A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems

Importance of Habitat Context in Modelling Risk Maps for Two Established Invasive Alien Plant Species: The Case of Ailanthus altissima and Phytolacca americana in Slovenia (Europe)

Forests are important ecosystems that face threats from climate change and global environmental shifts, with invasive alien plant species being a significant concern. Some of these invasive species have already become established, while others are in the process of naturalisation. Although forests are a relatively stable ecosystem, extreme weather events increase their vulnerability to change, and clearings left after natural disturbances are particularly susceptible to invasion by alien plant species (IAPS). We created risk maps of two species that have spread rapidly in the last decade: American pokeweed (Phytolacca americana) and the tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima). We prepared a generalised linear model based on the occurrence data collected within the LIFE ARTEMIS project. Eleven environmental variables were used to determine habitat characteristics. We constructed two models for each species: one covering the entirety of Slovenia and the other specifically for the forested areas in Slovenia, with the latter incorporating forest-specific variables (such as forest sanitation felling and monocultures). We observed the presence of both species at lower altitudes and in close proximity to water sources. American pokeweed tends to occur nearer to railways, while the presence of the tree of heaven is associated with areas lacking carbonate parent material and influenced by land use patterns. In forested areas, the occurrence of American pokeweed is influenced by forest habitat characteristics, such as disturbances caused by extreme weather events or the prevalence of Norway spruce monocultures. In contrast, the occurrence of the tree of heaven is influenced by more general environmental variables, such as altitude and proximity to railways. Consequently, we have generated risk maps for the entirety of Slovenia and separately for forested areas, both of which indicate similar levels of risk, particularly for the tree of heaven. The risk map for American pokeweed highlights numerous vulnerable areas, especially forest edges, which are highly susceptible to invasion. Furthermore, there is a higher likelihood of this species occurring in areas that have undergone sanitation felling. This study suggests that the production of risk maps of IAPS could be improved by focussing on habitat types and taking into account habitat-specific variables. This approach could enhance the early detection and management of these invasive species.

Drivers of spatio-temporal population dynamics of game species in a mountain landscape

Since the end of the nineteenth century, socio-economic changes have greatly altered the Central European landscape and the structural and functional quality of habitats. Urban sprawl areas have appeared, a reduction of multiple forest uses has resulted in the densification of forests and agricultural land use has changed fundamentally through specialisation and intensification. Many of these changes affect biodiversity. To determine the important drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics of the population of 28 game species, we first considered a total of 130 potential explanatory variables. Second, we aggregated the main drivers of single-species models for habitat guilds. Third, we evaluated the results to aid in the development and implementation of mitigation measures for different ecoregions. We used harvest data as a surrogate for population density from 1875 to 2014 in South Tyrol, Italy. In generalised linear models, we used environmental characteristics such as climate, landscape diversity and structures, land cover, hunting, wildlife diseases, competition and predation, land-use type, and intensity (including pesticide use) as explanatory variables to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of game species. The important drivers are land use and management changes (intensification in the agriculturally favourable areas, extensification or abandonment in the unfavourable areas) as well as associated changes in the landscape features, diversity and structure, and hunting management. Climatic variables, interspecific competition and diseases only play a subordinate role. The dynamics of the habitat guilds and their drivers provide concrete indications for measures to maintain or improve the habitat quality for the investigated species. Particularly important are transfer payments to ensure extensive agricultural use, increasingly through the takeover of personnel costs, but also for the installation of an independent body that monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of the measures.

A matter of size and shape: Microclimatic changes induced by experimental gap openings in a sessile oak-hornbeam forest

Forest management integrating nature conservation aspects into timber production focuses increasingly on small-scale interventions. However, the ecological consequences of gap cuttings remain ambiguous in oak-dominated forests. In the Pilis Gap Experiment, we analyze how combinations of different gap shapes (circular and elongated), and gap sizes (150 m² and 300 m²) affect the microclimate and biota of a mature sessile oak-hornbeam forest in Hungary. We first report the changes in direct and diffuse light, soil moisture, daily air and soil temperatures, and relative air humidity in the experimental cuttings in the vegetation season directly following their implementation. Diffuse light had a central maximum and a concentric pattern. Direct light was distributed along a north-south gradient, with maxima in northern gap parts. Soil moisture was determined by gap shape: it increased significantly in the center of circular gaps, with multiple local maxima in the southern-central parts of large circular gaps. Its pattern was negatively related to direct light, and larger spatial variability was present in circular than in elongated gaps. The daily mean air temperatures at 1.3 m increased in all, especially in large gaps. Soil and ground-level temperatures remained largely unchanged, reflecting on light and soil moisture conditions affecting evaporative cooling. Relative humidity remained unaltered. Even though the opening of experimental gaps changed microclimatic conditions immediately, effect sizes remained moderate. Gap size and gap shape were both important determinants of microclimate responses: gap size markedly affected irradiation increase, gap shape determined soil moisture surplus, while soil and air temperatures, and air humidity depended on both components of the gap design. We conclude that 150-300 m² sized management-created gaps can essentially maintain forest microclimate while theoretically providing enough light for oak regeneration; and that the manipulation of gap shape and gap size within this range are effective tools of adaptive management.

Natural disturbance regimes as a guide for sustainable forest management in Europe

In Europe, forest management has controlled forest dynamics to sustain commodity production over multiple centuries. Yet over-regulation for growth and yield diminishes resilience to environmental stress as well as threatens biodiversity, leading to increasing forest susceptibility to an array of disturbances. These trends have stimulated interest in alternative management systems, including natural dynamics silviculture (NDS). NDS aims to emulate natural disturbance dynamics at stand and landscape scales through silvicultural manipulations of forest structure and landscape patterns. We adapted a "Comparability Index" (CI) to assess convergence/divergence between natural disturbances and forest management effects. We extended the original CI concept based on disturbance size and frequency by adding the residual structure of canopy trees after a disturbance as a third dimension. We populated the model by compiling data on natural disturbance dynamics and management from 13 countries in Europe, covering four major forest types (i.e., spruce, beech, oak, and pine-dominated forests). We found that natural disturbances are highly variable in size, frequency, and residual structure, but European forest management fails to encompass this complexity. Silviculture in Europe is skewed toward even-aged systems, used predominately (72.9% of management) across the countries assessed. The residual structure proved crucial in the comparison of natural disturbances and silvicultural systems. CI indicated the highest congruence between uneven-aged silvicultural systems and key natural disturbance attributes. Even so, uneven-aged practices emulated only a portion of the complexity associated with natural disturbance effects. The remaining silvicultural systems perform poorly in terms of retention compared to tree survivorship after natural disturbances. We suggest that NDS can enrich Europe's portfolio of management systems, for example where wood production is not the primary objective. NDS is especially relevant to forests managed for habitat quality, risk reduction, and a variety of ecosystem services. We suggest a holistic approach integrating NDS with more conventional practices.

Windstorm Impacts on Forest-Related Socio-Ecological Systems: An Analysis from a Socio-Economic and Institutional Perspective

Windstorms are considered among the most impacting natural events for European forests and related Socio-Ecological Systems (SES). Given that their intensity and frequency are increasing, an in-depth understanding of their impacts is crucial to mitigate risks and potential negative effects. However, so far, scientific research on windstorm impacts has mainly focused on environmental dimensions, while socio-economic and institutional ones are rarely taken into consideration. Our analysis aims at enriching the current scientific knowledge on windstorm impacts on forest SES by providing an overview of the state-of-the-art academic investigations on windstorm impacts on socio-economic and institutional dimensions. Overall, 46 papers were reviewed to identify the most recurrent post-windstorm dynamics and drivers that influence resilience and adaptation of socio-economic, institutional and related governance dimensions of European forest SES. Results show that the current scientific knowledge on socio-economic impacts of windstorms mainly concentrates on forest-related stakeholders and sectors, paying little attention to the broader social, cultural and institutional drivers that contribute to forest SES resilience. Further, cascade effects linking environmental, social and institutional dimensions are poorly analyzed. This restricted focus could lead to an incomplete understanding of the dynamics shaping socio-economic adaptability to windstorms, affecting long-term and sustainable recovery from extreme natural events. To correctly frame effective, intersectoral and coordinated recovery strategies gaining a deeper understanding of human–environment interactions is needed, as well as acknowledging the positive influence of causal relationships in improving forest-related SES resilience.

A Meta-Overview and Bibliometric Analysis of Resilience in Spatial Planning - the Relevance of Place-Based Approaches

This study offers a literature review and bibliometric analysis aiming to enhance our understanding of the actual contribution of resilience approaches to spatial and territorial development and planning studies. Using citation link-based clustering and statistical text-mining techniques (in terms of prevalence of topics, over time, extraction of relevant terms, keywords frequencies), our study maps scientific domains that include the spatial dimension of resilience thinking. It offers a systematic assessment of modern approaches by connecting profoundly theoretical views to more instrumental and policy-oriented approaches. Firstly, the theoretical background of spatial resilience used in numerous studies in various fields is analysed from the viewpoint of the type of embedded resilience (engineering, ecological, social-ecological, economic, social etc.). Secondly, we review and discuss the significance of three main and consistent research directions in terms of different scales and political/institutional contexts that matter from the viewpoint of spatial and territorial planning. Our findings show that spatial resilience debates are far from being settled, as according to many scientists, resilience measurements are often based on technical-reductionist frameworks that cannot comprehensively reflect the complex systems and issues they address. Our conclusions highlight the necessity of a harmonized framework and integrated perspective on resilience in sustainable territorial planning and development, in both theoretical and empirical contexts.

Modelling and prediction of wind damage in forest ecosystems of the Sudety Mountains, SW Poland

Windstorms are one of the most important disturbance factors in European forest ecosystems. An understanding of the major drivers causing observed changes in forests is essential to improve prediction models and as a basis for forest management. In the present study, we use machine learning techniques in combination with data sets on tree properties, bioclimatic and geomorphic conditions, to analyse the level of forest damage by windstorms in the Sudety Mountains over the period 2004-2010. We tested four scenarios under five classification model frameworks: logistic regression, random forest, support vector machines, neural networks, and gradient boosted modelling. Gradient boosted modelling and random forest have the best predictive power. Tree volume and age are the most important predictors of windstorm damage; climate and geomorphic variables are less important. Forest damage maps based on forest data from 2020 show lower probabilities of damage compared to the end of 20th and the beginning of 21st century.

Long-Term Monitoring of Vegetation Dynamics in the Rhodopi Mountain Range National Park-Greece

While deforestation is a major environmental issue in the tropics, with thousands of hectares converted to agricultural land every year, in Europe the opposite trend is observed, with land abandonment in mountainous and semi-mountainous areas allowing the afforestation of former agricultural and pastoral land. This trend allows semi-natural ecosystems to recover after a prolonged period of exploitation and often over-exploitation, but it may also lead to significant loss of landscape heterogeneity with potentially detrimental effects on biodiversity. The current study aims to monitor changes in the vegetation coverage across a period of 35 years (between 1984 and 2019) in the Rhodopi Mountains range National Park in northern Greece. A time series of LANDSAT TM (16 images), LANDSAT ETM + (1 image) and LANDSAT 8 OLI/TIRS (4 images) were employed. One data transformation method was applied (TCT), and five vegetation indices (NDVI, NDWI, SAVI, EVI2 and BSI) were calculated to capture the land cover transition during the study period. The obtained results and all used indices suggest that over the study period there was a continuous trend of vegetation cover increasing, with open areas decreasing. The observed trend was further confirmed using Object Oriented Image Analysis on two pairs of images sensed in 1984 and 2019, respectively. The results suggest that almost 22.000 ha of open habitats have been lost to broadleaved and conifer woodlands, while the former also appear to be advancing into conifer-covered areas. This trend has led to significant loss of landscape heterogeneity and to a broadleaf-dominated landscape. The results are discussed in relation to their driving forces, the potential implications on biodiversity and the risk of wildfires in the near future.

Climate-induced forest dieback drives compositional changes in insect communities that are more pronounced for rare species

Species richness, abundance and biomass of insects have recently undergone marked declines in Europe. We metabarcoded 211 Malaise-trap samples to investigate whether drought-induced forest dieback and subsequent salvage logging had an impact on ca. 3000 species of flying insects in silver fir Pyrenean forests. While forest dieback had no measurable impact on species richness, there were significant changes in community composition that were consistent with those observed during natural forest succession. Importantly, most observed changes were driven by rare species. Variation was explained primarily by canopy openness at the local scale, and the tree-related microhabitat diversity and deadwood amount at landscape scales. The levels of salvage logging in our study did not explain compositional changes. We conclude that forest dieback drives changes in species assemblages that mimic natural forest succession, and markedly increases the risk of catastrophic loss of rare species through homogenization of environmental conditions.

An Improved Forest Structure Data Set for Europe

Today, European forests face many challenges but also offer opportunities, such as climate change mitigation, provision of renewable resources, energy and other ecosystem services. Large-scale analyses to assess these opportunities are hindered by the lack of a consistent, spatial and accessible forest structure data. This study presents a freely available pan-European forest structure data set. Building on our previous work, we used data from six additional countries and consider now ten key forest stand variables. Harmonized inventory data from 16 European countries were used in combination with remote sensing data and a gap-filling algorithm to produce this consistent and comparable forest structure data set across European forests. We showed how land cover data can be used to scale inventory data to a higher resolution which in turn ensures a consistent data structure across sub-regional, country and European forest assessments. Cross validation and comparison with published country statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate that the chosen methodology is able to produce robust and accurate forest structure data across Europe, even for areas where no inventory data were available.

Site-specific risk assessment enables trade-off analysis of non-native tree species in European forests

Non-native tree species (NNT) are used in European forestry for many purposes including their growth performance, valuable timber, and resistance to drought and pest or pathogen damage. Yet, cultivating NNT may pose risks to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provisioning of ecosystem services, and several NNT have been classified as invasive in Europe. Typically, such classifications are based on risk assessments, which do not adequately consider site-specific variations in impacts of the NNT or the extent of affected areas. Here, we present a new methodological framework that facilitates both mitigating risks associated with NNT and taking advantage of their ecosystem services. The framework is based on a stratified assessment of risks posed by NNT which distinguishes between different sites and considers effectiveness of available management strategies to control negative effects. The method can be applied to NNT that already occur in a given area or those NNT that may establish in future. The framework consists of eight steps and is partly based on existing knowledge. If adequate site-specific knowledge on NNT does not yet exist, new evidence on the risks should be obtained, for example, by collecting and analyzing monitoring data or modeling the potential distribution of NNT. However, limitations remain in the application of this method, and we propose several policy and management recommendations which are required to improve the responsible use of NNT.

Addressing disturbance risk to mountain forest ecosystem services

Ecosystem service (ES) mapping has been developed with the aim of supporting ecosystem management, but ES maps often lack information about uncertainty and risk, which is essential for decision-making. In this paper, we use a risk-based approach to map ES in mountain forests, which are experiencing an increasing rate of natural disturbances, such as windthrow, bark beetle outbreaks, and forest fires. These disturbances affect the capacity of forests to provide essential ecosystem services, such as protection from natural hazards, wood production, and carbon sequestration, thus posing a challenge for forest management. At the same time, disturbances may also have a positive effect on certain services, e.g. by improving habitats for species that rely on dead wood. We integrate forests' susceptibility to natural disturbances into probabilistic Bayesian Network models of a set of ES (avalanche protection, carbon sequestration, recreation, habitats, and wood production), which combine information from remote sensing, social media and in-situ data, existing process-based models, and local expert knowledge. We use these models to map the level of the services and the associated uncertainties under scenarios with and without natural disturbances in two case study areas in the Swiss Alps. We use clustering to identify bundles of risk to ES, and compare the patterns of risk between the non-protected area of Davos and the strictly protected area of the Swiss National park with its surroundings. The spatially heterogeneous pattern of risk to ES reflects topographic variability and the forest characteristics that drive disturbance susceptibility, but also the demand for ecosystem services. In the landscape of Davos, the most relevant risks to ES are related to decreases in the protection against avalanches and carbon sequestration, as well as some risk to wood production and recreation. In the strictly protected Swiss National Park, the overall level of ES risk is lower, with an increase in habitat quality under the disturbance scenario. This risk-based approach can help identify stands with high levels of ES that are particularly susceptible to disturbances, as well as forests with a more stable ES provision, which can help define priorities in forest management planning.

Tree-Related Microhabitats Follow Similar Patterns but are More Diverse in Primary Compared to Managed Temperate Mountain Forests

The impact of forest management on biodiversity is difficult to scrutinize along gradients of management. A step towards analyzing the impact of forest management on biodiversity is comparisons between managed and primary forests. The standardized typology of tree-related microhabitats (TreMs) is a multi-taxon indicator used to quantify forest biodiversity. We aim to analyze the influence of environmental factors on the occurrence of groups of TreMs by comparing primary and managed forests. We collected data for the managed forests in the Black Forest (Germany) and for the primary forests in the Western (Slovakia) and Southern Carpathians (Romania). To model the richness and the different groups of TreMs per tree, we used generalized linear mixed models with diameter at breast height (DBH), altitude, slope and aspect as predictors for European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L.)), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.)) and silver fir (Abies alba (Mill.)) in primary and managed temperate mountain forests. We found congruent results for overall richness and the vast majority of TreM groups. Trees in primary forests hosted a greater richness of all and specific types of TreMs than individuals in managed forests. The main drivers of TreMs are DBH and altitude, while slope and aspect play a minor role. We recommend forest and nature conservation managers to focus: 1) on the conservation of remaining primary forests and 2) approaches of biodiversity-oriented forest management on the selection of high-quality habitat trees that already provide a high number of TreMs in managed forests based on the comparison with primary forests.

Accelerating Mountain Forest Dynamics in the Alps

Climate change alters forest development pathways, with consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity. As the rate of warming increases, ecosystem change is expected to accelerate. However, ecosystem dynamics can have many causes unrelated to climate (for example, disturbance and stand development legacies). The compound effects of multiple drivers remain largely unclear. Here, we assessed forest dynamics over 28 years at Berchtesgaden National Park (BGNP), Germany, quantifying the spatiotemporal patterns and unraveling the drivers of forest change. We analyzed high-density forest inventory data, consisting of three consecutive censuses of 3759 permanent sample plots (132,866 tree records in total). We used semi-variograms to analyze spatial patterns of change, and boosted regression trees to quantify the effect of 30 covariates on changes in nine indicators of forest structure and composition. Over the 28 years investigated, the forests of BGNP were becoming denser, structurally more complex, and more species rich. Changes in forest structure were more pronounced and spatially correlated on the landscape than changes in tree species composition. Change rates of all indicators increased over time, signifying an acceleration of forest dynamics since the 1980s. Legacies and climate were the most important drivers of change, but had diverging impacts. Although forest change accelerated with increasing temperature, high legacy levels typical for late development stages dampened it. We here provide evidence for accelerating forest dynamics in mountain forests of the Alps, with potentially far-reaching consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem processes. We highlight that unmanaged forest development toward old-growth conditions could counteract climate-mediated acceleration of forest change.

Domestic Livestock and Rewilding: Are They Mutually Exclusive?

Human influence extends across the globe, from the tallest mountains to the deep bottom of the oceans. There is a growing call for nature to be protected from the negative impacts of human activity (particularly intensive agriculture); so-called “land sparing”. A relatively new approach is “rewilding”, defined as the restoration of self-sustaining and complex ecosystems, with interlinked ecological processes that promote and support one another while minimising or gradually reducing human intervention. The key theoretical basis of rewilding is to return ecosystems to a “natural” or “self-willed” state with trophic complexity, dispersal (and connectivity) and stochastic disturbance in place. However, this is constrained by context-specific factors whereby it may not be possible to restore the native species that formed part of the trophic structure of the ecosystem if they are extinct (e.g., mammoths, Mammuthus spp., aurochs, Bos primigenius); and, populations/communities of native herbivores/predators may not be able to survive or be acceptable to the public in small scale rewilding projects close to areas of high human density. Therefore, the restoration of natural trophic complexity and disturbance regimes within rewilding projects requires careful consideration if the broader conservation needs of society are to be met. In some circumstances, managers will require a more flexible deliberate approach to intervening in rewilding projects using the range of tools in their toolbox (e.g., controlled burning regimes; using domestic livestock to replicate the impacts of extinct herbivore species), even if this is only in the early stages of the rewilding process. If this approach is adopted, then larger areas can be given over to conservation, because of the potential broader benefits to society from these spaces and the engagement of farmers in practises that are closer to their traditions. We provide examples, primarily European, where domestic and semi-domestic livestock are used by managers as part of their rewilding toolbox. Here managers have looked at the broader phenotype of livestock species as to their suitability in different rewilding systems. We assess whether there are ways of using livestock in these systems for conservation, economic (e.g., branded or certified livestock products) and cultural gains.

Moderate- to High-Severity Disturbances Shaped the Structure of Primary Picea Abies (L.) Karst. Forest in the Southern Carpathians

Research Highlights: Past disturbances occurred naturally in primary forests in the Southern Carpathians. High- and moderate-severity disturbances shaped the present structure of these ecosystems, which regenerated successfully without forestry interventions. Background and Objectives: Windstorms and bark beetle outbreaks have recently affected large forest areas across the globe, causing concerns that these disturbances lie outside the range of natural variability of forest ecosystems. This often led to salvage logging inside protected areas, one of the main reasons for primary forest loss in Eastern Europe. Although more than two-thirds of temperate primary forests in Europe are located in the Carpathian region of Eastern Europe, knowledge about how natural disturbances shape the forest dynamics in this region is highly essential for future management decisions. Material and Methods: We established our study in a primary forest valley situated in the centre of the largest temperate primary forest landscape in Europe (Făgăraș Mountains). A dendrochronological investigation was carried out to reconstruct the natural disturbance history and relate it to the present forest structure. Results: The dendrochronological analysis revealed high temporal variability in the disturbance patterns both at the patch and stand level. Moderate severity disturbance events were most common (20–40% of canopy disturbed in 60% of the plots) but high severity events did also occur (33% of the plots). Regeneration was spruce-dominated and 71% of the seedlings were found on deadwood microsites. Conclusions: We conclude that the current structure of the studied area is a consequence of the past moderate-severity disturbances and sporadic high-severity events. The peak in disturbances (1880–1910) followed by reduced disturbance rates may contribute to a recent and future increase in disturbances in the Făgăraș Mts. Our findings show that these disturbance types are within the range of natural variability of mountain spruce forests in the Southern Carpathians and should not be a reason for salvage logging in primary forests from this area.

Quantifying natural disturbances using a large-scale dendrochronological reconstruction to guide forest management

Estimates of historical disturbance patterns are essential to guide forest management aimed at ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem functions and biodiversity. However, quantitative estimates of various disturbance characteristics required in management applications are rare in longer-term historical studies. Thus, our objectives were to (1) quantify past disturbance severity, patch size, and stand proportion disturbed and (2) test for temporal and subregional differences in these characteristics. We developed a comprehensive dendrochronological method to evaluate an approximately two-century-long disturbance record in the remaining Central and Eastern European primary mountain spruce forests, where wind and bark beetles are the predominant disturbance agents. We used an unprecedented large-scale nested design data set of 541 plots located within 44 stands and 6 subregions. To quantify individual disturbance events, we used tree-ring proxies, which were aggregated at plot and stand levels by smoothing and detecting peaks in their distributions. The spatial aggregation of disturbance events was used to estimate patch sizes. Data exhibited continuous gradients from low- to high-severity and small- to large-size disturbance events. In addition to the importance of small disturbance events, moderate-scale (25-75% of the stand disturbed, >10 ha patch size) and moderate-severity (25-75% of canopy disturbed) events were also common. Moderate disturbances represented more than 50% of the total disturbed area and their rotation periods ranged from one to several hundred years, which is within the lifespan of local tree species. Disturbance severities differed among subregions, whereas the stand proportion disturbed varied significantly over time. This indicates partially independent variations among disturbance characteristics. Our quantitative estimates of disturbance severity, patch size, stand proportion disturbed, and associated rotation periods provide rigorous baseline data for future ecological research, decisions within biodiversity conservation, and silviculture intended to maintain native biodiversity and ecosystem functions. These results highlight a need for sufficiently large and adequately connected networks of strict reserves, more complex silvicultural treatments that emulate the natural disturbance spectrum in harvest rotation times, sizes, and intensities, and higher levels of tree and structural legacy retention.

Combined forest and soil management after a catastrophic event

At the end of October 2018, a storm of unprecedented strength severely damaged the forests of the eastern sector of the Italian Alps. The affected forest area covers 42,500 ha. The president of one of the damaged regions asked for help from the University of Padua. After eight months of discussion, the authors of this article wrote a consensus text. The sometimes asper debate brought to light some crucial aspects: 1) even experienced specialists may have various opinions based on scientific knowledge that lead to conflicting proposals for action. For some of them there is evidence that to restore a destroyed natural environment it is more judicious to do nothing; 2) the soil corresponds to a living structure and every ecosystem's management should be based on it; 3) faced with a catastrophe, people and politicians find themselves unarmed, also because they rarely have the scientific background to understand natural processes. Yet politicians are the only persons who make the key decisions that drive the economy in play and therefore determine the near future of our planet. This article is an attempt to respond directly to a governor with a degree in animal production science, who formally and prudently asked a university department called "Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry" for help before taking decisions; 4) the authors also propose an artistic interpretation of facts (uncontrolled storm) and conclusions (listen to the soil). Briefly, the authors identify the soil as an indispensable source for the renewal of the destroyed forest, give indications on how to prepare a map of the soils of the damaged region, and suggest to anchor on this soil map a series of silvicultural and soil management actions that will promote the soil conservation and the faster recovery of the natural dynamic stability and resilience.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/s11629-019-5890-0 and is accessible for authorized users.

Solar Cycles in Salvage Logging: National Data from the Czech Republic Confirm Significant Correlation

Forest ecosystems in Europe undergo cyclic fluctuations with alternating periods of forest prosperity and disturbances. Forest disturbances are caused by large-scale calamities (climate-induced and unforeseen events) resulting in an increased volume of salvage logging. In recent decades, climate change (warming, long-term droughts, more frequent storms, bark beetle outbreaks) has contributed to an increased frequency of salvage logging. However, until now, it has not been revealed what triggers national-scale forest calamities. All of the above-mentioned natural disturbances are connected to solar activity, which is the driver of climate change. This research relates the total volume of harvested timber and salvage logging to the climate and cosmic factors in the Czech Republic, Central Europe. Data of total and salvage logging are compared with air temperatures, precipitation, extreme climatic events, sunspot areas, and cosmic ray intensities. The results document a significant effect of average annual temperatures on the total and salvage logging for the entire period of observations since 1961. A significant correlation of salvage logging to the sunspot area and cosmic ray intensity was observed. The link between salvage logging and sunspots and cosmic ray intensity is supported by spectral analysis in which a significant 11-year cycle was observed since 1973. The results also show an increasing significant effect of sunspots and cosmic ray intensity on logging in recent years in connection with synergism of extreme climate events and the subsequent bark beetle outbreaks. Space and cosmic effects are factors that substantially influence forest ecosystems. Therefore, this paper provides new knowledge about, and possible predictions of, the forest response under climate change.

Land-use and climatic causes of environmental novelty in Wisconsin since 1890

Multiple global change drivers are increasing the present and future novelty of environments and ecological communities. However, most assessments of environmental novelty have focused only on future climate and were conducted at scales too broad to be useful for land management or conservation. Here, using historical county-level data sets of agricultural land use, forest composition, and climate, we conduct a regional-scale assessment of environmental novelty for Wisconsin landscapes from ca. 1890 to 2012. Agricultural land-use data include six cropland types, livestock densities for four livestock species, and human populations. Forestry data comprise biomass-weighted relative abundances for 15 tree genera. Climate data comprise seasonal means for temperature and precipitation. We found that forestry and land use are the strongest cause of environmental novelty (Novelty_Forest  = 3.66, Novelty_Ag  = 2.83, Novelty_Climate  = 1.60, with Wisconsin's forests transformed by early 20th-century logging and its legacies and multiple waves of agricultural innovation and obsolescence. Climate change is the smallest contributor to contemporary novelty, with precipitation signals stronger than temperature. Magnitudes and causes of environmental novelty are strongly spatially patterned, with novelty in southern Wisconsin roughly twice that in northern Wisconsin. Forestry is the most important cause of novelty in the north, land use and climate change are jointly important in the southwestern Wisconsin, and land use and forest composition are most important in central and eastern Wisconsin. Areas of high regional novelty tend also to be areas of high local change, but local change has not pushed all counties beyond regional baselines. Seven counties serve as the best historical analogues for over one-half of contemporary Wisconsin counties (40/72), and so can offer useful historical counterparts for contemporary systems and help managers coordinate to tackle similar environmental challenges. Multi-dimensional environmental novelty analyses, like those presented here, can help identify the best historical analogues for contemporary ecosystems, places where new management rules and practices may be needed because novelty is already high, and the main causes of novelty. Separating regional novelty clearly from local change and measuring both across many dimensions and at multiple scales thus helps advance ecology and sustainability science alike.

Rewilding complex ecosystems

The practice of rewilding has been both promoted and criticized in recent years. Benefits include flexibility to react to environmental change and the promotion of opportunities for society to reconnect with nature. Criticisms include the lack of a clear conceptualization of rewilding, insufficient knowledge about possible outcomes, and the perception that rewilding excludes people from landscapes. Here, we present a framework for rewilding that addresses these concerns. We suggest that rewilding efforts should target trophic complexity, natural disturbances, and dispersal as interacting processes that can improve ecosystem resilience and maintain biodiversity. We propose a structured approach to rewilding projects that includes assessment of the contributions of nature to people and the social-ecological constraints on restoration.

Proportional mixture of two rarefaction/extrapolation curves to forecast biodiversity changes under landscape transformation

Progressive habitat transformation causes global changes in landscape biodiversity patterns, but can be hard to quantify. Rarefaction/extrapolation approaches can quantify within-habitat biodiversity, but may not be useful for cases in which one habitat type is progressively transformed into another habitat type. To quantify biodiversity patterns in such transformed landscapes, we use Hill numbers to analyse individual-based species abundance data or replicated, sample-based incidence data. Given biodiversity data from two distinct habitat types, when a specified proportion of original habitat is transformed, our approach utilises a proportional mixture of two within-habitat rarefaction/extrapolation curves to analytically predict biodiversity changes, with bootstrap confidence intervals to assess sampling uncertainty. We also derive analytic formulas for assessing species composition (i.e. the numbers of shared and unique species) for any mixture of the two habitat types. Our analytical and numerical analyses revealed that species unique to each habitat type are the most important determinants of landscape biodiversity patterns.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

Post-disturbance recovery of forest carbon in a temperate forest landscape under climate change

Disturbances alter composition, structure, and functioning of forest ecosystems, and their legacies persist for decades to centuries. We investigated how temperate forest landscapes may recover their carbon (C) after severe wind and bark beetle disturbance, while being exposed to climate change. We used the forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to quantify (i) the recovery times of the total ecosystem C, (ii) the effect of climate change on C recovery, and (iii) the differential factors contributing to C recovery. We reconstructed a recent disturbance episode (2008-2016) based on Landsat satellite imagery, which affected 39% of the forest area in the 16,000 ha study landscape. We subsequently simulated forest recovery under a continuation of business-asusual management until 2100. Our results indicated that the recovery of the pre-disturbance C stocks (C payback time) was reached 17 years after the end of the disturbance episode. The C stocks of a theoretical undisturbed development trajectory were reached 30 years after the disturbance episode (C sequestration parity). Drier and warmer climates delayed simulated C recovery. Without the fertilizing effect of CO₂, C payback times were delayed by 5-9 years, while C parity was not reached within the 21st century. Recovery was accelerated by an enhanced C uptake compared to undisturbed conditions (disturbance legacy sink effect) that persisted for 35 years after the disturbance episode. Future climate could have negative impacts on forest recovery and thus further amplify climate change through C loss from ecosystems, but the effect is strongly contingent on the magnitude and persistence of alleviating CO₂ effects. Our modelling study highlights the need to consider both negative and positive effects of disturbance (i.e., C loss immediately after an event vs. enhanced C uptake of the recovering forest) in order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of disturbance effects on the forest C cycle.

Measuring rewilding progress

Rewilding is emerging as a promising restoration strategy to enhance the conservation status of biodiversity and promote self-regulating ecosystems while re-engaging people with nature. Overcoming the challenges in monitoring and reporting rewilding projects would improve its practical implementation and maximize its conservation and restoration outcomes. Here, we present a novel approach for measuring and monitoring progress in rewilding that focuses on the ecological attributes of rewilding. We devised a bi-dimensional framework for assessing the recovery of processes and their natural dynamics through (i) decreasing human forcing on ecological processes and (ii) increasing ecological integrity of ecosystems. The rewilding assessment framework incorporates the reduction of material inputs and outputs associated with human management, as well as the restoration of natural stochasticity and disturbance regimes, landscape connectivity and trophic complexity. Furthermore, we provide a list of potential activities for increasing the ecological integrity after reviewing the evidence for the effectiveness of common restoration actions. For illustration purposes, we apply the framework to three flagship restoration projects in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Argentina. This approach has the potential to broaden the scope of rewilding projects, facilitate sound decision-making and connect the science and practice of rewilding.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Forest structure following natural disturbances and early succession provides habitat for two avian flagship species, capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia)

Boreal and mountainous forests are a primary focus of conservation efforts and are naturally prone to large-scale disturbances, such as outbreaks of bark beetles. Affected stands are characterised by biological legacies which persist through the disturbance and subsequent succession. The lack of long-term monitoring data on post-disturbance forest structure precludes understanding of the complex pathways by which natural disturbances affect forest structure and subsequently species presence. We analysed the response of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) to bark beetle infestations. We combined high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) with a 23-year time series of aerial photography to quantify present-day forest structure and stand disturbance history. Species presence was assessed by collecting droppings of hazel grouse and capercaillie in a citizen science project. Structural equation models showed that the probability of hazel grouse presence increased with increasing disturbance, and the probability of both hazel grouse and capercaillie presence increased with succession. Indirect effects of bark beetle infestations, such as a reduced abundance of deciduous trees and an enhanced herb layer cover, were positively associated with capercaillie presence. Decreasing canopy cover increased the probability of hazel grouse presence. The high temporal and spatial heterogeneity of bark beetle infestations created forest structures that meet the contrasting habitat requirements of both, capercaillie and hazel grouse. This heterogeneity resulted from biological legacies such as decomposing snags, and the simultaneous regrowth of natural regeneration. A benign-neglect strategy towards bark beetle infestations could hence foster capercaillie and hazel grouse in mountainous forests.

Large-scale disturbance legacies and the climate sensitivity of primary Picea abies forests

Determining the drivers of shifting forest disturbance rates remains a pressing global change issue. Large-scale forest dynamics are commonly assumed to be climate driven, but appropriately scaled disturbance histories are rarely available to assess how disturbance legacies alter subsequent disturbance rates and the climate sensitivity of disturbance. We compiled multiple tree ring-based disturbance histories from primary Picea abies forest fragments distributed throughout five European landscapes spanning the Bohemian Forest and the Carpathian Mountains. The regional chronology includes 11,595 tree cores, with ring dates spanning the years 1750-2000, collected from 560 inventory plots in 37 stands distributed across a 1,000 km geographic gradient, amounting to the largest disturbance chronology yet constructed in Europe. Decadal disturbance rates varied significantly through time and declined after 1920, resulting in widespread increases in canopy tree age. Approximately 75% of current canopy area recruited prior to 1900. Long-term disturbance patterns were compared to an historical drought reconstruction, and further linked to spatial variation in stand structure and contemporary disturbance patterns derived from LANDSAT imagery. Historically, decadal Palmer drought severity index minima corresponded to higher rates of canopy removal. The severity of contemporary disturbances increased with each stand's estimated time since last major disturbance, increased with mean diameter, and declined with increasing within-stand structural variability. Reconstructed spatial patterns suggest that high small-scale structural variability has historically acted to reduce large-scale susceptibility and climate sensitivity of disturbance. Reduced disturbance rates since 1920, a potential legacy of high 19th century disturbance rates, have contributed to a recent region-wide increase in disturbance susceptibility. Increasingly common high-severity disturbances throughout primary Picea forests of Central Europe should be reinterpreted in light of both legacy effects (resulting in increased susceptibility) and climate change (resulting in increased exposure to extreme events).

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Invasive alien pests can cause large-scale forest mortality and release carbon stored in forests. Here the authors show that climate change increases the potential range of alien pests and that their impact on the carbon cycle could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe’s forests.

Intermediate-severity wind disturbance in mature temperate forests: legacy structure, carbon storage, and stand dynamics

Wind is one of the most important natural disturbances influencing forest structure, ecosystem function, and successional processes worldwide. This study quantifies the stand-scale effects of intermediate-severity windstorms (i.e., blowdowns) on (1) live and dead legacy structure, (2) aboveground carbon storage, and (3) tree regeneration and associated stand dynamics at four mature, mixed hardwood-conifer forest sites in the northeastern United States. We compare wind-affected forests to adjacent reference conditions (i.e., undisturbed portions of the same stands) 0-8 yr post-blowdown using parametric (ANOVA) and nonparametric (NMS ordination) analyses. We supplement inventory plots and downed coarse woody detritus (DCWD) transects with hemispherical photography to capture spatial variation in the light environment. Although recent blowdowns transferred a substantial proportion of live overstory trees to DCWD, residual live tree basal area was high (19-59% of reference areas). On average, the initial post-blowdown ratio of DCWD carbon to standing live tree carbon was 2.72 in blowdown stands and 0.18 in reference stands, indicating a large carbon transfer from live to dead pools. Despite these dramatic changes, structural complexity remained high in blowdown areas, as indicated by the size and species distributions of overstory trees, abundance of sound and rotten downed wood, spatial patterns of light availability, and variability of understory vegetation. Furthermore, tree species composition was similar between blowdown and reference areas at each site, with generally shade-tolerant species dominating across multiple canopy strata. Community response to intermediate-severity blowdown at these sites suggests a dynamic in which disturbance maintains late-successional species composition rather than providing a regeneration opportunity for shade-intolerant, pioneer species. Our findings suggest that intermediate-severity wind disturbances can contribute to stand-scale structural complexity as well as development toward late-successional species composition, at least when shade-tolerant regeneration is present pre-blowdown. Advance regeneration thus enhances structural and compositional resilience to this type of disturbance. This study provides a baseline for multi-cohort silvicultural systems designed to restore heterogeneity associated with natural disturbance dynamics.

Natural disturbances are spatially diverse but temporally synchronized across temperate forest landscapes in Europe

Natural disturbance regimes are changing substantially in forests around the globe. However, large-scale disturbance change is modulated by a considerable spatiotemporal variation within biomes. This variation remains incompletely understood particularly in the temperate forests of Europe, for which consistent large-scale disturbance information is lacking. Here, our aim was to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances across temperate forest landscapes in Europe using remote sensing data and determine their underlying drivers. Specifically, we tested two hypotheses: (1) Topography determines the spatial patterns of disturbance, and (2) climatic extremes synchronize natural disturbances across the biome. We used novel Landsat-based maps of forest disturbances 1986-2016 in combination with landscape analysis to compare spatial disturbance patterns across five unmanaged forest landscapes with varying topographic complexity. Furthermore, we analyzed annual estimates of disturbances for synchronies and tested the influence of climatic extremes on temporal disturbance patterns. Spatial variation in disturbance patterns was substantial across temperate forest landscapes. With increasing topographic complexity, natural disturbance patches were smaller, more complex in shape, more dispersed, and affected a smaller portion of the landscape. Temporal disturbance patterns, however, were strongly synchronized across all landscapes, with three distinct waves of high disturbance activity between 1986 and 2016. All three waves followed years of pronounced drought and high peak wind speeds. Natural disturbances in temperate forest landscapes of Europe are thus spatially diverse but temporally synchronized. We conclude that the ecological effect of natural disturbances (i.e., whether they are homogenizing a landscape or increasing its heterogeneity) is strongly determined by the topographic template. Furthermore, as the strong biome-wide synchronization of disturbances was closely linked to climatic extremes, large-scale disturbance episodes are likely in Europe's temperate forests under climate changes.

Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems

In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management.

Land-use history as a guide for forest conservation and management

Conservation efforts to protect forested landscapes are challenged by climate projections that suggest substantial restructuring of vegetation and disturbance regimes in the future. In this regard, paleoecological records that describe ecosystem responses to past variations in climate, fire, and human activity offer critical information for assessing present landscape conditions and future landscape vulnerability. We illustrate this point drawing on 8 sites in the northwestern United States, New Zealand, Patagonia, and central and southern Europe that have undergone different levels of climate and land-use change. These sites fall along a gradient of landscape conditions that range from nearly pristine (i.e., vegetation and disturbance shaped primarily by past climate and biophysical constraints) to highly altered (i.e., landscapes that have been intensely modified by past human activity). Position on this gradient has implications for understanding the role of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in shaping ecosystem dynamics and assessments of present biodiversity, including recognizing missing or overrepresented species. Dramatic vegetation reorganization occurred at all study sites as a result of postglacial climate variations. In nearly pristine landscapes, such as those in Yellowstone National Park, climate has remained the primary driver of ecosystem change up to the present day. In Europe, natural vegetation-climate-fire linkages were broken 6000-8000 years ago with the onset of Neolithic farming, and in New Zealand, natural linkages were first lost about 700 years ago with arrival of the Maori people. In the U.S. Northwest and Patagonia, the greatest landscape alteration occurred in the last 150 years with Euro-American settlement. Paleoecology is sometimes the best and only tool for evaluating the degree of landscape alteration and the extent to which landscapes retain natural components. Information on landscape-level history thus helps assess current ecological change, clarify management objectives, and define conservation strategies that seek to protect both natural and cultural elements.

Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains

Damage due to wind-storms and droughts is increasing in many temperate forests, yet little is known about the long-term roles of these key climatic factors in forest dynamics and in the carbon budget. The objective of this study was to estimate individual and coupled effects of droughts and wind-storms on adult tree mortality across a 31-year period in 115 managed, mixed coniferous forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains. For each stand, yearly mortality was inferred from management records, yearly drought from interpolated fields of monthly temperature, precipitation and soil water holding capacity, and wind-storms from interpolated fields of daily maximum wind speed. We performed a thorough model selection based on a leave-one-out cross-validation of the time series. We compared different critical wind speeds (CWSs) for damage, wind-storm, and stand variables and statistical models. We found that a model including stand characteristics, drought, and storm strength using a CWS of 25 ms^-1 performed the best across most stands. Using this best model, we found that drought increased damage risk only in the most southerly forests, and its effect is generally maintained for up to 2 years. Storm strength increased damage risk in all forests in a relatively uniform way. In some stands, we found positive interaction between drought and storm strength most likely because drought weakens trees, and they became more prone to stem breakage under wind-loading. In other stands, we found negative interaction between drought and storm strength, where excessive rain likely leads to soil water saturation making trees more susceptible to overturning in a wind-storm. Our results stress that temporal data are essential to make valid inferences about ecological impacts of disturbance events, and that making inferences about disturbance agents separately can be of limited validity. Under projected future climatic conditions, the direction and strength of these ecological interactions could also change.

Using Landsat time series for characterizing forest disturbance dynamics in the coupled human and natural systems of Central Europe

Remote sensing is a key information source for improving the spatiotemporal understanding of forest ecosystem dynamics. Yet, the mapping and attribution of forest change remains challenging, particularly in areas where a number of interacting disturbance agents simultaneously affect forest development. The forest ecosystems of Central Europe are coupled human and natural systems, with natural and human disturbances affecting forests both individually and in combination. To better understand the complex forest disturbance dynamics in such systems, we utilize 32-year Landsat time series to map forest disturbances in five sites across Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia. All sites consisted of a National Park and the surrounding forests, reflecting three management zones of different levels of human influence (managed, protected, strictly protected). This allowed for a comparison of spectral, temporal, and spatial disturbance patterns across a gradient from natural to coupled human and natural disturbances. Disturbance maps achieved overall accuracies ranging from 81% to 93%. Disturbance patches were generally small, with 95% of the disturbances being smaller than 10 ha. Disturbance rates ranged from 0.29% yr-1 to 0.95% yr-1, and differed substantially among management zones and study sites. Natural disturbances in strictly protected areas were longer in duration (median of 8 years) and slightly less variable in magnitude compared to human-dominated disturbances in managed forests (median duration of 1 year). However, temporal dynamics between natural and human-dominated disturbances showed strong synchrony, suggesting that disturbance peaks are driven by natural events affecting managed and unmanaged areas simultaneously. Our study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing for mapping forest disturbances in coupled human and natural systems, such as the forests of Central Europe. Yet, we also highlight the complexity of such systems in terms of agent attribution, as many natural disturbances are modified by management responding to them outside protected areas.

Impacts of salvage logging on biodiversity: a meta-analysis

Logging to "salvage" economic returns from forests affected by natural disturbances has become increasingly prevalent globally. Despite potential negative effects on biodiversity, salvage logging is often conducted, even in areas otherwise excluded from logging and reserved for nature conservation, inter alia because strategic priorities for post-disturbance management are widely lacking.A review of the existing literature revealed that most studies investigating the effects of salvage logging on biodiversity have been conducted less than 5 years following natural disturbances, and focused on non-saproxylic organisms.A meta-analysis across 24 species groups revealed that salvage logging significantly decreases numbers of species of eight taxonomic groups. Richness of dead wood dependent taxa (i.e. saproxylic organisms) decreased more strongly than richness of non-saproxylic taxa. In contrast, taxonomic groups typically associated with open habitats increased in the number of species after salvage logging.By analysing 134 original species abundance matrices, we demonstrate that salvage logging significantly alters community composition in 7 of 17 species groups, particularly affecting saproxylic assemblages.Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that salvage logging is not consistent with the management objectives of protected areas. Substantial changes, such as the retention of dead wood in naturally disturbed forests, are needed to support biodiversity. Future research should investigate the amount and spatio-temporal distribution of retained dead wood needed to maintain all components of biodiversity.