Situated Optimism: Specific Outcome Expectancies and Self-Regulation

Temporal aspects of unrealistic optimism and robustness of this bias: A longitudinal study in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Numerous studies on unrealistic optimism (UO) have shown that people claim they are less exposed to COVID-19 infection than others. Yet, it has not been assessed if this bias evolves; does it escalate or diminish when the information about the threat changes? The present paper fills this gap. For 12 months 120 participants estimated their own and their peers' risk of COVID-19 infection. Results show that UO regarding COVID-19 infection is an enduring phenomenon-It was the dominant tendency throughout almost the entire study and was never substituted by Unrealistic Pessimism. While the presence of UO-bias was constant, its magnitude changed. We tested possible predictors of these changes: the daily new cases/deaths, the changes in governmental restrictions and the mobility of participants' community. Out of these predictors, only changes in governmental restrictions proved to be significant- when the restrictions tightened, UO increased.

The Effect of Religious Beliefs and Attitudes in Intrinsic and Extrinsic Optimism and Pessimism in Players of Games of Chance

Games of chance usually make people feel a whirlwind of emotions, especially in gambling. While those games depend more on luck than on individuals’ skills, optimism should be a distinctive feature. Considering the classic literature of the effects of religiosity on risk behaviors, the issue of the influence of religiosity on optimism in players of games of chance has been less studied, especially when we considered optimism as a multidimensional concept comprising intrinsic and extrinsic optimism and pessimism. Aims: To analyze the effect of religious beliefs and attitudes in optimism and pessimism dimensions in players of games of chance and gambling. Method: The sample consists of 271 recurring players of games of chance and gambling, who answered a questionnaire composed of measures of religious beliefs and attitudes, optimism, pessimism, and estimates of future occurrences, evidencing good psychometric properties. Results: Players are moderately religious and more optimistic than pessimistic, estimating a chance of 36% of highly unlikely desirable events. The structural model showed an overall influence of religious beliefs and attitudes higher on optimism (R2 = 44%) than on pessimism (R2 = 5%). However, the distinction between intrinsic and extrinsic optimism has shown that the players anchor their optimism in different kinds of beliefs. Extrinsic desirable events, like winning the lottery, were more predicted by religious beliefs and attitudes in comparison with intrinsic desirable events. Inversely, religious beliefs and attitudes tend to predict more intrinsic pessimism in comparison with intrinsic optimism. Conclusions: Optimism is not a one-dimensional construct, should be analyzed considering the dichotomies of optimism/pessimism and intrinsic/extrinsic. In recurring players of games of chance and gambling, religious beliefs and attitudes predicted more optimism than pessimism, being more associated with extrinsic than intrinsic desirable events. More intrinsically pessimistic players seem to recur to religiosity to anchor their positive expectations.

Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe

Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one's risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network (n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries-France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal.

Dynamic Risk Perceptions in Times of Avian and Seasonal Influenza Epidemics: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Design

Infectious diseases pose a serious threat to humans. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how accurately people perceive these risks. However, accuracy can be operationalized differently depending on the standard of comparison. The present study investigated accuracy in risk perceptions for three infectious diseases (avian influenza, seasonal influenza, common cold) using three different standards for accuracy: Social comparison (self vs. others' risk perceptions), general problem level (risk perceptions for diseases with varying threat levels), and dynamic problem level (risk perceptions during epidemics/seasons vs. nonepidemic/off-season times). Four online surveys were conducted using a repeated cross-sectional design. Two surveys were conducted during epidemics/seasons of avian influenza, seasonal influenza, and common cold in 2006 (n = 387) and 2016 (n = 370) and two surveys during nonepidemic/off-season times for the three diseases in 2009 (n = 792) during a swine flu outbreak and in 2018 (n = 422) during no outbreak of zoonotic influenza. While on average participants felt less at risk than others, indicating an optimistic bias, risk perceptions matched the magnitude of risk associated with the three infectious diseases. Importantly, a significant three-way interaction indicated dynamic accuracy in risk perceptions: Participants felt more at risk for seasonal influenza and common cold during influenza and cold seasons, compared with off-season times. However, these dynamic increases were more pronounced in the perceived risk for others than for oneself (optimistic bias). The results emphasize the importance of using multiple approaches to assess accuracy of risk perception as they provided different information on how accurately people gauge their risk when facing infectious diseases.

Does teaching Optimism lower Burnout in residency training- a pilot study

Background: Residents frequently experience burnout. Multiple interventions to decrease the risk of burnout have had inconsistent results. In non-medical settings, improving optimism promotes a positive outlook and enhances well-being. Thus, psychological interventions that improve optimism could have potential to decrease the risk for burnout.

Objective: Using Lazarus’ Ways of Coping as an organizational framework, this intervention sought to evaluate the impact of an optimism curriculum on residents’ burnout.

Methods: Thirty-six Internal Medicine residents participated in an optimism improvement program from November 2019 to April 2020. We determined pre- and post-curriculum measures of optimism, happiness, and burnout with validated surveys. The Optimism Curriculum was comprised of three one-hour long sessions, which included lectures, group and self-reflective exercises. A post - curriculum evaluation rating the effectiveness of the program was administered separately.

Results: Thirty-four out of thirty-six residents completed the post curricular surveys. Individuals with low optimism scores had a higher score for burnout compared to those with higher optimism scores. The post-intervention survey showed numerical improvement in optimism, happiness and burnout, although these changes were not statistically significant. The post-intervention survey showed a decrease in the measure of burnout; however, this was not significant (p = 0.24) with an effect size of 0.34 (Cohen’s d).

Conclusions: Teaching optimism to residents with the objective of decreasing the risk of burnout is feasible and easily integrated into residency education sessions. The encouraging results of this pilot study lay the foundation for additional studies and suggest a practical role for implementing optimism curricula in residency training programs.

An Immersive Serious Game for the Behavioral Assessment of Psychological Needs

Motivation is an essential component in mental health and well-being. In this area, researchers have identified four psychological needs that drive human behavior: attachment, self-esteem, orientation and control, and maximization of pleasure and minimization of distress. Various self-reported scales and interviews tools have been developed to assess these dimensions. Despite the validity of these, they are showing limitations in terms of abstractation and decontextualization and biases, such as social desirability bias, that can affect responses veracity. Conversely, virtual serious games (VSGs), that are games with specific purposes, can potentially provide more ecologically valid and objective assessments than traditional approaches. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a VSG to assess the four personality needs. Sixty subjects participated in five VSG sessions. Results showed that the VSG was able to recognize attachment, self-esteem, and orientation and control needs with a high accuracy, and to a lesser extent maximization of pleasure and minimization of distress need. In conclusion, this study showed the feasibility to use a VSG to enhance the assessment of psychological behavioral-based need, overcoming biases presented by traditional assessment.

“Optimism Is a Strategy for Making a Better Future”

Abstract. Cancer is a deadly disease that can lead to psychological suffering and decreased quality of life (QoL). Personality has been proven to have an effect on QoL and, in particular, Dispositional Optimism (DO) has been studied in relation to overcoming health crisis. The aim of this systematic review is to deepen the state of art of the relationship between QoL and DO in cancer patients. PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched. Fifteen studies were included with a total of 5,249 cancer patients. All of the studies consider the relationship between DO and QoL, some studies analyze the correlation between the two variables and found a positive association. The majority of the studies investigate the predictive power of DO over QoL and most of them found DO to be predictive of a higher QoL. Results confirmed the association between DO and QoL in a sample of cancer patients. These results could influence the clinical practice as DO has been proven to have a beneficial effect on mental and physical health.

Trait Optimism and Work from Home Adjustment in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Considering the Mediating Role of Situational Optimism and the Moderating Role of Cultural Optimism

An organization’s capacity to sustain a crisis, and to benefit from work-from-home (WFH) arrangements in routine times, is dependent on its employees’ ability to successfully adjust to WFH conditions. The COVID-19 pandemic, which forced vast numbers of employees worldwide to WFH, provides an unprecedented opportunity to identify factors that facilitate WFH adjustment. Leveraging this opportunity and drawing from theories on person-environment fit and work adjustment, we consider trait optimism as a possible facilitator of WFH adjustment during the pandemic. We further investigate how situational optimism and cultural (country-level) optimism contribute to the relationship between trait optimism and WFH adjustment. Using data from 388 employees in five countries, we find that trait optimism positively relates to WFH adjustment. This relationship is partly mediated by situational expectations regarding health/financial benefits of WFH amid the pandemic. Moreover, trait optimism is more strongly related to WFH adjustment in countries with high (vs. low) cultural optimism. This study addresses the call to investigate whether and how personality traits relate to WFH adjustment. Our findings can improve organizations’ ability to select and train employees who WFH, and to enhance operational resilience to future crises. Managers in global firms can draw from our results to understand how cultural differences affect the ease with which WFH is adopted, and to develop country-specific WFH practices.

Learning to Look at the Bright Side of Life: Attention Bias Modification Training Enhances Optimism Bias

Identifying neurocognitive mechanisms underlying optimism bias is essential to understand its benefits for well-being and mental health. The combined cognitive biases hypothesis suggests that biases (e.g., in expectancies and attention) interact and mutually enforce each other. Whereas, in line with this hypothesis, optimistic expectancies have been shown to guide attention to positive information, reverse causal effects have not been investigated yet. Revealing such bidirectional optimism-attention interactions both on a behavioral and neural level could explain how cognitive biases contribute to a self-sustaining upward spiral of positivity. In this behavioral study, we hypothesized that extensive training to direct attention to positive information enhances optimism bias. To test this hypothesis, for 2 weeks, 149 participants underwent either daily online 80-trial attention bias modification training (ABMT) toward accepting faces and away from rejecting faces or neutral control training. Participants in the ABMT group were instructed to click as quickly as possible on the accepting face among 15 rejecting faces randomly displayed on a 4-by-4 matrix; participants in the control group were instructed to click on the five-petaled flower depicted among 15 seven-petaled flowers. Comparative optimism bias and state optimism were measured via questionnaires before training, after one training week, and after two training weeks. ABMT enhanced comparative optimism bias, whereas control training did not. Our findings reveal that ABMT toward positive social information causally influences comparative optimism bias and may, thereby trigger the biases' benefits for well-being and mental health. These results can (a) stimulate future neurophysiological research in the area of positive psychology; and (b) reveal an innovative low-cost and easy-to-access intervention that may support psychotherapy in times of rising numbers of patients with psychological disorders.

Goal Adjustment and Well-Being: The Role of Optimism in Patients with Chronic Pain

Background

Chronic pain directly or indirectly interferes with valued personal goals. Goal adjustment plays a central role in patients’ adaptation. Studies on the relationship between optimism and goal regulation have shown that people with high dispositional optimism adjust their goals in a flexible way, and that flexible goal adjustment promotes quality of life.

Purpose

The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship among optimism, goal adjustment, and adaptation in patients with chronic pain.

Methods

A sample of 258 patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain completed questionnaires on optimism, reengagement, disengagement, flexibility, tenacity, rumination, purpose in life, well-being, pain intensity, daily functioning, and impairment.

Results

Structural equation modeling analysis showed that optimism had a positive association with reengagement, flexibility, and tenacity, and a negative association with disengagement. Disengagement was positively associated with rumination, whereas reengagement, flexibility, and tenacity were associated with higher levels of purpose in life, which were strongly associated with adaptation in patients with chronic pain.

Conclusions

This study supports the conclusions of previous research on the role of goal adjustment as a mediator variable between optimism and well-being.

Development of the State Optimism Measure

BACKGROUND

Optimism, or positive expectations about the future, is associated with better health. It is commonly assessed as a trait, but it may change over time and circumstance. Accordingly, we developed a measure of state optimism.

METHODS

An initial 29-item pool was generated based on literature reviews and expert consultations. It was administered to three samples: sample 1 was a general healthy population (n = 136), sample 2 was people with cardiac disease (n = 96), and sample 3 was persons recovering from problematic substance use (n = 265). Exploratory factor analysis and item-level descriptive statistics were used to select items to form a unidimensional State Optimism Measure (SOM). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed to test fit.

RESULTS

The selected seven SOM items demonstrated acceptable to high factor loadings on a single dominant factor (loadings: 0.64-0.93). There was high internal reliability across samples (Cronbach's alphas: 0.92-0.96), and strong convergent validity correlations in hypothesized directions. The SOM's correlations with other optimism measures indicate preliminary construct validity. CFA statistics indicated acceptable fit of the SOM model.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a psychometrically-sound measure of state optimism that can be used in various settings. Predictive and criterion validity will be tested in future studies.

Psychometric Properties of the Interpersonal Outcome Expectancies for Thinness (IOET) Scale: Evidence for Validity, Reliability, and Utility in the Study of Eating Disturbances in Females

Introduction: Interpersonal context is believed to represent a powerful factor that often fosters and sustains eating disturbances in females. The present study focused on the development of a measure tapping into positive interpersonal expectancies predicated on being thin believed to be positively involved in eating disorders in females, namely, the Interpersonal Outcome Expectancies for Thinness (IOET).

Method: In Study 1, a total of 361 U.S. female college students completed the IOET for factor analysis. In Study 2, to assess for construct validity, an independent sample of 184 U.S. female college students completed a test battery including the IOET and measures of eating attitudes and disturbances, positive and negative affectivity, and general optimism.

Results: In Study 1, results from an exploratory factor analysis indicated a one-factor solution for the IOET accounting for 76.70% of the total variance. In Study 2, the IOET was found to possess good test-retest reliability (6-week) in a subset sample of U.S. female participants. Moreover, in support for construct validity, we found IOET scores were positively associated with scores on measures of eating disturbances (e.g., bulimic symptoms) and negative affectivity. Additionally, IOET scores were negatively associated with scores on a measure of general optimism. Finally, in support of utility, the IOET was found to add incremental validity to the prediction of eating disturbances, even after accounting for general optimism and affectivity.

Discussion: The present findings provide promising evidence for the validity, reliability, and utility of the IOET as a measure of a maladaptive cognitive schema associated with eating disorders in females. Implications for the theory and clinical assessments were discussed.

Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Exploring Parent Comparative Optimism About Future Child Outcomes

Objectives. Comparative optimism is present in parental predictions of their child’s long-term, obesity-related health outcomes and some of this optimism is unrealistic. An understanding of how comparative optimism relates to parents’ predictions of health versus other child outcomes could contribute to the development of interventions and strategies pediatricians can use to improve risk assessment. Methods. In a nationally representative survey, we asked American parents of 6- to 17-year-old children (n = 410) to estimate the chances that their child and “a typical child in their community” would be affected by overweight, get married, and complete a 4-year college degree by age 30, and the child’s future salary at age 30. We collected data on family demographic and health characteristics. We modeled the difference in parent predictions for their child versus the typical child using multivariate linear regressions. Results. Compared to the typical child, parents were less likely to predict that their child would be affected by overweight (−26.6 percentage points, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −35.6, −17.7) and more likely to predict that their child would complete a 4-year degree (16.7 percentage points, 95% CI: 2.5, 31.0). Parents predicted their child would have a higher income than the typical child at age 30 ($15,266, 95% CI: $7,487, $23,046). Parents did not predict that their child would be more likely than the typical child to be married by age 30 (−2.2 percentage points, 95% CI: −8.1, 3.7). Conclusions. Some parents appear to exhibit comparative optimism around their child’s future weight status, education, and economic outcomes, but not marriage. Future experimental work should assess whether risk communication approaches that consider optimism bias influence parent risk perception and parenting behaviors.

Feeling the weight of calories: using haptic feedback as virtual exemplars to promote risk perception among young females on unhealthy snack choices

Virtual simulations allow users to feel and manipulate objects as they would in the physical world. Guided by exemplification theory and risk communication research, a virtual exemplar was developed to allow users to feel the weight of the caloric density of unhealthy snacks (e.g., potato chips) to heighten risk perceptions on snack choices. A 3 (base-rate statistics, print exemplar, virtual exemplar) × 3 (Time 1, Time 2, Time 3) mixed design experiment (N = 152) compared the effect of three mediated modes of delivering health information at baseline, immediately after, and 1 week after treatments. Virtual exemplars led to greater spatial presence, issue involvement, and recommended health behavior than did base-rate statistics or print exemplars, but had no effect on perceived vividness. Heightened perceived susceptibility following virtual exemplars persisted for 1 week. Findings emphasized the importance of spatial presence elicited by an exemplar in heightening the perceived susceptibility of health risks both immediately after and 1 week after exposure. The role of spatial presence and vividness in the context of virtual exemplars that afford the illusion of firsthand experiences is discussed and compared against traditional exemplification research that has focused on the impact of secondhand experiences.

Advances and Open Questions in the Science of Subjective Well-Being

Subjective well-being (SWB) is an extremely active area of research with about 170,000 articles and books published on the topic in the past 15 years. Methodological and theoretical advances have been notable in this period of time, with the increasing use of longitudinal and experimental designs allowing for a greater understanding of the predictors and outcomes that relate to SWB, along with the process that underlie these associations. In addition, theories about these processes have become more intricate, as findings reveal that many associations with SWB depend on people's culture and values and the context in which they live. This review provides an overview of many major areas of research, including the measurement of SWB, the demographic and personality-based predictors of SWB, and process-oriented accounts of individual differences in SWB. In addition, because a major new focus in recent years has been the development of national accounts of subjective well-being, we also review attempts to use SWB measures to guide policy decisions.

Seeing through rose-colored glasses: How optimistic expectancies guide visual attention

Optimism bias and positive attention bias have important highly similar implications for mental health but have only been examined in isolation. Investigating the causal relationships between these biases can improve the understanding of their underlying cognitive mechanisms, leading to new directions in neurocognitive research and revealing important information about normal functioning as well as the development, maintenance, and treatment of psychological diseases. In the current project, we hypothesized that optimistic expectancies can exert causal influences on attention deployment. To test this causal relation, we conducted two experiments in which we manipulated optimistic and pessimistic expectancies regarding future rewards and punishments. In a subsequent visual search task, we examined participants’ attention to positive (i.e., rewarding) and negative (i.e., punishing) target stimuli, measuring their eye gaze behavior and reaction times. In both experiments, participants’ attention was guided toward reward compared with punishment when optimistic expectancies were induced. Additionally, in Experiment 2, participants’ attention was guided toward punishment compared with reward when pessimistic expectancies were induced. However, the effect of optimistic (rather than pessimistic) expectancies on attention deployment was stronger. A key characteristic of optimism bias is that people selectively update expectancies in an optimistic direction, not in a pessimistic direction, when receiving feedback. As revealed in our studies, selective attention to rewarding versus punishing evidence when people are optimistic might explain this updating asymmetry. Thus, the current data can help clarify why optimistic expectancies are difficult to overcome. Our findings elucidate the cognitive mechanisms underlying optimism and attention bias, which can yield a better understanding of their benefits for mental health.

Self-rated health is prospectively associated with uptake of screening for the early detection of colorectal cancer, not vice versa

Self-rated health (SRH) is a consistent predictor of mortality and other health outcomes. One of the mechanisms hypothesized to explain its validity as a predictor is that SRH affects the adoption of health behaviors. The present study examined the prospective association between SRH and performance of a recommended colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test. One thousand four hundred and seventy-six men and women aged 50-74 years, eligible for CRC screening, who had undergone the test a year before were interviewed 1-2 weeks (long interview, before testing) or 2 months (short interview, after testing) following the mailing of a test kit. Test performance was ascertained using an HMO's computerized data set. Respondents in the long interview group who rated their health as 'higher than others' performed the screening test 2 months following the invitation more than those who rated their health as similar to or lower than that of others (65.4, 61.6, and 49.1%, respectively, χ=8.02, P=0.018). At the same time, these respondents perceived the risk of CRC as significantly lower than that of those who rated their health as comparable with or lower than that of others. In a multivariate logistic regression of CRC screening behavior that included demographic and perceptual variables, age, intentions, and SRH were found to be significant predictors. Among respondents in the short interview, who tested before the interview, there was no significant association between SRH and behavior. SRH prospectively predicts uptake of CRC screening better than other perceptual variables, after accounting for demographic variables.

Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

The link between optimism bias and attention bias: A neurocognitive perspective

Both optimism bias and reward-related attention bias have crucial implications for well-being and mental health. Yet, the extent to which the two biases interact remains unclear because, to date, they have mostly been discussed in isolation. Examining interactions between the two biases can lead to new directions in neurocognitive research by revealing their underlying cognitive and neurophysiological mechanisms. In the present article, we suggest that optimism bias and reward-related attention bias mutually enforce each other and recruit a common underlying neural network. Key components of this network include specific activations in the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex with connections to the amygdala. We further postulate that biased memory processes influence the interplay of optimism and reward-related attention bias. Studying such causal relations between cognitive biases reveals important information not only about normal functioning and adaptive neural pathways in maintaining mental health, but also about the development and maintenance of psychological diseases, thereby contributing to the effectiveness of treatment.

Optimistic Bias, Risk Factors, and Development of High Blood Pressure and Obesity among African American Adolescents in Mississippi (USA)

Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions and is linked to hypertension among African American youth. Optimistic bias influences behavior of youth causing them to underestimate their susceptibility to negative health outcomes. This study explored adolescent behaviors and prevalence of high blood pressure and obesity in a school district. We examined the relationship between individual health risk practices and optimistic bias on health outcomes; 433 African American high school students were administered a survey and had their obesity and blood pressure measured by the school nurse. Canonical correlational analyses were used to examine relationships between health risk practices and descriptive statistics for optimistic bias and health outcomes. Engaging in moderate exercise for at least 30 min in the last 7 days and lower blood pressure was the only statistically significant relationship. Two-thirds of the students did not perceive themselves to be at risk of developing cardiovascular disease with males at greater risk than females, despite the presence of clinical risk factors for hypertension and obesity. Reducing health optimistic bias is an effective way of motivating young people to adopt more positive behaviors using educational institutions to implement intervention programs that promote positive health behavior as a way to reduce health disparities.

Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? A Review of the Literature

The optimistic bias is defined as judging one's own risk as less than the risk of others. Researchers have identified numerous personal and situational factors that moderate the extent to which people display the bias. It is unclear, however, whether these moderators affect the bias by influencing people's personal risk estimates or their risk estimates for a target. A review of moderators of the optimistic bias reveals evidence for both influences. Moderators associated with negative affect (negative mood, dysphoria, trait and state anxiety, event severity, and proximity of feedback) and control related moderators (perceived control and prior experience) appear primarily to affect personal risk estimates. Positive mood affects target risk estimates. Finally, moderators that surround the comparison process appear to have different effects. Specifically, the type of comparison target appears to affect target risk estimates, whereas attention to personal risk-related behaviors affects personal risk estimates.

What is unrealistic optimism?

Here we consider the nature of unrealistic optimism and other related positive illusions. We are interested in whether cognitive states that are unrealistically optimistic are belief states, whether they are false, and whether they are epistemically irrational. We also ask to what extent unrealistically optimistic cognitive states are fixed. Based on the classic and recent empirical literature on unrealistic optimism, we offer some preliminary answers to these questions, thereby laying the foundations for answering further questions about unrealistic optimism, such as whether it has biological, psychological, or epistemic benefits.

Pain expectations in neuropathic pain: Is it best to be optimistic?

BACKGROUND

Pain expectancy may be an important variable that has been found to influence the effectiveness of treatments for pain. Much of the literature supports a self-fulfilment perspective where expectations for pain relief predict the actual pain experienced. However, in conditions such as neuropathic pain (NeP) where pain relief is difficult to attain, expectations for pain relief could be unrealistic. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between realistic/unrealistic expectations and 6-month, post-treatment outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of a large cohort of patients with NeP (n = 789) attending tertiary care centres to determine the association between unrealistic (both positive and negative) and realistic expectations with outcomes after multidisciplinary treatment. An expectation variable with three categories was calculated: realistic expectations were those whose expected reduction in pain was similar to the observed mean group reduction in pain, while optimistic and pessimistic expectations were those who over- or under-estimated the expected response to treatment, respectively. The association between baseline realistic/unrealistic expectations and 6-month pain-related disability, catastrophizing and psychological distress was assessed.

RESULTS

Univariable analyses suggested that realistic expectations were associated with lower levels of disability, catastrophizing and psychological distress, compared to unrealistic expectations. However, after adjustment for baseline symptom severity, multivariable analysis revealed that patients with optimistic expectations had lower levels of disability, than those with realistic expectations. Those with pessimistic expectations had higher levels of catastrophizing and psychological distress at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings are largely congruent with the self-fulfilment perspective to expectations.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study defined realistic pain expectations with patient data. Examining the relationship between expectations between pain and disability in a large cohort of patients with neuropathic pain.

The Negative Side of Positive Psychology

This article explores three ways in which the positive psychology movement’s construction and presentation of itself are negative. First, the negative side is construed as the negative side effects of positive psychology’s dominant, separatist message. Second, the negative side is construed as the negativity that can be found within the positive psychology movement. Here the author elaborates on the negative or dismissive reactions of some spokespersons for the movement to ideas or views that run counter to the movement’s dominant message: (a) negativity about negativity itself, which is explored by way of research in health psychology and coping styles; and (b) negativity about the wrong kind of positivity, namely, allegedly unscientific positivity, especially that which Seligman purports to find within humanistic psychology. This constitutes an epistemological position that contributes to “reality problems” for positive psychologists. The author concludes with the implications of positive psychology’s “Declaration of Independence” for psychology’s much discussed fragmentation woes. She appeals to the wisdom of William James for guidance in finding a third, more positive meaning of positive psychology’s negative side. This third meaning can be gleaned from a not-yet-dominant but more integrative message emerging within the movement, one compatible with the reactions of some humanistic psychologists to positive psychology.

Determinants of Health Behaviors After Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Prospective Cohort Study in Geneva

INTRODUCTION

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the most common complications in pregnancy. The objective of this study was to specify the determinants of postpartum physical activity and dietary habits after a pregnancy complicated by GDM in a population of Swiss women. This information will be used to improve health promotion and diabetes prevention interventions for women with a history of GDM.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of 173 pregnant women with a diagnosis of GDM was carried out. Quantitative data were collected at the end of pregnancy (T1) and at 6 months postpartum (T3). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess associations between the level of healthy lifestyle at 6 months postpartum, clinical and sociodemographic characteristics, motivation to adopt a healthy lifestyle after birth at the end of pregnancy, and postulated psychosocial correlates of health behaviors.

RESULTS

Multivariate regression analysis showed that only 2 variables were determinants in a low adherence to healthy lifestyle in the postpartum period after GDM: a lower level of social support (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; P < .001) and more perceived barriers to a healthy lifestyle (OR, 1.2; P = .002).

DISCUSSION

This study shows that, for women who had GDM, the problem of low adherence to a healthy lifestyle to prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes may be secondary to the lack of resources available for the promotion and development of healthy eating habits and regular physical activity. The findings of this study suggest that some women with a history of GDM do not have the means and resources in the postpartum period to apply the advice given during antenatal monitoring.

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance

BACKGROUND

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news.

METHODS

In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed.

RESULTS

In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance).

CONCLUSION

Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news.

Dispositional, Unrealistic, and Comparative Optimism: Differential Relations with the Knowledge and Processing of Risk Information and Beliefs about Personal Risk

This study examined the relationship of dispositional, unrealistic, and comparative optimism to each other and to personal risk beliefs, actual risk, and the knowledge and processing of risk information. The study included 146 middle-age adults who reported heart attack-related knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors and read an essay about heart attack risk factors. Dispositional optimism was correlated with comparative optimism (perception of low risk relative to peers) but not with a variable assessing accuracy of participants’ comparative risk estimates (unrealistic optimism). Individuals high in dispositional optimism and comparative optimism possessed an adaptive risk and belief profile and knew more about heart attacks, whereas unrealistically optimistic individuals exhibited the opposite pattern and also learned relatively less of the essay material. Evidently, perceptions of low comparative risk are relatively accurate, dispositional optimism is associated in an adaptive way with information processing, and unrealistic optimism may be associated with processing deficits and defensiveness, as well as higher risk.

Being Better or Getting Better? Social and Temporal Comparisons as Coping Mechanisms in Close Relationships

How do partners in close relationships evaluate the broader implications of their specific problems? Prior research suggests that partners evaluate their relationships through social and temporal comparisons. The current study expanded on this work in two ways. First, within-subject analyses examined whether partners use comparisons strategically, engaging in more favorable comparisons with respect to more threatening problems. Results confirmed that spouses generally perceive themselves to be better off than other couples and generally expect their problems to remain stable over time. However, within-subject analyses revealed that, with respect to more severe problems, spouses were less likely to perceive themselves as superior but more likely to perceive those problems as improving over time. Second, sample and longitudinal data were used to examine the accuracy of partners’ comparisons. Consistent with predictions, social comparisons were associated with actual standing within the sample, whereas temporal comparisons were not associated with actual change over time.

Intensity Bias in Affective Forecasting: The Role of Temporal Focus

In five studies, university students predicted their affective reactions to a wide variety of positive and negative future events. In Studies 1 to 3, participants also reported the affective reactions they experienced when the target event occurred. As hypothesized, they tended to anticipate more intense reactions than they actually experienced. In Studies 3 to 5, a cognitive determinant of this “intensity bias” was examined. It was hypothesized that people anticipate stronger affective reactions when they focus narrowly on an upcoming event in a manner that neglects past experience and less intense reactions when they consider a set of relevant previous experiences. Evidence from thought-listing measures as well as an experimental manipulation of temporal focus supported this hypothesis.

The Perception of Personal Control: Sufficiently Important to Warrant Careful Scrutiny

Carver et al. propose that expecting a desired outcome is more important than the perception of personal control over that outcome in predicting distress among individuals facing threatening circumstances. They support this hypothesis through an analysis of data from two studies of women with early stage breast cancer. This article turns to the existing empirical literature, to recent theories of adjustment to serious illness, and to the methods employed in the Carver et al. studies to comment on their proposal. The authors conclude that an adequate comparison of how expectancies and control perceptions contribute to the adjustment of individuals in threatening situations will require more attention to the selection of research participants, the appropriate time frame for such studies, and measurement strategies.

The Effects of Mindset on Behavior: Self-Regulation in Deliberative and Implemental Frames of Mind

The effects of deliberative and implemental mindsets—cognitive and motivational states associated with predecisional and postdecisional frames of mind, respectively—were examined in the context of the self-regulation of behavior. Participants who had been induced to deliberate the merits of participating in a specified task formulated more pessimistic expectations about this task than did participants who had been induced to imagine implementing a plan to complete the task. Moreover, participants in the deliberation condition underperformed relative to the participants in the implemental condition, demonstrating that deliberative and implemental thinking can influence behavior as well as cognition.

Great expectations: racial differences in outcome expectations for a weight lifting intervention among black and white breast cancer survivors with or without lymphedema

BACKGROUND

Black breast cancer survivors are less likely to engage in physical activity than are White survivors. This is unfortunate because physical activity may be especially beneficial given Black breast cancer survivors' higher rates of obesity and adverse treatment effects related to obesity, such as breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL). The analysis explored outcome expectations for a weight lifting intervention by sedentary Black or White female breast cancer survivors and assessed the role of BCRL on outcome expectations for exercise.

METHODS

Chi-squared tests compared mean outcome expectation values for Black and White breast cancer survivors who completed baseline surveys for the Physical Activity and Lymphedema trial (n = 281). With race as the independent variable, multivariable analysis compared results for women without BCRL with those with BCRL, separately.

RESULTS

Across the entire sample, Black survivors (n = 90) had significantly higher (p < 0.05) outcome expectations than White survivors (n = 191) for improvements in sleep, appearance, mental health, affect, energy, and eating habits, with small to moderate effect sizes. When stratified by BCRL status, differences by race were robust only among those with BCRL.

CONCLUSIONS

Black cancer survivors had greater expectations than White cancer survivors for how a weight lifting intervention would improve their physical and mental states; these differences were most apparent among women with BCRL. Improving outcomes in Black breast cancer survivors rests on the development of interventions that are appropriately tailored to address the expectations of this population and account for differences in persistent adverse effects of cancer such as BCRL. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship Expectations and Relationship Quality

This article reviews research that examines the effects of relationship expectations on interpersonal relationships. Most of the published research suggests that positive relationship expectations are associated with better interpersonal functioning, as indicated by greater relationship persistence, more positive relationship evaluations and motivations, more prorelationship behavior, more forgiveness, and reduced contempt. Research on related constructs, such as relationship efficacy, implicit theories, trust, and insecurity dispositions, suggests a similar conclusion. However, there is some evidence that positive relationship expectations may sometimes have negative effects on healthy relationship functioning. A model of the multiple pathways through which relationship expectations may promote and threaten relationship quality is described, and several directions for future research are suggested.

Predictions on the go: Prevalence of spontaneous spending predictions

The present research examines the prevalence of predictions in daily life. Specifically we examine whether spending predictions for specific purchases occur spontaneously in life outside of a laboratory setting. Across community samples and student samples, overall self-report and diary reports, three studies suggest that people make spending predictions for about two-thirds of purchases in everyday life. In addition, we examine factors that increase the likelihood of spending predictions: the size of purchase, payment form, time pressure, personality variables, and purchase decisions. Spending predictions were more likely for larger, more exceptional purchases and for item and project predictions rather than time periods.

A Primer on Unrealistic Optimism

People display unrealistic optimism in their predictions for countless events, believing that their personal future outcomes will be more desirable than can possibly be true. We summarize the vast literature on unrealistic optimism by focusing on four broad questions: What is unrealistic optimism; when does it occur; why does it occur; and what are its consequences.

I Eat Healthier Than You: Differences in Healthy and Unhealthy Food Choices for Oneself and for Others

The present study investigated self-other biases in actual eating behavior based on the observation of three different eating situations. To capture the complexity of real life food choices within a well-controlled setting, an ecologically valid fake food buffet with 72 different foods was employed. Sixty participants chose a healthy, a typical, and an unhealthy meal for themselves and for an average peer. We found that the typical meal for the self was more similar to the healthy than to the unhealthy meal in terms of energy content: The mean difference between the typical and healthy meals was MΔ = 1368 kJ (327 kcal) as compared to a mean difference between the typical and unhealthy meals of MΔ = 3075 kJ (735 kcal). Moreover, there was evidence that people apply asymmetrical standards for themselves and others: Participants chose more energy for a peer than for themselves (M = 4983 kJ or 1191 kcal on average for the peers' meals vs. M = 3929 kJ or 939 kcal on average for the own meals) and more high-caloric food items for a typical meal, indicating a self-other bias. This comparatively positive self-view is in stark contrast to epidemiological data indicating overall unhealthy eating habits and demands further examination of its consequences for behavior change.

Daily Affective and Behavioral Forecasts in Romantic Relationships

The current research examined accuracy and bias in daily forecasts within romantic relationships. Results of an extensive daily report study involving 200 romantic dyads and 4,822 daily observations suggested that predictions regarding affect and partner behavior that will occur tomorrow are somewhat accurate, predicted by actual experiences tomorrow, but are largely biased by current experiences. Participants appeared to project the current state of their relationship into the future, a temporal projection bias. This bias predicted forecasters’ pro-relationship motivation and behavior. Forecasters were less likely to exhibit the temporal projection bias when they were high in relationship commitment, and they were more likely to exhibit the bias when they were high in need for cognitive closure, suggesting that motivation can constrain or amplify tendencies to project the present into the future. Implications for interpersonal relationships are discussed.

Is dispositional optimism or dispositional pessimism predictive of ideal cardiovascular health? The Young Finns Study

OBJECTIVE

We examined the independent association between dispositional optimism compared to dispositional pessimism and ideal cardiovascular health (defined by the American Heart Association).

DESIGN

A prospective design with a study sample of 1113 participants aged 24-39 years from the longitudinal Young Finns Study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Ideal cardiovascular health (comprised of seven ideal cardiovascular health metrics) was measured in 2001. The ideal cardiovascular health metrics were reassessed in 2007.

RESULTS

Low pessimism rather than high optimism was a better predictor of ideal cardiovascular health in 2007. When examining the association between optimism and pessimism and the seven ideal cardiovascular health metrics in 2007 (BMI, diet, physical activity, smoking status, blood pressure, total cholesterol and plasma glucose), low pessimism predicted non-smoking status, ideal physical activity and eating a healthy diet, while high optimism was associated with eating a healthy diet.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that low pessimism rather than high optimism is associated with ideal cardiovascular health, especially with health behaviours such as not smoking, being physically active and eating a healthy diet. Socio-economic status was the potential mediating or confounding factor. Future studies should examine the differential meaning of the optimism/pessimism concepts to further clarify their relation to health outcomes.

Social cognition in adolescent girls with fragile x syndrome

This study aimed to characterize social cognition, executive functions (EFs), and everyday social functioning in adolescent girls with fragile X syndrome, and identify relationships among these variables. Participants were 20 girls with FXS and 20 age-matched typically developing peers. Results showed significant between-groups differences in social cognition, accounted for by differences in IQ and language. Within the FXS group, IQ and language were related to social cognition; parent-reported social functioning was related to language and EFs; and self-reported social functioning was generally good and not related to cognitive or social cognition variables. Results suggest that intervention might focus on managing language and cognitive contributions to social functioning, rather than social cognition, and underscore the importance of considering parent and adolescent perspectives.

Perceived risk following melanoma genetic testing: a 2-year prospective study distinguishing subjective estimates from recall

A major goal of predictive genetic testing is to alert people to their risk before illness onset; however, little is known about how risk perceptions change following genetic testing and whether information is recalled accurately over time. In the United States, a CDKN2A/p16 mutation confers 76 % lifetime risk of melanoma. Following genetic counseling and test reporting, subjective risk estimates and recall of counselor-provided risk estimates were assessed 5 times over the next 2 years among 60 adult members of 2 extended CDKN2A/p16 kindreds. No sustained changes from baseline in risk perceptions were reported. Unaffected carriers (n = 15) consistently reported significantly lower subjective risk estimates (46 %) than they were actually given (76 %, p < 0.001) or recalled having been given (60 %, p < 0.001). Noncarriers' (n = 27) risk estimates decreased following results disclosure, but rebounded, with both subjective and recalled estimates subsequently exceeding what they were told by the counselor (both ps < 0.001). Affected carriers' (n = 18) risk estimates for developing a new melanoma corresponded well to counselor-provided information (p = 0.362). For all 3 patient groups, results were consistent across multiple risk measures and remained similar when demographic, phenotypic, and baseline behavioral contributors to melanoma risk were statistically controlled. These findings are consistent with other studies of risk perception, but additional studies of more diverse populations are needed to understand the reasons behind both the persistence of initial risk estimates and their divergence from information provided by the counselor during genetic counseling. Additionally, determining whether holding subjective risk perceptions that differ from counselor-provided information ultimately affects adherence to management recommendations will help guide the presentation of risk information in genetic counseling practice.

On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions

When people predict their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacles or competing demands, that may interfere with the translation of current intentions into future behavior. We consider three reasons why people may not adjust sufficiently for such barriers. First, self-predictions may focus exclusively on current intentions, ignoring potential barriers altogether. We test this possibility, in three studies, with manipulations that draw greater attention to barriers. Second, barriers may be discounted in the self-prediction process. We test this possibility by comparing prospective and retrospective ratings of the impact of barriers on the target behavior. Neither possibility was supported in these tests, or in a further test examining whether an optimally weighted statistical model could improve on the accuracy of self-predictions by placing greater weight on anticipated situational barriers. Instead, the evidence supports a third possibility: Even when they acknowledge that situational factors can affect the likelihood of carrying out an intended behavior, people do not adequately moderate the weight placed on their current intentions when predicting their future behavior.

A qualitative study of lung cancer risk perceptions and smoking beliefs among national lung screening trial participants

INTRODUCTION

The National Comprehensive Cancer Network and the American Cancer Society recently released lung screening guidelines that include smoking cessation counseling for smokers undergoing screening. Previous work indicates that smoking behaviors and risk perceptions of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) participants were relatively unchanged. We explored American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ACRIN)/NLST former and current smokers' risk perceptions specifically to (a) determine whether lung screening is a cue for behavior change, (b) elucidate risk perceptions for lung cancer and smoking-related diseases, and (c) explore postscreening behavioral intentions and changes.

METHODS

A random sample of 35 participants from 4 ACRIN sites were qualitatively interviewed 1-2 years postscreen. We used a structured interview guide based on Health Belief Model and Self-Regulation Model constructs. Content analyses were conducted with NVivo 8.

RESULTS

Most participants endorsed high-risk perceptions for lung cancer and smoking-related diseases, but heightened concern about these risks did not appear to motivate participants to seek screening. Risk perceptions were mostly attributed to participants' heavy smoking histories; former smokers expressed greatly reduced risk. Lung cancer and smoking-related diseases were perceived as very severe although participants endorsed low worry. Current smokers had low confidence in their ability to quit, and none reported quitting following their initial screen.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung screening did not appear to be a behavior change cue to action, and high-risk perceptions did not translate into quitting behaviors. Cognitive and emotional dissonance and avoidance strategies may deter engagement in smoking behavior change. Smoking cessation and prevention interventions during lung screening should explore risk perceptions, emotions, and quit confidence.