Negative correlation does not imply a tradeoff between growth and reproduction in California oaks

Detecting context dependence in the expression of life history trade-offs

Life history trade-offs are one of the central tenets of evolutionary demography. Trade-offs, depicting negative covariances between individuals' life history traits, can arise from genetic constraints, or from a finite amount of resources that each individual has to allocate in a zero-sum game between somatic and reproductive functions. While theory predicts that trade-offs are ubiquitous, empirical studies have often failed to detect such negative covariances in wild populations. One way to improve the detection of trade-offs is by accounting for the environmental context, as trade-off expression may depend on environmental conditions. However, current methodologies usually search for fixed covariances between traits, thereby ignoring their context dependence. Here, we present a hierarchical multivariate 'covariance reaction norm' model, adapted from Martin (2023), to help detect context dependence in the expression of life-history trade-offs using demographic data. The method allows continuous variation in the phenotypic correlation between traits. We validate the model on simulated data for both intraindividual and intergenerational trade-offs. We then apply it to empirical datasets of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and Soay sheep (Ovis aries) as a proof-of-concept showing that new insights can be gained by applying our methodology, such as detecting trade-offs only in specific environments. We discuss its potential for application to many of the existing long-term demographic datasets and how it could improve our understanding of trade-off expression in particular, and life history theory in general.

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Climate-driven convergent evolution in riparian ecosystems on sky islands

Climate-induced evolution will determine population persistence in a changing world. However, finding natural systems in which to study these responses has been a barrier to estimating the impact of global change on a broad scale. We propose that isolated sky islands (SI) and adjacent mountain chains (MC) are natural laboratories for studying long-term and contemporary climatic pressures on natural populations. We used greenhouse common garden trees to test whether populations on SI exposed to hot and dry climates since the end of the Pleistocene have phenotypically diverged from populations on MC, and if SI populations have converged in these traits. We show: (1) populations of Populus angustifolia from SI have diverged from MC, and converged across SI, in reproductive and productivity traits, (2) these traits (cloning and aboveground biomass, respectively) are significantly correlated, suggesting a genetic linkage between them, and (3) the trait variation is driven by both natural selection and genetic drift. These shifts represent potentially beneficial phenotypes for population persistence in a changing world. These results suggest that the SI-MC comparison is a natural laboratory, as well as a predictive framework, for studying long-term responses to climate change across the globe.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects the species-level temporal variation in seed and leaf fall in a mixed temperate forest

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the variation between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm conditions (El Niño), is one of the most prominent large-scale climate patterns with worldwide effects. Elevated seed and leaf fall has been found at the positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) in tropical forests. However, how seed and leaf fall respond to ENSO at species level is understudied, especially in temperate forests. In this study, we monitored seed and leaf fall at the species-level at 150 points across a 25-ha temperate forest in northeastern China over a span of 12 years. Using time series and wavelet analyses, we assessed three hypotheses: 1) temperate tree species' seed and leaf fall are strongly, but differently, correlated with ENSO and, 2) community synchrony in seed and leaf occurred both at seasonal and ENSO scales; finally, 3) local climatic modulated the effects of ENSO on seed and leaf fall. We found that ENSO was significantly correlated with seed and leaf fall of all species, although correlation strength varied across species (r = 0.206-0.658). Specifically, ENSO indices (ENSO12 or ENSO34) accounted for the most variation in seed and leaf fall of Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (40 % and 34 %, respectively) and ranged 4 %-31 % in all other species. Leaf fall was synchronous with ENSO cycles with a period of 2-7 years, but community synchrony of seed fall was only detected at seasonal scales. ENSO influenced seed fall of Fraxinus mandshurica and Tilla amurensis by mediating rainfall and relative humidity, respectively, highlighting the interactive effects of local climate and ENSO. Our findings highlight the potential effects of ENSO on ecosystems outside of tropical regions and improve our ability to predict regeneration dynamics and nutrient cycling of temperate forests under the context of global change.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long‐run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Building integral projection models with nonindependent vital rates

Population dynamics are functions of several demographic processes including survival, reproduction, somatic growth, and maturation. The rates or probabilities for these processes can vary by time, by location, and by individual. These processes can co-vary and interact to varying degrees, e.g., an animal can only reproduce when it is in a particular maturation state. Population dynamics models that treat the processes as independent may yield somewhat biased or imprecise parameter estimates, as well as predictions of population abundances or densities. However, commonly used integral projection models (IPMs) typically assume independence across these demographic processes. We examine several approaches for modelling between process dependence in IPMs and include cases where the processes co-vary as a function of time (temporal variation), co-vary within each individual (individual heterogeneity), and combinations of these (temporal variation and individual heterogeneity). We compare our methods to conventional IPMs, which treat vital rates independent, using simulations and a case study of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). In particular, our results indicate that correlation between vital rates can moderately affect variability of some population-level statistics. Therefore, including such dependent structures is generally advisable when fitting IPMs to ascertain whether or not such between vital rate dependencies exist, which in turn can have subsequent impact on population management or life-history evolution.

Tree hazards compounded by successive climate extremes after masting in a small endemic tree, Distylium lepidotum, on subtropical islands in Japan

Ongoing global warming increases the frequency and severity of tropical typhoons and prolonged drought, leading to forest degradation. Simultaneous and/or successive masting events and climatic extremes may thus occur frequently in the near future. If these climatic extremes occur immediately after mass seed reproduction, their effects on individual trees are expected to be very severe because mass reproduction decreases carbohydrate reserves. While the effects of either a single climate extreme or masting alone on tree resilience/growth have received past research attention, understanding the cumulative effects of such multiple events remains challenging and is crucial for predicting future forest changes. Here, we report tree hazards compound by two successive climate extremes, a tropical typhoon and prolonged drought, after mass reproduction in an endemic tree species (Distylium lepidotum Nakai) on oceanic islands. Across individual trees, the starch stored within the sapwood of branchlets significantly decreased with reproductive efforts (fruit mass/shoot mass ratio). Typhoon damage significantly decreased not only the total leaf area of apical shoots but also the maximum photosynthetic rates. During the 5-month period after the typhoon, the mortality of large branchlets (8-10-mm diameter) increased with decreasing stored starch when the typhoon hit. During the prolonged summer drought in the next year, the recovery of total leaf area, stored starch, and hydraulic conductivity was negatively correlated with the stored starch at the typhoon. These data indicate that the level of stored starch within branchlets is the driving factor determining tree regrowth or dieback, and the restoration of carbohydrates after mass reproduction is synergistically delayed by such climate extremes. Stored carbohydrates are the major cumulative factor affecting individual tree resilience, resulting in their historical effects. Because of highly variable carbohydrate levels among individual trees, the resultant impacts of such successive events on forest dieback will be fundamentally different among trees.

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Arabis alpina: A perennial model plant for ecological genomics and life-history evolution

Many model organisms were chosen and achieved prominence because of an advantageous combination of their life‐history characteristics, genetic properties and also practical considerations. Discoveries made in Arabidopsis thaliana, the most renowned noncrop plant model species, have markedly stimulated studies in other species with different biology. Within the family Brassicaceae, the arctic–alpine Arabis alpina has become a model complementary to Arabidopsis thaliana to study the evolution of life‐history traits, such as perenniality, and ecological genomics in harsh environments. In this review, we provide an overview of the properties that facilitated the rapid emergence of A. alpina as a plant model. We summarize the evolutionary history of A. alpina, including genomic aspects, the diversification of its mating system and demographic properties, and we discuss recent progress in the molecular dissection of developmental traits that are related to its perennial life history and environmental adaptation. From this published knowledge, we derive open questions that might inspire future research in A. alpina, other Brassicaceae species or more distantly related plant families.

Crown defoliation decreases reproduction and wood growth in a marginal European beech population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Abiotic and biotic stresses related to climate change have been associated with increased crown defoliation, decreased growth and a higher risk of mortality in many forest tree species, but the impact of stresses on tree reproduction and forest regeneration remains understudied. At the dry, warm margin of species distributions, flowering, pollination and seed maturation are expected to be affected by drought, late frost and other stresses, eventually resulting in reproduction failure. Moreover, inter-individual variation in reproductive performance versus other performance traits (growth, survival) could have important consequences for population dynamics. This study investigated the relationships among individual crown defoliation, growth and reproduction in a drought-prone population of European beech, Fagus sylvatica.

METHODS

We used a spatially explicit mating model and marker-based parentage analyses to estimate effective female and male fecundities of 432 reproductive trees, which were also monitored for basal area increment and crown defoliation over 9 years.

KEY RESULTS

Female and male fecundities varied markedly between individuals, more than did growth. Both female fecundity and growth decreased with increasing crown defoliation and competition, and increased with size. Moreover, the negative effect of defoliation on female fecundity was size-dependent, with a slower decline in female fecundity with increasing defoliation for the large individuals. Finally, a trade-off between growth and female fecundity was observed in response to defoliation: some large trees maintained significant female fecundity at the expense of reduced growth in response to defoliation, while some other defoliated trees maintained high growth at the expense of reduced female fecundity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that, while decreasing their growth, some large defoliated trees still contribute to reproduction through seed production and pollination. This non-coordinated decline of growth and fecundity at individual level in response to stress may compromise the evolution of stress-resistance traits at population level, and increase forest tree vulnerability.

Holm oak fecundity does not acclimate to a drier world

Climate change might impact tree fecundity by altering the relative influences of meteorological and physiological drivers, and by modifying resource investment in reproduction. Using a 13-yr monitoring of Quercus ilex reproduction in a rainfall exclusion experiment, we analysed the interactive effects of long-term increased aridity and other environmental drivers on the inter-annual variation of fecundity (male flower biomass, number of initiated and mature fruits). Summer-autumn water stress was the main driver of fruit abortion during fruit growth. Rainfall exclusion treatment strongly reduced the number of initiated and mature fruits, even in masting years, and did not increase fruit tolerance to severe drought. Conversely, the relative contribution of the meteorological and physiological drivers, and the inter-annual variability of fruit production were not modified by rainfall exclusion. Rather than inducing an acclimation of tree fecundity to water limitation, increased aridity impacted it negatively through both lower fruit initiation due to changes in resource allocation, and more severe water and resource limitations during fruit growth. Long-term increased aridity affected tree reproduction beyond what is expected from the current response to inter-annual drought variations, suggesting that natural regeneration of holm oak forest could be jeopardised in the future.

Competition between photosynthesis and reproduction is constrained by leaf mass per unit area (LMA) in ferns

Diversity in plant life histories is primarily that found in the rate and duration of photosynthetic (vegetative) and reproductive growth. However, direct evidence for an anticipated trade-off between photosynthesis and reproduction is lacking in any plant lineage. Ferns allocate leaf space and resources to both photosynthesis and reproduction, potentially leading to competition for leaf resources between stomatal pores and reproductive spores. We hypothesized that a trade-off between stomatal density (StD; a proxy for photosynthetic capacity) and sporangial density (SpD; a measure of fertility) has evolved in monomorphic ferns due to the common space, time and resource constraints imposed by a highly conserved and globally low leaf mass per unit area (LMA) in ferns, where any increase in LMA indicated greater construction cost and longer leaf lifespan. We measured LMA, StD and SpD in 40 fern species in India that represented both monomorphic and dimorphic conditions from both terrestrial and epiphytic habits. Both StD and SpD showed a 50-fold range in monomorphic species whereas LMA was more conserved (six-fold range). LMA of terrestrial ferns was significantly lower than that of epiphytic ferns. Linear regression between LMA and StD was significantly positive in dimorphic terrestrial ferns (showing the lowest LMA among all ferns) and significantly negative in monomorphic epiphytic ferns (showing the highest LMA among all ferns). Dimorphic terrestrial ferns were highly fecund on their fertile leaves and showed a significantly higher StD to LMA ratio on their sterile leaves compared to monomorphic terrestrial ferns. Dimorphic ferns seem to maximize both StD and SpD by physical separation of photosynthesis and reproduction, and their characteristically low LMA (shorter leaf lifespan = smaller time window) potentially selects for high StD and high fertility. The regression between StD and SpD in monomorphic ferns was significantly linear and positive, although comparisons among closely related species (within families) showed negative correlations when both StD and SpD were high, captured also by a significant quadratic regression between StD and SpD in monomorphic ferns. Monomorphic terrestrial species bearing more spores per stomata showed relatively low LMA whereas those producing fewer spores per stomata possessed leaves with relatively high LMA. Monomorphic epiphytes produced as many spores as terrestrial species but showed significantly low StD for their high LMA. We discuss the evolutionary reasons behind these trends and conclude that monomorphic terrestrial ferns with high LMA (long leaf lifespan) tend to prioritize photosynthesis over reproduction, while monomorphic epiphytes (always high LMA) are significantly more fertile for lower photosynthesis. The role of LMA in framing the rules of competition between stomata and sporangia in monomorphic ferns provides a template for how photosynthesis may directly or indirectly influence reproductive strategies (and vice versa) in all land plants.

Resource manipulation through experimental defoliation has legacy effects on allocation to reproductive and vegetative organs in Quercus ilex

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In plants, high costs of reproduction during some years can induce trade-offs in resource allocation with other functions such as growth, survival and resistance against herbivores or extreme abiotic conditions, but also with subsequent reproduction. Such trade-offs might also occur following resource shortage at particular moments of the reproductive cycle. Because plants are modular organisms, strategies for resource allocation to reproduction can also vary among hierarchical levels. Using a defoliation experiment, our aim was to test how allocation to reproduction was impacted by resource limitation.

METHODS

We applied three levels of defoliation (control, moderate and intense) to branches of eight Quercus ilex trees shortly after fruit initiation and measured the effects of resource limitation induced by leaf removal on fruit development (survival, growth and germination potential) and on the production of vegetative and reproductive organs the year following defoliation.

KEY RESULTS

We found that defoliation had little impact on fruit development. Fruit survival was not affected by the intense defoliation treatment, but was reduced by moderate defoliation, and this result could not be explained by an upregulation of photosynthesis. Mature fruit mass was not affected by defoliation, nor was seed germination success. However, in the following spring defoliated branches produced fewer shoots and compensated for leaf loss by overproducing leaves at the expense of flowers. Therefore, resource shortage decreased resource allocation to reproduction the following season but did not affect sex ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the idea of a regulation of resource allocation to reproduction beyond the shoot scale. Defoliation had larger legacy effects than immediate effects.

It is not just a 'trade-off': indications for sink- and source-limitation to vegetative and regenerative growth in an old-growth beech forest

Controls on tree growth are key issues in plant physiology. The hypothesis of our study was that the interannual variability of wood and fruit production are primarily controlled directly by weather conditions (sink limitation), while carbon assimilation (source limitation) plays a secondary role. We analyzed the interannual variability of weather conditions, gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) of wood and fruits of an old-growth, unmanaged Fagus sylvatica forest over 14 yr, including six mast years. In a multiple linear regression model, c. 71% of the annual variation in wood-NPP could be explained by mean air temperature in May, precipitation from April to May (positive influence) and fruit-NPP (negative influence). GPP of June to July solely explained c. 42% of the variation in wood-NPP. Fruit-NPP was positively related to summer precipitation 2 yr before (R²  = 0.85), and negatively to precipitation in May (R²  = 0.83) in the fruit years. GPP had no influence on fruit-NPP. Our results suggest a complex system of sink and source limitations to tree growth driven by weather conditions and going beyond a simple carbon-mediated 'trade-off' between regenerative and vegetative growth.

Accounting for stochasticity in demographic compensation along the elevational range of an alpine plant

Demographic compensation arises when vital rates change in opposite directions across populations, buffering the variation in population growth rates, and is a mechanism often invoked to explain the stability of species geographic ranges. However, studies on demographic compensation have disregarded the effects of temporal variation in vital rates and their temporal correlations, despite theoretical evidence that stochastic dynamics can affect population persistence in temporally varying environments. We carried out a seven-year-long demographic study on the perennial plant Arabis alpina (L.) across six populations encompassing most of its elevational range. We discovered demographic compensation in the form of negative correlations between the means of plant vital rates, but also between their temporal coefficients of variation, correlations and elasticities. Even if their contribution to demographic compensation was small, this highlights a previously overlooked, but potentially important, role of stochastic processes in stabilising population dynamics at range margins.

Larger bacterial populations evolve heavier fitness trade-offs and undergo greater ecological specialization

Evolutionary studies over the last several decades have invoked fitness trade-offs to explain why species prefer some environments to others. However, the effects of population size on trade-offs and ecological specialization remain largely unknown. To complicate matters, trade-offs themselves have been visualized in multiple ways in the literature. Thus, it is not clear how population size can affect the various aspects of trade-offs. To address these issues, we conducted experimental evolution with Escherichia coli populations of two different sizes in two nutritionally limited environments, and studied fitness trade-offs from three different perspectives. We found that larger populations evolved greater fitness trade-offs, regardless of how trade-offs are conceptualized. Moreover, although larger populations adapted more to their selection conditions, they also became more maladapted to other environments, ultimately paying heavier costs of adaptation. To enhance the generalizability of our results, we further investigated the evolution of ecological specialization across six different environmental pairs, and found that larger populations specialized more frequently and evolved consistently steeper reaction norms of fitness. This is the first study to demonstrate a relationship between population size and fitness trade-offs, and the results are important in understanding the population genetics of ecological specialization and vulnerability to environmental changes.

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: an agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant proximate drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?

Theoretical studies suggest that temporal covariation among and temporal autocorrelation within demographic rates are important features of population dynamics. Yet, empirical studies have rarely focused on temporal covariation and autocorrelation limiting our understanding of these patterns in natural populations. This lack of knowledge restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics and to make reliable population forecasts. In order to fill this gap, we used a long-term monitoring (15 years) of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population to investigate covariation and autocorrelation in survival and reproduction at the population level and their impact on population dynamics. Using Bayesian joint analyses, we found support for positive covariation between survival and reproduction, but weak autocorrelation through time. This positive covariation was stronger in juveniles compared with adults. As expected for a specialized predator, we found that the reproductive performance was strongly related to an index of vole abundance explaining 86% of the temporal variation. This very strong relationship suggests that the temporally variable prey abundance may drive the positive covariation between survival and reproduction in this kestrel population. Simulations suggested that the observed effect size of covariation could be strong enough to affect population dynamics. More generally, positive covariation and autocorrelation have a destabilizing effect increasing substantially the temporal variability of population size.

Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal

Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.

Testing the competition-colonization trade-off and its correlations with functional trait variations among subtropical tree species

The competition-colonization trade-off, by which species can partition spatial niches, is a potentially important mechanism allowing the maintenance of species diversity in plant communities. We examined whether there was evidence for this trade-off among tree species in a subtropical forest and how it correlated with eight functional traits. We developed and estimated a metric for colonization ability that incorporates both fecundity and seed dispersal based on seed trap data and the sizes and distributions of adult trees. Competitive ability was estimated as survival probability under high crowding conditions based on neighborhood models. Although we found no significant relationship between colonization and competitive abilities, there was a significant negative correlation between long distance dispersal ability and competitive ability at the 5 cm size class. Colonizers had traits associated with faster growth, such as large leaves and low leaf lamina density, whereas competitors had traits associated with higher survival, such as dense wood. Our results imply that any trade-off between competition and colonization may be more determined by dispersal ability than by fecundity, suggesting that seed dispersal is an important contributor to diversity maintenance. Future work should test how competitive ability covaries with the components of colonization ability, as we did here.

Periodic catastrophes over human evolutionary history are necessary to explain the forager population paradox

The rapid growth of contemporary human foragers and steady decline of chimpanzees represent puzzling population paradoxes, as any species must exhibit near-stationary growth over much of their evolutionary history. We evaluate the conditions favoring zero population growth (ZPG) among 10 small-scale subsistence human populations and five wild chimpanzee groups according to four demographic scenarios: altered mean vital rates (i.e., fertility and mortality), vital rate stochasticity, vital rate covariance, and periodic catastrophes. Among most human populations, changing mean fertility or survivorship alone requires unprecedented alterations. Stochastic variance and covariance would similarly require major adjustment to achieve ZPG in most populations. Crashes could maintain ZPG in slow-growing populations but must be frequent and severe in fast-growing populations-more extreme than observed in the ethnographic record. A combination of vital rate alteration with catastrophes is the most realistic solution to the forager population paradox. ZPG in declining chimpanzees is more readily obtainable through reducing mortality and altering covariance. While some human populations may have hovered near ZPG under harsher conditions (e.g., violence or food shortage), modern Homo sapiens were equipped with the potential to rapidly colonize new habitats and likely experienced population fluctuations and local extinctions over evolutionary history.

Heritability and genetic architecture of reproduction-related traits in a temperate oak species

Reproduction, one of the main components of plant fitness, is highly variable in response to environmental cues, but little is known about the genetic determinism underlying reproduction-related traits in forest tree species. There is therefore an urgent need to characterize the genetic architecture of those traits if we are to predict the evolutionary trajectories of forest populations facing rapidly changing environment and mitigate their impacts. Using a full-sib family of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur), we investigated the within population variability of seed production and mean seed mass during four consecutive years. Reproductive traits were highly variable between trees and between years. The high narrow sense heritability and evolvability estimated underline the important genetic effect on the variability in seed production and mean seed mass. Despite a large variability over years, reproductive traits show significant genetic correlation between years. Furthermore, for the first time in forest tree species, quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with seed production and mean mass of a seed have been identified. While it is commonly assumed and observed that fitness-traits have low narrow sense heritabilities, our findings show that reproduction-related traits may undergo evolutionary changes under selective pressure and may be determinant for tree adaptation.

Correlated seed failure as an environmental veto to synchronize reproduction of masting plants

Variable, synchronized seed production, called masting, is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants. Resource dynamics, pollination success, and, as described here, environmental veto are possible proximate mechanisms driving masting. We explored the environmental veto hypothesis, which assumes that reproductive synchrony is driven by external factors preventing reproduction in some years, by extending the resource budget model of masting with correlated reproductive failure. We ran this model across its parameter space to explore how key parameters interact to drive seeding dynamics. Next, we parameterized the model based on 16 yr of seed production data for populations of red (Quercus rubra) and white (Quercus alba) oaks. We used these empirical models to simulate seeding dynamics, and compared simulated time series with patterns observed in the field. Simulations showed that resource dynamics and reproduction failure can produce masting even in the absence of pollen coupling. In concordance with this, in both oaks, among-year variation in resource gain and correlated reproductive failure were necessary and sufficient to reproduce masting, whereas pollen coupling, although present, was not necessary. Reproductive failure caused by environmental veto may drive large-scale synchronization without density-dependent pollen limitation. Reproduction-inhibiting weather events are prevalent in ecosystems, making described mechanisms likely to operate in many systems.

Life-history trade-offs vary with resource availability across the geographic range of a widespread plant

Trade-offs between reproduction, growth and survival arise from limited resource availability in plants. Environmental stress is expected to exacerbate these negative correlations, but no studies have evaluated variation in life-history trade-offs throughout species geographic ranges. Here we analyse the costs of growth and reproduction across the latitudinal range of the widespread herb Plantago coronopus in Europe. We monitored the performance of thousands of individuals in 11 populations of P. coronopus, and tested whether the effects of growth and reproduction on a set of vital rates (growth, probability of survival, probability of reproduction and fecundity) varied with local precipitation and soil fertility. To account for variation in internal resources among individuals, we analysed trade-offs correcting for differences in size. Growth was negatively affected by previous growth and reproduction. We also found costs of growth and reproduction on survival, reproduction probability and fecundity, but only in populations with low soil fertility. Costs also increased with precipitation, possibly due to flooding-related stress. In contrast, growth was positively correlated with subsequent survival, and there was a positive covariation in reproduction between consecutive years under certain environments, a potential strategy to exploit temporary benign conditions. Overall, we found both negative and positive correlations among vital rates across P. coronopus geographic range. Trade-offs predominated under stressful conditions, and positive correlations arose particularly between related traits like reproduction investment across years. By analysing multiple and diverse fitness components along stress gradients, we can better understand life-history evolution across species' ranges, and their responses to environmental change.

Drivers of vegetative dormancy across herbaceous perennial plant species

Vegetative dormancy, that is the temporary absence of aboveground growth for ≥ 1 year, is paradoxical, because plants cannot photosynthesise or flower during dormant periods. We test ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for its widespread persistence. We show that dormancy has evolved numerous times. Most species displaying dormancy exhibit life-history costs of sprouting, and of dormancy. Short-lived and mycoheterotrophic species have higher proportions of dormant plants than long-lived species and species with other nutritional modes. Foliage loss is associated with higher future dormancy levels, suggesting that carbon limitation promotes dormancy. Maximum dormancy duration is shorter under higher precipitation and at higher latitudes, the latter suggesting an important role for competition or herbivory. Study length affects estimates of some demographic parameters. Our results identify life historical and environmental drivers of dormancy. We also highlight the evolutionary importance of the little understood costs of sprouting and growth, latitudinal stress gradients and mixed nutritional modes.

When do trade-offs occur? The roles of energy constraints and trait flexibility in bushcricket populations

In many animal species, the expression of sexually selected traits is negatively correlated with traits associated with survival such as immune function, a relationship termed a 'trade-off'. But an alternative in which sexually selected traits are positively correlated with survival traits is also widespread. We propose that the nature of intertrait relationships is largely determined by overall energy expenditure, energy availability and trait flexibility, with trade-offs expected when individuals are subject to energy constraints. We tested this hypothesis in Ephippiger diurnus, a European bushcricket in which males are distinguished by two prominent sexually selected traits, acoustic calls and a large spermatophore transferred to the female at mating, and where immune function may be critical in survival. Ephippiger diurnus are distributed as small, isolated populations that are differentiated genetically and behaviourally. We analysed songs, spermatophores and the immune function in male individuals from eight populations spanning a range of song types. As predicted, we only found trade-offs in those populations that expended more energy on song and were less flexible in their ability to adjust that expenditure. Ultimately, energy constraints and resulting trade-offs may limit the evolution of song exaggeration in E. diurnus populations broadcasting long calls comprised of multiple 'syllables'.

Growth rate reduction causes a decline in the annual incremental trunk growth in masting Fagus crenata trees

Tree trunk annual increments are markedly reduced in mast years. There are two hypotheses that could explain the mechanism for this phenomenon: (1) a reduction in the duration of growth due to switching the resource allocation from somatic growth to seed production; (2) reduction of growth rate due to resources being shared between somatic growth and reproduction simultaneously. In this study, we aimed to test these hypotheses in Fagus crenata  Blume from the point of view of resource allocation. The radial growth patterns in F. crenata during a year without reproduction (2014) and a masting year (2015) were monitored using a digital dendrometer. At the same time, shoot growth patterns were monitored by sampling branches from the top of the canopy. Data obtained using the digital dendrometer were fitted to a sigmoidal function, and the parameters of the function were evaluated with a hierarchal Bayesian approach; estimated parameters were used to represent the properties of trunk growth phenology. Trunk growth started synchronously just after leaf unfurling in both mass-fruiting (F15) and limited-fruiting (NF15) trees in 2014 and 2015. Reproduction reduced the growth rate in 2015. This was due to the resources being allocated for the development of cupules and for formation of relatively thick branches, both of which occurred simultaneously with trunk growth. There was no clear difference in the duration of radial growth between F15 and NF15 trees in the 2 years, although seed maturation started after trunk growth ceased. As a result, the annual trunk radius increment was reduced in the F15 trees in 2015. These results suggested that reduction of radial growth rate (Hypothesis 2) caused the reduction in annual trunk increment of reproducing trees of this species.

Increasing spring temperatures favor oak seed production in temperate areas

The changes in reproductive phenology (i.e. timing of flowering and fruiting) observed in recent decades demonstrate that tree reproduction has already been altered by climate change. However, understanding the impact of these changes in reproductive success and fitness remains a major challenge for ecologists. We describe here a previously unreported phenomenon: a significant increase in the reproductive effort (seed production) of temperate oaks with increasing spring temperature, observed over the last decade. In contrast, no relationship was found between seed production and precipitation. This sensitivity of seed production to temperature was confirmed by a "space-for-time" substitution based on elevation gradients. Our findings suggest that global warming may enhance oak reproductive effort in temperate ecosystems. Nevertheless, while fitness can be enhanced by higher levels of seed production, it also depends on the frequency and synchronization of mast seeding production, which may also be influenced by climate change.

Irregular Shelterwood Cuttings Promote Viability of European Yew Population Growing in a Managed Forest: A Case Study from the Starohorské Mountains, Slovakia

The increasing probability of Taxus baccata (L.) decline given climate change brings forth many uncertainties for conservation management decisions. In this article, the authors present the effects of applying regeneration cuttings since the year 2000 on the viability of the understory yew population. By collecting data from a stand located at the centre of the largest population of European yew in Slovakia, containing approximately 160,000 individuals, and analysing tree-ring records from 38 sampled trees, the improved performance of yews, including stem growth, seed production, and number of regenerated individuals, was revealed. Thinning the canopy by removing 15% of the growing stock volume per decade, combined with the subsequent irregular shelterwood cuttings, was assessed as a useful strategy. Moreover, lower radial growth of females compared to males, but simultaneously their similar response to climate, suggests a possible trade-off between reproduction and growth. Release cuttings of up to 30% of the standing volume in the vicinity of the female trees, executed in the rainy summers following warmer winters, and consistent elimination of deer browsing, can further enhance the positive effects of applied cuts on yew viability. Overall, the suggested active measures could be considered as an effective option to preserve the unique biodiversity of calcareous beech-dominated forests in Central Europe.

Drought and reproductive effort interact to control growth of a temperate broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica)

Interannual variation in radial growth is influenced by a range of physiological processes, including variation in annual reproductive effort, although the importance of reproductive allocation has rarely been quantified. In this study, we use long stand-level records of annual seed production, radial growth (tree ring width) and meteorological conditions to analyse the relative importance of summer drought and reproductive effort in controlling the growth of Fagus sylvatica L., a typical masting species. We show that both summer drought and reproductive effort (masting) influenced growth. Importantly, the effects of summer drought and masting were interactive, with the greatest reductions in growth found in years when high reproductive effort (i.e., mast years) coincided with summer drought. Conversely, mast years that coincided with non-drought summers were associated with little reduction in radial growth, as were drought years that did not coincide with mast years. The results show that the strength of an inferred trade-off between growth and reproduction in this species (the cost of reproduction) is dependent on environmental stress, with a stronger trade-off in years with more stressful growing conditions. These results have widespread implications for understanding interannual variability in growth, and observed relationships between growth and climate.

Testing the Terminal Investment Hypothesis in California Oaks

The terminal investment hypothesis-which proposes that reproductive investment should increase with age-related declines in reproductive value-has garnered support in a range of animal species but has not been previously examined in long-lived plants, such as trees. We tested this hypothesis by comparing relative acorn production and radial growth among 1,000+ mature individuals of eight species of California oaks (genus Quercus) followed for up to 37 years, during which time 70 trees died apparently natural deaths. We found no significant differences in the radial growth, acorn production, or index of reproductive effort, taking into consideration both growth and reproduction among dying trees relative to either conspecific trees at the same site that did not die or growth and reproduction from earlier years for the focal trees that did eventually die. Furthermore, we found no consistent trade-off between growth and reproduction among trees that died, nor did dying trees significantly alter their relative investment in reproduction even as they underwent physical decline. Trees approaching the end of their lives are often in poor physical condition but do not appear to differentially invest more of their diminished resources in reproduction compared with healthy trees.

Beech cupules as keystone structures for soil fauna

Facilitative or positive interactions are ubiquitous in nature and play a fundamental role in the configuration of ecological communities. In particular, habitat modification and niche construction, in which one organism locally modifies abiotic conditions and favours other organisms by buffering the effects of adverse environmental factors, are among the most relevant facilitative interactions. In line with this, ‘keystone structures’, which provide resources, refuge, or advantageous services decisive for other species, may allow the coexistence of various species and thus considerably contribute to diversity maintenance. Beech cupules are woody husks harbouring beech fruits that remain in the forest soil for relatively long periods of time. In this study, we explored the potential role of these cupules in the distribution and maintenance of the soil fauna inhabiting the leaf litter layer. We experimentally manipulated cupule availability and soil moisture in the field to determine if such structures are limiting and can provide moist shelter to soil animals during drought periods, contributing to minimize desiccation risks. We measured invertebrate abundances inside relative to outside the cupules, total abundances in the leaf litter and animal body sizes, in both dry and wet experimental plots. We found that these structures are preferentially used by the most abundant groups of smaller soil animals—springtails, mites and enchytraeids—during droughts. Moreover, beech cupules can be limiting, as an increase in use was found with higher cupule densities, and are important resources for many small soil invertebrates, driving the spatial structure of the soil community and promoting higher densities in the leaf litter, probably through an increase in habitat heterogeneity. We propose that fruit woody structures should be considered ‘keystone structures’ that contribute to soil community maintenance. Therefore, beech trees may indirectly facilitate soil fauna activities through their decaying fruit husks, hence acting as ecosystem engineers.

Current versus future reproduction and longevity: a re-evaluation of predictions and mechanisms

Oxidative damage is predicted to be a mediator of trade-offs between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, but most studies fail to support such predictions. We suggest that two factors underlie the equivocal nature of these findings: (1) investigators typically assume a negative linear relationship between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, even though this is not consistently shown by empirical studies; and (2) studies often fail to target mechanisms that could link interactions between sequential life-history events. Here, we review common patterns of reproduction, focusing on the relationships between reproductive performance, survival and parity in females. Observations in a range of species show that performance between sequential reproductive events can decline, remain consistent or increase. We describe likely bioenergetic consequences of reproduction that could underlie these changes in fitness, including mechanisms that could be responsible for negative effects being ephemeral, persistent or delayed. Finally, we make recommendations for designing future studies. We encourage investigators to carefully consider additional or alternative measures of bioenergetic function in studies of life-history trade-offs. Such measures include reactive oxygen species production, oxidative repair, mitochondrial biogenesis, cell proliferation, mitochondrial DNA mutation and replication error and, importantly, a measure of the respiratory function to determine whether measured differences in bioenergetic state are associated with a change in the energetic capacity of tissues that could feasibly affect future reproduction or lifespan. More careful consideration of the life-history context and bioenergetic variables will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the life-history patterns of animals.

Seed predation and climate impacts on reproductive variation in temperate forests of the southeastern USA

Climatic effects on tree recruitment will be determined by the interactive effects of fecundity and seed predation. Evaluating how insect and vertebrate seed predators mediate tree reproductive responses to climate depends on long-term studies of seed production, development, and predation. In this study, our objectives were to (1) assess the effects of interannual climate variation on seed abortion rates, (2) assess the impact of seed density on predation rates, and (3) examine the degree to which density-dependent seed predation would amplify or dampen interannual variation in fecundity associated with seed abortion. We used a 19-year study of seed abortion and pre-dispersal predation rates by insects and vertebrates (birds and rodents) for five temperate tree species across forest plots from the North Carolina Piedmont to the Southern Appalachian Mountains in the southeastern USA. We found that rates of seed abortion and predation increased reproductive variation for oaks (Quercus species). Probability of seed abortion was greatest during years with cool, dry springs. Responses of seed predation on Quercus species to current year's seed density varied by species, but exhibited positive density-dependence to previous year's seed density consistent with numerical responses of seed predators. Seed abortion and predation rates for two drupe species responded little to variation in climate or seed density, respectively. Given that predation increased interannual variation in seed availability and the negative density-dependence to previous year's seed density, our results indicate that consistent numerical responses of oak seed predators may amplify interannual variation due to climate-mediated processes like seed abortion.

Trade-offs between life-history traits at range-edge and central locations

The allocation of resources to different life-history traits should represent the best compromise in fitness investment for organisms in their local environment. When resources are limiting, the investment in a specific trait must carry a cost that is expressed in trade-offs with other traits. In this study, the relative investment in the fitness-related traits, growth, reproduction and defence were compared at central and range-edge locations, using the seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum as a model system. Individual growth rates were similar at both sites, whereas edge populations showed a higher relative investment in reproduction (demonstrated by a higher reproductive allocation and extended reproductive periods) when compared to central populations that invested more in defence. These results show the capability of A. nodosum to differentially allocate resources for different traits under different habitat conditions, suggesting that reproduction and defence have different fitness values under the specific living conditions experienced at edge and central locations. However, ongoing climate change may threaten edge populations by increasing the selective pressure on specific traits, forcing these populations to lower the investment in other traits that are also potentially important for population fitness.

The rate-size trade-off structures intraspecific variation in Daphnia ambigua life history parameters

The identification of trade-offs is necessary for understanding the evolution and maintenance of diversity. Here we employ the supply-demand (SD) body size optimization model to predict a trade-off between asymptotic body size and growth rate. We use the SD model to quantitatively predict the slope of the relationship between asymptotic body size and growth rate under high and low food regimes and then test the predictions against observations for Daphnia ambigua. Close quantitative agreement between observed and predicted slopes at both food levels lends support to the model and confirms that a ‘rate-size’ trade-off structures life history variation in this population. In contrast to classic life history expectations, growth and reproduction were positively correlated after controlling for the rate-size trade-off. We included 12 Daphnia clones in our study, but clone identity explained only some of the variation in life history traits. We also tested the hypothesis that growth rate would be positively related to intergenic spacer length (i.e. the growth rate hypothesis) across clones, but we found that clones with intermediate intergenic spacer lengths had larger asymptotic sizes and slower growth rates. Our results strongly support a resource-based optimization of body size following the SD model. Furthermore, because some resource allocation decisions necessarily precede others, understanding interdependent life history traits may require a more nested approach.

Tradeoffs in basal area growth and reproduction shift over the lifetime of a long-lived tropical species

Understanding of the extent to which reproductive costs drive growth largely derives from reproductively mature temperate trees in masting and non-masting years. We modeled basal area increment (BAI) and explored current growth-reproduction tradeoffs and changes in such allocation over the life span of a long-lived, non-masting tropical tree. We integrated rainfall and soil variables with data from 190 Bertholletia excelsa trees of different diameter at breast height (DBH) sizes, crown characteristics, and liana loads, quantifying BAI and reproductive output over 4 and 6 years, respectively. While rainfall explains BAI in all models, regardless of DBH class or ontogenic stage, light (based on canopy position and crown form) is most critical in the juvenile (5 cm ≤ DBH < 50 cm) phase. Suppressed trees are only present as juveniles and grow ten times slower (1.45 ± 2.73 m(2) year(-1)) than trees in dominant and co-dominant positions (13.25 ± 0.82 and 12.90 ± 1.35 m(2) year(-1), respectively). Additionally, few juvenile trees are reproductive, and those that are, demonstrate reduced growth, as do reproductive trees in the next 50 to 100 cm DBH class, suggesting growth-reproduction tradeoffs. Upon reaching the canopy, however, and attaining a sizeable girth, this pattern gradually shifts to one where BAI and reproduction are influenced independently by variables such as liana load, crown size and soil properties. At this stage, BAI is largely unaffected by fruit production levels. Thus, while growth-reproduction tradeoffs clearly exist during early life stages, effects of reproductive allocation diminish as B. excelsa increases in size and maturity.