Genetic influence on within-person longitudinal change in anthropometric traits in the UK Biobank

The causes of temporal fluctuations in adult traits are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the genetic determinants of within-person trait variability of 8 repeatedly measured anthropometric traits in 50,117 individuals from the UK Biobank. We found that within-person (non-directional) variability had a SNP-based heritability of 2-5% for height, sitting height, body mass index (BMI) and weight (P ≤ 2.4 × 10-3). We also analysed longitudinal trait change and show a loss of both average height and weight beyond about 70 years of age. A variant tracking the Alzheimer's risk APOE- E 4 allele (rs429358) was significantly associated with weight loss ( β  = -0.047 kg per yr, s.e. 0.007, P = 2.2 × 10-11), and using 2-sample Mendelian Randomisation we detected a relationship consistent with causality between decreased lumbar spine bone mineral density and height loss (bxy = 0.011, s.e. 0.003, P = 3.5 × 10-4). Finally, population-level variance quantitative trait loci (vQTL) were consistent with within-person variability for several traits, indicating an overlap between trait variability assessed at the population or individual level. Our findings help elucidate the genetic influence on trait-change within an individual and highlight disease risks associated with these changes.

Leveraging functional genomic annotations and genome coverage to improve polygenic prediction of complex traits within and between ancestries

We develop a method, SBayesRC, that integrates genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics with functional genomic annotations to improve polygenic prediction of complex traits. Our method is scalable to whole-genome variant analysis and refines signals from functional annotations by allowing them to affect both causal variant probability and causal effect distribution. We analyze 50 complex traits and diseases using ∼7 million common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 96 annotations. SBayesRC improves prediction accuracy by 14% in European ancestry and up to 34% in cross-ancestry prediction compared to the baseline method SBayesR, which does not use annotations, and outperforms other methods, including LDpred2, LDpred-funct, MegaPRS, PolyPred-S and PRS-CSx. Investigation of factors affecting prediction accuracy identifies a significant interaction between SNP density and annotation information, suggesting whole-genome sequence variants with annotations may further improve prediction. Functional partitioning analysis highlights a major contribution of evolutionary constrained regions to prediction accuracy and the largest per-SNP contribution from nonsynonymous SNPs.

Genome-wide analysis in over 1 million individuals of European ancestry yields improved polygenic risk scores for blood pressure traits

Hypertension affects more than one billion people worldwide. Here we identify 113 novel loci, reporting a total of 2,103 independent genetic signals (P < 5 × 10-8) from the largest single-stage blood pressure (BP) genome-wide association study to date (n = 1,028,980 European individuals). These associations explain more than 60% of single nucleotide polymorphism-based BP heritability. Comparing top versus bottom deciles of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) reveals clinically meaningful differences in BP (16.9 mmHg systolic BP, 95% CI, 15.5-18.2 mmHg, P = 2.22 × 10-126) and more than a sevenfold higher odds of hypertension risk (odds ratio, 7.33; 95% CI, 5.54-9.70; P = 4.13 × 10-44) in an independent dataset. Adding PRS into hypertension-prediction models increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) from 0.791 (95% CI, 0.781-0.801) to 0.826 (95% CI, 0.817-0.836, ∆AUROC, 0.035, P = 1.98 × 10-34). We compare the 2,103 loci results in non-European ancestries and show significant PRS associations in a large African-American sample. Secondary analyses implicate 500 genes previously unreported for BP. Our study highlights the role of increasingly large genomic studies for precision health research.

Genetic control of DNA methylation is largely shared across European and East Asian populations

DNA methylation is an ideal trait to study the extent of the shared genetic control across ancestries, effectively providing hundreds of thousands of model molecular traits with large QTL effect sizes. We investigate cis DNAm QTLs in three European (n = 3701) and two East Asian (n = 2099) cohorts to quantify the similarities and differences in the genetic architecture across populations. We observe 80,394 associated mQTLs (62.2% of DNAm probes with significant mQTL) to be significant in both ancestries, while 28,925 mQTLs (22.4%) are identified in only a single ancestry. mQTL effect sizes are highly conserved across populations, with differences in mQTL discovery likely due to differences in allele frequency of associated variants and differing linkage disequilibrium between causal variants and assayed SNPs. This study highlights the overall similarity of genetic control across ancestries and the value of ancestral diversity in increasing the power to detect associations and enhancing fine mapping resolution.

Unravelling the complex causal effects of substance use behaviours on common diseases

BACKGROUND

Substance use behaviours (SUB) including smoking, alcohol consumption, and coffee intake are associated with many health outcomes. However, whether the health effects of SUB are causal remains controversial, especially for alcohol consumption and coffee intake.

METHODS

In this study, we assess 11 commonly used Mendelian Randomization (MR) methods by simulation and apply them to investigate the causal relationship between 7 SUB traits and health outcomes. We also combine stratified regression, genetic correlation, and MR analyses to investigate the dosage-dependent effects.

RESULTS

We show that smoking initiation has widespread risk effects on common diseases such as asthma, type 2 diabetes, and peripheral vascular disease. Alcohol consumption shows risk effects specifically on cardiovascular diseases, dyslipidemia, and hypertensive diseases. We find evidence of dosage-dependent effects of coffee and tea intake on common diseases (e.g., cardiovascular disease and osteoarthritis). We observe that the minor allele effect of rs4410790 (the top signal for tea intake level) is negative on heavy tea intake ( b ̂ G W A S = - 0.091 , s . e . = 0.007 , P = 4.90 × 10 - 35 ) but positive on moderate tea intake ( b ̂ G W A S = 0.034 , s . e . = 0.006 , P = 3.40 × 10 - 8 ) , compared to the non-tea-drinkers.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals the complexity of the health effects of SUB and informs design for future studies aiming to dissect the causal relationships between behavioural traits and complex diseases.

Cross-ancestry analyses identify new genetic loci associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D

Vitamin D status-a complex trait influenced by environmental and genetic factors-is tightly associated with skin colour and ancestry. Yet very few studies have investigated the genetic underpinnings of vitamin D levels across diverse ancestries, and the ones that have, relied on small sample sizes, resulting in inconclusive results. Here, we conduct genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD)-the main circulating form of vitamin D-in 442,435 individuals from four broad genetically-determined ancestry groups represented in the UK Biobank: European (N = 421,867), South Asian (N = 9,983), African (N = 8,306) and East Asian (N = 2,279). We identify a new genetic determinant of 25OHD (rs146759773) in individuals of African ancestry, which was not detected in previous analysis of much larger European cohorts due to low minor allele frequency. We show genome-wide significant evidence of dominance effects in 25OHD that protect against vitamin D deficiency. Given that key events in the synthesis of 25OHD occur in the skin and are affected by pigmentation levels, we conduct GWAS of 25OHD stratified by skin colour and identify new associations. Lastly, we test the interaction between skin colour and variants associated with variance in 25OHD levels and identify two loci (rs10832254 and rs1352846) whose association with 25OHD differs in individuals of distinct complexions. Collectively, our results provide new insights into the complex relationship between 25OHD and skin colour and highlight the importance of diversity in genomic studies. Despite the much larger rates of vitamin D deficiency that we and others report for ancestry groups with dark skin (e.g., South Asian), our study highlights the importance of considering ancestral background and/or skin colour when assessing the implications of low vitamin D.

Boosting the power of genome-wide association studies within and across ancestries by using polygenic scores

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been mostly conducted in populations of European ancestry, which currently limits the transferability of their findings to other populations. Here, we show, through theory, simulations and applications to real data, that adjustment of GWAS analyses for polygenic scores (PGSs) increases the statistical power for discovery across all ancestries. We applied this method to analyze seven traits available in three large biobanks with participants of East Asian ancestry (n = 340,000 in total) and report 139 additional associations across traits. We also present a two-stage meta-analysis strategy whereby, in contributing cohorts, a PGS-adjusted GWAS is rerun using PGSs derived from a first round of a standard meta-analysis. On average, across traits, this approach yields a 1.26-fold increase in the number of detected associations (range 1.07- to 1.76-fold increase). Altogether, our study demonstrates the value of using PGSs to increase the power of GWASs in underrepresented populations and promotes such an analytical strategy for future GWAS meta-analyses.

Community-wide genome sequencing reveals 30 years of Darwin's finch evolution

A fundamental goal in evolutionary biology is to understand the genetic architecture of adaptive traits. Using whole-genome data of 3955 of Darwin's finches on the Galápagos Island of Daphne Major, we identified six loci of large effect that explain 45% of the variation in the highly heritable beak size of Geospiza fortis, a key ecological trait. The major locus is a supergene comprising four genes. Abrupt changes in allele frequencies at the loci accompanied a strong change in beak size caused by natural selection during a drought. A gradual change in Geospiza scandens occurred across 30 years as a result of introgressive hybridization with G. fortis. This study shows how a few loci with large effect on a fitness-related trait contribute to the genetic potential for rapid adaptive radiation.

Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms shape human brain morphology

The impact of chromosomal inversions on human brain morphology remains underexplored. We studied 35 common inversions classified from genotypes of 33,018 adults with European ancestry. The inversions at 2p22.3, 16p11.2, and 17q21.31 reach genome-wide significance, followed by 8p23.1 and 6p21.33, in their association with cortical and subcortical morphology. The 17q21.31, 8p23.1, and 16p11.2 regions comprise the LRRC37, OR7E, and NPIP duplicated gene families. We find the 17q21.31 MAPT inversion region, known for harboring neurological risk, to be the most salient locus among common variants for shaping and patterning the cortex. Overall, we observe the inverted orientations decreasing brain size, with the exception that the 2p22.3 inversion is associated with increased subcortical volume and the 8p23.1 inversion is associated with increased motor cortex. These significant inversions are in the genomic hotspots of neuropsychiatric loci. Our findings are generalizable to 3,472 children and demonstrate inversions as essential genetic variation to understand human brain phenotypes.

Joint analysis of GWAS and multi-omics QTL summary statistics reveals a large fraction of GWAS signals shared with molecular phenotypes

Molecular quantitative trait loci (xQTLs) are often harnessed to prioritize genes or functional elements underpinning variant-trait associations identified from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Here, we introduce OPERA, a method that jointly analyzes GWAS and multi-omics xQTL summary statistics to enhance the identification of molecular phenotypes associated with complex traits through shared causal variants. Applying OPERA to summary-level GWAS data for 50 complex traits (n = 20,833-766,345) and xQTL data from seven omics layers (n = 100-31,684) reveals that 50% of the GWAS signals are shared with at least one molecular phenotype. GWAS signals shared with multiple molecular phenotypes, such as those at the MSMB locus for prostate cancer, are particularly informative for understanding the genetic regulatory mechanisms underlying complex traits. Future studies with more molecular phenotypes, measured considering spatiotemporal effects in larger samples, are required to obtain a more saturated map linking molecular intermediates to GWAS signals.

Polygenic risk prediction: why and when out-of-sample prediction R2 can exceed SNP-based heritability

In polygenic score (PGS) analysis, the coefficient of determination (R2) is a key statistic to evaluate efficacy. R2 is the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by the PGS, calculated in a cohort that is independent of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) that provided estimates of allelic effect sizes. The SNP-based heritability (hSNP2, the proportion of total phenotypic variances attributable to all common SNPs) is the theoretical upper limit of the out-of-sample prediction R2. However, in real data analyses R2 has been reported to exceed hSNP2, which occurs in parallel with the observation that hSNP2 estimates tend to decline as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. Here, we quantify why and when these observations are expected. Using theory and simulation, we show that if heterogeneities in cohort-specific hSNP2 exist, or if genetic correlations between cohorts are less than one, hSNP2 estimates can decrease as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. We derive conditions when the out-of-sample prediction R2 will be greater than hSNP2 and show the validity of our derivations with real data from a binary trait (major depression) and a continuous trait (educational attainment). Our research calls for a better approach to integrating information from multiple cohorts to address issues of between-cohort heterogeneity.

Rare genetic variants underlie outlying levels of DNA methylation and gene-expression

Testing the effect of rare variants on phenotypic variation is difficult due to the need for extremely large cohorts to identify associated variants given expected effect sizes. An alternative approach is to investigate the effect of rare genetic variants on DNA methylation (DNAm) as effect sizes are expected to be larger for molecular traits compared with complex traits. Here, we investigate DNAm in healthy ageing populations-the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 and 1936-and identify both transient and stable outlying DNAm levels across the genome. We find an enrichment of rare genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 1 kb of DNAm sites in individuals with stable outlying DNAm, implying genetic control of this extreme variation. Using a family-based cohort, the Brisbane Systems Genetics Study, we observed increased sharing of DNAm outliers among more closely related individuals, consistent with these outliers being driven by rare genetic variation. We demonstrated that outlying DNAm levels have a functional consequence on gene expression levels, with extreme levels of DNAm being associated with gene expression levels toward the tails of the population distribution. This study demonstrates the role of rare SNPs in the phenotypic variation of DNAm and the effect of extreme levels of DNAm on gene expression.

Interactions between the lipidome and genetic and environmental factors in autism

Autism omics research has historically been reductionist and diagnosis centric, with little attention paid to common co-occurring conditions (for example, sleep and feeding disorders) and the complex interplay between molecular profiles and neurodevelopment, genetics, environmental factors and health. Here we explored the plasma lipidome (783 lipid species) in 765 children (485 diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD)) within the Australian Autism Biobank. We identified lipids associated with ASD diagnosis (n = 8), sleep disturbances (n = 20) and cognitive function (n = 8) and found that long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids may causally contribute to sleep disturbances mediated by the FADS gene cluster. We explored the interplay of environmental factors with neurodevelopment and the lipidome, finding that sleep disturbances and unhealthy diet have a convergent lipidome profile (with potential mediation by the microbiome) that is also independently associated with poorer adaptive function. In contrast, ASD lipidome differences were accounted for by dietary differences and sleep disturbances. We identified a large chr19p13.2 copy number variant genetic deletion spanning the LDLR gene and two high-confidence ASD genes (ELAVL3 and SMARCA4) in one child with an ASD diagnosis and widespread low-density lipoprotein-related lipidome derangements. Lipidomics captures the complexity of neurodevelopment, as well as the biological effects of conditions that commonly affect quality of life among autistic people.

15 years of GWAS discovery: Realizing the promise

It has been 15 years since the advent of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) era. Here, we review how this experimental design has realized its promise by facilitating an impressive range of discoveries with remarkable impact on multiple fields, including population genetics, complex trait genetics, epidemiology, social science, and medicine. We predict that the emergence of large-scale biobanks will continue to expand to more diverse populations and capture more of the allele frequency spectrum through whole-genome sequencing, which will further improve our ability to investigate the causes and consequences of human genetic variation for complex traits and diseases.

Genetic and modifiable risk factors combine multiplicatively in common disease

BACKGROUND

The joint contribution of genetic and environmental exposures to noncommunicable diseases is not well characterized.

OBJECTIVES

We modeled the cumulative effects of common risk alleles and their prevalence variations with classical risk factors.

METHODS

We analyzed mathematically and statistically numbers and effect sizes of established risk alleles for coronary artery disease (CAD) and other conditions.

RESULTS

In UK Biobank, risk alleles counts in the lowest (175.4) and highest decile (205.7) of the distribution differed by only 16.9%, which nevertheless increased CAD prevalence 3.4-fold (p < 0.01). Irrespective of the affected gene, a single risk allele multiplied the effects of all others carried by a person, resulting in a 2.9-fold stronger effect size in the top versus the bottom decile (p < 0.01) and an exponential increase in risk (R > 0.94). Classical risk factors shifted effect sizes to the steep upslope of the logarithmic function linking risk allele numbers with CAD prevalence. Similar phenomena were observed in the Estonian Biobank and for risk alleles affecting diabetes mellitus, breast and prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Alleles predisposing to common diseases can be carried safely in large numbers, but few additional ones lead to sharp risk increments. Here, we describe exponential functions by which risk alleles combine interchangeably but multiplicatively with each other and with modifiable risk factors to affect prevalence. Our data suggest that the biological systems underlying these diseases are modulated by hundreds of genes but become only fragile when a narrow window of total risk, irrespective of its genetic or environmental origins, has been passed.

Estimation and implications of the genetic architecture of fasting and non-fasting blood glucose

The genetic regulation of post-prandial glucose levels is poorly understood. Here, we characterise the genetic architecture of blood glucose variably measured within 0 and 24 h of fasting in 368,000 European ancestry participants of the UK Biobank. We found a near-linear increase in the heritability of non-fasting glucose levels over time, which plateaus to its fasting state value after 5 h post meal (h² = 11%; standard error: 1%). The genetic correlation between different fasting times is > 0.77, suggesting that the genetic control of glucose is largely constant across fasting durations. Accounting for heritability differences between fasting times leads to a ~16% improvement in the discovery of genetic variants associated with glucose. Newly detected variants improve the prediction of fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes in independent samples. Finally, we meta-analysed summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of random and fasting glucose (N = 518,615) and identified 156 independent SNPs explaining 3% of fasting glucose variance. Altogether, our study demonstrates the utility of random glucose measures to improve the discovery of genetic variants associated with glucose homeostasis, even in fasting conditions.

mBAT-combo: A more powerful test to detect gene-trait associations from GWAS data

Gene-based association tests aggregate multiple SNP-trait associations into sets defined by gene boundaries and are widely used in post-GWAS analysis. A common approach for gene-based tests is to combine SNPs associations by computing the sum of χ² statistics. However, this strategy ignores the directions of SNP effects, which could result in a loss of power for SNPs with masking effects, e.g., when the product of two SNP effects and the linkage disequilibrium (LD) correlation is negative. Here, we introduce "mBAT-combo," a set-based test that is better powered than other methods to detect multi-SNP associations in the context of masking effects. We validate the method through simulations and applications to real data. We find that of 35 blood and urine biomarker traits in the UK Biobank, 34 traits show evidence for masking effects in a total of 4,273 gene-trait pairs, indicating that masking effects is common in complex traits. We further validate the improved power of our method in height, body mass index, and schizophrenia with different GWAS sample sizes and show that on average 95.7% of the genes detected only by mBAT-combo with smaller sample sizes can be identified by the single-SNP approach with a 1.7-fold increase in sample sizes. Eleven genes significant only in mBAT-combo for schizophrenia are confirmed by functionally informed fine-mapping or Mendelian randomization integrating gene expression data. The framework of mBAT-combo can be applied to any set of SNPs to refine trait-association signals hidden in genomic regions with complex LD structures.

Local CpG density affects the trajectory and variance of age-associated DNA methylation changes

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation is an epigenetic mark associated with the repression of gene promoters. Its pattern in the genome is disrupted with age and these changes can be used to statistically predict age with epigenetic clocks. Altered rates of aging inferred from these clocks are observed in human disease. However, the molecular mechanisms underpinning age-associated DNA methylation changes remain unknown. Local DNA sequence can program steady-state DNA methylation levels, but how it influences age-associated methylation changes is unknown.

RESULTS

We analyze longitudinal human DNA methylation trajectories at 345,895 CpGs from 600 individuals aged between 67 and 80 to understand the factors responsible for age-associated epigenetic changes at individual CpGs. We show that changes in methylation with age occur at 182,760 loci largely independently of variation in cell type proportions. These changes are especially apparent at 8322 low CpG density loci. Using SNP data from the same individuals, we demonstrate that methylation trajectories are affected by local sequence polymorphisms at 1487 low CpG density loci. More generally, we find that low CpG density regions are particularly prone to change and do so variably between individuals in people aged over 65. This differs from the behavior of these regions in younger individuals where they predominantly lose methylation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results, which we reproduce in two independent groups of individuals, demonstrate that local DNA sequence influences age-associated DNA methylation changes in humans in vivo. We suggest that this occurs because interactions between CpGs reinforce maintenance of methylation patterns in CpG dense regions.

A saturated map of common genetic variants associated with human height

Common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are predicted to collectively explain 40-50% of phenotypic variation in human height, but identifying the specific variants and associated regions requires huge sample sizes1. Here, using data from a genome-wide association study of 5.4 million individuals of diverse ancestries, we show that 12,111 independent SNPs that are significantly associated with height account for nearly all of the common SNP-based heritability. These SNPs are clustered within 7,209 non-overlapping genomic segments with a mean size of around 90 kb, covering about 21% of the genome. The density of independent associations varies across the genome and the regions of increased density are enriched for biologically relevant genes. In out-of-sample estimation and prediction, the 12,111 SNPs (or all SNPs in the HapMap 3 panel2) account for 40% (45%) of phenotypic variance in populations of European ancestry but only around 10-20% (14-24%) in populations of other ancestries. Effect sizes, associated regions and gene prioritization are similar across ancestries, indicating that reduced prediction accuracy is likely to be explained by linkage disequilibrium and differences in allele frequency within associated regions. Finally, we show that the relevant biological pathways are detectable with smaller sample sizes than are needed to implicate causal genes and variants. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive map of specific genomic regions that contain the vast majority of common height-associated variants. Although this map is saturated for populations of European ancestry, further research is needed to achieve equivalent saturation in other ancestries.

Parsimonious model for mass-univariate vertexwise analysis

Purpose: Covariance between gray-matter measurements can reflect structural or functional brain networks though it has also been shown to be influenced by confounding factors (e.g., age, head size, and scanner), which could lead to lower mapping precision (increased size of associated clusters) and create distal false positives associations in mass-univariate vertexwise analyses. Approach: We evaluated this concern by performing state-of-the-art mass-univariate analyses (general linear model, GLM) on traits simulated from real vertex-wise gray matter data (including cortical and subcortical thickness and surface area). We contrasted the results with those from linear mixed models (LMMs), which have been shown to overcome similar issues in omics association studies. Results: We showed that when performed on a large sample ( N = 8662 , UK Biobank), GLMs yielded greatly inflated false positive rate (cluster false discovery rate > 0.6 ). We showed that LMMs resulted in more parsimonious results: smaller clusters and reduced false positive rate but at a cost of increased computation. Next, we performed mass-univariate association analyses on five real UKB traits (age, sex, BMI, fluid intelligence, and smoking status) and LMM yielded fewer and more localized associations. We identified 19 significant clusters displaying small associations with age, sex, and BMI, which suggest a complex architecture of at least dozens of associated areas with those phenotypes. Conclusions: The published literature could contain a large proportion of redundant (possibly confounded) associations that are largely prevented using LMMs. The parsimony of LMMs results from controlling for the joint effect of all vertices, which prevents local and distal redundant associations from reaching significance.

Mapping genomic loci implicates genes and synaptic biology in schizophrenia

Schizophrenia has a heritability of 60-80%1, much of which is attributable to common risk alleles. Here, in a two-stage genome-wide association study of up to 76,755 individuals with schizophrenia and 243,649 control individuals, we report common variant associations at 287 distinct genomic loci. Associations were concentrated in genes that are expressed in excitatory and inhibitory neurons of the central nervous system, but not in other tissues or cell types. Using fine-mapping and functional genomic data, we identify 120 genes (106 protein-coding) that are likely to underpin associations at some of these loci, including 16 genes with credible causal non-synonymous or untranslated region variation. We also implicate fundamental processes related to neuronal function, including synaptic organization, differentiation and transmission. Fine-mapped candidates were enriched for genes associated with rare disruptive coding variants in people with schizophrenia, including the glutamate receptor subunit GRIN2A and transcription factor SP4, and were also enriched for genes implicated by such variants in neurodevelopmental disorders. We identify biological processes relevant to schizophrenia pathophysiology; show convergence of common and rare variant associations in schizophrenia and neurodevelopmental disorders; and provide a resource of prioritized genes and variants to advance mechanistic studies.

Polygenic prediction of educational attainment within and between families from genome-wide association analyses in 3 million individuals

We conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (EA) in a sample of ~3 million individuals and identify 3,952 approximately uncorrelated genome-wide-significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A genome-wide polygenic predictor, or polygenic index (PGI), explains 12-16% of EA variance and contributes to risk prediction for ten diseases. Direct effects (i.e., controlling for parental PGIs) explain roughly half the PGI's magnitude of association with EA and other phenotypes. The correlation between mate-pair PGIs is far too large to be consistent with phenotypic assortment alone, implying additional assortment on PGI-associated factors. In an additional GWAS of dominance deviations from the additive model, we identify no genome-wide-significant SNPs, and a separate X-chromosome additive GWAS identifies 57.

Identifying the Common Genetic Basis of Antidepressant Response

Background

Antidepressants are a first-line treatment for depression. However, only a third of individuals experience remission after the first treatment. Common genetic variation, in part, likely regulates antidepressant response, yet the success of previous genome-wide association studies has been limited by sample size. This study performs the largest genetic analysis of prospectively assessed antidepressant response in major depressive disorder to gain insight into the underlying biology and enable out-of-sample prediction.

Methods

Genome-wide analysis of remission (n remit = 1852, n nonremit = 3299) and percentage improvement (n = 5218) was performed. Single nucleotide polymorphism-based heritability was estimated using genome-wide complex trait analysis. Genetic covariance with eight mental health phenotypes was estimated using polygenic scores/AVENGEME. Out-of-sample prediction of antidepressant response polygenic scores was assessed. Gene-level association analysis was performed using MAGMA and transcriptome-wide association study. Tissue, pathway, and drug binding enrichment were estimated using MAGMA.

Results

Neither genome-wide association study identified genome-wide significant associations. Single nucleotide polymorphism-based heritability was significantly different from zero for remission (h 2 = 0.132, SE = 0.056) but not for percentage improvement (h 2 = -0.018, SE = 0.032). Better antidepressant response was negatively associated with genetic risk for schizophrenia and positively associated with genetic propensity for educational attainment. Leave-one-out validation of antidepressant response polygenic scores demonstrated significant evidence of out-of-sample prediction, though results varied in external cohorts. Gene-based analyses identified ETV4 and DHX8 as significantly associated with antidepressant response.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that antidepressant response is influenced by common genetic variation, has a genetic overlap schizophrenia and educational attainment, and provides a useful resource for future research. Larger sample sizes are required to attain the potential of genetics for understanding and predicting antidepressant response.

Assessing the contribution of rare variants to complex trait heritability from whole-genome sequence data

Analyses of data from genome-wide association studies on unrelated individuals have shown that, for human traits and diseases, approximately one-third to two-thirds of heritability is captured by common SNPs. However, it is not known whether the remaining heritability is due to the imperfect tagging of causal variants by common SNPs, in particular whether the causal variants are rare, or whether it is overestimated due to bias in inference from pedigree data. Here we estimated heritability for height and body mass index (BMI) from whole-genome sequence data on 25,465 unrelated individuals of European ancestry. The estimated heritability was 0.68 (standard error 0.10) for height and 0.30 (standard error 0.10) for body mass index. Low minor allele frequency variants in low linkage disequilibrium (LD) with neighboring variants were enriched for heritability, to a greater extent for protein-altering variants, consistent with negative selection. Our results imply that rare variants, in particular those in regions of low linkage disequilibrium, are a major source of the still missing heritability of complex traits and disease.

Australian Parkinson's Genetics Study (APGS): pilot (n=1532)

PURPOSE

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder associated with progressive disability. While the precise aetiology is unknown, there is evidence of significant genetic and environmental influences on individual risk. The Australian Parkinson's Genetics Study seeks to study genetic and patient-reported data from a large cohort of individuals with PD in Australia to understand the sociodemographic, genetic and environmental basis of PD susceptibility, symptoms and progression.

PARTICIPANTS

In the pilot phase reported here, 1819 participants were recruited through assisted mailouts facilitated by Services Australia based on having three or more prescriptions for anti-PD medications in their Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme records. The average age at the time of the questionnaire was 64±6 years. We collected patient-reported information and sociodemographic variables via an online (93% of the cohort) or paper-based (7%) questionnaire. One thousand five hundred and thirty-two participants (84.2%) met all inclusion criteria, and 1499 provided a DNA sample via traditional post.

FINDINGS TO DATE

65% of participants were men, and 92% identified as being of European descent. A previous traumatic brain injury was reported by 16% of participants and was correlated with a younger age of symptom onset. At the time of the questionnaire, constipation (36% of participants), depression (34%), anxiety (17%), melanoma (16%) and diabetes (10%) were the most reported comorbid conditions.

FUTURE PLANS

We plan to recruit sex-matched and age-matched unaffected controls, genotype all participants and collect non-motor symptoms and cognitive function data. Future work will explore the role of genetic and environmental factors in the aetiology of PD susceptibility, onset, symptoms, and progression, including as part of international PD research consortia.

Discovery of genomic loci of the human cerebral cortex using genetically informed brain atlases

To determine the impact of genetic variants on the brain, we used genetically informed brain atlases in genome-wide association studies of regional cortical surface area and thickness in 39,898 adults and 9136 children. We uncovered 440 genome-wide significant loci in the discovery cohort and 800 from a post hoc combined meta-analysis. Loci in adulthood were largely captured in childhood, showing signatures of negative selection, and were linked to early neurodevelopment and pathways associated with neuropsychiatric risk. Opposing gradations of decreased surface area and increased thickness were associated with common inversion polymorphisms. Inferior frontal regions, encompassing Broca's area, which is important for speech, were enriched for human-specific genomic elements. Thus, a mixed genetic landscape of conserved and human-specific features is concordant with brain hierarchy and morphogenetic gradients.

Assortative mating biases marker-based heritability estimators

Many traits are subject to assortative mating, with recent molecular genetic findings confirming longstanding theoretical predictions that assortative mating induces long range dependence across causal variants. However, all marker-based heritability estimators implicitly assume mating is random. We provide mathematical and simulation-based evidence demonstrating that both method-of-moments and likelihood-based estimators are biased in the presence of assortative mating and derive corrected heritability estimators for traits subject to assortment. Finally, we demonstrate that the empirical patterns of estimates across methods and sample sizes for real traits subject to assortative mating are congruent with expected assortative mating-induced biases. For example, marker-based heritability estimates for height are 14% - 23% higher than corrected estimates using UK Biobank data.

Epigenetic scores for the circulating proteome as tools for disease prediction

Protein biomarkers have been identified across many age-related morbidities. However, characterising epigenetic influences could further inform disease predictions. Here, we leverage epigenome-wide data to study links between the DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures of the circulating proteome and incident diseases. Using data from four cohorts, we trained and tested epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 953 plasma proteins, identifying 109 scores that explained between 1% and 58% of the variance in protein levels after adjusting for known protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) genetic effects. By projecting these EpiScores into an independent sample (Generation Scotland; n = 9537) and relating them to incident morbidities over a follow-up of 14 years, we uncovered 137 EpiScore-disease associations. These associations were largely independent of immune cell proportions, common lifestyle and health factors, and biological aging. Notably, we found that our diabetes-associated EpiScores highlighted previous top biomarker associations from proteome-wide assessments of diabetes. These EpiScores for protein levels can therefore be a valuable resource for disease prediction and risk stratification.

The effect of the scale of grant scoring on ranking accuracy

In this study we quantify the accuracy of scoring the quality of research grants using a finite set of distinct categories (1, 2, …., k), when the unobserved grant score is a continuous random variable comprising a true quality score and measurement error, both normally distributed. We vary the number of categories, the number of assessors that score the same grant and a signal-to-noise ratio parameter. We show that the loss of information of scoring a small number of categories (k > 5) compared to scoring on a continuous scale is very small, so that increasing the number of scoring categories is unlikely to lead to an improvement in the outcomes of scoring systems. In addition, we model the effect of grant assessors scoring too close to the mean and show that this results in only a very small reduction in the accuracy of scoring.

Improved analyses of GWAS summary statistics by reducing data heterogeneity and errors

statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have facilitated the development of various summary data-based methods, which typically require a reference sample for linkage disequilibrium (LD) estimation. Analyses using these methods may be biased by errors in GWAS summary data or LD reference or heterogeneity between GWAS and LD reference. Here we propose a quality control method, DENTIST, that leverages LD among genetic variants to detect and eliminate errors in GWAS or LD reference and heterogeneity between the two. Through simulations, we demonstrate that DENTIST substantially reduces false-positive rate in detecting secondary signals in the summary-data-based conditional and joint association analysis, especially for imputed rare variants (false-positive rate reduced from >28% to <2% in the presence of heterogeneity between GWAS and LD reference). We further show that DENTIST can improve other summary-data-based analyses such as fine-mapping analysis.

Resource profile and user guide of the Polygenic Index Repository

Polygenic indexes (PGIs) are DNA-based predictors. Their value for research in many scientific disciplines is growing rapidly. As a resource for researchers, we used a consistent methodology to construct PGIs for 47 phenotypes in 11 datasets. To maximize the PGIs' prediction accuracies, we constructed them using genome-wide association studies-some not previously published-from multiple data sources, including 23andMe and UK Biobank. We present a theoretical framework to help interpret analyses involving PGIs. A key insight is that a PGI can be understood as an unbiased but noisy measure of a latent variable we call the 'additive SNP factor'. Regressions in which the true regressor is this factor but the PGI is used as its proxy therefore suffer from errors-in-variables bias. We derive an estimator that corrects for the bias, illustrate the correction, and make a Python tool for implementing it publicly available.

Probabilistic inference of the genetic architecture underlying functional enrichment of complex traits

We develop a Bayesian model (BayesRR-RC) that provides robust SNP-heritability estimation, an alternative to marker discovery, and accurate genomic prediction, taking 22 seconds per iteration to estimate 8.4 million SNP-effects and 78 SNP-heritability parameters in the UK Biobank. We find that only ≤10% of the genetic variation captured for height, body mass index, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes is attributable to proximal regulatory regions within 10kb upstream of genes, while 12-25% is attributed to coding regions, 32-44% to introns, and 22-28% to distal 10-500kb upstream regions. Up to 24% of all cis and coding regions of each chromosome are associated with each trait, with over 3,100 independent exonic and intronic regions and over 5,400 independent regulatory regions having ≥95% probability of contributing ≥0.001% to the genetic variance of these four traits. Our open-source software (GMRM) provides a scalable alternative to current approaches for biobank data.

Autism-related dietary preferences mediate autism-gut microbiome associations

There is increasing interest in the potential contribution of the gut microbiome to autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, previous studies have been underpowered and have not been designed to address potential confounding factors in a comprehensive way. We performed a large autism stool metagenomics study (n = 247) based on participants from the Australian Autism Biobank and the Queensland Twin Adolescent Brain project. We found negligible direct associations between ASD diagnosis and the gut microbiome. Instead, our data support a model whereby ASD-related restricted interests are associated with less-diverse diet, and in turn reduced microbial taxonomic diversity and looser stool consistency. In contrast to ASD diagnosis, our dataset was well powered to detect microbiome associations with traits such as age, dietary intake, and stool consistency. Overall, microbiome differences in ASD may reflect dietary preferences that relate to diagnostic features, and we caution against claims that the microbiome has a driving role in ASD.

A Comparison of Ten Polygenic Score Methods for Psychiatric Disorders Applied Across Multiple Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Polygenic scores (PGSs), which assess the genetic risk of individuals for a disease, are calculated as a weighted count of risk alleles identified in genome-wide association studies. PGS methods differ in which DNA variants are included and the weights assigned to them; some require an independent tuning sample to help inform these choices. PGSs are evaluated in independent target cohorts with known disease status. Variability between target cohorts is observed in applications to real data sets, which could reflect a number of factors, e.g., phenotype definition or technical factors.

METHODS

The Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Working Groups for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder bring together many independently collected case-control cohorts. We used these resources (31,328 schizophrenia cases, 41,191 controls; 248,750 major depressive disorder cases, 563,184 controls) in repeated application of leave-one-cohort-out meta-analyses, each used to calculate and evaluate PGS in the left-out (target) cohort. Ten PGS methods (the baseline PC+T method and 9 methods that model genetic architecture more formally: SBLUP, LDpred2-Inf, LDpred-funct, LDpred2, Lassosum, PRS-CS, PRS-CS-auto, SBayesR, MegaPRS) were compared.

RESULTS

Compared with PC+T, the other 9 methods gave higher prediction statistics, MegaPRS, LDPred2, and SBayesR significantly so, explaining up to 9.2% variance in liability for schizophrenia across 30 target cohorts, an increase of 44%. For major depressive disorder across 26 target cohorts, these statistics were 3.5% and 59%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the methods that more formally model genetic architecture have similar performance, MegaPRS, LDpred2, and SBayesR rank highest in most comparisons and are recommended in applications to psychiatric disorders.

Discovery and implications of polygenicity of common diseases

The sequencing of the human genome has allowed the study of the genetic architecture of common diseases: the number of genomic variants that contribute to risk of disease and their joint frequency and effect size distribution. Common diseases are polygenic, with many loci contributing to phenotype, and the cumulative burden of risk alleles determines individual risk in conjunction with environmental factors. Most risk loci occur in noncoding regions of the genome regulating cell- and context-specific gene expression. Although the effect sizes of most risk alleles are small, their cumulative effects in individuals, quantified as a polygenic (risk) score, can identify people at increased risk of disease, thereby facilitating prevention or early intervention.

The genomics of heart failure: design and rationale of the HERMES consortium

Aims

The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targetS) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure.

Methods and results

The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome‐wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow‐up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty‐nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34–90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of ≥1.10 for common variants (allele frequency ≥ 0.05) and ≥1.20 for low‐frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01–0.05) at P < 5 × 10⁻⁸ under an additive genetic model.

Conclusions

HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction.

Genomic and phenotypic insights from an atlas of genetic effects on DNA methylation

Characterizing genetic influences on DNA methylation (DNAm) provides an opportunity to understand mechanisms underpinning gene regulation and disease. In the present study, we describe results of DNAm quantitative trait locus (mQTL) analyses on 32,851 participants, identifying genetic variants associated with DNAm at 420,509 DNAm sites in blood. We present a database of >270,000 independent mQTLs, of which 8.5% comprise long-range (trans) associations. Identified mQTL associations explain 15-17% of the additive genetic variance of DNAm. We show that the genetic architecture of DNAm levels is highly polygenic. Using shared genetic control between distal DNAm sites, we constructed networks, identifying 405 discrete genomic communities enriched for genomic annotations and complex traits. Shared genetic variants are associated with both DNAm levels and complex diseases, but only in a minority of cases do these associations reflect causal relationships from DNAm to trait or vice versa, indicating a more complex genotype-phenotype map than previously anticipated.

Large-scale cis- and trans-eQTL analyses identify thousands of genetic loci and polygenic scores that regulate blood gene expression

Trait-associated genetic variants affect complex phenotypes primarily via regulatory mechanisms on the transcriptome. To investigate the genetics of gene expression, we performed cis- and trans-expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analyses using blood-derived expression from 31,684 individuals through the eQTLGen Consortium. We detected cis-eQTL for 88% of genes, and these were replicable in numerous tissues. Distal trans-eQTL (detected for 37% of 10,317 trait-associated variants tested) showed lower replication rates, partially due to low replication power and confounding by cell type composition. However, replication analyses in single-cell RNA-seq data prioritized intracellular trans-eQTL. Trans-eQTL exerted their effects via several mechanisms, primarily through regulation by transcription factors. Expression of 13% of the genes correlated with polygenic scores for 1,263 phenotypes, pinpointing potential drivers for those traits. In summary, this work represents a large eQTL resource, and its results serve as a starting point for in-depth interpretation of complex phenotypes.

Genomic partitioning of inbreeding depression in humans

Across species, offspring of related individuals often exhibit significant reduction in fitness-related traits, known as inbreeding depression (ID), yet the genetic and molecular basis for ID remains elusive. Here, we develop a method to quantify enrichment of ID within specific genomic annotations and apply it to human data. We analyzed the phenomes and genomes of ∼350,000 unrelated participants of the UK Biobank and found, on average of over 11 traits, significant enrichment of ID within genomic regions with high recombination rates (>21-fold; p < 10^-5), with conserved function across species (>19-fold; p < 10^-4), and within regulatory elements such as DNase I hypersensitive sites (∼5-fold; p = 8.9 × 10^-7). We also quantified enrichment of ID within trait-associated regions and found suggestive evidence that genomic regions contributing to additive genetic variance in the population are enriched for ID signal. We find strong correlations between functional enrichment of SNP-based heritability and that of ID (r = 0.8, standard error: 0.1). These findings provide empirical evidence that ID is most likely due to many partially recessive deleterious alleles in low linkage disequilibrium regions of the genome. Our study suggests that functional characterization of ID may further elucidate the genetic architectures and biological mechanisms underlying complex traits and diseases.

Problems with Using Polygenic Scores to Select Embryos

Companies have recently begun to sell a new service to patients considering in vitro fertilization: embryo selection based on polygenic scores (ESPS). These scores represent individualized predictions of health and other outcomes derived from genomewide association studies in adults to partially predict these outcomes. This article includes a discussion of many factors that lower the predictive power of polygenic scores in the context of embryo selection and quantifies these effects for a variety of clinical and nonclinical traits. Also discussed are potential unintended consequences of ESPS (including selecting for adverse traits, altering population demographics, exacerbating inequalities in society, and devaluing certain traits). Recommendations for the responsible communication about ESPS by practitioners are provided, and a call for a society-wide conversation about this technology is made. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others.).

Estimation of non-additive genetic variance in human complex traits from a large sample of unrelated individuals

Non-additive genetic variance for complex traits is traditionally estimated from data on relatives. It is notoriously difficult to estimate without bias in non-laboratory species, including humans, because of possible confounding with environmental covariance among relatives. In principle, non-additive variance attributable to common DNA variants can be estimated from a random sample of unrelated individuals with genome-wide SNP data. Here, we jointly estimate the proportion of variance explained by additive (h_SNP²), dominance (δ_SNP²) and additive-by-additive (η_SNP²) genetic variance in a single analysis model. We first show by simulations that our model leads to unbiased estimates and provide a new theory to predict standard errors estimated using either least-squares or maximum likelihood. We then apply the model to 70 complex traits using 254,679 unrelated individuals from the UK Biobank and 1.1 M genotyped and imputed SNPs. We found strong evidence for additive variance (average across traits h¯_SNP²=0.208). In contrast, the average estimate of δ¯_SNP² across traits was 0.001, implying negligible dominance variance at causal variants tagged by common SNPs. The average epistatic variance η¯_SNP² across the traits was 0.055, not significantly different from zero because of the large sampling variance. Our results provide new evidence that genetic variance for complex traits is predominantly additive and that sample sizes of many millions of unrelated individuals are needed to estimate epistatic variance with sufficient precision.

Gene action, genetic variation, and GWAS: A user-friendly web tool

Fisher's partitioning of genotypic values and genetic variance is highly relevant in the current era of genome-wide association studies (GWASs). However, despite being more than a century old, a number of persistent misconceptions related to nonadditive genetic effects remain. We developed a user-friendly web tool, the Falconer ShinyApp, to show how the combination of gene action and allele frequencies at causal loci translate to genetic variance and genetic variance components for a complex trait. The app can be used to demonstrate the relationship between a SNP effect size estimated from GWAS and the variation the SNP generates in the population, i.e., how locus-specific effects lead to individual differences in traits. In addition, it can also be used to demonstrate how within and between locus interactions (dominance and epistasis, respectively) usually do not lead to a large amount of nonadditive variance relative to additive variance, and therefore, that these interactions usually do not explain individual differences in a population.

Polygenic risk score analysis for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis leveraging cognitive performance, educational attainment and schizophrenia

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is recognised to be a complex neurodegenerative disease involving both genetic and non-genetic risk factors. The underlying causes and risk factors for the majority of cases remain unknown; however, ever-larger genetic data studies and methodologies promise an enhanced understanding. Recent analyses using published summary statistics from the largest ALS genome-wide association study (GWAS) (20,806 ALS cases and 59,804 healthy controls) identified that schizophrenia (SCZ), cognitive performance (CP) and educational attainment (EA) related traits were genetically correlated with ALS. To provide additional evidence for these correlations, we built single and multi-trait genetic predictors using GWAS summary statistics for ALS and these traits, (SCZ, CP, EA) in an independent Australian cohort (846 ALS cases and 665 healthy controls). We compared methods for generating the risk predictors and found that the combination of traits improved the prediction (Nagelkerke-R²) of the case-control logistic regression. The combination of ALS, SCZ, CP, and EA, using the SBayesR predictor method gave the highest prediction (Nagelkerke-R²) of 0.027 (P value = 4.6 × 10^-8), with the odds-ratio for estimated disease risk between the highest and lowest deciles of individuals being 3.15 (95% CI 1.96-5.05). These results support the genetic correlation between ALS, SCZ, CP and EA providing a better understanding of the complexity of ALS.

Alzheimer's disease genetic risk and sleep phenotypes in healthy young men: association with more slow waves and daytime sleepiness

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Sleep disturbances and genetic variants have been identified as risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Our goal was to assess whether genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRS) for AD associate with sleep phenotypes in young adults, decades before typical AD symptom onset.

METHODS

We computed whole-genome PRS for AD and extensively phenotyped sleep under different sleep conditions, including baseline sleep, recovery sleep following sleep deprivation, and extended sleep opportunity, in a carefully selected homogenous sample of 363 healthy young men (22.1 years ± 2.7) devoid of sleep and cognitive disorders.

RESULTS

AD PRS was associated with more slow-wave energy, that is, the cumulated power in the 0.5-4 Hz EEG band, a marker of sleep need, during habitual sleep and following sleep loss, and potentially with larger slow-wave sleep rebound following sleep deprivation. Furthermore, higher AD PRS was correlated with higher habitual daytime sleepiness.

CONCLUSIONS

These results imply that sleep features may be associated with AD liability in young adults, when current AD biomarkers are typically negative, and support the notion that quantifying sleep alterations may be useful in assessing the risk for developing AD.