Prevalence of morbidity and multimorbidity in elderly male populations and their impact on 10-year all-cause mortality: The FINE study (Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Elderly)

Integrating multi-task and cost-sensitive learning for predicting mortality risk of chronic diseases in the elderly using real-world data

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Real-world data encompass population diversity, enabling insights into chronic disease mortality risk among the elderly. Deep learning excels on large datasets, offering promise for real-world data. However, current models focus on single diseases, neglecting comorbidities prevalent in patients. Moreover, mortality is infrequent compared to illness, causing extreme class imbalance that impedes reliable prediction. We aim to develop a deep learning framework that accurately forecasts mortality risk from real-world data by addressing comorbidities and class imbalance.

METHODS

We integrated multi-task and cost-sensitive learning, developing an enhanced deep neural network architecture that extends multi-task learning to predict mortality risk across multiple chronic diseases. Each patient cohort with a chronic disease was assigned to a separate task, with shared lower-level parameters capturing inter-disease complexities through distinct top-level networks. Cost-sensitive functions were incorporated to ensure learning of positive class characteristics for each task and achieve accurate prediction of the risk of death from multiple chronic diseases.

RESULTS

Our study covers 15 prevalent chronic diseases and is experimented with real-world data from 482,145 patients (including 9,516 deaths) in Shenzhen, China. The proposed model is compared with six models including three machine learning models: logistic regression, XGBoost, and CatBoost, and three state-of-the-art deep learning models: 1D-CNN, TabNet, and Saint. The experimental results show that, compared with the other compared algorithms, MTL-CSDNN has better prediction results on the test set (ACC=0.99, REC=0.99, PRAUC=0.97, MCC=0.98, G-means = 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Our method provides valuable insights into leveraging real-world data for precise multi-disease mortality risk prediction, offering potential applications in optimizing chronic disease management, enhancing well-being, and reducing healthcare costs for the elderly population.

Age-specific Multimorbidity Patterns and Burden on All-Cause Mortality and Public Direct Medical Expenditure: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate age-specific multimorbidity patterns and morbidity burden on mortality and healthcare expenditure across age groups.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Retrospective observational study between January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2017 using electronic health records in Hong Kong: Individuals were stratified by age (< 50, 50-64, 65-79, ≥ 80), and sub-classified by number of morbidities (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4) out of 21 common chronic conditions. Clustering analyses were conducted to identify specific patterns of multimorbidity. Association between the number as well as combinations of morbidities and all-cause mortality and public expenditure was examined.

RESULTS

4,562,832 individuals with a median follow-up of 7 years were included. Mental disorders were the top morbidities among young individuals, while cardiovascular diseases were prevalent in the elderly. An increased number of morbidities was associated with a greater relative risk for mortality and medical expenditure, and this relationship was stronger among younger patients. Compared to individuals in the same age group without morbidity, the hazard ratios (HR; 95% CI) of all-cause mortality in patients aged < 50 and ≥ 80 with two comorbidities 3.81 (3.60-4.03) and 1.38 (1.36-1.40), respectively, which increased to 14.22 (9.87-20.47) and 2.20 (2.13-2.26), respectively, as the number of morbidities increased to ≥ 4. The stroke-hypertension cluster was shown to be associated with the highest HR of mortality 2.48 (2.43-2.53) among all identified clusters arising from the clustering analysis.

CONCLUSION

Given the stronger association between multimorbidity and all-cause mortality and greater opportunity costs in younger populations, prevention and management of early-onset multimorbidity are warranted. (248 words).

Towards a comprehensive approach to the management and prognosis of systemic sclerosis's patients: The role of comorbidities in the SPRING-SIR registry

OBJECTIVES

The current knowledge about the role of comorbidities in systemic sclerosis (SSc) is limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of comorbidities and their impact on disease activity and prognosis in the Systemic sclerosis PRogression INvestiGation (SPRING) registry.

METHODS

SSc patients from the SPRING registry, fulfilling the ACR/EULAR 2013 classification criteria, with complete data on baseline comorbidities were enrolled. The Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) was used to quantify the overall comorbidity burden. The disease activity was calculated using the revised EUSTAR activity index (AI). The impact of SSc features on CCI, the effect of CCI on SSc disease activity and mortality were tested with multivariable regression models.

RESULTS

Among 1910 SSc patients enrolled, 67.3 % had at least one comorbidity at baseline. The most frequent comorbidities were systemic arterial hypertension (23.7 %), osteoporosis (12.9 %) and dyslipidemia (11 %). The mean value of CCI score was 2.0 ± 1.8. When patients were grouped according to increasing levels of CCI, a clear separation in the distribution of SSc-related clinical features could be observed. Among over 900 patients with available follow-up, no association between baseline CCI and changes in disease activity was observed. Conversely, the risk of death over time was independently predicted by both CCI and AI.

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbidities and disease activity independently impact on the prognosis of SSc patients. This suggests that the management of comorbidities, together with the reduction of disease activity, is fundamental to improve patient survival.

The Effectiveness of Collaborative Care Interventions for the Management of Patients With Multimorbidity: Protocol for a Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Meta-Regression Analysis

BACKGROUND

Collaborative care interventions have been proposed as a promising strategy to support patients with multimorbidity. Despite this, the effectiveness of collaborative care interventions requires further evaluation. Existing systematic reviews describing the effectiveness of collaborative care interventions in multimorbidity management tend to focus on specific interventions, patient subgroups, and settings. This necessitates a comprehensive review that will provide an overview of the effectiveness of collaborative care interventions for adult patients with multimorbidity.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to systematically assess the effectiveness of collaborative care interventions in comparison to usual care concerning health-related quality of life (HRQoL), mental health, and mortality among adult patients with multimorbidity.

METHODS

Randomized controlled trials evaluating collaborative care interventions designed for adult patients (18 years and older) with multimorbidity compared with usual care will be considered for inclusion in this review. HRQoL will be the primary outcome. Mortality and mental health outcomes such as rating scales for anxiety and depression will serve as secondary outcomes. The systematic search will be conducted in the CENTRAL, PubMed, CINAHL, and Embase databases. Additional reference and citation searches will be performed in Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Scopus. Data extraction will be comprehensive and include information about participant characteristics, study design, intervention details, and main outcomes. Included studies will be assessed for limitations according to the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Meta-analysis will be conducted to estimate the pooled effect size. Meta-regression or subgroup analysis will be undertaken to explore if certain factors can explain the variation in effect between studies, if feasible. The certainty of evidence will be evaluated using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) approach.

RESULTS

The preliminary literature search was performed on February 16, 2024, and yielded 5255 unique records. A follow-up search will be performed across all databases before submission. The findings will be presented in forest plots, a summary of findings table, and in narrative format. This systematic review is expected to be completed by late 2024.

CONCLUSIONS

This review will provide an overview of pooled estimates of treatment effects across HRQoL, mental health, and mortality from randomized controlled trials evaluating collaborative care interventions for adults with multimorbidity. Furthermore, the intention is to clarify the participant, intervention, or study characteristics that may influence the effect of the interventions. This review is expected to provide valuable insights for researchers, clinicians, and other decision-makers about the effectiveness of collaborative care interventions targeting adult patients with multimorbidity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) CRD42024512554; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=512554.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/58296.

The Dietary Inflammatory Index and Its Associations with Biomarkers of Nutrients with Antioxidant Potential, a Biomarker of Inflammation and Multiple Long-Term Conditions

We aimed to validate the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®) and assess the cross-sectional associations between the DII® and multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) and biomarker concentrations and MLTCs using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk) study (11,113 men and 13,408 women). The development of MLTCs is associated with low-grade chronic inflammation, and ten self-reported conditions were selected for our MLTC score. Data from a validated FFQ were used to calculate energy-adjusted DII® scores. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and circulating vitamins A, C, E, β-carotene and magnesium were available. Micronutrient biomarker concentrations were significantly lower as the diet became more pro-inflammatory (p-trend < 0.001), and hs-CRP concentrations were significantly higher in men (p-trend = 0.006). A lower DII® (anti-inflammatory) score was associated with 12-40% higher odds of MLTCs. Lower concentrations of vitamin C and higher concentrations of hs-CRP were associated with higher odds of MLTCs. The majority of the associations in our study between MLTCs, nutritional biomarkers, hs-CRP and the DII® were as expected, indicating that the DII® score has criterion validity. Despite this, a more anti-inflammatory diet was associated with higher odds of MLTCs, which was unexpected. Future studies are required to better understand the associations between MLTCs and the DII®.

Patient-centered care in diabetes care-concepts, relationships and practice

We still do not have comprehensive knowledge of which framework of patient-centered care (PCC) is appropriate for diabetes care, which elements of PCC are evidence-based, and the mechanism by which PCC elements are associated with outcomes through mediators. In this review, we elaborate on these issues. We found that for diabetes care, PCC elements such as autonomy support (patient individuality), cooperation and collaboration (system-level approach), com-munication and education (behavior change techniques), emotional support (biopsychosocial approach), and family/other involvement and support are critically important. All of these factors are directly associated with different patient outcomes and indirectly associated with outcomes through patient activation. We present the practical implications of these PCC elements.

Multimorbidity, health Literacy, and quality of life among older adults in an urban slum in India: a community-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

India is experiencing a rising burden of chronic disease multimorbidity due to an aging population and epidemiological transition. Older adults residing in urban slums are especially vulnerable due to challenges in managing multimorbidity amid deprived living conditions. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of multimorbidity, associated health literacy, and quality of life impact in this population.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 800 adults aged ≥ 65 years in an urban slum in Gujarat, India. Data on sociodemographics, physical and mental health conditions, health literacy (HLS-SF-47), quality of life (Short Form-12 scale), and social determinants of health were collected. Multimorbidity is ≥ 2 physical or mental health conditions in one person.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multimorbidity was 62.5% (500/800). Multimorbidity was significantly associated with lower physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores on the SF-12 (p < 0.001). After adjusting for sociodemographic variables, the odds ratio of 0.81 indicates that for every 1 unit increase in the health literacy score, the odds of having multimorbidity decrease by 19%. Older age within the older adult cohort (per year increase) was associated with greater odds of multimorbidity (AOR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.09). Physical inactivity (AOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.027-2.77) and lack of social support (AOR 1.57, 95% CI 1.01-2.45) also increased the likelihood of multimorbidity.

CONCLUSION

There is a substantial burden of multimorbidity among urban slum dwellers aged ≥ 65 years in India, strongly linked to modifiable risk factors like poor health literacy and social determinants of health. Targeted interventions are essential to alleviate this disproportionate burden among urban slum older adults.

Network of doctors for multimorbidity and diabetes - the NOMAD intervention: protocol for feasibility trial of multidisciplinary team conferences for people with diabetes and multimorbidity

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes and coexisting multimorbidity rises worldwide. Treatment of this patient group can be complex. Providing an evidence-based, coherent, and patient-centred treatment of patients with multimorbidity poses a challenge in healthcare systems, which are typically designed to deliver disease-specific care. We propose an intervention comprising multidisciplinary team conferences (MDTs) to address this issue. The MDT consists of medical specialists in five different specialities meeting to discuss multimorbid diabetes patients. This protocol describes a feasibility test of MDTs designed to coordinate care and improve quality of life for people with diabetes and multimorbidity.

METHODS

A mixed-methods one-arm feasibility test of the MDT. Feasibility will be assessed through prospectively collected data. We will explore patient perspectives through patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and assess the feasibility of electronic questionnaires. Feasibility outcomes are recruitment, PRO completion, technical difficulties, impact of MDT, and doctor preparation time. During 17 months, up to 112 participants will be recruited. We will report results narratively and by the use of descriptive statistics. The collected data will form the basis for a future large-scale randomised trial.

DISCUSSION

A multidisciplinary approach focusing on better management of diabetic patients suffering from multimorbidity may improve functional status, quality of life, and health outcomes. Multimorbidity and diabetes are highly prevalent in our healthcare system, but we lack a solid evidence-based approach to patient-centred care for these patients. This study represents the initial steps towards building such evidence. The concept can be efficiency tested in a randomised setting, if found feasible to intervention providers and receivers. If not, we will have gained experience on how to manage diabetes and multimorbidity as well as organisational aspects, which together may generate hypotheses for research on how to handle multimorbidity in the future.

ADMINISTRATIVE INFORMATION

Protocol version: 01 TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05913726 - registration date: 21 June 2023.

Multimorbidity and its Associated Factors in Korean Shift Workers: Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is a crucial factor that influences premature death rates, poor health, depression, quality of life, and use of health care. Approximately one-fifth of the global workforce is involved in shift work, which is associated with increased risk for several chronic diseases and multimorbidity. About 12% to 14% of wage workers in Korea are shift workers. However, the prevalence of multimorbidity and its associated factors in Korean shift workers are rarely reported.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess multimorbidity prevalence, examine the factors associated with multimorbidity, and identify multimorbidity patterns among shift workers in Korea.

METHODS

This study is a population-based cross-sectional study using Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2016 to 2020. The study included 1704 (weighted n=2,697,228) Korean shift workers aged 19 years and older. Multimorbidity was defined as participants having 2 or more chronic diseases. Demographic and job-related variables, including regular work status, average working hours per week, and shift work type, as well as health behaviors, including BMI, smoking status, alcohol use, physical activity, and sleep duration, were included in the analysis. A survey-corrected logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors influencing multimorbidity among the workers, and multimorbidity patterns were identified with a network analysis.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 13.7% (302/1704). Logistic regression indicated that age, income, regular work, and obesity were significant factors influencing multimorbidity. Network analysis results revealed that chronic diseases clustered into three groups: (1) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke), (2) musculoskeletal multimorbidity (arthritis and osteoporosis), and (3) unclassified diseases (depression, chronic liver disease, thyroid disease, asthma, cancer, and chronic kidney disease).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings revealed that several socioeconomic and behavioral factors were associated with multimorbidity among shift workers, indicating the need for policy development related to work schedule modification. Further organization-level screening and intervention programs are needed to prevent and manage multimorbidity among shift workers. We also recommend longitudinal studies to confirm the effects of job-related factors and health behaviors on multimorbidity among shift workers in the future.

Early life stress in relation with risk of overweight, depression, and their comorbidity across adulthood: findings from a British birth cohort

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity, known as the co-occurrence of at least two chronic conditions, has become of increasing concern in the current context of ageing populations, though it affects all ages. Early life risk factors of multimorbidity include adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), particularly associated with psychological conditions and weight problems. Few studies have considered related mechanisms and focus on old age participants. We are interested in estimating, from young adulthood, the risk of overweight-depression comorbidity related to ACEs while adjusting for early life confounders and intermediate variables.

METHODS

We used data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, a prospective birth cohort study (N = 18 558). A four-category outcome (no condition, overweight only, depression only and, overweight-depression comorbidity) was constructed at 23, 33, and 42 years. Multinomial logistic regression models adjusting for intermediate variables co-occurring with this outcome were created. ACEs and sex interaction on comorbidity risk was tested.

RESULTS

In our study sample (N = 7762), we found that ACEs were associated with overweight-depression comorbidity risk throughout adulthood (RRR [95% CI] at 23y = 3.80 [2.10-6.88]) though less overtime. Comorbidity risk was larger than risk of separate conditions. Intermediate variables explained part of the association. After full-adjustment, an association remained (RRR [95% CI] at 23y = 2.00 [1.08-3.72]). Comorbidity risk related to ACEs differed by sex at 42.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides evidence on the link and potential mechanisms between ACEs and the co-occurrence of mental and physical diseases throughout the life-course. We suggest addressing ACEs in intervention strategies and public policies to go beyond single disease prevention.

Prevalence and incidence of mobility limitation in Chinese older adults: evidence from the China health and retirement longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Mobility limitation, a manifestation of impaired intrinsic capacity, is the first obvious sign of functional decline. However, few studies have been conducted on the prevalence and incidence of mobility limitation. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of mobility limitation in Chinese older adults (over 60 years old) and evaluate its impact on mortality.

METHODS

The study used two waves of data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011 and 2013. The prevalence and incidence of mobility limitation were assessed using the methods recommended by the World Health Organization in the integrated care for older people guidelines, using the five-time sit-to-stand test as a screening and then the Short Physical Performance Battery assessment for diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the association between mobility limitation and death.

RESULTS

Of the 5507 participants with complete baseline data, 1486 had limited mobility, and 4021 had intact mobility at baseline; 4093 participants completed follow-up assessment 2 years later, and 189 died between the baseline and follow-up assessments. Of the 2828 participants with intact mobility at baseline who completed the follow-up mobility assessment, 408 developed mobility limitation. The standardized prevalence was 30.4% (95% CI = 28.8-32.1 %). The standardized incidence of mobility limitation in 2 years was 18.1% (95% CI = 15.8-20.4 %). A total of 189 patients died during the follow-up period. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors and chronic diseases, mobility limitation was associated with an increased risk of death (odds ratio = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.33-2.55, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The standardized prevalence of mobility limitation in Chinese older adults living in the community was 30.4%, and the standardized incidence was 18.1%. Mobility limitation significantly predicts 2-year death in older adults. This suggests that early screening, assessment of intrinsic capacity (particularly locomotion domain) as well as tailored interventions to tackle mobility limitation in older adults might reduce mortality.

Impact of nurse-led interprofessional work in older patients with heart failure and multimorbidity: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The number of patients with multimorbidity has increased due to the aging of the global population. Although the World Health Organization has indicated that multimorbidity will be a major medical problem in the future, the appropriate interventions for patients with multimorbidity are currently unknown. This study aimed to investigate whether nurse-led interprofessional work is associated with improved prognosis in heart failure patients with multimorbidity aged ≥65 years who were admitted in an acute care hospital.

Methods

Patients who were admitted to the cardiovascular medicine ward of an acute care hospital in Osaka, Japan, and underwent nurse-led interprofessional work from April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020, and from April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2016, were included in this retrospective cohort study. The patients were matched by age, sex, and New York Heart Association classification. The nurse-led interprofessional work was based on a three-step model that incorporates recommendations from international guidelines for multimorbidity. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

Results

The mean age of the participants was 80 years, and 62 % were men. The nurse-led interprofessional work group showed a significant difference in all-cause mortality compared with the usual care group (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.69; P < 0.001). Compared with the usual care group, the nurse-led interprofessional work group exhibited a 7 % difference in mortality rate at 1-year post-discharge (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Nurse-led interprofessional work may reduce the all-cause mortality in older patients with heart failure and multimorbidity.

Lifestyle and clinical factors as predictive indicators of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in Chinese adults: Baseline findings of the Beijing Health Management Cohort (BHMC) study

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) is increasing globally as a result of lifestyle changes and the aging population. Even though previous studies have examined risk factors associated with CMM, there is a shortage of prediction models that can accurately identify high-risk individuals for early prevention.

METHODS

In the baseline survey of the Beijing Health Management Cohort, a total of 77,752 adults aged 18 years or older were recruited from 2020 to 2021. Data on lifestyle factors, clinical profiles, and diagnoses of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were collected. Logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for CMM. Nomograms were developed to estimate an individual's probability of CMM based on the identified risk factors. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

In men, the top three risk factors for CMM were hypertension (OR: 3.52, 95 % CI: 2.97-4.18), eating very fast (3.43, 2.27-5.16), and dyslipidemia (2.59, 2.20-3.06). In women, hypertension showed the strongest association with CMM (3.62, 2.90-4.52), followed by night sleep duration less than 5 h per day (2.41, 1.67-3.50) and dyslipidemia (1.91, 1.58-2.32). The ORs for holding passive and depressed psychological traits were 1.49 (95%CI: 1.08-2.06) in men and 1.58 (1.03-2.43) in women. Prediction models incorporating these factors demonstrated good discrimination in the test set, with AUC 0.84 (0.83-0.86) for men and 0.90 (0.89-0.91) for women. The sex-specific nomograms were established based on selected predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Modifiable lifestyle factors, metabolic health and psychological trait are associated with the risk of CMM. The developed prediction models and nomograms could facilitate early identification of individuals at high-risk of CMM.

Do the New Rural Pension Scheme promote the health status of chronic patients in old age? -Evidence from CHARLS 2018 in China

BACKGROUND

Many researchers have examined the impact of social insurance on health in elderly. However, in most cases, they have only demonstrated correlational results and have not been able to determine causal effects, possibly because confounding biases have not been fully addressed. In this study, we investigated the health effects of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on the elderly (age≥60 years old) with chronic diseases in rural areas, and to explore the causal relationship and effects of NRPS and health status.

METHODS

This paper used data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and applied Bayesian networks and fuzzy regression discontinuity design to conduct causal analysis. Bayesian networks were used to explore the causal directed acyclic graphs of factors related to NRPS and health status. Based on the results of Bayesian network, a fuzzy regression discontinuity design was employed to estimate the causal effect of NRPS on health status.

RESULTS

Among rural elderly with chronic diseases, Bayesian network mapping of causal relationships among NRPS, health status and covariates showed that age was a common cause of NRPS receipt and satisfaction with health. The results of the fuzzy regression discontinuity analysis showed that the effect of receiving NRPS on the health status was positive, but there was no statistically significant difference concerning the interval estimates. The results of the subgroup analysis with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma indicated that the effect of NRPS receipt on the health status of elderly people with COPD was positive. There was a statistically significant effect of receiving NRPS on self-rated health description ([Formula: see text]) and health satisfaction ([Formula: see text]) in COPD population and a statistically significant effect of receiving NRPS on health satisfaction in asthma population ([Formula: see text]).

CONCLUSION

This paper has confirmed the contribution and positive causal effect of NRPS on health status in a subgroup of older adults with COPD and asthma, using the CHARLS database as evidence. Thus, Chinese government should increase the take-up rate of the NRPS to enhance their positive impact on health status of elderly people with chronic diseases in rural areas.

Multimorbidity and 11-year mortality in adults: a prospective analysis using the Chilean National Health Survey

Research on morbidity and mortality often emphasizes individual diseases over the cumulative effects of multimorbidity, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to analyze the association between multimorbidity and all-cause mortality in a representative sample of the Chilean population. This longitudinal study used data from 3701 subjects aged ≥15 years who participated in the Chilean National Health Survey conducted between 2009 and 2010. We included 16 self-reported highly prevalent morbidities. All-cause mortality data from an 11-year follow-up were collected from the Chilean Civil Registry. The Cox proportional hazard model, adjusted for confounders, determined the association between multimorbidity categories and all-cause mortality. Of the total sample, 24.3% reported no morbidity, while 50.4% two or more. After adjustment, participants with four or more morbidities had a 1.66 times higher mortality risk [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-2.67] than those without morbidities. The mortality risk increased by 10% for each additional morbidity [HR: 1.09 (CI: 1.04-1.16)]. Multimorbidity was common in the Chilean population and increased the mortality risk, which greatly challenges the health system to provide an integral and coordinated approach to healthcare.

Prevalence and correlates of multimorbidity among patients attending AYUSH primary care settings in Delhi-National Capital Region, India

INTRODUCTION

India has a multifaceted healthcare system and recognizes complementary and alternative systems of medicine (AYUSH) that cater to the healthcare needs of people. Multimorbidity requires frequent visits to physicians and long-term use of medications, due to which people tend to prefer AYUSH systems as they provide holistic patient-centered treatment. Hence, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity and assess its correlates among patients attending AYUSH primary care clinics in Delhi.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 943 patients aged ≥ 18 years attending various AYUSH primary care clinics in Delhi from September 2021 to February 2022, employing a stratified random sampling technique. Descriptive statistics such as frequency and proportion were used to report the prevalence of multimorbidity (two or more chronic conditions in an individual out of the 33 conditions listed as per the Multimorbidity Assessment Questionnaire for Primary Care). A multivariable logistic regression assessed the association between various socio-demographic characteristics and multimorbidity, presented as an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

The prevalence of diabetes (14.7%) was found to be the highest (out of all included chronic conditions) among the patients attending various AYUSH primary care settings. The overall prevalence of multimorbidity was observed to be around 39.4%. We observed a higher likelihood of having multimorbidity among participants aged ≥ 70 years [AOR: 9.19 (95% CI: 3.75-22.54)], females [AOR: 1.57 (95% CI: 1.04-2.37)], and middle class [AOR: 2.23 (95% CI: 1.45-3.43)].

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity was evidently prevalent across AYUSH primary care settings, which cannot be overlooked. The results suggest behavioral change communication may be aimed at older individuals, females, and the middle class.

Quantifying unmet need in General Practice: a retrospective cohort study of administrative data

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether patients attending general practices (GPs) in socioeconomically (SE) deprived areas receive the same amount of care, compared with similar patients (based on age, sex and level of morbidity) attending GPs in less deprived areas. If not, to quantify the additional resource that would be required by GPs in deprived areas to achieve parity.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

150 GPs in Scotland, UK, divided into two groups: 80 practices in Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) deciles 1-5 (more SE deprived); 70 practices in SIMD deciles 6-10 (less SE deprived).

PATIENTS

437 590 patients registered with a more SE deprived GP, and 333 994 patients registered with a less SE deprived GP, for the whole study period (2013-2016), who made at least one appointment.

OUTCOMES

The number of contacts and total contact time between patients and clinical staff.

RESULTS

Patients in more SE deprived areas had slightly more discrete contacts over 3 years (11.8 vs 11.4), but each patient had marginally less contact time (146.1 vs 149.5 min). Stratified by sex and age, differences were also small. Stratified by the number of long-term conditions (LTCs), practices in more SE deprived areas delivered significantly less contact time than practices in less SE deprived areas. Over 3 years, 8 fewer minutes for patients with no LTCs, and 24, 27, 38 and 28 fewer minutes for patients with 1, 2, 3-4 or 5+LTCs, respectively.

CONCLUSION

If GPs in more SE deprived areas were to give an equal amount of direct contact time to patients with the same level of need served by GPs in less SE deprived areas, this would require a 14% increase in patient contact time. This represents a significant unmet need, supporting the case for redistribution of resources to tackle the inverse care law.

Association of cardiovascular health using Life's Essential 8 with noncommunicable disease multimorbidity

Cardiovascular health (CVH) is closely associated with various noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and comorbidity; however, the influence of CVH on NCD multimorbidity was not fully elucidated. We aimed to examine the association between CVH using Life's Essential 8 (LE8) and NCD multimorbidity among adults, males, and females in the United States, conducting a cross-sectional analysis using data involving 24,445 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2007 to 2018. LE8 was categorized into low, moderate, and high CVH groups. Multivariate logistic regressions and restricted cubic spline regressions were used to estimate the association between LE8 and NCD multimorbidity. Overall, 6162 participants had NCD multimorbidity, of which 1168 (43.5%), 4343 (25.9%), and 651 (13.4%) had low, moderate, and high CVH, separately. After multivariable adjustment, LE8 was negatively associated with NCD multimorbidity among adults (odds ratio (OR) for per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in LE8 and 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.67 (0.64, 0.69)), and the top 3 NCDs associated with CVH were emphysema, congestive heart failure, stroke, and the dose-response relationships between LE8 and NCD multimorbidity were observed among adults (overall P < 0.001). Similar patterns were also identified among males and females. Higher CVH measured by the LE8 score was associated with lower odds of NCD multimorbidity among adults, males, and females.

Trajectories in chronic disease accrual and mortality across the lifespan in Wales, UK (2005-2019), by area deprivation profile: linked electronic health records cohort study on 965,905 individuals

Background

Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality between socioeconomic groups in Wales, UK.

Methods

Population-wide electronic linked cohort study, following Welsh residents for up to 20 years (2000-2019). Chronic disease diagnoses were obtained from general practice and hospitalisation records using the CALIBER disease phenotype register. Multi-state models were used to examine trajectories of accrual of 132 diseases and mortality, adjusted for sex, age and area-level deprivation. Restricted mean survival time was calculated to measure time spent free of chronic disease(s) or mortality between socioeconomic groups.

Findings

In total, 965,905 individuals aged 5-104 were included, from a possible 2.9 m individuals following a 5-year clearance period, with an average follow-up of 13.2 years (12.7 million person-years). Some 673,189 (69.7%) individuals developed at least one chronic disease or died within the study period. From ages 10 years upwards, the individuals living in the most deprived areas consistently experienced reduced time between health states, demonstrating accelerated transitions to first and subsequent morbidities and death compared to their demographic equivalent living in the least deprived areas. The largest difference were observed in 10 and 20 year old males developing multimorbidity (-0.45 years (99% CI: -0.45, -0.44)) and in 70 year old males dying after developing multimorbidity (-1.98 years (99% CI: -2.01, -1.95)).

Interpretation

This study adds to the existing literature on health inequalities by demonstrating that individuals living in more deprived areas consistently experience accelerated time to diagnosis of chronic disease and death across all ages, accounting for competing risks.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and Administrative Data Research Wales.

Why and when older people lose their teeth: A study of public healthcare patients aged 60 years and over in 2007-2015

OBJECTIVES

This register-based study on public sector patients aged 60 years and over assessed annual age-specific volume of and reasons for tooth extractions as well as changes in these across the period 2007-2015.

BACKGROUND

Alongside the rapidly ageing population, the demand for public oral healthcare services is growing. Damaged teeth may induce a long-lasting inflammation burden in old age.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data used the electronic documentation of oral healthcare procedures recorded according to healthcare regulation. The study population consisted of all patients over 60 years of age (n = 216 059) who were treated 2007-2015 in public oral health care available to all citizens of Helsinki, Finland. Data for the 9-year time series included reasons for tooth extractions and were aggregated by patient age into 5-year groups. Statistical analyses included rates and proportions, mean values, correlation coefficients and linear regression modelling.

RESULTS

Extraction patients (n = 48 623) were more likely in the older age groups: 21.8% in the age group 60-64 and 27.5% in the age group 90+. Mean number of tooth extractions among all patients was 0.4 per patient and 1.7 per extraction patient. Among all tooth extractions (n = 82 677), main reasons were caries 29.5%, apical periodontitis 19.4%, tooth remnant 19.4% and periodontitis 18.0%. Tooth remnant predominated as extraction reason in the oldest age groups, while apical periodontitis displayed an upward trend by calendar year.

CONCLUSION

Tooth extractions attributable to caries were common in all old-age groups, tooth remnant extractions were most common in older age groups, and apical periodontitis abounded as extraction reason during 2007-2015.

Managing medical and psychiatric multimorbidity in older patients

Aging increases susceptibility both to psychiatric and medical disorders through a variety of processes ranging from biochemical to pharmacologic to societal. Interactions between aging-related brain changes, emotional and psychological symptoms, and social factors contribute to multimorbidity - the presence of two or more chronic conditions in an individual - which requires a more patient-centered, holistic approach than used in traditional single-disease treatment guidelines. Optimal treatment of older adults with psychiatric and medical multimorbidity necessitates an appreciation and understanding of the links between biological, psychological, and social factors - including trauma and racism - that underlie physical and psychiatric multimorbidity in older adults, all of which are the topic of this review.

The impact of age-related syndromes on ICU process and outcomes in very old patients

In this narrative review, we describe the most important age-related "syndromes" found in the old ICU patients. The syndromes are frailty, comorbidity, cognitive decline, malnutrition, sarcopenia, loss of functional autonomy, immunosenescence and inflam-ageing. The underlying geriatric condition, together with the admission diagnosis and the acute severity contribute to the short-term, but also to the long-term prognosis. Besides mortality, functional status and quality of life are major outcome variables. The geriatric assessment is a key tool for long-term qualitative outcome, while immediate severity accounts for acute mortality. A poor functional baseline reduces the chances of a successful outcome following ICU. This review emphasises the importance of using a geriatric assessment and considering the older patient as a whole, rather than the acute illness in isolation, when making decisions regarding intensive care treatment.

20-year trends in multimorbidity by race/ethnicity among hospitalized patient populations in the United States

BACKGROUND

The challenges presented by multimorbidity continue to rise in the United States. Little is known about how the relative contribution of individual chronic conditions to multimorbidity has changed over time, and how this varies by race/ethnicity. The objective of this study was to describe trends in multimorbidity by race/ethnicity, as well as to determine the differential contribution of individual chronic conditions to multimorbidity in hospitalized populations over a 20-year period within the United States.

METHODS

This is a serial cross-sectional study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 1993 to 2012. We identified all hospitalized patients aged ≥ 18 years old with available data on race/ethnicity. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of 3 or more conditions based on the Elixhauser comorbidity index. The relative change in the proportion of hospitalized patients with multimorbidity, overall and by race/ethnicity (Black, White, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, Native American) were tabulated and presented graphically. Population attributable fractions were estimated from modified Poisson regression models adjusted for sex, age, and insurance type. These fractions were used to describe the relative contribution of individual chronic conditions to multimorbidity over time and across racial/ethnic groups.

RESULTS

There were 123,613,970 hospitalizations captured within the NIS between 1993 and 2012. The prevalence of multimorbidity increased in all race/ethnic groups over the 20-year period, most notably among White, Black, and Native American populations (+ 29.4%, + 29.7%, and + 32.0%, respectively). In both 1993 and 2012, Black hospitalized patients had a higher prevalence of multimorbidity (25.1% and 54.8%, respectively) compared to all other race/ethnic groups. Native American populations exhibited the largest overall increase in multimorbidity (+ 32.0%). Furthermore, the contribution of metabolic diseases to multimorbidity increased, particularly among Hispanic patients who had the highest population attributable fraction values for diabetes without complications (15.0%), diabetes with complications (5.1%), and obesity (5.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

From 1993 to 2012, the secular increases in the prevalence of multimorbidity as well as changes in the differential contribution of individual chronic conditions has varied substantially by race/ethnicity. These findings further elucidate the racial/ethnic gaps prevalent in multimorbidity within the United States.

PRIOR PRESENTATIONS

Preliminary finding of this study were presented at the Society of General Internal Medicine (SGIM) Annual Conference, Washington, DC, April 21, 2017.

Effect on life expectancy of temporal sequence in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure among 1·7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up: a retrospective cohort study using linked data

BACKGROUND

To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical-mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile).

FINDINGS

Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0-65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased.

INTERPRETATION

The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death.

FUNDING

Health Data Research UK.

Prevalence and factors associated with multimorbidity in adults in Brazil, according to sex: a population-based cross-sectional survey

Introduction

Multimorbidity, defined as the coexistence of two or more chronic diseases in the same individual, represents a significant health challenge. However, there is limited evidence on its prevalence and associated factors in developing countries, such as Brazil, especially stratified by sex. Thus, this study aims to estimate the prevalence and analyze the factors associated with multimorbidity in Brazilian adults according to sex.

Methods

Cross-sectional population-based household survey carried out with Brazilian adults aged 18 years or older. The sampling strategy consisted of a three-stage conglomerate plan. The three stages were performed through simple random sampling. Data were collected through individual interviews. Multimorbidity was classified based on a list of 14 self-reported chronic diseases/conditions. Poisson regression analysis was performed to estimate the magnitude of the association between sociodemographic and lifestyle factors with the prevalence of multimorbidity stratified by sex.

Results

A total of 88,531 individuals were included. In absolute terms, the prevalence of multimorbidity was 29.4%. The frequency in men and women was 22.7 and 35.4%, respectively. Overall, multimorbidity was more prevalent among women, the older people, residents of the South and Southeast regions, urban area residents, former smokers, current smokers, physically inactive, overweight, and obese adults. Individuals with complete high school/incomplete higher education had a lower prevalence of multimorbidity than those with higher educational level. The associations between education and multimorbidity differed between sexes. In men, multimorbidity was inversely associated with the strata of complete middle school/incomplete high school and complete high school/incomplete higher education, while in women, the association between these variables was not observed. Physical inactivity was positively associated with a higher prevalence of multimorbidity only in men. An inverse association was verified between the recommended fruit and vegetable consumption and multimorbidity for the total sample and both sexes.

Conclusion

One in four adults had multimorbidity. Prevalence increased with increasing age, among women, and was associated with some lifestyles. Multimorbidity was significantly associated with educational level and physical inactivity only in men. The results suggest the need to adopt integrated strategies to reduce the magnitude of multimorbidity, specific by gender, including actions for health promotion, disease prevention, health surveillance and comprehensive health care in Brazil.

Effect of In-Person Delivered Behavioural Interventions in People with Multimorbidity: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To investigate the effect of in-person delivered behavioural interventions in people with multimorbidity and which behaviour change techniques (BCTs), targeting lifestyle behaviours, are associated with better outcomes.

METHODS

Systematic review of randomised controlled trials. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and CINAHL and screened reference list of reviews including people with multimorbidity, registries, and citation tracking of included studies. Meta-analyses using random-effects model to assess the effect of behavioural interventions and meta-regression analyses and effectiveness ratios to investigate the impact of mediators on effect estimates. Cochrane 'Risk of Bias Tool' 2.0 and the GRADE assessment to evaluate the overall quality of evidence.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies involving 1,378 people. Behavioural interventions had little to no effect on physical activity (standardised mean difference 0.38, 95% CI -0.12-0.87) and the effect on weight loss was uncertain (BMI mean difference -0.17, 95% CI -1.1-0.83) at the end-treatment follow-up. Small improvements were seen in health-related quality of life (SMD 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.42) and physical function (SMD 0.42, 95% CI 0.12-0.73), and moderate improvements were seen for depression symptoms (SMD -0.70, 95% CI -0.97-0.42). Studies using the BCTs 'action planning' and 'social support (practical)' reported greater physical activity and weight loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Behavioural interventions targeting lifestyle behaviours may improve health-related quality of life and physical function, and reduce depression, whereas little to no effect was achieved on physical activity and weight loss in people with multimorbidity. However, the evidence for physical activity and weight loss were of low quality and the end-treatment benefits diminished over time.

Mortality among Canadian population with multimorbidity: A retrospective cohort study

Objective

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of multimorbidity and the joint effect of chronic diseases on all-cause mortality among subjects aged 35 years and above.

Study Design

Population-based retrospective cohort study.

Methods

Multimorbidity was defined by the respondent's self-report of having two or more chronic diseases of the nine considered. The Canadian Community Health Surveys conducted in 2003/2004, 2005/2006 and 2007 to 2014 were linked with the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database to examine the association between multimorbidity and all-cause mortality in subjects aged 35 years and above. Cox's proportional hazards models were used to estimate risk of multimorbidity on death after adjusting for the confounders in three age groups.

Results

Multimorbidity had an increased risk of death in all three age groups with the youngest having the highest risk after adjusting for potential confounders (35 to 54 years: hazard ratio (HR) = 3.77, 95% CI: 3.04, 4.67; 55 to 64 years: HR = 2.64, 95% CI: 2.36, 2.95; 65 years and above: HR = 1.71; 95% CI:1.63,1.80). Subjects with cancer had the highest risk of death in the three age groups. When the interactions between chronic diseases were considered, subjects with COPD and diabetes had a significantly increased risk of death in comparison to those without COPD or diabetes in the 55 to 64 years. (HR = 2.59, 95% CI: 2.01, 3.34).

Conclusions

Prevention of multimorbidity should be targeted not only in the older population but also in the younger populations. Synergistic effects of chronic diseases should be considered in the management of multimorbidities.

Personalised exercise therapy and self-management support for people with multimorbidity: feasibility of the MOBILIZE intervention

BACKGROUND

Exercise therapy is safe and effective in people with single conditions, but the feasibility in people with two or more conditions is unclear. Therefore, the aim was to evaluate the feasibility of exercise therapy and self-management in people with multimorbidity prior to a randomised, controlled trial (RCT).

METHODS

This was a mixed-methods feasibility study performed in two general hospitals and one psychiatric hospital. 20 adult patients (8 females; mean age (SD) 67 (6.9)) with at least two long-term conditions and a score of ≥ 3 on Disease Burden Impact Scale for at least one condition (at least moderate limitations of daily activities) and of ≥ 2 for at least one other condition. Patients with unstable health conditions, at risk of serious adverse events (SAE) or with terminal conditions were excluded. Participants received 12 weeks of exercise (18 60-min group-based and 6 home-based sessions) and self-management support (6 90-min group-based sessions) supervised by physiotherapists. Pre-defined progression to RCT criteria were the primary outcomes and included recruitment rate (acceptable 20 participants in 3 months), retention through follow-up (75% retention), compliance (75% complete > 9 of exercise and > 3 self-management sessions), outcome burden (80% do not find outcomes too burdensome), improvement in quality of life (EQ-5D-5L) and function (6-min walk test; ≥ 50% experience clinically relevant improvements) and intervention-related SAEs (No SAEs). Furthermore, a purposeful sample including eleven participants and two facilitators were interviewed about their experiences of participating/facilitating. Qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Recruitment rate (20 in 49 days), retention (85%), outcome burden (95%), and SAEs (0 related to intervention) were acceptable, while compliance (70%) and improvements (35% in quality of life, 46% in function) were not (amendment needed before proceeding to RCT). The intervention was found acceptable by both participants and physiotherapists with some barriers among participants relating to managing multiple chronic conditions while caring for others or maintaining a job. Physiotherapists expressed a need for additional training.

CONCLUSIONS

Exercise therapy and self-management are feasible in people with multimorbidity. The subsequent RCT, amending the intervention according to progression criteria and feedback, will determine whether the intervention is superior to usual care alone.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04645732 Open Science Framework https://osf.io/qk6yg/.

Study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial of personalized exercise therapy and self-management support for people with multimorbidity: The MOBILIZE study

Background

Despite the great individual and societal burden associated with multimorbidity, little is known about how to effectively manage it.

Objective

The aim of this multicenter randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to investigate the 12-month effects of a personalized exercise therapy and self-management support program in addition to usual care in people with multimorbidity.

Design

This is a protocol for a pragmatic, parallel-group (1:1 ratio), superiority RCT conducted at five intervention sites (two hospitals, a private practice physiotherapy clinic and two municipal rehabilitation centers) in Region Zealand, Denmark. A total of 228 persons with multimorbidity aged 18 years or older, will be randomly allocated to one of two groups. Both groups will receive usual care, defined as routine care for multimorbidity at the discretion of the treating doctor, while the intervention group will also participate in a 12-week exercise therapy and self-management support program tailored to people with multimorbidity at one of the intervention sites. The primary outcome will be the between-group difference in change in EQ-5D-5L from baseline to the follow-up at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include objectively-measured physical function and physical activity, inflammatory markers, disease and treatment burden, anxiety, depression, stress, sleep, pain and other self-reported parameters. In parallel with the RCT, an observational cohort will follow persons aged ≥18 years with multimorbidity not adhering to all eligibility criteria, as well as people fulfilling all eligibility criteria, but unwilling to participate in the RCT. This study was approved by the Regional Committee on Health Research Ethics for Region Zealand (SJ-857) and results will be communicated in scientific papers, at relevant conferences and to a broader audience.

Discussion

Exercise therapy and self-management support is safe and effective in people with single conditions. However, it is still unclear whether this holds true for individuals with multimorbidity. This pragmatic, multicenter RCT will provide high-quality evidence on the benefits and harms of exercise therapy and self-management support and, if the results support it, lead to the development of a plan for implementation in clinical practice.

Multimorbidity, depression with anxiety symptoms, and decrements in health in 47 low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Comorbid depression and anxiety is associated with worse health outcomes compared to depression or anxiety occurring in isolation, but there is little data on its association with multimorbidity. Thus, we investigated this association across 47 low- and middle-income countries, and further explored whether having anxiety symptoms in addition to depression is associated with significant declines in health outcomes among those with multimorbidity.

METHODS

Cross-sectional, predominantly nationally representative, community-based data were analyzed from the World Health Survey. DSM-IV depression was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Anxiety symptoms referred to severe/extreme problems with worry or anxiety. Ten chronic conditions and health status across five domains (cognition, interpersonal activities, sleep/energy, self-care, pain/discomfort) were assessed. Multivariable regression analyses conducted.

RESULTS

Data included 237,952 adults aged ≥18 years [mean age (SD) 38.4 (16.0); 50.8 % females]. Compared to no chronic conditions, 2 (OR = 6.86; 95%CI = 5.59-8.42), 3 (OR = 12.33; 95%CI = 9.72-15.63), and ≥4 (OR = 26.55; 95%CI = 20.21-35.17) chronic conditions were associated with significantly higher odds for comorbid depression/anxiety symptoms (vs. no depression or anxiety symptoms) in the multinomial logistic regression model. Among those with depression and multimorbidity, anxiety symptoms were associated with significantly worse health status across all domains.

LIMITATIONS

Cross-sectional design, depression and anxiety symptoms were not based on a clinical assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbid depression/anxiety is common in people with multimorbidity, and anxiety symptoms in people with depression and multimorbidity signify worse health status. Future studies should assess the utility of screening for and treating comorbid depression/anxiety in patients with multimorbidity in terms of clinical outcomes.

Evaluation design of the patient-centred pathways of early palliative care, supportive ecosystems and appraisal standard (InAdvance): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Palliative care aims to contribute to pain relief, improvement with regard to symptoms and enhancement of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients with chronic conditions. Most of the palliative care protocols, programmes and units are predominantly focused on patients with cancer and their specific needs. Patients with non-cancer chronic conditions may also have significantly impaired HRQoL and poor survival, but do not yet receive appropriate and holistic care. The traditional focus of palliative care has been at the end-of-life stages instead of the relatively early phases of serious chronic conditions. The 'Patient-centred pathways of early palliative care, supportive ecosystems and appraisal standard' (InAdvance) project implements and evaluates early palliative care in the daily clinical routine addressing patients with complex chronic conditions in the evolution towards advanced stages. The objective of the current study is to evaluate the acceptability, feasibility, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of this novel model of palliative care in the relatively early phases in patients with chronic conditions.

METHODS

In this study, a single blind randomised controlled trial design will be employed. A total of 320 participants (80 in each study site and 4 sites in total) will be randomised on a 1:1 basis to the Palliative Care Needs Assessment (PCNA) arm or the Care-as-Usual arm. This study includes a formative evaluation approach as well as a cost-effectiveness analysis with a within-trial horizon. Study outcomes will be assessed at baseline, 6 weeks, 6 months, 12 months and 18 months after the implementation of the interventions. Study outcomes include HRQoL, intensity of symptoms, functional status, emotional distress, caregiving burden, perceived quality of care, adherence to treatment, feasibility, acceptability, and appropriateness of the intervention, intervention costs, other healthcare costs and informal care costs.

DISCUSSION

The InAdvance project will evaluate the effect of the implementation of the PCNA intervention on the target population in terms of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in four European settings. The evidence of the project will provide step-wise guidance to contribute an increased evidence base for policy recommendations and clinical guidelines, in an effort to augment the supportive ecosystem for palliative care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN, ISRCTN24825698 . Registered 17/12/2020.

Multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity, their prevalence, and associated factors on a remote island in Japan: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Evidence is still limited on the prevalence of multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity in Japan, as well as their associated factors. Additionally, no studies regarding multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity in Japan have used patient data obtained directly from medical records. The primary objective was to clarify the prevalence of multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity using patient data obtained directly from medical records. The secondary objective was to elucidate factors associated with multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study at Tarama Clinic on Tarama Island, a remote island in Okinawa, Japan. Among patients who visited Tarama Clinic from April 1 to June 30, 2018, those who were ≥ 20 years of age, lived on Tarama Island, and had capacity to give consent were eligible for study inclusion. We collected the following data using medical records, medical expense receipts, and self-administered questionnaires: multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity, participants' characteristics, and potentially associated factors. Multimorbidity was defined as having ≥ 2 among 17 chronic health conditions, in accordance with previous studies conducted in Japan, and having ≥ 2 among 16 chapters of the International Classification of Primary Care, 2nd edition (ICPC-2). Complex multimorbidity was defined as having ≥ 3 among 16 chapters of the ICPC-2.

RESULTS

We included 355 study participants. Descriptive analysis showed multimorbidity prevalence measured using the 17 chronic health conditions in this area was 30.0% (age ≥ 20 years) and 57.5% (age ≥ 65 years). Multimorbidity prevalence measured using the ICPC-2 was 32.9% (age ≥ 20 years) and 60.3% (age ≥ 65 years). We also found a 20.9% (age ≥ 20 years) and 45.1% (age ≥ 65 years) prevalence of complex multimorbidity, respectively. Poisson regression with robust error variance showed that age ≥ 60 years was associated with multimorbidity. Age ≥ 60 years (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 1.887 and 1.831 for ages 60-79 and ≥ 80 years, respectively) and being unemployed (aPR 1.251) were associated with complex multimorbidity. However, having hazardous drinking or more was inversely associated with complex multimorbidity (aPR 0.745).

CONCLUSIONS

The population-based prevalence of multimorbidity and its upward trend with increasing age on a remote island in Japan was consistent with previous reports in the country. Multimorbidity was associated with age 60 years or older, and complex multimorbidity was associated with age 60 years or older, being unemployed, and not having hazardous drinking or more. Our study findings indicated a possible association between the coexistence of diseases and social determinants of health (SDH) in Japan. To improve care for patients with multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity, more research that takes SDH into account is warranted, and evidence-based policymaking is essential for Japan. The present study can provide a foundation for accumulating such evidence.

Development and validation of a new prognostic index for mortality risk in multimorbid adults

Context

Multimorbidity is highly prevalent among older adults and associated with a high mortality. Prediction of mortality in multimorbid people would be clinically useful but there is no mortality risk index designed for this population. Our objective was therefore to develop and internally validate a 1-year mortality prognostic index for older multimorbid adults.

Methods

We analysed data of the OPERAM cohort study in Bern, Switzerland, including 822 adults aged 70 years or more with multimorbidity (3 or more chronic medical conditions) and polypharmacy (use of 5 drugs or more for >30 days). Time to all-cause mortality was assessed up to 1 year of follow-up. We performed a parametric Weibull regression model with backward stepwise selection to identify mortality risk predictors. The model was internally validated and optimism corrected using bootstrapping techniques. We derived a point-based risk score from the regression coefficients. Calibration and discrimination were assessed by the calibration slope and C statistic.

Results

805 participants were included in the analysis. During 1-year of follow-up, 158 participants (20%) had died. Age, Charlson-Comorbidity-Index, number of drugs, body mass index, number of hospitalizations, Barthel-Index (functional impairment), and nursing home residency were predictors of 1-year mortality in a multivariable model. Using these variables, the 1-year probability of dying could be predicted with an optimism-corrected C statistic of 0.70. The optimism-corrected calibration slope was 0.93. Based on the derived point-based risk score to predict mortality risk, 7% of the patients classified at low-risk of mortality, 19% at moderate-risk, and 37% at high-risk died after one year of follow-up. A simpler mortality score, without the Charlson-Comorbidity-Index and Barthel-Index, showed reduced discriminative power (optimism-corrected C statistic: 0.59) compared to the full score.

Conclusion

We developed and internally validated a mortality risk index including for the first-time specific predictors for multimorbid adults. This new 1-year mortality prediction point-based score allowed to classify multimorbid older patients into three categories of increasing risk of mortality. Further validation of the score among various populations of multimorbid patients is needed before its implementation into practice.

Impact of multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity on mortality among older Australians aged 45 years and over: a large population-based record linkage study

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity (MM, co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions) and complex multimorbidity (CMM, three or more chronic conditions affecting three or more different body systems) are used in the assessment of complex healthcare needs and their impact on health outcomes. However, little is known about the impacts of MM and CMM on mortality in Australia.

DESIGN

Community-based prospective cohort study.

SETTING

New South Wales, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

People aged 45 years and over who completed the baseline survey of the 45 and Up Study.

MEASURES

Baseline survey data from the 45 and Up Study were linked with deaths registry data. Deaths that occurred within 8 years from the baseline survey date were the study outcome. Eleven self-reported chronic conditions (cancer, heart disease, diabetes, stroke, Parkinson's disease, depression/anxiety, asthma, allergic rhinitis, hypertension, thrombosis and musculoskeletal conditions) from the baseline survey were included in the MM and CMM classifications. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted and unadjusted 8-year mortality hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

Of 251 689 people (53% female and 54% aged ≥60 years) in the cohort, 111 084 (44.1%) were classified as having MM and 39 478 (15.7%) as having CMM. During the 8-year follow-up, there were 25 891 deaths. Cancer (34.7%) was the most prevalent chronic condition and the cardiovascular system (50.9%) was the body system most affected by a chronic condition. MM and CMM were associated with a 37% (adjusted HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.40) and a 22% (adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.25) increased risk of death, respectively. The relative impact of MM and CMM on mortality decreased as age increased.

CONCLUSION

MM and CMM were common in older Australian adults; and MM was a better predictor of all-cause mortality risk than CMM. Higher mortality risk in those aged 45-59 years indicates tailored, person-centred integrated care interventions and better access to holistic healthcare are needed for this age group.

Multimorbidity

Multimorbidity (two or more coexisting conditions in an individual) is a growing global challenge with substantial effects on individuals, carers and society. Multimorbidity occurs a decade earlier in socioeconomically deprived communities and is associated with premature death, poorer function and quality of life and increased health-care utilization. Mechanisms underlying the development of multimorbidity are complex, interrelated and multilevel, but are related to ageing and underlying biological mechanisms and broader determinants of health such as socioeconomic deprivation. Little is known about prevention of multimorbidity, but focusing on psychosocial and behavioural factors, particularly population level interventions and structural changes, is likely to be beneficial. Most clinical practice guidelines and health-care training and delivery focus on single diseases, leading to care that is sometimes inadequate and potentially harmful. Multimorbidity requires person-centred care, prioritizing what matters most to the individual and the individual's carers, ensuring care that is effectively coordinated and minimally disruptive, and aligns with the patient's values. Interventions are likely to be complex and multifaceted. Although an increasing number of studies have examined multimorbidity interventions, there is still limited evidence to support any approach. Greater investment in multimorbidity research and training along with reconfiguration of health care supporting the management of multimorbidity is urgently needed.

Impact on 6-month outcomes of hospital trajectory in critically ill older patients: analysis of the ICE-CUB2 clinical trial

Background

Little is known about the impact of hospital trajectory on survival and functional decline of older critically ill patients. We evaluate 6-month outcomes after admission to: intensive care units (ICU), intermediate care units (IMCU) or acute medical wards (AMW).

Methods

Data from the randomised prospective multicentre clinical trial ICE-CUB2 was secondarily analysed. Inclusion criteria were: presenting at emergency departments in critical condition; age ≥ 75 years; activity of daily living (ADL) ≥ 4; preserved nutritional status; and no active cancer. A Cox model was fitted to compare survival according to admission destination adjusting for patient characteristics. Sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation for missing data and propensity score matching were performed.

Results

Among 3036 patients, 1675 (55%) were women; median age was 85 [81–99] years; simplified acute physiology score (SAPS-3) 62 [55–69]; 1448 (47%) were hospitalised in an ICU, 504 in IMCU (17%), and 1084 (36%) in AMW. Six-month mortality was 629 (44%), 155 (31%) and 489 (45%) after admission in an ICU, IMCU and AMW (p < 0.001), respectively. In multivariate analysis, AMW admission was associated with worse 6-month survival (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.04–1.63) in comparison with IMCU admission, after adjusting for age, gender, comorbidities, ADL, SAPS-3 and diagnosis. Survival was not significantly different between patients admitted in an ICU and an IMCU (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.95–1.46). Sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation for missing data and propensity score matching found similar results. Hospital destination was not significantly associated with the composite criterion loss of 1-point ADL or mortality. Physical and mental components of the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey were significantly lower in the acute medical ward group (34.3 [27.5–41.7], p = 0.037 and 44.3 [38.6–48.6], p = 0.028, respectively) than in the ICU group (34.7 [28.4–45.3] and 45.5 [40.0–50.0], respectively) and IMCU group (35.7 [29.7–43.8] and 44.5 [39.7–48.4], respectively).

Conclusions

Admission in an AMW was associated with worse 6-month survival in older critically ill patients in comparison with IMCU admission, with no difference of survival between ICU and IMCU admission. There were no clinically relevant differences in quality of life in each group. These results should be confirmed in specific studies and raise the question of dedicated geriatric IMCUs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-01042-4.

SOCRATE-PRODIGE 55 trial: A randomized phase II study to evaluate second-line ramucirumab alone or with paclitaxel in older patients with advanced gastric cancer

INTRODUCTION

Patients ≥ 70 years old constitute 40% of patients with advanced gastric cancer (GC). Ramucirumab plus Paclitaxel is a therapeutic option validated in the second-line treatment of advanced GC, but as older patients are at higher risk of severe toxicity, due to comorbidities and/or frailty, we aimed to evaluate second-line Ramucirumab alone or combined with Paclitaxel in terms of overall survival (OS) and quality of life (QoL) in patients ≥ 70 years-old with advanced GC.

METHODS

In this multicenter, randomized, open-label, non-comparative, prospective phase II clinical trial, the main inclusion criteria are: patients ≥ 70 years old, with advanced GC having progressed after first-line chemotherapy or in the six months following the last administration of adjuvant chemotherapy, with WHO performance status <2. They are randomized to receive either ramucirumab alone (arm A) or ramucirumab plus Paclitaxel (arm B). The primary endpoint is 6-month OS and QoL evaluated with the EORTC QLQ-ELD14 questionnaire. The secondary endpoints include other parameters of QoL, time to definitive deterioration (TTDD) in QoL and TTDD in autonomy, treatment toxicities, other parameters of survival and disease control, identification of geriatric and nutritional prognostic scores and predictive factors of treatment safety and efficacy. OS of 60% is expected at 6 months (H0:40%). Using a Simon-minimax design, with one-sided α risk of 2% and 80% power for OS, and considering 5% lost to follow-up, it is necessary to randomize 56 patients in each arm.

PERSPECTIVES

As older patients are at higher risk of chemotherapy toxicity, ramucirumab alone could be an interesting alternative to Paclitaxel plus ramucirumab, as a second-line therapy for patients ≥ 70 years old with advanced GC, and needs to be evaluated.

Prevalence of multimorbidity and its correlates among older adults in Eastern Nepal

Background

The number of people with multimorbidity is surging around the world. Although multimorbidity has been introduced in policy and practice in developed countries, developing countries like Nepal have not considered it as a matter of public health urgency due to the lack of enough epidemiological data. Multimorbidity profoundly affects older adults’ wellbeing; therefore, it is crucial to estimate its prevalence and determinants. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity among older adults in Eastern Nepal and identify its correlates.

Methodology

A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in three districts of Eastern Nepal. Data were collected between July and September 2020, among 847 Nepali older adults, aged 60 and older, where study participants were recruited through a multi-stage cluster sampling technique. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at the community settings to collect data. Logistic regression assessed correlates of multimorbidity. SAS 9.4 was used to run all statistical tests and analyses.

Results

More than half (66.5%) of the participants had at least one of the five non-communicable chronic conditions; hypertension (31.6%), osteoarthritis (28.6%), chronic respiratory disease (18.0%), diabetes (13.5%), and heart disease (5.3%). The prevalence of multimorbidity was 22.8%. In the adjusted model, increased age (for 70–79 years, OR: 3.11, 95% CI: 1.87–5.18; for 80 + years, OR: 4.19, 95% CI: 2.32–7.57), those without a partner (OR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.00–2.30), residing in urban areas (OR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.16–2.51), and distant from health center (OR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.04–2.64) were significantly associated with multimorbidity.

Conclusions

This study found one in five study participants had multimorbidity. The findings will assist policymakers and stakeholders in understanding the burden of multimorbidity among the older population and identifying the groups in most need of health promotion intervention. Future interventions may include developing horizontal multimorbid approaches and multisectoral strategies specifically tailored to meet the needs of those populations.

Multimorbidity, activity limitation and self-reported health all predict mortality risk, but better measures were required

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

With an ageing population, morbidity and multiple health conditions are an increasing public health concern. This study aimed to investigate how morbidity as measured by the Charlson comorbidity index and two morbidity measures; activity limitation and self-reported health, individually and collectively explain the increased risk of mortality with age.

METHODS

We used the Northern Ireland Cohort for the Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NICOLA) wave one, dataset, a national representative sample of people over 50 years of age, with follow-up until May 31, 2020. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the associations between a modified Charlson comorbidity index (m-Charlson), self-reported health, activity limitation, and mortality in the Northern Irish cohort.

RESULTS

m-Charlson showed a steeper relationship with age, the proportion of participants with a Charlson of two or more increase from 15.2% (aged 50-59) to 32.0% (aged 80+). All measures of morbidity exhibited a strong relationship with socio-economic status, though the gradients were more marked for self-reported health than for activity limitation or Charlson index. All three morbidity measures were independently related to mortality risk though the associations attenuated with age. However, even in models with all three measures of morbidity, most of the age-related increase in mortality risk remained unexplained.

CONCLUSION

All three morbidity measures carry separate and independent information about the health status of older people and therefore about mortality risk; it is apparent that it is still worth asking patients how they feel and how their health is affecting their activity. Further research should aim to dissect health trajectories in dynamic prediction models in addition to other measures of health status.

Integrated Care for Multimorbidity Population in Asian Countries: A Scoping Review

Background:

The complex needs of patients with multiple chronic diseases call for integrated care (IC). This scoping review examines several published Asian IC programmes and their relevant components and elements in managing multimorbidity patients.

Method:

A scoping review was conducted by searching electronic databases encompassing Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science. Three key concepts – 1) integrated care, 2) multimorbidity, and 3) Asian countries – were used to define searching strategies. Studies were included if an IC programme in Asia for multimorbidity was described or evaluated. Data extraction for IC components and elements was carried out by adopting the SELFIE framework.

Results:

This review yielded 1,112 articles, of which 156 remained after the title and abstract screening and 27 studies after the full-text screening – with 23 IC programmes identified from seven Asian countries. The top 5 mentioned IC components were service delivery (n = 23), workforce (n = 23), leadership and governance (n = 23), monitoring (n = 15), and environment (n = 14); whist financing (n = 9) was least mentioned. Compared to EU/US countries, technology and medical products (Asia: 40%, EU/US: 43%-100%) and multidisciplinary teams (Asia: 26%, EU/US: 50%–81%) were reported less in Asia. Most programmes involved more micro-level elements that coordinate services at the individual level (n = 20) than meso- and macro-level elements, and programmes generally incorporated horizontal and vertical integration (n = 14).

Conclusion:

In the IC programmes for patients with multimorbidity in Asia, service delivery, leadership, and workforce were most frequently mentioned, while the financing component was least mentioned. There appears to be considerable scope for development.

Highlights

Effectiveness of a 24-hour access outpatient clinic for patients with chronic conditions in hospital outpatient follow-up: a registry-based controlled cohort study of healthcare utilisation and mortality

Objective

To evaluate the effectiveness of a 24-hour telephone access outpatient clinic (24-hour access clinic) in terms of healthcare utilisation and mortality in patients with five chronic conditions (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, atrial fibrillation/flutter, congestive heart failure, inflammatory bowel disease and chronic liver disease).

Methods and analysis

This was a registry-based controlled cohort study. The 24-hour access clinic was established at Silkeborg Regional Hospital in Central Denmark Region. The five other regional hospitals served as comparison hospitals. The 24-hour access clinic allowed patients with five chronic conditions with ongoing hospital outpatient follow-up to call the hospital outpatient clinic in case of an exacerbation. Outcomes were use of hospital admissions, length of stay (LOS), outpatient visits, contacts to general practice and all-cause mortality during 18 months of follow-up.

Results

The study included 992 the 24-hour access patients and 3878 usual care patients. For the five conditions combined, the 24 hours access patients had fewer all-cause admissions (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.81, 95% Cl 0.71 to 0.92), general practice out-of-hours contacts (IRR 0.81, 95% C 0.71 to .92) and shorter LOS (IRR 0.71, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.88). The rate of all-cause outpatient visits tended to be higher (IRR 1.07, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.15). General practice daytime contacts were similar between the groups, and there was no significant difference in mortality.

Conclusions

The results suggest that a 24-hour telephone access clinic may lead to enhanced integration of care measured as unplanned acute care substituted with planned outpatient care.

Analysis of multiple chronic disease characteristics in South Koreans by age groups using association rules analysis

The prevalence of MCD (multiple chronic disease) is increasing due to increased life expectancies and aging populations. Individual and socioeconomic burdens of MCD are also increasing. To reduce these burdens, it is necessary to establish policies to prevent MCD; therefore, it is important to understand the characteristics of MCD in the current population. In this study, the combinations of MCD that affect hypertension, which has the highest prevalence, were examined according to different age groups. The combinations of diseases were identified utilizing association rules analysis, using the Community Health Survey as the raw data. Two association rules were determined in young adult group, 18 in the middle-aged group, and 30 in the senior group, showing that the number of rules increases with age. Association rules of this study mean that combined chronic diseases are highly associated with hypertension. Then logistic regression analysis was performed on the MCD combinations with highest lift value in each age group to identify relationships between health behavior and MCD combinations. Especially, alcohol consumption was found to be a common factor affecting MCD prevalence in three combinations. On the contrary, sleep habit did not have a statistically significant influence on any combination.

To what extent are comorbidity profiles associated with referral and uptake to cardiac rehabilitation

INTRODUCTION

Given the high proportion of comorbidities in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and low participation rates in cardiac rehabilitation (CR), a better understanding of how comorbidity interacts with the CR pathway is needed. We investigated associations between comorbidity profiles and referral and uptake in everyday clinical CR across UK.

METHOD

Patients (≥18 years) diagnosed with a CHD between 1st of January 2014 and 31st of December 2019 registered in the National Audit of Cardiac Rehabilitation (NACR) database were eligible. Self-reported comorbidities from 15 disease categories were conceptualized into similar or dissimilar based on overall related pathophysiologic profile and care management as CHD. Regression models were conducted with four comorbidity profiles; similar conditions, dissimilar conditions, similar and dissimilar and no comorbidity.

RESULTS

399,348 (61.8%) patients were eligible for referral from 198 programmes. The majority were males (70%), mean age of 67 (±12 SD) years. A non-significant association was found between comorbidity profiles and referral. Odds ratios (OR) for CR uptake were higher in patients with dissimilar (OR = 1.38 (95% CI 1.26-1.54)) and dissimilar and similar comorbidities profiles (OR = 1.35 (95% CI 1.21-1.43)) compared to patients with similar comorbidities. No significant differences in uptake were found between patients with similar comorbidities and those without comorbidities (OR = 0.985 (95% CI 0.854-1.125).

CONCLUSION

Using routine practice data, comorbidity profiles were not significantly associated with CR referral suggesting equality in referral. Dissimilar comorbidity profiles were associated with uptake. To increase the likelihood of starting CR, services should consider developing tailored participation strategies that include comorbidity profiles.

Interventions for improving outcomes in patients with multimorbidity in primary care and community setting: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity, defined as the co-existence of two or more chronic conditions, presents significant challenges to patients, healthcare providers and health systems. Despite this, there is ongoing uncertainty about the most effective ways to manage patients with multimorbidity. This review updated and narrowed the focus of a previous Cochrane review and aimed to determine the effectiveness of interventions designed to improve outcomes in people with multimorbidity in primary care and community settings, compared to usual care.

METHODS

We searched eight databases and two trials registers up to 9 September 2019. Two review authors independently screened potentially eligible titles and selected studies, extracted data, evaluated study quality and judged the certainty of the evidence (GRADE). Interventions were grouped by their predominant focus into care-coordination/self-management support, self-management support and medicines management. Main outcomes were health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and mental health. Meta-analyses were conducted, where possible, but the synthesis was predominantly narrative.

RESULTS

We included 16 RCTs with 4753 participants, the majority being older adults with at least three conditions. There were eight care-coordination/self-management support studies, four self-management support studies and four medicines management studies. There was little or no evidence of an effect on primary outcomes of HRQoL (MD 0.03, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.07, I2 = 39%) and mental health or on secondary outcomes with a small number of studies reporting that care coordination may improve patient experience of care and self-management support may improve patient health behaviours. Overall, the certainty of the evidence was graded as low due to significant variation in study participants and interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

There are remaining uncertainties about the effectiveness of interventions for people with multimorbidity, despite the growing number of RCTs conducted in this area. Our findings suggest that future research should consider patient experience of care, optimising medicines management and targeted patient health behaviours such as exercise.

Prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in the population of Kosovo

Objectives

To observe the prevalence of arterial pressure and glycemia in Kosovo and to provide free screening service through health promotion.

Methods

This prospective study was conducted over a 3-year period, during 2017–2019. All data were collected by AAB College staff in 11 Kosovo cities prior to a random sample with 7254 observations. Data included demographic information as well as blood pressure and glycemic level measurements.

Results

The overall prevalence of arterial pressure was registered at 27.6% and diabetes mellitus at 9.2%. Arterial pressure in females had a tendency to increase with age (r = 0.3552, P < 0.001), as well as the glycemic index (r = 0.1997, P < 0.001). Nevertheless, age had a stronger impact on males than in females, with regard to higher arterial pressure in the year 2017 (P < 0.001). In the following years, 2018 and 2019, the ratio had reversed. Glycemia had strong correlation with systolic arterial pressure value (P < 0.001). For a 1 mmol/L increase in glycemia, the diastolic value increased by 0.19 mmHg on average.

Conclusions

This study concluded that at younger ages the values of arterial pressure and glycemia remain within the commonly observed range, but over the years the probability for higher blood pressure or glicemia increases. Through continuous control of arterial pressure and glycemia at an early age, it is possible to identify abnormal diagnostics, in order to address them in time. Educational initiatives and screenings should take place in order to increase awareness of the citizens for checking themselves regularly.

Multimorbidity study with different levels of depression status

OBJECTIVE

Depression is one of the leading causes of disability burden and frequently co-occurs with multiple chronic diseases, but limited research has yet evaluated the correlation between multimorbidity and depression status by sex and age.

METHODS

29303 adults from 2005-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were involved in the study. The validated Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was used to assess depression status. The linear trend of the prevalence of multimorbidity was tested by logistic regressions, which was visualized by the weighted network. Gamma coefficient (γ) was used to evaluate the correlation between multimorbidity and depression status.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multimorbidity in participants with no depression, mild depression, moderate depression and severe depression was 52.1%, 63.0%, 68.4% and 76.1%, respectively (p for trend < 0.001). In network analysis, the absolute network density increased with the levels of depression status (from 4.54 to 15.04). Positive correlation was identified between multimorbidity and depression status (γ=0.21, p<0.001), and the correlation was different by sex and age, where it was stronger in women than men (females: γ=0.23, males: γ=0.16), and stronger in the young and the middle-age (young: γ=0.30, middle-age: γ=0.29, old: γ=0.22).

LIMITATIONS

This is a cross-sectional study and thus we cannot draw firm conclusions on causal correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

Positive correlation between multimorbidity and depression status was identified, where the number of multimorbidity increased with the levels of depression status, especially in females, the young and the middle-age.

Development and validation of a life expectancy estimator for multimorbid older adults: a cohort study protocol

BACKGROUND

Older multimorbid adults have a high risk of mortality and a short life expectancy (LE). Providing high-value care and avoiding care overuse, including of preventive care, is a serious challenge among multimorbid patients. While guidelines recommend to tailor preventive care according to the estimated LE, there is no tool to estimate LE in this specific population. Our objective is therefore to develop an LE estimator for older multimorbid adults by transforming a mortality prognostic index, which will be developed and internally validated in a prospective cohort.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will analyse data of the Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People cohort study in Bern, Switzerland. 822 participants were included at hospitalisation with age of 70 years or older, multimorbidity (three or more chronic medical conditions) and polypharmacy (use of five drugs or more for >30 days). All-cause mortality will be assessed during 3 years of follow-up. We will apply a flexible parametric survival model with backward stepwise selection to identify the mortality risk predictors. The model will be internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. We will derive a point-based risk score from the regression coefficients. We will transform the 3-year mortality prognostic index into an LE estimator using the Gompertz survival function. We will perform a qualitative assessment of the clinical usability of the LE estimator and its application. We will conduct the development and validation of the mortality prognostic index following the Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) framework and report it following the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Written informed consent by patients themselves or, in the case of cognitive impairment, by a legal representative, was required before enrolment. The local ethics committee (Kantonale Ethikkommission Bern) has approved the study. We plan to publish the results in peer-reviewed journals and present them at national and international conferences.

Mortality of Older Patients Admitted to an ICU: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a systematic review of mortality and factors independently associated with mortality in older patients admitted to ICU.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and references of included studies.

STUDY SELECTION

Two reviewers independently selected studies conducted after 2000 evaluating mortality of older patients (≥ 75 yr old) admitted to ICU.

DATA EXTRACTION

General characteristics, mortality rate, and factors independently associated with mortality were extracted independently by two reviewers. Disagreements were solved by discussion within the study team.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Because of expected heterogeneity, no meta-analysis was performed. We selected 129 studies (median year of publication, 2015; interquartile range, 2012-2017) including 17 based on a national registry. Most were conducted in Europe and North America. The median number of included patients was 278 (interquartile range, 124-1,068). ICU and in-hospital mortality were most frequently reported with considerable heterogeneity observed across studies that was not explained by study design or location. ICU mortality ranged from 1% to 51%, in-hospital mortality from 10% to 76%, 6-month mortality from 21% to 58%, and 1-year mortality from 33% to 72%. Factors addressed in multivariate analyses were also heterogeneous across studies. Severity score, diagnosis at admission, and use of mechanical ventilation were the independent factors most frequently associated with ICU mortality, whereas age, comorbidities, functional status, and severity score at admission were the independent factors most frequently associated with 3- 6 and 12 months mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review of older patients admitted to intensive care, we have documented substantial variation in short- and long-term mortality as well as in prognostic factors evaluated. To better understand this variation, we need consistent, high-quality data on pre-ICU conditions, ICU physiology and treatments, structure and system factors, and post-ICU trajectories. These data could inform geriatric care bundles as well as a core data set of prognostic factors to inform patient-centered decision-making.

Optimizing Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older Adults (OPERAM): cluster randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of optimising drug treatment on drug related hospital admissions in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital.

DESIGN

Cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

110 clusters of inpatient wards within university based hospitals in four European countries (Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, and Republic of Ireland) defined by attending hospital doctors.

PARTICIPANTS

2008 older adults (≥70 years) with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic conditions) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs used long term).

INTERVENTION

Clinical staff clusters were randomised to usual care or a structured pharmacotherapy optimisation intervention performed at the individual level jointly by a doctor and a pharmacist, with the support of a clinical decision software system deploying the screening tool of older person's prescriptions and screening tool to alert to the right treatment (STOPP/START) criteria to identify potentially inappropriate prescribing.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Primary outcome was first drug related hospital admission within 12 months.

RESULTS

2008 older adults (median nine drugs) were randomised and enrolled in 54 intervention clusters (963 participants) and 56 control clusters (1045 participants) receiving usual care. In the intervention arm, 86.1% of participants (n=789) had inappropriate prescribing, with a mean of 2.75 (SD 2.24) STOPP/START recommendations for each participant. 62.2% (n=491) had ≥1 recommendation successfully implemented at two months, predominantly discontinuation of potentially inappropriate drugs. In the intervention group, 211 participants (21.9%) experienced a first drug related hospital admission compared with 234 (22.4%) in the control group. In the intention-to-treat analysis censored for death as competing event (n=375, 18.7%), the hazard ratio for first drug related hospital admission was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.17). In the per protocol analysis, the hazard ratio for a drug related hospital admission was 0.91 (0.69 to 1.19). The hazard ratio for first fall was 0.96 (0.79 to 1.15; 237 v 263 first falls) and for death was 0.90 (0.71 to 1.13; 172 v 203 deaths).

CONCLUSIONS

Inappropriate prescribing was common in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital and was reduced through an intervention to optimise pharmacotherapy, but without effect on drug related hospital admissions. Additional efforts are needed to identify pharmacotherapy optimisation interventions that reduce inappropriate prescribing and improve patient outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02986425.

Longitudinal Follow-Up Studies on the Bidirectional Association between ADL/IADL Disability and Multimorbidity: Results from Two National Sample Cohorts of Middle-Aged and Elderly Adults

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Few studies have investigated the bidirectional relationship between disability and multimorbidity, which are common conditions among the older population. Based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we aimed to investigate the bidirectional relationship between disability and multimorbidity.

METHODS

The activities of daily living (ADLs) and the instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) scales were used to measure disability. In stage I, we used multinomial logistic regression to assess the longitudinal association between ADL/IADL disability and follow-up multimorbidity. In stage II, binary logistic regression was used to evaluate the multimorbidity effect on future disability.

RESULTS

Compared with those free of disability, people with disability possessed ascending risks for developing an increasing number of diseases. For ADL disability, the odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) values of developing ≥4 diseases were 4.10 (2.58, 6.51) and 6.59 (4.54, 9.56) in CHARLS and SHARE; for IADL disability, the OR (95% CI) values were 2.55 (1.69, 3.84) and 4.85 (3.51, 6.70) in CHARLS and SHARE. Meanwhile, the number of diseases at baseline was associated, in a dose-response manner, with future disability. Compared with those without chronic diseases, participants carrying ≥4 diseases had OR (95% CI) values of 4.82 (3.73, 6.21)/4.66 (3.65, 5.95) in CHARLS and 3.19 (2.59, 3.94)/3.28 (2.71, 3.98) in SHARE for developing ADL/IADL disability.

CONCLUSION

The consistent findings across 2 national longitudinal studies supported a strong bidirectional association between disability and multimorbidity among middle-aged and elderly adults. Thus, tailored interventions should be taken to prevent the mutual development of disability and multimorbidity.