-experimental design based on interrupted time-series analysis of monthly routine statistics of morbidity and mortality indicators as well as key variables on the pathway between alcohol exposure and health outcomes.

Conclusions

For the public health community, results of the evaluation of these policy changes will be of critical importance.

How should we set consumption thresholds for low risk drinking guidelines? Achieving objectivity and transparency using evidence, expert judgement and pragmatism

Most high-income nations issue guidelines on low-risk drinking to inform individuals' decisions about alcohol consumption. However, leading scientists have criticized the processes for setting the consumption thresholds within these guidelines for a lack of objectivity and transparency. This paper examines how guideline developers should respond to such criticisms and focuses particularly on the balance between epidemiological evidence, expert judgement and pragmatic considerations. Although concerned primarily with alcohol, our discussion is also relevant to those developing guidelines for other health-related behaviours. We make eight recommendations across three areas. First, recommendations on the use of epidemiological evidence: (1) guideline developers should assess whether the available epidemiological evidence is communicated most appropriately as population-level messages (e.g. suggesting reduced drinking benefits populations rather than individuals); (2) research funders should prioritize commissioning studies on the acceptability of different alcohol-related risks (e.g. mortality, morbidity, harms to others) to the public and other stakeholders; and (3) guideline developers should request and consider statistical analyses of epidemiological uncertainty. Secondly, recommendations to improve objectivity and transparency when translating epidemiological evidence into guidelines: (4) guideline developers should specify and publish their analytical framework to promote clear, consistent and coherent judgements; and (5) guideline developers' decision-making should be supported by numerical and visual techniques which also increase the transparency of judgements to stakeholders. Thirdly, recommendations relating to the diverse use of guidelines: (6) guideline developers and their commissioners should give meaningful attention to how guidelines are used in settings such as advocacy, health promotion, clinical practice and wider health debates, as well as in risk communication; (7) guideline developers should make evidence-based judgements that balance epidemiological and pragmatic concerns to maximize the communicability, credibility and general effectiveness of guidelines; and (8) as with scientific judgements, pragmatic judgements should be reported transparently.

Alcohol Abuse

Chronic alcohol consumption is a world-wide socioeconomic problem. Three metabolic pathways of ethanol were describe in human - alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH), microsomal ethanol oxidizing system (MEOS, CYP2E1) and catalase. Ethanol directly bounds to different molecules (e.g. etylglucuronid) and ethanol per se and its metabolites have toxic effect on biological stuctures. Alcohol abuse is well known for its liver diseases e.g. cirrhosis (the most frequent cause in Europe and US) and hepatocellular carcinoma. Chronic alcohol comsumption leads to cardiovascular diseases (e.g. hypertension, cardiomyopathy), pancreas damage, myopathies, osteoporosis, neurological and psychiatry diseases including fetal alcohol syndrome and addiction. Alcohol consumption may lead to cancer via several mechanisms, per se (solvent for carcinogens) and its metabolites. Acetaldehyde, a cancerogen, has mutagenic effect on DNA, oxidation of ethanol produces the reactive oxygen and nitrogen species with different effects e.g. cell transformation, DNA, protein and lipid damage. The changes of folate metabolism, altered methylation of DNA, reduction of retionic acid influences on cancer development. The high rate of alcohol consumption has become a great social-health problem. Consumption of alcohol is still increasing in many countries, but in some countries is stable or decreasing (e.g. Mediterranean region). The data across Europe shows that 10% of all cancers in men and 3% of all cancers in women can be attributed to alcohol consumption. Australian data suggests that alcohol intake accounts for 5% of the total cancer burden of disease. Alcohol consumption is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in many developed countries.

The global burden of disease attributable to alcohol and drug use in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Alcohol and drug use can have negative consequences on the health, economy, productivity, and social aspects of communities. We aimed to use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 to calculate global and regional estimates of the prevalence of alcohol, amphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid dependence, and to estimate global disease burden attributable to alcohol and drug use between 1990 and 2016, and for 195 countries and territories within 21 regions, and within seven super-regions. We also aimed to examine the association between disease burden and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases for original epidemiological studies on alcohol and drug use published between Jan 1, 1980, and Sept 7, 2016, with out language restrictions, and used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to estimate population-level prevalence of substance use disorders. We combined these estimates with disability weights to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 1990-2016. We also used a comparative assessment approach to estimate burden attributable to alcohol and drug use as risk factors for other health outcomes.

FINDINGS

Globally, alcohol use disorders were the most prevalent of all substance use disorders, with 100·4 million estimated cases in 2016 (age-standardised prevalence 1320·8 cases per 100 000 people, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1181·2-1468·0). The most common drug use disorders were cannabis dependence (22·1 million cases; age-standardised prevalence 289·7 cases per 100 000 people, 95% UI 248·9-339·1) and opioid dependence (26·8 million cases; age-standardised prevalence 353·0 cases per 100 000 people, 309·9-405·9). Globally, in 2016, 99·2 million DALYs (95% UI 88·3-111·2) and 4·2% of all DALYs (3·7-4·6) were attributable to alcohol use, and 31·8 million DALYs (27·4-36·6) and 1·3% of all DALYs (1·2-1·5) were attributable to drug use as a risk factor. The burden of disease attributable to alcohol and drug use varied substantially across geographical locations, and much of this burden was due to the effect of substance use on other health outcomes. Contrasting patterns were observed for the association between total alcohol and drug-attributable burden and SDI: alcohol-attributable burden was highest in countries with a low SDI and middle-high middle SDI, whereas the burden due to drugs increased with higher S DI level.

INTERPRETATION

Alcohol and drug use are important contributors to global disease burden. Effective interventions should be scaled up to prevent and reduce substance use disease burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Global statistics on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use: 2017 status report

AIMS

This review provides an up-to-date curated source of information on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use and their associated mortality and burden of disease. Limitations in the data are also discussed, including how these can be addressed in the future.

METHODS

Online data sources were identified through expert review. Data were obtained mainly from the World Health Organization, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

RESULTS

In 2015, the estimated prevalence among the adult population was 18.4% for heavy episodic alcohol use (in the past 30 days); 15.2% for daily tobacco smoking; and 3.8, 0.77, 0.37 and 0.35% for past-year cannabis, amphetamine, opioid and cocaine use, respectively. European regions had the highest prevalence of heavy episodic alcohol use and daily tobacco use. The age-standardized prevalence of alcohol dependence was 843.2 per 100 000 people; for cannabis, opioids, amphetamines and cocaine dependence it was 259.3, 220.4, 86.0 and 52.5 per 100 000 people, respectively. High-income North America region had among the highest rates of cannabis, opioid and cocaine dependence. Attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were highest for tobacco smoking (170.9 million DALYs), followed by alcohol (85.0 million) and illicit drugs (27.8 million). Substance-attributable mortality rates were highest for tobacco smoking (110.7 deaths per 100 000 people), followed by alcohol and illicit drugs (33.0 and 6.9 deaths per 100 000 people, respectively). Attributable age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs for alcohol and illicit drugs were highest in eastern Europe; attributable age-standardized tobacco mortality rates and DALYs were highest in Oceania.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2015 alcohol use and tobacco smoking use between them cost the human population more than a quarter of a billion disability-adjusted life years, with illicit drugs costing further tens of millions. Europeans suffered proportionately more, but in absolute terms the mortality rate was greatest in low- and middle-income countries with large populations and where the quality of data was more limited. Better standardized and rigorous methods for data collection, collation and reporting are needed to assess more accurately the geographical and temporal trends in substance use and its disease burden.

Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.

METHODS

Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.

FINDINGS

Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8-8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2-4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8-13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0-2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8-9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0-1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7-1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6-1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2-33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3-22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0-0·8) standard drinks per week.

INTERPRETATION

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sex-Specific Associations Between Alcohol Consumption and Incidence of Hypertension: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND

Although it is well established that heavy alcohol consumption increases the risk of hypertension, the risk associated with low levels of alcohol intake in men and women is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched Medline and Embase for original cohort studies on the association between average alcohol consumption and incidence of hypertension in people without hypertension. Random-effects meta-analyses and metaregressions were conducted. Data from 20 articles with 361 254 participants (125 907 men and 235 347 women) and 90 160 incident cases of hypertension (32 426 men and 57 734 women) were included. In people drinking 1 to 2 drinks/day (12 g of pure ethanol per drink), incidence of hypertension differed between men and women (relative riskwomen vs men=0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.93). In men, the risk for hypertension in comparison with abstainers was relative risk=1.19 (1.07-1.31; I2=59%), 1.51 (1.30-1.76), and 1.74 (1.35-2.24) for consumption of 1 to 2, 3 to 4, and 5 or more standard drinks per day, respectively. In women, there was no increased risk for 1 to 2 drinks/day (relative risk=0.94; 0.88-1.01; I2=73%), and an increased risk for consumption beyond this level (relative risk=1.42; 1.22-1.66).

CONCLUSIONS

Any alcohol consumption was associated with an increase in the risk for hypertension in men. In women, there was no risk increase for consumption of 1 to 2 drinks/day and an increased risk for higher consumption levels. We did not find evidence for a protective effect of alcohol consumption in women, contrary to earlier meta-analyses.

The socioeconomic profile of alcohol-attributable mortality in South Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Globally, illness and life expectancy follow a social gradient that puts people of lower socioeconomic status (SES) at higher risk of dying prematurely. Alcohol consumption has been shown to be a factor contributing to socioeconomic differences in mortality. However, little evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to quantify mortality attributable to alcohol consumption in the adult (15+ years) general population of South Africa in 2015 by SES, age, and sex.

METHODS

A comparative risk assessment was performed using individual and aggregate data from South Africa and risk relations reported in the literature. Alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) and alcohol-attributable mortality rates were estimated for cause-specific mortality by SES, sex, and age. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).

RESULTS

Overall, approximately 62,300 (95% UI 27,000-103,000) adults died from alcohol-attributable causes in South Africa in 2015, with 60% of deaths occurring in people in the low and 15% in the high SES groups. Age-standardized, alcohol-attributable mortality rates per 100,000 adults were highest for the low SES group (727 deaths, 95% UI 354-1208 deaths) followed by the middle (377 deaths, 95% UI 165-687 deaths) and high SES groups (163 deaths, 95% UI 71-289 deaths). The socioeconomic differences were highest for mortality from infectious diseases. People of low SES had a lower prevalence of current alcohol use but heavier drinking patterns among current drinkers. Among men, AAFs were elevated at low and middle SES, particularly for the middle and higher age groups (35+). Among women, AAFs differed less across SES groups and, in the youngest age group (15-34), women of high SES had elevated AAFs.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol use contributed to vast socioeconomic differences in mortality. Where observed, elevated AAFs for people of low and middle SES arose from higher levels of consumption among current drinkers and not from the prevalence of current alcohol use per se. The findings can direct preventive measures and interventions on those at highest risk. Future research is needed to investigate socioeconomic differences in the risk functions relating alcohol use to cause-specific mortality.

Comparison of different approaches for estimating age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality: The cases of France and Finland

Background

Accurate estimates of the impact of alcohol on overall and age-specific mortality are crucial for formulating health policies. However, different approaches to estimating alcohol-attributable mortality provide different results, and a detailed comparison of age-specific estimates is missing.

Methods

Using data on cause of death, alcohol consumption, and relative risks of mortality at different consumption levels, we compare eight estimates of sex- and age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France (2010) and Finland (2013): five estimates using cause-of-death approaches (with one accounting for contributory causes), and three estimates using attributable fraction (AF) approaches.

Results

AF-related approaches and the approach based on alcohol-related underlying and contributory causes of death provided estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality that were twice as high as the estimates found using underlying cause-of-death approaches in both countries and sexes. The differences across the methods were greatest among older age groups An inverse U-shape in age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality (peaking at around age 65) was observed for cause-of-death approaches, with this shape being more pronounced in Finland. AF-related approaches resulted in different estimates at older ages: i.e., mortality was found to increase with age in France; whereas in Finland mortality estimates depended on the underlying assumptions regarding the effects of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusions

While the most detailed approaches (i.e., the AF-related approach and the approach that includes underlying and contributory causes) are theoretically able to provide more accurate estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality, they–especially the AF approaches- depend heavily on data availability and quality. To enhance the reliability of alcohol-attributable mortality estimates, data quality for older age groups needs to be improved.

HIV/AIDS mortality attributable to alcohol use in South Africa: a comparative risk assessment by socioeconomic status

OBJECTIVES

To quantify HIV/AIDS mortality attributable to alcohol use in the adult general population of South Africa in 2012 by socioeconomic status (SES).

DESIGN

Comparative risk assessment based on secondary individual data, aggregate data and risk relations reported in the literature.

SETTING

South African adult general population.

PARTICIPANTS

For metrics of alcohol use by SES, sex and age: 27 070 adults that participated in a nationally representative survey in 2012. For HRs of dying from HIV/AIDS by SES: 87 029 adults that participated in a cohort study (years 2000 to 2014) based out of the Umkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Alcohol-attributable fractions for HIV/AIDS mortality by SES, age and sex were calculated based on the risk of engaging in condom-unprotected sex under the influence of alcohol and interactions between SES and alcohol use. Age-standardised HIV/AIDS mortality rates attributable to alcohol by SES and sex were estimated using alcohol-attributable fractions and SES-specific and sex-specific death counts. Rate ratios were calculated comparing age-standardised rates in low versus high SES by sex.

RESULTS

The age-standardised HIV/AIDS mortality rate attributable to alcohol was 31.0 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 21.6 to 41.3) and 229.6 (95% UI 108.8 to 351.6) deaths per 100 000 adults for men of high and low SES, respectively. For women the respective rates were 10.8 (95% UI 5.5 to 16.1) and 75.5 (95% UI 31.2 to 144.9). The rate ratio was 7.4 (95% UI 3.4 to 13.2) for men and 7.0 (95% UI 2.8 to 18.2) for women. Sensitivity analyses corroborated marked differences in alcohol-attributable HIV/AIDS mortality, with rate ratios between 2.7 (95% UI 0.8 to 7.6; women) and 15.1 (95% UI 6.8 to 27.7; men).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study showed that alcohol use contributed considerably to the socioeconomic differences in HIV/AIDS mortality. Targeting HIV infection under the influence of alcohol is a promising strategy for interventions to reduce the HIV/AIDS burden and related socioeconomic differences in South Africa.

New cancer cases in France in 2015 attributable to different levels of alcohol consumption

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol consumption increases the risk of cancer. Thus, to inform policy decisions, this study estimated the number of new cancer cases in France in 2015 attributable to alcohol consumption generally and to light (< 20 g per day (g/day) among women; < 40 g/day among men), moderate (20 to < 40 g/day among women; 40 to < 60 g/day among men) and heavy drinking (≥ 40 g/day among women; ≥ 60 g/day among men), and the number of cancer cases that would have been prevented assuming a previous 10% decrease in alcohol consumption.

DESIGN

New cancer cases attributable to alcohol were estimated using a population-attributable fraction methodology, assuming a 10-year latency period between exposure and diagnosis.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Population of France, 2015.

MEASUREMENTS

Alcohol consumption was estimated by coordinating data from the Baromètre santé 2005, a national representative survey (n = 30 455), with data from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Relative risks were obtained from meta-analyses. Cancer data were estimated based on data from the French Cancer Registries Network. Uncertainty intervals (UI) were estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure.

FINDINGS

In France in 2015, an estimated 27 894 (95% UI = 24 287-30 996) or 7.9% of all new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol. The number of alcohol-attributable new cancer cases was similar for both men and women, with oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas having the largest attributable fraction (57.7%). Light, moderate, heavy and former alcohol drinking were responsible for 1.5, 1.3, 4.4 and 0.6% of all new cancer cases, respectively. Lastly, if there had been a previous 10% reduction in alcohol consumption, 2178 (95% UI = 1687-2601) new cancer cases would have been prevented.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption in France appears to cause almost 8% of new cancer cases, with light and moderate drinking contributing appreciably to this burden. A 10% drop in drinking in France would have prevented more than 2000 (estimated) new cancer cases in 2015.

Decreases of Life Expectancy Despite Decreases in Non-Communicable Disease Mortality: The Role of Substance Use and Socioeconomic Status

With the epidemiological transition, causes of death shifted from communicable to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and life expectancy increased, as these NCD deaths occurred later in life. However, in the United States, over the past years, life expectancy has been stagnating or decreasing despite decreasing NCD mortality rates. Analyses of the most important underlying causes of death with increasing premature mortality reveal that psychoactive substance use played a crucial role for these increases. Furthermore, it can be shown, that a high proportion of the increased premature mortality and decreased life expectancies happened in lower socio-economic strata. Substance use policies should thus focus on lowering the gap between substance-attributable mortality in higher versus lower socioeconomic strata.

A new methodological approach to adjust alcohol exposure distributions to improve the estimation of alcohol-attributable fractions

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To assess the burden of excessive alcohol use, researchers estimate alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) routinely. However, under-reporting in survey data can bias these estimates. We present an approach that adjusts for under-reporting in the estimation of AAFs, particularly within subgroups. This framework is a refinement of a previous method conducted by Rehm et al.

METHODS

We use a measurement error model to derive the 'true' alcohol distribution from a 'reported' alcohol distribution. The 'true' distribution leverages per-capita sales data to identify the distribution average and then identifies the shape of the distribution with self-reported survey data. Data are from the National Alcohol Survey (NAS), the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) and the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). We compared our approach with previous approaches by estimating the AAF of female breast cancer cases.

RESULTS

Compared with Rehm et al.'s approach, our refinement performs similarly under a gamma assumption. For example, among females aged 18-25 years, the two approaches produce estimates from NHSDA that are within a percentage point. However, relaxing the gamma assumption generally produces more conservative evidence. For example, among females aged 18-25 years, estimates from NHSDA based on the best-fitting distribution are only 19.33% of breast cancer cases, which is a much smaller proportion than the gamma-based estimates of approximately 28%.

CONCLUSIONS

A refinement of Rehm et al.'s approach to adjusting for underreporting in the estimation of alcohol-attributable fractions provides more flexibility. This flexibility can avoid biases associated with failing to account for the underlying differences in alcohol consumption patterns across different study populations. Comparisons of our refinement with Rehm et al.'s approach show that results are similar when a gamma distribution is assumed. However, results are appreciably lower when the best-fitting distribution is chosen versus gamma-based results.

Assessment of alcoholic standard drinks using the Munich composite international diagnostic interview (M-CIDI): An evaluation and subsequent revision

The quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption are crucial both in risk assessment as well as epidemiological and clinical research. Using the Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI), drinking amounts have been assessed in numerous large-scale studies. However, the accuracy of this assessment has rarely been evaluated. This study evaluates the relevance of drink categories and pouring sizes, and the factors used to convert actual drinks into standard drinks. We compare the M-CIDI to alternative drink assessment instruments and empirically validate drink categories using a general population sample (n = 3165 from Germany), primary care samples (n = 322 from Italy, n = 1189 from Germany), and a non-representative set of k = 22503 alcoholic beverages sold in Germany in 2010-2016. The M-CIDI supplement sheet displays more categories than other instruments (AUDIT, TLFB, WHO-CIDI). Beer, wine, and spirits represent the most prevalent categories in the samples. The suggested standard drink conversion factors were inconsistent for different pouring sizes of the same drink and, to a smaller extent, across drink categories. For the use in Germany and Italy, we propose the limiting of drink categories and pouring sizes, and a revision of the proposed standard drinks. We further suggest corresponding examinations and revisions in other cultures.

Life-time risk of mortality due to different levels of alcohol consumption in seven European countries: implications for low-risk drinking guidelines

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Low-risk alcohol drinking guidelines require a scientific basis that extends beyond individual or group judgements of risk. Life-time mortality risks, judged against established thresholds for acceptable risk, may provide such a basis for guidelines. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate alcohol mortality risks for seven European countries based on different average daily alcohol consumption amounts.

METHODS

The maximum acceptable voluntary premature mortality risk was determined to be one in 1000, with sensitivity analyses of one in 100. Life-time mortality risks for different alcohol consumption levels were estimated by combining disease-specific relative risk and mortality data for seven European countries with different drinking patterns (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Poland). Alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, relative risk data from meta-analyses and mortality information from the World Health Organization.

RESULTS

The variation in the life-time mortality risk at drinking levels relevant for setting guidelines was less than that observed at high drinking levels. In Europe, the percentage of adults consuming above a risk threshold of one in 1000 ranged from 20.6 to 32.9% for women and from 35.4 to 54.0% for men. Life-time risk of premature mortality under current guideline maximums ranged from 2.5 to 44.8 deaths per 1000 women in Finland and Estonia, respectively, and from 2.9 to 35.8 deaths per 1000 men in Finland and Estonia, respectively. If based upon an acceptable risk of one in 1000, guideline maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men.

CONCLUSIONS

If low-risk alcohol guidelines were based on an acceptable risk of one in 1000 premature deaths, then maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men, and some of the current European guidelines would require downward revision.

Adjustment for survey non-representativeness using record-linkage: refined estimates of alcohol consumption by deprivation in Scotland

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Analytical approaches to addressing survey non-participation bias typically use only demographic information to improve estimates. We applied a novel methodology which uses health information from data linkage to adjust for non-representativeness. We illustrate the method by presenting adjusted alcohol consumption estimates for Scotland.

DESIGN

Data on consenting respondents to the Scottish Health Surveys (SHeSs) 1995-2010 were linked confidentially to routinely collected hospital admission and mortality records. Synthetic observations representing non-respondents were created using general population data. Multiple imputation was performed to compute adjusted alcohol estimates given a range of assumptions about the missing data. Adjusted estimates of mean weekly consumption were additionally calibrated to per-capita alcohol sales data.

SETTING

Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

13 936 male and 18 021 female respondents to the SHeSs 1995-2010, aged 20-64 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Weekly alcohol consumption, non-, binge- and problem-drinking.

FINDINGS

Initial adjustment for non-response resulted in estimates of mean weekly consumption that were elevated by up to 17.8% [26.5 units (18.6-34.4)] compared with corrections based solely on socio-demographic data [22.5 (17.7-27.3)]; other drinking behaviour estimates were little changed. Under more extreme assumptions the overall difference was up to 53%, and calibrating to sales estimates resulted in up to 88% difference. Increases were especially pronounced among males in deprived areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of routinely collected health data to reduce bias arising from survey non-response resulted in higher alcohol consumption estimates among working-age males in Scotland, with less impact for females. This new method of bias reduction can be generalized to other surveys to improve estimates of alternative harmful behaviours.

Alcohol consumption as a risk factor for tuberculosis: meta-analyses and burden of disease

Meta-analyses of alcohol use, alcohol dosage and alcohol-related problems as risk factors for tuberculosis incidence were undertaken. The global alcohol-attributable tuberculosis burden of disease was also re-estimated.Systematic searches were conducted, reference lists were reviewed and expert consultations were held to identify studies. Cohort and case-control studies were included if there were no temporal violations of exposure and outcome. Risk relations (RRs) were pooled by using categorical and dose-response meta-analyses. The alcohol-attributable tuberculosis burden of disease was estimated by using alcohol-attributable fractions.36 of 1108 studies were included. RRs for alcohol use and alcohol-related problems were 1.35 (95% CI 1.09-1.68; I2: 83%) and 3.33 (95% CI 2.14-5.19; 87%), respectively. Concerning alcohol dosage, tuberculosis risk rose as ethanol intake increased, with evidence of a threshold effect. Alcohol consumption caused 22.02 incident cases (95% CI 19.70-40.77) and 2.35 deaths (95% CI 2.05-4.79) per 100 000 people from tuberculosis in 2014. Alcohol-attributable tuberculosis incidence increased between 2000 and 2014 in most high tuberculosis burden countries, whereas mortality decreased.Alcohol consumption was associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis in all meta-analyses. It was consequently a major contributor to the tuberculosis burden of disease.

The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease-an update

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol use is a major contributor to injuries, mortality and the burden of disease. This review updates knowledge on risk relations between dimensions of alcohol use and health outcomes to be used in global and national Comparative Risk Assessments (CRAs).

METHODS

Systematic review of reviews and meta-analyses on alcohol consumption and health outcomes attributable to alcohol use. For dimensions of exposure: volume of alcohol use, blood alcohol concentration and patterns of drinking, in particular heavy drinking occasions were studied. For liver cirrhosis, quality of alcohol was additionally considered. For all outcomes (mortality and/or morbidity): cause of death and disease/injury categories based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes used in global CRAs; harm to others.

RESULTS

In total, 255 reviews and meta-analyses were identified. Alcohol use was found to be linked causally to many disease and injury categories, with more than 40 ICD-10 three-digit categories being fully attributable to alcohol. Most partially attributable disease categories showed monotonic relationships with volume of alcohol use: the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of disease or death. Exceptions were ischaemic diseases and diabetes, with curvilinear relationships, and with beneficial effects of light to moderate drinking in people without heavy irregular drinking occasions. Biological pathways suggest an impact of heavy drinking occasions on additional diseases; however, the lack of medical epidemiological studies measuring this dimension of alcohol use precluded an in-depth analysis. For injuries, except suicide, blood alcohol concentration was the most important dimension of alcohol use. Alcohol use caused marked harm to others, which has not yet been researched sufficiently.

CONCLUSIONS

Research since 2010 confirms the importance of alcohol use as a risk factor for disease and injuries; for some health outcomes, more than one dimension of use needs to be considered. Epidemiological studies should include measurement of heavy drinking occasions in line with biological knowledge.

Quantifying the contribution of alcohol to cardiomyopathy: A systematic review

Alcohol has a direct toxic impact on the heart, and while there is an ICD code for alcoholic cardiomyopathy, the burden of alcohol-attributable cardiomyopathy is not clear. For the usual estimation of this burden via population-attributable fractions, one would need to determine the risk relationships, i.e., average risk associated with different dimensions of alcohol exposure. The most important among these risk relationships is the dose-response relationship with different levels of average alcohol consumption. To establish risk relationships, we systematically searched for all studies on dose-response relationships, directly and indirectly, via reviews. The results did not permit computation of pooled estimates through meta-analyses. There were clear indications that heavy drinking (≥80 g per day) over several years was linked to high risk of cardiomyopathy, with greater lifetime exposure of alcohol linked to higher risks. Some studies indicated potential effects of patterns of drinking as well. As such, the global quantification of alcohol-attributable cardiomyopathy will have to rely on other methods than those used conventionally.

Quantifying the global contribution of alcohol consumption to cardiomyopathy

Background

The global impact of alcohol consumption on deaths due to cardiomyopathy (CM) has not been quantified to date, even though CM contains a subcategory for alcoholic CM with an effect of heavy drinking over time as the postulated underlying causal mechanism. In this feasibility study, a model to estimate the alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF) of CM deaths based on alcohol exposure measures is proposed.

Methods

A two-step model was developed based on aggregate-level data from 95 countries, including the most populous (data from 2013 or last available year). First, the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM per 1,000,000 adults was predicted using a negative binomial regression based on prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) (n = 52 countries). Second, the proportion of alcoholic CM among all CM deaths (i.e., AAF) was predicted using a fractional response probit regression with alcoholic CM crude mortality rate (from Step 1), AUD prevalence, APC per drinker, and Global Burden of Disease region as predictions. Additional models repeated these steps by sex and for the wider Global Burden of Disease study definition of CM.

Results

There were strong correlations (>0.9) between the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM and the AAFs, supporting the modeling strategy. In the first step, the population-weighted mean crude mortality rate was estimated at 8.4 alcoholic CM deaths per 1,000,000 (95% CI: 7.4–9.3). In the second step, the global AAFs were estimated at 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4–8.4%). Sex-specific figures suggested a lower AAF among females (2.9%, 95% CI: 2.3–3.4%) as compared to males (8.9%, 95% CI: 7.0–10.7%). Larger deviations between observed and predicted AAFs were found in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Conclusions

The model proposed promises to fill the gap to include AAFs for CM into comparative risk assessments in the future. These predictions likely will be underestimates because of the stigma involved in all fully alcohol-attributable conditions and subsequent problems in coding of alcoholic CM deaths.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-017-0137-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Alcohol-attributable cancer deaths under 80 years of age in New Zealand

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Cancer deaths made up 30% of all alcohol-attributable deaths in New Zealanders aged 15-79 years in 2007, more than all other chronic diseases combined. We aimed to estimate alcohol-attributable cancer mortality and years of life lost by cancer site and identify differences between Māori and non-Māori New Zealanders.

DESIGN AND METHODS

We applied the World Health Organization's comparative risk assessment methodology at the level of Māori and non-Māori subpopulations. Proportions of specific alcohol-related cancers attributable to alcohol were calculated by combining alcohol consumption estimates from representative surveys with relative risks from recent meta-analyses. These proportions were applied to both 2007 and 2012 mortality data.

RESULTS

Alcohol consumption was responsible for 4.2% of all cancer deaths under 80 years of age in 2007. An average of 10.4 years of life was lost per person; 12.7 years for Māori and 10.1 years for non-Māori. Half of the deaths were attributable to average consumption of <4 standard drinks per day. Breast cancer comprised 61% of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths in women, and more than one-third of breast cancer deaths were attributable to average consumption of <2 standard drinks per day. Mortality data from 2012 produced very similar findings.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol is an important and modifiable cause of cancer. Risk of cancer increases with higher alcohol consumption, but there is no safe level of drinking. Reduction in population alcohol consumption would reduce cancer deaths. Additional strategies to reduce ethnic disparities in risk and outcome are needed in New Zealand. [Connor J, Kydd R, Maclennan B, Shield K, Rehm J. Alcohol-attributable cancer deaths under 80 years of age in New Zealand. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:415-423].

Coverage of alcohol consumption by national surveys in South Africa

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Evidence suggests that adult per-capita alcohol consumption, as estimated from self-reports of nationally representative surveys, underestimates 'true' consumption, as measured as the sum of recorded and unrecorded consumption. The proportion of total adult alcohol per capita reported in representative surveys is usually labelled 'coverage'. The aim of the present paper was to estimate coverage for South Africa under different scenarios of alcohol use assessment and 'true' consumption.

DESIGN

Five nationally representative surveys from South Africa were used to estimate the prevalence of drinking and the grams per day among current drinkers. All surveys used a complex multi-stage sampling frame that was accounted for by using survey weights. The total (recorded and unrecorded), the recorded and the adjusted total adult per-capita alcohol consumption in South Africa served as different estimates of the 'true' consumption.

SETTING

South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Alcohol use information was assessed on a total of 8115, 16 398 and 13 181 adults (15 years or older) in surveys from the years 2003, 2005 and 2008, respectively. Two surveys in 2012 included 27 070 and 18 688 adults.

MEASUREMENTS

Coverage of the alcohol use reported in the surveys was calculated, compared with the 'true' adult per-capita alcohol.

FINDINGS

The survey data covered between 11.8% [2005; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 9.3-16.2%)] and 19.4% (2003; 95% UI = 14.9-24.2%) of the total alcohol used per capita. The highest coverage of 27.9% (95% UI = 22.4-36.8%) was observed when looking only at recorded alcohol in 2003.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from five nationally representative surveys assessing alcohol use suggests that less than 20% of the total adult per-capita alcohol consumption in South Africa is reported in surveys.

The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease-an update

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol use is a major contributor to injuries, mortality and the burden of disease. This review updates knowledge on risk relations between dimensions of alcohol use and health outcomes to be used in global and national Comparative Risk Assessments (CRAs).

METHODS

Systematic review of reviews and meta-analyses on alcohol consumption and health outcomes attributable to alcohol use. For dimensions of exposure: volume of alcohol use, blood alcohol concentration and patterns of drinking, in particular heavy drinking occasions were studied. For liver cirrhosis, quality of alcohol was additionally considered. For all outcomes (mortality and/or morbidity): cause of death and disease/injury categories based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes used in global CRAs; harm to others.

RESULTS

In total, 255 reviews and meta-analyses were identified. Alcohol use was found to be linked causally to many disease and injury categories, with more than 40 ICD-10 three-digit categories being fully attributable to alcohol. Most partially attributable disease categories showed monotonic relationships with volume of alcohol use: the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of disease or death. Exceptions were ischaemic diseases and diabetes, with curvilinear relationships, and with beneficial effects of light to moderate drinking in people without heavy irregular drinking occasions. Biological pathways suggest an impact of heavy drinking occasions on additional diseases; however, the lack of medical epidemiological studies measuring this dimension of alcohol use precluded an in-depth analysis. For injuries, except suicide, blood alcohol concentration was the most important dimension of alcohol use. Alcohol use caused marked harm to others, which has not yet been researched sufficiently.

CONCLUSIONS

Research since 2010 confirms the importance of alcohol use as a risk factor for disease and injuries; for some health outcomes, more than one dimension of use needs to be considered. Epidemiological studies should include measurement of heavy drinking occasions in line with biological knowledge.

Estimating relative risk of a log-transformed exposure measured in pools

Pooling biospecimens prior to performing laboratory assays is a useful tool to reduce costs, achieve minimum volume requirements and mitigate assay measurement error. When estimating the risk of a continuous, pooled exposure on a binary outcome, specialized statistical techniques are required. Current methods include a regression calibration approach, where the expectation of the individual-level exposure is calculated by adjusting the observed pooled measurement with additional covariate data. While this method employs a linear regression calibration model, we propose an alternative model that can accommodate log-linear relationships between the exposure and predictive covariates. The proposed model permits direct estimation of the relative risk associated with a log-transformation of an exposure measured in pools. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A narrative review of alcohol consumption as a risk factor for global burden of disease

Since the original Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) for alcohol consumption as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 1990, there had been regular updates of CRAs for alcohol from the World Health Organization and/or the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. These studies have become more and more refined with respect to establishing causality between dimensions of alcohol consumption and different disease and mortality (cause of death) outcomes, refining risk relations, and improving the methodology for estimating exposure and alcohol-attributable burden. The present review will give an overview on the main results of the CRAs with respect to alcohol consumption as a risk factor, sketch out new trends and developments, and draw implications for future research and policy.

Economic burden associated with alcohol dependence in a German primary care sample: a bottom-up study

Background

A considerable economic burden has been repeatedly associated with alcohol dependence (AD) – mostly calculated using aggregate data and alcohol-attributable fractions (top-down approach). However, this approach is limited by a number of assumptions, which are hard to test. Thus, cost estimates should ideally be validated with studies using individual data to estimate the same costs (bottom-up approach). However, bottom-up studies on the economic burden associated with AD are lacking. Our study aimed to fill this gap using the bottom-up approach to examine costs for AD, and also stratified the results by the following subgroups: sex, age, diagnostic approach and severity of AD, as relevant variations could be expected by these factors.

Methods

Sample: 1356 primary health care patients, representative for two German regions. AD was diagnosed by a standardized instrument and treating physicians. Individual costs were calculated by combining resource use and productivity data representing a period of six months prior to the time of interview, with unit costs derived from the literature or official statistics. The economic burden associated with AD was determined via excess costs by comparing utilization of various health care resources and impaired productivity between people with and without AD, controlling for relevant confounders. Additional analyses for several AD characteristics were performed.

Results

Mean costs among alcohol dependent patients were 50 % higher compared to the remaining patients, resulting in 1836 € excess costs per alcohol dependent patient in 6 months. More than half of these excess costs incurred through increased productivity loss among alcohol dependent patients. Treatment for alcohol problems represents only 6 % of these costs. The economic burden associated with AD incurred mainly among males and among 30 to 49 year old patients. Both diagnostic approaches were significantly related to the economic burden, while costs increased with alcohol use disorder severity but not with other AD severity indicators.

Conclusions

Our study confirms previous studies using top-down approaches to estimate the economic burden associated with AD. Further, we highlight the need for efforts aimed at preventing adverse outcomes for health and occupational situation associated with alcohol dependence based on factors associated with particularly high economic burden.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3578-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimating average alcohol consumption in the population using multiple sources: the case of Spain

Background

National estimates on per capita alcohol consumption are provided regularly by various sources and may have validity problems, so corrections are needed for monitoring and assessment purposes. Our objectives were to compare different alcohol availability estimates for Spain, to build the best estimate (actual consumption), characterize its time trend during 2001–2011, and quantify the extent to which other estimates (coverage) approximated actual consumption.

Methods

Estimates were: alcohol availability from the Spanish Tax Agency (Tax Agency availability), World Health Organization (WHO availability) and other international agencies, self-reported purchases from the Spanish Food Consumption Panel, and self-reported consumption from population surveys. Analyses included calculating: between-agency discrepancy in availability, multisource availability (correcting Tax Agency availability by underestimation of wine and cider), actual consumption (adjusting multisource availability by unrecorded alcohol consumption/purchases and alcohol losses), and coverage of selected estimates. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Time trends were characterized by joinpoint regression.

Results

Between-agency discrepancy in alcohol availability remained high in 2011, mainly because of wine and spirits, although some decrease was observed during the study period.

The actual consumption was 9.5 l of pure alcohol/person-year in 2011, decreasing 2.3 % annually, mainly due to wine and spirits. 2011 coverage of WHO availability, Tax Agency availability, self-reported purchases, and self-reported consumption was 99.5, 99.5, 66.3, and 28.0 %, respectively, generally with downward trends (last three estimates, especially self-reported consumption). The multisource availability overestimated actual consumption by 12.3 %, mainly due to tourism imbalance.

Conclusions

Spanish estimates of per capita alcohol consumption show considerable weaknesses. Using uncorrected estimates, especially self-reported consumption, for monitoring or other purposes is misleading. To obtain conservative estimates of alcohol-attributable disease burden or heavy drinking prevalence, self-reported consumption should be shifted upwards by more than 85 % (91 % in 2011) of Tax Agency or WHO availability figures. The weaknesses identified can probably also be found worldwide, thus much empirical work remains to be done to improve estimates of per capita alcohol consumption.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-016-0090-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Alcohol Use and Breast Cancer: A Critical Review

The objective of this study was to outline the biological pathways of alcohol-attributable breast cancer, the epidemiological risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer, and the global burden of breast cancer incidence and mortality attributable to alcohol consumption, with a focus on light drinking. First, the literature regarding the biological mechanisms of how alcohol affects the risk of breast cancer was reviewed and summarized. Second, a search of meta-analyses that evaluated the risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was conducted. Last, the burden of alcohol-attributable breast cancer incidence and mortality was estimated by means of a Population-Attributable Fraction methodology. Data on alcohol consumption were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, and data on cancer incidence and mortality were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. Alcohol consumption affects breast cancer risk through the alteration in hormone levels and the associated biological pathways, the metabolism of ethanol resulting in carcinogens, and the inhibition of the one carbon metabolism pathway. The systematic review found 15 meta-analyses on the risk relationship between alcohol consumption (also light consumption) and the risk of breast cancer. All but 2 of these analyses showed a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer. An estimated 144,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 88,000 to 200,000) breast cancer cases and 38,000 (95% CI: 2,400 to 53,000) breast cancer deaths globally in 2012 were attributable to alcohol, with 18.8% of these cases and 17.5% of these deaths affecting women who were light alcohol consumers. All levels of evidence showed a risk relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer, even at low levels of consumption. Due to this strong relationship, and to the amount of alcohol consumed globally, the incidence of and mortality from alcohol-attributable breast cancer is large.

How should prevalence of alcohol use disorders be assessed globally?

Alcohol is a major risk factor for global burden of disease, and alcohol use disorders make up a considerable portion of this burden. Up to now, prevalence of alcohol use disorders has been estimated based on general population surveys with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) as the gold standard for assessment. However, three major problems have been identified with the current conceptualization of alcohol use disorders and its measurement via CIDI: cultural specificity of key criteria measured such as loss of control; lack of convergence of diagnoses identified by CIDI with clinically relevant diagnoses in primary health care; and impact of stigma on measurement. As a solution, it is proposed to measure alcohol use disorders via heavy drinking over time, with thresholds taken from the European Medicines Agency (60 and more grams on average per day of pure alcohol for men, and 40+ grams for women). Current data on level of drinking (per capita consumption) assessed via taxation and other means allow for a measure of less bias. If these thresholds are considered too low and there is more emphasis on need for specialized treatment, then thresholds for very heavy drinking can be taken as alternatively (100+, and 60+ grams per day pure alcohol for men and women, respectively). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A microsimulation cost-utility analysis of alcohol screening and brief intervention to reduce heavy alcohol consumption in Canada

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Screening and brief intervention (SBI) is a public health intervention that has been shown to be effective in reducing heavy alcohol consumption. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing universal alcohol SBI in primary care in Canada.

DESIGN

We developed a microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and its effects on 18 alcohol-related causes of death.

SETTING

The model simulates a Canadian population.

PARTICIPANTS

The model simulates individuals and their alcohol consumption on a continuous scale starting from age 17 years to death.

INTERVENTIONS

The reference case assumes no SBI in Canada. The base case assumes screening was conducted using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) at a threshold score of 8. Additional analyses included evaluating SBI using the AUDIT at threshold scores between 4 and 8 or the Derived Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) at threshold scores between 3 and 7.

MEASUREMENTS

The model estimates the direct health-care costs, life years gained and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained, which are then used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SBI versus no SBI.

FINDINGS

SBI with AUDIT (at a threshold score of 8) had an ICER of $8729/QALY. Our results suggest that using AUDIT thresholds between 8 and 4, inclusive, would be cost-effective for the whole population, as well as for men and women individually. Our results suggest that the AUDIT-C would be cost-effective at thresholds of 7 to 3, inclusive, for men, women and the whole population.

CONCLUSIONS

In Canada, screening and brief intervention via Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and Derived Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) to reduce heavy alcohol consumption appears to be cost-effective for men and women at Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) thresholds of 8 and lower and at Derived Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) thresholds of 7 and lower.

Modelling the impact of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular disease mortality for comparative risk assessments: an overview

BACKGROUND

Although alcohol consumption has long been considered as a risk factor for chronic disease, the relationship to cardiovascular disease (CVD) is complex and involves at least two dimensions: average volume of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking. The objective of this contribution was to estimate the burden of CVD mortality caused by alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Risk assessment modelling with alcohol-attributable CVD mortality as primary outcome. The mortality burden of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke (IS) attributable to alcohol consumption was estimated using attributable-fraction methodology. Relative Risk (RR) data for IHD and IS were obtained from the most comprehensive meta-analyses (except for Russia and surrounding countries where alcohol RR data were obtained from a large cohort study). Age-group specific RRs were calculated, based on large studies. Data on mortality were obtained from the World Health Organization's Global Health Estimates and alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Risk of former drinkers was modelled taking into account global differences in the prevalence of sick quitters among former drinkers. Alcohol-attributable mortality estimates for all other CVD causes except IHD and IS were obtained from the 2014 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health.

RESULTS

An estimated 780,381 CVD deaths (441,893 and 338,490 CVD deaths among men and women respectively) were attributable to alcohol consumption globally in 2012, accounting for 1.4 % of all deaths and 26.6 % of all alcohol-attributable deaths. This is in contrast to the previously estimated 1,128,273 CVD deaths attributable to alcohol consumption globally, and represents a decrease of 30.8 % in alcohol-attributable CVD mortality and of 10.6 % in the global burden of all alcohol-attributable deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

When the most comprehensive and recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses are taken as bases, the net impact of alcohol consumption on CVD is lower than previously estimated.

Temporal changes in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity in Australia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol consumption is an avoidable risk factor for morbidity and mortality. Studies have examined relative risks and outcomes of alcohol-related harms in Australia at discrete times, limiting the ability to examine changes across time. This paper examined alcohol consumption and its contribution to deaths, illness and injury at two time-points, 2001 and 2010.

DESIGN

Alcohol consumption was modelled based on the 2001 and 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, upshifted to reflect alcohol sales data.

SETTING

All data reported are from Australian sources.

MEASUREMENTS

Based on relative risk estimates obtained from meta-analysis, alcohol-attributable fractions were estimated for 42 disease and injury categories in 2001 and 2010 separately for conditions that were not 100% alcohol-attributable. Deaths and hospital separations attributable to alcohol were calculated in 2001 and 2010.

FINDINGS

There was a relatively stable per capita consumption of alcohol across time, with males reporting higher levels of consumption compared with females. While there were increases in the number of abstainers from alcohol across time, the proportion of heavy alcohol consumers also increased. This corresponded with an observed increase in alcohol-attributable burden. For example, alcohol-attributable deaths increased from 4957 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2867-8770] to 5610 (95% CI = 3398-9408) during the study period.

CONCLUSION

The findings demonstrate that there has been an increase in alcohol-attributable harms between 2001 and 2010 in Australia without a corresponding increase in per capita consumption.

Social roles among recruits in Switzerland: Do social roles relate to alcohol use and does role change have an impact?

INTRODUCTION

Young men are likely to report high levels of alcohol use. Previous studies found a reduction in alcohol use when adopting adult social roles. This study examines the frequency of parenthood, partnership and stable employment among young men in Switzerland. It tests whether the alcohol use of those with adult social roles differs from those without and whether changes in social roles relate to changes in alcohol use.

METHODS

Data was available from 5025 men (20.0 years) at baseline (August 2010 to November 2011) and 15 months later. Changes in social roles and their impact on alcohol use were examined in multiple regression models.

RESULTS

At baseline, 15.8% had a job and 4.9% a stable partner, and 1.5% had a child or were expecting one (30.5%, 6.1% and 2.2% at follow-up). Having a partner was associated with a significant decrease in annual frequency of drinking and weekly risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) at follow-up. A higher number of social roles at follow-up was associated with a significant decrease in weekly RSOD. Apart from a significant decrease in weekly RSOD among those remaining in a stable partnership, role development was not found to have significant effects on alcohol use between baseline and follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In Switzerland, an early engagement in permanent social roles is uncommon. Nevertheless, holding single or multiple social roles was commonly associated with reduced alcohol use, although not always significantly so. In western European countries, the engagement in adult social roles is postponed to later ages.

The importance of age groups in estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality: impact on trends in Switzerland between 1997 and 2011

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Monitoring trends of alcohol-attributable mortality is an integral part of the global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol. However, mortality estimates based on different age ranges come to different conclusions. This study examined the impact of including different age ranges in terms of directions of trends of alcohol-attributable mortality during 14 years in Switzerland.

METHOD

Alcohol-attributable mortality was estimated at four time-points between 1997 and 2011 using the Global Burden of Disease 2010 methodology. Estimates were obtained for two age groups: 15-64 years and the total adult population (15 years and older).

RESULTS

Alcohol-attributable mortality among 15-64-year-olds decreased [1997: 1334 deaths, confidence interval (CI) = 1237-1432; 2011: 1019 deaths, CI = 964-1073; trend per year odds ratio (OR) = 0.99, P < 0.001]. In contrast, alcohol-attributable mortality among those 65 and older increased in the same time-period (1997: 581 deaths, CI = -196 to 1357; 2011: 1664 deaths, CI = 957-2372; OR = 1.07, P< 0.001), resulting in an overall increase of alcohol-attributable mortality for 15+ year-olds (1997: 1915 deaths, CI = 1133-2697; 2011: 2683, CI = 1973-3393; OR = 1.02, P < 0.001). The main shift in trends was due to changes in the mixture (e.g. hypertension, ischaemic heart disease) of cardiovascular diseases over time among those 65+ years old.

CONCLUSIONS

Trends in alcohol-attributable mortality may yield qualitatively different results based on the upper age limit for deaths set for these estimates. Global trends of alcohol-attributable mortality between 1997 and 2011 were influenced heavily by changes in the mixture of deaths across cardiovascular diseases. Trends for alcohol-attributable mortality and cross-country comparisons should be reported separately for 15-64 and 65+ year-olds.

Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework

This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Social disparities in hazardous alcohol use: self-report bias may lead to incorrect estimates

BACKGROUND

Self-report bias in surveys of alcohol consumption is widely documented; however, less is known about the distribution of such bias by socioeconomic status (SES) and about the possible impact on social disparities. This study aims to assess social disparities in hazardous drinking (HD) and to analyze how correcting alcohol consumption data for self-report bias may affect estimates of disparities.

METHODS

National survey data from 13 countries, Canada, England, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Spain, Switzerland and USA, are used to examine social disparities in HD by SES and education level. Defining HD as drinking above 3 drinks/day for men and 2 for women, social disparities were assessed by calculating country-level concentration indexes. Aggregate consumption data were used to correct survey-based estimates for self-report bias.

RESULTS

Survey data show that more-educated women are more likely than less-educated women to engage in HD, while the opposite is observed in men in most countries. Large discrepancies in alcohol consumption between survey-based and aggregate estimates were found. Correcting for self-report bias increased estimates of social disparities in women, and decreased them in men, to the point that gradients were reversed in several countries (from higher rates in low education/SES men to an opposite pattern).

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence of a likely misestimation of social disparities in HD, in both men and women, due to self-report bias in alcohol consumption surveys. This study contributes to a better knowledge of the social dimensions of HD and to the targeting of alcohol policies.

The impact of alcohol consumption on African people in 2012: an analysis of burden of disease

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of alcohol consumption on deaths and disability in Africa.

METHODS

We estimated alcohol exposure for 2012, and its impact on deaths and disability in Africa using estimates from the WHO Global Health Estimates for outcome data, and the WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health 2014 for risk relations. We provide a scenario that includes the impact of alcohol on HIV/AIDS incidence, and qualitative predictions on future exposure and harm.

RESULTS

Overall, alcohol consumption has a large impact on burden of disease and mortality in African countries. Alcohol-attributable disease burden is more important when the impact of alcohol consumption on the incidence and course of HIV/AIDS is taken into account, with alcohol being responsible, in 2012, for 6.4% of all deaths and 4.7% of all DALYs lost in the African region. Alcohol exposure is expected to increase in the next years, and thus alcohol-attributable fractions.

CONCLUSIONS

The weight of new evidence, especially of alcohol's role in the incidence and course of HIV/AIDS, is particularly relevant to African countries and points to the need for a strong policy response to reduce the alcohol-related burden of disease on the continent.

Cancer incidence and mortality attributable to alcohol consumption

Alcohol consumption is a major cause of disease and death. In a previous study, we reported that in 2002, 3.6% of all cases of cancer and a similar proportion of cancer deaths were attributable to the consumption of alcohol. We aimed to update these figures to 2012 using global estimates of cancer cases and cancer deaths, data on the prevalence of drinkers from the World Health Organization (WHO) global survey on alcohol and health, and relative risks for alcohol-related neoplasms from a recent meta-analysis. Over the 10-year period considered, the total number of alcohol-attributable cancer cases increased to approximately 770,000 worldwide (5.5% of the total number of cancer cases)-540,000 men (7.2%) and 230,000 women (3.5%). Corresponding figures for cancer deaths attributable to alcohol consumption increased to approximately 480,000 (5.8% of the total number of cancer deaths) in both sexes combined-360,000 (7.8%) men and 120,000 (3.3%) women. These proportions were particularly high in the WHO Western Pacific region, the WHO European region and the WHO South-East Asia region. A high burden of cancer mortality and morbidity is attributable to alcohol, and public health measures should be adopted in order to limit excessive alcohol consumption.

The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model - A Mathematical Description

This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tracking Biases: An Update to the Validity and Reliability of Alcohol Retail Sales Data for Estimating Population Consumption in Scotland

AIMS

To highlight the importance of monitoring biases when using retail sales data to estimate population alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Previously, we identified and where possible quantified sources of bias that may lead to under- or overestimation of alcohol consumption in Scotland. Here, we update findings by using more recent data and by quantifying emergent biases.

RESULTS

Underestimation resulting from the net effect of biases on population consumption in Scotland increased from -4% in 2010 to -7% in 2013.

CONCLUSION

Biases that might impact on the validity and reliability of sales data when estimating population consumption should be routinely monitored and updated.

Russia-specific relative risks and their effects on the estimated alcohol-attributable burden of disease

Background

Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease globally. This burden is estimated using Relative Risk (RR) functions for alcohol from meta-analyses that use data from all countries; however, for Russia and surrounding countries, country-specific risk data may need to be used. The objective of this paper is to compare the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using Russia-specific alcohol RRs with the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using alcohol RRs from meta-analyses.

Methods

Data for 2012 on drinking indicators were calculated based on the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Data for 2012 on mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost by cause were obtained by country from the World Health Organization. Alcohol Population-Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on a risk modelling methodology from Russia. These PAFs were compared to PAFs calculated using methods applied for all other countries. The 95 % Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the alcohol PAFs were calculated using a Monte Carlo-like method.

Results

Using Russia-specific alcohol RR functions, in Russia in 2012 alcohol caused an estimated 231,900 deaths (95 % UI: 185,600 to 278,200) (70,800 deaths among women and 161,100 deaths among men) and 13,295,000 DALYs lost (95 % UI: 11,242,000 to 15,348,000) (3,670,000 DALYs lost among women and 9,625,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age. This compares to an estimated 165,600 deaths (95 % UI: 97,200 to 228,100) (29,700 deaths among women and 135,900 deaths among men) and 10,623,000 DALYs lost (95 % UI: 7,265,000 to 13,754,000) (1,783,000 DALYs lost among women and 8,840,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age caused by alcohol when non-Russia-specific alcohol RRs were used.

Conclusions

Results indicate that if the Russia-specific RRs are used when estimating the health burden attributable to alcohol consumption in Russia, then the total estimated burden will be more than if RRs from meta-analyses are used. Furthermore, additional research is needed to understand which aspects of the Russian style of drinking cause the most harm.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1818-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimates of alcohol-related oesophageal cancer burden in Japan: systematic review and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVE

To refine estimates of the burden of alcohol-related oesophageal cancer in Japan.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for published reviews and original studies on alcohol intake, aldehyde dehydrogenase polymorphisms, and risk for oesophageal cancer in Japan, published before 2014. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses, including subgroup analyses by aldehyde dehydrogenase variants. We estimated deaths and loss of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from oesophageal cancer using exposure distributions for alcohol based on age, sex and relative risks per unit of exposure.

FINDINGS

We identified 14 relevant studies. Three cohort studies and four case-control studies had dose-response data. Evidence from cohort studies showed that people who consumed the equivalent of 100 g/day of pure alcohol had an 11.71 fold, (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.67-51.32) risk of oesophageal cancer compared to those who never consumed alcohol. Evidence from case-control studies showed that the increase in risk was 33.11 fold (95% CI: 8.15-134.43) in the population at large. The difference by study design is explained by the 159 fold (95% CI: 27.2-938.2) risk among those with an inactive aldehyde dehydrogenase enzyme variant. Applying these dose-response estimates to the national profile of alcohol intake yielded 5279 oesophageal cancer deaths and 102,988 DALYs lost - almost double the estimates produced by the most recent global burden of disease exercise.

CONCLUSION

Use of global dose-response data results in an underestimate of the burden of disease from oesophageal cancer in Japan. Where possible, national burden of disease studies should use results from the population concerned.

Life course trajectories of alcohol consumption in the United Kingdom using longitudinal data from nine cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption patterns change across life and this is not fully captured in cross-sectional series data. Analysis of longitudinal data, with repeat alcohol measures, is necessary to reveal changes within the same individuals as they age. Such data are scarce and few studies are able to capture multiple decades of the life course. Therefore, we examined alcohol consumption trajectories, reporting both average weekly volume and frequency, using data from cohorts with repeated measures that cover different and overlapping periods of life.

METHODS

Data were from nine UK-based prospective cohorts with at least three repeated alcohol consumption measures on individuals (combined sample size of 59,397 with 174,666 alcohol observations), with data spanning from adolescence to very old age (90 years plus). Information on volume and frequency of drinking were harmonised across the cohorts. Predicted volume of alcohol by age was estimated using random effect multilevel models fitted to each cohort. Quadratic and cubic polynomial terms were used to describe non-linear age trajectories. Changes in drinking frequency by age were calculated from observed data within each cohort and then smoothed using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing. Models were fitted for men and women separately.

RESULTS

We found that, for men, mean consumption rose sharply during adolescence, peaked at around 25 years at 20 units per week, and then declined and plateaued during mid-life, before declining from around 60 years. A similar trajectory was seen for women, but with lower overall consumption (peak of around 7 to 8 units per week). Frequent drinking (daily or most days of the week) became more common during mid to older age, most notably among men, reaching above 50% of men.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first attempt to synthesise longitudinal data on alcohol consumption from several overlapping cohorts to represent the entire life course and illustrates the importance of recognising that this behaviour is dynamic. The aetiological findings from epidemiological studies using just one exposure measure of alcohol, as is typically done, should be treated with caution. Having a better understanding of how drinking changes with age may help design intervention strategies.

Geographical distribution of alcohol-attributable mortality in Chile: a Bayesian spatial analysis

OBJECTIVE

To describe the distribution of alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM) at the local level (345 municipalities) in Chile, including fully and partially attributable causes in 2009.

METHODS

AAM was estimated for the population 15years of age and older using per capita alcohol consumption combined with survey estimates. The effect of alcohol on each cause of death was extracted from the published scientific literature. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to smooth the Standardized Mortality Ratio for each municipality for six groups of causes related to alcohol consumption (total, neuro-psychiatric, cardiovascular, cancer, injuries and other causes).

RESULTS

The percentage of municipalities with high risk for any group of causes in each region ranges from 0% to 87.0%. Municipalities with high risk were concentrated in south-central and southern Chile for all groups of causes related to alcohol.

CONCLUSIONS

AAM risk shows marked geographic concentrations, mainly in south-central and southern regions of Chile. This combination of methods for small-area estimates of AAM is a powerful tool to identify high risk regions and associated factors, and may be used to inform local policies and programs.