Abundance of impacted forest patches less than 5 km2 is a key driver of the incidence of malaria in Amazonian Brazil

Disentangling the seasonality effects of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon basin

The evidence of seasonal patterns in malaria epidemiology in the Brazilian Amazon basin indicates the need for a thorough investigation of seasonality in this last and heterogeneous region. Additionally, since these patterns are linked to climate variables, malaria models should also incorporate them. This study applies wavelet analysis to incidence data from 2003 to 2020 in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-Malaria) database. A mathematical model with climate-dependent parametrization is proposed to study counts of malaria cases over time based on notification data, temperature and rainfall. The wavelet analysis reveals marked seasonality in states Amazonas and Amapá throughout the study period, and from 2003 to 2012 in Pará. However, these patterns are not as marked in other states such as Acre and Pará in more recent years. The wavelet coherency analysis indicates a strong association between incidence and temperature, especially for the municipalities of Macapá and Manaus, and a similar association for rainfall. The mathematical model fits well with the observed temporal trends in both municipalities. Studies on climate-dependent mathematical models provide a good assessment of the baseline epidemiology of malaria. Additionally, the understanding of seasonality effects and the application of models have great potential as tools for studying interventions for malaria control.

Malaria in areas under mining activity in the Amazon: A review

Deforestation and high human mobility due to mining activities have been key to the increase in malaria cases in the Americas. Here, we review the epidemiological and control aspects of malaria in the Amazon mining areas. Epidemiological evidence shows: 1) a positive correlation between illegal mining activity and malaria incidence, mostly in the Amazon region; 2) most Brazilian miners are males aged 15-29 years who move between states and even countries; 3) miners do not fear the disease and rely on medical care, diagnosis, and medication when they become ill; 4) illegal mining has emerged as the most reported anthropogenic activity within indigenous lands and is identified as a major cause of malaria outbreaks among indigenous people in the Amazon; and 5) because mining is largely illegal, most areas are not covered by any healthcare facilities or activities, leading to little assistance in the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. Our review identified five strategies for reducing the malaria incidence in areas with mining activities: 1) reviewing legislation to control deforestation and mining expansion, particularly in indigenous lands; 2) strengthening malaria surveillance by expanding the network of community health agents to support rapid diagnosis and treatment; 3) reinforcing vector control strategies, such as the use of insecticide-treated nets; 4) integrating deforestation alerts into the national malaria control program; and 5) implementing multi-sectoral activities and providing prompt assistance to indigenous populations. With this roadmap, we can expect a decrease in malaria incidence in the Amazonian mining areas in the future.

Forest cover percentage drives the peak biting time of Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Deforestation is an important driver of malaria dynamics, with a relevant impact on mosquito ecology, including larval habitat availability, blood-feeding behaviour, and peak biting time. The latter is one of several entomological metrics to evaluate vectorial capacity and effectiveness of disease control. This study aimed to test the effect of forest cover percentage on the peak biting time of Plasmodium-uninfected and infected Nyssorhynchus darlingi females.

METHODS

Mosquitoes were captured utilizing human landing catch (HLC) in the peridomestic habitat in field collections carried out in the wet, wet-dry transition, and dry seasons from 2014 to 2017 in areas with active malaria transmission in Amazonian Brazil. The study locations were in rural settlements in areas with the mean annual malaria parasite incidence (Annual Parasite Incidence, API ≥ 30). All Ny. darlingi females were tested for Plasmodium spp. infection using real time PCR technique. Forest cover percentage was calculated for each collection site using QGIS v. 2.8 and was categorized in three distinct deforestation scenarios: (1) degraded, < 30% forest cover, (2) intermediate, 30-70% forest cover, and (3) preserved, > 70% forest cover.

RESULTS

The highest number of uninfected female Ny. darlingi was found in degraded landscape-sites with forest cover < 30% in any peak biting time between 18:00 and 0:00. Partially degraded landscape-sites, with (30-70%) forest cover, showed the highest number of vivax-infected females, with a peak biting time of 21:00-23:00. The number of P. falciparum-infected mosquitoes was highest in preserved sites with > 70% forest cover, a peak biting at 19:00-20:00, and in sites with 30-70% forest cover at 22:00-23:00.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this study show empirically that degraded landscapes favour uninfected Ny. darlingi with a peak biting time at dusk (18:00-19:00), whereas partially degraded landscapes affect the behaviour of Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi by shifting its peak biting time towards hours after dark (21:00-23:00). In preserved sites, Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi bite around dusk (18:00-19:00) and shortly after (19:00-20:00).

Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries

Deforestation, landscape dynamics, and socioeconomic factors within the tropical Americas, Africa, and Asia may have different impacts on malaria incidence. To evaluate how these drivers affect malaria incidence at the global and regional scale, we collected malaria incidence rates from 2000 to 2019 from 67 tropical countries, along with forest loss, land use change types, and socioeconomic elements. LASSO regression, linear mixed effect modeling, and k-fold cross validation were used to create and evaluate the models. Regionality plays a role in the significance of varying risk factors. The Tropical Americas model had the highest coefficient of determination (marginal R2 = 0.369), while the Africa model showed the highest predictive accuracy with only a 17.4% error rate. Strong associations between tree cover loss (β = -4037.73, p < 0.001) and percentage forest area (β = 5373.18, p = 0.012) in Africa, and percent of key biodiversity areas under protection (β = 496.71, p < 0.001; β = 1679.20, p < 0.001) in the tropical Americas and Asia with malaria incidence indicates that malaria risk should be considered during conservation policy development, and recommends that individual approaches to policy and investment be considered when implementing malaria interventions on different spatial scales.

Effect of spatiotemporal variables on abundance, biting activity and parity of Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in peri-Iquitos, Peru

BACKGROUND

In malaria endemic regions of the Peruvian Amazon, rainfall together with river level and breeding site availability drive fluctuating vector mosquito abundance and human malaria cases, leading to temporal heterogeneity. The main variables influencing spatial transmission include location of communities, mosquito behaviour, land use/land cover, and human ecology/behaviour. The main objective was to evaluate seasonal and microgeographic biting behaviour of the malaria vector Nyssorhynchus (or Anopheles) darlingi in Amazonian Peru and to investigate effects of seasonality on malaria transmission.

METHODS

We captured mosquitoes from 18:00 to 06:00 h using Human Landing Catch in two riverine (Lupuna, Santa Emilia) and two highway (El Triunfo, Nuevo Horizonte) communities indoors and outdoors from 8 houses per community, during the dry and rainy seasons from February 2016 to January 2017. We then estimated parity rate, daily survival and age of a portion of each collection of Ny. darlingi. All collected specimens of Ny. darlingi were tested for the presence of Plasmodium vivax or Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites using real-time PCR targeting the small subunit of the 18S rRNA.

RESULTS

Abundance of Ny. darlingi varied across village, season, and biting behaviour (indoor vs outdoor), and was highly significant between rainy and dry seasons (p < 0.0001). Biting patterns differed, although not significantly, and persisted regardless of season, with peaks in highway communities at ~ 20:00 h in contrast to biting throughout the night (i.e., 18:00-06:00) in riverine communities. Of 3721 Ny. darlingi tested for Plasmodium, 23 (0.62%) were infected. We detected Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi in both community types and most (20/23) were captured outdoors during the rainy season; 17/23 before midnight. Seventeen Ny. darlingi were infected with P. vivax, and 6 with P. falciparum. No infected Ny. darlingi were captured during the dry season. Significantly higher rates of parity were detected in Ny. darlingi during the rainy season (average 64.69%) versus the dry season (average 36.91%) and by community, Lupuna, a riverine village, had the highest proportion of parous to nulliparous females during the rainy season.

CONCLUSIONS

These data add a seasonal dimension to malaria transmission in peri-Iquitos, providing more evidence that, at least locally, the greatest risk of malaria transmission is outdoors during the rainy season mainly before midnight, irrespective of whether the community was located adjacent to the highway or along the river.

"Long COVID" and Its Impact on The Environment: Emerging Concerns and Perspectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented global health and economic crises. The emergence of long COVID-19 has raised concerns about the interplay between SARS-CoV-2 infections, climate change, and the environment. In this context, a concise analysis of the potential long-term effects of the COVID-19 epidemic along with the awareness aboutenvironmental issues are realized. While COVID-19 effects in the short-term have reduced environmental air pollutants and pressures, CO2 emissions are projected to increase as the economy recovers and growth rates return to pre-COVID-19 levels. This review discusses the systematic effects of both the short-term and long-term effects of the pandemic on the clean energy revolution and environmental issues. This article also discusses opportunities to achieve long-term environmental benefits and emphasizes the importance of future policies in promoting global environmental sustainability. Future directions for growth and recovery are presented to cope with long COVID-19 epidemic along with the critical findings focussing on various aspects: waste management, air quality improvement.

Simian malaria: a narrative review on emergence, epidemiology and threat to global malaria elimination

Simian malaria from wild non-human primate populations is increasingly recognised as a public health threat and is now the main cause of human malaria in Malaysia and some regions of Brazil. In 2022, Malaysia became the first country not to achieve malaria elimination due to zoonotic simian malaria. We review the global distribution and drivers of simian malaria and identify priorities for diagnosis, treatment, surveillance, and control. Environmental change is driving closer interactions between humans and wildlife, with malaria parasites from non-human primates spilling over into human populations and human malaria parasites spilling back into wild non-human primate populations. These complex transmission cycles require new molecular and epidemiological approaches to track parasite spread. Current methods of malaria control are ineffective, with wildlife reservoirs and primarily outdoor-biting mosquito vectors urgently requiring the development of novel control strategies. Without these, simian malaria has the potential to undermine malaria elimination globally.

Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems

Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use change, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera-Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following 2 months. The risk is influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may help public health officials and policymakers develop effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to flag high-risk areas and critical periods, considering the time lag effect.

Entomological Reference Collection: 85 years of contributions to public health

The Department of Hygiene of the Faculty of Medicine of São Paulo (FMUSP), organized with the support of the Rockefeller Foundation, became the Institute of Hygiene, with the inaugural class taught by Samuel Darling in 1918. The history of Public Health Entomology is mixed with that of the Institute itself, which became the Faculty of Hygiene and Public Health in 1945. Still in the 1930s, Paulo César de Azevedo Antunes and John Lane organized Public Health Entomology within the Medical Parasitology area of the then Institute of Hygiene. During this period, the entomology laboratory came to be recognized for its research in the systematics of hematophagous insects, as well as in the ecology, biology and behavior of vectors. The Entomological Reference Collection (CER) originated naturally from the research of Paulo César Antunes and John Lane and is a national and international heritage covering primary and secondary types of insect species that are of interest to public health. Over the years, it has been consolidated with the efforts of Augusto Ayroza Galvão, Renato Corrêa, José Coutinho, Nelson Cerqueira, Ernesto Rabello, Oswaldo Forattini and others. In its over eighty years of activities, CER has enabled the training of several scientists able to act in programs of surveillance and control of endemic diseases associated with insect vectors throughout Latin America, in addition to training taxonomists focused on insects of interest in Public Health. Researchers from other Brazilian institutes and abroad joined the entomology laboratory because of its importance and the research developed in it. The growing scientific production made it possible for entomological studies developed at the Faculty of Public Health (FSP) to gain international visibility, contributing to the development of disease prevention and epidemic control actions in the country.

Hernández-Valencia J, F. Gómez G, M. Correa M. Spatial and Temporal Diversity Variation in the Anopheles Communities in Malaria-Endemic Regions of Colombia

This study aimed to evaluate at a temporospatial scale, the influence of anthropogenic land cover changes in the Anopheles species community composition and diversity in two Colombian malaria-endemic regions, Bajo Cauca and Pacific. To determine variations over time, mosquitoes were collected in two time periods; land cover types were characterized on orthorectified aerial photographs, and landscape metrics were estimated for each locality and period. A temporal dissimilarity analysis to evaluated species replacement and the nestedness species loss/gain showed the influence of the species loss or gain component on Anopheles species assemblage (23%). The relationship between land cover variation and Anopheles beta diversity, evaluated by regression analysis, showed the effect of forest variation in the Anopheles community (βsim and forest r2 = 0.9323; βsne and forest r2 = 0.9425). Furthermore, a canonical correspondence analysis showed that the land cover types associated with Anopheles species presence were bare soil, shrub, wet areas, and forest. Results demonstrated the impact of land cover changes attributed to human activities on Anopheles population dynamics, over time; this was evidenced as species loss or gain, which was specific to each locality. Notably, the main malaria vectors were dominant in most localities over time, suggesting their tolerance to anthropogenic transformations; alternatively, the environmental changes are providing adequate ecological conditions for their persistence. Finally, the data generated are relevant for understanding the impact that environmental change may have on the dynamics of the neotropical malaria vectors. Thus, this research has potential implications for vector control interventions.

An Overview of Anthropogenic Actions as Drivers for Emerging and Re-Emerging Zoonotic Diseases

Population growth and industrialization have led to a race for greater food and supply productivity. As a result, the occupation and population of forest areas, contact with wildlife and their respective parasites and vectors, the trafficking and consumption of wildlife, the pollution of water sources, and the accumulation of waste occur more frequently. Concurrently, the agricultural and livestock production for human consumption has accelerated, often in a disorderly way, leading to the deforestation of areas that are essential for the planet's climatic and ecological balance. The effects of human actions on other ecosystems such as the marine ecosystem cause equally serious damage, such as the pollution of this habitat, and the reduction of the supply of fish and other animals, causing the coastal population to move to the continent. The sum of these factors leads to an increase in the demands such as housing, basic sanitation, and medical assistance, making these populations underserved and vulnerable to the effects of global warming and to the emergence of emerging and re-emerging diseases. In this article, we discuss the anthropic actions such as climate changes, urbanization, deforestation, the trafficking and eating of wild animals, as well as unsustainable agricultural intensification which are drivers for emerging and re-emerging of zoonotic pathogens such as viral (Ebola virus, hantaviruses, Hendravirus, Nipah virus, rabies, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease-2), bacterial (leptospirosis, Lyme borreliosis, and tuberculosis), parasitic (leishmaniasis) and fungal pathogens, which pose a substantial threat to the global community. Finally, we shed light on the urgent demand for the implementation of the One Health concept as a collaborative global approach to raise awareness and educate people about the science behind and the battle against zoonotic pathogens to mitigate the threat for both humans and animals.

Malaria Resilience in South America: Epidemiology, Vector Biology, and Immunology Insights from the Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research Network in Peru and Brazil

The 1990s saw the rapid reemergence of malaria in Amazonia, where it remains an important public health priority in South America. The Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR) was designed to take a multidisciplinary approach toward identifying novel malaria control and elimination strategies. Based on geographically and epidemiologically distinct sites in the Northeastern Peruvian and Western Brazilian Amazon regions, synergistic projects integrate malaria epidemiology, vector biology, and immunology. The Amazonian ICEMR's overarching goal is to understand how human behavior and other sociodemographic features of human reservoirs of transmission-predominantly asymptomatically parasitemic people-interact with the major Amazonian malaria vector, Nyssorhynchus (formerly Anopheles) darlingi, and with human immune responses to maintain malaria resilience and continued endemicity in a hypoendemic setting. Here, we will review Amazonian ICEMR's achievements on the synergies among malaria epidemiology, Plasmodium-vector interactions, and immune response, and how those provide a roadmap for further research, and, most importantly, point toward how to achieve malaria control and elimination in the Americas.

Reaching the malaria elimination goal in Brazil: a spatial analysis and time-series study

Background

Since 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016–2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil’s achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030?

Methods

Analytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025–2050.

Results

Brazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (− 56%), Amapá (− 75%), and Amazonas (− 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116–141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon.

Conclusions

It is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today’s cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-00945-5.

On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis

Background

Malaria incidence in Brazil reversed its decreasing trend when cases from recent years, as recent as 2015, exhibited an increase in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the area with the highest transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. In fact, an increase of more than 20% in the years 2016 and 2017 revealed possible vulnerabilities in the national malaria-control programme.

Methods

Factors potentially associated with this reversal, including migration, economic activities, and deforestation, were studied. Past incidences of malaria cases due to P. vivax and P. falciparum were analysed with a spatio-temporal Bayesian model using more than 5 million individual records of malaria cases from January of 2003 to December of 2018 in the Brazilian Amazon to establish the municipalities with unexpected increases in cases.

Results

Plasmodium vivax incidence surpassed the past trends in Amazonas (AM), Amapá (AP), Acre (AC), Pará (PA), Roraima (RR), and Rondônia (RO), implying a rebound of these states between 2015 and 2018. On the other hand, P. falciparum also surpassed the past trends in AM, AC, AP, and RR with less severity than P. vivax incidence. Outdoor activities, agricultural activities, accumulated deforestation, and travelling might explain the rebound in malaria cases in RR, AM, PA, and RO, mainly in P. vivax cases. These variables, however, did not explain the rebound of either P. vivax and P. falciparum cases in AC and AP states or P. falciparum cases in RR and RO states.

Conclusion

The Amazon basin has experienced an unexpected increase in malaria cases, mainly in P. vivax cases, in some regions of the states of Amazonas, Acre, Pará, Amapá, Roraima, and Rondônia from 2015 to 2018 and agricultural activities, outdoor activities, travelling activities, and accumulated deforestation appear linked to this rebound of cases in particular regions with different impact. This shows the multifactorial effects and the heterogeneity of the Amazon basin, boosting the necessity of focusing the malaria control programme on particular social, economic, and environmental conditions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-04037-x.

Molecular Analysis Reveals a High Diversity of Anopheline Mosquitoes in Yanomami Lands and the Pantanal Region of Brazil

Identifying the species of the subfamily Anophelinae that are Plasmodium vectors is important to vector and malaria control. Despite the increase in cases, vector mosquitoes remain poorly known in Brazilian indigenous communities. This study explores Anophelinae mosquito diversity in the following areas: (1) a Yanomami reserve in the northwestern Amazon Brazil biome and (2) the Pantanal biome in southwestern Brazil. This is carried out by analyzing cytochrome c oxidase (COI) gene data using Refined Single Linkage (RESL), Assemble Species by Automatic Partitioning (ASAP), and tree-based multi-rate Poisson tree processes (mPTP) as species delimitation approaches. A total of 216 specimens collected from the Yanomami and Pantanal regions were sequenced and combined with 547 reference sequences for species delimitation analyses. The mPTP analysis for all sequences resulted in the delimitation of 45 species groups, while the ASAP analysis provided the partition of 48 groups. RESL analysis resulted in 63 operational taxonomic units (OTUs). This study expands our scant knowledge of anopheline species in the Yanomami and Pantanal regions. At least 18 species of Anophelinae mosquitoes were found in these study areas. Additional studies are now required to determine the species that transmit Plasmodium spp. in these regions.

The socio-environmental production of malaria in three municipalities in the Carajás region, Pará, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the environmental production of malaria in the municipalities of Marabá, Parauapebas, and Canaã dos Carajás, in Pará, from 2014 to 2018.

METHODS

This ecological, cross-sectional study used epidemiological data in the Sistema de Informações de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Malária (Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance Information System) from the Secretaria de Saúde do Estado do Pará (State of Pará Health Department), cartographic data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and environmental data in the Projeto TerraClass (TerraClass Project) from the National Institute of Space Research (INPE). Statistical analyses used the chi-square test, while the spatial ones, the kernel and Moran’s (I) global bivariate techniques.

RESULTS

We analyzed a total of 437 confirmed cases of malaria in the selected area and period. The highest percentage of cases occurred among male miners and farmers, living in rural areas; Plasmodium vivax was the most frequent species; and the most used diagnosis, the thick drop/smear. We also observed a heterogeneous distribution of the disease — with evidence of spatial dependence between incidence areas and different forms of land use, and spatial autocorrelations related to the high variability of anthropic activities in the municipalities.

CONCLUSION

The environmental production of malaria relates mainly to cattle production and mining — anthropisms related to land use and occupation in the observed municipalities. Spatial data analysis technologies sufficed for the construction of the epidemiological scenario of the disease.

Deforestation hotspots, climate crisis, and the perfect scenario for the next epidemic: The Amazon time bomb

Currently most researchers consider humanity's extermination of biodiversity as the antecedent of ideal conditions for the emergence of new viruses and diseases. Animals lose their natural habitats due to extensive landscape changes, consequently crowding them together and increasing their interaction with humans. Additionally, it is also important to emphasise the increasing concern on climate change because climate can modify the distribution and intensity of other diseases such as vector-borne disease. Unfortunately, the global resources for biodiversity conservation were diluted by government support for activities harmful to the environment. A tragic example is from the Amazon rainforest, that experienced fast environmental depletion and high social inequalities. Extractive systems and extensive land use on a large scale have induced deforestation, great loss of biodiversity, carbon emission, and water contamination, leading to indigenous land dispossession, violence, and rural-urban migration. The deforested areas in the Amazon region increase considerably at an alarming speed each year. The COVID-19 pandemic is an evidence to show how viruses and pathogens move further and faster than before, which means we must also show a quick response. It requires financing and, mostly, changes in human behaviour. The message is simple: we need to rethink our current relationship with nature and with ourselves, which should lead to a social transformation towards the sustainable use of the available resources.

Zika virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

INTRODUCTION

Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted byAedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes between humans and non-human primates. Climate change may enhance virus reproduction in Aedes spp. mosquito populations, resulting in intensified ZIKV outbreaks. The study objective was to explore how an outbreak similar to the 2016 ZIKV outbreak in Brazil might unfold with projected climate change.

METHODS

A compartmental infectious disease model that included compartments for humans and mosquitoes was developed to fit the 2016 ZIKV outbreak data from Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, published polynomial relationships between temperature and temperature-sensitive mosquito population and virus transmission parameters (mosquito mortality, development rate, and ZIKV extrinsic incubation period) were used. Projections for future outbreaks were obtained by simulating transmission with effects of projected average monthly temperatures on temperature-sensitive model parameters at each of three future time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The projected future climate was obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the Co-Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) with two radiative forcing values, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of temperature-dependent parameters on the model outcomes.

RESULTS

Climate change scenarios impacted the model outcomes, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the duration of the ZIKV outbreak. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP4.5, the peak incidence was 22,030 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 12 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 52 compared to 41 weeks. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP8.5, the peak incidence was 21,786 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 11 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 50 compared to 41weeks. The increases are due to optimal climate conditions for mosquitoes, with the mean temperature reaching 28 °C in the warmest months. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), mean temperatures extend above optimal for mosquito survival in the warmest months.

CONCLUSION

Outbreaks of ZIKV in locations similar to Brazil are expected to be more intense with a warming climate. As climate change impacts are becoming increasingly apparent on human health, it is important to quantify the effect and use this knowledge to inform decisions on prevention and control strategies.

Description of malaria vectors (Diptera: Culicidae) in two agricultural settlements in the Western Brazilian Amazon

The majority of malaria cases in South America occur in rural areas of the Amazon region. Although these areas have a significant impact on malaria cases, few entomological studies have been carried out there. This study aimed to describe entomological parameters in settlements in Rondonia State, Brazil. Collections of anopheles were carried out using the Protected Human Attraction Technique (PHAT). The risk and the potential for malaria transmission were assessed using the human biting rate (HBR), the sporozoite rate (SR) and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). The results confirmed that Nyssorhynchus darlingi is the predominant species in the two studied locations. Although settlement in the two study sites has occurred at different times, the species richness found was low, showing that environmental changes caused by anthropological actions have probably favor the adaptation of Ny. darlingi species. From the total of 615 anopheline mosquitoes assessed, seven (1.1%) were positive for Plasmodium sp. infections. The EIR revealed that Ny. darlingi contributes to malaria transmission in both locations, as it was responsible for 0.05 infectious bites in humans at night in the old settlement and 0.02 in the recent occupation. In the two study sites, the biting occurred more frequently at dusk. Nyssorhynchus darlingi was prevalent in areas of recent colonization but, even when present in a low density, this species could maintain the transmission of malaria in the older settlement. The entomological information obtained in this study is important and may aid the selection of vector control actions in these locations.

Epidemiology, Biodiversity, and Technological Trajectories in the Brazilian Amazon: From Malaria to COVID-19

The Amazon biome is under severe threat due to increasing deforestation rates and loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services while sustaining a high burden of neglected tropical diseases. Approximately two thirds of this biome are located within Brazilian territory. There, socio-economic and environmental landscape transformations are linked to the regional agrarian economy dynamics, which has developed into six techno-productive trajectories (TTs). These TTs are the product of the historical interaction between Peasant and Farmer and Rancher practices, technologies and rationalities. This article investigates the distribution of the dominant Brazilian Amazon TTs and their association with environmental degradation and vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases. The goal is to provide a framework for the joint debate of the local economic, environmental and health dimensions. We calculated the dominant TT for each municipality in 2017. Peasant trajectories (TT1, TT2, and TT3) are dominant in ca. fifty percent of the Amazon territory, mostly concentrated in areas covered by continuous forest where malaria is an important morbidity and mortality cause. Cattle raising trajectories are associated with higher deforestation rates. Meanwhile, Farmer and Rancher economies are becoming dominant trajectories, comprising large scale cattle and grain production. These trajectories are associated with rapid biodiversity loss and a high prevalence of neglected tropical diseases, such as leishmaniasis, Aedes-borne diseases and Chagas disease. Overall, these results defy simplistic views that the dominant development trajectory for the Amazon will optimize economic, health and environmental indicators. This approach lays the groundwork for a more integrated narrative consistent with the economic history of the Brazilian Amazon.

The association between a conditional cash transfer programme and malaria incidence: a longitudinal ecological study in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015

Background

Malaria causes 400 thousand deaths worldwide annually. In 2018, 25% (187,693) of the total malaria cases in the Americas were in Brazil, with nearly all (99%) Brazilian cases in the Amazon region. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) is a conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme launched in 2003 to reduce poverty and has led to improvements in health outcomes. CCT programmes may reduce the burden of malaria by alleviating poverty and by promoting access to healthcare, however this relationship is underexplored. This study investigated the association between BFP coverage and malaria incidence in Brazil.

Methods

A longitudinal panel study was conducted of 807 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for demographic and socioeconomic covariates and time trends were employed with fixed effects specifications.

Results

A one percentage point increase in municipal BFP coverage was associated with a 0.3% decrease in the incidence of malaria (RR = 0.997; 95% CI = 0.994–0.998). The average municipal BFP coverage increased 24 percentage points over the period 2004–2015 corresponding to be a reduction of 7.2% in the malaria incidence.

Conclusions

Higher coverage of the BFP was associated with a reduction in the incidence of malaria. CCT programmes should be encouraged in endemic regions for malaria in order to mitigate the impact of disease and poverty itself in these settings.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11255-0.

Seasonality modulates the direct and indirect influences of forest cover on larval anopheline assemblages in western Amazônia

Serious concerns have arisen regarding urbanization processes in western Amazônia, which result in the creation of artificial habitats, promoting the colonization of malaria vectors. We used structural equation modelling to investigate direct and indirect effects of forest cover on larval habitats and anopheline assemblages in different seasons. We found 3474 larvae in the dry season and 6603 in the rainy season, totalling ten species and confirming the presence of malaria vectors across all sites. Forest cover had direct and indirect (through limnological variables) effects on the composition of larval anopheline assemblages in the rainy season. However, during the dry season, forest cover directly affected larval distribution and habitat variables (with no indirect affects). Additionally, artificial larval habitats promote ideal conditions for malaria vectors in Amazonia, mainly during the rainy season, with positive consequences for anopheline assemblages. Therefore, the application of integrated management can be carried out during both seasons. However, we suggest that the dry season is the optimal time because larval habitats are more limited, smaller in volume and more accessible for applying vector control techniques.

Vector role and human biting activity of Anophelinae mosquitoes in different landscapes in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Environmental disturbance, deforestation and socioeconomic factors all affect malaria incidence in tropical and subtropical endemic areas. Deforestation is the major driver of habitat loss and fragmentation, which frequently leads to shifts in the composition, abundance and spatial distribution of vector species. The goals of the present study were to: (i) identify anophelines found naturally infected with Plasmodium; (ii) measure the effects of landscape on the number of Nyssorhynchus darlingi, presence of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae, human biting rate (HBR) and malaria cases; and (iii) determine the frequency and peak biting time of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes and Ny. darlingi.

METHODS

Anopheline mosquitoes were collected in peridomestic and forest edge habitats in seven municipalities in four Amazon Brazilian states. Females were identified to species and tested for Plasmodium by real-time PCR. Negative binomial regression was used to measure any association between deforestation and number of Ny. darlingi, number of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae, HBR and malaria. Peak biting time of Ny. darlingi and Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae were determined in the 12-h collections. Binomial logistic regression measured the association between presence of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae and landscape metrics and malaria cases.

RESULTS

Ninety-one females of Ny. darlingi, Ny. rangeli, Ny. benarrochi B and Ny. konderi B were found to be infected with Plasmodium. Analysis showed that the number of malaria cases and the number of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae were more prevalent in sites with higher edge density and intermediate forest cover (30-70%). The distance of the drainage network to a dwelling was inversely correlated to malaria risk. The peak biting time of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae was 00:00-03:00 h. The presence of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes was higher in landscapes with > 13 malaria cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Nyssorhynchus darlingi, Ny. rangeli, Ny. benarrochi B and Ny. konderi B can be involved in malaria transmission in rural settlements. The highest fraction of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae was caught from midnight to 03:00 h. In some Amazonian localities, the highest exposure to infectious bites occurs when residents are sleeping, but transmission can occur throughout the night. Forest fragmentation favors increases in both malaria and the occurrence of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes in peridomestic habitat. The use of insecticide-impregnated mosquito nets can decrease human exposure to infectious Anophelinae and malaria transmission.

Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

INTRODUCTION

Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011-2040 (short-term), 2041-2070 (mid-term), and 2071-2100 (long-term).

METHODS

A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil.

RESULTS

Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.

Satellite Observations and Malaria: New Opportunities for Research and Applications

Satellite remote sensing provides a wealth of information about environmental factors that influence malaria transmission cycles and human populations at risk. Long-term observations facilitate analysis of climate–malaria relationships, and high-resolution data can be used to assess the effects of agriculture, urbanization, deforestation, and water management on malaria. New sources of very-high-resolution satellite imagery and synthetic aperture radar data will increase the precision and frequency of observations. Cloud computing platforms for remote sensing data combined with analysis-ready datasets and high-level data products have made satellite remote sensing more accessible to nonspecialists. Further collaboration between the malaria and remote sensing communities is needed to develop and implement useful geospatial data products that will support global efforts toward malaria control, elimination, and eradication.

Malaria transmission in landscapes with varying deforestation levels and timelines in the Amazon: a longitudinal spatiotemporal study

The relationship between deforestation and malaria is a spatiotemporal process of variation in Plasmodium incidence in human-dominated Amazonian rural environments. The present study aimed to assess the underlying mechanisms of malarial exposure risk at a fine scale in 5-km2 sites across the Brazilian Amazon, using field-collected data with a longitudinal spatiotemporally structured approach. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled from 80 sites to investigate the Plasmodium infection rate in mosquito communities and to estimate the malaria exposure risk in rural landscapes. The remaining amount of forest cover (accumulated deforestation) and the deforestation timeline were estimated in each site to represent the main parameters of both the frontier malaria hypothesis and an alternate scenario, the deforestation-malaria hypothesis, proposed herein. The maximum frequency of pathogenic sites occurred at the intermediate forest cover level (50% of accumulated deforestation) at two temporal deforestation peaks, e.g., 10 and 35 years after the beginning of the organization of a settlement. The incidence density of infected anophelines in sites where the original forest cover decreased by more than 50% in the first 25 years of settlement development was at least twice as high as the incidence density calculated for the other sites studied (adjusted incidence density ratio = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.38-3.68; p = 0.001). The results of this study support the frontier malaria as a unifying hypothesis for explaining malaria emergence and for designing specific control interventions in the Brazilian Amazon.

Loss of forest cover and host functional diversity increases prevalence of avian malaria parasites in the Atlantic Forest

Host phylogenetic relatedness and ecological similarity are thought to contribute to parasite community assembly and infection rates. However, recent landscape level anthropogenic changes may disrupt host-parasite systems by impacting functional and phylogenetic diversity of host communities. We examined whether changes in host functional and phylogenetic diversity, forest cover, and minimum temperature influence the prevalence, diversity, and distributions of avian haemosporidian parasites (genera Haemoproteus and Plasmodium) across 18 avian communities in the Atlantic Forest. To explore spatial patterns in avian haemosporidian prevalence and taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, we surveyed 2241 individuals belonging to 233 avian species across a deforestation gradient. Mean prevalence and parasite diversity varied considerably across avian communities and parasites responded differently to host attributes and anthropogenic changes. Avian malaria prevalence (termed herein as an infection caused by Plasmodium parasites) was higher in deforested sites, and both Plasmodium prevalence and taxonomic diversity were negatively related to host functional diversity. Increased diversity of avian hosts increased local taxonomic diversity of Plasmodium lineages but decreased phylogenetic diversity of this parasite genus. Temperature and host phylogenetic diversity did not influence prevalence and diversity of haemosporidian parasites. Variation in the diversity of avian host traits that promote parasite encounter and vector exposure (host functional diversity) partially explained the variation in avian malaria prevalence and diversity. Recent anthropogenic landscape transformation (reduced proportion of native forest cover) had a major influence on avian malaria occurrence across the Atlantic Forest. This suggests that, for Plasmodium, host phylogenetic diversity was not a biotic filter to parasite transmission as prevalence was largely explained by host ecological attributes and recent anthropogenic factors. Our results demonstrate that, similar to human malaria and other vector-transmitted pathogens, prevalence of avian malaria parasites will likely increase with deforestation.

A mathematical model for zoonotic transmission of malaria in the Atlantic Forest: Exploring the effects of variations in vector abundance and acrodendrophily

Transmission foci of autochthonous malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax-like parasites have frequently been reported in the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern and Southern Brazil. Evidence suggests that malaria is a zoonosis in these areas as human infections by simian Plasmodium species have been detected, and the main vector of malaria in the Atlantic Forest, Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii, can blood feed on human and simian hosts. In view of the lack of models that seek to predict the dynamics of zoonotic transmission in this part of the Atlantic Forest, the present study proposes a new deterministic mathematical model that includes a transmission compartment for non-human primates and parameters that take into account vector displacement between the upper and lower forest strata. The effects of variations in the abundance and acrodendrophily of An. cruzii on the prevalence of infected humans in the study area and the basic reproduction number (R0) for malaria were analyzed. The model parameters are based on the literature and fitting of the empirical data. Simulations performed with the model indicate that (1) an increase in the abundance of the vector in relation to the total number of blood-seeking mosquitoes leads to an asymptotic increase in both the proportion of infected individuals at steady state and R0; (2) the proportion of infected humans at steady state is higher when displacement of the vector mosquito between the forest strata increases; and (3) in most scenarios, Plasmodium transmission cannot be sustained only between mosquitoes and humans, which implies that non-human primates play an important role in maintaining the transmission cycle. The proposed model contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of malaria transmission in the Atlantic Forest.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in French Guiana: 2005-2019

Aims: This study examines the dynamics of malaria as influenced by meteorological factors in French Guiana from 2005 to 2019. It explores spatial hotspots of malaria transmission and aims to determine the factors associated with variation of hotspots with time. Methods: Data for individual malaria cases came from the surveillance system of the Delocalized Centers for Prevention and Care (CDPS) (n = 17) from 2005–2019. Meteorological data was acquired from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) database. The Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model tested stationarity of the time series, and the impact of meteorological indices (issued from principal component analysis—PCA) on malaria incidence was determined with a general additive model. Hotspot characterization was performed using spatial scan statistics. Results: The current sample includes 7050 eligible Plasmodium vivax (n = 4111) and Plasmodium falciparum (n = 2939) cases from health centers across French Guiana. The first and second PCA-derived meteorological components (maximum/minimum temperature/minimum humidity and maximum humidity, respectively) were significantly negatively correlated with total malaria incidence with a lag of one week and 10 days, respectively. Overall malaria incidence decreased across the time series until 2017 when incidence began to trend upwards. Hotspot characterization revealed a few health centers that exhibited spatial stability across the entire time series: Saint Georges de l’Oyapock and Antecume Pata for P. falciparum, and Saint Georges de l’Oyapock, Antecume Pata, Régina and Camopi for P. vivax. Conclusions: This study highlighted changing malaria incidence in French Guiana and the influences of meteorological factors on transmission. Many health centers showed spatial stability in transmission, albeit not temporal. Knowledge of the areas of high transmission as well as how and why transmission has changed over time can inform strategies to reduce the transmission of malaria in French Guiana. Hotspots should be further investigated to understand other influences on local transmission, which will help to facilitate elimination.

Anthropogenic landscape decreases mosquito biodiversity and drives malaria vector proliferation in the Amazon rainforest

Inter-relationships among mosquito vectors, Plasmodium parasites, human ecology, and biotic and abiotic factors, drive malaria risk. Specifically, rural landscapes shaped by human activities have a great potential to increase the abundance of malaria vectors, putting many vulnerable people at risk. Understanding at which point the abundance of vectors increases in the landscape can help to design policies and interventions for effective and sustainable control. Using a dataset of adult female mosquitoes collected at 79 sites in malaria endemic areas in the Brazilian Amazon, this study aimed to (1) verify the association among forest cover percentage (PLAND), forest edge density (ED), and variation in mosquito diversity; and to (2) test the hypothesis of an association between landscape structure (i.e., PLAND and ED) and Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Root) dominance. Mosquito collections were performed employing human landing catch (HLC) (peridomestic habitat) and Shannon trap combined with HLC (forest fringe habitat). Nyssorhynchus darlingi abundance was used as the response variable in a generalized linear mixed model, and the Shannon diversity index (H') of the Culicidae community, PLAND, and the distance house-water drainage were used as predictors. Three ED categories were also used as random effects. A path analysis was used to understand comparative strengths of direct and indirect relationships among Amazon vegetation classes, Culicidae community, and Ny. darlingi abundance. Our results demonstrate that Ny. darlingi is negatively affected by H´ and PLAND of peridomestic habitat, and that increasing these variables (one-unit value at β0 = 768) leads to a decrease of 226 (P < 0.001) and 533 (P = 0.003) individuals, respectively. At the forest fringe, a similar result was found for H' (β1 = -218; P < 0.001) and PLAND (β1 = -337; P = 0.04). Anthropogenic changes in the Amazon vegetation classes decreased mosquito biodiversity, leading to increased Ny. darlingi abundance. Changes in landscape structure, specifically decreases in PLAND and increases in ED, led to Ny. darlingi becoming the dominant species, increasing malaria risk. Ecological mechanisms involving changes in landscape and mosquito species composition can help to understand changes in the epidemiology of malaria.

Diversity of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) collected in different types of larvitraps in an Amazon rural settlement

Anthropogenic environments provide favorable conditions for some species, which is especially true of mosquitoes that present eclecticism at the moment of choice for the site of oviposition. In the present study, the diversity of mosquitoes was assessed by providing plastic containers, bamboo internodes, and tires in a forest, the forest edge, and peridomicile environments in a rural settlement area. Eighteen sampling points were chosen, delimited by a buffer of 200 m, placed in three environments: forest, forest edge, and peridomicile. In each environment, larvitraps were installed, separated by a minimum distance of 7 m and 1 m from the ground. A total of 10,131 immature mosquitoes of 20 species were collected. The most abundant species was Culex urichii (29.5%), followed by Trichoprosopon digitatum (27.1%), and Cx. (Melanoconion) spp. (10.4%). There was a difference in the composition of immature mosquito populations between larvitraps (p < 0.0005), and the plastic container hosted a greater diversity of species, whereas tires presented a greater abundance of individuals. The forest, forest edge, and peridomicile environments were also different with regard to diversity of immature mosquito populations (p < 0.0010). The forest edge was the environment with the greatest diversity of species, followed by the peridomicile and forest environments. In the forest and peridomicile, plastic container larvitraps had the greatest diversity, whereas the forest edge tire presented the largest number of individuals. Further, tire larvitraps collected the largest number of individuals in all environments. Ten species associated with the bamboo internode and tire were identified. The preference of species for artificial larvitraps, such as the plastic container and tire, even in wild environments was noted. These artificial objects may represent a risk factor for the population living in this region, as all vector species found in the study were present in plastic containers and tires.

The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach

BACKGROUND

Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas.

METHODS

The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t₀ was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit.

RESULTS

Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the end of the rainy season and it was nonlinearly (exponentially) correlated with the fraction of infected mosquitoes. Relationship between the risk of malaria and duration of visit was linear and positively correlated. Relationship between the risk of malaria and the time of arrival in the municipality was dependent on local effects of seasonality.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria is not negligible and can maintain regional circulation of parasites, propagating introductions in areas where malaria has been eliminated.

Resurgence risk for malaria, and the characterization of a recent outbreak in an Amazonian border area between French Guiana and Brazil

BACKGROUND

In 2017, inhabitants along the border between French Guiana and Brazil were affected by a malaria outbreak primarily due to Plasmodium vivax (Pv). While malaria cases have steadily declined between 2005 and 2016 in this Amazonian region, a resurgence was observed in 2017.

METHODS

Two investigations were performed according to different spatial scales and information details: (1) a local study on the French Guiana border, which enabled a thorough investigation of malaria cases treated at a local village health center and the entomological circumstances in the most affected neighborhood, and (2) a regional and cross-border study, which enabled exploration of the regional spatiotemporal epidemic dynamic. Number and location of malaria cases were estimated using French and Brazilian surveillance systems.

RESULTS

On the French Guianese side of the border in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock, the attack rate was 5.5% (n = 4000), reaching 51.4% (n = 175) in one Indigenous neighborhood. Entomological findings suggest a peak of Anopheles darlingi density in August and September. Two female An. darlingi (n = 1104, 0.18%) were found to be Pv-positive during this peak. During the same period, aggregated data from passive surveillance conducted by Brazilian and French Guianese border health centers identified 1566 cases of Pv infection. Temporal distribution during the 2007-2018 period displayed seasonal patterns with a peak in November 2017. Four clusters were identified among epidemic profiles of cross-border area localities. All localities of the first two clusters were Brazilian. The localization of the first cluster suggests an onset of the outbreak in an Indigenous reservation, subsequently expanding to French Indigenous neighborhoods and non-Native communities.

CONCLUSIONS

The current findings demonstrate a potential increase in malaria cases in an area with otherwise declining numbers. This is a transborder region where human mobility and remote populations challenge malaria control programs. This investigation illustrates the importance of international border surveillance and collaboration for malaria control, particularly in Indigenous villages and mobile populations.

Potential distribution of main malaria vector species in the endemic Colombian Pacific region

OBJECTIVE

To assess the existing fundamental niche, potential distribution and degree of niche overlap for the three main Colombian malaria vectors Anopheles albimanus, Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari in the major malaria endemic Pacific region.

METHODS

We used models based on presence records and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, created using the maximum entropy algorithm.

RESULTS

The three vector species occupied heterogeneous environments, and their NDVI values differed. Anopheles albimanus had the largest niche amplitude and was distributed mainly on coastal areas. Environmentally suitable areas for An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari were the dry forest of inter-Andean Valleys in south-western Colombia, as confirmed for An. albimanus during model validation. There was a slight degree of niche overlap between An. darlingi and An. nuneztovari, and the species co-occurred in humid forests, predominantly in riparian zones of the San Juan and Atrato rivers.

CONCLUSION

The information obtained may be used for the implementation of vector control interventions in selected priority areas to reduce malaria risk in this region while optimising resources.

Malaria in Gold Miners in the Guianas and the Amazon: Current Knowledge and Challenges

Purpose of Review

Following Paraguay and Argentina, several countries from the Amazon region aim to eliminate malaria. To achieve this, all key affected and vulnerable populations by malaria, including people working on gold mining sites, must be considered. What is the situation of malaria in these particular settings and what are the challenges? This literature review aims to compile knowledge to answer these questions.

Recent Findings

The contexts in which gold miners operate are very heterogeneous: size and localization of mines, links with crime, administrative status of the mines and of the miners, mobility of the workers or national regulations. The number of malaria cases has been correlated with deforestation (Brazil, Colombia), gold production (Colombia), gold prices (Guyana), or location of the mining region (Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana). The burden of malaria in gold mines differs between territories: significant in Guyana, French Guiana, or Venezuela; lower in Brazil. Although Plasmodiumvivax causes 75% of malaria cases in the Americas, P. falciparum is predominant in several gold mining regions, especially in the Guiana Shield. Because of the remoteness from health facilities, self-medication with under-the-counter antimalarials is frequent. This constitutes a significant risk for the emergence of new P. falciparum parasites resistant to antimalarial drugs.

Summary

Because of the workers’ mobility, addressing malaria transmission in gold mines is essential, not only for miners, but also to prevent the (re-)emergence of malaria. Strategies among these populations should be tailored to the context because of the heterogeneity of situations in different territories. The transnational environment favoring malaria transmission also requires transborder and regional cooperation, where innovative solutions should be considered and evaluated.

Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk

Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. Here, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance.

Mosquito-borne viral diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a review

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne viral infections have in recent years, become a public health threat globally. This review aimed to provide an overview of the ecological and epidemiological profiles of mosquito-borne viral infections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

METHODS

A search of literature was conducted using Google Scholar, PubMed and the WHO website using the following keywords: "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Zaire", "Belgian Congo" and either of the following: "mosquito-borne virus", "arbovirus", "yellow fever", "dengue", "chikungunya", "West Nile", "Rift Valley fever", "O'nyong'nyong", "Zika", "epidemiology", "ecology", "morbidity", "mortality". Published articles in English or French covering a period between 1912 and October 2018 were reviewed.

RESULTS

A total of 37 articles were included in the review. The findings indicate that the burden of mosquito-borne viral infections in DRC is increasing over time and space. The north-western, north-eastern, western and central regions have the highest burden of mosquito-borne viral infections compared to south and eastern highland regions. Yellow fever, chikungunya, dengue, Zika, Rift Valley fever, West Nile and O'nyong'nyong have been reported in the country. These mosquito-borne viruses were found circulating in human, wildlife and domestic animals. Yellow fever and chikungunya outbreaks have been frequently reported. Aedes aegypti and Ae. simpsoni were documented as the main vectors of most of the mosquito-borne viral infections. Heavy rains, human movements, forest encroachment and deforestation were identified as drivers of mosquito-borne viruses occurrence in DRC.

CONCLUSIONS

Mosquito-borne viral infections are becoming common and a serious public health problem in DRC. In the current context of climate change, there is urgent need to improve understanding on ecological and epidemiology of the diseases and strengthen surveillance systems for prompt response to epidemics in DRC.

Evidence for family-level variation of phenotypic traits in response to temperature of Brazilian Nyssorhynchus darlingi

BACKGROUND

Nyssorhynchus darlingi (also known as Anopheles darlingi) is the primary malaria vector in the Amazon River Basin. In Brazil, analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously detected three major population clusters, and a common garden experiment in a laboratory setting revealed significant population variation in life history traits. Increasing temperatures and local level variation can affect life history traits, i.e. adult longevity, that alter vectorial capacity with implications for malaria transmission in Ny. darlingi.

METHODS

We investigated the population structure of Ny. darlingi from 7 localities across Brazil utilizing SNPs and compared them to a comprehensive Ny. darlingi catalog. To test the effects of local level variation on life history traits, we reared F1 progeny from the 7 localities at three constant temperatures (20, 24 and 28 °C), measuring key life history traits (larval development, food-starved adult lifespan, adult size and daily survival).

RESULTS

Using nextRAD genotyping-by-sequencing, 93 of the field-collected Ny. darlingi were genotyped at 33,759 loci. Results revealed three populations (K = 3), congruent with major biomes (Amazonia, Cerrado and Mata Atlântica), with greater FST values between biomes than within. In the life history experiments, increasing temperature reduced larval development time, adult lifespan, and wing length in all localities. The variation of family responses for all traits within four localities of the Amazonia biome was significant (ANOVA, P < 0.05). Individual families within localities revealed a range of responses as temperature increased, for larval development, adult lifespan, wing length and survival time.

CONCLUSIONS

SNP analysis of several Brazilian localities provided results in support of a previous study wherein populations of Ny. darlingi were clustered by three major Brazilian biomes. Our laboratory results of temperature effects demonstrated that population variation in life history traits of Ny. darlingi exists at the local level, supporting previous research demonstrating the high plasticity of this species. Understanding this plasticity and inherent variation between families of Ny. darlingi at the local level should be considered when deploying intervention strategies and may improve the likelihood of successful malaria elimination in South America.

The Role of Ecological Linkage Mechanisms in Plasmodium knowlesi Transmission and Spread

Defining the linkages between landscape change, disease ecology and human health is essential to explain and predict the emergence of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria, a zoonotic parasite residing in Southeast Asian macaques, and transmitted by species of Anopheles mosquitos. Changing patterns of land use throughout Southeast Asia, particularly deforestation, are suggested to be the primary drivers behind the recent spread of this zoonotic parasite in humans. Local ecological changes at the landscape scale appear to be increasing the risk of disease in humans by altering the dynamics of transmission between the parasite and its primary hosts. This paper will focus on the emergence of P. knowlesi in humans in Malaysian Borneo and the ecological linkage mechanisms suggested to be playing an important role.

Minimal genetic differentiation of the malaria vector Nyssorhynchus darlingi associated with forest cover level in Amazonian Brazil

The relationship between deforestation and malaria in Amazonian Brazil is complex, and a deeper understanding of this relationship is required to inform effective control measures in this region. Here, we are particularly interested in characterizing the impact of land use and land cover change on the genetics of the major regional vector of malaria, Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Root). We used nextera-tagmented, Reductively Amplified DNA (nextRAD) genotyping-by-sequencing to genotype 164 Ny. darlingi collected from 16 collection sites with divergent forest cover levels in seven municipalities in four municipality groups that span the state of Amazonas in northwestern Amazonian Brazil: São Gabriel da Cachoeira, Presidente Figueiredo, four municipalities in the area around Cruzeiro do Sul, and Lábrea. Using a dataset of 5,561 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), we investigated the genetic structure of these Ny. darlingi populations with a combination of model- and non-model-based analyses. We identified weak to moderate genetic differentiation among the four municipality groups. There was no evidence for microgeographic genetic structure of Ny. darlingi among forest cover levels within the municipality groups, indicating that there may be gene flow across areas of these municipalities with different degrees of deforestation. Additionally, we conducted an environmental association analysis using two outlier detection methods to determine whether individual SNPs were associated with forest cover level without affecting overall population genetic structure. We identified 14 outlier SNPs, and investigated functions associated with their proximal genes, which could be further characterized in future studies.

Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon is Brazil's greatest natural resource and invaluable to the rest of the world as a buffer against climate change. The recent election of Brazil's president brought disputes over development plans for the region back into the spotlight. Historically, the development model for the Amazon has focused on exploitation of natural resources, resulting in environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. Although considerable attention has focused on the long-term global cost of "losing the Amazon," too little attention has focused on the emergence and reemergence of vector-borne diseases that directly impact the local population, with spillover effects to other neighboring areas. We discuss the impact of Amazon development models on human health, with a focus on vector-borne disease risk. We outline policy actions that could mitigate these negative impacts while creating opportunities for environmentally sensitive economic activities.

Plasmodium infection in Kerteszia cruzii (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Atlantic tropical rain forest, southeastern Brazil

In Southeastern Brazil, Kerteszia cruzii (former Anopheles cruzii), a bromeliad mosquito species, is considered an efficient human Plasmodium spp. vector. In this region, recent studies showed asymptomatic or sub-patent Plasmodium falciparum infection. In areas of the Atlantic coast in Rio de Janeiro, Plasmodium simium infection was recently reported in both human and howler monkey. Considering that (1) few malaria cases are reported each year in areas across the tropical Atlantic rain forest in southeastern Brazil; (2) malaria elimination in Atlantic forest is challenged by circulation of P. falciparum and P. simium in humans; (3) the complexity of malaria epidemiology in this region; and (4) the public health importance of Kerteszia cruzii as a sylvatic vector; the major goal of this study is to evaluate Plasmodium infection in Ke. cruzii. Mosquito sampling collections were conducted in Esteiro do Morro and Sítio Itapuan, in Cananeia municipality, and Tapiraí municipality in Ribeira Valley, southeastern São Paulo state, Brazil. Influence of climate and landscape factors in Plasmodium infection in Ke. cruzii was addressed. Among the 1719 mosquitoes tested, 3 females collected in Sítio Itapuan and three from Tapiraí were found infected with either P. vivax or P. simium. Results of statistical analyses did not demonstrate association between Plasmodium infection in mosquito and the landscape. Mosquito infection was found in two landscape clusters, with Plasmodium detected in forest fringe mosquitoes. This finding shows that Ke. cruzii can facilitate transmission among human and non-human primates. Plasmodium falciparum was not identified in the samples analyzed. Spatiotemporal variation in local malaria incidence, low prevalence of Plasmodium, variations in humidity and temperature can explain the absence of mosquitoes infected with P. falciparum in the study.

Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing

Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation and settlement in the Amazon basin, yet evidence of a deforestation-driven increase in malaria remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause of this ambiguity is that deforestation and malaria influence each other in bidirectional causal relationships-deforestation increases malaria through ecological mechanisms and malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms-and that the strength of these relationships depends on the stage of land use transformation. We test these hypotheses with a large geospatial dataset encompassing 795 municipalities across 13 y (2003 to 2015) and show deforestation has a strong positive effect on malaria incidence. Our results suggest a 10% increase in deforestation leads to a 3.3% increase in malaria incidence (∼9,980 additional cases associated with 1,567 additional km² lost in 2008, the study midpoint, Amazon-wide). The effect is larger in the interior and absent in outer Amazonian states where little forest remains. However, this strong effect is only detectable after controlling for a feedback of malaria burden on forest loss, whereby increased malaria burden significantly reduces forest clearing, possibly mediated by human behavior or economic development. We estimate a 1% increase in malaria incidence results in a 1.4% decrease in forest area cleared (∼219 fewer km² cleared associated with 3,024 additional cases in 2008). This bidirectional socioecological feedback between deforestation and malaria, which attenuates as land use intensifies, illustrates the intimate ties between environmental change and human health.

Comparison of malaria incidence rates and socioeconomic-environmental factors between the states of Acre and Rondônia: a spatio-temporal modelling study

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a threat to public health, but Plasmodium vivax malaria is most prevalent in Latin America, where the incidence rate has been increasing since 2016, particularly in Venezuela and Brazil. The Brazilian Amazon reported 193,000 cases in 2017, which were mostly confirmed as P. vivax (~ 90%). Herein, the relationships among malaria incidence rates and the proportion of accumulated deforestation were contrasted using data from the states of Acre and Rondônia in the south-western Brazilian Amazon. The main purpose is to test the hypothesis that the observed difference in incidence rates is associated with the proportion of accumulated deforestation.

METHODS

An ecological study using spatial and temporal models for mapping and modelling malaria risk was performed. The municipalities of Acre and Rondônia were the spatial units of analysis, whereas month and year were the temporal units. The number of reported malaria cases from 2009 until 2015 were used to calculate the incidence rate per 1000 people at risk. Accumulated deforestation was calculated using publicly available satellite images. Geographically weighted regression was applied to provide a local model of the spatial heterogeneity of incidence rates. Time-series dynamic regression was applied to test the correlation of incidence rates and accumulated deforestation, adjusted by climate and socioeconomic factors.

RESULTS

The malaria incidence rate declined in Rondônia but remained stable in Acre. There was a high and positive correlation between the decline in malaria and higher proportions of accumulated deforestation in Rondônia. Geographically weighted regression showed a complex relationship. As deforestation increased, malaria incidence also increased in Acre, while as deforestation increased, malaria incidence decreased in Rondônia. Time-series dynamic regression showed a positive association between malaria incidence and precipitation and accumulated deforestation, whereas the association was negative with the human development index in the westernmost areas of Acre.

CONCLUSION

Landscape modification caused by accumulated deforestation is an important driver of malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. However, this relationship is not linearly correlated because it depends on the overall proportion of the land covered by forest. For regions that are partially degraded, forest cover becomes a less representative component in the landscape, causing the abovementioned non-linear relationship. In such a scenario, accumulated deforestation can lead to a decline in malaria incidence.

The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease

More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.

Disarmament is the New War, Gold is the New Opium, and Ecohealth is the Historic Victim

In Colombia, the convergence of drug trafficking, illegal armed groups, and gold production and trade threatens peace and stability in the post-FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) era, as had the narcotics trade previously. Armed groups and criminal organizations have increased and consolidated their influence over illegal mining and may be diverting US$5 billion from Colombia's annual economy. As of 2014, 46% of the total area (78 939 ha) exploited for alluvial gold was in the Afro-Colombian Pacific States, in which unregulated mining was the main driver of deforestation. The informal job market represents 49% of the workforce and absent other economic alternatives, this workforce of ex-guerrillas, organized crime groups and corrupt officials will sustain the black markets that permeate gold mining. Human health consequences of unregulated gold mining are largely unrecognized, but include the spread of malaria and other insect-borne diseases, and we suggest diseases such as babesiosis.

Genetic diversity of Nyssorhynchus (Anopheles) darlingi related to biting behavior in western Amazon

Background

In the Amazon Basin, Nyssorhynchus (Anopheles) darlingi is the most aggressive and effective malaria vector. In endemic areas, behavioral aspects of anopheline vectors such as host preference, biting time and resting location post blood meal have a key impact on malaria transmission dynamics and vector control interventions. Nyssorhynchus darlingi presents a range of feeding and resting behaviors throughout its broad distribution.

Methods

To investigate the genetic diversity related to biting behavior, we collected host-seeking Ny. darlingi in two settlement types in Acre, Brazil: Granada (~ 20-year-old, more established, better access by road, few malaria cases) and Remansinho (~ 8-year-old, active logging, poor road access, high numbers malaria cases). Mosquitoes were classified by the location of collection (indoors or outdoors) and time (dusk or dawn).

Results

Genome-wide SNPs, used to assess the degree of genetic divergence and population structure, identified non-random distributions of individuals in the PCA for both location and time analyses. Although genetic diversity related to behavior was confirmed by non-model-based analyses and F_ST values, model-based STRUCTURE detected considerable admixture of these populations.

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first study to detect genetic markers associated with biting behavior in Ny. darlingi. Additional ecological and genomic studies may help to understand the genetic basis of mosquito behavior and address appropriate surveillance and vector control.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3498-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.