The use of Monte-Carlo simulation techniques for risk assessment: study of a municipal waste incinerator

Determination and health risk assessment of carbamate pesticide residues in date palm fruits (Phoenix dactylifera) using QuEChERS method and UHPLC-MS/MS

This study aimed to investigate carbamate pesticide residues in different varieties of date palm fruits in the UAE, utilizing UHPLC-MS/MS. For sample preparation and clean-up, the efficiency and performance of different QuEChERS dispersive solid-phase extraction kits were compared. Precision and recovery were assessed at 10 μg kg-1 for the three kits, revealing that Kit 2 demonstrated the best performance. The selected QuEChERS method was validated to detect 14 carbamate residues in 55 date samples. The method exhibited strong linearity with R2 > 0.999 and low LOD (0.01-0.005 μg kg-1) and LOQ (0.003-0.04 μg kg-1). Excellent accuracy (recovery: 88-106%) and precision (RSD: 1-11%) were observed, with negligible matrix effect (- 4.98-13.26%). All samples contained at least one carbamate residue. While most detected residues were below their MRLs, carbosulfan was found in 21 samples, propoxur in 2 samples, and carbofuran in 1 sample above their MRLs. The hazard index (HI) was calculated for carbosulfan, phenmedipham, carbaryl, propoxur, carbofuran, and methomyl to assess potential health risks for date consumers. All HI values were below the safety limit of 1.0, indicating that the consumption of dates does not pose a non-carcinogenic health risk for adults and children.

Detection of 11 carbamate pesticide residues in raw and pasteurized camel milk samples using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry: Method development, method validation, and health risk assessment

This study aimed to use ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to a triple-quadrupole mass spectrometer to detect 11 carbamate pesticide residues in raw and pasteurized camel milk samples collected from the United Arab Emirates. A method was developed and validated by evaluating limits of detection, limits of quantitation, linearity, extraction recovery, repeatability, intermediate precision, and matrix effect. Due to the high protein and fat content in camel milk, a sample preparation step was necessary to avoid potential interference during analysis. For this purpose, 5 different liquid-liquid extraction techniques were evaluated to determine their efficiency in extracting carbamate pesticides from camel milk. The established method demonstrated high accuracy and precision. The matrix effect for all carbamate pesticides was observed to fall within the soft range, indicating its negligible effect. Remarkably, detection limits for all carbamates were as low as 0.01 μg/kg. Additionally, the coefficients of determination were >0.998, demonstrating excellent linearity. A total of 17 camel milk samples were analyzed, and only one sample was found to be free from any carbamate residues. The remaining 16 samples contained at least one carbamate residue, yet all detected concentrations were below the recommended maximum residue limits set by Codex Alimentarius and the European Union pesticide databases. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that the detected levels of ethiofencarb in 3 samples were close to the borderline of the maximum residue limit. To assess the health risk for consumers of camel milk, the hazard index values of carbofuran, carbaryl, and propoxur were calculated. The hazard index values for these 3 carbamate pesticides were all below 1, indicating that camel milk consumers are not at risk from these residues.

Health risk assessment of toxic elements in groundwater in a major industrial and agricultural basin, (East of Ergene Basin, Turkey)

Ergene Basin is an important agricultural and industrial region and an important water resource. In this current research, groundwater quality of east of Ergene Basin was evaluated using water quality index (WQI), and health risk due to groundwater consumption was assessed with HQ, HI, and CR. Multivariate statistical analyses were performed to evaluate the multiple effects of pollutants on groundwater. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were also performed. All samples were in the "excellent" WQI category. Health risk values for adults and children were below the safe limit, both from digestion and dermal exposure. CR values of As in some samples exceeded the threshold value, both for adults and children. Sensitivity analysis revealed that ingestion rate and exposure frequency for adults and exposure duration and concentration of toxic metal for children were the most sensitive variables affecting probabilistic health risk.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of cancer risks in relation to environmental waste incinerator emissions: a meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies

OBJECTIVES

Various toxic substances can be generated from incinerators, exposing nearby residents, and epidemiological studies have shown wide variations in risk estimates for cancer risk in populations living close to incinerators.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a literature search and systematic review were conducted to identify studies conducted on general populations exposed to environmental incinerator emissions and cancer outcomes. Meta-analysis was performed according to the cancer types for which 2 or more studies were reported. Subgroup analysis was done for sex, the exposure estimation method, the study period, and the type of outcome.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were found for the qualitative review and meta-analysis. Seven studies had a case-control design, and 4 had a cohort design. The pooled effect size was not significant for breast, colorectal, liver, lung, lymphohematopoietic, stomach, bladder, central nervous system, and laryngeal cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, sarcoma, leukemia, and all cancers. In the subgroup analysis, the pooled effect size of laryngeal cancer in females was 1.82 (95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 3.01), although only 2 studies were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The meta-analysis did not provide evidence of an increased risk for any cancer among populations living near waste incinerators, except for laryngeal cancer in females. However, since relatively few studies were reviewed and some cancer types showed significant increases in individual studies, this evidence needs to be updated regularly.

Comparison of the exposure assessment of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate between the PBPK model-based reverse dosimetry and scenario-based analysis: A Korean general population study

Di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), classified as a reproductive toxicant, is a ubiquitous pollutant in foodstuffs, dust, and commercial products. In this study, to provide a useful cross-check on the accuracy of the exposure assessment, the estimated daily intake of DEHP was compared using reverse dosimetry with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and a scenario-based probabilistic estimation model for six subpopulations in Korea. For reverse dosimetry analysis, the concentrations of urinary DEHP metabolites, namely mono (2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate (MEHHP) and mono (2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl)phthalate (MEOHP), from three human biomonitoring program datasets were used. For the scenario-based model, we evaluated the various exposure sources of DEHP, including diet, air, indoor dust, soil, and personal care products (PCPs), and also determined its levels based on the literature review and measurements of indoor dust. The DEHP exposure doses using both exposure assessment approaches were similar in all cases, except for the 95th percentile exposure doses in toddlers (1-2 years) and young children (3-6 years). The PBPK-reverse dosimetry estimated daily intakes at the 95th percentile ranged between 22.53 and 29.90 μg/kg/day for toddlers and young children. These exceeded the reference dose (RfD) of 20 μg/kg bw/day of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) based on the increased relative liver weight. Although, food was considered the primary source of DEHP, contributing to a total exposure of 50.8-75.1%, the effect of exposure to indoor dust should not be overlooked. The occurrence of high levels of DEHP in indoor dust collected from Korean homes suggests the use of a wide variety of consumer products containing DEHP. Furthermore, more attention should be paid to the high exposure levels of DEHP, especially in young children. Therefore, it is necessary to perform continuous monitoring of the indoor dust, consumer products, and the body burden of children.

Current knowledge on urease and nitrification inhibitors technology and their safety

OBJECTIVE

Urea is one of the most widely used commercial fertilisers worldwide due to its high N density and cost effectiveness. However, it can be lost in the form of gaseous ammonia and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which can potentially lead to environmental pollution. Farmers are compelled to apply more urea to account for those losses, thereby increasing their expenditure on fertilization. The objective of this paper is to present a literature review on current knowledge regarding inhibitor technologies such as urease inhibitor; n-(N-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT), and nitrification inhibitor; dicyandiamide (DCD).

METHODS

A thorough review of all the scientific literature was carried out and a proposed risk assessment framework developed.

RESULTS

The study showed that the urease inhibitor NBPT significantly reduced NH3 loss from urea. However, concerns about NBPT safety to human health had been raised when the nitrification inhibitor DCD appeared as a residue in milk. This article presents a risk assessment framework for evaluating human exposure to chemicals like NBPT or DCD, following the consumption of foods of animal origin (e.g. milk) from cows grazing on inhibitor-treated pasture.

CONCLUSION

The EU's target of a 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 can be aided by using NBPT as part of an overall suite of solutions. A comprehensive risk assessment is advised for effective evaluation of potential risks from exposure to these inhibitors.

Probabilistic health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation for pesticide residues in date fruits of Iran

The validation of an analytical procedure based on the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) approach is presented for multiresidue analysis of pesticides in dates by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS²). The proposed methodology was applied for simultaneous quantification of 16 pesticides in 50 different date fruits. Method validation was performed regarding accuracy, precision, LDR, LOD, and LOQ, as well as matrix effects. Results of validation were satisfactory, with recoveries higher than 80% for 75% of the samples for 100- and 500- μg L^-1 spike levels. Evaluation of the matrix effect revealed that for 81% of the samples, a slight matrix effect was observed. Residues in 92% of the real samples were found below national MRLs. Afterward, hazard quotient (HQ) and total hazard quotient (THQ) of human health risk assessment of pesticides was estimated using a probabilistic approach based on the Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. Total hazard quotient (THQ) in adults based on the consumption of dates in total samples was estimated to be 7.8% and 36.7% for adults and children, respectively. Since the studied pesticides are registered in the country and are the most widely used pesticides on dates, the occurrence of other pesticide residues seems to be unlikely. Consequently, the applied health risk assessment on Iranian date fruit samples showed that the HQ for adults and children populations indicates no risk to human health.

The spatiotemporal estimation of the risk and the international transmission of COVID-19: a global perspective

An ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Currently, the spatiotemporal epidemic transmission, prediction, and risk are insufficient for COVID-19 but we urgently need relevant information globally. We have developed a novel two-stage simulation model to simulate the spatiotemporal changes in the number of cases and estimate the future worldwide risk. Simulation results show that if there is no specific medicine for it, it will form a global pandemic. Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, and the United States are the most vulnerable. The relationship between each country's vulnerability and days before the first imported case occurred shows an exponential decrease. We successfully predicted the outbreak of South Korea, Japan, and Italy in the early stages of the global pandemic based on the information before February 12, 2020. The development of the epidemic is now earlier than we expected. However, the trend of spread is similar to our estimation.

Monte Carlo simulation-based probabilistic health risk assessment of metals in groundwater via ingestion pathway in the mining areas of Singhbhum copper belt, India

Probabilistic health risk assessment was conducted for metal exposure through groundwater in mining areas of Singhbhum Copper Belt, India. The concentrations of metals showed notable spatial variation exceeding drinking water standards at some of the locations. Hazard Quotient revealed that chronic risks to the local population were largely contributed by Mn, Co and As. The 95^th percentiles of Hazard Index (HI) calculated using Monte Carlo simulations showed that the HI for male, female and child populations was 2.87, 2.54 and 4.57 for pre-monsoon, 2.16, 1.88 and 3.49 for monsoon and 2.28, 2.02 and 3.75 for post-monsoon seasons, respectively. The Hazard Indices indicated that amongst the populations, risk was greater for child population and considering the seasons the risk was higher during the pre-monsoon season. The sensitivity analysis suggested that concentration of metals in groundwater and exposure duration were 2 most influential input variables that contributed to the total risk.

An Uncertainty Assessment of Human Health Risk for Toxic Trace Elements Using a Sequential Indicator Simulation in Farmland Soils

Toxic trace elements in farmland soils are potential threats to human health. In this study, we collected soil samples from the farmlands of southern Guangzhou. We used a sequential indicator simulation (SIS) to deal with the problem of skewed distribution in the sample data. We assessed the human health risks, as well as the uncertainties, of five toxic trace elements: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg). The results were as follows: (1) The risk indices of two trace elements (Cd and Hg) were less than the standard threshold, which means that there was no human health risk due to Cd and Hg in the study area. However, the maximum risk indices of As, Cr, and Pb exceeded the standard threshold. In particular, the maximum risk index of Pb was twice the standard threshold; (2) The risk probabilities of As and Cr were less than 25% in most areas, and only a few parcels of farmland have a 100% risk probability. The risk map of Pb was used to identify contiguous areas of high-risk probability (i.e., 75%–100%) in the center of the study area. (3) E-type estimation by the SIS method overestimates the risk when the number of samples with concentrations above the threshold have a large proportion of total samples. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) The simulation results show that areas with high-risk indices were concentrated in the Panyu District, which is close to the Pearl River and the core urban area of Guangzhou; (2) Except for Pb, these trace elements are not likely to pose health risks in southern Guangzhou; (3) This study considers the risk probability found with the SIS method to be more reliable for visualizing regional risk.

Halocarbon Emissions from Hazardous Waste Landfills: Analysis of Sources and Risks

Landfills are sources of fugitive volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions, including halocarbons. The objective of this study was to evaluate the contribution of halogenated VOCs to the health risks associated with the exposure of workers operating in landfills, gathering information on the role of endogenous/exogenous sources present in anthropized areas. A hazardous waste landfill located in Turin, Italy was used as a case study. Ambient concentrations of 10 pollutants (BTEX, styrene, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, 1,2-dichloroethane, and 1,2-dichloropropane), measured in 10 points of the landfill area, were considered and analyzed. The data had a monthly frequency and covered two years. A cumulative health risk analysis was conducted by applying a Monte-Carlo method. The results showed that the contribution of 1,2-dichloroethane and 1,2-dichloropropane was 17.9% and 19.4% for the total risk and hazard index respectively. Benzene and ethylbenzene gave the highest contribution to the total risk (56.8% and 24.8%, respectively). In the second phase of the study, waste typologies that are possibly responsible for halocarbon emissions were investigated. Halocarbon concentration trends and waste disposal records were compared. Although further investigation is needed, some waste typologies were not excluded to contribute to halocarbon emissions, in particular sludge coming from wastewater treatment plants.

Environmental and health risks related to waste incineration

The article presents a mini review of the published research focused on understanding environmental and human health impacts nearby waste incineration plants. We found no studies indicating that modern-technology waste incineration plants, which comply with the legislation on emissions, are a cancer risk factor or have adverse effects on reproduction or development. There are several factors in favor of this affirmation: (a) the emission levels of the plants currently built in the developed countries are several orders of magnitude lower than those of the plants in whose environments epidemiological studies have been carried out and which have found some kind of negative association in terms of health; (b) risk assessment studies indicate that most of the exposure is produced through the diet and not by a direct route; and (c) monitoring dioxin level studies in the population resident in the environment of incineration plants did not reveal increases of these levels when compared with a population living in reference areas. A necessary condition for the development of a waste incineration plant is to generate the conditions to prevent any impact that activates or potentially carries damage or risks to the environment and, in particular, to health. This makes it imperative to use a preventive strategy through the implementation of a previous environmental impact assessment and the establishment of emissions standards and an emissions monitoring program in order to ensure the prevention of environmental damage.

First report on probabilistic risk assessment of pesticide residues in a riverine ecosystem in South-South Nigeria

The present study evaluated the ecological and human health risk associated with concentrations of legacy organochlorine pesticide residues in Ikpoba River, a major River in the heart of Benin City, a Nigerian urban town located in Edo State. Standard methods were used to collect, extract and analyze samples, while risk assessment was carried out using standard models and indices. Results showed varying pesticide concentrations in both sediment and water samples with α-HCH (0.24 ± 0.11 μg L^-l), predominant in water, whereas dieldrin (0.99 ± 0.33 μg kg^-l) was the highest concentration in sediment. Compared to the Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQGs), this study concentrations of pesticides in sediments were below the values of effect range medium, effect range low, probable effect level and threshold effects level, suggesting low environmental hazard to benthic organisms. However, on exposure to contaminated sediments, probabilistic ecological risk assessment using Monte Carlo techniques showed potential risk to algae, daphnid and fish. Human health risk estimates using dermal and ingestion exposure deterministic and probabilistic routes revealed a potential risk to adults and children exposed to contaminated water and sediment. Estimates for detected pesticides exceeded the threshold level, indicating potential cancer effects for both children and adults who rely on the resources of the river. This study highlights the need for concerted efforts to curb the threat of pesticides and other contaminants in the aquatic environment by all relevant stakeholders in Nigeria and Africa as a whole.

Health risk assessment of nitrate in groundwater resources of Iranshahr using Monte Carlo simulation and geographic information system (GIS)

Because of exposure to a wide range of chemical contaminants such as nitrate via potable water resources, the use of the approaches to set standards for drinking water quality and also to do a risk assessment is necessary for maintaining the public health. High levels of nitrate in drinking water can have adverse health effects; primarily for infants and pregnant women. So, the present study aimed to the assessment of nitrate health risk in drinking water resources of the Iranshahr city, Sistan and Baluchistan province and also, evaluation of the uncertainty of nitrate and the probability of contamination occurrence by Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique. Besides, the geographic information system (Arc GIS, Ver 10.3) was applied to mapping the nitrate concentration in groundwater resources of the studied area. For these aims, the numbers of 66 samples were collected from rural groundwater resources, and nitrate concentration was measured using a Spectrophotometer in wavelength of 220 nm. According to the results, the nitrate concentration was in the range of 6.49 mg/L, and its average level was 6.15 mg/L. Also, the simulation results with 90% confidence showed that the hazard equitant (HQ) in the infant groups, children-teenagers and adults was less than 0.331, 0.311, 0.312, and 0.3, respectively.

Consumption of illegal home-made alcohol in Malawi: A neglected public health threat

This study assessed the ethanol and methanol contents of homemade spirit (Kachasu) sold in Blantyre, Malawi. The likelihood of ethanol and methanol toxicity, respectively, was determined through Monte Carlo simulations using reported Kachasu intake volumes of 21 consumers and the determined methanol and ethanol contents. Ethanol concentration, in samples from 20 different distillers, ranged from 11 to 55% v/v. Methanol was detected in 10 of the 20 samples (0.01-0.28% v/v). The likely mean ethanol intake of drinkers in Blantyre was found to be 214 ± 93 mL per day (90% CI, 68.9-373.4 mL), and mean methanol intake was 0.44 ± 0.37 mL (90% CI, 0.03-1.17 mL). The intake values translated to mean blood ethanol and methanol concentrations of 38 ± 16 mg/mL and 0.05 ± 0.04 mg/mL, respectively. Therefore, the risk of methanol toxicity was considered as negligible. However, there was a high risk of ethanol toxicity. Since production and selling of Kachasu are already illegal in Malawi, enforcement of regulations should be strengthened to reverse the current situation where Kachasu is being distilled and sold openly even within cities. Consumers should also be sensitized about the likely risks associated with consumption of Kachasu in Malawi so that they can make informed choices.

A Comprehensive and Integrated Stochastic-Fuzzy Method for Sustainability Assessment in the Malaysian Food Manufacturing Industry

Manufacturing activities carry significant burdens for all three dimensions of sustainability, i.e., environment, economy and society. However, most of the available sustainability assessment methods for manufacturing are based on environmental concerns only. Moreover, it is hard to find a sustainability assessment method that considers both stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties concurrently and a comprehensive set of weighted and applicable indicators. Thus, the main purpose of this paper was to develop and test an integrated sustainability assessment method that included both stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties. Both quantitative and qualitative, and weighted sustainability indicators for the Malaysian food manufacturing industry needed to be considered, with reliable assessment results. In order to achieve the objective, the Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic approaches were employed. An overall unit-less sustainability index was calculated to evaluate the current sustainability level. This method was demonstrated using a real-world case study of a Malaysian food manufacturing company. The results highlighted and traced the company-wide major low and high performing areas for all three dimensions of sustainability. The results unveiled that the case company could improve its sustainability performance more effectively by decreasing the amount of air emissions, polluted wastewater, etc., and improving the working conditions. This would enable the practitioners and decision-makers to allocate resources accordingly and more efficiently. Finally, the developed method was validated and the implications and conclusions of the research were presented.

Comparing dietary and non-dietary source contribution of BPA and DEHP to prenatal exposure: A Catalonia (Spain) case study

Bisphenol A (BPA) and Di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) are two wide spread chemicals classified as endocrine disruptors (ED). The present study aims to estimate the non-dietary (dermal, non-dietary ingestion and inhalation) exposure to BPA and DEHP for a pregnant women cohort. In addition, to assess the prenatal exposure for the fetus, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was used. It was adapted for pregnancy in order to assess the internal dosimetry levels of EDs (BPA and DEHP) in the fetus. Estimates of exposure to BPA and DEHP from all pathways along with their relative importance were provided in order to establish which proportion of the total exposure came from diet and which came from non-dietary exposures. In this study, the different oral dosing scenarios (dietary and non-dietary) were considered keeping inhalation as a continuous exposure case. Total non-dietary mean values were 0.002 µg/kg_bw/day (0.000; 0.004 µg/kg_bw/day for 5th and 95th percentile, respectively) for BPA and 0.597 µg/kg_bw/day (0.116 µg/kg_bw/day and 1.506 µg/kg_bw/day for 5th and 95th percentile, respectively) for DEHP. Indoor environments and especially dust ingestion were the main non-dietary contributors to the total exposure of BPA and DEHP with 60% and 81%. However, as expected, diet showed the higher contribution to total exposure with > 99.9% for BPA and 63% for DEHP. Although diet was considered the primary source of exposure to BPA and phthalates, it must be taken into account that with non-dietary sources the first-pass metabolism is lacking, so these may be of equal or even higher toxicological relevance than dietary sources. The present study is in the framework of "Health and environmental-wide associations based on large population surveys" (HEALS) project (FP7-603946).

Quantification and feed to food transfer of total and inorganic arsenic from a commercial seaweed feed

Seaweed has a long-associated history of use as a supplemented livestock feed, providing nutrients and vitamins essential to maintaining animal health. Some species of seaweed, particularly the fucoids, are well-known accumulators of the metalloid arsenic (As). Arsenic toxicity to humans is well established even at low exposure levels and is considered a class 1 human carcinogen. As mankind's appetite for livestock produce continues to grow unabated, there is a concern that consumption of livestock produce reared on a diet supplemented with seaweed animal feed (SAF) may pose a threat to the human population due to potentially high levels of As present in seaweed. To address this concern and provide end users, including industry, consumers, policymakers and regulators with information on the exposure associated with As in commercial seaweed animal feed, the estimated daily intake (EDI) of As was calculated to evaluate potential human exposure levels. Using As data from a commercially available seaweed meal over a five-year period (2012-2017) a population exposure assessment was carried out. A Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to characterise the feed to food transfer of As from animal feed to animal produce such as beef, milk, chicken, and eggs. The model examined initial levels in seaweed, inclusion rate in animal feed, animal feeding rates and potential transfer to food produced from a supplemented diet of SAF. The analysis of seaweed animal feed showed that inorganic As was a small fraction of the total As found in seaweed meal (80:1). Statistical analysis found significant differences in the concentration of As in seaweed animal feed depending on the grain size (p < 0.001), with higher As concentrations in smaller sized grain fractions. Due to several detoxification steps and subsequent rapid excretion from the bodies of livestock, a very low carryover rate of As compounds from seaweed animal feed into livestock produce was observed. The EDI calculated in this study for the livestock produce evaluated at the 95th confidence interval was <0.01% of suggested safe levels of inorganic As intake. The threat to the general population as a result of consumption of livestock products reared on a diet consisting of SAF is found to be negligible.

Estimation of human-origin estrone and 17β-estradiol concentrations in the Han River, Seoul, South Korea and its uncertainty-based ecological risk characterization

Estrogens originated from humans can reach ambient water and possibly cause significant ecological risks. In this study, the quantities of human-origin estrone (E1) and 17β-estradiol (E2) in the influent and effluent of four sewer treatment plants (STPs) in Seoul, South Korea were estimated using a demographic model. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the quantitative uncertainty of estimated E1 and E2 concentrations. Mean concentrations of E1 and E2 estimated for STP influents ranged from 29.5 to 38.4 and 7.5 to 9.7ng/L, respectively. Meanwhile, mean concentrations of E1 and E2 estimated for STP effluents were 4.9 to 6.6 and 0.28 to 0.36ng/L, respectively. These estimated values are similar to measured data as reported in the literatures within the range of uncertainty based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The hazard quotient (HQ) value in the main stem of the Han River was calculated to be far less than 1 because of the dilution effect of the Han River's abundant flow, indicating that most of the Han River ecosystem will not be influenced by these endogenous estrogens. With a 95% cumulative probability, HQ values in the main stem of the Han River for the Jungrang, Nanji, Tanchun, and Seonam STPs were less than 0.18, 0.07, 0.08, and 0.15, respectively. Nevertheless, HQ values >1 were observed in the vicinity of the STP outlets when using the numerical modeling. Our results show that the endocrine disruption potential of E1 and E2 around STP outlets in the main stem of the Han River must be monitored carefully.

A long-term comparative assessment of human health risk to leachate-contaminated groundwater from heavy metal with different liner systems

The handling and management of municipal solid waste (MSW) are major challenges for solid waste management in developing countries. Open dumping is still the most common waste disposal method in India. However, landfilling also causes various environmental, social, and human health impacts. The generation of heavily polluted leachate is a major concern to public health. Engineered barrier systems (EBSs) are commonly used to restrict potentially harmful wastes by preventing the leachate percolation to groundwater and overflow to surface water bodies. The EBSs are made of natural (e.g., soil, clay) and/or synthetic materials such as polymeric materials (e.g., geomembranes, geosynthetic clay liners) by arranging them in layers. Various studies have estimated the human health risk from leachate-contaminated groundwater. However, no studies have been reported to compare the human health risks, particularly due to the leachate contamination with different liner systems. The present study endeavors to quantify the human health risk to contamination from MSW landfill leachate using multiple simulations for various EBSs. To quantify the variation in health risks to groundwater consumption to the child and adult populations, the Turbhe landfill of Navi Mumbai in India has been selected. The leachate and groundwater samples were collected continuously throughout January-September in 2015 from the landfill site, and heavy metal concentrations were analyzed using an inductively coupled plasma system. The LandSim 2.5 Model, a landfill simulator, was used to simulate the landfill activities for various time slices, and non-carcinogenic human health risk was determined for selected heavy metals. Further, the uncertainties associated with multiple input parameters in the health risk model were quantified under a Monte Carlo simulation framework.

High cancer risks by exposure to PCDD/Fs in the neighborhood of an Integrated Waste Management Facility

In 2014, we conducted a study aimed at screening the concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and various trace elements in air and soil samples collected in an urban area of Sant Adrià de Besòs (Barcelona, Spain) in the vicinity of an Integrated Waste Management Facility (IWMF). It consists of a mechanical-biological treatment plant (MBT) and an old municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI). Human health risks for the population living in the area were also assessed. The most worrying result was the high cancer risks estimated for the area (2.5×10^-6). In March 2017, we have carried out a new survey to check if the authorities had taken the necessary and urgent measures to reduce the environmental concentrations of PCDD/Fs -and the human health risks- until acceptable levels. Although the concentrations of PCDD/Fs in soils are currently lower (mean value: 1.66 vs. 3.6ng WHO-TEQ/kg in 2014), they are still are notably higher than those found near other MSWIs of Catalonia. In turn, the levels of PCDD/Fs in air are even higher than in 2014 (mean value: 0.044 vs. 0.026pgWHO-TEQ/m³ in 2014), being also the highest detected in similar zones of Catalonia. The current cancer risk due to PCDD/F exposure for the residents in the neighborhood of the IWMF is 2.3×10^-6, a worrying fact as the 10^-6 threshold continues to be exceeded.

Prenatal exposure estimation of BPA and DEHP using integrated external and internal dosimetry: A case study

Prenatal exposure to Endocrine disruptors (EDs), such as Bisphenol A (BPA) and di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), has been associated with obesity and diabetes diseases in childhood, as well as reproductive, behavioral and neurodevelopment problems. The aim of this study was to estimate the prenatal exposure to BPA and DEHP through food consumption for pregnant women living in Tarragona County (Spain). Probabilistic calculations of prenatal exposure were estimated by integrated external and internal dosimetry modelling, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, using a Monte-Carlo simulation. Physical characteristic data from the cohort, along with food intake information from the questionnaires (concentrations of BPA and DEHP in different food categories and the range of the different food ratios), were used to estimate the value of the total dietary intake for the Tarragona pregnancy cohort. The major contributors to the total dietary intake of BPA were canned fruits and vegetables, followed by canned meat and meat products. In turn, milk and dairy products, followed by ready to eat food (including canned dinners), were the most important contributors to the total dietary intake of DEHP. Despite the dietary variations among the participants, the intakes of both chemicals were considerably lower than their respective current tolerable daily intake (TDI) values established by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Internal dosimetry estimates suggest that the plasma concentrations of free BPA and the most important DEHP metabolite, mono (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), in pregnant women were characterized by transient peaks (associated with meals) and short half-lives (< 2h). In contrast, fetal exposure was characterized by a low and sustained basal BPA and MEHP concentration due to a lack of metabolic activity in the fetus. Therefore, EDs may have a greater effect on developing organs in young children or in the unborn child.

A Framework for Assessing Uncertainty Associated with Human Health Risks from MSW Landfill Leachate Contamination

Landfilling is a cost-effective method, which makes it a widely used practice around the world, especially in developing countries. However, because of the improper management of landfills, high leachate leakage can have adverse impacts on soils, plants, groundwater, aquatic organisms, and, subsequently, human health. A comprehensive survey of the literature finds that the probabilistic quantification of uncertainty based on estimations of the human health risks due to landfill leachate contamination has rarely been reported. Hence, in the present study, the uncertainty about the human health risks from municipal solid waste landfill leachate contamination to children and adults was quantified to investigate its long-term risks by using a Monte Carlo simulation framework for selected heavy metals. The Turbhe sanitary landfill of Navi Mumbai, India, which was commissioned in the recent past, was selected to understand the fate and transport of heavy metals in leachate. A large residential area is located near the site, which makes the risk assessment problem both crucial and challenging. In this article, an integral approach in the form of a framework has been proposed to quantify the uncertainty that is intrinsic to human health risk estimation. A set of nonparametric cubic splines was fitted to identify the nonlinear seasonal trend in leachate quality parameters. LandSim 2.5, a landfill simulator, was used to simulate the landfill activities for various time slices, and further uncertainty in noncarcinogenic human health risk was estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation followed by univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses.

Source apportionment and health risk assessment of trace metals in surface soils of Beijing metropolitan, China

Understanding the exposure risks of trace metals in contamination soils and apportioning their sources are the basic preconditions for soil pollution prevention and control. In this study, a detailed investigation was conducted to assess the health risks of trace metals in surface soils of Beijing which is one of the most populated cities in the world and to apportion their potential sources. The data set of metals for 12 elements in 240 soil samples was collected. Pollution index and enrichment factor were used to identify the general contamination characteristic of soil metals. The probabilistic risk model was employed for health risk assessment, and a chemometrics technique, multivariate curve resolution-weighted alternating least squares (MCR-WALS), was applied to apportion sources. Results suggested that the soils in Beijing metropolitan region were contaminated by Hg, Cd, Cu, As, and Pb in varying degree, lying in the moderate pollution level. As a whole, the health risks posed by soil metals were acceptable or close to tolerable. Comparatively speaking, children and adult females were the relatively vulnerable populations for the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks, respectively. Atmospheric deposition, fertilizers and agrochemicals, and natural source were apportioned as the potential sources determining the contents of trace metals in soils of Beijing area with contributions of 15.5%-16.4%, 5.9%-7.7% and 76.0%-78.6%, respectively.

An integrated simulation and optimization approach for managing human health risks of atmospheric pollutants by coal-fired power plants

This research developed a simulation-aided nonlinear programming model (SNPM). This model incorporated the consideration of pollutant dispersion modeling, and the management of coal blending and the related human health risks within a general modeling framework In SNPM, the simulation effort (i.e., California puff [CALPUFF]) was used to forecast the fate of air pollutants for quantifying the health risk under various conditions, while the optimization studies were to identify the optimal coal blending strategies from a number of alternatives. To solve the model, a surrogate-based indirect search approach was proposed, where the support vector regression (SVR) was used to create a set of easy-to-use and rapid-response surrogates for identifying the function relationships between coal-blending operating conditions and health risks. Through replacing the CALPUFF and the corresponding hazard quotient equation with the surrogates, the computation efficiency could be improved. The developed SNPM was applied to minimize the human health risk associated with air pollutants discharged from Gaojing and Shijingshan power plants in the west of Beijing. Solution results indicated that it could be used for reducing the health risk of the public in the vicinity of the two power plants, identifying desired coal blending strategies for decision makers, and considering a proper balance between coal purchase cost and human health risk.

IMPLICATIONS

A simulation-aided nonlinear programming model (SNPM) is developed. It integrates the advantages of CALPUFF and nonlinear programming model. To solve the model, a surrogate-based indirect search approach based on the combination of support vector regression and genetic algorithm is proposed. SNPM is applied to reduce the health risk caused by air pollutants discharged from Gaojing and Shijingshan power plants in the west of Beijing. Solution results indicate that it is useful for generating coal blending schemes, reducing the health risk of the public, reflecting the trade-offbetween coal purchase cost and health risk.

Spatial and temporal variation, source profile, and formation mechanisms of PCDD/FS in the atmosphere of an e-waste recycling area, south China

The present study investigated the impact of typical electronic waste (e-waste) dismantling activities on the distribution of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in the adjacent atmospheric environment. The target areas included the town of Longtang, a well known e-waste recycling site, and 2 affected neighborhoods, all of which were within the city of Qingyuan,Guangdong Province, China. Air samples were collected from the 3 locations and analyzed following the standard methods. The results showed that the atmospheric PCDD/F level in Longtang was 159.41 pg m(-3), which was approximately 16 to 17 times higher than its neighborhoods and 2 to 4 orders of magnitude higher than baseline levels reported for urban cities of the world. The homologue profiles were quite different from the typical urban air patterns, as de novo synthesis was likely to be the dominant formation pathway of the detected PCDD/Fs. The seasonal variations were minor, and the concentration change of PCDD/Fs between day and night did not follow a clear pattern. Given the unique atmospheric PCDD/F concentrations, similar homologue profiles, and the elemental carbon/organic carbon relationships of the 3 sampling sites, the relatively high dioxin levels in its 2 neighborhoods were most likely the result of the primitive e-waste dismantling activities undertaken in the town of Longtang. A simple risk assessment also showed that the residents of Qingyuan were at high risk of exposure to PCDD/Fs.

Seasonal surveillance of airborne PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs using passive samplers to assess human health risks

This study aimed at determining the air concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) in Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) by means of passive air sampling. Seasonal trends in airborne levels were also assessed by comparing the results of 6-month surveys conducted between spring of 2010 and autumn of 2011. These data were used to estimate exposure for the population living nearby and to evaluate the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks associated to inhalation of those persistent organic pollutants (POPs). No seasonal differences were noted in POP concentrations among the sampling campaigns. The highest levels of PCDD/Fs were found in the 3rd campaign, while significantly lower levels of PCNs were found in the 4th survey. The concentrations of PCDD/F and PCB congeners, as well as those of PCN homologues, did not change significantly with time, which indicates that the MSWI does not have an important influence on the surrounding environment. The levels of POPs near the facility are at the lower part of the range, when compared with data from the scientific literature. Consequently, the current levels of POPs in ambient air around the MSWI are associated to a low human exposure to PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs, which means a lack of additional health risks for the local population. In addition, passive samplers have been confirmed to be a good tool for local environmental monitoring, as well as a good method to study seasonal trends in POP concentrations in air.

Spatial distribution of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzo-furans (PCDDs/Fs) in dust, soil, sediment and health risk assessment from an intensive electronic waste recycling site in Southern China

Workshop dust, soil and sediment samples were collected to investigate the level and spatial distribution of PCDDs/Fs at an intensive electronic waste (e-waste) recycling site in Southern China, and also to characterize the dioxin emission in different e-waste recycling procedures. The concentrations of total PCDDs/Fs ranged from 1866 to 234292 ng kg(-1) for the dust samples, from 3187 to 63998 ng kg(-1) dry wt for the top soils, and 33718 ng kg(-1) for the surface sediment. All the samples were characterized by abnormally high concentrations of OCDD and an extremely low portion of PCDFs. Different e-waste recycling procedures may generate different congener profiles. Open burning and dismantling were the two procedures emitting relatively higher concentrations of PCDDs/Fs in this case, indicating that low-tech recycling operations were one of the major contributors of PCDDs/Fs to the environment. The variation and distinction of the concentrations and homologue/congener profiles among different environmental matrices reveal the characteristics of contaminant environmental behavior and fate during the transportation from "source" to "sink". Daily intake of PCDDs/Fs through soil ingestion and dermal absorption was negligible, but the rough estimated total PCDD/F intake dose far exceeded the tolerance daily intake value of 4 pg-TEQ per kg per day recommended by WHO, indicating that residents in Longtang were at a high risk of exposure to dioxins, especially children.

Probabilistic health risk assessment of carcinogenic emissions from a MSW gasification plant

Health risk assessment due to the atmospheric emissions of carcinogenic pollutants (PCDD/Fs and Cd) from a waste gasification plant is performed by means of a probabilistic approach based on probability density functions for the description of the input data of the model parameters involved in the assessment. These functions incorporate both the epistemic and stochastic uncertainty of the input data (namely, the emission rate of the pollutants) and of all the parameters used for individual exposure assessment through the pathways of inhalation, soil ingestion and dermal contact, and diet. The uncertainty is propagated throughout the evaluation by Monte Carlo technique, resulting in the probability distribution of the individual risk. The median risk levels nearby the plant are in the 10(-8)-10(-10) range, ten-fold lower than the deterministic estimate based on precautionary values for the input data; however, the very upper percentiles (>95th) of the risk distribution can exceed the conventional 10(-6) reference value. The estimated risk is almost entirely determined by the Cd exposure through the diet; the pathways arising from PCDD/Fs exposure are without any practical significance, suggesting that the emission control should focus on Cd in order to reduce the carcinogenic risk. Risk variance decomposition shows the prevailing influence on the estimated risk of the Cd concentration at the emission stack: thus, for a more accurate risk assessment the efforts should focus primarily on the definition of its probability density function.

Assessing human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in a petrochemical region utilizing data from environmental biomonitors

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are toxic compounds that have been classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as probable or possible human carcinogens. Human exposure to PAH is usually assessed by considering data from a single air monitoring station as being representative of a large region; however, air pollution levels change on small spatial scales and thus also affect environmental exposure. The use of environmental biomonitors is a useful tool to assess the levels of PAH with high spatial resolution. The aims of this study were to (1) assess human exposure to PAH in a petrochemical region in Portugal, integrating data from environmental biomonitors (lichens), air, and soil in a regional area, and (2) determine the health risks associated with exposure to PAH with high spatial resolution. Bearing this in mind, benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) equivalent concentrations in samples of soil, air, and lichens collected in the study region were used to assess human exposure through different pathways, including inhalation of air and soil particles, ingestion of soil, and dermal contact with soil. Human health risk was calculated through the Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR). BaP equivalent concentrations found in the region ranged from 6.9 to 46.05 ng BaPeq/g in lichens, from 16.45 to 162.02 ng BaPeq/g in soils, and from 0.02 to 0.16 ng BaPeq/m³ in air, indicative of high variability in this regional area. Human exposure to PAH varied between 976 and 42,877 ng BaPeq/d. When considering all exposure pathways, ILCR values were between 10⁻⁴ and 10⁻³. Considering only inhalation, ILCR values were between 10⁻⁶ and 10⁻⁵. The main risk seemed to arise from soil (either ingestion or inhalation of resuspended soil particles). The high spatial resolution of our environmental data allowed for detection of critical exposure levels at unexpected sites. Our results identified important areas where health studies on local populations need to be focused, and where environmental levels of PAH need to be monitored over time in order to protect human health.

A risk-based decision tool for the management of organic waste in agriculture and farming activities (FARMERS)

Currently, specific management guidelines must be implemented for guaranteeing the safe reuse of organic waste in agriculture. With that aim, this work was focused on the development of a decision support tool for a safe and sustainable management of cattle manure as fertiliser in pastureland, to control and limit metal accumulation in soil and to reduce metal biotransfer from soil to other compartments. The system was developed on the basis of an environmental risk assessment multi-compartmental model. In contrast to other management tools, a long-term dynamic modelling approach was selected considering the persistence of metals in the environment. A detailed description of the underlying flow equations which accounts for distribution, human exposure and risk characterisation of metals in the assessed scenario was presented, as well as model parameterization. The tool was implemented in Visual C++ and is structured on a data base, where all required data is stored, the risk assessment model and a GIS module for the visualization of the scenario characteristics and the results obtained (risk indexes). The decision support system allows choosing among three estimation options, depending on the needs of the user, which provide information to both farmers and policy makers. The first option is useful for evaluating the adequacy of the current management practices of the different farms, and the remaining ones provides information on the measures that can be taken to carry out a fertilising plan without exceeding risk to human health. Among other results, maximum values of application rates of manure, maximum permissible metal content of manure and maximum application times in a particular scenario can be estimated by this system. To illustrate tool application, a real case study with data corresponding to different farms of a milk production cooperative was presented.

Exposure to heavy metals and PCDD/Fs by the population living in the vicinity of a hazardous waste landfill in Catalonia, Spain: health risk assessment

Most fly ashes produced in municipal waste incinerators of Catalonia (Spain) are deposited in a hazardous waste landfill (HWL) placed in Castellolí (Barcelona). This facility means a concern for the population living nearby. In response to this, we performed a probabilistic study focused on assessing human health risks derived from environmental exposure to heavy metals and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) around the HWL. Concentrations of various metals and PCDD/Fs were determined in soil and air samples collected at the HWL, and in 4 locations around it. Health risks were evaluated according to the distance from the sampling locations to the HWL (near and far-sites). In general terms, metal and PCCD/F levels were relatively low in air and soil samples. However, concentrations of PCDD/Fs, as well as those of some metals, were found to be relatively higher in the HWL and Castellolí (the nearest village) samples than in those collected far away, resulting in a slight increase of exposure to those pollutants. Anyhow, the current concentrations of metals and PCDD/Fs suggest that it is highly unlikely that there are any additional non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks for the population living near the HWL.

Human health risks of petroleum-contaminated groundwater

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE

The volatile organic compounds Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene and Xylene (BTEX) are commonly found in petroleum derivatives and, at relatively high levels, can be associated with human health risks. Due to industrial activities, accidental petroleum spills are the main route of soil and groundwater contamination. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the indoor health risks due to tap water consumption contaminated by BTEX.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

BTEX indoor exposure can occur through three principal pathways: inhalation, ingestion and dermal absorption. A multiphase and multicomponent model was used to simulate BTEX transport in groundwater. For evaluation of human risks due to the use of contaminated tap water, a mathematical model was elaborated.

RESULTS

BTEX concentrations in a drinking well were obtained as a function over time. These concentrations were used to obtain the exposure due to the use of water from the contaminated drinking well. In addition to showing the highest concentration in water, benzene was the compound that remained for a longer period before being completely degraded. For all the evaluated BTEX, oral ingestion was also the main pathway of exposure for adults, whereas the contribution of inhalation and oral exposition in children were seen to be of the same magnitude. The sensitivity analysis of BTEX total dose for adults showed that direct ingestion was the most significant factor, followed by shower time, volume of the shower room, inhalation rate, and shower flow rate. For children, the most significant variable was also direct ingestion, followed by shower time, volume of the shower room, and body weight.

DISCUSSION

In the current design situation, there would not be any health risks by the use of BTEX-contaminated water to the general population living in the neighborhood of the petroleum spill. Therefore, no remediation measures in the area of the spill would be necessary.

CONCLUSIONS

The present results indicate that the design of a good scenario can perform an accuracy risk assessment. This model can serve as a useful tool for predicting indoor exposure to substances for which no direct data are available, reducing monitoring efforts and observing how different processes affect outcomes.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES

These preliminary data allow the establishment of a basis for further investigations focusing on efficiently recovering petroleum from contaminated sites.

Health risk assessment of air emissions from a municipal solid waste incineration plant--a case study

A health risk assessment of long-term emissions of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic air pollutants has been carried out for the municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) of the city of Taranto, Italy. Ground level air concentrations and soil deposition of carcinogenic (Polychlorinated Dibenzo-p-Dioxins/Furans and Cd) and non-carcinogenic (Pb and Hg) pollutants have been estimated using a well documented atmospheric dispersion model. Health risk values for air inhalation, dermal contact, soil and food ingestion have been calculated based on a combination of these concentrations and a matrix of environmental exposure factors. Exposure of the surrounding population has been addressed for different release scenarios based on four pollutants, four exposure pathways and two receptor groups (children and adults). Spatial risk distribution and cancer excess cases projected from plant emissions have been compared with background mortality records. Estimated results based on the MSWI emissions show: (1) individual risks well below maximum acceptable levels, (2) very small incremental cancer risk compared with background level.

Health risk assessment of background PCDD/F exposure levels in Kocaeli, Turkey

An estimation and assessment of the polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzo furans (PCDD/Fs) exposure levels for the people living in Kocaeli, the most industrialized area of Turkey, are presented. The information is based on the results of PCDD/F analyses in the samples collected from various environmental media and the multimedia exposure assessment methodology. Exposure scenarios were constructed on a site-specific basis by combining the exposure pathways appropriate to the area, and the activity patterns of the people living in Kocaeli. The model showed that the exposure levels of PCDD/Fs were in the range of 3.7-13.1 pg I-TEQ.kg-1 bw for adult receptors, which are higher than the recommended TDI value of 2 pg TEQ.kg-1 bw. The PCDD/F intakes for rural receptors were estimated to be three times higher than those for urban and semi-urban receptors due mainly to the consumption of locally grown foods. The assessment of the contributions of various exposure pathways to the total exposure and the sensitivity analysis performed based on a probabilistic approach indicated that PCDD/F intakes for adult receptors are directly proportional to the locally grown fraction of plant groups consumed.

Estimating risk during showering exposure to VOCs of workers in a metal-degreasing facility

The incremental risk of workers in a metal-degreasing facility exposed to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) present in the water supply during showering was estimated. A probabilistic and worst-case approach using specific-site concentration data and a generalized multipathway exposure model was applied. Estimates of hazard index and lifetime cancer risk were analyzed for each chemical and each route of exposure (inhalation and dermal absorption). The results showed that dermal exposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) and tetrachloroethylene (perchloroethylene, PCE) represented the main contribution to total risk. Although the inhalation route did not produce significant exposure, it was mainly influenced by the liquid flow rate of the shower. Lower values of this parameter during showering resulted in a significant reduction of both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk, while decreasing water temperature produced a minimal effect on exposure by this pathway. The results obtained in the present study indicated that significant exposures of workers may be produced during showering in metal degreasing installations where releases to water of VOCs occur. A sensitivity analysis was developed for investigating the effect of scenario parameters on exposure. Although site-specific data were employed, the exposure of workers was assessed in a model scenario and thus the quantification of risk is associated with uncertainty. Considering that occupational exposure to organic solvents of workers in metal-degreasing facilities may also be significant, risk assessment must be included in the planning of this kind of industrial installation.

Health risk analysis of PCDD/F emissions from MSW incineration: comparison of probabilistic and deterministic approaches

Incremental lifetime health risks due to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) emitted from municipal waste incineration (MSWI) facilities were evaluated for resident population in the area of the plant. Risk assessment was performed through a multipathway combined probabilistic/deterministic approach for analyzing the effects of uncertainty and intrinsic variability of the main PCDD/F emission related parameters on final predicted values. Exposure through direct inhalation of contaminated air, soil ingestion, soil dermal contact and diet were considered, with the propagation of the variability of input parameters throughout the evaluation performed with Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The application to a case study representative of two different technological scenarios (modern facilities equipped with BAT - Best Available Technology - and older incinerators) in a location site typical of Northern Italy situation results in median values of the maximum individual excess risk on the order of 10(-9) and 10(-7) for most recent and older plant configurations, respectively. Corresponding ratios for the 90th and 10th percentile values are around 7 and 9. Individual risk estimates derived for the same scenarios from conventional deterministic approaches, where large conservative assumptions are normally adopted for compensating the lack of knowledge about uncertainty, are essentially comparable with maximum values resulting from the probabilistic approach, thus leading to situations with extreme and very low probabilities of occurrence. PCDD/F health risks from MSWI emissions might thus result largely overestimated if real emission characteristics are not properly considered in the assessment procedure. Sensitivity analysis for identifying the contribution of different input parameters on final predicted risk variance indicates, for the area considered in the simulation, a prevailing influence of PCDD/F stack concentration, with exposures arising from soil deposition phenomena substantially negligible: this latter result further points out the requirements for a very careful identification of base input data values for PCDD/F stack concentrations, at least for those situations where plants are located nearby urban areas.

Application of cattle manure as fertilizer in pastureland: estimating the incremental risk due to metal accumulation employing a multicompartment model

Specific-site data of metal concentration in cattle manure from NW Spain and a multicompartment fate and exposure model were used to evaluate metal fate and the main routes of exposure after a 100 year period of application of cattle manure as fertiliser in pastureland. Risk assessment was performed as a probabilistic analysis, and using a conservative worst-case exposure scenario. An accumulation model was used to predict the metal concentration in each environmental medium of concern. The incremental risk was estimated for the population inhabiting the surroundings of the area by a general multiexposure model. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to analyse uncertainty of the results. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify the contribution to variance by the different metals and exposure routes. Among the five pathways evaluated, the ingestion of meat and milk from cattle grazing in the area represents the main contribution to total exposure. The results indicate that the incremental risk to human health for people living in the surroundings of pasturelands due to continuous application of cattle manure after a 100 year period are not negligible for the metals considered (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), posing a total Reasonable Maximum Exposure (RME) of 0.75, being the ingestion of meat the main exposure pathway.

Waste incineration--how big is the health risk? A quantitative method to allow comparison with other health risks

OBJECTIVE

To assess the health risk from a medium-sized waste incinerator and develop a single comparable figure to quantify overall risk.

METHOD

We used a prospective health risk assessment utilizing US Environmental Protection Agency Human Health Risk Assessment Protocol (HHRAP) for Hazardous Waste Combustion Facilities and UK coefficients for the impact of sulphur dioxide and particulates. Calculations were based on a resident population of 25,398 living within 5.5 km of the site.

RESULTS

Anxiety, employment, noise, occupational risks, road accidents, and reduced use of landfill were all considered to have a potential, but unquantifiable, effect on health. Stack emissions over 25 years in a population of 25,398 within 5.5 km of the stack would result in an additional 0.018 cancers, 0.46 deaths brought forward due to sulphur dioxide and 0.02 deaths due to fine particles. The overall risk of dying due to emissions in any one year was 2.49 x 10(-7) or 1 in 4 million.

CONCLUSION

To facilitate better public understanding of the comparative risk of incinerator emissions, we propose a simple method of deriving a single annual risk figure allowing comparison with the risk of dying from other causes with which the public is more familiar.

Dispersion modeling of PM10 released during decontamination activities

The decontamination and decommissioning of radioactively contaminated structures and facilities, volume reduction of massive metal structures, and demolition of large concrete structures, result in release of large quantities of contaminants that become airborne and thus could be inhaled by workers and population living in the neighborhood. In order to provide adequate protection to the workers, adequate monitoring of the airborne particulates and proper models that predict the dispersion of the airborne contaminants are needed. The dispersion model will enable development of decision tools on the extent of decontamination that needs to be performed prior to dismantlement and the optimization of personal protective equipment requirements during D&D operations. The Gaussian plume dispersion model is used in this study to predict the dispersion of airborne particulate PM10 (dp<10 microm) released from: (1) a 35 m height contaminant plant where the plume is affected by the presence of 36 buildings around the emission source, (2) a building during decontamination and removal of process equipment and (3) demolition of contaminant building. The potential impact of PM10 on 180 receptors located at five downwind distances between 0.1 and 20 km around the emission source was performed. A short-term (1-48 h) prediction of average concentration of PM10 from point and area sources on receptors located at ground level was obtained. The concentrations of PM10 over 24h time period were compared to the U.S. air quality standards. The results obtained in the course of this study are used to predict the inhalation exposures of workers and population living in neighborhood.

Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool: test case for depleted uranium (DU)

A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites.

Health risk assessment of PCDD/F emissions from a hazardous and medical waste incinerator in Turkey

A multimedia risk assessment procedure was conducted to determine the fate and transport of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) emissions from the Izmit Hazardous and Medical Waste Incinerator (IZAYDAS) in Turkey and their potential health risks. Congener concentrations in ambient air and their deposition rates were determined by an air dispersion model (ISCST3). Their transfer to some plant groups and animal tissues was predicted by food chain modeling. Exposure scenarios were produced based on three receptor groups (urban, semiurban, and rural) and five subgroups determined according to ages. Daily intakes of PCDD/Fs via exposure pathways were determined based on three different emission scenarios for each group and subgroup. Estimated incremental PCDD/F doses caused by the incinerator emissions in central-tendency scenario were computed as between 2.31 x 10(-6) and 0.008 pg TEQ kg(-1) bodyweight (bw) day(-1) on average for all the receptors other than infants in all the settings, while the range was 3.01 x 10(-5)-0.081 pg TEQ kg(-1) bw day(-1) for infants. Sensitivity analysis showed that the consumption of vegetal products and their locally grown fractions are the most significant parameters in the exposure to PCDD/Fs in the area.

Health risk assessment of emissions of dioxins and furans from a municipal waste incinerator: comparison with other emission sources

The aim of this study was to calculate the incremental lifetime-risk to dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) for the population living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), as well as to establish the potential reduction on human health risks as a consequence of the adaptation to the EU legislation on pollutant emissions from the MSWI stack. Analytical and modelled results were obtained. PCDD/F concentrations in environmental media were determined by means of a simple-compartment-multimedia model (air-soil-vegetation model). Predicted and measured PCDD/F concentrations in soils and vegetation were compared, and the effects of MSWI emissions in the environmental media were determined. Human health risks due to PCDD/F emissions from the MSWI were also estimated based on I-TEQ measured and modelled in various environmental media. Cancer risks due to PCDD/F emissions of the plant were 1.07E-07 and 3.08E-09, before and after installation of the clean air system, respectively. On the other hand, cancer risks due to other PCDD/F emission sources in the area were 5.54E-06 and 1.86E-06. Total PCDD/F cancer risks (including those from diet) for the population living in the vicinity of the MSWI were 1.3E-04 and 4.25E-05, respectively (67.6% of reduction). Hazard ratio for total PCDD/F exposure (including diet) decreased during the last 5 years from 1.16 to 0.38. The above data show that other emission sources of PCDD/Fs also have a notable environmental impact on the area under direct influence of the MSWI.

Pollutants emitted by a cement plant: health risks for the population living in the neighborhood

The aim of this study was to investigate the health risks due to combustor emissions in the manufacturing of Portland cement for the population living in the neighborhood of a cement kiln in Catalonia, Spain. Pollutants emitted to the atmosphere in the course of cement production were modeled. The ISC3-ST model was applied to estimate air dispersion of the contaminants emitted by the cement plant. Air concentrations of NO(2), SO(2), PM(10), metals, and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), as well as the potential exposure in the vicinity of the facility, were assessed via models based on US EPA guidance documents. PCDD/F and metal concentrations were also modeled for soil and vegetation. Based on these concentrations, the levels of human exposure were calculated. Individual cancer and noncancer risks for the emissions of the cement kiln were assessed. Health effects due to NO(2), SO(2), and PM(10) emissions were also evaluated. Risk assessment was performed as a deterministic analysis. The main individual risk in the population was evaluated in a central-tendency and a high-end approach. The results show that the incremental individual risk due to emissions of the cement plant is very low not only with regard to health effects, but also in relation to toxicological and cancer risks produced by pollutants such as metals and PCDD/Fs emitted by the cement kiln.