Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years

Burden landscape of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers in Chinese young adults: 30 years’ overview and forecasted trends

BACKGROUND

Hepatobiliary and pancreatic (HBP) cancers impose a considerable burden on young populations (aged 15 to 49 years), resulting in a substantial number of new cases and fatalities each year. In young populations, the HBP cancers shows extensive variance worldwide and the updated data in China is lacking.

AIM

To investigate the current status, trends, projections, and underlying risk factors of HBP cancers among young populations in China.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 provided data on the annual incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), and DALYs rate (ASDR) of HBP cancers in young Chinese adults between 1990 and 2019. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change and hierarchical clustering. Sex-specific mortality and DALYs caused by various risks were analyzed across China and other regions, with future trends until 2035 projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, incident cases, deaths, DALYs, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR for liver cancer (LC) in young Chinese individuals decreased, classified into 'significant decrease' group. Conversely, cases of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer rose, categorized as either 'significant increase' or 'minor increase' groups. The contribution of risk factors to mortality and DALYs for HBP tumors increased to varying degrees. Healthy lifestyle behaviors, such as tobacco control, weight management, alcohol moderation, and drug avoidance, could lower HBP cancers incidence. Moreover, except for LC in females, which is likely to initially decline slightly and then rise, the forecasting model predicted that the ASIR and ASMR for all HPB cancers subtypes by gender will increase among young adults.

CONCLUSION

HBP cancers burden among young adults in China is expected to increase until 2035, necessitating lifestyle interventions and targeted treatment strategies to mitigate the public health impact of these cancers.

Use machine learning to predict pulmonary metastasis of esophageal cancer: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

This study aims to establish a predictive model for assessing the risk of esophageal cancer lung metastasis using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

Data on esophageal cancer patients from 2010 to 2020 were extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, eight indicators related to the risk of lung metastasis were selected. These indicators were incorporated into six machine learning classifiers to develop corresponding predictive models. The performance of these models was evaluated and compared using metrics such as The area under curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score.

RESULTS

A total of 20,249 confirmed cases of esophageal cancer were included in this study. Among them, 14,174 cases (70%) were assigned to the training set while 6075 cases (30%) constituted the internal test set. Primary site location, tumor histology, tumor grade classification system T staging criteria N staging criteria brain metastasis bone metastasis liver metastasis emerged as independent risk factors for esophageal cancer with lung metastasis. Amongst the six constructed models, the GBM algorithm-based machine learning model demonstrated superior performance during internal dataset validation. AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values achieved by this model stood at respectively at 0.803, 0.849, 0.604, and 0.867.

CONCLUSION

We have developed an online calculator based on the GBM model ( https://lvgrkyxcgdvo7ugoyxyywe.streamlit.app/)to aid clinical decision-making and treatment planning.

Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to particulate matter pollution from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2050: Worsening or improving?

Particulate matter pollution (PMP) has been identified as a substantial contributor to cancer. However, accurately delineating the evolving trends in cancer burden attributable to PMP remains an ongoing challenge. The 1990-2019 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used for cancers attributable to PMP from the Global Burden and Disease Study (GBD) 2019, including ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) and household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP). The joinpoint regression and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to assess the corresponding trends over the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2050, respectively. Additionally, statistical models such as frontier analysis and health inequality analysis were also utilized. During the 30-year period, cancer DALYs attributable to APMP increased globally, while those attributable to HAP and PMP decreased. Cancer DALYs attributable to APMP were positively correlated with socio-demographic index (SDI), while those attributable to PMP and HAP were negatively correlated with SDI. Frontier analysis identified the countries and regions requiring urgent action to mitigate PMP-attributable cancer. Finally, it was anticipated that the cancer burden attributable to APMP would increase during 2020 to 2050, while the burden attributable to HAP and PMP would decrease. This study conducted an epidemiological investigation of the burden of cancer attributable to APMP, HAP and PMP in various regions and populations worldwide, providing epidemiological insights into the global burden of cancer attributable to PMP and guiding policy and research directions.

Global, regional, and national burden of bladder cancer, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

OBJECTIVES

Bladder cancer is a common malignancy worldwide, with substantial morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study and to analyze the trends using an age-period-cohort (APC) model.

STUDY DESIGN

In this cross-sectional study, secondary analyses were conducted to assess the burden of bladder cancer using data from GBD 2019.

METHODS

Bladder cancer prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates (ASRs) were obtained from the GBD 2019 study. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends in ASRs. An APC analysis was performed to distinguish the effects of age, period, and cohort on the observed temporal trends.

RESULTS

The global prevalence of bladder cancer increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, reaching 2,869,046.4 cases (95% UI: 2,614,200.3-3,114,474.4) in 2019. The age-standardized prevalence rate rose from 20.9 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 37.1 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 1.97 (95% CI: 1.93-2.01). The global burden of bladder cancer, as measured by DALYs, increased from 48.0 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 56.8 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.47 (95% CI: 0.4-0.53), demonstrating the growing impact of this disease on population health.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates a significant increase in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, with substantial variations across sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles and GBD regions. The findings emphasize the need for concerted efforts at the global, regional, and national levels to reduce the burden of bladder cancer through primary prevention, early detection, and improved access to treatment services.

Burden of Gastrointestinal Tumors in Asian Countries, 1990-2021: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Gastrointestinal tumors represent a significant component of the cancer burden in Asia. This study aims to evaluate the burden of gastrointestinal tumors in Asia from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021).

Methods

The absolute incidence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) number and rate of six gastrointestinal tumors(colon and rectum cancer (CRC), stomach cancer (SC), pancreatic cancer (PC), esophageal cancer (EC), liver cancer (LC) and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC)) in 48 Asian countries were extracted from GBD 2021. Differences were analyzed based on gender, age, year, location and socio-demographic index (SDI).

Results

In 2021, SC accounted for the highest disease burden in Asia (DALYs=16.41million [95% UI: 13.70, 19.62]). From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rates of EC, LC, and SC in Asia declined, while the incidence rates of CRC and PC increased significantly, with CRC showing the largest rise (AAPC=1.08 [95% CI: 1.02 to 1.12]). Gastrointestinal tumors DALY rates peaked at age 70 and above, with males generally exhibiting higher rates than females. Furthermore, East Asia bears a higher burden compared to other Asian subregions. A higher SDI correlates with increased DALY rates for PC, but no linear relationship was observed for other gastrointestinal tumors.

Conclusion

The burden of gastrointestinal tumors in Asia remains high and may continue to increase. Therefore, effective prevention and treatment measures are essential to address the challenge posed by gastrointestinal tumors.

Global, regional, and national burden of ischemic stroke, 1990-2021: an analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021

Background

Ischemic stroke remains a major contributor to global mortality and morbidity. This study aims to provide an updated assessment of rates in ischemic stroke prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021, specifically focusing on including prevalence investigation alongside other measures. The analysis is stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

Data for this study was obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). To quantify temporal patterns and assess trends in age-standardized rates of ischemic stroke prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASDR), and DALYs, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were computed over the study period. The analyses were disaggregated by gender, 20 age categories, 21 GBD regions, 204 nations/territories, and 5 SDI quintiles. R statistical package V 4.4.2 was performed for statistical analyses and plot illustrations.

Findings

In 2021, the global burden of ischemic stroke remained substantial, with a total of 69,944,884.8 cases with an ASPR of 819.5 cases per 100,000 individuals (95% UI: 760.3-878.7). The ASIR was 92.4 per 100,000 people (95% UI: 79.8-105.8), while the ASDR was 44.2 per 100,000 persons (95% UI: 39.3-47.8). Additionally, the age-standardized DALY rate was 837.4 per 100,000 individuals (95% UI: 763.7-905). Regionally, areas with high-middle SDI exhibited the greatest ASPR, ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALY rates, whereas high SDI regions had the lowest rates. Geospatially, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASPR, while Eastern Europe showed the highest ASIR. The greatest ASDR and age-standardized DALY rates were observed in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, as well as North Africa, and the Middle East. Among countries, Ghana had the highest ASPR, and North Macedonia had both the highest ASIR and ASDR. Furthermore, North Macedonia also exhibited the highest age-standardized DALY rate.

Interpretation

Regions with high-middle and middle SDI continued to experience elevated ASPR, ASIR, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rates. The highest ischemic stroke burden was observed in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.

Funding

None.

The Burden of Occupational Noise-Induced Hearing Loss From 1990 to 2019: An Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data

OBJECTIVES

The relationship between long-term exposure to occupational noise and hearing loss has been extensively documented. We aimed to assess spatial and temporal changes in the burden of occupational noise-induced hearing loss (ONIHL) in 204 countries and territories with varying socio-demographic indexes (SDI) from 1990 to 2019.

DESIGN

Temporal and spatial trends in age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) for ONIHL were estimated by sex, age, SDI level, country, and geographic region from 1990 to 2019. We used the Joinpoint model to calculate annual average percentage changes to assess such trends and projected trends in ASDR for ONIHL globally and across different income regions from 2020 to 2044 using an age-period-cohort model. We fitted the relationship between ASDR and SDI, ASDR and healthcare access and quality index, respectively.

RESULTS

Overall, the global burden of ONIHL has decreased since 1990, especially in middle and lower SDI regions. In 2019, the global ASDR for ONIHL was 84.23 (95% confidence interval: 57.46 to 120.52) per 100,000 population. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASDR for ONIHL decreased by 1.72% (annual average percentage change = -0.05, 95% confidence interval: -0.07 to -0.03). Our projections showed a decreasing trend in the global ONIHL burden until 2044. ASDR and SDI ( R = -0.8, p < 0.05), ASDR and healthcare access and quality index ( R = -0.75, p < 0.05) showed significant negative correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

The global ONIHL burden has decreased over the past three decades, especially in regions with middle and lower SDI levels. However, the global ONIHL burden still remained severe in 2019, notably among males, the middle-aged and elderly, and regions with lower SDI levels.

Global burden of breast cancer and attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. This study aimed to assess the global burden of breast cancer and identify attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors associated with breast cancer. We obtained and analyzed the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2021. We assessed geographical variations and the impact of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using regression analysis and stratification by SDI quintiles. Additionally, we estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study.

RESULTS

Globally, breast cancer incident cases increased from 875,657 in 1990 to 2,121,564 in 2021. The ASIR rose from 16.42 to 26.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.54-1.60). High SDI regions showed the highest ASIR (66.89 per 100,000 in 2021), while Low SDI regions had the lowest (6.99 per 100,000 in 2021). The global ASDR decreased from 10.42 to 8.54 per 100,000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 313.36 to 261.5 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021. However, these improvements were not uniform across SDI regions. Risk factors included high body-mass index, alcohol use, tobacco, and high fasting plasma glucose, with variations across SDI regions.

CONCLUSION

The global burden of breast cancer has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with disparities observed across SDI regions. While high SDI areas show improvements in mortality and DALYs, lower SDI regions face increasing burdens. Targeted interventions addressing modifiable risk factors and improving healthcare access in less developed regions are crucial for reducing the global impact of breast cancer.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of migraine among youths and young adults aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

BACKGROUND

Migraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15-39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

METHODS

Our comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15-39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35-39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories.

CONCLUSION

The global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine.

Exploring Cancer Incidence Trends by Age and Sex Among 14.14 Million Individuals in China From 2007 to 2021: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Sex is a crucial factor in the development, progression, and treatment of cancer, making it vital to examine cancer incidence trends by sex for effective prevention strategies.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the incidence of cancer in China between 2007 and 2021, with a focus on sex-based trends.

METHODS

A population-based cancer registry comprising 14.14 million individuals was maintained between 2007 and 2021 by the Beijing Municipal Health Big Data and Policy Research Center. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cancers were calculated using the Segi population. The average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression model, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict cancer incidence in the next 10 years.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2021, the study included 651,342 incident patients with cancer, of whom 51.2% (n=333,577) were women. The incidence indicated by the ASR for all cancers combined was 200.8 per 100,000 for women and 184.4 per 100,000 for men. The increase in incidence indicated by AAPC for all malignancies combined significantly increased in women between 2007 and 2021 (AAPC=3.1%; P<.001), whereas it remained constant in men (AAPC=0.3%; P=.30). Although the overall incidence of all cancers indicated by AAPC increased in young men (AAPC=3.2%; P=.01), the greatest increase was observed among young women (AAPC=6.1%; P<.001). The incidence rate ratio for cancer in women increased among subsequent younger generations compared with patients born in the 1962-1966 cohort. The ASR in women will increase 1.6-fold over the next 10 years, with women having twice the incidence rate of men by 2031.

CONCLUSIONS

The rising incidence of cancer among women in China has become a growing concern, emphasizing the need for increased efforts in cancer prevention and early screening, especially among young women.

Metabolic risks remain a serious threat to cardiovascular disease: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Metabolic factors are major and controllable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and few studies have described this burden. We aim to assess it from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends through 2034. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) provides data on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels. Numbers, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used. Future trends were estimated by NORDPRED model. The deaths cases of metabolic-related CVD increased from 8.61 million (95% UI: 7.91-9.29) to 13.71 million (95% UI: 12.24-14.94) globally. The ASDR continued to decline globally (EAPC = -1.36). The burden was heavier in male and middle-aged people and elderly people. CVD-related ASDR caused by high systolic blood pressure (SBP) had a downward trend globally (EAPC = -1.45), while trends of high body mass index (BMI) (EAPC = 1.29, 1.97, 0.92) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (EAPC = 0.95, 1.08, 0.46) were increasing in the middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions, respectively. Compared to 2015-2019, cumulative deaths will increase by 27.85% from 2030 to 2034, while ASDR will decrease 10.47%. The metabolic-related CVD burden remained high globally and deaths will continue to rise in the future. Men, middle-aged and elderly people were focus of concern. High SBP was globally well-managed over the past 30 years, but the CVD burden due to high BMI and FPG remained high. Exceptional initiatives are needed to regarding interventions targeting high BMI and FPG in middle and lower SDI regions.

The role of tumor-associated macrophages in the radioresistance of esophageal cancer cells via regulation of the VEGF-mediated angiogenic pathway

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) are known to promote tumor growth, invasion, metastasis, and protumor angiogenesis, but the role of TAMs in evading radiotherapy in esophagus cancer remains unclear. In this study, we first induced TAMs from human monocytes (THP-1) and identified using immunofluorescence and Western blotting assays. We then co-cultured them with human esophageal cancer cell lines. CCK-8, colony formation, Transwell, scratch test, and TUNEL assays showed that TAMs could promote proliferation, survival rate, invasion, migration, and radioresistance and could inhibit apoptosis of the esophageal squamous carcinoma cell lines KYSE-150 and TE-1 before and after radiotherapy both in vivo and in vitro. Using LV-VEGFA-RNAi lentiviral vectors, we also found that TAMs could increase the expression of VEGFA and that inhibition of VEGFA could inhibit the biological function caused by TAMs. Finally, a Western blotting assay was used to evaluate the expression of various factors underlying the mechanism of TAMs. VEGFA, MAPK, P-MAPK, BCL-2, and Snail proteins were found to be overexpressed in co-cultured groups, whereas after VEGFA inhibition, MAPK, P-MAPK, BCL-2, and Snail proteins were found to be significantly downregulated in the radiotherapy group. These study results offer important information regarding the mechanism of radioresistance in esophageal cancer.

Innovative regression model-based decision support tool for optimizing radiotherapy techniques in thoracic esophageal cancer

Background

Modern radiotherapy exemplified by intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), has transformed esophageal cancer treatment. Facing challenges in treating thoracic esophageal cancer near vital organs, this study introduces a regression model-based decision support tool for the optimal selection of radiotherapy techniques.

Methods

We enrolled 106 patients diagnosed with locally advanced thoracic esophageal cancer in this study and designed individualized IMRT and VMAT radiotherapy plans for each patient. Detailed dosimetric analysis was performed to evaluate the differences in dose distribution between the two radiotherapy techniques across various thoracic regions. Single-factor and multifactorial logistic regression analyses were employed to establish predictive models (P1 and P2) and factors such as TLV/PTV ratio. These models were used to predict the compliance and potential advantages of IMRT and VMAT plans. External validation was performed in a validation group of 30 patients.

Results

Using predictive models, we developed a data-driven decision support tool. For upper thoracic cases, VMAT plans were recommended; for middle/lower thoracic cases, the tool guided VMAT/IMRT choices based on TLV/PTV ratio. Models P1 and P2 assessed IMRT and VMAT compliance. In validation, the tool showed high specificity (90.91%) and sensitivity (78.95%), differentiating IMRT and VMAT plans. Balanced performance in compliance assessment demonstrated tool reliability.

Conclusion

In summary, our regression model-based decision support tool provides practical guidance for selecting optimal radiotherapy techniques for thoracic esophageal cancer patients. Despite a limited sample size, the tool demonstrates potential clinical benefits, alleviating manual planning burdens and ensuring precise, individualized treatment decisions for patients.

PD-1 inhibitors in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a survival analysis of reconstructed patient-level data

Background

Recently, a sum of trials of programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) inhibitors combined with chemotherapy have shown excellent efficacy compared to chemotherapy alone in patients with previously untreated, advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, there is no head-to-head comparison and consensus on which immunotherapy regimen results in better survival outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the survival efficacy of various PD-1 inhibitor-based therapies in the first-line treatments for patients with advanced ESCC.

Methods

Data collected prior to 31 July 2023 were searched in the PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science databases. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival curves were pooled using the MetaSurv package. Survival data were compared by reconstructed individual patient data.

Results

A total of 4,162 patients and seven randomized controlled trials were included. After synthesizing, PD-1 inhibitors prolonged median OS from 11.3 months (95% CI (confidence interval) 10.7-11.7) to 15.6 months (95% CI 14.7-16.3). Based on reconstructed patient-level data, the toripalimab, tislelizumab, and sintilimab group achieved the longest OS, whereas the sintilimab and tislelizumab group had the lowest risk of recurrence than other treatments. In patients with a combined positive score of ≥10, sintilimab had better OS efficacy than pembrolizumab (HR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.52-0.96). In terms of tumor proportion score of ≥1%, camrelizumab, nivolumab, and toripalimab showed proximate survival benefits in both OS and progression-free survival.

Conclusion

PD-1 inhibitor combined with chemotherapy significantly improved the survival time of patients with advanced ESCC. Toripalimab, tislelizumab, and sintilimab plus chemotherapy showed the best OS benefit. Longer progression-free benefits might be generated from adding tislelizumab and sintilimab to chemotherapy. Sintilimab was strongly recommended for patients with high programmed cell death-ligand 1 abundance.

Systematic Review Registration

[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/], identifier [CRD42024501086].

Pancreatic cancer mortality trends attributable to high fasting blood sugar over the period 1990-2019 and projections up to 2040

Background

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a prevalent malignancy within the digestive system, with diabetes recognized as one of its well-established risk factors.

Methods

Data on PC mortality attributed to high fasting blood sugar were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 online database. To assess the temporal trends of PC burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) between 1990 and 2019 were determined using a generalized linear model. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using the integrated nested Laplacian approximation algorithm was employed to project the disease burden over the next 20 years.

Results

Globally, the crude death number of PC attributable to HFPG almost tripled (from 13,065.7 in 1990 to 48,358.5 in 2019) from 1990 to 2019, and the ASDR increased from 0.36/100,000 to 0.61/100,000 with an EAPC of 2.04 (95% CI 1.91-2.16). The population aged ≥70 years accounted for nearly 60% of total deaths in 2019 and experienced a more significant increase, with the death number increasing approximately fourfold and the ASDR increasing annually by 2.65%. In regions with different sociodemographic indexes (SDIs), the highest disease burden was observed in the high-SDI region, whereas more pronounced increasing trends in ASDR were observed in the low to middle-SDI, low-SDI, and middle-SDI regions. Additionally, a significantly negative association was found between EAPCs and ASDRs of PC attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2019. Moreover, the BAPC model predicts that ASDR and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate for PC attributed to HFPG was projected to increase obviously for men and women from 2019 to 2040.

Conclusions

The burden of PC attributed to HFPG has increased globally over the past three decades, with the elderly population and high-SDI regions carrying a relatively greater disease burden, but more adverse trends observed in low-SDI areas. Furthermore, the burden is projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years. Hence, more tailored prevention methodologies should be established to mitigate this increasing trend.

Diaphragmatic dysfunction is associated with postoperative pulmonary complications in the aged patients underwent radical resection of esophageal cancer: a prospective observational study

Background

Diaphragmatic dysfunction escalates the susceptibility to postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs). Currently, no study reports the occurrence of diaphragmatic dysfunction correlated with PPCs following radical resection of esophageal cancer in aged patients. We aimed to diagnose diaphragmatic dysfunction via ultrasonography and analyze diaphragmatic dysfunction's relation with PPCs after radical resection of esophageal cancer surgery in aged patients.

Methods

This prospective observational study comprised 86 aged patients undergoing radical resection of esophageal cancer. Patient characteristics data and intraoperative details were collected. Ultrasonography was performed before (preoperative) and after (first, third, and fifth day postoperatively) surgery. Outcome measures included PPCs within seven days postoperative, occurrence of diaphragmatic dysfunction, and short-term prognosis.

Results

After excluding 14 patients, we finally analyzed clinical data from 72 patients. The prevalence of PPCs was higher in the patients with diaphragmatic dysfunction than those without (19 of 23, 83% vs. 21 of 49, 43%, P=0.004). Postoperative diaphragmatic dysfunction was positively correlated with PPCs in patients who underwent elective radical esophageal cancer surgery (r=0.37, P=0.001). Persistent diaphragmatic dysfunction, furthermore, was positively correlated with the development of multiple PPCs (r=0.43, P<0.001). The logistic regression analysis revealed that age, total open procedure, and postoperative diaphragmatic dysfunction were identified as significant risk factors for PPCs, while total open procedure was an independent risk factor for diaphragmatic dysfunction.

Conclusions

Postoperative diaphragmatic dysfunction positively correlates with developing PPCs. Continuous monitoring of postoperative diaphragmatic function can screen high-risk patients with PPCs, which has specific clinical significance. Age, total open procedure, and diaphragmatic dysfunction are identified as risk factors for developing PPCs, while total open procedure specifically increases the risk for postoperative diaphragmatic dysfunction.

Prognostic prediction and comparison of three staging programs for patients with advanced (T2-T4) esophageal squamous carcinoma after radical resection

Purpose

Lymph node-based staging protocols are frequently employed to evaluate the prognosis of esophageal cancer, yet their accuracy remains contentious. The present study was conducted to assess the prognostic significance of three lymph node staging systems, namely N stage, lymph node rate (LNR), and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), in patients diagnosed with advanced (T2-T4) esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

This cohort comprised 319 eligible patients, with an additional 409 individuals retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, forming the validation cohort. Differences in overall survival (OS) of patients between groups were assessed using the log-rank test. Prognostic independent risk variables were identified, and lymph nodes (LN) prognostic models were built using multivariate Cox regression analysis. Besides, the predictive accuracy of each model was evaluated utilizing the (-2) log-likelihood ratio (-2LLR), the likelihood ratio χ2 score (LRχ2), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Harrell's concordance index (C-index). To further evaluate the potential superiority of the model, a nomogram was constructed for comparison with the conventional Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) staging approach.

Results

Independent prognostic factors for advanced ESCC include the N stage, LNR, and LODDS. Herein, LODDS presented higher values for C-index and LRχ2, and lower values for AIC and -2LLR in OS compared to the others. Consequently, a nomogram was constructed based on LODDS. Calibration curves exhibited strong agreement, and assessment through C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated promising clinical applicability.

Conclusion

LODDS emerges as a promising future prognostic indicator. After surgery, the proposed model holds the potential to provide valuable treatment recommendations for patients with advanced ESCC.

Prediction of hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer based on machine learning

This study aimed to establish a machine learning (ML) model for predicting hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer. We retrospectively analyzed patients with esophageal cancer recorded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2020. We identified 11 indicators associated with the risk of liver metastasis through univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Subsequently, these indicators were incorporated into six ML classifiers to build corresponding predictive models. The performance of these models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A total of 17,800 patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer were included in this study. Age, primary site, histology, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, surgical intervention, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, bone metastasis, and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer patients. Among the six models developed, the ML model constructed using the GBM algorithm exhibited the highest performance during internal validation of the dataset, with AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.885, 0.868, 0.667, and 0.888, respectively. Based on the GBM algorithm, we developed an accessible web-based prediction tool (accessible at https://project2-dngisws9d7xkygjcvnue8u.streamlit.app/ ) for predicting the risk of hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer.

Global spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint regression analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019, and projections until 2044

Lymphoma is a dissimilar collection of malignant neoplasms arising from the clonal propagation of lymphocytes. It is conventionally classified into two categories: Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal patterns in the incidence of lymphoma worldwide over the past few decades and forecast the future trends from 2020 to 2044. Data on HL and NHL were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In an effort to estimate the incidence rate trend, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was exploited. What's more, to project the disease burden by 2044, the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed. In 2019, higher incidence rates were observed in males and the elderly for both subtypes. Over the last three decades, a significant decline in the age-standardized incidence rate of HL was observed, while NHL has shown an increasing trend. By 2044, the age-standardized incidence rate of HL is anticipated to decrease in males and increase in females, while that of NHL is expected to rise. This study presents a new assessment of the spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma. Significant emphasis should be placed on the effective management and long-term monitoring of patients to mitigate the potential future impact of the disease.

Burden of blindness and vision loss in China over the past 30 years: findings and predictions based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIMS

To investigate the burden of blindness and vision loss (BVL) in China over the past 30 years according to year, age and sex, and to estimate future predictions.

METHODS

We analysed the years lived with disability (YLDs), number of cases, age-standardised YLD rates (ASYRs) and age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPRs) of BVL in China from 1990 to 2019. We focused on changes over time using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Additionally, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the BVL burden from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

The number of YLDs and prevalent cases due to BVL increased from 2.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.74 to 3.72) and 90.76 million (95% UI 72.21 to 111.92) in 1990 to 5.42 (95% UI 3.61 to 8.02) and 211.67 million (95% UI 168.21 to 259.66) in 2019, respectively. The BVL ASYRs and ASPRs showed a decreasing trend, with EAPCs of -0.13 (95% CI -0.28 to 0.02) and -0.11 (95% CI -0.19 to -0.04), respectively. The elderly and female populations had a higher BVL burden. The numbers of YLDs and cases due to BVL are projected to continue rising to 7.74 and 279.49 million in 2030, respectively. The ASYRs and ASPRs also showed increasing trends.

CONCLUSION

While rates of BVL in China have decreased, there has been a notable increase in the number of YLDs and new cases over the past 30 years. Projections suggest that the burden of BVL will continue to rise over the next 11 years. To address this challenge, appropriate policies must be implemented.

A novel prognostic signature based on smoking-associated genes for predicting prognosis and immune microenvironment in NSCLC smokers

BACKGROUND

As a highly heterogeneous tumor, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is famous for its high incidence and mortality worldwide. Smoking can cause genetic changes, which leading to the occurrence and progress of NSCLC. Nevertheless, the function of smoking-related genes in NSCLC needs more research.

METHODS

We downloaded transcriptome data and clinicopathological parameters from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases, and screened smoking-related genes. Lasso regression were applied to establish the 7-gene signature. The associations between the 7-gene signature and immune microenvironment analysis, survival analysis, drug sensitivity analysis and enriched molecular pathways were studied. Ultimately, cell function experiments were conducted to research the function of FCGBP in NSCLC.

RESULTS

Through 7-gene signature, NSCLC samples were classified into high-risk group (HRG) and low-risk group (LRG). Significant difference in overall survival (OS) between HRG and LRG was found. Nomograms and ROC curves indicated that the 7-gene signature has a stable ability in predicting prognosis. Through the analysis of immune microenvironment, we found that LRG patients had better tumor immune activation. FCGBP showed the highest mutation frequency among the seven prognostic smoking related genes (LRRC31, HPGD, FCGBP, SPINK5, CYP24A1, S100P and FGG), and was notable down-regulated in NSCLC smokers compared with non-smoking NSCLC patients. The cell experiments confirmed that FCGBP knockdown promoting proliferation, migration, and invasion in NSCLC cells.

CONCLUSION

This smoking-related prognostic signature represents a promising tool for assessing prognosis and tumor microenvironment in smokers with NSCLC. The role of FCGBP in NSCLC was found by cell experiments, which can be served as diagnostic biomarker and immunotherapy target for NSCLC.

Radiation-induced upregulation of FGL1 promotes esophageal squamous cell carcinoma metastasis via IMPDH1

BACKGROUND

While radiation therapy remains pivotal in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) treatment, the perplexing phenomenon of post-radiation metastasis presents a formidable clinical challenge. This study investigates the role of fibrinogen-like protein 1 (FGL1) in driving ESCC metastasis following radiation exposure.

METHODS

FGL1 expression in post-radiation ESCC cells was meticulously examined using qRT-PCR, western blotting, and immunofluorescence. The impact of FGL1 on ESCC cell invasion and migration was assessed through Transwell and wound healing assays. In vivo, the metastatic potential of ESCC in response to FGL1 was scrutinized using nude mice models. Comprehensive RNA sequencing and functional experiments elucidated the intricate mechanism associated with FGL1.

RESULTS

Radiation induced upregulation of FGL1 in ESCC cells through FOXO4, intensifying ESCC cell invasion and migration. Targeted knockdown of FGL1 effectively alleviated these characteristics both in vitro and in vivo. FGL1 depletion concurrently suppressed IMPDH1 expression. Rescue experiments underscored that IMPDH1 knockdown robustly reversed the pro-invasive effects induced by FGL1 in ESCC cells. ESCC tissues exhibited heightened IMPDH1 mRNA levels, demonstrating a correlation with patient survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiation-induced upregulation of FGL1 propels ESCC metastasis through IMPDH1, proposing a potential therapeutic target to mitigate post-radiotherapy metastasis in ESCC patients.

Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

INTRODUCTION

Breast cancer (BC) is a malignant disease that occurs worldwide and poses serious health burden.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prevalence of BC burden in the Western Pacific region (WPR) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. To analyze the driving factors and put forward the region-oriented improvement.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, BC cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate in WPR from 1990 to 2019 was obtained and analysed. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in BC, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) was used to predict trends over the next 25 years.

RESULTS

In conclusion, BC incidence and deaths in the WPR have increased rapidly over the past 30 years and are expected to continue to increase between 2020 and 2044. Among behavioral and metabolic factors, high body-mass index was the main risk factor for BC mortality in middle-income countries, whereas alcohol use was the main risk factor in Japan. Age is a key factor in the development of BC, with 40 years being the critical point. Incidence trends coincide with the course of economic development.

CONCLUSIONS

The BC burden remains an essential public health issue in the WPR and will increase substantially in the future. More efforts should be made in middle-income countries to prompt the health behavior and minimize the burden of BC because these nations accounts for the majority of BC burden in the WPR.

Contribution of High Body Mass Index to the Global Burden of Esophageal Cancer: A Population-Based Study from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

The changing patterns of obesity have had a significant impact on the epidemiology of esophageal cancer (EC).

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the specific burden of EC associated with high body mass index (BMI) across different geographical and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

METHODS

Mortality, age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed for 204 countries and territories. Decomposition analysis, frontier and health inequality analyses, and age-period-cohort models were employed to examine the factors driving disease burden and to predict future trends.

RESULTS

High BMI contributed to 89,903.9 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 27,878.9-171,254.6] EC-related deaths, an ASDR of 1.1 (95% UI 0.3-2.1) per 100,000 population, and 2,202,314.1 (681,901.4-4,173,080.3) DALYs in 2019. There was an increasing trend in these figures over the 29-year period. The middle SDI region (31,023.8, 95% UI 9,180.4-62,631.5) and East Asia (36,939.9, 95% UI 9,620.5-81,495) carried the highest burden of EC-related deaths. Disease burden increased across all age groups and genders globally. Population growth was a major factor driving EC deaths across all SDI quintiles. Disparities in disease burden were observed across countries at all development levels. Predictive models indicated a continued increase in EC-related deaths in the next decade.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provided a comprehensive understanding of the global burden of EC associated with high BMI over the past decades. Opportunities exist to reduce this burden at all SDI levels through targeted interventions and policies.

The efficacy and safety of compound kushen injection for adults with esophageal cancer: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE

Compound Kushen injection (CKI), derived from the traditional Chinese medicine Sophora flavescens, has been widely prescribed to treat a variety of cancers including esophageal cancer (ESCA) in China.

AIM OF THE STUDY

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of CKI for ESCA systematically.

METHODS

The protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database with No. CRD42022320503. PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang Database, Clinicaltrials, and Chi-CTR were searched to select RCTs that compared CKI with other interventions for ESCA with outcome measures including clinical efficacy, complete response, quality of life (QoL), adverse events (AEs), and serious AEs (SAEs). The Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 (RoB2) tool was used to assess the quality of RCT. The overall effect sizes were estimated with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) on binary outcome data. Meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses on characteristics of RCTs were performed to test the robustness. Publication bias was also detected with different methods. The evidence strength was assessed with the Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation method.

RESULTS

This study finally included 35 RCTs with 2491 ESCA patients. The RoB of RCTs was some concern. The effect size of OR was 2.92 (95% CI [2.39, 3.57]) on clinical efficacy, 2.27 (95% CI [1.84, 2.81]) on complete response, 3.71 (95% CI [2.86, 4.80]) on QoL, 0.39 (95% CI [0.30, 0.50]) on AEs, and 0.13 (95% CI [0.07, 0.27]) on SAEs where the statistical significances (P < 0.00001) were found for all outcome measures. These overall effect sizes showed that CKI was more efficacious and safety for ESCA. Moreover, subgroup and sensitivity analyses found consistent results. Most publication bias analyses showed insignificant differences. The evidence strengths were moderate.

CONCLUSION

The moderate evidence from this comprehensive PRISMA-compliant meta-analysis suggested that CKI may be a valuable alternative for adult patients with ESCA on its significant efficacy and safety. However, more RCTs of high quality with low RoB, large sample sizes, and long follow-up periods are still warranted to update the ESCA clinical guideline for physicians and policymakers in further study.

Genetic and molecular characterization of metabolic pathway-based clusters in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is one of the most aggressive types of squamous cell carcinoma and represents a significant proportion of esophageal cancer. Metabolic reprogramming plays a key role in the occurrence and development of ESCC. Unsupervised clustering analysis was employed to stratify ESCC samples into three clusters: MPC1-lipid type, MPC2-amino acid type, and MPC3-energy type, based on the enrichment scores of metabolic pathways extracted from the Reactome database. The MPC3 cluster exhibited characteristics of energy metabolism, with heightened glycolysis, cofactors, and nucleotide metabolism, showing a trend toward increased aggressiveness and poorer survival rates. On the other hand, MPC1 and MPC2 primarily involved lipid and amino acid metabolism, respectively. In addition, liquid chromatography‒mass spectrometry-based metabolite profiles and potential therapeutic agents were explored and compared among ESCC cell lines with different MPCs. MPC3 amplified energy metabolism markers, especially carnitines. In contrast, MPC1 and MPC2 predominantly had elevated levels of lipids (primarily triacylglycerol) and amino acids, respectively. Furthermore, MPC3 demonstrated a suboptimal clinical response to PD-L1 immunotherapy but showed increased sensitivity to the doramapimod chemotherapy regimen, as evident from drug sensitivity evaluations. These insights pave the way for a more personalized therapeutic approach, potentially enhancing treatment precision for ESCC patients.

Increasing Burden of Osteoarthritis in China: Trends and Projections from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiology of osteoarthritis in China in a comprehensive and reliable way, to project its future epidemiological patterns, and to mitigate its health hazards. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data were extracted and analyzed from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. Trends in osteoarthritis epidemiology were explored using joinpoint regression analysis. Additionally, we analyzed dynamic trends using the sociodemographic index (SDI) of China. To assess and predict the epidemiology of osteoarthritis from 2020 to 2039, we used both the Bayesian age-period-cohort model and Nordpred model. RESULTS The number of prevalent cases, incident cases, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for osteoarthritis in China increased from 51.8, 4.6, and 1.8 million, respectively, in 1990, to 132.8, 10.7, and 4.7 million, respectively, in 2019, and the average annual percentage changes were 3.286, 2.938, and 3.324, respectively. The prevalence and YLDs peaked in the population aged over 90 years old, while the incidence peaked in the population aged around 50 years old. A significant positive correlation was found between osteoarthritis burden and SDI. Osteoarthritis burden is expected to continue to increase. In the population studied here, it was higher in women than in men, but this may invert by 2039. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence, incidence, and YLDs of osteoarthritis had significantly increased and may continue to increase during the next 2 decades. Prevention and treatment strategies should target women, middle-aged individuals, and the elderly.

Changing trend of oral cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next 20 years

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the trend of oral cancer (OC) disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the disease burden in the next 20 years.

METHODS

OC data collected for 15 years old in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), with respective 95% CI, were used to assess incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), and their trends.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rate of incidence, mortality, and DALY of OC in China showed an upward trend with EAPCs of 2.33 (95% CI = 2.01-2.63), 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15-1.73), and 1.24 (95% CI = 0.95-1.52), respectively. The main risk factors for OC in China were smoking and alcohol consumption. New cases, deaths, and DALYs due to OC are predicted to increase >1.5 times over the next 20 years.

CONCLUSION

The number of cases, deaths, and DALYs will continue to increase in the next 20 years. Therefore, the control of risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol consumption, needs to be strengthened to reduce the burden of OC in China.

Mortality burden and future projections of major risk factors for esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

This study, based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, aimed to report the long-term trend in mortality rates caused by risk factors for esophageal cancer (EC) in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden of EC mortality caused by these risk factors over the next 15 years.

METHODS

We examined six risk factors that influenced EC mortality rates in China and their respective rankings. Furthermore, we analyzed the number of deaths and crude mortality rates (CMR) caused by these risk factors for both sexes and different age groups. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and the number of deaths across all age groups were also analyzed. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to predict the trends in ASMR burden caused by these risk factors in the future.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the percentage changes in ASMR for EC caused by the six risk factors in China were as follows: smoking (- 33.4%), alcohol consumption (- 23.0%), low fruit intake (- 73.6%), low vegetable intake (- 96.0%), high Body Mass Index (BMI) (25.1%), and tobacco chewing (- 32.8%). In 2019, the top three risk factors contributing to EC ASMR in China were smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI. Overall, the ASMR for EC in China fluctuated and declined from 1990 to 2019. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while low fruit intake and high BMI were the most common risk factors for females. The impact of these risk factors on EC mortality increased with age, except for the elderly population. BAPC analysis indicated that the influence of these risk factors on ASMR was expected to remain relatively stable in the next 15 years, suggesting a continued significant burden of EC.

CONCLUSION

The projected burden of EC mortality in China was expected to continue increasing steadily over the next 15 years, highlighting the pressing need for disease control measures. To alleviate this burden, targeted prevention and control policies addressing risk factors for EC such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI are necessary.

Influencing factors of knowledge proficiency of general practitioners in rural China for esophageal cancer prevention and treatment: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

This study aims to investigate the knowledge of rural general practitioners (GPs) in esophageal cancer (EC) prevention and treatment in China and analyze relevant influencing factors, so as to improve the ability of rural GPs in EC prevention and treatment.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted from November 5, 2021, to November 20, 2021. A self-designed questionnaire was used to conduct an online survey. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the influencing factors of knowledge proficiency of GPs in rural China for EC prevention and treatment.

RESULTS

This study included 348 participants from 12 rural areas in Hebei Province. The mean accuracy rate on all question items was 42.3% ± 10.67%. Sex (OR = 2.870, 95% CI: 1.519-5.423), educational level (OR = 3.256, 95% CI: 1.135-9.339), and comprehension of clinical practice guidelines for EC (OR = 4.305, 95% CI: 2.023-9.161) were significant predictors for GPs' knowledge proficiency of EC prevention and treatment (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The study indicated that knowledge proficiency of rural GPs of EC prevention and control still awaits to be improved. Sex, educational level, and comprehension of clinical practice guidelines for EC were significant predictors for their proficiency.

The trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions over 25 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

High blood pressure is a key pathogenetic factor that contributes to the deterioration of kidney function. However, the incidence trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease (CKD) has rarely been studied; therefore, we aimed to analyze the global, regional, and national patterns, temporal trends as well as burden of hypertension-related CKD.

METHODS

We extracted data on hypertension-related CKD from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, including the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) and further described according to year, location, sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the variation in incidence, DALYs, and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model framework to analyze the underlying trends in prevalence by age, period, and birth cohort. Nordpred APC analysis was performed to predict the future morbidity and mortality of hypertension-related CKD.

RESULTS

In 2019, a total of over 1.57 million new hypertension-related CKD cases were reported worldwide, a 161.97% increase from 1990. Compared to 1990, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) increased in all 21 regions in 2019. In all countries and territories except Iceland, the EAPC in ASIR and the lower boundary of its 95% confidence interval (CI) were higher than 0. ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were not identical among countries with different SDI regions in 2019; additionally, ASIR and ASMR were significantly different among sexes in all SDI regions in 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality counts globally continue to increase to 2044, and there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1990 and 2019, the ASIR of hypertension-related CKD demonstrated an ascending trend, and according to our projections, it would remain on the rise for the next 25 years. With remarkable global population growth, aging, and an increasing number of patients with hypertension, the burden of disease caused by hypertension-related CKD continues to increase.

Global burden study of lower respiratory infections linked to low temperatures: an analysis from 1990 to 2019

Low temperature conditions have been linked to a heightened susceptibility to lower respiratory infections (LRIs). Yet, our comprehension of the LRIs' disease burden due to such conditions remains limited, especially when considering the diverse socio-demographic indexes (SDIs) and climate types across various nations and regions. We examined the variations over time and space in the impact of LRIs due to low temperatures across a diverse set of 204 nations and regions, each with unique SDIs and climate types, spanning the years 1990 to 2019. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 was used for this retrospective analysis. The burden of LRIs attributable to low temperatures was estimated by stratifying by sex, age, country, climate type, and SDI, including age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR). We employed Joinpoint models to compute the annual average percent changes (AAPCs) in order to evaluate the trends in LRIs burden due to low temperatures from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, we utilized Poisson age-period-cohort models to forecast the global and income-specific trends in LRIs burden due to low temperatures for the period 2020-2044. Generalized additive mixed models were used to fit changes in the disease burden of different climate regions. The relationship between SDI and both ASMR and ASDR was determined using models grounded in Gaussian process regression. In general, since the year 1990, there has been a significant reduction in the worldwide impact of LRIs due to low temperatures. This decrease is particularly noticeable among infants and the elderly, as well as in regions with a boreal climate and those with an average SDI. In 2019, LRIs induced by low temperatures showed an ASMR of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.07) and an ASDR of 53.73 (95% CI: 17.5, 93.22) for every 100,000 individuals. A global reduction was observed in the ASMR and ASDR for LRIs over the period from 1990 to 2019, showing a decrease of 60.27% and 77.5%, in that order. For ASMR and ASDR, the AAPC values were found to be - 3.3 (95% CI: - 3.4, - 3.1) and - 5 (95% CI: - 5.2, - 4.9), in that order. However, a contrasting pattern was observed in southern Latin America, where an increase was noted in the ASMR for LRIs induced by low temperatures [AAPC: 0.5; 95% CI: (0.3, 0.8)]. Low temperature has decreased as an environmental risk factor for LRIs globally over 30 years, especially in middle SDI regions and boreal climates, but remains important for infants and the elderly population.

Global burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter: Trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2044

Aims

Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) is a critical public health issue worldwide, and its epidemiological patterns have changed over the decades. This work aimed to assess the global trends of AF/AFL and attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.

Methods and results

The present study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to examine the temporal trends, attributable risks, and projections of AF/AFL. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR) were employed for this purpose. The findings revealed that in 2019, AF/AFL accounted for 4.72 million incident cases, 59.70 million prevalent cases, 0.32 million deaths, and 8.39 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Furthermore, the results indicated that males under 70 years of age had a higher incidence, prevalence, and DALYs than females, while the rates were similar for both genders between 70 and 74 years. However, this pattern was reversed in individuals over the age of 75, with females exhibiting a higher total incidence, prevalence, and DALYs than males. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs increased with an increase in the socio-demographic index (SDI). The three primary contributors to AF/AFL were high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and smoking. Majority of risk factors exhibited a unimodal distribution, with a peak between the ages of 50 and 70.

Conclusions

The disease burden of AF/AFL is still severe worldwide and getting worse. To encourage prevention and treatment, systematic regional surveillance of AF/AFL should be put in place.

Global prevalence, burden and trend in HIV and drug-susceptible tuberculosis co-infection from 1990 to 2019 and prediction to 2040

Objectives

The purpose of this study is to describe the current situation and forecast the trends of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) in different countries, across various age groups and genders.

Methods

We obtained data on the number of cases, age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized death rate from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. These data were used to describe the distribution and burden of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and DS-TB in different regions, genders, and age groups. We employed joinpoint regression analysis to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model was established to forecast the future trends of co-infection up to 2040.

Results

The prevalence and burden of co-infection varied across different age groups and genders. The territories with the higher disease burden were distributed in some Asian and African countries. In terms of temporal trends, the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of HIV and DS-TB co-infection exhibited an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, and the prediction indicated a slow downward trend from 2019 to 2040.

Conclusions

The co-infection of HIV and DS-TB posed a grave threat to public health and economic development. What's more, there existed a significant disparity between the actual state of co-infection and the desired goals for prevention and control.

Rad51 and Systemic Inflammatory Indicators as Novel Prognostic Markers in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

RAD51 is a central protein involved in homologous recombination, which has been linked to cancer development and progression. systemic inflammatory indicator markers such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio have also been implicated in cancer. However, the relationship between Rad51 and these inflammatory markers in esophageal cancer patients undergoing esophagectomy is not yet understood.

METHODS

We retrospectively observed 320 esophageal cancer patients who underwent esophagectomy. We collected clinical characteristics, postoperative complications, and survival analysis data and analyzed the relationship between Rad51 expression, inflammatory markers, and prognosis.

RESULTS

We found significant linear relationships among the inflammatory markers. There were also close relationships between Rad51 expression and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio or C-reactive protein. Patients with low lymphocyte percentage were more likely to have low Rad51 expression (P = .026), high C-reactive protein (P = .007), and high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (P = .006). Low lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio was associated with poor overall survival and was an independent prognostic factor (HR = 2.214; 95% confidence interval: 1.044-4.695, P = .038). In patients without lymph node metastases, low albumin (HR= 0.131; 95% confidence interval: 0.025-0.687, P = .016), high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR = 0.002; 95% confidence interval: 0.000-0.221, P = .009), and high Rad51 expression (HR = 14.394; 95% confidence interval: 2.217-97.402, P = .006) were associated with poor overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found a close correlation between elevated Rad51 expression and inflammatory markers. High Rad51 expression, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and low lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio are associated with lower survival rates. The combined assessment of Rad51 and inflammatory markers can be useful for preoperative assessment and prognostic evaluation in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients.

Hypoxia-induced factor-1α promotes radioresistance of esophageal cancer cells by transcriptionally activating LINC01116 and suppressing miR-3612 under hypoxia

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a challenging tumor to treat with radiotherapy, often exhibiting resistance to this treatment modality. To explore the factors influencing radioresistance, we focused on the role of hypoxia-induced factor-1α (HIF-1α), and its interaction with the long noncoding RNA long intergenic nonprotein coding RNA 1116 (LINC01116). We analyzed the LINC01116 expression in EC and EC cell lines/human normal esophageal epithelial cell line (Het-1A). LINC01116 was silenced/overexpressed in EC109/KYSE30 cells under hypoxia, followed by radioresistance assessment. We measured HIF-1α levels in hypoxic EC cells and further validated the binding of HIF-1α with LINC01116, analyzing their interaction in EC cells. We then performed experiments in EC109 cells by transfection them with sh-HIF-1α/oe-LINC01116 to verify the effects. Additonally, we analyzed the localization of LINC01116 and its binding with miR-3612, followed by a combined experiment performed to validate the results. Our findings indicated that LINC01116 was highly expressed in EC and further elevated in hypoxic EC cells. LINC01116 was expressed at a high level in EC, which was further elevated in EC cells under hypoxic conditions. Knockdown of LINC01116 triggered EC cell apoptosis, thus suppressing radioresistance. Further investigation revealed that HIF-1α transcriptionally activated LINC01116 expression under hypoxia, and silencing HIF-1α lowered EC cell radioresistance by downregulating LINC01116. Under hypoxic conditions, LINC01116 could function as a sponge for miR-3612 and inhibit its expression. This interaction between LINC01116 and miR-3612 played a crucial role in mediating radioresistance in EC cells. Briefly, under hypoxic conditions, HIF-1α facilitates radioresistance of EC cells by transcriptionally activating LINC01116 expression and downregulating miR-3612.

Acetylshikonin induces apoptosis through the endoplasmic reticulum stress-activated PERK/eIF2α /CHOP axis in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Acetylshikonin (AS) is an active component of Lithospermum erythrorhizon Sieb. et Zucc that exhibits activity against various cancers; however, the underlying mechanisms of AS against oesophageal squamous carcinoma (ESCC) need to be elusive. The research explores the anti-cancer role and potential mechanism of AS on ESCC in vitro and in vivo, providing evidences for AS treatment against ESCC. In this study, we firstly demonstrated that AS treatment effectively inhibits cell viability and proliferation of ESCC cells. In addition, AS significantly induces G1/S phage arrest and promotes apoptosis in ESCC cell lines. Further studies reveal that AS induces ER stress, as observed by dose- and time-dependently increased expression of BIP, PDI, PERK, phosphorylation of eIF2α , CHOP and splicing of XBP1. CHOP knockdown or PERK inhibition markedly rescue cell apoptosis induced by AS. Moreover, AS treatment significantly inhibits ESCC xenograft growth in nude mice. Elevated expression of BIP and CHOP is also observed in xenograft tumours. Taken together, AS inhibits proliferation and induces apoptosis through ER stress-activated PERK/eIF2α /CHOP pathway in ESCC, which indicates AS represents a promising candidate for ESCC treatment.

A sensitive and robust plasma-based DNA methylation panel for early detection of target gastrointestinal cancers

BACKGROUND

Target gastrointestinal cancers (GICs), encompassing esophageal cancer (EC), gastric cancer (GC), and colorectal cancer (CRC), originate within a single readily accessible luminal organ system and are diagnosable using endoscopy. However, endoscopy is an invasive procedure with low compliance and no plasma-based DNA methylation assay for the early detection of GICs.

METHODS

Nine potential DNA methylation markers were identified and evaluated in tissue (n=60) and plasma (n=155) cohorts to select the most suitable markers. A training cohort (n=244) and a validation cohort (n=199), including GICs patients, benign tumors, gastrointestinal polyps, and controls, were enrolled to develop and validate a DNA methylation panel. An independent prospective cohort (n=158) was used to validate the panel's performance and compare it with blood protein tumor markers.

RESULTS

Six out of nine candidate methylation markers with excellent discrimination abilities in both tissue and plasma cohorts were selected for the DNA methylation panel. The panel demonstrated high AUC values of 0.937 (EC), 0.968 (GC), and 0.987 (CRC) in training cohort, and achieved AUC values of 0.921 (EC), 0.921 (GC), and 0.959 (CRC) in validation cohort. Notably, it achieved impressive AUC values of 0.971 and 0.843 for identifying stage I GICs in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In the prospective cohort, the six-marker panel showed comparable AUC values to CEA, AFP, and CA19-9 (0.935, 0.769, 0.663, and 0.668, respectively).

CONCLUSION

This study successfully developed and validated a novel, robust, sensitive, and specific plasma-based DNA methylation panel, offering a promising strategy for the early detection of GICs.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Esophageal Cancer Burden Attributable to Behavioral, Metabolic, and Dietary Risk Factors From 1990 to 2019: Longitudinal Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Esophageal cancer (EC) is the sixth leading cause of cancer-related burden with distinct regional variations globally. Although the burden of EC has decreased, the specific reasons for this decline are still unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to uncover the spatiotemporal patterns of EC risk-attributable burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 so that prevention and control strategies of EC can be prioritized worldwide.

METHODS

We extracted EC risk-attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) from the global burden of disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2019, in terms of behavioral, metabolic, and dietary factors by age, sex, and geographical location. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to assess the long-term trends in the ASMRs and ASDRs of EC due to specific risk factors.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the greatest decrease in EC burden was attributed to low intake of fruits and vegetables. An AAPC of -2.96 (95% CI -3.28 to -2.63) and -3.12 (95% CI -3.44 to -2.79) in ASMR and ASDR was attributable to a low-fruit diet, while an AAPC of -3.60 (95% CI -3.84 to -3.36) and -3.64 (95% CI -3.92 to -3.35) in ASMR and ASDR was attributed to a low-vegetable diet. However, the trends in ASMRs and ASDRs due to high BMI showed significant increases with an AAPC of 0.52 (95% CI 0.29-0.75) in ASMR and 0.42 (95% CI 0.18-0.66) in ASDR from 1990 to 2019 compared to significant decreases in other attributable risks with AAPC<0 (P<.05). East Asia had the largest decrease in EC burden due to low-vegetable diets, with an AAPC of -11.00 (95% CI -11.32 to -10.67) in ASMR and -11.81 (95% CI -12.21 to -11.41) in ASDR, followed by Central Asia, whereas Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI, with an AAPC of 3.28 (95% CI 3.14-3.42) and 3.09 (95% CI 2.96-3.22), respectively. China had the highest EC burden attributed to smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, and low-fruit diets. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant decrease in EC burden attributable to smoking, alcohol use, chewing tobacco, low-fruit diets, and low-vegetable diets in most countries, wherein a significant increase in the EC burden was due to high BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that smoking and alcohol consumption are still the leading risk factors of EC burden and that EC burden attributable to low intake of fruits and vegetables has shown the largest decline recently. The risks of ASMRs and ASDRs of EC showed distinct spatiotemporal patterns, and future studies should focus on the upward trend in the EC burden attributed to high BMI.

Global Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease burden attributable to air pollution from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

The disease burden attributable to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is significant worldwide. Some studies have linked exposure to air pollution to COPD, but there has been little research on this.

METHODS

We aimed to assess the COPD-related disease burden attributable to air pollution from multiple epidemiological perspectives. This study conducted a three-stage analysis. Firstly, we reported on the burden of disease worldwide in 2019 by different subgroups including sex, age, region, and country. Secondly, we studied the trends in disease burden from 1990 to 2019. Finally, we explored the association of some national indicators with disease burden to look for risk factors.

RESULTS

In 2019, the death number of COPD associated with air pollution accounted for 2.32% of the total global death, and the number of DALY accounted for 1.12% of the global DALY. From 1990 to 2019, the death number of COPD associated with air pollution increased peaked at 1.41 million in 1993, fluctuated, and then declined. We found the same temporal pattern of DALY. The corresponding age-standardized rates had been falling. At the same time, the burden of COPD associated with air pollution was also affected by some national indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that air pollution-related COPD contributed to a significant global disease burden. We called for health policymakers to take action and interventions targeting vulnerable countries and susceptible populations.

Secular Trends in Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Attributable to Dietary Carcinogens From 1990 to 2019 and Projections Until 2044 in China: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about trends in or projections of the disease burden of dietary gastric and esophageal cancer (GEC) in China.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to report GEC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, predict them through 2044, and decompose changes in terms of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes.

METHODS

We retrieved dietary GEC data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database and used joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models to analyze trends in dietary GEC deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 in China. We used a Bayesian age period cohort model of integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the disease burden of GEC through 2044 and obtained the estimated population of China from 2020 to 2050 from the Global Health Data Exchange website. Finally, we applied a recently developed decomposition method to attribute changes between 2019 and 2044 to population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes.

RESULTS

The summary exposure values and age-standardized rates decreased significantly from 1990 to 1999, with percentage changes of -0.06% (95% CI -0.11% to -0.02%) and -0.05% (95% CI -0.1% to -0.02%), respectively. From 1990 to 2019, for dietary esophageal cancer, the percentage change in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was -0.79% (95% CI -0.93% to -0.58%) and the percentage change in age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) was -0.81% (95% CI -0.94% to -0.61%); these were significant decreases. For dietary stomach cancer, significant decreases were also observed for the percentage change in ASMR (-0.43%, 95% CI -0.55% to -0.31%) and the percentage change in ASDR (-0.47%, 95% CI -0.58% to -0.35%). In addition, data from both the joinpoint regression and annual percentage change analyses demonstrated significantly decreasing trends for the annual percentage change in ASMR and ASDR for GEC attributable to dietary carcinogens. The overall annual percentage change (net drift) was -5.95% (95% CI -6.25% to -5.65%) for dietary esophageal cancer mortality and -1.97% (95% CI -2.11% to -1.83%) for dietary stomach cancer mortality. Lastly, in 2044, dietary esophageal cancer deaths and DALYs were predicted to increase by 192.62% and 170.28%, respectively, due to age structure (121.58% and 83.29%), mortality change (76.81% and 92.43%), and population size (-5.77% and -5.44%). In addition, dietary stomach cancer deaths and DALYs were predicted to increase by 118.1% and 54.08%, with age structure, mortality rate change, and population size accounting for 96.71% and 53.99%, 26.17% and 3.97%, and -4.78% and -3.88% of the change, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the predicted age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs due to dietary GEC show downward trends, the absolute numbers are still predicted to increase in the next 25 years due to rapid population aging in China.

Methyltransferase-like 3 facilitates the stem cell properties of esophageal cancer by upregulating patched homolog 1 via N6-methyladenosine methylation

Patched homolog 1 (PTCH1) has been proven to facilitate cell proliferation and self-renewal in esophageal cancer (EC). The present study intended to exploit the influence of PTCH1 on EC cells and the potential mechanisms. PTCH1 and methyltransferase-like 3 (METTL3) expression were examined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and Western blot in EC cell lines. Following the loss- and gain-of-function assays, cell proliferation was examined by cell counting kit (CCK)-8 and clone formation assays, invasion and migration by Transwell and scratch assays, and the sphere-forming ability of stem cells by cell sphere-forming assay. The expression of stemness genes NANOG homeobox protein (NANOG), octamer-binding transcription factor 4 (Oct4), and sex-determining region Y-box 2 (SOX2) was detected by Western blot. Methylated RNA immunoprecipitation (Me-RIP) assay was performed to test N6-methyladenosine (m6A) modification levels of PTCH1 mRNA, RIP and photoactivatable ribonucleoside-enhanced crosslinking and immunoprecipitation (PAR-CLIP) assays to assess the binding of METTL3 to PTCH1, and actinomycin D treatment to examine PTCH1 mRNA stability. A xenograft tumor model in nude mice was established for further in vivo verification. PTCH1 and METTL3 expression was high in EC cells. Knockdown of METTL3 reduced m6A level and stability of PTCH1 mRNA. Knockdown of PTCH1 or METTL3 declined invasion, proliferation, migration, and NANOG, Oct4, and SOX2 levels in EC cells, and reduced sphere-forming abilities of EC stem cells. Overexpression of PTCH1 abolished the suppressive effect of METTL3 knockdown on EC cells in vitro. METTL3 knockdown repressed tumor growth in nude mice, which was negated by further overexpressing PTCH1. METTL3 facilitated growth and stemness of EC cells via upregulation of PTCH1 expression by enhancing PTCH1 m6A modification.NEW & NOTEWORTHY PTCH1 has been proved to facilitate cell proliferation and self-renewal in esophageal cancer. We studied the upstream regulation mechanism of PTCH1 by METTL3 through m6A modification. Our results provide a new target and theoretical basis for the treatment of esophageal cancer.

The Description and Prediction of Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years Cases, and Corresponding Age-Standardized Rates for Global Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes is a life-long disease that poses a serious threat to safety and health. We aimed to assess the disease burden attributable to diabetes globally and by different subgroups, and to predict future disease burden using statistical models.

METHODS

This study was divided into three stages. Firstly, we evaluated the disease burden attributable to diabetes globally and by different subgroups in 2019. Second, we assessed the trends from 1990 to 2019. We estimated the annual percentage change of disease burden by applying a linear regression model. Finally, the age-period-cohort model was used to predict the disease burden from 2020 to 2044. Sensitivity analysis was performed with time-series models.

RESULTS

In 2019, the number of incidence cases of diabetes globally was 22239396 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 20599519-24058945). The number of prevalence cases was 459875371 (95% UI 423474244-497980624) the number of deaths cases was 1551170 (95% UI 1445555-1650675) and the number of disability-adjusted life years cases was 70880155 (95% UI 59707574-84174005). The disease burden was lower in females than males and increased with age. The disease burden associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus was greater than that with type 1; the burden also varied across different socio-demographic index regions and different countries. The global disease burden of diabetes increased significantly over the past 30 years and will continue to increase in the future.

CONCLUSION

The disease burden of diabetes contributed significantly to the global disease burden. It is important to improve treatment and diagnosis to halt the growth in disease burden.

Burden of esophageal cancer between 2010 and 2019 in Asian countries by geographical region and sociodemographic index: A comparison with global data

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to describe the trends in incidence, mortality, and burden of esophageal cancer (EC) in Asia from 2010 through 2019 and compare with other global continental data.

METHODS

We collected EC data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study from 2010 to 2019 in 49 countries and territories in Asia based on the sociodemographic index (SDI). For all locations, annual case data and age-standardized rates (ASRs) were extracted to investigate the EC incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The ASR relative difference (%) between years and the male/female (M/F) ratio were calculated. Data are reported in values and 95% uncertainty interval (UI).

RESULTS

In 2019, more than 70% of EC new cases, deaths, prevalence, and DALYs occurred in Asian countries. From 2010 to 2019, incidences, deaths, prevalence cases, and DALY number of EC increased over 1.10-, 1.07-, 1.14-, and 1.03-fold, in Asia. During this period, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (DALYs ASR) of EC decreased by 18, 21, 14, and 22%, respectively. The rate of decline in Asia is higher than in the world and other continents. In 2019, age-specific incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY cases of EC cancer peaked at 65-74, 70-74, 65-69, and 65-69 years, respectively. In 2019, the highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALYs ASR of EC were observed in East Asian countries, while having the highest decreasing trend. In 2019, among high SDI Asian countries, Taiwan had the highest ASIR, ASPR, and DALYs ASR, and the United Arab Emirates had the highest ASDR. Among high-middle SDIs, Kazakhstan had the highest ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, and DALYs ASR; among middle SDIs, China had the highest ASIR, ASDR, and ASPR, and Viet Nam had the highest DALYs ASR; among low-middle SDIs, Mongolia had the highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALY ASR of EC cancer. Among low SDI Asian countries, Pakistan had the highest ASIR and ASPR, and DALY ASR for EC cancer. For four indicators, in most countries, the ratio of men was higher than women, and in some countries, this ratio reached more than 10 times.

CONCLUSION

Although the rate of decline in incidence, death, prevalence and burden of EC in Asia was higher than in other areas in the last 10 years, more than 70% of these amounts occur in Asia. Therefore, it appears that adopting appropriate strategies in the field of identifying and controlling modifiable risk factors for EC, implementing screening programs, and timely diagnosis and treatment will help in reducing the burden of this disease in Asian countries.

Temporal trends in the disease burden of osteoarthritis from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

This study aimed to report trends in the global burden of osteoarthritis (OA) from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends in the following years based on Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The study included reporting on the prevalence and incidence rates, as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Additionally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and Estimated Annual Percent Change (EAPC) were analyzed along with related factors, finally, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis were utilized to predict the trends in the upcoming years. In 2019, globally, there were about 414.7 million (95%UI: 368.8 to 464.4 million) OA incident cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) about 492.21 (95% UI:438.66 to 551.5) per 100000. And there were about 527.8 million (95% UI: 478.7 to 584.8 million) OA prevalent cases in 2019. The DALYs for OA increased to about 189.49 million (95%UI: 95.71 to 376.60 million) from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC:0.14%; 95%CI: 0.12% to 0.16%). There was a positive association between ASR and Socio-demographic index (SDI) both at the regional and national level. BAPC results showed that ASR in females would decrease but increase in males in the following years. In conclusion, the global burden of OA has risen steadily between 1990 and 2019, placing a significant strain on society. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. To alleviate this burden, it is necessary to implement measures that target risk factors such as high body mass index.

Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years

BACKGROUND

The specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Consecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90-2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38-1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990-2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades.

Global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2045 based on the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The global cancer burden is substantial and spiraling. Although rehabilitation specialists could offer assistance, oncologic rehabilitation is still underutilized and not a routine part of clinical oncology guidelines worldwide. Global investigations of disease prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer are valuable for facilitating clinical practice improvement and health resource management. The objective of this study is to report the global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden of TBL cancers from 1990 to 2019 and provide predictions for 2045.

Methods

To estimate the need for rehabilitation, the data used from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to calculate the prevalence, YLDs, and the attributable risk factors of TBL cancer. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model were established to forecast the future health burden. All analyses were done at the global level and then some in the aggregation with the seven World Bank regions. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 4.2.1) and Microsoft Excel (version 2019).

Results

Globally in 2019, 3,212,307 cases of TBL cancer (95% UI 2,937,037-3,488,346) could have benefitted from rehabilitation, contributing to 544,215 (95% UI 396,134-700,099) YLDs. Over the past 30 years, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of prevalence (EAPC = 0.51) and YLDs (EAPC = 0.03) increased. Throughout this period, the global prevalence and YLDs counts were greater in males than females. The ASR of prevalence and YLDs are projected to show a slight downward trend by 2045 on the global scale, the overall prevalence and YLDs due to TBL cancer are likely to increase further, but all indicators show a growing trend in females.

Conclusion

TBL cancer remains one of the major public health issues globally. According to the forecasted results, the burden of YLDs due to TBL cancer will continue to rise, and the increment is higher in females than males. A rising number of patients worldwide will benefit from rehabilitation services in the future to achieve precise control and management throughout the TBL cancer patient lifecycle.

Cancer trends and risk factors in China over the past 30 years (1990-2019)

Objective: We retrospectively studied cancer mortality and incidence in China from 1990 to 2019, investigated the cancer trends and risk factors, and analyzed the effects of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on cancer mortality and incidence. Methods: Data was obtained in "Our world in data" in October 2022 to explore mortality rates of different cancers and their trends and the roles of cancer risk factors, including GDP, air pollution, etc. Results: Over the past 30 years, cancer had been China's second leading cause of death. Tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers, with an annual growth rate of 6.5%, were the most frequently diagnosed cancers. The burden of different cancers changed as the mortality rate of cancer changed. The age-standardized cancer mortality rate had decreased by 19.0%; cancer deaths in all age groups had increased. While the number of cancer deaths in the elderly aged ≥70 did not increase distinctively, its percentage increased by 52.1% and 1.7% annually. The percentage of patients with new-onset cancer increased by 240% and 8.6% annually. For every USD 1,000 increase in GDP, cancer deaths decreased by 2.3/100,000. Tobacco, meat, and alcohol consumption and BMI had increased and were not conducive to the future control of cancer. Conclusions: We summarized the incidence and mortality of major cancers and their trends in China over the past 30 years and analyzed the effects of GDP and the roles of cancer risk factors. Overall GDP growth and effective control of air pollution reduced cancer mortality, while population aging, smoking, alcohol consumption, BMI increasing, and meat consumption brought challenges for cancer control.

Prognostic value of pretreatment systemic immune-inflammation index in Chinese esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients receiving radical radiotherapy: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The association between pretreatment systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and long-term survival among Chinese esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients who received radical radiotherapy remains unclear. The aim of this study was to identify the prognostic role of pretreatment SII in Chinese ESCC patients receiving radical radiotherapy based on current evidence.

METHODS

The PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and CNKI databases were searched up to March 18, 2023. Primary and secondary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), respectively. The hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were combined to assess the predictive role of pretreatment SII for long-term survival of Chinese ESCC patients receiving radiotherapy. All statistical analyses were conducted by STATA 15.0 software.

RESULTS

A total of 8 eligibility studies involving 2101 cases were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled results demonstrated that elevated pretreatment SII was significantly related to worse OS (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.24-2.02, P < .001) and PFS (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.13-1.57, P < .001). Besides, subgroup based on TNM stage showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment SII could serve as a novel prognostic factor in Chinese ESCC patients receiving definitive radiotherapy and patients with an elevated SII may experience poorer survival.

Downregulation of Claudin5 promotes malignant progression and radioresistance through Beclin1-mediated autophagy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a highly prevalent and aggressive cancer with poor treatment outcomes. Despite the critical role of tight junction proteins in tumorigenesis, the involvement of Claudin5 in ESCC remains poorly understood. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the role of Claudin5 in ESCC malignant progression and radioresistance, as well as the underlying regulatory mechanisms.

METHODS

The expression of Claudin5 was evaluated in esophageal cancer tissue using both public databases and 123 clinical samples. CCK-8, transwell invasion, wound healing and clonogenic survival assays were used to examine the proliferation, invasion, migration and radiosensitivity of ESCC cells in vitro. Xenograft and animal lung metastasis experiments were conducted to examine the impact of Claudin5 on tumor growth and lung metastasis in vivo. The effect of Claudin5 on autophagy was detected via transmission electron microscopy, western blotting and autophagy flux. Immunohistochemical staining was used to detect Claudin5 expression in ESCC patient samples. The statistical difference was assessed with Student t test or one-way ANOVA. The correlation between Claudin5 expression and radiotherapy response rate was performed by the Chi-square test. The significance of Kaplan-Meier curves was evaluated by the Logrank test.

RESULTS

Claudin5 expression was downregulated in ESCC tissues. Downregulation of Claudin5 promoted ESCC cell proliferation, invasion, and migration both in vitro and in vivo. Downregulation of Claudin5 decreased the radiosensitivity of ESCC cells. Moreover, downregulation of Claudin5 promoted autophagy and the expression of Beclin1. Beclin1 knockdown reversed the effect of Claudin5 downregulation on autophagy induction and the promotion of ESCC cell malignant progression and radioresistance. Additionally, low expression of Claudin5 in ESCC cancer tissues was associated with poor radiotherapy response and prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, these findings suggest that downregulation of Claudin5 promotes ESCC malignant progression and radioresistance via Beclin1-autophagy activation and may serve as a promising biomarker for predicting radiotherapy response and patient outcome in ESCC.