Data Resource Profile: The Scottish National Prescribing Information System (PIS)

Patterns of initial and first-intensifying antidiabetic drug utilization among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Scotland, 2010-2020: A retrospective population-based cohort study

AIM

To evaluate the utilization and prescribing patterns of antidiabetic drugs (ADDs) for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at treatment initiation and first intensification.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed using linked routinely collected data of patients with T2DM who received ADDs between January 2010 and December 2020 in Scotland. The prescribing patterns were quantified using frequency/percentages, absolute/relative change, and trend tests.

RESULTS

Overall, 145 909 new ADD users were identified, with approximately 91% (N = 132 382) of patients receiving a single ADD at first treatment initiation. Metformin was the most often prescribed monotherapy (N = 118 737, 89.69%). A total of 50 731 patients (39.40%) who were started on metformin (N = 46 730/118 737, 39.36%) or sulphonylurea (SU; N = 4001/10 029, 39.89%) monotherapy had their treatment intensified with one or more additional ADD. Most initial-metformin (45 963/46 730; 98.36%) and initial-SU users (3894/4001; 97.33%) who added further drugs were intensified with single ADDs. SUs (22 197/45 963; 48.29%) were the most common first-intensifying monotherapy after initial metformin use, but these were replaced by sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in 2019 (SGLT2 inhibitors: 2039/6065, 33.62% vs. SUs: 1924/6065, 31.72%). Metformin was the most frequently added monotherapy to initial SU use (2924/3894, 75.09%). Although the majority of patients received a single ADD, the use of combination therapy significantly increased over time. Nevertheless, there was a significant increasing trend towards prescribing the newer ADD classes (SGLT2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors) as monotherapy or in combination compared with the older ones (SUs, insulin, thiazolidinediones) at both drug initiation and first intensification.

CONCLUSIONS

An overall increasing trend in prescribing the newer ADD classes compared to older ADDs was observed. However, metformin remained the most commonly prescribed first-line ADD, while SGLT2 inhibitors replaced SUs as the most common add-on therapy to initial metformin use in 2019.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilisation and quality of antibiotic use in the Scottish primary care setting: a population-based segmented interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate use of antibiotics is expected to increase during the COVID-19 pandemic, but there are limited data on COVID-19's long-term impact. We assessed the impact of COVID-19 on the quantity and quality of antibiotic use in Scotland.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A segmented interrupted time series was applied to monthly dispensed antibiotics using prescription cost analysis data from March/2019 to March/2023. Antibiotic use was quantified using the number of items dispensed/1000 inhabitants (TIDs) and defined daily dose/1000 inhabitants/day (DIDs). The quality of antibiotic use was assessed using key quality indicators including the WHO AWaRe classification, proportion of broad-spectrum and "4C"-antibiotics.

RESULTS

Overall, for all antibiotics, there was a non-significant increase in TIDs and DIDs before the first lockdown (March/2020) (β1), but a decline in the level immediately after the first (β2) and second lockdowns (β4) (November/2020), albeit non-significant. However, a significant increase in the time trend after the second lockdown (β5) for all antibiotic classes was observed. COVID-19 had no negative impact on AWaRe utilisation, with the proportion of all antibiotics from the Access group increasing from 76% in March/2019 to 90% in March/2023. The proportion of "4C" antibiotic reduced significantly after the second lockdown.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither the utilisation nor the quality of total antibiotic use appeared to have been significantly affected by COVID-19.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on HIV Test Uptake Among People Who Inject Drugs in the Context of an HIV Outbreak

Glasgow, Scotland's largest city, has been experiencing an HIV outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID) since 2015. A key focus of the public health response has been to increase HIV testing among those at risk of infection. Our aim was to assess the impact of COVID-19 on HIV testing among PWID in Glasgow. HIV test uptake in the last 12 months was quantified among: (1) PWID recruited in six Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative (NESI) surveys (n = 6110); linked laboratory data for (2) people prescribed opioid agonist therapy (OAT) (n = 14,527) and (3) people hospitalised for an injecting-related hospital admission (IRHA) (n = 12,621) across four time periods: pre-outbreak (2010-2014); early-outbreak (2015-2016); ongoing-outbreak (2017-2019); and COVID-19 (2020-June 21). From the pre to ongoing period, HIV testing increased: the highest among people recruited in NESI (from 28% to 56%) and on OAT (from 17% to 54%) while the lowest was among people with an IRHA (from 15% to 42%). From the ongoing to the COVID-19 period, HIV testing decreased markedly among people prescribed OAT, from 54% to 37% (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.48-0.53), but increased marginally among people with an IRHA from 42% to 47% (aOR 1.19, 95% CI 1.08-1.31). In conclusion, progress in increasing testing in response to the HIV outbreak has been eroded by COVID-19. Adoption of a linked data approach could be warranted in other settings to inform efforts to eliminate HIV transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake and risks of severe COVID-19 disease among people prescribed opioid agonist therapy in Scotland

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence quantifying the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among people with opioid dependence. We examined vaccine uptake and severe disease (admission to critical care or death with COVID-19) among individuals prescribed opioid agonist therapy (OAT).

METHOD

A case-control design was used to examine vaccine uptake in those prescribed OAT compared with the general population, and the association between severe disease and OAT. In both analyses, 10 controls from the general population were matched (to each OAT recipient and COVID-19 case, respectively) according to socio-demographic factors. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate rate ratios (RR) for severe disease.

RESULTS

Vaccine uptake was markedly lower in the OAT cohort (dose 1: 67%, dose 2: 53% and dose 3: 31%) compared with matched controls (76%, 72% and 57%, respectively). Those prescribed OAT within the last 5 years, compared with those not prescribed, had increased risk of severe COVID-19 (RR 3.38, 95% CI 2.75 to 4.15), particularly in the fourth wave (RR 6.58, 95% CI 4.20 to 10.32); adjustment for comorbidity and vaccine status attenuated this risk (adjusted RR (aRR) 2.43, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.02; wave 4 aRR 3.78, 95% CI 2.30 to 6.20). Increased risk was also observed for those prescribed OAT previously (>3 months ago) compared with recently (aRR 1.74, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.71).

CONCLUSIONS

The widening gap in vaccine coverage for those prescribed OAT, compared with the general population, is likely to have exacerbated the risk of severe COVID-19 in this population over the pandemic. However, continued OAT use may have provided protection from severe COVID-19 among those with opioid dependence.

Psychotropic prescribing after hospital discharge in survivors of critical illness, a retrospective cohort study (2012-2019)

Background

Many people survive critical illness with the burden of new or worsened mental health issues and sleep disturbances. We examined the frequency of psychotropic prescribing after critical illness, comparing critical care to non-critical care hospitalised survivors, and whether this varied in important subgroups.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 23,340 critical care and 367,185 non-critical care hospitalised adults from 2012 through 2019 in Lothian, Scotland, who survived to discharge.

Results

One-third of critical care survivors (32%; 7527/23,340) received a psychotropic prescription within 90 days after hospital discharge (25% antidepressants; 14% anxiolytics/hypnotics; 4% antipsychotics/mania medicines). In contrast, 15% (54,589/367,185) of non-critical care survivors received a psychotropic prescription (12% antidepressants; 5% anxiolytics/hypnotics; 2% antipsychotics/mania medicines). Among patients without psychotropic prescriptions within 180 days prior to hospitalisation, after hospital discharge, the critical care group had a higher incidence of psychotropic prescription (10.3%; 1610/15,609) compared with the non-critical care group (3.2%; 9743/307,429); unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 3.39, 95% CI: 3.22-3.57. After adjustment for potential confounders, the risk remained elevated (adjusted HR 2.03, 95% CI: 1.91-2.16), persisted later in follow-up (90-365 days; adjusted HR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.30-1.46), and was more pronounced in those without recorded comorbidities (adjusted HR 3.49, 95% CI: 3.22-3.78).

Conclusions

Critical care survivors have a higher risk of receiving psychotropic prescriptions than hospitalised patients, with a significant proportion receiving benzodiazepines and other hypnotics. Future research should focus on the requirement for and safety of psychotropic medicines in survivors of critical illness, to help guide policy for clinical practice.

Pharmacological treatments for alcohol dependence: Evidence on uptake, inequalities and comparative effectiveness from a UK population-based cohort

INTRODUCTION

We assessed the prevalence of prescribing of certain medications for alcohol dependence and the extent of any inequalities in receiving prescriptions for individuals with such a diagnosis. Further, we compared the effectiveness of two of the most prescribed medications (acamprosate and disulfiram) for alcohol dependence and assessed whether there is inequality in prescribing either of them.

METHODS

We used a nationwide dataset on prescriptions and hospitalisations in Scotland, UK (N = 19,748). We calculated the percentage of patients receiving alcohol dependence prescriptions after discharge, both overall and by socio-economic groups. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the odds of receiving any alcohol-dependence prescription and the comparative odds of receiving acamprosate or disulfiram. Comparative effectiveness in avoiding future alcohol-related hospitalisations (N = 11,239) was assessed using Cox modelling with statistical adjustment for potential confounding.

RESULTS

Upto 7% of hospitalised individuals for alcohol use disorder received prescriptions for alcohol dependence after being discharged. Least deprived socio-economic groups had relatively more individuals receiving prescriptions. Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence existed, especially across sex and comorbidities: males had 12% (odds ratio [OR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96) and those with a history of mental health hospitalisations had 10% (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.98) lower odds of receiving prescriptions after an alcohol-related hospitalisation. Prescribing disulfiram was superior to prescribing acamprosate in preventing alcohol-related hospitalisations (hazard ratio ranged between 0.60 and 0.81 across analyses). Disulfiram was relatively less likely prescribed to those from more deprived areas.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence exists in Scotland with lower prescribing to men and disulfiram prescribed more to those from least deprived areas.

Evaluating the effect of inequalities in oral anti-coagulant prescribing on outcomes in people with atrial fibrillation

Aims

Whilst anti-coagulation is typically recommended for thromboprophylaxis in atrial fibrillation (AF), it is often never prescribed or prematurely discontinued. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of inequalities in anti-coagulant prescribing by assessing stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and bleeding risk in people with AF who continue anti-coagulation compared with those who stop transiently, permanently, or never start.

Methods and results

This retrospective cohort study utilized linked Scottish healthcare data to identify adults diagnosed with AF between January 2010 and April 2016, with a CHA2DS2-VASC score of ≥2. They were sub-categorized based on anti-coagulant exposure: never started, continuous, discontinuous, and cessation. Inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox regression and competing risk regression was utilized to compare SSE and bleeding risks between cohorts during 5-year follow-up. Of an overall cohort of 47 427 people, 26 277 (55.41%) were never anti-coagulated, 7934 (16.72%) received continuous anti-coagulation, 9107 (19.2%) temporarily discontinued, and 4109 (8.66%) permanently discontinued. Lower socio-economic status, elevated frailty score, and age ≥ 75 were associated with a reduced likelihood of initiation and continuation of anti-coagulation. Stroke/systemic embolism risk was significantly greater in those with discontinuous anti-coagulation, compared with continuous [subhazard ratio (SHR): 2.65; 2.39-2.94]. In the context of a major bleeding event, there was no significant difference in bleeding risk between the cessation and continuous cohorts (SHR 0.94; 0.42-2.14).

Conclusion

Our data suggest significant inequalities in anti-coagulation prescribing, with substantial opportunity to improve initiation and continuation. Decision-making should be patient-centred and must recognize that discontinuation or cessation is associated with considerable thromboembolic risk not offset by mitigated bleeding risk.

Previous psychiatric hospitalizations as risk factors for single and multiple future alcohol-related hospitalizations in patients with alcohol use disorders

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

People with alcohol use disorder (AUD) often have co-occurring psychiatric conditions. The association between psychiatric conditions and AUD relapse has not yet been fully explored. This study aimed to quantify different psychiatric comorbidities as risk factors for first and multiple AUD rehospitalizations in patients already hospitalized once for AUD.

METHODS

We used a nation-wide routine health-care database in Scotland, UK, between 2010 and 2019. Individuals with a first hospitalization for AUD (codes F10.0-9 in the ICD-10 codes) were checked for previous hospitalizations where the main or co-occurring cause was a psychiatric condition (any other F0-F99 code in ICD-10). The final cohort included 23 529 patients, 18 620 of whom did not have a history of any other psychiatric comorbidity. First, individuals with a history of any previous psychiatric hospitalization were grouped and compared with those without on the basis of time to AUD rehospitalization. Then, individuals with different histories of psychiatric hospitalization were compared with each other. Cox and Prentice, Williams and Peterson gap-time models were used for single and multiple AUD rehospitalizations, respectively.

RESULTS

The AUD rehospitalization rate in individuals with a previous psychiatric hospitalization was 8% higher compared with those without [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.14]. The difference in rehospitalization rate reduced following the first rehospitalization (HR at second rehospitalization from first: 0.95, 95% CI = 0.87-1.04 and HR at third rehospitalization from second: 0.94, 95% CI = 0.84-1.07). Mood disorders and neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders were associated with a 54% (HR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.38-1.72) and 39% (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.17-1.66) increase in the risk of a first AUD rehospitalization. Other conditions, such as disorders due to psychoactive substance use or schizophrenia, were associated with decreases in future AUD rehospitalization (HR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.82-0.97 and HR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.58-1.16, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with AUD appear to have different rates of AUD rehospitalization based on different co-occurring psychiatric conditions. Addiction-related characteristics may be more relevant risk indicators for multiple AUD readmission than psychiatric comorbidities.

Does cycle commuting reduce the risk of mental ill-health? An instrumental variable analysis using distance to nearest cycle path

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have linked cycling with improved mental wellbeing but these studies tend to use cross-sectional survey data that have small sample sizes and self-reported health measures, and are potentially susceptible to omitted-variable bias and reverse causation. We use an instrumental variable approach and an objective measure of mental ill-health taken from linked administrative data to ask: 'Does cycle commuting reduce the risk of mental ill-health?'

METHODS

Our study links data on commuting in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the Scottish population census with mental health prescriptions from the National Health Service Prescribing Information System records. We use road distance from home to nearest cycle path as an instrumental variable for cycle commuting.

RESULTS

In total, 378 253 people aged 16-74 years living and working in the City of Edinburgh and Glasgow City council areas at the 2011 census were included in our study; 1.85% of commuters in Glasgow and 4.8% of commuters in Edinburgh cycled to work. Amongst cyclists, 9% had a prescription for mental health compared with 14% amongst non-cyclists. Using a bivariate probit model, we estimate a mean average reduction in prescriptions for antidepressants and/or anxiolytics in the 5 years following the census of -15.1% (95% CI: -15.3% to -15.0%) amongst cycle commuters compared with those who use any other mode to commute.

CONCLUSIONS

This work suggests that cycle commuting is causally related to reduced mental ill-health and provides further evidence in support of the promotion of active travel to encourage commuters travelling shorter distances to shift to cycle commutes.

Vaginal Estrogen Therapy Use and Survival in Females With Breast Cancer

Importance

Genitourinary syndrome of menopause can be treated with vaginal estrogen therapy. However, there are concerns about the safety of vaginal estrogen therapy in patients with breast cancer.

Objective

To determine whether the risk of breast cancer-specific mortality was higher in females with breast cancer who used vaginal estrogen therapy vs females with breast cancer who did not use hormone replacement therapy (HRT).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study analyzed 2 large cohorts, one each in Scotland and Wales, of females aged 40 to 79 years with newly diagnosed breast cancer. These population-based cohorts were identified from national cancer registry records from 2010 to 2017 in Scotland and from 2000 to 2016 in Wales and were followed up for breast cancer-specific mortality until 2020. Females were excluded if they had a previous cancer diagnosis (except nonmelanoma skin cancer). Data analysis was performed between August 2022 and August 2023.

Exposure

Use of vaginal estrogen therapy, including vaginal tablets and creams, was ascertained from pharmacy dispensing records of the Prescribing Information System for the Scotland cohort and from general practice prescription records for the Wales cohort.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was time to breast cancer-specific mortality, which was obtained from national mortality records. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for breast cancer-specific mortality, comparing vaginal estrogen therapy users with HRT nonusers and adjusting for confounders, including cancer stage and grade.

Results

The 2 cohorts comprised 49 237 females with breast cancer (between 40 and 79 years of age) and 5795 breast cancer-specific deaths. Five percent of patients with breast cancer used vaginal estrogen therapy after breast cancer diagnosis. In vaginal estrogen therapy users compared with HRT nonusers, there was no evidence of a higher risk of breast cancer-specific mortality in the pooled fully adjusted model (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.63-0.94).

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this study showed no evidence of increased early breast cancer-specific mortality in patients who used vaginal estrogen therapy compared with patients who did not use HRT. This finding may provide some reassurance to prescribing clinicians and support the guidelines suggesting that vaginal estrogen therapy can be considered in patients with breast cancer and genitourinary symptoms.

Time-varying risks of infection in patients as they proceed through the phases of 'pre-RA': results from the Scottish Early RA inception cohort

ObjectiveRheumatoid arthritis (RA) develops after progressing through sequential 'pre-RA' phases. The mechanisms driving progression from one phase to the next remain poorly understood. This study examined the longitudinal rates of community and hospital infections in patients during sequential stages of pre-RA and early arthritis.

METHODS

The Scottish Early RA inception cohort recruited patients with newly diagnosed RA. Incidences of infection were determined from community antibiotic prescriptions and serious infections were determined by hospital discharge coding. Dates of diagnosis and symptom onset allowed identification of asymptomatic/symptomatic pre-RA and early arthritis eras to analyse infection rates over time compared with age- and sex-matched controls.

RESULTS

The incidence rate ratio (IRR) seen in the period 0-6 months prior to symptom onset was 1.28 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.42). In 'symptomatic pre-RA', the IRR was 1.33 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.49) which persisted into 'early arthritis'. The rate of hospital admissions was numerically greater in 'pre-RA' and significantly greater in 'early arthritis' (IRR 1.82, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.46).

CONCLUSION

Antibiotic risk is increased in patients with 'pre-RA' at least 6 months before symptoms develop, and this persists throughout the symptomatic pre-RA phase. Infections may be important in the mechanisms that drive progression to RA or be a manifestation of immune dysfunction (or both). These observations could inform safety and efficacy considerations for interventions in pre-RA to prevent progression. Patients with 'pre-RA' with recurrent antibiotic use may also be an identifiable 'high risk' group that could enrich the study population for intervention studies in pre-RA.

Heterogeneity after harmonisation: A retrospective cohort study of bleeding and stroke risk after the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants in four Western European countries

PURPOSE

Database heterogeneity can impact effect estimates. Harmonisation provided by common protocols and common data models (CDMs) can increase the validity of pharmacoepidemiologic research. In a case study measuring the changes in the safety and effectiveness of stroke prevention therapy after the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), we performed an international comparison.

METHODS

Using data from Stockholm, Denmark, Scotland and Norway, harmonised with a common protocol and CDM, two calendar-based cohorts were created: 2012 and 2017. Patients with a diagnosis code of atrial fibrillation 5 years preceding the 1-year cohort window were included. DOAC, vitamin K antagonist and aspirin treatment were assessed in the 6 months prior to the start of each year while strokes and bleeds were assessed during the year. A Poisson regression generated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare outcomes from 2017 to 2012 adjusted for changes in individual-level baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

In 280 359 patients in the 2012 cohort and 356 779 in the 2017 cohort, treatment with OACs increased on average from 45% to 65%, while treatment with aspirin decreased from 30% to 10%. In all countries except Scotland, there were decreases in the risk of stroke and no changes in bleeding risk, after adjustment for changes in baseline characteristics. In Scotland, major bleeding (IRR 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.00; 1.18]) and intracranial haemorrhage (IRR 1.31, 95% CI [1.13; 1.52]) increased from 2012 to 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke prevention therapy improved from 2012 to 2017 with a corresponding reduction in stroke risk without increasing the risk of bleeding in all countries, except Scotland. The heterogeneity that remains after methodological harmonisation can be informative of the underlying population and database.

Data Resource Profile: The Hospital Electronic Prescribing and Medicines Administration (HEPMA) National Data Collection in Scotland

Introduction

To support both electronic prescribing and documentation of medicines administration in secondary care, hospitals in Scotland are currently implementing the Hospital Electronic Prescribing and Medicines Administration (HEPMA) software. Driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, agreements have been put in place to centrally collate data stemming from the operational HEPMA system. The aim was to develop a national data resource based on records created in secondary care, in line with pre-existing collections of data from primary care.

Methods

HEPMA is a live clinical system and updated on a continuous basis. Data is automatically extracted from local systems at least weekly and, in most cases, on a nightly basis, and integrated into the national HEPMA dataset. Subsequently, the data are subject to quality checks including data consistency and completeness. Records contain a unique patient identified (Community Health Index number), enabling linkage to other routinely collected data including primary care prescriptions, hospital admission episodes, and death records.

Results

The HEPMA data resource captures and compiles information on all medicines prescribed within the ward/hospital covered by the system; this includes medicine name, formulation, strength, dose, route, and frequency of administration, and dates and times of prescribing. In addition, the HEPMA dataset also captures information on medicines administration, including dates and time of administration. Data is available from January 2019 onwards and held by Public Health Scotland.

Conclusion

The national HEPMA data resource supports cross-sectional/point-prevalence studies including drug utilisation studies, and also offers scope to conduct longitudinal studies, e.g., cohort and case-control studies. With the possibility to link to other relevant datasets, additional areas of interest may include health policy evaluations and health economics studies. Access to data is subject to approval; researchers need to contact the electronic Data Research and Innovation Service (eDRIS) in the first instance.

Alternative cascade-testing protocols for identifying and managing patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia: systematic reviews, qualitative study and cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Cascade testing the relatives of people with familial hypercholesterolaemia is an efficient approach to identifying familial hypercholesterolaemia. The cascade-testing protocol starts with identifying an index patient with familial hypercholesterolaemia, followed by one of three approaches to contact other relatives: indirect approach, whereby index patients contact their relatives; direct approach, whereby the specialist contacts the relatives; or a combination of both direct and indirect approaches. However, it is unclear which protocol may be most effective.

Objectives

The objectives were to determine the yield of cases from different cascade-testing protocols, treatment patterns, and short- and long-term outcomes for people with familial hypercholesterolaemia; to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative protocols for familial hypercholesterolaemia cascade testing; and to qualitatively assess the acceptability of different cascade-testing protocols to individuals and families with familial hypercholesterolaemia, and to health-care providers.

Design and methods

This study comprised systematic reviews and analysis of three data sets: PASS (PASS Software, Rijswijk, the Netherlands) hospital familial hypercholesterolaemia databases, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) linked primary-secondary care data set, and a specialist familial hypercholesterolaemia register. Cost-effectiveness modelling, incorporating preceding analyses, was undertaken. Acceptability was examined in interviews with patients, relatives and health-care professionals.

Result

Systematic review of protocols: based on data from 4 of the 24 studies, the combined approach led to a slightly higher yield of relatives tested [40%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 37% to 42%] than the direct (33%, 95% CI 28% to 39%) or indirect approaches alone (34%, 95% CI 30% to 37%). The PASS databases identified that those contacted directly were more likely to complete cascade testing (p < 0.01); the CPRD-HES data set indicated that 70% did not achieve target treatment levels, and demonstrated increased cardiovascular disease risk among these individuals, compared with controls (hazard ratio 9.14, 95% CI 8.55 to 9.76). The specialist familial hypercholesterolaemia register confirmed excessive cardiovascular morbidity (standardised morbidity ratio 7.17, 95% CI 6.79 to 7.56). Cost-effectiveness modelling found a net health gain from diagnosis of -0.27 to 2.51 quality-adjusted life-years at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £15,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The cost-effective protocols cascaded from genetically confirmed index cases by contacting first- and second-degree relatives simultaneously and directly. Interviews found a service-led direct-contact approach was more reliable, but combining direct and indirect approaches, guided by index patients and family relationships, may be more acceptable.

Limitations

Systematic reviews were not used in the economic analysis, as relevant studies were lacking or of poor quality. As only a proportion of those with primary care-coded familial hypercholesterolaemia are likely to actually have familial hypercholesterolaemia, CPRD analyses are likely to underestimate the true effect. The cost-effectiveness analysis required assumptions related to the long-term cardiovascular disease risk, the effect of treatment on cholesterol and the generalisability of estimates from the data sets. Interview recruitment was limited to white English-speaking participants.

Conclusions

Based on limited evidence, most cost-effective cascade-testing protocols, diagnosing most relatives, select index cases by genetic testing, with services directly contacting relatives, and contacting second-degree relatives even if first-degree relatives have not been tested. Combined approaches to contact relatives may be more suitable for some families.

Future work

Establish a long-term familial hypercholesterolaemia cohort, measuring cholesterol levels, treatment and cardiovascular outcomes. Conduct a randomised study comparing different approaches to contact relatives.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018117445 and CRD42019125775.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 16. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Antenatal size, early childhood growth, and asthma within a cohort created by data linkage

INTRODUCTION

The gestation when small for gestational age (SGA) is first associated with asthma is not well understood. Here, we use routinely acquired data from 10 weeks gestation to up to 28 years of age to test the hypothesis that SGA before birth is associated with an increased risk for asthma in a large population born between 1987 and 2015.

METHODS

Databases were linked to produce a single database that held antenatal fetal ultrasound measurements; maternal characteristics; birth measurements; childhood anthropometric measurements at age 5 years; hospital admission data (1987-2015); and family doctor prescribing (2009-2015). Asthma admission and receipt of any asthma medications were the outcomes. Analyses related single and then multiple anthropometric measurements to asthma outcomes.

RESULTS

Outcome data were available for 63,930 individuals. Increased length in the first-trimester size was associated with a reduced odds ratio (OR) for asthma admission of 0.991 [0.983, 0.998] per mm increase and also a shorter time to first admission, with a hazard ratio risk of 0.987 [0.980, 0.994] per mm increase. Independent of all earlier measurements, increased height at 5 years (available in a subset of 15,760) was associated with reduced OR for an asthma admission, with OR of 0.874 [0.790, 0.967] per z score. Longitudinal measurements of weight were not related to asthma outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer first-trimester length is associated with more favorable asthma outcomes, and subsequently, increased height in childhood is also independently associated with more favorable asthma outcomes. Interventions that reduce SGA and encourage healthy postnatal growth might improve asthma outcomes.

Estimating medication adherence from Electronic Health Records: comparing methods for mining and processing asthma treatment prescriptions

BACKGROUND

Medication adherence is usually defined as the extent of the agreement between the medication regimen agreed to by patients with their healthcare provider and the real-world implementation. Proactive identification of those with poor adherence may be useful to identify those with poor disease control and offers the opportunity for ameliorative action. Adherence can be estimated from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by comparing medication dispensing records to the prescribed regimen. Several methods have been developed in the literature to infer adherence from EHRs, however there is no clear consensus on what should be considered the gold standard in each use case. Our objectives were to critically evaluate different measures of medication adherence in a large longitudinal Scottish EHR dataset. We used asthma, a chronic condition with high prevalence and high rates of non-adherence, as a case study.

METHODS

Over 1.6 million asthma controllers were prescribed for our cohort of 91,334 individuals, between January 2009 and March 2017. Eight adherence measures were calculated, and different approaches to estimating the amount of medication supply available at any time were compared.

RESULTS

Estimates from different measures of adherence varied substantially. Three of the main drivers of the differences between adherence measures were the expected duration (if taken as in accordance with the dose directions), whether there was overlapping supply between prescriptions, and whether treatment had been discontinued. However, there are also wider, study-related, factors which are crucial to consider when comparing the adherence measures.

CONCLUSIONS

We evaluated the limitations of various medication adherence measures, and highlight key considerations about the underlying data, condition, and population to guide researchers choose appropriate adherence measures. This guidance will enable researchers to make more informed decisions about the methodology they employ, ensuring that adherence is captured in the most meaningful way for their particular application needs.

The Effect of Minimum Unit Pricing for Alcohol on Prescriptions for Treatment of Alcohol Dependence: A Controlled Interrupted Time Series Analysis

In 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol to reduce alcohol-related harms. We aimed to study the association between MUP introduction and the volume of prescriptions to treat alcohol dependence, and volume of new patients receiving such prescriptions. We also examined whether effects varied across different socio-economic groups. A controlled interrupted time series was used to examine variations of our two outcomes. The same prescriptions in England and prescriptions for methadone in Scotland were used as controls. There was no evidence of an association between MUP implementation and the volume of prescriptions for alcohol dependence (immediate change: 2.74%, 95% CI: -0.068 0.014; slope change: 0% 95%CI: -0.001 0.000). A small, significant increase in slope in number of new patients receiving prescriptions was observed (0.2% 95%CI: 0.001 0.003). However, no significant results were confirmed after robustness checks. We found also no variation across different socioeconomic groups.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11469-023-01070-6.

Sex Differences in Oral Anticoagulation Therapy in Patients Hospitalized With Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background Important disparities in the treatment and outcomes of women and men with atrial fibrillation (AF) are well recognized. Whether introduction of direct oral anticoagulants has reduced disparities in treatment is uncertain. Methods and Results All patients who had an incident hospitalization from 2010 to 2019 with nonvalvular AF in Scotland were included in the present cohort study. Community drug dispensing data were used to determine prescribed oral anticoagulation therapy and comorbidity status. Logistic regression modeling was used to evaluate patient factors associated with treatment with vitamin K antagonists and direct oral anticoagulants. A total of 172 989 patients (48% women [82 833 of 172 989]) had an incident hospitalization with nonvalvular AF in Scotland between 2010 and 2019. By 2019, factor Xa inhibitors accounted for 83.6% of all oral anticoagulants prescribed, while treatment with vitamin K antagonists and direct thrombin inhibitors declined to 15.9% and 0.6%, respectively. Women were less likely to be prescribed any oral anticoagulation therapy compared with men (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.68 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]). This disparity was mainly attributed to vitamin K antagonists (aOR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.66-0.70]), while there was less disparity in the use of factor Xa inhibitors between women and men (aOR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.90-0.95]). Conclusions Women with nonvalvular AF were significantly less likely to be prescribed vitamin K antagonists compared with men. Most patients admitted to the hospital in Scotland with incident nonvalvular AF are now treated with factor Xa inhibitors and this is associated with fewer treatment disparities between women and men.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Assessing the impact of a national clinical guideline for the management of chronic pain on opioid prescribing rates: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Opioids can be effective analgesics, but long-term use may be associated with harms. In 2013, the first national, comprehensive, evidence-based pain management guideline was published, from the Scottish Intercollegiate Guideline Network (SIGN 136: Management of Chronic Pain) with key recommendations on analgesic prescribing. This study aimed to examine the potential impact on national opioid prescribing rates in Scotland.

METHODS

Trends in national and regional community opioid prescribing data for Scotland were analysed from quarter one (Q1) 2005 to Q2 2020. Interrupted time series regression examined the association of SIGN 136 publication with prescribing rates for opioid-containing drugs. Gabapentinoid prescribing was used as a comparison drug.

RESULTS

After a positive prescribing trend pre-publication, the timing of SIGN 136 publication was associated with a negative change in the trend of opioid prescribing rates (-2.82 items per 1000 population per quarter [PTPPQ]; P < 0.01). By Q2 2020, the relative reduction in the opioid prescribing rate was -20.67% (95% CI: -23.61, -17.76). This persisted after correcting for gabapentinoid prescribing and was mainly driven by the reduction in weak opioids, whereas strong opioid prescribing rates continued to rise. Gabapentinoid prescribing showed a significant rise in level (8.00 items per 1000 population; P = 0.01) and trend (0.27 items PTPPQ; P = 0.01) following SIGN 136 publication.

CONCLUSIONS

The publication of SIGN 136 was associated with a reduction in opioid prescribing rates. This suggests that changes in clinical policy through evidence-based national clinical guidelines may affect community opioid prescribing, though this may be partially replaced by gabapentinoids, and other factors may also contribute.

E. coli bacteraemia and antimicrobial resistance following antimicrobial prescribing for urinary tract infection in the community

Background

Urinary tract infections are one of the most common infections in primary and secondary care, with the majority of antimicrobial therapy initiated empirically before culture results are available. In some cases, however, over 40% of the bacteria that cause UTIs are resistant to some of the antimicrobials used, yet we do not know how the patient outcome is affected in terms of relapse, treatment failure, progression to more serious illness (bacteraemia) requiring hospitalization, and ultimately death. This study analyzed the current patterns of antimicrobial use for UTI in the community in Scotland, and factors for poor outcomes.

Objectives

To explore antimicrobial use for UTI in the community in Scotland, and the relationship with patient characteristics and antimicrobial resistance in E. coli bloodstream infections and subsequent mortality.

Methods

We included all adult patients in Scotland with a positive blood culture with E. coli growth, receiving at least one UTI-related antimicrobial (amoxicillin, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, ciprofloxacin, trimethoprim, and nitrofurantoin) between 1st January 2009 and 31st December 2012. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to understand the impact of age, gender, socioeconomic status, previous community antimicrobial exposure (including long-term use), prior treatment failure, and multi-morbidity, on the occurrence of E. coli bacteraemia, trimethoprim and nitrofurantoin resistance, and mortality.

Results

There were 1,093,227 patients aged 16 to 100 years old identified as receiving at least one prescription for the 5 UTI-related antimicrobials during the study period. Antimicrobial use was particularly prevalent in the female elderly population, and 10% study population was on long-term antimicrobials. The greatest predictor for trimethoprim resistance in E. coli bacteraemia was increasing age (OR 7.18, 95% CI 5.70 to 9.04 for the 65 years old and over group), followed by multi-morbidity (OR 5.42, 95% CI 4.82 to 6.09 for Charlson Index 3+). Prior antimicrobial use, along with prior treatment failure, male gender, and higher deprivation were also associated with a greater likelihood of a resistant E. coli bacteraemia. Mortality was significantly associated with both having an E. coli bloodstream infection, and those with resistant growth.

Conclusion

Increasing age, increasing co-morbidity, lower socioeconomic status, and prior community antibiotic exposure were significantly associated with a resistant E. coli bacteraemia, which leads to increased mortality.

Determinants of the Empiric Use of Antibiotics by General Practitioners in South Africa: Observational, Analytic, Cross-Sectional Study

The overuse of antibiotics is the main driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, there has been limited surveillance data on AMR and antibiotic prescribing at a primary healthcare level in South Africa. An observational, analytic, cross-sectional study was undertaken to assess key factors associated with empiric antibiotic prescribing among private sector general practitioners (GPs) in the eThekwini district in South Africa, particularly for patients with acute respiratory infections (ARIs). A semi-structured web-based questionnaire was used between November 2020−March 2021. One hundred and sixteen (55.5%) responding GPs prescribed antibiotics empirically for patients with ARIs more than 70% of the time, primarily for symptom relief and the prevention of complications. GPs between the ages of 35−44 years (OR: 3.38; 95%CI: 1.15−9.88), >55 years (OR: 4.75; 95% CI 1.08−21) and in practice < 15 years (OR: 2.20; 95%CI: 1.08−4.51) were significantly more likely to prescribe antibiotics empirically. Three factors—workload/time pressures; diagnostic uncertainty, and the use of a formulary, were significantly associated with empiric prescribing. GPs with more experience and working alone were slightly less likely to prescribe antibiotics empirically. These findings indicate that a combination of environmental factors are important underlying contributors to the development of AMR. As a result, guide appropriate interventions using a health system approach, which includes pertinent prescribing indicators and targets.

Socioeconomic position, bronchiolitis and asthma in children: counterfactual disparity measures from a national birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

The debated link between severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in early life and asthma has yet to be investigated within a social inequity lens. We estimated the magnitude of socioeconomic disparity in childhood asthma which would remain if no child were admitted to hospital for bronchiolitis, commonly due to RSV, during infancy.

METHODS

The cohort, constructed from national administrative health datasets, comprised 83853 children born in Scotland between 1 January 2007 and 31 June 2008. Scottish Index for Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) was used to capture socioeconomic position. Emergency admissions for bronchiolitis before age 1 year were identified from hospital records. Yearly indicators of asthma/wheeze from ages 2 to 9 years were created using dispensing data and hospital admission records.

RESULTS

Using latent class growth analysis, we identified four trajectories of asthma/wheeze: early-transient (2.2% of the cohort), early-persistent (2.0%), intermediate-onset (1.8%) and no asthma/wheeze (94.0%). The estimated marginal risks of chronic asthma (combining early-persistent and intermediate-onset groups) varied by SIMD, with risk differences for the medium and high deprivation groups, relative to the low deprivation group, of 7.0% (95% confidence interval: 3.7-10.3) and 13.0% (9.6-16.4), respectively. Using counterfactual disparity measures, we estimated that the elimination of bronchiolitis requiring hospital admission could reduce these risk differences by 21.2% (4.9-37.5) and 17.9% (10.4-25.4), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of disparity in chronic asthma prevalence by deprivation level remains unexplained. Our paper offers a guide to using causal inference methods to study other plausible pathways to inequities in asthma using complex, linked administrative data.

How do multiple long-term conditions impact on the cost-of-illness in early rheumatoid arthritis?

OBJECTIVE

Multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) are prevalent in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and associated with worse outcomes and greater economic burden. However, little is known about the impact of MLTCs on the cost-of-illness (COI) in early RA, including direct and indirect costs. The objective of this study was to quantify this impact on COI.

METHODS

The Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis study is a national cohort of adults with new-onset RA. Direct costs were estimated applying relevant unit costs to health resource utilisation; indirect costs were measured by productivity loss due to health conditions. Two-part models were used, adjusting for age, gender, baseline functional disability and health-related quality of life. The Charlson Comorbidity Index score was calculated using ICD-10 diagnoses. Individuals were defined as 'RA alone', 'RA plus LTC' and 'RA plus MLTCs' according to the number of coexisting LTCs.

RESULTS

Data were available for 818 participants. Average annualised direct costs incurred by people with early RA plus MLTCs (£4444; 95% CI £3100 to £6371) were twice as, and almost five times higher than, those with a single LTC (£2184; 95% CI £1596 to £2997) and those without LTC (£919; 95% CI £694 to £1218), respectively. Indirect costs incurred by RA plus MLTCs (£842; 95% CI £377to £1521) were 3.1 times higher than RA alone (£530; 95% CI £273to £854). The relative proportion of direct costs increased with LTC category, ranging from 77.2% to 84.1%. In addition to increased costs with LTCs, costs also increased with age and were higher for men regardless of LTC category.

CONCLUSIONS

MLTCs impact on COI early in the course of RA. The presence of LTCs is associated with significant increases in both direct and indirect costs among people with early RA.

Cancer-specific mortality in breast cancer patients with hypothyroidism: a UK population-based study

PURPOSE

Epidemiological studies have indicated a higher prevalence of hypothyroidism in breast cancer patients, possibly related to shared risk factors and breast cancer treatments. However, few studies have evaluated how hypothyroidism impacts survival outcomes in breast cancer patients. We aimed to determine the association between hypothyroidism and breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based study using the Scottish Cancer Registry to identify women diagnosed with breast cancer between 2010 and 2017. A matched comparison cohort of breast cancer-free women was also identified. Using hospital diagnoses and dispensed prescriptions for levothyroxine, we identified hypothyroidism diagnosed before and after breast cancer diagnosis and determined associations with breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 33,500 breast cancer patients were identified, of which 3,802 had hypothyroidism before breast cancer diagnosis and 565 patients went on to develop hypothyroidism after. Breast cancer patients had higher rates of hypothyroidism compared with cancer-free controls (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.30). Among breast cancer patients, we found no association between hypothyroidism (diagnosed before or after) and cancer-specific mortality (before: HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.88-1.12, after: HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.63-1.49). Similar associations were seen for all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

In a large contemporary breast cancer cohort, there was little evidence that hypothyroidism, either at diagnosis or diagnosed after breast cancer, was associated with cancer-specific or all-cause mortality.

Care processes and outcomes of deprivation across the clinical course of kidney disease: findings from a high-income country with universal healthcare

BACKGROUND

No single study contrasts the extent and consequences of inequity of kidney care across the clinical course of kidney disease.

METHODS

This population study of Grampian (UK) followed incident presentations of AKI, and incident eGFR thresholds of < 60, <45 and < 30 in separate cohorts (2011-2021). The key exposure was area-level deprivation (lowest quintile of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation). Outcomes were care processes (monitoring, prescribing, appointments, unscheduled care); long-term mortality; and kidney failure. Modelling involved multivariable logistic regression, negative binomial regression, and cause specific Cox models with/without adjustment of comorbidities.

RESULTS

There were 41 313, 51 190, 32 171, and 17 781 new presentations of AKI, and eGFR thresholds < 60, <45 and < 30. 6.1-7.8% were from deprived areas, and (vs all others) presented on average five years younger, with more diabetes, pulmonary and liver disease. Those from deprived areas were more likely to present initially in hospital, less likely to receive community monitoring, less likely to attend appointments, and more likely to have an unplanned emergency department or hospital admission episode. Deprivation had greatest association with long-term kidney failure at the eGFR < 60 threshold (adjusted HR 1.48, 1.17-1.87), and this association attenuated with advancing disease severity (HR 1.09, 0.93-1.28 at eGFR < 30); with a similar pattern for mortality. Across all analyses the most detrimental associations of deprivation were at an eGFR < 60 threshold, AKI, males, and those aged < 65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Even in a high-income country with universal healthcare, serious and consistent inequities of kidney care exist. The poorer care and outcomes with area-level deprivation were greater earlier in the disease course.

Associations between declining antibiotic use in primary care in Scotland and hospitalization with infection and patient satisfaction: longitudinal population study

Background

Reducing antibiotic use is central to antimicrobial stewardship, but may have unintended consequences.

Objectives

To examine associations between size of decline in antibiotic prescriptions in general practices and (i) rate of hospitalization for infection and (ii) patient satisfaction.

Methods

Routine data analysis for all general practices in Scotland, quarter one 2012 (Q1 2012) to quarter one 2018 (Q1 2018). Practices were grouped into quartiles of rate of change in prescribing and changes in rates of hospitalization were compared across groups. For satisfaction analysis, associations between practice-level patient satisfaction in 2017–18 (Scottish Health and Care Experience Survey) and prior change in antibiotic prescription were examined.

Results

Antibiotic prescriptions overall fell from 194.1 prescriptions/1000 patients in Q1 2012 to 165.3 in Q1 2018 (14.9% reduction). The first quartile of practices had a non-significant increase in prescriptions [change per quarter = 0.22 (95% CI −0.42 to 0.86) prescriptions/1000 patients], compared with large reductions in the other three groups, largest in quartile four: −2.95 (95% CI −3.66 to −2.24) prescriptions/1000 patients/quarter (29.7% reduction overall). In all quartiles, hospitalizations with infection increased. The increase was smallest in quartile four (the biggest reduction in prescriptions) and highest in quartile one (no significant change in prescriptions): 2.18 (95% CI 1.18 to 3.19) versus 3.68 (95% CI 2.64 to 4.73) admissions/100 000 patients/quarter, respectively [difference = − 1.50 (95% CI −2.91 to −0.10)]. There was no statistically significant association between change in antibiotic prescriptions and patient satisfaction.

Conclusions

Very large reductions in antibiotic prescriptions in Scottish general practices have not been associated with increases in hospitalization with infection or changes in patient satisfaction.

Impact of regulatory safety notices on valproate prescribing and pregnancy outcome among women of child-bearing potential in Scotland: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) safety alerts on valproate prescribing among women aged 14-45 years in Scotland and examine trends in pregnancies exposed to valproate.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

21 983 women of all ages who received valproate between January 2011 and December 2019.

METHODS

All valproate prescriptions issued to women in Scotland between January 2011 and December 2019 were identified and prevalence/incidence rates per 10 000 population derived. The impact of regulatory safety alerts on prescribing was analysed using Joinpoint models. Linked pregnancy records for January 2011 to September 2019 were identified and annual rates of pregnancy per 1000 valproate-treated women aged 14-45 years were calculated for each pregnancy outcome: live birth, stillbirth, miscarriage and termination.

RESULTS

Annual prevalent and incident rates of valproate prescribing declined in women aged 14-45 years between 2011 and 2019 from 40.5 to 18.3 per 10 000 population (54.8% reduction) and 7.9 to 1.3 per 10 000 population (83.5% reduction), respectively. Statistically significant changes occurred around the times of the MHRA safety alerts. The number of valproate-exposed pregnancies conceived each year fell from 70 in 2011 to 20 in 2018, a 71.4% reduction, and the number of live births fell from 52 to 14, a 73.0% reduction. Expressed as a rate this was a 46.4% decrease from 15.3 to 8.2 per 1000 valproate-treated women aged 14-45 years in 2011 and 2018, respectively. Live birth was the most common pregnancy outcome.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates, for the first time, the capabilities of national data sets to identify drug exposure and derive pregnancy outcome at scale across Scotland. Building on this as part of an evolving national/UK surveillance capability will continue efforts to minimise in-utero exposure to valproate; enabling ongoing surveillance to understand better long-term outcomes, and to inform better provision of health and wider support services.

A National Network of Safe Havens: Scottish Perspective

For over a decade, Scotland has implemented and operationalized a system of Safe Havens, which provides secure analytics platforms for researchers to access linked, deidentified electronic health records (EHRs) while managing the risk of unauthorized reidentification. In this paper, a perspective is provided on the state-of-the-art Scottish Safe Haven network, including its evolution, to define the key activities required to scale the Scottish Safe Haven network's capability to facilitate research and health care improvement initiatives. A set of processes related to EHR data and their delivery in Scotland have been discussed. An interview with each Safe Haven was conducted to understand their services in detail, as well as their commonalities. The results show how Safe Havens in Scotland have protected privacy while facilitating the reuse of the EHR data. This study provides a common definition of a Safe Haven and promotes a consistent understanding among the Scottish Safe Haven network and the clinical and academic research community. We conclude by identifying areas where efficiencies across the network can be made to meet the needs of population-level studies at scale.

Examining the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 and associated control measures on interventions to prevent blood-borne viruses among people who inject drugs in Scotland: an interrupted time series study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has likely affected the delivery of interventions to prevent blood-borne viruses (BBVs) among people who inject drugs (PWID). We examined the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 in Scotland on: 1) needle and syringe provision (NSP), 2) opioid agonist therapy (OAT) and 3) BBV testing.

METHODS

An interrupted time series study design; 23rd March 2020 (date of the first 'lockdown') was chosen as the key date.

RESULTS

The number of HIV tests and HCV tests in drug services/prisons, and the number of needles/syringes (N/S) distributed decreased by 94% (RR=0.062, 95% CI 0.041-0.094, p < 0.001), 95% (RR=0.049, 95% CI 0.034-0.069, p < 0.001) and 18% (RR = 0.816, 95% CI 0.750-0.887, p < 0.001), respectively, immediately after lockdown. Post-lockdown, an increasing trend was observed relating to the number of N/S distributed (0.6%; RR = 1.006, 95% CI 1.001-1.012, p = 0.015), HIV tests (12.1%; RR = 1.121, 95% CI 1.092-1.152, p < 0.001) and HCV tests (13.2%; RR = 1.132, 95 CI 1.106-1.158, p < 0.001). Trends relating to the total amount of methadone prescribed remained stable, but a decreasing trend in the number of prescriptions (2.4%; RR = 0.976, 95% CI 0.959-0.993, p = 0.006) and an increasing trend in the quantity prescribed per prescription (2.8%; RR = 1.028, 95% CI 1.013-1.042, p < 0.001) was observed post-lockdown.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 impacted the delivery of BBV prevention services for PWID in Scotland. While there is evidence of service recovery; further effort is likely required to return some intervention coverage to pre-pandemic levels in the context of subsequent waves of COVID-19.

Unlocking the potential of NHS primary care dental datasets

Introduction Maximising the use of routinely collected health data for research is a key part of the UK Government's Industrial Strategy. Rich data are generated by NHS primary care dental services, but the extent of their use in research is unknown.Aims To profile the utility of the post-2006 NHS dental datasets for research, map how they have been used to date and develop recommendations to maximise their utility.Methods The content of and access to the four UK NHS dental datasets was collated using publicly available information and a free-text questionnaire, completed by the relevant data controllers. A scoping review was carried out to identify and map literature that has utilised NHS dental activity data.Results The contents of the UK NHS dental activity datasets are described, alongside how they may be accessed for research. Strengths and weaknesses of these datasets for research are highlighted. The scoping review identified 33 studies which had utilised NHS dental activity data since 2006. We classified 15 as public health practice, 11 as service evaluation and 7 as research.Conclusion In comparision to other NHS activity datasets, it appears that the UK dental datasets have been underutilised for research. We make 11 recommendations on how their utility for research may be increased.

Propensity score methods for comparative-effectiveness analysis: A case study of direct oral anticoagulants in the atrial fibrillation population

Objective

To explore methodological challenges when using real-world evidence (RWE) to estimate comparative-effectiveness in the context of Health Technology Assessment of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in Scotland.

Methods

We used linkage data from the Prescribing Information System (PIS), Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR) and mortality records for newly anticoagulated patients to explore methodological challenges in the use of Propensity score (PS) matching, Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and covariate adjustment with PS. Model performance was assessed by standardised difference. Clinical outcomes (stroke and major bleeding) and mortality were compared for all DOACs (including apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban) versus warfarin. Patients were followed for 2 years from first oral anticoagulant prescription to first clinical event or death. Censoring was applied for treatment switching or discontinuation.

Results

Overall, a good balance of patients’ covariates was obtained with every PS model tested. IPW was found to be the best performing method in assessing covariate balance when applied to subgroups with relatively large sample sizes (combined-DOACs versus warfarin).

With the IPTW-IPCW approach, the treatment effect tends to be larger, but still in line with the treatment effect estimated using other PS methods. Covariate adjustment with PS in the outcome model performed well when applied to subgroups with smaller sample sizes (dabigatran versus warfarin), as this method does not require further reduction of sample size, and trimming or truncation of extreme weights.

Conclusion

The choice of adequate PS methods may vary according to the characteristics of the data. If assumptions of unobserved confounding hold, multiple approaches should be identified and tested. PS based methods can be implemented using routinely collected linked data, thus supporting Health Technology decision-making.

OUP accepted manuscript

Aims

There is currently no consensus on whether atrial fibrillation (AF) patients at low risk for stroke (one non-sex-related CHA₂DS₂-VASc point) should be treated with an oral anticoagulant.

Methods and results

We conducted a multi-country cohort study in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Scotland. In total, 59 076 patients diagnosed with AF at low stroke risk were included. We assessed the rates of stroke or major bleeding during treatment with a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), a vitamin K antagonist (VKA), or no treatment, using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) Cox regression. In untreated patients, the rate for ischaemic stroke was 0.70 per 100 person-years and the rate for a bleed was also 0.70 per 100 person-years. Comparing NOAC with no treatment, the stroke rate was lower [hazard ratio (HR) 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.94], and the rate for intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) was not increased (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.54–1.30). Comparing VKA with no treatment, the rate for stroke tended to be lower (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.59–1.09), and the rate for ICH tended to be higher during VKA treatment (HR 1.37; 95% CI 0.88–2.14). Comparing NOAC with VKA treatment, the rate for stroke was similar (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.70–1.22), but the rate for ICH was lower during NOAC treatment (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42–0.94).

Conclusion

These observational data suggest that NOAC treatment may be associated with a positive net clinical benefit compared with no treatment or VKA treatment in patients at low stroke risk, a question that can be tested through a randomized controlled trial.

Hormone therapy use and the risk of acute kidney injury in patients with prostate cancer: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hormone therapy is widely used in prostate cancer. However, studies have raised concerns that hormone therapy, particularly the use of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists, could increase the risk of acute kidney injury.

METHODS

Men newly diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer, from 2012 to 2017, were identified from the Scottish Cancer Registry. A matched comparison cohort of prostate cancer-free men was also identified. Hormone therapy use was determined from the Prescribing Information System in Scotland. The primary outcome was hospitalisations with acute kidney injury taken from Scottish hospital records (SMR01) up to June 2019. Time-dependent Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for acute kidney injury by hormone therapy use.

RESULTS

The prostate cancer cohort contained 10,751 patients followed for 41,997 person years, during which there were 618 hospitalisations with acute kidney injury. Prostate cancer patients had higher rates of acute kidney injury compared with cancer-free controls (adjusted HR = 1.47 95% CI 1.29, 1.69). However, prostate cancer patients currently using hormone therapy (adjusted HR = 1.14 95% CI 0.92, 1.41), including gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists (adjusted HR = 1.13 95% CI 0.90, 1.40), did not appear to have a marked increase in acute kidney injury compared with prostate cancer patients not using hormone therapy after adjusting for potential confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, there was little evidence that gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists were associated with marked increases in acute kidney injury.

Hospital discharge location and socioeconomic deprivation as risk factors for alcohol dependence relapses: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is evidence that social support can improve the ability of an individual with alcohol use disorder to manage relapses. However, the role of families and friends in this context is debated as family history and co-drinking are also risk factors for initiating alcohol drinking or maintaining addictive behaviours.

AIM

To quantitatively evaluate whether the hospital discharge location (in company or alone) after an alcohol dependence hospitalisation can influence the risk of relapses and whether this impact is modified by socioeconomic deprivation.

METHODS

A cohort of 1141 patients hospitalised for the first time for alcohol dependence in Scotland between 2010 and 2019 was derived from a routine healthcare database. Relapses were defined as recurrent alcohol-related hospitalisation. Survival analysis was undertaken to compare the risk of relapse for different discharge locations and socioeconomic deprivation groups.

RESULTS

On average, living in company of others was associated with a significant lower risk of relapses compared to living alone (HR: 0.84 95%CI: 0.71-0.99). This association differed across socioeconomic groups, being greater for those living in areas with the highest level of socioeconomic deprivation (HR: 0.76 95%CI: 0.57-1.01) and lower elsewhere. While this effect was not statistically significant (p = 0.056), its extent varied based on how we defined our cohort: it was not detectable when we expanded the cohort to all individuals with alcohol use disorders.

CONCLUSION

Home settings and the environment where individuals reside should be considered as significant psychosocial factors when clinicians design therapies and hospital discharge planning for patients with alcohol dependence.

Cohort profile: The 'Children's Health in Care in Scotland' (CHiCS) study-a longitudinal dataset to compare health outcomes for care experienced children and general population children

PURPOSE

The Children's Health in Care in Scotland Cohorts were set up to provide first population-wide evidence on the health outcomes of care experienced children (CEC) compared with children in the general population (CGP). To date, there are no data on how objective health outcomes, mortality and pregnancies for CEC are different from CGP in Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

The CEC cohort includes school-aged children who were on the 2009/2010 Scottish Government's Children Looked After Statistics (CLAS) return and on the 2009 Pupil Census (PC). The children in the general population cohort includes those who were on the 2009 PC and not on any of the CLAS returns between 1 April 2007 and 31 July 2016.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Data on a variety of health outcomes, including mortality, prescriptions, hospitalisations, pregnancies, and Accident & Emergency attendances, were obtained for the period 1 August 2009 to 31 July 2016 for both cohorts. Data on socioeconomic status (SES) for both cohorts were available from the Birth Registrations and a small area deprivation measure was available from the PC. CEC have, on average, lower SES at birth and live in areas of higher deprivation compared with CGP. A higher proportion of CEC have recorded events across all health data sets, and they experienced higher average rates of mortality, prescriptions and hospitalisations during the study period. The reasons for contacting health services vary between cohorts.

FUTURE PLANS

Age-standardised rates for the two cohorts by sex and area deprivation will be calculated to provide evidence on population-wide prevalence of main causes of death, reasons for hospitalisation and types of prescription. Event history analysis will be used on matched cohorts to investigate the impact of placement histories and socioeconomic factors on health.

Risk of anticholinergic burden in adults with intellectual disabilities: a Scottish retrospective cohort study of n = 17 220

BACKGROUND

Several drugs have anticholinergic side effects that are associated with adverse health outcomes. Anticholinergic burden studies in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) have focused exclusively on older adults. This study investigates anticholinergic burden and its associations in adults with ID of all ages (17-94 years).

METHODS

Adults with ID (n = 4 305), each with three general population age-sex-neighbourhood-matched controls (n = 12 915), were linked to their prescribed medications with anticholinergic effects between 2009 and 2017. Analyses were undertaken using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Adults with ID were more likely to be prescribed any anticholinergic medicines, odds ratio (OR) = 1.49 (1.38-1.59), especially 'very strong' risk medicines, OR = 2.59 (2.39-2.81); 48.5% had very high total anticholinergic burden (3+) compared with 35.4% of the general population, OR = 1.77 (1.64-1.90). This group difference was greater for males, OR = 2.02 (1.84-2.22), than females, OR = 1.48 (1.33-1.65). Adults with ID had significantly higher odds of having very high total anticholinergic burden up to 75 years old, with the greatest group effect occurring in younger ages, 17-24-year-olds, OR = 3.05 (2.39-3.89), and the extent of the difference decreased as age increased. The main effect of neighbourhood deprivation showed greater group differences with increasing affluence of neighbourhood. Results examining only the ID group showed that very high total anticholinergic burden was greatest for females, OR = 1.21 (1.07-1.37), and those over age 55, and extent of neighbourhood deprivation was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with ID are at higher risk of anticholinergic burden than the general population, especially young adults. Overall anticholinergic burden increased with age, but burden was high across all ages in the ID group. Very high total anticholinergic burden is prevalent across all types of neighbourhoods for the adults with ID, in contrast to the steeper gradient seen in the general population. Adults with ID have increased likelihood of unintended adverse effects, regardless of potential confounds, so clinicians undertaking medication reviews need to consider anticholinergic side effects and cumulative burden across concomitant medications, including in young adults with ID, not just older adults, and particularly women.

A data linkage study of the effects of the Great Recession and austerity on antidepressant prescription usage

BACKGROUND

International literature shows unemployment and income loss during the Great Recession worsened population mental health. This individual-level longitudinal study examines how regional economic trends and austerity related to depression using administrative prescription data for a large and representative population sample.

METHODS

Records from a sample of the Scottish Longitudinal Study (N=86 500) were linked to monthly primary care antidepressant prescriptions (2009-15). Regional economic trends were characterized by annual full-time employment data (2004-14). Economic impact of austerity was measured via annual income lost per working age adult due to welfare reforms (2010-15). Sequence analysis identified new cases of antidepressant use, and group-based trajectory modelling classified regions into similar economic trajectories. Multi-level logistic regression examined relationships between regional economic trends and new antidepressant prescriptions. Structural equation mediation analysis assessed the contributory role of welfare reforms.

RESULTS

Employed individuals living in regions not recovering post-recession had the highest risk of beginning a new course of antidepressants (AOR 1.23; 95% CI 1.08-1.38). Individuals living in areas with better recovery trajectories had the lowest risk. Mediation analyses showed that 50% (95% CI 7-61%) of this association was explained by the impact of welfare benefit reforms on average incomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the Great Recession, local labour market decline and austerity measures were associated with growing antidepressant usage, increasing regional inequalities in mental health. The study evidences the impact of austerity on health inequalities and suggests that economic conditions and welfare policies impact on population health. Reducing the burden of mental ill-health primarily requires action on the social determinants.

Towards transforming community eye care: an observational study and time-series analysis of optometrists' prescribing for eye disorders

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to provide evidence on the therapeutic prescribing activity by community optometrists in Scotland and to determine its impact on workload in general practice and ophthalmology clinics.

STUDY DESIGN

Scottish administrative healthcare data for a 53-month period (November 2013-April 2018) were used to analyse non-medical prescribing practice by optometrists.

METHODS

Using interrupted time-series regression (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), we assessed the impact of optometrist prescribing on ophthalmology outpatient attendances and general practice prescribing for eye disorders.

RESULTS

A total of 54,246 items were prescribed by 205 optometrists over the study period. Since the commencement of data recording, optometrist prescribing activity increased steadily from a baseline of zero to 1.2% of all ophthalmic items prescribed. Neither the monthly number of items prescribed nor the size of optometric workforce were associated with a reduction in ophthalmology outpatient appointments over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Optometrists increasingly contribute to community ophthalmic prescribing in Scotland, releasing capacity and lessening general practice, but not secondary care workload. There appears to be an underutilisation of optometrists related to the management of dry eye, which represents an opportunity to release further capacity.

Quantifying prescribed high dose opioids in the community and risk of overdose

Background

Opioid prescribing for a range of health issues is increasing globally. The risk of fatal and non-fatal overdose is increased among people prescribed strong opioids: in high doses in the context of polypharmacy (the use of multiple medications at the same time), especially with other sedatives; and among people with multiple morbidities including cardiorespiratory, hepatic and renal conditions. This study described and quantified the prescribing of strong opioids, comorbidities and other overdose risk factors among those prescribed strong opioids, and factors associated with high/very high opioid dosage in a regional health authority in Scotland as part of a wider service improvement exercise.

Methods

Participating practices ran searches to identify patients prescribed strong opioids and their characteristics, polypharmacy, and other overdose risk factors. Data were anonymised before being analysed at practice and patient-level. Morphine Equivalent Doses were calculated for patients based on drug/dose information and classed as Low/Medium/High/Very High. Descriptive statistics were generated on the strong opioid patient population and overdose risk factors. The relationship between the prescribing of strong opioids and practice/patient-level factors was investigated using linear and logistic regression models.

Results

Eighty-five percent (46/54) of GP practices participated. 12.4% (42,382/341,240) of individuals in participating practices were prescribed opioids and, of these, one third (14,079/42,382) were prescribed strong opioids. The most common comorbidities and overdose risk factors among strong opioid recipients were pain (67.2%), cardiovascular disease (43.2%), and mental health problems (39.3%). There was a positive significant relationship between level of social deprivation among practice caseload and level of strong opioid prescribing (p < 0.001). People prescribed strong opioids tended to be older (mean 59.7 years) and female (8638, 61.4%) and, among a subset of patients, age, gender and opioid drug class were significantly associated with prescribing of High/Very High doses.

Conclusions

Our findings have identified a large population at potential risk of prescription opioid overdose. There is a need to explore pragmatic models of tailored interventions which may reduce the risk of overdose within this group and clinical practice may need to be tightened to minimise overdose risk for individuals prescribed high dose opioids.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11162-4.

Air Pollution, housing and respirfatory tract Infections in Children: NatIonal birth Cohort study (PICNIC): study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason for hospital admission among children <5 years in the UK. The relative contribution of ambient air pollution exposure and adverse housing conditions to RTI admissions in young children is unclear and has not been assessed in a UK context.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The aim of the PICNIC study (Air Pollution, housing and respiratory tract Infections in Children: NatIonal birth Cohort Study) is to quantify the extent to which in-utero, infant and childhood exposures to ambient air pollution and adverse housing conditions are associated with risk of RTI admissions in children <5 years old. We will use national administrative data birth cohorts, including data from all children born in England in 2005-2014 and in Scotland in 1997-2020, created via linkage between civil registration, maternity and hospital admission data sets. We will further enhance these cohorts via linkage to census data on housing conditions and socioeconomic position and small area-level data on ambient air pollution and building characteristics. We will use time-to-event analyses to examine the association between air pollution, housing characteristics and the risk of RTI admissions in children, calculate population attributable fractions for ambient air pollution and housing characteristics, and use causal mediation analyses to explore the mechanisms through which housing and air pollution influence the risk of infant RTI admission.

ETHICS, EXPECTED IMPACT AND DISSEMINATION

To date, we have obtained approval from six ethics and information governance committees in England and two in Scotland. Our results will inform parents, national and local governments, the National Health Service and voluntary sector organisations of the relative contribution of adverse housing conditions and air pollution to RTI admissions in young children. We will publish our results in open-access journals and present our results to the public via parent groups and social media and on the PICNIC website. Code and metadata will be published on GitHub.

Risk of cardiovascular disease following gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists vs antagonists in prostate cancer: Real-world evidence from five databases

Observational studies in prostate cancer (PCa) have shown an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) following gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists, whereas randomised-controlled trials have shown no associations. Compared to GnRH agonists, GnRH antagonists have shown less atherosclerotic effects in preclinical models. We used real-world data from five countries to investigate CVD risk following GnRH agonists and antagonists in PCa men. Data sources included cancer registries, primary and secondary healthcare databases. CVD event was defined as an incident or fatal CVD. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), which were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Stratified analyses were conducted by history of CVD and age (75 years). A total of 48 757 men were on GnRH agonists and 2144 on GnRH antagonists. There was no difference in risk of any CVD for men on GnRH antagonists and agonists (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 0.96-1.61; I2 : 64%). Men on GnRH antagonists showed increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (HR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.11-2.35; I2 : 0%) and arrhythmia (HR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.11-2.15, I2 : 17%) compared to GnRH agonists. Having a history of CVD was found to be an effect modifier for the associations with some CVD subtypes. Overall, we did not observe a difference in risk of overall CVD when comparing GnRH antagonists with agonists-though for some subtypes of CVD we noted an increased risk with antagonists. Further studies are required to address potential confounding caused by unadjusted variables such as severity of CVD history and PCa stage.

Hormone replacement therapy in women with cancer and risk of cancer-specific mortality and cardiovascular disease: a protocol for a cohort study from Scotland and Wales

BACKGROUND

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is widely used and has proven benefits for women with menopausal symptoms. An increasing number of women with cancer experience menopausal symptoms but the safety of HRT use in women with cancer is unclear. There are particular concerns that HRT could accelerate cancer progression in women with cancer, and also that HRT could increase the risk of cardiovascular disease in such women. Therefore, our primary aim is to determine whether HRT use alters the risk of cancer-specific mortality in women with a range of common cancers. Our secondary objectives are to investigate whether HRT alters the risk of second cancers, cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

The study will utilise independent population-based data from Wales using the SAIL databank and Scotland based upon the national Prescribing Information System. The study will include women newly diagnosed with common cancers from 2000 to 2016, identified from cancer registries. Women with breast cancers will be excluded. HRT will be ascertained using electronic prescribing in Wales or dispensing records in Scotland. The primary outcome will be time to cancer-specific mortality from national mortality records. Time-dependent cox regression models will be used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cancer specific death in HRT users compared with non-users after cancer diagnosis after adjusting for relevant confounders, stratified by cancer site. Analysis will be repeated investigating the impact of HRT use immediately before cancer diagnosis. Secondary analyses will be conducted on the risk of second cancers, cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism and all-cause mortality. Analyses will be conducted within each cohort and pooled across cohorts.

DISCUSSION

Our study will provide evidence to inform guidance given to women diagnosed with cancer on the safety of HRT use and/or guide modifications to clinical practice.

Relation of severe COVID-19 to polypharmacy and prescribing of psychotropic drugs: the REACT-SCOT case-control study

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to investigate the relation of severe COVID-19 to prior drug prescribing.

METHODS

Severe cases were defined by entry to critical care or fatal outcome. For this matched case-control study (REACT-SCOT), all 4251 cases of severe COVID-19 in Scotland since the start of the epidemic were matched for age, sex and primary care practice to 36,738 controls from the population register. Records were linked to hospital discharges since June 2015 and dispensed prescriptions issued in primary care during the last 240 days.

RESULTS

Severe COVID-19 was strongly associated with the number of non-cardiovascular drug classes dispensed. This association was strongest in those not resident in a care home, in whom the rate ratio (95% CI) associated with dispensing of 12 or more drug classes versus none was 10.8 (8.8, 13.3), and in those without any of the conditions designated as conferring increased risk of COVID-19. Of 17 drug classes postulated at the start of the epidemic to be "medications compromising COVID", all were associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 and these associations were present in those without any of the designated risk conditions. The fraction of cases in the population attributable to exposure to these drug classes was 38%. The largest effect was for antipsychotic agents: rate ratio 4.18 (3.42, 5.11). Other drug classes with large effects included proton pump inhibitors (rate ratio 2.20 (1.72, 2.83) for = 2 defined daily doses/day), opioids (3.66 (2.68, 5.01) for = 50 mg morphine equivalent/day) and gabapentinoids. These associations persisted after adjusting for covariates and were stronger with recent than with non-recent exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe COVID-19 is associated with polypharmacy and with drugs that cause sedation, respiratory depression, or dyskinesia; have anticholinergic effects; or affect the gastrointestinal system. These associations are not easily explained by co-morbidity. Measures to reduce the burden of mortality and morbidity from COVID-19 should include reinforcing existing guidance on reducing overprescribing of these drug classes and limiting inappropriate polypharmacy.

REGISTRATION

ENCEPP number EUPAS35558.

Scotland's 2009-2015 methadone-prescription cohort: Quintiles for daily dose of prescribed methadone and risk of methadone-specific death

AIMS

As methadone clients age, their drug-related death (DRD) risks increase, more than doubling at 45+ years for methadone-specific DRDs.

METHODS

Using Community Health Index (CHI) numbers, mortality to 31 December 2015 was ascertained for 36 347 methadone-prescription clients in Scotland during 2009-2015. Cohort entry, quantity of prescribed methadone and daily dose (actual or recovered by effective, simple rules) were defined by clients' first CHI-identified methadone prescription after 30 June 2009 and used in proportional hazards analysis. As custodian of death records, National Records of Scotland identified non-DRDs from DRDs. Methadone-specific DRD means methadone was implicated but neither heroin nor buprenorphine.

RESULTS

The cohort's 192 928 person-years included 1857 non-DRDs and 1323 DRDs (42%), 546 of which were methadone specific. Actual/recovered daily dose was available for 26 533 (73%) clients who experienced 420 methadone-specific DRDs. Top quintile for daily dose at first CHI-identified methadone prescription was >90 mg. Age 45+ years at cohort-entry (hazard ratio vs 25-34 years: 3.1, 95% confidence interval: 2.4-4.2), top quintile for baseline daily dose of prescribed methadone (vs 50-70 mg: 1.9, 1.1-3.1) and being female (1.3, 1.0-1.6) significantly increased clients' risk of methadone-specific DRD.

CONCLUSION

Extra care is needed when methadone daily dose exceeds 90 mg. Females' higher risk for methadone-specific DRD is new and needs validation. Further analyses of prescribed daily dose linked to mortality for large cohorts of methadone clients are needed internationally, together with greater pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic understanding of methadone by age and sex. Balancing age-related risks is challenging for prescribers who manage chronic opiate dependency against additional uncertainty about the nature, strength and pharmacological characteristics of drugs from illegal markets.

Impact of EMA regulatory label changes on hydroxyzine initiation, discontinuation and switching to other medicines in Denmark, Scotland, England and the Netherlands: An interrupted time series regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Hydroxyzine is indicated for the management of anxiety, skin and sleep disorders. In 2015, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) concluded that hydroxyzine was pro-arrhythmogenic and changes to the product information were implemented in Europe. This study aimed to evaluate their impact in Denmark, Scotland, England and the Netherlands.

METHOD

Quarterly time series analyses measuring hydroxyzine initiation, discontinuation, and switching to other antihistamines, benzodiazepines and antidepressants in Denmark, England, Scotland and the Netherlands from 2009 to 2018. Data were analysed using interrupted time series regression.

RESULTS

Hydroxyzine initiation in quarter one 2010 in Denmark, Scotland, England and the Netherlands per 100 000 was: 23.5, 91.5, 35.9 and 34.4 respectively. Regulatory action was associated with a significant: immediate fall in hydroxyzine initiation per 100 000 in England (-12.05, 95%CI -18.47 to -5.63) and Scotland (-19.01, 95%CI -26.99 to -11.02); change to a negative trend in hydroxyzine initiation per 100 000/quarter in England (-1.72, 95%CI -2.69 to -0.75) and Scotland (-2.38, 95%CI -3.32 to -1.44). Regulatory action was associated with a significant: immediate rise in hydroxyzine discontinuation per 100 000 in England (3850, 95%CI 440-7240). No consistent changes were observed in the Netherlands or Denmark. Regulatory action was associated with no switching to other antihistamines, benzodiazepines or antidepressants following hydroxyzine discontinuation in any country.

CONCLUSION

The 2015 EMA regulatory action was associated with heterogeneous impact with reductions in hydroxyzine initiation varying by country. There was limited impact on discontinuation with no strong evidence suggesting unintended consequences of major switching to other antihistamines, benzodiazepines or antidepressants.

Linkage of national health and social care data: a cross-sectional study of multimorbidity and social care use in people aged over 65 years in Scotland

BACKGROUND

little is known about the relationship between multimorbidity and social care use (also known as long-term care). The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between receipt of formal social care services and multimorbidity.

METHODS

this retrospective data linkage, observational study included all individuals over the age of 65 in the population of Scotland in financial years 2014-15 and 2015-16 (n = 975,265). The main outcome was receipt of social care measured by presence in the Scottish Social Care Survey. Logistic regression models were used to assess the influence of multimorbidity, age, sex and socioeconomic position on the outcome reporting average marginal effects (AME).

FINDINGS

93.3% of those receiving social care had multimorbidity, 16.2% of those with multimorbidity received social care compared with 3.7% of those without. The strongest magnitudes of AME for receiving social care were seen for age and multimorbidity (respectively, 50 and 18% increased probability comparing oldest to youngest and most severe multimorbidity to none). A 5.5% increased probability of receiving social care was observed for the most-deprived compared with the least-deprived.

INTERPRETATION

higher levels of social care receipt are observed in those with increasing age, severe multimorbidity and living in more deprived areas. Multimorbidity does not fully moderate the relationship between social care receipt and either age or deprivation.

Use of sequence analysis for classifying individual antidepressant trajectories to monitor population mental health

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, antidepressant prescriptions have increased in European countries and the United States, partly due to an increase in the number of new cases of mental illness. This paper demonstrates an innovative approach to the classification of population level change in mental health status, using administrative data for a large sample of the Scottish population. We aimed to identify groups of individuals with similar patterns of change in pattern of prescribing, validate these groups by comparison with other indicators of mental illness, and characterise the population most at risk of increasing mental ill health.

METHODS

National Health Service (NHS) prescription data were linked to the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS), a 5.3% sample of the Scottish population (N = 151,418). Antidepressant prescription status over the previous 6 months was recorded for every month for which data were available (January 2009-December 2014), and sequence dissimilarity was computed by optimal matching. Hierarchical clustering was used to create groups of participants who had similar patterns of change, with multi-level logistic regression used to understand group membership.

RESULTS

Five distinct prescription pattern groups were observed, indicating: no prescriptions (76%), occasional prescriptions (10%), continuation of prior use of prescriptions (8%), a new course of prescriptions started (4%) or ceased taking prescriptions (3%). Young, white, female participants, of low social grade, residing in socially deprived neighbourhoods, living alone, being separated/divorced or out of the labour force, were more likely to be in the group that started a new course of antidepressant prescriptions.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of sequence analysis for classifying individual antidepressant trajectories offers a novel approach for capturing population-level changes in mental health risk. By classifying individuals into groups based on their anti-depressant medication use we can better identify how over time, mental health is associated with individual risk factors and contextual factors at the local level and the macro political and economic scale.

Polypharmacy and emergency readmission to hospital after critical illness: a population-level cohort study

BACKGROUND

Polypharmacy is common and closely linked to drug interactions. The impact of polypharmacy has not been previously quantified in survivors of critical illness who have reduced resilience to stressors. Our aim was to identify factors associated with preadmission polypharmacy and ascertain whether polypharmacy is an independent risk factor for emergency readmission to hospital after discharge from a critical illness.

METHODS

A population-wide cohort study consisting of patients admitted to all Scottish general ICUs between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2013, whom survived their ICU stay. Patients were stratified by presence of preadmission polypharmacy, defined as being prescribed five or more regular medications. The primary outcome was emergency hospital readmission within 1 yr of discharge from index hospital stay.

RESULTS

Of 23 844 ICU patients, 29.9% were identified with polypharmacy (n=7138). Factors associated with polypharmacy included female sex, increasing age, and social deprivation. Emergency 1-yr hospital readmission was significantly higher in the polypharmacy cohort (51.8% vs 35.8%, P<0.001). After confounder adjustment, patients with polypharmacy had a 22% higher hazard of emergency 1-yr readmission (adjusted hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.28, P<0.001). On a linear scale of polypharmacy each additional prescription conferred a 3% increase in hazard of emergency readmission by 1 yr (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.03, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This national cohort study of ICU survivors demonstrates that preadmission polypharmacy is an independent risk factor for emergency readmission. In an ever-growing era of polypharmacy, this risk factor may represent a substantial burden in the at-risk post-intensive care population.

Rapid Epidemiological Analysis of Comorbidities and Treatments as risk factors for COVID-19 in Scotland (REACT-SCOT): A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this study were to identify risk factors for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to lay the basis for risk stratification based on demographic data and health records.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The design was a matched case-control study. Severe COVID-19 was defined as either a positive nucleic acid test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the national database followed by entry to a critical care unit or death within 28 days or a death certificate with COVID-19 as underlying cause. Up to 10 controls per case matched for sex, age, and primary care practice were selected from the national population register. For this analysis-based on ascertainment of positive test results up to 6 June 2020, entry to critical care up to 14 June 2020, and deaths registered up to 14 June 2020-there were 36,948 controls and 4,272 cases, of which 1,894 (44%) were care home residents. All diagnostic codes from the past 5 years of hospitalisation records and all drug codes from prescriptions dispensed during the past 240 days were extracted. Rate ratios for severe COVID-19 were estimated by conditional logistic regression. In a logistic regression using the age-sex distribution of the national population, the odds ratios for severe disease were 2.87 for a 10-year increase in age and 1.63 for male sex. In the case-control analysis, the strongest risk factor was residence in a care home, with rate ratio 21.4 (95% CI 19.1-23.9, p = 8 × 10-644). Univariate rate ratios for conditions listed by public health agencies as conferring high risk were 2.75 (95% CI 1.96-3.88, p = 6 × 10-9) for type 1 diabetes, 1.60 (95% CI 1.48-1.74, p = 8 × 10-30) for type 2 diabetes, 1.49 (95% CI 1.37-1.61, p = 3 × 10-21) for ischemic heart disease, 2.23 (95% CI 2.08-2.39, p = 4 × 10-109) for other heart disease, 1.96 (95% CI 1.83-2.10, p = 2 × 10-78) for chronic lower respiratory tract disease, 4.06 (95% CI 3.15-5.23, p = 3 × 10-27) for chronic kidney disease, 5.4 (95% CI 4.9-5.8, p = 1 × 10-354) for neurological disease, 3.61 (95% CI 2.60-5.00, p = 2 × 10-14) for chronic liver disease, and 2.66 (95% CI 1.86-3.79, p = 7 × 10-8) for immune deficiency or suppression. Seventy-eight percent of cases and 52% of controls had at least one listed condition (51% of cases and 11% of controls under age 40). Severe disease was associated with encashment of at least one prescription in the past 9 months and with at least one hospital admission in the past 5 years (rate ratios 3.10 [95% CI 2.59-3.71] and 2.75 [95% CI 2.53-2.99], respectively) even after adjusting for the listed conditions. In those without listed conditions, significant associations with severe disease were seen across many hospital diagnoses and drug categories. Age and sex provided 2.58 bits of information for discrimination. A model based on demographic variables, listed conditions, hospital diagnoses, and prescriptions provided an additional 1.07 bits (C-statistic 0.804). A limitation of this study is that records from primary care were not available.

CONCLUSIONS

We have shown that, along with older age and male sex, severe COVID-19 is strongly associated with past medical history across all age groups. Many comorbidities beyond the risk conditions designated by public health agencies contribute to this. A risk classifier that uses all the information available in health records, rather than only a limited set of conditions, will more accurately discriminate between low-risk and high-risk individuals who may require shielding until the epidemic is over.