Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

To plan social and health services, future life expectancy projections are needed. The aim of this study was to forecast the future life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces.

METHODS

Following the same approach as the Global Burden of Disease Study, we used the largest compiled epidemiological and demographic datasets to estimate age-specific mortality and evaluate population data from 1990 to 2019. A total of 21 life expectancy forecasting models were combined by a probabilistic Bayesian model to forecast the life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces in 2035.

FINDINGS

The projected life expectancy at birth in mainland China in 2035 is 81·3 years (95% credible interval 79·2-85·0), and there is a high probability that the national goals of improving life expectancy will be achieved (79 years in 2030, and over 80 years in 2035). At the provincial level, women in Beijing have the highest projected life expectancy in 2035 with an 81% probability of reaching 90 years, followed by Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, which all have more than a 50% probability of surpassing 90 years. Men in Shanghai are projected to have the highest life expectancy at birth in 2035, with a 77% probability of life expectancy being over 83 years, the highest provincial life expectancy in mainland China in 2019. The projected gains in life expectancy are mainly derived from older individuals (aged ≥65 years), except those in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Qinghai (for men), in which the main contributions come from younger (0-29 years) or middle-aged (30-64 years) individuals.

INTERPRETATION

Life expectancy in mainland China and its provinces has a high probability of continuing to increase through to 2035. Adequate policy planning of social and health services will be needed.

FUNDING

China National Natural Science Foundation and Social Science Fund of Jiangsu Province.

Global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary diseases from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder and biliary diseases (GABDs) are a major public health issue.

AIM

To analysis the cause-specific incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) and its temporal trends of GABDs at the global, regional, and national level. Data on GABD were available from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

METHODS

The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify temporal trend in GABD age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized YLD rate (ASYR) by region, sex. We analyzed the relationship between the GABD burden and country development level using the human development index (HDI).

RESULTS

In 2019, the incident cases of GABD were 52003772, with an ASIR of 63432/100000 population. Globally, the number of incident cases and ASIR of GABD increased 97% and 58.9% between 1990 and 2019. Although, the ASPR and ASYR decreased from 1990 to 2019, the number of prevalent and YLDs cases increased. The highest ASIR was observed in Italy, and the highest ASPR and ASYR was observed in United Kingdom. The highest burden of GABD was found in low-SDI region, and the burden in female was significantly higher than males. A generally negative correlation (ρ = -0.24, P < 0.05) of GABD with the EAPC and human development index (HDI) (in 2021) were observed for ASIR. What's more, no correlation in ASPR (ρ = -0.06, P = 0.39) and ASYR (ρ = -0.07, P = 0.36) of GABD with the EAPC and HDI (in 2021) were observed, respectively.

CONCLUSION

GABD remain a major global public health challenge; however, the burden of GABD varies geographically. Globally, the number of incident cases and ASIR of GABD increased between 1990 and 2019. The results of our study provide insight into the global disease burden of GABD and may assist policymakers in formulating effective policies to mitigate modifiable risk factors.

Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020

The lifetime risk of cancer is a measure of the cumulative risk of cancer over a specific age range and has a clear, intuitive appeal. However, comparative assessments of cancer-specific risk across populations are limited. We used the adjusted for multiple primaries method to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer from the obtained data from GLOBOCAN for 185 countries/regions for the year 2020, alongside all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations. The estimated global lifetime risk of cancer from birth to death was 25.10% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.08%-25.11%) in 2020; the risk was 26.27% (95% CI: 26.24%-26.30%) in men and 23.96% (95% CI: 23.93%-23.98%) in women. Significant differences were observed in the risks between countries/regions within world areas and by the human development level. The lifetime risk of cancer was 38.48%, 25.38%, 11.36%, and 10.34% in countries/regions with very high, high, medium, and low Human Development Index, respectively. Globally, prostate and breast cancers were associated with the greatest lifetime risks among men and women (4.65% and 5.90%, respectively). The lifetime risk of cancer decreased with age, with a remaining risk of 12.61% (95% CI: 12.60%-12.63%) from the age of 70 years. The lifetime risk from birth to death translates to approximately one in four persons developing cancer, with men and women having similar risk levels. The identified age-specific variations in cancer risk at the population level can provide crucial information to support targeted cancer prevention and health system planning.

The effect of balance and gait training on specific balance abilities of survivors with stroke: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Background

Stroke, which is a common clinical cerebrovascular disease, causes approximately 83% of survivors to suffer from balance impairments. Balance and gait training (BGT) is widely used to restore balance in patients with stroke. However, its wide variety presents clinicians with a dilemma when selecting interventions. This study aimed to compare and rank BGT interventions by quantifying information based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Methods

We conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA) of non-gait-trained controls and head-to-head RCTs and compared the effects of 12 BGT interventions. A total of nine literature databases, including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, SPORTDiscus, ClinicalTrials.gov, CNKI, and Chinese biomedical literature databases, were searched from their database inception to August 2023. Two authors independently selected studies and extracted data. The difference in outcomes, which were expressed as standardized mean differences and confidence intervals (CIs) of 95%, were explored in this meta-analysis.

Results

A total of 66 studies with 1,933 participants were included. Effect size estimates showed that not all BGT interventions were more effective than controls, with treadmill training as the least effective for balance test batteries (SMD = -0.41, 95% CI [-1.09, 0.27]) and proactive balance (SMD = -0.50, 95% CI [-1.14, 0.14]). Body-weight-supported treadmill training with external stimulation was most effective for proactive balance and dynamic steady-state balance (SMD = 1.57, 95% CI [-0.03, 3.16]); SMD = 1.18, 95% CI [0.67, 1.68]. Virtual reality gait training (SMD = 1.37, 95% CI [0.62, 2.11]) had the best effect on improving balance test batteries, while dual-task BGT (SMD = 1.64, 95% CI [0.50, 2.78]) had the best effect on static steady-state balance. After analyses for possible impact covariates, the findings through the outcomes did not change substantially. Confidence in the evidence was generally low or very low.

Conclusion

This NMA suggested that virtual reality gait training was the most effective BGT modality for improving balance test batteries. Body-weight support treadmill training with external stimulation was the most effective for improving active and dynamic balance. In addition, dual-task BGT was the best choice for improving static balance. However, balance is a multidimensional concept, and patients' different needs should be considered when selecting BGT.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022316057, ID: CRD42022316057.

Budget impact analysis of adopting primary care-based case detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the Canadian general population

BACKGROUND

An estimated 70% of Canadians with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have not received a diagnosis, creating a barrier to early intervention, and there is growing interest in the value of primary care-based opportunistic case detection for COPD. We sought to build on a previous cost-effectiveness analysis by evaluating the budget impact of adopting COPD case detection in the Canadian general population.

METHODS

We used a validated discrete-event microsimulation model of COPD in the Canadian general population aged 40 years and older to assess the costs of implementing 8 primary care-based case detection strategies over 5 years (2022-2026) from the health care payer perspective. Strategies varied in eligibility criteria (based on age, symptoms or smoking history) and testing technology (COPD Diagnostic Questionnaire [CDQ] or screening spirometry). Costs were determined from Canadian studies and converted to 2021 Canadian dollars. Key parameters were varied in one-way sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

All strategies resulted in higher total costs compared with routine diagnosis. The most cost-effective scenario (the CDQ for all patients) had an associated total budget expansion of $423 million, with administering case detection and subsequent diagnostic spirometry accounting for 86% of costs. This strategy increased the proportion of individuals diagnosed with COPD from 30.4% to 37.8%, and resulted in 4.6 million referrals to diagnostic spirometry. Results were most sensitive to uptake in primary care.

INTERPRETATION

Adopting a national COPD case detection program would be an effective method for increasing diagnosis of COPD, dependent on successful uptake. However, it will require prioritisation by budget holders and substantial additional investment to improve access to diagnostic spirometry.

Changing trends of the diseases burden attributable to high BMI in Asia from 1990 to 2019: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the trends of diseases burden attributed to high body mass index (BMI), including overweight and obesity, in Asia from 1990 to 2019.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

The data of 45 countries and regions in Asia were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers, age-standardised rate (ASR) of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), attributable to high BMI in Asia from 1990 to 2019, were analysed by regions, genders and age. We also analysed changes in the causes of deaths and DALYs that are attributable to high BMI over this period.

RESULTS

In 2019, all causes deaths attributable to high BMI in Asia were 2 329 503, with increases by 265% compared with 1990. Over three decades, DALYs related to high BMI have increased by 268%. The ASRs of deaths and DALYs in Asia both showed continuous upward trends during this period (EAPC 1.39; 95% certainty interval [95% CI] 1.35 to 1.43 for deaths; EAPC 1.8; 95% CI 1.76 to 1.84 for DALYs), while both were declined in high-income areas (EAPC -2.03 and -1.26). By geographical regions, disease burden in Central Asia and West Asia have been fluctuating at high levels, but high-income Asia Pacific showed decreasing trends of ASR of deaths (EAPC -2.03) and DALYs (EAPC -1.26). Over this period, disease burden in Asia was changing from women to men, and tends to ageing. In addition, diabetes were the diseases most affected by high BMI, and cancer burden was high in middle-aged and elderly people.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden attributed to high BMI in Asia has experienced great changes. It is necessary to promote the prevention of obesity and chronic diseases in a comprehensive manner, especially in low-income areas, men and elderly.

The global burden of traumatic amputation in 204 countries and territories

Background

Traumatic amputation leads to disability and imposes a heavy health burden. This study aims to explore the current status and temporal trends of the global burden of traumatic amputation according to sex, age, amputation site, cause, and reginal level of social development.

Methods

The data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019. Prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs) and corresponding age-standardized rate were compared. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was applied to reflect trends in age-standardized rates over a specific period. Spearman rank test and curve fitting methods were used to analyze the relationship between disease burden and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).

Results

Globally, the incidence and prevalence number of traumatic amputation increased from 11.37 million and 370.25 million in 1990, to 13.23 million and 552.45 million in 2019, with a raise of 16.4 and 49.2%, respectively. But the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (EAPC = -0.56; 95%CI, -0.72 to -0.41) and age-standardize prevalence rate (ASPR) (EAPC = -0.63; 95%CI, -0.74 to -0.52) declined during this period. The YLDs count also increased by 39.2% globally (from 5.28 million to 7.35 million), while the age-standardize YLDs rate (ASYR) decreased by an average of 1.00% per year (95% CI, -1.10 to -0.90) from 1990 to 2019. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rate of traumatic amputation continue to increase with age. Traumatic amputations were most common in the fingers, while unilateral lower limb amputation caused the greatest burden of disability. ASIR and SDI were positively correlated (ρ = 0.442, p < 0.001), while ASYR and SDI were not significantly correlated (ρ = -0.030, p = 0.669), and EAPC in ASYR and SDI were negatively correlated (ρ = -0.275, p < 0.001). Exposure to mechanical forces and falls were the leading causes of traumatic amputation.

Conclusion

Despite the declining trends in ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR, the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs counts of traumatic amputation have increased significantly worldwide, especially in the older adults population. With the population aging, targeted health policies are needed to address the increasing global burden of traumatic amputations in the future.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy at birth at the global, regional, and national levels: A joinpoint time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Current estimates indicate that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused 14.9 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. Thus, estimating the change in life expectancy at birth due to the COVID-19 pandemic could aid in understanding its impact and implementing public health initiatives.

METHODS

We collected data on the life expectancy at birth of the combined population between 1990 and 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels from the 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects. In this time series study, we estimated the trend segments, the change of trend years (joinpoints), the annual percentage change (APC) in life expectancy at birth within each trend segment, and the average APC (AAPC) in life expectancy at birth during the full study period using joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

The global life expectancy at birth decreased from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71.0 years in 2021, with an annual decrease of 1.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0, 1.5) during the 2019-2021 period, despite an overall increasing trend during the entire period from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC = 0.3%; 95% CI = 0.3, 0.4). We observed a significantly increasing trend in life expectancy at birth in all regions and nearly 87.7% (207/236) of the world's countries and areas during the entire period (1990-2021). All continental regions except Africa and Oceania experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with an APC of -1.2% (95% CI = -1.5, -0.9) for Asia, -2.1% (95% CI = -2.7, -1.6) for Latin America and the Caribbean, -1.1% (95% CI = -1.6, -0.6) for Northern America, and -1.4% (95% CI = -1.9, -0.9) for Europe. Among all countries and areas, 107 countries and areas (45.3%) experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in the most recent time segment, with 77 countries and areas (32.6%) experiencing a significant decreasing trend during the 2019-2021 period.

CONCLUSIONS

The world experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with a decrease of 1.8 years; all continental regions except Africa and Oceania and 77 countries and areas experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth. These decreasing trends at global, regional, and national levels during the 2019-2021 period reflected the COVID-19 pandemic's direct and indirect adverse effects on life expectancy at birth.

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of knee osteoarthritis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): an epidemiological analysis from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Knee is the most affected joint in osteoarthritis (OA) and accounts for almost four-fifths of the burden of OA globally. We aimed to explore the prevalence, incidence, trends, and burden of knee OA during 1990-2019 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data.

METHODS

This is an epidemiological study based on the GBD data from 1990 to 2019 on knee OA in MENA countries. The prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLD) numbers of knee OA were obtained for both genders. Similarly, age-standardized rates of these indexes per 100,000 people and the proportion of total YLD caused by knee OA in each country and for the MENA region were evaluated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in the MENA region increased 2.88-fold, from 6.16 million cases to 17.75 million, between 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, in 2019, knee osteoarthritis accounted for approximately 1.69 million (95% UI 1.46-1.95) incident cases in MENA. The age-standardized prevalence was higher in women between 1990 (3.94% [95% UI 3.39-4.55] in women and 3.24% [95% UI 2.79-3.72] in men) and 2019 (4.44% [95% UI 3.83-5.10] in women and 3.66% [3.14-4.21] in men). Total YLDs due to knee osteoarthritis increased by more than 2.88-fold, rising from 196.29 thousand [95% UI 97.17-399.29] in 1990 to 564.66 thousand [95% UI 275.06-1,150.68] in 2019. In the year 2019, Kuwait, Turkey, and Oman had the highest age-standardized prevalence (4.42% [95% UI 3.79-5.08]), YLD (132.41 [95% UI 65.79-267.56] per 100 000), and increase (21.17%) in YLD compared with 1990 in MENA region, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of and YLDs due to knee OA in MENA has escalated over the last three decades. Considering the expanding burden of knee OA in MENA, policymakers should be more concerned to implement preventive strategies.

Estimating the impact of single pill combination therapy for hypertension: projections of patient outcomes in Italy

INTRODUCTION

Hypertension affects almost a third of the Italian population and is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Management of hypertension is often hindered by poor adherence to complex treatment regimens. This analysis aimed to estimate the 10-year clinical outcomes associated with single pill combination (SPC) therapies compared with other treatment pathways for the management of hypertension in Italy.

METHODS

A microsimulation modeling approach was used to project health outcomes over a 10-year period for people with hypertension. Input data for four treatment pathways [current treatment practices (CTP), single drug with dosage titration then sequential addition of other agents (start low and go slow, SLGS), free choice combination with multiple pills (FCC) and SPC] were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 data set. The model simulated clinical outcomes for 1 000 000 individuals in each treatment pathway, including mortality, chronic kidney disease (CKD), stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

RESULTS

Through improved adherence, SPC was projected to improve clinical outcomes versus CTP, SLGS, and FCC. SPC was associated with reductions in mortality, incidence of clinical events, and DALYs versus CTP of 5.4%, 11.5%, and 5.7%, respectively. SLGS and FCC were associated with improvements in clinical outcomes versus CTP, but smaller improvements than those associated with SPC.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 10 years, combination therapies (including SPC and FCC) were projected to reduce the burden of hypertension compared with conventional management approaches in Italy. Due to higher adherence, SPC was associated with the greatest overall benefits versus other regimens.

Developing diagnostic criteria for tooth wear, a preliminary beta version based on expert opinion, and a narrative literature review

BACKGROUND

Tooth wear is a multifactorial condition, leading to the irreversible loss of dental hard tissues. The availability of an unambiguous, universally applicable assessment protocol remains lacking.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of the authors is to develop a set of diagnostic criteria for the assessment of tooth wear (DC-TW). A two-step approach will be used to achieve this objective: (1) to develop a preliminary beta version of the DC-TW, based on the authors' clinical experience and their shared expertise and supported by a narrative review of the existing literature, and (2) to develop the final DC-TW, with input from a larger group of experts using an international Delphi process. This paper relates to the first step.

METHODS

The authors outlined the components that should be incorporated into the DC-TW. The literature search was performed to investigate if their concept was in line with the available literature. The search was conducted to identify eligible publications from inception to July 11, 2022. Two authors independently screened all publications, and differences in judgements were resolved through a consensus procedure.

RESULTS

The search yielded 5362 publications, resulting in the final inclusion of 383. These publications were divided into four main topics: (1) nomenclature/taxonomies; (2) self-report tools; (3) clinical assessment tools; and (4) clinical decision-making.

CONCLUSIONS

The information from the publications was used and fused with the clinical experience and shared expertise of the authors to contribute to the development of a preliminary beta version of the DC-TW.

Secular trend of mortality and incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in global ,1990-2019: an age period cohort analysis and joinpoint analysis

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a major public health problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of comprehensive and up-to-date information regarding the burden of RA and its dynamic trends in subsequent years. To examine the changing trends in the global burden of RA and forecast for 2044, which will facilitate the development of strategies tailored to RA burden and provide reference for the development of effective treatment guidelines.

METHODS

Following the general analytical strategy used the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, which included 204 countries, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability adjusted of life year (DALY) rate for RA were analyzed.

RESULTS

The ASIR, ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate for RA in 2019 were 13.001/100,000 (95% UI, 11.833 ~ 14.274), 0.574/100,000 (95% UI, 0.356 ~ 0.793) and 39.565/100,000 (95% UI, 49.529 ~ 30.508), respectively. America had the highest ASIR [18.578(95% UI, 17.147 ~ 20.148)] and age-standardized DALY rate [53.676(95% UI, 40.106 ~ 67.968)] in 2019. Asia had the highest ASMR [0.681(95% UI, 0.802 ~ 0.480)] in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, a significant average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the ASIR was observed in both males [0.237% (95% CI, 0.216 ~ 0.259%)] and females [0.197% (95% CI, 0.141 ~ 0.254%)], AAPC in the ASMR was observed in both males [-0.398% (95% CI, -0.605~-0.191%)] and females [-0.295% (95% CI, -0.424~-0.65%)]. Age effects indicated that the relative risk (RR) of RA-associated incidence and mortality rates increased with age among males and females. The RR of RA increased over time and started to gradually increase from 1990. Cohort effects showed decreases in incidence, mortality and DALY rates in successive birth cohorts. The global incidence of RA would continue to increase in the future, while mortality would continue to decrease.

CONCLUSION

The increased risk of RA is dominantly influenced by age effects and period effects and the ethnic area. The results suggest that early identification and treatment of RA is important for reducing the ongoing burden with age, and targeted health education and specific intervention programs should be promoted to control middle-elderly population.

Exposure to Neighborhood Walkability and Residential Greenness and Incident Fracture

IMPORTANCE

Emerging studies have suggested that environmental factors are associated with fracture. However, little is known about the association of neighborhood walkability and residential greenness with fracture.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of long-term exposure to walkability and greenness with incident fracture and explore the potential interaction effect.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study recruited participants aged 40 years or older in Ningbo, China from June 2015 to January 2018. Participants were observed for outcomes through February 2023, with data analysis conducted in March 2023.

EXPOSURES

Neighborhood walkability was measured by a modified walkability calculation method according to a walk score tool. Residential greenness was assessed by satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) within a 1000-m buffer.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident fracture was ascertained according to International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes via the Yinzhou Health Information System. Cox proportional hazards models were fit, with age as time scale to estimate the associations of walkability and greenness with fracture. Potential effect modification was explored by covariates, as well as the interactive effect of walkability and greenness.

RESULTS

A total of 23 940 participants were included in this study with 13 735 being female (57.4%). The mean (SD) age at baseline was 63.4 (9.4) years. During a follow-up period of 134 638 person-years, 3322 incident fractures were documented. In the full adjusted model, every IQR increment in neighborhood walkability and residential greenness was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.83-0.92) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.80-0.89), respectively, for fracture. Furthermore, the association of greenness and fracture was greater with an increase in walkability. The HR (Q4 vs Q1) for greenness was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.46-0.82) in neighborhoods with the highest quartile of walkability.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This population cohort study suggested that long-term exposure to neighborhood walkability and residential greenness were both associated with lower risk of incident fracture. The benefits of greenness increased in more walkable areas.

Burden of lower respiratory infections and associated risk factors across regions in Ethiopia: a subnational analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 study

OBJECTIVE

This analysis is to present the burden and trends of morbidity and mortality due to lower respiratory infections (LRIs), their contributing risk factors, and the disparity across administrative regions and cities from 1990 to 2019.

DESIGN

This analysis used Global Burden of Disease 2019 framework to estimate morbidity and mortality outcomes of LRI and its contributing risk factors. The Global Burden of Disease study uses all available data sources and Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate deaths from LRI and a meta-regression disease modelling technique to estimate LRI non-fatal outcomes with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).

STUDY SETTING

The study includes nine region states and two chartered cities of Ethiopia.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We calculated incidence, death and years of life lost (YLLs) due to LRIs and contributing risk factors using all accessible data sources. We calculated 95% UIs for the point estimates.

RESULTS

In 2019, LRIs incidence, death and YLLs among all age groups were 8313.7 (95% UI 7757.6-8918), 59.4 (95% UI 49.8-71.4) and 2404.5 (95% UI 2059.4-2833.3) per 100 000 people, respectively. From 1990, the corresponding decline rates were 39%, 61% and 76%, respectively. Children under the age of 5 years account for 20% of episodes, 42% of mortalities and 70% of the YLL of the total burden of LRIs in 2019. The mortality rate was significantly higher in predominantly pastoralist regions-Benishangul-Gumuz 101.8 (95% UI 84.0-121.7) and Afar 103.7 (95% UI 86.6-122.6). The Somali region showed the least decline in mortality rates. More than three-fourths of under-5 child deaths due to LRIs were attributed to malnutrition. Household air pollution from solid fuel attributed to nearly half of the risk factors for all age mortalities due to LRIs in the country.

CONCLUSION

In Ethiopia, LRIs have reduced significantly across the regions over the years (except in elders), however, are still the third-leading cause of mortality, disproportionately affecting children younger than 5 years old and predominantly pastoralist regions. Interventions need to consider leading risk factors, targeted age groups and pastoralist and cross-border communities.

The China Kadoorie Biobank Collaborative Group, Sun Q, Hu Y, Yu C, Guo Y, Pei P, Yang L, Chen Y, Du H, Sun D, Pang Y, Burgess S, Sansome S, Ning F, Chen J, Chen Z, Li L, Lv J. Healthy lifestyle and life expectancy free of major chronic diseases at age 40 in China

Whether a healthy lifestyle helps achieve gains in life expectancy (LE) free of major non-communicable diseases and its share of total LE in Chinese adults remains unknown. We considered five low-risk lifestyle factors: never smoking or quitting for reasons other than illness, no excessive alcohol use, being physically active, healthy eating habits and healthy body fat levels. Here we show that after a median follow-up of 11.1 years for 451,233 Chinese adults, the LE free of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases (95% confidence interval) at age 40 years for individuals with all five low-risk factors was on average 6.3 (5.1-7.5) years (men) and 4.2 (3.6-5.4) years (women) longer than those with 0-1 low-risk factors. Correspondingly, the proportion of disease-free LE to total LE increased from 73.1% to 76.3% for men and from 67.6% to 68.4% for women. Our findings suggest that promoting healthy lifestyles could be associated with gains in disease-free LE in the Chinese population.

Changes in contributions of age- and cause-specific mortality to the widening life expectancy gap between North and South Korea, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Life expectancy gaps between North and South Korea have increased but contributions to these gaps remain poorly understood. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, we examined how much death from specific diseases contributed to these gaps in different age groups over three decades.

Methods

Data for death numbers and population by sex and 5-year age groups in both North and South Korea from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the GBD 2019 to calculate life expectancy. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to investigate changes in life expectancy in North and South Korea. We used decomposition analysis to partition differences in life expectancy within and between the two Koreas into changes in age- and cause-specific death contributions.

Results

Life expectancy increased in two Koreas from 1990 to 2019, but North Korea experienced a marked decline in life expectancy during the mid-1990s. The life expectancy gaps between the two Koreas were greatest in 1999, with a difference of 13.3 years for males and 14.9 years for females. The main contributors to these gaps were higher under-5 mortality from nutritional deficiencies for males (4.62 years) and females (4.57 years) in North Korea, accounting for about 30% of the total gap in life expectancy. After 1999, the life expectancy gaps reduced but persisted with differences of about ten years by 2019. Notably, chronic diseases contributed to about 8 out of 10 years of life expectancy gap between the two Koreas in 2019. Differential cardiovascular disease mortality in the older groups was the main contributor to the life expectancy gap.

Conclusions

The contributors to this gap have shifted from nutritional deficiencies in children younger than five years to cardiovascular disease among elderly people. Efforts for strengthening social and healthcare systems are needed to curb this large gap.

Drug-induced delusion: A comprehensive overview of the WHO pharmacovigilance database

INTRODUCTION

A number of prescribed medicines have been reported in cases of drug-induced delusion, such as dopaminergic agents or psychostimulants. But to this day, most studies are based on a limited number of cases and focus on a few drug classes, so a clear overview of this topic remains difficult. To address this issue, we provide in this article a comprehensive analysis of drug-induced delusion, based on the World Health Organization (WHO) pharmacovigilance database.

METHODS

We performed a disproportionality analysis of this database using the information component (IC). The IC compares observed and expected values to find associations between drugs and delusion, using disproportionate Bayesian reporting. An IC0.25 (lower end of the IC 95% credibility interval) > 0 is considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Here we present an analysis of 4559 suspected drug-induced delusion reports in the WHO pharmacovigilance database. These results identified 66 molecules statistically associated with delusion and an extensive analysis of confounding factors and coprescriptions was performed, using full database as background with an IC0.25 > 0. The main drug classes involved were antidepressants, antiepileptics, dopaminergic agents, opioids, antiinfective agents, benzodiazepines, anti-dementia drugs and psychostimulants.

CONCLUSION

These results will help clinicians identify potential suspected drugs associated with delusion and decide which drug to discontinue and eventually lead to a re-evaluation of drug labels for some molecules.

Arterial Hypertension-clinical trials update 2023

Arterial hypertension is associated with increased morbidity and mortality and research in the field is highly dynamic. This summary reviews the most important clinical trials published in 2022 and early 2023. Findings on new pharmacological approaches to treat resistant hypertension are presented and new knowledge about the optimal timing of the antihypertensive medication intake is discussed. It is focused on optimal blood pressure treatment targets and the problem of treatment and guideline inertia is acknowledged. Information about pregnancy-related hypertension is presented and blood pressure control following percutaneous thrombectomy after ischemic stroke is discussed. Finally, novel clinical data on device-based approaches to treat hypertension are summarized. The hypertension trials update summarizes the most important clincal trials on hypertension research in 2022 and early 2023. CTD - chlorthalidone, CV - cardiovascular, HCT - hydrochlorothiazide, SBP - systolic blood pressure, RDN - renal denervation *depicts systolic blood pressure only.

An improvement in the reconstruction of digestive tract after total gastrectomy: ultra-short cecum

Aim

This study aimed to evaluate the utility and complications of ultra-short cecum (USC) in the reconstruction of digestive tract after total gastrectomy (TG) for the alleviation of reflux esophagitis and to determine its effect on long-term nutritional status.

Methods

Patients who underwent TG with USC or normal cecum (NC) at a single institution between June 2018 and December 2020 were included in this study. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined, and the primary endpoints were reflux esophagitis, anastomotic leakage and postoperative nutritional status. The long-term nutritional status was evaluated by the change trend of laboratory blood tests, including total protein, prealbumin, hemoglobin, and total leukocytes.

Results

Totally 240 cases were included in the final analysis out of 496 patients who received TG with USC or NC. Postoperative reflux esophagitis was significantly higher in the NC group than in the USC group (24.7% versus 7.7%, P = 0.001), and the NC group had a higher incidence of severe esophagitis symptoms compared to the USC group (13.6% versus 0.00%, P < 0.001), and the incidence of anastomotic leakage in the USC group was similar to that in the NC group (9.0% versus 6.2%, P = 0.6). There was no significant difference in long-term nutritional status between the USC and NC groups in the two years following the surgery (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

Ultra-short cecum after total gastrectomy should be more actively recommended due to its significant reduction in reflux esophagitis and similar incidence of anastomotic leakage and nutritional status compared with normal cecum after total gastrectomy.

Epidemiological Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Attributable to Modifiable Risk Factors and Its Association with Sociodemographic Transitions across BRICS-Plus Countries

BRICS-Plus countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other countries) is a group of 35 countries with emerging economies making up more than half of the world's population. We explored epidemiological trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to modifiable risk factors and its association with period and birth cohort effects and sociodemographic index (SDI) across BRICS-Plus countries by using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the all-ages CVD deaths increased by 85.2% (6.1 million to 11.3 million) across BRICS-Plus countries. The CVD age-standardized mortality rate attributable to dietary risks and smoking significantly decreased across BRICS-Plus countries, with some exceptions. However, four-fifths of BRICS-Plus countries observed a remarkable increasing trend of high body mass-index (BMI)-related CVD deaths, in particular, among younger adults (25-49 years). Early birth cohorts and individuals aged greater than 50 years showed a higher risk of CVD mortality. Both the China-ASEAN FTA and Mercosur regions stand out for their successful sociodemographic transition, with a significant reduction in CVD mortality over the study period. Singapore and Brazil achieved great progress in CVD mortality reduction and the other BRICS-Plus countries should follow their lead in adopting public health policies and initiatives into practice.

Economic evaluations of non-communicable diseases conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa: a critical review of data sources

BACKGROUND

Policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenging decisions regarding the allocation of health resources. Economic evaluations can help decision makers to determine which health interventions should be funded and or included in their benefits package. A major problem is whether the evaluations incorporated data from sources that are reliable and relevant to the country of interest. We aimed to review the quality of the data sources used in all published economic evaluations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes in SSA.

METHODS

We systematically searched selected databases for all published economic evaluations for CVD and diabetes in SSA. We modified a hierarchy of data sources and used a reference case to measure the adherence to reporting and methodological characteristics, and descriptively analysed author statements.

RESULTS

From 7,297 articles retrieved from the search, we selected 35 for study inclusion. Most were modelled evaluations and almost all focused on pharmacological interventions. The studies adhered to the reporting standards but were less adherent to the methodological standards. The quality of data sources varied. The quality level of evidence in the data domains of resource use and costs were generally considered of high quality, with studies often sourcing information from reliable databases within the same jurisdiction. The authors of most studies referred to data sources in the discussion section of the publications highlighting the challenges of obtaining good quality and locally relevant data.

CONCLUSIONS

The data sources in some domains are considered high quality but there remains a need to make substantial improvements in the methodological adherence and overall quality of data sources to provide evidence that is sufficiently robust to support decision making in SSA within the context of UHC and health benefits plans. Many SSA governments will need to strengthen and build their capacity to conduct economic evaluations of interventions and health technology assessment for improved priority setting. This capacity building includes enhancing local infrastructures for routine data production and management. If many of the policy makers are using economic evaluations to guide resource allocation, it is imperative that the evidence used is of the feasibly highest quality.

Postoperative bleeding after percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder drainage and aspiration in patients receiving antithrombotic therapy

This study aimed to investigate the bleeding risk associated with percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder interventions in patients with acute cholecystitis receiving antithrombotic therapy. In this retrospective study, 194 consecutive patients who underwent percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder interventions for acute cholecystitis between April 2011 and April 2021 were enrolled. Patients were sorted into four groups: no prior antithrombotic therapy, discontinued antithrombotic drugs, single antithrombotic drug continued perioperatively, and multiple antithrombotic drugs continued perioperatively. The risk of postoperative bleeding after percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder interventions was evaluated via multivariate logistic regression analysis. Of the 116 (59.8%) patients receiving antithrombotic therapy, 32 (16.5%) discontinued antithrombotic drugs before their respective procedure, 50 (25.8%) continued a single antithrombotic drug, and 34 (17.5%) continued multiple antithrombotic drugs during the perioperative period. The rates of significant and severe bleeding were 10.3% (20/194) and 3.1% (6/194), respectively. The rate of significant bleeding was significantly higher in patients who continued multiple antithrombotic drugs than in patients who received no prior antithrombotic therapy (P = 0.006). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the continuation of multiple antithrombotic drugs during the perioperative period was a risk factor for significant bleeding after percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder interventions. In conclusion, the perioperative continuation of multiple antithrombotic drugs is a risk factor for postoperative bleeding after percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder interventions.

Global burden and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among adolescents and young adults in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Current studies on musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders mainly focus on the elderly, while adolescents and young adults (AYAs) are often neglected despite their unique epidemiology, healthcare needs and societal implications. To bridge this gap, we evaluated the global burden and temporal trends of MSK disorders among AYAs from 1990 to 2019, as well as their common categories and main risk factors.

METHODS

Data on the global burden and risk factors of MSK disorders were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019. Age standardized rates for incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated using the world population age standard, and their temporal trends were evaluated by estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) regression was used to explore the association between two variables.

RESULTS

Over the past 30 years, MSK disorders have become the third leading cause of global DALYs among AYAs, with 36.2%, 39.3%, and 21.2% of increases in incident cases, prevalent cases and DALYs, respectively. In 2019, age standardized incidence, prevalence and DALY rates for MSK disorders were positivity associated with socio-demographic index (SDI) among AYAs in 204 countries and territories. The global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of MSK disorders began to increases among AYAs since 2000. In the last decade, countries with high SDI not only presented the only increase in age-standardized incidence rate across all SDI quintiles (EAPC = 0.40, 0.15 to 0.65), but also displayed the most rapid increases in age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates (EAPC = 0.41, 0.24 to 0.57; 0.39, 0.19 to 0.58, respectively). Low back pain (LBP) and neck pain (NP) were the most common MSK disorders among AYAs, accounting for 47.2% and 15.4% of global DALYs of MSK disorders in this population, respectively. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), and gout exhibited increasing trends in global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates among AYAs over the past 30 years (all EAPC >0), whereas LBP and NP showed declining trends (all EAPC <0). Occupational ergonomic factors, smoking and high BMI accounted for 13.9%, 4.3%, and 2.7% of global DALYs for MSK disorders among AYAs, respectively. The proportion of DALYs attributable to occupational ergonomic factors was negatively associated with SDI, whereas the proportions attributable to smoking and high BMI increased with SDI. Over the last 30 years, both the proportions of DALYs attributable to occupational ergonomic factors and smoking have consistently decreased globally and across all SDI quintiles, while the proportion attributable to high BMI has increased.

CONCLUSIONS

MSK disorders have emerged as the third leading cause of global DALYs among AYAs over the past three decades. Countries with high SDI should make more efforts to tackle the dual challenges posed by the high levels and rapid increases in age standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates in the last decade.

The Prevalence of Anemia in Working Women

INTRODUCTION

Anemia can be defined as a reduction in the amount of hemoglobin (Hb) in red blood cells (RBCs). It is becoming a growing socioeconomic issue. It is important to identify the causes of anemia and educate people about its symptoms. This can aid in the early identification and diagnosis of anemia, thereby preventing the disease's complications. The complications of anemia include the risk of low birth weight, prematurity, prenatal and neonatal mortality, and maternal mortality.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study is to investigate the factors contributing to anemia among working-class women employed in government or private sectors located in Karachi, Pakistan. By identifying the causes and risk factors of anemia, participants can be counseled to adopt a healthier lifestyle, a well-balanced diet, and activities that may eliminate the causes of anemia, further preventing the incidence of anemia. The objectives of the study are specific, measurable, achievable, realistic, and time-bound (SMART). The study was conducted from November 2019 to August 2021 despite facing COVID-19-related restrictions. The sample size fit the inclusion criteria, and the objectives were accomplished successfully with adequate resources.

METHODOLOGY

The cross-sectional study was conducted after receiving clearance from institutions and consent from participants. A total of 180 participants provided consent after receiving a thorough explanation of the study, and they had the right to refuse to participate. In respect of confidentiality, the participants were not required to provide their names, as they were not included in our data analysis. The inclusion criteria included women of the working class, aged 18-45 years, working a minimum of four to five hours per week, and employed in government or private sectors located in Karachi, Pakistan. The exclusion criteria included women with bleeding or hematological disorders, a history of surgery in the last 12 months, pregnancy, or systemic disease. Data collection was divided into two sections: section one (questionnaire) and section two (investigations). The questionnaire was given to each participant via Google Forms and was filled out before section two of data collection, which included blood tests via a finger prick to measure hemoglobin with a Veri-Q Multi Meter hemoglobin monitoring system (manufactured by Q-line BIOTECH, New Delhi, India).

RESULTS

The mean Hb was 11.15 ± 1.29 mg/dl (n = 180). The study revealed that 58.3% of the participants had a normal hemoglobin concentration according to the WHO anemia classification, while 41.7% were anemic. Overall, the prevalence of anemia was 41.7%, and the majority (56%) of the participants had mild anemia.

CONCLUSION

The majority of the participants had mild anemia. Education on anemia and its symptoms, eating habits, occupational status, and stress-related factors can affect the hemoglobin concentration in RBCs. A diet low in meat, leafy vegetables, and fruit leads to anemia. Despite knowledge of anemia and its symptoms, non-medical professionals, especially young adults, had a higher prevalence of anemia than medical professionals, although the difference was minor.

Sex differences in clinical outcomes amongst 1105 patients admitted with hip fractures

Amongst hip fracture admissions, mortality is higher in men than in women. However, sex differences in other care-quality measures have not been well-documented. We aimed to examine sex differences in mortality as well as a wide range of underlying health indicators and clinical outcomes in adults ≥ 60 year of age admitted with hip fractures from their own homes to a single NHS hospital between April-2009 and June-2019. Sex differences in delirium, length of stay (LOS) and mortality in hospital, readmission, and discharge destination, were examined by logistic regression. There were 787 women and 318 men of similar mean age (± SD): 83.1 year (± 8.6) and 82.5 year (± 9.0), respectively (P = 0.269). There were no sex differences in history of dementia or diabetes, anticholinergic burden, pre-fracture physical function, American Society of Anesthesiologists grades, or surgical and medical management. Stroke and ischaemic heart disease, polypharmacy, and alcohol consumption were more common in men. After adjustment for these differences and age, men had greater risk of delirium (with or without cognitive impairment) within one day of surgery: OR = 1.75 (95%CI 1.14-2.68), LOS ≥ 3 weeks in hospital: OR = 1.52 (1.07-2.16), mortality in hospital: OR = 2.04 (1.14-3.64), and readmission once or more after 30 days of a discharge: OR = 1.53 (1.03-2.31). Men had a lower risk of a new discharge to residential/nursing care: OR = 0.46 (0.23-0.93). The present study revealed that, in addition to a greater risk of mortality than women, men also had many other adverse health outcomes. These findings, which have not been well-documented, serve to stimulate future targeted preventive strategies and research.

Handgrip strength as a diagnostic tool for frailty risk in elderly patients with moderate to severe asthma

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate handgrip strength (HGS) as a diagnostic tool for frailty risk in elderly patients with asthma, as well as to investigate the prevalence of frailty in this population.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study including 96 patients ≥ 60 years of age diagnosed with moderate to severe asthma and treated at a tertiary referral center in Brazil. We measured HGS using a calibrated hydraulic hand dynamometer. We used a frailty scale and the AUC to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the HGS test.

RESULTS

The median age of participants was 67 years. Most (78%) were women and non-White (91%) of low socioeconomic status. HGS identified those at risk for frailty, with an AUC of 71.6% (61.5-80.4%; p < 0.002), as well as a sensitivity of 73.58% and a specificity of 67.53%, on the basis of a cutoff of ≤ 19 kgf.

CONCLUSIONS

HGS appears to be a simple, reliable tool for clinicians to determine frailty risk in older asthma patients in a point-of-care setting.

Ecological study on household air pollution exposure and prevalent chronic disease in the elderly

Older people spend most of their time indoors. Limited evidence demonstrates that exposure to indoor air pollutants might be related to chronic complications. This study aimed to estimate the correlation between household air pollution (HAP)'s long-term exposure and the prevalence of elevated hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), obesity, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. From the Global Burden disease dataset, we extracted HAP, hypertension, DM, body mass index, and LDL cholesterol data from Iran from 1990 to 2019 to males and females in people over 50 years. We present APC and AAPC and their confidence intervals using Joinpoint Software statistical software. R software examined the correlation between HAP and hypertension, DM2, Obesity, and high LDL cholesterol. Our finding showed a significant and positive correlation between HAP exposure and prevalence of high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p ≤ 0.001, r = 0.70), high systolic blood pressure (p ≤ 0.001, r = 0.63), and high body mass index (p ≤ 0.001, r = 0.57), and DM2 (p ≤ 0.001, r = 0.38). The analysis results also illustrated a positive correlation between indoor air pollution and smoking (p ≤ 0.001, r = 0.92). HAP exposure might be a risk factor for elevated blood pressure, DM, obesity, and LDL cholesterol and, consequently, more serious health problems. According to our results, smoking is one of the sources of HAP. However, ecological studies cannot fully support causal relationships, and this article deals only with Iran. Our findings should be corroborated in personal exposure and biomonitoring approach studies.

[Prognostic effects of cardiac rehabilitation in patients with acute coronary syndrome]

AIM

Reduction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 5 years in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and percutaneous coronary intervention who completed a cardiac rehabilitation program.

METHODS

We included 230 consecutive men with a diagnosis of ACS and percutaneous coronary intervention in the first half of 2015 according to the inclusion criteria. Two cohorts of 115 patients each were compared, one of them (rehabilitated group) with patients who completed the cardiac rehabilitation program and the other (control group) who received conventional outpatient care. Base-line characteristics and MACE at 5-years follow-up were compared and analyzed. MACE included re-infarction, heart failure, cerebrovascular accident and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

At 5 years of follow-up, a statistically significant reduction in MACE (27.19% vs 7.83%; OR 0.23 [IC 0.10-0.50]; P=.0001), all-cause mortality (OR 0.12 [IC 0.01-0.94]; P=0.01), re-infarction rate (OR 0.29 [IC 0.11-0.77]; P=.007) and cerebrovascular accident (P=.014) was found in the rehabilitated group (RG). MACE-free survival was significantly longer in the RG, regardless of risk (HR 0.25 [IC 0.12-0.53]; P=.000).

CONCLUSION

In our sample, cardiac rehabilitation programs showed a prognostic benefit in patients with ACS and percutaneous coronary intervention, with a statistically significant reduction in MACE, re-infarction rate and CVA at five-year follow-up.

Antibiotic prescription from qualified sources for children with fever/cough: cross-sectional study from 59 low- and middle-income countries

Background

Children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) receive a staggering number of antibiotic prescriptions, many of which are inappropriate. We aimed to explore the proportion of antibiotic prescriptions from qualified sources of children under five who had a fever/cough in the two weeks prior to the survey in LMICs.

Methods

We used data from cross-sectional studies of the latest Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets (n = 43,166) in 59 LMICs covering Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa-West Asia-Europe, Central Asia, South & Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Latin America & the Caribbean regions. The study was conducted from March 2, 2020 to October 15, 2022. We only included the latest available surveys by country, and children under five who had taken antibiotics for fever/cough were included in the study. Finally, the outcome variable was classified into two distinct categories: those who had taken antibiotics from qualified sources and those who did not.

Findings

About three in four children (74.0%) received antibiotics from qualified sources. Tanzania (22.4%) and Malawi (99.9%) had the lowest and highest percentages of antibiotic prescriptions by qualified sources, respectively. Oceania had the highest percentage of qualified antibiotic prescriptions with 88.9% and Central Asia had the lowest percentage with 56.3%.

Interpretation

As unqualified sources of antibiotics for fever/cough in children under five were alarmingly high in some of the LMICs, the study emphasises the importance of nationwide efforts to regulate antibiotics prescriptions.

Funding

None.

Objectively assessed sleep and physical activity in depression subtypes and its mediating role in their association with cardiovascular risk factors

The aims of this study were to investigate the associations of major depressive disorder (MDD) and its subtypes (atypical, melancholic, combined, unspecified) with actigraphy-derived measures of sleep, physical activity and circadian rhythms; and test the potentially mediating role of sleep, physical activity and circadian rhythms in the well-established associations of the atypical MDD subtype with Body Mass Index (BMI) and the metabolic syndrome (MeS). The sample consisted of 2317 participants recruited from an urban area, who underwent comprehensive somatic and psychiatric evaluations. MDD and its subtypes were assessed via semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Sleep, physical activity and circadian rhythms were measured using actigraphy. MDD and its subtypes were associated with several actigraphy-derived variables, including later sleep midpoint, low physical activity, low inter-daily stability and larger intra-individual variability of sleep duration and relative amplitude. Sleep midpoint and physical activity fulfilled criteria for partial mediation of the association between atypical MDD and BMI, and physical activity also for partial mediation of the association between atypical MDD and MeS. Our findings confirm associations of MDD and its atypical subtype with sleep and physical activity, which are likely to partially mediate the associations of atypical MDD with BMI and MeS, although most of these associations are not explained by sleep and activity variables. This highlights the need to consider atypical MDD, sleep and sedentary behavior as cardiovascular risk factors.

Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019

Background

Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance.

Methods

Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region.

Results

The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region.

Conclusion

In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.

National and subnational burden of under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality in Ethiopia, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The under-5 mortality rate is a commonly used indicator of population health and socioeconomic status worldwide. However, as in most low- and middle-income countries settings, deaths among children under-5 and in any age group in Ethiopia remain underreported and fragmented. We aimed to systematically estimate neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality trends, identify underlying causes, and make subnational (regional and chartered cities) comparisons between 1990 and 2019. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate three key under-5 mortality indicators-the probability of death between the date of birth and 28 days (neonatal mortality rate, NMR), the date of birth and 1 year (infant mortality rate, IMR), and the date of birth and 5 years (under-5 mortality rate, U5MR). The causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were estimated using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm). Specifically, this involved a multi-stage process that includes a non-linear mixed-effects model, source bias correction, spatiotemporal smoothing, and a Gaussian process regression to synthesise mortality estimates by age, sex, location, and year. In 2019, an estimated 190,173 (95% uncertainty interval 149,789-242,575) under-5 deaths occurred in Ethiopia. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of under-5 deaths in 2019 were within the first year of life, and over half (52%) in the first 28 days. The overall U5MR, IMR, and NMR in the country were estimated to be 52.4 (44.7-62.4), 41.5 (35.2-50.0), and 26.6 (22.6-31.5) deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively, with substantial variations between administrative regions. Over three-quarters of under-5 deaths in 2019 were due to five leading causes, namely neonatal disorders (40.7%), diarrhoeal diseases (13.2%), lower respiratory infections (10.3%), congenital birth defects (7.0%), and malaria (6.0%). During the same period, neonatal disorders alone accounted for about 76.4% (70.2-79.6) of neonatal and 54.7% (51.9-57.2) of infant deaths in Ethiopia. While all regional states in Ethiopia have experienced a decline in under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates in the past three decades, the rate of change was not large enough to meet the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Inter-regional disparities in under 5 mortality also remain significant, with the biggest differences being in the neonatal period. A concerted effort is required to improve neonatal survival and lessen regional disparity, which may require strengthening essential obstetric and neonatal care services, among others. Our study also highlights the urgent need for primary studies to improve the accuracy of regional estimates in Ethiopia, particularly in pastoralist regions.

Salmonella Typhi whole genome sequencing in Rwanda shows a diverse historical population with recent introduction of haplotype H58

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) is the cause of typhoid fever, presenting high rates of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. The H58 haplotype shows high levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and is the dominant S. Typhi haplotype in endemic areas of Asia and East sub-Saharan Africa. The situation in Rwanda is currently unknown and therefore to reveal the genetic diversity and AMR of S. Typhi in Rwanda, 25 historical (1984-1985) and 26 recent (2010-2018) isolates from Rwanda were analysed using whole genome sequencing (WGS). WGS was locally implemented using Illumina MiniSeq and web-based analysis tools, thereafter complemented with bioinformatic approaches for more in-depth analyses. Whereas historical S. Typhi isolates were found to be fully susceptible to antimicrobials and show a diversity of genotypes, i.e 2.2.2, 2.5, 3.3.1 and 4.1; the recent isolates showed high AMR rates and were predominantly associated with genotype 4.3.1.2 (H58, 22/26; 84,6%), possibly resulting from a single introduction in Rwanda from South Asia before 2010. We identified practical challenges for the use of WGS in endemic regions, including a high cost for shipment of molecular reagents and lack of high-end computational infrastructure for the analyses, but also identified WGS to be feasible in the studied setting and giving opportunity for synergy with other programs.

The burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: a longitudinal analysis from the global burden of disease dataset 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders are one of the main causes of disability among adults globally. The burden of MSK disorders varies greatly between different regions and is the highest in low- and middle income- countries. This study sought to investigate trends in the burden of MSK disorders across the MENA region, utilizing the GBD 2019 dataset.

METHODS

This ecological study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to report on the burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019. Our analysis involved descriptive statistics and sociodemographic trends and did not employ any specific statistical analyses. Using age-standardized rates of prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we reported trends in the burden of MSK disorders, as well as national variation between different countries. Furthermore, we analyzed trends in risk factors contributing to MSK disorders by age and gender.

RESULTS

The longitudinal analysis from 1990 to 2019 showed an increase in the age-standardized rate for prevalence and DALYs of MSK disorders by 5% and 4.80%, respectively. Low back pain continued to be the most prevalent MSK condition, while RA and other MSK disorders had the largest percentage increase for DALYs between 1990 and 2019. The study found that Afghanistan had the lowest age standardized DALYs rate attributed to MSK disorders, while Iran, Turkey, and Jordan had the highest. Further, Syria showed the most dramatic decrease while Saudi Arabia had the most notable increase in age standardized DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, occupational risks, high body mass index, and tobacco smoking were the main risk factors for MSK disorders, with occupational risks being the largest contributor, and between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the contribution of occupational risks but an increase in the contribution of high body mass index as a risk factor.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the significant burden of MSK disorders in the MENA region, with various risk factors contributing to its increasing prevalence in recent decades. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying factors and potential interventions that could improve health outcomes. Addressing MSK disorders should be a public health priority in the region, and efforts should be made to develop effective strategies to prevent and manage this debilitating condition.

Reductions in Childhood Pneumonia Mortality After Vaccination in the United States

BACKGROUND

We aim to estimate the magnitude of the reduction in pneumococcal pneumonia and meningitis mortality after the mass introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV)7 and PCV13 in children in the United States.

METHODS

We assessed the trends in mortality rates from pneumococcal pneumonia and meningitis, in the United States between 1994 and 2017. We fitted an interrupted time-series negative binomial regression model (adjusted by trend, seasonality, PCV7/PCV13 coverage, and H. influenzae type b vaccine coverage) to estimate the counterfactual rates without vaccination. We reported a percent reduction in mortality estimates relative to the projected no-vaccination scenario, using the formula 1 minus the incidence risk ratio, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Between 1994 and 1999 (the prevaccination period), the all-cause pneumonia mortality rate for 0-1-month-old children was 2.55 per 100,00 pop., whereas for 2-11 months-old children, this rate was 0.82 deaths per 100,000 pop. During the PCV7-period in 0-59-month-old children in the United States, the adjusted reduction of all-cause pneumonia was 13% (95% CI: 4-21) and 19% (95% CI: 0-33) of all-cause meningitis For PCV13, the reductions in this age group were 21% (95% CI: 4-35) for all-cause pneumonia mortality and 22% (95% CI: -19 to 48) for all-cause meningitis mortality. PCV13 had greater reductions of all-cause pneumonia than PCV13 in 6-11-month-old infants.

CONCLUSIONS

The universal introduction of PCV7, and later PCV13, for children 0-59 months old in the United States was associated with decreases in mortality due to all-cause pneumonia.

Anaemia among lactating and non-lactating women in low-income and middle-income countries: a comparative cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the prevalence and determinants of anaemia among lactating and non-lactating women in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

DESIGN

Comparative cross-sectional study.

SETTING

LMICs.

PARTICIPANTS

Reproductive-age women.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Anaemia.

METHODS

Data for the study were drawn from the recent 46 LMICs Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). A total of 185 330 lactating and 827 501 non-lactating women (both are non-pregnant) who gave birth in the last 5 years preceding the survey were included. STATA V.16 was used to clean, code and analyse the data. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with anaemia. In the adjusted model, the adjusted OR with 95% CI and a p value <0.05 was reported to indicate statistical association.

RESULT

The prevalence of anaemia among lactating and non-lactating women was found at 50.95% (95% CI 50.72, 51.17) and 49.33% (95% CI 49.23%, 49.44%), respectively. Maternal age, mother's educational status, wealth index, family size, media exposure, residence, pregnancy termination, source of drinking water and contraceptive usage were significantly associated determinants of anaemia in both lactating and non-lactating women. Additionally, the type of toilet facility, antenatal care visit, postnatal care visit, iron supplementation and place of delivery were factors significantly associated with anaemia in lactating women. Besides, smoking was significantly associated with anaemia in non-lactating women.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The prevalence of anaemia was higher in lactating women compared with non-lactating. Almost half of the lactating and non-lactating women were anaemic. Both individual-level and community-level factors were significantly associated with anaemia. Governments, non-governmental organisations, healthcare professionals and other stakeholders are recommended to primarily focus on disadvantageous communities where their knowledge, purchasing power, access to healthcare facilities, access to clean drinking water and clean toilet facilities are minimal.

Subtyping-based platform guides precision medicine for heavily pretreated metastatic triple-negative breast cancer: The FUTURE phase II umbrella clinical trial

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a heterogeneous disease and lacks effective treatment. Our previous study classified TNBCs into four subtypes with putative therapeutic targets. Here, we report the final results of FUTURE, a phase II umbrella trial designed to explore whether the subtyping-based strategy may improve the outcomes in metastatic TNBC patients. A total of 141 patients with a median of three previous lines of therapies in the metastatic setting were enrolled in seven parallel arms. Confirmed objective responses were achieved in 42 patients (29.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 22.4-38.1). The median values of progression-free survival and overall survival were 3.4 (95% CI: 2.7-4.2) and 10.7 (95% CI: 9.1-12.3) months, respectively. Given Bayesian predictive probability, efficacy boundaries were achieved in four arms. Furthermore, integrated genomic and clinicopathological profiling illustrated associations of clinical and genomic parameters with treatment efficacy, and the efficacy of novel antibody-drug conjugates was explored in preclinical TNBC models of subtypes for which treatment was futile. In general, the FUTURE strategy recruits patients efficiently and provides promising efficacy with manageable toxicities, outlining a direction for further clinical exploration.

Stillbirths and neonatal mortality in LMICs: A community-based mother-infant cohort study

Background

The exact timing, causes, and circumstances of stillbirth and neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain poorly described, especially for antenatal stillbirths and deaths occurring at home. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the incidence of stillbirth and neonatal death in three LMICs (Madagascar, Cambodia and Senegal) and to identify their main causes and associated risk factors.

Methods

This study is based on data from an international, multicentric, prospective, longitudinal, community-based mother-infant cohort. We included pregnant mothers and prospectively followed up their children in the community. Stillbirths and deaths were systematically reported; information across healthcare settings was collected and verbal autopsies were performed to document the circumstances and timing of death.

Results

Among the 4436 pregnancies and 4334 live births, the peripartum period and the first day of life were the key periods of mortality. The estimated incidence of stillbirth was 11 per 1000 total births in Cambodia, 15 per 1000 in Madagascar, and 12 per 1000 in Senegal. We estimated neonatal mortality at 18 per 1000 live births in Cambodia, 24 per 1000 in Madagascar, and 23 per 1000 in Senegal. Based on ultrasound biometric data, 16.1% of infants in Madagascar were born prematurely, where 42% of deliveries and 33% of deaths occurred outside healthcare facilities. Risk factors associated with neonatal death were mainly related to delivery or to events that newborns faced during the first week of life.

Conclusions

These findings underscore the immediate need to improve care for and monitoring of children at birth and during early life to decrease infant mortality. Surveillance of stillbirth and neonatal mortality and their causes should be improved to mitigate this burden in LMICs.

Global, regional and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to provide the most updated estimates on the global burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to improve management strategies.

DESIGN

We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database to evaluate IBD burden with different measures in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

SETTING

Studies from the GBD 2019 database generated by population-representative data sources identified through a literature review and research collaborations were included.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with an IBD diagnosis.

OUTCOMES

Total numbers, age-standardised rates of prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and their estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were the main outcomes.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were approximately 4.9 million cases of IBD worldwide, with China and the USA having the highest number of cases (911 405 and 762 890 (66.9 and 245.3 cases per 100 000 people, respectively)). Between 1990 and 2019, the global age-standardised rates of prevalence, deaths and DALYs decreased (EAPCs=-0.66,-0.69 and -1.04, respectively). However, the age-standardised prevalence rate increased in 13 out of 21 GBD regions. A total of 147 out of 204 countries or territories experienced an increase in the age-standardised prevalence rate. From 1990 to 2019, IBD prevalent cases, deaths and DALYs were higher among females than among males. A higher Socio-demographic Index was associated with higher age-standardised prevalence rates.

CONCLUSIONS

IBD will continue to be a major public health burden due to increasing numbers of prevalent cases, deaths and DALYs. The epidemiological trends and disease burden of IBD have changed dramatically at the regional and national levels, so understanding these changes would be beneficial for policy makers to tackle IBD.

The burden of type 2 diabetes in Australia during the period 1990-2019: Findings from the global burden of disease study

AIMS

To describe morbidity and mortality trends of type 2 diabetes in Australia, from 1990 to 2019, compared with similar sociodemographic index (SDI) countries.

METHODS

Australia-specific Global Burden of Diseases data were used to estimate age-standardised, age-specific, and sex-specific rates for prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and deaths due to type 2 diabetes between 1990 and 2019. Australian data were compared with 14 similar SDI countries.

RESULTS

Type 2 diabetes increased in Australia between 1990 and 2019. The age-standardised prevalence increased from 1,985 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1,786.7-2195.3] per 100,000 population, to 3,429 [95% CI 3,053.3-3,853.7]. Cases tripled, from 379,532 [342,465-419,475] to 1,307,261 [1,165,522-1,461,180]. The age-standardised death rates doubled, from 2,098 [1,953-2,203] per 100,000, to 4,122 [3,617-4,512]. DALYs doubled, from 70,348 [59,187-83,500] to 169,763 [129,792-216,150], with increases seen in YLDs and YLLs. Men displayed higher rates. Compared to similar SDI countries, Australia ranked 4th in terms of burden for type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of type 2 diabetes in Australia has increased considerably over three decades. There is an urgent need to prioritise resource allocation for prevention programs, screening initiatives to facilitate early detection, and effective and accessible management strategies for the large proportion of the population impacted by type 2 diabetes.

Integrative omics identifies conserved and pathogen-specific responses of sepsis-causing bacteria

Even in the setting of optimal resuscitation in high-income countries severe sepsis and septic shock have a mortality of 20-40%, with antibiotic resistance dramatically increasing this mortality risk. To develop a reference dataset enabling the identification of common bacterial targets for therapeutic intervention, we applied a standardized genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic technological framework to multiple clinical isolates of four sepsis-causing pathogens: Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae species complex, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pyogenes. Exposure to human serum generated a sepsis molecular signature containing global increases in fatty acid and lipid biosynthesis and metabolism, consistent with cell envelope remodelling and nutrient adaptation for osmoprotection. In addition, acquisition of cholesterol was identified across the bacterial species. This detailed reference dataset has been established as an open resource to support discovery and translational research.

Cross-species single-cell comparison of systemic and cardiac inflammatory responses after cardiac injury

The immune system coordinates the response to cardiac injury and is known to control regenerative and fibrotic scar outcomes in the heart and subsequent chronic low-grade inflammation associated with heart failure. Here we profiled the inflammatory response to heart injury using single cell transcriptomics to compare and contrast two experimental models with disparate outcomes. We used adult mice, which like humans lack the ability to fully recover and zebrafish which spontaneously regenerate after heart injury. The extracardiac reaction to cardiomyocyte necrosis was also interrogated to assess the specific peripheral tissue and immune cell reaction to chronic stress. Cardiac macrophages are known to play a critical role in determining tissue homeostasis by healing versus scarring. We identified distinct transcriptional clusters of monocytes/macrophages in each species and found analogous pairs in zebrafish and mice. However, the reaction to myocardial injury was largely disparate between mice and zebrafish. The dichotomous response to heart damage between the mammalian and zebrafish monocytes/macrophages may underlie the impaired regenerative process in mice, representing a future therapeutic target.

Evaluating interventions to reduce behaviour associated with HCV reinfection in men who have sex with men: study protocol for a non-blinded, phase 2, randomised trial

BACKGROUND

As highly effective therapy against hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is available with rapid uptake, there is newfound optimism for HCV elimination. Nevertheless, certain key populations have a high risk of HCV reinfection, in particular men who have sex with men (MSM) in Western European countries. Modelling data indicate that HCV elimination will not be feasible without reduction in risk behaviour, thus supporting the need for effective interventions aimed at reducing risk behaviour and preventing reinfections in MSM.

METHODS

The ICECREAM study is an international, multi-centred, phase 2, 3-arm randomised trial comparing run-in and intervention periods enrolling MSM with a history of a cured or spontaneously cleared HCV infection. Individuals are followed in routine care for 6 months (i.e. run-in period) and then randomly allocated (1:1:1) to one of the following: a tailored, interactive online risk-reduction behavioural intervention, a validated home-based HCV-RNA self-sampling test service using dried blood spots, or a combination of both. After randomisation, individuals are followed every 6 months until 18 months (i.e. intervention period). Interventions are delivered in addition to standard of care. Online questionnaire measuring risk behaviour over the past 6 months is administered at every visit. The primary outcome is the proportion at risk of HCV infection during run-in versus intervention periods assessed by using the HCV-MOSAIC risk score. The risk score consists of six self-reported HCV-related risk behaviours. Secondary outcomes include incidence of HCV reinfection, changes in the individual risk behaviour items and changes in sexual well-being since changes in sexual behaviour may have an impact on sexual experience. Two hundred forty-six MSM aged 18 years or older will be invited to participate.

DISCUSSION

The ICECREAM study is a trial aimed at establishing interventions that could effectively decrease the incidence of HCV re-infection in MSM with a previous HCV infection. By offering an online behavioural risk-reduction intervention and HCV-RNA self-sampling, both of which are aimed to influence risk behaviour, we are able to provide products to at-risk MSM that could further reduce population-level HCV incidence and ultimately help reach HCV micro-elimination.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04156945. Registered on November 8, 2019.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality of neonatal sepsis and other neonatal infections, 1990–2019

Background

Neonatal infections, especially neonatal sepsis, are one of the major causes of incidence and mortality in pediatrics. However, the global burden of neonatal sepsis and other neonatal infections (NSNIs) remains unclear.

Methods

From the 2019 global disease burden study, we collected annual incident cases, deaths, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), and age-standardized deaths rates (ASDRs) of NSNIs in the past 30 years. Analysis indicators included the percentage of relative changes in incident cases and deaths, and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of ASIRs and ASDRs. Correlations were assessed between the EAPCs of ASIRs and ASDRs and social evaluation indicators, including sociodemographic index (SDI) and universal health coverage index (UHCI).

Results

Globally, the number of incident cases of NSNIs grew by 12.79% per year, and the number of deaths dropped by 12.93% per year. During this period, global ASIR of NSNIs increased by 46% annually on average, while ASDR decreased by 53% annually on average. The ASIR and ASDR of female NSNIs were consistently lower than that of male NSNIs. The EAPC of female ASIR was 0.61, nearly twice that of male ASIR, and female ASIR was growing rapidly. The same declining trends of ASDR were noted in males and females. The ASIR of NSNIs in high-SDI regions grew by an average of 14% annually from 1990 to 2019. Except for high-SDI regions, the ASIRs of other 4 SDI regions maintained a rising trend at a high level, and were improved in the past 10 years. The ASDRs of all 5 SDI regions generally showed a downward trend. The region with the highest ASIR of NSNIs was Andean Latin America, and Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest mortality. We found a negative correlation between EAPCs of ASDRs and UHCI in 2019.

Conclusion

The global health situation was still not optimal. The incidence of NSNIs remained high, and continues to rise. The mortality of NSNIs has decreased, especially in the countries/territories with high UHCI. Therefore, it is crucial to improve the overall awareness and management of NSNIs, and take interventions for NSNIs worldwide.

The factors associated with cognitive function among community-dwelling older adults in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

This research aimed to investigate the associations of anthropometric measurements, physiological parameters, chronic disease comorbidities, and social and lifestyle factors with cognitive function amongst community-dwelling older adults in Taiwan.

METHODS

This was an observational, cross-sectional study involving 4,578 participants at least 65 years old, recruited between January 2008 and December 2018 from the Annual Geriatric Health Examinations Program. Cognitive function was assessed using the short portable mental state questionnaire (SPMSQ). Multivariable logistic regression was done to analyze the factors associated with cognitive impairment.

RESULTS

Among the 4,578 participants, 103 people (2.3%) with cognitive impairment were identified. Associated factors were age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13,1.20), male gender (OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.21,0.72), diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.03, 2.82), hyperlipidemia (OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.25, 0.89), exercise (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.34, 0.56), albumin (OR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.15, 0.88), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97, 1.00). Whereas waistline, alcohol intake in recent six months, and hemoglobin was not significantly associated with cognitive impairment (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggested that people with older age and a history of DM had a higher risk of cognitive impairment. Male gender, a history of hyperlipidemia, exercise, a high albumin level, and a high HDL level seemed to be associated with a lower risk of cognitive impairment amongst older adults.

The global, regional, and national burden of appendicitis in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide, and its burden has been changing. We report the level and trends of appendicitis prevalence, and incidence; and years lived with disability (YLD) in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

The numbers and age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates per 100,000 population of appendicitis were estimated across regions and countries by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI). All the estimates were reported with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

Globally, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates of appendicitis in 2019 were 8.7 (95% UI 6.9 to 11.0) and 229.9 (95% UI 180.9 to 291.0) per 100,000 population, with increases of 20.8% (95% UI 18.9 to 23.0%) and 20.5% (95% UI 18.7 to 22.8%) from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Additionally, the age-standardized YLDs rate was 2.7 (95% UI 1.8 to 3.9) in 2019, with an increase of 20.4% (95% UI 16.2 to 25.1%) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates peaked in the 15-to-19-year age groups in both male and female individuals. However, no statistically significant differences were observed between the male and female individuals in all groups. Ethiopia, India, and Nigeria showed the largest increases in the age-standardized prevalence rate between 1990 and 2019. Generally, positive associations were found between the age-standardized YLD rates and SDI at the regional and national levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Appendicitis remains a major public health challenge globally. Increasing awareness of appendicitis and its risk factors and the importance of early diagnosis and treatment is warranted to reduce its the burden.