Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases

Comparative review of One Health and Indigenous approaches to wildlife research in Inuit Nunangat

There is increasing interest in One Health and Indigenous methodologies and approaches in wildlife research, but they are not widely used research applications in the Arctic. Both approaches are wide in scope and originate from different knowledge systems but are often compared synonymously. We review the literature of overlap between the term One Health and Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit (Inuit Indigenous Knowledge) throughout Inuit Nunaat on wildlife research. Three databases (SCOPUS, Web of Science, and BIOSIS) were used to find English language articles and books within the bounds of Inuit Nunaat. While One Health and Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit research approaches share synergies, they are fundamentally disparate owing to their differences in epistemology, including views on the natural environment and wildlife management. We describe current examples of One Health being operationalized in Inuit Nunaat and identify potential to address larger and more complex questions about wildlife health, with examples from terrestrial and marine Arctic wildlife. Both Indigenous methodologies and One Health naturally have a human component at their core, which seamlessly lends itself to discussions on wildlife management, as human actions and regulations directly impact environment and wildlife health.

Pathogen genomic surveillance status among lower resource settings in Asia

Asia remains vulnerable to new and emerging infectious diseases. Understanding how to improve next generation sequencing (NGS) use in pathogen surveillance is an urgent priority for regional health security. Here we developed a pathogen genomic surveillance assessment framework to assess capacity in low-resource settings in South and Southeast Asia. Data collected between June 2022 and March 2023 from 42 institutions in 13 countries showed pathogen genomics capacity exists, but use is limited and under-resourced. All countries had NGS capacity and seven countries had strategic plans integrating pathogen genomics into wider surveillance efforts. Several pathogens were prioritized for human surveillance, but NGS application to environmental and human-animal interface surveillance was limited. Barriers to NGS implementation include reliance on external funding, supply chain challenges, trained personnel shortages and limited quality assurance mechanisms. Coordinated efforts are required to support national planning, address capacity gaps, enhance quality assurance and facilitate data sharing for decision making.

A systematic review on current approaches in bat virus discovered between 2018 and 2022

Zoonotic viruses are widely seen as the primary threat for future pandemics. Bats are the most diverse group of mammals, with more than 1400 species distributed across most habitats on Earth. So far, 31 known virus families were associated with bats, although the understanding of most viruses were insufficient. Continuous efforts to discover, understand and monitor these bats viruses, is thereby an area of public health interest. This systematic review was designed to catalogue publications reporting novel bat virus discoveries within PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases, within a 5-year period from 2018 to 2022. Various experimental parameters, including sampling locations, methodology, bat species diversity, similarity to known viruses, species demarcation of new viruses, and genomic sequencing strategies, were extracted from 41 publications and analyzed. In total, 72 novel viruses from 19 virus families were identified between 2018 and 2022, particularly from Genomoviridae (DNA viruses) and Coronaviridae (RNA viruses). That said, only a limited number of bat families featured extensively despite noticeable shift towards next generation sequencing methods and metagenomics pipeline for virus identification across different sampling methods. This review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the global efforts made over the past five years to identify and characterize emerging viruses in bat species, and to provide a detailed overview of the current technologies and methodologies used in these studies.

Strong and consistent effects of waterbird composition on HPAI H5 occurrences across Europe

Since 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have been dominating the outbreaks across Europe, causing massive deaths among poultry and wild birds. However, the factors shaping these broad-scale outbreak patterns, especially those related to waterbird community composition, remain unclear. In particular, we do not know whether these risk factors differ from those of other H5 clades. Addressing this knowledge gap is important for predicting and preventing future HPAI outbreaks. Using extensive waterbird survey datasets from about 6883 sites, we here explored the effect of waterbird community composition on HPAI H5Nx (clade 2.3.4.4) spatial patterns in the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 epidemics in Europe, and compared it with the 2005/2006 HPAI H5N1 (clade 2.2) epidemic. We showed that HPAI H5 occurrences in wild birds in the three epidemics were strongly associated with very similar waterbird community attributes, which suggested that, in nature, similar interspecific transmission processes operate between the HPAI H5 subtypes or clades. Importantly, community phylogenetic diversity consistently showed a negative association with H5 occurrence in all three epidemics, suggesting a dilution effect of phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, waterbird community variables showed much weaker associations with HPAI H5Nx occurrence in poultry. Our results demonstrate that models based on previous epidemics can predict future HPAI H5 patterns in wild birds, implying that it is important to include waterbird community factors in future HPAI studies to predict outbreaks and improve surveillance activities.

Investigation of Rabies virus in wild mammals of the atlantic forest in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

With the successful control of rabies transmitted by dogs in Brazil, wild animals have played a relevant epidemiological role in the transmission of rabies virus (RABV). Bats, non-human primates and wild canines are the main wild animals that transmit RABV in the country. It is worth highlighting the possibility of synanthropic action of these species, when they become adapted to urban areas, causing infections in domestic animals and eventually in humans. This work aimed to evaluate the circulation of RABV in the Pedra Branca Forest, an Atlantic Forest area, located in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Southeast Brazil. Saliva and blood samples were obtained from 60 individuals of eight species of bats, captured with mist nets, and 13 individuals of callitrichid primates, captured with tomahawk traps. Saliva samples were subjected to Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR), targeting the RABV N gene, with all samples being negative. Blood samples of all animals were submitted to the Rapid Fluorescent Focus Inhibition Test (RFFIT) to detect neutralizing antibodies (Ab) for RABV. Six bat samples (8%) were seropositive for RABV with antibody titers greater than or equal to 0.1 IU/mL. The detection of Ab but not viral RNA indicates exposure rather than current RABV transmission in the analyzed populations. The results presented here reinforce the importance of serological studies in wildlife to access RABV circulation in a region.

Global wastewater surveillance for pathogens with pandemic potential: opportunities and challenges

Wastewater surveillance holds great promise as a sensitive method to detect spillover of zoonotic infections and early pandemic emergence, thereby informing risk mitigation and public health response. Known viruses with pandemic potential are shed in human stool or urine, or both, and the experiences with SARS-CoV-2, monkeypox virus, and Zika virus highlight the feasibility of community-based wastewater surveillance for pandemic viruses that have different transmission routes. We reviewed human shedding and wastewater surveillance data for prototype viruses representing viral families of concern to estimate the likely sensitivity of wastewater surveillance compared with that of clinical surveillance. We examined how data on wastewater surveillance detection, together with viral genetic sequences and animal faecal biomarkers, could be used to identify spillover infections or early human transmission and adaptation. The opportunities and challenges associated with global wastewater surveillance for the prevention of pandemics are described in this Personal View, focusing on low-income and middle-income countries, where the risk of pandemic emergence is the highest. We propose a research and public health agenda to ensure an equitable and sustainable solution to these challenges.

Genetic diversity and cross-species transmissibility of bat-associated picornaviruses from Spain

BACKGROUND

Emerging zoonotic diseases arise from cross-species transmission events between wild or domesticated animals and humans, with bats being one of the major reservoirs of zoonotic viruses. Viral metagenomics has led to the discovery of many viruses, but efforts have mainly been focused on some areas of the world and on certain viral families.

METHODS

We set out to describe full-length genomes of new picorna-like viruses by collecting feces from hundreds of bats captured in different regions of Spain. Viral sequences were obtained by high-throughput Illumina sequencing and analyzed phylogenetically to classify them in the context of known viruses. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was performed to infer likely hosts based on genome composition.

RESULTS

We found five complete or nearly complete genomes belonging to the family Picornaviridae, including a new species of the subfamily Ensavirinae. LDA suggested that these were true vertebrate viruses, rather than viruses from the bat diet. Some of these viruses were related to picornaviruses previously found in other bat species from distant geographical regions. We also found a calhevirus genome that most likely belongs to a proposed new family within the order Picornavirales, and for which genome composition analysis suggested a plant host.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings describe new picorna-like viral species and variants circulating in the Iberian Peninsula, illustrate the wide geographical distribution and interspecies transmissibility of picornaviruses, and suggest new hosts for calheviruses.

A Generalizable Prioritization Protocol for Climate-Sensitive Zoonotic Diseases

Emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases pose a significant threat to global health and economic security. This threat is further aggravated by amplifying drivers of change, including climate hazards and landscape alterations induced by climate change. Given the complex relationships between climate change and zoonotic disease health outcomes, a structured decision-making process is required to effectively identify pathogens of greatest concern to prioritize prevention and surveillance efforts. Here, we describe a workshop-based expert elicitation process in six steps to prioritize climate-sensitive zoonoses based on a structured approach to defining criteria for climate sensitivity. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process methodology is used to analyze data provided by experts across human, animal, and environmental health sectors accounting for uncertainties at different stages of the prioritization process. We also present a new interactive expert elicitation interface that facilitates data collection and real-time visualization of prioritization results. The novel approach presented in this paper offers a generalized platform for prioritizing climate-sensitive zoonoses at a national or regional level. This allows for a structured decision-making support process when allocating limited financial and personnel resources to enhance preparedness and response to zoonotic diseases amplified by climate change.

Full-genome sequencing of dozens of new DNA viruses found in Spanish bat feces

Bats are natural hosts of multiple viruses, many of which have clear zoonotic potential. The search for emerging viruses has been aided by the implementation of metagenomic tools, which have also enabled the detection of unprecedented viral diversity. Currently, this search is mainly focused on RNA viruses, which are largely over-represented in databases. To compensate for this research bias, we analyzed fecal samples from 189 Spanish bats belonging to 22 different species using viral metagenomics. This allowed us to identify 52 complete or near-complete viral genomes belonging to the families Adenoviridae, Circoviridae, Genomoviridae, Papillomaviridae, Parvoviridae, Polyomaviridae and Smacoviridae. Of these, 30 could constitute new species, doubling the number of viruses currently described in Europe. These findings open the door to a more thorough analysis of bat DNA viruses and their zoonotic potential.

IMPORTANCE

Metagenomics has become a fundamental tool to characterize the global virosphere, allowing us not only to understand the existing viral diversity and its ecological implications but also to identify new and emerging viruses. RNA viruses have a higher zoonotic potential, but this risk is also present for some DNA virus families. In our study, we analyzed the DNA fraction of fecal samples from 22 Spanish bat species, identifying 52 complete or near-complete genomes of different viral families with zoonotic potential. This doubles the number of genomes currently described in Europe. Metagenomic data often produce partial genomes that can be difficult to analyze. Our work, however, has characterized a large number of complete genomes, thus facilitating their taxonomic classification and enabling different analyses to be carried out to evaluate their zoonotic potential. For example, recombination studies are relevant since this phenomenon could play a major role in cross-species transmission.

A Systematic Review of Zoonotic Disease Prevalence in Sri Lanka (2000-2022)

Background: The burden of zoonotic diseases in developing countries is significantly underestimated, influenced by various factors such as misdiagnosis, underreporting, natural disasters, climate change, resource limitations, rapid unplanned urbanization, poverty, animal migration, travel, ecotourism, and the tropical environmental conditions prevalent in the region. Despite Sri Lanka's provision of a publicly funded free health care system, zoonoses still contribute significantly to the burden of communicable diseases in the country. This study serves as a timely and exhaustive systematic review of zoonoses reported over the past 22 years in Sri Lanka. Materials and Methods: This systematic review adhered to the guidelines provided by the "Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses" (PRISMA) statement. A systematic literature search was conducted between July and September 2022, utilizing the following databases and sources: Google Scholar, PubMed, Cochrane Library, Weekly Epidemiological Reports, and Rabies Statistical Bulletins published by the Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka. Results: From the initial database search, 1,710 articles were identified. After excluding nonzoonotic diseases, duplicated reports, inaccessible articles, and those not meeting the inclusion criteria, 570 reports were evaluated for eligibility. Of these, 91 reports were selected for data extraction, comprising 58 original research articles, 10 case reports, 16 weekly epidemiological reports, and 7 rabies statistical bulletins. Over the study period (2000-2022), 14 parasitic, 7 bacterial, and 7 viral zoonoses have been reported in Sri Lanka. Notably, leptospirosis emerged as the most reported zoonotic disease in the country. Conclusions: In response to these findings, we strongly recommend the implementation of a tailored, country-specific prevention and control program. To achieve this goal effectively, we emphasize the importance of adopting a country-specific "One Health" approach as a comprehensive framework for managing and controlling zoonotic diseases in Sri Lanka.

Monitoring of Astroviruses, Brno-Hantaviruses, Coronaviruses, Influenza Viruses, Bornaviruses, Morbilliviruses, Lyssaviruses and Pestiviruses in Austrian Bats

Here, we report the results of a monitoring study of bat viruses in Austria to strengthen the knowledge of circulating viruses in Austrian bat populations. In this study, we analyzed 618 oropharyngeal and rectal swab samples from 309 bats and 155 pooled tissue samples from dead bats. Samples were collected from 18 different bat species from multiple locations in Austria, from November 2015 to April 2018, and examined for astroviruses, bornaviruses, coronaviruses, hantaviruses, morbilliviruses, orthomyxoviruses (influenza A/C/D viruses), pestiviruses and rhabdoviruses (lyssaviruses) using molecular techniques and sequencing. Using RT-qPCR, 36 samples revealed positive or suspicious results for astroviruses, Brno-hantaviruses, and coronaviruses in nine different bat species. Further sequencing revealed correspondent sequences in five samples. In contrast, none of the tested samples was positive for influenza viruses A/C/D, bornaviruses, morbilliviruses, lyssaviruses, or pestiviruses.

Identification and Characterization of an Alphacoronavirus in Rhinolophus sinicus and a Betacoronavirus in Apodemus ilex in Yunnan, China

Coronaviruses (CoVs), the largest positive-sense RNA viruses, have caused infections in both humans and animals. The cross-species transmission of CoVs poses a serious threat to public health. Rodents and bats, the two largest orders of mammals, serve as significant natural reservoirs for CoVs. It is important to monitor the CoVs carried by bats and rodents. In this study, we collected 410 fecal samples from bats and 74 intestinal samples from rats in Yunnan Province, China. Using RT-PCR, we identified one positive sample for alphacoronavirus (TC-14) from Rhinolophus sinicus (Chinese rufous horseshoe bat) and two positive samples for betacoronavirus (GS-53, GS-56) from Apodemus ilex (Rodentia: Muridae). We successfully characterized the complete genomes of TC-14 and GS-56. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that TC-14 clustered with bat CoV HKU2 and SADS-CoV, while GS-56 was closely related to rat CoV HKU24. The identification of positive selection sites and estimation of divergence dates further helped characterize the genetic evolution of TC-14 and GS-56. In summary, this research reveals the genetic evolution characteristics of TC-14 and GS-56, providing valuable references for the study of CoVs carried by bats and rodents in Yunnan Province.

Establishing an early warning event management system at Africa CDC

Africa is home to hotspots of disease emergence and re-emergence. To adequately detect and respond to these health threats, early warning systems inclusive of event-based surveillance (EBS) are needed. However, data systems to manage these events are not readily available. In 2020, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention developed an event management system (EMS) to meet this need. The district health information software (DHIS2), which is free and open-source software was identified as the platform for the EMS because it can support data capture and analysis and monitor and report events. The EMS was created through a collaborative and iterative prototyping process that included modifying key DHIS2 applications like Tracker Capture. Africa CDC started piloting the EMS with both signal and event data entry in June 2020. By December 2022, 416 events were captured and over 140 weekly reports, including 19 COVID-19 specific reports, were generated and distributed to inform continental awareness and response efforts. Most events detected directly impacted humans (69%), were considered moderate (50%) to high (29%) risk level and reflected both emerging and endemic infectious disease outbreaks. Highly pathogenic avian influenza, specifically H5N1, was the most frequently detected animal event and storms and flooding were most frequently detected environmental events. Both data completeness and timeliness improved over time. Country-level interest and utility resulted in four African countries adapting the EMS in 2022 and two more in 2023. This system demonstrates how integrating digital technology into health systems and utilising existing digital platforms like DHIS2 can improve early warning at the continental and country level by improving EBS workflow.

Molecular basis for receptor recognition and broad host tropism for merbecovirus MjHKU4r-CoV-1

A novel pangolin-origin MERS-like coronavirus (CoV), MjHKU4r-CoV-1, was recently identified. It is closely related to bat HKU4-CoV, and is infectious in human organs and transgenic mice. MjHKU4r-CoV-1 uses the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4 or CD26) receptor for virus entry and has a broad host tropism. However, the molecular mechanism of its receptor binding and determinants of host range are not yet clear. Herein, we determine the structure of the MjHKU4r-CoV-1 spike (S) protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) complexed with human CD26 (hCD26) to reveal the basis for its receptor binding. Measuring binding capacity toward multiple animal receptors for MjHKU4r-CoV-1, mutagenesis analyses, and homology modeling highlight that residue sites 291, 292, 294, 295, 336, and 344 of CD26 are the crucial host range determinants for MjHKU4r-CoV-1. These results broaden our understanding of this potentially high-risk virus and will help us prepare for possible outbreaks in the future.

An ounce of prevention is better : Monitoring wildlife health as a tool for pandemic prevention

Long-term observations of wildlife are key to understanding the ecological foundations of disease emergence. They provide unique opportunities to detect pathogens with zoonotic potential that could threaten human health but also pose a threat for the animals.

Prevalence and transmission of the most relevant zoonotic and vector-borne pathogens in the Yucatan peninsula: A review

BACKGROUND

Habitat modification and land use changes impact ecological interactions and alter the relationships between humans and nature. Mexico has experienced significant landscape modifications at the local and regional scales, with negative effects on forest cover and biological biodiversity, especially in the Yucatan peninsula in southeastern Mexico. Given the close relationship between landscape modification and the transmission of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases, it is essential to develop criteria for identifying priority zoonoses in the south of the country.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We reviewed 165 published studies on zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in the region (2015-2024). We identified the most frequent vectors, reservoirs, and hosts, the most prevalent infections, and the factors associated with transmission risk and the anthropogenic landscape modification in urban, rural, ecotone, and sylvatic habitats. The most relevant pathogens of zoonotic risk included Trypanosoma cruzi, arboviruses, Leishmania, Rickettsia, Leptospira, and Toxoplasma gondii. Trypanosoma cruzi was the vector-borne agent with the largest number of infected vertebrate species across habitats, while Leishmania and arboviruses were the ones that affected the greatest number of people. Dogs, cats, backyard animals, and their hematophagous ectoparasites are the most likely species maintaining the transmission cycles in human settlements, while rodents, opossums, bats, and other synanthropic animals facilitate connection and transmission cycles between forested habitats with human-modified landscapes. Pathogens displayed different prevalences between the landscapes, T. cruzi, arbovirus, and Leptospira infections were the most prevalent in urban and rural settlements, whereas Leishmania and Rickettsia had similar prevalence across habitats, likely due to the diversity and abundance of the infected vectors involved. The prevalence of T. gondii and Leptospira spp. may reflect poor hygiene conditions. Additionally, results suggest that prevalence of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases is higher in deforested areas and agricultural aggregates, and in sites with precarious health and infrastructure services.

CONCLUSIONS

Some hosts, vectors, and transmission trends of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in the YP are well known but others remain poorly recognized. It is imperative to reinforce practices aimed at increasing the knowledge, monitoring, prevention, and control of these diseases at the regional level. We also emphasize the need to perform studies on a larger spatio-temporal scale under the socio-ecosystem perspective, to better elucidate the interactions between pathogens, hosts, vectors, environment, and sociocultural and economic aspects in this and many other tropical regions.

Exploring the Potential of Muridae as Sentinels for Human and Zoonotic Viruses

In recent years, the transmission of viruses from wildlife to humans has raised significant public health concerns, exemplified by the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Human activities play a substantial role in increasing the risk of zoonotic virus transmission from wildlife to humans. Rats and mice are prevalent in urban environments and may act as reservoirs for various pathogens. This study aimed to evaluate the presence of zoonotic viruses in wild rats and mice in both urban and rural areas, focusing on well-known zoonotic viruses such as betacoronavirus, hantavirus, arenavirus, kobuvirus, and monkeypox virus, along with other viruses occasionally detected in rats and mice, including rotavirus, norovirus, and astrovirus, which are known to infect humans at a high rate. A total of 128 animals were captured, including 70 brown rats (Rattus norvegicus), 45 black rats (Rattus rattus), and 13 house mice (Mus musculus), and feces, lung, and liver were collected. Among brown rats, one fecal sample tested positive for astrovirus RNA. Nucleotide sequencing revealed high sequence similarity to both human and rat astrovirus, suggesting co-presence of these viruses in the feces. Murine kobuvirus (MuKV) was detected in fecal samples from both black (n = 7) and brown (n = 6) rats, primarily from urban areas, as confirmed by sequence analysis. These findings highlight the importance of surveillance and research to understand and mitigate the risks associated with the potential transmission of pathogens by rodents.

Leveraging wastewater surveillance to detect viral diseases in livestock settings

Wastewater surveillance has evolved into a powerful tool for monitoring public health-relevant analytes. Recent applications in tracking severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection highlight its potential. Beyond humans, it can be extended to livestock settings where there is increasing demand for livestock products, posing risks of disease emergence. Wastewater surveillance may offer non-invasive, cost-effective means to detect potential outbreaks among animals. This approach aligns with the "One Health" paradigm, emphasizing the interconnectedness of animal, human, and ecosystem health. By monitoring viruses in livestock wastewater, early detection, prevention, and control strategies can be employed, safeguarding both animal and human health, economic stability, and international trade. This integrated "One Health" approach enhances collaboration and a comprehensive understanding of disease dynamics, supporting proactive measures in the Anthropocene era where animal and human diseases are on the rise.

One Health Risk and Disease (OHRAD): a tool to prioritise the risks for epidemic-prone diseases from One Health perspective

BACKGROUND

The rise in epidemic-prone diseases daily poses a serious concern globally. Evidence suggests that many of these diseases are of animal origin and contribute to economic loss. Considering the limited time and other resources available for the animal and human health sectors, selecting the most urgent and significant risk factors and diseases is vital, even though all epidemic-prone diseases and associated risk factors should be addressed. The main aim of developing this tool is to provide a readily accessible instrument for prioritising risk factors and diseases that could lead to disease emergence, outbreak or epidemic.

METHODS

This tool uses a quantitative and semi-quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method that involves five steps: Identifying risk factors and diseases, Weighting the criteria, Risk and disease scoring, Calculating risk impact and disease burden score, and Ranking risks and diseases. It is intended to be implemented through a co-creation workshop and involves individual and group activities. The last two steps are automated in the MS Excel score sheet.

RESULTS

This One Health Risk and Disease (OHRAD) prioritisation tool starts with an individual activity of identifying the risks and diseases from the more extensive list. This, then, leads to a group activity of weighing the criteria and providing scores for each risk and disease. Finally, the individual risk and disease scores with the rankings are generated in this tool.

CONCLUSIONS

The outcome of this OHRAD prioritisation tool is that the top risks and diseases are prioritised for the particular context from One Health perspective. This prioritised list will help experts and officials decide which epidemic-prone diseases to focus on and for which to develop and design prevention and control measures.

Early-stage loss of ecological integrity drives the risk of zoonotic disease emergence

Anthropogenic pressures have increasingly disrupted the integrity of ecosystems worldwide, jeopardizing their capacity to provide essential contributions to human well-being. Recently, the role of natural ecosystems in reducing disease emergence risk has gained prominence in decision-making processes, as scientific evidence indicates that human-driven pressure, such as habitat destruction and deforestation, can trigger the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. However, the intricate relationship between biodiversity and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) remains only partially understood. Here, we updated the most comprehensive zoonotic EID event database with the latest reported events to analyse the relationship between EIDs of wildlife origin (zoonoses) and various facets of ecological integrity. We found EID risk was strongly predicted by structural integrity metrics such as human footprint and ecoregion intactness, in addition to environmental variables such as tropical rainforest density and mammal species richness. EID events were more likely to occur in areas with intermediate levels of compositional and structural integrity, underscoring the risk posed by human encroachment into pristine, undisturbed lands. Our study highlights the need to identify novel indicators and targets that can effectively address EID risk alongside other pressing global challenges in sustainable development, ultimately informing strategies for preserving both human and environmental health.

Ecological niche modeling analysis (Cx. pipiens), potential risk and projection of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Greece

Vector-borne diseases continue to increase worldwide. Dirofilariosis is one of the most common vector-borne zoonotic diseases, mainly caused by Dirofilaria spp. (D. immitis and D. repens) and spread by culicid mosquitoes of different species. Greece is one of the countries in southern Europe where it is traditionally endemic, and its distribution is not homogeneous. The aim of this study was to develop an environmental model for Greece that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for Dirofilaria spp. infection risk and its projection until 2080. For this purpose, we used the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated using an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of Dirofilaria spp. The ecological niche model of Cx. pipiens in Greece showed good predictive power (AUC=0.897) with the parasite at a resolution of 1 km2. The variables that contributed most to the model were mean annual temperature, rivers and human footprint. The highest risk of infection was found in coastal areas and in riverside areas of the main river basins, as well as in irrigated areas of the mainland and peninsular regions and in the whole territory of island areas, and the lowest risk was found in areas of higher altitude. A positive relationship was found between the risk of dirofilariosis and the location of infected dogs, with 86.65% located in very high and high risk areas. In 2080, the percentage of territory gained by Cx. pipiens will increase by 261.52%. This model provides a high predictive value, predicted presence, and risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection and can serve as a tool for the management and control of this disease.

Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions. These mass action interactions are approximated through the multiplication of the spatial distribution of zoonotic virus diversity and human population density. Although our results indicate higher risk in regions along the equator and in Southeast Asia where both virus diversity and human population density are high, it should be noted that this is primarily a conceptual exercise. We compared our spillover risk map to key factors, including the model inputs of zoonotic virus diversity estimate map, human population density map, and the spatial distribution of species richness. Despite the limitations of this approach, this viral spillover map is a step towards developing a more comprehensive spillover risk prediction system to inform global monitoring.

Prioritization of zoonoses of wildlife origin for multisectoral one health collaboration in Guyana, 2022

Background

The human population in Guyana, located on the South American continent, is vulnerable to zoonotic diseases due to an appreciable reliance on Neotropical wildlife as a food source and for trade. An existing suboptimal health surveillance system may affect the effective monitoring of important zoonotic diseases. To effectively address this deficit, a One Health zoonotic disease prioritization workshop was conducted to identify nationally significant zoonoses.

Methods

Prioritization of zoonotic diseases was conducted for the first time in Guyana & Caribbean region using literature review, prioritization criteria and a risk prioritization tool in combination with a consultative One Health workshop. This involved multisectoral experts from varied disciplines of social, human, animal, and environmental health to prioritize zoonotic diseases using a modified semi-quantitative One Health Zoonotic Disease Prioritization (OHZDP) tool. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to pathogen hazards in existence among wildlife in Guyana during the hazard identification phase.

Results

In total, fifty zoonoses were chosen for prioritization. Based on their weighted score, prioritized diseases were ranked in order of relative importance using a one-to-five selection scale. In Guyana, this zoonotic disease prioritization method is the first significant step toward bringing together specialists from the fields of human, animal, and environmental health. Following discussion of the OHZDP Tool output among disease experts, a final zoonotic disease list, including tuberculosis, leptospirosis, gastroenteritis, rabies, coronavirus, orthopoxvirus, viral hemorrhagic fevers, and hepatitis were identified as the top eight priority zoonoses in Guyana.

Conclusions

This represents the first prioritization of nationally significant zoonotic diseases in Guyana and the English-speaking Caribbean. This One Health strategy to prioritize these eight zoonoses of wildlife origin is a step that will support future tracking and monitoring for disease prevalence among humans and wildlife and can be used as a decision-making guide for policymakers and stakeholders in Guyana.

Vector mosquito distribution and richness are predicted by socio-economic, and ecological variables

Mosquitoes of vectorial importance represent a ubiquitous and constant threat of potentially devastating arboviral outbreaks. Our ability to predict such outcomes is still restricted. To answer this, we have used an extensive data collection of 23 vector and 233 non-vector mosquito species distributed throughout the Mexican territory and linked them to social and environmental factors. Our aim was to predict vector and non-vector mosquitoes' distribution and species richness based on socioeconomic and environmental data. We found that lack of health services, human population variation, ecological degradation, and urban-rural categorization contributed significantly to explain the distribution of vector mosquitoes. mosquitoes. This phenomenon is probably attributed to the degradation of natural ecosystems as it creates favorable conditions for the proliferation of vector mosquitoes. The richness of vector mosquitoes was similarly explained by most of these variables as well as altitude. As for non-vector mosquitoes, social marginalization, ecological degradation, anthropogenic impact, and altitude explain species richness and distribution. These findings illustrate the complex interaction of environmental and socioeconomic factors behind the distribution of mosquitoes, and the potential for arboviral disease outbreaks. Areas with human populations at highest risk for mosquito-borne diseases should be primary targets for vector control.

Viral pathogen detection in U.S. game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) flags spillover risk to wild birds

The threat posed by emerging infectious diseases is a major concern for global public health, animal health and food security, and the role of birds in transmission is increasingly under scrutiny. Each year, millions of mass-reared game-farm birds are released into the wild, presenting a unique and a poorly understood risk to wild and susceptible bird populations, and to human health. In particular, the shedding of enteric pathogens through excrement into bodies of water at shared migratory stop-over sites, and breeding and wintering grounds, could facilitate multi-species long-distance pathogen dispersal and infection of high numbers of naive endemic birds annually. The Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is the most abundant of all duck species, migratory across much of its range, and an important game species for pen-rearing and release. Major recent population declines along the US Atlantic coast has been attributed to game-farm and wild mallard interbreeding and the introduction maladaptive traits into wild populations. However, pathogen transmission and zoonosis among game-farms Mallard may also impact these populations, as well as wildlife and human health. Here, we screened 16 game-farm Mallard from Wisconsin, United States, for enteric viral pathogens using metatranscriptomic data. Four families of viral pathogens were identified - Picobirnaviridae (Genogroup I), Caliciviridae (Duck Nacovirus), Picornaviridae (Duck Aalivirus) and Sedoreoviridae (Duck Rotavirus G). To our knowledge, this is the first report of Aalivirus in the Americas, and the first report of Calicivirus outside domestic chicken and turkey flocks in the United States. Our findings highlight the risk of viral pathogen spillover from peri-domestically reared game birds to naive wild bird populations.

A scoping review on bovine tuberculosis highlights the need for novel data streams and analytical approaches to curb zoonotic diseases

Zoonotic diseases represent a significant societal challenge in terms of their health and economic impacts. One Health approaches to managing zoonotic diseases are becoming more prevalent, but require novel thinking, tools and cross-disciplinary collaboration. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one example of a costly One Health challenge with a complex epidemiology involving humans, domestic animals, wildlife and environmental factors, which require sophisticated collaborative approaches. We undertook a scoping review of multi-host bTB epidemiology to identify trends in species publication focus, methodologies, and One Health approaches. We aimed to identify knowledge gaps where novel research could provide insights to inform control policy, for bTB and other zoonoses. The review included 532 articles. We found different levels of research attention across episystems, with a significant proportion of the literature focusing on the badger-cattle-TB episystem, with far less attention given to tropical multi-host episystems. We found a limited number of studies focusing on management solutions and their efficacy, with very few studies looking at modelling exit strategies. Only a small number of studies looked at the effect of human disturbances on the spread of bTB involving wildlife hosts. Most of the studies we reviewed focused on the effect of badger vaccination and culling on bTB dynamics with few looking at how roads, human perturbations and habitat change may affect wildlife movement and disease spread. Finally, we observed a lack of studies considering the effect of weather variables on bTB spread, which is particularly relevant when studying zoonoses under climate change scenarios. Significant technological and methodological advances have been applied to bTB episystems, providing explicit insights into its spread and maintenance across populations. We identified a prominent bias towards certain species and locations. Generating more high-quality empirical data on wildlife host distribution and abundance, high-resolution individual behaviours and greater use of mathematical models and simulations are key areas for future research. Integrating data sources across disciplines, and a "virtuous cycle" of well-designed empirical data collection linked with mathematical and simulation modelling could provide additional gains for policy-makers and managers, enabling optimised bTB management with broader insights for other zoonoses.

Analysis of the current risk of Leishmania infantum transmission for domestic dogs in Spain and Portugal and its future projection in climate change scenarios

Canine leishmaniosis, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania infantum, is a cosmopolitan vector-borne zoonosis, transmitted principally by Phlebotomus perniciosus in Spain and Portugal, where it is considered an endemic disease. Ecoinformatics tools such as ecological niche models (ENM) have been successfully tested to model the distribution of the risk of infection of different parasitosis as they take into account environmental variables vital for their survival. The risk map proposed in this study combines the potential distribution of Ph. perniciosus in the Iberian Peninsula and the calculation of the infection rate of the parasite in the vector to model the risk of contracting the disease in a more realistic way. In fact, this weighting strategy improves the predictive power of the resulting model (R2 = 0.42, p = < 0.01) compared to the Ph. perniciosus ENM model alone (R2 = 0.13, p > 0.05). The places with the highest risk of transmission are the southwest and central peninsular area, as well as the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands and the Ebro basin, places where the ideal habitat of Ph. perniciosus and the infection rate is also high. In the case of future projections under climate change scenarios, an increase in the risk of infection by L. infantum can be observed in most of the territory (4.5% in 2040, 71.6% in 2060 and 63% in 2080), mainly in the northern part of the peninsula. The use of ENMs and their weighting with the infection rate in Ph. perniciosus is a useful tool in predicting the risk of infection for L. infantum in dogs for a given area. In this way, a more complete model can be obtained to facilitate prevention and control.

A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

Long-term trends and spatial patterns of West Nile Virus emergence in California, 2004-2021

AIMS

West Nile Virus (WNV) has remained a persistent source of vector-borne disease risk in California since first being identified in the state in 2003. The geographic distribution of WNV activity is relatively widespread, but varies considerably across different regions within the state. Spatial variation in human WNV infection depends upon social-ecological factors that influence mosquito populations and virus transmission dynamics. Measuring changes in spatial patterns over time is necessary for uncovering the underlying regional drivers of disease risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we utilized statewide surveillance data to quantify temporal changes and spatial patterns of WNV activity in California. We obtained annual WNV mosquito surveillance data from 2004 through 2021 from the California Arbovirus Surveillance Program. Geographic coordinates for mosquito pools were analysed using a suite of spatial statistics to identify and classify patterns in WNV activity over time.

CONCLUSIONS

We detected clear patterns of non-random WNV risk during the study period, including emerging hot spots in the Central Valley and non-random periods of oscillating WNV risk in Southern and Northern California subregions. Our findings offer new insights into 18 years of spatio-temporal variation in WNV activity across California, which may be used for targeted surveillance efforts and public health interventions.

Spatial analysis of dengue transmission in an endemic city in Brazil reveals high spatial structuring on local dengue transmission dynamics

In the last decades, dengue has become one of the most widespread mosquito-borne arboviruses in the world, with an increasing incidence in tropical and temperate regions. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the dengue primary vector and is more abundant in highly urbanized areas. Traditional vector control methods have showing limited efficacy in sustaining mosquito population at low levels to prevent dengue virus outbreaks. Considering disease transmission is not evenly distributed in the territory, one perspective to enhance vector control efficacy relies on identifying the areas that concentrate arbovirus transmission within an endemic city, i.e., the hotspots. Herein, we used a 13-month timescale during the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic and its forced reduction in human mobility and social isolation to investigate the spatiotemporal association between dengue transmission in children and entomological indexes based on adult Ae. aegypti trapping. Dengue cases and the indexes Trap Positive Index (TPI) and Adult Density Index (ADI) varied seasonally, as expected: more than 51% of cases were notified on the first 2 months of the study, and higher infestation was observed in warmer months. The Moran's Eigenvector Maps (MEM) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) revealed a strong large-scale spatial structuring in the positive dengue cases, with an unexpected negative correlation between dengue transmission and ADI. Overall, the global model and the purely spatial model presented a better fit to data. Our results show high spatial structure and low correlation between entomological and epidemiological data in Foz do Iguaçu dengue transmission dynamics, suggesting the role of human mobility might be overestimated and that other factors not evaluated herein could be playing a significant role in governing dengue transmission.

Identification of habitat suitability for the dominant zoonotic tick species Haemaphysalis flava on Chongming Island, China

Haemaphysalis ticks are pathogenic vectors that threaten human and animal health and were identified in Chongming, the third largest island in China. To understand the distribution of these ticks and determine their potential invasion risk, this study aimed to identify the habitat suitability of the dominant tick H. flava based on natural environmental factors. Geographic information system (GIS) images were combined with sample points from tick investigations to map the spatial distribution of H. flava. Data on 19 bioclimatic variables, environmental variables, and satellite-based landscapes of Chongming Island were retrieved to create a landcover map related to natural environmental determinants of H. flava. These data included 38 sites associated with the vectors to construct species distribution models with MaxEnt, a model based on the maximum entropy principle, and to predict habitat suitability for H. flava on Chongming Island in 2050 and 2070 under different climate scenarios. The model performed well in predicting the H. flava distribution, with a training area under the curve of 0.84 and a test area under the curve of 0.73. A habitat suitability map of the whole study area was created for H. flava. The resulting map and natural environment analysis highlighted the importance of the normalized difference vegetation index and precipitation in the driest month for the bioecology of H. flava, with 141.61 km2 (11.77%), 282.94 km2 (23.35%), and 405.30 km2 (33.69%) of highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats, respectively. The distribution decreased by 135.55 km2 and 138.82 km2 in 2050 and 2070, respectively, under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1.2.6 climate change scenario. However, under SSP 5.8.5, the total area will decrease by 128.5 km2 in 2050 and increase by 151.64 km2 in 2070. From a One Health perspective, this study provides good knowledge that will guide tick control efforts to prevent the spread of Haemaphysalis ticks or transmission risk of Haemaphysalis-borne infections at the human-animal-environment interface on the island.

Predicting the binding configuration and release potential of heavy metals on iron (oxyhydr)oxides: A machine learning study on EXAFS

Heavy metals raise a global concern and can be easily retained by ubiquitous iron (oxyhydr)oxides in natural and engineered systems. The complex interaction between iron (oxyhydr)oxides and heavy metals results in various mineral-metal binding configurations, such as outer-sphere complexes and edge-sharing inner-sphere complexes, which determine the accumulation and release of heavy metals in the environment. However, traditional experimental approaches are time-consuming and inadequate to elucidate the complex binding relationships and configurations between iron (oxyhydr)oxides and heavy metals. Herein, a workflow that integrates the binding configuration data of 11 heavy metals on 7 iron (oxyhydr)oxides and then trains machine learning models to predict unknown binding configurations was proposed. The well-trained multi-grained cascade forest models exhibited high accuracy (> 90%) and predictive performance (R2 ∼ 0.75). The underlying effects of mineral properties, metal ion species, and environmental conditions on mineral-metal binding configurations were fully interpreted with data mining. Moreover, the metal release rate was further successfully predicted based on mineral-metal binding configurations. This work provides a method to accurately and quickly predict the binding configuration of heavy metals on iron (oxyhydr)oxides, which would provide guidance for estimating the potential release behavior of heavy metals and remediating heavy metal pollution in natural and engineered environments.

Climate change and its impact on infectious diseases in Asia

ABSTRACT

Climate change, particularly increasing temperature, changes in rainfall, extreme weather events and changes in vector ecology, impacts the transmission of many climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Asia is the world's most populous, rapidly evolving and diverse continent, and it is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Climate change intersects with population, sociodemographic and geographical factors, amplifying the public health impact of infectious diseases and potentially widening existing disparities. In this narrative review, we outline the evidence of the impact of climate change on infectious diseases of importance in Asia, including vector-borne diseases, food- and water-borne diseases, antimicrobial resistance and other infectious diseases. We also highlight the imperative need for strategic intersectoral collaboration at the national and global levels and for the health sector to implement adaptation and mitigation measures, including responsibility for its own greenhouse gas emissions.

Where should "Humans" be in "One Health"? Lessons from COVID-19 for One Health

The culling of animals that are infected, or suspected to be infected, with COVID-19 has fuelled outcry. What might have contributed to the ongoing debates and discussions about animal rights protection amid global health crises is the lack of a unified understanding and internationally agreed-upon definition of "One Health". The term One Health is often utilised to describe the imperative to protect the health of humans, animals, and plants, along with the overarching ecosystem in an increasingly connected and globalized world. However, to date, there is a dearth of research on how to balance public health decisions that could impact all key stakeholders under the umbrella of One Health, particularly in contexts where human suffering has been immense. To shed light on the issue, this paper discusses whether One Health means "human-centred connected health" in a largely human-dominated planet, particularly amid crises like COVID-19. The insights of this study could help policymakers make more informed decisions that could effectively and efficiently protect human health while balancing the health and well-being of the rest of the inhabitants of our shared planet Earth.

Canine Schistosomiasis in the West Coast: Heterobilharzia americana in Two Natural Intermediate Hosts Found in the Colorado River, California

The emergence of infectious diseases presents a significant global health, economic, and security risk. Climate change can unexpectedly lead to the spread of pathogens, vectors, or hosts into new areas, contributing to the rise of infectious diseases. Surveillance plays a crucial role in monitoring disease trends and implementing control strategies. In this study, we document the first discovery of Heterobilharzia americana, a parasitic schistosome of mammals and its intermediate hosts Galba cubensis and Galba humilis along the banks of the Colorado River in California. We conducted multiple samplings of snails from various locations in the region with a previous history of canine schistosomiasis. Nucleotide sequencing of the multiple regions of the snails' and parasites' DNA revealed the coexistence of G. cubensis and G. humilis, both infected with H. americana. Phylogenetic analyses further validate the presence of H. americana in California, suggesting a wider distribution than previously reported. Our findings have implications for public health, veterinary medicine, and biodiversity conservation, contributing to developing effective control strategies to prevent the spread of this emerging infectious disease.

Overlooked uneven progress across sustainable development goals at the global scale: Challenges and opportunities

Differences in progress across sustainable development goals (SDGs) are widespread globally; meanwhile, the rising call for prioritizing specific SDGs may exacerbate such gaps. Nevertheless, how these progress differences would influence global sustainable development has been long neglected. Here, we present the first quantitative assessment of SDGs' progress differences globally by adopting the SDGs progress evenness index. Our results highlight that the uneven progress across SDGs has been a hindrance to sustainable development because (1) it is strongly associated with many public health risks (e.g., air pollution), social inequalities (e.g., gender inequality, modern slavery, wealth gap), and a reduction in life expectancy; (2) it is also associated with deforestation and habitat loss in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, increasing the challenges related to biodiversity conservation; (3) most countries with low average SDGs performance show lower progress evenness, which further hinders their fulfillment of SDGs; and (4) many countries with high average SDGs performance also showcase stagnation or even retrogression in progress evenness, which is partly ascribed to the antagonism between climate actions and other goals. These findings highlight that while setting SDGs priorities may be more realistic under the constraints of multiple global stressors, caution must be exercised to avoid new problems from intensifying uneven progress across goals. Moreover, our study reveals that the urgent needs regarding SDGs of different regions seem complementary, emphasizing that regional collaborations (e.g., demand-oriented carbon trading between SDGs poorly performed and well-performed countries) may promote sustainable development achievements at the global scale.

Local Economic Conditions Affect Aedes albopictus Management

Invasive mosquitoes are an emerging public health issue, as many species are competent vectors for pathogens. We assessed how multiple environmental and socio-economic factors affected the engagement of municipalities in Italy (n = 7679) in actions against Aedes albopictus, an invasive mosquito affecting human health and well-being, between 2000 and 2020. We collected information about mosquito control from official documents and municipal websites and modeled the role played by multiple environmental and socioeconomic factors characterizing each municipality through the random forest algorithm. Municipalities are more prone to manage A. albopictus if more urbanized, in lowlands and with long infestation periods. Moreover, these variables are more predictive of management in municipalities with a high median income and thus more economic resources. Only 25.5% of Italian municipalities approved regulations for managing A. albopictus, and very few of them were in Southern Italy, the most deprived area of the country. Our findings indicate that local economic conditions moderate the effect of other drivers of mosquito control and ultimately can lead to better management of A. albopictus. If the management of invasive mosquitoes, or other forms of global change, is subjected to local economic conditions, economic inequalities will jeopardize the success of large-scale policies, also raising issues of environmental and climate justice.

One Health: A Holistic Approach to Tackling Global Health Issues

One Health approach is a concept which provides a comprehensive framework to address the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health in tackling global health challenges. It emphasizes the urgent need for a multidisciplinary approach to effectively address emerging infectious diseases, antimicrobial resistance, and environmental degradation. The article highlights the importance of collaboration, communication, and coordination among diverse stakeholders as well as the integration of human and animal healthcare systems. It emphasizes the significance of sharing data, expertise, and resources to enhance disease surveillance and rapid response. The transformative potential of One Health in addressing global health issues and creating a resilient future is underscored. This article provides valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and healthcare professionals, emphasizing the integration of disciplines to safeguard health and the environment.

Merging socioecological variables to predict risk of Chagas disease

How far are we from predicting the occurrence of zoonotic diseases? In this paper we have made use of both socioecological and ecological variables to predict Chagas disease occurrence. Chagas disease involves, Trypanosoma cruzi, a complex life-cycle parasite which requires two hosts: blood-feeding triatomine insects and vertebrate hosts including humans. We have used a common risk assessment method combined with datasets that imply critical environmental and socioeconomic drivers of Chagas dynamics to predict the occurrence of this disease. We also carried out a network analysis to assess the interactions among triatomines and mammal host species given their human contact via whether hunted, domesticated or associated with anthropogenic landscapes in Mexico. We found that social backwardness variation, lack of health services and altitude had the largest relative influence Chagas events. Triatoma pallidipennis made use of the largest host diversity. Host species shared by the highest number of different triatomines were a woodrat, the highly appreciated bushmeat, and racoon. These results indicate both the predominance of socio-economic factors over ecological ones, and how close we are from predicting zoonotic diseases.

An Optional Delinked Reward System: Making Pharmaceutical Innovation Work for Everyone

Conflicts over pharmaceutical pricing are driven by the patients' need for affordable medicines and the producer's reward for the investments in developing innovative medicines. A single price cannot achieve both goals, as it will either obstruct access by patients or provide too low a return to investors. This has led to calls to "delink" the payment for innovation from the price paid for drugs, so that both goals can be met efficiently and without conflict. However, the details of how best to do that are unclear. This paper proposes a specific implementation for delinking the Optional Delinked Reward System (ODRS), which integrates ideas from numerous pharmaceutical reimbursement systems. The ODRS would allow firms to choose either to negotiate a sales price for a drug (as is the current practice in most countries) or to sell their drug at a low "generic" price with a supplementary "delinked" reward based on assessed health benefit. This model builds on recent innovations in drug reimbursement including the UK's Antibiotic Subscription Pilot and the Pneumococcal Vaccine Advanced Market Commitment. The ODRS would ensure affordable and immediate access for patients and a fair reward for innovators.

Preparing healthcare facilities in sub-Saharan Africa for future outbreaks: insights from a multi-country digital self-assessment of COVID-19 preparedness

BACKGROUND

Despite previous experience with epidemics, African healthcare systems were inadequately prepared and substantially impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Limited information about the level of COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa hampers policy decision-making to fight future outbreaks in the region, while maintaining essential healthcare services running.

METHODS

Between May-November 2020, we performed a survey study with SafeCare4Covid - a free digital self-assessment application - to evaluate the COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa following World Health Organization guidelines. The tool assessed (i) COVID-19-related capabilities with 31 questions; and (ii) availability of essential medical supplies with a 23-supplies checklist. Tailored quality improvement plans were provided after assessments. Information about facilities' location, type, and ownership was also collected.

RESULTS

Four hundred seventy-one facilities in 11 African countries completed the capability assessment; 412 also completed the supplies checklist. The average capability score on a scale of 0-100 (n=471) was 58.0 (interquartile range 40.0-76.0), and the average supplies score (n=412) was 61.6 (39.0-83.0). Both scores were significantly lower in rural (capability score, mean 53.6 [95%CI:50.3-57.0]/supplies score, 59.1 [55.5-62.8]) versus urban facilities (capability score, 65.2 [61.7-68.7]/supplies score, 70.7 [67.2-74.1]) (P<0.0001 for both comparisons). Likewise, lower scores were found for public versus private clinics, and for primary healthcare centres versus hospitals. Guidelines for triage and isolation, clinical management of COVID-19, staff mental support, and contact tracing forms were largely missing. Handwashing stations were partially equipped in 33% of facilities. The most missing medical supply was COVID-19 specimen collection material (71%), while 43% of facilities did not have N95/FFP2 respirators and 19% lacked medical masks.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of public and private African facilities providing basic healthcare in rural areas, lacked fundamental COVID-19-related capabilities and life-saving personal protective equipment. Decentralization of epidemic preparedness efforts in these settings is warranted to protect healthcare workers and patients alike in future epidemics. Digital tools are of great value to timely measure and improve epidemic preparedness of healthcare facilities, inform decision-making, create a more stakeholder-broad approach and increase health-system resilience for future disease outbreaks.

Diversity of astroviruses in wild animals in Yunnan province, China

BACKGROUND

Astroviruses (AstVs) are single-stranded RNA viruses that have been detected in a wide range of mammals and birds. They are associated with numerous interspecies transmissions and viral recombination events, posing a threat to human and animal health.

METHODS

We collected 1,333 samples from wild animals, including bats, rodents, wild boars, and birds, from various states and cities in the Yunnan Province, China, between 2020 and 2023 to investigate the presence of AstVs. AstVs were detected using a polymerase chain reaction targeting the RdRp gene. Finally, the Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis software was used to construct the phylogenetic tree.

RESULTS

The overall positivity rate for AstVs was 7.12% in four species, indicating their widespread occurrence in the region. High genetic diversity among AstVs was observed in different animal species, suggesting the potential for interspecies transmission, particularly among rodents and birds. Additionally, we identified a novel AstV strain and, for the first time, provided information on the presence of bastroviruses in Yunnan, China.

CONCLUSIONS

The widespread distribution and high genetic diversity of AstVs, along with the observed potential for interspecies transmission, highlight the importance of further investigation and surveillance in the region. The findings emphasize the need for increased attention to AstVs and their potential impact on human and animal health in Yunnan and other regions.

A global-scale dataset of bat viral detection suggests that pregnancy reduces viral shedding

Understanding viral infection dynamics in wildlife hosts can help forecast zoonotic pathogen spillover and human disease risk. Bats are particularly important reservoirs of zoonotic viruses, including some of major public health concern such as Nipah virus, Hendra virus, and SARS-related coronaviruses. Previous work has suggested that metapopulation dynamics, seasonal reproductive patterns, and other bat life history characteristics might explain temporal variation in spillover of bat-associated viruses into people. Here, we analyze viral dynamics in free-ranging bat hosts, leveraging a multi-year, global-scale viral detection dataset that spans eight viral families and 96 bat species from 14 countries. We fit hierarchical Bayesian models that explicitly control for important sources of variation, including geographic region, specimen type, and testing protocols, while estimating the influence of reproductive status on viral detection in female bats. Our models revealed that late pregnancy had a negative effect on viral shedding across multiple data subsets, while lactation had a weaker influence that was inconsistent across data subsets. These results are unusual for mammalian hosts, but given recent findings that bats may have high individual viral loads and population-level prevalence due to dampening of antiviral immunity, we propose that it would be evolutionarily advantageous for pregnancy to either not further reduce immunity or actually increase the immune response, reducing viral load, shedding, and risk of fetal infection. This novel hypothesis would be valuable to test given its potential to help monitor, predict, and manage viral spillover risk from bats.

Isolation, characterization, and circulation sphere of a filovirus in fruit bats

Bats are associated with the circulation of most mammalian filoviruses (FiVs), with pathogenic ones frequently causing deadly hemorrhagic fevers in Africa. Divergent FiVs have been uncovered in Chinese bats, raising concerns about their threat to public health. Here, we describe a long-term surveillance to track bat FiVs at orchards, eventually resulting in the identification and isolation of a FiV, Dehong virus (DEHV), from Rousettus leschenaultii bats. DEHV has a typical filovirus-like morphology with a wide spectrum of cell tropism. Its entry into cells depends on the engagement of Niemann-Pick C1, and its replication is inhibited by remdesivir. DEHV has the largest genome size of filoviruses, with phylogenetic analysis placing it between the genera Dianlovirus and Orthomarburgvirus, suggesting its classification as the prototype of a new genus within the family Filoviridae. The continuous detection of viral RNA in the serological survey, together with the wide host distribution, has revealed that the region covering southern Yunnan, China, and bordering areas is a natural circulation sphere for bat FiVs. These emphasize the need for a better understanding of the pathogenicity and potential risk of FiVs in the region.

Potential zoonotic spillover at the human-animal interface: A mini-review

Wildlife markets and wet wildlife markets, a type of human-animal interface, are commonly trading centers for wild-caught and captive-exotic animals as well as their products. These markets provide an ideal environment for spillovers of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). These conditions may raise serious concerns, particularly in relation to wildlife species that frequently interact with humans and domestic animals. EIDs pose a significant risk to humans, ecosystems, and public health, as demonstrated by the current COVID-19 pandemic, and other previous outbreaks, including the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. Even though it seems appears impossible to eliminate EIDs, we may still be able to minimalize the risks and take several measures to prevent new EIDs originated from animals. The aim of this study was to review several types of human-animal interfaces with a high risk of zoonotic spillover, infectious agents, and animal hosts or reservoirs. Identifying those factors will support the development of interventions and effective disease control in human-animal interface settings.

Plant-derived strategies to fight against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused an unprecedented crisis, which has been exacerbated because specific drugs and treatments have not yet been developed. In the post-pandemic era, humans and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will remain in equilibrium for a long time. Therefore, we still need to be vigilant against mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants and other emerging human viruses. Plant-derived products are increasingly important in the fight against the pandemic, but a comprehensive review is lacking. This review describes plant-based strategies centered on key biological processes, such as SARS-CoV-2 transmission, entry, replication, and immune interference. We highlight the mechanisms and effects of these plant-derived products and their feasibility and limitations for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. The development of emerging technologies is driving plants to become production platforms for various antiviral products, improving their medicinal potential. We believe that plant-based strategies will be an important part of the solutions for future pandemics.

Assessing the Human Health Benefits of Climate Mitigation, Pollution Prevention, and Biodiversity Preservation

Background

Since the Industrial Revolution, humanity has amassed great wealth and achieved unprecedented material prosperity. These advances have come, however, at great cost to the planet. They are guided by an economic model that focuses almost exclusively on short-term gain, while ignoring natural capital and human capital. They have relied on the combustion of vast quantities of fossil fuels, massive consumption of the earth's resources, and production and environmental release of enormous quantities of chemicals, pesticides, fertilizers, and plastics. They have caused climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, the "Triple Planetary Crisis". They are responsible for more than 9 million premature deaths per year and for widespread disease - impacts that fall disproportionately upon the poor and the vulnerable.

Goals

To map the human health impacts of climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. To outline a framework for assessing the health benefits of interventions against these threats.

Findings

Actions taken by national governments and international agencies to mitigate climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss can improve health, prevent disease, save lives, and enhance human well-being. Yet assessment of health benefits is largely absent from evaluations of environmental remediation programs. This represents a lost opportunity to quantify the full benefits of environmental remediation and to educate policy makers and the public.

Recommendations

We recommend that national governments and international agencies implementing interventions against climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss develop metrics and strategies for quantifying the health benefits of these interventions. We recommend that they deploy these tools in parallel with assessments of ecologic and economic benefits. Health metrics developed by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study may provide a useful starting point.Incorporation of health metrics into assessments of environmental restoration will require building transdisciplinary collaborations. Environmental scientists and engineers will need to work with health scientists to establish evaluation systems that link environmental and economic data with health data. Such systems will assist international agencies as well as national and local governments in prioritizing environmental interventions.

Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Development of a new method framework to estimate the nonlinear and interaction relationship between environmental factors and soil heavy metals

The intricate and multifaceted nature of soil system profoundly influences the highly complex and often nonlinear changes that soil heavy metals (HM) undergo. Spatial heterogeneity, location and scale variability, and the interaction and superposition among environmental drivers challenged researchers to determine the sophisticated nature of soil HMs changes at the regional scale. This study aims to develop a new method framework and selects Ningbo as the case study to apportion the environmental factors responsible for soil HMs pollution that include Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg, As, Cu, Zn and Ni, focusing on nonlinearity and interaction. We harnessed the Random Forest model to apportion the environmental drivers of soil HM change. The directionality and shape of the nonlinear relationship between HMs and their individual contributors were derived by Partial Dependence Plots. The interactions of multiple drivers were quantitatively assessed by the Conditional Inference Tree. Our results demonstrated that soil HMs in the study area varied spatially. Soil HMs pollution was mitigated by natural factors and anthropogenic factors. The main influencing factors were pH, soil parent material type, enterprise activities, and agricultural application. The effects of some factors on soil HMs showed a monotonic linear trend, but some have apparent threshold effects. The direction of influence on soil HMs will shift when pH and phosphate fertilizer reach a specific value. The addition of enterprises in the area would rarely have an impact on the HMs pollution once it reached around 2 per km2 because of the industrial agglomeration. Soil HM concentrations were mainly from multi-pollutants and were governed by a combination of environmental factors. Our study provided managers and policymakers with site-specific and definite guidelines for preventing and controlling soil HM pollution.

Modern technologies and solutions to enhance surveillance and response systems for emerging zoonotic diseases

Background

Zoonotic diseases originating in animals pose a significant threat to global public health. Recent outbreaks, such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), have caused widespread illness, death, and socioeconomic disruptions worldwide. To cope with these diseases effectively, it is crucial to strengthen surveillance capabilities and establish rapid response systems.

Aim

The aim of this review to examine the modern technologies and solutions that have the potential to enhance zoonotic disease surveillance and outbreak responses and provide valuable insights into how cutting-edge innovations could be leveraged to prevent, detect, and control emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks. Herein, we discuss advanced tools including big data analytics, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, geographic information systems, remote sensing, molecular diagnostics, point-of-care testing, telemedicine, digital contact tracing, and early warning systems.

Results

These technologies enable real-time monitoring, the prediction of outbreak risks, early anomaly detection, rapid diagnosis, and targeted interventions during outbreaks. When integrated through collaborative partnerships, these strategies can significantly improve the speed and effectiveness of zoonotic disease control. However, several challenges persist, particularly in resource-limited settings, such as infrastructure limitations, costs, data integration and training requirements, and ethical implementation.

Conclusion

With strategic planning and coordinated efforts, modern technologies and solutions offer immense potential to bolster surveillance and outbreak responses, and serve as a critical resource against emerging zoonotic disease threats worldwide.