The utility of joinpoint regression for estimating population parameters given changes in population structure

Hepatocellular carcinoma national burden across different geographical regions in the United States between 2001 and 2020

BACKGROUND

While prior data showed an increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States, there are limited comprehensive and comparative data on the geographical variations of HCC trends in different demographic-specific populations.

AIM

To evaluate sex and age-specific incidence rates and time trends in different geographical regions in the United States.

METHODS

Age-adjusted HCC incidence rates were collected from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) database which covers approximately 98% of the population in the United States. HCC rates were stratified by sex, age, and geographical region. annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were estimated using Joinpoint Regression. A pairwise comparison was conducted between sex-specific trends.

RESULTS

There were 467344 patients diagnosed with HCC in the United States in the USCS database between 2001 and 2020. The rates and trends varied by geographical region. When looking at the West region (115336 patients), incidence rates of HCC were overall increasing and also increasing in older adults. However, when evaluating younger adults, HCC incidence rates decreased in men but not in women with a sex-specific absolute AAPC-difference of 2.15 (P = 0.005). When evaluating the Midwest region (84612 patients), similar results were seen. While incidence rates were increasing in the overall population and in older adults as well, they were decreasing in younger men but not in women with a sex-specific absolute AAPC-difference of 1.61 (P < 0.001). For the Northeast region (87259 patients), the analysis showed similar results with decreasing HCC incidence rates in younger men but not counterpart women (Sex-specific AAPC-difference = 3.26, P < 0.001). Lastly, when evaluating the south (180137 patients), the results were also decreasing in younger men but not in women (Sex-specific AAPC-difference = 2.55, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Nationwide analysis covering around 98% of the United States population shows an increasing incidence of HCC across all geographical regions, most notably in the South. While younger men experienced decreasing HCC incidence, younger women had a stable trend and this was noted across all regions as well. Our study offers insight into the epidemiology of HCC in different demographic groups across various United States geographical regions. While the reasons contributing to our findings are unclear, they can be related to sex and regional disparities in healthcare access and utilization. Future research is warranted to characterize the temporal change in HCC risk factors across different United States regions.

Temporal trends in prevalence of liver cancer and etiology-specific liver cancer from 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Liver cancer (LC) remains a major cause of cancer death worldwide. Grasping prevalence trends is key to informing strategies for control and prevention. We analyzed the global, regional and national trends in LC prevalence and its major causes from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained LC age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 and assessed trends using Joinpoint regression. LC cases were categorized into those due to hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), alcohol use, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other causes.

RESULTS

While the ASPR of LC has shown a global decrease, there are specific regions where an increase in ASPR has been observed, with the highest rates in America. HBV remained the leading cause of LC (41.45%) but significant increases occurred for HCV, alcohol use and NASH. Prevalence correlated with socioeconomic development. High-income countries had higher LC rates from HCV and alcohol but lower HBV-related LC. In high-income nations, LC prevalence climbs; the converse holds in middle- and low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a global ASPR decrease, LC due to HCV, NASH, and alcohol is rising. Prevention strategies must prioritize HBV vaccination, HCV treatment, and alcohol regulation.

IMPACT

The study informs targeted LC control policies and emphasizes the importance of continued monitoring and regional cooperation to combat LC.

Trends in marijuana and heavy alcohol use by cigarette smoking status among US adults: An analysis of the 2002-2019 NSDUH

BACKGROUND

Polysubstance use is associated with adverse health outcomes, yet little research has measured changes in polysubstance use. We aimed to 1) estimate trends in marijuana and heavy alcohol use by cigarette smoking and demographic subgroups, and 2) examine patient factors associated with concurrent use among adults who were smoking.

METHODS

We conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis of 687,225 non-institutionalized US adults ≥18 years from the 2002-2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Participants were stratified into current, former, and never smoking groups. Main outcomes were prevalence of heavy alcohol use, marijuana use, and concurrent use of both substances.

RESULTS

From 2002-2019, heavy alcohol use declined from 7.8 % to 6.4 %, marijuana use rose from 6.0 % to 11.8 %, and concurrent use of alcohol and marijuana remained stable. Among adults who were smoking from 2005 to 2019, higher education was associated with higher odds of heavy alcohol use, while older ages, female gender, non-White race/ethnicity, and government-provided health insurance were associated with lower odds. The odds of marijuana use decreased in females, older ages, and higher incomes while increasing in people with poorer health status, higher education, government-provided or no health insurance, and serious mental illness. Compared to White adults who were smoking, Black counterparts had higher odds of marijuana use (OR=1.23; 95 %CI: 1.15-1.29), while Hispanic (OR=0.68; 95 %CI: 0.63-0.72) and other racial/ethnic identities (OR=0.83; 95 %CI: 0.77-0.90) had lower odds.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests marijuana use might not be sensitive to changes in the use of tobacco and alcohol.

Global epidemiology of alcohol-associated liver disease in adolescents and young adults

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The objective of the study was to analyse the prevalence, incidence, and death of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) among adolescents and young adults globally, continentally, and nationally, focusing on trends over time.

METHODS

The study analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study between 2000 and 2019. It examined ALD's prevalence, incidence, and death in adolescents and young adults aged 15-29, segmented by region, nation, and sociodemographic index. The analysis utilised Joinpoint regression modelling to calculate the annual per cent change (APC) in the rate of these parameters over time.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 281,450 ALD prevalences, 18,930 incidences, and 3190 deaths among adolescents and young adults globally. From 2000 to 2019, the age-adjusted prevalence rate per 100,000 increased in the 25-29 age group (APC: +0.6%, p = 0.003), remained stable among ages 20-24 (p = 0.302) and ages 15-19 (p = 0.160). Prevalence increased significantly from age 15-19 to 20-24 (19-fold increase) and from age 20-24 to 25-29 (2.5-fold increase). ALD prevalence rates increased in all age groups in adolescents and young adults in Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean region. Around three-quarters of countries and territories experienced an increase in ALD incidence rates in young adults.

CONCLUSION

Over two decades, the burden of ALD among adolescents and young adults has increased globally. The study emphasises the importance of public health policies aimed at reducing alcohol consumption and preventing ALD among younger populations.

Patterns of immunotherapy utilization for non-small cell lung cancer in Texas pre- and post-regulatory approval

PURPOSE

Immunotherapy has shown remarkable benefits for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) since approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Texas, however, ranks below the national average in access to treatment for NSCLC. This retrospective cohort study assessed first-line immunotherapy treatment patterns and associated factors pre- and post-FDA approval in Texas.

METHODS

Patients ≥18 years diagnosed with NSCLC from the Texas Cancer Registry database (2011-2018) and were stratified into pre- and post-FDA approval era. The rates of immunotherapy utilization were examined, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) in immunotherapy utilization across patient subgroups was compared. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify associations of patient characteristics with immunotherapy utilization for patients with metastatic- and all-stage NSCLC.

RESULTS

A total of 13,501 and 9509 patients with NSCLC were identified in pre-post-approval periods, respectively. Post-approval, immunotherapy utilization increased from 1.7 to 13.0%, and AAPC from 54.8 to 82.7%. Pre-approval, patients living in a county with ≥20% of households below the poverty level were less likely to receive immunotherapy (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.61-0.94) while patients with private insurance were more likely to receive immunotherapy (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.10-2.23). Post-approval, socioeconomic disparities were more prominent (10-19.9 and ≥20% of households below the poverty level: OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.66-0.90 and OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.60-0.86, respectively). Patients with metastatic NSCLC showed similar patterns of socioeconomic disparities pre- and post-approval.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that patients' socioeconomic status hinders immunotherapy utilization for NSCLC in Texas. This emphasizes the need for state health policy reforms such as Medicaid expansion and tailored cancer care strategies.

Racial and ethnic disparities in gallbladder cancer: A two-decade analysis of incidence and mortality rates in the US

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is an aggressive malignancy that is usually diagnosed at a late stage. Prior data showed increasing incidence of GBC in the US. However, little is known about race/ethnic-specific incidence and mortality trends of GBC per stage at diagnosis. Therefore, we aimed to conduct a time-trend analysis of GBC incidence and mortality rates categorized by race/ethnicity and stage-at-diagnosis.

METHODS

Age-adjusted GBC incidence and mortality rates were calculated using SEER*Stat software from the United States Cancer Statistics database (covers ~98% of US population between 2001 and 2020) and NCHS (covers ~100% of the US population between 2000 and 2020) databases, respectively. Race/Ethnic groups were Non-Hispanic-White (NHW), Non-Hispanic-Black (NHB), Hispanic, Non-Hispanic-Asian/Pacific-Islander (NHAPI), and Non-Hispanic-American-Indian/Alaska-Native (NHAIAN). Stage-at-diagnoses were all stages, early, regional, and distant stages. Joinpoint regression was used to generate time-trends [annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC)] with parametric estimations and a two-sided t-test (p-value cut-off 0.05).

RESULTS

76,873 patients were diagnosed with GBC with decreasing incidence rates in all races/ethnicities except NHB who experienced an increasing trend between 2001 and 2014 (APC = 2.08, p < 0.01) and plateauing afterward (APC = -1.21, p = 0.31); (AAPC = 1.03, p = 0.03). Among early-stage tumors (9927 patients), incidence rates were decreasing only in Hispanic (AAPC = -4.24, p = 0.006) while stable in other races/ethnicities (NHW: AAPC = -2.61, p = 0.39; NHB: AAPC = -1.73, p = 0.36). For regional-stage tumors (29,690 patients), GBC incidence rates were decreasing only in NHW (AAPC = -1.61, p < 0.001) while stable in other races/ethnicities (NHB: AAPC = 0.73, p = 0.34; Hispanic: AAPC = -1.58, p = 0.24; NHAPI: AAPC = -1.22, p = 0.07). For distant-stage tumors (31,735 patients), incidence rates were increasing in NHB (AAPC = 2.72, p < 0.001), decreasing in Hispanic (AAPC = -0.64, p = 0.04), and stable in NHW (AAPC = 0.07, p = 0.84) and NHAPI (AAPC = 0.79, p = 0.13). There were 43,411 deaths attributed to GBC with decreasing mortality rates in all races/ethnicities except NHB who experienced a stable trend (AAPC = 0.25, p = 0.25).

CONCLUSION

Nationwide data over the last two decades show that NHB patients experienced increasing GBC incidence between 2001 and 2014 followed by stabilization of the rates. This increase was driven by late-stage tumors and occurred in the first decade. NHB also experienced non-improving GBC mortality, compared to other race and ethnic groups who had decreasing mortality. This can be due to lack of timely-access to healthcare leading to delayed diagnosis and worse outcomes. Future studies are warranted to investigate contributions to the revealed racial and ethnic disparities, especially in NHB, to improve early detection.

Trends in drug overdose deaths in Mexico (1999-2019). A national descriptive analysis and interstate comparison

BACKGROUND

We assess trends in overdose mortality rates in Mexico from 1999 to 2019 and identify the states with the highest overdose mortality rates over time.

METHODS

The analysis using mortality statistics examined deaths related to drug use. We estimated general overdose mortality rates at the national and state levels and calculated specific mortality rates associated with opioid and stimulant use using central rate estimation. We used joinpoint regression to analyse national and state-specific trends in overdose mortality from 1999 to 2019.

FINDINGS

Nationally, the general overdose mortality rate increased annually by 10.49 % (p < 0.01, CI=11.4-18.9) from 2015 to 2019. The northern states of Baja California and Chihuahua were the states with the higher annual increases (18.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=4.2-29.6; and 15.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=12.9-19.7, respectively). By substance type, the national opioid-related mortality rate increased by 29.82 % per year from 2014 to 2019 (p < 0.01; CI=20.1-40.3), compared with an annual decrease of 11.43 % in the previous period (2005-2014) (p < 0.01; CI=-14.7- 8.0). Baja California was the state with the highest rise in opioid-related mortality from 2013 to 2019, with an annual increase of 15.84 % (p < 0.01; CI=1.4-32.3). Stimulant-related mortality increased by 21.79 % per year since 2013 (p < 0.01; CI=16.9-26.9), but it was not possible to calculate state-level trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Drug-related mortality rates have increased in Mexico since 2015, particularly in the northern states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Sonora and Sinaloa. Improving harm reduction programmes and local surveillance of fatal and non-fatal overdoses is essential to address the silent escalation of overdose mortality.

Cannabis-related treatment demand at the eve of German cannabis legalization - a 20-years trend analysis

Post-2000, the prevalence of cannabis consumption has been rising internationally. This paper investigates whether cannabis-related treatment demand in German outpatient addiction care facilities (OACFs) has been following this trend. Treatment demand related to cannabis use disorder (CUD) for the period 2001 to 2021 was investigated using data from the nation-wide standardized German Addiction Care Statistical Service. Analyses covered all and first-time treatment admissions, demographics, and treatment outcomes. We identified years with significant changes in slope or direction of trends through joinpoint regression. Trends within the CUD client population were contrasted with trends among the entire OACF client population. CUD is the second-most common cause for OACF admissions in Germany. Between 2001 and 2021, the share of CUD-related cases among total OACF caseload increased from 7.1 to 19.9%, whereby the share of first-time treatment admissions declined from 79.6 to 55.6%. The share of CUD client population > 35 years almost tripled from 6.0 to 17.4%, that of female client population rose from 15.6 to 18.1%. From 2001 to 2007, the share of CUD-related treatments completed with improved symptomatology increased from 54.7 to 65.6%, followed by a marginal decline. CUD-related treatment demand is growing in Germany's OACFs, involving a client population that is increasingly older and more experienced with the addiction care system. As current intervention programmes mainly target adolescents and young adults who have been consuming cannabis only for a short time, adapting service offers to the changing client profiles appears paramount to improve treatment effectiveness.

Treatment trends for undescended testis and impact of guideline changes a medical health care analysis of orchidopexy and cryptorchidism in Germany between 2006 und 2020

BACKGROUND

The last decades revealed new scientific knowledge regarding the fertility and potential malignancy of undescended testis AQ2(UDT). Accordingly, many guidelines changed their recommendation concerning timing of therapy, with the goal of an earlier time of surgery.

METHODS

We analyzed the number of new diagnosis and performed surgeries in predefined age groups provided by the obligatory annual reports of German hospitals in the reimbursement.INFO"-tool between 2006 and 2020.

RESULTS

Overall, 124,741 cases were analyzed. We showed a slight increase in performed surgeries in the first year by 2% per year with a main increase till 2011, a constant number of surgeries between first and 4th year and a decrease of surgeries between 5 and 14th year of living with a main decrease till 2009 by 3% per year.

CONCLUSION

Even if our results illustrate an increasing adaption of the guideline's recommendation, there is still a significant number of patients who receive later treatment. More research about the reasons and circumstances for the latter is needed.

Induction of labor vs expectant management among low-risk patients with 1 prior cesarean delivery

BACKGROUND

Studies that have compared induction of labor in individuals with 1 prior cesarean delivery to expectant management have shown conflicting results.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between clinical outcomes and induction of labor at 39 weeks in a national sample of otherwise low-risk patients with 1 prior cesarean delivery.

STUDY DESIGN

This cross-sectional study analyzed 2016 to 2021 US Vital Statistics birth certificate data. Individuals with vertex, singleton pregnancies, and 1 prior cesarean delivery were included. Patients with prior vaginal deliveries, delivery before 39 weeks 0 days or after 42 weeks 6 days of gestation, and medical comorbidities were excluded. The primary exposure of interest was induction of labor at 39 weeks 0 days to 39 weeks 6 days compared to expectant management with delivery from 40 weeks 0 days to 42 weeks 6 days. The primary outcome was vaginal delivery. The main secondary outcomes were separate maternal and neonatal morbidity composites. The maternal morbidity composite included uterine rupture, operative vaginal delivery, peripartum hysterectomy, intensive care unit admission, and transfusion. The neonatal morbidity composite included neonatal intensive care unit admission, Apgar score less than 5 at 5 minutes, immediate ventilation, prolonged ventilation, and seizure or serious neurological dysfunction. Unadjusted and adjusted log binomial regression models accounting for demographic variables and the exposure of interest (induction vs expectant management) were performed. Results are presented as unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

From 2016 to 2021, a total of 198,797 individuals with vertex, singleton pregnancies, and 1 prior cesarean were included in the primary analysis. Of these individuals, 25,915 (13.0%) underwent induction of labor from 39 weeks 0 days to 39 weeks 6 days and 172,882 (87.0%) were expectantly managed with deliveries between 40 weeks 0 days and 42 weeks 6 days. In adjusted analyses, patients induced at 39 weeks were more likely to have a vaginal delivery when compared to those expectantly managed (38.0% vs 31.8%; adjusted risk ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.28, 1.36). Among those who had vaginal deliveries, induction of labor was associated with increased likelihood of operative vaginal delivery (11.1% vs 10.0; adjusted risk ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.07, 1.24). The maternal morbidity composite occurred in 0.9% of individuals in both the induction and expectant management groups (adjusted risk ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.79, 1.06). The rates of uterine rupture (0.3%), peripartum hysterectomy (0.04% vs 0.05%), and intensive care unit admission (0.1% vs 0.2%) were all relatively low and did not differ significantly between groups. There was also no significant difference in the neonatal morbidity composite between the induction and expectant management groups (7.3% vs 6.7%; adjusted risk ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.98, 1.09).

CONCLUSION

When compared to expectant management, elective induction of labor at 39 weeks in low-risk patients with 1 prior cesarean delivery was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of vaginal delivery with no difference in composite maternal and neonatal morbidity outcomes. Prospective studies are needed to better elucidate the risks and benefits of induction of labor in this patient population.

Addressing the Gap: Racial Disparities and Public Health Strategies in the Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

Background Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) represent the most common mesenchymal neoplasms of the gastrointestinal tract, arising from the interstitial cells of Cajal. These tumors bridge the nervous system and muscular layers of the gastrointestinal tract, playing a crucial role in the digestive process. The incidence of GISTs demonstrates notable variations across different racial and ethnic groups, underscoring the need for in-depth analysis to understand the interplay of genetic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors behind these disparities. Linear regression analysis is a pivotal statistical tool in such epidemiological studies, offering insights into the temporal dynamics of disease incidence and the impact of public health interventions. Methodology This investigation employed a detailed dataset from 2009 to 2020, documenting GIST incidences across Asian, African American, Hispanic, and White populations. A meticulous preprocessing routine prepared the dataset for analysis, which involved data cleaning, normalization of racial terminologies, and aggregation by year and race. Linear regression models and Pearson correlation coefficients were applied to analyze trends and correlations in GIST incidences across the different racial groups, emphasizing an understanding of temporal patterns and racial disparities in disease incidence. Results The study analyzed GIST cases among four racial groups, revealing a male predominance (53.19%) and an even distribution of cases across racial categories: Whites (27.66%), Hispanics (25.53%), African Americans (24.47%), and Asians (22.34%). Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (32.98%), followed by heart failure (28.72%). The linear regression analysis for Asians showed a decreasing trend in GIST incidences with a slope of -0.576, an R-squared value of 0.717, and a non-significant p-value of 0.153. A significant increasing trend was observed for Whites, with a slope of 0.581, an R-squared value of 0.971, and a p-value of 0.002. African Americans exhibited a moderate positive slope of 0.277 with an R-squared value of 0.470 and a p-value of 0.201, indicating a non-significant increase. Hispanics showed negligible change over time with a slope of -0.095, an R-squared value of 0.009, and a p-value of 0.879, suggesting no significant trend. Conclusions This study examines GIST incidences across racial groups, revealing significant disparities. Whites show an increasing trend (p = 0.002), while Asians display a decreasing trend (p = 0.153), with stable rates in African Americans and Hispanics. Such disparities suggest a complex interplay of genetics, environment, and socioeconomic factors, highlighting the need for targeted research and interventions that address these differences and the systemic inequalities influencing GIST outcomes.

Trends in Fatal Opioid-Related Overdose in American Indian and Alaska Native Communities, 1999-2021

INTRODUCTION

Opioid-related overdose mortality rates have increased sharply in the U.S. over the past two decades, and inequities across racial and ethnic groups have been documented. Opioid-related overdose trends among American Indian and Alaska Natives require further quantification and assessment.

METHODS

Observational, U.S. population-based registry data on opioid-related overdose mortality between 1999 and 2021 were extracted in 2023 using ICD-10 codes from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research multiple cause of death file by race, Hispanic ethnicity, sex, and age. Segmented time series analyses were conducted to estimate opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates among the American Indian and Alaska Native population between 1999 and 2021. Analyses were performed in 2023.

RESULTS

Two distinct time segments revealed significantly different opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates within the overall American Indian and Alaska Native population, from 0.36 per 100,000 (95% CI=0.32, 0.41) between 1999 and 2019 to 6.5 (95% CI=5.7, 7.31) between 2019 and 2021, with the most pronounced increase among those aged 24-44 years. Similar patterns were observed within the American Indian and Alaska Native population with Hispanic ethnicity, but the estimated growth rates were generally steeper across most age groups than across the overall American Indian and Alaska Native population. Patterns of opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates were similar between American Indian and Alaska Native females and males between 2019 and 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Sharp increases in opioid-related overdose mortality rates among American Indian and Alaska Native communities are evident by age and Hispanic ethnicity, highlighting the need for culturally sensitive fatal opioid-related overdose prevention, opioid use disorder treatment, and harm-reduction efforts. Future research should aim to understand the underlying factors contributing to these high mortality rates and employ interventions that leverage the strengths of American Indian and Alaska Native culture, including the strong sense of community.

The National Landscapes of Gastric Mucosa-Associated Lymphoid Tissue Lymphoma: Stable Trends in Black Populations and Late-Stage Tumors

BACKGROUND

Helicobacter pylori (H. Pylori) eradication has been the mainstream for preventing and treating gastric mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma. Prior data showed disparities in eradication rates of H. Pylori between different populations. This can potentially impact the occurrence of gastric MALT lymphoma. There are limited data on the incidence and mortality rates and trends of gastric MALT lymphoma in the US. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to conduct a time-trend analysis of gastric MALT lymphoma incidence and mortality rates in different populations.

METHODS

The incidence rates of gastric MALT lymphoma were calculated from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) database (which covers nearly 98% of the US population) between 2001-2020 and were age-adjusted to the standard 2000 US population using SEER*Stat software (version 8.4.3, national cancer institute "NCI"). Incidence-based mortality (IBM) rates, also age-adjusted to the standard 2000 US population, were calculated from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Tumor location was specified using ICD-O-3 codes C 160-C 169 with malignant behavior. Histopathology was specified using the ICD-O-3 code 9699. The rates were categorized by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and tumor stage at diagnosis. Age groups were older adults (aged 55 years or older) and younger adults (aged younger than 55 years). Race/ethnic groups included Non-Hispanic White (White), Non-Hispanic Black (Black), Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander (API), and Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN), as reported in the database. Stage at diagnosis included early stage (in situ and localized tumors) and late stage (regional and distant site tumors). Joinpoint Regression Software (version 5.0.2, NCI) using the weighted Bayesian Information Criteria method was used to generate time trends. Trends were reported as annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC). Parametric estimations were used with a two-sided t-test to evaluate the trends with a p-value cutoff at 0.05.

RESULTS

There were 21,625 patients diagnosed with gastric MALT lymphoma in the US between 2001 and 2020. Overall, incidence rates were significantly decreasing over the study period (AAPC = -1.93). This decrease was seen in males (AAPC = -1.67) and in females (AAPC = -1.66) (Figure). When categorized by age groups, older adults also experienced a significant decrease in gastric MALT lymphoma incidence rates (AAPC = -1.66). While this was also seen in younger adults, the rates were decreasing at a slower pace (AAPC = -1.38). When categorizing the trends by race/ethnicity, incidence rates were significantly decreasing in White (AAPC = -2.09), Hispanic (AAPC = -1.61), and API (AAPC = -3.92) populations. However, the rates were stable among Blacks. While early-stage tumors experienced a significant decrease (AAPC = -1.10), the rates were stable for late-stage tumors. When evaluating mortality, there were 11,036 patients whose death was attributed to gastric MALT lymphoma between 2000 and 2020. IBM rates were decreasing in males (AAPC = -1.47), older adults (AAPC = -1.55), Whites (AAPC = -1.23), Hispanics (AAPC = -1.73), APIs (AAPC = -2.30), and early-stage tumors (AAPC = -1.08). On the other hand, IBM rates were stable in females, younger adults, Blacks, and late-stage tumors.

DISCUSSION

An extensive nationwide data analysis encompassing nearly 98% of patients diagnosed with gastric MALT lymphoma in the US unveils a declining trend in the incidence of cancer overall over the past two decades. This decline is observed in both sexes and various age groups. When stratifying by race and ethnicity, this incidence has been decreasing in all populations except among Black individuals. While early-stage tumors have also demonstrated a significant decrease in incidence rates, late-stage tumors have shown no parallel decline. Mortality evaluation also revealed an improvement in most of the US population except among females, younger adults, Black individuals, and late-stage tumors. While the cause of our findings is unclear, it could be driven by disproportionate exposure to risk factors, including H. Pylori, and disparities in screening, management, and outcomes. Future studies are warranted to investigate factors contributing to worse outcomes of gastric MALT lymphoma, especially in the Black population.

Geographical Variations in Early Onset Colorectal Cancer in the United States between 2001 and 2020

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer-related death in the US. As early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) becomes more prevalent in the US, research attention has shifted towards identifying at-risk populations. Previous studies have highlighted the rising rate of early-onset adenocarcinoma (ADC) and neuroendocrine tumors (NET) in the US. However, data on geographical variations of EO-CRC are scarce. Hence, our study aims to analyze time trends in EO-CRC incidence rates across various US regions and to assess these trends by sex and histopathological subtypes (ADC and NET).

METHODS

We analyze data spanning from 2001 to 2020 from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) database, covering nearly 98% of the US population. Using SEER*Stat software version (8.4.2, NCI), we calculated EO-CRC incidence rates among adults aged 20-54 years, adjusting for the age standard 2000 US population. The rates were categorized by sex and US geographical regions into west, midwest, northeast, and south. Time trends, reported as annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC), were generated via Joinpoint Regression software (v.5.0.2, NCI) utilizing the weighted Bayesian Information Criteria "BIC" method to generate the best-fit trends with a two-sided p-value cutoff at 0.05. The rates were also stratified by histopathology into ADC and NET.

RESULTS

Between 2001 and 2020, a total of 514,875 individuals were diagnosed with early-onset CRC in the US, with 54.78% being men. Incidence rates and trends varied across geographical regions. In the western region (comprising 106,685 patients, 54.85% men), incidence rates significantly increased in both women (AAPC = 1.37, p < 0.001) and men (AAPC = 1.34, p < 0.001). Similarly, in the midwestern region (with 110,380 patients, 55.46% men), there were significant increases in incidence rates among women (AAPC = 1.06, p < 0.001) and men (AAPC = 1.35, p < 0.001). The northeastern region (with 94,758 patients, 54.53% men) also witnessed significant increases in incidence rates for both women (AAPC = 0.71, p < 0.001) and men (AAPC = 0.84, p < 0.001). In contrast, the southern region (with 203,052 patients, 54.48% men) experienced slower increases in incidence rates among both women and men (AAPC = 0.25, p < 0.05 in women; AAPC = 0.66, p < 0.05 in men). When stratified by histopathology, incidence rates for adenocarcinomas (ADC) increased in all regions, most notably in the west (AAPC = 1.45, p < 0.05), and least in the south (AAPC = 0.46, p < 0.05). Conversely, for neuroendocrine tumors (NET), while incidence rates increased similarly across all regions, the pace was notably faster compared to ADC, particularly in the west (AAPC = 3.26, p < 0.05) and slower in the south (AAPC = 2.24, p < 0.05) Discussion: Our analysis of nationwide US data spanning two decades and encompassing over half a million early-onset CRC patients, representing nearly 98% of the US population, highlights significant temporal variation in incidence rates across various geographical regions. The most substantial increases in incidence rates were observed in the west, while the least pronounced changes were noted in the south, affecting both men and women. These trends persisted across the main CRC histopathological subtypes, with NET exhibiting a notably swifter pace of increase compared with ADC. These findings hold important implications for public health strategies and underscore the need for targeted interventions to address the rising burden of early-onset CRC across different regions in the US.

Changing cannabis legislation in Canada and a longitudinal look at "regular" cannabis use in patients with eating disorders

Regular cannabis use (CU), defined as "weekly or more often", is associated with a number of negative mental health outcomes. In the last decade, Canada legalized first medical and then recreational CU. Despite higher prevalence in mental health populations, little research has documented changes in frequency of CU with progressive legalization of cannabis. This study examined rates of CU in a sample of 843 treatment-seeking patients with eating disorders (ED) in an outpatient setting between 2004 and 2020. Across ED diagnoses, segmented regression indicated a significant break-point in regular CU in 2014, commensurate with the relaxation of medical cannabis laws. Regular CU increased from 4.9 % to 23.7 % from 2014 to 2020; well above the stable 6 % found in the general population. No significant break-point was observed in either alcohol or illicit substance use over the same time period. Significant increases in regular CU were found in patients with anorexia nervosa and binge eating disorder, while regular use remained stable in patients with bulimia nervosa. Comorbid psychiatric diagnoses did not increase odds of regular CU. Findings suggest certain patient groups with mental illness may be at risk of engaging in high frequency use in the context of legislation implying medical benefits of cannabis.

Temporal trends in prevalence and disability of chronic kidney disease caused by specific etiologies: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of disability in CKD is high. In this context the aim of the present study was to assess the  temporal trends of prevalence and disability progression for chronic kidney disease (CKD) caused by specific etiologies.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, we examined the age-standardized rates of CKD prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years for different etiologies, including Type 1/2 diabetes mellitus (T1DM/T2DM), glomerulonephritis, and hypertension. We also calculated the average annual percentage changes to assess trends. Additionally, we utilized the joinpoint regression model to identify significant shifts over time.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global prevalence of CKD due to various etiologies exhibited an overall increasing trend, albeit with fluctuations. Notably, CKD due to T1DM, glomerulonephritis, and hypertension consistently demonstrated a significant upward trend across all continents, while the prevalence of CKD due to T2DM varied across continents. In terms of disability-adjusted life-years, CKD due to T2DM and hypertension exhibited a significant rising trend over the past 30 years. However, changes in age standardized disability-adjusted life-years for CKD due to different etiologies were not consistent across continents, with an upward trend observed in The Americas and a contrasting trend in Asia. Furthermore, both age-standardized prevalence rate and age standardized disability-adjusted life-year trends for CKD varied significantly across 204 countries and territories. Additionally, a negative association was observed between the Socio-demographic Index and the disability progression of CKD.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence and disability burden of CKD caused by specific etiologies show substantial heterogeneity worldwide, highlighting significant disparities in the distribution of CKD. It is crucial to implement geographic and personalized strategies in different regions to alleviate the burden of CKD effectively.

Trends in Attempted Vaginal Delivery among Pregnancies Complicated by Gastroschisis, 2014 to 2020

OBJECTIVE

Gastroschisis is a full-thickness congenital defect of the abdominal wall through which intestines and other organs may herniate. In a prior analysis, attempted vaginal delivery with fetal gastroschisis appeared to increase through 2013, although cesarean delivery remained common. The objective of this analysis was to update current trends in attempted vaginal birth among pregnancies complicated by gastroschisis.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed an updated cross-sectional analysis of live births from 2014 and 2020 using data from the U.S. National Vital Statistics System and evaluated trends in attempted vaginal deliveries among births with gastroschisis. Trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression. We constructed logistic regression models to evaluate the association between demographic and clinical variables and attempted vaginal delivery in the setting of gastroschisis.

RESULTS

Among 5,355 deliveries with gastroschisis meeting inclusion criteria, attempted vaginal delivery increased significantly from 68.9% to 75.1%, an average annual percent change of 1.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8-2.5). Among gastroschisis-complicated pregnancies, patients 35 to 39 years old (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37-0.79) and Hispanic race/ethnicity (aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.58-0.62) were at lower likelihood of attempted vaginal delivery in adjusted analyses.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that vaginal delivery continues to increase in the setting of gastroschisis. Further reduction of surgical delivery for this fetal defect may be possible.

KEY POINTS

· Vaginal deliveries increased among gastroschisis pregnancies.. · Hispanic patients were less likely to attempt vaginal delivery.. · Some gastroschisis pregnancies still deliver surgically..

Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis Mortality Rates Are Disproportionately Increasing in Younger Women in the United States Between 2000-2020

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous studies show that mortality from chronic liver disease (CLD) and cirrhosis is increasing in the United States. However, there are limited data on sex-specific mortality trends by age, race, and geographical location. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive time-trend analysis of liver disease-related mortality rates in the National Center of Health Statistics (NCHS) database.

METHODS

CLD and cirrhosis mortality rates between 20002020 (age-adjusted to the 2000 standard U.S. population) were collected from the NCHS database and categorized by sex and age into older adults (≥55 years) and younger adults (<55 years), race (Non-Hispanic-White, Non-Hispanic-Black, Hispanic, Non-Hispanic-American-Indian/Alaska-Native, and Non-Hispanic-Asian/Pacific-Islander), U.S. state, and cirrhosis etiology. Time trends, annual percentage change (APC), and average APC (AAPC) were estimated using Joinpoint Regression using Monte Carlo permutation analysis. We used tests for parallelism and identicalness for sex-specific pairwise comparisons of mortality trends (two-sided P value cutoff = .05).

RESULTS

Between 20002020, there were 716,651 deaths attributed to CLD and cirrhosis in the U.S. (35.68% women). In the overall population and in older adults, CLD and cirrhosis-related mortality rates were increasing similarly in men and women. However, in younger adults (246,149 deaths, 32.72% women), the rate of increase was greater in women compared with men (AAPC = 3.04 vs 1.08, AAPC-difference = 1.96; P < .001), with non-identical non-parallel data (P values < .001). The disparity was driven by Non-Hispanic-White (AAPC = 4.51 vs 1.79, AAPC-difference = 2.71; P < .001) and Hispanic (AAPC = 1.89 vs -0.65, AAPC-difference = 2.54; P = .001) individuals. The disparity varied between U.S. states and was seen in 16 states, mostly in West Virginia (AAPC = 4.96 vs 0.88, AAPC-difference = 4.08; P < .001) and Pennsylvania (AAPC = 2.81 vs -1.02, AAPC-difference = 3.84; P < .001). Etiology-specific analysis did not show significant sex disparity in younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates due to CLD and cirrhosis in the U.S. are increasing disproportionately in younger women. This finding was driven by higher rates in Non-Hispanic White and Hispanic individuals, with variation between U.S. states. Future studies are warranted to identify the reasons for these trends with the ultimate goal of improving outcomes.

Young-onset chronic kidney disease in Mexico: Secondary analysis of global burden of disease study, 1990-2019

OBJECTIVE

To report the burden of young-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Mexico from 1990 to 2019, and to assess the association between young-onset CKD burden with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ).

METHODS

Secondary analysis of data using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by sex, age groups, states, and subcauses. Mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), were obtained.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the young-onset CKD mortality rate increased by 87.3% (126.3% for men and 48.1% for women). In 2019, this rate was highest in Tlaxcala, Estado de México, Puebla, Veracruz, Jalisco, and Guanajuato (all above 8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants); Sinaloa and Quintana Roo had the lowest mortality rates (under 3.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). While men had a higher rate of YLL, women were more likely to present YLD due to CKD. In 1990 there was a negative and statistically significant correlation between the HAQ Index and the young-onset CKD DALY rate.

CONCLUSIONS

In the last 30 years, the burden of early-onset chronic CKD has had an unprecedented increase among the Mexican population, compromising the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals. This will be unattainable if actions to promote healthy lifestyles and prevent kidney disease are not immediately established and articulated, starting with the youngest age groups.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence and Mortality in the USA by Sex, Age, and Race: A Nationwide Analysis of Two Decades

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

While the incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are increasing, there are limited comprehensive data on demographic-specific incidence and mortality trends in the USA. We aimed to evaluate recent trends in HCC incidence and mortality among different demographic groups in the USA.

METHODS

Age-adjusted HCC incidence rates were calculated from the Centers for Disease Control's United States Cancer Statistics database, which combines incidence data on newly diagnosed cancer cases and covers approximately 98% of the population in the USA. Additionally, age-adjusted HCC mortality rates were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control's National Center for Health Statistics database, which offers comprehensive coverage spanning nearly 100% of deaths attributed to HCC in the USA. Rates were stratified by sex, age (older [≥55 years] and younger [<55 years] adults), race and ethnicity (Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander, and Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native), and tumor stage at diagnosis (early and late). Annual and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using joinpoint regression. A sex-specific pairwise comparison was conducted.

RESULTS

Between 2001 and 2020, there were 467,346 patients diagnosed with HCC (26.0% women), with increasing incidence in both sexes without significant difference (p=0.65). In younger adults (78,169 patients), the incidence decreased in men but not in women (AAPC difference=-2.39, p=0.002). This was seen in various racial and ethnic groups, mostly driven by early-stage tumors (AAPC difference=-2.65, p=0.02). There were 329,973 deaths attributed to HCC between 2000 and 2020 (28.4% women). In younger adults (43,093 deaths), mortality decreased in men at a greater rate than in women (AAPC difference=1.61, p=0.007). This was seen in various racial and ethnic groups, most notably in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Natives (AAPC difference=-4.51, p=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Nationwide USA data, covering nearly all HCC cases, show an increasing incidence and mortality over the last two decades. In younger adults, there was a decreasing incidence in men but not in women, due to early-stage tumors. Mortality improved in younger men at a greater rate than in women, especially in Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Natives. Future studies are warranted to identify the risk factors associated with the occurrence and outcomes of HCC in demographic-specific populations, especially younger women.

Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: Are Neuroendocrine Tumors or Adenocarcinomas the Culprit? Analysis of the Largest U.S. Cancer Incidence Database, 2001-2020

(1) Background: While prior data showed an increasing incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in young adults, the contribution of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) to this trend is not well studied. Therefore, we conducted a comparative analysis of the incidence rates and time trends of colorectal ADC and NETs in young adults (aged 24-54) using the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) database. (2) Methods: Age-adjusted CRC incidence rates between 2001 and 2020 were calculated and categorized by sex, histopathology, and stage at diagnosis. Annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were computed via joinpoint regression utilizing weighted Bayesian information criteria to generate the simplest trend. Pairwise comparative analysis of ADC and NETs was conducted using tests of identicalness and parallelism. (3) Results: In this study, 514,875 patients were diagnosed with early-onset-CRC between 2001 and 2020 (54.8% men). While CRC incidence was significantly increased, including both ADC (448,670 patients) and NETs (36,205 patients), a significantly greater increase was seen for NETs (AAPC = 2.65) compared to ADC (AAPC = 0.91), with AAPC difference = 1.73 (p = 0.01) and non-identical non-parallel trends (p-values < 0.001). This was most notable in males (AAPC difference = 1.81, p = 0.03) and for early-stage tumors (AAPC difference = 3.56, p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: Our study, covering ~98% of the U.S. population provides the first comparative analysis of early-onset CRC histopathological subtypes, showing that the rate of increase of NETs in young adults is much greater than that of ADC. Given that patients with NETs with malignant behavior can experience significant mortality, our findings are importance, highlighting the rapidly increasing NET incidence in young adults and encouraging early screening that can improve outcomes.

Temporal trends of antidepressant utilization patterns in children and adolescents in Hong Kong: A 14-year population-based study with joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

There is limited research on real-world antidepressant utilization patterns in children and adolescents, particularly in non-western countries. We aimed to examine temporal trends of antidepressant prescribing practice among Chinese children and adolescents in Hong Kong over 14-year period.

METHODS

This population-based study identified 9566 patients aged 5-17 years who had redeemed at least one antidepressant prescription within 2005-2018, using data from health-record database of Hong Kong public healthcare services. We calculated annual prescription rates (per 1000 persons) for any antidepressant, antidepressant drug classes, and individual antidepressants. Joinpoint-regression analyses were performed to assess temporal antidepressant prescription trends, quantified by average annual-percent-change (AAPC), with 95 % confidence-intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Overall antidepressant prescription rate significantly increased over time (AAPC: 7.30 [95 % CI: 6.70-7.90]), from 3.883 in 2005 to 9.916 in 2018. The use of selective-serotonin-reuptake-inhibitors (SSRIs), serotonin-norepinephrine-reuptake-inhibitors (SNRIs), and other antidepressants significantly increased over 14 years, while tricyclic-antidepressants remained stable. SSRI represented the most commonly-prescribed drug class. Fluoxetine and sertraline constituted the two most frequently-prescribed individual antidepressants, while desvenlafaxine (AAPC: 55.68 [30.74-85.39]) and bupropion (AAPC: 35.28 [23.68-47.98]) exhibited the sharpest increase in prescription rates over the study period.

LIMITATIONS

Medication adherence could not be assessed and actual drug use may be overestimated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results affirm a significant rising trend of antidepressant prescriptions among Chinese children and adolescents over time. All antidepressant drug-classes, except TCA, demonstrated significantly increased use, with SSRI being the most frequently-prescribed drug class. Future investigation should clarify indications, hence off-label use, of antidepressant initiation in this vulnerable population.

The burden of type 2 diabetes in adolescents and young adults in Mexico: analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 to 2019

Purpose

The aim was to analyze the findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD-2019) study on type-2 diabetes in Mexico's adolescents and young adults, at a national and subnational scale from 1990 to 2019, and to assess its association with the socio-demographic, and the healthcare access and quality indices.

Methods

Following the GBD-2019 study, young-onset type 2 diabetes mortality, premature mortality, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are reported.

Results

A significant increase in the overall number of deaths attributed to young-onset T2D was found. There was a non-significant decrease in mortality rates for both sexes across most age groups. DALYs in men were greater than that in women, with almost half attributed to premature death in males, while disability accounted for two thirds of DALYs in females. The DALY rate increased significantly in most states. Premature mortality decreased, while disability increased across all age-groups, and in all states for both sexes.

Conclusion

The surge in disability corresponded to the upsurge in obesity and overweight rates in Mexico among the younger population. This happened despite improvements in socio-economic status and healthcare access in Mexico which underscores the need for diabetes education in the public health sector.

The Incidence of Rectal Neuroendocrine Tumors Is Increasing in Younger Adults in the US, 2001-2020

Prior non-comparative data showed increasing incidence of rectal neuroendocrine tumors (RNET) in the US. We aimed to evaluate age-specific RNET incidence rates and time-trends in demographic- and tumor-specific populations. The RNET age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) database between 2001 and 2020. The population was stratified by age into older (≥55 years) and younger adults (<55 years), as well as by sex and race. The tumors were categorized by their stage at diagnosis into early and late. The annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were estimated using joinpoint regression and Monte Carlo permutation analysis. Pairwise comparison assessed for parallelism and coincidence. There were 59,846 patients diagnosed with RNET between 2001 and 2020 (50.3% women). Overall, the RNET incidence rates during this period were increasing in younger but not older adults (AAPC = 3.12 vs. -1.10; AAPC difference = 4.22, p < 0.001), with non-identical non-parallel data (p-values < 0.001). While similar results were seen in men, a greater age-specific difference was noted in women (AAPC = 3.31 vs. -1.10; AAPC difference = 4.41, p = 0.003). The difference between younger and older adults was seen in non-Hispanic White (AAPC-difference = 4.89; p < 0.001) and non-Hispanic Black (AAPC-difference = 3.33; p = 0.03) patients, and, in most years, among Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander patients, and it was mostly driven by early-stage tumors (AAPC-difference = 3.93; p < 0.001). The nationwide data show a significantly increasing RNET incidence in younger adults, most notably in younger women and in early-stage tumors, seen in various races. Future studies should evaluate RNET risk factors and outcomes in demographic-specific populations.

Mining Google Trends data for nowcasting and forecasting colorectal cancer (CRC) prevalence

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most prevalent and second most lethal form of cancer in the world. Consequently, CRC cancer prevalence projections are essential for assessing the future burden of the disease, planning resource allocation, and developing service delivery strategies, as well as for grasping the shifting environment of cancer risk factors. However, unlike cancer incidence and mortality rates, national and international agencies do not routinely issue projections for cancer prevalence. Moreover, the limited or even nonexistent cancer statistics for large portions of the world, along with the high heterogeneity among world nations, further complicate the task of producing timely and accurate CRC prevalence projections. In this situation, population interest, as shown by Internet searches, can be very important for improving cancer statistics and, in the long run, for helping cancer research.

Methods

This study aims to model, nowcast and forecast the CRC prevalence at the global level using a three-step framework that incorporates three well-established univariate statistical and machine-learning models. First, data mining is performed to evaluate the relevancy of Google Trends (GT) data as a surrogate for the number of CRC survivors. The results demonstrate that population web-search interest in the term "colonoscopy" is the most reliable indicator to nowcast CRC disease prevalence. Then, various statistical and machine-learning models, including ARIMA, ETS, and FNNAR, are trained and tested using relevant GT time series. Finally, the updated monthly query series spanning 2004-2022 and the best forecasting model in terms of out-of-sample forecasting ability (i.e., the neural network autoregression) are utilized to generate point forecasts up to 2025.

Results

Results show that the number of people with colorectal cancer will continue to rise over the next 24 months. This in turn emphasizes the urgency for public policies aimed at reducing the population's exposure to the principal modifiable risk factors, such as lifestyle and nutrition. In addition, given the major drop in population interest in CRC during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the findings suggest that public health authorities should implement measures to increase cancer screening rates during pandemics. This in turn would deliver positive externalities, including the mitigation of the global burden and the enhancement of the quality of official statistics.

Trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality in the United States, 1999-2020

OBJECTIVES

The incidence of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) has been declining in the United States (US) in recent years. However, little is known about the latest trends in NPC mortality in the US population. This study aimed to examine the trends in NPC mortality rate by age, sex, race and ethnicity and US Census Region from 1999 to 2020.

METHODS

Mortality data were extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database. Decedents whose cause of death was NPC were identified using the International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision: C11.0-C11.9. Trends in age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) from NPC were assessed using a joinpoint regression model. Annual Percentage Changes (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Changes were examined overall and by age, sex, race and ethnicity and census region.

RESULTS

From 1999 through 2020, a total of 14 534 NPC deaths were recorded in the US (AAMR = 0.2 per 100 000; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.2). Overall trends remained stationary throughout the study period. Since 2006, recent trends declined by 6.1% per year (95% CI: -8.4, -3.7) among Non-Hispanic Whites, and by 2.7% per year among Non-Hispanic Blacks, Asians/Pacific Islanders and Hispanics. Trends either stabilized or declined by sex, age and US Census Region. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to decedents aged 65 years and above.

CONCLUSIONS

Stationary or declining trends in NPC mortality could be due to the falling incidence of the disease and/or advances in medical diagnosis and treatment. Considering the enigmatic nature of NPC, future studies should explore the genetic and sociodemographic factors associated with the trends reported in this study.

Family violence homicide rates: a state-wide comparison of three data sources in Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

Family violence homicide (FVH) is a major public health and social problem in Australia. FVH trend rates are key outcomes that determine the effectiveness of current management practices and policy directions. Data source-related methodological problems affect FVH research and policy and the reliable measurement of homicide trends.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine data reliability and temporal trends of Victorian FVH rates and sex and relationship patterns.

METHOD

FVH rates per 100,000 persons in Victoria were compared between the National Coronial Information System (NCIS), Coroners Court of Victoria (CCoV) Homicide Register, and the National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP). Trends for 2001-2017 were analysed using Joinpoint regression. Crude rates were determined by sex and relationship categories using annual frequencies and Australian Bureau of Statistics population estimates.

RESULTS

NCIS closed FVH cases totalled 360, and an apparent downward trend in the FVH rate was identified. However, CCoV and NHMP rates trended upwards. While NCIS and CCoV were case-based, NHMP was incident-based, contributing to rate variations. The NCIS-derived trend was particularly impacted by unavailable case data, potential coding errors and entry backlog. Neither CCoV nor NHMP provided victim-age in their public domain data to enable age-adjusted rate comparison.

CONCLUSION

Current datasets have limitations for FVH trend determination; most notably lag times for NCIS data.

IMPLICATIONS

This study identified an indicative upward trend in FVH rates in Victoria, suggesting insufficiency of current management and policy settings for its prevention and control.

Rotavirus vaccination as a public health strategy to reduce the burden of hospitalization: The field experience of Italy (2008-2018)

Rotavirus (RV) infection is a leading cause of severe diarrhea among children younger than 5 years old and a considerable cause of RV gastroenteritis (RVGE) hospitalization. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination in Italy in the reduction of the burden of RV-related disease, estimating the relation between vaccination coverage and hospitalization rates. RVGE-related hospitalizations that occurred in Italy from 2008 to 2018 among children aged 0-35 months were assessed by consulting the Hospital Discharge Record database and including records whose ICD-9-CM diagnosis code was 008.61 in the first or in any diagnosis position. In the 2008-2018 period, a total of 17 535 791 at-risk person-years were considered and 74 211 (423.2 cases × 100 000 per year) RVGE hospitalizations were observed. Higher hospitalization rates occurred in males (456.6 vs. 387.9 × 100 000 per year) and in children aged 1 year (507.8 × 100 000 per year). Poisson regression analysis showed a decrease of -1.25% in hospitalization rates (-1.19% to -1.31%, p < 0.001) per unit increase in vaccination coverage. This is the first study that correlates hospitalization rate reduction with a percentage increase in vaccination coverage. Our findings strongly support RV vaccination as an effective public health strategy for reducing RVGE-related hospitalizations.

Trends in Pneumococcal and Bacterial Meningitis in Brazil from 2007 to 2019

The pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) was introduced into the Brazilian Childhood National Immunization Program in 2010; however, universal pneumococcal vaccination for older adults has not been implemented yet. Our aim is to evaluate the trends in pneumococcal meningitis incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) across all age groups from 2007 to 2019 using data from the National Surveillance System. The pre-PCV (2007-2009) and post-PCV (2011-2019) periods were compared; changes in incidence and CFR were assessed by joinpoint regression. Additional analyses of bacterial meningitis were performed to compare the patterns and trends. Over the 13-year period, 81,203 and 13,837 cases were classified as bacterial and pneumococcal meningitis, respectively. S. pneumoniae was the main etiological agent of bacterial meningitis in adults aged ≥50 years and the most lethal in all age groups. In the post-PCV period, a 56.5% reduction in the average incidence was seen in pneumococcal meningitis in the pediatric population. In contrast, there was an increasing trend among adults. The CFR for pneumococcal and bacterial meningitis remained stable in most age groups during the study period. These findings highlight the value of expanding pneumococcal vaccination policies, including vaccines that provide better indirect protection from children to adults and broadening vaccination to older adults.

Management of metastatic melanoma in Texas: disparities in the utilization of immunotherapy following the regulatory approval of immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

The utilization of modern-immunotherapies, notably immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), has increased markedly in patients with metastatic melanoma over the past decade and are recommended as standard treatment. Given their increasing adoption in routine care for melanoma, understanding patient access to immunotherapy and patterns of its use in Texas is crucial as it remains one of the few states without Medicaid expansion and with high rates of the uninsured population. The objectives of this study were to examine the trend in the utilization of immunotherapy and to determine factors associated with immunotherapy utilization among patients with metastatic melanoma in the era of ICIs in Texas.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Texas Cancer Registry (TCR) database. The cohort comprised of adult (≥ 18 years) patients with metastatic melanoma diagnosed between June 2011 and December 2018. The trend in immunotherapy utilization was assessed by determining the proportion of patients receiving immunotherapy each year. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in immunotherapy utilization was assessed using joinpoint regression, while multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association between patient characteristics and immunotherapy receipt.

RESULTS

A total of 1,795 adult patients with metastatic melanoma were identified from the TCR. Immunotherapy utilization was higher among younger patients, those with no comorbidities, and patients with private insurance. Multivariable analysis showed that the likelihood of receipt of immunotherapy decreased with older age [(adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR), 0.92; 95% CI, 0.89- 0.93, p = 0.001], living in high poverty neighborhood (aOR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.44 - 0.66, p < 0.0001), having Medicaid (aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.44 - 0.73, p = 0.02), being uninsured (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.31 - 0.64, p = 0.01), and having comorbidities (CCI score 1: aOR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.34 - 0.71, p = 0.003; CCI score ≥ 2: aOR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.16 - 0.56, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study identified sociodemographic and socioeconomic disparities in access to immunotherapy in Texas, highlighting the need for policies such as Medicaid expansion that would increase equitable access to this innovative therapy.

Temporal patterns, spatial risks, and characteristics of tegumentary leishmaniasis in Brazil in the first twenty years of the 21st Century

BACKGROUND

Tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL) is a significant public health issue in Brazil. The present ecological study describes the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of TL cases reported in the country, and analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of the incidences and risks of occurrence across the five geopolitical regions and 27 federative units.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Data regarding new cases of TL notified between 2001 and 2020 were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint and spatial and temporal generalized additive models were used to establish trends in the evolution of TL during the target period. The incidence rate for the entire period was 226.41 cases/100,000 inhabitants. All regions of Brazil showed trends of decreasing incidence rates, albeit with fluctuations at specific times, with the exception of the Southeast where rates have increased since 2014, most particularly in Minas Gerais state. The disease was concentrated predominantly in the North region, with Acre state leading the incidence rank in the whole country, followed by Mato Grosso (Midwest), Maranhão and Bahia (Northeast) states. The spatial distribution of the risk of TL occurrence in relation to the annual averages was relatively stable throughout the period. The cutaneous form of TL was predominant and cases most frequently occurred in rural areas and among men of working age. The ages of individuals contracting TL tended to increase during the time series. Finally, the proportion of confirmations by laboratory tests was lower in the Northeast.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

TL shows a declining trend in Brazil, but its widespread occurrence and the presence of areas with increasing incidence rates demonstrate the persistent relevance of this disease and the need for constant monitoring. Our findings reinforce the importance of temporal and spatial tools in epidemiologic surveillance routines and are valuable for targeting preventive and control actions.

Temporal and spatial analyses of colorectal cancer incidence in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a cross-sectional study

We aimed to explore the district-level temporal dynamics and sub-district level geographical variations of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province. We performed a cross-sectional study using data from the Yogyakarta population-based cancer registry (PBCR) comprised of 1,593 CRC cases diagnosed in 2008-2019. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) were determined using 2014 population data. The temporal trend and geographical distribution of cases were analysed using joinpoint regression and Moran's I statistics. During 2008-2019, CRC incidence increased by 13.44% annually. Joinpoints were identified in 2014 and 2017, which were also the periods when annual percentage change (APC) was the highest throughout the observation periods (18.84). Significant APC changes were observed in all districts, with the highest in Kota Yogyakarta (15.57). The ASR of CRC incidence per 100,000 person- years was 7.03 in Sleman, 9.20 in Kota Yogyakarta, and 7.07 in Bantul district. We found a regional variation of CRC ASR with a concentrated pattern of hotspots in the central sub-districts of the catchment areas and a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of CRC incidence rates in the province (I=0.581, p<0.001). The analysis identified four high-high clusters sub-districts in the central catchment areas. This is the first Indonesian study reported from PBCR data, showing an increased annual CRC incidence during an extensive observation period in the Yogyakarta region. A heterogeneous distribution map of CRC incidence is included. These findings may serve as basis for CRC screening implementation and healthcare services improvement.

Temporality of body mass index, blood tests, comorbidities and medication use as early markers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC): a nested case-control study

OBJECTIVE

Prior studies identified clinical factors associated with increased risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, little is known regarding their time-varying nature, which could inform earlier diagnosis. This study assessed temporality of body mass index (BMI), blood-based markers, comorbidities and medication use with PDAC risk .

DESIGN

We performed a population-based nested case-control study of 28 137 PDAC cases and 261 219 matched-controls in England. We described the associations of biomarkers with risk of PDAC using fractional polynomials and 5-year time trends using joinpoint regression. Associations with comorbidities and medication use were evaluated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Risk of PDAC increased with raised HbA1c, liver markers, white blood cell and platelets, while following a U-shaped relationship for BMI and haemoglobin. Five-year trends showed biphasic BMI decrease and HbA1c increase prior to PDAC; early-gradual changes 2-3 years prior, followed by late-rapid changes 1-2 years prior. Liver markers and blood counts (white blood cell, platelets) showed monophasic rapid-increase approximately 1 year prior. Recent diagnosis of pancreatic cyst, pancreatitis, type 2 diabetes and initiation of certain glucose-lowering and acid-regulating therapies were associated with highest risk of PDAC.

CONCLUSION

Risk of PDAC increased with raised HbA1c, liver markers, white blood cell and platelets, while followed a U-shaped relationship for BMI and haemoglobin. BMI and HbA1c derange biphasically approximately 3 years prior while liver markers and blood counts (white blood cell, platelets) derange monophasically approximately 1 year prior to PDAC. Profiling these in combination with their temporality could inform earlier PDAC diagnosis.

Postpartum stroke trends, risk factors, and associated adverse outcomes

BACKGROUND

Management of postpartum stroke has been the focus of several quality improvement efforts in the past decade. However, there is little recent national trends data for postpartum stroke readmissions.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine trends, risk factors, and complications associated with postpartum stroke readmission.

STUDY DESIGN

The 2013 to 2019 Nationwide Readmissions Database was used to perform a retrospective cohort study that evaluated the risk for readmission for stroke within 60 days of delivery hospitalization discharge. Temporal trends in readmissions were analyzed using the National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint Regression Program to estimate the average annual percent change with 95% confidence intervals. Stratified trends were analyzed for hemorrhage stroke, ischemic stroke, and stroke readmissions at 1 to 10, 11 to 30, and 31 to 60 days after delivery discharge. Risk factors for stroke were analyzed using unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals as measures of association. The risk for stroke complications, including mechanical ventilation, seizures, death, and a prolonged stay ≥14 days, was analyzed.

RESULTS

Of an estimated 21,754,603 delivery hospitalizations, 5006 were complicated by a 60-day postpartum readmission with a diagnosis of stroke. The average annual percent change for all stroke readmissions over the study period was not significant (average annual percent change, 0.1%; 95% confidence interval, -2.2% to 2.4%). When the trends in readmission for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were analyzed, the results were similar, as were the stratified analyses by readmission timing. Risk factors associated with increased odds included superimposed preeclampsia (odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.9-5.9), preeclampsia with severe features (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-4.4), maternal cardiac disease (odds ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-3.7), chronic kidney disease (odds ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-7.5), and lupus (odds ratio, 7.0; 95% confidence interval, 4.9-10.2). Risk was retained in adjusted analyses. Common stroke-related complications included a prolonged hospital stay ≥14 days (12.1 per 1000 stroke-related readmissions), seizures (9.9 per 1000 stroke-related readmissions), and mechanical ventilation (6.6 per 1000 stroke-related readmissions).

CONCLUSION

This analysis of nationally representative data demonstrated no change in the rate of 60-day postpartum hospitalizations for stroke from 2013 to 2019. Further clinical research is indicated to optimize risk reduction for stroke after delivery hospitalization discharge.

Violence against Women during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico

This study measured the prevalence of cases of domestic violence against women and some associated factors during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. Data were collected through a remote survey during 2020. The sample included 47,819 women aged 15 years and older. Jointpoint regression and logistic regression models were used. The prevalence of violence was 11.5%, which decreased in July and subsequently increased. The associated factors were being unemployed (OR = 2.01; 95%CI 1.89-2.16); being partially and totally quarantined (OR = 1.58; 95%CI 1.43-1.75 and OR = 1.47; 95%CI 1.32-1.63); being a caregiver of children; being a caregiver of elderly and/or suffering from a chronic illness (OR = 1.27; 95%CI 1.19-1.36; OR = 1.42; 95%CI 1.33-1.53; OR = 1.59; 95%CI 1.47-1.73); losing a family member to COVID-19 (OR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.13-1.41); and binge drinking (OR = 1.94; 95%CI 1.78-2.12). The confinement measures increased gender inequalities, economic problems and workload which further evidenced violence against women.

Multiple sclerosis incidence temporal trend in the Northeast of Iran: Using the Empirical Bayesian method

BACKGROUND

In recent years dramatic changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence have been reported in different provinces in Iran. This study was conducted to assess MS incidence temporal trends from March 21, 2005, to March 20, 2020, and provide a forecast until the end of 2025 in Shahroud county.

METHODS

This longitudinal study was carried out based on the data obtained from the MS registration system in Shahroud county. First, the annual incidence rates were calculated based on the year of diagnosis and smoothed using the Empirical Bayesian Method. Then temporal trends and annual percent change (APC) of MS incidence were analyzed using Joinpoint (JP) regression. Finally, the univariate time series model analysis was used to estimate the MS incidence trend until the end of 2025.

RESULTS

A total of 234 newly diagnosed cases (60 [25.64%] males and 174 [74.36.4%] females) were examined in this study. The mean age of patients at the time of diagnosis was 31.40 ± 3.78. It was 32.01 ± 6.35 and 30.66 ± 4.27 years for males and females, respectively (P<0.22). The mean annual MS incidence was 5.99 ± 1.46, 3.03 ± 0.21, and 8.98 ± 2.79 per 100,000 in overall, males and females respectively. The MS incidence increased significantly from 5.67 (95% CI: 3.63-7.99) in 2005 to 7.58 (95% CI: 5.17-10.28) in 2020 with an APC of 4.5 (2.8 - 6.1). The MS incidence had a non-linear time trend in the study period and the best time trend fitted to the annual MS incidence trend was the non-linear quadratic curve. Based on this model, the annual MS incidence is expected to increase until the end of 2025.

CONCLUSION

Shahroud county is one of the high-risk areas for MS and the increasing trend of MS incidence in it is similar to regional and global changes. This study, also, showed that MS incidence in Shahroud county will be increasing in the coming years.

Bibliometric and Visual Analysis of the Scientific Literature on Percutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation (PENS) for Pain Treatment

Background: Percutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (PENS) is a minimally invasive peripheral neuromodulation approach implemented against chronic neuropathic and mixed pain. This bibliometric study aims to quantitatively evaluate the output of PENS for pain treatment in the scientific literature. The main purpose is to stimulate research in the field and bridge potential scientific gaps. Methods: Articles were retrieved from the Web of Science (WOS) database. The search key term was “percutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (All Fields) and pain (All Fields)”. Year of publication, journal metrics (impact factor and quartile, Q), title, document type, topic, and citations were extracted. The join-point regression was implemented to assess differences in time points for the publication output. The software tool VOSviewer (version 1.6.17) was used for the visual analysis. Results: One thousand three hundred and eighteen articles were included in the knowledge visualization process. A linear upward trend for annual new publications was found. Almost two-thirds of the documents were published in top-ranked journals (Q1 and Q2). The topic “efficacy” was prevalent (12.81%). Concerning article type, the search strategy yielded 307 clinical investigations (23.3%). Articles were cited 36,610 times with a mean of 42.4 citations per article. Approximately one-half of the articles were cited less than 23 times in a range of 21 years. The semantic network analysis for keywords found eight clusters. The analysis of collaborative efforts among researchers showed five thematic clusters including 102 authors with a minimum of five documents produced in collaborations. Most partnerships involved the United States, England, and Germany. Conclusions: despite the upward trend in the number of publications on the subject and the publication of articles in top-ranked journals, there is a need to increase scientific collaborations between researchers and institutions from different countries.

Secular trends and age-period-cohort effect on adverse perinatal outcomes in Hubei, China (2011-2019)

The increasing trend in the incidence of adverse perinatal outcomes is a public health concern globally as well as in China. However, the causes of the increasing trend are not well understood. The present tertiary-hospital-based retrospective study (2011-2019) aims to determine the secular trends and age-period-cohort effect on adverse perinatal outcomes in Hubei, China. The age-standardized incidence rates of adverse perinatal outcomes significantly decreased such as preterm births by 22% [AAPC - 3.4% (95% CI - 7.8, - 1.2)], low birth weight (LBW) by 28.5% [AAPC - 4.7% (95% CI - 6.0, - 3.3)], and fetal distress by 64.2% [AAPC - 14.0% (95% CI - 17.8, - 10.0)] during 2011-2019. Both extremes of maternal age groups (18-20 years and 42-44 years) had a higher risk ratio for adverse perinatal outcomes including preterm birth, perinatal mortality, LBW, low ponderal index (LPI), low Apgar score, and congenital defect compared to the reference age group (30-32 years). A higher risk ratio for perinatal mortality, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), and fetal distress and a lower risk ratio for preterm births and LBW were observed in the period 2017-2019. Both the young cohort (1997-1999) and the old cohort (1976-1969) had a higher risk ratio for preterm birth, perinatal mortality, macrosomia, and congenital defect compared to the reference cohort (1982-1984). In conclusion, some of the adverse perinatal outcomes incidence significantly decreased in the last 9 years in Hubei. However, extremes of maternal age groups and both young and old cohorts were associated with a higher risk of preterm birth, perinatal mortality, and congenital defect.

Demographic trends associated with substance use disorder and risk for adverse obstetric outcomes with cannabis and opioid use disorders

BACKGROUND

Substance use disorders (SUDs) are increasing in the obstetric population, vary with demographic characteristics, and are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Cannabis use disorder and opioid use disorder are two of the most common SUDs during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE

This study had two objectives. The first objective was to assess trends in any SUD diagnosis during delivery hospitalizations from 2000 to 2018 by maternal age, ZIP code income quartile, and hospital location and teaching status. The second objective was to determine risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes during delivery hospitalizations specifically in the presence of cannabis and opioid use disorder diagnoses.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a serial cross-sectional analysis of the 2000-2018 National Inpatient Sample. Delivery hospitalizations to women aged 15-54 years with substance use disorder diagnoses were identified. SUD included (i) cannabis use disorder; (ii) opioid use disorder; (iii) alcohol use disorder; and (iv) other drug use disorder. We used joinpoint regression to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in any substance use disorder diagnoses with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by (i) ZIP code income quartile, (ii) hospital location and teaching status, and (iii) maternal age. We used unadjusted and adjusted log-linear regression to evaluate the relationship between cannabis use disorder and opioid use disorder several adverse maternal outcomes. We report unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) as measures of effect.

RESULTS

From 2000 to 2018, trends analyses broadly demonstrated increasing risk for SUD across demographic categories. In trends analyses stratified by ZIP code-income quartile, the proportion of deliveries with any SUD diagnosis increased across each income quartile with significant increases in the lowest income quartile (AAPC 4.6%, 95% CI 0.4%, 8.9%), second lowest quartile (AAPC 6.3%, 95% CI 5.3%, 7.4%), second highest quartile (AAPC 5.4%, 95% CI 4.1%, 6.8%), and highest quartile (AAPC 4.4%, 95% CI 2.1%, 6.8%). A larger increasing AAPC for SUD was present for deliveries in rural hospitals (AAPC 12.3%, 95% CI 9.8%, 14.9%) as compared to teaching (AAPC 5.7%, 95% CI 5.2%, 6.3%) and non-teaching urban hospitals (AAPC 7.0%, 95% CI 5.9%, 8.1%). By maternal age group, there was a significant larger AAPC for SUD for women aged 15-19 years (AAPC 8.5%, 95% CI 6.6%, 10.4%), 20-24 years (AAPC 9.0%, 95% CI 6.9%, 11.1%) and 25-29 years (AAPC 9.8%, 95% CI 9.1%, 10.6%) than women ≥30 years of age. Cannabis use disorder was associated with increased adjusted risk for preterm delivery (aRR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43, 1.45) and abruption and antepartum hemorrhage (aRR 1.77, 95% CI 1.75, 1.80). Opioid use disorder was associated with risk for non-transfusion severe maternal morbidity (aRR 1.73, 95% CI 1.67, 1.79), preterm delivery (aRR 1.75, 95% CI 1.74, 1.77), and abruption and antepartum hemorrhage (aRR 2.15, 95% CI 2.11, 2.19).

CONCLUSION

While substance use disorders are increasing in pregnancy across rural and urban settings, age groups, and income quartiles, several populations are associated with higher increased risks and trends. These findings support that SUDs are likely to continue to be of public health significance in diverse geographic and demographic settings.

A Novel Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates through Web Queries and Automated Forecasting Algorithms: Evidence from Romania

Simple Summary

Cancer remains a global burden, currently causing nearly one in six deaths worldwide. Accurate projections of cancer incidence and mortality are needed for effective and efficient policymaking, accurate resource allocation, and to assess the impact of newly introduced policies and measures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted public health systems and caused a significant number of cancers to remain undiagnosed, thus affecting the quality of official statistics and their usefulness for health studies. This paper addresses this issue by proposing novel cancer incidence/cancer mortality models based on population web-search habits and historical links with official health variables. The models are empirically estimated using data from one of the most vulnerable European Union (EU) members, Romania, a country that consistently reports lower survival rates than the EU average, and are further used to forecast cancer incidence and mortality rates in the country. Research findings have important policy implications, and the novel framework, owing to its generalizability, can be applied to the same task in other countries. Overall, the results indicate a continuation of the increasing trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Romania and thus underline the urgency to change the status quo in the Romanian public-health system.

Abstract

Cancer remains a leading cause of worldwide mortality and is a growing, multifaceted global burden. As a result, cancer prevention and cancer mortality reduction are counted among the most pressing public health issues of the twenty-first century. In turn, accurate projections of cancer incidence and mortality rates are paramount for robust policymaking, aimed at creating efficient and inclusive public health systems and also for establishing a baseline to assess the impact of newly introduced public health measures. Within the European Union (EU), Romania consistently reports higher mortality from all types of cancer than the EU average, caused by an inefficient and underfinanced public health system and lower economic development that in turn have created the phenomenon of “oncotourism”. This paper aims to develop novel cancer incidence/cancer mortality models based on historical links between incidence and mortality occurrence as reflected in official statistics and population web-search habits. Subsequently, it employs estimates of the web query index to produce forecasts of cancer incidence and mortality rates in Romania. Various statistical and machine-learning models—the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), the Exponential Smoothing State Space Model with Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA Errors, Trend, and Seasonal Components (TBATS), and a feed-forward neural network nonlinear autoregression model, or NNAR—are estimated through automated algorithms to assess in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for web-query volume data. Forecasts are produced with the overperforming model in the out-of-sample context (i.e., NNAR) and fed into the novel incidence/mortality models. Results indicate a continuation of the increasing trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Romania by 2026, with projected levels for the age-standardized total cancer incidence of 313.8 and the age-standardized mortality rate of 233.8 representing an increase of 2%, and, respectively, 3% relative to the 2019 levels. Research findings thus indicate that, under the no-change hypothesis, cancer will remain a significant burden in Romania and highlight the need and urgency to improve the status quo in the Romanian public health system.

Trends and outcomes for deliveries with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy from 2000 to 2018: A repeated cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse trends, risk factors, and outcomes related to hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP).

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional.

SETTING

US delivery hospitalisations.

POPULATION

Delivery hospitalisations in the 2000-2018 National Inpatient Sample.

METHODS

US hospital delivery hospitalisations with HDP were analysed. Several trends were analysed: (i) the proportion of deliveries by year with HDP, (ii) the proportion of deliveries with HDP risk factors and (iii) adverse outcomes associated with HDP including maternal stroke, acute renal failure and acute liver injury. Risk ratios were determined using regression models with HDP as the exposure of interest.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of HDP, risk factors for HDP and associated adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 73.1 million delivery hospitalisations, 7.7% had an associated diagnosis of HDP. Over the study period, HDP doubled from 6.0% of deliveries in 2000 to 12.0% in 2018. The proportion of deliveries with risk factors for HDP increased from 9.6% in 2000 to 24.6% in 2018. In adjusted models, HDP were associated with increased stroke (aRR [adjusted risk ratio] 15.9, 95% CI 14.8-17.1), acute renal failure (aRR 13.8, 95% CI 13.5-14.2) and acute liver injury (aRR 1.2, 95% CI 1.2-1.3). Among deliveries with HDP, acute renal failure and acute liver injury increased; in comparison, stroke decreased.

CONCLUSION

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy increased in the setting of risk factors for HDP becoming more common, whereas stroke decreased.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

While hypertensive disorders of pregnancy increased from 2000 to 2018, stroke appears to be decreasing.

Impact of Breast Cancer Awareness Month on Public Interest in the United States between 2012 and 2021: A Google Trends Analysis

Breast Cancer Awareness Month (BCAM) has a long history of over 30 years, established in 1985 to occur every October, and the National Breast Cancer Foundation now leads the operation. There have been no studies to evaluate the impact of the BCAM on public awareness of breast cancer. We analyzed the impact of BCAM on public awareness of breast cancer in the U.S. from 2012 to 2021 using the relative search volume (RSV) of Google Trends as a surrogate. We also analyzed the impact of Lung Cancer Awareness Month (LCAM) and Prostate Cancer Awareness Month (PCAM) on public awareness of lung and prostate cancer, respectively, to see differences in their effectiveness among the health observances for the top three most common cancers in the U.S. We performed a joinpoint regression analysis to identify statistically significant time points of a change in trend. There were joinpoints around BCAM for “Breast cancer” every year from 2012 to 2021, with a significant increase in the weekly RSVs from 21.9% to 46.7%. Except for 2013 and 2015 for “Lung cancer,” when significant increases in the RSV at 1.8% and 1.2% per week were observed around LCAM, no joinpoints were noted around LCAM or PCAM. These results imply that BCAM has successfully improved the public awareness of breast cancer in the U.S. compared to other representative health observances, likely due to the effective involvement of non-medical industries, influencers affected by breast cancer, and an awareness symbol.

Trends in Routine Opioid Dispensing After Common Pediatric Surgeries in the United States: 2014-2019

Using Joinpoint regression, our study revealed substantial decreases in postoperative opioid dispensing after outpatient pediatric surgeries beginning in 2017.

Late cART Initiation Consistently Driven by Late HIV Presentation: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study in Taiwan from 2009 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

Late initiation (LI) of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-defined as having a CD4⁺ count of < 200 cells/μL or an AIDS-defining disease at cART initiation-has detrimental outcomes but remains prevalent worldwide, with LI trends and etiologies following the implementation of various HIV policies remaining underinvestigated. We assessed key concerns, characterized the determinants of various statuses at cART initiation, and evaluated the effects of those statuses on all-cause mortality after cART initiation.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective cohort study enrolled 1198 patients with newly diagnosed HIV infection during 2009-2019 who were grouped by status at cART initiation: those without LI (non-LI group, 56.01%); those with LI but without late presentation (LP) of HIV (LP: a CD4 + count of < 200 cells/μL at HIV presentation or AIDS events ≤ 3 months of HIV diagnosis) [LILP(-) group, 4.51%]; and those with LI and with LP of HIV [LILP(+) group, 39.48%]. Joinpoint regression was used to identify changes in LI proportion.

RESULTS

The median CD4⁺ count at cART initiation increased significantly between 2009 (98 cells/μL) and 2015 (325 cells/μL) and stabilized thereafter (P for trend < 0.001). For LI, we identified one joinpoint in 2015: a substantial decrease from 77.14% in 2009 to 34.45% in 2015, followed by a nonsignificant increase to 39.1% in 2019. Overall, LILP(+) explained 89.8% of LI, without significant changes (92.59% in 2009 to 94.23% in 2019). In addition to HIV diagnosis during 2009-2012, multinomial logistic regression identified an age over 30 years and acute HIV infection as risk factors for LILP(+) and LILP(-), respectively. LILP(-) and LILP(+) were associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

Given the rise in LI from 2015 in the era of treat-all and rapid cART initiation, strategic interventions to increase earlier cART initiation must be intensified in Taiwan, especially among populations with delayed access to HIV testing services.

Trends in and complications associated with mental health condition diagnoses during delivery hospitalizations

BACKGROUND

Mental health conditions during delivery hospitalizations are not well characterized.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to characterize the prevalence of maternal mental health condition diagnoses and associated risk during delivery hospitalizations in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

The 2000 to 2018 National Inpatient Sample was used for this repeated cross-sectional analysis. Delivery hospitalizations of women aged 15 to 54 years with and without mental health condition diagnoses, including depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, bipolar spectrum disorder, and schizophrenia spectrum disorder, were identified. Temporal trends in mental health condition diagnoses during delivery hospitalizations were determined using the National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint Regression Program to estimate the average annual percent change with 95% confidence intervals. The trends in chronic conditions associated with mental health condition diagnoses, including asthma, pregestational diabetes mellitus, chronic hypertension, obesity, and substance use, were analyzed. The association between mental health conditions and the following adverse outcomes was determined: (1) severe maternal morbidity, (2) preeclampsia or gestational hypertension, (3) preterm delivery, (4) postpartum hemorrhage, (5) cesarean delivery, and (6) maternal mortality. Regression models for each outcome were performed with unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios as measures of effects.

RESULTS

Of 73,109,791 delivery hospitalizations, 2,316,963 (3.2%) had ≥1 associated mental health condition diagnosis. The proportion of delivery hospitalizations with a mental health condition increased from 0.6% in 2000 to 7.3% in 2018 (average annual percent change, 11.4%; 95% confidence interval, 10.3%-12.6%). Among deliveries in women with a mental health condition diagnosis, chronic health conditions, including asthma, pregestational diabetes mellitus, chronic hypertension, obesity, and substance use, increased from 14.9% in 2000 to 38.5% in 2018. Deliveries to women with a mental health condition diagnosis were associated with severe maternal morbidity (risk ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-1.90), preeclampsia and gestational hypertension (risk ratio, 1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.58-1.60), preterm delivery (risk ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-1.36), postpartum hemorrhage (risk ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-1.38), cesarean delivery (risk ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.20), and maternal death (risk ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.56). The increased risk was retained in adjusted models.

CONCLUSION

The proportion of delivery hospitalizations with mental health condition diagnoses increased significantly throughout the study period. Mental health condition diagnoses were associated with other underlying chronic health conditions and a modestly increased risk of a range of adverse outcomes. The findings suggested that mental health conditions are an important risk factor in adverse maternal outcomes.

Trends in Venous Thromboembolism and Associated Risk Factors During Delivery Hospitalizations From 2000 to 2018

OBJECTIVE

To characterize trends in and risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) during delivery hospitalizations in the United States.

METHODS

The 2000-2018 National Inpatient Sample was used for this repeated cross-sectional analysis. Venous thromboembolism (including deep vein thrombosis [DVT] and pulmonary embolism) during delivery hospitalizations for women aged 15 to 54 years was determined by year. Temporal trends in VTE were characterized using joinpoint regression with estimates presented as the average annual percent change. Temporal trends in common VTE risk factors were also analyzed. The proportion of vaginal and cesarean deliveries by year that had VTE risk factors was determined, and average annual percent changes with 95% CIs were calculated. The relationship between risk factors and the likelihood of VTE events was determined with adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 73,109,789 delivery hospitalizations, 48,546 VTE events occurred (6.6/10,000 deliveries), including 37,312 DVT diagnoses and 12,487 pulmonary embolism diagnoses. Rates increased significantly for vaginal (average annual percent change 2.5%, 95% CI 1.5-3.5%) but not for cesarean delivery hospitalizations (average annual percent change 0.3%, 95% CI -1.0 to 1.6%) over the study period. Pulmonary embolism increased for both vaginal delivery (average annual percent change 8.7%, 95% CI 6.0-11.5%) and cesarean delivery (average annual percent change 4.9%, 95% CI 3.6-6.2%). The proportion of cesarean deliveries with at least one VTE risk factor increased from 27.2% in 2000 to 43.6% in 2018 (average annual percent change 2.6%, 95% CI 2.2-3.1%) and for vaginal deliveries, from 17.7% to 31.4% (average annual percent change 3.4%, 95% CI 2.3-4.4%). The 5.9% of deliveries with at least two VTE risk factor diagnoses accounted for 25.4% of VTE diagnoses. Factors with the highest VTE risk included transfusion (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.1, 95% CI 3.7-4.5), infection (aOR 5.8, 95% CI 5.3-6.3), history of VTE (aOR 7.2, 95% CI 6.2-8.4), and thrombophilias (aOR 9.6, 95% CI 8.5-11.0).

CONCLUSION

Both risk factors for VTE and rate of pulmonary embolism increased over the study period. Deep vein thrombosis increased during vaginal delivery hospitalizations but not during cesarean delivery hospitalizations.

Overdose deaths involving non-BZD hypnotic/sedatives in the USA: Trends analyses

Background

There is sparse knowledge on overdose deaths resulting from non-benzodiazepines and gabapentinoids usage. We examined overdose death rate across demographics categories and the overdose death trends over time.

Methods

Using data from the National Center for Health Statistics (USA), we identified 21,167 persons that died with an overdose ICD code as the underlying cause of death and had a T42.6/T42.7 ICD code, which include gabapentinoids and z-drugs, among their multiple causes of death. The overdose death rate was calculated per 100,000 persons for every year between 2000 and 2018. We used joinpoint regression analyses to assess trends over time.

Results

We identified a rise in the proportion of deaths with a T42.6/T42.7 ICD code between 2000 and 2006 (yearly change: +0.06) and between 2006 and 2015 (yearly change: +0.32). From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of deaths with any other T code rose significantly (yearly change: +3.56). Between 2008 and 2018, there was also a significant rise (yearly change: +1.31). From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of deaths with a T42.6/T42.7 ICD code with any other T code rose (yearly change: +2.58). From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of deaths with a T42.6/T42.7 ICD code with a concurrent benzodiazepine T code rose (yearly change: +1.98). From 2000 to 2005, the proportion of alcohol T codes rose non-significantly (yearly change: +0.35). Finally, the proportion of alcohol T codes fell significantly between 2008 and 2018 (yearly change: - 0.74).

Interpretation

Deaths due to non-benzodiazepine hypnotics and gabapentinoids increased significantly over the last two decades. Clinicians should not assume that replacing benzodiazepines and opioids with these medications necessarily lowers risk to the patient.

Funding

This study was funded by an internal grant from the Columbia University President's Global Innovation Fund (PI: Martins).

Predicting the burden of cancer in Switzerland up to 2025

Predicting the short-term evolution of the number of cancers is essential for planning investments and allocating health resources. The objective of this study was to predict the numbers of cancer cases and of the 12 most frequent cancer sites, and their age-standardized incidence rates, for the years 2019-2025 in Switzerland. Projections of the number of malignant cancer cases were obtained by combining data from two sources: forecasts of national age-standardized cancer incidence rates and population projections from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Age-standardized cancer incidence rates, approximating the individual cancer risk, were predicted by a low-order Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The contributions of changes in cancer risk (epidemiological component) and population aging and growth (demographic components) to the projected number of new cancer cases were each quantified. Between 2018 and 2025, age-standardized cancer incidence rates are predicted to stabilize for men and women at around 426 and 328/100,000, respectively (<1% change). These projected trends are expected for most cancer sites. The annual number of cancers is expected to increase from 45,676 to 52,552 (+15%), more so for men (+18%) than for women (+11%). These increases are almost entirely due to projected changes in population age structure (+12% for men and +6% for women) and population growth (+6% for both sexes). The rise in numbers of expected cancers for each site is forecast to range from 4.15% (thyroid in men) to 26% (bladder in men). While ranking of the three most frequent cancers will remain unchanged for men (1st prostate, 2nd lung, 3rd colon-rectum), colorectal cancer will overtake by 2025 lung cancer as the second most common female cancer in Switzerland, behind breast cancer. Effective and sustained prevention measures, as well as infrastructural interventions, are required to counter the increase in cancer cases and prevent any potential shortage of professionals in cancer care delivery.