A method for genome-wide genealogy estimation for thousands of samples

1,000 ancient genomes uncover 10,000 years of natural selection in Europe

Ancient DNA has revolutionized our understanding of human population history. However, its potential to examine how rapid cultural evolution to new lifestyles may have driven biological adaptation has not been met, largely due to limited sample sizes. We assembled genome-wide data from 1,291 individuals from Europe over 10,000 years, providing a dataset that is large enough to resolve the timing of selection into the Neolithic, Bronze Age, and Historical periods. We identified 25 genetic loci with rapid changes in frequency during these periods, a majority of which were previously undetected. Signals specific to the Neolithic transition are associated with body weight, diet, and lipid metabolism-related phenotypes. They also include immune phenotypes, most notably a locus that confers immunity to Salmonella infection at a time when ancient Salmonella genomes have been shown to adapt to human hosts, thus providing a possible example of human-pathogen co-evolution. In the Bronze Age, selection signals are enriched near genes involved in pigmentation and immune-related traits, including at a key human protein interactor of SARS-CoV-2. Only in the Historical period do the selection candidates we detect largely mirror previously-reported signals, highlighting how the statistical power of previous studies was limited to the last few millennia. The Historical period also has multiple signals associated with vitamin D binding, providing evidence that lactase persistence may have been part of an oligogenic adaptation for efficient calcium uptake and challenging the theory that its adaptive value lies only in facilitating caloric supplementation during times of scarcity. Finally, we detect selection on complex traits in all three periods, including selection favoring variants that reduce body weight in the Neolithic. In the Historical period, we detect selection favoring variants that increase risk for cardiovascular disease plausibly reflecting selection for a more active inflammatory response that would have been adaptive in the face of increased infectious disease exposure. Our results provide an evolutionary rationale for the high prevalence of these deadly diseases in modern societies today and highlight the unique power of ancient DNA in elucidating biological change that accompanied the profound cultural transformations of recent human history.

Recombination-aware phylogeographic inference using the structured coalescent with ancestral recombination

Movement of individuals between populations or demes is often restricted, especially between geographically isolated populations. The structured coalescent provides an elegant theoretical framework for describing how movement between populations shapes the genealogical history of sampled individuals and thereby structures genetic variation within and between populations. However, in the presence of recombination an individual may inherit different regions of their genome from different parents, resulting in a mosaic of genealogical histories across the genome, which can be represented by an Ancestral Recombination Graph (ARG). In this case, different genomic regions may have different ancestral histories and so different histories of movement between populations. Recombination therefore poses an additional challenge to phylogeographic methods that aim to reconstruct the movement of individuals from genealogies, although also a potential benefit in that different loci may contain additional information about movement. Here, we introduce the Structured Coalescent with Ancestral Recombination (SCAR) model, which builds on recent approximations to the structured coalescent by incorporating recombination into the ancestry of sampled individuals. The SCAR model allows us to infer how the migration history of sampled individuals varies across the genome from ARGs, and improves estimation of key population genetic parameters such as population sizes, recombination rates and migration rates. Using the SCAR model, we explore the potential and limitations of phylogeographic inference using full ARGs. We then apply the SCAR to lineages of the recombining fungus Aspergillus flavus sampled across the United States to explore patterns of recombination and migration across the genome.

Phylogeographic methods are widely used to reconstruct the historical movement of individuals between different populations. When applied to infectious pathogens, these methods are often used to reconstruct the origin or source of novel pathogen lineages. Most existing phylogeographic methods reconstruct movement based on a single phylogenetic tree, which is assumed to reflect the genetic ancestry of all sampled individuals. However in populations undergoing recombination, genetic material can be exchanged between lineages such that individuals may inherit different regions of their genome from different ancestors. In this case, phylogenetic relationships among individuals can only be captured by a reticulated network rather than any single tree. Ancestral Recombination Graphs (ARGs) provide one way of capturing these reticulate relationships and we develop new models that allow for demographic inference of historical population sizes, recombination rates and migration rates between subpopulations from ARGs. By accounting for recombination, our models not only allow for accurate demographic inference, but can take full advantage of the additional information contained in ARGs about how ancestry varies across genomes to more precisely reconstruct the movement of genetic material between populations.

Locus-level antagonistic selection shaped the polygenic architecture of human complex diseases

BACKGROUND

We aimed to evaluate the potential role of antagonistic selection in polygenic diseases: if one variant increases the risk of one disease and decreases the risk of another disease, the signals of genetic risk elimination by natural selection will be distorted, which leads to a higher frequency of risk alleles.

METHODS

We applied local genetic correlations and transcriptome-wide association studies to identify genomic loci and genes adversely associated with at least two diseases. Then, we used different population genetic metrics to measure the signals of natural selection for these loci and genes.

RESULTS

First, we identified 2120 cases of antagonistic pleiotropy (negative local genetic correlation) among 87 diseases in 716 genomic loci (antagonistic loci). Next, by comparing with non-antagonistic loci, we observed that antagonistic loci explained an excess proportion of disease heritability (median 6%), showed enhanced signals of balancing selection, and reduced signals of directional polygenic adaptation. Then, at the gene expression level, we identified 31,991 cases of antagonistic pleiotropy among 98 diseases at 4368 genes. However, evidence of altered signals of selection pressure and heritability distribution at the gene expression level is limited.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that antagonistic pleiotropy is widespread among human polygenic diseases, and it has distorted the evolutionary signal and genetic architecture of diseases at the locus level.

Chronology of natural selection in Oceanian genomes

As human populations left Asia to first settle in Oceania around 50,000 years ago, they entered a territory ecologically separated from the Old World for millions of years. We analyzed genomic data of 239 modern Oceanian individuals to detect and date signals of selection specific to this region. Combining both relative and absolute dating approaches, we identified a strong selection pattern between 52,000 and 54,000 years ago in the genomes of descendants of the first settlers of Sahul. This strikingly corresponds to the dates of initial settlement as inferred from archaeological evidence. Loci under selection during this period, some showing enrichment in Denisovan ancestry, overlap genes involved in the immune response and diet, especially based on plants. Pathogens and natural resources, especially from endemic plants, therefore appear to have acted as strong selective pressures on the genomes of the first settlers of Sahul.

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239 human genomes from both sides of the Wallacean ecogeographical barriers

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Signals of selection are dated between -54,000 to -52,000 in modern Oceanian genomes

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Genes related to immunity and diet were under strong selection

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Denisovan introgressions participated to the genetic adaptations present in Oceanians

On the prospect of achieving accurate joint estimation of selection with population history

As both natural selection and population history can affect genome-wide patterns of variation, disentangling the contributions of each has remained as a major challenge in population genetics. We here discuss historical and recent progress towards this goal—highlighting theoretical and computational challenges that remain to be addressed, as well as inherent difficulties in dealing with model complexity and model violations—and offer thoughts on potentially fruitful next steps.

Grey wolf genomic history reveals a dual ancestry of dogs

The grey wolf (Canis lupus) was the first species to give rise to a domestic population, and they remained widespread throughout the last Ice Age when many other large mammal species went extinct. Little is known, however, about the history and possible extinction of past wolf populations or when and where the wolf progenitors of the present-day dog lineage (Canis familiaris) lived^1–8. Here we analysed 72 ancient wolf genomes spanning the last 100,000 years from Europe, Siberia and North America. We found that wolf populations were highly connected throughout the Late Pleistocene, with levels of differentiation an order of magnitude lower than they are today. This population connectivity allowed us to detect natural selection across the time series, including rapid fixation of mutations in the gene IFT88 40,000–30,000 years ago. We show that dogs are overall more closely related to ancient wolves from eastern Eurasia than to those from western Eurasia, suggesting a domestication process in the east. However, we also found that dogs in the Near East and Africa derive up to half of their ancestry from a distinct population related to modern southwest Eurasian wolves, reflecting either an independent domestication process or admixture from local wolves. None of the analysed ancient wolf genomes is a direct match for either of these dog ancestries, meaning that the exact progenitor populations remain to be located.

DNA from ancient wolves spanning 100,000 years sheds light on wolves’ evolutionary history and the genomic origin of dogs.

Octopaminergic/tyraminergic Tdc2 neurons regulate biased sperm usage in female Drosophila melanogaster

In polyandrous internally fertilizing species, a multiply-mated female can use stored sperm from different males in a biased manner to fertilize her eggs. The female's ability to assess sperm quality and compatibility is essential for her reproductive success, and represents an important aspect of postcopulatory sexual selection. In Drosophila melanogaster, previous studies demonstrated that the female nervous system plays an active role in influencing progeny paternity proportion, and suggested a role for octopaminergic/tyraminergic Tdc2 neurons in this process. Here, we report that inhibiting Tdc2 neuronal activity causes females to produce a higher-than-normal proportion of first-male progeny. This difference is not due to differences in sperm storage or release, but instead is attributable to the suppression of second-male sperm usage bias that normally occurs in control females. We further show that a subset of Tdc2 neurons innervating the female reproductive tract is largely responsible for the progeny proportion phenotype that is observed when Tdc2 neurons are inhibited globally. On the contrary, overactivation of Tdc2 neurons does not further affect sperm storage and release or progeny proportion. These results suggest that octopaminergic/tyraminergic signaling allows a multiply-mated female to bias sperm usage, and identify a new role for the female nervous system in postcopulatory sexual selection.

The Galapagos giant tortoise Chelonoidis phantasticus is not extinct

The status of the Fernandina Island Galapagos giant tortoise (Chelonoidis phantasticus) has been a mystery, with the species known from a single specimen collected in 1906. The discovery in 2019 of a female tortoise living on the island provided the opportunity to determine if the species lives on. By sequencing the genomes of both individuals and comparing them to all living species of Galapagos giant tortoises, here we show that the two known Fernandina tortoises are from the same lineage and distinct from all others. The whole genome phylogeny groups the Fernandina individuals within a monophyletic group containing all species with a saddleback carapace morphology and one semi-saddleback species. This grouping of the saddleback species is contrary to mitochondrial DNA phylogenies, which place the saddleback species across several clades. These results imply the continued existence of lineage long considered extinct, with a current known population size of a single individual.

Based on genomic data, the Galapagos giant tortoise species native to Fernandina Island appears to be alive and well, survived by at least one female after being considered extinct since 1906.

Recombination in Coronaviruses, with a Focus on SARS-CoV-2

Recombination is a common evolutionary tool for RNA viruses, and coronaviruses are no exception. We review here the evidence for recombination in SARS-CoV-2 and reconcile nomenclature for recombinants, discuss their origin and fitness, and speculate how recombinants could make a difference in the future of the COVID-19 pandemics.

Lineage tracing reveals the phylodynamics, plasticity, and paths of tumor evolution

Tumor evolution is driven by the progressive acquisition of genetic and epigenetic alterations that enable uncontrolled growth and expansion to neighboring and distal tissues. The study of phylogenetic relationships between cancer cells provides key insights into these processes. Here, we introduced an evolving lineage-tracing system with a single-cell RNA-seq readout into a mouse model of Kras;Trp53(KP)-driven lung adenocarcinoma and tracked tumor evolution from single-transformed cells to metastatic tumors at unprecedented resolution. We found that the loss of the initial, stable alveolar-type2-like state was accompanied by a transient increase in plasticity. This was followed by the adoption of distinct transcriptional programs that enable rapid expansion and, ultimately, clonal sweep of stable subclones capable of metastasizing. Finally, tumors develop through stereotypical evolutionary trajectories, and perturbing additional tumor suppressors accelerates progression by creating novel trajectories. Our study elucidates the hierarchical nature of tumor evolution and, more broadly, enables in-depth studies of tumor progression.

A two-step adaptive walk rewires nutrient transport in a challenging edaphic environment

Most well-characterized cases of adaptation involve single genetic loci. Theory suggests that multilocus adaptive walks should be common, but these are challenging to identify in natural populations. Here, we combine trait mapping with population genetic modeling to show that a two-step process rewired nutrient homeostasis in a population of Arabidopsis as it colonized the base of an active stratovolcano characterized by extremely low soil manganese (Mn). First, a variant that disrupted the primary iron (Fe) uptake transporter gene (IRT1) swept quickly to fixation in a hard selective sweep, increasing Mn but limiting Fe in the leaves. Second, multiple independent tandem duplications occurred at NRAMP1 and together rose to near fixation in the island population, compensating the loss of IRT1 by improving Fe homeostasis. This study provides a clear case of a multilocus adaptive walk and reveals how genetic variants reshaped a phenotype and spread over space and time.

A genealogical estimate of genetic relationships

The application of genetic relationships among individuals, characterized by a genetic relationship matrix (GRM), has far-reaching effects in human genetics. However, the current standard to calculate the GRM treats linked markers as independent and does not explicitly model the underlying genealogical history of the study sample. Here, we propose a coalescent-informed framework, namely the expected GRM (eGRM), to infer the expected relatedness between pairs of individuals given an ancestral recombination graph (ARG) of the sample. Through extensive simulations, we show that the eGRM is an unbiased estimate of latent pairwise genome-wide relatedness and is robust when computed with ARG inferred from incomplete genetic data. As a result, the eGRM better captures the structure of a population than the canonical GRM, even when using the same genetic information. More importantly, our framework allows a principled approach to estimate the eGRM at different time depths of the ARG, thereby revealing the time-varying nature of population structure in a sample. When applied to SNP array genotypes from a population sample from Northern and Eastern Finland, we find that clustering analysis with the eGRM reveals population structure driven by subpopulations that would not be apparent via the canonical GRM and that temporally the population model is consistent with recent divergence and expansion. Taken together, our proposed eGRM provides a robust tree-centric estimate of relatedness with wide application to genetic studies.

Multi-ancestry genetic study of type 2 diabetes highlights the power of diverse populations for discovery and translation

We assembled an ancestrally diverse collection of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 180,834 affected individuals and 1,159,055 controls (48.9% non-European descent) through the Diabetes Meta-Analysis of Trans-Ethnic association studies (DIAMANTE) Consortium. Multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analysis identified 237 loci attaining stringent genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-9), which were delineated to 338 distinct association signals. Fine-mapping of these signals was enhanced by the increased sample size and expanded population diversity of the multi-ancestry meta-analysis, which localized 54.4% of T2D associations to a single variant with >50% posterior probability. This improved fine-mapping enabled systematic assessment of candidate causal genes and molecular mechanisms through which T2D associations are mediated, laying the foundations for functional investigations. Multi-ancestry genetic risk scores enhanced transferability of T2D prediction across diverse populations. Our study provides a step toward more effective clinical translation of T2D GWAS to improve global health for all, irrespective of genetic background.

Recurrent inversion polymorphisms in humans associate with genetic instability and genomic disorders

Unlike copy number variants (CNVs), inversions remain an underexplored genetic variation class. By integrating multiple genomic technologies, we discover 729 inversions in 41 human genomes. Approximately 85% of inversions <2 kbp form by twin-priming during L1 retrotransposition; 80% of the larger inversions are balanced and affect twice as many nucleotides as CNVs. Balanced inversions show an excess of common variants, and 72% are flanked by segmental duplications (SDs) or retrotransposons. Since flanking repeats promote non-allelic homologous recombination, we developed complementary approaches to identify recurrent inversion formation. We describe 40 recurrent inversions encompassing 0.6% of the genome, showing inversion rates up to 2.7 × 10^-4 per locus per generation. Recurrent inversions exhibit a sex-chromosomal bias and co-localize with genomic disorder critical regions. We propose that inversion recurrence results in an elevated number of heterozygous carriers and structural SD diversity, which increases mutability in the population and predisposes specific haplotypes to disease-causing CNVs.

Chromosome-length genome assembly and linkage map of a critically endangered Australian bird: the helmeted honeyeater

Background

The helmeted honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix) is a Critically Endangered bird endemic to Victoria, Australia. To aid its conservation, the population is the subject of genetic rescue. To understand, monitor, and modulate the effects of genetic rescue on the helmeted honeyeater genome, a chromosome-length genome and a high-density linkage map are required.

Results

We used a combination of Illumina, Oxford Nanopore, and Hi-C sequencing technologies to assemble a chromosome-length genome of the helmeted honeyeater, comprising 906 scaffolds, with length of 1.1 Gb and scaffold N50 of 63.8 Mb. Annotation comprised 57,181 gene models. Using a pedigree of 257 birds and 53,111 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, we obtained high-density linkage and recombination maps for 25 autosomes and Z chromosome. The total sex-averaged linkage map was 1,347 cM long, with the male map being 6.7% longer than the female map. Recombination maps revealed sexually dimorphic recombination rates (overall higher in males), with average recombination rate of 1.8 cM/Mb. Comparative analyses revealed high synteny of the helmeted honeyeater genome with that of 3 passerine species (e.g., 32 Hi-C scaffolds mapped to 30 zebra finch autosomes and Z chromosome). The genome assembly and linkage map suggest that the helmeted honeyeater exhibits a fission of chromosome 1A into 2 chromosomes relative to zebra finch. PSMC analysis showed a ∼15-fold decline in effective population size to ∼60,000 from mid- to late Pleistocene.

Conclusions

The annotated chromosome-length genome and high-density linkage map provide rich resources for evolutionary studies and will be fundamental in guiding conservation efforts for the helmeted honeyeater.

Parallel reduction in flowering time from de novo mutations enable evolutionary rescue in colonizing lineages

Understanding how populations adapt to abrupt environmental change is necessary to predict responses to future challenges, but identifying specific adaptive variants, quantifying their responses to selection and reconstructing their detailed histories is challenging in natural populations. Here, we use Arabidopsis from the Cape Verde Islands as a model to investigate the mechanisms of adaptation after a sudden shift to a more arid climate. We find genome-wide evidence of adaptation after a multivariate change in selection pressures. In particular, time to flowering is reduced in parallel across islands, substantially increasing fitness. This change is mediated by convergent de novo loss of function of two core flowering time genes: FRI on one island and FLC on the other. Evolutionary reconstructions reveal a case where expansion of the new populations coincided with the emergence and proliferation of these variants, consistent with models of rapid adaptation and evolutionary rescue.

Detailing how populations adapted to environmental change is needed to predict future responses, but identifying adaptive variants and detailing their fitness effects is rare. Here, the authors show that parallel loss of FRI and FLC function reduces time to flowering and drives adaptation in a drought prone environment.

Positive selection acts on regulatory genetic variants in populations of European ancestry that affect ALDH2 gene expression

ALDH2 is a key enzyme in alcohol metabolism that protects cells from acetaldehyde toxicity. Using iHS, iSAFE and FST statistics, we identified regulatory acting variants affecting ALDH2 gene expression under positive selection in populations of European ancestry. Several SNPs (rs3184504, rs4766578, rs10774625, rs597808, rs653178, rs847892, rs2013002) that function as eQTLs for ALDH2 in various tissues showed evidence of strong positive selection. Very large pairwise FST values indicated high genetic differentiation at these loci between populations of European ancestry and populations of other global ancestries. Estimating the timing of positive selection on the beneficial alleles suggests that these variants were recently adapted approximately 3000-3700 years ago. The derived beneficial alleles are in complete linkage disequilibrium with the derived ALDH2 promoter variant rs886205, which is associated with higher transcriptional activity. The SNPs rs4766578 and rs847892 are located in binding sequences for the transcription factor HNF4A, which is an important regulatory element of ALDH2 gene expression. In contrast to the missense variant ALDH2 rs671 (ALDH2*2), which is common only in East Asian populations and is associated with greatly reduced enzyme activity and alcohol intolerance, the beneficial alleles of the regulatory variants identified in this study are associated with increased expression of ALDH2. This suggests adaptation of Europeans to higher alcohol consumption.

Genomic consequences of domestication of the Siamese fighting fish

Siamese fighting (betta) fish are among the most popular and morphologically diverse pet fish, but the genetic bases of their domestication and phenotypic diversification are largely unknown. We assembled de novo the genome of a wild Betta splendens and whole-genome sequenced 98 individuals across five closely related species. We find evidence of bidirectional hybridization between domesticated ornamental betta and other wild Betta species. We discover dmrt1 as the main sex determination gene in ornamental betta and that it has lower penetrance in wild B. splendens. Furthermore, we find genes with signatures of recent, strong selection that have large effects on color in specific parts of the body or on the shape of individual fins and that most are unlinked. Our results demonstrate how simple genetic architectures paired with anatomical modularity can lead to vast phenotypic diversity generated during animal domestication and launch betta as a powerful new system for evolutionary genetics.

Bayesian inference of ancestral recombination graphs

We present a novel algorithm, implemented in the software ARGinfer, for probabilistic inference of the Ancestral Recombination Graph under the Coalescent with Recombination. Our Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm takes advantage of the Succinct Tree Sequence data structure that has allowed great advances in simulation and point estimation, but not yet probabilistic inference. Unlike previous methods, which employ the Sequentially Markov Coalescent approximation, ARGinfer uses the Coalescent with Recombination, allowing more accurate inference of key evolutionary parameters. We show using simulations that ARGinfer can accurately estimate many properties of the evolutionary history of the sample, including the topology and branch lengths of the genealogical tree at each sequence site, and the times and locations of mutation and recombination events. ARGinfer approximates posterior probability distributions for these and other quantities, providing interpretable assessments of uncertainty that we show to be well calibrated. ARGinfer is currently limited to tens of DNA sequences of several hundreds of kilobases, but has scope for further computational improvements to increase its applicability.

Origin and diversification of the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea): a within-species phylogenomic analysis

Reconstructing accurate historical relationships within a species poses numerous challenges, not least in many plant groups in which gene flow is high enough to extend well beyond species boundaries. Nonetheless, the extent of tree-like history within a species is an empirical question on which it is now possible to bring large amounts of genome sequence to bear. We assess phylogenetic structure across the geographic range of the saguaro cactus, an emblematic member of Cactaceae, a clade known for extensive hybridization and porous species boundaries. Using 200 Gb of whole genome resequencing data from 20 individuals sampled from 10 localities, we assembled two data sets comprising 150,000 biallelic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from protein coding sequences. From these we inferred within-species trees and evaluated their significance and robustness using five qualitatively different inference methods. Despite the low sequence diversity, large census population sizes, and presence of wide-ranging pollen and seed dispersal agents, phylogenetic trees were well resolved and highly consistent across both data sets and all methods. We inferred that the most likely root, based on marginal likelihood comparisons, is to the east and south of the region of highest genetic diversity, which lies along the coast of the Gulf of California in Sonora, Mexico. Together with striking decreases in marginal likelihood found to the north, this supports hypotheses that saguaro's current range reflects post-glacial expansion from the refugia in the south of its range. We conclude with observations about practical and theoretical issues raised by phylogenomic data sets within species, in which SNP-based methods must be used rather than gene tree methods that are widely used when sequence divergence is higher. These include computational scalability, inference of gene flow, and proper assessment of statistical support in the presence of linkage effects.

Inferring human evolutionary history

Unified genetic genealogy improves our understanding of how humans evolved.

A unified genealogy of modern and ancient genomes

The sequencing of modern and ancient genomes from around the world has revolutionized our understanding of human history and evolution. However, the problem of how best to characterize ancestral relationships from the totality of human genomic variation remains unsolved. Here, we address this challenge with nonparametric methods that enable us to infer a unified genealogy of modern and ancient humans. This compact representation of multiple datasets explores the challenges of missing and erroneous data and uses ancient samples to constrain and date relationships. We demonstrate the power of the method to recover relationships between individuals and populations as well as to identify descendants of ancient samples. Finally, we introduce a simple nonparametric estimator of the geographical location of ancestors that recapitulates key events in human history.

Supergene origin and maintenance in Atlantic cod

Supergenes are sets of genes that are inherited as a single marker and encode complex phenotypes through their joint action. They are identified in an increasing number of organisms, yet their origins and evolution remain enigmatic. In Atlantic cod, four megabase-scale supergenes have been identified and linked to migratory lifestyle and environmental adaptations. Here we investigate the origin and maintenance of these four supergenes through analysis of whole-genome-sequencing data, including a new long-read-based genome assembly for a non-migratory Atlantic cod individual. We corroborate the finding that chromosomal inversions underlie all four supergenes, and we show that they originated at different times between 0.40 and 1.66 million years ago. We reveal gene flux between supergene haplotypes where migratory and stationary Atlantic cod co-occur and conclude that this gene flux is driven by gene conversion, on the basis of an increase in GC content in exchanged sites. Additionally, we find evidence for double crossover between supergene haplotypes, leading to the exchange of an ~275 kilobase fragment with genes potentially involved in adaptation to low salinity in the Baltic Sea. Our results suggest that supergenes can be maintained over long timescales in the same way as hybridizing species, through the selective purging of introduced genetic variation.

Atlantic cod carries four supergenes linked to migratory lifestyle and environmental adaptations. Using whole-genome sequencing, the authors show that the genome inversions that underlie the supergenes originated at different times and show gene flux between supergene haplotypes.

Benchmarking phasing software with a whole-genome sequenced cattle pedigree

Background

Accurate haplotype reconstruction is required in many applications in quantitative and population genomics. Different phasing methods are available but their accuracy must be evaluated for samples with different properties (population structure, marker density, etc.). We herein took advantage of whole-genome sequence data available for a Holstein cattle pedigree containing 264 individuals, including 98 trios, to evaluate several population-based phasing methods. This data represents a typical example of a livestock population, with low effective population size, high levels of relatedness and long-range linkage disequilibrium.

Results

After stringent filtering of our sequence data, we evaluated several population-based phasing programs including one or more versions of AlphaPhase, ShapeIT, Beagle, Eagle and FImpute. To that end we used 98 individuals having both parents sequenced for validation. Their haplotypes reconstructed based on Mendelian segregation rules were considered the gold standard to assess the performance of population-based methods in two scenarios. In the first one, only these 98 individuals were phased, while in the second one, all the 264 sequenced individuals were phased simultaneously, ignoring the pedigree relationships. We assessed phasing accuracy based on switch error counts (SEC) and rates (SER), lengths of correctly phased haplotypes and the probability that there is no phasing error between a pair of SNPs as a function of their distance. For most evaluated metrics or scenarios, the best software was either ShapeIT4.1 or Beagle5.2, both methods resulting in particularly high phasing accuracies. For instance, ShapeIT4.1 achieved a median SEC of 50 per individual and a mean haplotype block length of 24.1 Mb (scenario 2). These statistics are remarkable since the methods were evaluated with a map of 8,400,000 SNPs, and this corresponds to only one switch error every 40,000 phased informative markers. When more relatives were included in the data (scenario 2), FImpute3.0 reconstructed extremely long segments without errors.

Conclusions

We report extremely high phasing accuracies in a typical livestock sample. ShapeIT4.1 and Beagle5.2 proved to be the most accurate, particularly for phasing long segments and in the first scenario. Nevertheless, most tools achieved high accuracy at short distances and would be suitable for applications requiring only local haplotypes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-022-08354-6.

Ongoing Recombination in SARS-CoV-2 Revealed Through Genealogical Reconstruction

The evolutionary process of genetic recombination has the potential to rapidly change the properties of a viral pathogen, and its presence is a crucial factor to consider in the development of treatments and vaccines. It can also significantly affect the results of phylogenetic analyses and the inference of evolutionary rates. The detection of recombination from samples of sequencing data is a very challenging problem, and is further complicated for SARS-CoV-2 by its relatively slow accumulation of genetic diversity. The extent to which recombination is ongoing for SARS-CoV-2 is not yet resolved. To address this, we use a parsimony-based method to reconstruct possible genealogical histories for samples of SARS-CoV-2 sequences, which enables us to pinpoint specific recombination events that could have generated the data. We propose a statistical framework for disentangling the effects of recurrent mutation from recombination in the history of a sample, and hence provide a way of estimating the probability that ongoing recombination is present. We apply this to samples of sequencing data collected in England and South Africa, and find evidence of ongoing recombination.

The estimates of effective population size based on linkage disequilibrium are virtually unaffected by natural selection

The effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter to quantify the magnitude of genetic drift and inbreeding, with important implications in human evolution. The increasing availability of high-density genetic markers allows the estimation of historical changes in N_e across time using measures of genome diversity or linkage disequilibrium between markers. Directional selection is expected to reduce diversity and N_e, and this reduction is modulated by the heterogeneity of the genome in terms of recombination rate. Here we investigate by computer simulations the consequences of selection (both positive and negative) and recombination rate heterogeneity in the estimation of historical N_e. We also investigate the relationship between diversity parameters and N_e across the different regions of the genome using human marker data. We show that the estimates of historical N_e obtained from linkage disequilibrium between markers (N_eLD) are virtually unaffected by selection. In contrast, those estimates obtained by coalescence mutation-recombination-based methods can be strongly affected by it, which could have important consequences for the estimation of human demography. The simulation results are supported by the analysis of human data. The estimates of N_eLD obtained for particular genomic regions do not correlate, or they do it very weakly, with recombination rate, nucleotide diversity, proportion of polymorphic sites, background selection statistic, minor allele frequency of SNPs, loss of function and missense variants and gene density. This suggests that N_eLD measures mainly reflect demographic changes in population size across generations.

The inference of the demographic history of populations is of great relevance in evolutionary biology. This inference can be made from genomic data using coalescence methods or linkage disequilibrium methods. However, the assessment of these methods is usually made assuming neutrality (absence of selection). Here we show by computer simulations and analyses of human data that the estimates of historical effective population size obtained from linkage disequilibrium between markers are virtually unaffected by natural selection, either positive or negative. In contrast, estimates obtained by coalescence mutation-recombination-based methods can be strongly affected by it, which could have important consequences for recent estimations of human demography.

Robust detection of natural selection using a probabilistic model of tree imbalance

Neutrality tests such as Tajima's D and Fay and Wu's H are standard implements in the population genetics toolbox. One of their most common uses is to scan the genome for signals of natural selection. However, it is well understood that D and H are confounded by other evolutionary forces-in particular, population expansion-that may be unrelated to selection. Because they are not model-based, it is not clear how to deconfound these tests in a principled way. In this article, we derive new likelihood-based methods for detecting natural selection, which are robust to fluctuations in effective population size. At the core of our method is a novel probabilistic model of tree imbalance, which generalizes Kingman's coalescent to allow certain aberrant tree topologies to arise more frequently than is expected under neutrality. We derive a frequency spectrum-based estimator that can be used in place of D, and also extend to the case where genealogies are first estimated. We benchmark our methods on real and simulated data, and provide an open source software implementation.

Repeated origins, widespread gene flow, and allelic interactions of target-site herbicide resistance mutations

Causal mutations and their frequency in agricultural fields are well-characterized for herbicide resistance. However, we still lack understanding of their evolutionary history: the extent of parallelism in the origins of target-site resistance (TSR), how long these mutations persist, how quickly they spread, and allelic interactions that mediate their selective advantage. We addressed these questions with genomic data from 19 agricultural populations of common waterhemp (Amaranthus tuberculatus), which we show to have undergone a massive expansion over the past century, with a contemporary effective population size estimate of 8 x 10⁷. We found variation at seven characterized TSR loci, two of which had multiple amino acid substitutions, and three of which were common. These three common resistance variants show extreme parallelism in their mutational origins, with gene flow having shaped their distribution across the landscape. Allele age estimates supported a strong role of adaptation from de novo mutations, with a median age of 30 suggesting that most resistance alleles arose soon after the onset of herbicide use. However, resistant lineages varied in both their age and evidence for selection over two different timescales, implying considerable heterogeneity in the forces that govern their persistence. Two such forces are intra- and inter-locus allelic interactions; we report a signal of extended haplotype competition between two common TSR alleles, and extreme linkage with genome-wide alleles with known functions in resistance adaptation. Together, this work reveals a remarkable example of spatial parallel evolution in a metapopulation, with important implications for the management of herbicide resistance.

Detecting Selection in Multiple Populations by Modeling Ancestral Admixture Components

One of the most powerful and commonly used approaches for detecting local adaptation in the genome is the identification of extreme allele frequency differences between populations. In this article, we present a new maximum likelihood method for finding regions under positive selection. It is based on a Gaussian approximation to allele frequency changes and it incorporates admixture between populations. The method can analyze multiple populations simultaneously and retains power to detect selection signatures specific to ancestry components that are not representative of any extant populations. Using simulated data, we compare our method to related approaches, and show that it is orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art, while retaining similar or higher power for most simulation scenarios. We also apply it to human genomic data and identify loci with extreme genetic differentiation between major geographic groups. Many of the genes identified are previously known selected loci relating to hair pigmentation and morphology, skin, and eye pigmentation. We also identify new candidate regions, including various selected loci in the Native American component of admixed Mexican-Americans. These involve diverse biological functions, such as immunity, fat distribution, food intake, vision, and hair development.

A Deep-Learning Approach for Inference of Selective Sweeps from the Ancestral Recombination Graph

Detecting signals of selection from genomic data is a central problem in population genetics. Coupling the rich information in the ancestral recombination graph (ARG) with a powerful and scalable deep-learning framework, we developed a novel method to detect and quantify positive selection: Selection Inference using the Ancestral recombination graph (SIA). Built on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture, a particular type of a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), SIA can be trained to explicitly infer a full range of selection coefficients, as well as the allele frequency trajectory and time of selection onset. We benchmarked SIA extensively on simulations under a European human demographic model, and found that it performs as well or better as some of the best available methods, including state-of-the-art machine-learning and ARG-based methods. In addition, we used SIA to estimate selection coefficients at several loci associated with human phenotypes of interest. SIA detected novel signals of selection particular to the European (CEU) population at the MC1R and ABCC11 loci. In addition, it recapitulated signals of selection at the LCT locus and several pigmentation-related genes. Finally, we reanalyzed polymorphism data of a collection of recently radiated southern capuchino seedeater taxa in the genus Sporophila to quantify the strength of selection and improved the power of our previous methods to detect partial soft sweeps. Overall, SIA uses deep learning to leverage the ARG and thereby provides new insight into how selective sweeps shape genomic diversity.

PopHumanVar: an interactive application for the functional characterization and prioritization of adaptive genomic variants in humans

Adaptive challenges that humans faced as they expanded across the globe left specific molecular footprints that can be decoded in our today's genomes. Different sets of metrics are used to identify genomic regions that have undergone selection. However, there are fewer methods capable of pinpointing the allele ultimately responsible for this selection. Here, we present PopHumanVar, an interactive online application that is designed to facilitate the exploration and thorough analysis of candidate genomic regions by integrating both functional and population genomics data currently available. PopHumanVar generates useful summary reports of prioritized variants that are putatively causal of recent selective sweeps. It compiles data and graphically represents different layers of information, including natural selection statistics, as well as functional annotations and genealogical estimations of variant age, for biallelic single nucleotide variants (SNVs) of the 1000 Genomes Project phase 3. Specifically, PopHumanVar amasses SNV-based information from GEVA, SnpEFF, GWAS Catalog, ClinVar, RegulomeDB and DisGeNET databases, as well as accurate estimations of iHS, nSL and iSAFE statistics. Notably, PopHumanVar can successfully identify known causal variants of frequently reported candidate selection regions, including EDAR in East-Asians, ACKR1 (DARC) in Africans and LCT/MCM6 in Europeans. PopHumanVar is open and freely available at https://pophumanvar.uab.cat.

Polygenic adaptation after a sudden change in environment

Polygenic adaptation is thought to be ubiquitous, yet remains poorly understood. Here, we model this process analytically, in the plausible setting of a highly polygenic, quantitative trait that experiences a sudden shift in the fitness optimum. We show how the mean phenotype changes over time, depending on the effect sizes of loci that contribute to variance in the trait, and characterize the allele dynamics at these loci. Notably, we describe the two phases of the allele dynamics: The first is a rapid phase, in which directional selection introduces small frequency differences between alleles whose effects are aligned with or opposed to the shift, ultimately leading to small differences in their probability of fixation during a second, longer phase, governed by stabilizing selection. As we discuss, key results should hold in more general settings and have important implications for efforts to identify the genetic basis of adaptation in humans and other species.

Three assays for in-solution enrichment of ancient human DNA at more than a million SNPs

The strategy of in-solution enrichment for hundreds of thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has been used to analyze >70% of individuals with genome-scale ancient DNA published to date. This approach makes it economical to study ancient samples with low proportions of human DNA and increases the rate of conversion of sampled remains into interpretable data. So far, nearly all such data have been generated using a set of bait sequences targeting about 1.24 million SNPs (the "1240k reagent"), but synthesis of the reagent has been cost-effective for only a few laboratories. In 2021, two companies, Daicel Arbor Biosciences and Twist Bioscience, made available assays that target the same core set of SNPs along with supplementary content. We test all three assays on a common set of 27 ancient DNA libraries and show that all three are effective at enriching many hundreds of thousands of SNPs. For all assays, one round of enrichment produces data that are as useful as two. In our testing, the "Twist Ancient DNA" assay produces the highest coverages, greatest uniformity on targeted positions, and almost no bias toward enriching one allele more than another relative to shotgun sequencing. We also identify hundreds of thousands of targeted SNPs for which there is minimal allelic bias when comparing 1240k data to either shotgun or Twist data. This facilitates coanalysis of the large data sets that have been generated using 1240k and Twist capture, as well as shotgun sequencing approaches.

Efficient ancestry and mutation simulation with msprime 1.0

Stochastic simulation is a key tool in population genetics, since the models involved are often analytically intractable and simulation is usually the only way of obtaining ground-truth data to evaluate inferences. Because of this, a large number of specialized simulation programs have been developed, each filling a particular niche, but with largely overlapping functionality and a substantial duplication of effort. Here, we introduce msprime version 1.0, which efficiently implements ancestry and mutation simulations based on the succinct tree sequence data structure and the tskit library. We summarize msprime’s many features, and show that its performance is excellent, often many times faster and more memory efficient than specialized alternatives. These high-performance features have been thoroughly tested and validated, and built using a collaborative, open source development model, which reduces duplication of effort and promotes software quality via community engagement.

Using singleton densities to detect recent selection in Bos taurus

Many quantitative traits are subject to polygenic selection, where several genomic regions undergo small, simultaneous changes in allele frequency that collectively alter a phenotype. The widespread availability of genome data, along with novel statistical techniques, has made it easier to detect these changes. We apply one such method, the "Singleton Density Score" (SDS), to the Holstein breed of Bos taurus to detect recent selection (arising up to around 740 years ago). We identify several genes as candidates for targets of recent selection, including some relating to cell regulation, catabolic processes, neural-cell adhesion and immunity. We do not find strong evidence that three traits that are important to humans-milk protein content, milk fat content, and stature-have been subject to directional selection. Simulations demonstrate that because B. taurus recently experienced a population bottleneck, singletons are depleted so the power of SDS methods is reduced. These results inform on which genes underlie recent genetic change in B. taurus, while providing information on how polygenic selection can be best investigated in future studies.

A selection pressure landscape for 870 human polygenic traits

Characterizing the natural selection of complex traits is important for understanding human evolution and both biological and pathological mechanisms. We leveraged genome-wide summary statistics for 870 polygenic traits and attempted to quantify signals of selection on traits of different forms in European ancestry across four periods in human history and evolution. We found that 88% of these traits underwent polygenic change in the past 2,000-3,000 years. Recent selection was associated with ancient selection signals in the same trait. Traits related to pigmentation, body measurement and nutritional intake exhibited strong selection signals across different time scales. Our findings are limited by our use of exclusively European data and the use of genome-wide association study data, which identify associations between genetic variants and phenotypes that may not be causal. In sum, we provide an overview of signals of selection on human polygenic traits and their characteristics across human evolution, based on a European subset of human genetic diversity. These findings could serve as a foundation for further populational and medical genetic studies.

Mutation saturation for fitness effects at human CpG sites

Whole exome sequences have now been collected for millions of humans, with the related goals of identifying pathogenic mutations in patients and establishing reference repositories of data from unaffected individuals. As a result, we are approaching an important limit, in which datasets are large enough that, in the absence of natural selection, every highly mutable site will have experienced at least one mutation in the genealogical history of the sample. Here, we focus on CpG sites that are methylated in the germline and experience mutations to T at an elevated rate of ~10-7 per site per generation; considering synonymous mutations in a sample of 390,000 individuals, ~ 99 % of such CpG sites harbor a C/T polymorphism. Methylated CpG sites provide a natural mutation saturation experiment for fitness effects: as we show, at nt sample sizes, not seeing a non-synonymous polymorphism is indicative of strong selection against that mutation. We rely on this idea in order to directly identify a subset of CpG transitions that are likely to be highly deleterious, including ~27 % of possible loss-of-function mutations, and up to 20 % of possible missense mutations, depending on the type of functional site in which they occur. Unlike methylated CpGs, most mutation types, with rates on the order of 10-8 or 10-9, remain very far from saturation. We discuss what these findings imply for interpreting the potential clinical relevance of mutations from their presence or absence in reference databases and for inferences about the fitness effects of new mutations.

Revisiting the out of Africa event with a deep-learning approach

Anatomically modern humans evolved around 300 thousand years ago in Africa. They started to appear in the fossil record outside of Africa as early as 100 thousand years ago, although other hominins existed throughout Eurasia much earlier. Recently, several studies argued in favor of a single out of Africa event for modern humans on the basis of whole-genome sequence analyses. However, the single out of Africa model is in contrast with some of the findings from fossil records, which support two out of Africa events, and uniparental data, which propose a back to Africa movement. Here, we used a deep-learning approach coupled with approximate Bayesian computation and sequential Monte Carlo to revisit these hypotheses from the whole-genome sequence perspective. Our results support the back to Africa model over other alternatives. We estimated that there are two sequential separations between Africa and out of African populations happening around 60-90 thousand years ago and separated by 13-15 thousand years. One of the populations resulting from the more recent split has replaced the older West African population to a large extent, while the other one has founded the out of Africa populations.

Chromosome-scale inference of hybrid speciation and admixture with convolutional neural networks

Inferring the frequency and mode of hybridization among closely related organisms is an important step for understanding the process of speciation and can help to uncover reticulated patterns of phylogeny more generally. Phylogenomic methods to test for the presence of hybridization come in many varieties and typically operate by leveraging expected patterns of genealogical discordance in the absence of hybridization. An important assumption made by these tests is that the data (genes or SNPs) are independent given the species tree. However, when the data are closely linked, it is especially important to consider their nonindependence. Recently, deep learning techniques such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been used to perform population genetic inferences with linked SNPs coded as binary images. Here, we use CNNs for selecting among candidate hybridization scenarios using the tree topology (((P1 , P2 ), P3 ), Out) and a matrix of pairwise nucleotide divergence (dXY ) calculated in windows across the genome. Using coalescent simulations to train and independently test a neural network showed that our method, HyDe-CNN, was able to accurately perform model selection for hybridization scenarios across a wide breath of parameter space. We then used HyDe-CNN to test models of admixture in Heliconius butterflies, as well as comparing it to phylogeny-based introgression statistics. Given the flexibility of our approach, the dropping cost of long-read sequencing and the continued improvement of CNN architectures, we anticipate that inferences of hybridization using deep learning methods like ours will help researchers to better understand patterns of admixture in their study organisms.

The Opportunities and Challenges of Integrating Population Histories Into Genetic Studies for Diverse Populations: A Motivating Example From Native Hawaiians

There is a well-recognized need to include diverse populations in genetic studies, but several obstacles continue to be prohibitive, including (but are not limited to) the difficulty of recruiting individuals from diverse populations in large numbers and the lack of representation in available genomic references. These obstacles notwithstanding, studying multiple diverse populations would provide informative, population-specific insights. Using Native Hawaiians as an example of an understudied population with a unique evolutionary history, I will argue that by developing key genomic resources and integrating evolutionary thinking into genetic epidemiology, we will have the opportunity to efficiently advance our knowledge of the genetic risk factors, ameliorate health disparity, and improve healthcare in this underserved population.

Decreased recent adaptation at human mendelian disease genes as a possible consequence of interference between advantageous and deleterious variants

Advances in genome sequencing have improved our understanding of the genetic basis of human diseases, and thousands of human genes have been associated with different diseases. Recent genomic adaptation at disease genes has not been well characterized. Here, we compare the rate of strong recent adaptation in the form of selective sweeps between mendelian, non-infectious disease genes and non-disease genes across distinct human populations from the 1000 Genomes Project. We find that mendelian disease genes have experienced far less selective sweeps compared to non-disease genes especially in Africa. Investigating further the possible causes of the sweep deficit at disease genes, we find that this deficit is very strong at disease genes with both low recombination rates and with high numbers of associated disease variants, but is almost non-existent at disease genes with higher recombination rates or lower numbers of associated disease variants. Because segregating recessive deleterious variants have the ability to interfere with adaptive ones, these observations strongly suggest that adaptation has been slowed down by the presence of interfering recessive deleterious variants at disease genes. These results suggest that disease genes suffer from a transient inability to adapt as fast as the rest of the genome.

Evaluating the Impact of Sex-Biased Genetic Admixture in the Americas through the Analysis of Haplotype Data

A general imbalance in the proportion of disembarked males and females in the Americas has been documented during the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade and the Colonial Era and, although less prominent, more recently. This imbalance may have left a signature on the genomes of modern-day populations characterised by high levels of admixture. The analysis of the uniparental systems and the evaluation of continental proportion ratio of autosomal and X chromosomes revealed a general sex imbalance towards males for European and females for African and Indigenous American ancestries. However, the consistency and degree of this imbalance are variable, suggesting that other factors, such as cultural and social practices, may have played a role in shaping it. Moreover, very few investigations have evaluated the sex imbalance using haplotype data, containing more critical information than genotypes. Here, we analysed genome-wide data for more than 5000 admixed American individuals to assess the presence, direction and magnitude of sex-biased admixture in the Americas. For this purpose, we applied two haplotype-based approaches, ELAI and NNLS, and we compared them with a genotype-based method, ADMIXTURE. In doing so, besides a general agreement between methods, we unravelled that the post-colonial admixture dynamics show higher complexity than previously described.

Sweeps in time: leveraging the joint distribution of branch lengths

Current methods of identifying positively selected regions in the genome are limited in two key ways: the underlying models cannot account for the timing of adaptive events and the comparison between models of selective sweeps and sequence data is generally made via simple summaries of genetic diversity. Here, we develop a tractable method of describing the effect of positive selection on the genealogical histories in the surrounding genome, explicitly modeling both the timing and context of an adaptive event. In addition, our framework allows us to go beyond analyzing polymorphism data via the site frequency spectrum or summaries thereof and instead leverage information contained in patterns of linked variants. Tests on both simulations and a human data example, as well as a comparison to SweepFinder2, show that even with very small sample sizes, our analytic framework has higher power to identify old selective sweeps and to correctly infer both the time and strength of selection. Finally, we derived the marginal distribution of genealogical branch lengths at a locus affected by selection acting at a linked site. This provides a much-needed link between our analytic understanding of the effects of sweeps on sequence variation and recent advances in simulation and heuristic inference procedures that allow researchers to examine the sequence of genealogical histories along the genome.

Sex-specific phenotypic effects and evolutionary history of an ancient polymorphic deletion of the human growth hormone receptor

The common deletion of the third exon of the growth hormone receptor gene (GHRd3) in humans is associated with birth weight, growth after birth, and time of puberty. However, its evolutionary history and the molecular mechanisms through which it affects phenotypes remain unresolved. We present evidence that this deletion was nearly fixed in the ancestral population of anatomically modern humans and Neanderthals but underwent a recent adaptive reduction in frequency in East Asia. We documented that GHRd3 is associated with protection from severe malnutrition. Using a novel mouse model, we found that, under calorie restriction, Ghrd3 leads to the female-like gene expression in male livers and the disappearance of sexual dimorphism in weight. The sex- and diet-dependent effects of GHRd3 in our mouse model are consistent with a model in which the allele frequency of GHRd3 varies throughout human evolution as a response to fluctuations in resource availability.

Discovery and implications of polygenicity of common diseases

The sequencing of the human genome has allowed the study of the genetic architecture of common diseases: the number of genomic variants that contribute to risk of disease and their joint frequency and effect size distribution. Common diseases are polygenic, with many loci contributing to phenotype, and the cumulative burden of risk alleles determines individual risk in conjunction with environmental factors. Most risk loci occur in noncoding regions of the genome regulating cell- and context-specific gene expression. Although the effect sizes of most risk alleles are small, their cumulative effects in individuals, quantified as a polygenic (risk) score, can identify people at increased risk of disease, thereby facilitating prevention or early intervention.

Parental relatedness through time revealed by runs of homozygosity in ancient DNA

Parental relatedness of present-day humans varies substantially across the globe, but little is known about the past. Here we analyze ancient DNA, leveraging that parental relatedness leaves genomic traces in the form of runs of homozygosity. We present an approach to identify such runs in low-coverage ancient DNA data aided by haplotype information from a modern phased reference panel. Simulation and experiments show that this method robustly detects runs of homozygosity longer than 4 centimorgan for ancient individuals with at least 0.3 × coverage. Analyzing genomic data from 1,785 ancient humans who lived in the last 45,000 years, we detect low rates of first cousin or closer unions across most ancient populations. Moreover, we find a marked decay in background parental relatedness co-occurring with or shortly after the advent of sedentary agriculture. We observe this signal, likely linked to increasing local population sizes, across several geographic transects worldwide.

Inferring Population Histories for Ancient Genomes Using Genome-Wide Genealogies

Ancient genomes anchor genealogies in directly observed historical genetic variation and contextualize ancestral lineages with archaeological insights into their geography and cultural associations. However, the majority of ancient genomes are of lower coverage and cannot be directly built into genealogies. Here, we present a fast and scalable method, Colate, the first approach for inferring ancestral relationships through time between low-coverage genomes without requiring phasing or imputation. Our approach leverages sharing patterns of mutations dated using a genealogy to infer coalescence rates. For deeply sequenced ancient genomes, we additionally introduce an extension of the Relate algorithm for joint inference of genealogies incorporating such genomes. Application to 278 present-day and 430 ancient DNA samples of >0.5x mean coverage allows us to identify dynamic population structure and directional gene flow between early farmer and European hunter-gatherer groups. We further show that the previously reported, but still unexplained, increase in the TCC/TTC mutation rate, which is strongest in West Eurasia today, was already present at similar strength and widespread in the Late Glacial Period ~10k-15k years ago, but is not observed in samples >30k years old. It is strongest in Neolithic farmers, and highly correlated with recent coalescence rates between other genomes and a 10,000-year-old Anatolian hunter-gatherer. This suggests gene-flow among ancient peoples postdating the last glacial maximum as widespread and localizes the driver of this mutational signal in both time and geography in that region. Our approach should be widely applicable in future for addressing other evolutionary questions, and in other species.

An ancient viral epidemic involving host coronavirus interacting genes more than 20,000 years ago in East Asia

The current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has emphasized the vulnerability of human populations to novel viral pressures, despite the vast array of epidemiological and biomedical tools now available. Notably, modern human genomes contain evolutionary information tracing back tens of thousands of years, which may help identify the viruses that have impacted our ancestors-pointing to which viruses have future pandemic potential. Here, we apply evolutionary analyses to human genomic datasets to recover selection events involving tens of human genes that interact with coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, that likely started more than 20,000 years ago. These adaptive events were limited to the population ancestral to East Asian populations. Multiple lines of functional evidence support an ancient viral selective pressure, and East Asia is the geographical origin of several modern coronavirus epidemics. An arms race with an ancient coronavirus, or with a different virus that happened to use similar interactions as coronaviruses with human hosts, may thus have taken place in ancestral East Asian populations. By learning more about our ancient viral foes, our study highlights the promise of evolutionary information to better predict the pandemics of the future. Importantly, adaptation to ancient viral epidemics in specific human populations does not necessarily imply any difference in genetic susceptibility between different human populations, and the current evidence points toward an overwhelming impact of socioeconomic factors in the case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).