Isoprenoid emissions from Schima superba and Cunninghamia lanceolata: Their responses to elevated temperature by two warming facilities

Isoprenoids (including isoprene (ISO) and monoterpenes (MTs)) are the majority of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) which are important carbon-containing secondary metabolites biosynthesized by organisms, especially plant in terrestrial ecosystem. Results of the warming effects on isoprenoid emissions vary within species and warming facilities, and thus conclusions remain controversial. In this study, two typical subtropical tree species seedlings of Schima superba and Cunninghamia lanceolata were cultivated under three conditions, namely no warming (CK) and two warming facilities (with infrared radiators (IR) and heating wires (HW)) in open top chamber (OTC), and the isoprenoid emissions were measured with preconcentor-GC-MS system after warming for one, two and four months. The results showed that the isoprenoid emissions from S. superba and C. lanceolata exhibited uniformity in response to two warming facilities. IR and HW both stimulated isoprenoid emissions in two plants after one month of treatment, with increased ratios of 16.3 % and 72.5 % for S. superba, and 2.47 and 5.96 times for C. lanceolata. However, the emissions were suppressed after four months, with more pronounced effect for HW. The variation in isoprenoid emissions was primarily associated with the levels of Pn, Tr, monoterpene synthase (MTPS) activity. C. lanceolata predominantly released MTs (mainly α-pinene, α-terpene, γ-terpene, and limonene), with 39.7 % to 99.6 % of the total isoprenoid but ISO was only a very minor constituent. For S. superba, MTs constituted 24.7 % to 96.1 % of total isoprenoid. It is noteworthy that HW generated a greater disturbance to physiology activity in plants. Our study provided more comprehensive and more convincing support for integrating temperature-elevation experiments of different ecosystems and assessing response and adaptation of forest carbon cycle to global warming.

Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes

Worsening temperature extremes are among the most severe impacts of human-induced climate change. These extremes are often defined as rare events that exceed a specific percentile threshold within the distribution of daily maximum temperature. The percentile-based approach is chosen to follow regional and seasonal temperature variations so that extremes can occur globally and in all seasons, and frequently uses a running seasonal window to increase the sample size for the threshold calculation. Here, we show that running seasonal windows as used in many studies in recent years introduce a time-, region-, and dataset-depended bias that can lead to a striking underestimation of the expected extreme frequency. We reveal that this bias arises from artificially mixing the mean seasonal cycle into the extreme threshold and propose a simple solution that essentially eliminates it. We then use the corrected extreme frequency as reference to show that the bias also leads to an overestimation of future heatwave changes by as much as 30% in some regions. Based on these results we stress that running seasonal windows should not be used without correction for estimating extremes and their impacts.

The tolerance of a keystone ecosystem engineer to extreme heat stress is hampered by microplastic leachates

Plastic pollution and ongoing climatic changes exert considerable pressure on coastal ecosystems. Unravelling the combined effects of these two threats is essential to management and conservation actions to reduce the overall environmental risks. We assessed the capacity of a coastal ecosystem engineer, the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, to cope with various levels of aerial heat stress (20, 25, 30 and 35°C) after an exposure to substances leached from beached and virgin low-density polyethylene pellets. Our results revealed a significant interaction between temperature and plastic leachates on mussel survival rates. Specifically, microplastic leachates had no effect on mussel survival at 20, 25 and 30°C. In turn, mussel survival rates significantly decreased at 35°C, and this decrease was even more significant following an exposure to leachates from beached pellets; these pellets had a higher concentration of additives compared to the virgin ones, potentially causing a bioenergetic imbalance. Our results stress the importance of adopting integrated approaches combining the effects of multiple environmental threats on key marine species to understand and mitigate their potential synergistic effects on ecosystem dynamics and resilience in the face of the changing environment.

Coupling heat wave and wildfire occurrence across multiple ecoregions within a Eurasia longitudinal gradient

Understanding the relationship between heat wave occurrence and wildfire spread represents a key priority in global change studies due to the significant threats posed on natural ecosystems and society. Previous studies have not explored the spatial and temporal mechanism underlying the relationship between heat waves and wildfires occurrence, especially over large geographical regions. This study seeks to investigate such a relationship with a focus on 37 ecoregions within a Eurasia longitudinal gradient. The analysis is based on the wildfire dataset provided by the GlobFire Final Fire Event Detection and the meteorological dataset ERA5-land from Copernicus Climate service. In both cases we focused on the 2001-2019 timeframe. By means of a 12 km square grid, three wildfire metrics, i.e., density, seasonality, and severity of wildfires, were computed as proxy of fire regime. Heat waves were also characterized in terms of periods, duration, and intensity for the same period. Statistical tests were performed to evaluate the different patterns of heat wave and wildfire occurrence in the 37 ecoregions within the study area. By using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) we modeled the spatial varying relationships between heat wave characteristics and wildfire metrics. As expected, our results suggest that the 37 ecoregions identified within the Eurasia longitudinal gradient differ in terms of fire regimes. However, the occurrence of heat waves did not show significant differences among ecoregions, but a more evident variability in terms of relationship between fire regime metrics and heat waves within the study area. The outcome of the GWR analysis allowed us to identify the spatial locations (i.e., hotspot areas) where the relationship between heat waves and wildfires is positive and significant. Hence, in hotspots the presence of heat waves can be seen as a driver of wildfire occurrence in forest and steppe ecosystems. The findings from this study could contribute to a more comprehensive assessment of wildfire patterns in this geographical region, thus supporting cross-regional prevention strategies for disaster risk mitigation.

Demographic consequences of an extreme heat wave are mitigated by spatial heterogeneity in an annual monkeyflower

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, but the demographic and evolutionary consequences of heat waves are rarely investigated in herbaceous plant species. We examine the consequences of a short but extreme heat wave in Oregon populations of the common yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus) by leveraging a common garden experiment planted with range-wide populations and observational studies of 11 local populations. In the common garden, 89% of seedlings died during the heat wave including >96% of seedlings from geographically local populations. Some populations from hotter and drier environments had higher fitness, however, others from comparable environments performed poorly. Observational studies of local natural populations drastically differed in the consequences of the heat wave-one population was completely extirpated and nearly half had a >50% decrease in fitness. However, a few populations had greater fitness during the heat wave year. Differences in mortality corresponded to the impact of the heat wave on soil moisture-retention of soil moisture throughout the heat wave led to greater survivorship. Our results suggest that not all populations experience the same intensity or degree of mortality during extreme events and such heterogeneity could be important for genetic rescue or to facilitate the distribution of adaptive variants throughout the region.

Proline Enhances Resistance and Recovery of Oilseed Rape after a Simulated Prolonged Drought

This study was carried out to evaluate the effect of exogenous proline on the growth, biochemical responses, and plant recovery of drought-stressed oilseed rape plants after renewed irrigation. The experiment was conducted under controlled laboratory conditions. After 21 days of cultivation, 3-4 leaf stage seedlings were sprayed with proline (1 mM), then subjected to prolonged drought stress for 8 days to achieve a severe water deficit, next, irrigation was resumed and recovery was assessed after 4 days. The results show that exogenous application of proline reduced the drought-induced growth inhibition of seedlings while maintaining relative water content (RWC) and growth parameters closer to those of irrigated plants. Proline had a positive effect on chlorophyll accumulation and membrane permeability while decreasing ethylene, H₂O₂, and MDA levels. Moreover, after 4 days of recovery, the H₂O₂ content of the proline-treated plants was significantly lower (2-fold) and the MDA content was close to that of continuously irrigated plants. Thus, all these biochemical reactions influenced plant survival: after drought + proline treatment, the number of surviving plants was two times higher than that of drought-treated plants. The findings show that exogenous proline has antioxidant, osmotic, and growth-promoting properties that improve the drought tolerance of winter oilseed rape plants and is, therefore, beneficial for drought adaptation in oilseed rape.

Spatiotemporal variability characteristics of extreme climate events in Xinjiang during 1960-2019

Under the global warming, it is particularly important to explore the response of extreme climate to global climate change over the arid regions. Based on daily temperature (maximum, minimum, and average) and precipitation data from meteorological stations in Xinjiang, China, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events via combining thin plate smoothing spline function interpolation, Sen's slope, and Mann-Kendall test. Our results showed that during 1960-2019, the extreme low temperature index of frost days (FD), icing days (ID), cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), and cold speel duration index (CSDI) all showed the downward trend to varying degrees, and the extreme high temperature index of summer days (SD25), warm days (TX90p), warm night (TN90p), and warm speel duration index (WSDI) all showed an upward trend to varying degrees, and the extreme low temperature index of high altitude mountains decreases more than that of the basin and plains. In addition, all the extreme temperature indices are closely related to the annual average temperature in Xinjiang (R > 0.6). Among the extreme precipitation indices, except for the consecutive dry days (CDD), the other extreme precipitation indices showed increasing trends to different degrees, but the changes in extreme precipitation in Xinjiang were mainly manifested by the increase of heavy precipitation in a short period (the increase of heavy precipitation and extreme heavy precipitation was the largest, 44.8 mm/10a and 17.6 mm/10a, respectively) and spatially concentrated in the Ili River and Altai Mountains in northern Xinjiang. Meanwhile, annual precipitation was positively correlated with the extreme precipitation index (R > 0.4), except for the CDD. This study provides theoretical support for the prevention and control of natural disasters in the dry zone.

The extreme heat wave of July-August 2021 in the Athens urban area (Greece): Atmospheric and human-biometeorological analysis exploiting ultra-high resolution numerical modeling and the local climate zone framework

Greece was affected by a prolonged and extreme heat wave (HW) event (July 28-August 05) during the abnormally hot summer of 2021, with the maximum temperature in Athens, the capital of the country, reaching up to 43.9 °C in the city center. This observation corresponds to the second highest maximum temperature recorded since 1900, based on the historical temperature time series of the National Observatory of Athens weather station at Thissio. In the present study, a multi-scale numerical modeling system is used to analyze the urban climate and thermal bioclimate in the Athens urban area (AUA) in the course of the HW event, as well as during 3 days prior to the heat wave and 3 days after the episode. The system consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, the advanced urban scheme BEP/BEM (Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model) and the human-biometeorological model RayMan Pro, and incorporates the local climate zone (LCZ) classification scheme. The system's validation results demonstrated a robust modeling set-up, characterized by high capability in capturing the observed magnitude and diurnal variation of the urban meteorological and heat stress conditions. The analysis of two- and three-dimensional fields of near-surface air temperature, humidity and wind unraveled the interplay of geographical factors (surface relief and proximity to the sea), background atmospheric circulations (Etesians and sea breeze) and HW-related synoptic forcing with the AUA's urban form. These interactions had a significant impact on the LCZs heat stress responsiveness, expressed using the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), between different regions of the study area, as well as at inter- and intra-LCZ level (statistically significant differences at 95 % confidence interval), providing thus, urban design and health-related implications that can be exploited in human thermal discomfort mitigation strategies in AUA.

Pathways for adapting tourism to climate change in an urban destination - Evidences based on thermal conditions for the Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal)

The narrative of sustainable tourism transition in a context of adaptation to climate change is very relevant internationally. The availability and sharing of knowledge and information is a basic requirement for the successful planning of the tourism sector regarding this phenomenon. Planning adaptation in the urban tourism sector is widely regarded as a collectively-based process. However, collaborative planning is far from being the standard. This study reports the results of a Modified Delphi Approach (MDA) among experts about the future of urban tourism in a context of adaptation to climate change in Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal), considering the outdoor thermal conditions perspective. Using an expert panel, the study gathered their opinions to analyze the degrees of responsibility of the main sectorial entities at different territorial levels, the conditions of action in the transformation agenda and the measures to be implemented in the adaptation and mitigation process - according to priority and time horizon. Two rounds were carried out to apply the methodology between January and April 2021. The first questionnaire had the participation of 47 professionals. 34 out of the 47 professionals of the 1st round participated in the second questionnaire. The evidence from different stakeholders demonstrates that there is an ambiguous process of understanding the problem, information needs, and a weak interaction between actors - resources - tasks. The effectiveness and efficiency of collaborative planning and outlined goals by 2050 for adaptation of urban tourism sector to climate change can be hampered. Experts consider the creation of structural (tangible) measures to be fundamental. Among other results, it was found that most participants consider that the intervention is dependent on the guidelines issued by the government and municipal councils when it comes to defining a proposal for adapting the urban tourism sector to climate change. Despite this, the options for more sustainable practices must be based on three axes: (i) solutions based on the energy sector in the hotel industry (e.g., energy certification, prioritization of the use of renewable energy); (ii) improvement and expansion of green infrastructure for tourist enjoyment [e.g., creation of green areas (small additional pockets), namely in the center of Porto; and pedestrianization of central areas of the city] and (iii) network participation through the collaboration of various stakeholders with relevance in tourism and urban planning.

A Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Local Summer Climate Suitability under Global Warming: A Case Study in Zhejiang Province

In the context of global warming, how to measure summer climate suitability at a local scale is important for meteorological services. Considering meteorological and ecological conditions, body comfort, and the atmospheric environment, an assessment method for summer climate suitability for Zhejiang Province is proposed. In this paper, a summer suitable index (SSI) for Zhejiang is calculated, including four secondary indices: a summer cool index (SCI), a comfort days index (CDI), a good air days index (GADI) and a vegetation cover index (VCI). Using a local evaluation criterion, summer climate suitable areas are distinguished objectively according to the SSI. The results show that especially suitable regions account for 4.97% of Zhejiang Province, very suitable regions account for 22.2%, suitable regions account for 39.58%, and general regions account for 33.25%. The summer climate suitable areas are located mainly in high mountains and hills and coastal island areas while plain areas cannot be considered a suitable destination for summer tourism. By comparison and discussion, the SSI is demonstrated to capture summer climate suitability well. In contrast to a fixed evaluation index, benchmark values obtained for the SSI depend on the local climate and the index is straightforward to apply.

Heat-Related Mortality in Two Regions of Poland: Focus on Urban and Rural Areas during the Most Severe and Long-Lasting Heatwaves

The vast majority of studies on heat-related mortality are focused on large cities. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap and to estimate the impact of high temperatures on the risk of death in smaller towns and villages. The results show that increased mortality is not only a problem in large cities. The risk of death, although usually slightly lower than in highly populated areas, may be higher for the age-related risk group. At temperatures above 35 °C, it may exceed 1.3 in smaller towns and even 1.6 in villages. The increase in mortality during five selected heat waves of high intensity and long duration was also studied for two regions of Poland: Małopolska and Wielkopolska. Towns with a population of less than 10,000 in Małopolska region, during the 2006 heatwave, experienced an increase in the number of deaths by as much as 18%. At the same time in the largest city of Małopolska-Kraków, the death toll rose by 4%. This paper also presents some differences between regions in terms of the impact of heat waves: in the lowland region of Wielkopolska, the mortality rate is generally higher than in the upland region of Małopolska.

The 2018 European heatwave led to stem dehydration but not to consistent growth reductions in forests

Heatwaves exert disproportionately strong and sometimes irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems. These impacts remain poorly understood at the tree and species level and across large spatial scales. Here, we investigate the effects of the record-breaking 2018 European heatwave on tree growth and tree water status using a collection of high-temporal resolution dendrometer data from 21 species across 53 sites. Relative to the two preceding years, annual stem growth was not consistently reduced by the 2018 heatwave but stems experienced twice the temporary shrinkage due to depletion of water reserves. Conifer species were less capable of rehydrating overnight than broadleaves across gradients of soil and atmospheric drought, suggesting less resilience toward transient stress. In particular, Norway spruce and Scots pine experienced extensive stem dehydration. Our high-resolution dendrometer network was suitable to disentangle the effects of a severe heatwave on tree growth and desiccation at large-spatial scales in situ, and provided insights on which species may be more vulnerable to climate extremes.

Adaptive responses to temperature and precipitation variation at the early-life stages of Pinus sylvestris

Early-stage fitness variation has been seldom evaluated at broad scales in forest tree species, despite the long tradition of studying climate-driven intraspecific genetic variation. In this study, we evaluated the role of climate in driving patterns of population differentiation at early-life stages in Pinus sylvestris and explored the fitness and growth consequences of seed transfer within the species range. We monitored seedling emergence, survival and growth over a 2-yr period in a multi-site common garden experiment which included 18 European populations and spanned 25° in latitude and 1700 m in elevation. Climate-fitness functions showed that populations exhibited higher seedling survival and growth at temperatures similar to their home environment, which is consistent with local adaptation. Northern populations experienced lower survival and growth at warmer sites, contrary to previous studies on later life stages. Seed mass was higher in populations from warmer areas and was positively associated with survival and growth at more southern sites. Finally, we did not detect a survival-growth trade-off; on the contrary, bigger seedlings exhibited higher survival probabilities under most climatic conditions. In conclusion, our results reveal that contrasting temperature regimes have played an important role in driving the divergent evolution of P. sylvestris populations at early-life stages.

Increased high-temperature extremes and associated population exposure in Africa by the mid-21st century

Previous studies warned that heat extremes are likely to intensify and frequently occur in the future due to climate change. Apart from changing climate, the population's size and distribution contribute to the total changes in the population exposed to heat extremes. The present study uses the ensemble mean of global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) and population projection to assess the future changes in high-temperature extremes and exposure to the population by the middle of this century (2041-2060) in Africa compared to the recent climate taken from 1991 to 2010. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are used. Changes in population exposure and its contributors are quantified at continental and for various sub-regions. The intensity of high-temperature extremes is anticipated to escalate between 0.25 to 1.8 °C and 0.6 to 4 °C under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, with Sahara and West Southern Africa projected to warm faster than the rest of the regions. On average, warm days' frequency is also expected to upsurge under SSP2-4.5 (26-59%) and SSP5-8.5 (30-69%) relative to the recent climate. By the mid-21st century, continental population exposure is expected to upsurge by ~25% (28%) of the reference period under SSP2-4.5|SSP2 (SSP5-8.5|SSP5). The highest increase in exposure is expected in most parts of West Africa (WAF), followed by East Africa. The projected changes in continental exposure (~353.6 million person-days under SSP2-4.5|SSP2 and ~401.4 million person-days under SSP5-8.5|SSP5) are mainly due to the interaction effect. However, the climate's influence is more than the population, especially for WAF, South-East Africa and East Southern Africa. The study findings are vital for climate change adaptation.

Climate change and neurodegenerative diseases

The climate change induced global warming, and in particular the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, have been linked to health problems. Among them, scientific works have been reporting an increased incidence of neurological diseases, encompassing also neurodegenerative ones, such as Dementia of Alzheimer's type, Parkinson's Disease, and Motor Neuron Diseases. Although the increase in prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases is well documented by literature reports, the link between global warming and the enhanced prevalence of such diseases remains elusive. This is the main theme of our work, which aims to examine the connection between high temperature exposure and neurodegenerative diseases. Firstly, we evaluate the influence of high temperatures exposure on the pathophysiology of these disorders. Secondly, we discuss its effects on the thermoregulation, already compromised in affected patients, and its interference with processes of excitotoxicity, oxidative stress and neuroinflammation, all of them related with neurodegeneration. Finally, we investigate chronic versus acute stressors on body warming, and put forward a possible interpretation of the beneficial or detrimental effects on the brain, which is responsible for the incidence or progression of neurological disorders.

Urban Growth and Heat in Tropical Climates

This research describes the change in temperatures across approximately 270 tropical cities from 1960 to 2020 with a focus on urban warming. It associates urban growth indicators with temperature variations in tropical climate zones (tropical rainforest, tropical monsoon, and tropical wet-dry savanna). Our findings demonstrate that over time while temperatures have increased across the tropics, urban residents have experienced higher temperatures (minimum and maximum) than those living outside of cities. Moreover, in certain tropical zones, over the study period, temperatures have risen faster in urban areas than the background (non-urban) temperatures. The results also suggest that with continuing climate change and urban growth, temperatures will continue to rise at higher than background levels in tropical cities unless mitigation measures are implemented. Several fundamental characteristics of urban growth including population size, population density, infrastructure and urban land use patterns are factors associated with variations in temperatures. We find evidence that dense urban forms (compact residential and industrial developments) are associated with higher temperatures and population density is a better predictor of variation in temperatures than either urban population size or infrastructure in most tropic climate zones. Infrastructure, however, is a better predictor of temperature increases in wet-dry savanna tropical climates than population density. There are a number of potential mitigation measures available to urban managers to address heat. We focus on ecological services, but whether these services can address the projected increasing heat levels is unclear. More local research is necessary to untangle the various contributions to increasing heat in cities and evaluate whether these applications can be effective to cool tropical cities as temperature continue to rise. Our methods include combining several different datasets to identify differences in daily, seasonal, and annual maximum and minimum temperatures.

Three distinct atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high temperature extremes in South Korea

The negative impact of extreme high-temperature days (EHDs) on people’s livelihood has increased over the past decades. Therefore, an improved understanding of the fundamental mechanisms of EHDs is imperative to mitigate this impact. Herein, we classify the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with EHDs that occurred in South Korea from 1982 to 2018 using a self-organizing map (SOM) and investigate the dynamic mechanism for each cluster pattern through composite analysis. A common feature of all SOM clusters is the positive geopotential height (GPH) anomaly over the Korean Peninsula, which provides favorable conditions for EHDs through adiabatic warming caused by anomalous downward motion. Results show that Cluster 1 (C1) is related to the eastward-propagating wave train in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere, while Cluster 2 (C2) and 3 (C3) are influenced by a northward-propagating wave train forced by enhanced convection in the subtropical western North Pacific (WNP). Compared to C2, C3 exhibits strong and eastward-extended enhanced convection over the subtropical WNP, which generates an anomalous high-pressure system over the southern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, reinforcing EHDs via atmospheric blocking. Our results can contribute to the understanding of East Asia climate variability because wave trains influence the climate dynamics of this region.

Early developmental stages of native populations of Ciona intestinalis under increased temperature are affected by local habitat history

Temperature modulates marine ectotherm physiology, influencing survival, abundance and species distribution. While native species could be susceptible to ocean warming, thermal tolerance might favour the spread of non-native species. Determining the success of invasive species in response to climate change is confounded by the cumulative, synergistic or antagonistic effects of environmental drivers, which vary at a geographical and temporal scale. Thus, an organism's acclimation or adaptive potential could play an important evolutionary role by enabling or conditioning species tolerance to stressful environmental conditions. We investigated developmental performance of early life stages of the ascidian Ciona intestinalis (derived from populations of anthropogenically impacted and control sites) to an extreme weather event (i.e. marine heatwave). Fertilization rate, embryo and larval development, settlement, metamorphosis success and juvenile heart rate were assessed as experimental endpoints. With the exception of fertilization and heart rates, temperature influenced all analysed endpoints. C. intestinalis derived from control sites were the most negatively affected by increased temperature conditions. By contrast, C. intestinalis from anthropogenically impacted sites showed a positive response to thermal stress, with a higher proportion of larvae development, settlement and metamorphosis success being observed under increased temperature conditions. No differences were observed for heart rates between sampled populations and experimental temperature conditions. Moreover, interaction between temperature and populations was statistically significant for embryo and larvae development, and metamorphosis. We hypothesize that selection resulting from anthropogenic forcing could shape stress resilience of species in their native range and subsequently confer advantageous traits underlying their invasive potential.

A Comparative Analysis of Different Future Weather Data for Building Energy Performance Simulation

The building energy performance pattern is predicted to be shifted in the future due to climate change. To analyze this phenomenon, there is an urgent need for reliable and robust future weather datasets. Several ways for estimating future climate projection and creating weather files exist. This paper attempts to comparatively analyze three tools for generating future weather datasets based on statistical downscaling (WeatherShift, Meteonorm, and CCWorldWeatherGen) with one based on dynamical downscaling (a future-typical meteorological year, created using a high-quality reginal climate model). Four weather datasets for the city of Rome are generated and applied to the energy simulation of a mono family house and an apartment block as representative building types of Italian residential building stock. The results show that morphed weather files have a relatively similar operation in predicting the future comfort and energy performance of the buildings. In addition, discrepancy between them and the dynamical downscaled weather file is revealed. The analysis shows that this comes not only from using different approaches for creating future weather datasets but also by the building type. Therefore, for finding climate resilient solutions for buildings, care should be taken in using different methods for developing future weather datasets, and regional and localized analysis becomes vital.

Effects of temperature on the behaviour and metabolism of an intertidal foraminifera and consequences for benthic ecosystem functioning

Heatwaves have increased in intensity, duration and frequency over the last decades due to climate change. Intertidal species, living in a highly variable environment, are likely to be exposed to such heatwaves since they can be emerged for more than 6 h during a tidal cycle. Little is known, however, on how temperature affects species traits (e.g. locomotion and behaviour) of slow-moving organisms such as benthic foraminifera (single-celled protists), which abound in marine sediments. Here, we examine how temperature influences motion-behaviour and metabolic traits of the dominant temperate foraminifera Haynesina germanica by exposing individuals to usual (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 °C) and extreme (high; i.e. 32, 34, 36 °C) temperature regimes. Our results show that individuals reduced their activity by up to 80% under high temperature regimes whereas they remained active under the temperatures they usually experience in the field. When exposed to a hyper-thermic stress (i.e. 36 °C), all individuals remained burrowed and the photosynthetic activity of their sequestered chloroplasts significantly decreased. Recovery experiments subsequently revealed that individuals initially exposed to a high thermal regime partially recovered when the hyper-thermic stress ceased. H. germanica contribution to surface sediment reworking substantially diminished from 10 mm³ indiv^-1 day^-1 (usual temperature) to 0 mm³ indiv^-1 day^-1 when individuals were exposed to high temperature regimes (i.e. above 32 °C). Given their role in sediment reworking and organic matter remineralisation, our results suggest that heatwaves may have profound long-lasting effects on the functioning of intertidal muddy ecosystems and some key biogeochemical cycles.

Exploring the Relationship between Rising Temperatures and the Number of Climate-Related Natural Disasters in China

Warming has strongly influenced the quantity and variability of natural disasters around the globe. This study aims to characterize the varying patterns between rising temperatures and climate-related natural disasters in China from 1951 to 2010. We examined the overall trend in the patterns of an 11-year cycle, and climate-related natural disaster responses to periods of rising and dropping temperature. We used Morlet wavelet analysis to determine the length of a temperature cycle period, and the arc elasticity coefficient to assess the number of climate-related natural disasters in response to the changing temperature. We found that: (1) the overall relationship between temperature and the number of climate-related natural disasters was positive; (2) however, on the cycle level, the pattern of climate-related natural disasters was found to be independent of temperature variation; (3) on the rise-drop level, temperature increases were associated with declines in the number of climate-related natural disasters. Moreover, as temperature decreased, the number of climate-related natural disasters increased substantially, such that temperature had a more considerable influence on the quantity of climate-related natural disasters during the temperature-drop period. Findings in this study can help enhance the dissemination of warning and mitigation efforts to combat natural disasters in the changing climate.

Heatwaves intensification in Australia: A consistent trajectory across past, present and future

Heatwaves are defined as unusually high temperature events that occur for at least three consecutive days with major impacts to human health, economy, agriculture and ecosystems. This paper investigates: 1) changes in heatwave characteristics such as peak temperature, number of events, frequency and duration over a past 67-year period in Australia; 2) projected changes in heatwave characteristics for this century in Queensland, northeast Australia; and 3) the avoided heatwave impacts of limiting global warming by 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C. The results reveal that heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration across Australia over the past 67 years, such intensification was particularly higher on recent decades. Downscaled future climate projections for Queensland suggest that heatwaves will further intensify over the current century. The projections also highlight that distinct climatic regions within Queensland may have different heatwave responses under global warming, where tropical and equatorial heatwaves appear to be more sensitive to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations than temperate and arid regions. The results offer new insights to support climate adaptation and mitigation at regional scales. These findings are already being used by health and emergency services to inform the development of statewide policies to mitigate heatwave impacts.

Role of Vegetation as a Mitigating Factor in the Urban Context

It is known that the urban environment amplifies the effects of climate change, sometimes with disastrous consequences that put people at risk. These aspects can be affected by urban vegetation and planting design but, while there are thousands of papers related to the effects of climate change, a relatively limited number of them are directly aimed at investigating the role of vegetation as a mitigating factor in the urban context. This paper focuses on reviewing the research on the role of urban vegetation in alleviating the adverse conditions of the urban environment in order to provide some practical guidelines to be applied by city planners. Through an analysis of the documents found in Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar using urban vegetation and climate change-related keywords we selected five major issues related to the urban environment: (1) particulate matter, (2) gaseous pollution, (3) noise pollution, (4) water runoff, (5) urban heat island effect. The analysis of existing knowledge reported here indicates that the roles of urban vegetation on the adverse effect of climate change could not be simply deemed positive or negative, because the role of urban green is also strongly linked to the structure, composition, and distribution of vegetation, as well as to the criteria used for management. Therefore, it could help to better understand the roles of urban green as a complex system and provide the foundation for future studies.

Transcriptome Analysis of Ophraella communa Male Reproductive Tract in Indirect Response to Elevated CO2 and Heat Wave

Increase in atmospheric CO₂ directly affects the insect physiology and behavior, and indirectly affects the herbivorous insects by affecting their hosts. The increase in atmospheric CO₂ is accompanied by an increase in temperature and heat waves. Ophraella communa LeSage is a natural enemy of Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common ragweed). The development and reproduction of this beetle is weakened upon eating common ragweed grown under stress conditions. As female behavior and physiology alter after mating, the reproductive tract of males is likely to modulate reproduction and development in this species. Herein, the transcriptional profiles of testes and accessory glands from male O. communa individuals feeding on common ragweed under conditions of high CO₂ concentration and heat waves and that grown under ambient CO₂ concentration were compared. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified between the same tissues from beetles fed on common ragweed grown under different stress conditions. There were 3, 2, 3, 1and 5 genes related to decomposition and transport of macromolecular substances, host location, stress response, reproduction, and poisonous food-utilization. No expected response was observed in the male reproductive tract, but some of the identified DEGs might control the development of the population. The results presented here should be helpful in guiding future studies on deciphering the indirect response of other organs to high CO₂ concentration and heat waves, as well as the functions of seminal fluid proteins in O. communa.

Assessing Changes in Characteristics of Hot Extremes Over India in a Warming Environment and their Driving Mechanisms

Change in hot extremes is one of the accepted evidence and also a global indicator of an anthropogenic climate change, which has serious environmental and economic impacts. In the present study, the India Meteorological Department gridded temperature data is used to characterize hot extremes over India in terms of frequency and intensity. Results provide compelling evidence that large parts of India, except the Indo-Gangetic plains, have experienced more occurrences of hot days (upsurge by 24.7%) having higher temperatures in the recent period (1976–2018), compared to the past (1951–1975), which suggests a shift in climate. Strong positive geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa over the northern parts of India, which dynamically produces subsidence and clear sky conditions along with reduced precipitable water and depleted soil moisture are identified to be the crucial factors responsible for an increase of hot extremes in recent decades. Furthermore, the preceding December-February Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are strongly connected with hot days frequency and the mechanism for the lag of several months is related to 3–4 months delayed response of Indian Ocean SSTs to El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Thus, post-Niño hot extremes over India can be potentially anticipated in advance and this will help society to prepare for such extremes.

Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes

Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960-2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade^-1) and intensity (~0.28 °C decade^-1) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios.

The impact of drought spells on forests depends on site conditions: The case of 2017 summer heat wave in southern Europe

A major component of climate change is an increase in temperature and precipitation variability. Over the last few decades, an increase in the frequency of extremely warm temperatures and drought severity has been observed across Europe. These warmer and drier conditions may reduce productivity and trigger compositional shifts in forest communities. However, we still lack a robust, biogeographical characterization of the negative impacts of climate extremes, such as droughts on forests. In this context, we investigated the impact of the 2017 summer drought on European forests. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used as a proxy of forest productivity and was related to the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, which accounts for the temperature effects of the climate water balance. The spatial pattern of NDVI reduction in 2017 was largely driven by the extremely warm summer for parts of the central and eastern Mediterranean Basin (Italian and Balkan Peninsulas). The vulnerability to the 2017 summer drought was heterogeneously distributed over Europe, and topographic factors buffered some of the negative impacts. Mediterranean forests dominated by oak species were the most negatively impacted, whereas Pinus pinaster was the most resilient species. The impact of drought on the NDVI decreased at high elevations and mainly on east and north-east facing slopes. We illustrate how an adequate characterization of the coupling between climate conditions and forest productivity (NDVI) allows the determination of the most vulnerable areas to drought. This approach could be widely used for other extreme climate events and when considering other spatially resolved proxies of forest growth and health.

Decreased thermal tolerance under recurrent heat stress conditions explains summer mass mortality of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis

Extreme events such as heat waves have increased in frequency and duration over the last decades. Under future climate scenarios, these discrete climatic events are expected to become even more recurrent and severe. Heat waves are particularly important on rocky intertidal shores, one of the most thermally variable and stressful habitats on the planet. Intertidal mussels, such as the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, are ecosystem engineers of global ecological and economic importance, that occasionally suffer mass mortalities. This study investigates the potential causes and consequences of a mass mortality event of M. edulis that occurred along the French coast of the eastern English Channel in summer 2018. We used an integrative, climatological and ecophysiological methodology based on three complementary approaches. We first showed that the observed mass mortality (representing 49 to 59% of the annual commercial value of local recreational and professional fisheries combined) occurred under relatively moderate heat wave conditions. This result indicates that M. edulis body temperature is controlled by non-climatic heat sources instead of climatic heat sources, as previously reported for intertidal gastropods. Using biomimetic loggers (i.e. 'robomussels'), we identified four periods of 5 to 6 consecutive days when M. edulis body temperatures consistently reached more than 30 °C, and occasionally more than 35 °C and even more than 40 °C. We subsequently reproduced these body temperature patterns in the laboratory to infer M. edulis thermal tolerance under conditions of repeated heat stress. We found that thermal tolerance consistently decreased with the number of successive daily exposures. These results are discussed in the context of an era of global change where heat events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, especially in the eastern English Channel where the low frequency of commercially exploitable mussels already questions both their ecological and commercial sustainability.

Asymmetrical Shift Toward Longer Dry Spells Associated with Warming Temperatures During Russian Summers

This study examines the changing behavior of summer dry spell duration in response to increasing air temperatures at 517 Russian stations during 1966-2010. We found that the frequency distribution of dry spell duration (as represented by histograms) is becoming skewed toward longer dry spells. This asymmetrical shift is accompanied by mean increases in dry spell duration. This asymmetry is also reflected in exponentially higher increasing rates of dry spell duration toward higher percentiles. Consequently, across Russia, summers have experienced significant increases in 7-day-or-longer dry spells (at 6.1%/°C of warming) and fewer occurrences of 3-day-or-shorter dry spells (at 2.4%/°C). This study suggests that hotter summers favor more frequent prolonged dry spells, exacerbating drought and heat wave conditions during Russian summers as air temperatures continue to rise.

Growth and photosynthetic responses in Brassica napus differ during stress and recovery periods when exposed to combined heat, drought and elevated CO2

This study was intended to investigate how an agronomically important crop Brassica napus will be able to cope with the combined impact of a heatwave (21/14 °C vs. 33/26 °C day/night) and drought under ambient or elevated CO₂ (800 vs. 400 μmol mol^-1) and to what degree their recovery will be ensured after the stress, when additional CO₂ is also removed. The obtained results revealed that, in the presence of an adequate water supply, B. napus performed well under heatwave conditions. However, drought fully negated all the advantages gained from hotter climate and led to a slower and incomplete recovery of gas exchange and retarded growth after the stress, regardless mitigating the effect of elevated CO₂ during the stress. The mechanism by which the elevated CO₂ diminished the adverse effect of a combined heat and drought stress on photosynthetic rate at saturating light (A_sat) was attributed to the improved plant water relations. However, it had little effect on the recovery of A_sat. In contrast, the mechanism by which photosynthesis was more impaired under the combination of heatwave and drought, compared to single drought treatment, was attributed mainly to the faster soil drying as well as faster and sharper decrease in stomatal conductance and subsequent in C_i/C_a. Keeping in mind that photosynthesis can acclimatize by downregulation to higher CO₂, the results of this study, showing a weak memory of mitigating the effect of elevated CO₂, highlight a potential risk of more intense and frequent heatwaves and droughts on B. napus.

Host biology and environmental variables differentially predict flea abundances for two rodent hosts in a plague-relevant system

While rodents frequently host ectoparasites that can vector zoonotic diseases, often little is known about their ectoparasite communities, even in places where hosts frequently interact with humans. Yosemite National Park is an area of high human-wildlife interaction and high potential zoonotic disease transfer. Nonetheless, relatively few studies have surveyed the flea communities on mammalian hosts in this area, and even fewer have characterized the environmental and host factors that predict infestation. We focused on two species, the alpine chipmunk (Tamias alpinus) and the lodgepole chipmunk (T. speciosus), which inhabit Yosemite and surrounding areas and can host fleas that vector plague. Because these hosts are exhibiting differential responses to environmental change, it is valuable to establish baselines for their flea communities before further changes occur. We surveyed fleas on these chipmunk hosts during three years (2013–2015), including in the year of a plague epizootic (2015), and documented significant inter-host differences in flea communities and changes across years. Flea abundance was associated with host traits including sex and fecal glucocorticoid metabolite levels. The average number of fleas per individual and the proportion of individuals carrying fleas increased across years for T. speciosus but not for T. alpinus. To better understand these patterns, we constructed models to identify environmental predictors of flea abundance for the two most common flea species, Ceratophyllus ciliatus mononis and Eumolpianus eumolpi. Results showed host-dependent differences in environmental predictors of flea abundance for E. eumolpi and C. ciliatus mononis, with notable ties to ambient temperature variation and elevation. These results provide insight into factors affecting flea abundance on two chipmunk species, which may be linked to changing climate and possible future plague epizootics.

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Tamias alpinus and T. speciosus host different numbers and communities of fleas.

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In both chipmunk species, male hosts carry more fleas.

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Glucocorticoids were negatively correlated with flea abundances in female hosts.

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Flea abundances on T. speciosus increased preceding a plague epizootic.

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Environmental and host traits predict flea abundances in species dependent manners.

Heat Stress Perception among Native and Migrant Workers in Italian Industries-Case Studies from the Construction and Agricultural Sectors

Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of hazard events such as heat waves, with important effects in several European regions. It is of importance to consider overall effects as well as specific impact on vulnerable population groups such as outdoor workers. The agricultural and construction sectors represent two strategic occupational fields that in relatively recent years involve an increasing number of migrant workers, and therefore require a better management of cultural aspects, that may interact with and impact on heat-related health risk. For this reason, the present study evaluated heat-stress perception and management among native and immigrant workers in Europe. As part of the EU’s Horizon 2020 HEAT-SHIELD project (grant agreement No. 668786), two agricultural and one construction companies, traditionally employing migrant workers, were evaluated with a questionnaire survey during the summer months of 2017. The data collected (104 case studies) were analyzed using descriptive statistics (Chi-squared tests) and the analysis of variance was performed with ANOVA test. From the results, migrant workers declared that work required greater effort than do native Italian workers (χ² = 17.1, p = 0.001) but reported less impact from heat on productivity (χ² = 10.6; p = 0.014) and thermal discomfort. In addition, migrant workers were mainly informed through written or oral communications, while native workers received information on heat-health issues through training courses. These findings are of importance for future information and mitigation actions to address socio-cultural gaps and reduce heat-stress vulnerability.

Comparative Transcriptome Analysis of Megacopta cribraria (Hemiptera: Plataspidae) in Response to High-Temperature Stress

Kudzu bug, Megacopta cribraria (Fabricius), is mainly distributed in southern China and has been considered an invasive species in the southeastern United States. Megacopta cribraria is a soybean pest with high-temperature resistance, but the molecular mechanisms underlying its thermal adaptation are largely unknown. Here, we performed comparative transcriptome analysis to unravel the molecular response of M. cribraria toward high-temperature stress. Following RNA-seq, we identified 93,959 assembled unigenes, 14,073 of which were annotated in M. cribraria transcriptome libraries. In addition, 127 differentially expressed unigenes (DEGs) were detected, 88 of them were significantly upregulated, whereas the remaining 39 genes were significantly downregulated. Functional classification revealed that the pathways of metabolic process, cellular processes, and single-organism processes were considered to be significantly enriched. In the COG classification, DEGs were mainly localized into O: post-translational modification, protein turnover, chaperone. Moreover, protein processing in endoplasmic reticulum and linoleic acid metabolism were significantly enriched among the 38 KEGG pathways. Further gene annotation analysis indicated that nine heat shock protein-related genes were significantly upregulated. Finally, five HSP DEGs were selected for real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction validation and demonstrated a similar upregulation trend with RNA-seq expression profiles. Taken altogether, these findings provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms of thermal adaptation in M. cribraria.

Evaluation of the Effect of Urban Redevelopment on Surface Urban Heat Islands

Climate change is a global challenge with multiple consequences. One of its impacts is the increase in heatwave frequency and intensity. The risk is higher for populations living in urban areas, where the highest temperatures are generally identified, due to the urban heat island effect. This phenomenon has recently been taken into account by local elected officials. As a result, developers have decided to use solutions in redevelopment projects to combat high temperatures in urban areas. Consequently, the objective is to study the land-surface temperature evolution of six main urban redevelopments in Lyon, France, from 2000 to 2017. Three of them (the Confluence, Kaplan, and Museum sites) were composed of industrial areas that have undergone major transformations and are now tertiary or residential areas. Two sites have been more lightly transformed, particularly by increasing vegetation to reduce heat stress and urban flooding (Dock and Garibaldi Street). Finally, the Groupama Stadium has been built into agricultural and wooded areas. Changes in vegetation cover (NDVI), water (MNDWI), and moisture (NDMI) content, built areas (NDBI) and bare soil (NDBaI) are also monitored. The results show that the Confluence and Kaplan sites were accompanied by a decrease in surface temperature and an increase in vegetation and moisture, whereas the Groupama Stadium displayed a rise in surface temperature and a decrease in vegetation. On the other hand, the Museum, Dock, and Garibaldi sites did not exhibit clear and uniform trends, although an increase in surface temperature was shown in some statistical tests. The disparity of the results shows the necessity to include a significant amount of vegetation during redevelopment operations in order to reduce heat stress.

Assessing Heat Waves over Greece Using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF)

Heat waves are considered one of the most noteworthy extreme events all over the world due to their crucial impacts on both society and the environment. For the present article, a relatively new heat wave index, which was primarily introduced for the study of extreme warming conditions over Australia (Excess Heat Factor (EHF, hereafter)), was applied over Greece (eastern Mediterranean) for a 55-year period in order to examine its applicability to a region with different climatic characteristics (compared to Australia) and its ability to define previous exceptional heat waves. The computation of the EHF index for the period 1958–2012 demonstrated that, during the warm period of the year (June, July, August, and September (JJAS)), Greece experiences approximately 20 days per year with positive anomalous conditions (EHF > 0) with positive statistically significant trends for all stations under study. Moreover, an average of 128 spells with a duration of 3 to 10 consecutive days with positive EHF values were found during the examined 55-year period. As the duration of the spell was extended, their frequency lessened. Finally, it was found that the EHF index not only detected, identified, and described efficiently the characteristics of the heat waves, but it also provided additional useful information regarding the impact of these abnormal warming conditions on the human ability to adapt to them.

Species-specific differences in water uptake depth of mature temperate trees vary with water availability in the soil

Temperate tree species differ in their physiological sensitivity to declining soil moisture and drought. Although species-specific responses to drought have often been suggested to be the result of different water uptake depths, empirical evidence for such a mechanism is scarce. Here we test if differences in water uptake depths can explain previously observed species-specific physiological responses of temperate trees to drought and if the water uptake depth of different species varies in response to declining soil moisture. For this purpose, we employed stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes of soil and xylem water that we collected over the course of three growing seasons in a mature temperate forest in Switzerland. Our data show that all investigated species utilise water from shallow soil layers during times of sufficient soil water supply. However, Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica and Acer pseudoplatanus were able to shift their water uptake to deeper soil layers when soil water availability decreased in the topsoil. In contrast, Picea abies, was not able to shift its water uptake to deeper soil layers. We conclude from our data that more drought-resistant tree species are able to shift their water uptake to deeper soil layers when water availability in the topsoil is becoming scarce. In addition, we were able to show that water uptake depth of temperate tree species is a trait with high plasticity that needs to be characterised across a range of environmental conditions.

Effects of thermopeaking on the thermal response of alpine river systems to heatwaves

Within the past 30years there have been two major heatwave events (in 2003 and 2006) that broke 500-year-old temperature records in Europe. Owing to the growing concern of rising temperatures, we analyzed the potential response in a number of river sections that are subject to hydropeaking and thermopeaking through the intermittent release of water from hydropower stations. Thermopeaking in alpine streams is known to intermittently cool down the river water in summer and to warm it up in winter. We analyzed the response of river water temperature to air temperature during heatwaves at 19 gauging stations across Switzerland, using a 30-yr dataset at a 10-min resolution. Stations were either classified into "unpeaked" or "peaked" groups according to four statistical indicators related to hydropeaking and thermopeaking pressure. Peaked stations were exposed to reduced temporal variability in river water temperature, and it was determined that correlations between river water and air temperature were weaker for peaked stations compared with unpeaked stations. Similarly, peaked stations showed a much weaker response to heatwaves compared with unpeaked stations. It is important to note that this "cooling effect" created by hydro-thermopeaking was most pronounced during the two major heatwave events that took place in 2003 and 2006. Furthermore, results from thermal stress events on the growth of a typical cold eurythermic fish species (brown trout) increased continuously in rivers subject to peaked station water release during heatwaves. While hydropower operations that take place high up on mountains releasing hypolimnetic water may mitigate the adverse effects of heatwaves on downstream alpine river ecosystems locally, our results show the complexity of an artificial physical template associated with flow regime regulation in alpine streams.

How does climate change affect regeneration of Mediterranean high-mountain plants? An integration and synthesis of current knowledge

Mediterranean mountains are extraordinarily diverse and hold a high proportion of endemic plants, but they are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and most species distribution models project drastic changes in community composition. Retrospective studies and long-term monitoring also highlight that Mediterranean high-mountain plants are suffering severe range contractions. The aim of this work is to review the current knowledge of climate change impacts on the process of plant regeneration by seed in Mediterranean high-mountain plants, by combining available information from observational and experimental studies. We also discuss some processes that may provide resilience against changing environmental conditions and suggest some research priorities for the future. With some exceptions, there is still little evidence of the direct effects of climate change on pollination and reproductive success of Mediterranean high-mountain plants, and most works are observational and/or centred only in the post-dispersal stages (germination and establishment). The great majority of studies agree that the characteristic summer drought and the extreme heatwaves, which are projected to be more intense in the future, are the most limiting factors for the regeneration process. However, there is an urgent need for studies combining elevational gradient approaches with experimental manipulations of temperature and drought to confirm the magnitude and variability of species' responses. There is also limited knowledge about the ability of Mediterranean high-mountain plants to cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. This could be achieved by performing common garden and reciprocal translocation experiments with species differing in life history traits.

North Atlantic controls on wintertime warm extremes and aridification trends in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the most water stressed regions in the world, receiving the majority of its hydrological input during the winter, in the form of highly variable and scattered precipitation. The persistence of wintertime anticyclonic conditions over the region can deflect storm tracks and result in extended spells of exceptionally hot weather, favoring prolonged droughts and posing a major threat to the already fragile hydrological equilibrium of the Middle East. Despite their potential impacts on water-security, winter warm spells (WWS’s) have received far less attention than their summer counterparts, and the climatic drivers leading to WWS’s onset are still largely unexplored. Here, we investigate their relationship with the internal modes of variability in the Atlantic Ocean, already known to influence winter circulation and extremes in Eurasia and Northern America. We show that the occurrence of WWS’s is strongly correlated with Atlantic variability over decadal time scales. To explain this correlation, we propose a teleconnection mechanism linking Atlantic variability to WWS’s via the propagation of Rossby waves from the North Atlantic pool, and the mediation of the Mediterranean circulation – thereby providing a basis to better predict future warming and aridification trends in the Middle East.

An Inter-comparison of Three Heat Wave Types in China during 1961-2010: Observed Basic Features and Linear Trends

Using observed daily temperatures in China, three independent types of heat waves (HWs), including daytime HWs, nighttime HWs, and compound HWs (with both extreme daily maxima and minima), were defined. Different types of HWs showed distinctive preferences in occurrence locations and timing. However, spatial patterns of accompanying relative humidity were generally independent of categorization, except for closer association of nighttime events with high humidity level. Compound HWs and nighttime HWs experienced significant increases in frequency, participating days, mean duration, intensity and areal extent. Conversely, significant decreasing trends of above indicators prevailed in daytime HWs, especially in central-eastern China. Tendency of relative humidity changes didn’t vary with HW types. Instead it caused an interesting phenomenon that dry HWs in the west became more humid and humid events in the east got dryer, as manifested most obviously in compound type. Thorough comparisons highlight the evolutionary dominance of HW types. Specifically, previously-dominating independent daytime HWs have been increasingly replaced by independent nighttime events in central-eastern China, and by compound HWs in southern China. That’s the very reason for negative trends of independent daytime HWs in eastern China, even in a warming climate.

Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75-95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

Impacts of leaf age and heat stress duration on photosynthetic gas exchange and foliar nonstructural carbohydrates in Coffea arabica

Given future climate predictions of increased temperature, and frequency and intensity of heat waves in the tropics, suitable habitat to grow ecologically, economically, and socially valuable Coffea arabica is severely threatened. We investigated how leaf age and heat stress duration impact recovery from heat stress in C. arabica. Treated plants were heated in a growth chamber at 49°C for 45 or 90 min. Physiological recovery was monitored in situ using gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence (the ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence, FV/FM), and leaf nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) on mature and expanding leaves before and 2, 15, 25, and 50 days after treatment. Regardless of leaf age, the 90-min treatment resulted in greater FV/FM reduction 2 days after treatment and slower recovery than the 45-min treatment. In both treatments, photosynthesis of expanding leaves recovered more slowly than in mature leaves. Stomatal conductance (gs) decreased in expanding leaves but did not change in mature leaves. These responses led to reduced intrinsic water-use efficiency with increasing heat stress duration in both age classes. Based on a leaf energy balance model, aftereffects of heat stress would be exacerbated by increases in leaf temperature at low gs under full sunlight where C. arabica is often grown, but also under partial sunlight. Starch and total NSC content of the 45-min group significantly decreased 2 days after treatment and then accumulated 15 and 25 days after treatment coinciding with recovery of photosynthesis and FV/FM. In contrast, sucrose of the 90-min group accumulated at day 2 suggesting that phloem transport was inhibited. Both treatment group responses contrasted with control plant total NSC and starch, which declined with time associated with subsequent flower and fruit production. No treated plants produced flowers or fruits, suggesting that short duration heat stress can lead to crop failure.

Global assessment of heat wave magnitudes from 1901 to 2010 and implications for the river discharge of the Alps

Heat waves represent one of the most significant climatic stressors for ecosystems, economies and societies. A main topic of debate is whether they have increased or not in intensity and/or their duration due to the observed climate change. Firstly, this is because of the lack of reliable long-term daily temperature data at the global scale; secondly, because of the intermittent nature of such phenomena. Long datasets are required to produce a reliable and meaningful assessment. In this study, we provide a global estimate of heat wave magnitudes based on the three most appropriate datasets currently available, derived from models and observations (i.e. the 20th Century Reanalyses from NOAA and ECMWF), spanning the last century and before. The magnitude of the heat waves is calculated by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), taking into account both duration and amplitude. We compare the magnitude of the most severe heat waves occurred across different regions of the world and we discuss the decadal variability of the larger events since the 1850s. We concentrate our analysis from 1901 onwards, where all datasets overlap. Our results agree with other studies focusing on heat waves that have occurred in the recent decades, but using different data. In addition, we found that the percentage of global area covered by heat wave exceeding a given magnitude has increased almost three times, in the last decades, with respect to that measured in the early 20th century. Finally, we discuss the specific implications of the heat waves on the river runoff generated in the Alps, for which comparatively long datasets exist, affecting the water quality and availability in a significant portion of the European region in summer.