Global Multimorbidity Patterns: A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based, Multi-Country Study

Association between cardiovascular comorbidities and psychological anxiety & depression in the elderly

BACKGROUND

Limited research examining the relationship between cardiovascular comorbidities and psychological anxiety & depression in the elderly, and the conclusions are inconsistent. This study aimed to investigate the intricate relationships between them among the pariticipants aged 60 years and above.

METHODS

Utilizing multivariate logistic regression and stratified analysis to analyze the association between cardiovascular comorbidities and psychological anxiety & depression. Trend analysis was performed to evaluate the risk of developing depression and anxiety as the number of diseases increased. Interaction analysis was utilized to explore potential factors underlying the comorbidity of cardiovascular diseases and depression.

RESULTS

Among 11,960 elder participants (mean age 82 years, 46.5 % male), the prevalences of psychological anxiety, depression, and ≥2 types of cardiovascular diseases are 11.7 %, 25.8 %, and 24.7 %, respectively. Compared to subjects without cardiovascular diseases, those with 2, 3, and 4 types of cardiovascular diseases respectively have increased risk of depression, with corresponding ORs (95 % CI) being 1.23 (1.08-1.40), 1.50 (1.24-1.81), and 1.91 (1.42-2.56), respectively. Trend analysis shows that for each additional cardiovascular comorbidity, the risk of depression increases by 15 % (OR 1.15, 95%CI 1.10-1.20). The interaction effect showed that social activities were both additive and multiplicative factors affecting cardiovascular comorbidity and depression. The association between the risk of anxiety and the complexity of cardiovascular comorbidities is not strong (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

As the complexity of cardiovascular comorbidity increases, the risk of depression skyrockets among older adults, social activities may serve as a remedy.

Exploring Multimorbidity Patterns in older hospitalized Norwegian patients using Network Analysis modularity

BACKGROUND

Understanding Multimorbidity Patterns (MPs) is crucial for planning healthcare interventions, allocating resources, and improving patients' outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to demonstrate the use of Network Analysis (NA) to explore the MPs in hospitalized Norwegian older patients.

METHODS

We utilized data from the Norwegian Patient Registry (NPR) of all admissions between 2017 and 2019. The study population included patients ≥ 65 years old with two or more different conditions. Multimorbidity was defined as the co-occurrence of two or more associated chronic conditions. Chronic conditions were identified using the Chronic Condition Indicator Refined (CCIR) list. The association between chronic conditions was determined by calculating Relative Risk (RR) and Phi-correlation to detect pairs of conditions that co-occur beyond chance. A multimorbidity network was created, and MPs were detected using Louvain method for community detection. We suggested a clinical interpretation for these MPs.

RESULTS

A total of 539 chronic conditions were used to create a multimorbidity network revealing several MPs. These modules included patterns of vision and hearing disorders, cardiorenal syndrome, metabolic and cardiovascular disorders, respiratory disorders, endocrine and skin conditions, autoimmune and musculoskeletal disorders, as well as mental and behavioral disorders. Using NA centrality measures, we identified the most influential conditions in each module. An interactive network and sunburst graphs for each module are publicly available.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates the use of NA modularity detection in identifying MPs. The findings highlight the complex interaction of chronic conditions in the elderly and the potential of NA methodology in exploring these relationships.

Prevalence of Chronic Diseases and Patterns of Multimorbidity Among Older Adults in Zhejiang, China: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Utilizing Electronic Health Records

China has implemented national essential public health services (NEPHS) to strengthen its primary health care system. These services are continuously adjusted in accordance with factors such as public health service requirements. Previous research has indicated significant variability in the prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity. This study utilizes the Electronic Health Records in 2021 (N = 4,045,684) to describe the prevalence of major chronic diseases and explore common patterns of multimorbidity among older adults in Zhejiang, China. Results show that the prevalence of multimorbidity was 36.04%, with the most common pattern of multimorbidity being hypertension and dyslipidemia (12.66%), followed by hypertension and diabetes (5.46%), and hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes (3.95%). The NEPHS should consider embracing the strategic management framework of the Guided Care Model, shifting the focus from a purely disease-oriented to a more holistic patient-oriented model.

The association between physical multimorbidity and fall-related injury among adults aged ≥ 50 years from low- and middle-income countries

Studies from high-income countries have shown that multimorbidity is associated with increased fall risk among older adults. However, studies specifically on this topic from low- and middle-income counties (LMICs) are lacking. Thus, we aimed to assess this association among adults aged ≥ 50 years from six LMICs.Cross-sectional, community-based data from the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) were analyzed. Eleven chronic physical conditions were assessed. The presence of past 12-month fall-related injury was ascertained through self-reported information. Multivariable logistic regression and mediation analysis was conducted to assess the association between multimorbidity and fall-related injury.Data on 34,129 adults aged ≥ 50 years [mean (SD) age 62.4 (16.0) years; males 48.0%] were analyzed. Overall, compared to having no chronic conditions, having 2, 3, and ≥ 4 chronic conditions were significantly associated with 1.67 (95%CI = 1.21-2.30), 2.64 (95%CI = 1.89-3.68), and 3.67 (95%CI = 2.42-5.57) times higher odds for fall-related injury. The association between multimorbidity (i.e., ≥ 2 chronic conditions) and fall-related injury was mainly explained by pain/discomfort (mediated% 39.7%), mobility (34.1%), sleep/energy (24.2%), and cognition (13.0%).Older adults with multimorbidity in LMICs are at increased odds for fall-related injury. Targeting the identified potential mediators among those with multimorbidity may reduce fall risk in this population.

Association between nap time, nighttime sleep, and multimorbidity in Chinese older adults: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to explore the relationship between sleep duration and multimorbidity among elderly Chinese and to determine the optimal sleep duration for preventing multimorbidity.

METHODS

This study is based on data from the 2020 China Health and Elderly Care Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS), which collected detailed information from 5,761elderly individuals, including demographic characteristics, sleep duration, health status, and lifestyle information. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the relationship between sleep duration and multimorbidity, and restricted cubic spline analysis was employed to analyze the dose-response relationship between sleep duration and multimorbidity.

RESULTS

After adjusting for potential confounders, a U-shaped association was found between nighttime sleep duration and the likelihood of multimorbidity among the elderly. Specifically, elderly individuals with a nighttime sleep duration of 7 h had the lowest incidence of multimorbidity. Compared to those with 6-8 h of nighttime sleep, elderly individuals with less than 6 h (OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.05-1.48) or more than 8 h (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.37-2.34) of nighttime sleep had a 24% and 79% increased likelihood of multimorbidity, respectively. The restricted cubic spline analysis further confirmed this U-shaped relationship, showing that the likelihood of multimorbidity gradually decreased as sleep duration increased from 6 to 7 h, but gradually increased as sleep duration exceeded 7 h. Additionally, a positive correlation was found between napping habits and the likelihood of multimorbidity, with elderly individuals without napping habits having a lower likelihood of multimorbidity compared to those with napping habits. Subgroup analysis indicated no significant differences in the impact of 6-8 h of nighttime sleep on multimorbidity among male and female elderly individuals and different age groups.

CONCLUSION

Appropriate nighttime sleep duration may be an important factor in preventing multimorbidity among the elderly, while increased napping duration may increase the likelihood of multimorbidity. These findings provide scientific evidence for sleep health management among the elderly, suggesting the promotion of appropriate sleep duration to reduce the likelihood of multimorbidity in this population.

The association between total social exposure and incident multimorbidity: A population-based cohort study

Background

Multimorbidity, the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions, is associated with the social determinants of health. Using comprehensive linked population-representative data, we sought to understand the combined effect of multiple social determinants on multimorbidity incidence in Ontario, Canada.

Methods

Ontario respondents aged 20-55 in 2001-2011 cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey were linked to administrative health data ascertain multimorbidity status until 2022. Additive total social exposure (TSE) was generated by summing 12 measures of social disadvantage captured from the survey. Weighted-additive TSE included 15 measures of social disadvantage summed across 5 equally weighted domains. Hazard ratios for the association between each TSE measure and multimorbidity were estimated using competing risk Cox-proportional hazards models. All analyses were sex-stratified.

Results

Both additive and weighted-additive TSE were associated with an increased risk of multimorbidity among females and males. A social gradient was observed for multimorbidity risk in all models. While adjusted models were attenuated, an increased risk of multimorbidity was observed among those experiencing the most social disadvantage, compared to those with the least social disadvantage in additive (HR Females = 2.16; 95%CI = 1.63, 2.86; HR Males = 1.90; 95%CI = 1.52, 2.38) and weighted-additive (HR Females = 1.94; 95%CI = 1.49, 2.53; HR Males = 1.72; 95%CI = 1.41, 2.10) models. The observed social gradient was retained.

Conclusions

These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the cumulative effects of multiple social determinants of health on multimorbidity.

Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socio-economic status, and sex in South Africa

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.

Understanding the incidence and recurrence of depression and associated risk factors in 9 years of follow-up: Results from a population-based sample

INTRODUCTION

This paper aims to analyse depression incidence and recurrence rates in a Spanish adult cohort, while also investigating associated risk factors based on depression status at baseline.

METHODS

Longitudinal, prospective study data of the Edad con Salud cohort was used, which comprises a sample representative of the non-institutionalized adult populace at the national level with a final sample size of 2655 Spanish adults. Competing risk regression models were estimated to determine the main risk factors for incident and recurrent depression.

RESULTS

The study found depression incidence at 6.11 per 1,000 person years, with recurrence rates up to 47.8 and 21.3 per 1,000 person years in those with depression at baseline and only history of depression, respectively, with higher rates found among women. Sociodemographic factors were found to primarily predict incident depression, while health and mental health indicators were significant predictors for recurrent depression.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm the augmented risk of experiencing a new episode among individuals with proximal depression, where different risk factors seemed to play a role depending on episode type and depression proximity. These findings provide valuable insights for developing preventive strategies for depression in both the general population and those at risk.

Cohort profile: creation of the SAIL MELD-B e-cohort (SMC) and SAIL MELD-B children and young adult e-cohort (SMYC) to investigate the lived experience of the 'burdensomeness' of multimorbidity

PURPOSE

We have established the SAIL MELD-B electronic cohort (e-cohort SMC) and the SAIL MELD-B children and Young adults e-cohort (SMYC) as a part of the Multidisciplinary Ecosystem to study Lifecourse Determinants and Prevention of Early-onset Burdensome Multimorbidity (MELD-B) project. Each cohort has been created to investigate and develop a deeper understanding of the lived experience of the 'burdensomeness' of multimorbidity by identifying new clusters of burdensomeness concepts, exploring early life risk factors of multimorbidity and modelling hypothetical prevention scenarios.

PARTICIPANTS

The SMC and SMYC are longitudinal e-cohorts created from routinely collected individual-level population-scale anonymised data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. They include individuals with available records from linked health and demographic data sources in SAIL at any time between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2022. The SMYC e-cohort is a subset of the SMC, including only individuals born on or after the cohort start date.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The SMC and SMYC cohorts include 5 180 602 (50.3% female and 49.7% male) and 896 155 (48.7% female and 51.3% male) individuals, respectively. Considering both primary and secondary care health data, the five most common long-term conditions for individuals in SMC are 'Depression', affecting 21.6% of the cohort, 'Anxiety' (21.1%), 'Asthma' (17.5%), 'Hypertension' (16.2%) and 'Atopic Eczema' (14.1%) and the five most common conditions for individuals in SMYC are 'Atopic Eczema' (21.2%), 'Asthma' (11.6%), 'Anxiety' (6.0%), 'Deafness' (4.6%) and 'Depression' (4.3%).

FUTURE PLANS

The SMC and SMYC e-cohorts have been developed using a reproducible, maintainable concept curation pipeline, which allows for the cohorts to be updated dynamically over time and manages for the request and processing of further approved long-term conditions and burdensomeness concepts extraction. Best practices from the MELD-B project can be utilised across other projects, accessing similar data with population-scale data sources and trusted research environments.

The association of material deprivation with major depressive disorder and the role of loneliness and social support: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Existing research has highlighted the positive association of material deprivation, loneliness, and poor social support with major depressive disorder (MDD). However, there is limited information on the complex interplay between these risk factors. In this study, we investigated (1) whether loneliness and social support moderate the relationship between material deprivation and MDD and (2) whether social support moderates the association between material deprivation and loneliness.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study analyzing responses from a representative sample of the Spanish adult population, comprising 2790 individuals who were interviewed between 2019 and 2021. The 12-month prevalence of MDD was assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Loneliness was measured using the three-item UCLA Loneliness Scale, and social support was evaluated with the Oslo social support scale. Material deprivation was measured using an instrument developed by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE). Regression models were constructed to investigate moderating effects.

RESULTS

About 25 % of participants experienced material deprivation and 2.8 % had MDD. Among those with lower levels of loneliness, the probability of MDD was almost 0.10 and no significant differences were found in relation to material deprivation. Conversely, differences depending on material deprivation ranged from 0.10 (95 % CI 0.03, 0.18) to 0.44 (95 % CI 0.24, 0.65) among those with higher levels of loneliness. Social support effectively moderated the association between material deprivation and loneliness.

LIMITATION

The cross-sectional nature limits causal inferences.

CONCLUSION

Social support has the potential to improve loneliness and mental health in individuals with economic difficulties.

Demographic and clinical characteristics of older people with multimorbidity accessing primary healthcare in Malawi: A cross-sectional study

Background

Multimorbidity is a growing global concern, affecting patient outcomes and healthcare costs. In low- and middle-income countries, data on multimorbidity in primary care beyond prevalence is limited. Our study explored the demographic and clinical characteristics of multimorbidity among older people attending primary health care in Malawi.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis on medical records from 15,009 older patients aged ≥50 years across three hospitals in Malawi (one tertiary, two district). Data from 2019-2021 was analyzed using R statistical software to examine patterns of multimorbidity (two or more chronic conditions). Outcome estimates were adjusted for sex, age, location, and year of clinic visit.

Results

The overall prevalence of multimorbidity, defined across 17 recorded chronic conditions, was 19.6%. Among the 2,941 cases of multimorbidity, 2,708 (92.0%) involved two chronic conditions, while 233 (8.0%) involved three. While most conditions increased steadily in prevalence with age, diabetes followed a different pattern, with higher prevalence among individuals aged 50-59 years (53.9%) and 60-69 years (52.4%) compared to those 70 years and older (40.3%). After adjusting for clinic visit year, gender, and study location, individuals aged 70 years and older were significantly less likely to have multimorbidity compared to those aged 50-59 years (AOR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.52-0.62, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The study revealed a wide range of multimorbidity combinations among older people attending primary health care. Strategies to address multimorbidity in older people should include efforts to identify other, less common clusters of chronic conditions.

Unravelling the role of health literacy among individuals with multimorbidity: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine existing literature regarding health literacy levels and their association with multimorbidity and the potential underlying mechanisms behind the said association.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Science Direct were searched for articles published between 1 January 2000 and 31 October 2023 using a systematic search strategy.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Included were all primary studies conducted in people over 18 years old with data on health literacy levels and the presence of multimorbidity. No language restrictions were used.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two authors independently extracted data and assessed the bias using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools.

RESULTS

We included a total of 39 studies (36 quantitative, two qualitative and one mixed-method), representing 154 337 participants. We found a 32% proportion of limited health literacy among individuals with multimorbidity. Analysis of three articles using the Health Literacy Questionnaire tool (n=31 228) (Pooled OR 2.88 (95% CI 1.92 to 4.31)) and three articles using the Health Literacy Survey Questionnaire-European Union tool (n=35 358) (OR 1.16 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.25)) indicated that people with limited health literacy were likely to have multiple conditions. One of three articles studying underlying mechanisms reported that self-efficacy mediates the association between health literacy and multimorbidity. Additionally, substantial literature identified education and income as the most consistent determinants of health literacy among individuals with multimorbidity. Of the only two articles studying the effectiveness of health literacy-related interventions, both reported an improvement in clinical outcomes after the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review demonstrated a consistent association between health literacy and multimorbidity, indicating that people with lower health literacy levels are more likely to have multimorbidity. More evidence is needed regarding the effect of health literacy interventions on multimorbidity.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022301369.

Non-communicable diseases related multimorbidity, catastrophic health expenditure, and associated factors in Ernakulam district

Background

Multimorbidity, the coexistence of two or more chronic conditions in an individual, has emerged as a significant public health challenge with profound economic implications, exerting substantial strain on healthcare systems and economies worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCD) related multimorbidity, catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and associated factors among adults aged ≥40 years in Ernakulam district.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 420 individuals aged ≥40 years using population probability sampling. The tools used were the Multimorbidity Assessment Questionnaire for Primary Care (MAQ-PC), the WHO STEPS Questionnaire, and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), which assessed non-communicable diseases, diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, and depression. A pretested semi-structured questionnaire collected data on health and household expenditures. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more self-reported NCDs, and CHE was identified when health costs exceeded 10% of a household's expenditure in the past month. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to find independent predictors of multimorbidity and CHE.

Results

The mean age of participants was 60.02 ± 10 years. The prevalence of NCD multimorbidity was 42.6% (95% CI: 37.9-47.3%). The most common dyad was diabetes and hypertension (24.5, 95% CI: 20.4-28.6%). Higher odds of multimorbidity were observed in those aged ≥60 years (aOR = 3.03, 95% CI: 1.95-4.73), unmarried/widowed/divorced (aOR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.28-3.63), unemployed (aOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.14-2.87), and tobacco users (aOR = 3.72, 95% CI: 1.85-7.48). Approximately 32.4% (95% CI: 25.5-39.3%) of households incurred catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) by treating adults with multimorbidity. Age ≥ 60 (aOR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.99-5.77) and use of outpatient services (aOR = 4.09, 95% CI: 2.01-8.32) were independently associated with higher odds of CHE. IP services and each additional morbidity add ₹22,082.37 (β = 0.557, p < 0.001, 95% CI: ₹17,139.88- ₹27,024.86) and ₹1,278.75 (β = 0.128, p = 0.044, 95%CI: ₹35.58-₹2,521.92) to healthcare costs, respectively.

Conclusion

The high prevalence of multimorbidity and associated CHE among individuals over 60 years highlights the urgent need for the National Programme for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases to prioritise multimorbidity and its management, especially above 60 years within this age group.

Multimorbidity and tooth loss: data from Chilean National Health Survey 2016-2017

BACKGROUND

Oral diseases are a significant global public health challenge. Current evidence indicates that several chronic conditions are individually associated with tooth loss. People are living with more than one chronic condition, known as multimorbidity (MM). Considering the common risk factors for oral and chronic diseases, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MM and tooth loss in the Chilean population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study with secondary data from the latest Chilean National Health Survey (ENS 2016-17). The number of remaining teeth was classified into four groups: functional dentition (≥ 20 remaining teeth), moderate tooth loss (10 to 19), severe tooth loss (1 to 9), and edentulism (0). MM was defined based on the number of chronic conditions as a binary variable (MM≥ 2) and as a 4-level categorical variable (MMG0-G3), G0: none, G1: 1, G2: 2-4, and G3: ≥5 conditions. Stratified analysis by age group (< 65, ≥ 65 years) was performed. Mean and SD were calculated for crude and adjusted remaining teeth. Significance level was set to 0.05. Prevalence ratios were estimated with Poisson regression models with robust variance, crude and adjusted for sex, age, geographic area, and educational level. Logistic regressions models were fitted to calculate odds ratios as a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Of 4,151 adults aged 17-98, 54.9% had MM and the prevalence of moderate, severe tooth loss and edentulism was 25.4%, 6.9% and 4.8% respectively. Adults aged ≥ 65 years with MM≥ 2 were 1.66 [1.04-2.66] times more likely to have severe tooth loss than those without MM. Adults aged < 65 years with MMG3 were 1.76 [1.12-2.77] times more likely to have moderate tooth loss and 2.55 [1.02-6.36] times more likely to have severe tooth loss than those without MM.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found statistically significant associations between the number of chronic conditions and moderate/severe tooth loss in both analyzed age groups. These findings highlight the need to provide oral health care for adults with multimorbidity using a person-centred model and to seek strategies to prioritize health care.

Assessing self-administration of medication: video-based evaluation of patient performance in the ABLYMED study

Background

Older adults often face challenges in medication management due to multimorbidity and complex medication regimens, which frequently go unreported. Unrecognized problems, however, may lead to a loss of drug efficacy and harmful side effects. This study aimed to quantify the prevalence of such problems by applying a novel video-based assessment procedure in a sample of elderly patients.

Methods

In this study, 67 elderly in-patients (≥70 years old and regularly taking ≥5 different drugs autonomously) from the ABLYMED study participated in a placebo-based assessment of medication management with five different dosage forms in an instructed manner while being filmed. Patient performance was quantified by the median value of two raters who evaluated each step of medication administration, which were summed to sum scores for each dosage form and an overall impression for each dosage form with a standardized and previously validated rating scheme.

Results

The median (Q1;Q3) sum score for tablets was 7.0 (5.0;8.0) with a theoretical range between 4.0 and 17.0, for eye-drops 2.0 (1.0;2.0) with a theoretical range between 1.0 and 5.0, for oral drops 4.0 (3.0;6.0) with a theoretical range between 3.0 and 12.0, for pens 7.0 (5.0;9.0) with a theoretical range between 4.0 and 17.0 and for patches 5.0 (4.0;7.0) with a theoretical range between 3.0 and 15.0. The most difficult step of medication administration was peeling off the protective liner of a patch: 30% had severe difficulties or it was not possible, 21% had moderate difficulties and 49% had mild or no difficulties.

Discussion

In a sample of patients with autonomous medication management, our novel assessment procedure identified a substantial fraction of patients with handling problems for each dosage form. This suggests that patients´ medication management problems should be assessed regularly in clinical routine and tackled by patient-individual training or modification of the prescribed drug regimens to achieve effective drug therapy in the elderly.

Effects of socioeconomic status and regional inequality on the association between PM2.5 and its components and cardiometabolic multimorbidity: A multicenter population-based survey in eastern China

BACKGROUND

Despite evidence linking fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM), the impact of its components remains unclear. Socioeconomic status (SES) and regional disparities may confound their association. We aim to evaluate the associations between PM2.5 components and CMM and explore how socioeconomic status and regional disparities affect these relationships.

METHODS

We recruited 108,941 participants aged 35-76 years from ten cities in eastern China. Individual exposure was assessed using Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) data, including PM2.5 and five components: ammonium (NH4+), black carbon (BC), nitrates (NO3-), organic matter (OM), and sulfates (SO42-). Generalized linear models and quantile g-computation models were employed to quantify the effects of PM2.5 components on CMM and to identify key components. Stratified analyses were performed to investigate the modifying effect of SES and regional disparities.

RESULTS

For each increase in interquartile range (IQR), BC (odds ratio [OR] 1.37, 95 % CI 1.29-1.47), OM (1.38, 1.29-1.48), NH4+ (1.31, 1.21-1.40), NO3- (1.34, 1.25-1.44), and SO42- (1.28, 1.20-1.38) were positively associated with CMM. Joint exposure to five components was significantly positively associated with CMM (OR: 1.27, 95 % CI: 1.21-1.33), with SO42- having the highest estimated weight, followed by NO3- and BC. These associations were stronger for participants from low socio-economic status and poor regions.

CONCLUSION

In summary, we found a stronger hazard effect of PM2.5 and its components on CMM, compared to those suffering from CMDs, particularly among participants with low socioeconomic status and in poor regions. SO42- may be a primary contributor to the association between PM2.5 components and CMM. These findings underscore the importance of prioritizing CMM and targeting SO42-related pollution sources in health policies, particularly amid China's aging population, reducing environmental health inequalities is critical.

Incentivizing primary care utilization in China: the impact of health insurance coverage on health-seeking behaviour

China's healthcare system faces significant challenges, notably the underutilization of primary healthcare resources and the inefficient distribution of healthcare services. In response, this article explores the effectiveness of the New Rural Cooperative Medical System (NRCMS) in improving healthcare accessibility and primary care utilization. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences model and using data from the China Family Panel Studies spanning 2012-20, it aims to empirically examine how health insurance policy incentivizing primary care influences rural residents' health-seeking behaviour and enhances the efficiency of resource utilization. Results indicate that NRCMS significantly improves the probability of rural residents seeking healthcare services at primary healthcare centres (PHCs), especially for outpatient services. This effect can be attributed to the substantially higher outpatient reimbursement rates at PHCs compared to higher-level medical institutions. Conversely, the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance fails to increase urban residents' engagement with primary care, reinforcing the role of price sensitivity in healthcare choices among insured lower-income rural population. Furthermore, the study reveals a stronger preference for PHCs among younger, less-educated insured residents and highlights a synergistic effect between the availability of primary healthcare resources and insurance coverage on primary care utilization. These findings offer crucial implications for refining health insurance policies to improve healthcare service accessibility and efficiency.

Factors associated with receiving an obesity diagnosis and obesity-related treatment for patients with obesity class II and III within a single integrated health system

Objectives

The prevalence and associated adverse effects of obesity on health and healthcare cost make it a primary public health concern. However, individuals with the physiological features of obesity may be underdiagnosed and undertreated. We aimed to determine the prevalence of obesity diagnoses and obesity-related treatments in an integrated health system and determine the factors associated with receiving an obesity diagnosis and treatment for this indication.

Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study of data from the Henry Ford Health electronic health record included adult patients with a body mass index (BMI) indicating clinical evidence of class II and III (severe) obesity in 2017 and who received treatment through 2019. The primary outcome was prevalence of obesity diagnosis and obesity-related treatment. Logistic regression evaluated the patient-level factors associated with odds of having obesity diagnosis and treatment.

Results

Among 64,741 patients meeting the clinical definition of definition of severe obesity, only 40.7 % were clinically diagnosed with obesity, and 23.5 % received an obesity-related intervention. Patients with BMI≥40 kg/m2 (class III) were more likely to be diagnosed with obesity than those with BMI 35-39.9 kg/m2 (class II) (odds ratio [OR] 5.84; 95 % CI, 5.62-6.07). Patients with a diagnosis of obesity (OR 2.92; 95 % CI, 2.80-3.05), Black patients (OR 1.46; 95 % CI, 1.40-1.53), and female patients (OR 1.47; 95 % CI, 1.41-1.54) were more likely to be offered obesity-related treatment.

Conclusions

Severe obesity may be underdiagnosed in patients who have BMI 35-39.9 kg/m2 and 1 comorbidity.

Experiences of older people with multimorbidity regarding self-management of diseases: A systematic review and qualitative meta-synthesis

AIM

This qualitative systematic review aimed to consolidate existing evidence on the self-management experience of older patients with multimorbidity worldwide.

METHODS

Nine databases were searched, for papers published from database inception to April 2023. The systematic review was conducted according to the systematic review method of qualitative evidence by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI).

RESULTS

Seven studies were included. Finally, four themes and 12 subthemes were formed: (1) physical level: reduced physical function and lack of coordinated care; (2) psychological level: mental state of anxiety and positive attitude towards life; (3) social level: technical support, support from family, support from healthcare workers and support from others; and (4) practical level: economic burden, lifestyle changes, self-care in daily life and compliance was much lower than expected.

CONCLUSIONS

To improve self-management in older people with multimorbidity, nurses should provide more guidance to patients to improve their self-management skills, and clinicians should recommend effective self-management behaviours.

Challenges in the practical implementation of blood biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease

Blood biomarkers have emerged as accessible, cost-effective, and highly promising tools for advancing the diagnostics of Alzheimer's disease. However, transitioning from cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers to blood biomarkers-eg, to verify amyloid β pathology-requires careful consideration. This Series paper highlights the main challenges in the implementation of blood biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease in different possible contexts of use. Despite the robustness of measuring blood biomarker concentrations, the widespread adoption of blood biomarkers requires rigorous standardisation efforts to address inherent challenges in diverse contexts of use. The challenges include understanding the effect of pre-analytical and analytical conditions, potential confounding factors, and comorbidities that could influence outcomes of blood biomarkers and their use in diverse populations. Additionally, distinct scenarios present their own specific challenges. In memory clinics, the successful integration of blood biomarkers in diagnostic tests will require well-established diagnostic accuracy and comprehensive assessments of the effect of blood biomarkers on the diagnostic confidence and patient management of clinicians. In primary care settings, and even more when implemented in population-based screening programmes for which no experience with any biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease currently exists, the implementation of blood biomarkers will be challenged by the need for education of primary care clinical staff and clear guidelines. However, despite the challenges, blood biomarkers hold great promise for substantially enhancing the diagnostic accuracy and effectively streamlining referral processes, leading to earlier diagnosis and access to treatments. The ongoing efforts that are shaping the integration of blood biomarkers across diverse clinical settings pave the way towards precision medicine in Alzheimer's disease.

Resilience among older adults with multimorbidity using the Connor-Davidson scale in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging: health behaviour, socio-economic, and social support predictors

OBJECTIVE

Multimorbidity is recognized as a serious health condition faced by a majority of older adults. Research investigating adaptive responses to multimorbidity, termed multimorbidity resilience, has been growing. This paper examines protective and risk factors, with a focus on health behaviours, socio-economic resources, and social support using an established measure of resilience (Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale) among older adults, focusing on older persons with two or more concurrent chronic conditions.

METHODS

Using Baseline (2011-2015), Follow-up One (2015-2018), and Follow-up Two (2018-2021) data from the Comprehensive Cohort of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging, we tested hypotheses using 13,064 participants aged 65 years and older, who completed all waves and reported two or more of 27 chronic conditions, for the full sample of multimorbid individuals and three multimorbidity clusters: Cardiovascular/Metabolic, Musculoskeletal, and Mental Health. Associations between protective and risk factors and resilience were examined using linear regression to model the Connor-Davidson resilience scale, adjusting for illness context and social determinants of health.

RESULTS

Among all multimorbid individuals, the strongest associations with resilience were found for higher self-rated health, greater sleep satisfaction, better appetite, higher household income, more relatives and friends, being overweight (compared to normal weight), fewer housing problems, and fewer skipped meals. Weaker associations were found for non-smokers, less alcohol consumption, less pain, sedentary behaviour, being non-married (compared to married), and among Canadian born (compared to foreign). The analyses for the three multimorbidity clusters were largely replicated for the three multimorbidity clusters, but with some nuances depending on the cluster.

DISCUSSION

This research provides confirmatory evidence for several protective and risk factors affecting the ability to cope and recover from multimorbidity adversity among older adults. There are consistent patterns for the multimorbidity disease clusters, but some distinct relationships arise that are worthy of attention. The implications of the findings for modifiable health behaviours and socio-economic factors are discussed for their public health and clinical relevance.

Changes in patterns of multimorbidity and associated with medical costs among Chinese middle-aged and older adults from 2013 to 2023: an analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys in Xiangyang, China

Background

Multimorbidity has become a major public health problem among Chinese middle-aged and older adults, and the most costly to the health care system. However, most previous population-based studies of multimorbidity have focused on a limited number of chronic diseases, and diagnosis was based on participants' self-report, which may oversimplify the problem. At the same time, there were few reports on the relationship between multimorbidity patterns and health care costs. This study analyzed the multimorbidity patterns and changes among middle-aged and older people in China over the past decade, and their association with medical costs, based on representative hospital electronic medical record data.

Methods

Two cross-sectional surveys based on representative hospital data were used to obtain adults aged 45 years and older in Xiangyang in 2013 (n = 20,218) and 2023 (n = 63,517). Latent Class Analysis was used to analyze changes in the patterns of multimorbidity, gray correlation analysis and ordered logistics model were used to assess the association of multimorbidity patterns with medical expenses. The diagnosis and classification of chronic diseases were based on the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes (ICD-10).

Results

The detection rate of chronic disease multimorbidity has increased (70.74 vs. 76.63%, p < 0.001), and multimorbidity patterns have increased from 6 to 9 (2013: Malignant tumors pattern, non-specific multimorbidity pattern, ischemic heart disease + hypertension pattern, cerebral infarction + hypertension pattern, kidney disease + hypertension pattern, lens disease + hypertension pattern; new in 2023: Nutritional metabolism disorders + hypertension pattern, chronic lower respiratory diseases + malignant tumors pattern, and gastrointestinal diseases pattern) in China. The medical cost of all multimorbidity patients have been reduced between 2013 and 2023 (RMB: 8216.74 vs. 7247.96, IQR: 5802.28-15,737 vs. 5014.63-15434.06). The top three specific multimorbidity patterns in both surveys were malignancy tumor pattern, ischemic heart disease + hypertension pattern, and cerebral infarction + hypertension pattern. Hypertension and type 2 diabetes are important components of multimorbidity patterns. Compared with patients with a single disease, only lens disorders + hypertension pattern were at risk of higher medical costs in 2013 (aOR:1.23, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.47), whereas all multimorbidity patterns were significantly associated with increased medical costs in 2023, except for lens disorders + hypertension (aOR:0.35, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.39). Moreover, the odds of higher medical costs were not consistent across multimorbidity patterns. Among them, ischemic heart disease + hypertension pattern [adjusted odds ratio (aOR):4.66, 95%CI: 4.31, 5.05] and cerebral infarction + hypertension pattern (aOR: 3.63, 95% CI: 3.35, 3.92) were the two patterns with the highest risk. Meanwhile, men (aOR:1.12, 95CI:1.09, 1.16), no spouse (aOR:1.09, 95CI: 1.03, 1.16) had a positive effect on medical costs, while patients with total self-pay (aOR: 0.45, 95CI: 0.29, 0.70), no surgery (aOR: 0.05, 95CI: 0.05, 0.05), rural residence (aOR: 0.92, 95CI: 0.89, 0.95), hospitalization days 1-5 (aOR: 0.04, 95CI: 0.04, 0.04), and hospitalization days 6-9 (aOR: 0.15, 95CI: 0.15, 0.16) had a negative impact on medical costs.

Conclusion

Multimorbidity patterns among middle-aged and older adults in China have diversified over the past decade and are associated with rising health care costs in China. Smart, decisive and comprehensive policy and care interventions are needed to effectively manage NCDS and their risk factors and to reduce the economic burden of multimorbidity on patients and the country.

Inequalities in Disability-Free and Disabling Multimorbid Life Expectancy in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States

OBJECTIVES

To better understand variations in multimorbidity severity over time, we estimate disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy (MMLE), comparing Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States (US). We also assess MMLE inequalities by sex and education.

METHODS

Data come from the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (2005-2009), the Mexican Health and Aging Study (2012-2018), and the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2018). We apply an incidence-based multistate Markov approach to estimate disability-free and disabling MMLE and stratify models by sex and education to study within-country heterogeneity. Multimorbidity is defined as a count of 2 or more chronic diseases. Disability is defined using limitations in activities of daily living.

RESULTS

Costa Ricans have the lowest MMLE, followed by Mexicans, then individuals from the US. Individuals from the US spend about twice as long with disability-free multimorbidity compared with individuals from Costa Rica or Mexico. Females generally have longer MMLE than males, with particularly stark differences in disabling MMLE. In the US, higher education was associated with longer disability-free MMLE and shorter disabling MMLE. We identified evidence for cumulative disadvantage in Mexico and the US, where sex differences in MMLE were larger among the lower educated.

DISCUSSION

Substantial sex and educational inequalities in MMLE exist within and between these countries. Estimating disability-free and disabling MMLE reveals another layer of health inequality not captured when examining disability and multimorbidity separately. MMLE is a flexible population health measure that can be used to better understand the aging process across contexts.

Multimorbidity, health Literacy, and quality of life among older adults in an urban slum in India: a community-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

India is experiencing a rising burden of chronic disease multimorbidity due to an aging population and epidemiological transition. Older adults residing in urban slums are especially vulnerable due to challenges in managing multimorbidity amid deprived living conditions. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of multimorbidity, associated health literacy, and quality of life impact in this population.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 800 adults aged ≥ 65 years in an urban slum in Gujarat, India. Data on sociodemographics, physical and mental health conditions, health literacy (HLS-SF-47), quality of life (Short Form-12 scale), and social determinants of health were collected. Multimorbidity is ≥ 2 physical or mental health conditions in one person.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multimorbidity was 62.5% (500/800). Multimorbidity was significantly associated with lower physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores on the SF-12 (p < 0.001). After adjusting for sociodemographic variables, the odds ratio of 0.81 indicates that for every 1 unit increase in the health literacy score, the odds of having multimorbidity decrease by 19%. Older age within the older adult cohort (per year increase) was associated with greater odds of multimorbidity (AOR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.09). Physical inactivity (AOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.027-2.77) and lack of social support (AOR 1.57, 95% CI 1.01-2.45) also increased the likelihood of multimorbidity.

CONCLUSION

There is a substantial burden of multimorbidity among urban slum dwellers aged ≥ 65 years in India, strongly linked to modifiable risk factors like poor health literacy and social determinants of health. Targeted interventions are essential to alleviate this disproportionate burden among urban slum older adults.

Relationship between 2nd-generation angiotensin receptor blockers and the risk of hypotension in COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital

It has not yet been established whether angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), statins, and multiple drugs affect the severity of COVID-19. Therefore, we herein performed an observational study on the effects of 1st- and 2nd-generation ARB, statins, and multiple drugs, on COVID-19 in patients admitted to 15 Japanese medical facilities. The results obtained showed that ARB, statins, and multiple drugs were not associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio: 1.040, 95% confidence interval: 0.688-0.571; 0.696, 0.439-1.103; 1.056, 0.941-1.185, respectively), each component of the primary outcome (in-hospital death, ventilator support, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, and admission to the intensive care unit), or the secondary outcomes (oxygen administration, disturbed consciousness, and hypotension, defined as systolic blood pressure ≤90 mmHg). ARB were divided into 1st- and 2nd-generations based on their approval for use (before 2000 and after 2001), with the former consisting of losartan, candesartan, and valsartan, and the latter of telmisartan, olmesartan, irbesartan, and azilsartan. The difference of ARB generation was not associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio with 2nd-generation ARB relative to 1st-generation ARB: 1.257, 95% confidence interval: 0.613-2.574). The odd ratio for a hypotension as one of the secondary outcomes with 2nd-generation ARB was 1.754 (95% confidence interval: 1.745-1.763) relative to 1st-generation ARB. These results suggest that patients taking 2nd-generation ARB may be at a higher risk of hypotension than those taking 1st-generation ARB and also that careful observations are needed. Further studies are continuously needed to support decisions to adjust medications for co-morbidities.

Prevalence and pattern of multimorbidity in China: a cross-sectional study of 224,142 adults over 60 years old

Aim

To examine the prevalence and potential risk factors of multimorbidity among older adult in China. In addition, we investigated the pattern of multimorbidity.

Methods

This study is based on data from the fourth Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban and Rural China (SSAPUR) in 2015, a comprehensive survey of individuals aged 60 years or older in China. We calculated baseline data and prevalence rates for comorbidities, stratified by household registration, age, sex, education, exercise, and health insurance. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify potential risk factors for comorbidities. Furthermore, we determined the prevalence rates for the three most frequent disease combinations.

Results

A total of 215,040 participants were included in our analysis. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 50.5% among the older adult in China. The prevalence rate was slightly higher in rural areas than in urban areas, with rates of 51.5 and 49.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). Moreover, the prevalence rate was higher in females than in males, with rates of 55.2 and 45.3%, respectively (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that individuals aged 70-79 years (OR:1.40, 95% CI: 1.38-1.43, p < 0.001) and over 80 years (OR:1.41, 95% CI: 1.38-1.45, p < 0.001) had a higher prevalence of multimorbidity than those aged 60-69 years. The most prevalent pair of comorbidities was hypertension and osteoarthropathy, with 19.6% of the participants having these two conditions, accounting for 5.4% of the total participants.

Conclusion

Our findings indicate a high prevalence of multimorbidity among the older adult in China. Increased expenditure on preventive health care, popularization of general medicine and popular medical education may be adopted by the Government to cope with the high prevalence of multimorbidity.

Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models

INTRODUCTION

There is currently no guidance on how to assess the calibration of multistate models used for risk prediction. We introduce several techniques that can be used to produce calibration plots for the transition probabilities of a multistate model, before assessing their performance in the presence of random and independent censoring through a simulation.

METHODS

We studied pseudo-values based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, binary logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (BLR-IPCW), and multinomial logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (MLR-IPCW). The MLR-IPCW approach results in a calibration scatter plot, providing extra insight about the calibration. We simulated data with varying levels of censoring and evaluated the ability of each method to estimate the calibration curve for a set of predicted transition probabilities. We also developed evaluated the calibration of a model predicting the incidence of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease among a cohort of patients derived from linked primary and secondary healthcare records.

RESULTS

The pseudo-value, BLR-IPCW, and MLR-IPCW approaches give unbiased estimates of the calibration curves under random censoring. These methods remained predominately unbiased in the presence of independent censoring, even if the censoring mechanism was strongly associated with the outcome, with bias concentrated in low-density regions of predicted transition probability.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend implementing either the pseudo-value or BLR-IPCW approaches to produce a calibration curve, combined with the MLR-IPCW approach to produce a calibration scatter plot. The methods have been incorporated into the "calibmsm" R package available on CRAN.

Racial inequalities in the development of multimorbidity of chronic conditions: results from a Brazilian prospective cohort

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of multimorbidity and its impacts have differentially affected population subgroups. Evidence on its incidence has mainly come from high-income regions, with limited exploration of racial disparities. This study investigated the association between racial groups and the development of multimorbidity and chronic conditions in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

METHODS

Data from self-reported white, brown (pardos or mixed-race), and black participants at baseline of ELSA-Brasil (2008-2010) who were at risk for multimorbidity were analysed. The development of chronic conditions was assessed through in-person visits and self-reported diagnosis via telephone until the third follow-up visit (2017-2019). Multimorbidity was defined when, at the follow-up visit, the participant had two or more morbidities. Cumulative incidences, incidence rates, and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated using Poisson models.

RESULTS

Over an 8.3-year follow-up, compared to white participants: browns had a 27% greater incidence of hypertension and obesity; and blacks had a 62% and 45% greater incidence, respectively. Blacks also had 58% more diabetes. The cancer incidence was greater among whites. Multimorbidity affected 41% of the participants, with a crude incidence rate of 57.5 cases per 1000 person-years (ranging from 56.3 for whites to 63.9 for blacks). Adjusted estimates showed a 20% higher incidence of multimorbidity in black participants compared to white participants (IRR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.05-1.38).

CONCLUSIONS

Significant racial disparities in the risk of chronic conditions and multimorbidity were observed. Many associations revealed a gradient increase in illness risk according to darker skin tones. Addressing fundamental causes such as racism and racial discrimination, alongside considering social determinants of health, is vital for comprehensive multimorbidity care. Intersectoral, equitable policies are essential for ensuring health rights for historically marginalized groups.

The diabetes mellitus multimorbidity network in hospitalized patients over 50 years of age in China: data mining of medical records

OBJECTIVE

Many diabetes mellitus (DM) patients suffer from multimorbidity. Understanding the DM multimorbidity network should be given priority. The purpose of this study is characterize the DM multimorbidity network in people over 50 years.

METHODS

Data on 75 non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were extracted from electronic medical records of 309,843 hospitalized patients older than 50 years who had at least one NCD. The association rules analysis was used as a novel classification method and combined with the Chi-square tests to identify associations between NCDs and DM.

RESULT

A total of 12 NCDs were closely related to DM, {cholelithiasis, DM} was an unexpected combination. {dyslipidemia, DM} and {gout, DM} had the largest lift in the male and female groups, respectively. The negative related group included 7 NCDs. There were 9 NCDs included in the strong association rules. Most combinations were different by age and sex. In males, the strongest rule was {peripheral vascular disease (PVD), dyslipidemia, DM}, while {hypertension, dyslipidemia, chronic liver disease (CLD), DM} was the strongest in females. In patients younger than 70 years, hypertension, CLD, and dyslipidemia were the most dominant NCDs in the DM multimorbidity network. In patients 70 years or older, chronic kidney disease (CKD), CVD, CHD, and heart disease (HD) frequently co-occurred with DM.

CONCLUSION

Future primary healthcare policies for DM should be formulated based on age and sex. In patients younger than 70 years, more attention to hypertension, CLD, and dyslipidemia is required, while attention to CKD, CVD, CHD and HD is needed in patients older than 70 years.

The state of health in the European Union (EU-27) in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Burden of diseases information and the resulting trends over time are essential for health planning. This paper reports estimates of disease burden in the EU and individual 27 EU countries in 2019, and compares them with those in 2010.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardised death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for Level 2 causes, as well as life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE).

RESULTS

In 2019, the age-standardised death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 deaths and 20,251.0 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases in age-standardised death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged. The largest decreases in age-standardised DALY rates were observed for "HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases" and "transport injuries" (each -19%). "Diabetes and kidney diseases" showed a significant increase for age-standardised DALY rates across the EU (3.5%). In addition, "mental disorders" showed an increasing age-standardised YLL rate (14.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a clear trend towards improvement in the overall health status of the EU but with differences between countries. EU health policymakers need to address the burden of diseases, paying specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease.

Multimorbidity patterns and trajectories in young and middle-aged adults: a large-scale population-based cohort study

Introduction

The presence of multiple chronic conditions, also referred to as multimorbidity, is a common finding in adults. Epidemiologic research can help identify groups of individuals with similar clinical profiles who could benefit from similar interventions. Many cross-sectional studies have revealed the existence of different multimorbidity patterns. Most of these studies were focused on the older population. However, multimorbidity patterns begin to form at a young age and can evolve over time following distinct multimorbidity trajectories with different impact on health. In this study, we aimed to identify multimorbidity patterns and trajectories in adults 18-65 years old.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal epidemiologic study in the EpiChron Cohort, which includes all inhabitants of Aragón (Spain) registered as users of the Spanish National Health System, linking, at the patient level, information from electronic health records from both primary and specialised care. We included all 293,923 patients 18-65 years old with multimorbidity in 2011. We used cluster analysis at baseline (2011) and in 2015 and 2019 to identify multimorbidity patterns at four and eight years of follow-up, and we then created alluvial plots to visualise multimorbidity trajectories. We performed age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression analysis to study the association of each pattern with four- and eight-year mortality.

Results

We identified three multimorbidity patterns at baseline, named dyslipidaemia & endocrine-metabolic, hypertension & obesity, and unspecific. The hypertension & obesity pattern, found in one out of every four patients was associated with a higher likelihood of four- and eight-year mortality (age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio 1.11 and 1.16, respectively) compared to the unspecific pattern. Baseline patterns evolved into different patterns during the follow-up.

Discussion

Well-known preventable cardiovascular risk factors were key elements in most patterns, highlighting the role of hypertension and obesity as risk factors for higher mortality. Two out of every three patients had a cardiovascular profile with chronic conditions like diabetes and obesity that are linked to low-grade systemic chronic inflammation. More studies are encouraged to better characterise the relatively large portion of the population with an unspecific disease pattern and to help design and implement effective and comprehensive strategies towards healthier ageing.

Can countries shape the association between cumulative adversity and old-age health?

Introduction

The present study examined the relationships of Lifetime Cumulative Adversity (LCA) and country inequalities, as well as the interactions between them, with the self-rated health (SRH) in old age.

Methods

Using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), the study regressed self-rated health on Lifetime Cumulative Adversity and country-level inequality indices across European countries in two points in time. The analysis also considered adversity-inequality interactions, controlling for confounders. The sample was comprised of 28,789 adults, aged 50 to 80, from 25 European countries and Israel.

Results

The findings pointed out that LCA is negatively associated with SRH, but democracy and welfare regimes modify the ill effects of LCA on health. These effects are reduced as the LCA level increases. The effects remained significant over two measurement time-points over three years, showing that life-course trajectories may be shaped by individual accumulated risk exposure to stress, along with inequalities at the society level.

Discussion

The study provides constructive and important guidance for decreasing the harmful effect of lifetime adversity in old age, by the modification of the country's welfare policies.

Regular source of primary care and health services utilisation among Brazilian elderly with mental-physical multimorbidity

BACKGROUND

In ageing populations, multimorbidity is a complex challenge to health systems, especially when the individuals have both mental and physical morbidities. Although a regular source of primary care (RSPC) is associated with better health outcomes, its relation with health service utilisation in elderly patients with mental-physical multimorbidity (MP-MM) is scarce.

OBJECTIVE

This study explored the relations among health service utilisation, presence of RSPC and MP-MM among elderly Brazilians.

METHODS

A national cross-sectional study performed with data from national representative samples from the Brazilian National Health Research (PNS, in Portuguese; Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde) carried out in 2013 with 11,177 elderly Brazilian people. MP-MM was defined as the presence of two or more morbidities, including at least one mental morbidity, and was evaluated using a list of 16 physical and mental morbidities. The RSPC was analysed by the presence of regular font of care in primary care and health service utilisation according to the demand for health services ≤ 15 days, medical consultation ≤ 12 months, and hospitalisation ≤ 1 year. Frequency description of variables and bivariate association were performed using Stata v.15.2 software.

RESULTS

The majority of individuals was female (56.4%), and their mean age was 69.8 years. The observed prevalence of MP-MM was 12.2%. Individuals with MP-MM had higher utilisation of health services when compared to those without MP-MM. RSPC was present at 36.5% and was higher in women (37.8% vs. 34.9%). There was a lower occurrence of hospitalisation ≤ 1 year among MP-MM individuals with RSPC and without a private plan of health.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that RSPC can be an important component of care in elderly individuals with MP-MM because it was associated with lower occurrence of hospitalisation, mainly in those that have not a private plan of health. Longitudinal studies are necessary to confirm these findings.

Consistent and informed choice of drug and route of administration is key to increasing adherence to osteoarthritis treatment

The need to follow an integrated approach when prescribing treatment for patients suffering from osteoarthritis (OA) is beyond doubt. It is clear that success depends on the implementation of recommendations for both lifestyle modification and the introduction of pharmacological agents with different compositions and mechanisms of action aimed at reducing pain, stiffness, inflammation, normalizing joint function, and preventing cartilage destruction. The arsenal of such drugs is increasing, and the evidence base of effectiveness and safety is being enriched. Considering the heterogeneity of OA patients seeking help in terms of gender, age, body mass index, financial wealth, comorbidity, clinical manifestations of the disease, radiological stage of the disease and its duration, experience of previous treatment, a reasonable and agreed upon choice with the patient not only of the drug is relevant, but also the method of administration. The article provides a clinical example of a justified and coordinated choice of treatment for a patient with a generalized form of OA, synovitis of the knee joint, suffering from obesity, depression, low adherence to treatment using the example of prescribing a chondroprotector, the active component of which is a bioactive extract from small sea fish. The treatment effect was confirmed by clinical and instrumental assessment methods over time.

Radiation therapy for cancer is potentially associated with reduced growth of concomitant abdominal aortic aneurysm

PURPOSE

Co-prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and cancer poses a unique challenge in medical care since both diseases and their respective therapies might interact. Recently, reduced AAA growth rates were observed in cancer patients that received radiation therapy (RT). The purpose of this study was to perform a fine-grained analysis of the effects of RT on AAA growth with respect to direct (infield) and out-of-field (outfield) radiation exposure, and radiation dose-dependency.

METHODS

A retrospective single-center analysis identified patients with AAA, cancer, and RT. Clinical data, radiation plans, and aneurysm diameters were analyzed. The total dose of radiation to each aneurysm was computed. AAA growth under infield and outfield exposure was compared to patients with AAA and cancer that did not receive RT (no-RT control) and to an external noncancer AAA reference cohort.

RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2020, a total of 38 AAA patients who had received well-documented RT for their malignancy were identified. AAA growth was considerably reduced for infield patients (n = 18) compared to outfield patients (n = 20), albeit not significantly (0.8 ± 1.0 vs. 1.3 ± 1.6 mm/year, p = 0.28). Overall, annual AAA growth in RT patients was lower compared to no-RT control patients (1.1 ± 1.5 vs. 1.8 ± 2.2 mm/year, p = 0.06) and significantly reduced compared to the reference cohort (1.1 ± 1.5 vs. 2.7 ± 2.1 mm/year, p < 0.001). The pattern of AAA growth reduction due to RT was corroborated in linear regression analyses correcting for initial AAA diameter. A further investigation with respect to dose-dependency of radiation effects on AAA growth, however, revealed no apparent association.

CONCLUSION

In this study, both infield and outfield radiation exposure were associated with reduced AAA growth. This finding warrants further investigation, both in a larger scale clinical cohort and on a molecular level.

Prognostic impact of neurocognitive disorders in older patients with cancer: the ELCAPA prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prognostic value of neurocognitive disorder (NCD) for 12 month-overall mortality in patients aged 70 or more with a solid cancer.

DESIGN

prospective, observational, multicenter cohort.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We analyzed data from the ELCAPA longitudinal multicenter observational cohort of patients aged 70 or over, referred for a geriatric assessment (GA) before a new cancer treatment modality between January 31st, 2007, and December 29th, 2017. We defined the baseline NCD in four classes: no NCD, mild NCD, moderate NCD, and major NCD, based on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, memory complaint, and the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) score.

STATISTICAL METHODS

We compared the baseline characteristics of patients according to NCD classes, globally and by pairs (with Bonferroni' correction). Prognosis value of NCD classes were analysed by using univariable and then multivariable 12 month survival analysis with age as time-variable and with and without adjustement for the treatment strategy (curative, palliative or exclusive supportive care).

RESULTS

2784 patients with solid-cancer were included, with a median [interquartile range] age of 82 [78;86]. 36% of the patients were free of NCD, 34% had a mild NCD, 17% had a moderate NCD, and 13% had a major NCD. We identified the following independent prognostic factors for 12 month-overall mortality: NCD (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for a major NCD = 1.54 [1.19-1.98] (p < 0.001), type of cancer, metastatic status, inpatient consultation, poor general health (assessed as the level of fatigue and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status [ECOG-PS]), greater weight loss, palliative treatment, and exclusive supportive care. Additional adjustment for the treatment strategy did not greatly change the strength of the association of a major NCD with 12 month-overall mortality (HR [95%CI] = 1.78 [1.39-2.29] (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the presence of a major NCD has direct prognostic value (independently of other geriatric factors, the type of cancer and the treatment strategy) in older patients with a solid cancer.

Quantifying depressive symptoms on incidence of common chronic diseases and multimorbidity patterns in middle-aged and elderly Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

Depressive symptoms are highly prevalent and increase risks of various morbidities. However, the extent to which depressive symptoms could account for incidence of these chronic conditions, in particular multimorbidity patterns, remains to be examined and quantified.

METHODS

For this cohort analysis, we included 9024-14,093 participants aged 45 years and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the longitudinal associations between depressive symptoms and 13 common chronic diseases and 4 multimorbidity patterns. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) combining the information on both exposure prevalence and risk association were estimated to quantify the magnitude of the burden of these conditions attributable to depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Depressive symptoms were associated with increased risks of liver disease, stroke, heart problem, asthma, diabetes, arthritis, kidney disease, chronic lung disease, digestive disease, dyslipidemia, and memory-related disease, and the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) and PAFs (95% CIs) ranged from 1.15 (1.05-1.26) to 1.64 (1.38-1.96) and 5% (0-10%) to 17% (6-28%), respectively. In addition, individuals with depressive symptoms had elevated risks of the cardiometabolic-cancer pattern, the cerebrovascular-memory pattern, the articular-visceral organ pattern, and the respiratory pattern, with respective HRs (95% CIs) of 1.26 (1.11-1.42), 1.34 (1.07-1.69), 1.45 (1.29-1.63), and 2.01 (1.36-2.96), and respective PAFs (95% CIs) of 5% (0-10%), 8% (-4-21%), 12% (7-17%), and 20% (5-35%).

CONCLUSION

Depressive symptoms contribute substantially to the burden across a broad range of chronic diseases as well as different multimorbidity patterns in middle-aged and older Chinese.

Creatine supplementation for optimization of physical function in the patient at risk of functional disability: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of creatine replacement through supplementation for the optimization of physical function in the population at risk of functional disability is unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and CINAHL from inception to November 2022. Studies included were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing creatine supplementation with placebos in older adults and adults with chronic disease. The primary outcome was physical function measured by the sit-to-stand test after pooling data using random-effects modeling. We also performed a Bayesian meta-analysis to describe the treatment effect in probability terms. Secondary outcomes included other measures of physical function, muscle function, and body composition. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool.

RESULTS

We identified 33 RCTs, comprising 1076 participants. From six trials reporting the primary outcome, the pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) was 0.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-1.00; I2 = 62%; P = 0.04); using weakly informative priors, the posterior probability that creatine supplementation improves physical function was 66.7%. Upper-body muscle strength (SMD: 0.25; 95% CI: 0.06-0.44; I2 = 0%; P = 0.01), handgrip strength (SMD 0.23; 95% CI: 0.01-0.45; I2 = 0%; P = 0.04), and lean tissue mass (MD 1.08 kg; 95% CI: 0.77-1.38; I2 = 26%; P < 0.01) improved with creatine supplementation. The quality of evidence for all outcomes was low or very low because of a high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Creatine supplementation improves sit-to-stand performance, muscle function, and lean tissue mass. It is crucial to conduct high-quality prospective RCTs to confirm these hypotheses (PROSPERO number, CRD42023354929).

Long-Term Effect of Systemic Comorbidity on Glaucoma Medication Adherence

PURPOSE

To determine whether systemic comorbidity is associated with reduced adherence to glaucoma medication and whether this decrease varies according to the number of comorbidity and the time after glaucoma onset.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

METHODS

Setting: Population-based.

STUDY POPULATION

All patients with confirmed newly diagnosed glaucoma in one or both eyes were identified using National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data from Taiwan.

OBSERVATION PROCEDURE

Individuals with newly diagnosed glaucoma were followed up for 5 years from onset. The study period was from January 1, 2011, to December, 31, 2020. Patient comorbidities were identified using the Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index. Adherence was measured using the medication possession ratio (MPR). The MPR was calculated by dividing the total number of days a patient had a supply of glaucoma medication by 365. Data for the MPR were extracted from NHI outpatient and drug records.

RESULTS

This study included a total of 50 408 patients. Compared with patients without comorbidity, patients with at least 1 comorbidity exhibited higher MPR in the first 2 years following glaucoma onset. However, their MPR decreased in the long term, specifically in the fourth and fifth years after onset. Additionally, the degree of nonadherence increased with the number of comorbidities. Patients with ≥4 comorbidities had significantly lower glaucoma medication adherence, with reductions of 6.4% (P = .033) and 11.8% (P < .001) in the fourth and fifth years after glaucoma onset, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The presence of comorbidity can reduce glaucoma medication adherence by up to 12% in the long term. More comorbidities may increase the burden of managing chronic diseases; as a result, treatment for glaucoma may not receive priority due to the absence of clear symptoms of the condition.

Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province

Objectives

The characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases.

Methods

This study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30-79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities.

Results

The overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19-3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85-53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22-15.31).

Conclusion

The prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions.

Pulmonary hypertension survival and hospitalisations in people living with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

People living with HIV (PLHIV) have a higher risk of developing pulmonary hypertension (PH) with subsequent poorer prognosis. This review aimed to determine the (1) survival outcomes and (2) proportion of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalisations of PLHIV and PH.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies reporting survival outcomes for PLHIV and PH. Electronic databases (Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, Global Index Medicus and Cochrane Library), trial registries and conference proceedings were searched until 22 July 2023. We pooled similar measures of effect, assessed apriori subgroups and used meta-regression to determine mortality and associated variables.

RESULTS

5248 studies were identified; 28 studies were included with a total of 5459 PLHIV and PH. The mean survival (95% CI) of PLHIV and PH was 37.4 months (29.9 to 44.8). Participants alive at 1, 2 and 3 years were 85.8% (74.1% to 95.0%), 75.2% (61.9% to 86.7%) and 61.9% (51.8% to 71.6%), respectively. ED visits and hospitalisation rates were 73.3% (32.5% to 99.9%) and 71.2% (42.4% to 94.2%), respectively. More severe disease, measured by echocardiogram, was associated with poorer prognosis (β -0.01, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.00, p=0.009). Survival was higher in high-income countries compared with lower-income countries (β 0.50, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.73, p<0.001) and in Europe compared with the America (β 0.56, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.75, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms poor prognosis and high healthcare utilisation for PLHIV and PH. Prognosis is associated with country income level, geographic region and PH severity. This highlights the importance of screening in this population.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023395023.

Comorbidity of patients with noncommunicable diseases in general practice. Eurasian guidelines

Создание руководства поддержано Советом по терапевтическим наукам отделения клинической медицины Российской академии наук.

Impact of digital services on healthcare and social welfare: An umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Digital services can be effective and cost-efficient options for treating non-communicable diseases, but generalizability is limited due to heterogeneous treatment effects. This umbrella review aims to evaluate the impact of digital services on population health, costs, and patient and healthcare professional satisfaction, and to identify facilitators and barriers to using digital services in healthcare and social welfare.

METHODS

The protocol of the study was registered on the 4th of September 2022 to the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, PROSPERO (CRD42022355635). The review was performed using the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, Cochrane, Ovid Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science in June 2022. The methodological quality of the included reviews was assessed. The impact of digital services was categorized as no evidence, no dominance, and mixed and positive effect. Inductive content analysis was used to identify facilitators and barriers.

RESULTS

A total of 66 studies were included in the review, 64 % of which were evaluated as high quality. Studies on the impact of digital services in social welfare were not identified. Sixty-five percent of reviews evaluated the impact of digital services on population health with mixed effects; 21 % were on costs with mixed effects; 27 % were on patient satisfaction with positive effects; and 7.6 % were on healthcare professionals' satisfaction with mixed effects. Various features, allocation, end-user support, organized services, and service development facilitated the use of digital services. Correspondingly, barriers were related to service limitations, digital competency, funding- and service strategies, resources and change management.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to usual care, digital services had a mixed impact on population health and costs with high satisfaction in patients. Mixed healthcare professionals' satisfaction was associated with the use of digital services, and it was less studied. To ensure successful implementation and sustainability of digital services, attention must be paid to address barriers and supporting facilitators at all levels.

Multiple cardiovascular risk factor care in 55 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally-representative, individual-level data from 280,783 adults

The prevalence of multiple age-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is high among individuals living in low- and middle-income countries. We described receipt of healthcare services for and management of hypertension and diabetes among individuals living with these conditions using individual-level data from 55 nationally representative population-based surveys (2009-2019) with measured blood pressure (BP) and diabetes biomarker. We restricted our analysis to non-pregnant individuals aged 40-69 years and defined three mutually exclusive groups (i.e., hypertension only, diabetes only, and both hypertension-diabetes) to compare individuals living with concurrent hypertension and diabetes to individuals with each condition separately. We included 90,086 individuals who lived with hypertension only, 11,975 with diabetes only, and 16,228 with hypertension-diabetes. We estimated the percentage of individuals who were aware of their diagnosis, used pharmacological therapy, or achieved appropriate hypertension and diabetes management. A greater percentage of individuals with hypertension-diabetes were fully diagnosed (64.1% [95% CI: 61.8-66.4]) than those with hypertension only (47.4% [45.3-49.6]) or diabetes only (46.7% [44.1-49.2]). Among the hypertension-diabetes group, pharmacological treatment was higher for individual conditions (38.3% [95% CI: 34.8-41.8] using antihypertensive and 42.3% [95% CI: 39.4-45.2] using glucose-lowering medications) than for both conditions jointly (24.6% [95% CI: 22.1-27.2]).The percentage of individuals achieving appropriate management was highest in the hypertension group (17.6% [16.4-18.8]), followed by diabetes (13.3% [10.7-15.8]) and hypertension-diabetes (6.6% [5.4-7.8]) groups. Although health systems in LMICs are reaching a larger share of individuals living with both hypertension and diabetes than those living with just one of these conditions, only seven percent achieved both BP and blood glucose treatment targets. Implementation of cost-effective population-level interventions that shift clinical care paradigm from disease-specific to comprehensive CVD care are urgently needed for all three groups, especially for those with multiple CVD risk factors.

The impact of comorbidities and economic inequality on COVID-19 mortality in Mexico: a machine learning approach

Introduction

Studies from different parts of the world have shown that some comorbidities are associated with fatal cases of COVID-19. However, the prevalence rates of comorbidities are different around the world, therefore, their contribution to COVID-19 mortality is different. Socioeconomic factors may influence the prevalence of comorbidities; therefore, they may also influence COVID-19 mortality.

Methods

This study conducted feature analysis using two supervised machine learning classification algorithms, Random Forest and XGBoost, to examine the comorbidities and level of economic inequalities associated with fatal cases of COVID-19 in Mexico. The dataset used was collected by the National Epidemiology Center from February 2020 to November 2022, and includes more than 20 million observations and 40 variables describing the characteristics of the individuals who underwent COVID-19 testing or treatment. In addition, socioeconomic inequalities were measured using the normalized marginalization index calculated by the National Population Council and the deprivation index calculated by NASA.

Results

The analysis shows that diabetes and hypertension were the main comorbidities defining the mortality of COVID-19, furthermore, socioeconomic inequalities were also important characteristics defining the mortality. Similar features were found with Random Forest and XGBoost.

Discussion

It is imperative to implement programs aimed at reducing inequalities as well as preventable comorbidities to make the population more resilient to future pandemics. The results apply to regions or countries with similar levels of inequality or comorbidity prevalence.

Factors That Influence Meeting the Recommended Weekly Physical Activity Target Among Older People With Physical Multimorbidity: Evidence From 6 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

BACKGROUND

There is a scarcity of studies on the association between physical multimorbidity and lower levels of physical activity among older adults from low- and middle-income countries, while the potential mediating variables in this association are largely unknown.

METHODS

Cross-sectional, community-based, nationally representative data from the World Health Organization Study on global AGEing and adult health were analyzed. Data on 11 chronic physical conditions were collected. Scoring <150 minutes of moderate- to high-intensity physical activity per week was considered low physical activity. Multivariable logistic regression and mediation analysis were done to assess associations and quality of life measures which might influence these associations.

RESULTS

Data on 14,585 people aged ≥65 years were analyzed (mean [SD] age 72.6 (11.5) y, maximum age 114 y; 55.0% women). After adjustment for potential confounders, compared with no chronic conditions, ≥3 conditions were associated with a significant 1.59 to 2.42 times higher odds for low physical activity. Finally, mobility mediated the largest proportion of the association between ≥3 chronic physical conditions and low physical activity (mediated percentage 50.7%), followed by activities of daily living disability (30.7%), cognition (24.0%), affect (23.6%), and pain/discomfort (22.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Physical multimorbidity was associated with higher odds for low physical activity among older adults residing in low- and middle-income countries. Mobility, disability, cognition, affect, and pain/discomfort explained the largest proportion of this association. Given the universal benefits of regular and sustained participation in physical activity, it would be prudent to implement interventions among older people with physical multimorbidity to increase levels of physical activity. Future studies should assess the impact of addressing the identified potential mediators among people with multimorbidity on physical activity levels.

Associations of multimorbidity with body pain, sleep duration, and depression among middle-aged and older adults in China

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity, body pain, sleep disturbance, and depression are major clinical and public health challenges. This paper aimed to examine the associations of multimorbidity with body pain, sleep duration, and depression; and whether the associations varied by socioeconomic status.

METHODS

Data was derived from four waves of the nationally representative China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), including participants aged 45 years and older in 2011. 12 physical non-communicable diseases and 1 mental chronic disease were used to measure multimorbidity. Educational attainment and annual per-capita household consumption expenditure were employed as proxies for socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Of the 16,931 participants aged 45 + years old, the proportion of people with multimorbidity was 37.87% at baseline. The number of multimorbidity increased with older age and higher socioeconomic status. Multimorbidity was associated with more body pain (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.45-1.61), and decreased sleep duration (β = -0.26, 95% CI = -0.36--0.15). Furthermore, multimorbidity was associated with increased depression risks (odds ratio (OR) = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.44-1.64, adjusted for sociodemographic variables), with the mediating effects of the number of body pain and sleep duration. The associations between multimorbidity and depression persisted among different socioeconomic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity was associated with increased body pain, decreased sleep duration, and further led to increased depression risks. It is necessary to pay attention to the multimorbidity of middle-aged and older adults, relieve their body pain, guarantee sufficient sleep, so as to reduce depression risks.

Half of all hip and knee arthroplasty patients may be potential day-case candidates: a nationwide register study of 166,730 procedures

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The overall potential pool of day-case candidates on a national level in hip and knee arthroplasty is unknown. We aimed to estimate the proportion of hip and knee arthroplasty patients eligible for day-case surgery based on contemporary widely used criteria and determine whether there has been a change in the proportion of eligible patients over time and, secondarily, to investigate the proportion of eligible patients discharged on the day of surgery.

METHODS

Based on data from the Danish National Patient Register, we identified all patients undergoing primary unilateral hip or knee arthroplasty from January 2010 to March 2020. Using a modification of day-case eligibility criteria proposed by a national multicenter collaboration, we sorted patients into either day-case eligible or ineligible. A day-case procedure was defined as discharge on the day of surgery.

RESULTS

We included patients comprising a total of 166,730 primary total hip (THA), total knee (TKA), and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). 48% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48-49) were eligible for day-case surgery, with a decline from 50% (CI 49-51) in 2010 to 46% (CI 46-47) eligible in 2019. More UKA patients were day-case eligible (55%, CI 54-56) than THA (47%, CI 47-48) and TKA patients (49%, CI 48-49). A maximum of 8.0% (CI 7.4-8.5) of eligible patients were discharged on the day of surgery in 2019.

CONCLUSION

48% of the Danish hip and knee arthroplasty patients were potential day-case candidates, with a small decline in eligibility from 50% in 2010 to 46% in 2019. Day of surgery discharge among day-case eligible patients peaked at 8% in 2019. Thus, the potential for more day-case surgery seems large.

Subjective memory complaints and medication adherence among hypertensive Korean older adults with multimorbidity: mediating effect of depression and social support

BACKGROUND & AIM(S)

Medication adherence (MA) is a key factor in maintaining adequate blood pressure and preventing complications. However, some older adults experience difficulties in taking medicine properly due to declines in cognitive function. Although subjective memory complaints (SMC) are recognized as early markers of cognitive impairment, previous studies concerning the relationship between MA and cognitive function have focused only on objective cognitive function. Furthermore, while depression has a high correlation with SMC, low MA, and social support, there is limited evidence on their relationship. This study aims to understand the effect of SMC on MA and the mediating effect of depression and social support.

METHOD(S)

This study is a descriptive cross-sectional investigation. A sample of 195 community-dwelling hypertensive older adults with multimorbidity from 3 community senior centers in Gwangju, South Korea were recruited through convenience sampling. Data was collected through face-to-face survey from January to March 2018. The PROCESS macro v4.2 program [Model 6] was used to analyze the mediating effect of depression and social support in the relationship between SMC and MA. Data analysis was performed using SPSS/WIN 26.0 and STATA MP 17.0.

RESULTS

The average MA was 6.74. There were significant differences in MA according to awareness of prescribed drugs, awareness of side effects, insomnia, and healthcare accessibility. SMC was positively correlated with depression, while social support and MA were negatively correlated. While depression was a significant mediator of the effect of SMC on MA, the mediating effect of social support was not significant. The multiple mediation effect of depression and social support was not significant.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that medication management of older adults in community settings should be accompanied by a comprehensive health assessment of associated factors. Health professionals should explore strategies to improve memory as well as prevent and alleviate depression to increase MA among hypertensive older adults with multimorbidity.

A model-based approach to estimating the prevalence of disease combinations in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The development of strategies to better detect and manage patients with multiple long-term conditions requires estimates of the most prevalent condition combinations. However, standard meta-analysis tools are not well suited to synthesising heterogeneous multimorbidity data.

METHODS

We developed a statistical model to synthesise data on associations between diseases and nationally representative prevalence estimates and applied the model to South Africa. Published and unpublished data were reviewed, and meta-regression analysis was conducted to assess pairwise associations between 10 conditions: arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, diabetes, HIV, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and tuberculosis. The national prevalence of each condition in individuals aged 15 and older was then independently estimated, and these estimates were integrated with the ORs from the meta-regressions in a statistical model, to estimate the national prevalence of each condition combination.

RESULTS

The strongest disease associations in South Africa are between COPD and asthma (OR 14.6, 95% CI 10.3 to 19.9), COPD and IHD (OR 9.2, 95% CI 8.3 to 10.2) and IHD and stroke (OR 7.2, 95% CI 5.9 to 8.4). The most prevalent condition combinations in individuals aged 15+ are hypertension and arthritis (7.6%, 95% CI 5.8% to 9.5%), hypertension and diabetes (7.5%, 95% CI 6.4% to 8.6%) and hypertension and HIV (4.8%, 95% CI 3.3% to 6.6%). The average numbers of comorbidities are greatest in the case of COPD (2.3, 95% CI 2.1 to 2.6), stroke (2.1, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.4) and IHD (1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2).

CONCLUSION

South Africa has high levels of HIV, hypertension, diabetes and arthritis, by international standards, and these are reflected in the most prevalent condition combinations. However, less prevalent conditions such as COPD, stroke and IHD contribute disproportionately to the multimorbidity burden, with high rates of comorbidity. This modelling approach can be used in other settings to characterise the most important disease combinations and levels of comorbidity.