Uncertainties in estimating SARS-CoV-2 prevalence by wastewater-based epidemiology

Key considerations for pathogen surveillance in wastewater

Wastewater surveillance (WWS) has received significant attention as a rapid, sensitive, and cost-effective tool for monitoring various pathogens in a community. WWS is employed to assess the spatial and temporal trends of diseases and identify their early appearances and reappearances, as well as to detect novel and mutated variants. However, the shedding rates of pathogens vary significantly depending on factors such as disease severity, the physiology of affected individuals, and the characteristics of pathogen. Furthermore, pathogens may exhibit differential fate and decay kinetics in the sewerage system. Variable shedding rates and decay kinetics may affect the detection of pathogens in wastewater. This may influence the interpretation of results and the conclusions of WWS studies. When selecting a pathogen for WWS, it is essential to consider it's specific characteristics. If data are not readily available, factors such as fate, decay, and shedding rates should be assessed before conducting surveillance. Alternatively, these factors can be compared to those of similar pathogens for which such data are available.

Cold-chain free nucleic acid preservation using porous super-absorbent polymer (PSAP) beads to facilitate wastewater surveillance

The instability of viral targets including SARS-CoV-2 in sewage is an important challenge in wastewater monitoring projects. The unrecognized interruptions in the 'cold-chain' transport from the sample collection to RNA quantification in the laboratory may undermine the accurate quantification of the virus. In this study, bovine serum albumin (BSA)-modified porous superabsorbent polymer (PSAP) beads were applied to absorb raw sewage samples as a simple method for viral RNA preservation. The preservation efficiency for SARS-CoV-2 and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA were examined during storage for 14 days at 4 °C or room temperature against the control (no beads applied). While a non-significant difference was observed at 4 °C (∼80 % retention for both control and PSAP-treated sewage), the reduction of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations was significantly lower in sewage retrieved from PSAP beads (25-40 % reduction) compared to control (>60 % reduction) at room temperature. On the other hand, the recovery of PMMoV, known for its high persistence in raw sewage, from PSAP beads or controls were consistently above 85 %, regardless of the storage temperature. Our results demonstrate the applicability of PSAP beads to wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) projects for preservation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in sewage, especially in remote settings with no refrigeration capabilities.

Assessment of crAssphage as a biological variable for SARS-CoV-2 data normalization in wastewater surveillance

AIMS

This study aimed to assess the use of cross-assembled phage (crAssphage) as an endogenous control employing a multivariate normalization analysis and its application as a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) data normalizer.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 188 twelve-hour composite raw sewage samples were obtained from eight wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) during a 1-year monitoring period. Employing the N1 and N2 target regions, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 94% (177) and 90% (170) of the samples, respectively, with a global median of 5 log10 genomic copies per liter (GC l-1). CrAssphage was detected in 100% of the samples, ranging from 8.29 to 10.43 log10 GC l-1, with a median of 9.46 ± 0.40 log10 GC l-1, presenting both spatial and temporal variabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Although SARS-CoV-2 data normalization employing crAssphage revealed a correlation with clinical cases occurring during the study period, crAssphage normalization by the flow per capita per day of each WWTP increased this correlation, corroborating the importance of normalizing wastewater surveillance data in disease trend monitoring.

Evaluating storage conditions and enhancement strategies on viral biomarker recovery for WBE applications

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a valuable disease surveillance tool. However, little is known on how factors such as transportation, storage, and wastewater characteristics influence the accuracy of the quantification methods. Hence, this study investigated the impact of storage temperatures and physicochemical characteristics of wastewater on SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A stability using droplet digital PCR. Additionally, strategies to enhance viral recovery were explored. Municipal influent wastewater stored between ±25 and -80 °C was assessed for a period of 84 days to determine viral degradation. Degradation up to 94.1% of influenza A and SARS-CoV-2 was observed in all samples with the highest at ±25 °C. Viral degradation was correlated to the changes in wastewater physicochemical characteristics. The low degradation observed of SARS-CoV-2 in the spiked pellets were indicative of viral adhesion to wastewater solids, which correlated with changes in pH. Ultrasonication frequencies ranging from 4 to 16 kHz, increased SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the supernatant between 3.30 and 35.65%, indicating viral RNA attachment to wastewater solids. These results highlight the importance of additional pretreatment methods for maximizing RNA recovery from wastewater samples. Based on these findings, it was deduced that wastewater preservation studies are essential, and pretreatment should be included in the WBE methodology.

Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence from wastewater

Wastewater based epidemiology has become a widely used tool for monitoring trends of concentrations of different pathogens, most notably and widespread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, in 2022, also in Rhineland-Palatinate, the Ministry of Science and Health has included 16 wastewater treatment sites in a surveillance program providing biweekly samples. However, the mere viral load data is subject to strong fluctuations and has limited value for political deciders on its own. Therefore, the state of Rhineland-Palatinate has commissioned the University Medical Center at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz to conduct a representative cohort study called SentiSurv, in which an increasing number of up to 12,000 participants have been using sensitive antigen self-tests once or twice a week to test themselves for SARS-CoV-2 and report their status. This puts the state of Rhineland-Palatinate in the fortunate position of having time series of both, the viral load in wastewater and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. Our main contribution is a calibration study based on the data from 2023-01-08 until 2023-10-01 where we identified a scaling factor ( 0.208 ± 0.031 ) and a delay ( 5.07 ± 2.30 days) between the virus load in wastewater, normalized by the pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), and the prevalence recorded in the SentiSurv study. The relation is established by fitting an epidemiological model to both time series. We show how that can be used to estimate the prevalence when the cohort data is no longer available and how to use it as a forecasting instrument several weeks ahead of time. We show that the calibration and forecasting quality and the resulting factors depend strongly on how wastewater samples are normalized.

ern: An [Formula: see text] package to estimate the effective reproduction number using clinical and wastewater surveillance data

The effective reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is an important epidemiological metric used to assess the state of an epidemic, as well as the effectiveness of public health interventions undertaken in response. When [Formula: see text] is above one, it indicates that new infections are increasing, and thus the epidemic is growing, while an [Formula: see text] is below one indicates that new infections are decreasing, and so the epidemic is under control. There are several established software packages that are readily available to statistically estimate [Formula: see text] using clinical surveillance data. However, there are comparatively few accessible tools for estimating [Formula: see text] from pathogen wastewater concentration, a surveillance data stream that cemented its utility during the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the [Formula: see text] package ern that aims to perform the estimation of the effective reproduction number from real-world wastewater or aggregated clinical surveillance data in a user-friendly way.

Combining wastewater surveillance and case data in estimating the time-varying effective reproduction number

Wastewater surveillance has been increasingly acknowledged as a useful tool for monitoring transmission dynamics of infections of public health concern, including the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). While a range of models have been proposed to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) utilizing clinical data, few have harnessed the viral concentration in wastewater samples to do so, leaving uncertainties about the potential precision gains with its use. In this study, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model which simultaneously reconstructed the latent infection trajectory and estimated Rt. Focusing on the 2022 and early 2023 COVID-19 transmission trends in Singapore, where mass community wastewater surveillance has become routine, we performed estimations using a spectrum of data sources, including reported case counts, hospital admissions, deaths, and wastewater viral loads. We further explored the performance of our wastewater model across various scenarios with different sampling strategies. The results showed consistent estimates derived from models employing diverse data streams, while models incorporating more wastewater samples exhibited greater uncertainty and variation in the inferred Rts. Additionally, our analysis revealed prominent day-of-the-week effect in reported case counts and substantial temporal variations in ascertainment rates. In response to these findings, we advocate for a hybrid approach leveraging both clinical and wastewater surveillance data to account for changes in case-ascertainment rates. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the possibility of reducing sampling frequency or sample size without compromising estimation accuracy for Rt, highlighting the potential for optimizing resource allocation in surveillance efforts while maintaining robust insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.

Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Italy: A Spatiotemporal Model

The study investigated the application of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) as a tool for monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a city in northern Italy from October 2021 to May 2023. Based on a previously used deterministic model, this study proposed a variation to account for the population characteristics and virus biodegradation in the sewer network. The model calculated virus loads and corresponding COVID-19 cases over time in different areas of the city and was validated using healthcare data while considering viral mutations, vaccinations, and testing variability. The correlation between the predicted and reported cases was high across the three waves that occurred during the period considered, demonstrating the ability of the model to predict the relevant fluctuations in the number of cases. The population characteristics did not substantially influence the predicted and reported infection rates. Conversely, biodegradation significantly reduced the virus load reaching the wastewater treatment plant, resulting in a 30% reduction in the total virus load produced in the study area. This approach can be applied to compare the virus load values across cities with different population demographics and sewer network structures, improving the comparability of the WBE data for effective surveillance and intervention strategies.

Hydrogeochemical characteristics, stable isotopes, positive matrix factorization, source apportionment, and health risk of high fluoride groundwater in semiarid region

Chronic exposure to high fluoride (F-) levels in groundwater causes community fluorosis and non-carcinogenic health concerns in local people. This study described occurrence, dental fluorosis, and origin of high F-groundwater using δ2H and δ18O isotopes at semiarid Gilgit, Pakistan. Therefore, groundwater (n = 85) was collected and analyzed for F- concentrations using ion-chromatography. The lowest F- concentration was 0.4 mg/L and the highest 6.8 mg/L. F- enrichment is linked with higher pH, NaHCO3, NaCl, δ18O, Na+, HCO3-, and depleted Ca+2 aquifers. The depleted δ2H and δ18O values indicated precipitation and higher values represented the evaporation effect. Thermodynamic considerations of fluorite minerals showed undersaturation, revealing that other F-bearing minerals viz. biotite and muscovite were essential in F- enrichment in groundwater. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) and principal component analysis multilinear regression (PCAMLR) models were used to determine four-factor solutions for groundwater contamination. The PMF model results were accurate and reliable compared with those of the PCAMLR model, which compiled the overlapping results. Therefore, 28.3% exceeded the WHO permissible limit of 1.5 mg/L F-. Photomicrographs of granite rocks showed enriched F-bearing minerals that trigger F- in groundwater. The community fluorosis index values were recorded at > 0.6, revealing community fluorosis and unsuitability of groundwater for drinking.

SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in the Czech Republic: Spatial and temporal differences in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations and relationship to clinical data and wastewater parameters

This study presents the results of systematic wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and basic wastewater parameters from four different wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the Czech Republic over the 2020-2022 epidemic. Two-step reverse-transcription quantitative PCR targeting genes encoding the N and Nsp12 proteins was employed to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA loading in 420 wastewater samples. The results obtained were used to evaluate the potential of wastewater analysis for describing the epidemiological situation in cities of different sizes and determining temporal differences based on the prevailing SARS-CoV-2 variant. Strong correlations between the number of active and hospitalised COVID-19 cases in each WWTP catchment area and the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in the wastewater clearly demonstrated the suitability of this wastewater-based epidemiological approach for WWTPs of different sizes and characteristics, despite differences in SARS-CoV-2 variant waves, with some WWTPs showing high predictive potential. This study demonstrated on the data from the Czech Republic that targeted systematic monitoring of wastewater provides sufficiently robust data for surveillance of viral loads in sample populations, and thus contributes to preventing the spread of infection and subsequent introduction of appropriate measures.

COVID-19 trends at the University of Tennessee: predictive insights from raw sewage SARS-CoV-2 detection and evaluation and PMMoV as an indicator for human waste

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has become a valuable tool for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses. However, concerns about effectiveness of raw sewage as a COVID-19 early warning system still exist, and it's not clear how useful normalization by simultaneous comparison of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) is in addressing variations resulting from fecal discharge dilution. This study aims to contribute insights into these aspects by conducting an academic-year field trial at the student residences on the University of Tennessee, Knoxville campus, raw sewage. This was done to investigate the correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load, both with and without PMMoV normalization, and various parameters, including active COVID-19 cases, self-isolations, and their combination among all student residents. Significant positive correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load a week prior, during the monitoring week, and the subsequent week with active cases. Despite these correlations, normalization by PMMoV does not enhance these associations. These findings suggest the potential utility of SARS-CoV-2 RNA load as an early warning indicator and provide valuable insights into the application and limitations of WBE for COVID-19 surveillance specifically within the context of raw sewage on university campuses.

Wastewater-based Epidemiology for COVID-19 Surveillance: A Survey

The pandemic of COVID-19 has imposed tremendous pressure on public health systems and social economic ecosystems over the past years. To alleviate its social impact, it is important to proactively track the prevalence of COVID-19 within communities. The traditional way to estimate the disease prevalence is to estimate from reported clinical test data or surveys. However, the coverage of clinical tests is often limited and the tests can be labor-intensive, requires reliable and timely results, and consistent diagnostic and reporting criteria. Recent studies revealed that patients who are diagnosed with COVID-19 often undergo fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 virus into wastewater, which makes wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for COVID-19 surveillance a promising approach to complement traditional clinical testing. In this paper, we survey the existing literature regarding WBE for COVID-19 surveillance and summarize the current advances in the area. Specifically, we have covered the key aspects of wastewater sampling, sample testing, and presented a comprehensive and organized summary of wastewater data analytical methods. Finally, we provide the open challenges on current wastewater-based COVID-19 surveillance studies, aiming to encourage new ideas to advance the development of effective wastewater-based surveillance systems for general infectious diseases.

AH, Fernandez S, Huang AT, Vatanaprasan P, Saethang T, Luk-in S, Storer RJ, Ounjai P, Devanga Ragupathi NK, Kanthawee P, Ngamwongsatit N, Badavath VN, Thuptimdang W, Leelahavanichkul A, Kanjanabuch T, Miyanaga K, Cui L, Nanbo A, Shibuya K, Kupwiwat R, Sano D, Furukawa T, Sei K, Higgins PG, Kicic A, Singer AC, Chatsuwan T, Trowsdale S, Abe S, Ishikawa H, Amarasiri M, Modchang C, Wannigama DL. Exploring indoor and outdoor dust as a potential tool for detection and monitoring of COVID-19 transmission

This study investigated the potential of using SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in dust as an additional surveillance tool for early detection and monitoring of COVID-19 transmission. Dust samples were collected from 8 public locations in 16 districts of Bangkok, Thailand, from June to August 2021. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in dust were quantified, and their correlation with community case incidence was assessed. Our findings revealed a positive correlation between viral concentrations detected in dust and the relative risk of COVID-19. The highest risk was observed with no delay (0-day lag), and this risk gradually decreased as the lag time increased. We observed an overall decline in viral concentrations in public places during lockdown, closely associated with reduced human mobility. The effective reproduction number for COVID-19 transmission remained above one throughout the study period, suggesting that transmission may persist in locations beyond public areas even after the lockdown measures were in place.

Results from the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system in Denmark, July 2021 to June 2022

The microbiological analysis of wastewater samples is increasingly used for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 globally. We described the setup process of the national SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system in Denmark, presented its main results during the first year of activities, from July 2021 to June 2022, and discussed their operational significance. The Danish SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system was designed to cover 85 % of the population in Denmark and it entailed taking three weekly samples from 230 sites. Samples were RT-qPCR tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, targeting the genetic markers N1, N2 and RdRp, and for two faecal indicators, Pepper Mild Mottle Virus and crAssphage. We calculated the weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in the wastewater from each sampling site and monitored it in view of the results from individual testing, at the national and regional levels. We attempted to use wastewater results to identify potential local outbreaks, and we sequenced positive wastewater samples using Nanopore sequencing to monitor the circulation of viral variants in Denmark. The system reached its full implementation by October 2021 and covered up to 86.4 % of the Danish population. The system allowed for monitoring of the national and regional trends of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Denmark. However, the system contribution to the identification of potential local outbreaks was limited by the extensive information available from clinical testing. The sequencing of wastewater samples identified relevant variants of concern, in line with results from sequencing of human samples. Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, Denmark implemented a nationwide SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system that integrated routine surveillance from individual testing. Today, while testing for COVID-19 at the community level has been discontinued, the system is on the frontline to monitor the occurrence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark.

Critical Needs for Integrated Surveillance: Wastewater-Based and Clinical Epidemiology in Evolving Scenarios with Lessons Learned from SARS-CoV-2

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) and clinical surveillance have been used as tools for analyzing the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the community, but both approaches can be strongly influenced by some sources of variability. From the challenging perspective of integrating environmental and clinical data, we performed a correlation analysis between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in raw sewage and incident COVID-19 cases in areas served by medium-size wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) from 2021 to 2023. To this aim, both datasets were adjusted for several sources of variability: WBE data were adjusted for factors including the analytical protocol, sewage flow, and population size, while clinical data adjustments considered the demographic composition of the served population. Then, we addressed the impact on the correlation of differences among sewerage networks and variations in the frequency and type of swab tests due to changes in political and regulatory scenarios. Wastewater and clinical data were significantly correlated when restrictive containment measures and limited movements were in effect (ρ = 0.50) and when COVID-19 cases were confirmed exclusively through molecular testing (ρ = 0.49). Moreover, a positive (although weak) correlation arose for WWTPs located in densely populated areas (ρ = 0.37) and with shorter sewerage lengths (ρ = 0.28). This study provides methodological approaches for interpreting WBE and clinical surveillance data, which could also be useful for other infections. Data adjustments and evaluation of possible sources of bias need to be carefully considered from the perspective of integrated environmental and clinical surveillance of infections.

Emerging trends in wastewater treatment: Addressing microorganic pollutants and environmental impacts

This review focuses on the challenges and advances associated with the treatment and management of microorganic pollutants, encompassing pesticides, industrial chemicals, and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment. The translocation of these contaminants across multiple media, particularly through atmospheric transport, emphasizes their pervasive nature and the subsequent ecological risks. The urgency to develop cost-effective remediation strategies for emerging organic contaminants is paramount. As such, wastewater-based epidemiology and the increasing concern over estrogenicity are explored. By incorporating conventional and innovative wastewater treatment techniques, this article highlights the integration of environmental management strategies, analytical methodologies, and the importance of renewable energy in waste treatment. The primary objective is to provide a comprehensive perspective on the current scenario, imminent threats, and future directions in mitigating the effects of these pollutants on the environment. Furthermore, the review underscores the need for international collaboration in developing standardized guidelines and policies for monitoring and controlling these microorganic pollutants. It advocates for increased investment in research and development of advanced materials and technologies that can efficiently remove or neutralize these contaminants, thereby safeguarding environmental health and promoting sustainable practice.

Changes to Public Health Surveillance Methods Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Public health surveillance plays a vital role in informing public health decision-making. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 caused a widespread shift in public health priorities. Global efforts focused on COVID-19 monitoring and contact tracing. Existing public health programs were interrupted due to physical distancing measures and reallocation of resources. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic intersected with advancements in technologies that have the potential to support public health surveillance efforts.

OBJECTIVE

This scoping review aims to explore emergent public health surveillance methods during the early COVID-19 pandemic to characterize the impact of the pandemic on surveillance methods.

METHODS

A scoping search was conducted in multiple databases and by scanning key government and public health organization websites from March 2020 to January 2022. Published papers and gray literature that described the application of new or revised approaches to public health surveillance were included. Papers that discussed the implications of novel public health surveillance approaches from ethical, legal, security, and equity perspectives were also included. The surveillance subject, method, location, and setting were extracted from each paper to identify trends in surveillance practices. Two public health epidemiologists were invited to provide their perspectives as peer reviewers.

RESULTS

Of the 14,238 unique papers, a total of 241 papers describing novel surveillance methods and changes to surveillance methods are included. Eighty papers were review papers and 161 were single studies. Overall, the literature heavily featured papers detailing surveillance of COVID-19 transmission (n=187). Surveillance of other infectious diseases was also described, including other pathogens (n=12). Other public health topics included vaccines (n=9), mental health (n=11), substance use (n=4), healthy nutrition (n=1), maternal and child health (n=3), antimicrobial resistance (n=2), and misinformation (n=6). The literature was dominated by applications of digital surveillance, for example, by using big data through mobility tracking and infodemiology (n=163). Wastewater surveillance was also heavily represented (n=48). Other papers described adaptations to programs or methods that existed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (n=9). The scoping search also found 109 papers that discuss the ethical, legal, security, and equity implications of emerging surveillance methods. The peer reviewer public health epidemiologists noted that additional changes likely exist, beyond what has been reported and available for evidence syntheses.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated advancements in surveillance and the adoption of new technologies, especially for digital and wastewater surveillance methods. Given the investments in these systems, further applications for public health surveillance are likely. The literature for surveillance methods was dominated by surveillance of infectious diseases, particularly COVID-19. A substantial amount of literature on the ethical, legal, security, and equity implications of these emerging surveillance methods also points to a need for cautious consideration of potential harm.

Optimal Selection of Sampling Points within Sewer Networks for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology Applications

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has great potential to monitor community public health, especially during pandemics. However, it faces substantial hurdles in pathogen surveillance through WBE, encompassing data representativeness, spatiotemporal variability, population estimates, pathogen decay, and environmental factors. This paper aims to enhance the reliability of WBE data, especially for early outbreak detection and improved sampling strategies within sewer networks. The tool implemented in this paper combines a monitoring model and an optimization model to facilitate the optimal selection of sampling points within sewer networks. The monitoring model utilizes parameters such as feces density and average water consumption to define the detectability of the virus that needs to be monitored. This allows for standardization and simplicity in the process of moving from the analysis of wastewater samples to the identification of infection in the source area. The entropy-based model can select optimal sampling points in a sewer network to obtain the most specific information at a minimum cost. The practicality of our tool is validated using data from Hildesheim, Germany, employing SARS-CoV-2 as a pilot pathogen. It is important to note that the tool's versatility empowers its extension to monitor other pathogens in the future.

A comprehensive, open-source data model for wastewater-based epidemiology

The recent SARS-COV-2 pandemic has sparked the adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a low-cost way to monitor the health of populations. In parallel, the pandemic has encouraged researchers to openly share their data to serve the public better and accelerate science. However, environmental surveillance data are highly dependent on context and are difficult to interpret meaningfully across sites. This paper presents the second iteration of the Public Health Environmental Surveillance Open Data Model (PHES-ODM), an open-source dictionary and set of data tools to enhance the interoperability of environmental surveillance data and enable the storage of contextual (meta)data. The data model describes how to store environmental surveillance program data, metadata about measurements taken on various specimens (water, air, surfaces, sites, populations) and data about measurement protocols. The model provides software tools that support the collection and use of PHES-ODM formatted data, including performing PCR calculations and data validation, recording data into input templates, generating wide tables for analysis, and producing SQL database definitions. Fully open-source and already adopted by institutions in Canada, the European Union, and other countries, the PHES-ODM provides a path forward for creating robust, interoperable, open datasets for environmental public health surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and beyond.

Simultaneous detection and quantification of multiple pathogen targets in wastewater

Wastewater-based epidemiology has emerged as a critical tool for public health surveillance, building on decades of environmental surveillance work for pathogens such as poliovirus. Work to date has been limited to monitoring a single pathogen or small numbers of pathogens in targeted studies; however, few studies consider simultaneous quantitative analysis of a wide variety of pathogens, which could greatly increase the utility of wastewater surveillance. We developed a novel quantitative multi-pathogen surveillance approach (35 pathogen targets including bacteria, viruses, protozoa, and helminths) using TaqMan Array Cards (TAC) and applied the method on concentrated wastewater samples collected at four wastewater treatment plants in Atlanta, GA from February to October of 2020. From sewersheds serving approximately 2 million people, we detected a wide range of targets including many we expected to find in wastewater (e.g., enterotoxigenic E. coli and Giardia in 97% of 29 samples at stable concentrations) as well as unexpected targets including Strongyloides stercoralis (a human threadworm rarely observed in the USA). Other notable detections included SARS-CoV-2, but also several pathogen targets that are not commonly included in wastewater surveillance like Acanthamoeba spp., Balantidium coli, Entamoeba histolytica, astrovirus, norovirus, and sapovirus. Our data suggest broad utility in expanding the scope of enteric pathogen surveillance in wastewaters, with potential for application in a variety of settings where pathogen quantification in fecal waste streams can inform public health surveillance and selection of control measures to limit infections.

A phenomenological neural network powered by the National Wastewater Surveillance System for estimation of silent COVID-19 infections

Although wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as an inexpensive and non-intrusive method in contrast to clinical testing to track public health at community levels, there is a lack of structured interpretative criteria to translate the SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater to COVID-19 infection cases. The difficulties lie in the uncertainties of the amount of virus shed by an infected individual to wastewater as documented in clinical studies. This situation is even worse considering the existence of a population of silent infections and many other confounding factors. In this research, a quantitative framework of a phenomenological neural network (PNN) was developed to compute silent infections. The PNN was trained using the WBE data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) - a program launched by the CDC of the United States in 2020. It is found that the PNN excelled with superior interpretability and reduced overfitting. A big-data perspective on virus shedding by an infected population revealed more deterministic virus-shedding dynamics compared to the clinical studies perspective on virus shedding by an infected individual. With such characteristics employed as the theoretical basis for the estimation of the silent infections, a ratio of silent to reported infections was found to be 5.7 as the national median during the studied period. The study also noted the influence of temperature, sewershed population, and per-capita flow rates on the computation of silent infections. It is expected that the proposed framework in this work would facilitate public health actions guided by the SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater. In case of a new wave emergence or a new virus disease outbreak like COVID-19, the PNN powered by the NWSS would outline consolidated and systematic information that would enable rapid deployment of public health actions.

Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota

The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in December 2019, which prompted many researchers to investigate how the virus spreads. SARS-CoV-2 is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets. Symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus appear after an incubation period. Moreover, the asymptomatic infected individuals unknowingly spread the virus. Detecting infected people requires daily tests and contact tracing, which are expensive. The early detection of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, can be achieved with wastewater-based epidemiology, which is timely and cost-effective. In this study, we collected wastewater samples from wastewater treatment plants in several cities in North Dakota and then extracted viral RNA copies. We used log-RNA copies in the model to predict the number of infected cases using Quantile Regression (QR) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) Regression. The model's performance was evaluated by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The QR model performs well in cities where the population is >10000 . In addition, the model predictions were compared with the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model which is the golden standard model for infectious diseases.

Time series modelling for wastewater-based epidemiology of COVID-19: A nationwide study in 40 wastewater treatment plants of Belgium, February 2021 to June 2022

BACKGROUND

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been implemented to monitor surges of COVID-19. Yet, multiple factors impede the usefulness of WBE and quantitative adjustment may be required.

AIM

We aimed to model the relationship between WBE data and incident COVID-19 cases, while adjusting for confounders and autocorrelation.

METHODS

This nationwide WBE study includes data from 40 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Belgium (02/2021-06/2022). We applied ARIMA-based modelling to assess the effect of daily flow rate, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) concentration, a measure of human faeces in wastewater, and variants (alpha, delta, and omicron strains) on SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater. Secondly, adjusted WBE metrics at different lag times were used to predict incident COVID-19 cases. Model selection was based on AICc minimization.

RESULTS

In 33/40 WWTPs, RNA levels were best explained by incident cases, flow rate, and PMMoV. Flow rate and PMMoV were associated with -13.0 % (95 % prediction interval: -26.1 to +0.2 %) and +13.0 % (95 % prediction interval: +5.1 to +21.0 %) change in RNA levels per SD increase, respectively. In 38/40 WWTPs, variants did not explain variability in RNA levels independent of cases. Furthermore, our study shows that RNA levels can lead incident cases by at least one week in 15/40 WWTPs. The median population size of leading WWTPs was 85.1 % larger than that of non‑leading WWTPs. In 17/40 WWTPs, however, RNA levels did not lead or explain incident cases in addition to autocorrelation.

CONCLUSION

This study provides quantitative insights into key determinants of WBE, including the effects of wastewater flow rate, PMMoV, and variants. Substantial inter-WWTP variability was observed in terms of explaining incident cases. These findings are of practical importance to WBE practitioners and show that the early-warning potential of WBE is WWTP-specific and needs validation.

Evaluation of wastewater-based epidemiology of COVID-19 approaches in Singapore's 'closed-system' scenario: A long-term country-wide assessment

With the COVID-19 pandemic the use of WBE to track diseases spread has rapidly evolved into a widely applied strategy worldwide. However, many of the current studies lack the necessary systematic approach and supporting quality of epidemiological data to fully evaluate the effectiveness and usefulness of such methods. Use of WBE in a very low disease prevalence setting and for long-term monitoring has yet to be validated and it is critical for its intended use as an early warning system. In this study we seek to evaluate the sensitivity of WBE approaches under low prevalence of disease and ability to provide early warning. Two monitoring scenarios were used: (i) city wide monitoring (population 5,700,000) and (ii) community/localized monitoring (population 24,000 to 240,000). Prediction of active cases by WBE using multiple linear regression shows that a multiplexed qPCR approach with three gene targets has a significant advantage over single-gene monitoring approaches, with R2 = 0.832 (RMSE 0.053) for an analysis using N, ORF1ab and S genes (R2 = 0.677 to 0.793 for single gene strategies). A predicted disease prevalence of 0.001% (1 in 100,000) for a city-wide monitoring was estimated by the multiplexed RT-qPCR approach and was corroborated by epidemiological data evidence in three 'waves'. Localized monitoring setting shows an estimated detectable disease prevalence of ∼0.002% (1 in 56,000) and is supported by the geospatial distribution of active cases and local population dynamics data. Data analysis also shows that this approach has a limitation in sensitivity, or hit rate, of 62.5 % and an associated high miss rate (false negative rate) of 37.5 % when compared to available epidemiological data. Nevertheless, our study shows that, with enough sampling resolution, WBE at a community level can achieve high precision and accuracies for case detection (96 % and 95 %, respectively) with low false omission rate (4.5 %) even at low disease prevalence levels.

Predictive potential of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 clinical outcomes and infections

Coronavirus disease 2019 - caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) -, has triggered a worldwide pandemic resulting in 665 million infections and over 6.5 million deaths as of December 15, 2022. The development of different epidemiological tools have helped predict new outbreaks and assess the behavior of clinical variables in different health contexts. In this study, we aimed to monitor concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater as a tool to predict the progression of clinical variables during Waves 3, 5, and 6 of the pandemic in the Spanish city of Xátiva from September 2020 to March 2022. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in 195 wastewater samples using the RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel validated by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We also compared the trends of several clinical variables (14-day cumulative incidence, positive cases, hospital cases and stays, critical cases and stays, primary care visits, and deaths) for each study wave against wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations using Pearson's product-moment correlations, a two-sided Mann-Whitney U test, and a cross-correlation analysis. We found strong correlations between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations with 14-day cumulative incidence and positive cases over time. Wastewater RNA concentrations showed strong correlations with these variables one and two weeks in advance. There were significant correlations with hospitalizations and critical care during Wave 3 and Wave 6; cross-correlations were stronger for hospitalization stays one week before during Wave 6. No association between vaccination percentages and wastewater viral concentrations was observed. Our findings support wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations as a potential surveillance tool to anticipate infection and epidemiological data such as 14-day cumulative incidence, hospitalizations, and critical care stays. Public health authorities could use this epidemiological tool on a similar population as an aid for health care decision-making during an epidemic outbreak.

Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022

Analysis of wastewater is used in many settings for surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, but it remains unclear how well wastewater testing results reflect incidence. Denmark has had an extensive wastewater analysis system that conducts 3 weekly tests in ≈200 sites and has 85% population coverage; the country also offers free SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests to all residents. Using time series analysis for modeling, we found that wastewater data, combined with information on circulating variants and the number of human tests performed, closely fitted the incidence curve of persons testing positive. The results were consistent at a regional level and among a subpopulation of frequently tested healthcare personnel. We used wastewater analysis data to estimate incidence after testing was reduced to a minimum after March 2022. These results imply that data from a large-scale wastewater surveillance system can serve as a good proxy for COVID-19 incidence and for epidemic control.

Wastewater-based epidemiology predicts COVID-19-induced weekly new hospital admissions in over 150 USA counties

Although the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emergency status is easing, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect healthcare systems globally. It is crucial to have a reliable and population-wide prediction tool for estimating COVID-19-induced hospital admissions. We evaluated the feasibility of using wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to predict COVID-19-induced weekly new hospitalizations in 159 counties across 45 states in the United States of America (USA), covering a population of nearly 100 million. Using county-level weekly wastewater surveillance data (over 20 months), WBE-based models were established through the random forest algorithm. WBE-based models accurately predicted the county-level weekly new admissions, allowing a preparation window of 1-4 weeks. In real applications, periodically updated WBE-based models showed good accuracy and transferability, with mean absolute error within 4-6 patients/100k population for upcoming weekly new hospitalization numbers. Our study demonstrated the potential of using WBE as an effective method to provide early warnings for healthcare systems.

M. AH, Fernandez S, Huang AT, Vatanaprasan P, Jay DJ, Saethang T, Luk-in S, Storer RJ, Ounjai P, Devanga Ragupathi NK, Kanthawee P, Sano D, Furukawa T, Sei K, Leelahavanichkul A, Kanjanabuch T, Hirankarn N, Higgins PG, Kicic A, Singer AC, Chatsuwan T, Trowsdale S, Abe S, McLellan AD, Ishikawa H. COVID-19 monitoring with sparse sampling of sewered and non-sewered wastewater in urban and rural communities

Equitable SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in low-resource communities lacking centralized sewers is critical as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) progresses. However, large-scale studies on SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater from low-and middle-income countries is limited because of economic and technical reasons. In this study, wastewater samples were collected twice a month from 186 urban and rural subdistricts in nine provinces of Thailand mostly having decentralized and non-sewered sanitation infrastructure and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA variants using allele-specific RT-qPCR. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration was used to estimate the real-time incidence and time-varying effective reproduction number (Re). Results showed an increase in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater from urban and rural areas 14-20 days earlier than infected individuals were officially reported. It also showed that community/food markets were "hot spots" for infected people. This approach offers an opportunity for early detection of transmission surges, allowing preparedness and potentially mitigating significant outbreaks at both spatial and temporal scales.

Recent progress on wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance: A systematic review of analytical procedures and epidemiological modeling

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), whose causative agent is the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a pandemic. This virus is predominantly transmitted via respiratory droplets and shed via sputum, saliva, urine, and stool. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been able to monitor the circulation of viral pathogens in the population. This tool demands both in-lab and computational work to be meaningful for, among other purposes, the prediction of outbreaks. In this context, we present a systematic review that organizes and discusses laboratory procedures for SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantification from a wastewater matrix, along with modeling techniques applied to the development of WBE for COVID-19 surveillance. The goal of this review is to present the current panorama of WBE operational aspects as well as to identify current challenges related to it. Our review was conducted in a reproducible manner by following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for systematic reviews. We identified a lack of standardization in wastewater analytical procedures. Regardless, the reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) approach was the most reported technique employed to detect and quantify viral RNA in wastewater samples. As a more convenient sample matrix, we suggest the solid portion of wastewater to be considered in future investigations due to its higher viral load compared to the liquid fraction. Regarding the epidemiological modeling, the data-driven approach was consistently used for the prediction of variables associated with outbreaks. Future efforts should also be directed toward the development of rapid, more economical, portable, and accurate detection devices.

SARS-CoV-2 detection and inactivation in water and wastewater: Review on analytical methods, limitations and future research recommendations

AbstractSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been detected in wastewater. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a practical and cost-effective tool for the assessment and controlling of pandemics and probably for examining SARS-CoV-2 presence. Implementation of WBE during the outbreaks is not without limitations. Temperature, suspended solids, pH, and disinfectants affect the stability of viruses in wastewater. Due to these limitations, instruments and techniques have been utilized to detect SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in sewage using various concentration methods and computer-aided analyzes. RT-qPCR, ddRT-PCR, multiplex PCR, RT-LAMP, and electrochemical immunosensors have been employed to detect low levels of viral contamination. Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 is a crucial preventive measure against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To better assess the role of wastewater as a transmission route, detection, and quantification methods need to be refined. In this paper, the latest improvements in quantification, detection, and inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater are explained. Finally, limitations and future research recommendations are thoroughly described.

Moving forward with COVID-19: Future research prospects of wastewater-based epidemiology methodologies and applications

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been demonstrated for its great potential in tracking of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission among populations despite some inherent methodological limitations. These include non-optimized sampling approaches and analytical methods; stability of viruses in sewer systems; partitioning/retention in biofilms; and the singular and inaccurate back-calculation step to predict the number of infected individuals in the community. Future research is expected to (1) standardize best practices in wastewater sampling, analysis and data reporting protocols for the sensitive and reproducible detection of viruses in wastewater; (2) understand the in-sewer viral stability and partitioning under the impacts of dynamic wastewater flow, properties, chemicals, biofilms and sediments; and (3) achieve smart wastewater surveillance with artificial intelligence and big data models. Further specific research is essential in the monitoring of other viral pathogens with pandemic potential and subcatchment applications to maximize the benefits of WBE beyond COVID-19.

Prediction of hospitalisations based on wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology is widely applied in Austria since April 2020 to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. With a steadily increasing number of monitored wastewater facilities, 123 plants covering roughly 70 % of the 9 million population were monitored as of August 2022. In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in raw sewage were analysed to infer short-term hospitalisation occupancy. The temporal lead of wastewater-based epidemiological time series over hospitalisation occupancy levels facilitates the construction of forecast models. Data pre-processing techniques are presented, including the approach of comparing multiple decentralised wastewater signals with aggregated and centralised clinical data. Time‑lead quantification was performed using cross-correlation analysis and coefficient of determination optimisation approaches. Multivariate regression models were successfully applied to infer hospitalisation bed occupancy. The results show a predictive potential of viral loads in sewage towards Covid-19 hospitalisation occupancy, with an average lead time towards ICU and non-ICU bed occupancy between 14.8-17.7 days and 8.6-11.6 days, respectively. The presented procedure provides access to the trend and tipping point behaviour of pandemic dynamics and allows the prediction of short-term demand for public health services. The results showed an increase in forecast accuracy with an increase in the number of monitored wastewater treatment plants. Trained models are sensitive to changing variant types and require recalibration of model parameters, likely caused by immunity by vaccination and/or infection. The utilised approach displays a practical and rapidly implementable application of wastewater-based epidemiology to infer hospitalisation occupancy.

Dynamic population normalisation in wastewater-based epidemiology for improved understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence: a multi-site study

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a valuable tool for monitoring the circulation of COVID-19. However, while variations in population size are recognised as major sources of uncertainty, wastewater SARS-CoV-2 measurements are not routinely population-normalised. This paper aims to determine whether dynamic population normalisation significantly alters SARS-CoV-2 dynamics observed through wastewater monitoring, and whether it is beneficial or necessary to provide an understanding of COVID-19 epidemiology. Data from 394 sites in England are used, and normalisation is implemented based on ammoniacal nitrogen and orthophosphate concentrations. Raw and normalised wastewater SARS-CoV-2 metrics are evaluated at the site and spatially aggregated levels are compared against indicators of prevalence based on the Coronavirus Infection Survey and Test and Trace polymerase chain reaction test results. Normalisation is shown, on average, to have a limited impact on overall temporal trends. However, significant variability in the degree to which it affects local-level trends is observed. This is not evident from previous WBE studies focused on single sites and, critically, demonstrates that while the impact of normalisation on SARS-CoV-2 trends is small on average, this may not always be the case. When averaged across many sites, normalisation strengthens the correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 data and prevalence indicators; however, confidence in the improvement is low.

Enteric pathogen reduction targets for onsite non-potable water systems: A critical evaluation

Onsite non-potable water systems (ONWS) collect and treat local source waters for non-potable end uses such as toilet flushing and irrigation. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been used to set pathogen log10-reduction targets (LRTs) for ONWS to achieve the risk benchmark of 10-4 infections per person per year (ppy) in a series of two efforts completed in 2017 and 2021. In this work, we compare and synthesize the ONWS LRT efforts to inform the selection of pathogen LRTs. For onsite wastewater, greywater, and stormwater, LRTs for human enteric viruses and parasitic protozoa were within 1.5-log10 units between 2017 and 2021 efforts, despite differences in approaches used to characterize pathogens in these waters. For onsite wastewater and greywater, the 2017 effort used an epidemiology-based model to simulate pathogen concentrations contributed exclusively from onsite waste and selected Norovirus as the viral reference pathogen; the 2021 effort used municipal wastewater pathogen data and cultivable adenoviruses as the reference viral pathogen. Across source waters, the greatest differences occurred for viruses in stormwater, given the newly available municipal wastewater characterizations used for modeling sewage contributions in 2021 and the different selection of reference pathogens (Norovirus vs. adenoviruses). The roof runoff LRTs support the need for protozoa treatment, but these remain difficult to characterize due to the pathogen variability in roof runoff across space and time. The comparison highlights adaptability of the risk-based approach, allowing for updated LRTs as site specific or improved information becomes available. Future research efforts should focus on data collection of onsite water sources.

In-sewer decay and partitioning of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli and implications for their wastewater surveillance

Campylobacter jejuni and coli are two main pathogenic species inducing diarrhoeal diseases in humans, which are responsible for the loss of 33 million lives each year. Current Campylobacter infections are mainly monitored by clinical surveillance which is often limited to individuals seeking treatment, resulting in under-reporting of disease prevalence and untimely indicators of community outbreaks. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been developed and employed for the wastewater surveillance of pathogenic viruses and bacteria. Monitoring the temporal changes of pathogen concentration in wastewater allows the early detection of disease outbreaks in a community. However, studies investigating the WBE back-estimation of Campylobacter spp. are rare. Essential factors including the analytical recovery efficiency, the decay rate, the effect of in-sewer transport, and the correlation between the wastewater concentration and the infections in communities are lacking to support wastewater surveillance. This study carried out experiments to investigate the recovery of Campylobacter jejuni and coli from wastewater and the decay under different simulated sewer reactor conditions. It was found that the recovery of Campylobacter spp. from wastewater varied with their concentrations in wastewater and depended on the detection limit of quantification methods. The concentration reduction of Campylobacter. jejuni and coli in sewers followed a two-phase reduction model, and the faster concentration reduction during the first phase is mainly due to their partitioning onto sewer biofilms. The total decay of Campylobacter. jejuni and coli varied in different types of sewer reactors, i.e. rising main vs. gravity sewer. In addition, the sensitivity analysis for WBE back-estimation of Campylobacter suggested that the first-phase decay rate constant (k₁) and the turning time point (t₁) are determining factors and their impacts increased with the hydraulic retention time of wastewater.

Degradation rates influence the ability of composite samples to represent 24-hourly means of SARS-CoV-2 and other microbiological target measures in wastewater

The utility of using severe-acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA for assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 within communities begins with the design of the sample collection program. The objective of this study was to assess the utility of 24-hour composites as representative samples for measuring multiple microbiological targets in wastewater, and whether normalization of SARS-CoV-2 by endogenous targets can be used to decrease hour to hour variability at different watershed scales. Two sets of experiments were conducted, in tandem with the same wastewater, with samples collected at the building, cluster, and community sewershed scales. The first set of experiments focused on evaluating degradation of microbiological targets: SARS-CoV-2, Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) - a surrogate spiked into the wastewater, plus human waste indicators of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV), Beta-2 microglobulin (B2M), and fecal coliform bacteria (FC). The second focused on the variability of these targets from samples, collected each hour on the hour. Results show that SARS-CoV-2, PMMoV, and B2M were relatively stable, with minimal degradation over 24-h. SIV, which was spiked-in prior to analysis, degraded significantly and FC increased significantly over the course of 24 h, emphasizing the possibility for decay and growth within wastewater. Hour-to-hour variability of the source wastewater was large between each hour of sampling relative to the variability of the SARS-CoV-2 levels calculated between sewershed scales; thus, differences in SARS-CoV-2 hourly variability were not statistically significant between sewershed scales. Results further provided that the quantified representativeness of 24-h composite samples (i.e., statistical equivalency compared against hourly collected grabs) was dependent upon the molecular target measured. Overall, improvements made by normalization were minimal within this study. Degradation and multiplication for other targets should be evaluated when deciding upon whether to collect composite or grab samples in future studies.

Wastewater-based epidemiology for preventing outbreaks and epidemics in Latin America - Lessons from the past and a look to the future

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an approach with the potential to complement clinical surveillance systems. Using WBE, it is possible to carry out an early warning of a possible outbreak, monitor spatial and temporal trends of infectious diseases, produce real-time results and generate representative epidemiological information in a territory, especially in areas of social vulnerability. Despite the historical uses of this approach, particularly in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, and for other pathogens, it was during the COVID-19 pandemic that occurred an exponential increase in environmental surveillance programs for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, with many experiences and developments in the field of public health using data for decision making and prioritizing actions to control the pandemic. In Latin America, WBE was applied in heterogeneous contexts and with emphasis on populations that present many socio-environmental inequalities, a condition shared by all Latin American countries. This manuscript addresses the concepts and applications of WBE in public health actions, as well as different experiences in Latin American countries, and discusses a model to implement this surveillance system at the local or national level. We emphasize the need to implement this sentinel surveillance system in countries that want to detect the early entry and spread of new pathogens and monitor outbreaks or epidemics of infectious agents in their territories as a complement of public health surveillance systems.

Knowledge graph of wastewater-based epidemiology development: A data-driven analysis based on research topics and trends

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has contributed significantly to the monitoring of drug use and transmission of viruses that has been published in numerous research papers. In this paper, we used LitStraw, a self-developed text extraction tool, to extract, analyze, and construct knowledge graphs from nearly 900 related papers in PDF format collected in Web of Science from 2000 to 2021 to analyze the research hotspots and development trends of WBE. The results showed a growing number of WBE publications in multidisciplinary cross-collaboration, with more publications and close collaboration between the USA, Australia, China, and European countries. The keywords of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals still maintain research hotness, but the specific research hotspots change significantly, among which the research hotspots of new psychoactive substances, biomarkers, and stability show an increasing trend. In addition, judging the spread of COVID-19 by the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in sewage has become the focus since 2020. This work can show the development of WBE more clearly by constructing a knowledge graph and also provide new ideas for the paper mining analysis methods in different fields.

Model training periods impact estimation of COVID-19 incidence from wastewater viral loads

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been deployed broadly as an early warning tool for emerging COVID-19 outbreaks. WBE can inform targeted interventions and identify communities with high transmission, enabling quick and effective responses. As the wastewater (WW) becomes an increasingly important indicator for COVID-19 transmission, more robust methods and metrics are needed to guide public health decision-making. This research aimed to develop and implement a mathematical framework to infer incident cases of COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2 levels measured in WW. We propose a classification scheme to assess the adequacy of model training periods based on clinical testing rates and assess the sensitivity of model predictions to training periods. A testing period is classified as adequate when the rate of change in testing is greater than the rate of change in cases. We present a Bayesian deconvolution and linear regression model to estimate COVID-19 cases from WW data. The effective reproductive number is estimated from reconstructed cases using WW. The proposed modeling framework was applied to three Northern California communities served by distinct WW treatment plants. The results showed that training periods with adequate testing are essential to provide accurate projections of COVID-19 incidence.

Wastewater-based epidemiology approach: The learning lessons from COVID-19 pandemic and the development of novel guidelines for future pandemics

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) provides a comprehensive real-time framework of population attitude and health status. This approach is attracting the interest of medical community and health authorities to monitor the prevalence of a virus (such as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, SARS-CoV-2) among a community. Indeed, WBE is currently fine-tuning as environmental surveillance tool for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. After a bibliometric analysis conducted to discover the research trends in WBE field, this work aimed to side-by-side compare the conventional method based on clinical testing with WBE approach. Furthermore, novel guidelines were developed to apply the WBE approach to a pandemic. The growing interest on WBE approach for COVID-19 pandemic is demonstrated by looking at the sharp increase in scientific papers published in the last years and at the ongoing studies on viral quantification methods and analytical procedures. The side-by-side comparison highlighted the ability of WBE to identify the hot-spot areas faster than the conventional approach, reducing the costs (e.g., rational use of available resources) and the gatherings at medical centers. Contrary to clinical testing, WBE has the surveillance capacity for preventing the virus resurgence, including asymptomatic contribution, and ensuring the preservation of medical staff health by avoiding the exposure to the virus infection during clinical testing. As extensively reported, the time in collecting epidemiological data is crucial for establishing the prevention and mitigation measures that are essential for curbing a pandemic. The developed guidelines can help to build a WBE system useful to control any future pandemic.

Regional and temporal differences in the relation between SARS-CoV-2 biomarkers in wastewater and estimated infection prevalence - Insights from long-term surveillance

Wastewater-based epidemiology provides a conceptual framework for the evaluation of the prevalence of public health related biomarkers. In the context of the Coronavirus disease-2019, wastewater monitoring emerged as a complementary tool for epidemic management. In this study, we evaluated data from six wastewater treatment plants in the region of Saxony, Germany. The study period lasted from February to December 2021 and covered the third and fourth regional epidemic waves. We collected 1065 daily composite samples and analyzed SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Regression models quantify the relation between RNA concentrations and disease prevalence. We demonstrated that the relation is site and time specific. Median loads per diagnosed case differed by a factor of 3-4 among sites during both waves and were on average 45 % higher during the third wave. In most cases, log-log-transformed data achieved better regression performance than non-transformed data and local calibration outperformed global models for all sites. The inclusion of lag/lead time, discharge and detection probability improved model performance in all cases significantly, but the importance of these components was also site and time specific. In all cases, models with lag/lead time and log-log-transformed data obtained satisfactory goodness-of-fit with adjusted coefficients of determination higher than 0.5. Back-estimation of testing efficiency from wastewater data confirmed state-wide prevalence estimation from individual testing statistics, but revealed pronounced differences throughout the epidemic waves and among the different sites.

Correlation between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater and COVID-19 cases in community: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been considered as a promising approach for population-wide surveillance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Many studies have successfully quantified severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentration in wastewater (CRNA). However, the correlation between the CRNA and the COVID-19 clinically confirmed cases in the corresponding wastewater catchments varies and the impacts of environmental and other factors remain unclear. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to identify the correlation between CRNA and various types of clinically confirmed case numbers, including prevalence and incidence rates. The impacts of environmental factors, WBE sampling design, and epidemiological conditions on the correlation were assessed for the same datasets. The systematic review identified 133 correlation coefficients, ranging from -0.38 to 0.99. The correlation between CRNA and new cases (either daily new, weekly new, or future cases) was stronger than that of active cases and cumulative cases. These correlation coefficients were potentially affected by environmental and epidemiological conditions and WBE sampling design. Larger variations of air temperature and clinical testing coverage, and the increase of catchment size showed strong negative impacts on the correlation between CRNA and COVID-19 case numbers. Interestingly, the sampling technique had negligible impact although increasing the sampling frequency improved the correlation. These findings highlight the importance of viral shedding dynamics, in-sewer decay, WBE sampling design and clinical testing on the accurate back-estimation of COVID-19 case numbers through the WBE approach.

Assessment of two volumetrically different concentration approaches to improve sensitivities for SARS-CoV-2 detection during wastewater monitoring

Wastewater monitoring for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, has highlighted the need for methodologies capable of assessing viral prevalence during periods of low population infection. To address this need, two volumetrically different, methodologically similar concentration approaches were compared for their abilities to detect viral nucleic acid and infectious SARS-CoV-2 signal from primary influent samples. For Method 1, 2 L of SARS-CoV-2 seeded wastewater was evaluated using a dead-end hollow fiber ultrafilter (D-HFUF) for primary concentration, followed by the CP Select™ for secondary concentration. For Method 2, 100 mL of SARS-CoV-2 seeded wastewater was evaluated using the CP Select™ procedure. Following D-HFUF concentration (Method 1), significantly lower levels of infectious SARS-CoV-2 were lost (P value range: 0.0398-0.0027) compared to viral gene copy (GC) levels detected by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) N1 and N2 reverse-transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) assays. Subsamples at different steps in the concentration process were also taken to better characterize the losses of SARS-CoV-2 during the concentration process. During the centrifugation step (prior to CP Select™ concentration), significantly higher losses (P value range: 0.0003 to <0.0001) occurred for SARS-CoV-2 GC levels compared to infectious virus for Method 1, while between the methods, significantly higher infectious viral losses were observed for Method 2 (P = 0.0002). When analyzing overall recovery of endogenous SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples, application of Method 1 improved assay sensitivities (P = <0.0001) compared with Method 2; this was especially evident during periods of lower COVID-19 case rates within the sewershed. This study describes a method which can successfully concentrate infectious SARS-CoV-2 and viral RNA from wastewater. Moreover, we demonstrated that large volume wastewater concentration provides additional sensitivity needed to improve SARS-CoV-2 detection, especially during low levels of community disease prevalence.

Wastewater to clinical case (WC) ratio of COVID-19 identifies insufficient clinical testing, onset of new variants of concern and population immunity in urban communities

Clinical testing has been the cornerstone of public health monitoring and infection control efforts in communities throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. With the anticipated reduction of clinical testing as the disease moves into an endemic state, SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance (WWS) will have greater value as an important diagnostic tool. An in-depth analysis and understanding of the metrics derived from WWS is required to interpret and utilize WWS-acquired data effectively (McClary-Gutierrez et al., 2021; O'Keeffe, 2021). In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater signal to clinical cases (WC) ratio was investigated across seven cities in Canada over periods ranging from 8 to 21 months. This work demonstrates that significant increases in the WC ratio occurred when clinical testing eligibility was modified to appointment-only testing, identifying a period of insufficient clinical testing (resulting in a reduction to testing access and a reduction in the number of daily tests) in these communities, despite increases in the wastewater signal. Furthermore, the WC ratio decreased significantly in 6 of the 7 studied locations, serving as a potential signal of the emergence of the Alpha variant of concern (VOC) in a relatively non-immunized community (40-60 % allelic proportion), while a more muted decrease in the WC ratio signaled the emergence of the Delta VOC in a relatively well-immunized community (40-60 % allelic proportion). Finally, a significant decrease in the WC ratio signaled the emergence of the Omicron VOC, likely because of the variant's greater effectiveness at evading immunity, leading to a significant number of new reported clinical cases, even when community immunity was high. The WC ratio, used as an additional monitoring metric, could complement clinical case counts and wastewater signals as individual metrics in its potential ability to identify important epidemiological occurrences, adding value to WWS as a diagnostic technology during the COVID-19 pandemic and likely for future pandemics.

Detection of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in the Transboundary Rivers of Yunnan, China

Ruili and Longchuan, two border counties in southwestern China, are facing epidemic control challenges due to the high rate of COVID-19 infections originating from neighboring Myanmar. Here, we aimed to establish the applicability of wastewater and environmental water surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and conduct whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to trace the possible infection origin. In August 2021, total 72 wastewater and river water samples were collected from 32 sampling sites. SARS-CoV-2 ORF1ab and N genes were measured by RT-qPCR. We found that 19 samples (26.39%) were positive, and the viral loads of ORF1ab and N genes were 6.62 × 102-2.55×105 and 1.86 × 103-2.32 × 105 copies/L, respectively. WGS further indicated the sequences in two transboundary river samples, and one hospital wastewater sample belonged to the delta variant, suggesting that the infection source might be areas with high COVID-19 delta variant incidence in Southeast Asia (e.g., Myanmar). We reported for the first time the detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the transboundary rivers of Myanmar-China. Our findings demonstrate that wastewater and environmental water may provide independent and nonintrusive surveillance points to monitor the global spread of emerging COVID-19 variants of concern, particularly in high-risk regions or border areas with considerable epidemic challenges and poor wastewater treatment facilities.

Calibration of Methods for SARS-CoV-2 Environmental Surveillance: A Case Study from Northwest Tuscany

The current pandemic has provided an opportunity to test wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a complementary method to SARS-CoV-2 monitoring in the community. However, WBE infection estimates can be affected by uncertainty factors, such as heterogeneity in analytical procedure, wastewater volume, and population size. In this paper, raw sewage SARS-CoV-2 samples were collected from four wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Tuscany (Northwest Italy) between February and December 2021. During the surveillance period, viral concentration was based on polyethylene glycol (PEG), but its precipitation method was modified from biphasic separation to centrifugation. Therefore, in parallel, the recovery efficiency of each method was evaluated at lab-scale, using two spiking viruses (human coronavirus 229E and mengovirus vMC₀). SARS-CoV-2 genome was found in 80 (46.5%) of the 172 examined samples. Lab-scale experiments revealed that PEG precipitation using centrifugation had the best recovery efficiency (up to 30%). Viral SARS-CoV-2 load obtained from sewage data, adjusted by analytical method and normalized by population of each WWTP, showed a good association with the clinical data in the study area. This study highlights that environmental surveillance data need to be carefully analyzed before their use in the WBE, also considering the sensibility of the analytical methods.

A State-of-the-Art Scoping Review on SARS-CoV-2 in Sewage Focusing on the Potential of Wastewater Surveillance for the Monitoring of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The outbreak of coronavirus infectious disease-2019 (COVID-19), caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has rapidly spread throughout the world. Several studies have shown that detecting SARS-CoV-2 in untreated wastewater can be a useful tool to identify new outbreaks, establish outbreak trends, and assess the prevalence of infections. On 06 May 2021, over a year into the pandemic, we conducted a scoping review aiming to summarize research data on SARS-CoV-2 in sewage. Papers dealing with raw sewage collected at wastewater treatment plants, sewer networks, septic tanks, and sludge treatment facilities were included in this review. We also reviewed studies on sewage collected in community settings such as private or municipal hospitals, healthcare facilities, nursing homes, dormitories, campuses, airports, aircraft, and cruise ships. The literature search was conducted using the electronic databases PubMed, EMBASE, and Web Science Core Collection. This comprehensive research yielded 1090 results, 66 of which met the inclusion criteria and are discussed in this review. Studies from 26 countries worldwide have investigated the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage of different origin. The percentage of positive samples in sewage ranged from 11.6 to 100%, with viral concentrations ranging from ˂LOD to 4.6 × 10⁸ genome copies/L. This review outlines the evidence currently available on wastewater surveillance: (i) as an early warning system capable of predicting COVID-19 outbreaks days or weeks before clinical cases; (ii) as a tool capable of establishing trends in current outbreaks; (iii) estimating the prevalence of infections; and (iv) studying SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity. In conclusion, as a cost-effective, rapid, and reliable source of information on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in the population, wastewater surveillance can enhance genomic and epidemiological surveillance with independent and complementary data to inform public health decision-making during the ongoing pandemic.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 genome and detection of variants of concern in wastewater influent from two metropolitan areas in Arkansas

Although SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe illness and death, a percentage of the infected population is asymptomatic. This, along with other factors, such as insufficient diagnostic testing and underreporting due to self-testing, contributes to the silent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and highlights the importance of implementing additional surveillance tools. The fecal shedding of the virus from infected individuals enables its detection in community wastewater, and this has become a valuable public health tool worldwide as it allows the monitoring of the disease on a populational scale. Here, we monitored the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and its dynamic genomic changes in wastewater sampled from two metropolitan areas in Arkansas during major surges of COVID-19 cases and assessed how the viral titers in these samples related to the clinical case counts between late April 2020 and January 2022. The levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were quantified by reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) using a set of TaqMan assays targeting three different viral genes (encoding ORF1ab polyprotein, surface glycoprotein, and nucleocapsid phosphoprotein). An allele-specific RT-qPCR approach was used to screen the samples for SARS-CoV-2 mutations. The identity and genetic diversity of the virus were further investigated through amplicon-based RNA sequencing, and SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were detected in wastewater samples throughout the duration of this study. Our data show how changes in the virus genome can affect the sensitivity of specific RT-qPCR assays used in COVID-19 testing with the surge of new variants. A significant association was observed between viral titers in wastewater and recorded number of COVID-19 cases in the areas studied, except when assays failed to detect targets due to the presence of particular variants. These findings support the use of wastewater surveillance as a reliable complementary tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 and its genetic variants at the community level.

Case Study: Impact of Diurnal Variations and Stormwater Dilution on SARS-CoV-2 RNA Signal Intensity at Neighborhood Scale Wastewater Pumping Stations

Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a tool to track the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, sampling at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) cannot identify transmission hotspots within a city. Here, we sought to understand the diurnal variations (24 h) in SARS-CoV-2 RNA titers at the neighborhood level, using pump stations that serve vulnerable communities (e.g., essential workers, more diverse communities). Hourly composite samples were collected from wastewater pump stations located in (i) a residential area and (ii) a shopping district. In the residential area, SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration (N1, N2, and E assays) varied by up to 42-fold within a 24 h period. The highest viral load was observed between 5 and 7 am, when viral RNA was not diluted by stormwater. Normalizing peak concentrations during this time window with nutrient concentrations (N and P) enabled correcting for rainfall to connect sewage to clinical cases reported in the sewershed. Data from the shopping district pump station were inconsistent, probably due to the fluctuation of customers shopping at the mall. This work indicates pump stations serving the residential area offer a narrow time period of high signal intensity that could improve the sensitivity of WBE, and tracer compounds (N, P concentration) can be used to normalize SARS-CoV-2 signals during rainfall.