Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015-16: a modelling study

Spatial Interaction Analysis of Infectious Disease Import and Export between Regions

Human travel plays a crucial role in the spread of infectious disease between regions. Travel of infected individuals from one region to another can transport a virus to places that were previously unaffected or may accelerate the spread of disease in places where the disease is not yet well established. We develop and apply models and metrics to analyze the role of inter-regional travel relative to the spread of disease, drawing from data on COVID-19 in the United States. To better understand how transportation affects disease transmission, we established a multi-regional time-varying compartmental disease model with spatial interaction. The compartmental model was integrated with statistical estimates of travel between regions. From the integrated model, we derived a transmission import index to assess the risk of COVID-19 transmission between states. Based on the index, we determined states with high risk for disease spreading to other states at the scale of months, and we analyzed how the index changed over time during 2020. Our model provides a tool for policymakers to evaluate the influence of travel between regions on disease transmission in support of strategies for epidemic control.

Assessing internal displacement patterns in Ukraine during the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022

Given the worldwide increase of forcibly displaced populations, particularly internally displaced persons (IDPs), it's crucial to have an up-to-date and precise tracking framework for population movements. Here, we study how the spatial and temporal pattern of a large-scale internal population movement can be monitored using human mobility datasets by exploring the case of IDPs in Ukraine at the beginning of the Russian invasion of 2022. Specifically, this study examines the sizes and travel distances of internal displacements based on GPS human mobility data, using the combinations of mobility pattern estimation methods such as truncated power law fitting and visualizing the results for humanitarian operations. Our analysis reveals that, although the city of Kyiv started to lose its population around 5 weeks before the invasion, a significant drop happened in the second week of the invasion (4.3 times larger than the size of the population lost in 5 weeks before the invasion), and the population coming to the city increased again from the third week of the invasion, indicating that displaced people started to back to their homes. Meanwhile, adjacent southern areas of Kyiv and the areas close to the western borders experienced many migrants from the first week of the invasion and from the second to third weeks of the invasion, respectively. In addition, people from relatively higher-wealth areas tended to relocate their home locations far away from their original locations compared to those from other areas. For example, 19 % of people who originally lived in higher wealth areas in the North region, including the city of Kyiv, moved their home location more than 500 km, while only 9 % of those who originally lived in lower wealth areas in the North region moved their home location more than 500 km..

Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing

Introduction

The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990. No review to date has accumulated the available evidence describing the associations between increasing population and environmental decline, nor solutions for mitigating the problems arising.

Methods

We summarize the available evidence of the relationships between human population size and growth and environmental integrity, human prosperity and wellbeing, and climate change. We used PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify all relevant peer-reviewed and gray-literature sources examining the consequences of human population size and growth on the biosphere. We reviewed papers describing and quantifying the risks associated with population growth, especially relating to climate change.

Results

These risks are global in scale, such as greenhouse-gas emissions, climate disruption, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and spread of disease-all potentially catastrophic for human standards of living, health, and general wellbeing. The trends increasing the risks of global population growth are country development, demographics, maternal education, access to family planning, and child and maternal health.

Conclusion

Support for nations still going through a demographic transition is required to ensure progress occurs within planetary boundaries and promotes equity and human rights. Ensuring the wellbeing for all under this aim itself will lower population growth and further promote environmental sustainability.

Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People's Republic of China, August 2018-September 2019

Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and the subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. To explore the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in China, we reconstructed possible ASF transmission networks using nearest neighbour, exponential function, equal probability, and spatiotemporal case-distribution algorithms. From these networks, we estimated the reproduction numbers, serial intervals, and transmission distances of the outbreak. The mean serial interval between paired units was around 29 days for all algorithms, while the mean transmission distance ranged 332 -456 km. The reproduction numbers for each algorithm peaked during the first two weeks and steadily declined through the end of 2018 before hovering around the epidemic threshold value of 1 with sporadic increases during 2019. These results suggest that 1) swine husbandry practices and production systems that lend themselves to long-range transmission drove ASF spread; 2) outbreaks went undetected by the surveillance system. Efforts by China and other affected countries to control ASF within their jurisdictions may be aided by the reconstructed spatiotemporal model. Continued support for strict implementation of biosecurity standards and improvements to ASF surveillance is essential for halting transmission in China and spread across Asia.

Mechanisms of Yellow Fever Transmission: Gleaning the Overlooked Records of Importance and Identifying Problems, Puzzles, Serious Issues, Surprises and Research Questions

In viral disease research, few diseases can compete with yellow fever for the volume of literature, historical significance, richness of the topics and the amount of strong interest among both scientists and laypersons. While the major foci of viral disease research shifted to other more pressing new diseases in recent decades, many critically important basic tasks still remain unfinished for yellow fever. Some of the examples include the mechanisms of transmission, the process leading to outbreak occurrence, environmental factors, dispersal, and viral persistence in nature. In this review, these subjects are analyzed in depth, based on information not only in old but in modern literatures, to fill in blanks and to update the current understanding on these topics. As a result, many valuable facts, ideas, and other types of information that complement the present knowledge were discovered. Very serious questions about the validity of the arbovirus concept and some research practices were also identified. The characteristics of YFV and its pattern of transmission that make this virus unique among viruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti were also explored. Another emphasis was identification of research questions. The discovery of a few historical surprises was an unexpected benefit.

High Seroprevalence of IgG Antibodies to Multiple Arboviruses in People Living with HIV (PLWHIV) in Madagascar

To estimate the prevalence of IgG antibodies against six arboviruses in people living with HIV-1 (PLWHIV) in Madagascar, we tested samples collected between January 2018 and June 2021. We used a Luminex-based serological assay to detect IgG antibodies against antigens from Dengue virus serotypes 1-4 (DENV1-4), Zika virus (ZIKV), West Nile virus (WNV), Usutu virus (USUV), Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and O'nyong nyong virus (ONNV). Of the 1036 samples tested, IgG antibody prevalence was highest for ONNV (28.4%), CHIKV (26.7%), WNV-NS1 (27.1%), DENV1 (12.4%), USUV (9.9%), and DENV3 (8.9%). ZIKV (4.9%), DENV2 (4.6%), WNV-D3 (5.1%), and DENV4 (1.4%) were lower. These rates varied by province of origin, with the highest rates observed in Toamasina, on the eastern coast (50.5% and 56.8%, for CHIKV and ONNV, respectively). The seroprevalence increased with age for DENV1 and 3 (p = 0.006 and 0.038, respectively) and WNV DIII (p = 0.041). The prevalence of IgG antibodies against any given arborvirus varied over the year and significantly correlated with rainfalls in the different areas (r = 0.61, p = 0.036). Finally, we found a significant correlation between the seroprevalence of antibodies against CHIKV and ONNV and the HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load. Thus, PLWHIV in Madagascar are highly exposed to various arboviruses. Further studies are needed to explain some of our findings.

Tiratricol inhibits yellow fever virus replication through targeting viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase of NS5

Yellow fever virus (YFV) infection is a major public concern that threatens a large population in South America and Africa. No specific antiviral drugs are available for treating yellow fever. Here, we report that tiratricol (triiodothyroacetic acid, TRIAC), a clinically approved drug used to treat thyroid hormone resistance syndrome (THRS), is a potent YFV inhibitor both in host cells and in animal models.An in vitro study demonstrates that TRIAC remarkably suppresses viral RNA synthesis and protein expression in a dose-dependent manner in human hepatoma cell lines (Huh-7) with an EC50 value of 2.07 μM and a CC50 value of 385.77 μM respectively. The surface plasmon resonance assay and molecular docking analysis indicate that TRIAC hinders viral replication by binding to the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) domain of viral nonstructural protein NS5, probably through interacting with the active sites of RdRp.The inhibitory effect of TRIAC in vivo is also confirmed in 3-week old C57BL/6 mice challenged with YFV infection, from which the survival of the mice as well as lesions and infection in their tissues and serum issignificantly promoted following oral administration of TRIAC (0.2 mg/kg/day). Additionally, TRIAC shows a broad-spectrum antiviral activity against multiple flaviviruses such as TBEV, WNV,ZIKV, andJEV in vitro. Our data demonstrate that the TH analogue TRIAC is an effective anti-YFV compound and may act as a potential therapeutic candidate for the treatment of YFV infection if its clinical importance is determined in patients in future.

A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

BACKGROUND

Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used.

METHODS

We searched on-line databases for predictive risk mapping studies for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever with no geographical or date restrictions. We included studies that needed to parameterise or fit their model to real-world epidemiological data and make predictions to new spatial locations of some measure of population-level risk of viral transmission (e.g. incidence, occurrence, suitability, etc.).

RESULTS

We found a growing number of arbovirus risk mapping studies across all endemic regions and arboviral diseases, with a total of 176 papers published 2002-2022 with the largest increases shortly following major epidemics. Three dominant use cases emerged: (i) global maps to identify limits of transmission, estimate burden and assess impacts of future global change, (ii) regional models used to predict the spread of major epidemics between countries and (iii) national and sub-national models that use local datasets to better understand transmission dynamics to improve outbreak detection and response. Temperature and rainfall were the most popular choice of covariates (included in 50% and 40% of studies respectively) but variables such as human mobility are increasingly being included. Surprisingly, few studies (22%, 31/144) robustly tested combinations of covariates from different domains (e.g. climatic, sociodemographic, ecological, etc.) and only 49% of studies assessed predictive performance via out-of-sample validation procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

Here we show that approaches to map risk for different arboviruses have diversified in response to changing use cases, epidemiology and data availability. We identify key differences in mapping approaches between different arboviral diseases, discuss future research needs and outline specific recommendations for future arbovirus mapping.

Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics

Yellow Fever (YF), a mosquito-borne disease, requires ongoing surveillance and prevention due to its persistence and ability to cause major epidemics, including one that began in Brazil in 2016. Forecasting based on factors influencing YF risk can improve efficiency in prevention. This study aimed to produce weekly forecasts of YF occurrence and incidence in Brazil using weekly meteorological and ecohydrological conditions. Occurrence was forecast as the probability of observing any cases, and incidence was forecast to represent morbidity if YF occurs. We fit gamma hurdle models, selecting predictors from several meteorological and ecohydrological factors, based on forecast accuracy defined by receiver operator characteristic curves and mean absolute error. We fit separate models for data before and after the start of the 2016 outbreak, forecasting occurrence and incidence for all municipalities of Brazil weekly. Different predictor sets were found to produce most accurate forecasts in each time period, and forecast accuracy was high for both time periods. Temperature, precipitation, and previous YF burden were most influential predictors among models. Minimum, maximum, mean, and range of weekly temperature, precipitation, and humidity contributed to forecasts, with optimal lag times of 2, 6, and 7 weeks depending on time period. Results from this study show the use of environmental predictors in providing regular forecasts of YF burden and producing nationwide forecasts. Weekly forecasts, which can be produced using the forecast model developed in this study, are beneficial for informing immediate preparedness measures.

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA.1 genomes, we identified >6,000 introductions of the antigenically distinct VOC into England and analyzed their local transmission and dispersal history. We find that six of the eight largest English Omicron lineages were already transmitting when Omicron was first reported in southern Africa (22 November 2021). Multiple datasets show that importation of Omicron continued despite subsequent restrictions on travel from southern Africa as a result of export from well-connected secondary locations. Initiation and dispersal of Omicron transmission lineages in England was a two-stage process that can be explained by models of the country's human geography and hierarchical travel network. Our results enable a comparison of the processes that drive the invasion of Omicron and other VOCs across multiple spatial scales.

Arthropod-borne encephalitis: an overview for the clinician and emerging considerations

The rapid spread of arboviral infections in recent years has continually established arthropod-borne encephalitis to be a pressing global health concern. Causing a wide range of clinical presentations ranging from asymptomatic infection to fulminant neurological disease, the hallmark features of arboviral infection are important to clinically recognise. Arboviral infections may cause severe neurological presentations such as meningoencephalitis, epilepsy, acute flaccid paralysis and stroke. While the pathogenesis of arboviral infections is still being investigated, shared neuroanatomical pathways among these viruses may give insight into future therapeutic targets. The shifting infection transmission patterns and evolving distribution of arboviral vectors are heavily influenced by global climate change and human environmental disruption, therefore it is of utmost importance to consider this potential aetiology when assessing patients with encephalitic presentations.

Yellow fever disease severity and endothelial dysfunction are associated with elevated serum levels of viral NS1 protein and syndecan-1

Yellow fever virus (YFV) infections can cause severe disease manifestations, including hepatic injury, endothelial damage, coagulopathy, hemorrhage, systemic organ failure, and shock, and are associated with high mortality in humans. While nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) of the related dengue virus is implicated in contributing to vascular leak, little is known about the role of YFV NS1 in severe YF and mechanisms of vascular dysfunction in YFV infections. Here, using serum samples from qRT-PCR-confirmed YF patients with severe (n=39) or non-severe (n=18) disease in a well-defined hospital cohort in Brazil, plus samples from healthy uninfected controls (n=11), we investigated factors associated with disease severity. We developed a quantitative YFV NS1 capture ELISA and found significantly increased levels of NS1, as well as syndecan-1, a marker of vascular leak, in serum from severe YF as compared to non-severe YF or control groups. We also showed that hyperpermeability of endothelial cell monolayers treated with serum from severe YF patients was significantly higher compared to non-severe YF and control groups as measured by transendothelial electrical resistance (TEER). Further, we demonstrated that YFV NS1 induces shedding of syndecan-1 from the surface of human endothelial cells. Notably, YFV NS1 serum levels significantly correlated with syndecan-1 serum levels and TEER values. Syndecan-1 levels also significantly correlated with clinical laboratory parameters of disease severity, viral load, hospitalization, and death. In summary, this study points to a role for secreted NS1 in YF disease severity and provides evidence for endothelial dysfunction as a mechanism of YF pathogenesis in humans.

Arbovirus circulation, epidemiology and spatiotemporal distribution in Uganda

Background

Arboviruses are endemic in Uganda; however, little is known about their epidemiology, seasonality and spatiotemporal distribution. Our study sought to provide information on arbovirus outbreaks from acute clinical presentations.

Methods

Immunoglobulin M (IgM) and confirmatory Plaque Reduction Neutralisation Test (PRNT) results for arbovirus diagnosis of samples collected from patients attending sentinel sites from 2016-19 were analysed retrospectively. Demographic data were analysed with SaTScan and SPSS software to determine the epidemiology and spatiotemporal distribution of arboviruses.

Results

Arbovirus activity peaked consistently during March-May rainy seasons. Overall, arbovirus seroprevalence was 9.5%. Of 137 IgM positives, 52.6% were confirmed by PRNT, of which 73.6% cases were observed in central Uganda with Yellow Fever Virus had the highest prevalence (27.8%). The 5-14 age group were four times more likely to be infected with an arbovirus p=0.003, 4.1 (95% CI 1.3-12.3). Significant arboviral activity was observed among outdoor workers(p=0.05) . Spatiotemporal analysis indicated arboviral activity in 23 of the 85 districts analysed..

Interpretation

Our study shows that arbovirus activity peaks during the March-May rainy season and highlights the need for YFV mass vaccination to reduce the clinical burden of arboviruses transmitted within the region.

Humoral and T-cell-mediated responses to a pre-clinical Zika vaccine candidate that utilizes a unique insect-specific flavivirus platform

Vaccination is critical for the control and prevention of viral outbreaks, yet conventional vaccine platforms may involve trade-offs between immunogenicity and safety. Insect-specific viruses have emerged as a novel vaccine platform to overcome this challenge. Detailed studies of humoral and T-cell responses induced by new insect-specific flavivirus (ISFV)-based vaccine platforms are needed to better understand correlates of protection and improve vaccine efficacy. Previously, we used a novel ISFV called Aripo virus (ARPV) to create a Zika virus (ZIKV) vaccine candidate (designated ARPV/ZIKV). ARPV/ZIKV demonstrated exceptional safety and single-dose efficacy, completely protecting mice from a lethal ZIKV challenge. Here, we explore the development of immune responses induced by ARPV/ZIKV immunization and evaluate its correlates of protection. Passive transfer of ARPV/ZIKV-induced immune sera to naïve mice prior to challenge emphasized the importance of neutralizing antibodies as a correlate of protection. Depletion of T-cells in vaccinated mice and adoptive transfer of ARPV/ZIKV-primed T-cells to naïve mice prior to challenge indicated that ARPV/ZIKV-induced CD4 + and CD8 + T-cell responses contribute to the observed protection but may not be essential for protection during ZIKV challenge. However, vaccination of Rag1 KO, Tcra KO, and muMt - mice demonstrated the critical role for ARPV/ZIKV-induced T-cells in developing protective immune responses following vaccination. Overall, both humoral and T-cell-mediated responses induced by ISFV-based vaccines are important for comprehensive immunity, and ISFV platforms continue to be a promising method for future vaccine development.

Gaps in mobility data and implications for modelling epidemic spread: A scoping review and simulation study

Reliable estimates of human mobility are important for understanding the spatial spread of infectious diseases and the effective targeting of control measures. However, when modelling infectious disease dynamics, data on human mobility at an appropriate temporal or spatial resolution are not always available, leading to the common use of model-derived mobility proxies. In this study we reviewed the different data sources and mobility models that have been used to characterise human movement in Africa. We then conducted a simulation study to better understand the implications of using human mobility proxies when predicting the spatial spread and dynamics of infectious diseases. We found major gaps in the availability of empirical measures of human mobility in Africa, leading to mobility proxies being used in place of data. Empirical data on subnational mobility were only available for 17/54 countries, and in most instances, these data characterised long-term movement patterns, which were unsuitable for modelling the spread of pathogens with short generation times (time between infection of a case and their infector). Results from our simulation study demonstrated that using mobility proxies can have a substantial impact on the predicted epidemic dynamics, with complex and non-intuitive biases. In particular, the predicted times and order of epidemic invasion, and the time of epidemic peak in different locations can be underestimated or overestimated, depending on the types of proxies used and the country of interest. Our work underscores the need for regularly updated empirical measures of population movement within and between countries to aid the prevention and control of infectious disease outbreaks. At the same time, there is a need to establish an evidence base to help understand which types of mobility data are most appropriate for describing the spread of emerging infectious diseases in different settings.

Using spatial and population mobility models to inform outbreak response approaches in the Ebola affected area, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2020

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) 10th known Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak occurred between August 1, 2018 and June 25, 2020, and was the largest EVD outbreak in the country's history. During this outbreak, the DRC Ministry of Health initiated traveller health screening at points of control (POC, locations not on the border) and points of entry (POE) to minimize disease translocation via ground and air travel. We sought to develop a model-based approach that could be applied in future outbreaks to inform decisions for optimizing POC and POE placement, and allocation of resources more broadly, to mitigate the risk of disease translocation associated with ground-level population mobility. We applied a parameter-free mobility model, the radiation model, to estimate likelihood of ground travel between selected origin locations (including Beni, DRC) and surrounding population centres, based on population size and drive-time. We then performed a road network route analysis and included estimated population movement results to calculate the proportionate volume of travellers who would move along each road segment; this reflects the proportion of travellers that could be screened at a POC or POE. For Beni, the road segments estimated to have the highest proportion of travellers that could be screened were part of routes into Uganda and Rwanda. Conversely, road segments that were part of routes to other population centres within the DRC were estimated to have relatively lower proportions. We observed a posteriori that, in many instances, our results aligned with locations that were selected for actual POC or POE placement through more time-consuming methods. This study has demonstrated that mobility models and simple spatial techniques can help identify potential locations for health screening at newly placed POC or existing POE during public health emergencies based on expected movement patterns. Importantly, we have provided methods to estimate the proportionate volume of travellers that POC or POE screening measures would assess based on their location. This is critical information in outbreak situations when timely decisions must be made to implement public health interventions that reach the most individuals across a network.

Community Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices Regarding Mosquitoes and Mosquito-Borne Viral Diseases in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Mosquito-borne viral diseases (MBVDs) create a dramatic health situation worldwide. There is a need to improve the understanding of factors to be addressed in intervention programmes. This study explored community knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding MBVD in Kinshasa.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was carried out between January and April 2019. The socio-demographic and KAP data collected through a questionnaire were analysed using Epi Info 7.

RESULTS

The study included 1464 male and female respondents aged from 18 to 70 years old. Open garbage cans and outdoor water storage units were found in 61.2% and 33.4% of respondent residences, respectively. Polluted water bodies (80.3%) were the most mentioned as mosquito breeding places. Among 86.6% of the respondents that had heard about yellow fever, 12% knew that it is an MBVD. The majority of respondents (72.5%) were perceived to be at risk of contracting MBVD. Environment sanitation (58%) and insecticide use (25%) were among the measures implemented to control mosquitoes. The greater overall knowledge score and attitude were not associated with good practice.

CONCLUSION

The residents of Kinshasa had limited knowledge of MBVD. Raising awareness and educational sessions are essential in empowering the community regarding the correct attitudes and practices to effectively manage the risk posed by MBVD.

Risk assessment of urban yellow fever virus transmission in Kenya: is Aedes aegypti an efficient vector?

The absence of urban yellow fever epidemics in East Africa remains a mystery amidst the proliferation of Aedes aegypti in this region. To understand the transmission dynamics of the disease, we tested urban (Mombasa, Kisumu, and Nairobi) Aedes mosquito populations in Kenya for their susceptibility to an East African yellow fever virus (YFV) genotype. Overall, 22% (n = 805) of the Ae. aegypti that were orally challenged with an infectious dose of YFV had a midgut infection, with comparable rates for Mombasa and Kisumu (χ²= 0.35, df = 1, P = 0.55), but significantly lower rates for Nairobi (χ² ≥ 11.08, df = 1, P ≤ 0.0009). Variations in YFV susceptibility (midgut infection) among Ae. aegypti subspecies were not associated with discernable cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene haplotypes. Remarkably, no YFV dissemination or transmission was observed among the orally challenged Ae. aegypti populations. Moreover, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes that were intrathoracically inoculated with YFV failed to transmit the virus via capillary feeding. In contrast, dissemination (oral exposure) and transmission (intrathoracic inoculation) of YFV was observed among a few peri-domestic Ae. bromeliae mosquitoes (n = 129) that were assessed from these urban areas. Our study highlights an inefficient urban Ae. aegypti population, and the potential for Ae. bromeliae in sustaining an urban YFV transmission in Kenya. An assessment of urban Ae. aegypti susceptibility to other YFV genotypes, and vector potential of urban Ae. bromeliae populations in Kenya is recommended to guide cost-effective vaccination.

Pattern of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Associated with Human Exposure to Dengue Virus in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dengue is a worldwide public health concern. The current study assessed the extent of human exposure to the dengue virus in relation to the distribution pattern of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Kinshasa. Cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 2021 and 2022. The baseline entomological survey involved 19 municipalities using a grid cell sampling approach. All containers holding water were inspected for the presence of larvae in each grid. The collected larvae were kept in an insectary until the adult emergence for morphological identification. Four hundred febrile patients attending the hospital were screened for the presence of dengue antibodies (IgG, IgM) and NS1 antigen using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) Biosynex®. Residences of positive cases were geo-referenced. We evaluated 1850 grid cells, of which 19.5% were positive for Aedes larvae. The positive grid cells were identified in the Ndjili (44.0%), Mont Ngafula (32.0%) and Ngaliema (26.0%), and Limete (32.0%) municipalities. The Ae. aegypti (11.2%) predominated in the northwestern, and Ae. albopictus (9.1%) appeared in the high vegetation coverage areas. Of 61 (15.3%) participants exposed to dengue, 8.3% presented acute dengue. Young, (6-17 years), male, and Mont Amba district participants were most exposed to dengue. In conclusion, dengue occurrence in Kinshasa overlaps somewhat the geographical and ecological distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Both species are not homogenously distributed, likely due to environmental factors. These findings can assist the targeted control activities.

Evolving dynamics of Aedes-borne diseases in Africa: a cause for concern

Aedes-borne viruses, yellow fever (YF), dengue, Chikungunya and Zika are taking a huge toll on global health as Africa faces re-emergence with potential for massive human catastrophe. Transmission driven by diverse vectors in ecological settings that range from urban to rural and sylvatic habitats with human and nonhuman primate/reservoir activities across such habitats has facilitated virus movement and spillover to susceptible human populations. Approved vaccine exists for YF, although availability for routine and mass vaccination is often constrained. Integrating vector surveillance, understanding disease ecology with rationalised vaccination in high-risk areas (YF) remains important in disease prevention and control. We review trends in disease occurrence in Africa, hinting on gaps in disease detection and management and the prospects for prevention and/or control.

Occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks in a partially vaccinated population: An analysis of the effective reproduction number

Background

Yellow fever is endemic in Africa and the Americas, occurring in urban or sylvatic environments. The infection presents varying symptoms, with high case-fatality among severe cases. In 2016, Brazil had sylvatic yellow fever outbreaks with more than 11 thousand cases, predominantly affecting the country’s Southeast region. The state of Minas Gerais accounted for 30% of cases, even after the vaccine had been included in the immunization calendar for at least 30 years.

Methodology and principal findings

We applied parameters described in the literature from yellow fever disease into a compartmental model of vector-borne diseases, using namely generation time intervals, vital host and vector parameters, and force of infection, using macroregions as the spatial unit and epidemiological weeks as the time interval. The model permits obtaining the reproduction number, which we analyzed from reported cases of yellow fever from 2016 to 2018 in residents of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Minas Gerais recorded two outbreak periods, starting in EW 51/2016 and EW 51/2017. Of all the reported cases (3,304), 57% were men 30 to 59 years of age. Approximately 27% of cases (905) were confirmed, and 22% (202) of these individuals died. The estimated effective reproduction number varied from 2.7 (95% CI: 2.0–3.6) to 7.2 (95% CI: 4.4–10.9], found in the Oeste and Nordeste regions, respectively. Vaccination coverage in children under one year of age showed heterogeneity among the municipalities comprising the macroregions.

Conclusion

The outbreaks in multiple parts of the state and the estimated R_e values raise concern since the state population was partially vaccinated. Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage may have been associated with the occurrence of outbreaks in the first period, while the subsequent intense vaccination campaign may have determined lower R_e values in the second period.

Yellow fever attracts important research interest since it is an avoidable disease and is still recurrent in Brazil. Although the country has an important public policy that integrates production, distribution, and routine application of the yellow fever vaccine, the disease is still included on the list of endemic infectious diseases in some regions. Surprisingly, regions that were not previously part of risk areas for yellow fever were heavily affected by the outbreak from 2016 to 2018 in the country. Understanding the outbreak’s occurrence and intensity in the state of Minas Gerais based on the effective reproduction number, the focus of this article, is just part of the larger goal of defining with greater certainty the risk areas for yellow fever and proposing measures to control the spread of the disease.

Serological cross-reactivity among common flaviviruses

The Flavivirus genus is made up of viruses that are either mosquito-borne or tick-borne and other viruses transmitted by unknown vectors. Flaviviruses present a significant threat to global health and infect up to 400 million of people annually. As the climate continues to change throughout the world, these viruses have become prominent infections, with increasing number of infections being detected beyond tropical borders. These include dengue virus (DENV), West Nile virus (WNV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), and Zika virus (ZIKV). Several highly conserved epitopes of flaviviruses had been identified and reported to interact with antibodies, which lead to cross-reactivity results. The major interest of this review paper is mainly focused on the serological cross-reactivity between DENV serotypes, ZIKV, WNV, and JEV. Direct and molecular techniques are required in the diagnosis of Flavivirus-associated human disease. In this review, the serological assays such as neutralization tests, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, hemagglutination-inhibition test, Western blot test, and immunofluorescence test will be discussed. Serological assays that have been developed are able to detect different immunoglobulin isotypes (IgM, IgG, and IgA); however, it is challenging when interpreting the serological results due to the broad antigenic cross-reactivity of antibodies to these viruses. However, the neutralization tests are still considered as the gold standard to differentiate these flaviviruses.

Live-attenuated YF17D-vectored COVID-19 vaccine protects from lethal yellow fever virus infection in mouse and hamster models

BACKGROUND

The live-attenuated yellow fever vaccine YF17D holds great promise as alternative viral vector vaccine platform, showcased by our previously presented potent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine candidate YF-S0. Besides protection from SARS-CoV-2, YF-S0 also induced strong yellow fever virus (YFV)-specific immunity, suggestive for full dual activity. A vaccine concomitantly protecting from SARS-CoV-2 and YFV would be of great benefit for those living in YFV-endemic areas with limited access to current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. However, for broader applicability, pre-existing vector immunity should not impact the potency of such YF17D-vectored vaccines.

METHODS

The immunogenicity and efficacy of YF-S0 against YFV and SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of strong pre-existing YFV immunity were evaluated in mouse and hamster challenge models.

FINDINGS

Here, we show that a single dose of YF-S0 is sufficient to induce strong humoral and cellular immunity against YFV as well as SARS-CoV-2 in mice and hamsters; resulting in full protection from vigorous YFV challenge in either model; in mice against lethal intracranial YF17D challenge, and in hamsters against viscerotropic infection and liver disease following challenge with highly pathogenic hamster-adapted YFV-Asibi strain. Importantly, strong pre-existing immunity against the YF17D vector did not interfere with subsequent YF-S0 vaccination in mice or hamsters; nor with protection conferred against SARS-CoV-2 strain B1.1.7 (Alpha variant) infection in hamsters.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings warrant the development of YF-S0 as dual SARS-CoV-2 and YFV vaccine. Contrary to other viral vaccine platforms, use of YF17D does not suffer from pre-existing vector immunity.

FUNDING

Stated in the acknowledgments.

Yellow fever vaccination before and during the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the number of yellow fever vaccine doses administered before and during the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil.

METHODS

This is an ecological, time series study based on data from the National Immunization Program. Differences between the median number of yellow fever vaccine doses administered in Brazil and in its regions before (from April/2019 to March/2020) and after (from April/2020 to March/2021) the implementation of social distancing measures in the country were assessed via the Mann-Whitney test. Prais-Winsten regression models were used for time series analyses.

RESULTS

We found a reduction in the median number of yellow fever vaccine doses administered in Brazil and in its regions: North (-34.71%), Midwest (-21.72%), South (-63.50%), and Southeast (-34.42%) (p < 0.05). Series showed stationary behavior in Brazil and in its five regions during the covid-19 pandemic (p > 0.05). Brazilian states also showed stationary trends, except for two states which recorded an increasing trend in the number of administered yellow fever vaccine doses, namely: Alagoas State (before: β = 64, p = 0.081; after: β = 897, p = 0.039), which became a yellow fever vaccine recommendation zone, and Roraima State (before: β = 68, p = 0.724; after: β = 150, p = 0.000), which intensified yellow fever vaccinations due to a yellow fever case confirmation in a Venezuelan State in 2020.

CONCLUSION

The reduced number of yellow fever vaccine doses administered during the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil may favor the reemergence of urban yellow fever cases in the country.

Availability of the Yellow Fever Vaccine in Primary Health Care Services in Brazil

Objectives

To analyze the availability of the Yellow Fever (YF) vaccine at Primary Health Care (PHC) services located in areas with vaccine recommendation in Brazil between two different periods.

Methods

Secondary data from the Program for Improving Access and Quality in PHC, with 13,666 services in 2013-14, and 19,125 in 2017-18, were used. A structured questionnaire was used for the data collection. Pearson’s chi-square and thematic cartographic maps were used to analyze the frequency of the YF vaccine, and Poisson regression with robust variances was used to analyze the associated factors.

Results

The overall frequency of PHC facilities with YF vaccine always available increased from 87.0% (CI 95%; 86.4-87.5) in 2013-14 to 89.7% (CI 95%; 89.2-90.1) in 2017-18. Facilities located in the South, Southeast, Midwest and Northern regions and in non-state capitals, as well as centers that had adequate facilities for vaccination actions, as well as an adey -50quate cold chain network, showed a greater prevalence of YF vaccine always available.

Conclusion

The frequency of a steady supply of YF vaccine available at PHC facilities, located in Areas with Routine Vaccination Recommendations, increased between 2013-14 and 2017-18. Geographical and structural characteristics related to vaccine actions at PHC facilities influenced access. The effective supply chain networks for the YF vaccine, together with adequate services at PHC facilities are essential to ensuring that the YF vaccine is always available.

Yellow fever surveillance suggests zoonotic and anthroponotic emergent potential

Yellow fever is transmitted by mosquitoes among human and non-human primates. In the last decades, infections are occurring in areas that had been free from yellow fever for decades, probably as a consequence of the rapid spread of mosquito vectors, and of the virus evolutionary dynamic in which non-human primates are involved. This research is a pathogeographic assessment of where enzootic cycles, based on primate assemblages, could be amplifying the risk of yellow fever infections, in the context of spatial changes shown by the disease since the late 20^th century. In South America, the most relevant spread of disease cases affects parts of the Amazon basin and a wide area of southern Brazil, where forest fragmentation could be activating enzootic cycles next to urban areas. In Africa, yellow fever transmission is apparently spreading from the west of the continent, and primates could be contributing to this in savannas around rainforests. Our results are useful for identifying new areas that should be prioritised for vaccination, and suggest the need of deep yellow fever surveillance in primates of South America and Africa.

Models based on primates and disease vectors indicate a risk of zoonotic and anthroponotic yellow fever expansion in South America and Africa.

Molecular and genomic investigation of an urban outbreak of dengue virus serotype 2 in Angola, 2017-2019

BACKGROUND

The transmission patterns and genetic diversity of dengue virus (DENV) circulating in Africa remain poorly understood. Circulation of the DENV serotype 1 (DENV1) in Angola was detected in 2013, while DENV serotype 2 (DENV2) was detected in 2018. Here, we report results from molecular and genomic investigations conducted at the Ministry of Health national reference laboratory (INIS) in Angola on suspected dengue cases detected between January 2017 and February 2019.

METHODS

A total of 401 serum samples from dengue suspected cases were collected in 13 of the 18 provinces in Angola. Of those, 351 samples had complete data for demographic and epidemiological analysis, including age, gender, province, type of residence, clinical symptoms, as well as dates of onset of symptoms and sample collection. RNA was extracted from residual samples and tested for DENV-RNA using two distinct real time RT-PCR protocols. On-site whole genome nanopore sequencing was performed on RT-PCR+ samples. Bayesian coalescent models were used to estimate date and origin of outbreak emergence, as well as population growth rates.

RESULTS

Molecular screening showed that 66 out of 351 (19%) suspected cases were DENV-RNA positive across 5 provinces in Angola. DENV RT-PCR+ cases were detected more frequently in urban sites compared to rural sites. Of the DENV RT-PCR+ cases most were collected within 6 days of symptom onset. 93% of infections were confirmed by serotype-specific RT-PCR as DENV2 and 1 case (1.4%) was confirmed as DENV1. Six CHIKV RT-PCR+ cases were also detected during the study period, including 1 co-infection of CHIKV with DENV1. Most cases (87%) were detected in Luanda during the rainy season between April and October. Symptoms associated with severe dengue were observed in 11 patients, including 2 with a fatal outcome. On-site nanopore genome sequencing followed by genetic analysis revealed an introduction of DENV2 Cosmopolitan genotype (also known as DENV2-II genotype) possibly from India in or around October 2015, at least 1 year before its detection in the country. Coalescent models suggest relatively moderately rapid epidemic growth rates and doubling times, and a moderate expansion of DENV2 in Angola during the studied period.

CONCLUSION

This study describes genomic, epidemiological and demographic characteristic of predominately urban transmission of DENV2 in Angola. We also find co-circulation of DENV2 with DENV1 and CHIKV and report several RT-PCR confirmed severe dengue cases in the country. Increasing dengue awareness in healthcare professional, expanding the monitorization of arboviral epidemics across the country, identifying most common mosquito breeding sites in urban settings, implementing innovative vector control interventions and dengue vaccination campaigns could help to reduce vector presence and DENV transmission in Angola.

Sustained circulation of yellow fever virus in Cameroon: an analysis of laboratory surveillance data, 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

The re-emergence of yellow fever poses a serious public health risk to unimmunized communities in the tropical regions of Africa and South America and unvaccinated travelers visiting these regions. This risk is further accentuated by the likely spread of the virus to areas with potential for yellow fever transmission such as in Asia, Europe, and North America. To mitigate this risk, surveillance of yellow fever is pivotal. We performed an analysis of laboratory-based surveillance of yellow fever suspected cases in Cameroon during 2010-2020 to characterize the epidemiology of yellow fever cases and define health districts at high risk.

METHOD

We reviewed IgM capture ELISA and plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) test results of all suspected yellow fever patients analyzed at Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, the national yellow fever testing laboratory, during 2010-2020.

RESULTS

Of the 20,261 yellow fever suspected patient's samples that were tested, yellow fever IgM antibodies were detected in 360 patients representing an annual average of 33 cases/year. A major increase in YF IgM positive cases was observed in 2015 and in 2016 followed by a decrease in cases to below pre-2015 levels. The majority of the 2015 cases occurred during the latter part of the year while those in 2016, occurred between February and May. This trend may be due to an increase in transmission that began in late 2015 and continued to early 2016 or due to two separate transmission events. In 2016, where the highest number of cases were detected, 60 health districts in the 10 regions of Cameroon were affected with the Littoral, Northwest and, Far North regions being the most affected. After 2016, the number of detected yellow fever IgM positive cases dropped.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that yellow fever transmission continues to persist and seems to be occurring all over Cameroon with all 10 regions under surveillance reporting a case. Preventive measures such as mass vaccination campaigns and routine childhood immunizations are urgently needed to increase population immunity. The diagnostic limitations in our analysis highlight the need to strengthen laboratory capacity and improve case investigations.

Zika M—A Potential Viroporin: Mutational Study and Drug Repurposing

Genus Flavivirus contains several important human pathogens. Among these, the Zika virus is an emerging etiological agent that merits concern. One of its structural proteins, prM, plays an essential role in viral maturation and assembly, making it an attractive drug and vaccine development target. Herein, we have characterized ZikV-M as a potential viroporin candidate using three different bacteria-based assays. These assays were subsequently employed to screen a library of repurposed drugs from which ten compounds were identified as ZikV-M blockers. Mutational analyses of conserved amino acids in the transmembrane domain of other flaviviruses, including West Nile and Dengue virus, were performed to study their role in ion channel activity. In conclusion, our data show that ZikV-M is a potential ion channel that can be used as a drug target for high throughput screening and drug repurposing.

Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality

When vaccinating a large population in response to an invading pathogen, it is often necessary to prioritize some individuals to be vaccinated first. One way to do this is to choose individuals to vaccinate based on their location. Methods for this prioritization include strategies that target those regions most at risk of importing the pathogen, and strategies that target regions with high centrality on the travel network. We use a simple infectious disease epidemic model to compare a risk-targeting strategy to two different centrality-targeting strategies based on betweenness centrality and random walk percolation centrality, respectively. We find that the relative effectiveness of these strategies in reducing the total number of infections varies with the basic reproduction number of the pathogen, travel rates, structure of the travel network and vaccine availability. We conclude that when a pathogen has high spreading capacity, or when vaccine availability is limited, centrality-targeting strategies should be considered as an alternative to the more commonly used risk-targeting strategies.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of BG-Sentinel and CDC light traps in assessing the abundance, richness, and community composition of mosquitoes in rural and natural areas

BACKGROUND

Vector-borne diseases are a major burden to public health. Controlling mosquitoes is considered the most effective way to prevent vector-borne disease transmission. Mosquito surveillance is a core component of integrated vector management, as surveillance programs are often the cornerstone for the development of mosquito control operations. Two traps are the most commonly used for the surveillance of adult mosquitoes: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention miniature light trap (CDC light trap) and BG-Sentinel trap (BioGents, Regensburg, Germany). However, despite the importance of the BG-Sentinel trap in surveillance programs in the United States, especially in the Southern states, its effectiveness in consistently and reliably collecting mosquitoes in rural and natural areas is still unknown. We hypothesized that BG-Sentinel and CDC light traps would be more attractive to specific mosquito species present in rural and natural areas. Therefore, our objective was to compare the relative abundance, species richness, and community composition of mosquitoes collected in natural and rural areas by BG-Sentinel and CDC light traps.

METHODS

Mosquitoes were collected from October 2020 to March 2021 using BG-Sentinel and CDC light traps baited with dry ice, totaling 105 trap-nights.

RESULTS

The BG-Sentinel traps collected 195,115 mosquitoes comprising 23 species from eight genera, and the CDC light traps collected 188,594 mosquitoes comprising 23 species from eight genera. The results from the permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) and generalized estimating equation model for repeated measures indicate the BG-Sentinel and CDC light traps had similar sampling power.

CONCLUSION

Even though BG-Sentinel traps had a slightly better performance, the difference was not statistically significant indicating that both traps are suitable to be used in mosquito surveillance in rural and natural areas.

Predicting Infectious Diseases: A Bibliometric Review on Africa

Africa has a long history of novel and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This reality has attracted the attention of researchers interested in the general research theme of predicting infectious diseases. However, a knowledge mapping analysis of literature to reveal the research trends, gaps, and hotspots in predicting Africa’s infectious diseases using bibliometric tools has not been conducted. A bibliometric analysis of 247 published papers on predicting infectious diseases in Africa, published in the Web of Science core collection databases, is presented in this study. The results indicate that the severe outbreaks of infectious diseases in Africa have increased scientific publications during the past decade. The results also reveal that African researchers are highly underrepresented in these publications and that the United States of America (USA) is the most productive and collaborative country. The relevant hotspots in this research field include malaria, models, classification, associations, COVID-19, and cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, weather-based prediction using meteorological factors is an emerging theme, and very few studies have used the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) technologies. Therefore, there is a need to explore 4IR predicting tools such as machine learning and consider integrated approaches that are pivotal to developing robust prediction systems for infectious diseases, especially in Africa. This review paper provides a useful resource for researchers, practitioners, and research funding agencies interested in the research theme—the prediction of infectious diseases in Africa—by capturing the current research hotspots and trends.

Flaviviruses: Innate Immunity, Inflammasome Activation, Inflammatory Cell Death, and Cytokines

The innate immune system is the host’s first line of defense against the invasion of pathogens including flavivirus. The programmed cell death controlled by genes plays an irreplaceable role in resisting pathogen invasion and preventing pathogen infection. However, the inflammatory cell death, which can trigger the overflow of a large number of pro-inflammatory cytokines and cell contents, will initiate a severe inflammatory response. In this review, we summarized the current understanding of the innate immune response, inflammatory cell death pathway and cytokine secretion regulation during Dengue virus, West Nile virus, Zika virus, Japanese encephalitis virus and other flavivirus infections. We also discussed the impact of these flavivirus and viral proteins on these biological processes. This not only provides a scientific basis for elucidating the pathogenesis of flavivirus, but also lays the foundation for the development of effective antiviral therapies.

Molecular epidemiology of yellow fever virus in Africa: A perspective of the phylogeographic split between East/Central African and West African lineages

Yellow fever (YF) is a major public-health problem in Africa. Yellow fever virus (YFV), the etiological agent responsible for the disease, exhibits clear delineation of phylogeography between East/Central Africa and West Africa. In order to decipher the genetic nature of the YFV epidemic between these areas, we performed a genome-wide study on its African isolates using the McDonald-Kreitman (MK) test in combination with the type II functional divergence analysis. The results showed that adaptive genetic diversifications have occurred on viral nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) and NS5, which are essential for viral genome replication and immune antagonism, with the East/Central African-West African epidemic split. On both proteins, a number of amino acid replacements have been favored by functional divergence. These findings could help to bridge the gap between the phylogeographic delineation and niche adaptation underlying the YFV-epidemic across Africa and shed light on viral determinants of this process.

The spread of cholera in western Democratic Republic of the Congo is not unidirectional from East-West: a spatiotemporal analysis, 1973-2018

Background

Cholera outbreaks in western Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are thought to be primarily the result of westward spread of cases from the Great Lakes Region. However, other patterns of spatial spread in this part of the country should not be excluded. The aim of this study was to explore alternative routes of spatial spread in western DRC.

Methods

A literature review was conducted to reconstruct major outbreak expansions of cholera in western DRC since its introduction in 1973. We also collected data on cholera cases reported at the health zone (HZ) scale by the national surveillance system during 2000–2018. Based on data from routine disease surveillance, we identified two subperiods (week 45, 2012–week 42, 2013 and week 40, 2017–week 52, 2018) for which the retrospective space–time permutation scan statistic was implemented to detect spatiotemporal clusters of cholera cases and then to infer the spread patterns in western DRC other than that described in the literature.

Results

Beyond westward and cross-border spread in the West Congo Basin from the Great Lakes Region, other dynamics of cholera epidemic propagation were observed from neighboring countries, such as Angola, to non-endemic provinces of southwestern DRC. Space–time clustering analyses sequentially detected clusters of cholera cases from southwestern DRC to the northern provinces, demonstrating a downstream-to-upstream spread along the Congo River.

Conclusions

The spread of cholera in western DRC is not one-sided. There are other patterns of spatial spread, including a propagation from downstream to upstream areas along the Congo River, to be considered as preferential trajectories of cholera in western DRC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06986-9.

Anthropogenic changes and associated impacts on vector-borne diseases

Urbanization impacts the community composition, abundance, and richness of mosquitoes. As urbanization processes increase globally, it is important to better understand the biodiversity loss caused by anthropogenic changes and associated impacts on vector-borne diseases. Mosquito surveillance and control are key for reducing the risk of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.

The incidence and mortality of yellow fever in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the occurrence of yellow fever epidemics is critical for targeted interventions and control efforts to reduce the burden of disease. We assessed data on the yellow fever incidence and mortality rates in Africa.

METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Library, SCOPUS, MEDLINE, CINAHL, PubMed, Embase, Africa-wide and Web of science databases from 1 January 1975 to 30th October 2020. Two authors extracted data from included studies independently and conducted a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of 840 studies identified, 12 studies were deemed eligible for inclusion. The incidence of yellow fever per 100,000 population ranged from < 1 case in Nigeria, < 3 cases in Uganda, 13 cases in Democratic Republic of the Congo, 27 cases in Kenya, 40 cases in Ethiopia, 46 cases in Gambia, 1267 cases in Senegal, and 10,350 cases in Ghana. Case fatality rate associated with yellow fever outbreaks ranged from 10% in Ghana to 86% in Nigeria. The mortality rate ranged from 0.1/100,000 in Nigeria to 2200/100,000 in Ghana.

CONCLUSION

The yellow fever incidence rate is quite constant; in contrast, the fatality rates vary widely across African countries over the study period. Standardized demographic health surveys and surveillance as well as accurate diagnostic measures are essential for early recognition, treatment and control.

Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions

Estimates of disease burden are important for setting public health priorities. These estimates involve numerous modeling assumptions, whose uncertainties are not always well described. We developed a framework for estimating the burden of yellow fever in Africa and evaluated its sensitivity to modeling assumptions that are often overlooked. We found that alternative interpretations of serological data resulted in a nearly 20-fold difference in burden estimates (range of central estimates, 8.4 × 10⁴ to 1.5 × 10⁶ deaths in 2021–2030). Uncertainty about the vaccination status of serological study participants was the primary driver of this uncertainty. Even so, statistical uncertainty was even greater than uncertainty due to modeling assumptions, accounting for a total of 87% of variance in burden estimates. Combined with estimates that most infections go unreported (range of 95% credible intervals, 99.65 to 99.99%), our results suggest that yellow fever’s burden will remain highly uncertain without major improvements in surveillance.

Epidemiology and Laboratory Diagnostics of Dengue, Yellow Fever, Zika, and Chikungunya Virus Infections in Africa

Arbovirus infections are widespread, and their disease burden has increased in the past decade. In Africa, arbovirus infections and fever with unknown etiology are common. Due to the lack of well-established epidemiologic surveillance systems and accurate differential diagnosis in most African countries, little is known about the prevalence of human arbovirus infections in Africa. The aim of this review is to summarize the available epidemiological data and diagnostic laboratory tools of infections with dengue, yellow fever, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, all transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Studies indicate that these arboviral infections are endemic in most of Africa. Surveillance of the incidence and prevalence of the infections would enable medical doctors to improve the diagnostic accuracy in patients with typical symptoms. If possible, arboviral diagnostic tests should be added to the routine healthcare systems. Healthcare providers should be informed about the prevalent arboviral diseases to identify possible cases.

Epidemiology of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi in changing landscapes

Within the past two decades, incidence of human cases of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has increased markedly. P. knowlesi is now the most common cause of human malaria in Malaysia and threatens to undermine malaria control programmes across Southeast Asia. The emergence of zoonotic malaria corresponds to a period of rapid deforestation within this region. These environmental changes impact the distribution and behaviour of the simian hosts, mosquito vector species and human populations, creating new opportunities for P. knowlesi transmission. Here, we review how landscape changes can drive zoonotic disease emergence, examine the extent and causes of these changes across Southeast and identify how these mechanisms may be impacting P. knowlesi dynamics. We review the current spatial epidemiology of reported P. knowlesi infections in people and assess how these demographic and environmental changes may lead to changes in transmission patterns. Finally, we identify opportunities to improve P. knowlesi surveillance and develop targeted ecological interventions within these landscapes.

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

Recurrence and Driving Factors of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Central China

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important vector-borne zoonosis caused by Leishmania spp. that has been spreading in China. It has been posing a significant risk to public health in central China due to its recurrence in recent decades. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns and the driving factors of VL in central China remain unclear at present. The purpose of this study was to analyse spatiotemporal distribution, explore driving factors, and provide novel insight into prevention and control countermeasures of the VL spreading in central China. Based on data of human VL cases from 2006 to 2019 obtained from the Chinese Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we depicted the map showing the spatiotemporal distribution of VL in central China. We further explored the driving factors contributing to the spread of VL through the general additive model (GAM) by combining maps of environmental, meteorological, and socioeconomic correlates. Most VL cases were reported in Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, the number of which has been increasing every year in the last 14 years, from 3 new cases in 2006 to 101 new cases in 2019. The results of GAM revealed that environmental (i.e., changes in grasslands/forests), meteorological (i.e., temperature and relative humidity), and socioeconomic (i.e., population density) factors are significantly associated with the prevalence of VL in central China. Our results provide a better understanding regarding the current situation and the driving factors of VL in central China, assisting in developing the disease prevention and control strategies implemented by public health authorities.

Rational design of West Nile virus vaccine through large replacement of 3' UTR with internal poly(A)

The genus Flavivirus comprises numerous emerging and re-emerging arboviruses causing human illness. Vaccines are the best approach to prevent flavivirus diseases. But pathogen diversities are always one of the major hindrances for timely development of new vaccines when confronting unpredicted flavivirus outbreaks. We used West Nile virus (WNV) as a model to develop a new live-attenuated vaccine (LAV), WNV-poly(A), by replacing 5' portion (corresponding to SL and DB domains in WNV) of 3'-UTR with internal poly(A) tract. WNV-poly(A) not only propagated efficiently in Vero cells, but also was highly attenuated in mouse model. A single-dose vaccination elicited robust and long-lasting immune responses, conferring full protection against WNV challenge. Such "poly(A)" vaccine strategy may be promising for wide application in the development of flavivirus LAVs because of its general target regions in flaviviruses.

Using big data for evaluating development outcomes: A systematic map

BACKGROUND

Policy makers need access to reliable data to monitor and evaluate the progress of development outcomes and targets such as sustainable development outcomes (SDGs). However, significant data and evidence gaps remain. Lack of resources, limited capacity within governments and logistical difficulties in collecting data are some of the reasons for the data gaps. Big data-that is digitally generated, passively produced and automatically collected-offers a great potential for answering some of the data needs. Satellite and sensors, mobile phone call detail records, online transactions and search data, and social media are some of the examples of big data. Integrating big data with the traditional household surveys and administrative data can complement data availability, quality, granularity, accuracy and frequency, and help measure development outcomes temporally and spatially in a number of new ways.The study maps different sources of big data onto development outcomes (based on SDGs) to identify current evidence base, use and the gaps. The map provides a visual overview of existing and ongoing studies. This study also discusses the risks, biases and ethical challenges in using big data for measuring and evaluating development outcomes. The study is a valuable resource for evaluators, researchers, funders, policymakers and practitioners in their effort to contributing to evidence informed policy making and in achieving the SDGs.

OBJECTIVES

Identify and appraise rigorous impact evaluations (IEs), systematic reviews and the studies that have innovatively used big data to measure any development outcomes with special reference to difficult contexts.

SEARCH METHODS

A number of general and specialised data bases and reporsitories of organisations were searched using keywords related to big data by an information specialist.

SELECTION CRITERIA

The studies were selected on basis of whether they used big data sources to measure or evaluate development outcomes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data collection was conducted using a data extraction tool and all extracted data was entered into excel and then analysed using Stata. The data analysis involved looking at trends and descriptive statistics only.

MAIN RESULTS

The search yielded over 17,000 records, which we then screened down to 437 studies which became the foundation of our systematic map. We found that overall, there is a sizable and rapidly growing number of measurement studies using big data but a much smaller number of IEs. We also see that the bulk of the big data sources are machine-generated (mostly satellites) represented in the light blue. We find that satellite data was used in over 70% of the measurement studies and in over 80% of the IEs.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This map gives us a sense that there is a lot of work being done to develop appropriate measures using big data which could subsequently be used in IEs. Information on costs, ethics, transparency is lacking in the studies and more work is needed in this area to understand the efficacies related to the use of big data. There are a number of outcomes which are not being studied using big data, either due to the lack to applicability such as education or due to lack of awareness about the new methods and data sources. The map points to a number of gaps as well as opportunities where future researchers can conduct research.

Re-emergence of yellow fever in the neotropics - quo vadis?

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is the etiological agent of yellow fever (YF), an acute hemorrhagic vector-borne disease with a significant impact on public health, is endemic across tropical regions in Africa and South America. The virus is maintained in two ecologically and evolutionary distinct transmission cycles: an enzootic, sylvatic cycle, where the virus circulates between arboreal Aedes species mosquitoes and non-human primates, and a human or urban cycle, between humans and anthropophilic Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. While the urban transmission cycle has been eradicated by a highly efficacious licensed vaccine, the enzootic transmission cycle is not amenable to control interventions, leading to recurrent epizootics and spillover outbreaks into human populations. The nature of YF transmission dynamics is multifactorial and encompasses a complex system of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors rendering predictions of emergence highly speculative. The recent outbreaks in Africa and Brazil clearly remind us of the significant impact YF emergence events pose on human and animal health. The magnitude of the Brazilian outbreak and spillover in densely populated areas outside the recommended vaccination coverage areas raised the specter of human — to — human transmission and re-establishment of enzootic cycles outside the Amazon basin. Herein, we review the factors that influence the re-emergence potential of YFV in the neotropics and offer insights for a constellation of coordinated approaches to better predict and control future YF emergence events.

African Swine Fever in Smallholder Sardinian Farms: Last 10 Years of Network Transmission Reconstruction and Analysis

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of suids that frequently leads to death. There are neither licensed vaccines nor treatments available, and even though humans are not susceptible to the disease, the serious socio-economic consequences associated with ASF have made it one of the most serious animal diseases of the last century. In this context, prevention and early detection play a key role in controlling the disease and avoiding losses in the pig value chain. Target biosecurity measures are a strong strategy against ASF virus (ASFV) incursions in farms nowadays, but to be efficient, these measures must be well-defined and easy to implement, both in commercial holdings and in the backyard sector. Furthermore, the backyard sector is of great importance in low-income settings, mainly for social and cultural practices that are highly specific to certain areas and communities. These contexts need to be addressed when authorities decide upon the provisions that should be applied in the case of infection or decide to combine them with strict preventive measures to mitigate the risk of virus spread. The need for a deeper understanding of the smallholder context is essential to prevent ASFV incursion and spread. Precise indications for pig breeding and risk estimation for ASFV introduction, spread and maintenance, taking into account the fact that these recommendations would be inapplicable in some contexts, are the keys for efficient target control measures. The aim of this work is to describe the 305 outbreaks that occurred in domestic pigs in Sardinia during the last epidemic season (2010-2018) in depth, providing essential features associated with intensive and backyard farms where the outbreaks occurred. In addition, the study estimates the average of secondary cases by kernel transmission network. Considering the current absence of ASF outbreaks in domestic pig farms in Sardinia since 2018, this work is a valid tool to specifically estimate the risk associated with different farm types and update our knowledge in this area.

Africa and the Nexus of poverty, malnutrition and diseases

This review examines the nexus of poverty, malnutrition and diseases in Africa, the challenges, implications and their mitigation. The paper takes a critical look at available literatures on the primary causes, modes, implications and solutions to the problems of poverty, malnutrition and diseases in Africa continent. Poverty and malnutrition are outcomes of uncontrolled rapid population growth, inefficient agricultural and industrial practices, high debt profile of many African countries due to poor governance and corruption, diseases such as AIDS epidemic, malaria, Ebola virus and COVID-19 pandemic, poor and inadequate health infrastructure and armed conflicts. African poverty scenario entails non-availability of basic human needs which makes many Africans to be very poor. Despite abundance of natural resources, the gross domestic product per capita of many African countries is among the lowest of list of nations of the world. According United Nation in 2009, 22 of 24 nations among the "Low Human Development" nations of the world on the UN's Human Development Index were found in sub-Saharan Africa. Out of the 50 countries on the United Nation list of least developed countries, 34 of them were in Africa. According to FAO data over 200 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were undernourished in 2014-2016. The prevalence of undernourishment in sub-Saharan Africa rose from 181 million in 2010 to 222 million in 2016. In 2016, Africa had the highest prevalence of undernourishment in the world and estimated to be 20% of the population. While this was alarming in Eastern Africa where one-third of the population is suspected to be undernourished. In a similar data, World Bank also found that sub-Saharan Africa Poverty and Equity Data was 47% with over 500 million people in abject poverty in 2012. Poverty is the major cause of hunger and malnutrition in Africa while hunger and malnutrition escalated the problem of diseases in African continent. Poverty has continued to torment Africa as a result of poor and harmful economic policies, conflict and war, environmental factors like drought and climate change and population growth, poor leadership and greed. With the advent of COVID-19, the problem of poverty, malnutrition and diseases has been escalated and in many African countries people find it difficult to make ends meet.

Technical viability of the YF MAC-HD ELISA kit for use in yellow fever-endemic regions

Yellow fever (YF), an arboviral disease, affects an estimated 200,000 people and causes 30,000 deaths per year and recently has caused major epidemics in Africa and South America. Timely and accurate diagnosis of YF is critical for managing outbreaks and implementing vaccination campaigns. A YF immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody-capture (MAC) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit, the YF MAC-HD, was successfully introduced starting in 2018 to laboratories in Africa and South America. The YF MAC-HD kit can be performed in 3.5 hours, test up to 24 samples, and includes all reagents necessary to perform the test, except for water used to dilute wash buffer. In 2018 and 2019, a total of 56 laboratory personnel from 39 countries in Africa and South America were trained to use the kit during workshops, followed by take-home YF IgM proficiency testing (PT) exercises. Participants received either a 10- or 20-sample YF PT panel and performed testing using the YF MAC-HD kit. All countries obtained 90% or higher correct results. These results verified the technical viability and transferability of YF MAC-HD kit use for laboratories in YF-endemic countries.

Estimation of the Actual Incidence of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Emergent Hotspots: The Example of Hokkaido, Japan during February-March 2020

Following the first report of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sapporo city, Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, on 14 February 2020, a surge of cases was observed in Hokkaido during February and March. As of 6 March, 90 cases were diagnosed in Hokkaido. Unfortunately, many infected persons may not have been recognized due to having mild or no symptoms during the initial months of the outbreak. We therefore aimed to predict the actual number of COVID-19 cases in (i) Hokkaido Prefecture and (ii) Sapporo city using data on cases diagnosed outside these areas. Two statistical frameworks involving a balance equation and an extrapolated linear regression model with a negative binomial link were used for deriving both estimates, respectively. The estimated cumulative incidence in Hokkaido as of 27 February was 2,297 cases (95% confidence interval (CI): 382-7091) based on data on travelers outbound from Hokkaido. The cumulative incidence in Sapporo city as of 28 February was estimated at 2233 cases (95% CI: 0-4893) based on the count of confirmed cases within Hokkaido. Both approaches resulted in similar estimates, indicating a higher incidence of infections in Hokkaido than were detected by the surveillance system. This quantification of the gap between detected and estimated cases helped to inform the public health response at the beginning of the pandemic and provided insight into the possible scope of undetected transmission for future assessments.

Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia

Twenty-six million people are living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa; epidemics are widely dispersed, due to high levels of mobility. However, global elimination strategies do not consider mobility. We use Call Detail Records from 9 billion calls/texts to model mobility in Namibia; we quantify the epidemic-level impact by using a mathematical framework based on spatial networks. We find complex networks of risk flows dispersed risk countrywide: increasing the risk of acquiring HIV in some areas, decreasing it in others. Overall, 40% of risk was mobility-driven. Networks contained multiple risk hubs. All constituencies (administrative units) imported and exported risk, to varying degrees. A few exported very high levels of risk: their residents infected many residents of other constituencies. Notably, prevalence in the constituency exporting the most risk was below average. Large-scale networks of mobility-driven risk flows underlie generalized HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. In order to eliminate HIV, it is likely to become increasingly important to implement innovative control strategies that focus on disrupting risk flows.