Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change

Uneven changes in air and crown temperatures associated with snowpack changes affect the phenology of overwintering cereals

Time series analysis of overwintering cereals in snowy areas has revealed several phenological patterns associated with climate changes in winter. Herein, to investigate the recent effect of climatic variations on overwintering cereals, we investigated the phenology over multiple decades at three snowy region sites with an air temperature (Tair) increase trend of 0.48-1.09 °C/decade. Our findings were as follows: heading trends differed within the same cultivar at different sites; phenology was promoted with increasing temperatures in cooler regions and decreasing snow duration in regions with heavy snow; crown temperature (Tcrown) was a more direct determinant than Tair in phenology estimation model in regions with heavy snow. A thermal gap of more than a few degrees Celsius between Tair and Tcrown, owing to the insulation effect of snowpack, affected the phenology of overwintering cereals. A shorter snow cover period promoted phenology in locations with temperatures >0 °C. Subsequently, we found that when the thermal gap was >0 °C of the growing temperature range, Tcrown directly helped determine the phenology of overwintering cereals, and irrespective of the warming trend, the periodic inflow of cold air into the northern mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and associated snow cover changes dominated Tcrown, resulting in annual phenological anomalies with a range of fluctuations of approximately 1 month. The trend of increasing Tair during spring in northern Japan is consistent with the global trend, with a pronounced trend of advancing phenology reaching >4 days/decade in a typical cooler location experiencing snowmelt in March.

Climate change and deer in boreal and temperate regions: From physiology to population dynamics and species distributions

Climate change causes far-reaching disruption in nature, where tolerance thresholds already have been exceeded for some plants and animals. In the short term, deer may respond to climate through individual physiological and behavioral responses. Over time, individual responses can aggregate to the population level and ultimately lead to evolutionary adaptations. We systematically reviewed the literature (published 2000-2022) to summarize the effect of temperature, rainfall, snow, combined measures (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), and extreme events, on deer species inhabiting boreal and temperate forests in terms of their physiology, spatial use, and population dynamics. We targeted deer species that inhabit relevant biomes in North America, Europe, and Asia: moose, roe deer, wapiti, red deer, sika deer, fallow deer, white-tailed deer, mule deer, caribou, and reindeer. Our review (218 papers) shows that many deer populations will likely benefit in part from warmer winters, but hotter and drier summers may exceed their physiological tolerances. We found support for deer expressing both morphological, physiological, and behavioral plasticity in response to climate variability. For example, some deer species can limit the effects of harsh weather conditions by modifying habitat use and daily activity patterns, while the physiological responses of female deer can lead to long-lasting effects on population dynamics. We identified 20 patterns, among which some illustrate antagonistic pathways, suggesting that detrimental effects will cancel out some of the benefits of climate change. Our findings highlight the influence of local variables (e.g., population density and predation) on how deer will respond to climatic conditions. We identified several knowledge gaps, such as studies regarding the potential impact on these animals of extreme weather events, snow type, and wetter autumns. The patterns we have identified in this literature review should help managers understand how populations of deer may be affected by regionally projected futures regarding temperature, rainfall, and snow.

A GWAS study highlights significant associations between a series of indels in a FLOWERING LOCUS T gene promoter and flowering time in white lupin (Lupinus albus L.)

BACKGROUND

White lupin (Lupinus albus L.) is a high-protein Old World grain legume with remarkable food and feed production interest. It is sown in autumn or early spring, depending on the local agroclimatic conditions. This study aimed to identify allelic variants associated with vernalization responsiveness, in order to improve our knowledge of legume flowering regulatory pathways and develop molecular selection tools for the desired phenology as required for current breeding and adaptation to the changing climate.

RESULTS

Some 120 white lupin accessions originating from a wide range of environments of Europe, Africa, and Asia were phenotyped under field conditions in three environments with different intensities of vernalization, namely, a Mediterranean and a subcontinental climate sites of Italy under autumn sowing, and a suboceanic climate site of France under spring sowing. Two hundred sixty-two individual genotypes extracted from them were phenotyped in a greenhouse under long-day photoperiod without vernalization. Phenology data, and marker data generated by Diversity Arrays Technology sequencing (DArT-seq) and by PCR-based screening targeting published quantitative trait loci (QTLs) from linkage map and newly identified insertion/deletion polymorphisms in the promoter region of the FLOWERING LOCUS T homolog, LalbFTc1 gene (Lalb_Chr14g0364281), were subjected to a genome-wide association study (GWAS). Population structure followed differences in phenology and isolation by distance pattern. The GWAS highlighted numerous loci significantly associated with flowering time, including four LalbFTc1 gene promoter deletions: 2388 bp and 2126 bp deletions at the 5' end, a 264 bp deletion in the middle and a 28 bp deletion at the 3' end of the promoter. Besides LalbFTc1 deletions, this set contained DArT-seq markers that matched previously published major QTLs in chromosomes Lalb_Chr02, Lalb_Chr13 and Lalb_Chr16, and newly discovered QTLs in other chromosomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlighted novel QTLs for flowering time and validated those already published, thereby providing novel evidence on the convergence of FTc1 gene functional evolution into the vernalization pathway in Old World lupin species. Moreover, this research provided the set of loci specific for extreme phenotypes (the earliest or the latest) awaiting further implementation in marker-assisted selection for spring- or winter sowing.

Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities

Lake ice is an important socio-economic resource that is threatened by climate change. The cover and duration of lake ice are expected to decline as air temperatures warm in the coming decades, disrupting a previously reliable source of income for many activities dependent on lake ice. The economic consequences of climate-induced lake ice loss remain unexplored, creating a significant research gap. The purpose of this study was to quantify the monetary spending associated with lake ice and how climate change may impact that value. Using a series of General Circulation Models (GCMs), greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and models for lake ice cover, we predicted changes in lake ice by the end of the 21st century for the Northern Hemisphere. We also synthesized examples of spending associated with lake ice activities and discussed the potential implications expected with declining ice cover. We found that lake ice will decrease in area by 44,000-177,000 km2 and shorten in duration by 13-43 days by 2100. Using 31 examples of revenue from lake ice, we found that lake ice generates spending of over USD 2.04 billion to local communities and economies. We also found that countries predicted to experience the greatest ice loss by the end of the century are those that currently have the largest GDP, highest greenhouse gas emissions, and are most dependent on freshwater withdrawal. Our findings confirm predicted losses in lake ice that are expected because of climate change and quantify some of the potential consequences for local communities. Here we highlight lake ice as another casualty of human-caused climate change that will have profound socio-economic implications.

Twilight length alters growth and flowering time in Arabidopsis via LHY/CCA1

Decades of research have uncovered how plants respond to two environmental variables that change across latitudes and over seasons: photoperiod and temperature. However, a third such variable, twilight length, has so far gone unstudied. Here, using controlled growth setups, we show that the duration of twilight affects growth and flowering time via the LHY/CCA1 clock genes in the model plant Arabidopsis. Using a series of progressively truncated no-twilight photoperiods, we also found that plants are more sensitive to twilight length compared to equivalent changes in solely photoperiods. Transcriptome and proteome analyses showed that twilight length affects reactive oxygen species metabolism, photosynthesis, and carbon metabolism. Genetic analyses suggested a twilight sensing pathway from the photoreceptors PHY E, PHY B, PHY D, and CRY2 through LHY/CCA1 to flowering modulation through the GI-FT pathway. Overall, our findings call for more nuanced models of day-length perception in plants and posit that twilight is an important determinant of plant growth and development.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Conversion of boreal forests to agricultural systems: soil microbial responses along a land-conversion chronosequence

BACKGROUND

Boreal regions are warming at more than double the global average, creating opportunities for the northward expansion of agriculture. Expanding agricultural production in these regions will involve the conversion of boreal forests to agricultural fields, with cumulative impacts on soil microbial communities and associated biogeochemical cycling processes. Understanding the magnitude or rate of change that will occur with these biological processes will provide information that will enable these regions to be developed in a more sustainable manner, including managing carbon and nitrogen losses. This study, based in the southern boreal region of Canada where agricultural expansion has been occurring for decades, used a paired forest-adjacent agricultural field approach to quantify how soil microbial communities and functions were altered at three different stages post-conversion (< 10, > 10 and < 50, and > 50 years). Soil microbial functional capacity was assessed by quantitative PCR of genes associated with carbon (C), nitrogen, and phosphorous (P) cycling; microbial taxonomic diversity and community structure was assessed by amplicon sequencing.

RESULTS

Fungal alpha diversity did not change, but communities shifted from Basidiomycota to Ascomycota dominant within the first decade. Bacterial alpha diversity increased, with Gemmatimonadota groups generally increasing and Actinomycetota groups generally decreasing in agricultural soils. These altered communities led to altered functional capacity. Functional genes associated with nitrification and low molecular weight C cycling potential increased after conversion, while those associated with organic P mineralization potential decreased. Stable increases in most N cycling functions occurred within the first decade, but C cycling functions were still changing 50 years post conversion.

CONCLUSIONS

Microbial communities underwent a rapid shift in the first decade, followed by several decades of slower transition until stabilizing 50 years post conversion. Understanding how the microbial communities respond at different stages post-conversion improves our ability to predict C and N losses from emerging boreal agricultural systems, and provides insight into how best to manage these soils in a way that is sustainable at the local level and within a global context.

Wilderness areas under threat from global redistribution of agriculture

Agriculture expansion is already the primary cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss globally1,2; yet, to meet the demands of growing human populations, production is expected to have to double by 2050.3 The challenge of achieving expansion without further detriment to the environment and biodiversity is huge and potentially compounded by climate change, which may necessitate shifting agriculture zones poleward to regions with more suitable climates,4 threatening species or areas of conservation priority.5,6,7 However, the possible future overlap between agricultural suitability and wilderness areas, increasingly recognized for significant biodiversity, cultural, and climate regulation values, has not yet been examined. Here, using high-resolution climate data, we model global present and future climate suitability for 1,708 crop varieties. We project, over the next 40 years, that 2.7 million km2 of land within wilderness will become newly suitable for agriculture, equivalent to 7% of the total wilderness area outside Antarctica. The increase in potentially cultivable land in wilderness areas is particularly acute at higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere, where 76.3% of newly suitable land is currently wilderness, equivalent to 10.2% of the total wilderness area. Our results highlight an important and previously unidentified possible consequence of the disproportionate warming known to be occurring in high northern latitudes. Because we find that, globally, 72.0% of currently cultivable land is predicted to experience a net loss in total crop diversity, agricultural expansion is a major emerging threat to wilderness. Without protection, the vital integrity of these valuable areas could be irreversibly lost.

Is winter coming? Impact of the changing climate on plant responses to cold temperature

Climate change is causing alterations in annual temperature regimes worldwide. Important aspects of this include the reduction of winter chilling temperatures as well as the occurrence of unpredicted frosts, both significantly affecting plant growth and yields. Recent studies advanced the knowledge of the mechanisms underlying cold responses and tolerance in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. However, how these cold-responsive pathways will readjust to ongoing seasonal temperature variation caused by global warming remains an open question. In this review, we highlight the plant developmental programmes that depend on cold temperature. We focus on the molecular mechanisms that plants have evolved to adjust their development and stress responses upon exposure to cold. Covering both genetic and epigenetic aspects, we present the latest insights into how alternative splicing, noncoding RNAs and the formation of biomolecular condensates play key roles in the regulation of cold responses. We conclude by commenting on attractive targets to accelerate the breeding of increased cold tolerance, bringing up biotechnological tools that might assist in overcoming current limitations. Our aim is to guide the reflection on the current agricultural challenges imposed by a changing climate and to provide useful information for improving plant resilience to unpredictable cold regimes.

Genome editing for healthy crops: traits, tools and impacts

Crop cultivars in commercial use have often been selected because they show high levels of resistance to pathogens. However, widespread cultivation of these crops for many years in the environments favorable to a pathogen requires durable forms of resistance to maintain "healthy crops". Breeding of new varieties tolerant/resistant to biotic stresses by incorporating genetic components related to durable resistance, developing new breeding methods and new active molecules, and improving the Integrated Pest Management strategies have been of great value, but their effectiveness is being challenged by the newly emerging diseases and the rapid change of pathogens due to climatic changes. Genome editing has provided new tools and methods to characterize defense-related genes in crops and improve crop resilience to disease pathogens providing improved food security and future sustainable agricultural systems. In this review, we discuss the principal traits, tools and impacts of utilizing genome editing techniques for achieving of durable resilience and a "healthy plants" concept.

Projected changes in atmospheric moisture transport contributions associated with climate warming in the North Atlantic

Global warming and associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are expected to alter the hydrological cycle, including the intensity and position of moisture sources. This study presents predicted changes for the middle and end of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for two important extratropical moisture sources: the North Atlantic Ocean (NATL) and Mediterranean Sea (MED). Changes over the Iberian Peninsula-considered as a strategic moisture sink for its location-are also studied in detail. By the end of the century, moisture from the NATL will increase precipitation over eastern North America in winter and autumn and on the British Isles in winter. Moisture from the MED will increase precipitation over the southern and western portions of the Mediterranean continental area. Precipitation associated with the MED moisture source will decrease mainly over eastern Europe, while that associated with the NATL will decrease over western Europe and Africa. Precipitation recycling on the Iberian Peninsula will increase in all seasons except summer for mid-century. Climate change, as simulated by CESM2 thus modifies atmospheric moisture transport, affecting regional hydrological cycles.

Identification of KASP markers and candidate genes for drought tolerance in wheat using 90K SNP array genotyping of near-isogenic lines targeting a 4BS quantitative trait locus

KEY MESSAGE

This study identified a novel SNP and developed a highly efficient KASP marker for drought tolerance in wheat by genotyping NILs targeting a major QTL for drought tolerance using an SNP array and validation with commercial varieties. Common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is an important winter crop worldwide and a typical allopolyploid with a large and complex genome. With global warming, the environmental volatility and incidence of drought in wheat-producing areas will increase. Molecular markers for drought tolerance are urgently needed to enhance drought tolerance breeding. Here, we genotyped four near-isogenic line (NIL) pairs targeting a major QTL qDSI.4B.1 on wheat chromosome arm 4BS for drought tolerance using the 90K SNP Illumina iSelect array and discovered a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) (Excalibur_c100336_106) with consistent genotype-phenotype associations among all four NIL pairs and their parents. Then, we converted the SNP into a Kompetitive Allele-Specific PCR (KASP) marker, with an accuracy of 100% for the four NIL pairs and their parents and as high as 81.8% for the 44 tested wheat lines with known phenotypes collected from Australia and China. Two genes near this SNP were suggested as candidate genes for drought tolerance in wheat after checking the Chinese Spring reference genome annotation version 1.1. One gene, TraesCS4B02G085300, encodes an F-box protein reportedly related to the ABA network, a main pathway for drought tolerance, and another gene, TraesCS4B02G085400, encodes a calcineurin-like metallophos-phoesterase transmembrane protein, which participates in Ca2+-dependent phosphorylation regulatory system. Based on this work and previous research on pre-harvest sprouting, we established a quick and efficient general SQV-based approach for KASP marker development, integrating genotyping by SNP arrays (S) using NILs targeting major QTL for a specific trait (Q) and validating them with commercial varieties (V). The identified SNP and developed KASP marker could be applied to marker-assisted selection in drought breeding, and further study of the candidate genes may improve our understanding of drought tolerance in wheat.

Accumulation Pattern and Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements in Permafrost-Affected Agricultural Soils in Northeast China

The accumulation of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in agricultural soils is of particular concern in China, while its status, ecological risks, and human health hazards have been little studied in the permafrost areas of Northeast China. In this study, 75 agricultural soil samples (0-20 cm) were collected from the Arctic Village, Mo'he City, in the northernmost part of China. The average concentration (mean ± standard deviation) of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn were 12.11 ± 3.66 mg/kg, 0.11 ± 0.08 mg/kg, 52.50 ± 8.83 mg/kg, 12.08 ± 5.12 mg/kg, 0.05 ± 0.02 mg/kg, 14.90 ± 5.35 mg/kg, 22.38 ± 3.04 mg/kg, and 68.07 ± 22.71 mg/kg, respectively. Correlation analysis, cluster analysis, and principal component analysis indicated that As, Cu, Ni, and Zn likely originated from geogenic processes, Hg and Pb from long-range atmospheric transport, Cd from planting activities, and Cr from Holocene alluvium. The geo-accumulation index and enrichment factor showed that As, Cd, Hg, and Zn are enriched in soils. The Nemerow pollution index showed that 66.67%, 24%, and 1.33% of soil samples were in slight, moderate, and heavy pollution levels, respectively, with Hg being the most important element affecting the comprehensive pollution index. The potential ecological risk index showed that 48.00% and 1.33% of soil samples were in the moderate ecological risk and high potential ecological risk levels, respectively. The non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic human health risk index for adults and children were both less than 1, which was within the acceptable range. This study revealed the accumulation pattern of PTEs in agricultural soils of permafrost regions and provided a scientific basis for research on ecological security and human health.

Navigating Agricultural Expansion in Harsh Conditions in Russia: Balancing Development with Insect Protection in the Era of Pesticides

As the world's population continues to increase, ensuring food security becomes a major problem. This often leads to the expansion of agricultural production, even in harsh conditions and becomes a key problem for many countries, including Russia. However, such expansion may entail certain costs, including the potential loss of insect populations, which are vital for ecological balance and agricultural productivity. The development of fallow lands in these regions is necessary to increase food production and increase food security; it is important to balance this with protection from harmful insects and sustainable farming methods. Research into the effects of insecticides on insects is an ongoing challenge, and new, sustainable farming methods are needed to ensure that protection from harmful insects and sustainable development can coexist. This article discusses the use of pesticides to protect the well-being of mankind, the problems of studying the effects of pesticides on insects and the vulnerability of insects to pesticides in regions with harsh conditions. It also discusses successful methods of sustainable agriculture and the importance of the legal framework governing the use of pesticides. The article emphasises the importance of balanced development with insect protection to ensure the sustainability of agricultural expansion in harsh conditions.

Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal a strong north-south asymmetry in tree cover change, coupled with a range shrinkage of tree cover distributions. We found no evidence for tree cover expansion in the northern biome, while tree cover increased markedly in the core of the biome range. By contrast, tree cover declined along the southern biome boundary, where losses were related largely to wildfires and timber logging. We show that these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines.

Climate change fostered rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire during 600-800 AD

During the 7-9th century, the Tibetan Empire constituted a superpower between the Tang Empire and Abbasid Caliphate: one that played significant roles in geopolitics in Asia during the Early Medieval Period. The factors which led to the rise and rapid decline of this powerful Empire, the only united historical regime on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), remain unclear. Sub-annual scale precipitation and decadal-scale temperature records of the central TP are presented, indicating that the height of this Empire coincided with a two-century long interval of uncharacteristically warm and humid climate. The ameliorated climate enabled the expansion of arable land and increased agricultural production. The close relationship between the precipitation records and historical events implied that the Empire implemented flexible strategies to tackle the effects of climate changes. This has implications for agricultural production in alpine regions including the TP, in the context of current global warming.

A Modeling Framework to Frame a Biological Invasion: Impatiens glandulifera in North America

Biological invasions are a major component of global environmental change with severe ecological and economic consequences. Since eradicating biological invaders is costly and even futile in many cases, predicting the areas under risk to take preventive measures is crucial. Impatiens glandulifera is a very aggressive and prolific invasive species and has been expanding its invasive range all across the Northern hemisphere, primarily in Europe. Although it is currently spread in the east and west of North America (in Canada and USA), studies on its fate under climate change are quite limited compared to the vast literature in Europe. Hybrid models, which integrate multiple modeling approaches, are promising tools for making projections to identify the areas under invasion risk. We developed a hybrid and spatially explicit framework by utilizing MaxEnt, one of the most preferred species distribution modeling (SDM) methods, and we developed an agent-based model (ABM) with the statistical language R. We projected the I. glandulifera invasion in North America, for the 2020-2050 period, under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Our results showed a predominant northward progression of the invasive range alongside an aggressive expansion in both currently invaded areas and interior regions. Our projections will provide valuable insights for risk assessment before the potentially irreversible outcomes emerge, considering the severity of the current state of the invasion in Europe.

Environmental Filtering Drives Fungal Phyllosphere Community in Regional Agricultural Landscapes

To adapt to climate change, several agricultural strategies are currently being explored, including a shift in land use areas. Regional differences in microbiome composition and associated phytopathogens need to be considered. However, most empirical studies on differences in the crop microbiome focused on soil communities, with insufficient attention to the phyllosphere. In this study, we focused on wheat ears in three regions in northeastern Germany (Magdeburger Börde (MBB), Müncheberger Sander (MSA), Uckermärkisches Hügelland (UKH)) with different yield potentials, soil, and climatic conditions. To gain insight into the fungal community at different sites, we used a metabarcoding approach (ITS-NGS). Further, we examined the diversity and abundance of Fusarium and Alternaria using culture-dependent and culture-independent techniques. For each region, the prevalence of different orders rich in phytopathogenic fungi was determined: Sporidiobolales in MBB, Capnodiales and Pleosporales in MSA, and Hypocreales in UKH were identified as taxonomic biomarkers. Additionally, F. graminearum was found predominantly in UKH, whereas F. poae was more abundant in the other two regions. Environmental filters seem to be strong drivers of these differences, but we also discuss the possible effects of dispersal and interaction filters. Our results can guide shifting cultivation regions to be selected in the future concerning their phytopathogenic infection potential.

Enhanced trends in spectral greening and climate anomalies across Europe

Europe witnessed a strong increase in climate variability and enhanced climate-induced extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods. Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental system functionalities and fuelled climate change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite observations detected a positive spectral greening trend-most likely as a response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and global warming. But which are the engines behind such shifts in surface reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental control mechanisms? This article compares long-term environmental variables (1948-2021) to recent vegetation index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2001-2021) and presents regional trends in climate variability and vegetation response across Europe. Results show that positive trends in vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation dynamics are strongly coupled to increased temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter and the early growing season in the northern latitudes. Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such a strong amplification in climate variability across Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation cover during extreme events.

Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change

Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers' decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes >30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes <30°N-S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.

Challenges and advances in measuring sap flow in agriculture and agroforestry: A review with focus on nuclear magnetic resonance

Sap flow measurement is one of the most effective methods for quantifying plant water use.A better understanding of sap flow dynamics can aid in more efficient water and crop management, particularly under unpredictable rainfall patterns and water scarcity resulting from climate change. In addition to detecting infected plants, sap flow measurement helps select plant species that could better cope with hotter and drier conditions. There exist multiple methods to measure sap flow including heat balance, dyes and radiolabeled tracers. Heat sensor-based techniques are the most popular and commercially available to study plant hydraulics, even though most of them are invasive and associated with multiple kinds of errors. Heat-based methods are prone to errors due to misalignment of probes and wounding, despite all the advances in this technology. Among existing methods for measuring sap flow, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is an appropriate non-invasive approach. However, there are challenges associated with applications of NMR to measure sap flow in trees or field crops, such as producing homogeneous magnetic field, bulkiness and poor portable nature of the instruments, and operational complexity. Nonetheless, various advances have been recently made that allow the manufacture of portable NMR tools for measuring sap flow in plants. The basic concept of the portal NMR tool is based on an external magnetic field to measure the sap flow and hence advances in magnet types and magnet arrangements (e.g., C-type, U-type, and Halbach magnets) are critical components of NMR-based sap flow measuring tools. Developing a non-invasive, portable and inexpensive NMR tool that can be easily used under field conditions would significantly improve our ability to monitor vegetation responses to environmental change.

A Flashforward Look into Solutions for Fruit and Vegetable Production

One of the most important challenges facing current and future generations is how climate change and continuous population growth adversely affect food security. To address this, the food system needs a complete transformation where more is produced in non-optimal and space-limited areas while reducing negative environmental impacts. Fruits and vegetables, essential for human health, are high-value-added crops, which are grown in both greenhouses and open field environments. Here, we review potential practices to reduce the impact of climate variation and ecosystem damages on fruit and vegetable crop yield, as well as highlight current bottlenecks for indoor and outdoor agrosystems. To obtain sustainability, high-tech greenhouses are increasingly important and biotechnological means are becoming instrumental in designing the crops of tomorrow. We discuss key traits that need to be studied to improve agrosystem sustainability and fruit yield.

Functional phenomics for improved climate resilience in Nordic agriculture

The five Nordic countries span the most northern region for field cultivation in the world. This presents challenges per se, with short growing seasons, long days, and a need for frost tolerance. Climate change has additionally increased risks for micro-droughts and water logging, as well as pathogens and pests expanding northwards. Thus, Nordic agriculture demands crops that are adapted to the specific Nordic growth conditions and future climate scenarios. A focus on crop varieties and traits important to Nordic agriculture, including the unique resource of nutritious wild crops, can meet these needs. In fact, with a future longer growing season due to climate change, the region could contribute proportionally more to global agricultural production. This also applies to other northern regions, including the Arctic. To address current growth conditions, mitigate impacts of climate change, and meet market demands, the adaptive capacity of crops that both perform well in northern latitudes and are more climate resilient has to be increased, and better crop management systems need to be built. This requires functional phenomics approaches that integrate versatile high-throughput phenotyping, physiology, and bioinformatics. This review stresses key target traits, the opportunities of latitudinal studies, and infrastructure needs for phenotyping to support Nordic agriculture.

Climate change opportunities reduce farmers' risk perception: Extension of the value-belief-norm theory in the context of Finnish agriculture

Global agriculture faces severe challenges due to climate change. For boreal agriculture, climate change might also bring opportunities as the growing season lengthens, if the risks of climate change are managed properly. Agricultural production is a source of greenhouse gases, while agricultural land has also a great possibility to mitigate climate change as a carbon sink. Farmers are the central group for implementing these actions. Their views and beliefs contribute to their corresponding pro-environmental agricultural behavior. This research is based on the theory of value-belief-norm (VBN) as a predictive model of pro-environmental agricultural behavior. We extend the theory by studying how opportunities caused by climate change affect pro-environmental behavior in agriculture and present differences between farmer groups and experiment with the longitudinal possibilities of the theoretical model. Based on the structured survey responses from 4,401 farmers in Finland in 2018 and 2000 responses in 2020, we found that all the elements of VBN theory did help to predict intention for climate change mitigation, among which felt possibility to perform mitigation practices was the strongest predictor while risk perception was rather an unimportant one. Furthermore, opportunities caused directly or indirectly by climate change have an effect on Finnish farmer's implementation of mitigation practices. Therefore, future efforts in agricultural research and policy in Finland should concentrate to bring forth concrete farm-level mitigation practices with proven environmental benefits and the direct and indirect opportunities should be given more attention.

Twenty-first century bioarchaeology: Taking stock and moving forward

This article presents outcomes from a Workshop entitled "Bioarchaeology: Taking Stock and Moving Forward," which was held at Arizona State University (ASU) on March 6-8, 2020. Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the School of Human Evolution and Social Change (ASU), and the Center for Bioarchaeological Research (CBR, ASU), the Workshop's overall goal was to explore reasons why research proposals submitted by bioarchaeologists, both graduate students and established scholars, fared disproportionately poorly within recent NSF Anthropology Program competitions and to offer advice for increasing success. Therefore, this Workshop comprised 43 international scholars and four advanced graduate students with a history of successful grant acquisition, primarily from the United States. Ultimately, we focused on two related aims: (1) best practices for improving research designs and training and (2) evaluating topics of contemporary significance that reverberate through history and beyond as promising trajectories for bioarchaeological research. Among the former were contextual grounding, research question/hypothesis generation, statistical procedures appropriate for small samples and mixed qualitative/quantitative data, the salience of Bayesian methods, and training program content. Topical foci included ethics, social inequality, identity (including intersectionality), climate change, migration, violence, epidemic disease, adaptability/plasticity, the osteological paradox, and the developmental origins of health and disease. Given the profound changes required globally to address decolonization in the 21st century, this concern also entered many formal and informal discussions.

Different Temperature and UV Patterns Modulate Berry Maturation and Volatile Compounds Accumulation in Vitis sp

Volatile compounds (VCs) in grapevine berries play an important role in wine quality; however, such compounds and vine development can be sensitive to environmental conditions. Due to this sensitivity, changes in temperature patterns due to global warming are likely to further impact grape production and berry composition. The aim of this study was to determine the possible effects of different growing-degree day accumulation patterns on berry ripening and composition at harvest. An experimental field was conducted using Vitis sp. L'Acadie blanc, in Nova Scotia, Canada. Using on-the-row mini-greenhouses, moderate temperature increase and reduced ultraviolet (UV) exposure were triggered in grapevines during pre-veraison (inflorescence to the beginning of berry softening), post-veraison (berry softening to full maturity), and whole season (inflorescence to full maturity), while controls were left without treatment. Free and bound VCs were extracted from berries sampled at three different phenological stages between veraison and maturity before analysis by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Berries from grapevines exposed to higher temperatures during early berry development (pre-veraison and whole) accumulated significantly higher concentrations of benzene derivatives 2-phenylethanol and benzyl alcohol at harvest, but lower concentrations of hydroxy-methoxy-substituted volatile phenols, terpenes, and C13-norisoprenoids than the control berries. These results illustrate the importance of different environmental interactions in berry composition and suggest that temperature could potentially modulate phenylpropanoid and mevalonate metabolism in developing berries. This study provides insights into the relationships between abiotic conditions and secondary metabolism in grapevine and highlights the significance of early developmental stages on berry quality at harvest.

Groundwater in Crisis? Addressing Groundwater Challenges in Michigan (USA) as a Template for the Great Lakes

Groundwater historically has been a critical but understudied, underfunded, and underappreciated natural resource, although recent challenges associated with both groundwater quantity and quality have raised its profile. This is particularly true in the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL) region, where the rich abundance of surface water results in the perception of an unlimited water supply but limited attention on groundwater resources. As a consequence, groundwater management recommendations in the LGL have been severely constrained by our lack of information. To address this information gap, a virtual summit was held in June 2021 that included invited participants from local, state, and federal government entities, universities, non-governmental organizations, and private firms in the region. Both technical (e.g., hydrologists, geologists, ecologists) and policy experts were included, and participants were assigned to an agricultural, urban, or coastal wetland breakout group in advance, based on their expertise. The overall goals of this groundwater summit were fourfold: (1) inventory the key (grand) challenges facing groundwater in Michigan; (2) identify the knowledge gaps and scientific needs, as well as policy recommendations, associated with these challenges; (3) construct a set of conceptual models that elucidate these challenges; and (4) develop a list of (tractable) next steps that can be taken to address these challenges. Absent this type of information, the sustainability of this critical resource is imperiled.

Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

Pest categorisation of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense Tropical Race 4

The EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense Tropical Race 4 (Foc TR4), an ascomycete fungus causing Fusarium wilt (Panama disease) on Musa spp. Foc TR4 is pathogenic to the commercial banana varieties including those of the 'Cavendish' group and is considered as the most destructive among Foc haplotypes. Uncertainty exists on the host range of Foc TR4, since it has not been demonstrated whether it can infect plant species other than Musa spp., which were previously reported as hosts of other Foc races. Foc TR4 is morphologically and physiologically identical to other representatives of the Fusarium oxysporum Species Complex (FOSC), but all Foc TR4 isolates belong to a single clonal lineage within the vegetative compatibility groups 01213-01216. Several PCR protocols are described in the literature, but their specificity has been questioned as they may generate false positives. The pathogen is not included in EU Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072 and is not reported as present in the EU territory. Several potential entry pathways and means of spread were identified, including host plants for planting other than vitroplants, fresh fruits and leaves of host plants, soil and other substrates originating in infested third countries. Host availability and climate suitability occurring in some areas of the EU are favourable for the establishment of Foc TR4. Being a soil-borne pathogen, eradication of Foc TR4 once it enters a new area is very difficult. Therefore, effective quarantine measures are essential in pathogen-free areas. Although not specifically targeting against Foc TR4, phytosanitary measures are currently available to prevent the introduction of the pathogen into the EU. Considering that banana-growing EU countries account for over 12% of the EU banana supply, it is expected that the economic impact of Foc TR4 on the European banana production areas would be devastating. Foc TR4 satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this pathogen to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.

Northern Food Systems in Transition: The Role of the Emerging Agri-Food Industry in the Northwest Territories (Canada) Food System

This paper reports the findings of an ethnographic study that involved working with local organizations, food advocates, and communities to develop strategies for expanding the nascent Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada agri-food industry. The NWT represents a unique case study in that the fledging agri-food industry has been recognized for its promise in contributing to the core goals of the transitioning NWT food system. The study is guided by two research questions: (1) How is the promise of the emerging NWT agri-food industry framed within the context of the broader food system? (2) Given this framing of the NWT agri-food industry, how can it contribute to the sustainability of the NWT food system and to the goals of food security, poverty reduction, nutrition, and economic development? Grounded in a food systems approach, we used a correlative, evolutionary SWOT analysis to profile the nascent NWT agri-food industry within the context of the existing NWT food system. Through further thematic analysis, we identify and describe two dominant narratives (agri-food industry business case narrative and agri-food industry implications narrative) and key themes within the narratives based on an adapted food systems framework. The agri-food business case narrative highlights discourse articulating the business or commercial viability for a local agri-food value chain to function, evolve, and expand. The agri-food industry implications narrative envisions the ways in which the emerging NWT agri-food industry may interact within the existing NWT food system, highlighting potential environmental, social, cultural, and political implications of an expanding commercial-based agri-food value chain. Within the two narratives, certain subcomponents of the NWT agri-food system appear to be more prevalent, including climate, soil, and ecosystems, policy/regulations/governance, socio-cultural norms, knowledge, inputs, finance, production, and consumption. We make policy and practice recommendations for co-designing an agri-food industry that serves the multiple goals of the NWT food system. As an exploratory, descriptive-structural analysis the study provides a critical empirical basis for future in-depth, fully integrated synthesis of the complex social, cultural, economic, political, and ecological dynamics shaping Northern food systems in transition.

Climate Change and Coffee Quality: Systematic Review on the Effects of Environmental and Management Variation on Secondary Metabolites and Sensory Attributes of Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora

Climate change is impacting crop performance and agricultural systems around the world with implications for farmers and consumers. We carried out a systematic review to synthesize evidence regarding the effects of environmental factors associated with climate change and management conditions associated with climate adaptation on the crop quality of a culturally-relevant perennial crop, coffee (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora). Seventy-three articles were identified that addressed the study's research question including 42 articles on environmental factors, 20 articles on management conditions, and 11 articles on both. While variation was found between studies, findings highlight that coffee quality is vulnerable to changes in light exposure, altitude, water stress, temperature, carbon dioxide, and nutrient management. Both increases as well as decreases were found in secondary metabolites and sensory attributes that determine coffee quality in response to shifts in environmental and management conditions. The most consistent evidence identified through this systematic review includes the following two trends: (1) increased altitude is associated with improved sensory attributes of coffee and; (2) increased light exposure is associated with decreased sensory attributes of coffee. Research gaps were found regarding the effects of shifts in carbon dioxide, water stress, and temperature on the directionality (increase, decrease, or non-linear) of coffee quality and how this varies with location, elevation, and management conditions. This systematic review further identified the following research needs: (1) long-term studies that examine the interactive effects of multiple environmental factors and management conditions on coffee quality; (2) studies that examine the interaction between sensory attributes and secondary metabolites that determine coffee quality and; (3) studies on the feasibility of various climate-adaptation strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change on coffee quality. Evidence-based innovations are needed to mitigate climate impacts on coffee quality toward enhanced sustainability and resilience of the coffee sector from farm to cup.

R. Patiranage D, Johansen K, Schmöckel SM, Bertero D, Oakey H, Colque-Little C, Afzal I, Raubach S, Miller N, Streich J, Amby DB, Emrani N, Warmington M, Mousa MAA, Wu D, Jacobson D, Andreasen C, Jung C, Murphy K, Bazile D, Tester M. Quinoa Phenotyping Methodologies: An International Consensus

Quinoa is a crop originating in the Andes but grown more widely and with the genetic potential for significant further expansion. Due to the phenotypic plasticity of quinoa, varieties need to be assessed across years and multiple locations. To improve comparability among field trials across the globe and to facilitate collaborations, components of the trials need to be kept consistent, including the type and methods of data collected. Here, an internationally open-access framework for phenotyping a wide range of quinoa features is proposed to facilitate the systematic agronomic, physiological and genetic characterization of quinoa for crop adaptation and improvement. Mature plant phenotyping is a central aspect of this paper, including detailed descriptions and the provision of phenotyping cards to facilitate consistency in data collection. High-throughput methods for multi-temporal phenotyping based on remote sensing technologies are described. Tools for higher-throughput post-harvest phenotyping of seeds are presented. A guideline for approaching quinoa field trials including the collection of environmental data and designing layouts with statistical robustness is suggested. To move towards developing resources for quinoa in line with major cereal crops, a database was created. The Quinoa Germinate Platform will serve as a central repository of data for quinoa researchers globally.

Regime shift tipping point in hare population collapse associated with climatic and agricultural change during the very early 20th century

Animal populations at northern latitudes may have cyclical dynamics that are degraded by climate change leading to trophic cascade. Hare populations at more southerly latitudes are characterized by dramatic declines in abundance associated with agricultural intensification. We focus on the impact of historical climatic and agricultural change on a mid-latitude population of mountain hares, Lepus timidus hibernicus. Using game bag records from multiple sites throughout Ireland, the hare population index exhibited a distinct regime shift. Contrary to expectations, there was a dynamical structure typical of northern latitude hare populations from 1853 to 1908, during which numbers were stable but cyclic with a periodicity of 8 years. This regime was replaced by dynamics more typical of southern latitude hare populations from 1909 to 1970, in which cycles were lost and numbers declined dramatically. Destabilization of the autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) led to the collapse of similar cycles in the hare population, coincident with the onset of agricultural intensification (a shift from small-to-large farms) in the first half of the 20th century. Similar, but more recent regime shifts have been observed in Arctic ecosystems and attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The present study suggests such shifts may have occurred at lower latitudes more than a century ago during the very early 20th century. It seems likely that similar tipping points in the population collapse of other farmland species may have occurred similarly early but went undocumented. As northern systems are increasingly impacted by climate change and probable expansion of agriculture, the interaction of these processes is likely to disrupt the pulsed flow of resources from cyclic populations impacting ecosystem function.

Expansion of Agriculture in Northern Cold-Climate Regions: A Cross-Sectoral Perspective on Opportunities and Challenges

Agriculture in the boreal and Arctic regions is perceived as marginal, low intensity and inadequate to satisfy the needs of local communities, but another perspective is that northern agriculture has untapped potential to increase the local supply of food and even contribute to the global food system. Policies across northern jurisdictions target the expansion and intensification of agriculture, contextualized for the diverse social settings and market foci in the north. However, the rapid pace of climate change means that traditional methods of adapting cropping systems and developing infrastructure and regulations for this region cannot keep up with climate change impacts. Moreover, the anticipated conversion of northern cold-climate natural lands to agriculture risks a loss of up to 76% of the carbon stored in vegetation and soils, leading to further environmental impacts. The sustainable development of northern agriculture requires local solutions supported by locally relevant policies. There is an obvious need for the rapid development of a transdisciplinary, cross-jurisdictional, long-term knowledge development, and dissemination program to best serve food needs and an agricultural economy in the boreal and Arctic regions while minimizing the risks to global climate, northern ecosystems and communities.

Quantification of the Impact of Temperature, CO2, and Rainfall Changes on Swedish Annual Crops Production Using the APSIM Model

Ongoing climate change is already affecting crop production patterns worldwide. Our aim was to investigate how increasing temperature and CO2 as well as changes in precipitation could affect potential yields for different historical pedoclimatic conditions at high latitudes (i.e., &gt;55°). The APSIM crop model was used to simulate the productivity of four annual crops (barley, forage maize, oats, and spring wheat) over five sites in Sweden ranging between 55 and 64°N. A first set of simulations was run using site-specific daily weather data acquired between 1980 and 2005. A second set of simulations was then run using incremental changes in precipitation, temperature and CO2 levels, corresponding to a range of potential future climate scenarios. All simulation sets were compared in terms of production and risk of failure. Projected future trends showed that barley and oats will reach a maximum increase in yield with a 1°C increase in temperature compared to the 1980–2005 baseline. The optimum temperature for spring wheat was similar, except at the northernmost site (63.8°N), where the highest yield was obtained with a 4°C increase in temperature. Forage maize showed best performances for temperature increases of 2–3°C in all locations, except for the northernmost site, where the highest simulated yield was reached with a 5°C increase. Changes in temperatures and CO2 were the main factors explaining the changes in productivity, with ~89% of variance explained, whereas changes in precipitation explained ~11%. At the northernmost site, forage maize, oats and spring wheat showed decreasing risk of crop failure with increasing temperatures. The results of this modeling exercise suggest that the cultivation of annual crops in Sweden should, to some degree, benefit from the expected increase of temperature in the coming decades, provided that little to no water stress affects their growth and development. These results might be relevant to agriculture studies in regions of similar latitudes, especially the Nordic countries, and support the general assumption that climate change should have a positive impact on crop production at high latitudes.

ANEMI3: An updated tool for global change analysis

The ANEMI model is an integrated assessment model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. The model is based on the principles of system dynamics simulation to analyze changes in the Earth system using feedback processes. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change, and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change, carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation. Here the third iteration of the model–ANEMI3 is described, along with the methods used for parameter estimation and model testing. The main differences between ANEMI3 and previous versions include: (i) implementation of the energy-economy system based on the principles of system dynamics simulation; (ii) incorporation of water supply as an additional sector in the global economy that parallels the production of energy; (iii) inclusion of climate change effects on land yield and potentially arable land for food production, and (iv) addition of nitrogen and phosphorus based nutrient cycles as indicators of global water quality, which affect the development of surface water supplies. The model is intended for analyzing long-term global feedbacks which drive global change. Because of this, there are limitations related to the spatial scale that is used. However, the model’s simplicity can be considered a strength, as it allows for the driving feedbacks to be more easily identified. The model in its current form allows for a variety of scenarios to be created to address global issues such as climate change from an integrated perspective, or to examine the change in one model sector on Earth system behaviour. The endogenous structure of the model allows for global change to be driven entirely by model structure rather than exogenous inputs. The new additions to the ANEMI3 model are found to capture long term trends associated with global change, while allowing for the development of water supplies to be represented using an integrated approach considering global economy and surface water quality.

Implications of Zoonoses From Hunting and Use of Wildlife in North American Arctic and Boreal Biomes: Pandemic Potential, Monitoring, and Mitigation

The COVID-19 pandemic has re-focused attention on mechanisms that lead to zoonotic disease spillover and spread. Commercial wildlife trade, and associated markets, are recognized mechanisms for zoonotic disease emergence, resulting in a growing global conversation around reducing human disease risks from spillover associated with hunting, trade, and consumption of wild animals. These discussions are especially relevant to people who rely on harvesting wildlife to meet nutritional, and cultural needs, including those in Arctic and boreal regions. Global policies around wildlife use and trade can impact food sovereignty and security, especially of Indigenous Peoples. We reviewed known zoonotic pathogens and current risks of transmission from wildlife (including fish) to humans in North American Arctic and boreal biomes, and evaluated the epidemic and pandemic potential of these zoonoses. We discuss future concerns, and consider monitoring and mitigation measures in these changing socio-ecological systems. While multiple zoonotic pathogens circulate in these systems, risks to humans are mostly limited to individual illness or local community outbreaks. These regions are relatively remote, subject to very cold temperatures, have relatively low wildlife, domestic animal, and pathogen diversity, and in many cases low density, including of humans. Hence, favorable conditions for emergence of novel diseases or major amplification of a spillover event are currently not present. The greatest risk to northern communities from pathogens of pandemic potential is via introduction with humans visiting from other areas. However, Arctic and boreal ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes through climate warming, habitat encroachment, and development; all of which can change host and pathogen relationships, thereby affecting the probability of the emergence of new (and re-emergence of old) zoonoses. Indigenous leadership and engagement in disease monitoring, prevention and response, is vital from the outset, and would increase the success of such efforts, as well as ensure the protection of Indigenous rights as outlined in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Partnering with northern communities and including Indigenous Knowledge Systems would improve the timeliness, and likelihood, of detecting emerging zoonotic risks, and contextualize risk assessments to the unique human-wildlife relationships present in northern biomes.

Boreal Agriculture Cannot Be Sustainable Without Food Sovereignty

Food sovereignty encompasses the right of humans to have access to, and to produce, healthy and culturally appropriate food. Food sovereignty exists within the “social” pillar of sustainability and sustainable food production. Over time, and as a result of colonialism and neo-liberal food regimes, Indigenous food system patterns in boreal regions have been disrupted. Imports make local food production economically infeasible. The intersection of food sovereignty and international trade is understudied. Food insecurity cycles are likely to perpetuate without deliberate action and government intervention. Policies that facilitate local access, and ownership, of agriculture and food processing facilities may foster food sovereignty. Indigenous community governance, and agricultural practices, are critical to restoring environmental and social sustainability.

The undetected loss of aged carbon from boreal mineral soils

The boreal forest is among the largest terrestrial biomes on earth, storing more carbon (C) than the atmosphere. Due to rapid climatic warming and enhanced human development, the boreal region may have begun transitioning from a net C sink to a net source. This raises serious concern that old biogenic soil C can be re-introduced into the modern C cycle in near future. Combining bio-decay experiments, mixing models and the Keeling plot method, we discovered a distinct old pre-bomb organic carbon fraction with high biodegradation rate. In total, 34 ± 12% of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC) in podzols, one of the dominating boreal soil types, consisted of aged (~ 1000 year) labile C. The omission of this aged (i.e., Δ14C depleted) WEOC fraction in earlier studies is due to the co-occurrence with Δ14C enriched modern C formed following 1950s nuclear bomb testing masking its existence. High lability of aged soil WEOC and masking effects of modern Δ14C enriched C suggests that the risk for mobilization and re-introduction of this ancient C pool into the modern C cycle has gone undetected. Our findings have important implications for earth systems models in terms of climate-carbon feedbacks and the future C balance of the boreal forest.

Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence

The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.

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Risk results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems.

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Climate change will impact the livestock sector throughout the food supply chain⁠—from farm production to human consumption.

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Key hazards relate to climate change trends but also, and importantly, to climate variability and climate extremes.

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Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems.

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Adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures.

Opportunities and trade-offs for expanding agriculture in Canada’s North: an ecosystem service perspective

Climate change will create warmer temperatures, greater precipitation, and longer growing seasons in northern latitudes making agriculture increasingly possible in boreal regions. To assess the potential of any such expansion, this paper provides a first-order approximation of how much land could become suitable for four staple crops (corn, potato, soy, and wheat) in Canada by 2080. In addition, we estimate how the environmental trade-offs of northern agricultural expansion will impact critical ecosystem services. Primarily, we evaluate how the regulatory ecosystem services of carbon storage and sequestration and the habitat services supporting biodiversity would be traded for the provisioning services of food production. Here we show that under climate change projected by Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, ∼1.85 million km2 of land may become suitable for farming in Canada’s North, which, if utilized, would lead to the release of ∼15 gigatonnes of carbon if all forests and wetlands are cleared and plowed. These land-use changes would also have profound implications for Indigenous sovereignty and the governance of protected and conserved areas in Canada. These results highlight that research is urgently needed so that stakeholders can become aware of the scope of potential economic opportunities, cultural issues, and environmental trade-offs required for agricultural sustainability in Canada.