Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Polyamines serum levels in episodic and chronic migraine

Background: Previous studies focused on food as the trigger of a migraine attack did not consider polyamines as possible activators and sensitizers of the trigeminal-vascular system through their interaction with NMDA glutamate receptors. Therefore, this study aimed to assess serum levels of nine polyamines and to evaluate their role as possible triggers and crisis maintainers in episodic and chronic migraine patients. Materials and methods: The study included 50 patients with episodic migraine (EM), 50 patients with chronic migraine (CM) and 50 healthy controls (HC). Serum levels of nine polyamines have been determined by Liquid Chromatography tandem Mass Spectrometry. Specifically, agmatine, spermidine, spermine, putrescine, cadaverine, arginine, ornithine, citrulline and lysine levels were studied. Results: Agmatine serum levels resulted reduced in EC patients with respect to CM and HC. Compared to HC subjects, serum levels of spermine and spermidine were statistically significantly increased both in CM and EM patients. Conclusions: The authors suggest that alterations of polyamines levels might contribute to the understanding of migraine external activation and help to clarify the potential role of NMDA receptor polyamines site antagonists in migraine treatment.

Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: a spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy

BACKGROUND

Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access.

RESULTS

We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children.

CONCLUSIONS

Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas.

Determination of Major Endogenous FAHFAs in Healthy Human Circulation: The Correlations with Several Circulating Cardiovascular-Related Biomarkers and Anti-Inflammatory Effects on RAW 264.7 Cells

Fatty acid esters of hydroxy fatty acids (FAHFAs) are newly discovered long-chain fatty acids. However, the major endogenous FAHFAs in healthy human circulation, their correlation with cardiovascular (CV) biomarkers, and their anti-inflammatory effects have not been investigated and remain unclear. In the present study, a total of 57 healthy subjects were recruited. Liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC-MS) was developed for the simultaneous determination of seven FAHFAs, four long-chain fatty acids, and four non-traditional circulating CV-related biomarkers. We found two major types of FAHFAs in healthy human circulation, palmitoleic acid ester of 9-hydroxystearic acid (9-POHSA), and oleic acid ester of 9-hydroxystearic acid (9-OAHSA). Both 9-POHSA and 9-OAHSA had a strong positive correlation with each other and were negatively correlated with fasting blood glucose, S-adenosyl-l-homocysteine (SAH), and trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO), but not with l-homocysteine. 9-POHSA was also positively correlated with l-carnitine. Moreover, we confirmed that both 9-POHSA and 9-OAHSA exhibited an anti-inflammatory effect by suppressing LPS stimulated cytokines, including IL-1β and IL-6 in RAW 264.7 cells. In addition, palmitoleic acid also had a positive correlation with 9-POHSA and 9-OAHSA. As far as we know, this is the first report showing the major endogenous FAHFAs in healthy subjects and their CV protection potential which might be correlated with SAH and TMAO reduction, l-Carnitine elevation, and their anti-inflammatory effects.

Current Tobacco Smoking Prevalence Among Iranian Population: A Closer Look at the STEPS Surveys

Objectives: To determine the current tobacco smoking prevalence among Iranian adults, its geographical distribution in 2011, 2016, and time trend during 2004-2016.

Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of the published reports of 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and the data of 2011 and 2016 of the STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk-factor surveillance (STEPS) surveys.

Results: The prevalence of current tobacco smoking and current daily cigarette smoking in 2016 was 14.1 and 9.7%, respectively. Only 0.2% of participants smoked water-pipe. Current tobacco smoking prevalence remained unchanged during 2004-2016 for both men and women. The prevalence of passive smoking at home or workplace was 27.4%. Current tobacco smoking prevalence and current daily cigarette smoking was significantly lower among women than men. Current tobacco smoking prevalence showed a geographical pattern throughout the country. In both 2011 and 2016, current tobacco smoking prevalence was higher among men who lived in the western provinces, especially the north-west, than those who lived in the eastern and southern provinces.

Conclusions: The current tobacco smoking prevalence among Iranian population has not changed significantly during 2004-2016 and does not conform to the international guidelines. Therefore, it remains crucial yet challenging that effective nationwide policies be implemented to reduce the use of tobacco products. One cannot hope for any reductions in smoking prevalence until a cocktail of interventions are built around strong commitment to government policy.

A Meta-Regression Analysis of Utility Weights for Breast Cancer: The Power of Patients' Experience

To summarize utility estimates of breast cancer and to assess the relative impacts of study characteristics on predicting breast cancer utilities. We searched Medline, Embase, RISS, and KoreaMed from January 1996 to April 2019 to find literature reporting utilities for breast cancer. Thirty-five articles were identified, reporting 224 utilities. A hierarchical linear model was used to conduct a meta-regression that included disease stages, assessment methods, respondent type, age of the respondents, and scale bounds as explanatory variables. The utility for early and late-stage breast cancer, as estimated by using the time-tradeoff with the scales anchored by death to perfect health with non-patients, were 0.742 and 0.525, respectively. The severity of breast cancer, assessment method, and respondent type were significant predictors of utilities, but the age of the respondents and bounds of the scale were not. Patients who experienced the health states valued 0.142 higher than did non-patients (P <0.001). Besides the disease stage, the respondent type had the highest impact on breast cancer utility.

Air Pollution Measurements and Land-Use Regression in Urban Sub-Saharan Africa Using Low-Cost Sensors—Possibilities and Pitfalls

Air pollution is recognized as the most important environmental factor that adversely affects human and societal wellbeing. Due to rapid urbanization, air pollution levels are increasing in the Sub-Saharan region, but there is a shortage of air pollution monitoring. Hence, exposure data to use as a base for exposure modelling and health effect assessments is also lacking. In this study, low-cost sensors were used to assess PM2.5 (particulate matter) levels in the city of Adama, Ethiopia. The measurements were conducted during two separate 1-week periods. The measurements were used to develop a land-use regression (LUR) model. The developed LUR model explained 33.4% of the variance in the concentrations of PM2.5. Two predictor variables were included in the final model, of which both were related to emissions from traffic sources. Some concern regarding influential observations remained in the final model. Long-term PM2.5 and wind direction data were obtained from the city’s meteorological station, which should be used to validate the representativeness of our sensor measurements. The PM2.5 long-term data were however not reliable. Means of obtaining good reference data combined with longer sensor measurements would be a good way forward to develop a stronger LUR model which, together with improved knowledge, can be applied towards improving the quality of health. A health impact assessment, based on the mean level of PM2.5 (23 µg/m3), presented the attributable burden of disease and showed the importance of addressing causes of these high ambient levels in the area.

Regularity of Clinical Visits and Medication Adherence of Patients with Hypertension or Diabetes in Rural Yunnan Province of China

Chronic diseases can be controlled through effective self-management. The purpose of this study is to explore the regularity of clinical visits and medication adherence of patients with hypertension or diabetes (PWHD), and its association with the first experience with care and individual factors in rural Southwestern China. This cross-sectional study was carried out in Yunnan province in 2018 and recruited 292 PWHD and 122 village clinics from 122 villages in 10 counties. Participants were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Results show around 39% of hypertensive and 25% of diabetic patients neither visited physicians nor took medicine regularly during the preceding three months of the interview date. The regression results further indicated that individual characteristics of the PWHD, including patient age, health status, and economic level, as well as their first experience with care, were significantly associated with their regular healthcare behavior. In addition to providing medical services, on average each sample village clinic, with around two physicians, simultaneously managed 180 hypertensive and 45 diabetic patients. This study revealed the need for further reforms in terms of improving self-management and thus recommends an increase in the quantity and the quality of human resources in the primary healthcare realm in rural China.

Contributions to the literature on violence and health in 25 years of the Brazilian public health Ciência & Saúde Coletiva

The authors conducted a literature review on the theme of violence and health published in the Brazilian public health journal "Ciência & Saúde Coletiva" (C&SC) from 1996 to 2019. The search also included two other Brazilian journals, "Cadernos de Saúde Pública" (CSP) and "Revista de Saúde Pública" (RSP) and two international journals, the "American Journal of Public Health" (AJPH) and the "Pan American Journal of Public Health" (PAJPH), totaling 1,179 articles. The analysis aggregated each journal's material in eleven themes, based on conceptual affinity. For the articles from C&SC, the authors analyzed variables such as year of publication, area of knowledge, institution's region, study scope, methodology, and target population. The analysis found that C&SC gave visibility to violence and health, standing out from the other journals since 2009. External causes, children and adolescents, quantitative studies, municipal and national scope, and institutions located in the Southeast region of Brazil predominated. There are gaps in topics such as self-mutilation and vulnerable populations, among other areas where more studies and publications should be encouraged.

Cognitive Functioning, Life Satisfaction, and Their Relationship with the Financial Attitudes of Older Individuals Who Participate in an Active Aging Program

Life expectancy has increased in many countries throughout the world over recent years, leading to new challenges related to aging. A large part of the population is over 60 years old, and therefore studies that focus on financial autonomy and active aging are necessary. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between cognitive functioning and life satisfaction in relation to financial attitudes in a sample of 251 elderly adults (71% women) participating in an active aging program (M = 67.5, SD = 4.5). We used the Mini-Mental State Examination, the Satisfaction with Life scale, and a questionnaire about financial attitudes to gather data. Our results show that cognitive functioning and life satisfaction are related to certain financial attitudes. We also observed differences associated with gender, education level, and financial independence. According to our findings, life satisfaction should be taken into account when the financial attitudes of older adults are evaluated. The importance of support groups for the elderly is highlighted as well as of all those recreation and health programs, since they constitute a means of promoting well-being.

Fatty Acids and Cardiovascular Risk. Evidence, Lack of Evidence, and Diligence

One of the most controversial areas of nutrition research relates to fats, particularly essential fatty acids, in the context of cardiovascular disease risk. A critical feature of dietary fatty acids is that they incorporate into the plasma membrane, modifying fluidity and key physiological functions. Importantly, they can reshape the bioavailability of eicosanoids and other lipid mediators, which direct cellular responses to external stimuli, such as inflammation and chronic stress conditions. This paper provides an overview of the most recent evidence, as well as historical controversies, linking fat consumption with human health and disease. We underscore current pitfalls in the area of fatty acid research and critically frame fatty acid intake in the larger context of diet and behavior. We conclude that fundamental research on fatty acids and lipids is appropriate in certain areas, but the rigor and reproducibility are lacking in others. The pros and cons are highlighted throughout the review, seeking to guide future research on the important area of nutrition, fat intake, and cardiovascular disease risk.

Face mask exemptions, psychiatric patients, and COVID-19

It has been compulsory to wear face masks in all public spaces, both indoor and outdoor, since May 21, 2020 throughout Spain [1], a measure intended to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, there are some exceptions to this rule, including "… People for whom the use of a mask is inadvisable for duly justified health reasons, or who, due to their disability or dependency, present behavioural alterations that make its use unviable."

Increased prevalence of pfdhfr and pfdhps mutations associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Jazan Region, Southwestern Saudi Arabia: important implications for malaria treatment policy

Background

Despite significant progress in eliminating malaria from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the disease is still endemic in the southwestern region of the country. Artesunate plus sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (AS + SP) has been used in Saudi Arabia since 2007 as a first-line treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of mutations associated with resistance to artemisinin and sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (SP) resistance in P. falciparum parasites circulating in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia.

Methods

A total of 151 P. falciparum isolates were collected between April 2018 and March 2019 from 12 of the governorates in Jazan region. Genomic DNA was extracted from dried blood spots and amplified using nested PCR. Polymorphisms in the propeller domain of the P. falciparum k13 (pfkelch13) gene and point mutations in the P. falciparum dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr) and dihydropteroate synthase (pfdhps) genes were identified by sequencing.

Results

No mutations in the pfkelch13 propeller domain were found in any of the 151 isolates. However, point mutations in the pfdhfr and pfdhps genes were detected in 90.7% (137/151) of the isolates. The pfdhfr double mutations N51I + S108N (i.e. ACICNI haplotype) and triple mutations N51I + C59R + S108N (i.e. ACIRNI haplotype) were detected in 47% and 37.8% of the isolates, respectively. Moreover, the pfdhps single mutation at codon A437G and double mutations A437G + K540E (i.e. SGEAAI haplotype) were observed in 4.6% and 51.7% of the isolates, respectively. Interestingly, 23.8%, 25.1 and 12.6% of the isolates had quintuple, quadruple and triple mutated combined pfdhfr–pfdhps genotypes, respectively. Furthermore, significant associations were found between the prevalence of mutant haplotypes and the age, gender and nationality of the patients (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

This study revealed a high prevalence of point mutations in the pfdhfr and pfdhps genes of P. falciparum isolates from Jazan region, with quintuple and quadruple mutant pfdhfr–pfdhps genotypes reported for the first time in Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula. Despite the absence of the pfkelch13 mutation in the isolates examined, the pfdhfr and pfdhps mutations undermine the efficacy of SP partner drug, thereby threatening the main falciparum malaria treatment policy in Saudi Arabia, i.e. the use of AS + SP. Therefore, the continuous molecular and in-vivo monitoring of ACT efficacy in Jazan region is highly recommended.

Occult pulmonary arterial hypertension in patients with previous pulmonary tuberculosis

Background

Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) still causes a significant public healthcare burden. Despite successful treatment, TB can lead to permanent lung damage and pulmonary hypertension (PH). PH can also occur in the absence of significant lung damage, leading clinicians to question whether pulmonary TB may cause pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), an entity that has not been otherwise described.

Objectives

To determine the prevalence of PAH in patients previously treated for TB.

Methods

We recruited 20 participants who were previously treated for TB and had no other underlying risk factors for the development of PH. The participants underwent electrocardiography (ECG), chest radiography, lung function tests and echocardiography (ECHO). Data from these non-invasive investigations were evaluated to determine findings that were suggestive of PH.

Results

At a median duration of 30 months from diagnosis of TB, no participant had echocardiography findings that were suggestive of PH (pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) ≥40 mmHg). However, there was a negative correlation between the time from diagnosis and right ventricular dysfunction assessed by measuring a tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (r=–0.5136; p=0.0205). Furthermore, one-third of the participants (n=7) had one or more ECG features supporting PH and 85% of the participants (n=17) demonstrated at least one chest X-ray (CXR) feature of PH.

Conclusion

Although our study did not demonstrate ECHO findings supporting PH, ECG and CXR modalities were suggestive. Therefore, future studies consisting of larger cohorts and including the use of other sensitive modalities such as computed tomography are warranted. Moreover, these studies will need to determine whether the entity of PAH secondary to previously treated pulmonary TB exists.

Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

To contribute to the WHO initiative, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight, an assessment of global vision impairment in 2020 and temporal change is needed. We aimed to extensively update estimates of global vision loss burden, presenting estimates for 2020, temporal change over three decades between 1990-2020, and forecasts for 2050.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. Only studies with samples representative of the population and with clearly defined visual acuity testing protocols were included. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of mild vision impairment (presenting visual acuity ≥6/18 and <6/12), moderate and severe vision impairment (<6/18 to 3/60), and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation); and vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision <N6 or <N8 at 40 cm where best-corrected distance visual acuity is ≥6/12). We forecast estimates of vision loss up to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2020, an estimated 43·3 million (95% UI 37·6-48·4) people were blind, of whom 23·9 million (55%; 20·8-26·8) were estimated to be female. We estimated 295 million (267-325) people to have moderate and severe vision impairment, of whom 163 million (55%; 147-179) were female; 258 million (233-285) to have mild vision impairment, of whom 142 million (55%; 128-157) were female; and 510 million (371-667) to have visual impairment from uncorrected presbyopia, of whom 280 million (55%; 205-365) were female. Globally, between 1990 and 2020, among adults aged 50 years or older, age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 28·5% (-29·4 to -27·7) and prevalence of mild vision impairment decreased slightly (-0·3%, -0·8 to -0·2), whereas prevalence of moderate and severe vision impairment increased slightly (2·5%, 1·9 to 3·2; insufficient data were available to calculate this statistic for vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia). In this period, the number of people who were blind increased by 50·6% (47·8 to 53·4) and the number with moderate and severe vision impairment increased by 91·7% (87·6 to 95·8). By 2050, we predict 61·0 million (52·9 to 69·3) people will be blind, 474 million (428 to 518) will have moderate and severe vision impairment, 360 million (322 to 400) will have mild vision impairment, and 866 million (629 to 1150) will have uncorrected presbyopia.

INTERPRETATION

Age-adjusted prevalence of blindness has reduced over the past three decades, yet due to population growth, progress is not keeping pace with needs. We face enormous challenges in avoiding vision impairment as the global population grows and ages.

FUNDING

Brien Holden Vision Institute, Fondation Thea, Fred Hollows Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lions Clubs International Foundation, Sightsavers International, and University of Heidelberg.

Successive epidemic waves of cholera in South Sudan between 2014 and 2017: a descriptive epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Between 2014 and 2017, successive cholera epidemics occurred in South Sudan within the context of civil war, population displacement, flooding, and drought. We aim to describe the spatiotemporal and molecular features of the three distinct epidemic waves and explore the role of vaccination campaigns, precipitation, and population movement in shaping cholera spread in this complex setting.

METHODS

In this descriptive epidemiological study, we analysed cholera linelist data to describe the spatiotemporal progression of the epidemics. We placed whole-genome sequence data from pandemic Vibrio cholerae collected throughout these epidemics into the global phylogenetic context. Using whole-genome sequence data in combination with other molecular attributes, we characterise the relatedness of strains circulating in each wave and the region. We investigated the association of rainfall and the instantaneous basic reproduction number using distributed lag non-linear models, compared county-level attack rates between those with early and late reactive vaccination campaigns, and explored the consistency of the spatial patterns of displacement and suspected cholera case reports.

FINDINGS

The 2014 (6389 cases) and 2015 (1818 cases) cholera epidemics in South Sudan remained spatially limited whereas the 2016-17 epidemic (20 438 cases) spread among settlements along the Nile river. Initial cases of each epidemic were reported in or around Juba soon after the start of the rainy season, but we found no evidence that rainfall modulated transmission during each epidemic. All isolates analysed had similar genotypic and phenotypic characteristics, closely related to sequences from Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Large-scale population movements between counties of South Sudan with cholera outbreaks were consistent with the spatial distribution of cases. 21 of 26 vaccination campaigns occurred during or after the county-level epidemic peak. Counties vaccinated on or after the peak incidence week had 2·2 times (95% CI 2·1-2·3) higher attack rates than those where vaccination occurred before the peak.

INTERPRETATION

Pandemic V cholerae of the same clonal origin was isolated throughout the study period despite interepidemic periods of no reported cases. Although the complex emergency in South Sudan probably shaped some of the observed spatial and temporal patterns of cases, the full scope of transmission determinants remains unclear. Timely and well targeted use of vaccines can reduce the burden of cholera; however, rapid vaccine deployment in complex emergencies remains challenging.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020: the Right to Sight: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background

Many causes of vision impairment can be prevented or treated. With an ageing global population, the demands for eye health services are increasing. We estimated the prevalence and relative contribution of avoidable causes of blindness and vision impairment globally from 1990 to 2020. We aimed to compare the results with the World Health Assembly Global Action Plan (WHA GAP) target of a 25% global reduction from 2010 to 2019 in avoidable vision impairment, defined as cataract and undercorrected refractive error.

Methods

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity from <6/18 to 3/60) and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation) by cause, age, region, and year. Because of data sparsity at younger ages, our analysis focused on adults aged 50 years and older.

Findings

Global crude prevalence of avoidable vision impairment and blindness in adults aged 50 years and older did not change between 2010 and 2019 (percentage change −0·2% [95% UI −1·5 to 1·0]; 2019 prevalence 9·58 cases per 1000 people [95% IU 8·51 to 10·8], 2010 prevalence 96·0 cases per 1000 people [86·0 to 107·0]). Age-standardised prevalence of avoidable blindness decreased by −15·4% [–16·8 to −14·3], while avoidable MSVI showed no change (0·5% [–0·8 to 1·6]). However, the number of cases increased for both avoidable blindness (10·8% [8·9 to 12·4]) and MSVI (31·5% [30·0 to 33·1]). The leading global causes of blindness in those aged 50 years and older in 2020 were cataract (15·2 million cases [9% IU 12·7–18·0]), followed by glaucoma (3·6 million cases [2·8–4·4]), undercorrected refractive error (2·3 million cases [1·8–2·8]), age-related macular degeneration (1·8 million cases [1·3–2·4]), and diabetic retinopathy (0·86 million cases [0·59–1·23]). Leading causes of MSVI were undercorrected refractive error (86·1 million cases [74·2–101·0]) and cataract (78·8 million cases [67·2–91·4]).

Interpretation

Results suggest eye care services contributed to the observed reduction of age-standardised rates of avoidable blindness but not of MSVI, and that the target in an ageing global population was not reached.

Funding

Brien Holden Vision Institute, Fondation Théa, The Fred Hollows Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lions Clubs International Foundation, Sightsavers International, and University of Heidelberg.

Stroke Research Disparity in Southeast Asia: Socioeconomic Factors, Healthcare Delivery, and Stroke Disease Burden

BACKGROUND

Cerebrovascular disease is the second leading cause of death worldwide and provides a heavy burden of disease in Southeast Asia (SEA). Contribution to the collective knowledge of this disease is necessary to address practice and treatment disparities. There is limited data on research productivity in the region. This study aimed to determine research productivity on stroke and other cerebral and spinal vascular diseases among the SEA countries and determine its relationship with bibliometrics, socioeconomic parameters, healthcare delivery indices, and burden of disease.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted using five major healthcare databases. We included studies published until June 2020 on cerebral and spinal vascular disease with at least one author from SEA. Country-specific socioeconomic parameters, the burden of disease, healthcare delivery indices, and the number of neurologists were collected from international databases and published data. Correlational analysis was done on bibliometric indices and collected data.

RESULTS

A total of 2577 articles were included. Singapore had the most publications (n=1095, 42.5%) and citations (PlumX n=16,592, 55.2%; Scopus n=22,351, 56.7%). Gross domestic product per capita, percent gross domestic product for research and development, universal health care effective coverage index overall and for stroke treatment, and the number of neurologists had a positive correlation to bibliometric indices.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a disparity in stroke research productivity among high-income and low-income countries in SEA. Priority must be given to scientific research output and its role in socioeconomic development and policy formulation.

Estimates of Cancer Mortality Attributable to Carcinogenic Infections in Italy

Several infectious agents are ascertained causes of cancer, but the burden of cancer mortality attributable to carcinogenic infections in Italy is still unknown. To tackle this issue, we calculated the rate and regional distribution of cancer deaths due to infections sustained by seven pathogens ranked as group 1 carcinogenic agents in humans by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Population attributable fractions related to these agents were applied to annual statistics of cancer deaths coded according to the 10th International Classification of Diseases. The estimated burden of cancer mortality attributable to carcinogenic infections in Italy during the period 2011-2015 was 8.7% of all cancer deaths registered yearly, on average. Approximately 60% of deaths occurred in men, and almost the whole burden was due to four infectious agents (Helicobacter pylori, hepatitis C virus, high-risk human papillomavirus, and hepatitis B virus). The analysis of regional distribution showed a higher number of infection-related cancer deaths in the northern regions, where the estimates reached 30 (Liguria) and 28 (Friuli Venezia Giulia) deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015. Since one-twelfth of cancer deaths were attributable to these modifiable risk factors, the implementation of appropriate prevention and treatment interventions may help to reduce the impact of these infections on cancer mortality.

Task-sharing interventions for improving control of diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Task-sharing interventions using non-physician health-care workers might be a potential diabetes management strategy in health systems that are constrained by physician shortages, such as those in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of task-sharing intervention strategies for managing type 2 diabetes in LMICs. We searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL from database inception to Sept 25, 2019, for studies that were randomised control trials or cluster randomised trials with task-shifted or task-shared interventions delivered to adults (≥18 years) by non-physician health workers versus usual care, done in LMICs with glycated haemoglobin (HbA_1c) or fasting blood sugar (FBS) as outcome measures. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Random-effects model meta-analysis was used to estimate the population average pooled mean difference for HbA_1c and FBS with 95% CIs. Our study protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42018081015).

Findings

We found 4213 studies from the literature search, of which 46 (1·1%) were eligible for the narrative synthesis, including a total of 16 973 participants. 16 of these studies were excluded from the meta-analysis due to high risk of bias. 24 studies with a total of 5345 participants were included in the meta-analysis of HbA_1c and 18 studies with a total of 3287 participants for FBS. Interventions led to an average reduction in HbA_1c when tasks were delivered by nurses (averaged pooled mean difference −0·54% [95% CI −0·89 to −0·18]; I²=80%) and pharmacists (−0·91% [–1·15 to −0·68]; I²=58%), but not when they were delivered by dietitians (−0·50% [–1·10 to 0·09]; I²=54%) or community health workers (0·05% [0·03 to 0·07]; I²=0%). A reduction in average FBS was also observed when interventions were delivered by pharmacists (average pooled mean difference −36·26 mg/dL [–52·60 to −19·92]; I²=78%) but not nurses (−7·46 mg/dL [–18·44 to 3·52]; I²=79%) or community health workers (−5·41 [–12·74 to 1·92]; I²=71%). Only one study reported on FBS when tasks were delivered by dietitians, with a mean difference of −35·00 mg/dL (−65·96 to −4·04).

Interpretation

Task sharing interventions with non-physician healthcare workers show moderate effectiveness in diabetes management in LMIC settings. Although relatively high heterogeneity limits the interpretation of the overall findings, interventions led by pharmacists and nurses in LMICs with relatively high physician density are effective strategies in the management of diabetes.

Funding

Wellcome Trust–Department of Biotechnology India Alliance.

Follow-Up of Elevated Blood Lead Levels and Sources in a Cohort of Children in Benin

Lead exposure is associated with poor cognitive development in children. Very few studies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have studied blood lead levels (BLLs) and non-gasoline sources of exposure in children. Data from a birth cohort in Benin (2011-2013) suggested that 58% of 1-year-old children had BLLs > 50 ug/L. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of elevated BLLs (>50 µg/L and >100 µg /L) among 425 of these children at 6 years of age in 2016-2018 and to compare BLLs between age 1 and 6 years, and study sources of lead at age 6 years. BLLs were analysed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Multiple linear regression and quantile regressions were used to study potential sources of lead. The prevalence of BLLs > 50 µg/L in children was 59.5% (Geometric Mean (GM) 56.4 µg/L, 95% CI: 54.1-58.7) at 6 years of age compared to 54.8% (GM 56.5 µg/L, 95% CI: 53.4-59.6) at 1 year of age. The prevalence of children with BLLs > 100 µg/L decreased from 14.4% at 1 year of age to 8.2% at 6 years of age. After adjustment for all other covariates, consumption of peanuts more than once per month was significantly associated with a 22.0% (95% CI: 4.6, 42.5) increment in BLLs at age 6 years compared with no consumption. Consumption of bushmeat killed by lead bullets at age 6 years was associated with an increase in the higher percentiles of BLLs (P75) compared with the absence of this source. Other potential sources of lead associated with BLLs with marginal significance were consumption of rice, paternal occupational exposure, and the presence of activity with the potential use of lead. This prospective cohort confirms the persistently high prevalence of elevated BLLs in children residing in a rural region in the south of Benin, as well as the presence of multiple and continuous sources of lead. These results highlight the need for prevention programs to reduce and eliminate lead exposure in children.

Chronic kidney disease is a very significant comorbidity for high risk of death in patients with COVID-19 in Mexico

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a recognized public health problem and key determinant of poor health outcomes. In Mexico, this condition has been associated with high and significant risk of death in COVID-19 patients; however, not enough attention has been given to the vulnerable population as the increasing numbers and fatality rates suggest. This study evaluated the effect of interaction between CKD condition and other risk factors (sex, diabetes, hypertension and obesity) on the survival rate of positive patients for COVID-19 in Mexico. The results from this study support that CKD patients is a population at high risk for mortality for COVID-19 and that COVID-19 positive inpatients with CKD and diabetes are highly vulnerable to death.

Assessing COVID-19 through the lens of health systems' preparedness: time for a change

The last months have left no-one in doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic is exerting enormous pressure on health systems around the world, bringing to light the sub-optimal resilience of even those classified as high-performing. This makes us re-think the extent to which we are using the appropriate metrics in evaluating health systems which, in the case of this pandemic, might have masked how unprepared some countries were. It also makes us reflect on the strength of our solidarity as a global community, as we observe that global health protection remains, as this pandemic shows, focused on protecting high income countries from public health threats originating in low and middle income countries. To change this course, and in times like this, all nations should come together under one umbrella to respond to the pandemic by sharing intellectual, human, and material resources. In order to work towards stronger and better prepared health systems, improved and resilience-relevant metrics are needed. Further, a new model of development assistance for health, one that is focused on stronger and more resilient health systems, should be the world’s top priority.

Suicide Rate, Depression and the Human Development Index: An Ecological Study From Mexico

Objective: To assess the contribution of depression, the human development index (HDI) including the health, education and income indexes as well as the households structure to the suicide rate in Mexican population from 15 to 49 years old. Methods: An ecological cross-sectional study was carried out in people between 15 and 49 years old. The health index (HI), education index (EI), income index (II), and HDI were constructed. The suicide rate, educational level, per capita income, poverty, and rate of households were collected from official databases. Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) was used to determine the strength between the suicide rate and the per capita income, unemployment, poverty, HI, EI, II, HDI, non-family household, and depression incidence rate. A multiple linear regression model was used to know the association between suicide rates and HDI. Results: The suicide rate was 8.76/100,000 inhabitants. The HDI of the 32 Mexican states were low 16%, middle 41%, high 22%, and extremely high 13%. A direct and positive intensity relationship between suicide rate and non-family households, was found (r = 0.352; p < 0.001); on the other hand, the suicide rate is significantly and negatively related to family households with Pearson (r = -0.350; p < 0.001). Conclusion: The states of the Mexican Republic with the highest prevalence of non-family households had a positive association with the suicide rate. Based on the result of this study, it is possible to assume that, as the HDI increases, there is a greater possibility of living alone and having suicidal behavior.

Clinical Efficacy of Single Application Local Drug Delivery and Adjunctive Agents in Nonsurgical Periodontal Therapy: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

This review aimed to rank the clinical efficacy of commercially available single-application local drug delivery and adjunctive agents (LDAs) compared with subgingival mechanical debridement (SMD) in nonsurgical periodontal therapy (NSPT). Randomized controlled clinical trials that compared LDAs against SMD alone or with placebo in adults (aged at least 18 years) diagnosed with periodontitis with a minimum of 6 months follow-up were included. A frequentist approach to random-effects network meta-analysis was implemented. The efficacies of the LDAs measured by probing pocket depth (PPD) reduction and clinical attachment level (CAL) gain were reported as mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The treatments were ranked according to their P-score. Four network meta-analyses suggested that sulfonic/sulfuric acid gel (PPD MD −1.13 mm, 95% CI −1.74 to −0.53, P-score 0.91; CAL MD −1.09 mm, 95% CI −1.58 to −0.61, P-score 0.95) and doxycycline hyclate gel (PPD MD −0.90 mm, 95% CI −1.50 to −0.30, P-score 0.93; CAL MD −0.84 mm, 95% CI −1.40 to −0.28, P-score 0.92) were the most effective in reducing PPD and gaining CAL in split-mouth and parallel studies, respectively (moderate certainty of evidence). LDAs have differing efficacies, but they present with possible clinical significance over SMD alone in NSPT.

Leukemia mortality in children from Latin America: trends and predictions to 2030

Background

Reports suggest that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have not reduced leukemia mortality compared to high-income countries. However, updated trends remain largely unknown in the region. Given that leukemia is the leading cause of cancer-related death in LAC children, we evaluated mortality trends in children (0-14y) from 15 LAC countries for the period 2000–2017 and predicted mortality to 2030.

Methods

We retrieved cancer mortality data using the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality rates (standardized to the world standard SEGI population) were analyzed for 15 LAC countries. We evaluated the average mortality rates for the last 5 years (2013–2017). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate leukemia mortality trends and provide an estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions until 2030.

Results

Between 2013 and 2017, the highest mortality rates were reported in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru. Upward mortality trends were reported in Nicaragua (EAPC by 2.9% in boys, and EAPC by 2.0% in girls), and Peru (EAPC by 1.4% in both sexes). Puerto Rico experienced large declines in mortality among both boys (EAPC by − 9.7%), and girls (EAPC by − 6.0%). Leukemia mortality will increase in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay by 2030.

Conclusion

Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in some LAC countries by 2030. Interventions to prevent this outcome should be tailor to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities and ensure universal healthcare coverage.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-020-02408-y.

Development and validation of a tool for predicting type 2 diabetes in Mexican women of reproductive age

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes is a worldwide problem with a greater impact in developing countries, where many people are unaware of their risk. In Mexico, women show the greatest risk for T2D. Current risk scores have been developed and validated in predominantly older European cohorts. They are not the best option in Mexican women. The development of a risk model/score in this population would be useful.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk model and score that incorporates the most relevant risk factors for T2D in Mexican women of reproductive age.

METHODS

The study was carried out in two phases, with the first phase being the development of the predictive model and the second phase the validation of the model in a separate independent population. A cohort of Mexican patients of reproductive age ("Derivation Cohort") was used to create the predictive model. It included data on 3161 women. Risk factors for identification were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Finally a score with a range of 0 to 19 points was developed to identify the 2.4 year probability of developing DM2 in Mexican women of reproductive age.

RESULTS

147 new cases of T2D (4.6%) were identified in the Derivation Cohort model, 97 of 925 participants (10.48%) in the validation cohort. The risk factor predictors of T2D were: history of gestational diabetes (HR 2.69, 95% CI 1.10-6.58), BMI (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06), hypertriglyceridemia (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.11-2.14) and fasting blood glucose (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05-1.08), with an AUC of 0.75. The AUC in the validation cohort was 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94). The score had a sensitivity of 73% and specificity of 67% at a cutoff of ≥15.

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive model and risk score was developed to detect cases at risk for incident T2D. It was generated using the characteristics of Mexican women of reproductive age. This risk score is a step forward in attempting to address the generational legacy that diabetes in pregnancy could have on women and their children.

Socio-Economic Factors Related to Drinking Water Source and Sanitation in Malaysia

Access to improved water and sanitation is essential. We describe these practices in Malaysia using data from a nationwide community survey and used logistic regression to assess the determinants. Of the 7978 living quarters (LQs), 58.3% were in urban areas. About 2.4%, 0.5% and 27.4% of LQs had non-improved water sources, non-improved toilet types and improper domestic waste disposal, respectively. Open burning was practiced by 26.1%. Water source was a problem for long houses (10.5%), squatters (8.5%) and shared houses (4.0%). Non-improved toilet types were 11.9% for squatters and 4.8% for shared houses. Improper domestic waste disposal practices were higher for occupants of village houses (64.2%), long houses (54.4%), single houses (45.8%) and squatters (35.6%). An increase in education or income level was associated with a decrease in improper domestic waste disposal methods. House type significantly affected water and sanitation after adjusting for the effects of other variables. Lower household income was associated with non-improved toilet types and improper domestic waste disposal. Lower education and rural location influenced domestic waste disposal. The water and toilet facilities in Malaysia were generally good, while domestic waste management practices could be improved. There remain pockets of communities with environmental challenges for the nation.

Autocratisation and universal health coverage: synthetic control study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relation between autocratisation-substantial decreases in democratic traits (free and fair elections, freedom of civil and political association, and freedom of expression)-and countries' population health outcomes and progress toward universal health coverage (UHC).

DESIGN

Synthetic control analysis.

SETTING AND COUNTRY SELECTION

Global sample of countries for all years from 1989 to 2019, split into two categories: 17 treatment countries that started autocratising during 2000 to 2010, and 119 control countries that never autocratised from 1989 to 2019. The treatment countries comprised low and middle income nations and represent all world regions except North America and western Europe. A weighted combination of control countries was used to construct synthetic controls for each treatment country. This statistical method is especially well suited to population level studies when random assignment is infeasible and sufficiently similar comparators are not available. The method was originally developed in economics and political science to assess the impact of policies and events, and it is now increasingly used in epidemiology.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years, UHC effective coverage index (0-100 point scale), and out-of-pocket spending on health per capita. All outcome variables are for the period 1989 to 2019.

RESULTS

Autocratising countries underperformed for all three outcome variables in the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation, despite some improvements in life expectancy, UHC effective coverage index, and out-of-pocket spending on health. On average, HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years increased by 2.2% (from 64.7 to 66.1 years) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.3% to 3.6%, P<0.001) (from 64.7 to 66.9 years) in the absence of autocratisation. On average, the UHC effective coverage index increased by 11.9% (from 42.5 to 47.6 points) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 20.2% (95% confidence interval 19.6% to 21.2%, P<0.001) (from 42.5 to 51.1 points) in the absence of autocratisation. Finally, on average, out-of-pocket spending on health per capita increased by 10.0% (from $4.00 (£3.1; €3.4) to $4.4, log transformed) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by only 4.4% (95% confidence interval 3.9% to 4.6%, P<0.001) (from $4.0 to $4.2, log transformed) in the absence of autocratisation.

CONCLUSIONS

Autocratising countries had worse than estimated life expectancy, effective health service coverage, and levels of out-of-pocket spending on health. These results suggest that the noticeable increase in the number of countries that are experiencing democratic erosion in recent years is hindering population health gains and progress toward UHC. Global health institutions will need to adjust their policy recommendations and activities to obtain the best possible results in those countries with a diminishing democratic incentive to provide quality healthcare to populations.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Geospatial estimation of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health indicators: a systematic review of methodological aspects of studies based on household surveys

BACKGROUND

Geospatial approaches are increasingly used to produce fine spatial scale estimates of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) indicators in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aims to describe important methodological aspects and specificities of geospatial approaches applied to RMNCH coverage and impact outcomes and enable non-specialist readers to critically evaluate and interpret these studies.

METHODS

Two independent searches were carried out using Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, SCIELO and LILACS electronic databases. Studies based on survey data using geospatial approaches on RMNCH in LMICs were considered eligible. Studies whose outcomes were not measures of occurrence were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified 82 studies focused on over 30 different RMNCH outcomes. Bayesian hierarchical models were the predominant modeling approach found in 62 studies. 5 × 5 km estimates were the most common resolution and the main source of information was Demographic and Health Surveys. Model validation was under reported, with the out-of-sample method being reported in only 56% of the studies and 13% of the studies did not present a single validation metric. Uncertainty assessment and reporting lacked standardization, and more than a quarter of the studies failed to report any uncertainty measure.

CONCLUSIONS

The field of geospatial estimation focused on RMNCH outcomes is clearly expanding. However, despite the adoption of a standardized conceptual modeling framework for generating finer spatial scale estimates, methodological aspects such as model validation and uncertainty demand further attention as they are both essential in assisting the reader to evaluate the estimates that are being presented.

Patient Satisfaction and Associated Factors During COVID-19 Pandemic in North Shoa Health Care Facilities

BACKGROUND

Patient satisfaction is an indicator of healthcare quality service and involved as an outcome measure. Quality of healthcare service and patient satisfaction has been affected by the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It induced uncertainness and shortage of medical supplies due to a limited global movement. Therefore, this study aimed to assess patient satisfaction and associated factors among chronic patients who had a follow-up in North Shoa healthcare facilities.

METHODS

An institutional-based cross-sectional study was used to select 410 study participants through a systematic random sampling technique. Data were collected by a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire, entered into Epi Info version 7, and transported to SPSS version 23 for analysis. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify the factors associated with satisfaction. The odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was computed, and p-value <0.05 was considered statistical significance in the multivariable model.

RESULTS

The overall level of patient satisfaction was 44.6%. The presence of sign and direction indicators (AOR=3.26, 95% CI=1.1, 9.92), obtaining some ordered drugs (AOR=3.7, 95% CI=1.1, 12.54), getting alcohol for hand cleaning (AOR=2.66, 95% CI=1.1,6.65), obtaining sanitizer for hand cleaning (AOR=4.45, 95% CI=1.72,11.52), and maintaining social distancing (AOR=2.63, 95% CI=1.21, 5.70) were factors associated with patient's satisfaction.

CONCLUSION

The level of patient satisfaction was very low during a COVID-19 pandemic. The presence of sign and direction indicators, availability of drugs, social distancing, availability of alcohol, and sanitizer were factors associated with patient satisfaction. The intervention targeted at increasing patient satisfaction and improving the quality of service during COVID-19 through maintaining social distancing and availing alcohol or sanitizers is necessary.

Overcoming inefficiencies arising due to the impact of the modifiable areal unit problem on single-aggregation disease maps

BACKGROUND

In disease mapping, fine-resolution spatial health data are routinely aggregated for various reasons, for example to protect privacy. Usually, such aggregation occurs only once, resulting in 'single-aggregation disease maps' whose representation of the underlying data depends on the chosen set of aggregation units. This dependence is described by the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). Despite an extensive literature, in practice, the MAUP is rarely acknowledged, including in disease mapping. Further, despite single-aggregation disease maps being widely relied upon to guide distribution of healthcare resources, potential inefficiencies arising due to the impact of the MAUP on such maps have not previously been investigated.

RESULTS

We introduce the overlay aggregation method (OAM) for disease mapping. This method avoids dependence on any single set of aggregate-level mapping units through incorporating information from many different sets. We characterise OAM as a novel smoothing technique and show how its use results in potentially dramatic improvements in resource allocation efficiency over single-aggregation maps. We demonstrate these findings in a simulation context and through applying OAM to a real-world dataset: ischaemic stroke hospital admissions in Perth, Western Australia, in 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

The ongoing, widespread lack of acknowledgement of the MAUP in disease mapping suggests that unawareness of its impact is extensive or that impact is underestimated. Routine implementation of OAM can help avoid resource allocation inefficiencies associated with this phenomenon. Our findings have immediate worldwide implications wherever single-aggregation disease maps are used to guide health policy planning and service delivery.

Rising burden of overweight and obesity among Indian adults: empirical insights for public health preparedness

With simultaneous efforts to address a huge burden of malnutrition, especially among children and younger women, India also encounters a mushrooming prevalence of overweight and obesity among the adult population. This study analysed data from two consecutive rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2005-06 and 2015-16, to present the burden of overweight and obesity among adult men and women in India. The findings highlight a rising burden of overweight and obesity, although the level and the extent of change over the study period varied across states. The district-wise analysis revealed geographical clusters of overweight and obesity. Further investigation suggests that overweight or obesity are not exclusive to urban areas, and economically well-off populations are more inclined to be overweight or obese. The trends and patterns of overweight and obesity in India argue for timely public health preparedness and interventions to avoid the rising incidence of non-communicable diseases in India.

The Protective Association of Trait and Ability Emotional Intelligence with Adolescent Tobacco Use

The present study is one of the first to analyze the predictive capacity of both trait and ability Emotional Intelligence (EI) based on the Mayer and Salovey model, in relation to tobacco use in a sample of Spanish adolescents. In this study, 799 students between the ages of 12 and 16 participated. A self-report on trait EI, an EI peak performance test, and questions about habits relating to tobacco use were administered. This cross-sectional study developed a quantitative and correlation-type methodology. The main results of the regression analyses, once the sex and age of the participants were controlled, revealed negative associations between the factors of clarity and emotional repair of the trait EI with respect to the variables of tobacco use, and a positive association was found for them and emotional attention. By comparison, with respect to ability EI, emotional perception and understanding were inversely related to adolescent tobacco use. These results underscore the importance of EI skills as protective factors against early initiation and subsequent tobacco abuse.

Air pollution by NO2 and PM2.5 explains COVID-19 infection severity by overexpression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 in respiratory cells: a review

Many major cities that witnessed heavy air pollution by nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) have experienced a high rate of infection and severity of the coronavirus disease pandemic (COVID-19). This phenomenon could be explained by the overexpression of the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2) on epithelial cell surfaces of the respiratory tract. Indeed, ACE-2 is a receptor for coronaviruses including the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 1 and 2 (SARS-CoV), and ACE-2 is overexpressed under chronic exposure to air pollution such as NO2 and PM2.5. In this review, we explain that ACE-2 acts as the sole receptor for the attachment of the SARS-CoV-2 via its spike protein. The fact that respiratory and vascular epithelial cells express ACE-2 has been previously observed during the 2003 epidemic of the SARS-CoV-1 in China, and during the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome in Saudi Arabia. High ACE-2 expression in respiratory epithelial cells under air pollution explains the positive correlation between the severity in COVID-19 patients and elevated air pollution, notably high NO2 and PM2.5 levels. Specific areas in India, China, Italy, Russia, Chile and Qatar that experience heavy air pollution also show high rates of COVID-19 infection and severity. Overall, we demonstrate a link between NO2 emissions, PM2.5 levels, ACE-2 expression and COVID-19 infection severity. Therefore, air pollution should be reduced in places where confirmed cases of COVID-19 are unexpectedly high.

The Contribution of Avoidable Mortality to the Life Expectancy Gains in Korea between 1998 and 2017

This study evaluated the contribution of avoidable causes of death to gains in life expectancy between 1998 and 2017 in Korea. This is a multi-year, cross-sectional study using national data. Death certificate data from 1998 to 2017 were obtained from Statistics Korea. The difference in life expectancy between 1998 and 2017 by age and cause of death were decomposed using Arriaga’s method. Life expectancy rose 7.73 years over 20 years in Korea, which was largely (more than 50%) due to changes in avoidable causes of death. As age increased, the contribution to changes in life expectancy increased, and the gain in life expectancy due to avoidable causes also tended to increase. The major factors that drove that gain in life expectancy were avoidable causes such as cerebrovascular diseases and traffic accidents. The gain in life expectancy from preventable diseases was greater in men than in women. The results of this study indicate that active public health programs have been effective in improving life expectancy in Korea. Moreover, avoidable mortality could be further improved with good public health policy. Health policy aimed at reducing amenable and preventable deaths should be further implemented to promote population health.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epidemiologic Characteristics of Suicide in Panama, 2007–2016

Background and objectives: We aim to describe the demographic characteristics associated with suicide in Panama, to estimate the suicide mortality rate and years of potential life lost (YPLL) to suicide, and to explore the correlation of suicide rates with the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). We present a descriptive retrospective epidemiological report of suicide-related mortality (Panama, 2007–2016). Materials and Methods: Data were matched-merged to calculate unadjusted suicide mortality rates (overall, and by sex, age groups, and administrative region), YPLL, and coefficients (r) for the correlation of MPI and suicide rates. Results: There were 1475 deaths by suicide (86% among men, 47% between 20 and 39 years). The average mortality rate was estimated at 3.91 per 100,000 population with an average YPLL rate of 3.79 per 1000 population. There was a statistically significant trend to reduce YPLL over time (r = −0.93; p< 0.001). Exploratory analyses did not show a significant correlation between the MPI and suicide rates. Our study showed a 6:1 male-to-female ratio of suicide, mostly affecting the age groups of 20–29 and over 80 years. Conclusions: Exploratory analyses on the correlation of the MPI and the suicide rates did not achieve statistical significance, and alternative explanations, such as access to pesticides and alcohol, were further explored to inform potential interventions.

Association between prepregnancy body mass index and risk of congenital heart defects in offspring: an ambispective observational study in China

BACKGROUND

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defect around the world. Maternal prepregnancy obesity has been proposed as a risk factor of CHDs, but the relationship of CHD risk with over- and underweight is controversial, especially because body mass index (BMI) distribution differs between Asia and the West. The study aimed to examine the potential associations of maternal over- and underweight on risk of offspring CHDs.

METHODS

An ambispective observational study involving 1206 fetuses with CHDs and 1112 fetuses without defects at seven hospitals in China was conducted. Standardized questionnaires were used to collect information on maternal prepregnancy weight and height, social demographic characteristics, living and occupational environments, and lifestyle behaviors. Univariate, multivariate and multilevel logistic regression as well as unrestricted cubic spline analysis were used to examine potential associations of prepregnancy BMI and offspring CHDs.

RESULTS

Prepregnancy maternal underweight (BMI<18.5) or low average BMI (18.5 ≤ BMI<21.25) was associated with significantly higher risk of CHD in offspring than high average BMI (21.25 ≤ BMI<24.0): multilevel logistic regression indicated adjusted odds ratios of 1.53 (95%CI 1.13, 2.08) for underweight, 1.44 (95%CI 1.10, 1.89) for low average BMI and 1.29 (95%CI 0.84, 1.97) for overweight or obesity (BMI ≥ 24.0). Mothers with prepregnancy BMI < 21.25 were at greater risk of offspring with septal defects, while mothers with low average BMI were at greater risk of offspring with conotruncal defects and septal defects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that underweight or low average BMI may be associated with higher risk of CHDs in offspring. Health professionals may wish to advise women planning to be pregnant to maintain or even gain weight to ensure adequate, balanced nutrition and thereby reduce the risk of CHDs in their offspring.

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws.

FINDINGS

While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.