HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose levels are equally related to incident cardiovascular risk in a high CVD risk population without known diabetes

OBJECTIVES

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether screen-detected T2DM, based on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or on HbA1c, are associated with different risks of incident CVD in high-risk populations and which one is preferable for diabetes screening in these populations, remains unclear.

METHODS

A total of 8,274 high-risk CVD participants were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Participants were divided into groups based on prior T2DM diagnosis, and combinations of elevated/non-elevated FPG and HbA1c (cut-offs at 7 mmol/L and 48 mmol/mol, respectively): Group 0: known T2DM; group 1: elevated FPG/HbA1c; group 2: elevated FPG, non-elevated HbA1c; group 3: non-elevated FPG, elevated HbA1c; group 1 + 2: elevated FPG, regardless of HbA1c; group 1 + 3: elevated HbA1c, regardless of FPG; and group 4 (reference), non-elevated FPG/HbA1c.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.3 years (IQR 3.3-9.8), 712 cardiovascular events occurred. Compared to the reference (group 4), group 0 was at increased risk (HR 1.40; 95 % CI 1.16-1.68), but group 1 (HR 1.16; 95 % CI 0.62-2.18), 2 (HR 1.18; 95 % CI 0.84-1.67), 3 (HR 0.61; 95 % CI 0.15-2.44), 1 + 2 (HR 1.17; 95 % CI 0.86-1.59) and 1 + 3 (HR 1.01; 95 % CI 0.57-1.79) were not. However, spline interpolation showed a linearly increasing risk with increasing HbA1c/FPG, but did not allow for identification of other cut-off points.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on current cut-offs, FPG and HbA1c at screening were equally related to incident CVD in high-risk populations without known T2DM. Hence, neither FPG, nor HbA1c, is preferential for diabetes screening in this population with respect to risk of incident CVD.

Genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes mellitus and aortic dissection: a Mendelian randomisation study

Background

This Mendelian randomization (MR) study aimed to explore the causal relationship between the genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and aortic dissection (AD), and to assess associations with genetically predicted glycemic traits. The study sought to verify the inverse relationship between T2DM and AD using a more robust and unbiased method, building on the observational studies previously established.

Materials and methods

The study employed a two-sample and multivariable MR approach to analyze genetic data from the DIAbetes Meta-ANalysis of Trans-Ethnic association studies (DIAMANTE) with 74,124 cases and 824,006 controls, and the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-Related Traits Consortium (MAGIC) involving up to 196,991 individuals. For AD data, FinnGen Release 10 was used, including 967 cases and 381,977 controls. The research focused on three foundational MR assumptions and controlled for confounders like hypertension. Genetic instruments were selected for their genome-wide significance, and multiple MR methods and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results

The study revealed no significant effect of genetic predisposition to T2DM on the risk of AD. Even after adjusting for potential confounders, the results were consistent, indicating no causal relationship. Additionally, glycemic traits such as fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and HbA1c levels did not show a significant impact on AD susceptibility. The findings remained stable across various MR models and sensitivity analyses. In contrast, genetic liability to T2DM and glycemic traits showed a significant association with coronary artery disease (CAD), aligning with the established understanding.

Conclusion

Contrary to previous observational studies, this study concludes that genetic predisposition to T2DM does not confer protection against AD. These findings underscore the imperative for further research, particularly in exploring the preventative potential of T2DM treatments against AD and to facilitate the development of novel therapeutic interventions.

Bidirectional relationship between type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease: Prospective cohort study and genetic analyses

BACKGROUND

While type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is considered a putative causal risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD), the intrinsic link underlying T2DM and CAD is not fully understood. We aimed to highlight the importance of integrated care targeting both diseases by investigating the phenotypic and genetic relationships between T2DM and CAD.

METHODS

We evaluated phenotypic associations using data from the United Kingdom Biobank ( N = 472,050). We investigated genetic relationships by leveraging genomic data conducted in European ancestry for T2DM, with and without adjustment for body mass index (BMI) (T2DM: Ncase / Ncontrol = 74,124/824,006; T2DM adjusted for BMI [T2DM adj BMI]: Ncase / Ncontrol = 50,409/523,897) and for CAD ( Ncase / Ncontrol = 181,522/984,168). We performed additional analyses using genomic data conducted in multiancestry individuals for T2DM ( Ncase / Ncontrol = 180,834/1,159,055).

RESULTS

Observational analysis suggested a bidirectional relationship between T2DM and CAD (T2DM→CAD: hazard ratio [HR] = 2.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.01-2.24; CAD→T2DM: HR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.63-1.81). A positive overall genetic correlation between T2DM and CAD was observed ( rg = 0.39, P = 1.43 × 10 -75 ), which was largely independent of BMI (T2DM adj BMI-CAD: rg = 0.31, P = 1.20 × 10 -36 ). This was corroborated by six local signals, among which 9p21.3 showed the strongest genetic correlation. Cross-trait meta-analysis replicated 101 previously reported loci and discovered six novel pleiotropic loci. Mendelian randomization analysis supported a bidirectional causal relationship (T2DM→CAD: odds ratio [OR] = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.11-1.16; CAD→T2DM: OR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.07-1.18), which was confirmed in multiancestry individuals (T2DM→CAD: OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.10-1.16; CAD→T2DM: OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.13). This bidirectional relationship was significantly mediated by systolic blood pressure and intake of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors, with mediation proportions of 54.1% (95% CI: 24.9-83.4%) and 90.4% (95% CI: 29.3-151.5%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our observational and genetic analyses demonstrated an intrinsic bidirectional relationship between T2DM and CAD and clarified the biological mechanisms underlying this relationship.

Mendelian randomization studies on coronary artery disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. We aimed to summarize what is currently known with regard to causal modifiable risk factors associated with CAD in populations of diverse ancestries through conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of Mendelian randomization (MR) studies on CAD.

METHODS

The databases Embase, Medline, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched on the 19th and 20th of December 2022 for MR studies with CAD as a primary outcome; keywords of the search strategy included "coronary artery disease" and "mendelian randomization". Studies were included if they were published in the English language, included only human participants, employed Mendelian randomization as the primary methodology and studied CAD as the outcome of interest. The exclusion criteria resulted in the removal of studies that did not align with the predefined inclusion criteria, as well as studies which were systematic reviews themselves, and used the same exposure and outcome source as another study. An ancestry-specific meta-analysis was subsequently conducted on studies which investigated either body mass index, lipid traits, blood pressure or type 2 diabetes as an exposure variable. Assessment of publication bias and sensitivity analyses was conducted for risk of bias assessment in the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 1781 studies were identified through the database searches after de-duplication was performed, with 47 studies included in the quantitative synthesis after eligibility screening. Approximately 80% of all included study participants for MR studies on CAD were of European descent irrespective of the exposure of interest, while no study included individuals of African ancestry. We found no evidence of differences in terms of direction of causation between ancestry groups; however, the strength of the respective relationships between each exposure and CAD were different, with this finding most evident when blood pressure was the exposure of interest.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this review suggest that patterns regarding the causational relationship between modifiable risk factors and CAD do not differ in terms of direction when compared across diverse ancestry populations. Differences in the observed strengths of the respective relationships however are indicative of the value of increasing representation in non-European populations, as novel genetic pathways or functional SNPs relating to CAD may be uncovered through a more global analysis.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The protocol for this systematic review was registered to the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) and is publicly available online (CRD42021272726).

Disentangling Dual Threats: Premature Coronary Artery Disease and Early-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in South Asians

South Asian individuals (SAs) face heightened risks of premature coronary artery disease (CAD) and early-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), with grave health, societal, and economic implications due to the region's dense population. Both conditions, influenced by cardiometabolic risk factors such as insulin resistance, hypertension, and central adiposity, manifest earlier and with unique thresholds in SAs. Epidemiological, demographic, nutritional, environmental, sociocultural, and economic transitions in SA have exacerbated the twin epidemic. The coupling of premature CAD and T2DM arises from increased obesity due to limited adipose storage, early-life undernutrition, distinct fat thresholds, reduced muscle mass, and a predisposition for hepatic fat accumulation from certain dietary choices cumulatively precipitating a decline in insulin sensitivity. As T2DM ensues, the β-cell adaptive responses are suboptimal, precipitating a transition from compensatory hyperinsulinemia to β-cell decompensation, underscoring a reduced functional β-cell reserve in SAs. This review delves into the interplay of these mechanisms and highlights a prediabetes endotype tied to elevated vascular risk. Deciphering these mechanistic interconnections promises to refine stratification paradigms, surpassing extant risk-prediction strategies.

Associations of cardiometabolic polygenic risk scores with cardiovascular disease in African Americans

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a complex disease, and genetic factors contribute individually or cumulatively to CVD risk. While African American women and men are disproportionately affected by CVD, their lack of representation in genomic investigations may widen disparities in health. We investigated the associations of cardiometabolic polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with CVD risk in African Americans.

Methods

We used the Jackson Heart Study, a prospective cohort study of CVD in African American adults and the predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) 10-year risk. We included 40-79 years old adults without a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke at baseline. We derived genome-wide PRSs for systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), triglycerides, and C-reactive protein (CRP) separately for each of the participants, using African-origin UK Biobank participants' genome-wide association summary statistics. We estimated the associations between PRSs and 10-year predicted ASCVD risk adjusting for age, sex, study visit date, and genetic ancestry using linear and logistic regression models.

Results

Participants (n=2,077) were 63% female and 66% never-smokers. They had mean (SD) 56 (10) years of age, 127.8 (16.3) mmHg SBP, 76.3 (8.7) mmHg DBP, 200.4 (40.2) mg/dL total cholesterol, 51.7 (14.7) mg/dL HDL cholesterol, 127.2 (36.7) mg/dL LDL cholesterol, 6.0 (1.3) mmol/mol HbA1c, 108.9 (81.7) mg/dL triglycerides and 0.53 (1.1) CRP. Their median (interquartile range) predicted 10-year predicted ASCVD risk was 8.0 (4.0-15.0). Participants in the >75th percentile for HbA1c PRS had 1.42 percentage-point greater predicted 10-year ASCVD risk (1.42 [95% CI: 0.58-2.26]) and higher odds of ≥10% predicted 10-year ASCVD risk (OR: 1.46 [95% CI: 1.03-2.07]) compared with those in the <25th percentile for HbA1c PRS. Participants in the >75th percentile for SBP PRS had higher odds of ≥10% predicted 10-year ASCVD risk (OR: 1.52 [95% CI: 1.07-2.15]) compared with those in the <25th percentile for SBP PRS.

Conclusion

Among 40-79 years old African Americans without CHD and stroke, higher PRSs for HbA1c and SBP were associated with CVD risk. PRSs may help stratify individuals based on their clinical risk factors for CVD early prevention and clinical management.

Individual or familial diabetes in relation to eight cardiovascular diseases: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Diabetes is associated with increased risk of certain cardiovascular diseases, yet the causality remains to be determined. Meanwhile, given that first-degree relatives share 50% of genes, the effect of familial diabetes is also worthy of attention. Therefore, we sought to investigate the causal relations of individual or familial diabetes with eight cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial infarction, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, cardiac death, pulmonary embolism, transient ischemic attack, and ischemic stroke.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Applying two-sample Mendelian randomization, we selected instruments for genetic predisposition to individual or familial diabetes based on published genome-wide association studies. The primary analyses were conducted using the random-effects inverse-variance weighted method. We found that genetically predicted individual diabetes was causally associated with higher risks of myocardial infarction (odd ratio [OR] = 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.13; P < 0.0001), hypertension (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03-1.13; P = 0.0006), and ischemic stroke (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15; P < 0.0001). Genetically predicted paternal diabetes could increase the risk of ischemic stroke (OR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.04-1.30; P = 0.0061). Genetically predicted maternal diabetes could increase the risk of myocardial infarction (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.09-1.29; P = 0.0001). Genetically predicted siblings' diabetes was causally associated with higher risks of myocardial infarction (OR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.27; P = 0.0001) and hypertension (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.06-1.34; P = 0.0036). No significant differences were observed in other outcomes.

CONCLUSION

This study supports causal effects of not only individual but also familial diabetes on the development of cardiovascular diseases, which will help realize the potential effect of family history in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

Associations between types and sources of dietary carbohydrates and cardiovascular disease risk: a prospective cohort study of UK Biobank participants

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have reported that the associations between dietary carbohydrates and cardiovascular disease (CVD) may depend on the quality, rather than the quantity, of carbohydrates consumed. This study aimed to assess the associations between types and sources of dietary carbohydrates and CVD incidence. A secondary aim was to examine the associations of carbohydrate intakes with triglycerides within lipoprotein subclasses.

METHODS

A total of 110,497 UK Biobank participants with ≥ two (maximum five) 24-h dietary assessments who were free from CVD and diabetes at baseline were included. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions were used to estimate risks of incident total CVD (4188 cases), ischaemic heart disease (IHD; 3138) and stroke (1124) by carbohydrate intakes over a median follow-up time of 9.4 years, and the effect of modelled dietary substitutions. The associations of carbohydrate intakes with plasma triglycerides within lipoprotein subclasses as measured by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy were examined in 26,095 participants with baseline NMR spectroscopy measurements.

RESULTS

Total carbohydrate intake was not associated with CVD outcomes. Free sugar intake was positively associated with total CVD (HR; 95% CI per 5% of energy, 1.07;1.03-1.10), IHD (1.06;1.02-1.10), and stroke (1.10;1.04-1.17). Fibre intake was inversely associated with total CVD (HR; 95% CI per 5 g/d, 0.96;0.93-0.99). Modelled isoenergetic substitution of 5% of energy from refined grain starch with wholegrain starch was inversely associated with total CVD (0.94;0.91-0.98) and IHD (0.94;0.90-0.98), and substitution of free sugars with non-free sugars was inversely associated with total CVD (0.95;0.92-0.98) and stroke (0.91;0.86-0.97). Free sugar intake was positively associated with triglycerides within all lipoproteins.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher free sugar intake was associated with higher CVD incidence and higher triglyceride concentrations within all lipoproteins. Higher fibre intake and replacement of refined grain starch and free sugars with wholegrain starch and non-free sugars, respectively, may be protective for incident CVD.

Causal associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and cardiovascular outcomes: a Mendelian randomization study

CONTEXT

Whether diabetes diagnosed at different age groups is causally associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses to investigate the causal associations of diabetes by age at diagnosis with five type-specific CVDs and 11 cardiometabolic traits.

METHODS

We selected 208 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for diabetes and 3, 21, 57, and 14 SNPs for diabetes diagnosed at <50, 50-60, 60-70, and >70 years, respectively, based on the GWAS (24,986 cases/187,130 controls) in the UK Biobank, and extracted genetic associations with stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and CVD mortality, as well as blood pressures, adiposity measurements, and lipids and apolipoproteins from corresponding European-descent GWASs. The inverse-variance weighted method was used as main analysis with several sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Diabetes diagnosed at all four age groups was causally associated with increased risks of stroke (5%-8%) and myocardial infarction (8%-10%), higher systolic blood pressure (0.56-0.94 mmHg) and waist-to-hip ratio (0.003-0.004), and lower body mass index (0.31-0.42 kg/m2), waist circumference (0.68-0.99 cm), and hip circumference (0.57-0.80 cm). Diabetes diagnosed at specific age groups was causally associated with increased risks of heart failure (4%) and CVD mortality (8%), higher diastolic blood pressure (0.20 mmHg) and triglycerides (0.06 SD), and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.02 mmol/L). The effect sizes of genetically determined diabetes on CVD subtypes and cardiometabolic traits were comparable and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals largely overlapped across the four age groups.

CONCLUSION

Our findings provide novel evidence that genetically determined diabetes subgroups by age at diagnosis have similar causal effects on CVD and cardiometabolic risks.

Causal effects of genetically predicted type 2 diabetes mellitus on blood lipid profiles and concentration of particle-size-determined lipoprotein subclasses: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Background

Observational studies have shown inconsistent results of the associations between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and blood lipid profiles, while there is also a lack of evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the causal effects of T2DM on blood lipid profiles and lipoprotein subclasses.

Objectives

Our study aimed at investigating the causal effects of T2DM on blood lipid profiles and concentration of particle-size-determined lipoprotein subclasses by using the two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) method.

Methods

We obtained genetic variants for T2DM and blood lipid profiles including high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG), and total cholesterol (TC) from international genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Two-sample MR method was applied to explore the potential causal effects of genetically predicted T2DM on blood lipid profiles based on different databases, respectively, and results from each MR analysis were further meta-analyzed to obtain the summary results. The causal effects of genetically predicted T2DM on the concentration of different subclasses of lipoproteins that are determined by particle size were also involved in MR analysis.

Results

Genetically predicted 1-unit higher log odds of T2DM had a significant causal effect on a higher level of TG (estimated β coefficient: 0.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.00 to 0.06) and lower level of HDL-C (estimated β coefficient: −0.09, 95% CI: −0.11 to −0.06). The causality of T2DM on the level of TC or LDL-C was not found (estimated β coefficient: −0.01, 95% CI: −0.02 to 0.01 for TC and estimated β coefficient: 0.01, 95% CI: −0.01 to 0.02 for LDL-C). For different sizes of lipoprotein particles, 1-unit higher log odds of T2DM was causally associated with higher level of small LDL particles, and lower level of medium HDL particles, large HDL particles, and very large HDL particles.

Conclusion

Evidence from our present study showed causal effects of T2DM on the level of TG, HDL-C, and concentration of different particle sizes of lipoprotein subclasses comprehensively, which might be particularly helpful in illustrating dyslipidemia experienced by patients with T2DM, and further indicate new treatment targets for these patients to prevent subsequent excessive cardiovascular events from a genetic point of view.

Associations between polygenic risk of coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes, lifestyle, and cardiovascular mortality: A prospective UK Biobank study

Background

Previous studies primarily targeted the ability of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) to predict a specific disease, and only a few studies have investigated the association between genetic risk scores and cardiovascular (CV) mortality. We assessed PRSs for coronary artery disease (CAD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) as the predictive factors for CV mortality, independent of traditional risk factors, and further investigated the additive effect between lifestyle behavior and PRS on CV mortality.

Methods

We used genetic and phenotypic data from UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years at baseline, collected with standardized procedures. Genome-wide PRSs were constructed using >6 million genetic variants. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze the relationship between PRS and CV mortality with stratification by age, sex, disease status, and lifestyle behavior.

Results

Of 377,909 UK Biobank participants having European ancestry, 3,210 (0.8%) died due to CV disease during a median follow-up of 8.9 years. CV mortality risk was significantly associated with CAD PRS [low vs. very high genetic risk groups, CAD PRS hazard ratio (HR) 2.61 (2.02-3.36)] and T2DM PRS [HR 2.08 (1.58-2.73)], respectively. These relationships remained significant even after an adjustment for a comprehensive range of demographic and clinical factors. In the very high genetic risk group, adherence to an unfavorable lifestyle was further associated with a substantially increased risk of CV mortality [favorable vs. unfavorable lifestyle with very high genetic risk for CAD PRS, HR 8.31 (5.12-13.49); T2DM PRS, HR 5.84 (3.39-10.04)]. Across all genetic risk groups, 32.1% of CV mortality was attributable to lifestyle behavior [population attributable fraction (PAF) 32.1% (95% CI 28.8-35.3%)] and 14.1% was attributable to smoking [PAF 14.1% (95% CI 12.4-15.7%)]. There was no evidence of significant interaction between PRSs and age, sex, or lifestyle behavior in predicting the risk of CV mortality.

Conclusion

PRSs for CAD or T2DM and lifestyle behaviors are the independent predictive factors for future CV mortality in the white, middle-aged population. PRS-based risk assessment could be useful to identify the individuals who need intensive behavioral or therapeutic interventions to reduce the risk of CV mortality.

Polygenic risk for type 2 diabetes, lifestyle, metabolic health, and cardiovascular disease: a prospective UK Biobank study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined associations between genetic risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D), lifestyle, clinical risk factors, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to investigate the association of and potential interactions among genetic risk for T2D, lifestyle behavior, and metabolic risk factors with CVD.

METHODS

A total of 345,217 unrelated participants of white British descent were included in analyses. Genetic risk for T2D was estimated as a genome-wide polygenic risk score constructed from > 6 million genetic variants. A favorable lifestyle was defined in terms of four modifiable lifestyle components, and metabolic health status was determined according to the presence of metabolic syndrome components.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 21,865 CVD cases (6.3%) were identified. Compared with the low genetic risk group, participants at high genetic risk for T2D had higher rates of overall CVD events, CVD subtypes (coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation/flutter), and CVD mortality. Individuals at very high genetic risk for T2D had a 35% higher risk of CVD than those with low genetic risk (HR 1.35 [95% CI 1.19 to 1.53]). A significant gradient of increased CVD risk was observed across genetic risk, lifestyle, and metabolic health status (P for trend > 0.001). Those with favorable lifestyle and metabolically healthy status had significantly reduced risk of CVD events regardless of T2D genetic risk. This risk reduction was more apparent in young participants (≤ 50 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic risk for T2D was associated with increased risks of overall CVD, various CVD subtypes, and fatal CVD. Engaging in a healthy lifestyle and maintaining metabolic health may reduce subsequent risk of CVD regardless of genetic risk for T2D.

Mendelian randomization analysis of 37 clinical factors and coronary artery disease in East Asian and European populations

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide despite enormous efforts devoted to its prevention and treatment. While many genetic loci have been identified to associate with CAD, the intermediate causal risk factors and etiology have not been fully understood. This study assesses the causal effects of 37 heritable clinical factors on CAD in East Asian and European populations.

METHODS

We collected genome-wide association summary statistics of 37 clinical factors from the Biobank Japan (42,793 to 191,764 participants) and the UK Biobank (314,658 to 442,817 participants), paired with summary statistics of CAD from East Asians (29,319 cases and 183,134 controls) and Europeans (91,753 cases and 311,344 controls). These clinical factors covered 12 cardiometabolic traits, 13 hematological indices, 7 hepatological and 3 renal function indices, and 2 serum electrolyte indices. We performed univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses in East Asians and Europeans separately, followed by meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Univariable MR analyses identified reliable causal evidence (P < 0.05/37) of 10 cardiometabolic traits (height, body mass index [BMI], blood pressure, glycemic and lipid traits) and 4 other clinical factors related to red blood cells (red blood cell count [RBC], hemoglobin, hematocrit) and uric acid (UA). Interestingly, while generally consistent, we identified population heterogeneity in the causal effects of BMI and UA, with higher effect sizes in East Asians than those in Europeans. After adjusting for cardiometabolic factors in multivariable MR analysis, red blood cell traits (RBC, meta-analysis odds ratio 1.07 per standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.13; hemoglobin, 1.10, 1.03-1.16; hematocrit, 1.10, 1.04-1.17) remained significant (P < 0.05), while UA showed an independent causal effect in East Asians only (1.12, 1.06-1.19, P = 3.26×10^-5).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the causal effects of 10 cardiometabolic traits on CAD and identified causal risk effects of RBC, hemoglobin, hematocrit, and UA independent of traditional cardiometabolic factors. We found no causal effects for 23 clinical factors, despite their reported epidemiological associations. Our findings suggest the physiology of red blood cells and the level of UA as potential intervention targets for the prevention of CAD.

Genetic liability for prescription opioid use and risk of cardiovascular diseases: a multivariable Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Observational studies have yielded conflicting results on the association of prescription opioid use (POU) with the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Residual confounding and potential reverse causality are inevitable in such conventional observational studies. This study used Mendelian randomization (MR) design to estimate the causal effect of POU on the risk of CVD, including coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke (IS), as well as their common risk factors.

DESIGN

We estimated the causal effect of genetic liability for POU on CVD in a two-sample MR framework. Complementary sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of our results.

SETTING

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that were based on predominantly European ancestry.

PARTICIPANTS

The sample sizes of the GWAS used in this study ranged from 69 033 to 757 601 participants.

MEASUREMENTS

Genetic variants predictive of the POU and their corresponding summary-level information in the outcomes were retrieved and extracted from the respective GWAS.

FINDINGS

Using univariable MR, we found evidence for a causal effect of genetic liability for POU on an increased risk of CHD [odds ratio (OR) = 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-1.16; P = 0.008] and MI (OR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.04-1.22; P = 0.002). In multivariable MR, the association remained after accounting for comorbid pain conditions, but was attenuated with adjustment for potential mediators, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and type 2 diabetes (T2D).

CONCLUSION

Mendelian randomization estimates provide robust evidence for the causal effects of genetic liability for prescription opioid use on an increased risk of coronary heart disease and myocardial infarction, which might be mediated by obesity-related traits.

GLUT4 gene rs5418 polymorphism is associated with increased coronary heart disease risk in a Uygur Chinese population

Background

To explore possible associations between glucose transporter 4 (GLUT4) genetic polymorphisms in the patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) in Han and Uygur Chinese populations in Xinjiang, China.

Methods

Two GLUT4 polymorphisms (rs5418 and rs5435) were genotyped in 1262 Han (628 CHD patients and 634 healthy controls) and 896 Uyghur (397 CHD patients and 499 healthy controls) Chinese populations.

Results

In the Han Chinese population, there were no significant differences in allelic or genotypic distribution of rs5418 and rs5435 between the CHD and control groups (all P > 0.05). However, in the Uygur population, there were significant differences in genotype and allele distributions for rs5418 between CHD and the control group (all P < 0.05). Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that carriers with the rs5418 A allele had a higher risk of CHD compared to carriers of the rs5418 G allele (OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.069–1.649, P = 0.01), after adjustment for gender, age, drinking and smoking behavior, hypertension and diabetes. Furthermore, haploid association analysis of the two SNP loci of the GLUT4 gene showed that the AC haplotype was associated with CHD in the Uygur population (P = 0.001598; OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.1228–1.6406).

Conclusions

rs5418 GLUT4 gene variants are associated with CHD in the Uygur Chinese population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-022-02630-9.

Causal Association of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Glycemic Traits With Cardiovascular Diseases and Lipid Traits: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Objective

We aimed to evaluate the causal effect of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and glycemic traits on the risk of a wide range of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and lipid traits using Mendelian randomization (MR).

Methods

Genetic variants associated with T2DM, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and hemoglobin A1c were selected as instrumental variables to perform both univariable and multivariable MR analyses.

Results

In univariable MR, genetically predicted T2DM was associated with higher odds of peripheral artery disease (pooled odds ratio (OR) =1.207, 95% CI: 1.162-1.254), myocardial infarction (OR =1.132, 95% CI: 1.104-1.160), ischemic heart disease (OR =1.129, 95% CI: 1.105-1.154), heart failure (OR =1.050, 95% CI: 1.029-1.072), stroke (OR =1.087, 95% CI: 1.068-1.107), ischemic stroke (OR =1.080, 95% CI: 1.059-1.102), essential hypertension (OR =1.013, 95% CI: 1.010-1.015), coronary atherosclerosis (OR =1.005, 95% CI: 1.004-1.007), and major coronary heart disease event (OR =1.003, 95% CI: 1.002-1.004). Additionally, T2DM was causally related to lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR =0.965, 95% CI: 0.958-0.973) and apolipoprotein A (OR =0.982, 95% CI: 0.977-0.987) but a higher level of triglycerides (OR =1.060, 95% CI: 1.036-1.084). Moreover, causal effect of glycemic traits on CVDs and lipid traits were also observed. Finally, most results of univariable MR were supported by multivariable MR.

Conclusion

We provided evidence for the causal effects of T2DM and glycemic traits on the risk of CVDs and dyslipidemia. Further investigations to elucidate the underlying mechanisms are warranted.

The relationships between FLAIS, a novel insulin sensitivity index, and cardiovascular risk factors in a population-based study

Background

Insulin resistance is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Recently, we have developed a novel index, FLAIS (Fasting Laboratory Assessment of Insulin Sensitivity), which accurately reflects insulin sensitivity, measured with hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp, in different groups of subjects. The aim of the present study was to assess the relationship of FLAIS with cardiovascular risk factors in a population-based study.

Methods

The study group comprised 339 individuals from the ongoing Białystok Plus study, without previously known diabetes. Clinical examination, oral glucose tolerance test and the measurement of blood laboratory parameters were performed.

Results

Prediabetes (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance) was diagnosed in 165 individuals whereas type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 19 subjects. FLAIS was lower in individuals with prediabetes and diabetes in comparison with individuals with normal glucose tolerance. FLAIS was significantly related to waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol in the entire study group and in the subgroups with normal glucose tolerance and with prediabetes/diabetes. HOMA-IR, QUICKI and Matsuda index were not related to blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol in individuals with normal glucose tolerance. Majority of the adjusted models with FLAIS were characterized by better fit with the data in comparison with other indices for all cardiovascular risk factors except waist circumference.

Conclusions

FLAIS represents useful index to assess the cluster of insulin resistance-associated cardiovascular risk factors in general population.

Genetic Predisposition to Diabetes and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Two Stage Mendelian Randomisation Study

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies demonstrate an inverse association between type II diabetes and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for reasons that are unclear. The aim of this study was to clarify the causal association between type II diabetes predisposition and AAA using Mendelian randomisation.

METHODS

Effect estimates for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diabetes were obtained from the DIAbetes Meta-ANalysis of Trans-Ethnic association studies (DIAMANTE) consortium to construct a genetic instrumental variable. Corresponding effect estimates for associations of these SNPs with AAA were obtained from the International Aneurysm Consortium comprising six separate AAA genomewide association studies (4 972 cases and 99 858 controls). Mendelian randomisation estimates were calculated using inverse variance, weighted median, and MR-Egger methods, and compared against recently published observational estimates.

RESULTS

A genetic risk score was constructed from 206 SNPs associated with diabetes. All three Mendelian randomisation models showed no effect of genetic liability to diabetes and risk of AAA (inverse variance: odds ratio 1.04 per unit higher log odds, 95% 0.98 - 1.11, p = .19; MR-Egger slope p = .33; weighted median p = .50). Results were similar after excluding the TCF7L2 locus (inverse variance p = .075). Findings from the Mendelian randomisation analysis differed from previous observational reports of an inverse association (pdif < .001).

CONCLUSION

Lifelong genetic predisposition to diabetes does not appear to protect against AAA. These findings differ from traditional epidemiological studies showing an inverse association between diabetes and AAA, for reasons that remain unclear.

Roles of Cardiometabolic Factors in Mediating the Causal Effect of Type 2 Diabetes on Cardiovascular Diseases: A Two-Step, Two-Sample Multivariable Mendelian Randomization Study

Objective

The objective of this study is to investigate the roles of cardiometabolic factors (including blood pressure, blood lipids, thyroid function, body mass, and insulin sensitivity) in mediating the causal effect of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes.

Design

Two-step, two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) study.

Setting

International genome-wide association study (GWAS) consortia data.

Exposure

Type 2 diabetes, blood pressure: systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP); blood lipids: low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG); thyroid function: hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism; body mass index (BMI), waist-hip-ratio (WHR), and insulin sensitivity.

Main Outcomes

Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke.

Methods

Summary-level data for exposures and main outcomes were extracted from GWAS consortia. We used two-sample MR to illustrate the causal effect of T2DM on CVD subtypes and regression-based MVMR to quantify the possible mediation effects of cardiometabolic factors on CVD.

Results

Each additional unit of log odds of T2DM increased 16% risk of CHD [odds ratio (OR): 1.16, 95% CI: 1.12–1.21], 15% risk of myocardial infarction (MI) (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10–1.20), and 10% risk of stroke (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06–1.13). In mediation analysis, SBP, DBP, and TG were found as main mediators, while the mediation effects of other cardiometabolic factors were not significant. The proportion of total effect of T2DM on CHD mediated by SBP, DBP, and TG was 16% (95% CI: 8–24%), 7% (95% CI: 1–13%) and 10% (95% CI: 2–18%), respectively. Mediation effect of SBP and DBP on MI and stroke, TG on MI was also prominent, while mediation effect of TG on stroke was not significant. The combined mediation effect of all the three mediators accounted for 29%, 26%, and 13% of the total effect of T2DM on CHD, MI, and stroke, respectively.

Conclusion

Systolic blood pressure, DBP, and TG mediate a substantial proportion of the causal effect of T2DM on CVD and thus interventions on these factors might reduce the considerable excess risk of CVD among patients with T2DM.

Robust estimates of heritable coronary disease risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is an important heritable risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD), the risk of both diseases being increased by metabolic syndrome (MS). With the availability of large-scale genome-wide association data, we aimed to elucidate the genetic burden of CAD risk in T2D predisposed individuals within the context of MS and their shared genetic architecture. Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses supported a causal relationship between T2D and CAD [odds ratio (OR) = 1.13 per log-odds unit 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.16; p = 1.59 × 10-17 ]. Simultaneously adjusting MR analyses for the effects of the T2D instrument including blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and obesity attenuated the association between T2D and CAD (OR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11). Bayesian locus-overlap analysis identified 44 regions with the same causal variant underlying T2D and CAD genetic signals (FDR < 1%) at a posterior probability >0.7; five (MHC, LPL, ABO, RAI1 and MC4R) of these regions contain genome-wide significant (p < 5 × 10-8 ) associations for both traits. Given the small effect sizes observed in genome-wide association studies for complex diseases, even with 44 potential target regions, this has implications for the likely magnitude of CAD risk reduction that might be achievable by pure T2D therapies.

Novel Laboratory Index, Based on Fasting Blood Parameters, Accurately Reflects Insulin Sensitivity

CONTEXT

Simple and reliable measurement of insulin sensitivity may be important for the prevention of insulin-resistance-related diseases. Surrogate indices of insulin sensitivity are of limited utility in population without signs of metabolic syndrome.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of our study was to provide simple and accurate index of insulin sensitivity.

DESIGN

The study group comprised 150 young healthy participants. Hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp was performed. Regression models with different laboratory parameters were constructed. Validation cohort 1 comprised independent group of 110 subjects, including individuals with prediabetes and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Validation cohort 2 comprised 38 obese subjects before and after diet-induced weight loss. Validation cohort 3 comprised 60 nondiabetic subjects from an independent center.

RESULTS

The supervised principal component model established optimal set of variables correlated with insulin sensitivity. This model (Fasting Laboratory Assessment of Insulin Sensitivity [FLAIS]) used red blood cell count, alanine aminotransferase activity, serum C-peptide, SHBG, IGF-binding protein 1, and adiponectin concentrations. FLAIS exhibited strong correlation with clamp-derived insulin sensitivity. The sensitivity of the model was 90% and the specificity was 68%. In validation cohort 1, differences in FLAIS among the groups paralleled those observed with the clamp, with the lowest values in prediabetes and diabetes. In validation cohort 2, FLAIS reflected the change in insulin sensitivity after weight loss. The main findings were confirmed in validation cohort 3.

CONCLUSION

We provide simple and accurate method of assessing insulin sensitivity, which allows to identify insulin resistance even in the population without overt metabolic disturbances.

Assessing the linear and non-linear association of HbA1c with cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomisation study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to evaluate whether genetically predicted HbA_1c has an effect on the risk of cardiovascular diseases and investigate the shape of the relationship of genetically predicted HbA_1c with cardiovascular diseases.

METHODS

We performed linear univariable, multivariable and non-linear Mendelian randomisation analyses in 373,571 white British participants (mean age 56.9) from the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

In univariable linear Mendelian randomisation analysis, a 1 mmol/mol increase in genetically predicted HbA_1c was associated with higher risk of coronary artery disease (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02, 1.05), stroke (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.05) and hypertension (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01, 1.03). Multivariable Mendelian randomisation adjusted for the effect of haemoglobin gave a consistent conclusion for coronary artery disease. The associations with stroke and hypertension were directionally similar but with wider CI overlapping the null. Non-linear Mendelian randomisation indicated that the shape of the effect of genetically predicted HbA_1c on cardiovascular outcomes was likely linear.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The study suggests a detrimental effect of HbA_1c on coronary artery disease in both men and women, and the effect is via a glycaemic characteristic. The shape of the genetic association of HbA_1c with these cardiovascular outcomes, in particular coronary artery disease, is likely to be linear.

The "Common Soil Hypothesis" Revisited-Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease

The prevalence and the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), representing >90% of all cases of diabetes, are increasing rapidly worldwide. Identification of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes is of great importance, as early interventions might delay or even prevent full-blown disease. T2D is a complex disease caused by multiple genetic variants in interaction with lifestyle and environmental factors. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the major cause of morbidity and mortality. Detailed understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying in CVD events is still largely missing. Several risk factors are shared between T2D and CVD, including obesity, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and hyperglycemia. CVD can precede the development of T2D, and T2D is a major risk factor for CVD, suggesting that both conditions have common genetic and environmental antecedents and that they share “common soil”. We analyzed the relationship between the risk factors for T2D and CVD based on genetics and population-based studies with emphasis on Mendelian randomization studies.

Current trends in epidemiology of cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk management in type 2 diabetes

With the advances in diabetes care, the trend of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been decreasing over past decades. However, given that CVD is still a major cause of death in patients with diabetes and that the risk of CVD in patients with T2DM is more than twice that in those without DM, there are still considerable challenges to the prevention of CVD in diabetes. Accordingly, there have been several research efforts to decrease cardiovascular (CV) risk in T2DM. Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and clinical cohort studies have investigated the effects of factors, such as genetic determinants, hypoglycaemia, and insulin resistance, on CVD and can account for the unexplained CV risk in T2DM. Lifestyle modification is a widely accepted cornerstone method to prevent CVD as the first-line strategy in T2DM. Recent reports from large CV outcome trials have proven the positive CV effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in patients with high CVD risk. Overall, current practice guidelines for the management of CVD in T2DM are moving from a glucocentric strategy to a more individualised patient-centred approach. This review will discuss the current epidemiologic trends of CVD in T2DM and the risk factors linking T2DM to CVD, including genetic contribution, hypoglycaemia, and insulin resistance, and proper care strategies, including lifestyle and therapeutic approaches.

Impact of risk factors for major cardiovascular diseases: a comparison of life-time observational and Mendelian randomisation findings

Background

This study compared the strength and causality of associations between major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the four major CVDs: myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Both a long-term follow-up in an observational cohort and Mendelian randomisation (MR) were used for this aim.

Methods

In the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men study, 2322 men, all aged 50 years, were assessed for CVD risk factors and then followed for four decades regarding incident CVDs. The two-sample MR part used public available Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) data.

Results

In multivariate analyses, systolic blood pressure was overall by far the most important risk factor, since it was related to all four CVDs, both in observational and MR analyses. Body mass index was the second most overall important risk factor, being linked to all four CVDs, except ischaemic stroke, both in observational and MR analyses. Smoking was an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke and heart failure, both in observational and MR analyses, while low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol mainly was related to myocardial infarction. Diabetes was mainly a causal risk factor for incident myocardial infarction and heart failure. Neither HDL-cholesterol nor triglycerides were of major importance as risk factors in these multivariable models.

Conclusion

By combining long-term observational data with genetic data, we show that the impact and causal role of specific established cardiovascular risk factors varies between different major CVDs. Systolic blood pressure was causally related to all four cardiovascular outcomes and was therefore, overall, the most important risk factor.

Type 2 Diabetes, Metabolic Traits, and Risk of Heart Failure: A Mendelian Randomization Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to use Mendelian randomization (MR) techniques to estimate the causal relationships between genetic liability to type 2 diabetes (T2D), glycemic traits, and risk of heart failure (HF).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Summary-level data were obtained from genome-wide association studies of T2D, insulin resistance (IR), glycated hemoglobin, fasting insulin and glucose, and HF. MR was conducted using the inverse-variance weighted method. Sensitivity analyses included the MR-Egger method, weighted median and mode methods, and multivariable MR conditioning on potential mediators.

RESULTS

Genetic liability to T2D was causally related to higher risk of HF (odds ratio [OR] 1.13 per 1-log unit higher risk of T2D; 95% CI 1.11-1.14; P < 0.001); however, sensitivity analysis revealed evidence of directional pleiotropy. The relationship between T2D and HF was attenuated when adjusted for coronary disease, BMI, LDL cholesterol, and blood pressure in multivariable MR. Genetically instrumented higher IR was associated with higher risk of HF (OR 1.19 per 1-log unit higher risk of IR; 95% CI 1.00-1.41; P = 0.041). There were no notable associations identified between fasting insulin, glucose, or glycated hemoglobin and risk of HF. Genetic liability to HF was causally linked to higher risk of T2D (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.01-2.19; P = 0.042), although again with evidence of pleiotropy.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest a possible causal role of T2D and IR in HF etiology, although the presence of both bidirectional effects and directional pleiotropy highlights potential sources of bias that must be considered.

Integrating genomics with biomarkers and therapeutic targets to invigorate cardiovascular drug development

Drug development in cardiovascular disease is stagnating, with lack of efficacy and adverse effects being barriers to innovation. Human genetics can provide compelling evidence of causation through approaches such as Mendelian randomization, with genetic support for causation increasing the probability of a clinical trial succeeding. Mendelian randomization applied to quantitative traits can identify risk factors for disease that are both causal and amenable to therapeutic modification. However, important differences exist between genetic investigations of a biomarker (such as HDL cholesterol) and a drug target aimed at modifying the same biomarker of interest (such as cholesteryl ester transfer protein), with implications for the methodology, interpretation and application of Mendelian randomization to drug development. Differences include the comparative nature of the genetic architecture - that is, biomarkers are typically polygenic, whereas protein drug targets are influenced by either cis-acting or trans-acting genetic variants - and the potential for drug targets to show disease associations that might differ from those of the biomarker that they are intended to modify (target-mediated pleiotropy). In this Review, we compare and contrast the use of Mendelian randomization to evaluate potential drug targets versus quantitative traits. We explain how genetic epidemiological studies can be used to assess the aetiological roles of biomarkers in disease and to prioritize drug targets, including designing their evaluation in clinical trials.

Sex Differences in the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease Associated With Type 2 Diabetes: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies have demonstrated that type 2 diabetes is a stronger risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) in women compared with men. However, it is not clear whether this reflects a sex differential in the causal effect of diabetes on CHD risk or results from sex-specific residual confounding.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using 270 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for type 2 diabetes identified in a type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study, we performed a sex-stratified Mendelian randomization (MR) study of type 2 diabetes and CHD using individual participant data in UK Biobank (251,420 women and 212,049 men). Weighted median, MR-Egger, MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier, and radial MR from summary-level analyses were used for pleiotropy assessment.

RESULTS

MR analyses showed that genetic risk of type 2 diabetes increased the odds of CHD for women (odds ratio 1.13 [95% CI 1.08-1.18] per 1-log unit increase in odds of type 2 diabetes) and men (1.21 [1.17-1.26] per 1-log unit increase in odds of type 2 diabetes). Sensitivity analyses showed some evidence of directional pleiotropy; however, results were similar after correction for outlier SNPs.

CONCLUSIONS

This MR analysis supports a causal effect of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes on risk of CHD that is not stronger for women than men. Assuming a lack of bias, these findings suggest that the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes for CHD risk reduction is of equal priority in both sexes.

Mendelian Randomization in Cardiovascular Research: Establishing Causality When There Are Unmeasured Confounders

Mendelian randomization is an epidemiological approach to making causal inferences using observational data. It makes use of the natural randomization that occurs in the generation of an individual's genetic makeup in a way that is analogous to the study design of a randomized controlled trial and uses instrumental variable analysis where the genetic variant(s) are the instrument (analogous to random allocation to treatment group in an randomized controlled trial). As with any instrumental variable, there are 3 assumptions that must be made about the genetic instrument: (1) it is associated (not necessarily causally) with the exposure (relevance condition); (2) it is associated with the outcome only through the exposure (exclusion restriction condition); and (3) it does not share a common cause with the outcome (ie, no confounders of the genetic instrument and outcome, independence condition). Using the example of type II diabetes and coronary artery disease, we demonstrate how the method may be used to investigate causality and discuss potential benefits and pitfalls. We conclude that although Mendelian randomization studies can usually not establish causality on their own, they may usefully contribute to the evidence base and increase our certainty about the effectiveness (or otherwise) of interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease.

Genetic Predisposition to Coronary Artery Disease in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is accelerated in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D).

METHODS

To test whether this reflects differential genetic influences on CAD risk in subjects with T2D, we performed a systematic assessment of genetic overlap between CAD and T2D in 66 643 subjects (27 708 with CAD and 24 259 with T2D). Variants showing apparent association with CAD in stratified analyses or evidence of interaction were evaluated in a further 117 787 subjects (16 694 with CAD and 11 537 with T2D).

RESULTS

None of the previously characterized CAD loci was found to have specific effects on CAD in T2D individuals, and a genome-wide interaction analysis found no new variants for CAD that could be considered T2D specific. When we considered the overall genetic correlations between CAD and its risk factors, we found no substantial differences in these relationships by T2D background.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found no evidence that the genetic architecture of CAD differs in those with T2D compared with those without T2D.

Effects of lifelong testosterone exposure on health and disease using Mendelian randomization

Testosterone products are prescribed to males for a variety of possible health benefits, but causal effects are unclear. Evidence from randomized trials are difficult to obtain, particularly regarding effects on long-term or rare outcomes. Mendelian randomization analyses were performed to infer phenome-wide effects of free testosterone on 461 outcomes in 161,268 males from the UK Biobank study. Lifelong increased free testosterone had beneficial effects on increased bone mineral density, and decreased body fat; adverse effects on decreased HDL, and increased risks of prostate cancer, androgenic alopecia, spinal stenosis, and hypertension; and context-dependent effects on increased hematocrit and decreased C-reactive protein. No benefit was observed for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular or cognitive outcomes. Mendelian randomization suggests benefits of long-term increased testosterone should be considered against adverse effects, notably increased prostate cancer and hypertension. Well-powered randomized trials are needed to conclusively address risks and benefits of testosterone treatment on these outcomes.

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and lifetime cannabis use: genetic overlap and causality

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a severely impairing neurodevelopmental disorder with a prevalence of 5% in children and adolescents and of 2.5% in adults. Comorbid conditions in ADHD play a key role in symptom progression, disorder course and outcome. ADHD is associated with a significantly increased risk for substance use, abuse and dependence. ADHD and cannabis use are partly determined by genetic factors; the heritability of ADHD is estimated at 70-80% and of cannabis use initiation at 40-48%. In this study, we used summary statistics from the largest available meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of ADHD (n = 53,293) and lifetime cannabis use (n = 32,330) to gain insights into the genetic overlap and causal relationship of these two traits. We estimated their genetic correlation to be r2 = 0.29 (P = 1.63 × 10-5) and identified four new genome-wide significant loci in a cross-trait analysis: two in a single variant association analysis (rs145108385, P = 3.30 × 10-8 and rs4259397, P = 4.52 × 10-8) and two in a gene-based association analysis (WDPCP, P = 9.67 × 10-7 and ZNF251, P = 1.62 × 10-6). Using a two-sample Mendelian randomization approach we found support that ADHD is causal for lifetime cannabis use, with an odds ratio of 7.9 for cannabis use in individuals with ADHD in comparison to individuals without ADHD (95% CI (3.72, 15.51), P = 5.88 × 10-5). These results substantiate the temporal relationship between ADHD and future cannabis use and reinforce the need to consider substance misuse in the context of ADHD in clinical interventions.

Effects of Epeleuton, a Novel Synthetic Second-Generation n-3 Fatty Acid, on Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, Triglycerides, Glycemic Control, and Cardiometabolic and Inflammatory Markers

Background

Epeleuton is 15‐hydroxy eicosapentaenoic acid ethyl ester, a second‐generation synthetic n‐3 fatty acid derivative of eicosapentaenoic acid. The primary objective was to assess the effect of epeleuton on markers of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with post hoc analyses of cardiometabolic markers.

Methods and Results

In a multicenter, randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled trial, 96 adults with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and body mass index 25 to 40 were randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive epeleuton 2 g/day, epeleuton 1 g/day, or placebo for 16 weeks. A total of 27% of patients had diabetes mellitus. Primary end points of changes in alanine aminotransferase and liver stiffness did not improve at week 16. Secondary and post hoc analyses investigated changes in cardiometabolic markers. Epeleuton 2 g/day significantly decreased triglycerides, very‐low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol without increasing low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol. Despite a low mean baseline hemoglobin A1C (HbA_1C; 6.3±1.3%), epeleuton 2 g/day significantly decreased HbA_1c (−0.4%; P=0.026). Among patients with baseline HbA_1c >6.5%, epeleuton 2 g/day decreased HbA_1c by 1.1% (P=0.047; n=26). Consistent dose‐dependent reductions were observed for fasting plasma glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance indices. Epeleuton 2 g/day decreased circulating markers of cardiovascular risk and endothelial dysfunction. Epeleuton was well tolerated, with a safety profile not different from placebo.

Conclusions

While epeleuton did not meet its primary end points on alanine aminotransferase or liver stiffness, it significantly decreased triglycerides, HbA_1C, plasma glucose, and inflammatory markers. These data suggest epeleuton may have potential for cardiovascular risk reduction and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease by simultaneously targeting hypertriglyceridemia, hyperglycemia, and systemic inflammation. Further trials are planned.

Registration

URL: https://www.clini​caltr​ials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02941549.

Atherosclerotic diseases and lung cancer - a ten-year cross-sectional study in Cyprus

Introduction

The main purpose of this work is to study atherosclerotic diseases and lung cancer in Cyprus during the period 2007–2017 with the aim of finding not only the atherosclerotic diseases with the highest risk but also a possible association between these diseases and lung cancer.

Material and methods

The statistical methods used to extract the results of this work are Student’s t-test and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), in order to check the statistical significance of atherosclerotic diseases with regard to the characteristics of the patients. Additionally, a multiple logistic regression analysis was used with the aim of finding the disease with the highest risk. Pearson’s r was used to find a possible association between atherosclerotic diseases and lung cancer.

Results

As specified by multiple logistic regression analysis, the atherosclerotic diseases with the highest risk of death are intracranial haemorrhage (OR = 17.3), heart failure (OR = 3.29), and stroke (OR = 3.02), with females having higher risk compared to men. Moreover, a statistically significant relation was found between heart failure and cerebral infarction with lung cancer.

Conclusions

The results of this work highlight the statistically significant characteristics of patients with atherosclerotic diseases and identify the risk of death according to the type of the disease. A link between these diseases and cancer was also identified.

Genetics Insights in the Relationship Between Type 2 Diabetes and Coronary Heart Disease

Diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). The major form of diabetes mellitus is type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), which is thus largely responsible for the CHD association in the general population. Recent years have seen major advances in the genetics of T2D, principally through ever-increasing large-scale genome-wide association studies. This article addresses the question of whether this expanding knowledge of the genomics of T2D provides insight into the etiologic relationship between T2D and CHD. We will investigate this relationship by reviewing the evidence for shared genetic loci between T2D and CHD; by examining the formal testing of this interaction (Mendelian randomization studies assessing whether T2D is causal for CHD); and then turn to the implications of this genetic relationship for therapies for CHD, for therapies for T2D, and for therapies that affect both. In conclusion, the growing knowledge of the genetic relationship between T2D and CHD is beginning to provide the promise for improved prevention and treatment of both disorders.

Causal associations of insulin resistance with coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke: a Mendelian randomization analysis

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between insulin resistance (IR) and cardiovascular diseases is unclear. We aimed to examine the causal associations of IR with cardiovascular diseases, including coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and its subtypes, using Mendelian randomization.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Due to low sample size for gold standard measures and in order to well reflect the underlying phenotype of IR, we used 53 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with IR phenotypes (ie, fasting insulin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides) from recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) as instrumental variables. Summary-level data from four GWASs of European individuals were used. Data on IR phenotypes were obtained from meta-analysis of GWASs of up to 188 577 individuals and data on the outcomes from GWASs of up to 446 696 individuals. Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates were calculated with inverse-variance weighted, simple and weighted-median approaches and MR-Egger regression was used to explore pleiotropy.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted 1-SD increase in IR phenotypes were associated with a substantial increase in risk of coronary artery disease (OR=1.79, 95% CI: 1.57 to 2.04, p<0.001), myocardial infarction (OR=1.78, 95% CI: 1.54 to 2.06, p<0.001), ischemic stroke (OR=1.21, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.40, p=0.007) and the small-artery occlusion subtype of stroke (OR=1.80, 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.49, p<0.001), but not associated with the large-artery atherosclerosis and cardioembolism subtypes of stroke. There was no evidence of pleiotropy. Results were broadly consistent in sensitivity analyses using simple and weighted-median approaches accounting for potential genetic pleiotropy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence to support that IR was causally associated with risk of coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and the small-artery occlusion subtype of stroke.

Metabolic Reprogramming of Macrophages in Atherosclerosis: Is It All about Cholesterol?

Hypercholesterolemia contributes to the chronic inflammatory response during the progression of atherosclerosis, in part by favoring cholesterol loading in macrophages and other immune cells. However, macrophages encounter a substantial amount of other lipids and nutrients after ingesting atherogenic lipoprotein particles or clearing apoptotic cells, increasing their metabolic load and impacting their behavior during atherosclerosis plaque progression. This review examines whether and how fatty acids and glucose shape the cellular metabolic reprogramming of macrophages in atherosclerosis to modulate the onset phase of inflammation and the later resolution stage, in which the balance is tipped toward tissue repair.

Classification of Type 2 Diabetes Genetic Variants and a Novel Genetic Risk Score Association With Insulin Clearance

CONTEXT

Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 450 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for type 2 diabetes (T2D).

OBJECTIVE

To facilitate use of these SNPs in future genetic risk score (GRS)-based analyses, we aimed to classify the SNPs based on physiology. We also sought to validate GRS associations with insulin-related traits in deeply phenotyped Mexican Americans.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 457 T2D SNPs from the literature were assigned physiologic function based on association studies and cluster analyses. All SNPs (All-GRS), beta-cell (BC-GRS), insulin resistance (IR-GRS), lipodystrophy (Lipo-GRS), and body mass index plus lipids (B + L-GRS) were evaluated for association with diabetes and indices of insulin secretion (from oral glucose tolerance test), insulin sensitivity and insulin clearance (from euglycemic clamp), and adiposity and lipid markers in 1587 Mexican Americans.

RESULTS

Of the 457 SNPs, 52 were classified as BC, 30 as IR, 12 as Lipo, 12 as B + L, whereas physiologic function of 351 was undefined. All-GRS was strongly associated with T2D. Among nondiabetic Mexican Americans, BC-GRS was associated with reduced insulinogenic index, IR-GRS was associated with reduced insulin sensitivity, and Lipo-GRS was associated with reduced adiposity. B + L-GRS was associated with increased insulin clearance. The latter did not replicate in an independent cohort wherein insulin clearance was assessed by a different method.

CONCLUSIONS

Supporting their utility, BC-GRS, IR-GRS, and Lipo-GRS, based on SNPs discovered largely in Europeans, exhibited expected associations in Mexican Americans. The novel association of B + L-GRS with insulin clearance suggests that impaired ability to reduce insulin clearance in compensation for IR may play a role in the pathogenesis of T2D. Whether this applies to other ethnic groups remains to be determined.

Benefits and limitations of genome-wide association studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) involve testing genetic variants across the genomes of many individuals to identify genotype-phenotype associations. GWAS have revolutionized the field of complex disease genetics over the past decade, providing numerous compelling associations for human complex traits and diseases. Despite clear successes in identifying novel disease susceptibility genes and biological pathways and in translating these findings into clinical care, GWAS have not been without controversy. Prominent criticisms include concerns that GWAS will eventually implicate the entire genome in disease predisposition and that most association signals reflect variants and genes with no direct biological relevance to disease. In this Review, we comprehensively assess the benefits and limitations of GWAS in human populations and discuss the relevance of performing more GWAS.

Genetic Predisposition to Type 2 Diabetes and Risk of Subclinical Atherosclerosis and Cardiovascular Diseases Among 160,000 Chinese Adults

In observational studies, type 2 diabetes is associated with two- to fourfold higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we examined associations of genetically predicted type 2 diabetes with CVD among ∼160,000 participants to assess whether these relationships are causal. A type 2 diabetes genetic risk score (comprising 48 established risk variants) was associated with the presence of carotid plaque (odds ratio 1.17 [95% CI 1.05, 1.29] per 1 unit higher log-odds of type 2 diabetes; n = 6,819) and elevated risk of ischemic stroke (IS) (1.08 [1.02, 1.14]; n = 17,097), nonlacunar IS (1.09 [1.03, 1.16]; n = 13,924), and major coronary event (1.12 [1.02, 1.23]; n = 5,081). There was no significant association with lacunar IS (1.03 [0.91, 1.16], n = 3,173) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) (1.01 [0.94, 1.10], n = 6,973), although effect estimates were imprecise. These associations were consistent with observational associations of type 2 diabetes with CVD in CKB (P for heterogeneity >0.3) and with the associations of type 2 diabetes with IS, ICH, and coronary heart disease in two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses based on summary statistics from European population genome-wide association studies (P for heterogeneity >0.2). In conclusion, among Chinese adults, genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes was associated with atherosclerotic CVD, consistent with a causal association.

Genome-wide association studies of structural birth defects: A review and commentary

BACKGROUND

While there is strong evidence that genetic risk factors play an important role in the etiologies of structural birth defects, compared to other diseases, there have been relatively few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of these conditions. We reviewed the current landscape of GWAS conducted for birth defects, noting novel insights, and future directions.

METHODS

This article reviews the literature with regard to GWAS of structural birth defects. Key defects included in this review include oral clefts, congenital heart defects (CHDs), biliary atresia, pyloric stenosis, hypospadias, craniosynostosis, and clubfoot. Additionally, other issues related to GWAS are considered, including the assessment of polygenic risk scores and issues related to genetic ancestry, as well as utilizing genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism array data to evaluate gene-environment interactions and Mendelian randomization.

RESULTS

For some birth defects, including oral clefts and CHDs, several novel susceptibility loci have been identified and replicated through GWAS, including 8q24 for oral clefts, DGKK for hypospadias, and 4p16 for CHDs. Relatively common birth defects for which there are currently no published GWAS include neural tube defects, anotia/microtia, anophthalmia/microphthalmia, gastroschisis, and omphalocele.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, GWAS have been successful in identifying several novel susceptibility genes and genomic regions for structural birth defects. These findings have provided new insights into the etiologies of these phenotypes. However, GWAS have been underutilized for understanding the genetic etiologies of several birth defects.

Icariin reduces high glucose-induced endothelial progenitor cell dysfunction via inhibiting the p38/CREB pathway and activating the Akt/eNOS/NO pathway

High glucose (HG) impairs endothelial progenitor cell (EPC) function. The activation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase and the inhibition of the Akt/eNOS/NO pathway serve central roles in this process. Icariin has protective effects in endothelial cells. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of icariin on HG-induced EPC dysfunction, including proliferation, migration and tube formation. Experiments were performed with EPCs isolated from the femurs and tibias of Sprague-Dawley rats in vitro. In a dose-dependent manner, icariin reversed the inhibition of EPC proliferation induced by HG treatment, and the maximal effective concentration of icariin was 1 µM [Fold change (FC):0.90±0.07, P=0.0124 vs. HG group]. The impaired EPC migration and tube formation induced by glucose was partially restored by 1 µM icariin treatment (FC: 0.81±0.08, P=0.0148 vs. HG group for migration; 0.82±0.03, P=0.0214 vs. HG group for tube formation). Furthermore, icariin significantly suppressed HG-induced p38 and cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) phosphorylation in EPCs (FC: 1.84±0.21, P=0.0238 vs. HG group for p38; FC: 2.24±0.15, P=0.0068 vs. HG group for CREB). Increased Akt and endothelial nitric oxide (NO) synthase (eNOS) activation was also observed after icariin treatment (FC: 0.64±0.08, P=0.0047 vs. HG group for Akt; FC:0.53±0.05, P=0.0019 vs. HG group for eNOS), which was followed by increased NO production (FC: 0.69±0.06, P=0.0064 vs. HG group). In conclusion, icariin attenuated HG-induced EPC dysfunction, which may be partially attributed to the inhibition of the p38/CREB pathway and the activation of the Akt/eNOS/NO pathway. Icariin may be a therapeutic candidate for improving the function of EPC.

Genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes is associated with severity of coronary artery disease in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Background

Accumulating evidence has shown that type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary artery disease (CAD) may stem from a ‘common soil’. The aim of our study was to examine the association between genetic predisposition to T2D and the risk of severe CAD among patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) undergoing angiography.

Methods

The current case–control study included 1414 ACS patients with at least one major epicardial vessel stenosis > 50% enrolled in the ACS Genetic Study. The severity of CAD was quantified by the number of coronary arteries involved. Genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated using 41 common variants that robustly associated with increased risk of T2D in East Asians. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between GRS and the severity of CAD.

Results

In the age-, sex- and BMI-adjusted model, each additional risk allele was associated with a 6% increased risk of multi-vessel disease (OR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.09). The OR was 1.43 (95% CI 1.08–1.89) for the risk of severe CAD when comparing the extreme tertiles of T2D-GRS. The association was not reduced after further adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Additional adjustment for T2D status in our regression model attenuated the association by approximately one quarter. In subgroup analysis, the strengths of the associations between GRS and the severity of CAD were broadly similar in terms of baseline demographic information and disease characteristics.

Conclusions

Our data indicated that genetic predisposition to T2D is associated with elevated risk of severe CAD. This association revealed a possible causal relationship and is partially mediated through diabetic status.

From genome-wide association studies to Mendelian randomization: novel opportunities for understanding cardiovascular disease causality, pathogenesis, prevention, and treatment

The Mendelian randomization approach is an epidemiological study design incorporating genetic information into traditional epidemiological studies to infer causality of biomarkers, risk factors, or lifestyle factors on disease risk. Mendelian randomization studies often draw on novel information generated in genome-wide association studies on causal associations between genetic variants and a risk factor or lifestyle factor. Such information can then be used in a largely unconfounded study design free of reverse causation to understand if and how risk factors and lifestyle factors cause cardiovascular disease. If causation is demonstrated, an opportunity for prevention of disease is identified; importantly however, before prevention or treatment can be implemented, randomized intervention trials altering risk factor levels or improving deleterious lifestyle factors needs to document reductions in cardiovascular disease in a safe and side-effect sparse manner. Documentation of causality can also inform on potential drug targets, more likely to be successful than prior approaches often relying on animal or cell studies mainly. The present review summarizes the history and background of Mendelian randomization, the study design, assumptions for using the design, and the most common caveats, followed by a discussion on advantages and disadvantages of different types of Mendelian randomization studies using one or more samples and different levels of information on study participants. The review also provides an overview of results on many of the risk factors and lifestyle factors for cardiovascular disease examined to date using the Mendelian randomization study design.

Mendelian Randomization Analysis of Hemoglobin A1c as a Risk Factor for Coronary Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies show that higher hemoglobin A1c (A1C) predicts coronary artery disease (CAD). It remains unclear whether this association is driven entirely by glycemia. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to test whether A1C is causally associated with CAD through glycemic and/or nonglycemic factors.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

To examine the association of A1C with CAD, we selected 50 A1C-associated variants (log10 Bayes factor ≥6) from an A1C genome-wide association study (GWAS; n = 159,940) and performed an inverse-variance weighted average of variant-specific causal estimates from CAD GWAS data (CARDIoGRAMplusC4D; 60,801 CAD case subjects/123,504 control subjects). We then replicated results in UK Biobank (18,915 CAD case subjects/455,971 control subjects) and meta-analyzed all results. Next, we conducted analyses using two subsets of variants, 16 variants associated with glycemic measures (fasting or 2-h glucose) and 20 variants associated with erythrocyte indices (e.g., hemoglobin [Hb]) but not glycemic measures. In additional MR analyses, we tested the association of Hb with A1C and CAD.

RESULTS

Genetically increased A1C was associated with higher CAD risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.61 [95% CI 1.40, 1.84] per %-unit, P = 6.9 × 10-12). Higher A1C was associated with increased CAD risk when using only glycemic variants (OR 2.23 [1.73, 2.89], P = 1.0 × 10-9) and when using only erythrocytic variants (OR 1.30 [1.08, 1.57], P = 0.006). Genetically decreased Hb, with concomitantly decreased mean corpuscular volume, was associated with higher A1C (0.30 [0.27, 0.33] %-unit, P = 2.9 × 10-6) per g/dL and higher CAD risk (OR 1.19 [1.04, 1.37], P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic evidence supports a causal link between higher A1C and higher CAD risk. This relationship is driven not only by glycemic but also by erythrocytic, glycemia-independent factors.

Heart failure and the prognostic impact and incidence of new-onset of diabetes mellitus: a nationwide cohort study

Background

Prevalent diabetes at the time of heart failure (HF) diagnosis is associated with a higher risk of death, but the incidence and prognostic importance of new-onset diabetes in patients with established HF remains unknown.

Methods

Patients with a first hospitalization for HF in the period 2003–2014 were included and stratified according to history of diabetes. Annual incidence rates of new-onset diabetes were calculated and time-dependent multivariable Cox regression models were used to compare the risk of death in patients with prevalent and new-onset diabetes with patients without diabetes as reference. The model was adjusted for age, sex, duration of HF, educational level and comorbidity. Covariates were continuously updated throughout follow-up.

Results

A total of 104,522 HF patients were included in the study, of which 21,216 (19%) patients had diabetes at baseline, and 8164 (10%) developed new-onset diabetes during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Patients with new-onset diabetes and prevalent diabetes were slightly younger than patients without diabetes (70 vs. 74 and 77, respectively), more likely to be men (62% vs. 60% and 54%), and had more comorbidities expect for ischemic heart disease, hypertension and chronic kidney disease which were more prevalent among patients with prevalent diabetes. Incidence rates of new-onset diabetes increased from around 2 per 100 person-years in the first years following HF hospitalization up to 3 per 100 person-years after 5 years of follow-up. A total of 61,424 (59%) patients died during the study period with event rates per 100 person-years of 21.5 for new-onset diabetes, 17.9 for prevalent diabetes and 13.9 for patients without diabetes. Compared to patients without diabetes, new-onset diabetes was associated with a higher risk of death (adjusted HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.42–1.52) and prevalent diabetes was associated with an intermediate risk (HR 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16–1.21).

Conclusion

Following the first HF hospitalization, the incidence of new-onset diabetes was around 2% per year, rising to 3% after 5 years of follow-up. New-onset diabetes was associated with an increased risk of death, compared to HF patients with prevalent diabetes (intermediate risk) and HF patients without diabetes.