Sequences of cognitive decline in typical Alzheimer's disease and posterior cortical atrophy estimated using a novel event-based model of disease progression

Trends in symptom prevalence and sequential onset of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 2020 to 2022 in East and Southeast Asia: a trajectory pattern exploration based on summary data

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic's diverse symptomatology, driven by variants, underscores the critical need for a comprehensive understanding. Employing stochastic models, our study evaluates symptom sequences across SARS-CoV-2 variants on aggregated data, yielding essential insights for targeted interventions.

METHODS

We conducted a meta-analysis based on research literature published before December 9, 2022, from PubMed, LitCovid, Google Scholar, and CNKI databases, to investigate the prevalence of COVID-19 symptoms during the acute phase. Registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023402568), we performed random-effects meta-analyses using the R software to estimate pooled prevalence and 95% CI. Based on our findings, we introduced the Stochastic Progression Model and Sequential Pattern Discovery using Equivalence classes (SPADE) algorithm to analyze patterns of symptom progression across different variants.

RESULTS

Encompassing a total of 430,100 patients from east and southeast Asia, our results reveal the highest pooled estimate for cough/dry cough across wild-type, Delta, and Omicron variants, with fever (78.18%; 95% CI: 67-89%) being the most prominent symptom for the Alpha variant. Symptoms associated with the Omicron variant primarily manifested in upper respiratory tracts, cardiovascular, and neuropsychiatric systems. Stochastic models indicate early symptoms including dry cough and fever, followed by subsequent development of sleep disorders, fatigue, and more.

CONCLUSION

Our study underscores the evolving symptomatology across SARS-CoV-2 variants, emphasizing similarities in fever, cough, and fatigue. The Omicron variant presents a distinct profile characterized by milder symptoms yet heightened neuropsychological challenges. Advanced analytical models validate the observed sequential progression of symptoms, reinforcing the consistency of disease trajectory.

Disease progression modeling with temporal realignment: An emerging approach to deepen knowledge on chronic diseases

The recent development of the first disease-modifying drug for Alzheimer's disease represents a major advancement in dementia treatment. Behind this breakthrough is a quarter century of research efforts to understand the disease not by a particular symptom at a given moment, but by long-term sequential changes in multiple biomarkers. Disease progression modeling with temporal realignment (DPM-TR) is an emerging computational approach proposed with this biomarker-based disease concept. By integrating short-term clinical observations of multiple disease biomarkers in a data-driven manner, DPM-TR provides a way to understand the progression of chronic diseases over decades and predict individual disease stages more accurately. DPM-TR has been developed primarily in the area of neurodegenerative diseases but has recently been extended to non-neurodegenerative diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary, autoimmune, and ophthalmologic diseases. This review focuses on opportunities for DPM-TR in clinical practice and drug development and discusses its current status and challenges.

Multimodal subtypes identified in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants by missing-data-enabled subtype and stage inference

Alzheimer's disease is a highly heterogeneous disease in which different biomarkers are dynamic over different windows of the decades-long pathophysiological processes, and potentially have distinct involvement in different subgroups. Subtype and Stage Inference is an unsupervised learning algorithm that disentangles the phenotypic heterogeneity and temporal progression of disease biomarkers, providing disease insight and quantitative estimates of individual subtype and stage. However, a key limitation of Subtype and Stage Inference is that it requires a complete set of biomarkers for each subject, reducing the number of datapoints available for model fitting and limiting applications of Subtype and Stage Inference to modalities that are widely collected, e.g. volumetric biomarkers derived from structural MRI. In this study, we adapted the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm to handle missing data, enabling the application of Subtype and Stage Inference to multimodal data (magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, cerebrospinal fluid and cognitive tests) from 789 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference identified five subtypes having distinct progression patterns, which we describe by the earliest unique abnormality as 'Typical AD with Early Tau', 'Typical AD with Late Tau', 'Cortical', 'Cognitive' and 'Subcortical'. These new multimodal subtypes were differentially associated with age, years of education, Apolipoprotein E (APOE4) status, white matter hyperintensity burden and the rate of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease, with the 'Cognitive' subtype showing the fastest clinical progression, and the 'Subcortical' subtype the slowest. Overall, we demonstrate that missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference reveals a finer landscape of Alzheimer's disease subtypes, each of which are associated with different risk factors. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference has broad utility, enabling the prediction of progression in a much wider set of individuals, rather than being restricted to those with complete data.

Data-driven sequence of cognitive decline in people with Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND

Understanding the sequential progression of cognitive impairments in Parkinson's disease (PD) is crucial for elucidating neuropathological underpinnings, refining the assessment of PD-related cognitive decline stages and enhancing early identification for targeted interventions. The first aim of this study was to use an innovative event-based modeling (EBM) analytic approach to estimate the sequence of cognitive declines in PD. The second aim was to validate the EBM by examining associations with EBM-derived individual-specific estimates of cognitive decline severity and performance on independent cognitive screening measures.

METHODS

This cross-sectional observational study included 99 people with PD who completed a neuropsychological battery. Individuals were classified as meeting the criteria for mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) or subtle cognitive decline by consensus. An EBM was constructed to compare cognitively healthy individuals with those with PD-MCI or subtle cognitive disturbances. Multivariable linear regression estimated associations between the EBM-derived stage of cognitive decline and performance on two independent cognitive screening tests.

RESULTS

The EBM estimated that tests assessing executive function and visuospatial ability become abnormal early in the sequence of PD-related cognitive decline. Each higher estimated stage of cognitive decline was associated with approximately 0.24 worse performance on the Dementia Rating Scale (p<0.001) and 0.26 worse performance on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (p<0.001) adjusting for demographic and clinical variables.

CONCLUSION

Findings from this study will have important clinical implications for practitioners, on specific cognitive tests to prioritise, when conducting neuropsychological evaluations with people with PD. Results also highlight the importance of frontal-subcortical system disruption impacting executive and visuospatial abilities.

Disentangling sex-dependent effects of APOE on diverse trajectories of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease

Current diagnostic systems for Alzheimer's disease (AD) rely upon clinical signs and symptoms, despite the fact that the multiplicity of clinical symptoms renders various neuropsychological assessments inadequate to reflect the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. Since putative neuroimaging biomarkers play a crucial role in understanding the etiology of AD, we sought to stratify the diverse relationships between AD biomarkers and cognitive decline in the aging population and uncover risk factors contributing to the diversities in AD. To do so, we capitalized on a large amount of neuroimaging data from the ADNI study to examine the inflection points along the dynamic relationship between cognitive decline trajectories and whole-brain neuroimaging biomarkers, using a state-of-the-art statistical model of change point detection. Our findings indicated that the temporal relationship between AD biomarkers and cognitive decline may differ depending on the synergistic effect of genetic risk and biological sex. Specifically, tauopathy-PET biomarkers exhibit a more dynamic and age-dependent association with Mini-Mental State Examination scores (p<0.05), with inflection points at 72, 78, and 83 years old, compared with amyloid-PET and neurodegeneration (cortical thickness from MRI) biomarkers. In the landscape of health disparities in AD, our analysis indicated that biological sex moderates the rate of cognitive decline associated with APOE4 genotype. Meanwhile, we found that higher education levels may moderate the effect of APOE4, acting as a marker of cognitive reserve.

Longitudinal inference of multiscale markers in psychosis: from hippocampal centrality to functional outcome

Multiscale neuroscience conceptualizes mental illness as arising from aberrant interactions across and within multiple biopsychosocial scales. We leverage this framework to propose a multiscale disease progression model of psychosis, in which hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity precedes impairments in episodic memory and social cognition, which lead to more severe negative symptoms and lower functional outcome. As psychosis represents a heterogeneous collection of biological and behavioral alterations that evolve over time, we further predict this disease progression for a subtype of the patient sample, with other patients showing normal-range performance on all variables. We sampled data from two cross-sectional datasets of first- and multi-episode psychosis, resulting in a sample of 163 patients and 119 non-clinical controls. To address our proposed disease progression model and evaluate potential heterogeneity, we applied a machine-learning algorithm, SuStaIn, to the patient data. SuStaIn uniquely integrates clustering and disease progression modeling and identified three patient subtypes. Subtype 0 showed normal-range performance on all variables. In comparison, Subtype 1 showed lower episodic memory, social cognition, functional outcome, and higher negative symptoms, while Subtype 2 showed lower hippocampal-cortical connectivity and episodic memory. Subtype 1 deteriorated from episodic memory to social cognition, negative symptoms, functional outcome to bilateral hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity, while Subtype 2 deteriorated from bilateral hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity to episodic memory and social cognition, functional outcome to negative symptoms. This first application of SuStaIn in a multiscale psychiatric model provides distinct disease trajectories of hippocampal-cortical connectivity, which might underlie the heterogeneous behavioral manifestations of psychosis.

Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box

Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.

Artificial intelligence for dementia research methods optimization

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches are increasingly being used in dementia research. However, several methodological challenges exist that may limit the insights we can obtain from high-dimensional data and our ability to translate these findings into improved patient outcomes. To improve reproducibility and replicability, researchers should make their well-documented code and modeling pipelines openly available. Data should also be shared where appropriate. To enhance the acceptability of models and AI-enabled systems to users, researchers should prioritize interpretable methods that provide insights into how decisions are generated. Models should be developed using multiple, diverse datasets to improve robustness, generalizability, and reduce potentially harmful bias. To improve clarity and reproducibility, researchers should adhere to reporting guidelines that are co-produced with multiple stakeholders. If these methodological challenges are overcome, AI and ML hold enormous promise for changing the landscape of dementia research and care. HIGHLIGHTS: Machine learning (ML) can improve diagnosis, prevention, and management of dementia. Inadequate reporting of ML procedures affects reproduction/replication of results. ML models built on unrepresentative datasets do not generalize to new datasets. Obligatory metrics for certain model structures and use cases have not been defined. Interpretability and trust in ML predictions are barriers to clinical translation.

sEBM: Scaling Event Based Models to Predict Disease Progression via Implicit Biomarker Selection and Clustering

The Event Based Model (EBM) is a probabilistic generative model to explore biomarker changes occurring as a disease progresses. Disease progression is hypothesized to occur through a sequence of biomarker dysregulation "events". The EBM estimates the biomarker dysregulation event sequence. It computes the data likelihood for a given dysregulation sequence, and subsequently evaluates the posterior distribution on the dysregulation sequence. Since the posterior distribution is intractable, Markov Chain Monte-Carlo is employed to generate samples under the posterior distribution. However, the set of possible sequences increases as N ! where N is the number of biomarkers (data dimension) and quickly becomes prohibitively large for effective sampling via MCMC. This work proposes the "scaled EBM" (sEBM) to enable event based modeling on large biomarker sets (e.g. high-dimensional data). First, sEBM implicitly selects a subset of biomarkers useful for modeling disease progression and infers the event sequence only for that subset. Second, sEBM clusters biomarkers with similar positions in the event sequence and only orders the "clusters", with each successive cluster corresponding to the next stage in disease progression. These two modifications used to construct the sEBM method provably reduces the possible space of event sequences by multiple orders of magnitude. The novel modifications are supported by theory and experiments on synthetic and real clinical data provides validation for sEBM to work in higher dimensional settings. Results on synthetic data with known ground truth shows that sEBM outperforms previous EBM variants as data dimensions increase. sEBM was successfully implemented with up to 300 biomarkers, which is a 6-fold increase over previous EBM applications. A real-world clinical application of sEBM is performed using 119 neuroimaging markers from publicly available Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data to stratify subjects into 6 stages of disease progression. Subjects included cognitively normal (CN), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and Alzheimer's Disease (AD). sEBM stage is differentiated for the 3 groups ( χ 2 p - v a l u e < 4.6 e - 32 ) . Increased sEBM stage is a strong predictor of conversion risk to AD ( p - v a l u e < 2.3 e - 14 ) for MCI subjects, as verified with a Cox proportional-hazards model adjusted for age, sex, education and APOE4 status. Like EBM, sEBM does not rely on apriori defined diagnostic labels and only uses cross-sectional data.

Presence but not the timing of onset of REM sleep behavior disorder distinguishes evolution patterns in Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND

Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) could develop preceding or come after motor symptoms during Parkinson's disease (PD). It remains unknown that whether PD with different timing of RBD onset relative to motor symptoms suggests different spatiotemporal sequence of neurodegeneration. This study aimed to explore the sequence of disease progression in crucially involved brain regions in PD with different timing of RBD onset.

METHOD

We recruited 157 PD, 16 isolated RBD (iRBD), and 78 healthy controls. PD patients were identified as (1) PD with RBD preceding motor symptoms (PD-preRBD, n = 50), (2) PD with RBD posterior to motor symptoms (PD-postRBD, n = 31), (3) PD without RBD (PD-nonRBD, n = 75). The volumes of crucial brain regions, including the basal ganglia and limbic structures in T1-weighted imaging, and the contrast-noise-ratios of locus coeruleus (LC) and substantia nigra (SN) in neuromelanin-sensitive magnetic resonance imaging, were extracted. To simulate the sequence of disease progression for cross-sectional data, an event-based model was introduced to estimate the maximum likelihood sequence of regions' involvement for each group. Then, a statistical parameter, the Bhattacharya coefficient (BC), was used to evaluate the similarity of the sequence.

RESULTS

The model predicted that SN occupied the highest likelihood in the maximum likelihood sequence of disease progression in the all PD subgroups, while LC was specifically positioned earlier to SN in iRBD, a prodromal phase of PD. Subsequent early involvement of LC was observed in the both PD-preRBD and PD-postRBD. In contrast, atrophy in the para-hippocampal gyrus but relatively intact LC in the early stage was demonstrated in PD-nonRBD. Then, the similarity comparisons indicated higher BC between PD-postRBD and PD-preRBD (BC = 0.76) but lower BC between PD-postRBD and PD-nonRBD group (BC = 0.41). iRBD had higher BC against PD-preRBD (BC = 0.66) and PD-postRBD (BC = 0.63) but lower BC against PD- nonRBD (BC = 0.48).

CONCLUSION

The spatiotemporal sequence of neurodegeneration between PD-pre and PD-post were similar but distinct from PD-nonRBD. The presence of RBD may be the essential factor for differentiating the degeneration patterns of PD, but the timing of RBD onset has currently proved to be not.

Exploring the ATN classification system using brain morphology

BACKGROUND

The NIA-AA proposed amyloid-tau-neurodegeneration (ATN) as a classification system for AD biomarkers. The amyloid cascade hypothesis (ACH) implies a sequence across ATN groups that patients might undergo during transition from healthy towards AD: A-T-N-➔A+T-N-➔A+T+N-➔A+T+N+. Here we assess the evidence for monotonic brain volume decline for this particular (amyloid-conversion first, tau-conversion second, N-conversion last) and alternative progressions using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in a large cross-sectional MRI cohort.

METHODS

We used baseline data of the DELCODE cohort of 437 subjects (127 controls, 168 SCD, 87 MCI, 55 AD patients) which underwent lumbar puncture, MRI scanning, and neuropsychological assessment. ATN classification was performed using CSF-Aβ42/Aβ40 (A+/-), CSF phospho-tau (T+/-), and adjusted hippocampal volume or CSF total-tau (N+/-). We compared voxel-wise model evidence for monotonic decline of gray matter volume across various sequences over ATN groups using the Bayesian Information Criterion (including also ROIs of Braak stages). First, face validity of the ACH transition sequence A-T-N-➔A+T-N-➔A+T+N-➔A+T+N+ was compared against biologically less plausible (permuted) sequences among AD continuum ATN groups. Second, we evaluated evidence for 6 monotonic brain volume progressions from A-T-N- towards A+T+N+ including also non-AD continuum ATN groups.

RESULTS

The ACH-based progression A-T-N-➔A+T-N-➔A+T+N-➔A+T+N+ was consistent with cognitive decline and clinical diagnosis. Using hippocampal volume for operationalization of neurodegeneration (N), ACH was most evident in 9% of gray matter predominantly in the medial temporal lobe. Many cortical regions suggested alternative non-monotonic volume progressions over ACH progression groups, which is compatible with an early amyloid-related tissue expansion or sampling effects, e.g., due to brain reserve. Volume decline in 65% of gray matter was consistent with a progression where A status converts before T or N status (i.e., ACH/ANT) when compared to alternative sequences (TAN/TNA/NAT/NTA). Brain regions earlier affected by tau tangle deposition (Braak stage I-IV, MTL, limbic system) present stronger evidence for volume decline than late Braak stage ROIs (V/VI, cortical regions). Similar findings were observed when using CSF total-tau for N instead.

CONCLUSION

Using the ATN classification system, early amyloid status conversion (before tau and neurodegeneration) is associated with brain volume loss observed during AD progression. The ATN system and the ACH are compatible with monotonic progression of MTL atrophy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

DRKS00007966, 04/05/2015, retrospectively registered.

Artificial Intelligence for Dementia Research Methods Optimization

INTRODUCTION

Machine learning (ML) has been extremely successful in identifying key features from high-dimensional datasets and executing complicated tasks with human expert levels of accuracy or greater.

METHODS

We summarize and critically evaluate current applications of ML in dementia research and highlight directions for future research.

RESULTS

We present an overview of ML algorithms most frequently used in dementia research and highlight future opportunities for the use of ML in clinical practice, experimental medicine, and clinical trials. We discuss issues of reproducibility, replicability and interpretability and how these impact the clinical applicability of dementia research. Finally, we give examples of how state-of-the-art methods, such as transfer learning, multi-task learning, and reinforcement learning, may be applied to overcome these issues and aid the translation of research to clinical practice in the future.

DISCUSSION

ML-based models hold great promise to advance our understanding of the underlying causes and pathological mechanisms of dementia.

Deep Learning for Brain MRI Confirms Patterned Pathological Progression in Alzheimer's Disease

Deep learning (DL) on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data has shown excellent performance in differentiating individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the value of DL in detecting progressive structural MRI (sMRI) abnormalities linked to AD pathology has yet to be established. In this study, an interpretable DL algorithm named the Ensemble of 3-dimensional convolutional neural network (Ensemble 3DCNN) with enhanced parsing techniques is proposed to investigate the longitudinal trajectories of whole-brain sMRI changes denoting AD onset and progression. A set of 2369 T1-weighted images from the multi-centre Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies cohorts are applied to model derivation, validation, testing, and pattern analysis. An Ensemble-3DCNN-based P-score is generated, based on which multiple brain regions, including amygdala, insular, parahippocampal, and temporal gyrus, exhibit early and connected progressive neurodegeneration. Complex individual variability in the sMRI is also observed. This study combining non-invasive sMRI and interpretable DL in detecting patterned sMRI changes confirmed AD pathological progression, shedding new light on predicting AD progression using whole-brain sMRI.

Neurodegenerative disease of the brain: a survey of interdisciplinary approaches

Neurodegenerative diseases of the brain pose a major and increasing global health challenge, with only limited progress made in developing effective therapies over the last decade. Interdisciplinary research is improving understanding of these diseases and this article reviews such approaches, with particular emphasis on tools and techniques drawn from physics, chemistry, artificial intelligence and psychology.

Event-based modeling in temporal lobe epilepsy demonstrates progressive atrophy from cross-sectional data

OBJECTIVE

Recent work has shown that people with common epilepsies have characteristic patterns of cortical thinning, and that these changes may be progressive over time. Leveraging a large multicenter cross-sectional cohort, we investigated whether regional morphometric changes occur in a sequential manner, and whether these changes in people with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy and hippocampal sclerosis (MTLE-HS) correlate with clinical features.

METHODS

We extracted regional measures of cortical thickness, surface area, and subcortical brain volumes from T1-weighted (T1W) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans collected by the ENIGMA-Epilepsy consortium, comprising 804 people with MTLE-HS and 1625 healthy controls from 25 centers. Features with a moderate case-control effect size (Cohen d ≥ .5) were used to train an event-based model (EBM), which estimates a sequence of disease-specific biomarker changes from cross-sectional data and assigns a biomarker-based fine-grained disease stage to individual patients. We tested for associations between EBM disease stage and duration of epilepsy, age at onset, and antiseizure medicine (ASM) resistance.

RESULTS

In MTLE-HS, decrease in ipsilateral hippocampal volume along with increased asymmetry in hippocampal volume was followed by reduced thickness in neocortical regions, reduction in ipsilateral thalamus volume, and finally, increase in ipsilateral lateral ventricle volume. EBM stage was correlated with duration of illness (Spearman ρ = .293, p = 7.03 × 10-16 ), age at onset (ρ = -.18, p = 9.82 × 10-7 ), and ASM resistance (area under the curve = .59, p = .043, Mann-Whitney U test). However, associations were driven by cases assigned to EBM Stage 0, which represents MTLE-HS with mild or nondetectable abnormality on T1W MRI.

SIGNIFICANCE

From cross-sectional MRI, we reconstructed a disease progression model that highlights a sequence of MRI changes that aligns with previous longitudinal studies. This model could be used to stage MTLE-HS subjects in other cohorts and help establish connections between imaging-based progression staging and clinical features.

Investigating Heterogeneity and Neuroanatomic Correlates of Longitudinal Clinical Decline in Atypical Alzheimer Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The aims of this work were to compare rates of longitudinal change in neurologic and neuropsychological test performance between the logopenic progressive aphasia (LPA) and posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) variants of atypical Alzheimer disease (AD) and to use unbiased principal component analysis to assess heterogeneity in patterns of change and relationships to demographics and concurrent brain atrophy.

METHODS

Patients with PCA or LPA who were positive for amyloid and tau AD biomarkers and had undergone serial neurologic and neuropsychological assessments and structural MRI were identified. Rates of change in 13 clinical measures were compared between groups in a case-control design, and principal component analysis was used to assess patterns of clinical change unbiased by clinical phenotype. Components were correlated with rates of regional brain atrophy with tensor-based morphometry.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight patients with PCA and 27 patients with LPA were identified. Those with LPA showed worse baseline performance and faster rates of decline in naming, repetition, and working memory, as well as faster rates of decline in verbal episodic memory, compared to those with PCA. Conversely, patients with PCA showed worse baseline performance in tests of visuospatial and perceptual function and on the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale and faster rates of decline in visuoperceptual function compared to those with LPA. Principal component analysis showed that patterns of clinical decline were highly heterogeneous across the cohort, with 10 principal components required to explain >90% of the variance. The first principal component reflected overall severity, with higher scores in LPA than PCA reflecting faster decline in LPA, and was related to left temporoparietal atrophy. The second and third principal components were not related to clinical phenotype but showed some relationship to regional atrophy. No relationships were identified between the principal components and age, sex, disease duration, amyloid PET findings, or apolipoprotein genotype.

DISCUSSION

Longitudinal patterns of clinical decline differ between LPA and PCA but are heterogeneous and related to different patterns of topographic spread. PCA is associated with a more slowly progressive course than LPA.

Targeted Screening for Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trials Using Data-Driven Disease Progression Models

Heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease progression contributes to the ongoing failure to demonstrate efficacy of putative disease-modifying therapeutics that have been trialed over the past two decades. Any treatment effect present in a subgroup of trial participants (responders) can be diluted by non-responders who ideally should have been screened out of the trial. How to identify (screen-in) the most likely potential responders is an important question that is still without an answer. Here, we pilot a computational screening tool that leverages recent advances in data-driven disease progression modeling to improve stratification. This aims to increase the sensitivity to treatment effect by screening out non-responders, which will ultimately reduce the size, duration, and cost of a clinical trial. We demonstrate the concept of such a computational screening tool by retrospectively analyzing a completed double-blind clinical trial of donepezil in people with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00000173), identifying a data-driven subgroup having more severe cognitive impairment who showed clearer treatment response than observed for the full cohort.

Comparison and aggregation of event sequences across ten cohorts to describe the consensus biomarker evolution in Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Previous models of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression were primarily hypothetical or based on data originating from single cohort studies. However, cohort datasets are subject to specific inclusion and exclusion criteria that influence the signals observed in their collected data. Furthermore, each study measures only a subset of AD-relevant variables. To gain a comprehensive understanding of AD progression, the heterogeneity and robustness of estimated progression patterns must be understood, and complementary information contained in cohort datasets be leveraged.

METHODS

We compared ten event-based models that we fit to ten independent AD cohort datasets. Additionally, we designed and applied a novel rank aggregation algorithm that combines partially overlapping, individual event sequences into a meta-sequence containing the complementary information from each cohort.

RESULTS

We observed overall consistency across the ten event-based model sequences (average pairwise Kendall's tau correlation coefficient of 0.69 ± 0.28), despite variance in the positioning of mainly imaging variables. The changes described in the aggregated meta-sequence are broadly consistent with the current understanding of AD progression, starting with cerebrospinal fluid amyloid beta, followed by tauopathy, memory impairment, FDG-PET, and ultimately brain deterioration and impairment of visual memory.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the event-based models demonstrated similar and robust disease cascades across independent AD cohorts. Aggregation of data-driven results can combine complementary strengths and information of patient-level datasets. Accordingly, the derived meta-sequence draws a more complete picture of AD pathology compared to models relying on single cohorts.

A data-driven model of brain volume changes in progressive supranuclear palsy

The most common clinical phenotype of progressive supranuclear palsy is Richardson syndrome, characterized by levodopa unresponsive symmetric parkinsonism, with a vertical supranuclear gaze palsy, early falls and cognitive impairment. There is currently no detailed understanding of the full sequence of disease pathophysiology in progressive supranuclear palsy. Determining the sequence of brain atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy could provide important insights into the mechanisms of disease progression, as well as guide patient stratification and monitoring for clinical trials. We used a probabilistic event-based model applied to cross-sectional structural MRI scans in a large international cohort, to determine the sequence of brain atrophy in clinically diagnosed progressive supranuclear palsy Richardson syndrome. A total of 341 people with Richardson syndrome (of whom 255 had 12-month follow-up imaging) and 260 controls were included in the study. We used a combination of 12-month follow-up MRI scans, and a validated clinical rating score (progressive supranuclear palsy rating scale) to demonstrate the longitudinal consistency and utility of the event-based model's staging system. The event-based model estimated that the earliest atrophy occurs in the brainstem and subcortical regions followed by progression caudally into the superior cerebellar peduncle and deep cerebellar nuclei, and rostrally to the cortex. The sequence of cortical atrophy progresses in an anterior to posterior direction, beginning in the insula and then the frontal lobe before spreading to the temporal, parietal and finally the occipital lobe. This in vivo ordering accords with the post-mortem neuropathological staging of progressive supranuclear palsy and was robust under cross-validation. Using longitudinal information from 12-month follow-up scans, we demonstrate that subjects consistently move to later stages over this time interval, supporting the validity of the model. In addition, both clinical severity (progressive supranuclear palsy rating scale) and disease duration were significantly correlated with the predicted subject event-based model stage (P < 0.01). Our results provide new insights into the sequence of atrophy progression in progressive supranuclear palsy and offer potential utility to stratify people with this disease on entry into clinical trials based on disease stage, as well as track disease progression.

pySuStaIn: a Python implementation of the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm

Progressive disorders are highly heterogeneous. Symptom-based clinical classification of these disorders may not reflect the underlying pathobiology. Data-driven subtyping and staging of patients has the potential to disentangle the complex spatiotemporal patterns of disease progression. Tools that enable this are in high demand from clinical and treatment-development communities. Here we describe the pySuStaIn software package, a Python-based implementation of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm. SuStaIn unravels the complexity of heterogeneous diseases by inferring multiple disease progression patterns (subtypes) and individual severity (stages) from cross-sectional data. The primary aims of pySuStaIn are to enable widespread application and translation of SuStaIn via an accessible Python package that supports simple extension and generalization to novel modelling situations within a single, consistent architecture.

A Multi-Study Model-Based Evaluation of the Sequence of Imaging and Clinical Biomarker Changes in Huntington's Disease

Understanding the order and progression of change in biomarkers of neurodegeneration is essential to detect the effects of pharmacological interventions on these biomarkers. In Huntington’s disease (HD), motor, cognitive and MRI biomarkers are currently used in clinical trials of drug efficacy. Here for the first time we use directly compare data from three large observational studies of HD (total N = 532) using a probabilistic event-based model (EBM) to characterise the order in which motor, cognitive and MRI biomarkers become abnormal. We also investigate the impact of the genetic cause of HD, cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeat length, on progression through these stages. We find that EBM uncovers a broadly consistent order of events across all three studies; that EBM stage reflects clinical stage; and that EBM stage is related to age and genetic burden. Our findings indicate that measures of subcortical and white matter volume become abnormal prior to clinical and cognitive biomarkers. Importantly, CAG repeat length has a large impact on the timing of onset of each stage and progression through the stages, with a longer repeat length resulting in earlier onset and faster progression. Our results can be used to help design clinical trials of treatments for Huntington’s disease, influencing the choice of biomarkers and the recruitment of participants.

Convergent and Discriminant Validity of Default Mode Network and Limbic Network Perfusion in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment Patients

BACKGROUND

Previous studies reported default mode network (DMN) and limbic network (LIN) brain perfusion deficits in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), frequently a prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the validity of these measures as AD markers has not yet been tested using MRI arterial spin labeling (ASL).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the convergent and discriminant validity of DMN and LIN perfusion in aMCI.

METHODS

We collected core AD markers (amyloid-β 42 [Aβ42], phosphorylated tau 181 levels in cerebrospinal fluid [CSF]), neurodegenerative (hippocampal volumes and CSF total tau), vascular (white matter hyperintensities), genetic (apolipoprotein E [APOE] status), and cognitive features (memory functioning on Paired Associate Learning test [PAL]) in 14 aMCI patients. Cerebral blood flow (CBF) was extracted from DMN and LIN using ASL and correlated with AD features to assess convergent validity. Discriminant validity was assessed carrying out the same analysis with AD-unrelated features, i.e., somatomotor and visual networks' perfusion, cerebellar volume, and processing speed.

RESULTS

Perfusion was reduced in the DMN (F = 5.486, p = 0.039) and LIN (F = 12.678, p = 0.004) in APOE ɛ4 carriers compared to non-carriers. LIN perfusion correlated with CSF Aβ42 levels (r = 0.678, p = 0.022) and memory impairment (PAL, number of errors, r = -0.779, p = 0.002). No significant correlation was detected with tau, neurodegeneration, and vascular features, nor with AD-unrelated features.

CONCLUSION

Our results support the validity of DMN and LIN ASL perfusion as AD markers in aMCI, indicating a significant correlation between CBF and amyloidosis, APOE ɛ4, and memory impairment.

Ordinal SuStaIn: Subtype and Stage Inference for Clinical Scores, Visual Ratings, and Other Ordinal Data

Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) is an unsupervised learning algorithm that uniquely enables the identification of subgroups of individuals with distinct pseudo-temporal disease progression patterns from cross-sectional datasets. SuStaIn has been used to identify data-driven subgroups and perform patient stratification in neurodegenerative diseases and in lung diseases from continuous biomarker measurements predominantly obtained from imaging. However, the SuStaIn algorithm is not currently applicable to discrete ordinal data, such as visual ratings of images, neuropathological ratings, and clinical and neuropsychological test scores, restricting the applicability of SuStaIn to a narrower range of settings. Here we propose 'Ordinal SuStaIn', an ordinal version of the SuStaIn algorithm that uses a scored events model of disease progression to enable the application of SuStaIn to ordinal data. We demonstrate the validity of Ordinal SuStaIn by benchmarking the performance of the algorithm on simulated data. We further demonstrate that Ordinal SuStaIn out-performs the existing continuous version of SuStaIn (Z-score SuStaIn) on discrete scored data, providing much more accurate subtype progression patterns, better subtyping and staging of individuals, and accurate uncertainty estimates. We then apply Ordinal SuStaIn to six different sub-scales of the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (CDR) using data from the Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study to identify individuals with distinct patterns of functional decline. Using data from 819 ADNI1 participants we identified three distinct CDR subtype progression patterns, which were independently verified using data from 790 ADNI2 participants. Our results provide insight into patterns of decline in daily activities in Alzheimer's disease and a mechanism for stratifying individuals into groups with difficulties in different domains. Ordinal SuStaIn is broadly applicable across different types of ratings data, including visual ratings from imaging, neuropathological ratings and clinical or behavioural ratings data.

Inter-Cohort Validation of SuStaIn Model for Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder which spans several years from preclinical manifestations to dementia. In recent years, interest in the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to personalized medicine has grown considerably, and a major challenge that such models face is the transferability from the research settings to clinical practice. The objective of this work was to demonstrate the transferability of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model from well-characterized research data set, employed as training set, to independent less-structured and heterogeneous test sets representative of the clinical setting. The training set was composed of MRI data of 1043 subjects from the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and the test set was composed of data from 767 subjects from OASIS, Pharma-Cog, and ViTA clinical datasets. Both sets included subjects covering the entire spectrum of AD, and for both sets volumes of relevant brain regions were derived from T1-3D MRI scans processed with Freesurfer v5.3 cross-sectional stream. In order to assess the predictive value of the model, subpopulations of subjects with stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and MCIs that progressed to AD dementia (pMCI) were identified in both sets. SuStaIn identified three disease subtypes, of which the most prevalent corresponded to the typical atrophy pattern of AD. The other SuStaIn subtypes exhibited similarities with the previously defined hippocampal sparing and limbic predominant atrophy patterns of AD. Subject subtyping proved to be consistent in time for all cohorts and the staging provided by the model was correlated with cognitive performance. Classification of subjects on the basis of a combination of SuStaIn subtype and stage, mini mental state examination and amyloid-β_1-42 cerebrospinal fluid concentration was proven to predict conversion from MCI to AD dementia on par with other novel statistical algorithms, with ROC curves that were not statistically different for the training and test sets and with area under curve respectively equal to 0.77 and 0.76. This study proves the transferability of a SuStaIn model for AD from research data to less-structured clinical cohorts, and indicates transferability to the clinical setting.

Sequence of clinical and neurodegeneration events in Parkinson's disease progression

Dementia is one of the most debilitating aspects of Parkinson's disease. There are no validated biomarkers that can track Parkinson's disease progression, nor accurately identify patients who will develop dementia and when. Understanding the sequence of observable changes in Parkinson's disease in people at elevated risk for developing dementia could provide an integrated biomarker for identifying and managing individuals who will develop Parkinson's dementia. We aimed to estimate the sequence of clinical and neurodegeneration events, and variability in this sequence, using data-driven statistical modelling in two separate Parkinson's cohorts, focusing on patients at elevated risk for dementia due to their age at symptom onset. We updated a novel version of an event-based model that has only recently been extended to cope naturally with clinical data, enabling its application in Parkinson's disease for the first time. The observational cohorts included healthy control subjects and patients with Parkinson's disease, of whom those diagnosed at age 65 or older were classified as having high risk of dementia. The model estimates that Parkinson's progression in patients at elevated risk for dementia starts with classic prodromal features of Parkinson's disease (olfaction, sleep), followed by early deficits in visual cognition and increased brain iron content, followed later by a less certain ordering of neurodegeneration in the substantia nigra and cortex, neuropsychological cognitive deficits, retinal thinning in dopamine layers, and further deficits in visual cognition. Importantly, we also characterize variation in the sequence. We found consistent, cross-validated results within cohorts, and agreement between cohorts on the subset of features available in both cohorts. Our sequencing results add powerful support to the increasing body of evidence suggesting that visual processing specifically is affected early in patients with Parkinson's disease at elevated risk of dementia. This opens a route to earlier and more precise detection, as well as a more detailed understanding of the pathological mechanisms underpinning Parkinson's dementia.

Analyzing large Alzheimer's disease cognitive datasets: Considerations and challenges

Recent data-sharing initiatives of clinical and preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) have led to a growing number of non-clinical researchers analyzing these datasets using modern data-driven computational methods. Cognitive tests are key components of such datasets, representing the principal clinical tool to establish phenotypes and monitor symptomatic progression. Despite the potential of computational analyses in complementing the clinical understanding of AD, the characteristics and multifactorial nature of cognitive tests are often unfamiliar to computational researchers and other non-specialist audiences. This perspective paper outlines core features, idiosyncrasies, and applications of cognitive test data. We report tests commonly featured in data-sharing initiatives, highlight key considerations in their selection and analysis, and provide suggestions to avoid risks of misinterpretation. Ultimately, the greater transparency of cognitive measures will maximize insights offered in AD, particularly regarding understanding the extent and basis of AD phenotypic heterogeneity.

Quantitative detection and staging of presymptomatic cognitive decline in familial Alzheimer's disease: a retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the earliest manifestations of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is key to realising disease-modifying treatments. Advances in neuroimaging and fluid biomarkers have improved our ability to identify AD pathology in vivo. The critical next step is improved detection and staging of early cognitive change. We studied an asymptomatic familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD) cohort to characterise preclinical cognitive change.

METHODS

Data included 35 asymptomatic participants at 50% risk of carrying a pathogenic FAD mutation. Participants completed a multi-domain neuropsychology battery. After accounting for sex, age and education, we used event-based modelling to estimate the sequence of cognitive decline in presymptomatic FAD, and uncertainty in the sequence. We assigned individuals to their most likely model stage of cumulative cognitive decline, given their data. Linear regression of estimated years to symptom onset against model stage was used to estimate the timing of preclinical cognitive decline.

RESULTS

Cognitive change in mutation carriers was first detected in measures of accelerated long-term forgetting, up to 10 years before estimated symptom onset. Measures of subjective cognitive decline also revealed early abnormalities. Our data-driven model demonstrated subtle cognitive impairment across multiple cognitive domains in clinically normal individuals on the AD continuum.

CONCLUSIONS

Data-driven modelling of neuropsychological test scores has potential to differentiate cognitive decline from cognitive stability and to estimate a fine-grained sequence of decline across cognitive domains and functions, in the preclinical phase of Alzheimer's disease. This can improve the design of future presymptomatic trials by informing enrichment strategies and guiding the selection of outcome measures.