Ranking 93 health interventions for low- and middle-income countries by cost-effectiveness

Common Goods for Health: Economic Rationale and Tools for Prioritization

This paper presents the economic rationale for treating Common Goods for Health (CGH) as priorities for public intervention. We use the concept of market failure as a central argument for identifying CGH and apply cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) as a normative tool to prioritize CGH interventions in public finance decisions. We show that CGH are consistent with traditional lists of public health core functions but cannot be identified separately from non-CGH activities in such lists. We propose a public finance decision tree, adapted from existing health economics tools, to identify CGH activities within the set of cost-effective interventions for the health sector. We test the framework by applying it to the 2018 Disease Control Priority (DCP) list of interventions recommended for public funding and find that less than 10% of cost-effective interventions unconditionally qualify as CGH, while another two-thirds may or may not qualify depending on context and form. We conclude that while CEA can be used as a tool to prioritize CGH, the scarcity of such analyses for CGH interventions may be partly responsible for the lack of priority given to them. We encourage further research to address methodological and resource challenges to assessing the cost-effectiveness of CGH intervention packages, in particular those involving large investments and long-term benefits.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Cost-effectiveness of a fixed-dose combination pill for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and South Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Fewer than 25% of patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in countries of low and middle income (LMICs) use guideline-directed drugs for secondary prevention. A fixed-dose combination polypill might improve cardiovascular outcomes by increasing prescription rates and adherence, but the cost-effectiveness of this approach is uncertain.

METHODS

We developed microsimulation models to assess the cost-effectiveness of a polypill containing aspirin, lisinopril, atenolol, and simvastatin for secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease compared with current care in China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and South Africa. We modelled baseline use of secondary prevention drugs on the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological study. In the intervention arm, we assumed that patients currently prescribed any prevention drug for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease would receive the polypill instead, which would improve adherence by 32% (from a meta-analysis of two randomised trials in LMICs). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of the polypill at prices in the public sector and on the retail market. Key outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke) over a 5-year period and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) from the perspective of the health-care sector and a lifetime analytical horizon. We assumed a cost-effectiveness threshold equal to each country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the population health effect achievable by increasing the uptake of the polypill in the eligible population.

FINDINGS

Among adults aged 30-84 years with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, adoption of the polypill for secondary prevention compared with current care was projected to avert 40-54 major adverse cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated for 5 years and produce between three and ten additional serious adverse events. Assuming public-sector pharmaceutical prices, the ICER of the polypill compared with current care over a lifetime analytical horizon was Int$168 (95% UI 55 to 337) per DALY averted in China, $154 (57 to 289) in India, $88 (15 to 193) in Mexico, $364 (147 to 692) in Nigeria, and $64 (cost-saving to 203) in South Africa, amounting to 0·4-6·2% of the per capita GDP in these countries. The ICER of the polypill compared with current care increased to 3·3-14·6% of the per capita GDP at retail market pharmaceutical prices. Use of the polypill at current rates of prescription of secondary prevention drugs would produce modest health benefits, reducing DALYs from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among patients with established disease by 3·1-10·1% over 10 years. Increasing use to 50% or 75% of the eligible population would produce substantially larger health gains (up to 24·3% atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease DALYs averted).

INTERPRETATION

The polypill is projected to be cost-effective compared with current care for secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and South Africa, particularly if it is made available at public-sector pricing. However, achieving meaningful improvements in cardiovascular health will require simultaneous investments in health infrastructure to increase the uptake of the polypill among patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

FUNDING

Richard A and Susan F Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology, Hellman Family Foundation, Department of Veterans Affairs, and University of California at San Francisco.

Can cost-effectiveness results be combined into a coherent league table? Case study from one high-income country

BACKGROUND

Doubts exist around the value of compiling league tables for cost-effectiveness results for health interventions, primarily due to methods differences. We aimed to determine if a reasonably coherent league table could be compiled using published studies for one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Literature searches were conducted to identify NZ-relevant studies published in the peer-reviewed journal literature between 1 January 2010 and 8 October 2017. Only studies with the following metrics were included: cost per quality-adjusted life-year or disability-adjusted life-year or life-year (QALY/DALY/LY). Key study features were abstracted and a summary league table produced which classified the studies in terms of cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 21 cost-effectiveness studies which met the inclusion criteria were identified. There were some large methodological differences between the studies, particularly in the time horizon (1 year to lifetime) but also discount rates (range 0 to 10%). Nevertheless, we were able to group the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) into general categories of being reported as cost-saving (19%), cost-effective (71%), and not cost-effective (10%). The median ICER (adjusted to 2017 NZ$) was ~ $5000 per QALY/DALY/LY (~US$3500). However, for some interventions, there is high uncertainty around the intervention effectiveness and declining adherence over time.

CONCLUSIONS

It seemed possible to produce a reasonably coherent league table for the ICER values from different studies (within broad groupings) in this high-income country. Most interventions were cost-effective and a fifth were cost-saving. Nevertheless, study methodologies did vary widely and researchers need to pay more attention to using standardised methods that allow their results to be included in future league tables.

Economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs

OBJECTIVE

To provide a systematic review of economic evaluations that has been conducted for onchocerciasis interventions, to summarise current key knowledge and to identify research gaps.

METHOD

A systematic review of the literature was conducted on the 8th of August 2018 using the PubMed (MEDLINE) and ISI Web of Science electronic databases. No date or language stipulations were applied to the searches.

RESULTS

We identified 14 primary studies reporting the results of economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions, seven of which were cost-effectiveness analyses. The studies identified used a variety of different approaches to estimate the costs of the investigated interventions/programmes. Originally, the studies only quantified the benefits associated with preventing blindness. Gradually, methods improved and also captured onchocerciasis-associated skin disease. Studies found that eliminating onchocerciasis would generate billions in economic benefits. The majority of the cost-effectiveness analyses evaluated annual mass drug administration (MDA). The estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted of annual MDA varies between US$3 and US$30 (cost year variable).

CONCLUSIONS

The cost benefit and cost effectiveness of onchocerciasis interventions have consistently been found to be very favourable. This finding provides strong evidential support for the ongoing efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis from endemic areas. Although these results are very promising, there are several important research gaps that need to be addressed as we move towards the 2020 milestones and beyond.

Innovative Models in Mental Health Delivery Systems: Task Sharing Care with Non-specialist Providers to Close the Mental Health Treatment Gap

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Most people do not have access to adequate mental health care, and lack of skilled human resources is a major factor. We provide a narrative review of approaches to implementing task sharing-engaging non-specialist providers-to deliver mental health care.

RECENT FINDINGS

There is strong evidence both for the effectiveness of task sharing as a means of delivering care for a range of conditions across settings and for the effectiveness of non-specialist providers and health workers in delivering elements of culturally adapted psychosocial and psychological interventions for common and severe mental disorders. Key approaches to facilitate task sharing of care include balanced care, collaborative care, sustained training and supervision, use of trans-diagnostic interventions based on a dimensional approach to wellness and illness, and the use of emerging digital technologies. Non-specialist providers and health workers are well positioned to deliver evidence-based interventions for mental disorders, and a variety of delivery approaches can support, facilitate, and sustain this innovation. These approaches should be used, and evaluated, to increase access to mental health services.

Benefits of supplementation with multiple micronutrients in pregnancy

A task force was convened by the New York Academy of Sciences to evaluate new evidence that was not available at the time of, and to help countries interpret, recent World Health Organization guidelines for nutrition interventions in pregnancy as they relate to multiple micronutrient supplementation. The report of the task force is published in a recent special issue of Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Here, we provide a short introduction to the special issue.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based screening and treatment of moderate acute malnutrition in Mali

Introduction

Moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) causes substantial child morbidity and mortality, accounting for 4.4% of deaths and 6.0% of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost among children under 5 each year. There is growing consensus on the need to provide appropriate treatment of MAM, both to reduce associated morbidity and mortality and to halt its progression to severe acute malnutrition. We estimated health outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of four dietary supplements for MAM treatment in children 6–35 months of age in Mali.

Methods

We conducted a cluster-randomised MAM treatment trial to describe nutritional outcomes of four dietary supplements for the management of MAM: ready-to-use supplementary foods (RUSF; PlumpySup); a specially formulated corn–soy blend (CSB) containing dehulled soybean flour, maize flour, dried skimmed milk, soy oil and a micronutrient pre-mix (CSB++; Super Cereal Plus); Misola, a locally produced, micronutrient-fortified, cereal–legume blend (MI); and locally milled flour (LMF), a mixture of millet, beans, oil and sugar, with a separate micronutrient powder. We used a decision tree model to estimate long-term outcomes and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing the health and economic outcomes of each strategy.

Results

Compared to no MAM treatment, MAM treatment with RUSF, CSB++, MI and LMF reduced the risk of death by 15.4%, 12.7%, 11.9% and 10.3%, respectively. The ICER was US$9821 per death averted (2015 USD) and US$347 per DALY averted for RUSF compared with no MAM treatment.

Conclusion

MAM treatment with RUSF is cost-effective across a wide range of willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Trial registration

NCT01015950.

The Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of a District-Strengthening Strategy to Mitigate the 3 Delays to Quality Maternal Health Care: Results From Uganda and Zambia

A comprehensive district-strengthening approach to address maternal and newborn health was estimated to cost US$177 per life-year gained in Uganda and $206 per life-year gained in Zambia. The approach represents a very cost-effective health investment compared to GDP per capita.

The primary objective of this study was to estimate the costs and the incremental cost-effectiveness of maternal and newborn care associated with the Saving Mothers, Giving Life (SMGL) initiative—a comprehensive district-strengthening approach addressing the 3 delays associated with maternal mortality—in Uganda and Zambia. To assess effectiveness, we used a before-after design comparing facility outcome data from 2012 (before) and 2016 (after). To estimate costs, we used unit costs collected from comparison districts in 2016 coupled with data on health services utilization from 2012 in SMGL-supported districts to estimate the costs before the start of SMGL. We collected data from health facilities, ministerial health offices, and implementing partners for the year 2016 in 2 SMGL-supported districts in each country and in 3 comparison non-SMGL districts (2 in Zambia, 1 in Uganda). Incremental costs for maternal and newborn health care per SMGL-supported district in 2016 was estimated to be US$845,000 in Uganda and $760,000 in Zambia. The incremental cost per delivery was estimated to be $38 in Uganda and $95 in Zambia. For the districts included in this study, SMGL maternal and newborn health activities were associated with approximately 164 deaths averted in Uganda and 121 deaths averted in Zambia in 2016 compared to 2012. In Uganda, the cost per death averted was $10,311, or $177 per life-year gained. In Zambia, the cost per death averted was $12,514, or $206 per life-year gained. The SMGL approach can be very cost-effective, with the cost per life-year gained as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) being 25.6% and 16.4% in Uganda and Zambia, respectively. In terms of affordability, the SMGL approach could be paid for by increasing health spending from 7.3% to 7.5% of GDP in Uganda and from 5.4% to 5.8% in Zambia.

Private and social time preference for health outcomes: A general population survey in Iran

Despite the recent increase in economic evaluations of health care programs in low and middle income countries, there is still a surprising gap in evidence on the appropriate discount rate and the discounting of health outcomes such as quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Our study aimed to calculate the implied time preference rate for health outcomes in Iran and its key determinants. Data were gathered from one family member from each of the 650 households randomly selected in Tehran. The respondents’ private and social preferences for health outcomes were calculated using the time trade-off (TTO) technique based on the discounted utility model. We investigated the main assumptions of the discounted utility model through equality of mean comparison, and the association between private time preference and key socio-economic determinants using multilevel regression analysis. The mean and median implied rates were 5.8% and 4.9% for private time preference and 25.6% and 20% for social time preference respectively. Our study confirmed that magnitude, framing and time effects have a significant impact on implied discount rates, which means that the conventional discounted utility model’s main assumptions are violated in the Iranian general population. Other models of discounting which apply lower rates for far health outcomes might provide a more sensible solution to discounting health interventions with long-term impacts.

Pharmaceutical expenditure and gross domestic product: Evidence of simultaneous effects using a two-step instrumental variables strategy

This paper estimates the income elasticity of government pharmaceutical spending and assesses the simultaneous effect of such spending on gross domestic product (GDP). Using a panel dataset for 136 countries from 1995 to 2006, we employ a two-step instrumental variable procedure where we first estimate the effect of GDP on public pharmaceutical expenditure using tourist receipts as an instrument for GDP. In the second step, we construct an adjusted pharmaceutical expenditure series where the response of public pharmaceutical expenditure to GDP is partialled out and use this endogeneity adjusted series as an instrument for pharmaceutical expenditure. Our estimations show that GDP has a strong positive impact on pharmaceutical spending with elasticity in excess of unity in countries with low spending on pharmaceuticals and countries with large economic freedom. In the second step, we find that when the quantitatively large reverse effect of GDP is accounted for, public pharmaceutical spending has a negative effect on GDP per capita particularly in countries with limited economic freedom.

Richer, wiser and in better health? The socioeconomic gradient in hypertension prevalence, unawareness and control in South Africa

The socioeconomic gradient in chronic conditions is clear in the poorest and wealthiest of countries, but extant evidence on this relationship in low- and middle-income countries is inconclusive. We use data gathered between 2008 and 2012 from a nationally representative sample of over 10,000 South African adults, and objective health measures to analyse the differential effects of education, income and other factors on the prevalence of hypertension, individuals' awareness and control of hypertensive status. Prevalence of hypertension is high at 38% among women and 34% among men. 59% of hypertensive individuals are unaware of their status. We find prevalence and unawareness of hypertension are a public health concern across all income groups in South Africa. Higher income is however associated with effective control amongst men. Completing secondary education is associated with 7 mmHg lower blood pressure only in a small sub-group of women but is associated with 22 percentage point higher likelihood of effective hypertension control amongst women. We conclude that poorer and less educated individuals are particularly at high risk of cardiovascular disease in South Africa.

Economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs

In 2000, the World Health Organization established the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF), with the goal of eliminating the disease as a public health problem by 2020. Since the start of the programme, a cumulative total of 6.2 billion treatments have been delivered to affected populations - with more than 556 million people treated in 2015 alone. In this paper, we perform a rigorous systematic review of the economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions have been conducted. We demonstrate that the standard interventions to control lymphatic filariasis are consistently found to be highly cost-effective. This finding has important implications for advocacy groups and potential funders. However, there are several important inconsistencies and research gaps that need to be addressed as we move forward towards the 2020 elimination goals. One of the most important identified research gaps was a lack of evaluation of new interventions specifically targeting areas co-endemic with onchocerciasis and Loa loa - which could become a major barrier to achieving elimination.