Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators

How urban heat island magnifies hot day exposure: Global unevenness derived from differences in built landscape

Urban heat-islands reportedly expose densely populated areas to higher temperatures. However, the magnitude of the impact of extra hot-day exposure (EHDE) and its association with the effects of urbanization on a global scale remain unclear. As local climate zones (LCZs) refine the impact of differences in urban built-type on heat-island effects, this study aimed to quantify the global EHDE caused by the urban heat-island effect based on LCZs and explored the joint impacts of low gross-domestic product and an increasing vulnerable-age population on EHDE. The results showed that EHDE accounted for 48.01 % of overall hot-day exposure. Additionally, despite a significant geographic differentiation among LCZ types with the highest EHDE intensity, they are almost typically building-intensive LCZs. Furthermore, our study revealed regional differences in the structure of the EHDE share in LCZs, which support the adoption of targeted EHDE mitigation strategies.

Methodological framework for assessing malaria risk associated with climate change in Côte d'Ivoire

Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity among children under five years of age and pregnant women in Côte d'Ivoire. We assessed the geographical distribution of its risk in all climatic zones of the country based on the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach to climate risk analysis. This methodology considers three main driving components affecting the risk: Hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Considering the malaria impact chain, various variables were identified for each of the risk factors and for each variable, a measurable indicator was identified. These indicators were then standardized, weighted through a participatory approach based on expert judgement and finally aggregated to calculate current and future risk. With regard to the four climatic zones in the country: Attieen (sub-equatorial regime) in the South, Baouleen (humid tropical) in the centre, Sudanese or equatorial (tropical transition regime) in the North and the mountainous (humid) in the West. Malaria risk among pregnant women and children under 5 was found to be higher in the mountainous and the Baouleen climate, with the hazard highest in the mountainous climate and Exposure very high in the Attieen climate. The most vulnerable districts were those in Baouleen, Attieen and the mountainous climates. By 2050, the IPCC representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios predict an increase in risk in almost all climatic zones, compared to current levels, with the former considering a moderate scenario, with an emissions peak around 2040 followed by a decline and RCP 8.5 giving the highest baseline emissions scenario, in which emissions continue to rise. It is expected that the AR5 approach to climate risk analysis will be increasingly used in climate risk assessment studies so that it can be better assessed at a variety of scales.

Shared insights for heat health risk adaptation in metropolitan areas of developing countries

Global warming has led to a surge in heat health risks (HHRs), the impacts of which are particularly pronounced in metropolitan areas of developing countries. In the current study, six metropolitan areas - Beijing, China; Cairo, Egypt; Jakarta, Indonesia; Mumbai, India; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and Tehran, Iran - were selected as the study area to further differentiate the built-up landscapes by utilizing the concept of local climate zones. Moreover, we assessed the similarities and differences in HHR associated with the landscape. Results revealed a 30.67% higher HHR in compact built-up landscapes than in the open built-up type. Urban green spaces played an effective but differentiated role in mitigating HHR. That is, low vegetation in urbanized areas and trees in suburban areas significantly mitigated HHR. Collectively, our findings emphasize the role of effective planning and management in addressing HHR and provide empirical support for implementing HHR mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Demographic disparity in diurnal surface urban Heat Island exposure across local climate zones: A case study of Chongqing, China

Surface urban heat island (SUHI) exposure significantly harms human health during rapid urbanization. Identifying the areas and demographic groups under high SUHI exposure is critical for mitigating heat-related hazards. However, despite broad concern in US-European countries, rare studies discuss the diurnal SUHI exposure of demographic subgroups across Local Climate Zones (LCZs) in Chinese cities. Therefore, taking Chongqing as the case study, we measured the diurnal SUHI exposure of demographic subgroups (e.g., gender, age, and income) across different LCZs (compact, open, and sparsely-built zones) by coupling the ECOSTRESS data and mobile phone signaling data. The results indicated that Chongqing's compact high/middle-rise zones suffered a higher SUHI exposure due to high land surface temperature (LST) and a larger size of population than open zones. Despite a relatively low population density, extremely high LST in compact low-rise zones (e.g., industrial parks) contributes to considerable accumulated SUHI exposure. The SUHI exposure risk exhibited the differences between daytime and nighttime, resulting from SUHI variation and population flow. The demographic analysis showed that Chongqing's demographic subgroups are exposed disproportionately to SUHI. Elderly groups suffered relatively high exposure in compact high-rise zones. Low-incomers witnessed a high exposure in open zones. These findings call for alleviating SUHI exposure risk by targeting vulnerable groups and high-intensity exposure areas.

Gender disparities in summer outdoor heat risk across China: Findings from a national county-level assessment during 1991-2020

Increasing anthropogenic global warming has emerged as a significant challenge to human health in China, as extreme heat hazards increasingly threaten outdoor-exposed populations. Differences in thermal comfort, outdoor activity duration, and social vulnerability between females and males may exacerbate gender inequalities in heat-related health risks, which have been overlooked by previous studies. Here, we combine three heat hazards and outdoor activity duration to identify the spatiotemporal variation in gender-specific heat risk in China during 1991-2020. We found that females' heat risk tends to be higher than that of males. Gender disparities in heat risk decrease in southern regions, while those in northern regions remain severe. Males are prone to overheating in highly urbanized areas, while females in low urbanized areas. Males' overheating risk is mainly attributed to population clustering associated with prolonged outdoor activity time and skewed social resource allocation. In contrast, females' overheating risk is primarily affected by social inequalities. Our findings suggest that China needs to further diminish gender disparities and accelerate climate adaptation planning.

Association of neighborhood-level socioeconomic status and urban heat in China: Evidence from Hangzhou

The escalating contradiction between global urban development and thermal environments has become increasingly apparent, underscoring the imperative to address social inequality in heat exposure and advocate for environmental justice (EJ) in the pursuit of sustainable urban development. To bridge the research gap in this domain, a comprehensive study was conducted to examine the correlation mechanism linking the thermal environment with the socioeconomic status (SES) of Chinese cities, employing Hangzhou as a representative case-a pivotal city among China's "four fire stoves". The investigation involved analyzing the spatial distribution pattern of diurnal Land Surface Temperature (LST) during the summer months spanning 2016 to 2018 (July to September). For SES characterization, a holistic indicator was established. Community-level LST variables were derived from LST surfaces obtained through the Terra and Aqua satellite MODIS sensors, with the community serving as the fundamental unit of analysis. The relationship between SES and LST was explored using random forest regression (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and support vector regression (SVR) to assess socioeconomic inequality in urban heat. The findings reveal that (1) RF exhibits the highest fitting accuracy and adeptly elucidates the nonlinear relationship and marginal effects between LST variables and SES. (2) Community SES in the Hangzhou metropolitan area exhibits spatial clustering. (3) Residents of low and middle SES communities experience heightened heat inequality. (4) A complex nonlinear relationship exists between daytime and nighttime LST and SES, with significant social disparities in urban heat within specific temperature thresholds. When deciding on measures to advance thermal environmental justice, it is crucial to prioritize both relatively disadvantaged groups and specific temperature intervals. This study departs from conventional approaches, exploring the nonlinear relationship between SES and urban heat at a fine scale, thereby assisting urban planners in developing effective strategies.

Construction of a cold island network for the urban heat island effect mitigation

The urban heat island (UHI) effect seriously challenges sustainable urban development strategies and livability. Numerous studies have explored the UHI problem from the perspective of isolated blue and green patches, ignoring the overall function of cold island networks. This study aims to explore the construction method of cold island network by integrating scattered cold island resources, rationally guiding urban planning and construction, and providing effective ideas and methods for improving the urban thermal environment. Taking the central city of Fuzhou as an example, the identification of the cold island core source (CICS) was optimized by applying relative land surface temperature (LST), morphological spatial pattern analysis, and landscape connectivity analysis. The combined resistance surface was constructed based on a spatial principal component analysis. Subsequently, the cold island network was constructed by applying circuit theory and identifying the key nodes. The results showed that the central and eastern parts of the study area experienced the most significant UHI effects and there was a tendency for them to cluster. Overall, 48 core sources, 104 corridors, 89 cooling nodes, and 34 heating nodes were identified. The average LST of the CICSs was 28.43 °C, significantly lower than the average LST of the entire study area (31.50 °C), and the 104 cold corridors were classified into three categories according to their importance. Different targeting measures should be adopted for the cooling and heating nodes to maintain the stability of the cold island network and prevent the formation of a heat network. Finally, we suggest a model for urban cold island network construction and explore methods for mitigating issues with UHI to achieve proactive and organized adaptation and mitigation of thermal environmental risks in urban areas, as well as to encourage sustainable urban development.

The combined effect of air pollution and non-optimal temperature on mortality in Shandong Province, China: establishment of air health index

PURPOSE

The air health index (AHI) captures the combined effects of air pollution and non-optimal temperatures and helps assess the atmospheric environment's overall health risk. Shandong Province is a crucial industrial base in China, and the health effects of air pollution and non-optimal temperature cannot be ignored. To construct an AHI for Shandong Province and assess the district-level mortality burden due to AHI in the study area.

METHODS

Daily district-specific mortality, meteorological, and air pollution data over 2013-2018 were collected in Shandong Province, China. The AHI construction eventually incorporated PM2.5 and NO2, O3, and non-optimal temperatures. Attributable fraction (AF) and attributable number (AN) were used to estimate the district-specific mortality burden attributable to AHI.

RESULTS

The average AHI value observed in Shandong Province was 6. Our research revealed a positive association between the total AHI and total mortality, with an overall trend of a slow increase followed by a rapid increase. The exposure-response curves, when stratified by gender, age, and cause of death, were approximately consistent with the overall trend. The provincial attributable fraction (AF) was 5.31% (95% CI 4.58%, 5.91%), and the attributable number (AN) was 188,246 (95% CI 162,396, 209,533). Overall, higher ANs mainly appeared in the southwestern area, while higher values of AF were observed in the central-eastern and central-northern areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The air health index performs well in predicting death burden and can convey health risks related to exposure to the ambient environment to the public.

Advancing the community health vulnerability index for wildland fire smoke exposure

Wildland fire smoke risks are not uniformly distributed across people and places, and the most vulnerable communities are often disproportionately impacted. This study develops a county level community health vulnerability index (CHVI) for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using three major vulnerability components: adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure at the national and regional level. We first calculated sensitivity and adaptive capacity sub-indices using nine sensitivity and twenty adaptive capacity variables. These sub-indices were then combined with an exposure sub-index, which is based on the Community Multiscale Air Quality data (2008-2018), to develop CHVI. Finally, we conducted several analyses with the derived indices to: 1) explore associations between the level of fine particulate matter from wildland fires (fire-PM2.5) and the sub-indices/CHVI; 2) measure the impact of fire-PM2.5 on the increase in the annual number of days with 12-35 μg/m3 (moderate) and >35 μg/m3 (at or above unhealthy for sensitive groups) based on the US EPA Air Quality Index categories, and 3) calculate population size in different deciles of the sub-indices/CHVI. This study has three main findings. First, we showed that the counties with higher daily fire-PM2.5 concentration tend to have lower adaptive capacity and higher sensitivity and vulnerability. Relatedly, the counties at high risk tended to experience a greater increase in the annual number of days with 12-35 μg/m3 and >35 μg/m3 than their counterparts. Second, we found that 16.1, 12.0, and 17.6 million people out of 332 million in CONUS reside in the counties in the lowest adaptive capacity decile, highest sensitivity decile, and highest vulnerability decile, respectively. Third, we identified that the US Northwest, California, and Southern regions tended to have higher vulnerability than others. Accurately identifying a community's vulnerability to wildfire smoke can help individuals, researchers, and policymakers better understand, prepare for, and respond to future wildland fire events.

Diurnal urban heat risk assessment using extreme air temperatures and real-time population data in Seoul

Previous heat risk assessments have limitations in obtaining accurate heat hazard sources and capturing population distributions, which change over time. This study proposes a diurnal heat risk assessment framework incorporating spatiotemporal air temperature and real-time population data. Daytime and nighttime heat risk maps were generated using hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components in Seoul during the summer of 2018. The hazard was derived from the daily extreme air temperatures obtained using the stacking machine learning model. Exposure was calculated using de facto population density, and vulnerability was assessed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators. The resulting maps revealed distinct diurnal spatial patterns, with high-risk areas in the urban core during the day and dispersed at night. Daytime heat risk was strongly correlated with heat-related illness ratios (R = 0.8) and accurately captured temporal fluctuations in heat-related illness incidence. The proposed framework can guide site-specific adaptation and response plans for dynamic urban heat events.

Unpacking the inter- and intra-urban differences of the association between health and exposure to heat and air quality in Australia using global and local machine learning models

Environmental stressors including high temperature and air pollution cause health problems. However, understanding how the combined exposure to heat and air pollution affects both physical and mental health remains insufficient due to the complexity of such effects mingling with human society, urban and natural environments. Our study roots in the Social Ecological Theory and employs a tri-environmental conceptual framework (i.e., across social, built and natural environment) to examine how the combined exposure to heat and air pollution affect self-reported physical and mental health via, for the first time, the fine-grained nationwide investigation in Australia and highlight how such effects vary across inter- and intra-urban areas. We conducted an ecological study to explore the importance of heat and air quality to physical and mental health by considering 48 tri-environmental confounders through the global and local random forest regression models, as advanced machine learning methods with the advantage of revealing the spatial heterogeneity of variables. Our key findings are threefold. First, the social and built environmental factors are important to physical and mental health in both urban and rural areas, and even more important than exposure to heat and air pollution. Second, the relationship between temperature and air quality and health follows a V-shape, reflecting people's different adaptation and tolerance to temperature and air quality. Third, the important roles that heat and air pollution play in physical and mental health are most obvious in the inner-city and near inner-city areas of the major capital cities, as well as in the industrial zones in peri-urban regions and in Darwin city with a low-latitude. We draw several policy implications to minimise the inter- and intra-urban differences in healthcare access and service distribution to populations with different sensitivity to heat and air quality across urban and rural areas. Our conceptual framework can also be applied to examine the relationship between other environmental problems and health outcomes in the era of a warming climate.

Has the IPCC's revised vulnerability concept been well adopted?

In the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports (TAR and AR4, respectively) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability is conceived as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, in its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) and Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC redefined and separated exposure, and it reconceptualized vulnerability to be a function of sensitivity and capacity to cope and adapt. In this review, we found that the IPCC's revised vulnerability concept has not been well adopted and that researchers' preference, possible misinterpretation, possible confusion, and possible unawareness are among the possible technical and practical reasons. Among the issues that need further clarification from the IPCC is whether or not such a reconceptualization of vulnerability in the SREX/AR5 necessarily implies nullification of the TAR/AR4 vulnerability concept as far as the IPCC is concerned.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Heatwave Hazards in the Chinese Mainland for the Period 1990-2019

Heatwaves occur frequently in summer, severely harming the natural environment and human society. While a few long-term spatiotemporal heatwave studies have been conducted in China at the grid scale, their shortcomings involve their discrete distribution and poor spatiotemporal continuity. We used daily data from 691 meteorological stations to obtain torridity index (TI) and heatwave index (HWI) datasets (0.01°) in order to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of heatwaves in the Chinese mainland for the period of 1990-2019. The results were as follows: (1) The TI values rose but with fluctuations, with the largest increase occurring in North China in July. The areas with hazard levels of medium and above accounted for 22.16% of the total, mainly in the eastern and southern provinces of China, South Tibet, East and South Xinjiang, and Chongqing. (2) The study areas were divided into four categories according to the spatiotemporal distribution of hazards. The "high hazard and rapidly increasing" and "low hazard and continually increasing" areas accounted for 8.71% and 41.33% of the total, respectively. (3) The "ten furnaces" at the top of the provincial capitals were Zhengzhou, Nanchang, Wuhan, Changsha, Shijiazhuang, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Haikou, Chongqing, and Hefei. While the urbanization level and population aging in the developed areas were further increased, the continuously increasing heatwave hazard should be fully considered.

Heat Adaptation among the Elderly in Spain (1983-2018)

The capacity for adaptation to climate change is limited, and the elderly rank high among the most exposed population groups. To date, few studies have addressed the issue of heat adaptation, and little is known about the long-term effects of exposure to heat. One indicator that allows the ascertainment of a population's level of adaptation to heat is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which links temperature and daily mortality. The aim of this study was to ascertain, firstly, adaptation to heat among persons aged ≥ 65 years across the period 1983 to 2018 through analysis of the MMT; and secondly, the trend in such adaptation to heat over time with respect to the total population. A retrospective longitudinal ecological time series study was conducted, using data on daily mortality and maximum daily temperature across the study period. Over time, the MMT was highest among elderly people, with a value of 28.6 °C (95%CI 28.3-28.9) versus 28.2 °C (95%CI 27.83-28.51) for the total population, though this difference was not statistically significant. A total of 62% of Spanish provinces included populations of elderly people that had adapted to heat during the study period. In general, elderly persons' level of adaptation registered an average value of 0.11 (°C/decade).

Nexus of heat-vulnerable chronic diseases and heatwave mediated through tri-environmental interactions: A nationwide fine-grained study in Australia

The warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to the increased prevalence of heat-vulnerable chronic diseases in many regions of the world. However, understanding the relationship between heat-vulnerable chronic diseases and heatwaves remains incomplete due to the complexity of such a relationship mingling with human society, urban and natural environments. Our study extends the Social Ecological Theory by constructing a tri-environmental conceptual framework (i.e., across social, built, and natural environments) and contributes to the first nationwide study of the relationship between heat-vulnerable chronic diseases and heatwaves in Australia. We utilize the random forest regression model to explore the importance of heatwaves and 48 tri-environmental variables that contribute to the prevalence of six types of heat-vulnerable diseases. We further apply the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations and the accumulated local effects analysis to interpret how the heat-disease nexus is mediated through tri-environments and varied across urban and rural space. The overall effect of heatwaves on diseases varies across disease types and geographical contexts (latitudes; inland versus coast). The local heat-disease nexus follows a J-shape function-becoming sharply positive after a certain threshold of heatwaves-reflecting that people with the onset of different diseases have various sensitivity and tolerance to heatwaves. However, such effects are relatively marginal compared to tri-environmental variables. We propose a number of policy implications on reducing urban-rural disparity in healthcare access and service distribution, delineating areas, and identifying the variations of sensitivity to heatwaves across urban/rural space and disease types. Our conceptual framework can be further applied to examine the relationship between other environmental problems and health outcomes.

Increased moist heat stress risk across China under warming climate

Heatwaves have afflicted human health, ecosystem, and socioeconomy and are expected to intensify under warming climate. However, few efforts have been directed to moist heat stress (MHS) considering relative humidity and wind speed, and moist heat stress risk (MHSR) considering exposure and vulnerability. Here we showed MHS and MHSR variations across China during 1998-2100 using China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System datasets, the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) merged datasets, Gross Domestic Product, population and leaf area index. We detected increased MHS across China under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Specifically, the historical MHS occurred mostly during mid-July to mid-August. We found increasing trends of 0.08%/year, 0.249%/year, and 0.669%/year in the MHS-affected areas under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively. Furthermore, we observed the highest increasing rate of MHSR in Northwest and Southwest China, while the MHSR across Northeast and North China under SSP126 shifted from increasing to decreasing trends. Noteworthy is that the increasing trend of MHSR under SSP585 is 1.5-2.6 times larger than that under SSP245, especially in North and South China. This study highlights spatiotemporal evolutions of MHS and MHSR and mitigation to moisture heat stress in a warming climate.

Assessment of spatiotemporal changes of ecological environment quality of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in China based on MRSEI

The Ecological Environment Quality (EEQ) is an important foundation for the sustainable development of society and economy. To assess the spatiotemporal changes of the EEQ in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), we selected MODIS images of 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 to construct the Modified Remote Sensing Ecological Index (MRSEI) based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Then, we evaluated the spatiotemporal changes and spatial autocorrelation of the EEQ in the YRDUA. The results showed that: the EEQ of the YRDUA was improved from 2001 to 2011, deteriorated from 2011 to 2016, and improved from 2016 to 2021. The overall EEQ of the YRDUA was at moderate or excellent level, and the EEQ in the south was better than that in the north. The EEQ of the southern cities in the study area was better and more stable, while that of the northern cities was relatively poor and changes relatively drastic. The EEQ of the YRDUA was mainly unchanged and improved from 2001 to 2021. The regions with improved EEQ were mainly distributed in the north and west, while those with deteriorated EEQ were mainly distributed in the east and south. The EEQ of the YRDUA was improved gradually from 2001 to 2006, and relatively stable from 2006 to 2011. From 2011 to 2016, the changes were drastic and the EEQ deteriorated greatly; while from 2016 to 2021, the EEQ of the YRDUA was improved, and the area of ecological deterioration was significantly reduced. From 2001 to 2021, the Globalmoran’s I value ranged from 0.838 ~ 0.918. In the past 20 years, NS area in the YRDUA accounted for the highest proportion, while the HH aggregation was mainly distributed in the southern part of the YRDUA, while LL aggregation was mainly distributed in the northern part, indicated that the EEQ in the southern part was better than that in the northern part. This study provides a promising approach to assess the spatiotemporal changes of EEQ in urban areas, which is crucial to formulate the ecosystem protection policies and sustainable development strategies of YRDUA.

The Impact of Heatwaves on Mortality and Morbidity and the Associated Vulnerability Factors: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

This study aims to investigate the current impacts of extreme temperature and heatwaves on human health in terms of both mortality and morbidity. This systematic review analyzed the impact of heatwaves on mortality, morbidity, and the associated vulnerability factors, focusing on the sensitivity component.

METHODS

This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 flow checklist. Four databases (Scopus, Web of Science, EBSCOhost, PubMed) were searched for articles published from 2012 to 2022. Those eligible were evaluated using the Navigation Guide Systematic Review framework.

RESULTS

A total of 32 articles were included in the systematic review. Heatwave events increased mortality and morbidity incidence. Sociodemographic (elderly, children, male, female, low socioeconomic, low education), medical conditions (cardiopulmonary diseases, renal disease, diabetes, mental disease), and rural areas were crucial vulnerability factors.

CONCLUSIONS

While mortality and morbidity are critical aspects for measuring the impact of heatwaves on human health, the sensitivity in the context of sociodemographic, medical conditions, and locality posed a higher vulnerability to certain groups. Therefore, further research on climate change and health impacts on vulnerability may help stakeholders strategize effective plans to reduce the effect of heatwaves.

A synthetic water-heat-vegetation biodiversity nexus approach to assess coastal vulnerability in eastern China

Climate change pressure and biodiversity degradation in coastal regions have caused an increase in urban vulnerability. Current coastal vulnerability studies fail to consider the interactions among the perturbations. Increases in such interactions contribute to the indeterminate changes in the ecosystem productivity and impact on human well-being. Therefore, by integrating water, heat, and vegetation biodiversity (WHB) indicators using catastrophe theory in the study, the interaction among subsystems was explored to expound on the multi-effect of the urban. The results showed that (1) the overall vulnerability of China's coastal cities has increased, and high-value areas were mainly distributed in the three southern provinces; (2) the spatial-temporal pattern of vulnerability was highly heterogeneous. As low-low clusters, Shanghai and its surrounding cities exhibited spatial aggregation characteristics; (3) social, physical and financial capitals were the first three main adaptive capacity factors. The distance-based linear model (DistLM) evidenced that per capita GDP, and road density explained about 30 % and 10 % of the difference in vulnerability variation. The proposed framework could help decision-makers detect how vulnerable coastal areas exposed to WHB impacts are, with crucial implications for future sustainable management.

Quantifying the spatial pattern of urban heat islands and the associated cooling effect of blue-green landscapes using multisource remote sensing data

Surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) are a global concern. Although their spatial pattern and the cooling effect of blue-green landscapes have been documented, exploring more accurate and quantitative results is still necessary. For Hangzhou, we combined nighttime light (NTL) data with LST images to investigate the spatial morphology of SUHIs and analyze the cooling effect of blue-green landscapes. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) method was used to derive the land surface temperature (LST). Then, based on the unique feature of Luojia1-01 NTL data, the concentric zone model (CZM) was proposed to depict the urban spatial structure. The CZM was applied to construct a number of equal-area concentric belts along the urban-rural gradient to determine the SUHI range and the corresponding blue-green landscape cooling effects. Finally, local Moran's I indices were adopted to identify the cold-hot spots of the SUHI and the relationship with land use. The minimum, average and maximum LSTs were 21.81 °C, 32.79 °C and 44.79 °C, respectively. Additionally, 59.16 % of the study area was affected by the SUHI, and the mean LST inside the SUHI was 36.4 °C, clearly higher than that of the rural area. The SUHI hotpots were clustered in regions with intensive human activities, forming archipelagos. Due to the different blue-green landscape densities, the cooling capacity had spatial heterogeneity in different urban rural belts (URBs), and the cooling capacity of URB₁₆ was approximately 71 times that of URB₁. The cooling efficiency increased with blue-green landscape density in general; hence, blue-green landscape density thresholds of 40 % and 70 % were recommended in the urban planning of different urban function zones. Relating the pattern of NTL data to LST images provide meaningful insight into the spatial pattern of SUHIs and the optimization of urban planning.

Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Concerns in Urban Areas: A Systematic Review of the Impact of IPCC Assessment Reports

Urban areas continue to be the center of action for many countries due to their contribution to economic development. Many urban areas, through the urbanization process, have become vulnerable to climate risk, thereby making risk mitigation and adaptation essential components in urban planning. The study assessed the impacts of IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs) on academic research on risk mitigation and adaptation concerns in urban areas. The study systematically reviewed literature through searches of the Web of Science and Scopus databases; 852 papers were retrieved and 370 were deemed eligible. The results showed that the East Asia and Pacific, and Europe and Central Asia regions were most interested in IPCC ARs, while Sub-Saharan Africa showed little interest. Several urban concerns, including socio-economic, air quality, extreme temperature, sea level rise/flooding, health, and water supply/drought, were identified. Additionally, studies on negative health outcomes due to extreme temperatures and air pollution did not appear in the first four IPCC ARs. However, significant studies appeared after the launch of the AR5. Here, we must state that climate-related problems of urbanization were known and discussed in scientific papers well before the formation of the IPCC. For instance, the works of Clarke on urban structure and heat mortality and Oke on climatic impacts of urbanization. Though the IPCC ARs show impact, their emphasis on combined mitigation and adaptation policies is limited. This study advocates more combined risk mitigation and adaptation policies in urban areas for increased resilience to climate risk.

Combining GOES-R and ECOSTRESS land surface temperature data to investigate diurnal variations of surface urban heat island

The surface urban heat island (SUHI) phenomenon is characterized by both high spatial and temporal variability, while its diurnal (i.e., diel) variations have rarely been investigated because traditional satellites and sensors flying on polar orbits (e.g., Landsat, MODIS) have no diurnal sampling capability. Here we combined land surface temperature (LST) data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R) and the Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) to explore the diurnal variations of SUHI and thermal differentiation among various land covers over the Boston Metropolitan Area. With the combined use of the LST data from GOES-R and ECOSTRESS, we took advantage of the strengths of both GOES-R (i.e., high frequency in each day and night) and ECOSTRESS (i.e., much finer spatial resolution). The SUHI intensity of the urban-core and suburban areas both exhibited clear diurnal patterns for different seasons: a continuous increase in the SUHI intensity from sunrise to noon and a decrease thereafter to sunset, followed by a relatively low and constant intensity during nighttime. The LST contrasts among different land cover types were clearly larger in the daytime than at nighttime and peaked around midday. At noon in summer, the LST of 'Developed, High Intensity' was 2.6 °C higher than that of 'Developed, Medium Intensity', and about 4.6 °C higher than that of "Developed, Open Space" and "Developed, Low Intensity". Controlling the percent impervious surface in construction land at a relatively low level (e.g., below ~49%) could effectively alleviate the impacts of SUHI. Compared with GOES-R data, ECOSTRESS LST is suitable for monitoring the diurnal variations of intracity thermal environment at the subdistrict (or neighborhood) scale. Our study highlights the value of the combined use of geostationary satellite and ECOSTRESS LST in exploring the diurnal cycling of the SUHI, and can help inform urban planning and land-based climate mitigation policies in the context of climate change.

Heterogeneous Urban Thermal Contribution of Functional Construction Land Zones: A Case Study in Shenzhen, China

Anthropogenic interferences through various intensive social-economic activities within construction land have induced and strengthened the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects in global cities. Focused on the relative heat effect produced by different social-economic functions, this study established a general framework for functional construction land zones (FCLZs) mapping and investigated their heterogeneous contribution to the urban thermal environment, and then the thermal responses in FCLZs with 12 environmental indicators were analyzed. Taking Shenzhen as an example city, the results show that the total contribution and thermal effects within FCLZs are significantly different. Specifically, the FCLZs contribution to UHI regions highly exceeds the corresponding proportions of their area. The median warming capacity order of FCLZs is: Manufacture function (3.99 °C) > Warehousing and logistics function (3.69 °C) > Street and transportation function (3.61 °C) > Business services function (3.06 °C) > Administration and public services function (2.54 °C) > Green spaces and squares function (2.40 °C) > Residential function (2.21 °C). Both difference and consistency coexist in the responses of differential surface temperature (DST) to environmental indicators in FCLZs. The thermal responses of DST to biophysical and building indicators in groups of FCLZs are approximately consistent linear relationships with different intercepts, while the saturation effects shown in location and social-economic indicators indicate that distance and social-economic development control UHI effects in a non-linear way. This study could extend the understanding of urban thermal warming mechanisms and help to scientifically adjust environmental indicators in urban planning.

Mapping Heat-Health Vulnerability Based on Remote Sensing: A Case Study in Karachi

As a result of global climate change, the frequency and intensity of heat waves have increased significantly. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), extreme temperatures in southwestern Pakistan have exceeded 54 °C in successive years. The identification and assessment of heat-health vulnerability (HHV) are important for controlling heat-related diseases and mortality. At present, heat waves have many definitions. To better describe the heat wave mortality risk, we redefine the heat wave by regarding the most frequent temperature (MFT) as the minimum temperature threshold for HHV for the first time. In addition, different indicators that serve as relevant evaluation factors of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability are selected to conduct a kilometre-level HHV assessment. The hesitant analytic hierarchy process (H-AHP) method is used to evaluate each index weight. Finally, we incorporate the weights into the data layers to establish the final HHV assessment model. The vulnerability in the study area is divided into five levels, high, middle-high, medium, middle-low and low, with proportions of 3.06%, 46.55%, 41.85%, 8.53% and 0%, respectively. Health facilities and urbanization were found to provide advantages for vulnerability reduction. Our study improved the resolution to describe the spatial heterogeneity of HHV, which provided a reference for more detailed model construction. It can help local government formulate more targeted control measures to reduce morbidity and mortality during heat waves.

Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis of the Fine-Scale Heat Wave Risk along the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia

As a highly important meteorological hazard, heat waves notably impact human health and socioeconomics, and accurate heat wave risk identification and assessment are effective ways to address this issue. The current spatial scale of heat wave risk assessment is relatively coarse, hardly meeting fine-scale heat wave risk assessment requirements. Therefore, based on multi-source fine-scale remote sensing data and socioeconomic data, this paper evaluates the heat wave risk along the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, obtains the spatial distribution of heat wave risk in 2005, 2014 and 2019, and analyzes spatiotemporal risk variations over the past 15 years. The results show that most high-risk areas were affected by high-temperature hazards. Over time, the hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk levels increased by 25.82%, 3.31%, 14.82% and 6.97%, respectively, from 2005–2019. Spatially, the higher risk in the northwest is mainly distributed in Jakarta. Additionally, a comparative analysis was conducted on the risk results, and the results showed that the 100-m scale showed more spatial differences than the kilometer scale. The research results in this paper can provide scientific advice on heat wave risk prevention considering the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway construction and regional economic and social development.

Disproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities

Urban heat stress poses a major risk to public health. Case studies of individual cities suggest that heat exposure, like other environmental stressors, may be unequally distributed across income groups. There is little evidence, however, as to whether such disparities are pervasive. We combine surface urban heat island (SUHI) data, a proxy for isolating the urban contribution to additional heat exposure in built environments, with census tract-level demographic data to answer these questions for summer days, when heat exposure is likely to be at a maximum. We find that the average person of color lives in a census tract with higher SUHI intensity than non-Hispanic whites in all but 6 of the 175 largest urbanized areas in the continental United States. A similar pattern emerges for people living in households below the poverty line relative to those at more than two times the poverty line.

Heat risk of residents in different types of communities from urban heat-exposed areas

Heat risk assessment is important due to serious health problems caused by heat waves. The complexity and diversity of socio-ecological characteristics in urban areas that lead to heat risk are more serious in heat-exposed areas, while risk assessments and determinant based on individuals in heat-exposed areas have been neglected in previous studies. This study pursues a new idea of combining questionnaire surveys and remote sensing analysis to identify urban heat-exposed areas and assess heat risk in heat-exposed areas of Beijing, China. Morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) was used to identify large and continuous hotspot regions as urban heat-exposed areas based on summer surface temperature from 2011 to 2017. A total of 1484 valid questionnaires were completed by residents of heat-exposed areas. The majority of respondents (96.4%) indicated that they perceived heat risk. Moreover, the residents without a local "hukou" were a potentially vulnerable group (note: hukou refers to the population registration management system.). This study further analysed the diversity of community types within the heat-exposed areas. There were significant differences in heat risk among the different community types of multi-story residential districts, Hutong (a traditional architectural form) residential districts and city villages. In particular, the degree of heat risk perceived by residents living in these the community types was determined by whether they had pre-existing medical conditions; however, age only played a decisive role in city villages. This study not only enriches the current understanding of health risks affected by heat waves but also explores the determinants contributing to the severity of heat risk. The output provides important information for future development of heat mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Intra-urban microclimate investigation in urban heat island through a novel mobile monitoring system

Monitoring microclimate variables within cities with high accuracy is an ongoing challenge for a better urban resilience to climate change. Assessing the intra-urban characteristics of a city is of vital importance for ensuring fine living standards for citizens. Here, a novel mobile microclimate station is applied for monitoring the main microclimatic variables regulating urban and intra-urban environment, as well as directionally monitoring shortwave radiation and illuminance and hence systematically map for the first time the effect of urban surfaces and anthropogenic heat. We performed day-time and night-time monitoring campaigns within a historical city in Italy, characterized by substantial urban structure differentiations. We found significant intra-urban variations concerning variables such as air temperature and shortwave radiation. Moreover, the proposed experimental framework may capture, for the very first time, significant directional variations with respect to shortwave radiation and illuminance across the city at microclimate scale. The presented mobile station represents therefore the key missing piece for exhaustively identifying urban environmental quality, anthropogenic actions, and data driven modelling toward risk and resilience planning. It can be therefore used in combination with satellite data, stable weather station or other mobile stations, e.g. wearable sensing techniques, through a citizens' science approach in smart, livable, and sustainable cities in the near future.

Urban Heat Island Formation in Greater Cairo: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Daytime and Nighttime Land Surface Temperatures along the Urban–Rural Gradient

An urban heat island (UHI) is a significant anthropogenic modification of urban land surfaces, and its geospatial pattern can increase the intensity of the heatwave effects. The complex mechanisms and interactivity of the land surface temperature in urban areas are still being examined. The urban–rural gradient analysis serves as a unique natural opportunity to identify and mitigate ecological worsening. Using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIRS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Land Surface Temperature (LST) data in 2000, 2010, and 2019, we examined the spatial difference in daytime and nighttime LST trends along the urban–rural gradient in Greater Cairo, Egypt. Google Earth Engine (GEE) and machine learning techniques were employed to conduct the spatio-temporal analysis. The analysis results revealed that impervious surfaces (ISs) increased significantly from 564.14 km2 in 2000 to 869.35 km2 in 2019 in Greater Cairo. The size, aggregation, and complexity of patches of ISs, green space (GS), and bare land (BL) showed a strong correlation with the mean LST. The average urban–rural difference in mean LST was −3.59 °C in the daytime and 2.33 °C in the nighttime. In the daytime, Greater Cairo displayed the cool island effect, but in the nighttime, it showed the urban heat island effect. We estimated that dynamic human activities based on the urban structure are causing the spatial difference in the LST distribution between the day and night. The urban–rural gradient analysis indicated that this phenomenon became stronger from 2000 to 2019. Considering the drastic changes in the spatial patterns and the density of IS, GS, and BL, urban planners are urged to take immediate steps to mitigate increasing surface UHI; otherwise, urban dwellers might suffer from the severe effects of heatwaves.

A novel methodology for epidemic risk assessment of COVID-19 outbreak

We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and the vulnerability of its inhabitants. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. We characterize each of the twenty Italian regions by using available historical data on air pollution, human mobility, winter temperature, housing concentration, health care density, population size and age. We find that the epidemic risk is higher in some of the Northern regions with respect to Central and Southern Italy. The corresponding risk index shows correlations with the available official data on the number of infected individuals, patients in intensive care and deceased patients, and can help explaining why regions such as Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Veneto have suffered much more than the rest of the country. Although the COVID-19 outbreak started in both North (Lombardia) and Central Italy (Lazio) almost at the same time, when the first cases were officially certified at the beginning of 2020, the disease has spread faster and with heavier consequences in regions with higher epidemic risk. Our framework can be extended and tested on other epidemic data, such as those on seasonal flu, and applied to other countries. We also present a policy model connected with our methodology, which might help policy-makers to take informed decisions.

A Review of Urban Ecosystem Services Research in Southeast Asia

Urban blue-green spaces hold immense potential for supporting the sustainability and liveability of cities through the provision of urban ecosystem services (UES). However, research on UES in the Global South has not been reviewed as systematically as in the Global North. In Southeast Asia, the nature and extent of the biases, imbalances and gaps in UES research are unclear. We address this issue by conducting a systematic review of UES research in Southeast Asia over the last twenty years. Our findings draw attention to the unequal distribution of UES research within the region, and highlight common services, scales and features studied, as well as methods undertaken in UES research. We found that while studies tend to assess regulating and cultural UES at a landscape scale, few studies examined interactions between services by assessing synergies and tradeoffs. Moreover, the bias in research towards megacities in the region may overlook less-developed nations, rural areas, and peri-urban regions and their unique perspectives and preferences towards UES management. We discuss the challenges and considerations for integrating and conducting research on UES in Southeast Asia based on its unique and diverse socio-cultural characteristics. We conclude our review by highlighting aspects of UES research that need more attention in order to support land use planning and decision-making in Southeast Asia.

Spatial Variation of Land Use/Cover Composition and Impact on Surface Urban Heat Island in a Tropical Sub-Saharan City of Accra, Ghana

Rapid urbanization is one of the most crucial issues in the world of the 21st century. Notably, the urban heat island phenomenon is becoming more prominent in megacities and their hinterlands in temperate and subtropical climatic regions. In the daytime in summer, there exists a high possibility of accelerating the land surface temperature (LST) in desert cities, due to the alterations made by human beings in the natural environment. In this study, we investigate the spatial formation of LST in a tropical sub-Saharan city of Accra, a gateway to West Africa, using Landsat data in 2003 and 2017. Machine learning techniques and the different spatial and statistical methods such as tasseled cap transformation (TCT), urban-rural gradient, and multiresolution grid-based and landscape metrics were employed to examine procured land use/cover (LUC) and LST maps. LUC was classified into five categories: Built up, Green 1, Green 2, Bare land, and Water. The results of the analysis indicate that Built up, Green 2, and Bare land had caused the highest heating effect while Green 1 and Water had caused the considerable cooling effect during the daytime in Accra. The urban-rural difference in LST recorded 1.4 °C in 2003 and 0.28 °C in 2017. The mean size, mean shape, largest patch, and aggregation of Built up, Green 1, and Green 2 had a strong relationship with the mean LST. It is essential for urban planners to carefully examine the formation and effect of the urban heat island (UHI) for sustainable urban development and landscape policy toward mitigation and adaptation planning in Accra.

A Review of the Sustainability Concept and the State of SDG Monitoring Using Remote Sensing

The formulation of the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) was a major leap forward in humankind’s quest for a sustainable future, which likely began in the 17th century, when declining forest resources in Europe led to proposals for the re-establishment and conservation of forests, a strategy that embodies the great idea that the current generation bears responsibility for future generations. Global progress toward SDG fulfillment is monitored by 231 unique social-ecological indicators spread across 169 targets, and remote sensing (RS) provides Earth observation data, directly or indirectly, for 30 (18%) of these indicators. Unfortunately, the UN Global Sustainable Development Report 2019—The Future is Now: Science for Achieving Sustainable Development concluded that, despite initial efforts, the world is not yet on track for achieving most of the SDG targets. Meanwhile, through the EO4SDG initiative by the Group on Earth Observations, the full potential of RS for SDG monitoring is now being explored at a global scale. As of April 2020, preliminary statistical data were available for 21 (70%) of the 30 RS-based SDG indicators, according to the Global SDG Indicators Database. Ten (33%) of the RS-based SDG indicators have also been included in the SDG Index and Dashboards found in the Sustainable Development Report 2019—Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. These statistics, however, do not necessarily reflect the actual status and availability of raw and processed geospatial data for the RS-based indicators, which remains an important issue. Nevertheless, various initiatives have been started to address the need for open access data. RS data can also help in the development of other potentially relevant complementary indicators or sub-indicators. By doing so, they can help meet one of the current challenges of SDG monitoring, which is how best to operationalize the SDG indicators.