Functional evidence on the involvement of the MADS-box gene MdDAM4 in bud dormancy regulation in apple

Over the course of the year, temperate trees experience extremes in temperature and day length. In order to protect themselves from frost damage in winter, they enter a dormant state with no visible growth where all leaves are shed and buds are dormant. Also the young floral tissues need to withstand harsh winter conditions, as temperature fruit trees like apple develop their flower buds in the previous year of fruit development. So far, the genetic control of induction and release of dormancy is not fully understood. However, the transcription factor family of DORMANCY-Associated MADS-box (DAM) genes plays a major role in the control of winter dormancy. One of these genes is MdDAM4. This gene is expressed in the early phase of bud dormancy, but little is known about its function. Six transgenic apple lines were produced to study the function of MdDAM4 in apple. For plant transformation, the binary plasmid vector p9oN-35s-MdDAM4 was used that contains the coding sequence of MdDAM4 driven by the 35S promoter. Transgenicity of the lines was proven by PCR and southern hybridization. Based on siRNA sequencing and phenotypic observations, it was concluded that line M2024 overexpresses MdDAM4 whereas the gene is silenced in all other lines. Phenotyping of the transgenic lines provided evidence that the overexpression of MdDAM4 leads to an earlier induction and a later release of dormancy. Silencing this gene had exactly the opposite effects and thereby led to an increased duration of the vegetation period. Expression experiments revealed genes that were either potentially repressed or activated by MdDAM4. Among the potentially suppressed genes were several homologs of the cytokinin oxidase 5 (CKX5), five LOX homologs, and several expansins, which may indicate a link between MdDAM4 and the control of leaf senescence. Among the potentially activated genes is MdDAM1, which is in line with observed expression patterns during winter dormancy. MdDAM2, which shows little expression during endodormancy also appears to be activated by MdDAM4. Overall, this study provides experimental evidence with transgenic apple trees for MdDAM4 being an important regulator of the onset of bud dormancy in apple.

Winter and spring frost events delay leaf-out, hamper growth and increase mortality in European beech seedlings, with weaker effects of subsequent frosts

The persistence of plant populations depends crucially on successful regeneration. Yet, little is known about the effects of consecutive winter and spring frost events on the regeneration stage of trees from different seed sources, although this will partly determine the success of climate warming-driven poleward range shifts. In a common garden experiment with European beech (Fagus sylvatica) seedlings from winter 2015/2016 to autumn 2017, we studied how simulated successive spring and winter frost events affect leaf-out dates, growth performance, and survival rates of 1- to 2-year-old seedlings from provenances differing in climate at origin. We further investigated the combined effects of successive frost events. The first spring frost after germination led to a mortality rate up to 75%, resulting in reduced seedling numbers but better frost tolerance of the survivors, as reflected in a weaker impact of the following winter frost event in the survivors compared to the non-acclimated control. Final plant height was most strongly reduced by the spring frost in the second year. The winter frost event delayed leaf-out by up to 40 days, leading to severe growth impairment in 2017. Our results indicate partly successful frost acclimation and/or the selection of frost-hardier individuals, because the negative growth effects of consecutive frost events did not add up after exposure to more than one event. Both mechanisms may help to increase the frost tolerance of beech offspring. Nevertheless, mortality after the first spring frost was high, and frost exposure generally caused growth reductions. Thus, achieving higher frost tolerance may not be sufficient for beech seedlings to overcome frost-induced reductions in competitive strength caused by winter frost damage and delayed leaf enfolding.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

Insights into flowering mechanisms in apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) amidst climate change: An exploration of genetic and epigenetic factors

Apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) holds a prominent position among global temperate fruit crops, with flowering playing a crucial role in both production and breeding. This review delves into the intricate mechanisms governing apple flowering amidst the backdrop of climate change, acknowledging the profound influence of external and internal factors on biennial bearing, flower bud quality, and ultimately, fruit quality. Notably, the challenge faced in major apple production regions is not an inadequacy of flowers but an excess, leading to compromised fruit quality necessitating thinning practices. Climate change exacerbates these challenges, rendering apple trees more susceptible to crop failure due to unusual weather events, such as reduced winter snowfall, early spring cold weather, and hailstorms during flowering and fruit setting. Altered climatic conditions, exemplified by increased spring warming coupled with sub-freezing temperatures, negatively impact developing flower buds and decrease overall crop production. Furthermore, changing winter conditions affect chilling accumulation, disrupting flower development and synchronicity. Although the physiological perception of apple flowering has been reviewed in the past, the genetic, epigenetic, and multi-omics regulatory mechanisms governing floral induction and flowering are still rarely discussed in the case of apple flowering. This article comprehensively reviews the latest literature encompassing all aspects of apple flowering, aiming to broaden our understanding and address flowering challenges while also laying a solid foundation for future research in developing cultivars that are ideally adapted to climate change.

Do rice growth and yield respond similarly to abrupt and gradual increase in atmospheric CO2?

Crops have been well studied at abruptly elevated CO2 (e[CO2]). In fact, atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising gradually, but its ecological effect is little known. Thus, rice growth and yield were investigated under gradual e[CO2] (GE) and abrupt e[CO2] (AE) using open-top chambers. Gradual e[CO2] involved an ambient CO2 (a[CO2]) + 40 μmol mol-1 per year in 2016 until a[CO2] + 200 μmol mol-1 in 2020, while AE maintained a[CO2] + 200 μmol mol-1 from 2016 to 2020. We found that steady-state photosynthetic rates responded similarly and increased significantly under GE and AE, however, photosynthetic induction time in dynamic photosynthesis was reduced by AE. Gradual e[CO2] had little effect on biomass before the grain filling stage, while AE significantly stimulated biomass because of the stronger tillering ability and faster photosynthetic induction rate. Neither e[CO2] increased biomass at maturity, however, a significant increase in panicle density was observed under AE. Surprisingly, rice yield was not promoted by both e[CO2], possibly resulting from the reduced carbon assimilation caused by accelerated phenology from grain filling to maturity. These results promote a new understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect with small and slow increases in CO2 concentration, closer to what happens in nature. This may partly challenge the classic view of elevated CO2 fertilization effects from AE.

Poleward shifts in the maximum of spring phenological responsiveness of Ginkgo biloba to temperature in China

Global warming is advancing the timing of spring leaf-out in temperate and boreal plants, affecting biological interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. However, spatial variation in spring phenological responsiveness to climate change within species remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated variation in the responsiveness of spring phenology to temperature (RSP; days to leaf-out at a given temperature) in 2754 Ginkgo biloba twigs of trees distributed across subtropical and temperate regions in China from 24°N to 44°N. We found a nonlinear effect of mean annual temperature on spatial variation in RSP, with the highest response rate at c. 12°C and lower response rates at warmer or colder temperatures due to declines in winter chilling accumulation. We then predicted the spatial maxima in RSP under current and future climate scenarios, and found that trees are currently most responsive in central China, which corresponds to the species' main distribution area. Under a high-emission scenario, we predict a 4-degree latitude shift in the responsiveness maximum toward higher latitudes over the rest of the century. The identification of the nonlinear responsiveness of spring phenology to climate gradients and the spatial shifts in phenological responsiveness expected under climate change represent new mechanistic insights that can inform models of spring phenology and ecosystem functioning.

Tree responses and temperature requirements in two central Italy phenological gardens

Plants have always been able to adapt to climate change by reacting through various responses, mainly at the phenological level. The aim of this work is to investigate the behavior of specific tree species located in two phenological gardens in central Italy in relation to the temperature increases recorded in recent years. Specifically, four main phenological phases, BBCH_11, BBCH_19, BBCH_91, and BBCH_65, were monitored during a 14-year time period. The data of the weeks corresponding to the first appearance of each phenological phase and the respective heat accumulations for each species were cross-referenced with the meteorological data recorded by the stations in the two considered areas. Based on average temperature, calculated over reference periods, the species were divided by creating "warm" year groups and "cold" year groups so as to better highlight any differences in the behavior of the same species. In addition, a strong correlation was shown between the maximum temperatures in February and the advances of phenological phases BBCH_11 and BBCH_65. Most of the tree species have shown strong adaptation to climate warming, changing the period of occurrence of the phases themselves.

Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients

AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.

Geographical patterns and determinants in plant reproductive phenology duration

Biodiversity is and always has been an important issue in ecological research. Biodiversity can reflect niche partitioning among species at several spatial and temporal scales and is generally highest in the tropics. One theory to explain it is that low-latitude tropical ecosystems are dominated by species that are generally only distributed over a narrow area. This principle is known as Rapoport's rule. One previously unconsidered extension of Rapoport's rule may be reproductive phenology, where variation in flowering and fruiting length may reflect a temporal range. Herein, we collected reproductive phenology data for more than 20,000 species covering almost all angiosperm species in China. We used a random forest model to quantify the relative role of seven environmental factors on the duration of reproductive phenology. Our results showed that the duration of reproductive phenology decreased with latitude, although there was no obvious change across longitudes. Latitude explained more of the variation in the duration of flowering and fruiting phases in woody plants than in herbaceous plants. Mean annual temperature and the length of the growing season strongly influenced the phenology of herbaceous plants, and average winter temperature and temperature seasonality were important drivers of woody plant phenology. Our result suggests the flowering period of woody plants is sensitive to temperature seasonality, while it does not influence herbaceous plants. By extending Rapoport's rule to consider the distribution of species in time as well as space, we have provided a novel insight into the mechanisms of maintaining high levels of diversity in low-latitude forests.

Global warming is increasing the discrepancy between green (actual) and thermal (potential) seasons of temperate trees

Over the past decades, global warming has led to a lengthening of the time window during which temperatures remain favorable for carbon assimilation and tree growth, resulting in a lengthening of the green season. The extent to which forest green seasons have tracked the lengthening of this favorable period under climate warming, however, has not been quantified to date. Here, we used remote sensing data and long-term ground observations of leaf-out and coloration for six dominant species of European trees at 1773 sites, for a total of 6060 species-site combinations, during 1980-2016 and found that actual green season extensions (GS: 3.1 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ) lag four times behind extensions of the potential thermal season (TS: 12.6 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ). Similar but less pronounced differences were obtained using satellite-derived vegetation phenology observations, that is, a lengthening of 4.4 ± 0.13 and 7.5 ± 0.13 day decade^-1 for GS and TS, respectively. This difference was mainly driven by the larger advance in the onset of the thermal season compared to the actual advance of leaf-out dates (spring mismatch: 7.2 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ), but to a less extent caused by a phenological mismatch between GS and TS in autumn (2.4 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ). Our results showed that forest trees do not linearly track the new thermal window extension, indicating more complex interactions between winter and spring temperatures and photoperiod and a justification of demonstrating that using more sophisticated models that include the influence of chilling and photoperiod is needed to accurately predict spring phenological changes under warmer climate. They urge caution if such mechanisms are omitted to predict, for example, how vegetative health and growth, species distribution and crop yields will change in the future.

Small RNA and Degradome Sequencing in Floral Bud Reveal Roles of miRNAs in Dormancy Release of Chimonanthus praecox

Chimonanthus praecox (wintersweet) is highly valued ornamentally and economically. Floral bud dormancy is an important biological characteristic in the life cycle of wintersweet, and a certain period of chilling accumulation is necessary for breaking floral bud dormancy. Understanding the mechanism of floral bud dormancy release is essential for developing measures against the effects of global warming. miRNAs play important roles in low-temperature regulation of flower bud dormancy through mechanisms that are unclear. In this study, small RNA and degradome sequencing were performed for wintersweet floral buds in dormancy and break stages for the first time. Small RNA sequencing identified 862 known and 402 novel miRNAs; 23 differentially expressed miRNAs (10 known and 13 novel) were screened via comparative analysis of breaking and other dormant floral bud samples. Degradome sequencing identified 1707 target genes of 21 differentially expressed miRNAs. The annotations of the predicted target genes showed that these miRNAs were mainly involved in the regulation of phytohormone metabolism and signal transduction, epigenetic modification, transcription factors, amino acid metabolism, and stress response, etc., during the dormancy release of wintersweet floral buds. These data provide an important foundation for further research on the mechanism of floral bud dormancy in wintersweet.

Projected Effects of Climate Change on Species Range of Pantala flavescens, a Wandering Glider Dragonfly

Dragonflies are sensitive to climate change due to their special habitat in aquatic and terrestrial environments, especially Pantala flavescens, which have extraordinary migratory abilities in response to climate change on spatio-temporal scales. At present, there are major gaps in the documentation of insects and the effects of climatic changes on the habitat and species it supports. In this study, we model the global distribution of a wandering glider dragonfly, P. flavescens, and detected the important environmental factors shaping its range, as well as habitat shifts under historical and future warming scenarios. The results showed a global map of species ranges of P. flavescens currently, including southern North America, most of South America, south-central Africa, most of Europe, South, East and Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania, in total, ca. 6581.667 × 10⁴ km². BIO5 (the max temperature of warmest month) and BIO13 (the precipitation of wettest month) greatly explained its species ranges. The historic refugia were identified around the Great Lakes in the north-central United States. Future warming will increase the total area of suitable habitat and shift the type of suitable habitat compared to the current distribution. The habitat suitability of P. flavescens decreased with elevation, global warming forced it to expand to higher elevations, and the habitat suitability of P. flavescens around the equator increased with global warming. Overall, our study provides a global dynamic pattern of suitable habitats for P. flavescens from the perspective of climate change, and provides a useful reference for biodiversity research and biological conservation.

Phenology and morphology of the invasive legume Lupinus polyphyllus along a latitudinal gradient in Europe

Plant phenology, i. e. the timing of life cycle events, is related to individual fitness and species distribution ranges. Temperature is one of the most important drivers of plant phenology together with day length. The adaptation of their phenology may be important for the success of invasive plant species. The present study aims at understanding how the performance and the phenology of the invasive legume Lupinus polyphyllus vary with latitude. We sampled data across a >2000 km latitudinal gradient from Central to Northern Europe. We quantified variation in phenology of flowering and fruiting of L. polyphyllus using >1600 digital photos of inflorescences from 220 individual plants observed weekly at 22 sites. The day of the year at which different phenological phases were reached, increased 1.3–1.8 days per degree latitude, whereas the growing degree days (gdd) required for these phenological phases decreased 5–16 gdd per degree latitude. However, this difference disappeared, when the day length of each day included in the calculation of gdd was considered. The day of the year of the earliest and the latest climatic zone to reach any of the three studied phenological phases differed by 23–30 days and temperature requirements to reach these stages differed between 62 and 236 gdd. Probably, the invasion of this species will further increase in the northern part of Europe over the next decades due to climate warming. For invasive species control, our results suggest that in countries with a large latitudinal extent, the mowing date should shift by ca. one week per 500 km at sites with similar elevations.

Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Spring and Autumn Phenology in Sessile Oak (Quercus petraea) Near the Eastern Limit of Its Distribution Range

Due to the visible and predictable influence of climate change on species’ spatial distributions, the conservation of marginal peripheral populations has become topical in forestry research. This study aimed to assess the spring (budburst, leaf development, and flowering) and autumn (leaf senescence) phenology of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a species widespread across European forests close to its ranges’ eastern limit. This study was performed in Romania between spring 2017 and 2020, and it included a transect with three low-altitude populations, a reference population from its inner range, and a sessile oak comparative trial. The temperature was recorded to relate changes to phenophase dynamics. We identified small variations between the reference and peripheral populations associated with climatic conditions. In the peripheral populations, budburst timing had day-of-year (DOY) values <100, suggesting that sessile oak may be more susceptible to late spring frost. Furthermore, we found spring phenophase timing to be more constant than autumn senescence. Moreover, budburst in the sessile oak comparative trial had obvious longitudinal tendencies, with an east to west delay of 0.5–1.4 days per degree. In addition, budburst timing influenced leaf development and flowering, but not the onset of leaf senescence. These findings improve our understanding of the relationship between spring and autumn phenophase dynamics and enhance conservation strategies regarding sessile oak genetic resources.

Exploring the Optimal Feature Combination of Tree Species Classification by Fusing Multi-Feature and Multi-Temporal Sentinel-2 Data in Changbai Mountain

Tree species classification is crucial for forest resource investigation and management. Remote sensing images can provide monitoring information on the spatial distribution of tree species and multi-feature fusion can improve the classification accuracy of tree species. However, different features will play their own unique role. Therefore, considering various related factors about the growth of tree species such as spectrum information, texture structure, vegetation phenology, and topography environment, we fused multi-feature and multi-temporal Sentinel-2 data, which combines spectral features with three other types of features. We combined different feature-combinations with the random forest method to classify Changbai Mountain tree species. Results indicate that topographic features participate in tree species classification with higher accuracy and more efficiency than phenological features and texture features, and the elevation factor possesses the highest importance through the Mean Decrease in Gini (MDG) method. Finally, we estimated the area of the target tree species and analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics by overlay analysis of the Classification 3 result and topographic features (elevation, slope, and aspect). Our findings emphasize that topographic factors have a great influence on the distribution of forest resources and provide the basis for forest resource investigation.

Warming-induced increase in carbon uptake is linked to earlier spring phenology in temperate and boreal forests

Under global warming, advances in spring phenology due to rising temperatures have been widely reported. However, the physiological mechanisms underlying the advancement in spring phenology still remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effect of temperature during the previous growing season on spring phenology of current year based on the start of season extracted from multiple long-term and large-scale phenological datasets between 1951 and 2018. Our findings indicate that warmer temperatures during previous growing season are linked to earlier spring phenology of current year in temperate and boreal forests. Correspondingly, we observed an earlier spring phenology with the increase in photosynthesis of the previous growing season. These findings suggest that the observed warming-induced earlier spring phenology is driven by increased photosynthetic carbon assimilation in the previous growing season. Therefore, the vital role of warming-induced changes in carbon assimilation should be considered to accurately project spring phenology and carbon cycling in forest ecosystems under future climate warming.

The mechanisms underlying plant phenological shifts are debated. Here, based on phenological observations and ecosystem flux and climate data, Gu and colleagues provide evidence that warming-enhanced photosynthesis in a growing season contributes to earlier spring phenology in the following year in temperate and boreal forests.

Long-Term Effects of Climate Variability on Seed Rain Dynamics of Four Fagaceae Sympatric Species in Qinling Mountains, China

Seed rain, as the beginning of species dispersal, is a key process for forest structure and regeneration. In this study, the seed rain of four Fagaceae sympatric plant species (Castaneamollissima, Quercus aliena, Quercus variabilis, and Quercus serrata) in the Qinling Mountains were monitored for ten consecutive years, and the responses of seed rain dynamics of the four species to major climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) were analyzed. We found there were significant differences in the seed rain dynamics between C. mollissima of Castanea and the other three species of Quercus in the initial period and end period and the duration of the whole seed rain process among the 10 years. This could indicate to some extent that there was no concentrated flowering and fruiting among different plants of different genera, and they could well avoid fierce competition for similar resources and coexist in the same region. This may also be a reproductive strategy for plants. Seed rain dynamics of different plant species had different sensitivities to climate factors (temperature and precipitation), which indicated that mainly because of their different responses to climate factors, they could well avoid fierce competition for similar climate resources. In addition, the differences in seed rain dropping dynamics could reduce consumption in large numbers by seed predators, thereby promoting their own dispersal and regeneration. All of the above contribute to their better coexistence in the same domain.

A cross-scale approach to unravel the molecular basis of plant phenology in temperate and tropical climates

Plants have evolved to time their leafing, flowering and fruiting in appropriate seasons for growth, reproduction and resting. As a consequence of their adaptation to geographically different environments, there is a rich diversity in plant phenology from temperate and tropical climates. Recent progress in genetic and molecular studies will provide numerous opportunities to study the genetic basis of phenological traits and the history of adaptation of phenological traits to seasonal and aseasonal environments. Integrating molecular data with long-term phenology and climate data into predictive models will be a powerful tool to forecast future phenological changes in the face of global environmental change. Here, we review the cross-scale approach from genes to plant communities from three aspects: the latitudinal gradient of plant phenology at the community level, the environmental and genetic factors underlying the diversity of plant phenology, and an integrated approach to forecast future plant phenology based on genetically informed knowledge. Synthesizing the latest knowledge about plant phenology from molecular, ecological and mathematical perspectives will help us understand how natural selection can lead to the further evolution of the gene regulatory mechanisms in phenological traits in future forest ecosystems.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity

Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discover problematic gaps. Current models usually cannot easily be reconfigured for other species or systems, omit key biological processes, and cannot accommodate feedbacks with Earth system dynamics. To fill these gaps, we envision an adaptable, accessible, and universal biodiversity modeling platform that can project essential biodiversity variables, explore the implications of divergent socioeconomic scenarios, and compare conservation and management strategies. We design a roadmap for implementing this vision and demonstrate that building this biodiversity forecasting platform is possible and practical.

Impact of microclimatic conditions and resource availability on spring and autumn phenology of temperate tree seedlings

Microclimatic effects (light, temperature) are often neglected in phenological studies and little information is known about the impact of resource availability (nutrient and water) on tree's phenological cycles. Here we experimentally studied spring and autumn phenology in four temperate trees in response to changes in bud albedo (white-painted vs black-painted buds), light conditions (nonshaded vs c. 70% shaded), water availability (irrigated, control and reduced precipitation) and nutrients (low vs high availability). We found that higher bud albedo or shade delayed budburst (up to +12 d), indicating that temperature is sensed locally within each bud. Leaf senescence was delayed by high nutrient availability (up to +7 d) and shade conditions (up to +39 d) in all species, except oak. Autumn phenological responses to summer droughts depended on species, with a delay for cherry (+7 d) and an advance for beech (-7 d). The strong phenological effects of bud albedo and light exposure reveal an important role of microclimatic variation on phenology. In addition to the temperature and photoperiod effects, our results suggest a tight interplay between source and sink processes in regulating the end of the seasonal vegetation cycle, which can be largely influenced by resource availability (light, water and nutrients).

Contrasting temporal variations in responses of leaf unfolding to daytime and nighttime warming

Earlier spring phenological events have been widely reported in plants under global warming. Recent studies reported a slowdown in the warming-induced advanced spring phenology in temperate regions. However, previous research mainly focused on daily mean temperature, thus neglecting the asymmetric phenological responses to daytime and nighttime temperature. Using long-term records of leaf unfolding in eight deciduous species at 1300 sites across central Europe, we assessed and compared the effects of daytime temperature, nighttime temperature, and photoperiod on leaf unfolding during 1951-1980 and 1981-2013. Although leaf unfolding was advanced by daytime warming during 1951-2013, the advancing responses of leaf unfolding significantly decreased from 1951-1980 to 1981-2013 due to a lower accumulation of chilling units by daytime warming. Nighttime warming delayed leaf unfolding during 1951-1980 but advanced it during 1981-2013 due to a higher accumulation of chilling units by nighttime warming. In contrast, critical daylength and plasticity of leaf unfolding dates remained unchanged between 1951 and 2013. Our study provided evidence that daytime warming instead of nighttime warming accounts for the slowdown in the advancing spring phenology and implied that nighttime warming-induced earlier spring phenology may be buffering the slowdown of the advanced spring phenology by daytime warming. The response of spring phenology to nighttime temperature may override that to daytime temperature under the actual trends in global warming.

Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions

Phenological escape, a strategy that deciduous understory plants use to access direct light in spring by leafing out before the canopy closes, plays an important role in shaping the recruitment of temperate tree seedlings. Previous studies have investigated how climate change will alter these dynamics for herbaceous species, but there is a knowledge gap related to how woody species such as tree seedlings will be affected. Here, we modeled temperate tree seedling leaf-out phenology and canopy close phenology in response to environmental drivers and used climate change projections to forecast changes to the duration of spring phenological escape. We then used these predictions to estimate changes in annual carbon assimilation while accounting for reduced carbon assimilation rates associated with hotter and drier summers. Lastly, we applied these estimates to previously published models of seedling growth and survival to investigate the net effect on seedling demographic performance. Our models predict that temperate tree seedlings will experience improved phenological escape and, therefore, increased spring carbon assimilation under climate change conditions. However, increased summer respiration costs will offset the gains in spring under extreme climate change leading to a net loss in annual carbon assimilation and demographic performance. Furthermore, we found that annual carbon assimilation predictions depend strongly on the species of nearby canopy tree that seedlings were planted near, with all seedlings projected to assimilate less carbon (and therefore experience worse demographic performance) when planted near Quercus rubra canopy trees as opposed to Acer saccharum canopy trees. We conclude that changes to spring phenological escape will have important effects on how tree seedling recruitment is affected by climate change, with the magnitude of these effects dependent upon climate change severity and biological interactions with neighboring adults. Thus, future studies of temperate forest recruitment should account for phenological escape dynamics in their models.

Does Phenological Plasticity Help or Hinder Range Shifts Under Climate Change?

Climate warming is predicted to shift species’ ranges as previously uninhabitable environments just beyond the leading range edges become suitable habitat and trailing range edges become increasingly unsuitable. Understanding which aspects of the environment and species traits mediate these range shifts is critical for understanding species’ possible redistributions under global change, yet we have a limited understanding of the ecological and evolutionary responses underlying population spread or extinction at species’ range edges. Within plant populations, shifts in flowering phenology have been one of the strongest and most consistent responses to climate change, and are likely to play an important role in mediating population dynamics within and beyond species’ ranges. However, the role of phenological shifts, and particularly phenological plasticity, in species’ range shifts remains relatively unstudied. Here, we synthesize literature on phenology, plasticity, and adaptation to suggest ways in which phenological responses to climate may vary across species’ ranges and review the empirical evidence for and against these hypotheses. We then outline how phenological plasticity could facilitate or hinder persistence and potential consequences of phenological plasticity in range expansions, including phenological cues, shifts in correlated traits, altered species interactions, and effects on gene flow. Finally, we suggest future avenues for research, such as characterizing reaction norms for phenology across a species’ range and in beyond-the-range transplant experiments. Given the prevalence and magnitude of phenological shifts, future work should carefully dissect its costs and benefits for population persistence, and incorporate phenological plasticity into models predicting species’ persistence and geographic range shifts under climate change.

Effects of experimental warming on Betula nana epidermal cell growth tested over its maximum climatological growth range

Numerous long-term, free-air plant growth facilities currently explore vegetation responses to the ongoing climate change in northern latitudes. Open top chamber (OTC) experiments as well as the experimental set-ups with active warming focus on many facets of plant growth and performance, but information on morphological alterations of plant cells is still scarce. Here we compare the effects of in-situ warming on leaf epidermal cell expansion in dwarf birch, Betula nana in Finland, Greenland, and Poland. The localities of the three in-situ warming experiments represent contrasting regions of B. nana distribution, with the sites in Finland and Greenland representing the current main distribution in low and high Arctic, respectively, and the continental site in Poland as a B. nana relict Holocene microrefugium. We quantified the epidermal cell lateral expansion by microscopic analysis of B. nana leaf cuticles. The leaves were produced in paired experimental treatment plots with either artificial warming or ambient temperature. At all localities, the leaves were collected in two years at the end of the growing season to facilitate between-site and within-site comparison. The measured parameters included the epidermal cell area and circumference, and using these, the degree of cell wall undulation was calculated as an Undulation Index (UI). We found enhanced leaf epidermal cell expansion under experimental warming, except for the extremely low temperature Greenland site where no significant difference occurred between the treatments. These results demonstrate a strong response of leaf growth at individual cell level to growing season temperature, but also suggest that in harsh conditions other environmental factors may limit this response. Our results provide evidence of the relevance of climate warming for plant leaf maturation and underpin the importance of studies covering large geographical scales.

Effects of rainfall, temperature and photoperiod on the phenology of ephemeral resources for selected bushveld woody plant species in southern Africa

Variability of ephemeral resources provided by woody plants is related to fluctuating environmental conditions, specifically the predominant climate variables temperature and rainfall. Photoperiod has less impact but also plays a role in the onset of resource pulses. In the seasonally affected bushveld of southern Africa, declining resources could have dire consequences to various animals that depend on these resources. Understanding the impact that rainfall, temperature and photoperiod has on woody plant resources allows managers of natural areas to plan for times when resources are scarce. Using a series of General Linear Models, this baseline study investigates the effects that these variables have on flower production, numbers of new fruit/pods and numbers of new leaves for 113 tagged trees from 26 woody plant species. Leads, lags and coincidental relationships observed between environmental predictor and phenological response variables were explored using time-series cross-correlations and concomitant correlograms. Model results indicated that temperature was the predominant indicator for flowering, with initial flowering starting when temperatures increase in September. A significant lead was observed between flowering and rainfall, suggesting that flower numbers increase approximately one month before rainfall increases. Temperature had the biggest effect on the number of species with new fruits and pods. Significant lags were observed between new fruits and pods and all environmental variables investigated, indicating that these resources depend on rainfall, temperature and photoperiod to reach their full potential. Photoperiod, temperature and the interaction between these variables had a noticeable effect on the number of species with new leaves. Peaks in species with new leaves coincide with peaks in rainfall, temperature and photoperiod. No leading or lagging indicators were observed between new leaves and the environmental variables investigated. In areas containing wildlife populations, recommendations are to undertake regular monitoring of climatic variables investigated, and the ephemeral resources on woody plant species.

Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models

Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio-temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations.We describe the development that different forest modelling communities have followed to underpin the leverage that simulation models offer for advancing our understanding of forest ecosystems.Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches - species distribution models, individual-based forest models, and dynamic global vegetation models - as examples, we show how scientific and technical advances have led models to transgress their initial objectives and limitations. We provide an overview of recent model applications on current important ecological topics and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.Synthesis. This overview shows that forest models, due to their complementarity and mutual enrichment, represent an invaluable toolkit to address a wide range of fundamental and applied ecological questions, hence fostering a deeper understanding of forest dynamics in the context of global change.

Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.

Advancing frost dates have reduced frost risk among most North American angiosperms since 1980

In recent decades, the final frost dates of winter have advanced throughout North America, and many angiosperm taxa have simultaneously advanced their flowering times as the climate has warmed. Phenological advancement may reduce plant fitness, as flowering prior to the final frost date of the winter/spring transition may damage flower buds or open flowers, limiting fruit and seed production. The risk of floral exposure to frost in the recent past and in the future, however, also depends on whether the last day of winter frost is advancing more rapidly, or less rapidly, than the date of onset of flowering in response to climate warming. This study presents the first continental-scale assessment of recent changes in frost risk to floral tissues, using digital records of 475,694 herbarium specimens representing 1,653 angiosperm species collected across North America from 1920 to 2015. For most species, among sites from which they have been collected, dates of last frost have advanced much more rapidly than flowering dates. As a result, frost risk has declined in 66% of sampled species. Moreover, exotic species consistently exhibit lower frost risk than native species, primarily because the former occupy warmer habitats where the annual frost-free period begins earlier. While reducing the probability of exposure to frost has clear benefits for the survival of flower buds and flowers, such phenological advancement may disrupt other ecological processes across North America, including pollination, herbivory, and disease transmission.

Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees

Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst - false springs - which may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially because few studies focus on the multiple underlying drivers of false spring risk. Here, we assessed the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six tree species across 11 648 sites in Europe, to determine which were the strongest predictors of false spring risk and how these predictors shifted with climate change. All predictors influenced false spring risk before recent warming, but their effects have shifted in both magnitude and direction with warming. These shifts have potentially magnified the variation in false spring risk among species with an increase in risk for early-leafout species (i.e. Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula) compared with a decline or no change in risk among late-leafout species (i.e. Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur). Our results show how climate change has reshaped the drivers of false spring risk, complicating forecasts of future false springs, and potentially reshaping plant community dynamics given uneven shifts in risk across species.

Minimum spring temperatures at the provenance origin drive leaf phenology in sugar maple populations

Late frost can cause damage to trees, especially to the developing bud of broadleaf species in spring. Through long-term adaptation, plants adjust leaf phenology to achieve an optimal trade-off between growing season length and frost avoidance. In this study, we aim to assess ecotypic differentiation in leaf development of sugar maple populations planted in a common garden. A total of 272 sugar maple seedlings from 29 Canadian provenances were planted at the northern boundary of the natural range, and the phenological phases of bud and leaf development were monitored during spring 2019. The wide geographical area under evaluation showed a complex seasonal pattern of temperature, with spring warming occurring later in the north and close to the sea. Overall, leaf development lasted between 20 and 36 days, from the end of May to end of June. We observed different timings and rates of leaf development among provenances, demonstrating the occurrence of ecotypes in this species. Minimum April temperatures of the original sites were able to explain such differences, while maximum April temperatures were not significant. Seedlings from sites with colder minimum April temperatures completed leaf development earlier and faster. On average, leaf development diverged by up to 6 days among provenances, with minimum April temperatures ranging from -3 to 3 °C. Our results demonstrated that the avoidance of late spring frost is a driving force of leaf development in sugar maple populations. In the colder sites, the growing season is a limiting factor for tree growth. Thus, when thermal conditions become favorable in spring, an earlier growth reactivation and high metabolic activity ensure a fast leaf emission, which maximizes the period available for photosynthesis and growth. These patterns demonstrate the long-term phenological adaptation of sugar maple populations to local climatic conditions and suggest the importance of frost events for leaf development.

Mapping Species at an Individual-Tree Scale in a Temperate Forest, Using Sentinel-2 Images, Airborne Laser Scanning Data, and Random Forest Classification

Detailed information about tree species composition is critical to forest managers and ecologists. In this study, we used Sentinel-2 imagery in combination with a canopy height model (CHM) derived from airborne laser scanning (ALS) to map individual tree crowns and identify them to species level. Our study area covered 140 km2 of a mainly mixed temperate forest in the Veluwe area in The Netherlands. Ground truth data on tree species were acquired for 2460 trees. Tree crowns were automatically delineated from the CHM model. We identified the delineated tree crowns to species and phylum level (angiosperm vs. gymnosperm) using a random forest (RF) classification. The RF model used multitemporal spectral variables from Sentinel-2 and crown structural variables from the CHM and was validated using an independent dataset. Different combinations of variables were tested. After feature reduction from 25 to 15 features, the RF model identified tree crowns with an overall accuracy of 78.5% (Kappa value 0.75) for tree species and 84.5% (Kappa value 0.73) for tree phyla whilst using the combination of all variables. Adding crown structural and multitemporal spectral information improved the RF classification compared to using only a Sentinel image from one season as input data. The producer’s accuracies varied between 43.8% for Norway spruce (Picea abies) to 95.3% for Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii). The RF model was extrapolated to generate a tree species map over a study area (140 km2). The map showed high abundances of common oak (Quercus robur; 35.5%) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris; 22.8%) and low abundances of Norway spruce (Picea abies; 1.7%) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii; 2.8%). Our results indicate a high potential for individual tree classification based on Sentinel-2 imagery and automatically derived tree crowns from canopy height models.

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum's phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments' legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

Explaining the exceptional 4270 m high elevation limit of an evergreen oak in the south-eastern Himalayas

Unlike the well-understood alpine treeline, the upper range limits of tree taxa that do not reach the alpine treeline are largely unexplained. In this study, we explored the causes of the exceptionally high elevation (4270 m) occurrence of broad-leaved evergreen oaks (Quercus pannosa) in the south-eastern Himalayas. We assessed the course of freezing resistance of buds and leaves from winter to summer at the upper elevational limit of this oak species. Linked to leaf phenology, we analyzed freezing resistance and assessed minimum crown temperature for the past 65 years. We also examined potential carbon limitation at the range limit of this species. Last season buds and leaves operated at a safety margin of 5.5 and 11 K in mid-winter. Once fully dehardened early in July, last season foliage is damaged at -5.9 and new foliage at -4.6 °C. Bud break is timed for late June to early July when low temperature extremes historically were never below -3.0 °C. The monsoon regime ensures a long remaining season (149 days), thus compensating for the late onset of shoot growth. Compared with a site at 3450 m, specific leaf area is reduced, foliar non-structural carbohydrate concentrations are similar and the δ13C signal is higher, jointly suggesting that carbon limitation is unlikely at the range limit of this species. We also show that these oaks enter the growing season with fully intact (not embolized) xylem. We conclude that the interaction between phenology and freezing tolerance results in safe flushing, while still facilitating shoot maturation before winter. These factors jointly determine the upper range limit of this oak species. Our study illuminates an exceptional case of broad-leaved evergreen tree performance near the treeline, and by exploring a suite of traits, we can underpin the central role of flushing phenology in such a stressful environment.

Phenological Differentiation in Sugar Maple Populations and Responses of Bud Break to an Experimental Warming

Species with wide geographical ranges exhibit specific adaptations to local climates, which may result in diverging responses among populations to changing conditions. Climate change has advanced spring phenology worldwide, but questions of whether and how the phenological responses to warming differ among individuals across the natural range of a species remain. We conducted two experiments in January and April 2019, and performed daily observations of the timings of bud break in 1-year-old seedlings of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) from 25 Canadian provenances at two thermal conditions (14/10 and 18/14 °C day/night temperature) in a controlled environment. Overall, bud break started 6 days from the beginning of the experiments and finished after 125 days. The earlier events were observed in seedlings originating from the colder sites. Bud break was delayed by 4.8 days per additional degree Celsius in the mean annual temperature at the origin site. Warming advanced the timing of bud break by 17–27 days in January and by 3–8 days in April. Similar advancements in bud break were observed among provenances under warming conditions, which rejected our hypothesis that sugar maple populations have different phenological responses to warming. Our findings confirm the differentiation in ecotypes for the process of bud break in sugar maple. In cases of homogenous spring warming across the native range of sugar maple, similar advancements in bud phenology can be expected in different populations.

Land surface phenology and greenness in Alpine grasslands driven by seasonal snow and meteorological factors

Snow accumulation and melt have multiple impacts on Land Surface Phenology (LSP) and greenness in Alpine grasslands. Our understanding of these impacts and their interactions with meteorological factors are still limited. In this study, we investigate this topic by analyzing LSP dynamics together with potential drivers, using satellite imagery and other data sources. LSP (start and end of season) and greenness metrics were extracted from time series of vegetation and leaf area index. As explanatory variables we used snow accumulation, snow cover melt date and meteorological factors. We tested for inter-annual co-variation of LSP and greenness metrics with seasonal snow and meteorological metrics across elevations and for four sub-regions of natural grasslands in the Swiss Alps over the period 2003-2014. We found strong positive correlations of snow cover melt date and snow accumulation with the start of season, especially at higher elevation. Autumn temperature was found to be important at the end of season below 2000 m above sea level (m asl), while autumn precipitation was relevant above 2000 m asl, indicating climatic growth limiting factors to be elevation dependent. The effects of snow and meteorological factors on greenness revealed that this metric tends to be influenced by temperatures at high elevations, and by snow melt date at low elevations. Given the high sensitivity of alpine grassland ecosystems, these results suggest that alpine grasslands may be particularly affected by future changes in seasonal snow, to varying degree depending on elevation.

Modeling leaf senescence of deciduous tree species in Europe

Autumnal leaf senescence signals the end of photosynthetic activities in temperate deciduous trees and consequently exerts a strong control on various ecological processes. Predicting leaf senescence dates (LSD) with high accuracy is thus a prerequisite for better understanding the climate-ecosystem interactions. However, modeling LSD at large spatial and temporal scales is challenging. In this study, first, we used 19972 site-year records (848 sites and four deciduous tree species) from the PAN European Phenology network to calibrate and evaluate six leaf senescence models during the period 1980-2013. Second, we extended the spatial analysis by repeating the procedure across Europe using satellite-derived end of growing season and a forest map. Overall, we found that models that considered photoperiod and temperature interactions outperformed models using simple temperature or photoperiod thresholds for Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur. On the contrary, no model displayed reasonable predictions for Aesculus hippocastanum. This inter-model comparison indicates that, contrary to expectation, photoperiod does not significantly modulate the accumulation of cooling degree days (CDD). On the other hand, considering the carryover effect of leaf unfolding date could promote the models' predictability. The CDD models generally matched the observed LSD at species level and its interannual variation, but were limited in explaining the inter-site variations, indicating that other environmental cues need to be considered in future model development. The discrepancies remaining between model simulations and observations highlight the need of manipulation studies to elucidate the mechanisms behind the leaf senescence process and to make current models more realistic.

A global-scale ecological niche model to predict SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection rate

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A Maximum-Entropy Ecological Niche Model is used to estimate a global-scale probability distribution of COVID-19 high infection rate.

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Environmental parameters (surface air temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and humanrelated parameters (CO₂ emission and population density) are used in the model.

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The model is trained only with data of Italian provinces with high infection rate, but predicts known actual infection focuses, e.g. the Hubei province in China.

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A risk index is proposed, which correctly classifies most World countries, which have reported high COVID-19 spread rate, as zones with high-risk of infection rate increase.

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The methodology follows an Open-science approach where the model is published as a standardized Web service that maximises re-usability on new data and new diseases, and guarantees the transparency of the approach and the results.

COVID-19 pandemic is a global threat to human health and economy that requires urgent prevention and monitoring strategies. Several models are under study to control the disease spread and infection rate and to detect possible factors that might favour them, with a focus on understanding the correlation between the disease and specific geophysical parameters. However, the pandemic does not present evident environmental hindrances in the infected countries. Nevertheless, a lower rate of infections has been observed in some countries, which might be related to particular population and climatic conditions.

In this paper, infection rate of COVID-19 is modelled globally at a 0.5^∘ resolution, using a Maximum Entropy-based Ecological Niche Model that identifies geographical areas potentially subject to a high infection rate. The model identifies locations that could favour infection rate due to their particular geophysical (surface air temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and human-related characteristics (CO² and population density). It was trained by facilitating data from Italian provinces that have reported a high infection rate and subsequently tested using datasets from World countries’ reports. Based on this model, a risk index was calculated to identify the potential World countries and regions that have a high risk of disease increment.

The distribution outputs foresee a high infection rate in many locations where real-world disease outbreaks have occurred, e.g. the Hubei province in China, and reports a high risk of disease increment in most World countries which have reported significant outbreaks (e.g. Western U.S.A.). Overall, the results suggest that a complex combination of the selected parameters might be of integral importance to understand the propagation of COVID-19 among human populations, particularly in Europe. The model and the data were distributed through Open-science Web services to maximise opportunities for re-usability regarding new data and new diseases, and also to enhance the transparency of the approach and results.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process‐based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter‐gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

Transcription factor TCP20 regulates peach bud endodormancy by inhibiting DAM5/DAM6 and interacting with ABF2

The dormancy-associated MADS-box (DAM) genes PpDAM5 and PpDAM6 have been shown to play important roles in bud endodormancy; however, their molecular regulatory mechanism in peach is unclear. In this study, by use of yeast one-hybrid screening, we isolated a TEOSINTE BRANCHED1/CYCLOIDEA/PROLIFERATING CELL FACTOR transcription factor, PpTCP20, in the peach cultivar 'Zhongyou 4' (Prunus persica var. nectarina). The protein was localized in the nucleus and was capable of forming a homodimer. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays demonstrated that PpTCP20 binds to a GCCCR element in the promoters of PpDAM5 and PpDAM6, and transient dual luciferase experiments showed that PpTCP20 inhibited the expression of PpDAM5 and PpDAM6 as the period of the release of flower bud endodormancy approached. In addition, PpTCP20 interacted with PpABF2 to form heterodimers to regulate bud endodormancy, and the content of abscisic acid decreased with the release of endodormancy. PpTCP20 also inhibited expression of PpABF2 to regulate endodormancy. Taken together, our results suggest that PpTCP20 regulates peach flower bud endodormancy by negatively regulating the expression of PpDAM5 and PpDAM6, and by interacting with PpABF2, thus revealing a novel regulatory mechanism in a perennial deciduous tree.

Flower phenology as a disruptor of the fruiting dynamics in temperate oak species

Many perennial plants display masting, that is, fruiting with strong interannual variations, irregular and synchronized between trees within the population. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the early flower phenology in temperate oak species promotes stochasticity into their fruiting dynamics, which could play a major role in tree reproductive success. From a large field monitoring network, we compared the pollen phenology between temperate and Mediterranean oak species. Then, focusing on temperate oak species, we explored the influence of the weather around the time of budburst and flowering on seed production, and simulated with a mechanistic model the consequences that an evolutionary shifting of flower phenology would have on fruiting dynamics. Temperate oak species release pollen earlier in the season than do Mediterranean oak species. Such early flowering in temperate oak species results in pollen often being released during unfavorable weather conditions and frequently results in reproductive failure. If pollen release were delayed as a result of natural selection, fruiting dynamics would exhibit much reduced stochastic variation. We propose that early flower phenology might be adaptive by making mast-seeding years rare and unpredictable, which would greatly help in controlling the dynamics of seed consumers.

Do differences in developmental mode shape the potential for local adaptation?

Future climate change is leading to the redistribution of life on Earth as species struggle to cope with rising temperatures. Local adaptation allows species to become locally optimized and persist despite environmental selection, but the extent to which this occurs in nature may be limited by dispersal and gene flow. Congeneric marine gastropod species (Littorina littorea and L. saxatilis) with markedly different developmental modes were collected from across a latitudinal thermal gradient to explore the prevalence of local adaptation to temperature. The acute response of metabolic rate (using oxygen consumption as a proxy) to up-ramping and down-ramping temperature regimes between 6°C and 36°C was quantified for five populations of each species. The highly dispersive L. littorea exhibited minimal evidence of local adaptation to the thermal gradient, with no change in thermal optimum (T_opt ) or thermal breadth (T_br ) and a decline in maximal performance (_max ) with increasing latitude. In contrast, the direct developing L. saxatilis displayed evidence of local optimization, although these varied idiosyncratically with latitude, suggesting a suite of selective pressures may be involved in shaping thermal physiology in this relatively sedentary species. Our results show that the biogeography of thermal traits can differ significantly between related species, and show that interpopulation differences in thermal performance do not necessarily follow simple patterns that may be predicted based on latitudinal changes in environmental temperatures. Further research is clearly required to understand the mechanisms that can lead to the emergence of local adaptation in marine systems better and allow improved predictions of species redistribution in response to climate change.

Correlative climatic niche models predict real and virtual species distributions equally well

Climate is one of the main factors driving species distributions and global biodiversity patterns. Obtaining accurate predictions of species' range shifts in response to ongoing climate change has thus become a key issue in ecology and conservation. Correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) have become a prominent tool to this aim in the last decade and have demonstrated good predictive abilities with current conditions, irrespective of the studied taxon. However, cSDMs rely on statistical association between species' presence and environmental conditions and have rarely been challenged on their actual capacity to reflect causal relationships between species and climate. In this study, we question whether cSDMs can accurately identify if climate and species distributions are causally linked, a prerequisite for accurate prediction of range shift in relation to climate change. We compared the performance of cSDMs in predicting the distributions of 132 European terrestrial species, chosen randomly within five taxonomic groups (three vertebrate groups and two plant groups), and of 1,320 virtual species whose distribution is causally fully independent from climate. We found that (1) for real species, the performance of cSDMs varied principally with range size, rather than with taxonomic groups and (2) cSDMs did not predict the distributions of real species with a greater accuracy than the virtual ones. Our results unambiguously show that the high predictive power of cSDMs can be driven by spatial autocorrelation in climatic and distributional data and does not necessarily reflect causal relationships between climate and species distributions. Thus, high predictive performance of cSDMs does not ensure that they accurately depict the role of climate in shaping species distributions. Our findings therefore call for strong caution when using cSDMs to provide predictions on future range shifts in response to climate change.