Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change

Predicting high-risk zones for pine wood nematodes invasion: Integrating climate suitability, host availability, and vector dominance

Pine wood nematodes (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) cause widespread mortality in pine forests via pine wilt disease (PWD). The rapid death of diseased trees, which destroys biodiversity and significantly affects forest carbon storage, leading to negative environmental and economic consequences, as forests are crucial to the global carbon cycle. The interactions among PWN, hosts, and vector insects are closely linked to climate change. Climate warming has exacerbated changes in the geographic distribution of host tree species and vector insects, thereby increasing the rate and extent of PWD transmission. These interactions increase the risk of pine infection and can have far-reaching consequences for the health and stability of entire forest ecosystems. However, the global effects of climate change on these interactions are poorly understood. To fill this research gap and predict the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of PWNs and vector insects in pine forests, we used the biomod2 integrated model to forecast their potential geographic distributions by 2050, 2070, and 2090 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). We analysed vector dominance and risk zones and found that potentially suitable areas for PWNs could migrate to higher latitudes in the future. The dominant vector insects, Monochamus alternatus, Monochamus carolinensis, and Monochamus saltuarius, exhibited a high ecological niche similarity to PWNs and their populations should be controlled. Additionally, high-risk areas for abiotic factors (environmental similarity) and biotic factors (hosts and vectors) will greatly expand in North America and Europe. Areas already infested by PWN will become high-risk zones for the conversion of carbon sinks to carbon sources. The modeled changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of PWN, hosts, and vector insects in this study provide a reference for developing management and conservation strategies for ensuring PWN control and improving future forest health.

Biodiversity Patterns Redefined in Environmental Space

Ecological and evolutionary questions addressing diversity-environment relationships have been evaluated almost entirely in geographic space, yet most hypotheses are formulated in terms of environmental conditions. Recent examples evaluating macroecological patterns directly in environmental space suggest that such refocusing provides different perspectives on the mechanisms driving broad-scale patterns of diversity. Yet, we lack both conceptual frameworks and targeted studies to fully evaluate the potential contribution of such a refocus. Here, we focus on the concept of environmental space by briefly reviewing its use in ecology and evolution and suggesting avenues for further development. We encourage a re-evaluation of hypotheses and frameworks that have dominated ecological theory since the foundations of ecology with a very simple shift in the lens, that is, from geographical to environmental space. Focusing on environmental space also provides a crucial lens for climate change research, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of biodiversity dynamics and offering a holistic view of the interplay between species and their evolving environments. This shift enhances our ability to predict and adapt to future changes, enriching our understanding of biodiversity beyond more commonly done geographic analyses.

Convergent Isobilateral Leaves Increase the Risk for Mangroves Facing Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Changes

Understanding plant adaptations in extreme environments is crucial, as these adaptations often confer advantages for survival. However, a significant gap exists regarding the genetic mechanisms underlying these adaptations and their responses to human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC). This study addresses the question of whether genetic convergence occurs among plants with similar adaptive features, specifically focusing on isobilateral leaves in mangrove species. Here, we analyse the genetic convergence of isobilateral leaves in mangroves that have independently adapted to coastal intertidal zones. Our findings reveal that genetic convergence is evident in gene families involved in leaf abaxial and adaxial development, with strong selection pressures identified in photosynthesis and leaf polarity pathways. Despite these adaptations, mangrove species with isobilateral leaves occupy narrower ecological niches and face diminishing suitable habitat areas projected under various HIREC scenarios. These results indicate that while convergent traits enhance local adaptation, they may also increase vulnerability to ongoing environmental changes. This research provides valuable insight into the interplay between genetic adaptation and environmental resilience, underscoring the necessity for targeted biodiversity conservation strategies that safeguard specific adaptive traits amid rapid environmental shifts.

Orchards and paddy differentially impact rock outcrop amphibians: Insights from community- and species-level responses

With agricultural demands increasing globally, determining the nature of impacts of different forms of agriculture on biodiversity, especially for threatened vertebrates and habitats, is critical to inform land management. This is especially true for open ecosystems such as the natural rock outcrops and amphibians, both of which are threatened by land-use change. Lateritic plateaus of the northern Western Ghats are rock outcrop ecosystems harboring endemic biodiversity. Since most of these plateaus are located outside protected areas and officially classified as wastelands, they are rapidly lost due to multiple human pressures, including agriculture. We compared amphibian composition, diversity, and species responses across these rocky plateaus (hereafter plateaus), orchards, and rice paddy in the Western Ghats-Sri Lanka biodiversity Hotspot, India. We sampled 50 belt transects across four geographically separated plateaus, covering three land-use classes in three of the plateaus, and recorded information on amphibians and their microhabitats. Each transect was sampled four times across the rainy season. We compared responses of amphibians across three land-use categories at the community level using Hill numbers, beta-diversity measures, and nonmetric multidimensional scaling, and at the species level using joint species distribution modeling. Converting plateaus to paddy and orchards significantly altered microhabitat availability by reducing the rock pool habitat availability in paddy and orchards, and increased deep, water-submerged areas and grass cover in paddy. Conversion to paddy mostly had species- and community-level impacts, that is, lowered species occurrence of certain species, lowered species richness, and more nested communities, whereas conversion to orchards mostly had species-level impacts, that is, lowered species occurrence, highlighting that different forms of agriculture have varying impacts on amphibians that can be determined by examining community- and species-level effects simultaneously. Using only community- or species-level metrics would not have unraveled these impacts completely. We show that large rock pools are critical microhabitats for frogs, most likely serving as refugia and protecting frogs from desiccation during dry spells in monsoons. Since Indian lateritic plateau habitats in low elevations are rapidly being converted to orchards, efforts are needed to conserve them in partnership with local communities, the custodians of these habitats.

Unveiling the effects of landscape-fire interactions on functional diversity in a Southern European mountain

Climate and land-use changes are contributing to impacts on global ecosystem functioning. These effects are particularly severe in areas undergoing land abandonment and extreme wildfire events, such as the Mediterranean regions of the Iberian Peninsula. Previous studies have evaluated the impacts of land management on fire mitigation and biodiversity (species distribution and species richness), but how such strategies influence functional diversity remains unexplored. This study investigates how alternative land-fire management strategies may affect functional diversity. We modeled for 2050 for the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés (Portugal-Spain). Land-use scenarios simulated processes of land abandonment ("business-as-usual"-BAU) and the implementation of EU rural policies ("high nature value farmlands"-HNVf), and were combined with three fire suppression levels. Species distribution models (102 vertebrates) were projected to each scenario, and functional diversity indices were consequently calculated. The highest functional richness was predicted for BAU scenarios, probably representing the benefits to unique species that deliver singular functions. The HNVf scenarios provided the highest functional divergence, probably indicating a high niche differentiation and low resource competition amongst agricultural communities. HNVf was the most beneficial scenario for ecosystem functioning, while fire suppression did not affect functional diversity. Despite the proneness to burn of our study area and the effects of firefighting on its fire regime, land-use policies are expected to have greater influence than fire suppression effects on functional diversity. These findings suggest that different facets of functional diversity will be unevenly influenced by fire-landscape dynamics driven by the land-use policies to be implemented in the upcoming decades.

How Habitat Simplification Shapes the Morphological Characteristics of Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Different Biogeographical Contexts

Human-driven changes in land cover and use can significantly impact species ants community structures, often leading to a decline in taxonomic diversity or species homogenization. Ant morphology, used as a proxy for ecological function, offers a valuable framework for understanding the effects of anthropogenic disturbances on ant diversity. This study explored the morphological diversity of ant assemblages in agricultural ecosystems and secondary forests in Italy and the Brazilian Amazon, analyzing how these communities are structured and adapted to different environments. The research aims to understand the ecological interactions and the role of ants in maintaining biodiversity in these contexts. The study was conducted in the Ticino River Natural Park, Italy, and the Paragominas mosaic in Pará, Brazil. The ants were sampled using epigean pitfall traps at 15 agricultural and 13 forest sites. In the secondary forests, the species richness was significantly higher in both countries compared to agricultural areas. In general, the Community Weighted Mean (CWM) of the selected traits (head length, head width, interocular distance, mandible length, eye width, Weber's length, and tibia length) of Brazilian ants was higher than those of Italian. However, the CWM of agricultural areas of the two countries was more similar. We noticed the convex hull (i.e., the volume of an assemblage in the morphological space) of Brazilian secondary forests was still larger than Italian secondary forests when both assemblages have the same number of species. Morphological homogenization was more pronounced in agricultural settings, whereas secondary forests showed more variability, highlighting the role of environmental filtering in shaping ant communities across land use types.

Advanced precipitation peak offsets middle growing-season drought in impacting grassland C sink

Redistribution of precipitation across seasons is a widespread phenomenon affecting dryland ecosystems globally. However, the impacts of shifting seasonal precipitation patterns on carbon (C) cycling and sequestration in dryland ecosystems remain poorly understood. In this study, we conducted a 10-yr (2013-2022) field manipulative experiment that altered the timing of growing-season precipitation peaks in a semi-arid grassland. We found that the delayed precipitation peak suppressed plant growth and thus reduced gross ecosystem productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem productivity due to middle growing-season water stress. Surprisingly, shifting more precipitation to the early growing season can advance plant development, increase the dominance of drought-tolerant forbs, and thus compensate for the negative impacts of middle growing-season water stress on ecosystem C cycling, leading to a neutral change in grassland C sink. Our findings indicate that greater precipitation and plant development in spring could act as a crucial mechanism, maintaining plant growth and stabilizing ecosystem C sink. This underscores the urgent need to incorporate precipitation seasonality into Earth system models, which is crucial for improving projections of terrestrial C cycling and sequestration under future climate change scenarios.

Spatial and temporal effects of heat waves on the diversity of European stream invertebrate communities

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase with climate change. However, assessments of the response of biological communities to heat waves are often inconclusive. We aimed to assess the responses in abundance, taxonomic and functional diversity indices of stream invertebrate communities to heat waves using long-term monitoring data collected across Europe. We quantified the heat waves' magnitude, analyzed the spatial (i.e., long-term mean) and temporal (anomaly around the long-term mean) components of variation in the magnitude of heat waves, and their interaction with anthropogenic stressors (ecological quality and land cover). For the spatial component of variation, we found a negative association of the community indices to the increasing magnitude of heat waves. Sites undergoing heat waves of higher magnitude showed fewer species and lower trait diversity compared with sites experiencing lower magnitude heat waves. However, we could not detect an immediate temporal response of the communities to heat waves (i.e., the temporal component). Furthermore, we found that the effects of heat waves interacted with the ecological quality of the streams and their surrounding land cover. Diversity declined with increasing heat waves' magnitude in streams with higher ecological quality or surrounded by forest, which may be due to a higher proportion of sensitive species in the community. Heat waves' impacts on diversity were also exacerbated by increasing urban cover. The interaction between heat waves' magnitude and anthropogenic stressors suggests that the effects of extreme events can compromise the recovery of communities. Further, the predicted increase in heat waves will likely have long-term effects on stream invertebrate communities that are currently undetected.

Interactive effects of Orobanche latisquama parasitism and drought stress in Salvia rosmarinus plants growing under Mediterranean field conditions

Mediterranean-type ecosystems are recognized as critical hotspots for both biodiversity and climate change. Within these environments, plants often interact with diverse species, including holoparasitic plants, while simultaneously facing increasing episodes of precipitation shortages and rising temperatures. Here, we investigated the impact of Orobanche latisquama Reut. ex Boiss infestation on the Mediterranean shrub Salvia rosmarinus (L.) Spenn (rosemary) across three populations along an altitudinal gradient, focusing on its effects on host tolerance and resilience to severe summer drought in its natural habitat. Results showed no major physiological impact of the parasite on the host during spring but revealed an enhanced photo- and antioxidant-protective response during the summer drought in rosemary plants infested with O. latisquama. Infested plants showed elevated contents of α-tocopherol and a shift in the ascorbate ratio towards its oxidized state during the summer, particularly in upper and sun-exposed leaves. This was accompanied by elevated malondialdehyde content, indicating enhanced lipid peroxidation. However, despite the heightened photo-oxidative stress observed in leaves from infested plants, no damage to photosystem II was observed, indicating a good tolerance of rosemary to the interaction between parasitism and drought. By autumn, all plants displayed similar recovery patterns, and the differences between infested and non-infested plants disappeared, thus indicating a high resilience to the combination of these biotic and abiotic stresses. Overall, these findings underscore the great adaptive mechanisms S. rosmarinus plants have evolved to endure severe summer drought, even when challenged by holoparasitic plant infestation, and provide new insights into plant-parasite interactions in Mediterranean-type ecosystems.

A Study of the Diversity Patterns of Desert Vegetation Communities in an Arid Zone of China

The Gobi Desert ecosystem is currently experiencing the impacts of persistent climate warming and extreme weather. However, the relative influences of factors such as soil, climate, and spatial variables on the β-diversity of desert plants and their key components have not been systematically studied. In this research, the Dunhuang North Mountain and Mazong Mountain areas were selected as study areas, with a total of 79 plant community plots systematically established. The aim was to explore intercommunity β-diversity and its components and to analyze the interrelationships with climate factors, soil factors, and geographic distance. The results indicate that (1) there is a geographic decay pattern and significant differences among plant communities in the Dunhuang North Mountain and Mazong Mountain areas, with β-diversity primarily driven by replacement components. (2) Climate, soil, and geographic distance significantly influence β-diversity and its replacement components, with climate factors exerting the greatest influence and geographic distance the least. (3) Multiple regression analysis (MRM) reveals differential effects of climate factors, soil factors, and geographic distance on β-diversity and its replacement components, with climate and soil factors exerting a much greater influence than geographic distance. In summary, the β-diversity of plant communities and their replacement components in the Dunhuang North Mountain and Mazong Mountain areas result from the combined effects of habitat filtering and dispersal limitation, with habitat filtering having a greater impact, while environmental heterogeneity is an important factor influencing species differences in this region.

Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change

The global food system is a key driver of land-use and climate change which in turn drive biodiversity change. Developing sustainable food systems is therefore critical to reversing biodiversity loss. We use the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE to estimate the biodiversity impacts embedded within the global food system in 2011. Using models that capture regional variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity both to land use and climate change, we calculate the land-driven and greenhouse gas-driven footprints of food using two metrics of biodiversity: local species richness and rarity-weighted species richness. We show that the footprint of land area underestimates biodiversity impact in more species-rich regions and that our metric of rarity-weighted richness places a greater emphasis on biodiversity costs in Central and South America. We find that methane emissions are responsible for 70% of the overall greenhouse gas-driven biodiversity footprint and that, in several regions, emissions from a single year's food production are associated with global biodiversity loss equivalent to 2% or more of that region's total land-driven biodiversity loss. The measures we present are relatively simple to calculate and could be incorporated into decision-making and environmental impact assessments by governments and businesses.

Changes in above- versus belowground biomass distribution in permafrost regions in response to climate warming

Permafrost regions contain approximately half of the carbon stored in land ecosystems and have warmed at least twice as much as any other biome. This warming has influenced vegetation activity, leading to changes in plant composition, physiology, and biomass storage in aboveground and belowground components, ultimately impacting ecosystem carbon balance. Yet, little is known about the causes and magnitude of long-term changes in the above- to belowground biomass ratio of plants (η). Here, we analyzed η values using 3,013 plots and 26,337 species-specific measurements across eight sites on the Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2021. Our analysis revealed distinct temporal trends in η for three vegetation types: a 17% increase in alpine wetlands, and a decrease of 26% and 48% in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, respectively. These trends were primarily driven by temperature-induced growth preferences rather than shifts in plant species composition. Our findings indicate that in wetter ecosystems, climate warming promotes aboveground plant growth, while in drier ecosystems, such as alpine meadows and alpine steppes, plants allocate more biomass belowground. Furthermore, we observed a threefold strengthening of the warming effect on η over the past 27 y. Soil moisture was found to modulate the sensitivity of η to soil temperature in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, but not in alpine wetlands. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the processes driving the response of biomass distribution to climate warming, which is crucial for predicting the future carbon trajectory of permafrost ecosystems and climate feedback.

Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates

Land-use and climate change are major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures across multiple clades are needed. We investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographic range area) are associated with species' responses to different land-use types and species' likely sensitivity to climate change. We aimed to test whether generalizable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could inform assessments of the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity and guide conservation efforts. At the species level, we investigated associations between land-use responses and ecological characteristics with a space-for-time substitution approach, making use of the PREDICTS database. We investigated associations between ecological characteristics and expected climate-change sensitivity, estimated from properties of species realized climatic niches. Among the characteristics we considered, 3 were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographic range, narrow habitat breadth, and specialization on natural habitats (which described whether a species occurs in artificial habitats or not). The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity often depended on species' class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit and nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land-use types, whereas invertebrate-eating and plant- and seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our results highlight a consistently higher sensitivity of narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists to land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments.

Behavioral thermoregulation in primates: A review of literature and future avenues

Primates face severe challenges from climate change, with warming expected to increase animals' thermoregulatory demands. Primates have limited long-term options to cope with climate change, but possess a remarkable capacity for behavioral plasticity. This creates an urgency to better understand the behavioral mechanisms primates use to thermoregulate. While considerable information exists on primate behavioral thermoregulation, it is often scattered in the literature in a manner that is difficult to integrate. This review evaluates the status of the available literature on primate behavioral thermoregulation to facilitate future research. We surveyed peer-reviewed publications on primate thermoregulation for N = 17 behaviors across four thermoregulatory categories: activity budgeting, microhabitat use, body positioning, and evaporative cooling. We recorded data on the primate taxa evaluated, support for a thermoregulatory function, thermal variable assessed, and naturalistic/manipulative study conditions. Behavioral thermoregulation was pervasive across primates, with N = 721 cases of thermoregulatory behaviors identified across N = 284 published studies. Most genera were known to utilize multiple behaviors (x ¯  = 4.5 ± 3.1 behaviors/genera). Activity budgeting behaviors were the most commonly encountered category in the literature (54.5% of cases), while evaporative cooling behaviors were the least represented (6.9% of cases). Behavioral thermoregulation studies were underrepresented for certain taxonomic groups, including lemurs, lorises, galagos, and Central/South American primates, and there were large within-taxa disparities in representation of genera. Support for a thermoregulatory function was consistently high across all behaviors, spanning both hot- and cold-avoidance strategies. This review reveals asymmetries in the current literature and avenues for future research. Increased knowledge of the impact thermoregulatory behaviors have on biologically relevant outcomes is needed to better assess primate responses to warming environments and develop early indicators of thermal stress.

A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.

Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change

The conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems require detailed knowledge of the native plant compositions. Here, we map global forest tree composition and assess the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change on trees. The global occupancy of 10,590 tree species reveals complex taxonomic and phylogenetic gradients determining a local signature of tree lineage assembly. Species occupancy analyses indicate that historical forest loss has significantly restricted the potential suitable range of tree species in all forest biomes. Nevertheless, tropical moist and boreal forest biomes display the lowest level of range restriction and harbor extremely large ranged tree species, albeit with a stark contrast in richness and composition. Climate change simulations indicate that forest biomes are projected to differ in their response to climate change, with the highest predicted species loss in tropical dry and Mediterranean ecoregions. Our findings highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change.

Biodiversity responses to agricultural practices in cropland and natural habitats

Largely driven by agricultural pressures, biodiversity has experienced great changes globally. Exploring biodiversity responses to agricultural practices associated with agricultural intensification can benefit biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes. However, the effects of agricultural practices may also extend to natural habitats. Moreover, agricultural impacts may also vary with geographical region. We analyze biodiversity responses to landscape cropland coverage, cropping frequency, fertiliser and yield, among different land-use types and across geographical regions. We find that species richness and total abundance generally respond negatively to increased landscape cropland coverage. Biodiversity reductions in human land-use types (pasture, plantation forest and cropland) were stronger in tropical than non-tropical regions, which was also true for biodiversity reductions with increasing yield in both human and natural land-use types. Our results underline substantial biodiversity responses to agricultural practices not only in cropland but also in natural habitats, highlighting the fact that biodiversity conservation demands a greater focus on optimizing agricultural management at the landscape scale.

Biodiversity-production feedback effects lead to intensification traps in agricultural landscapes

Intensive agriculture with high reliance on pesticides and fertilizers constitutes a major strategy for 'feeding the world'. However, such conventional intensification is linked to diminishing returns and can result in 'intensification traps'-production declines triggered by the negative feedback of biodiversity loss at high input levels. Here we developed a novel framework that accounts for biodiversity feedback on crop yields to evaluate the risk and magnitude of intensification traps. Simulations grounded in systematic literature reviews showed that intensification traps emerge in most landscape types, but to a lesser extent in major cereal production systems. Furthermore, small reductions in maximal production (5-10%) could be frequently transmitted into substantial biodiversity gains, resulting in small-loss large-gain trade-offs prevailing across landscape types. However, sensitivity analyses revealed a strong context dependence of trap emergence, inducing substantial uncertainty in the identification of optimal management at the field scale. Hence, we recommend the development of case-specific safety margins for intensification preventing double losses in biodiversity and food security associated with intensification traps.

Drought legacy interacts with wildfire to alter soil microbial communities in a Mediterranean climate-type forest

Mediterranean forest ecosystems will be increasingly affected by hotter drought and more frequent and severe wildfire events in the future. However, little is known about the longer-term responses of these forests to multiple disturbances and the forests' capacity to maintain ecosystem function. This is particularly so for below-ground organisms, which have received less attention than those above-ground, despite their essential contributions to forest function. We investigated rhizosphere microbial communities in a resprouting Eucalyptus marginata forest, southwestern Australia, that had experienced a severe wildfire four years previously, and a hotter drought eight years previously. Our aim was to understand how microbial communities are affected over longer-term trajectories by hotter drought and wildfire, singularly, and in combination. Fungal and bacterial DNA was extracted from soil samples, amplified, and subjected to high throughput sequencing. Richness, diversity, composition, and putative functional groups were then examined. We found a monotonic decrease in fungal, but not bacterial, richness and diversity with increasing disturbance with the greatest changes resulting from the combination of drought and wildfire. Overall fungal and bacterial community composition reflected a stronger effect of fire than drought, but the combination of both produced the greatest number of indicator taxa for fungi, and a significant negative effect on the abundance of several fungal functional groups. Key mycorrhizal fungi, fungal saprotrophs and fungal pathogens were found at lower proportions in sites affected by drought plus wildfire. Wildfire had a positive effect on bacterial hydrogen and bacterial nitrogen recyclers. Fungal community composition was positively correlated with live tree height. These results suggest that microbial communities, in particular key fungal functional groups, are highly responsive to wildfire following drought. Thus, a legacy of past climate conditions such as hotter drought can be important for mediating the responses of soil microbial communities to subsequent disturbance like wildfire.

Double jeopardy: global change and interspecies competition threaten Siberian cranes

Anthropogenic global change is precipitating a worldwide biodiversity crisis, with myriad species teetering on the brink of extinction. The Arctic, a fragile ecosystem already on the frontline of global change, bears witness to rapid ecological transformations catalyzed by escalating temperatures. In this context, we explore the ramifications of global change and interspecies competition on two arctic crane species: the critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and the non-threatened sandhill crane (Grus canadensis). How might global climate and landcover changes affect the range dynamics of Siberian cranes and sandhill cranes in the Arctic, potentially leading to increased competition and posing a greater threat to the critically endangered Siberian cranes? To answer these questions, we integrated ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to predict breeding distributions, considering both abiotic and biotic factors. Our results reveal a profound divergence in how global change impacts these crane species. Siberian cranes are poised to lose a significant portion of their habitats, while sandhill cranes are projected to experience substantial range expansion. Furthermore, we identify a growing overlap in breeding areas, intensifying interspecies competition, which may imperil the Siberian crane. Notably, we found the Anzhu Islands may become a Siberian crane refuge under global change, but competition with Sandhill Cranes underscores the need for enhanced conservation management. Our study underscores the urgency of considering species responses to global changes and interspecies dynamics in risk assessments and conservation management. As anthropogenic pressures continue to mount, such considerations are crucial for the preservation of endangered species in the face of impending global challenges.

Rise, fall and hope for the Sicilian endemic plant Muscari gussonei: A story of survival in the face of narrow germination optimum, climate changes, desertification and habitat fragmentation

Muscari gussonei is an endangered endemic plant growing on fragmented Mediterranean coastal dunes. This study focused on the germination performance of M. gussonei at two fixed temperatures, 10 and 15 °C, and at an alternating one, 10/20 °C, and on the multi-temporal trends of temperature and rainfall during 1931-2020, as well as on the patterns of desertification and land-cover changes over the last 60 years. High and similar germinability was found for different populations of M. gussonei, in particular, the final germination percentage (FGP) was ≥95 % for the three treatments. The general pattern was the lower the temperature the higher and faster the germination. However, germination speed varied significantly among populations. This intraspecific variability of germination behavior may suggest a certain level of ecophysiological plasticity in M. gussonei, thus raising hopes on the capacity of M. gussonei to respond better to the ongoing severe environmental changes. In the period 1931-2020, indeed, the average temperature rose by 1.5 °C, from 16.8 to 18.3 °C, which is equivalent to the enormous increase of 0.17 °C per decade. Similarly, the average rainfall declined by 100 mm, from 600 to 500 mm. Another serious stressor was desertification, which affects >90 % of the distributional area of M. gussonei. A further factor of ecological degradation is a considerably altered landscape, where the agricultural component accounts for c. 85 %, whereas natural and seminatural areas were only c. 10 %. Increasing temperature and dryness will inevitably reduce the germinability of M. gussonei, characterized by a narrow germination optimum of 10-15 °C. The future of M. gussonei looks even more dramatic if we consider its small and scattered populations distributed in an agricultural matrix affected by high levels of desertification. Only multivariate information at different space-time scales can provide an exhaustive picture for implementing effective conservation strategies.

What factors influence the rediscovery of lost tetrapod species?

We created a database of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, identified patterns in their distribution and factors influencing rediscovery. Tetrapod species are being lost at a faster rate than they are being rediscovered, due to slowing rates of rediscovery for amphibians, birds and mammals, and rapid rates of loss for reptiles. Finding lost species and preventing future losses should therefore be a conservation priority. By comparing the taxonomic and spatial distribution of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, we have identified regions and taxa with many lost species in comparison to those that have been rediscovered-our results may help to prioritise search effort to find them. By identifying factors that influence rediscovery, we have improved our ability to broadly distinguish the types of species that are likely to be found from those that are not (because they are likely to be extinct). Some lost species, particularly those that are small and perceived to be uncharismatic, may have been neglected in terms of conservation effort, and other lost species may be hard to find due to their intrinsic characteristics and the characteristics of the environments they occupy (e.g. nocturnal species, fossorial species and species occupying habitats that are more difficult to survey such as wetlands). These lost species may genuinely await rediscovery. However, other lost species that possess characteristics associated with rediscovery (e.g. large species) and that are also associated with factors that negatively influence rediscovery (e.g. those occupying small islands) are more likely to be extinct. Our results may foster pragmatic search protocols that prioritise lost species likely to still exist.

The overlooked threat of land take from wind energy infrastructures: Quantification, drivers and policy gaps

Wind harnessing is a fast-developing and cost-effective Renewable Energy Source, but the land impacts of wind power stations are often overlooked or underestimated. We digitized land take, i.e., the generation of artificial land, derived from 90 wind power stations in Greece constructed between 2002 and 2020 (1.2 GW). We found substantial land take impacts of 7729 m2/MW (3.5 m2/MWh) of new artificial land, 148 m/MW of new roads and 174 m/MW of widened roads on average. Models showed that the number and size of wind turbines, the absence of other existing infrastructures and the elevational difference across new access roads increased artificial land generation. The elevational difference across new and widened access roads also increased their length. New wind power stations in Greece are planned to be installed at higher elevations and in terrains facing higher risks for soil erosion and soil biodiversity. The general tendency in the European Union is to sit fewer wind power stations in mountainous and forested land. Still, this pattern is inversed in several countries, particularly in Southern Europe. After screening 29 policy and legal documents, we found that land take is indirectly inferred in the global policy but more directly in the European policy through five non-legally binding documents and three Directives. However, the current European energy policies seem to conflict with nature conservation policies, risking land take acceleration. The study provides insights for reducing land take when planning and constructing wind power stations. We underline the need for better quantification of land take and its integration in the complex process of sustainable spatial planning of investments.

Urbanization, climate and species traits shape mammal communities from local to continental scales

Human-driven environmental changes shape ecological communities from local to global scales. Within cities, landscape-scale patterns and processes and species characteristics generally drive local-scale wildlife diversity. However, cities differ in their structure, species pools, geographies and histories, calling into question the extent to which these drivers of wildlife diversity are predictive at continental scales. In partnership with the Urban Wildlife Information Network, we used occurrence data from 725 sites located across 20 North American cities and a multi-city, multi-species occupancy modelling approach to evaluate the effects of ecoregional characteristics and mammal species traits on the urbanization-diversity relationship. Among 37 native terrestrial mammal species, regional environmental characteristics and species traits influenced within-city effects of urbanization on species occupancy and community composition. Species occupancy and diversity were most negatively related to urbanization in the warmer, less vegetated cities. Additionally, larger-bodied species were most negatively impacted by urbanization across North America. Our results suggest that shifting climate conditions could worsen the effects of urbanization on native wildlife communities, such that conservation strategies should seek to mitigate the combined effects of a warming and urbanizing world.

Predicting climate-driven distribution shifts in Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Hyalomma marginatum is an important tick species which is the main vector of Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever and spotted fever. The species is predominantly distributed in parts of southern Europe, North Africa and West Asia. However, due to ongoing climate change and increasing reports of H. marginatum in central and northern Europe, the expansion of this range poses a potential future risk. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach to model the current and future climatic suitability of H. marginatum was followed. Using high-resolution climatic variables from the Chelsa dataset and an updated list of locations for H. marginatum, ecological niche models were constructed under current environmental conditions using MaxEnt for both current conditions and future projections under the ssp370 and ssp585 scenarios. Models show that the climatically suitable region for H. marginatum matches the current distributional area in the Mediterranean basin and West Asia. When applied to future projections, the models suggest a considerable expansion of H. marginatum's range in the north in Europe as a result of rising temperatures. However, a decline in central Anatolia is also predicted, potentially due to the exacerbation of drought conditions in that region.

Aliens on the Road: Surveying Wildlife Roadkill to Assess the Risk of Biological Invasion

Monitoring the presence and distribution of alien species is pivotal to assessing the risk of biological invasion. In our study, we carried out a worldwide review of roadkill data to investigate geographical patterns of biological invasions. We hypothesise that roadkill data from published literature can turn out to be a valuable resource for researchers and wildlife managers, especially when more focused surveys cannot be performed. We retrieved a total of 2314 works published until January 2022. Among those, only 41 (including our original data) fitted our requirements (i.e., including a total list of roadkilled terrestrial vertebrates, with a number of affected individuals for each species) and were included in our analysis. All roadkilled species from retrieved studies were classified as native or introduced (domestic, paleo-introduced, or recently released). We found that a higher number of introduced species would be recorded among roadkill in Mediterranean and Temperate areas with respect to Tropical and Desert biomes. This is definitely in line with the current knowledge on alien species distribution at the global scale, thus confirming that roadkill datasets can be used beyond the study of road impacts, such as for an assessment of different levels of biological invasions among different countries.

Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs

There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO₂ and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO₂-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.

Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change

Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species' distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.

Global effects of forest modification on herpetofauna communities

As the area covered by human-modified environments grows, it is increasingly important to understand the responses of communities to the novel habitats created, especially for sensitive and threatened taxa. We aimed to improve understanding of the major evolutionary and ecological processes that shape the assemblage of amphibian and reptile communities to forest modifications. To this end, we compiled a global data set of amphibian and reptile surveys in natural, disturbed (burned, logged), and transformed (monocultures, polyspecific plantations) forest communities to assess the richness, phylogenetic diversity, and composition of those communities, as well as the morphological disparity among taxa between natural and modified forest habitats. Forest transformations led to a diversity reduction of 15.46% relative to the statistically nonsignificant effect of disturbances. Transformations also led to a community composition that was 39.4% dissimilar to that on natural forests, compared with 16.1% difference in disturbances. Modifications did not affect the morphological disparity of communities (p = 0.167 and 0.744), and we found little evidence of taxon-specific responses to anthropic impacts. Monocultures and polyspecific plantations detrimentally affected the conservation and ecological value of both amphibian and reptile communities and altered the evolutionary processes shaping these communities, whereas forests with lower impact disturbances might, to some extent, serve as reservoirs of species. Although different mechanisms might buffer the collapse of herpetological communities, preserving remaining natural forests is necessary for conserving communities in the face of future anthropic pressures.

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species' current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.

Why we should be looking for longitudinal patterns in biodiversity

Our understanding of global diversity patterns relies overwhelmingly on ecological and evolutionary correlates of latitude, and largely ignores longitude. However, the two major explanations of biodiversity patterns – energy and stability – are confounded across latitudes, and longitude offers potential solutions. Recent literature shows that the global biogeography of the Cenozoic world is structured by longitudinal barriers. In a few well-studied regions, such as South Africa’s Cape, the Himalayas and the Amazon-Andes continuum, there are strong longitudinal gradients in biodiversity. Often, such gradients occur where high and low past climatic velocities are juxtaposed, and there is clear evidence of higher biodiversity at the climatically-stable end. Understanding longitudinal biodiversity variations more widely can offer new insights towards biodiversity conservation in the face of anthropogenic climatic change.

Cultivation Using Coir Substrate and P or K Enriched Fertilizer Provides Higher Resistance to Drought in Ecologically Diverse Quercus Species

Nursery cultivation practices can be modified to increase resistance to water stress in forest seedlings following field establishment, which may be increasingly important under climate change. We evaluated the morphological (survival, growth) and physiological (chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf water potential) responses to water stress for three ecologically diverse Quercus species (Q. robur, Q. pubescens, and Q. ilex) with varying traits resulting from the combination of growing media (peat, coir) and fertilization (standard, P-enriched, K-enriched). For all species under water stress, seedlings grown in coir had generally higher growth than those grown in peat. Seedlings fertilized with P performed better, particularly for survival; conversely, K fertilization resulted in inconsistent findings. Such results could be explained by a combination of factors. P fertilization resulted in higher P accumulation in seedlings, while no K accumulation was observed in K fertilized seedlings. As expected, the more drought-sensitive species, Q. robur, showed the worst response, while Q. pubescens had a drought resistance equal or better to Q. ilex despite being classified as intermediate in drought resistance in Mediterranean environments.

Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Rare and Threatened Endemic Taxa of Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (Peloponnese, Greece)

Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park is a floristic diversity and endemism hotspot in Greece and one of the main areas where Greek endemic taxa, preliminary assessed as critically endangered and threatened under the IUCN Criteria A and B, are mainly concentrated. The climate and land-cover change impacts on rare and endemic species distributions is more prominent in regional biodiversity hotspots. The main aims of the current study were: (a) to investigate how climate and land-cover change may alter the distribution of four single mountain endemics and three very rare Peloponnesian endemic taxa of the National Park via a species distribution modelling approach, and (b) to estimate the current and future extinction risk of the aforementioned taxa based on the IUCN Criteria A and B, in order to investigate the need for designing an effective plant micro-reserve network and to support decision making on spatial planning efforts and conservation research for a sustainable, integrated management. Most of the taxa analyzed are expected to continue to be considered as critically endangered based on both Criteria A and B under all land-cover/land-use scenarios, GCM/RCP and time-period combinations, while two, namely Alchemilla aroanica and Silene conglomeratica, are projected to become extinct in most future climate change scenarios. When land-cover/land-use data were included in the analyses, these negative effects were less pronounced. However, Silene conglomeratica, the rarest mountain endemic found in the study area, is still expected to face substantial range decline. Our results highlight the urgent need for the establishment of micro-reserves for these taxa.

Recent and rapid ecogeographical rule reversals in Northern Treeshrews

Two of the most-studied ecogeographical rules describe patterns of body size variation within species. Bergmann's rule predicts that individuals have larger body sizes in colder climates (typically at higher latitudes), and the island rule predicts that island populations of small-bodied species average larger in size than their mainland counterparts (insular gigantism). These rules are rarely tested in conjunction or assessed across space and time simultaneously. We investigated these patterns in the Northern Treeshrew (Tupaia belangeri) using museum specimens collected across a wide spatial and temporal range. Contrary to Bergmann's rule, size increases with temperature in T. belangeri, a signal that is highly consistent across space and time. We also show that these rules are intertwined: Bergmann's rule is reversed on the mainland but holds on islands, and therefore the island rule is upheld at higher, but not lower, latitudes. Moreover, we demonstrate a rapid reversal of both rules over time. The mechanism behind these inversions remains unclear, though temperature and precipitation are significant predictors of body size. Ecogeographical rules rely on the assumption of a constant relationship between size and the factors driving its variation. Our results highlight the need to question this assumption and reevaluate these rules in the context of accelerating and uneven climate change.

Mediterranean moth diversity is sensitive to increasing temperatures and drought under climate change

Climate change affects ecosystems worldwide and is threatening biodiversity. Insects, as ectotherm organisms, are strongly dependent on the thermal environment. Yet, little is known about the effects of summer heat and drought on insect diversity. In the Mediterranean climate zone, a region strongly affected by climate change, hot summers might have severe effects on insect communities. Especially the larval stage might be sensitive to thermal variation, as larvae—compared to other life stages—cannot avoid hot temperatures and drought by dormancy. Here we ask, whether inter-annual fluctuations in Mediterranean moth diversity can be explained by temperature (T_Larv) and precipitation during larval development (H_Larv). To address our question, we analyzed moth communities of a Mediterranean coastal forest during the last 20 years. For species with summer-developing larvae, species richness was significantly negatively correlated with T_Larv, while the community composition was affected by both, T_Larv and H_Larv. Therefore, summer-developing larvae seem particularly sensitive to climate change, as hot summers might exceed the larval temperature optima and drought reduces food plant quality. Increasing frequency and severity of temperature and drought extremes due to climate change, therefore, might amplify insect decline in the future.

An Improved Gray Neural Network Method to Optimize Spatial and Temporal Characteristics Analysis of Land-Use Change

In this article, the principles of the gray model and BP neural network model are analyzed, and the characteristics of land-use change and spatial and temporal distribution are studied in-depth, and at the same time, to explore the influence of land-use change on ESV, the relationship between the two is analyzed using gray correlation degree, and a mathematical model is constructed to maximize the benefits of the regional system, coupling economic and ecological benefits, combined with Geo SOS-FLUS model to achieve the optimization of land use. This article constructs a combined prediction model of a gray neural network. The gray differential equation parameters correspond to the weights and thresholds of the neural network, and the optimized parameters are determined by training the neural network to make it stable. Then the training results of the BP neural network are fitted with the results obtained from the gray GM (1.1) model. Finally, the prediction results of the three models, gray GM (1.1), BP God Meridian, and gray neural network model, are compared and analyzed. The global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial aggregation patterns of regional soil erosion and its erosion factors are analyzed using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method in spatial measurement theory.

Conservation value of vanilla agroecosystems for vertebrate diversity in north-east Madagascar

As a result of increasing global demand for food, large areas of natural habitat are being converted to agroecosystems to accommodate crop cultivation. This agricultural expansion is most prominent in the tropics, where many rural communities are dependent solely on farming income for their livelihoods. Such agricultural land conversion can have severe implications for local fauna. In this study, we compared vertebrate species diversity between natural forest habitat and three types of vanilla plantations maintained under varying management regimes in north-east Madagascar. We used diurnal and nocturnal transects to survey vertebrate diversity. Natural forest habitat contained the greatest vertebrate species diversity, and had proportionally more threatened and endemic species than all vanilla plantation types. However, we observed a greater number of species and a higher inverse Simpson index in minimally managed vanilla plantations located within or near natural forest compared to intensively managed vanilla plantations. These findings are important and encouraging for animal conservation and sustainable crop cultivation in Madagascar, and suggest that newly created vanilla plantations, and already existing plantations, should endeavour to follow the more traditional, minimalistic management approach to improve sustainability and promote higher faunal diversity.

In the shadows: wildlife behaviour in tree plantations

Destruction of natural habitats for tree plantations is a major threat to wildlife. These novel environments elicit behavioural changes that can either be detrimental or beneficial to survival and reproduction, with population - and community - level consequences. However, compared with well-documented changes following other forms of habitat modification, we know little about wildlife behavioural responses to tree plantations, and even less about their associated fitness costs. Here, we highlight critical knowledge gaps in understanding the ecological and evolutionary consequences of behavioural shifts caused by tree plantations and discuss how wildlife responses to plantations could be critical in determining which species persist in these highly modified environments.

Rapid ant community reassembly in a Neotropical forest: Recovery dynamics and land-use legacy

Regrowing secondary forests dominate tropical regions today, and a mechanistic understanding of their recovery dynamics provides important insights for conservation. In particular, land-use legacy effects on the fauna have rarely been investigated. One of the most ecologically dominant and functionally important animal groups in tropical forests are the ants. Here, we investigated the recovery of ant communities in a forest-agricultural habitat mosaic in the Ecuadorian Chocó region. We used a replicated chronosequence of previously used cacao plantations and pastures with 1-34 years of regeneration time to study the recovery dynamics of species communities and functional diversity across the two land-use legacies. We compared two independent components of responses on these community properties: resistance, which is measured as the proportion of an initial property that remains following the disturbance; and resilience, which is the rate of recovery relative to its loss. We found that compositional and trait structure similarity to old-growth forest communities increased with regeneration age, whereas ant species richness remained always at a high level along the chronosequence. Land-use legacies influenced species composition, with former cacao plantations showing higher resemblance to old-growth forests than former pastures along the chronosequence. While resistance was low for species composition and high for species richness and traits, all community properties had similarly high resilience. In essence, our results show that ant communities of the Chocó recovery rapidly, with former cacao reaching predicted old-growth forest community levels after 21 years and pastures after 29 years. Recovery in this community was faster than reported from other ecosystems and was likely facilitated by the low-intensity farming in agricultural sites and their proximity to old-growth forest remnants. Our study indicates the great recovery potential for this otherwise highly threatened biodiversity hotspot.

Management effects on soil nematode abundance differ among functional groups and land-use types at a global scale

Anthropogenic land use is threatening global biodiversity. As one of the most abundant animals on Earth, nematodes occupy several key positions in belowground food webs and contribute to many ecosystem functions and services. However, the effects of land use on nematode abundance and its determinants remain poorly understood at a global scale. To characterize nematodes' responses to land use across trophic groups, we used a dataset of 6,825 soil samples globally to assess how nematode abundance varies among regional land-use types (i.e., primary vegetation, secondary vegetation, pasture, cropland, and urban) and local land-use intensities (i.e., human-managed or not). We also quantified the interactive effects of land use and environmental predictors (i.e., mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, soil organic carbon, soil pH, global vegetation biomass, and global vegetation productivity) on nematode abundance. We found that total nematode abundance and the abundance of bacterivores, fungivores, herbivores, omnivores, and predators generally increased or were not affected under management across land-use types. Specifically, the most numerically abundant bacterivores were higher in managed than in unmanaged secondary vegetation habitats and urban areas, and herbivores were more abundant in managed than in unmanaged primary and secondary vegetation habitats. Furthermore, the numbers of significant environmental predictors of nematode abundance were reduced and the magnitude and the direction of the predictors were changed under management. We also found that nematode abundance was more variable and less determined by environmental factors in urban than in other land-use types. These findings challenge the view that human land use decreases animal abundance across trophic groups, but highlight that land use is altering the trophic composition of soil nematodes and its relationships with the environment at the global scale.

Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide

Several previous studies have investigated changes in insect biodiversity, with some highlighting declines and others showing turnover in species composition without net declines^1-5. Although research has shown that biodiversity changes are driven primarily by land-use change and increasingly by climate change^6,7, the potential for interaction between these drivers and insect biodiversity on the global scale remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between indices of historical climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions of almost 50% in the abundance and 27% in the number of species within insect assemblages relative to those in less-disturbed habitats with lower rates of historical climate warming. These patterns are particularly evident in the tropical realm, whereas some positive responses of biodiversity to climate change occur in non-tropical regions in natural habitats. A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Island Bees: The Aegean Archipelago

Pollinators’ climate change impact assessments focus mainly on mainland regions. Thus, we are unaware how island species might fare in a rapidly changing world. This is even more pressing in the Mediterranean Basin, a global biodiversity hotspot. In Greece, a regional pollinator hotspot, climate change research is in its infancy and the insect Wallacean shortfall still remains unaddressed. In a species distribution modelling framework, we used the most comprehensive occurrence database for bees in Greece to locate the bee species richness hotspots in the Aegean, and investigated whether these might shift in the future due to climate change and assessed the Natura 2000 protected areas network effectiveness. Range contractions are anticipated for most taxa, becoming more prominent over time. Species richness hotspots are currently located in the NE Aegean and in highly disturbed sites. They will shift both altitudinally and latitudinally in the future. A small proportion of these hotspots are currently included in the Natura 2000 protected areas network and this proportion is projected to decrease in the coming decades. There is likely an extinction debt present in the Aegean bee communities that could result to pollination network collapse. There is a substantial conservation gap in Greece regarding bees and a critical re-assessment of the established Greek protected areas network is needed, focusing on areas identified as bee diversity hotspots over time.

Combined climatic and anthropogenic stress threaten resilience of important wetland sites in an arid region

Climate change and anthropogenic perturbation threaten resilience of wetlands globally, particularly in regions where environmental conditions are already hot and dry, and human impacts are rapidly intensifying and expanding. Here we assess the vulnerability of Ramsar wetlands of six North African countries (Western Sahara, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt) by asking three questions: (1) what are the recent anthropogenic changes that the wetlands experienced? (2) what are the projected future climatic changes? (3) how wetlands with different conservation priorities and globally threatened species are impacted by anthropogenic pressures? We used climatic data (historical and future projections) from WorldClim 2, drought index (SPEI), and human footprint index (HFI for 2000 and 2019) to estimate anthropogenic pressures, as well as waterbird conservation value (WCV: a metric indicating conservation priority of sites) and the breeding distribution of three threatened waterbird species (Aythya nyroca, Marmaronetta angustirostris, and Oxyura leucocephala) to understand how biodiversity is impacted by anthropogenic pressure. We found that temperature, precipitation, drought, and human footprint index (HFI) increased during earlier decades. Interestingly, areas with high HFI are projected to encounter lower warming but more severe drought. We also found that WCV was positively correlated with the magnitude of current HFI, indicating that sites of high conservation value for waterbirds encounter higher levels of anthropogenic pressure. The breeding range of the three threatened species of waterbirds showed a marked increase in HFI and is projected to experience a severe increase in temperature by 2081-2100, especially under the high emission scenario (SSP8.5) where environmental temperature becomes closer to the species critical maximum. Our results highlight the importance of integrating new conservation measures that increase the resilience of North African protected wetlands to reduce extinction risk to biodiversity.

Vertebrate population trends are influenced by interactions between land use, climatic position, habitat loss and climate change

Rapid human-driven environmental changes are impacting animal populations around the world. Currently, land-use and climate change are two of the biggest pressures facing biodiversity. However, studies investigating the impacts of these pressures on population trends often do not consider potential interactions between climate and land-use change. Further, a population's climatic position (how close the ambient temperature and precipitation conditions are to the species' climatic tolerance limits) is known to influence responses to climate change but has yet to be investigated with regard to its influence on land-use change responses over time. Consequently, important variations across species' ranges in responses to environmental changes may be being overlooked. Here, we combine data from the Living Planet and BioTIME databases to carry out a global analysis exploring the impacts of land use, habitat loss, climatic position, climate change and the interactions between these variables, on vertebrate population trends. By bringing these datasets together, we analyse over 7,000 populations across 42 countries. We find that land-use change is interacting with climate change and a population's climatic position to influence rates of population change. Moreover, features of a population's local landscape (such as surrounding land cover) play important roles in these interactions. For example, populations in agricultural land uses where maximum temperatures were closer to their hot thermal limit, declined at faster rates when there had also been rapid losses in surrounding semi-natural habitat. The complex interactions between these variables on populations highlight the importance of taking intraspecific variation and interactions between local and global pressures into account. Understanding how drivers of change are interacting and impacting populations, and how this varies spatially, is critical if we are to identify populations at risk, predict species' responses to future environmental changes and produce suitable conservation strategies.

Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal

Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.