At-risk studies and clinical antecedents of psychosis, bipolar disorder and depression: a scoping review in the context of clinical staging

Youth Perspectives on 'Highly Personalised and Measurement-Based Care': Qualitative Co-Design of Education Materials

OBJECTIVES

Despite high levels of mental ill-health amongst young people (aged 15-30), this group demonstrates low help-seeking and high drop-out from mental health services (MHS). Whilst shared decision-making can assist people in receiving appropriate and effective health care, young people frequently report that they do not feel involved in treatment decisions. The current study focused on co-design of a clinical education and participant information programme for the Brain and Mind Centre Youth Model of Care. This model, which articulates a youth-focused form of highly personalised and measurement-based care, is designed to promote shared decision-making between young people and clinical service providers.

METHODS

We conducted workshops with 24 young people (16-31; MAge = 21.5) who had accessed mental health services. Participants were asked what advice they would give to young people entering services, before giving advice on existing materials. Workshops were conducted and transcripts were coded using thematic analysis by two lived experience researchers and a clinical researcher.

RESULTS

Young people found it empowering to be educated on transdiagnostic models of mental illness, namely clinical staging, which gives them a better understanding of why certain treatments may be inappropriate and ineffective, and thus reduce self-blame. Similarly, young people had limited knowledge of links between mental health and other life domains and found it helpful to be educated on multidisciplinary treatment options. Measurement-based care was seen as an important method of improving shared decision-making between young people and health professionals; however, to facilitate shared decision-making, young people also wanted better information on their rights in care and more support to share their expertise in their own needs, values and treatment preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings will inform the delivery of the further development and implementation of a youth-specific clinical education and participant information programme for the BMC Youth Model.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Workshops were facilitated by researchers with lived expertise in mental ill-health (A.H. and/or C.G.) and a clinical researcher (who has expertise as an academic and a clinical psychologist). A.H. and C.G. were also involved in conceptualisation, analysis, interpretation, review and editing of this paper.

Factors associated with chronic depressive symptoms across adolescence and young adulthood: a UK birth cohort study

AIMS

Identifying children and/or adolescents who are at highest risk for developing chronic depression is of utmost importance, so that we can develop more effective and targeted interventions to attenuate the risk trajectory of depression. To address this, the objective of this study was to identify young people with persistent depressive symptoms across adolescence and young adulthood and examine the prospective associations between factors and persistent depressive symptoms in young people.

METHODS

We used data from 6711 participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Depressive symptoms were assessed at 12.5, 13.5, 16, 17.5, 21 and 22 years with the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire, and we further examined the influence of multiple biological, psychological and social factors in explaining chronic depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Using latent class growth analysis, we identified four trajectories of depressive symptoms: persistent high, persistent low, persistent moderate and increasing high. After applying several logistic regression models, we found that loneliness and feeling less connected at school were the most relevant factors for chronic course of depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings contribute with the identification of those children who are at highest risk for developing chronic depressive symptoms.

Five-year follow-up of the iBerry Study: screening in early adolescence to identify those at risk of psychopathology in emerging adulthood

The iBerry Study, a Dutch population-based high-risk cohort (n = 1022) examines the transition from subclinical symptoms to psychiatric disorders in adolescents. Here, we present the first follow-up measurement, approximately 3 years after baseline assessment and 5 years after the screening based on self-reported emotional and behavioral problems (SDQ-Y). We give an update on the data collection, details on the (non)response, and the results on psychopathology outcomes. The first follow-up (2019-2022) had a response rate of 79% (n = 807). Our results at baseline (mean age 15.0 years) have shown the effectiveness of using the SDQ-Y to select a cohort oversampled for the risk of psychopathology. At first follow-up (mean age 18.1 years), the previously administered SDQ-Y remains predictive for selecting adolescents at risk. At follow-up, 47% of the high-risk adolescents showed significant mental health problems based on self- and parent reports and 46% of the high-risk adolescents met the criteria for multiple DSM-5 diagnoses. Compared to low-risk adolescents, high-risk adolescents had a sevenfold higher odds of significant emotional and behavioral problems at follow-up. Comprehensive assessment on psychopathology, substance abuse, psychotic symptoms, suicidality, nonsuicidal self-injury, addiction to social media and/or video gaming, and delinquency, as well as social development, and the utilization of healthcare and social services were conducted. This wave, as well as the ones to follow, track these adolescents into their young adulthood to identify risk factors, elucidate causal mechanisms, and discern pathways leading to both common and severe mental disorders. Results from the iBerry Study will provide leads for preventive interventions.

Antecedents of major depressive, bipolar, and psychotic disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies

Major depressive, bipolar, or psychotic disorders are preceded by earlier manifestations in behaviours and experiences. We present a synthesis of evidence on associations between person-level antecedents (behaviour, performance, psychopathology) in childhood, adolescence, or early adulthood and later onsets of major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, or psychotic disorder based on prospective studies published up to September 16, 2022. We screened 11,342 records, identified 460 eligible publications, and extracted 570 risk ratios quantifying the relationships between 52 antecedents and onsets in 198 unique samples with prospective follow-up of 122,766 individuals from a mean age of 12.4 to a mean age of 24.8 for 1522,426 person years of follow-up. We completed meta-analyses of 12 antecedents with adequate data. Psychotic symptoms, depressive symptoms, anxiety, disruptive behaviors, affective lability, and sleep problems were transdiagnostic antecedents associated with onsets of depressive, bipolar, and psychotic disorders. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity and hypomanic symptoms specifically predicted bipolar disorder. While transdiagnostic and diagnosis-specific antecedents inform targeted prevention and help understand pathogenic mechanisms, extensive gaps in evidence indicate potential for improving early risk identification.

Duration of the psychosis prodrome and its relationship to duration of untreated psychosis across all 12 DSM-IV psychotic diagnoses: Evidence for a trans-diagnostic process associated with resilience

While duration of the psychosis prodrome (DPP) attracts attention in relation to the developmental trajectory of psychotic illness and service models, fundamental issues endure in the context of dimensional-spectrum models of psychosis. Among 205 epidemiologically representative subjects in the Cavan-Monaghan First Episode Psychosis Study, DPP was systematically quantified and compared, for the first time, across all 12 DSM-IV psychotic diagnoses. DPP was also compared with duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) and each was then analysed in relation to premorbid features across three age ranges: <12, 12-15 and 16-18 years. For each diagnosis, medians for both DPP and DUP were shorter than means, indicating common right-skewed distributions. Rank orders for both DPP and DUP were longest for schizophrenia, intermediate for other schizophrenia-spectrum psychoses, psychotic depression and psychotic disorder not otherwise specified, and shortest for brief psychotic disorder, bipolar disorder and substance-induced psychotic disorder, though with overlapping right-skewed distributions. DPP was longer than DUP for all diagnoses except substance-induced psychotic disorder. Across functional psychotic diagnoses, longer DPP was predicted by higher premorbid intelligence and better premorbid adjustment during age 16-18 years. These findings indicate that, trans-diagnostically, DPP and DUP share right-skewed continuities, in accordance with a dimensional-spectrum model of psychotic illness, and may reflect a unitary process that has been dichotomized at a subjective threshold along its trajectory. Better premorbid functioning during age 16-18 years appears to confer resilience by delaying progression to overt psychotic symptoms and may constitute a particular target period for psychosocial interventions.

Emerging psychopathology and clinical staging in adolescent offspring of parents with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia-A longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

Offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (BDo) and schizophrenia (SZo) are at increased risk for these disorders and general psychopathology. Little is known about their (dis)similarities in risk and developmental trajectories during adolescence. A clinical staging approach may help define the developmental course of illness.

METHODS

The Dutch Bipolar and Schizophrenia Offspring Study is a unique cross-disorder and prospective cohort study, established in 2010. In total, 208 offspring (58 SZo, 94 BDo, and 56 control offspring [Co]) and their parents participated. Offspring were 13.2 years (SD = 2.5; range: 8-18 years) at baseline and 17.1 years (SD = 2.7) at follow-up (88.5% retention rate). Psychopathology was assessed using the Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School Age Children Present and Lifetime Version, and Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment parent-, self- and teacher-reports. Groups were compared on (1) the presence of categorical psychopathology, (2) timing and development of psychopathology using a clinical staging perspective, and (3) dimensional psychopathology using a multi-informant approach.

RESULTS

SZo and BDo showed more categorical psychopathology and (sub)clinical symptoms, as compared to Co. SZo have, compared to BDo, an increased risk for developmental disorders, a younger age of onset, and more (sub)clinical symptoms of the mood and behavioral spectrum as reported by multiple informants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that the phenotypical risk profile overlaps between SZo and BDo, although an earlier onset of developmental psychopathology was found specifically in SZo, suggesting of a potentially different ethiopathophysiology. Longer follow-up and future studies are needed.

Factors Associated with Transition to Serious Mental Illness

OBJECTIVE

There is increasing interest in early intervention and detection strategies for youth at-risk of developing a serious mental illness (SMI). Little is known about early factors that may be related to the later development of a SMI; thus, the aim of this study was to determine what clinical factors might relate to the development of in this study psychosis, bipolar disorder and severe or recurrent major depression in at-risk youth.

METHOD

The sample consisted of 162 youth aged 12-26 years at different stages of risk. Thirty-one participants developed a SMI during the study. Those who made a transition were compared on a range of baseline clinical and functional measures with those who did not make the transition. A Cox regression model was used to assess the association between measures and later development of a SMI.

RESULTS

Female sex, attenuated psychotic symptoms as assessed with the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms (SOPS) and ratings on the K-10 Distress Scale, were found to be significantly associated with the later transition to mental illness. Females were 2.77 times more likely to transition compared to males. For the SOPS and K-10 scales, there is a 14% increase in the transition rate relative to a one-scale increase in SOPS and a 7% increase in the transition rate relative to a one-point increase in the K-10.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from these longitudinal data provide further insight into the specific clinical measures that may be pertinent in early detection of mental illnesses.

Antecedents to first episode psychosis and mania: Comparing the initial prodromes of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in a retrospective population cohort

OBJECTIVE

We aim to compare the psychiatric antecedents of schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD).

METHODS

Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we searched for residents of Olmsted County that had a diagnosis of SZ or BD. We confirmed each case using DSM-5 criteria and obtained the psychiatric antecedents.

RESULTS

We identified 205 cases with first episode psychosis or mania (SZ = 131; BD = 74). The mean age at first visit for mental health reasons was 12.3 ± 6.3 years for SZ and 13.9 ± 5.6 years for BD. The duration of the initial prodrome (time from first mental health visit to first episode) was similar for both groups (SZ 8.3 ± 6.2 years vs BD 7.3 ± 5.9 years). We found that SZ and BD have overlapping antecedents, but SZ was more common in males and in foreign born and had more learning deficits before the first episode. BD was more common in white population and had higher rates of depressive and adjustment disorders prior to first episode. BD also had more affective symptoms, nightmares, and panic attacks before the first episode. Both groups had similarly high rates of substance use (SZ 74 % vs BD 74.3 %), prescription of antidepressants (SZ 46.6 % vs BD 55.4 %) and stimulants (SZ 30.5 % vs BD 22.9 %).

CONCLUSIONS

The psychiatric antecedents of SZ and BD usually start during adolescence, overlap, and present in unspecific ways. The initial prodromes are more alike than distinct. Further studies are encouraged to continue looking for specific factors that distinguish the antecedents of these two disorders.

The relationship between subjective sleep disturbance and attenuated psychotic symptoms after accounting for anxiety and depressive symptoms

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESES

Sleep disturbances are increasingly recognized as cooccurring with psychotic symptoms. The potential importance of this relationship is complicated when considering the effects of anxiety and depressive symptoms which commonly present in early-stage illness states. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between self-reported sleep disturbance on the development of attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) cross-sectionally and longitudinally while adjusting for roles of anxiety and depressive symptoms.

DESIGN

Eight-hundred and two help-seeking young people aged 12 to 25 years who engaged with our Australian early intervention services were included in the study (the "Transitions" cohort). Cross sectional mediation and cross-lagged longitudinal (12-month) mediation models were developed with outcomes being different APS domains.

RESULTS

Only baseline excessive daytime sleepiness predicted later APS when accounting for previous APS, anxiety and depressive symptomatology. Cross sectionally, self-reported sleep disturbance showed both direct and indirect predictive relationships with all APS domains. Partial mediation through anxiety and depression was shown for unusual thought content, perceptual abnormalities, and disorganised speech, while full mediation through depression was shown for non-bizarre ideas.

CONCLUSIONS

The specificity of the relationship between self-reported sleep disturbance on APS highlights the potential for different roles in mechanistic models of psychotic symptom expression. This further indicates the need for further experimental research to illuminate potential causal pathways. Future research should continue to use continuous, symptom level approaches across a range of timeframes to more accurately model the complex dynamics present in the sleep-psychosis relationship.

Multivariate patterns of disrupted sleep longitudinally predict affective vulnerability to psychosis in 22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome

22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) contributes dramatically to increased genetic risk for psychopathology, and in particular schizophrenia. Sleep disorders, including obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), are also highly prevalent, making 22q11DS a unique model to explore their impact on psychosis vulnerability. Still, the contribution of sleep disturbances to psychosis vulnerability remains unclear. We characterized the sleep phenotype of 69 individuals with 22q11DS and 38 healthy controls with actigraphy and sleep questionnaires. Psychiatric symptoms were measured concomitantly with the baseline sleep assessment and at longitudinal follow-up, 3.58±0.85 years later. We used a novel multivariate partial-least-square-correlation (PLSC) approach to identify sleep patterns combining objective and subjective variables, which correlated with psychiatric symptoms. We dissected longitudinal pathways linking sleep disturbances to psychosis, using multi-layer-network-analysis. 22q11DS was characterized by a non-restorative sleep pattern, combining increased daytime fatigue despite longer sleep duration. Non-restorative sleep combined with OSA symptoms correlated with both emotional and psychotic symptoms. Moreover, a sleep pattern evocative of OSA predicted longitudinal worsening of positive and negative symptoms, by accentuating the effects of emotional dysregulation. These results suggest that sleep disturbances could significantly increase psychosis risk, along an affective pathway. If confirmed, this suggests that systematic screening of sleep quality could mitigate psychosis vulnerability in 22q11DS.

Longitudinal changes in brain metabolites in healthy controls and patients with first episode psychosis: a 7-Tesla MRS study

Seven Tesla magnetic resonance spectroscopy (7T MRS) offers a precise measurement of metabolic levels in the human brain via a non-invasive approach. Studying longitudinal changes in brain metabolites could help evaluate the characteristics of disease over time. This approach may also shed light on how the age of study participants and duration of illness may influence these metabolites. This study used 7T MRS to investigate longitudinal patterns of brain metabolites in young adulthood in both healthy controls and patients. A four-year longitudinal cohort with 38 patients with first episode psychosis (onset within 2 years) and 48 healthy controls was used to examine 10 brain metabolites in 5 brain regions associated with the pathophysiology of psychosis in a comprehensive manner. Both patients and controls were found to have significant longitudinal reductions in glutamate in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Only patients were found to have a significant decrease over time in γ-aminobutyric acid, N-acetyl aspartate, myo-inositol, total choline, and total creatine in the ACC. Together we highlight the ACC with dynamic changes in several metabolites in early-stage psychosis, in contrast to the other 4 brain regions that also are known to play roles in psychosis. Meanwhile, glutathione was uniquely found to have a near zero annual percentage change in both patients and controls in all 5 brain regions during a four-year follow-up in young adulthood. Given that a reduction of the glutathione in the ACC has been reported as a feature of treatment-refractory psychosis, this observation further supports the potential of glutathione as a biomarker for this subset of patients with psychosis.

Empirically driven transdiagnostic stages in the development of mood, anxiety and psychotic symptoms in a cohort of youth followed from birth

Staging models with transdiagnostic validity across mood, psychotic, and anxiety disorders could advance early intervention efforts as well as our understanding of the common underpinnings of such psychopathology. However, there are few well-supported operationalisations for such transdiagnostic models, particularly in community-based samples. We aimed to explore the inter-relationships among mood, psychotic, and anxiety symptom stages, and their common risk factors to develop data-informed transdiagnostic stages. We included participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a prospective ongoing birth cohort study. We developed operational thresholds for stages of depressive, hypomanic, anxiety, and psychotic symptoms based on the existing literature, refined further by expert consensus. We selected 1b level as the primary stage or outcome of interest. This represents moderate symptoms that are likely to be associated with the onset of the need for clinical mental health care. We used questionnaire and clinic data completed by young people ages 18 and 21 years. We used descriptive methods and network analyses to examine the overlap among Stage 1b psychopathology. We then examined the patterns of relationships between several risk factors and 1b stages using logistic regressions. Among 3269 young people with data available to determine all symptom stages, 64.3% were female and 96% Caucasian. Descriptive and network analyses indicated that 1b level depressive, anxiety, and psychotic symptom stages were inter-related while hypomania was not. Similarly, anxiety, depressive, and psychotic 1b stages were associated with the female sex, more emotional and behavioral difficulties in early adolescence, and life events in late adolescence. Hypomania was not related to any of these risk factors. Given their inter-relationships and similar risk factors, anxiety, psychotic and depressive, symptoms could be combined to form a transdiagnostic stage in this cohort. Such empirical transdiagnostic stages could help with prognostication and indicated prevention in youth mental health.

Effectiveness of a transdiagnostic emotion regulation training in an at-risk sample: a randomized-controlled trial of group-based training versus self-help bibliotherapy

OBJECTIVES

Subclinical psychotic, depression, and anxiety symptoms form a transdiagnostic 'at-risk state' for the development of mental disorders. Emotion regulation has been identified as a transdiagnostic factor relevant to the formation of these symptoms that can be successfully addressed in clinical interventions. Here, we tested whether a group-based emotion regulation training would be effective in reducing distress and at preventing the transition to mental disorders in an at-risk sample.

METHODS

Participants with distressing subclinical psychotic, depression, or anxiety symptoms (n = 138) were randomly allocated to either the 8-week group-based affect regulation training (ART; Springer, New York) or an 8-week self-help bibliotherapy (BT). They underwent biweekly measurements during the intervention, as well as at a six- and 12-month follow-up. In an exploratory analysis, we tested whether the ART would be superior to BT in preventing the transition to any mental disorder at 12-month follow-up. We also tested for differences in trajectories of psychopathology and emotion regulation (via questionnaires) and emotion regulation in daily life (via the experience-sampling method).

RESULTS

Participants in the ART condition showed a greater improvement of emotion regulation in daily life than those with BT, but the ART was not superior over BT in preventing the transition to mental disorders. There were significant longitudinal reductions from pre- to post-intervention for general psychopathology and symptoms but no superiority of the ART over BT.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite its efficacy in improving emotion regulation skills, the ART does not produce effects on psychopathology that justify its recommendation over self-help approaches.

Clinical staging and the differential risks for clinical and functional outcomes in young people presenting for youth mental health care

BACKGROUND

Clinical staging proposes that youth-onset mental disorders develop progressively, and that active treatment of earlier stages should prevent progression to more severe disorders. This retrospective cohort study examined the longitudinal relationships between clinical stages and multiple clinical and functional outcomes within the first 12 months of care.

METHODS

Demographic and clinical information of 2901 young people who accessed mental health care at age 12-25 years was collected at predetermined timepoints (baseline, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months). Initial clinical stage was used to define three fixed groups for analyses (stage 1a: 'non-specific anxious or depressive symptoms', 1b: 'attenuated mood or psychotic syndromes', 2+: 'full-threshold mood or psychotic syndromes'). Logistic regression models, which controlled for age and follow-up time, were used to compare clinical and functional outcomes (role and social function, suicidal ideation, alcohol and substance misuse, physical health comorbidity, circadian disturbances) between staging groups within the initial 12 months of care.

RESULTS

Of the entire cohort, 2093 young people aged 12-25 years were followed up at least once over the first 12 months of care, with 60.4% female and a baseline mean age of 18.16 years. Longitudinally, young people at stage 2+ were more likely to develop circadian disturbances (odds ratio [OR]=2.58; CI 1.60-4.17), compared with individuals at stage 1b. Additionally, stage 1b individuals were more likely to become disengaged from education/employment (OR=2.11, CI 1.36-3.28), develop suicidal ideations (OR=1.92; CI 1.30-2.84) and circadian disturbances (OR=1.94, CI 1.31-2.86), compared to stage 1a. By contrast, we found no relationship between clinical stage and the emergence of alcohol or substance misuse and physical comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

The differential rates of emergence of poor clinical and functional outcomes between early versus late clinical stages support the clinical staging model's assumptions about illness trajectories for mood and psychotic syndromes. The greater risk of progression to poor outcomes in those who present with more severe syndromes may be used to guide specific intervention packages.

Potential for prediction of psychosis and bipolar disorder in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services: a longitudinal register study of all people born in Finland in 1987

Current strategies to predict psychosis identify only a small proportion of individuals at risk. Additional strategies are needed to increase capacity for pre-diction and prevention of serious mental illness, ideally during childhood and adolescence. One possible approach would be to investigate systems in which psychosis risk factors are concentrated during childhood. One notable such system is represented by Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS). Although psychotic disorders are uncommon in CAMHS, many risk factors for psychosis are highly prevalent in young people who enter this system. We hypothesized, therefore, that youth attending CAMHS would be a high-risk group for psychosis if followed into adulthood and, furthermore, that CAMHS systems would capture a substantial proportion of future psychosis cases. We constructed a total population cohort study of all Finns born in 1987 (N=55,875), linking together extensive register data on health care contacts from birth through age 28 years. We identified all individuals diagnosed with a psychotic or bipolar disorder by age 28 (N=1,785). The risk of psychosis/bipolar disorder by age 28 years was 1.8% for individuals who had not attended CAMHS during childhood or adolescence, whereas it was 12.8% for those with a history of any outpatient CAMHS contact (odds ratio, OR=7.9, 95% CI: 7.2-8.7). Furthermore, the risk of psychosis/bipolar disorder by age 28 years was 2.3% for individuals without a history of inpatient CAMHS admission, whereas it was 24.0% for those with a history of inpatient CAMHS admission (OR=13.3, 95% CI: 11.9-14.9), and 36.5% for those with a history of inpatient CAMHS admission in adolescence (age 13-17 years) (OR=24.2, 95% CI: 21.2-27.6). Individuals who attended CAMHS but received no mental disorder diagnosis had an equally high risk of subsequently developing a psychosis/bipolar disorder as individuals who did receive a diagnosis (OR=0.9, 99.5% CI: 0.7-1.1). Compared to other CAMHS attendees, individuals who developed psychosis or bipolar disorder were more likely to have had an initial CAMHS diagnosis of depressive or other mood disorder (OR=2.3, 99.5% CI: 1.6-3.0) and disruptive behaviour disorder (OR=1.7, 99.5% CI: 1.2-2.5). Of all psychosis/bipolar diagnoses by age 28 years, 50.2% occurred in individuals who had, at some point in childhood or adolescence, attended CAMHS, indicating that CAMHS represent not only a high-risk but also a high-capacity system for prediction of psychosis/bipolar disorder. These findings suggest an enormous, untapped potential for large-scale psychosis/bipolar disorder prediction and prevention research within existing specialist CAMHS.

Understanding the development of bipolar disorder and borderline personality disorder in young people: a meta-review of systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

There is ongoing debate on the nosological position of bipolar disorder (BD) and borderline personality disorder (BPD). Identifying the unique and shared risks, developmental pathways, and symptoms in emerging BD and BPD could help the field refine aetiological hypotheses and improve the prediction of the onset of these disorders. This study aimed to: (a) systematically synthesise the available evidence from systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MAs) concerning environmental, psychosocial, biological, and clinical factors leading to the emergence of BD and BPD; (b) identify the main differences and common features between the two disorders to characterise their complex interplay and, (c) highlight remaining evidence gaps.

METHODS

Data sources were; PubMed, PsychINFO, Embase, Cochrane, CINAHL, Medline, ISI Web of Science. Overlap of included SRs/MAs was assessed using the corrected covered area process. The methodological quality of each included SR and MA was assessed using the AMSTAR.

RESULTS

22 SRs and MAs involving 249 prospective studies met eligibility criteria. Results demonstrated that family history of psychopathology, affective instability, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety disorders, depression, sleep disturbances, substance abuse, psychotic symptoms, suicidality, childhood adversity and temperament were common predisposing factors across both disorders. There are also distinct factors specific to emerging BD or BPD.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective studies are required to increase our understanding of the development of BD and BPD onset and their complex interplay by concurrently examining multiple measures in BD and BPD at-risk populations.

Brain connectomes in youth at risk for serious mental illness: an exploratory analysis

BACKGROUND

Identifying early biomarkers of serious mental illness (SMI)-such as changes in brain structure and function-can aid in early diagnosis and treatment. Whole brain structural and functional connectomes were investigated in youth at risk for SMI.

METHODS

Participants were classified as healthy controls (HC; n = 33), familial risk for serious mental illness (stage 0; n = 31), mild symptoms (stage 1a; n = 37), attenuated syndromes (stage 1b; n = 61), or discrete disorder (transition; n = 9) based on clinical assessments. Imaging data was collected from two sites. Graph-theory based analysis was performed on the connectivity matrix constructed from whole-brain white matter fibers derived from constrained spherical deconvolution of the diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) scans, and from the correlations between brain regions measured with resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data.

RESULTS

Linear mixed effects analysis and analysis of covariance revealed no significant differences between groups in global or nodal metrics after correction for multiple comparisons. A follow up machine learning analysis broadly supported the findings. Several non-overlapping frontal and temporal network differences were identified in the structural and functional connectomes before corrections.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest significant brain connectome changes in youth at transdiagnostic risk may not be evident before illness onset.

My child's future mental health: Carer's engagement with risk identification in an intervention study for youth with at-risk mental states

AIM

Prevention and early intervention efforts of serious mental illnesses has yielded promising results. However, alongside benefits, several ethical concerns have been raised, including the effects of being identified as being at-risk. In these debates, the voice of parents or carers is conspicuously absent. This is especially concerning as several at-risk interventions are trialled in under-age youth where parents consent on behalf of young people. Therefore, this study aimed to understand carer's experiences of their teenager being identified as at risk for psychosis.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven carers who had provided consent for their teenager to participate in a stepped intervention study for youth at-risk for psychosis. Questions explored their experiences regarding having their teenager being identified as at-risk. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

We identified five main themes from seven female carers' experiences of risk identification including: (a) recall of risk information was limited, or variable, (b) goal of risk disclosure was perceived to be positive, (c) negative emotions were associated with knowledge of risk, (d) relief from uncertainty and helplessness and (e) effects of risk disclosure were mediated by individual circumstance.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the results demonstrate that carers' experience of risk disclosure varied with factors surrounding their individual circumstances, and the process of disclosure. Whilst participants acknowledged potential adverse effects associated with risk disclosure, many still adopted a positive outlook. Tailoring safe and effective disclosure of risk to suit the needs of youth and carers could outweigh the potential risks.

Dynamic symptom networks across different at-risk stages for psychosis: An individual and transdiagnostic perspective

The clinical staging model distinguishes different stages of mental illness. Early stages, are suggested to be more mild, diffuse and volatile in terms of expression of psychopathology than later stages. This study aimed to compare individual transdiagnostic symptom networks based on intensive longitudinal data between individuals in different early clinical stages for psychosis. It was hypothesized that with increasing clinical stage (i) density of symptom networks would increase and (ii) psychotic experiences would be more central in the symptom networks. Data came from a 90-day diary study, resulting in 8640 observations within N = 96 individuals, divided over four subgroups representing different early clinical stages (n₁ = 25, n₂ = 27, n₃ = 24, n₄ = 20). Sparse Time Series Chain Graphical Models were used to create individual contemporaneous and temporal symptom networks based on 10 items concerning symptoms of depression, anxiety, psychosis, non-specific and vulnerability domains. Network density and symptom centrality (strength) were calculated individually and compared between and within the four subgroups. Level of psychopathology increased with clinical stage. The symptom networks showed large between-individual variation, but neither network density not psychotic symptom strength differed between the subgroups in the contemporaneous (p_density = 0.59, p_strength > 0.51) and temporal (p_density = 0.75, p_strength > 0.35) networks. No support was found for our hypothesis that higher clinical stage comes with higher symptom network density or a more central role for psychotic symptoms. Based on the high inter-individual variability, our results highlight the importance of individualized assessment of symptom networks.

Categorical versus dimensional models of early psychosis

AIM

Early psychosis is typically operationalized as a categorical construct by dividing people into one of three diagnostic statuses: low-risk, clinical high-risk, and first episode psychosis. We empirically assess whether an alternative dimensional approach focused on observed symptom severity may be more desirable for clinical and research purposes.

METHODS

Participants were 152 help-seeking youths ages 12-22 years old. Structured interview for psychosis risk syndromes interviews were used to obtain dimensional psychosis symptom severity ratings, and to classify participants by categorical psychosis risk status. Twenty-five participants were classified as having a diagnosable psychotic disorder, 52 participants as clinical high-risk, and 75 participants as help-seeking controls. We assessed the relation between categorical and dimensional measurements of psychosis severity, and then compared categorical versus dimensional psychosis severity in their ability to predict social and role functioning.

RESULTS

On average, dimensional psychosis symptom severity increased along with categorical risk status (help-seeking control < clinical high-risk < diagnosable psychotic disorder). There was, however, considerable overlap between categories, with people at clinical high-risk being particularly hard to distinguish from people with diagnosable psychotic disorders on the basis of symptom severity. Dimensional symptom severity was more predictive of functioning than categorical risk status.

CONCLUSIONS

Categorical risk status and psychosis symptom severity are related but not interchangeable, and dimensional models of psychosis may be more predictive of functional outcomes. Adopting a dimensional rather than categorical approach to the psychosis risk spectrum may facilitate better predictive models and a richer theoretical understanding of early psychosis.

Effects of a Novel, Transdiagnostic, Hybrid Ecological Momentary Intervention for Improving Resilience in Youth (EMIcompass): Protocol for an Exploratory Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Most mental disorders first emerge in youth and, in their early stages, surface as subthreshold expressions of symptoms comprising a transdiagnostic phenotype of psychosis, mania, depression, and anxiety. Elevated stress reactivity is one of the most widely studied mechanisms underlying psychotic and affective mental health problems. Thus, targeting stress reactivity in youth is a promising indicated and translational preventive strategy for adverse mental health outcomes that could develop later in life and for improving resilience. Compassion-focused interventions offer a wide range of innovative therapeutic techniques that are particularly amenable to being implemented as ecological momentary interventions (EMIs), a specific type of mobile health intervention, to enable youth to access interventions in a given moment and context in daily life. This approach may bridge the current gap in youth mental health care.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the clinical feasibility, candidate underlying mechanisms, and initial signals of the efficacy of a novel, transdiagnostic, hybrid EMI for improving resilience to stress in youth-EMIcompass.

METHODS

In an exploratory randomized controlled trial, youth aged between 14 and 25 years with current distress, a broad Clinical High At-Risk Mental State, or the first episode of a severe mental disorder will be randomly allocated to the EMIcompass intervention (ie, EMI plus face-to-face training sessions) in addition to treatment as usual or a control condition of treatment as usual only. Primary (stress reactivity) and secondary candidate mechanisms (resilience, interpersonal sensitivity, threat anticipation, negative affective appraisals, and momentary physiological markers of stress reactivity), as well as primary (psychological distress) and secondary outcomes (primary psychiatric symptoms and general psychopathology), will be assessed at baseline, postintervention, and at the 4-week follow-up.

RESULTS

The first enrollment was in August 2019, and as of May 2021, enrollment and randomization was completed (N=92). We expect data collection to be completed by August 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to establish feasibility, evidence on underlying mechanisms, and preliminary signals of the efficacy of a compassion-focused EMI in youth. If successful, a confirmatory randomized controlled trial will be warranted. Overall, our approach has the potential to significantly advance preventive interventions in youth mental health provision.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00017265; https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00017265.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/27462.

Functional imaging in youth at risk for transdiagnostic serious mental illness: Initial results from the PROCAN study

BACKGROUND

In their early stages, serious mental illnesses (SMIs) are often indistinguishable from one another, suggesting that studying alterations in brain activity in a transdiagnostic fashion could help to understand the neurophysiological origins of different SMI. The purpose of this study was to examine brain activity in youth at varying stages of risk for SMI using functional magnetic resonance imaging tasks (fMRI) that engage brain systems believed to be affected.

METHODS

Two hundred and forty three participants at different stages of risk for SMI were recruited to the Canadian Psychiatric Risk and Outcome (PROCAN) study, however only 179 were scanned. Stages included asymptomatic participants at no elevated risk, asymptomatic participants at elevated risk due to family history, participants with undifferentiated general symptoms of mental illness, and those experiencing attenuated versions of diagnosable psychiatric illnesses. The fMRI tasks included: (1) a monetary incentive delay task; (2) an emotional Go-NoGo and (3) an n-back working memory task.

RESULTS

Strong main effects with each of the tasks were found in brain regions previously described in the literature. However, there were no significant differences in brain activity between any of the stages of risk for SMI for any of the task contrasts, after accounting for site, sex and age. Furthermore, results indicated no significant differences even when participants were dichotomized as asymptomatic or symptomatic.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that univariate BOLD responses during typical fMRI tasks are not sensitive markers of SMI risk and that further study, particularly longitudinal designs, will be necessary to understand brain changes underlying the early stages of SMI.

Clinical staging for youth at-risk for serious mental illness: A longitudinal perspective

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to identify a sample of youth in distinct stages of risk for the development of a serious mental illness (SMI) according to a published clinical staging model and to follow this sample longitudinally to determine clinical changes over time. This article reports the 6- and 12-month follow-up of the cohort.

METHODS

This study recruited 243 youth, ages 12 to 25. The sample included (a) 42 healthy controls, (b) 41 nonhelpseeking individuals with no mental illness but some risk of SMI, for example, having a first-degree relative with an SMI (stage 0), (c) 53 youth experiencing distress and mild symptoms of anxiety or depression (stage 1a), and (d) 107 youth with attenuated symptoms of SMIs such as bipolar disorder or psychosis (stage 1b). Participants completed a range of measures assessing depression, anxiety, mania, suicide ideation, attenuated psychotic symptoms, negative symptoms, anhedonia and beliefs about oneself at baseline, 6- and 12-months.

RESULTS

There were few changes for healthy controls and stage 0 participants, although approximately 7% did move to a symptomatic stage within 12-months. Of stage 1a participants, 50% remained symptomatic, with 7.5% moving to stage 1b or developing a SMI. Approximately 9% of stage 1byouth developed a SMI within 12-months and approximately one-third had remission of symptoms during the follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the implementation of a transdiagnostic staging model may be useful in youth mental health and support consideration of clinical stage-based treatment for youth with early features of risk.

The jumping to conclusions reasoning bias as a cognitive factor contributing to psychosis progression and persistence: findings from NEMESIS-2

BACKGROUND

Contemporary models of psychosis implicate the importance of affective dysregulation and cognitive factors (e.g. biases and schemas) in the development and maintenance of psychotic symptoms, but studies testing proposed mechanisms remain limited. This study, uniquely using a prospective design, investigated whether the jumping to conclusions (JTC) reasoning bias contributes to psychosis progression and persistence.

METHODS

Data were derived from the second Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-2). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview and an add-on instrument were used to assess affective dysregulation (i.e. depression, anxiety and mania) and psychotic experiences (PEs), respectively. The beads task was used to assess JTC bias. Time series analyses were conducted using data from T1 and T2 (N = 8666), excluding individuals who reported high psychosis levels at T0.

RESULTS

Although the prospective design resulted in low statistical power, the findings suggest that, compared to those without symptoms, individuals with lifetime affective dysregulation were more likely to progress from low/moderate psychosis levels (state of 'aberrant salience', one or two PEs) at T1 to high psychosis levels ('frank psychosis', three or more PEs or psychosis-related help-seeking behaviour) at T2 if the JTC bias was present [adj. relative risk ratio (RRR): 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8-18.6, p = 0.101]. Similarly, the JTC bias contributed to the persistence of high psychosis levels (adj. RRR: 12.7, 95% CI 0.7-239.6, p = 0.091).

CONCLUSIONS

We found some evidence that the JTC bias may contribute to psychosis progression and persistence in individuals with affective dysregulation. However, well-powered prospective studies are needed to replicate these findings.

White matter microstructure in youth at risk for serious mental illness: A comparative analysis

Identifying biomarkers of serious mental illness, such as altered white matter microstructure, can aid in early diagnosis and treatment. White matter microstructure was assessed using constrained spherical deconvolution of diffusion imaging data in a sample of 219 youth (age 12-25 years, 64.84% female) across 8 sites. Participants were classified as healthy controls (HC; n = 47), familial risk for serious mental illness (n = 31), mild-symptoms (n = 37), attenuated syndromes (n = 66), or discrete disorder (n = 38) based on clinical assessments. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) values were derived for the whole brain white matter, forceps minor, anterior cingulate, anterior thalamic radiations (ATR), inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus, superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), and uncinate fasciculus (UF). Linear mixed effects models showed a significant effect of age on MD of the left ATR, left SLF, and left UF, and a significant effect of group on FA for all tracts examined. For most tracts, the discrete disorder group had significantly lower FA than other groups, and the attenuated syndromes group had higher FA compared to HC, with few differences between the remaining groups. White matter differences in MDD are most evident in individuals following illness onset, as few significant differences were observed in the risk phase.

Prediction of clinical outcomes beyond psychosis in the ultra-high risk for psychosis population

AIM

Several prediction models have been introduced to identify young people at greatest risk of transitioning to psychosis. To date, none has examined the possibility of developing a clinical prediction model of outcomes other than transition. The aims of this study were to examine the association between baseline clinical predictors and outcomes including, but not limited to, transition to psychosis in young people at risk for psychosis, and to develop a prediction model for these outcomes.

METHODS

Several evidence-based variables previously associated with transition to psychosis and some important clinical comorbidities experienced by ultra-high risk (UHR) individuals were identified in 202 UHR individuals. Secondary analysis of the Neurapro clinical trial were conducted to investigate the associations between these variables and favourable (remission and recovery) or unfavourable (transition to psychosis, no remission, any recurrence and relapse) clinical outcomes. Logistic regression, best subset selection, Akaike Information Criterion and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to seek the best prediction model for clinical outcomes from all combinations of possible predictors.

RESULTS

When considered individually, only higher general psychopathology levels (P = .023) was associated with the unfavourable outcomes. Prediction models suggest that general psychopathology and functioning are predictive of unfavourable outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The predictive performance of the resulting models was modest and further research is needed. Nonetheless, when designing early intervention centres aiming to support individuals in the early phases of a mental disorder, the proper assessment of general psychopathology and functioning should be considered in order to inform interventions and length of care provided.

Systematic comparison of duration of untreated illness versus duration of untreated psychosis in relation to psychopathology and dysfunction in the Cavan-Monaghan first episode psychosis study (CAMFEPS)

This study systematically compared duration of untreated illness (DUI) with duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) in prediction of impairment at first-episode psychosis and investigated the extent to which these relationships are influenced by premorbid features. The Cavan-Monaghan First Episode Psychosis Study ascertained cases of first-episode psychosis in rural Ireland via all routes to care with limited variations in socioeconomic milieu. Cases were evaluated for DUI and DUP and assessed clinically for psychopathology, neuropsychology, neurology, insight and quality of life, together with premorbid features. Analyses then determined prediction of clinical assessments by DUI versus DUP. The study population consisted of 163 cases of first episode psychosis, among which 74 had a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Shorter DUI but not DUP predicted less severe positive and general symptoms, while shorter DUP and particularly DUI predicted less severe negative symptoms; neither shorter DUP nor shorter DUI predicted less severe cognitive impairment or fewer neurological soft signs; shorter DUP and DUI predicted increased quality of life; shorter DUI but not DUP predicted greater insight. Only prediction of quality of life was weakened by consideration of premorbid features. Results were generally similar across the two diagnostic groupings. The present findings systematically delineate associations with DUI versus DUP across domains of impairment in first episode psychosis. They suggest that DUI may reflect a more insidious process than DUP and that reduction in DUI may be associated with more consistent and broader diminutions in impairment than for DUP.

Personality and risk for serious mental illness

AIM

Certain personality traits may be related to an increased risk of developing a severe mental illness (SMI). This study examined differences in personality characteristics in a sample of youth at-risk of SMI across different clinical stages compared to healthy controls (HCs).

METHOD

Personality characteristics were assessed with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory-3 for 41 non-help seeking asymptomatic youth with risk factors for SMI (Stage 0), 52 youth with early mood and anxiety symptoms and distress (Stage 1a), 108 youth with an attenuated psychiatric syndrome (Stage 1b), and 42 HCs.

RESULTS

Symptomatic participants scored significantly higher in neuroticism, and lower in extraversion, and conscientiousness compared to non-symptomatic participants. Compared to published norms, symptomatic participants had ratings of extraversion and conscientiousness in the low range and those with attenuated psychiatric syndromes scored high on neuroticism.

CONCLUSION

The observed personality profiles of the symptomatic stages were similar to reported profiles for discrete disorders. Early identification of this profile could aid identification of those at risk of SMI.

Genetic and clinical analyses of psychosis spectrum symptoms in a large multiethnic youth cohort reveal significant link with ADHD

Psychotic symptoms are not only an important feature of severe neuropsychiatric disorders, but are also common in the general population, especially in youth. The genetic etiology of psychosis symptoms in youth remains poorly understood. To characterize genetic risk for psychosis spectrum symptoms (PS), we leverage a community-based multiethnic sample of children and adolescents aged 8-22 years, the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (n = 7225, 20% PS). Using an elastic net regression model, we aim to classify PS status using polygenic scores (PGS) based on a range of heritable psychiatric and brain-related traits in a multi-PGS model. We also perform univariate PGS associations and evaluate age-specific effects. The multi-PGS analyses do not improve prediction of PS status over univariate models, but reveal that the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) PGS is robustly and uniquely associated with PS (OR 1.12 (1.05, 1.18) P = 0.0003). This association is driven by subjects of European ancestry (OR = 1.23 (1.14, 1.34), P = 4.15 × 10^-7) but is not observed in African American subjects (P = 0.65). We find a significant interaction of ADHD PGS with age (P = 0.01), with a stronger association in younger children. The association is independent of phenotypic overlap between ADHD and PS, not indirectly driven by substance use or childhood trauma, and appears to be specific to PS rather than reflecting general psychopathology in youth. In an independent sample, we replicate an increased ADHD PGS in 328 youth at clinical high risk for psychosis, compared to 216 unaffected controls (OR 1.06, CI(1.01, 1.11), P = 0.02). Our findings suggest that PS in youth may reflect a different genetic etiology than psychotic symptoms in adulthood, one more akin to ADHD, and shed light on how genetic risk can be investigated across early disease trajectories.

Pluripotential Risk and Clinical Staging: Theoretical Considerations and Preliminary Data From a Transdiagnostic Risk Identification Approach

Most psychiatric disorders develop during adolescence and young adulthood and are preceded by a phase during which attenuated or episodic symptoms and functional decline are apparent. The introduction of the ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria two decades ago created a new framework for identification of risk and for pre-emptive psychiatry, focusing on first episode psychosis as an outcome. Research in this paradigm demonstrated the comorbid, diffuse nature of emerging psychopathology and a high degree of developmental heterotopy, suggesting the need to adopt a broader, more agnostic approach to risk identification. Guided by the principles of clinical staging, we introduce the concept of a pluripotent at-risk mental state. The clinical high at risk mental state (CHARMS) approach broadens identification of risk beyond psychosis, encompassing multiple exit syndromes such as mania, severe depression, and personality disorder. It does not diagnostically differentiate the early stages of psychopathology, but adopts a "pluripotent" approach, allowing for overlapping and heterotypic trajectories and enabling the identification of both transdiagnostic and specific risk factors. As CHARMS is developed within the framework of clinical staging, clinical utility is maximized by acknowledging the dimensional nature of clinical phenotypes, while retaining thresholds for introducing specific interventions. Preliminary data from our ongoing CHARMS cohort study (N = 114) show that 34% of young people who completed the 12-month follow-up assessment (N = 78) transitioned from Stage 1b (attenuated syndrome) to Stage 2 (full disorder). While not without limitations, this broader risk identification approach might ultimately allow reliable, transdiagnostic identification of young people in the early stages of severe mental illness, presenting further opportunities for targeted early intervention and prevention strategies.

Predicting change in diagnosis from major depression to bipolar disorder after antidepressant initiation

We aimed to develop and validate classification models able to identify individuals at high risk for transition from a diagnosis of depressive disorder to one of bipolar disorder. This retrospective health records cohort study applied outpatient clinical data from psychiatry and nonpsychiatry practice networks affiliated with two large academic medical centers between March 2008 and December 2017. Participants included 67,807 individuals with a diagnosis of major depressive disorder or depressive disorder not otherwise specified and no prior diagnosis of bipolar disorder, who received at least one of the nine antidepressant medications. The main outcome was at least one diagnostic code reflective of a bipolar disorder diagnosis within 3 months of index antidepressant prescription. Logistic regression and random forests using diagnostic and procedure codes as well as sociodemographic features were used to predict this outcome, with discrimination and calibration assessed in a held-out test set and then a second academic medical center. Among 67,807 individuals who received at least one antidepressant medication, 925 (1.36%) subsequently received a diagnosis of bipolar disorder within 3 months. Models incorporating coded diagnoses and procedures yielded a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 (ranging from 0.73 to 0.80). Standard supervised machine learning methods enabled development of discriminative and transferable models to predict transition to bipolar disorder. With further validation, these scores may enable physicians to more precisely calibrate follow-up intensity for high-risk patients after antidepressant initiation.

Genetic liability in individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis: A comparison study of 9 psychiatric traits

Individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis are characterised by the emergence of attenuated psychotic symptoms and deterioration in functioning. In view of the high non-psychotic comorbidity and low rates of transition to psychosis, the specificity of the UHR status has been called into question. This study aims to (i) investigate if the UHR construct is associated with the genetic liability of schizophrenia or other psychiatric conditions; (ii) examine the ability of polygenic risk scores (PRS) to discriminate healthy controls from UHR, remission and conversion status. PRS was calculated for 210 youths (nUHR = 102, nControl = 108) recruited as part of the Longitudinal Youth at Risk Study (LYRIKS) using nine psychiatric traits derived from twelve large-scale psychiatric genome-wide association studies as discovery datasets. PRS was also examined to discriminate UHR-Healthy control status, and healthy controls from UHR remission and conversion status. Result indicated that schizophrenia PRS appears to best index the genetic liability of UHR, while trend level associations were observed for depression and cross-disorder PRS. Schizophrenia PRS discriminated healthy controls from UHR (R2 = 7.9%, p = 2.59 x 10-3, OR = 1.82), healthy controls from non-remitters (R2 = 8.1%, p = 4.90 x 10-4, OR = 1.90), and converters (R2 = 7.6%, p = 1.61 x 10-3, OR = 1.82), with modest predictive ability. A trend gradient increase in schizophrenia PRS was observed across categories. The association between schizophrenia PRS and UHR status supports the hypothesis that the schizophrenia polygenic liability indexes the risk for developing psychosis.

Validity of retrospectively-reported depressive episodes

BACKGROUND

Depression and other psychopathology are often assessed retrospectively. Few studies have evaluated the validity of these reports by comparing prospectively-assessed symptoms to retrospective reports during the same time period.

METHODS

This study utilized a subset of participants (n = 68) from the Oregon Adolescent Depression Project who completed at least one mailer assessment of depressive symptoms during a retrospectively-reported depressive episode. Participants completed up to seven mailer assessments of depression and suicidal ideation and diagnostic assessments that included retrospectively-reported depressive episodes that coincided with the mailer assessments.

RESULTS

Multilevel linear models examined differences in depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation during and between retrospectively-reported depressive episodes. Results showed that individuals reported significantly higher levels of depression and suicidal ideation for retrospectively-reported depressive episodes compared to when they were not in depressive episodes. In addition, the average level of depressive symptoms endorsed during retrospectively-reported depressive episodes reached established clinical cut-offs.

LIMITATIONS

Although we were able to determine whether symptoms during retrospectively-reported depressive episodes approached clinical cut-offs, we were unable to examine whether symptoms met criteria for depressive episodes. Additionally, we could not examine whether episode severity related to recall ability, and other forms of psychopathology were not assessed.

CONCLUSION

These findings provide critical evidence for the validity of retrospectively-reported depressive episodes. Future research should examine whether these findings generalize across varying recall periods and retrospective assessments for other psychopathology.

Early identification of bipolar disorder among young adults - a 22-year community birth cohort

OBJECTIVE

We set forth to build a prediction model of individuals who would develop bipolar disorder (BD) using machine learning techniques in a large birth cohort.

METHODS

A total of 3748 subjects were studied at birth, 11, 15, 18, and 22 years of age in a community birth cohort. We used the elastic net algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation to predict which individuals would develop BD at endpoint (22 years) at each follow-up visit before diagnosis (from birth up to 18 years). Afterward, we used the best model to calculate the subgroups of subjects at higher and lower risk of developing BD and analyzed the clinical differences among them.

RESULTS

A total of 107 (2.8%) individuals within the cohort presented with BD type I, 26 (0.6%) with BD type II, and 87 (2.3%) with BD not otherwise specified. Frequency of female individuals was 58.82% (n = 150) in the BD sample and 53.02% (n = 1868) among the unaffected population. The model with variables assessed at the 18-year follow-up visit achieved the best performance: AUC 0.82 (CI 0.75-0.88), balanced accuracy 0.75, sensitivity 0.72, and specificity 0.77. The most important variables to detect BD at the 18-year follow-up visit were suicide risk, generalized anxiety disorder, parental physical abuse, and financial problems. Additionally, the high-risk subgroup of BD showed a high frequency of drug use and depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a risk calculator for BD incorporating both demographic and clinical variables from a 22-year birth cohort. Our findings support previous studies in high-risk samples showing the significance of suicide risk and generalized anxiety disorder prior to the onset of BD, and highlight the role of social factors and adverse life events.

Expanding the search for emerging mental ill health to safeguard student potential and vocational success in high school: A narrative review

AIM

Young people experiencing mental ill health are more likely than their healthy aged peers to drop out of high school. This can result in social exclusion and vocational derailment. Identifying young people at risk and taking action before an illness is established or school dropout occurs is an important goal. This study aimed to examine evidence for the risk markers and at risk mental states of the clinical staging model (stage 0-1b) and whether these risk states and early symptoms impact school participation and academic attainment.

METHOD

This narrative review assembles research from both the psychiatry and education literature. It examines stage 0 to stage 1b of the clinical staging model and links the risk states and early symptoms to evidence about the academic success of young people in high school.

RESULTS

In accordance with the clinical staging model and evidence from education literature, childhood trauma and parental mental illness can impact school engagement and academic progress. Sleep disturbance can result in academic failure. Undifferentiated depression and anxiety can increase the risk for school dropout. Subthreshold psychosis and hypomanic states are associated with functional impairment and high rates of Not in Employment, Education, or Training (NEET) but are not recognized in the education literature.

CONCLUSION

Risk markers for emerging mental ill health can be identified in education research and demonstrate an impact on a student's success in high school. Clear referral protocols need to be embedded into school life to reduce risk of progression to later stages of illness and support school participation and success.

Advances in early identification of children and adolescents at risk for psychiatric illness

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Childhood and adolescence are a crucial time window for the early identification of perspectival risk for adult psychopathology. This article reviews current advances in the field.

RECENT FINDINGS

Converging developmentally focused and predictive approaches are rapidly expanding in the field of early identification of children and adolescents at risk for psychiatric illness. Although the former emphasizes early phenotypic trajectories emerging in childhood and adolescence, the latter operate in terms of clinical risk staging. Decisive advances in the field include the metaanalytical evidence of the predictive value of clinical high-risk criteria in childhood-adolescence; the systematization of premorbid manifestations of psychotic vulnerability and bipolar prodromes; the corroboration of certain sets of anomalous subjective experiences as transdiagnostic index of familial genetic risk (i.e., basic symptoms) and early developmental expression of schizophrenia spectrum vulnerability (i.e., self-disorders).

SUMMARY

Childhood phenotypic manifestations of liability to mental disorders are often cooccurrent and undergo a plastic, heterotypic modification along the transition to adolescence. In general, they represent epiphenomenic flags of a broad vulnerability for the subsequent structuration of mental illness. This perspective coheres with the p-factor model of psychopathology and complements the clinical staging model which informs the early detection paradigm of severe mental disorders.

White Matter Connectivity in Youth at Risk for Serious Mental Illness: A Longitudinal Analysis

Longitudinal changes in white matter connectivity were assessed in a sample of youth at-risk for serious mental illness (n=183; age 12-25). Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) was acquired at baseline and 12 months from youth recruited across two sites and classified as healthy controls (n=36), familial risk (n=30), mild-symptoms (n=41), attenuated syndromes (n=70), or transition (n=9) based on clinical assessments. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) values were derived for the whole brain white matter, forceps minor, anterior cingulate, anterior thalamic radiations, inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus, superior longitudinal fasciculus, and uncinate fasciculus. MANCOVA analysis controlling for site, sex, and age showed no significant group differences in FA and MD at baseline or at 12 months. Linear mixed effects analysis showed a significant effect for time for most white matter tracts, but no effect for group, or group by time interaction. Transdiagnostic risk groups have similar profiles of WM connectivity and similar rates of change over time.

Psychosis Risk and Development: What Do We Know From Population-Based Studies?

Recent years have seen an advent in population-based studies in children, adolescents, and adults that examine the prevalence, etiology, and developmental trajectories of diverse subclinical psychopathological symptoms that pose a risk for the later development of severe mental illnesses. It is increasingly recognized that most categorically defined psychiatric disorders occur on a spectrum or continuum, show high heterogeneity and symptom overlap, and share genetic and environmental risk factors. We discuss neurodevelopmental underpinnings of psychosis spectrum symptoms and review brain morphometric and functional alterations as well as genetic liability for psychosis in individuals experiencing psychotic symptoms (PSs) in the general population. With regard to brain structure and function, findings of qualitatively similar alterations in individuals experiencing subthreshold PSs and individuals with overt psychotic disorders support the notion of a psychosis continuum. However, genetic and epidemiological studies have emphasized the overlap of PSs and other psychiatric illnesses. In particular, PSs during adolescence appear to be a nonspecific precursor of different psychopathological outcomes. Given the evidence presented in this review, we argue that findings from population-based studies are appropriate to guide policy-making to further emphasize public health efforts. Broadly accessible mental health programs are promising to make a difference in the field of adolescent mental health. However, the specific efficacy of these programs warrants further study, and caution is advised to not overpathologize potentially transient occurrence of mental health problems.

Risk Calculators in Bipolar Disorder: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Early recognition of bipolar disorder improves the prognosis and decreases the burden of the disease. However, there is a significant delay in diagnosis. Multiple risk factors for bipolar disorder have been identified and a population at high-risk for the disorder has been more precisely defined. These advances have allowed the development of risk calculators to predict individual risk of conversion to bipolar disorder. This review aims to identify the risk calculators for bipolar disorder and assess their clinical applicability.

METHODS

A systematic review of original studies on the development of risk calculators in bipolar disorder was performed. The studies' quality was evaluated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Form for Cohort Studies and according to recommendations of the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis Initiative.

RESULTS

Three studies met the inclusion criteria; one developed a risk calculator of conversion from major depressive episode to bipolar disorder; one of conversion to new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in offspring of parents with bipolar disorder; and the last one of conversion in youths with bipolar disorder not-otherwise-specified.

CONCLUSIONS

The calculators reviewed in this article present good discrimination power for bipolar disorder, although future replication and validation of the models is needed.

The Psychopathology and Neuroanatomical Markers of Depression in Early Psychosis

Depression frequently occurs in first-episode psychosis (FEP) and predicts longer-term negative outcomes. It is possible that this depression is seen primarily in a distinct subgroup, which if identified could allow targeted treatments. We hypothesize that patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) and comorbid depression would be identifiable by symptoms and neuroanatomical features similar to those seen in recent-onset depression (ROD). Data were extracted from the multisite PRONIA study: 154 ROP patients (FEP within 3 months of treatment onset), of whom 83 were depressed (ROP+D) and 71 who were not depressed (ROP-D), 146 ROD patients, and 265 healthy controls (HC). Analyses included a (1) principal component analysis that established the similar symptom structure of depression in ROD and ROP+D, (2) supervised machine learning (ML) classification with repeated nested cross-validation based on depressive symptoms separating ROD vs ROP+D, which achieved a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 51%, and (3) neuroanatomical ML-based classification, using regions of interest generated from ROD subjects, which identified BAC of 50% (no better than chance) for separation of ROP+D vs ROP-D. We conclude that depression at a symptom level is broadly similar with or without psychosis status in recent-onset disorders; however, this is not driven by a separable depressed subgroup in FEP. Depression may be intrinsic to early stages of psychotic disorder, and thus treating depression could produce widespread benefit.

Transdiagnostic clinical staging in youth mental health: a first international consensus statement

Recognizing that current frameworks for classification and treatment in psychiatry are inadequate, particularly for use in young people and early intervention services, transdiagnostic clinical staging models have gained prominence. These models aim to identify where individuals lie along a continuum of illness, to improve treatment selection and to better understand patterns of illness continuity, discontinuity and aetiopathogenesis. All of these factors are particularly relevant to help-seeking and mental health needs experienced during the peak age range of onset, namely the adolescent and young adult developmental periods (i.e., ages 12-25 years). To date, progressive stages in transdiagnostic models have typically been defined by traditional symptom sets that distinguish "sub-threshold" from "threshold-level" disorders, even though both require clinical assessment and potential interventions. Here, we argue that staging models must go beyond illness progression to capture additional dimensions of illness extension as evidenced by emergence of mental or physical comorbidity/complexity or a marked change in a linked biological construct. To develop further consensus in this nascent field, we articulate principles and assumptions underpinning transdiagnostic clinical staging in youth mental health, how these models can be operationalized, and the implications of these arguments for research and development of new service systems. We then propose an agenda for the coming decade, including knowledge gaps, the need for multi-stakeholder input, and a collaborative international process for advancing both science and implementation.

Study Protocol for a Prospective Longitudinal Cohort Study to Identify Proteomic Predictors of Pluripotent Risk for Mental Illness: The Seoul Pluripotent Risk for Mental Illness Study

BACKGROUND

The Seoul Pluripotent Risk for Mental Illness (SPRIM) study was designed to identify predictors leading to mental illness in help-seeking individuals by securing sufficient statistical power through transdiagnostic approaches. The SPRIM study aims to examine the clinical characteristics of high-risk individuals for mental illness and to identify proteomic biomarkers that can predict the onset of mental illness.

METHODS

This paper describes the study protocol of the SPRIM study. We aim to recruit 150 participants who meet the criteria for high risk for major mental illness, 150 patients with major psychiatric disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder), and 50 matched healthy control subjects for 2 years. Clinical evaluations, self-report measures, and proteomic analyses will be implemented. The assessment points are at baseline, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study, we introduced the study protocol of the SPRIM study, which is the first prospective cohort study of transdiagnostic high-risk concepts using proteomic biomarkers. This study has a paradigm that encompasses various diseases without aiming at predicting and preventing the development of a specific mental illness in help-seeking individuals. The transdiagnostic high-risk concept could be extended to provide a perspective for people with various psychopathological tendencies below a threshold, such that they do not meet the existing diagnostic criteria of mental illnesses, to determine what may lead them to a specific disease and help identify appropriate preventative interventions.

Group Cognitive Behavioral Analysis System of Psychotherapy (CBASP): A Pilot Study for Bipolar Depression

OBJECTIVES

Cognitive Behavioral Analysis System of Psychotherapy (CBASP) is an individually administered treatment model designed specifically for Persistent Depression however bipolar patients have traditionally been excluded from CBASP studies. There is a perception that bipolar depression will be harder to treat and requires a unique psychological approach. This pilot study reports on the feasibility of administering the same 20-week manualized group CBASP therapy with bipolar patients currently in a depressive episode.

METHODS

This non-randomized, single-arm prospective pilot study, reports on an a posteriori exploration of benefits to bipolar depressed patients (n=26) of the same 20-week group CBASP intervention administered to unipolar depressed patients (n=81). The clinical trial for the initial phase examining benefits of the manualized 20-week group CBASP intervention with unipolar patients was registered with the ISRCTN registry, study ID: ISRCTN95149444. Results reported here include mixed ANOVA analyses, across group treatment models and diagnostic categories. Changes over time in self-reported depressive symptoms (Inventory of Depressive Symptoms -IDS-SR), self-reported social functioning, interpersonal problems and interpersonal dispositions are documented for all patients. An exploratory longitudinal latent class analysis was used to examine patients' trajectories of improvement in depressive symptoms. Finally, the best predictors of change in reported depressive symptoms were explored with a logistic regression for all patients.

RESULTS

Improvements in depressive symptoms and in social functioning over time were significant for all patients with bipolar patients trending towards a greater improvement in depressive symptoms after controlling for baseline differences. An exploratory Latent Class Analysis identified two different treatment trajectories for the entire sample: 1) moderate to severely depressed patients who improved significantly (49%) and 2) severely depressed patients who did not improve (51%). The best predictors of non-response to group therapy include high baseline problems in social functioning and low rates of self-reported Perceived Improvements in overall health.

CONCLUSION

Bipolar patients in a depressive episode appear to benefit from the same 20-week group CBASP model designed originally for the treatment of Persistent Depressive Disorder. Bipolar patients seem more easily mobilized both during and outside of group therapy sessions and report more interpersonal confidence and more agency than unipolar depressed patients.

Clinical staging for youth at-risk for serious mental illness

AIM

The first aim of this project was to identify a sample of youth who met different stages of risk for the development of a serious mental illness (SMI) based on a published clinical staging model. The second aim was to determine whether participants allocated to the different stages were a good fit to the model by comparing these groups on a range of clinical measures.

METHODS

This two-site longitudinal study recruited 243 youth, ages 12 to 25. The sample included (a) 42 healthy controls, (b) 43 non-help seeking individuals with no mental illness but with some risk of SMI, such as having a first-degree relative with a SMI (stage 0), (c) 52 help-seeking youth experiencing distress and possibly mild symptoms of anxiety or depression (stage 1a) and (d) 108 youth with attenuated symptoms of SMI, such as bipolar disorder or psychosis (stage 1b). Participants completed a range of measures assessing depression, anxiety, mania, suicide ideation, attenuated psychotic symptoms, negative symptoms, anhedonia and beliefs about oneself.

RESULTS

There were no clinical differences between HCs and participants in stage 0. For most of the clinical measures, participants in stage 1b had more severe ratings than participants in stages 1a and 0 and HCs; those in stage 1a had more severe ratings than HCs and stage 0 participants.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the staging process used to allocate participants to various stages is a good fit. That is, the clinical ratings followed an ordering effect consistent with that hypothesized in the staging model.

The Critical Need for Help-Seeking Controls in Clinical High-Risk Research

Despite rapidly growing knowledge of the clinical high-risk (CHR) state for psychosis, the vast majority of case-control studies have relied on healthy volunteers as a reference point for drawing inferences about the CHR construct. Researchers have long recognized that results generated from this design are limited by significant interpretive concerns, yet little attention has been given to how these concerns affect the growing field of CHR research. We argue that overreliance on healthy controls in CHR research threatens the validity of inferences concerning group differences, hinders advances in understanding the development of psychosis, and limits clinical progress. We suggest that the combined use of healthy and help-seeking (i.e., psychiatric) controls is a necessary step for the next generation of CHR research. We then evaluate methods for help-seeking control studies, identify the available CHR studies that have used such designs, discuss select findings in this literature, and offer recommendations for research.

What Would Digital Early Intervention for Bipolar Disorder Look Like? Theoretical and Translational Considerations for Future Therapies

There are growing calls for the development of early intervention/preventive interventions for young people identified to be at risk of bipolar disorder (BD), and digital delivery appears to be a strong candidate delivery method. To date, no such interventions exist, and the aim of this perspective paper is to advance the literature by reviewing theoretical issues related to early intervention in BD and introducing a framework for design of feasible, acceptable, and effective online psychosocial interventions for this population. It is concluded that, by adopting an appropriate transdiagnostic and humanistic framework, and recognizing emerging tenets of digital psychotherapy development, testable online interventions for young people at risk of BD are within reach.