Climate change and waterborne disease risk in the Great Lakes region of the U.S

Seasonal assessment of risks to canoeists' health in a Taiwanese recreational river

Canoeing is the most favorite recreational activity in several Taiwanese rivers. However, river water frequently contains elevated levels of pathogenic Escherichia coli, which has adverse effects on human health. This study adopted a quantitative microbial risk assessment to analyze seasonal risks to canoeists' health in the Dongshan River, Taiwan. First, river E. coli concentrations were statistically analyzed to determine the seasonal distributions. The exposure duration (ED) was determined by field observations. To propagate the parametric uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to model the probability distributions of seasonal pathogenic E. coli levels, ingestion rates, and ED for athletes. Finally, the beta-Poisson dose-response model was implemented to determine seasonal health risks for canoeists. The study results indicated that the health risks in infection probability ranged from 0.5 × 10-3 to 8.8 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day for tourists and 1.2 × 10-3 to 7.7 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day for athletes. The health risks in the Lizejian Bridge area for tourists exceeded an acceptable level suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 8 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day, in spring for an ED of 2 h/day, and the health risks for tourists and athletes approached this level in spring and winter for an ED exceeding or equaling 1.5 h/day. According to sensitivity analysis, the geometric standard deviation of river E. coli levels was the most sensitive parameter affecting seasonal risks to canoeists' health. To protect canoeists' health, effluent sewer systems, best management practices, and total maximum daily loads should be promptly implemented in this watershed.

Holistic One Health Surveillance Framework: Synergizing Environmental, Animal, and Human Determinants for Enhanced Infectious Disease Management

Recent pandemics, including the COVID-19 outbreak, have brought up growing concerns about transmission of zoonotic diseases from animals to humans. This highlights the requirement for a novel approach to discern and address the escalating health threats. The One Health paradigm has been developed as a responsive strategy to confront forthcoming outbreaks through early warning, highlighting the interconnectedness of humans, animals, and their environment. The system employs several innovative methods such as the use of advanced technology, global collaboration, and data-driven decision-making to come up with an extraordinary solution for improving worldwide disease responses. This Review deliberates environmental, animal, and human factors that influence disease risk, analyzes the challenges and advantages inherent in using the One Health surveillance system, and demonstrates how these can be empowered by Big Data and Artificial Intelligence. The Holistic One Health Surveillance Framework presented herein holds the potential to revolutionize our capacity to monitor, understand, and mitigate the impact of infectious diseases on global populations.

Present and future: infectious tropical travel rashes and the impact of climate change

In this article, we discuss pertinent cutaneous findings with which patients may present after travel to tropical destinations. We address arthropod-borne infectious diseases such as cutaneous leishmaniasis, Chagas disease, cutaneous larva migrans, and myiasis. We discuss other relevant diseases with cutaneous signs such as monkey pox and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We provide clinicians with information regarding the background, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of these tropical rashes. In addition, we address the impact that climate change will have on the temporal and geographic incidence of these rashes. Viral, fungal, and vector-borne diseases have seen a geographic expansion into more northern latitudes. Among these are tick-borne Lyme disease, aquatic snail-related seabather's eruption, and atopic dermatitis. As these diseases spread, we believe that the updated information within this article is significant to the practicing physician in today's warming world.

Climate Change Impacts on Urban Sanitation: A Systematic Review and Failure Mode Analysis

Climate change will stress urban sanitation systems. Although urban sanitation uses various infrastructure types and service systems, current research appears skewed toward a small subset of cases. We conducted a systematic literature review to critically appraise the evidence for climate change impacts on all urban sanitation system types. We included road-based transport networks, an essential part of fecal sludge management systems. We combined the evidence on climate change impacts with the existing knowledge about modes of urban sanitation failures. We found a predominance of studies that assess climate impacts on centralized sewerage in high-income contexts. The implications of climate change for urban nonsewered and complex, fragmented, and (partially) decentralized sanitation systems remain under-researched. In addition, the understanding of the impacts of climate change on urban sanitation systems fails to take a comprehensive citywide perspective considering interdependencies with other sectors and combinations of climate effects. We conclude that the evidence for climate change impacts on urban sanitation systems is weak. To date, research neither adequately represents the variety of urban sanitation infrastructure and service systems nor reflects the operational and management challenges of already stressed systems.

Associations between extreme precipitation, drinking water, and protozoan acute gastrointestinal illnesses in four North American Great Lakes cities (2009-2014)

Climate change is already impacting the North American Great Lakes ecosystem and understanding the relationship between climate events and public health, such as waterborne acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGIs), can help inform needed adaptive capacity for drinking water systems (DWSs). In this study, we assessed a harmonized binational dataset for the effects of extreme precipitation events (≥90th percentile) and preceding dry periods, source water turbidity, total coliforms, and protozoan AGIs - cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis - in the populations served by four DWSs that source surface water from Lake Ontario (Hamilton and Toronto, Ontario, Canada) and Lake Michigan (Green Bay and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA) from January 2009 through August 2014. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality and found extreme precipitation weeks preceded by dry periods increased the relative risk of protozoan AGI after 1 and 3-5 weeks in three of the four cities, although only statistically significant in two. Our results suggest that the risk of protozoan AGI increases with extreme precipitation preceded by a dry period. As extreme precipitation patterns become more frequent with climate change, the ability to detect changes in water quality and effectively treat source water of varying quality is increasingly important for adaptive capacity and protection of public health.

Interactions of E. coli with algae and aquatic vegetation in natural waters

Both algae and bacteria are essential inhabitants of surface waters. Their presence is of ecological significance and sometimes of public health concern triggering various control actions. Interactions of microalgae, macroalgae, submerged aquatic vegetation, and bacteria appear to be important phenomena necessitating a deeper understanding by those involved in research and management of microbial water quality. Given the long-standing reliance on Escherichia coli as an indicator of the potential presence of pathogens in natural waters, understanding its biology in aquatic systems is necessary. The major effects of algae and aquatic vegetation on E. coli growth and survival, including changes in the nutrient supply, modification of water properties and constituents, impact on sunlight radiation penetration, survival as related to substrate attachment, algal mediation of secondary habitats, and survival inhibition due to the release of toxic substances and antibiotics, are discussed in this review. An examination of horizontal gene transfer and antibiotic resistance potential, strain-specific interactions, effects on the microbial, microalgae, and grazer community structure, and hydrodynamic controls is given. Outlooks due to existing and expected consequences of climate change and advances in observation technologies via high-resolution satellite imaging, unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), and mathematical modeling are additionally covered. The multiplicity of interactions among bacteria, algae, and aquatic vegetation as well as multifaceted impacts of these interactions, create a wide spectrum of research opportunities and technology developments.

Climate Change Impacts on Microbiota in Beach Sand and Water: Looking Ahead

Beach sand and water have both shown relevance for human health and their microbiology have been the subjects of study for decades. Recently, the World Health Organization recommended that recreational beach sands be added to the matrices monitored for enterococci and Fungi. Global climate change is affecting beach microbial contamination, via changes to conditions like water temperature, sea level, precipitation, and waves. In addition, the world is changing, and humans travel and relocate, often carrying endemic allochthonous microbiota. Coastal areas are amongst the most frequent relocation choices, especially in regions where desertification is taking place. A warmer future will likely require looking beyond the use of traditional water quality indicators to protect human health, in order to guarantee that waterways are safe to use for bathing and recreation. Finally, since sand is a complex matrix, an alternative set of microbial standards is necessary to guarantee that the health of beach users is protected from both sand and water contaminants. We need to plan for the future safer use of beaches by adapting regulations to a climate-changing world.

Trends in regional enterococci levels at marine beaches and correlations with environmental, global oceanic changes, community populations, and wastewater infrastructure

An increase in the number of advisories issued for recreational beaches across south Florida (due to the fecal indicator bacteria, enterococci) has been observed in recent years. To evaluate the possible reasons for this increase, we reviewed weekly monitoring data for 18 beaches in Miami-Dade County, Florida, for the years 2000-2019. Our objective was to evaluate this dataset for trends in enterococci levels and correlations with various factors that might have influenced enterococci levels at these beaches. For statistical analyses, we divided the 20-year period of record into 5-year increments (2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2019). The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to identify statistically significant differences between the geometric mean of different periods. When all 18 beaches were collectively considered, a significant increase (p = 0.03) in enterococci was observed during 2015-2019, compared to the prior 15-year period of record. To better understand the potential causes for this increase, correlations were evaluated with environmental parameters (rainfall, air temperature, and water temperature), global oceanic changes (sea level and Sargassum), community populations (county population estimates and beach visitation numbers), and wastewater infrastructure (sewage effluent flow rates to ocean outfalls and deep well injection). In relation to the enterococci geometric mean, the correlation with Sargassum was statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval (p = 0.035). Population (p = 0.078), air temperature (p = 0.092), and sea level (p = 0.098) were statistically significant at 90% confidence intervals. Rainfall, water temperature, beach visitation numbers, and sewage effluent flow rates via deep well injection had positive correlations but were not significant factors. Sewage effluent flow rates to ocean outfalls had a negative correlation.

#Climate Change on TikTok: A Content Analysis of Videos

Current day youth have an important role in climate activism, as the decisions and policies made now will have long lasting impacts on the climate and sustainability. Climate change is becoming an increasing concern for younger generations. As such, the purpose of this study was to describe content related to climate change on TikTok. This study included 100 English-language videos related to climate change featured on TikTok. The hashtag #climatechange was chosen because it had the most views of any related hashtag at the time of the study. The number of views, comments, and likes were recorded for each video. Each video was also observed for the presence of predetermined content characteristics. The 100 videos sampled collectively received 205,551,200 views, 40, 203,400 likes, and 666,089 comments. Only eight of the 100 videos included information from a reputable source. Only three of the characteristics were featured in a majority (> 50) of the videos. These were, presents climate change as real (93), affected populations (76), and climate anxiety/frustration (57). Videos mentioning natural disasters garnered 63,453,100 (30.87%) views, 14,245,200 (35.43%) likes, and 236,493 (35.50%) comments. In all, 73 of the 100 videos mentioned at least one environmental impact. Videos including this theme earned 156,677,200 (76.22%) views, 32,000,700 (79.60%) likes, and 563,195 (84.55%) comments. Social media platforms such as TikTok are important tools for understanding popular opinion regarding public health issues such as global climate change. However, the presence of credible professionals is essential on platforms such as TikTok to increase the chances that messaging is as comprehensive as time allows, while also being scientifically sound.

Resilience and Equity in a Time of Crises: Investing in Public Urban Greenspace Is Now More Essential Than Ever in the US and Beyond

The intersecting negative effects of structural racism, COVID-19, climate change, and chronic diseases disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minorities in the US and around the world. Urban populations of color are concentrated in historically redlined, segregated, disinvested, and marginalized neighborhoods with inadequate quality housing and limited access to resources, including quality greenspaces designed to support natural ecosystems and healthy outdoor activities while mitigating urban environmental challenges such as air pollution, heat island effects, combined sewer overflows and poor water quality. Disinvested urban environments thus contribute to health inequity via physical and social environmental exposures, resulting in disparities across numerous health outcomes, including COVID-19 and chronic diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this paper, we build off an existing conceptual framework and propose another conceptual framework for the role of greenspace in contributing to resilience and health equity in the US and beyond. We argue that strategic investments in public greenspaces in urban neighborhoods impacted by long term economic disinvestment are critically needed to adapt and build resilience in communities of color, with urgency due to immediate health threats of climate change, COVID-19, and endemic disparities in chronic diseases. We suggest that equity-focused investments in public urban greenspaces are needed to reduce social inequalities, expand economic opportunities with diversity in workforce initiatives, build resilient urban ecosystems, and improve health equity. We recommend key strategies and considerations to guide this investment, drawing upon a robust compilation of scientific literature along with decades of community-based work, using strategic partnerships from multiple efforts in Milwaukee Wisconsin as examples of success.

Climate change and dermatology: An introduction to a special topic, for this special issue

Anthropogenic global climate change is a well-documented phenomenon that has led to average global temperatures climbing to approximately 1 °C above preindustrial (1850-1900) levels, with even higher regional deviations in some areas and significantly increased average warming in densely populated urban centers. In 2018, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change set a threshold of 1.5 °C of average warming (above the preindustrial baseline), beyond which our planet will become significantly less hospitable to human life. However, adverse human health impacts are already occurring due to current levels of global climate change, as summarized by publications such as The Lancet's annual "Countdown on Health and Climate Change," initiated in 2016. The human health impacts of climate change are truly cross-disciplinary, with nearly every medical specialty either already facing or set to face effects. The field of dermatology is not immune to these risks. This special issue of the International Journal of Women's Dermatology is dedicated to the cross section of dermatology and climate change. This initial article will serve as an overview to introduce readers to the topic and to lay the groundwork for the rest of the issue. We are delighted to work with the Women's Dermatological Society and welcome their support for this dedicated issue. Herein, you will read from up-and-coming stars in the field and established experts, including articles on the following key areas: infectious diseases, environmentally friendly office practices, sunscreens and the environment, refugee health, heat-related illness, the effect of air pollution on the skin, the impact of climate change on pediatric dermatology, implications for skin cancer, and skin issues related to flooding and extreme weather events.

Determining the prevalence, identity and possible origin of bacterial pathogens in soil

Soil biomes are vast, exceptionally diverse and crucial to the health of ecosystems and societies. Soils also contain an appreciable, but understudied, diversity of opportunistic human pathogens. With climate change and other forms of environmental degradation potentially increasing exposure risks to soilborne pathogens, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of their ecological drivers. Here we use the Galleria mellonella insect virulence model to selectively isolate pathogenic bacteria from soils in Cornwall (UK). We find a high prevalence of pathogenic soil bacteria with two genera, Providencia and Serratia, being especially common. Providencia alcalifaciens, P. rustigianii, Serratia liquefaciens and S. plymuthica strains were studied in more detail using phenotypic virulence and antibiotic resistance assays and whole-genome sequencing. Both genera displayed low levels of antibiotic resistance and antibiotic resistance gene carriage. However, Serratia isolates were found to carry the recently characterized metallo-β-lactamase blaSPR-1 that, although not conferring high levels of resistance in these strains, poses a potential risk of horizontal transfer to other pathogens where it could be fully functional. The Galleria assay can be a useful approach to uncover the distribution and identity of pathogenic bacteria in the environment, as well as uncover resistance genes with an environmental origin.

Climate Change and Inpatient Dermatology

Purpose of Review

Climate change represents a major existential threat facing the global community, and it has already begun to affect human health in a multitude of ways. This review highlights and discusses the implications that climate change has already had and is expected to have for inpatient dermatologists.

Recent Findings

There are a variety of conditions affected by climate changes. The distribution and frequencies of infectious diseases and their vectors are changing in line with variations in climate conditions. Increased temperatures have already been associated with exacerbation of existing skin conditions, such as atopic dermatitis, and recent evidence suggests that higher temperatures will also magnify the effects of harmful ultraviolet radiation. Extreme weather events that result from climate change are followed by an array of dermatologic conditions that may be unusual for the given location. Inpatient dermatologists should be prepared to manage these potentially unfamiliar dermatologic consequences of climate change.

Summary

Climate change will have widespread effects on the medical field, and inpatient dermatologists will be faced with their own unique set of challenges and practice variations. Practitioners should be familiar with the ongoing and predicted effects of climate change in their locations so that they can readily identify and treat associated conditions, and they should adjust their practice to reduce their carbon footprint and serve as a model for patients to do the same.

Numerical Modeling of Microbial Fate and Transport in Natural Waters: Review and Implications for Normal and Extreme Storm Events

Degradation of water quality in recreational areas can be a substantial public health concern. Models can help beach managers make contemporaneous decisions to protect public health at recreational areas, via the use of microbial fate and transport simulation. Approaches to modeling microbial fate and transport vary widely in response to local hydrometeorological contexts, but many parameterizations include terms for base mortality, solar inactivation, and sedimentation of microbial contaminants. Models using these parameterizations can predict up to 87% of variation in observed microbial concentrations in nearshore water, with root mean squared errors ranging from 0.41 to 5.37 log10 Colony Forming Units (CFU) 100 mL−1. This indicates that some models predict microbial fate and transport more reliably than others and that there remains room for model improvement across the board. Model refinement will be integral to microbial fate and transport simulation in the face of less readily observable processes affecting water quality in nearshore areas. Management of contamination phenomena such as the release of storm-associated river plumes and the exchange of contaminants between water and sand at the beach can benefit greatly from optimized fate and transport modeling in the absence of directly observable data.

Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections

Dysentery is water-borne and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a systematic review is lacking. We searched the worldwide literature using three sets of keywords and six databases. We identified and selected 98 studies during 1866-2019 and reviewed the relevant findings. Climate change, including long-term variations in factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and short-term variations in extreme weather events, such as floods and drought, mostly had a harmful impact on dysentery incidence. However, some uncertainty over the exact effects of climate factors exists, specifically in the different indexes for the same climate factor, various determinant indexes for different dysentery burdens, and divergent effects for different population groups. These complicate the accurate quantification of such impacts. We generalized two types of methods: sensitivity analysis, used to detect the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlations; and mathematical models, which quantify the impact of climate on dysentery, and include models that examine the associations (including negative binomial regression models) and quantify correlations (including single generalized additive models and mixed models). Projection studies mostly predict disease risks, and some predict disease incidence based on climate models under RCP 4.5. Since some geographic heterogeneity exists in the climate-dysentery relationship, modeling and projection of dysentery incidence on a national or global scale remain challenging. The reviewed results have implications for the present and future. Current research should be extended to select appropriate and robust climate-dysentery models, reasonable disease burden measure, and appropriate climate models and scenarios. We recommend future studies focus on qualitative investigation of the mechanism involved in the impact of climate on dysentery, and accurate projection of dysentery incidence, aided by advancing accuracy of extreme weather forecasting.

Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

BACKGROUND

Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation.

METHODS

Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s.

RESULTS

Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models.

DISCUSSION

If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

The NSERC Canadian Lake Pulse Network: A national assessment of lake health providing science for water management in a changing climate

The distribution and quality of water resources vary dramatically across Canada, and human impacts such as land-use and climate changes are exacerbating uncertainties in water supply and security. At the national level, Canada has no enforceable standards for safe drinking water and no comprehensive water-monitoring program to provide detailed, timely reporting on the state of water resources. To provide Canada's first national assessment of lake health, the NSERC Canadian Lake Pulse Network was launched in 2016 as an academic-government research partnership. LakePulse uses traditional approaches for limnological monitoring as well as state-of-the-art methods in the fields of genomics, emerging contaminants, greenhouse gases, invasive pathogens, paleolimnology, spatial modelling, statistical analysis, and remote sensing. A coordinated sampling program of about 680 lakes together with historical archives and a geomatics analysis of over 80,000 lake watersheds are used to examine the extent to which lakes are being altered now and in the future, and how this impacts aquatic ecosystem services of societal importance. Herein we review the network context, objectives and methods.

Understanding temporal and spatial variations of viral disease in the US: The need for a one-health-based data collection and analysis approach

Viral diseases exhibit spatial and temporal variation, and there are many factors that can affect their occurrence. The identification of these factors is critical in the efforts to predict and lessen viral disease burden. Because viral infection is able to spread to humans from the environment, animals, and other humans, the One-Health framework can be used to investigate the critical pathways through which viruses are transported and transmitted. A holistic approach, incorporating publicly available clinical data for human, livestock, and wildlife disease occurrence, together with environmental data reported in federal and state databases such as parameters related to land use, environmental quality, and weather, can enhance the understanding of variations in disease patterns, leading to the design and implementation of surveillance systems. An example analysis approach is presented for Michigan, United States, which is a state with large urban centers as well as a sizeable rural and agricultural population. Analysis of publicly available data from 2017 indicates that gastrointestinal (GI) and influenza-associated illnesses in Michigan may have been related with agricultural land use to a higher extent than with developed land use during that year. Meanwhile, hepatitis A virus appears to be most closely related with developed land use in dense population areas. GI illnesses may be related to precipitation, and this relationship is strongest in the springtime, although GI illnesses are most common in the winter months. Integration of human-related clinical data, animal disease data, and environmental data can ultimately be used for prioritization of the most critical locations and times for viral outbreaks in both urban and rural environments.

Climate and Land Use Influences on Bacteria Levels in Stormwater

The influence of climatic variables and land use on fecal coliform (FC) levels in stormwater collected from outfalls throughout southern Vancouver Island between 1995 and 2011 are examined through statistical analyses, Fourier analysis, Multiple Linear Regression (LR) and Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLR). Kendall’s τ-b demonstrated that FC levels were significantly and positively correlated with the amount of residential area within a drainage catchment generating the runoff, and that FC levels were location dependent. Climatic variables of temperature and antecedent dry period length were significantly and positively correlated with FC levels at both the sampling location level and across the region overall. Precipitation and flowrates were negatively correlated with FC levels. Fourier analysis showed that monthly FC levels shared the same 12 month cycle (peaking in July) as precipitation and temperature. MLR modelling was applied by aggregating the LogFC data by order of magnitude. The MLR model shows that the data are subject to different influences depending on the season and as well, the month of the year. The land use and climate analyses suggest that future climate change impact studies attempted on nearshore bacterial water quality should be conducted at the urban catchment scale.

Variable Background Flow on Aquatic Toxicant Exposure Alters Foraging Patterns on Crayfish

Climate change is expected to alter hydrological cycles on global and regional scales, impacting groundwater and surface water inputs to stream habitats. In the midwestern United States, the volume and frequency of inputs are expected to become increasingly variable. This region has a high incidence of agriculture, creating enormous potential for transport of pesticides and herbicides into aquatic ecosystems. Metolachlor, an herbicide for corn and soybean crops, has been demonstrated to contaminate surface water and groundwater in the region. This study examines the impact of variable flow conditions on the toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of metolachlor in a macroinvertebrate found in midwestern streams, the rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus). Changes in crayfish foraging behavior were analyzed using a Mixed Model ANCOVA. Under toxicant exposure, crayfish significantly increased their consumption of macrophytes, but only under the variable flow regime. Thus, the increased variability in toxicant exposure impacted crayfish foraging behavior more than other flow regimes. This significant interaction between flow regime and metolachlor exposure suggests that the greater variability in toxicant inputs to streams may lead to more severe changes in behavior for exposed organisms.

Impacts of a changing earth on microbial dynamics and human health risks in the continuum between beach water and sand

Although infectious disease risk from recreational exposure to waterborne pathogens has been an active area of research for decades, beach sand is a relatively unexplored habitat for the persistence of pathogens and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). Beach sand, biofilms, and water all present unique advantages and challenges to pathogen introduction, growth, and persistence. These dynamics are further complicated by continuous exchange between sand and water habitats. Models of FIB and pathogen fate and transport at beaches can help predict the risk of infectious disease from beach use, but knowledge gaps with respect to decay and growth rates of pathogens in beach habitats impede robust modeling. Climatic variability adds further complexity to predictive modeling because extreme weather events, warming water, and sea level change may increase human exposure to waterborne pathogens and alter relationships between FIB and pathogens. In addition, population growth and urbanization will exacerbate contamination events and increase the potential for human exposure. The cumulative effects of anthropogenic changes will alter microbial population dynamics in beach habitats and the assumptions and relationships used in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and process-based models. Here, we review our current understanding of microbial populations and transport dynamics across the sand-water continuum at beaches, how these dynamics can be modeled, and how global change factors (e.g., climate and land use) should be integrated into more accurate beachscape-based models.

Identifying different types of flood-sensitive diarrheal diseases from 2006 to 2010 in Guangxi, China

Floods may influence different types of diarrheal diseases and epidemiological studies of pathogen-specific diarrhea due to floods in China are still needed. In addition, few studies have been conducted to quantify the lag and cumulative risk of diarrheal disease due to floods in Guangxi, China. Our study aimed to identify different types of diarrheal diseases that were sensitive to floods and to quantify their lag and cumulative impact. A matched analysis based on time series data of floods and infectious disease from 2006 to 2010 was conducted in Guangxi, China. Each flood day was treated as an independent unit in our study. A simplified assumption that each day of the flood confers the same risk was adopted before analysis. Each flood day was matched to a non-flood day by city and time. Log-linear mixed-effects regression models were used to quantify the association between different types of diarrheal diseases and floods. Lag and cumulative effects were also calculated to get delayed and overall effects. A total of 45,131 diarrhea cases were notified in the study area over the study period. After controlling for the long-term trend, seasonality, and meteorological factors, floods caused a significantly increased risk of total diarrheal diseases. The RR was highest at lag 2 days (RR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.11-1.40). Floods caused a significantly increased risk in bacillary dysentery and in other infectious diarrhea, but not in typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever. Floods were significantly associated with total diarrheal diseases and other infectious diarrhea for both cumulative lag 0-7 and 0-14 days. Our study provides strong evidence of a positive association between floods and diarrheal diseases including bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in study area. Public health interventions should be taken to prevent a potential risk of these flood-sensitive diarrheal diseases according to the different lag period after floods.

Temporal variability of parasites, bacterial indicators, and wastewater micropollutants in a water resource recovery facility under various weather conditions

Wastewater discharges lead to the deterioration of receiving waters through treated effluents and by-passes, combined and sanitary sewer overflows, and cross-connections to storm sewers. The influence of weather conditions on fecal indicator bacteria, pathogens and wastewater micropollutants on raw and treated sewage concentrations has not been extensively characterized. However, such data are needed to understand the effects of by-pass discharges and incomplete treatment on receiving waters. A water resource recovery facility was monitored for pathogenic parasites (Cryptosporidium oocysts, Giardia cysts), fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli, Clostridium perfringens), and wastewater micropollutants (caffeine, carbamazepine, 2-hydroxycarbamazepine, acesulfame, sucralose, and aspartame) during 6 events under different weather conditions (snowmelt and trace to 32 mm 2-day cumulative precipitation). Greater intra- and inter-event variability was observed for Giardia, E. coli and C. perfringens than for studied WWMPs. Even with the addition of inflow and infiltration, daily variations dominated concentration trends. Thus, afternoon and early evening were identified as critical times with regards to high concentrations and flows for potential by-pass discharges. Peak concentrations of Giardia were observed during the June wet weather event (1010 cysts/L), with the highest flowrates relative to the mean monthly flowrate. Overall, Giardia, E. coli and C. perfringens concentrations were positively correlated with flowrate (R > 0.32, p < 0.05). In raw sewage samples collected under high precipitation conditions, caffeine, carbamazepine and its metabolite 2-OH-carbamazepine were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with Giardia, E. coli, and C. perfringens demonstrating that they are useful markers for untreated sewage discharges. Data from the study are needed for estimating peak concentrations discharged from wastewater sources in relation to precipitation or snowmelt events.

Waterborne Diseases Arising From Climate Change

As a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, increased floods and droughts, change in climate will affect biological, physical, and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. Identifying the role of weather in waterborne infection is a priority public health research issue as climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature events. This chapter provides evidence that precipitation and temperature can affect directly or indirectly water quality and consequently affect the health human. This chapter also highlights the complex relationship between precipitation or temperature and transmission of waterborne disease such as diarrheal disease, gastroenteritis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, and cholera.

Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study

INTRODUCTION

The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study.

METHODS

A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for sub-national governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e.g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts.

RESULTS

Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e.g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a "health and climate change in all policies" approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 2: NUTRIENTS, ALGAL BLOOMS, SEDIMENT, PATHOGENS

In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many U.S. locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

Assessment on the burden of bacillary dysentery associated with floods during 2005-2009 in Zhengzhou City, China, using a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to quantify the impact of few times floods on bacillary dysentery in Zhengzhou during 2005-2009.

METHODS

The Spearman correlation test was applied first to examine the lagged effects of floods on monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery during 2005-2009 in Zhengzhou. We further quantified the effects of 7 flood events on the morbidity of bacillary dysentery using the time-series Poisson regression controlling for climatic factors, seasonality, gender and age groups. We estimated years lived with disability (YLDs) to estimate the burden of bacillary dysentery attributed to floods among different population groups.

RESULTS

A total of 15,841 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in the study region over the study period. The relative risks of floods on the morbidity of bacillary dysentery and attributable YLDs among the whole study population, males, females, below 14 years old group, 15-64 years old group, and over 65 years old group were 2.80, 3.13, 2.53, 2.75, 3.03, 2.48, and 1.206, 1.513, 0.913, 3.593, 0.638, 0.880, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings contribute to developing local strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods.

Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.

Hotspots and main drivers of fecal pollution in Neusiedler See, a large shallow lake in Central Europe

To minimize the risk of negative consequences for public health from fecal pollution in lakes, the continuous surveillance of microbiological water quality parameters, alongside other environmental variables, is necessary at defined bathing sites. Such routine surveillance may prove insufficient to elucidate the main drivers of fecal pollution in a complex lake/watershed ecosystem, and it may be that more comprehensive monitoring activities are required. In this study, the aims were to identify the hotspots and main driving factors of fecal pollution in a large shallow Central European lake, the Neusiedler See, and to determine to what degree its current monitoring network can be considered representative spatially. A stochastic and geostatistical analysis of a huge data set of water quality data (~ 164,000 data points, representing a 22-year time-series) of standard fecal indicator bacteria (SFIB), water quality and meteorological variables sampled at 26 sampling sites was conducted. It revealed that the hotspots of fecal pollution are exclusively related to sites with elevated anthropogenic activity. Background pollution from wildlife or diffuse agricultural run-off at more remote sites was comparatively low. The analysis also showed that variability in the incidence of SFIB was driven mainly by meteorological phenomena, above all, temperature, number of sunny hours, and wind (direction and speed). Due to antagonistic effects and temporal undersampling, the influence of precipitation on SFIB variance could not be clearly determined. Geostatistical analysis did reveal that the current spatial sampling density is insufficient to cover SFIB variance over the whole lake, and that the sites are therefore in the most part representative of local phenomena. Suggestions for the future monitoring and managing of fecal pollution are offered. The applied statistical approach may also serve as a model for the study of other such areas, and in general indicate a method for dealing with similarly large and spatiotemporally heterogeneous datasets.

Fecal source tracking and eDNA profiling in an urban creek following an extreme rain event

Fecal contamination of recreational waters (i.e. lakes, rivers, beaches) poses an on-going problem for environmental and public health. Heavy rainfall can exacerbate existing problems with fecal contamination. As there could be variable sources of fecal contamination, identifying the source is critical for remediation efforts. This study utilized microbial source tracking (MST), chemical source tracking (CST) markers and environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding to profile sampling areas and identify sources of fecal contamination in creek, stormwater outfall and beach sites in the Etobicoke Creek watershed (Toronto, ON). Water samples were collected before and immediately following an extreme rain event. MST and CST identified stormwater outfalls as an important source of human fecal contamination during dry and wet conditions. eDNA metabarcoding allowed for potential identification of additional sources of fecal contamination and provided additional evidence of human fecal contamination. The extreme rainfall event altered the eDNA profiles, causing creek and beach sites to reflect a greater diversity of mammal and bird eDNA sequences. The profiles provided by eDNA metabarcoding provide a proof of concept suggesting that eDNA metabarcoding can be a useful tool to complement MST and CST methods for profiling sources of fecal contamination and studying impacts of extreme rain events.

Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review

Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience.

High levels of sewage contamination released from urban areas after storm events: A quantitative survey with sewage specific bacterial indicators

BACKGROUND

Past studies have demonstrated an association between waterborne disease and heavy precipitation, and climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of these types of intense storm events in some parts of the United States. In this study, we examined the linkage between rainfall and sewage contamination of urban waterways and quantified the amount of sewage released from a major urban area under different hydrologic conditions to identify conditions that increase human risk of exposure to sewage.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Rain events and low-flow periods were intensively sampled to quantify loads of sewage based on two genetic markers for human-associated indicator bacteria (human Bacteroides and Lachnospiraceae). Samples were collected at a Lake Michigan estuary and at three river locations immediately upstream. Concentrations of indicators were analyzed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and loads were calculated from streamflow data collected at each location. Human-associated indicators were found during periods of low flow, and loads increased one to two orders of magnitude during rain events from stormwater discharges contaminated with sewage. Combined sewer overflow (CSO) events increased concentrations and loads of human-associated indicators an order of magnitude greater than heavy rainfall events without CSO influence. Human-associated indicator yields (load per km2 of land per day) were related to the degree of urbanization in each watershed. Contamination in surface waters were at levels above the acceptable risk for recreational use. Further, evidence of sewage exfiltration from pipes threatens drinking water distribution systems and source water. While this study clearly demonstrates widespread sewage contamination released from urban areas, a limitation of this study is understanding human exposure and illness rates, which are dependent on multiple factors, and gaps in our knowledge of the ultimate health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

With the prediction of more intense rain events in certain regions due to climate change, sewer overflows and contamination from failing sewer infrastructure may increase, resulting in increases in waterborne pathogen burdens in waterways. These findings quantify hazards in exposure pathways from rain events and illustrate the additional stress that climate change may have on urban water systems. This information could be used to prioritize efforts to invest in failing sewer infrastructure and create appropriate goals to address the health concerns posed by sewage contamination from urban areas.

Water Exclosure Treatment System (WETS): An innovative device for minimizing beach closures

A Water Exclosure Treatment System (WETS) is developed and installed to minimize the occurrence of beach closures due to algae and Escherchia coli (E. coli) in an inland lake. WETS consists of an "exclosure" sub-system with a five-sided polypropylene, barrier that excludes offshore lake contaminated water from the swimming area. Inside the exclosure, water is pumped to a portable filtration-ultraviolet treatment sub-system with three components. First, heavy debris like aquatic plants are removed through a strainer. Second, fine particles are removed through a sand filter and backwashing is automated through a program logic controller triggered by pressure sensor readings. Third, pathogens, algae, bacteria, and viruses are inactivated through ultraviolet (UV) disinfection. To determine sizing of sand filters and evaluation of efficiency of UV disinfection and aid in the design of the inlet and outlet locations for the pump system, computational fluid dynamics modeling with a Lagrangian particle-tracking method are employed. Flushing time is determined to range from 0.67 to 1.89days. Residence time maps reveal inlet and outlet locations play an important role in depicting the duration of particles within the swimming area. Comprehensive water quality sampling is conducted and analyzed with ANOVA testing reveal that water quality parameters inside the exclosure are significantly different than those outside. There have been no beach closures issued since deployment of WETS. Overall, WETS, an innovative Water Exclosure Treatment System, provides safe, clean water inside the exclosure for minimizing beach closure.

Sewage loading and microbial risk in urban waters of the Great Lakes

Despite modern sewer system infrastructure, the release of sewage from deteriorating pipes and sewer overflows is a major water pollution problem in US cities, particularly in coastal watersheds that are highly developed with large human populations. We quantified fecal pollution sources and loads entering Lake Michigan from a large watershed of mixed land use using host-associated indicators. Wastewater treatment plant influent had stable concentrations of human Bacteroides and human Lachnospiraceae with geometric mean concentrations of 2.77 × 10⁷ and 5.94 × 10⁷ copy number (by quantitative PCR) per 100 ml, respectively. Human-associated indicator levels were four orders of magnitude higher than norovirus concentrations, suggesting that these human-associated bacteria could be sensitive indicators of pathogen risk. Norovirus concentrations in these same samples were used in calculations for quantitative microbial risk assessment. Assuming a typical recreational exposure to untreated sewage in water, concentrations of 7,800 copy number of human Bacteroides per 100 mL or 14,000 copy number of human Lachnospiraceae per 100 mL corresponded to an illness risk of 0.03. These levels were exceeded in estuarine waters during storm events with greater than 5 cm of rainfall. Following overflows from combined sewer systems (which must accommodate both sewage and stormwater), concentrations were 10-fold higher than under rainfall conditions. Automated high frequency sampling allowed for loads of human-associated markers to be determined, which could then be related back to equivalent volumes of untreated sewage that were released. Evidence of sewage contamination decreased as ruminant-associated indicators increased approximately one day post-storm, demonstrating the delayed impact of upstream agricultural sources on the estuary. These results demonstrate that urban areas are a diffuse source of sewage contamination to urban waters and that storm-driven release of sewage, particularly when sewage overflows occur, creates a serious though transient human health risk.

Sanitary Sewer Overflows and Emergency Room Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness: Analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2006-2007

BACKGROUND

Sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) occur when untreated sewage is discharged into water sources before reaching the treatment facility, potentially contaminating the water source with gastrointestinal pathogens.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this paper is to assess associations between SSO events and rates of gastrointestinal (GI) illness in Massachusetts.

METHODS

A case-crossover study design was used to investigate association between SSO events and emergency room (ER) visits with a primary diagnosis of gastrointestinal (GI) illness in Massachusetts for 2006-2007. ER visits for GI were considered exposed if an SSO event occurred in the county of residence within three hazard periods, 0-4 d, 5-9 d, or 10-14 d, before the visit. A time-stratified bidirectional design was used to select control days for each ER visit on the same day of the week during the same month. Fixed effect logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of ER visits following the SSO event.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 270 SSO events for northeastern Massachusetts and 66,460 ER admissions with GI illness listed as the primary diagnostic code. The overall odds ratio (OR) for ER visits for GI illness was 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.16] in the 10-14 d period following an SSO event, with positive ORs for all age groups and for three of the four counties. The 0-4 d and 5-9 d periods following an SSO event were not associated with ER visits for GI illness overall, and associations by county or age were inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated an association between SSO events and ER visits for GI illness using a case-crossover study design. In light of the aging water infrastructure in the United States and the expected increase in heavy rainfall events, our findings suggest a potential health impact associated with sewage overflows. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2048.

Recent Advances in Substrate Identification of Protein Kinases in Plants and Their Role in Stress Management

Protein phosphorylation-dephosphorylation is a well-known regulatory mechanism in biological systems and has become one of the significant means of protein function regulation, modulating most of the biological processes. Protein kinases play vital role in numerous cellular processes. Kinases transduce external signal into responses such as growth, immunity and stress tolerance through phosphorylation of their target proteins. In order to understand these cellular processes at the molecular level, one needs to be aware of the different substrates targeted by protein kinases. Advancement in tools and techniques has bestowed practice of multiple approaches that enable target identification of kinases. However, so far none of the methodologies has been proved to be as good as a panacea for the substrate identification. In this review, the recent advances that have been made in the identifications of putative substrates and the implications of these kinases and their substrates in stress management are discussed.

The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012

Research shows potential effects of floods on intestinal infections. Baise, a city in Guangxi Province (China) had experienced several floods between 2004 and 2012 due to heavy and constant precipitation. This study aimed to examine the relationship between floods and the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Baise. A mixed generalized additive model and Spearman correlation were applied to analyze the relationship between monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery and 14 flood events with two severity levels. Data collected from 2004 to 2010 were utilized to estimate the parameters, whereas data from 2011 to 2012 were used to validate the model. There were in total 9255 cases of bacillary dysentery included in our analyses. According to the mixed generalized additive model, the relative risks (RR) of moderate and severe floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery were 1.40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16–1.69) and 1.78 (95% CI: 1.61–1.97), respectively. The regression analysis also indicated that the flood duration was negatively associated with the incidence of bacillary dysentery (with RR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.40–0.86). Therfore, this research suggests that floods exert a significant part in enhancing the risk of bacillary dysentery in Baise. Moreover, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than moderate floods. In addition, short-term floods may contribute more to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than a long-term flood. The findings from this research will provide more evidence to reduce health risks related to floods.

Investigation of fluorescence methods for rapid detection of municipal wastewater impact on drinking water sources

Fluorescence spectroscopy as a means to detect low levels of treated wastewater impact on two source waters was investigated using effluents from five wastewater facilities. To identify how best to interpret the fluorescence excitation-emission matrices (EEMs) for detecting the presence of wastewater, several feature selection and classification methods were compared. An expert supervised regional integration approach was used based on previously identified features which distinguish biologically processed organic matter including protein-like fluorescence and the ratio of protein to humic-like fluorescence. Use of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide-like (NADH) fluorescence was found to result in higher linear correlations for low levels of wastewater presence. Parallel factors analysis (PARAFAC) was also applied to contrast an unsupervised multiway approach to identify underlying fluorescing components. A humic-like component attributed to reduced semiquinone-like structures was found to best correlate with wastewater presence. These fluorescent features were used to classify, by volume, low (0.1-0.5%), medium (1-2%), and high (5-15%) levels by applying support vector machines (SVMs) and logistic regression. The ability of SVMs to utilize high-dimensional input data without prior feature selection was demonstrated through their performance when considering full unprocessed EEMs (66.7% accuracy). The observed high classification accuracies are encouraging when considering implementation of fluorescence spectroscopy as a water quality monitoring tool. Furthermore, the use of SVMs for classification of fluorescence data presents itself as a promising novel approach by directly utilizing the high-dimensional EEMs.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change: Impact and Implications

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China

Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/10⁵ and 0.127/10⁵ for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/10⁵ and 0.399/10⁵. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

Association between flood and the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Zibo City, China: a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study

This study examined the relationship between daily morbidity of bacillary dysentery and flood in 2007 in Zibo City, China, using a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) on the basis of multivariate model and stratified analysis at different lagged days were calculated to estimate the risk of flood on bacillary dysentery. A total of 902 notified bacillary dysentery cases were identified during the study period. The median of case distribution was 7-year-old and biased to children. Multivariable analysis showed that flood was associated with an increased risk of bacillary dysentery, with the largest OR of 1.849 (95 % CI 1.229-2.780) at 2-day lag. Gender-specific analysis showed that there was a significant association between flood and bacillary dysentery among males only (ORs >1 from lag 1 to lag 5), with the strongest lagged effect at 2-day lag (OR = 2.820, 95 % CI 1.629-4.881), and the result of age-specific indicated that youngsters had a slightly larger risk to develop flood-related bacillary dysentery than older people at one shorter lagged day (OR = 2.000, 95 % CI 1.128-3.546 in youngsters at lag 2; OR = 1.879, 95 % CI 1.069-3.305 in older people at lag 3). Our study has confirmed that there is a positive association between flood and the risk of bacillary dysentery in selected study area. Males and youngsters may be the vulnerable and high-risk populations to develop the flood-related bacillary dysentery. Results from this study will provide recommendations to make available strategies for government to deal with negative health outcomes due to floods.

Exposure science in an age of rapidly changing climate: challenges and opportunities

Climate change is anticipated to alter the production, use, release, and fate of environmental chemicals, likely leading to increased uncertainty in exposure and human health risk predictions. Exposure science provides a key connection between changes in climate and associated health outcomes. The theme of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science-Exposures in an Evolving Environment-brought this issue to the fore. By directing attention to questions that may affect society in profound ways, exposure scientists have an opportunity to conduct "consequential science"-doing science that matters, using our tools for the greater good and to answer key policy questions, and identifying causes leading to implementation of solutions. Understanding the implications of changing exposures on public health may be one of the most consequential areas of study in which exposure scientists could currently be engaged. In this paper, we use a series of case studies to identify exposure data gaps and research paths that will enable us to capture the information necessary for understanding climate change-related human exposures and consequent health impacts. We hope that paper will focus attention on under-developed areas of exposure science that will likely have broad implications for public health.

Increases in the mean and variability of thermal regimes result in differential phenotypic responses among genotypes during early ontogenetic stages of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens)

Climate change is affecting thermal conditions worldwide. Understanding organismal responses associated with predicted changes are essential for predicting population persistence. Few studies have examined the effects of both increased mean and variance in temperature on organismal traits, particularly during early life stages. Using lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) from Black Lake, MI, we tested whether phenotypic variation differed among families reared in two constant (10 and 18°C) and two fluctuating‐temperature treatments (10–19°C) representing temperatures experienced in the river and a simulated anthropogenic disturbance. Body length, body area, and yolk‐sac area were quantified at hatch. Family‐by‐treatment interactions explained up to 50% of the variance observed among families in offspring hatch traits. Families incubated in 18°C and the fluctuating anthropogenic treatment had 6–10 times higher variance in traits than those incubated at 10°C. Hatched larvae were placed in raceways with ambient river water. Emergence body length, emergence timing, and growth were quantified upon emergence. Families differed in time to emergence and growth with the greatest range observed in the 18°C treatment. Results demonstrate that differential responses among genotypes to changes in the mean and variability of thermal incubation regimes can affect traits at hatch as well as a subsequent ontogenetic stage.

Distributed lag effects and vulnerable groups of floods on bacillary dysentery in Huaihua, China

Understanding the potential links between floods and bacillary dysentery in China is important to develop appropriate intervention programs after floods. This study aimed to explore the distributed lag effects of floods on bacillary dysentery and to identify the vulnerable groups in Huaihua, China. Weekly number of bacillary dysentery cases from 2005–2011 were obtained during flood season. Flood data and meteorological data over the same period were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. To examine the distributed lag effects, a generalized linear mixed model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model were developed to assess the relationship between floods and bacillary dysentery. A total of 3,709 cases of bacillary dysentery were notified over the study period. The effects of floods on bacillary dysentery continued for approximately 3 weeks with a cumulative risk ratio equal to 1.52 (95% CI: 1.08–2.12). The risks of bacillary dysentery were higher in females, farmers and people aged 15–64 years old. This study suggests floods have increased the risk of bacillary dysentery with 3 weeks’ effects, especially for the vulnerable groups identified. Public health programs should be taken to prevent and control a potential risk of bacillary dysentery after floods.

Cumulative effects of fecal contamination from combined sewer overflows: Management for source water protection

The quality of a drinking water source depends largely on upstream contaminant discharges. Sewer overflows can have a large influence on downstream drinking water intakes as they discharge untreated or partially treated wastewaters that may be contaminated with pathogens. This study focuses on the quantification of Escherichia coli discharges from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and the dispersion and diffusion in receiving waters in order to prioritize actions for source water protection. E. coli concentrations from CSOs were estimated from monitoring data at a series of overflow structures and then applied to the 42 active overflow structures between 2009 and 2012 using a simple relationship based upon the population within the drainage network. From these estimates, a transport-dispersion model was calibrated with data from a monitoring program from both overflow structures and downstream drinking water intakes. The model was validated with 15 extreme events such as a large number of overflows (n > 8) or high concentrations at drinking water intakes. Model results demonstrated the importance of the cumulative effects of CSOs on the degradation of water quality downstream. However, permits are typically issued on a discharge point basis and do not consider cumulative effects. Source water protection plans must consider the cumulative effects of discharges and their concentrations because the simultaneous discharge of multiple overflows can lead to elevated E. coli concentrations at a drinking water intake. In addition, some CSOs have a disproportionate impact on peak concentrations at drinking water intakes. As such, it is recommended that the management of CSOs move away from frequency based permitting at the discharge point to focus on the development of comprehensive strategies to reduce cumulative and peak discharges from CSOs upstream of drinking water intakes.

Food and Waterborne Disease in the Greater New York City Area Following Hurricane Sandy in 2012

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate residence in evacuation areas (storm areas) as a risk factor for food and waterborne disease (FWBD) associated with Hurricane Sandy flooding.

METHODS

We captured 9601 incident outpatient and inpatient FWBD hospital discharge diagnoses for residents of the greater New York City area. We used Poisson or negative binomial regression models to compare the covariate-adjusted risk for a FWBD diagnosis, pre-Sandy (10/28-11/09, 2001-2011) vs. post-Sandy (10/28-11/09, 2012), for residents of "storm" and "non-storm" areas.

RESULTS

Outpatient FWBD risk was lower for storm area residents after Hurricane Sandy (risk ratio [RR]=0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.46-0.74), and varied by age, sex, and county. However, storm area residents 65 years of age or older experienced higher risk after Hurricane Sandy (RR=2.16, 95% CI: 1.11-4.19), albeit based on few cases. Inpatient FWBD risk was lower for non-storm area residents after Hurricane Sandy (RR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.95), and varied by age, race, and county, although there was no significant change for storm area residents (RR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.69-1.08). Those ≥65 years of age were also at lower risk for inpatient FWBD diagnosis, yet the effect was weaker for storm area (RR=0.89, 95% CI: 0.67-1.18) than for non-storm area residents (RR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.52-0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Hurricane preparation, mitigation, and response activities in the greater New York City area may have led to "protective" effects for FWBD. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:503-511).