Cohort Profile: The Ageing Trajectories of Health - Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project

ClimateMind50+ a comprehensive short questionnaire to measure climate change knowledge, worries, preparedness, behaviours, and involvement of adults aged 50 and over

The ClimateMind50+ questionnaire is a tailored instrument to assess the knowledge, concerns, preparedness, behaviours, and involvement of individuals aged 50 and above. Older adults are particularly vulnerable to climate-related hazards such as extreme heat, flooding, and severe storms, yet their perspectives and contributions to climate resilience remain underrepresented in research. The systematic development of the ClimateMind50+ involved rigorous cognitive testing with diverse participants, ensuring clarity, accessibility, and relevance. The tool is designed for versatility in administration-face-to-face, via telephone, or self-completion-facilitating its integration across various research contexts. Cognitive testing highlighted the need for clear wording, simplified response scales, and age-appropriate framing of questions. For instance, questions on climate preparedness and sustainable practices were refined to capture lifetime actions ("ever") rather than limited timeframes, enhancing their relevance for older respondents. Additionally, the questionnaire effectively explores older adults' engagement in climate actions, from individual behavioural changes to advocacy and activism, challenging stereotypes of passivity in this demographic. By providing nuanced insights into the experiences of older adults and their potential contributions to climate mitigation and adaptation, the ClimateMind50+ offers a robust foundation for climate change research among older people. Its deployment can support policymaking and community initiatives aimed at reducing climate risks while promoting sustainable and healthy aging practices. This innovative tool underscores the importance of amplifying the voices of older adults in climate discourse and harnessing their capacities for fostering resilience.

Are healthy ageing trajectories suitable to identify rehabilitation needs of the ageing population? An exploratory study using ATHLOS cohort data

BACKGROUND

The ageing process is highly heterogeneous leading to diverse ageing trajectories. Such trajectories have been modelled to study trends and determinants of ageing and could potentially be used to inform the planning of rehabilitation services at population level. The objective of this paper was to explore whether healthy ageing trajectories are suitable to identify targets for rehabilitation interventions for the ageing population.

METHODS

Data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) harmonized cohort and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), which is included in ATHLOS, were used. Growth mixture models were implemented to replicate healthy ageing trajectories modelled elsewhere as 'high stable', 'low stable', and 'rapid decline'. Regularized partial correlation networks were used to estimate expected-influence and bridge expected-influence centrality measures.

RESULTS

Healthy ageing trajectories modelled with ATHLOS (N = 131116) and ELSA (N = 14904) were consistent with previous work. At the first individual wave, prevalence of problems of respondents in the 'high stable' and 'rapid decline' trajectories were comparable; at the last individual wave, prevalence remained similar for the 'high stable' but increased substantially in all domains for the 'rapid decline' trajectory. Expected-influence centrality measures provided different results than prevalence estimates. For instance, in the first individual wave mobility and carrying, moving, and handling objects had highest impact on overall functioning for the 'rapid decline' and 'high stable' trajectories, while the most prevalent functioning problems concerned cognition, pain, as well as energy and drive functions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study stressed the relevance of healthy ageing trajectories for identifying functioning domains and categories that need to be targeted by rehabilitation services in a heterogeneous ageing population. The use of such trajectories at country level has the potential to make a meaningful contribution to the planning and delivery of rehabilitation interventions through health systems and to informed policy making.

Physical Activity Participation Decreases the Risk of Depression in Older Adults: The ATHLOS Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

To which extent physical activity is associated with depression independent of older adults' physical and cognitive functioning is largely unknown. This cohort study using harmonised data by the EU Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies consortium, including over 20 countries, to evaluate the longitudinal association of physical activity (light-to-moderate or vigorous intensity) with depression in older adults (aged ≥ 50 years).

RESULTS

We evaluated 56,818 participants (light-to-moderate models; 52.7% females, age 50-102 years) and 62,656 participants (vigorous models; 52.7% females, age 50-105 years). Compared to never, light-to-moderate or vigorous physical activity was associated with a lower incidence rate ratio (IRR) of depression (light-to-moderate model: once/week: 0.632, 95% CI 0.602-0.663; twice or more/week: 0.488, 95% CI 0.468-0.510; vigorous model: once/week: 0.652, 95% CI 0.623-0.683; twice or more/week: 0.591, 95% CI 0.566-0.616). Physical activity remained associated with depression after adjustment for the healthy ageing scale, which is a scale that incorporated 41 items of physical and cognitive functioning (light-to-moderate model: once/week: 0.787, 95% CI 0.752-0.824; twice or more/week: 0.711, 95% CI 0.682-0.742; vigorous model: once/week: 0.828, 95% CI 0.792-0.866; twice or more/week: 0.820, 95% CI 0.786-0.856).

CONCLUSIONS

Physical activity, of any intensity and weekly frequency, was a strong protective factor against depression, independent of physical and mental functioning. Health policies could stimulate the incorporation of lower physical activity intensity to protect against depression, which might be more feasible at the population level.

The associations of physical incapacity and wealth with remaining in paid employment after age 60 in five middle-income and high-income countries

Previous studies on health and socioeconomic determinants of later-life labour force participation have mainly come from high-income European countries and the United States of America (USA). Findings vary between studies due to different measures of socioeconomic status and labour force outcomes. This study investigated longitudinal associations of physical incapacity and wealth with remaining in paid employment after age 60 in middle- and high-income countries. Using harmonised cohort data in the USA, England, Japan, Mexico and China (N=32,132), multilevel logistic regression was applied for main associations. The age-related probabilities of remaining in paid employment by physical incapacity and wealth were estimated using marginal effects. This study found that physical incapacity predicted lower odds of remaining in paid employment in each country. Wealth was associated with higher odds of remaining in paid employment in the USA, England, and Japan, but not in Mexico. Probabilities of remaining in paid employment were high in Mexico but low in China. The absolute difference in the probability of remaining in paid employment between the richest and the poorest groups was greater in the USA than that in any other country. In the USA, England and Japan, the inverse association between physical incapacity and remaining in paid employment could be partially compensated by wealth only when physical incapacity was not severe. National policies, including considering older adults' changing capacities for job placement and prioritising the provision of supportive services for socioeconomically disadvantaged older adults, developing pathways for informal workers to access social security and pension coverage, and encouraging employers to hire socioeconomically disadvantaged older workers and enhancing their employability, could be facilitated. Future studies, such as exploring health and socioeconomic determinants of remaining in part-time and full-time paid employment separately in more countries, and the moderating effects of relevant policies on these associations, are needed.

ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale score as the predictor of all-cause mortality in Poland and Czechia

Background

The ATHLOS consortium (Aging Trajectories of Health–Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies) used data from several aging cohorts to develop a novel scale measuring healthy aging comprehensively and globally (ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale). In the present study, we assessed the predictive performance of the ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale for all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older adults.

Methods

Data from the Polish and Czech HAPIEE (Health Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) prospective cohorts were used. There were 10,728 Poles and 8,857 Czechs recruited. The ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale score was calculated for all participants using data from the baseline examination carried out from 2002 to 2005. The follow-up for all-cause mortality was completed over 14 years. The associations between quintiles of the ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale and all-cause mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

A total of 9,922 Polish and 8,518 Czech participants contributed ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale and mortality data with 1,828 and 1,700 deaths, respectively. After controlling for age, the ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale score was strongly associated with mortality in a graded fashion for both genders and countries (hazard ratios for lowest vs. highest quintile were 2.98 and 1.96 for Czech and Polish women and 2.83 and 2.66 for Czech and Polish men, respectively). The associations were only modestly attenuated by controlling for education, economic activity, and smoking, and there was further modest attenuation after additional adjustment for self-rated health.

Conclusion

The novel ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale is a good predictor of all-cause mortality in Central European urban populations, suggesting that this comprehensive measure is a useful tool for the assessment of the future health trajectories of older persons.

Determinants of verbal fluency trajectories among older adults from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging

BACKGROUND

Prevalence of dementia and cognitive impairment increase creating the need for identifying modifiable risk factors to reduce their burden. The aim of this study was to identify latent groups following similar trajectories in cognitive performance assessed with the verbal fluency test, as well as their determinants.

METHODS

Data from English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) were studied. Latent groups of similar course through a 6-year period in the outcome variable (verbal fluency) were investigated, along with their determinants, using Group Based Trajectory Modeling (GBTM).

RESULTS

Four latent groups of verbal fluency trajectories were revealed. Education was the strongest predictor for a favorable trajectory, while cardiovascular disease and depression symptoms were associated with lower within each trajectory.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular diseases and depressive symptoms are associated with a worse course of verbal fluency through aging, implying that they might serve as targets for interventions to prevent cognitive decline in the aging population. Contrarily, higher level of education is associated with a more favorable course through aging.

A divisive hierarchical clustering methodology for enhancing the ensemble prediction power in large scale population studies: the ATHLOS project

The ATHLOS cohort is composed of several harmonized datasets of international groups related to health and aging. As a result, the Healthy Aging index has been constructed based on a selection of variables from 16 individual studies. In this paper, we consider additional variables found in ATHLOS and investigate their utilization for predicting the Healthy Aging index. For this purpose, motivated by the volume and diversity of the dataset, we focus our attention upon data clustering, where unsupervised learning is utilized to enhance prediction power. Thus we show the predictive utility of exploiting hidden data structures. In addition, we demonstrate that imposed computation bottlenecks can be surpassed when using appropriate hierarchical clustering, within a clustering for ensemble classification scheme, while retaining prediction benefits. We propose a complete methodology that is evaluated against baseline methods and the original concept. The results are very encouraging suggesting further developments in this direction along with applications in tasks with similar characteristics. A straightforward open source implementation for the R project is also provided (https://github.com/Petros-Barmpas/HCEP).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13755-022-00171-1.

Healthy aging and late-life depression in Europe: Does migration matter?

Background

There is limited research examining the impact of risk and protective factors on late-life depression using large population-based datasets, particularly those examining differences among older migrants and non-migrants in Europe countries. Thus, the first aim was to analyze differences between migrants and non-migrants regarding socioeconomic status, depression, multimorbidity, healthy aging, and lifestyle behaviors. The second aim was to examine the impact of healthy aging on late-life depression in older migrants compared to their counterparts without a history of international migration in extensive and harmonized data from different population-based cohort studies.

Materials and methods

We analyzed cross-sectional, predominantly nationally representative, community-based data from European participants in the Aging Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) cohort. The descriptive analyses included sociodemographic variables, somatic comorbidities, multimorbidity, healthy aging, and lifestyle behaviors according to migration status. The effects of these variables on late-life depression were examined in a multivariate logistic regression model, including migration status and years since migration as predictors.

Results

Data of 122,571 individuals aged ≥ 50 years were analyzed, of which 11,799 (9.60%) were migrants. The descriptive analyses indicated that compared to non-migrants, migrants showed a higher prevalence of diabetes (25.6%), hypertension (38.0%), coronary artery disease (49.4%), stroke (4.9%), and depression (31.1%). Healthy aging was also better in non-migrants (51.7; SD = 9.7) than in migrants (39.6; SD = 18.2). The results of the logistic regression showed that migration status [OR = 1.231 (CIs: 0.914-1.547)] and increased number of years since migration in the host country [OR = 0.003 (CIs: 0.001-0.005)] were associated with greater levels of depressive symptoms. Concerning health variables, multimorbidity was associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms [OR = 0.244 (CIs: 0.211-0.278)], whereas better healthy aging was associated with fewer depressive symptoms [OR = -0.100 (CIs: -0.102 to -0.098)]. The interaction between migration and healthy aging status was also significant [OR. = -0.019 (CIs: -0.025 to -0.014)].

Conclusion

Migrants reported higher risks for worse health outcomes compared to non-migrants. Significantly, worse healthy aging was associated with a greater risk of depressive symptoms in migrants than in non-migrants. Shedding light on migration and aging processes is essential for promoting a cross-cultural understanding of late-life depression in Europe.

Social Network and Environment as Determinants of Disability and Quality of Life in Aging: Results From an Italian Study

Background

The increase in life expectancy is leading to a worldwide increase in chronic diseases and disability, with significant concern about their management and long-term care. Investigating the aging process using a bio-psychosocial perspective is essential to understanding how to reduce disability and improve the quality of life of aging people. This study aims to explore the role of social networks and built environment as predictors of disability and quality of life in the Italian population aged over 50 years.

Materials and Methods

The research protocol is composed of several tools: World Health Organization Disability Assessment Scale 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0), World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment in Aging (WHOQOL-AGE), Social Network Index (SNI), the Courage Built Environment Self-Reported Questionnaire (CBE-SR), and collection of sociodemographic information and information on health system coverage.

Results

A total of 431 people were administered the protocol, and among them, 209 were males and 222 were females, with a mean age of 70 years. The majority of the sample reported earning a middle or high school diploma, and 60.6% of the sample declared to have a good health status. The results showed that people with a good social support network have higher levels of functioning and quality of life. However, the built environment did not significantly predict either disability or quality of life.

Conclusions

These results could provide elements for dialogue with institutions and policymakers. This is fundamental to develop active policies aimed at the implementation of services and systems to promote healthy aging process.

Assessing patterns and stability of ADL hierarchical scales for functional disability assessment

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This study examined the stability over time of activities of daily living (ADL) items in three comparable longitudinal datasets and evaluated ADL loss sequences for older adults in the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, and its two international sister surveys, were analyzed. Subjects were community-dwelling adults aged 60 and above. For each dataset, Rasch analysis was implemented to determine if the ordering of items remained stable across multiple waves (2006-2014), such that a single ADL hierarchy may be derived from multi-wave data.

RESULTS

Data fitted the Rasch model well. Item calibrations were sufficiently stable across measurement periods in each dataset, reflecting a stable frame of reference. Results were also robust to sample variations. The derived ADL hierarchies based on scaled logit scores revealed that "dressing" and "bathing" were relatively more difficult items for older adults in all study populations.

DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS

Scale stability is essential when exploiting longitudinal data to analyze patterns in ADL disabilities. The consistency in ADL scales across measurement periods supports their use as screening tools and identifying those at risk for transitions in care. Interventions to reduce dependency in bathing and dressing can help improve independent functioning for community-dwelling elderly.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults

Background

Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland.

Methods

We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health – Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982).

Results

Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026.

Conclusions

A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

How Healthy Aging and Contact With Children Are Associated With Satisfaction in Middle-Aged and Older Parents in China: A Mediation Analysis

Objectives

This study aims to examine the mediation role of satisfaction with children on the association between contact with children (CCT) and healthy aging among middle-aged and older parents in China.

Methods

Data from 9,575 parents over 45 years old were obtained from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey. A multinomial logistic regression model was applied to measure the association between contact, satisfaction, and healthy aging with potential confounders controlled. We used the Sobel-Goodman Mediation test to analyze the mediation role of satisfaction on the association between types of CCT and healthy aging.

Results

Parents with contact with adult children had higher satisfaction with children [for contact weekly (satisfied/unsatisfied): relative risk ratio (RRR) = 2.44, CI = 1.92-3.10] and higher healthy aging [for contact weekly (Q5/Q1): RRR = 1.41, CI = 1.13-1.77]. Satisfaction was strongly related to healthy aging [for satisfied (Q5/Q1): RRR = 3.44, CI = 2.14-5.51], and mediated 19.05% of healthy aging for weekly contact (Sobel test z = 4.338; indirect role = 0.014, CI = 0.011-0.018; direct role = 0.061, CI = 0.029-0.094). Subgroup analysis further revealed that satisfaction with contact played a partial mediating role between monthly contact and healthy aging in female and rural groups.

Conclusions

Monthly CCT is more appropriate for older parents. Satisfaction with children in older parents seems to act as a significant and partial mediator of the relationship between contact and healthy aging. The contribution of satisfaction to healthy aging could be important to be considered and promoted in women and rural older parents, independent of CCT.

Methodological challenges in harmonisation of the variables used as indicators of social capital in epidemiological studies of ageing – results of the ATHLOS project

The present article aims to highlight methodological aspects related to understanding and conceptualising social capital for the purposes of population research as well as describing the key challenges in the harmonisation process of indicators of social capital. The study was conducted in the frame of the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project. After a review of social capital theories developed in social science and a subsequent review of the documentation of 18 international cohorts, decision trees of the harmonisation of social variables were developed. The known-group validity was verified. The results focused on generalised trust, civic engagement and social participation are presented. The summary of the availability of any indicators of these concepts is classified in seven domains (generalised trust, political participation, religious participation, senior-specific participation, participation in sport groups, participation in volunteer/charity group activities, any participation) across surveys. The results of the analysis for known-group validity support the construct validity of the harmonised variables.

Experiences from the harmonization of Finnish national population-based health survey data

Aims: There are several advantages to pooling survey data from individual studies over time or across different countries. Our aim is to share our experiences on harmonizing data from 13 Finnish health examination surveys covering the years 1972–2017 and to describe the challenges related to harmonizing different variable types using two questionnaire variables – blood pressure measurement and total cholesterol assessment – as examples. Methods: Data from Finnish national population-based health surveys were harmonized as part of the research project ‘Projections of the Burden of Disease and Disability in Finland – Health Policy Prospects’, including variables from questionnaires, objective health measurements and results from the laboratory analysis of biological samples. The process presented in the Maelstrom Research guidelines for data harmonization was followed with minor adjustments. Results: The harmonization of data from objective measurements and biomarkers was reasonably straightforward, but questionnaire items proved more challenging. Some questions and response options had changed during the covered time period. This concerned, for example, questionnaire items on the availability and use of medication and diet. Conclusions: The long time period – 45 years – made harmonization more complicated. The survey questions or response options had changed for some topics due to changes in society. However, common core variables for topics that were especially relevant for the project, such as lifestyle factors and certain diseases or conditions, could be harmonized with sufficient comparability. For future surveys, the use of standardized survey methods and the proper documentation of data collection are recommended to facilitate harmonization.

Development of a common scale for measuring healthy ageing across the world: results from the ATHLOS consortium

BACKGROUND

Research efforts to measure the concept of healthy ageing have been diverse and limited to specific populations. This diversity limits the potential to compare healthy ageing across countries and/or populations. In this study, we developed a novel measurement scale of healthy ageing using worldwide cohorts.

METHODS

In the Ageing Trajectories of Health-Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project, data from 16 international cohorts were harmonized. Using ATHLOS data, an item response theory (IRT) model was used to develop a scale with 41 items related to health and functioning. Measurement heterogeneity due to intra-dataset specificities was detected, applying differential item functioning via a logistic regression framework. The model accounted for specificities in model parameters by introducing cohort-specific parameters that rescaled scores to the main scale, using an equating procedure. Final scores were estimated for all individuals and converted to T-scores with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10.

RESULTS

A common scale was created for 343 915 individuals above 18 years of age from 16 studies. The scale showed solid evidence of concurrent validity regarding various sociodemographic, life and health factors, and convergent validity with healthy life expectancy (r = 0.81) and gross domestic product (r = 0.58). Survival curves showed that the scale could also be predictive of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The ATHLOS scale, due to its reliability and global representativeness, has the potential to contribute to worldwide research on healthy ageing.

Risk of all-cause mortality associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the role of healthy ageing trajectories: a population-based study of middle-aged and older adults

OBJECTIVES

The aims were to study the risk of all-cause mortality associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and healthy ageing trajectories (HAT) in three birth cohorts and to determine the moderating role of HAT in the association between COPD and all-cause mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Data from waves 1 to 5 of The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe.

PARTICIPANTS

The total sample was 28 857 community-dwelling individuals aged 50+ years.

MAIN OUTCOME

All-cause mortality associated with COPD and HAT adjusting for covariates. We performed Aalen additive hazards models to explore these associations. Interactions between COPD and HAT were also explored. Analyses were conducted separately in three birth cohorts (>1945, 1936-1945 and ≤1935). Latent class growth analysis was used to classify participants into HAT.

RESULTS

Three parallel HAT were found in the three birth cohorts ('low', 'medium' and 'high' healthy ageing). Participants with COPD had an increased mortality risk, but this effect was no longer significant after adjusting for covariates. The 'low' HAT was associated with increased mortality risk in the three subsamples, although this effect was lower after adjustment. The interaction between COPD and HAT was significant only in the ≤1935 birth cohort, indicating that those with COPD and a 'low' trajectory had a greater risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The healthy ageing scale may be a suitable tool to identify patients at higher risk to mitigate disease burden and improve patients' quality of life.

Determinants of Processing Speed Trajectories among Middle Aged or Older Adults, and Their Association with Chronic Illnesses: The English Longitudinal Study of Aging

The aim of this study was to identify latent groups of similar trajectories in processing speed through aging, as well as factors that are associated with these trajectories. In the context of the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project, data from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) (n = 12099) were analyzed. Latent groups of similar trajectories in the processing scores as well as their predictors and covariates were investigated, using group-based trajectory models (GBTM). The coefficient estimates for potential group predictors correspond to parameters of multinomial logit functions that are integrated in the model. Potential predictors included sex, level of education, marital status, level of household wealth, level of physical activity, and history of smoking, while time-varying covariates included incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes mellitus, depressive symptoms, and sleep disturbances. Four trajectories were identified and named after their baseline scores and shapes: High (4.4%), Middle/Stable (31.5%), Low/Stable (44.5%), and Low Decline (19.6%). Female sex, higher levels of education, mild level of physical activity, having been married, and higher level of wealth were associated with a higher probability of belonging to any of the higher groups compared to the Low/Decline that was set as reference, while presence of CVD, diabetes mellitus, and depressive symptoms were associated with lower processing speed scores within most trajectories. All the aforementioned factors might be valid targets for interventions to reduce the burden of age-related cognitive impairment.

Trajectories of healthy ageing among older adults with multimorbidity: A growth mixture model using harmonised data from eight ATHLOS cohorts

Objectives

In this study we aimed to 1) describe healthy ageing trajectory patterns, 2) examine the association between multimorbidity and patterns of healthy ageing trajectories, and 3) evaluate how different groups of diseases might affect the projection of healthy ageing trajectories over time.

Setting and participants

Our study was based on 130880 individuals from the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) harmonised dataset, as well as 9171 individuals from Waves 2–7 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA).

Methods

Using a healthy ageing index score, which comprised 41 items, covering various domains of health and ageing, as outcome, we employed the growth mixture model approach to identify the latent classes of individuals with different healthy ageing trajectories. A multinomial logistic regression was conducted to assess if and how multimorbidity status and multimorbidity patterns were associated with changes in healthy ageing, controlled for sociodemographic and lifestyle risk factors.

Results

Three similar patterns of healthy ageing trajectories were identified in the ATHLOS and ELSA datasets: 1) a ‘high stable’ group (76% in ATHLOS, 61% in ELSA), 2) a ‘low stable’ group (22% in ATHLOS, 36% in ELSA) and 3) a ‘rapid decline’ group (2% in ATHLOS, 3% in ELSA). Those with multimorbidity were 1.7 times (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.4–2.1) more likely to be in the ‘rapid decline’ group and 11.7 times (OR = 11.7 95% CI: 10.9–12.6) more likely to be in the ‘low stable’ group, compared with people without multimorbidity. The cardiorespiratory/arthritis/cataracts group was associated with both the ‘rapid decline’ and the ‘low stable’ groups (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2–3.8 and OR = 9.8, 95% CI: 7.5–12.7 respectively).

Conclusion

Healthy ageing is heterogeneous. While multimorbidity was associated with higher odds of having poorer healthy ageing trajectories, the extent to which healthy ageing trajectories were projected to decline depended on the specific patterns of multimorbidity.

Sex differences in mortality: results from a population-based study of 12 longitudinal cohorts

BACKGROUND

Women generally have longer life expectancy than men but have higher levels of disability and morbidity. Few studies have identified factors that explain higher mortality in men. The aim of this study was to identify potential factors contributing to sex differences in mortality at older age and to investigate variation across countries.

METHODS

This study included participants age ≥ 50 yr from 28 countries in 12 cohort studies of the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) consortium. Using a 2-step individual participant data meta-analysis framework, we applied Cox proportional hazards modelling to investigate the association between sex and mortality across different countries. We included socioeconomic (education, wealth), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol consumption), social (marital status, living alone) and health factors (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders) as covariates or interaction terms with sex to test whether these factors contributed to the mortality gap between men and women.

RESULTS

The study included 179 044 individuals. Men had 60% higher mortality risk than women after adjustment for age (pooled hazard ratio [HR] 1.6; 95% confidence interval 1.5-1.7), yet the effect sizes varied across countries (I 2 = 71.5%, HR range 1.1-2.4). Only smoking and cardiovascular diseases substantially attenuated the effect size (by about 22%).

INTERPRETATION

Lifestyle and health factors may partially account for excess mortality in men compared with women, but residual variation remains unaccounted for. Variation in the effect sizes across countries may indicate contextual factors contributing to gender inequality in specific settings.

Socioeconomic inequalities in physical and cognitive functioning: cross-sectional evidence from 37 cohorts across 28 countries in the ATHLOS project

BACKGROUND

Physical and cognitive functioning in older age follows a socioeconomic gradient but it is unclear whether the strength of the association differs between populations. Using harmonised data from an international collaboration of cohort studies, we assessed socioeconomic inequalities in physical and cognitive functioning and explored if the extent of inequalities varied across countries based on their economic strength or wealth distribution.

METHODS

Harmonised data from 37 population-based cohorts in 28 countries were used, with an overall sample size of 126 765. Socioeconomic position of participants was indicated by education and household income. Physical functioning was assessed by self-reported mobility and activities of daily living; and cognitive functioning by memory and verbal fluency tests. Relative (RII) and slope (SII) index of inequality were calculated in each cohort, and their association with the source country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gini-index was assessed with correlation and cross-level interaction in multilevel models.

RESULTS

RII and SII values indicated consistently higher risk of low physical and cognitive functioning in participants with lower education or income across cohorts. Regarding RII, there were weak but statistically significant correlations and interactions with GDP and Gini-index, suggesting larger inequalities in countries with lower Gini-index and higher GDP. For SII, no such correlations were observed.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that socioeconomic inequalities in physical and cognitive functioning exist across different social contexts but the magnitude of these inequalities varies. Relative inequalities appear to be larger in higher-income countries but it remains to be seen whether such observation can be replicated.

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population's health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health trajectories of elderly population is a natural requirement. This study presents an innovative methodological framework for projecting the health of individuals using a dynamic microsimulation model that considers interactions between sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, bio-medical and behavioral risk factors. The model developed, called ATHLOS-Mic, is used to project the health of cohorts born before 1960 for the period 2015-2060 for selected European Countries using SHARE data to illustrate the possible effects of some selected risk factors and education on future health trajectories. Results show that, driven by a better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than the previous one at same age. Also, we see that, on average, an individual of our base population will live about 18 more years since the start of the projection period, but only 5 years in good health. Finally, we find that a scenario that removes the effect of having a low level of education on individual health has the largest impact on the projected average health, the average number of years lived per person, and the average number of years lived in good health.

Metabolic dysregulation in older adults with depression and loneliness: The ATHLOS study

This study aimed to examine how loneliness contributes to metabolic dysregulation among older adults with depression and determine the relative contribution of loneliness to the development of chronic diseases in late adulthood. Harmonised data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project were used. Concretely, the sample comprised 6195 participants (53.95% women; M = 61.30 years, SD = 7.11) from three European cohorts. Three groups were considered: control group (CG); depressive symptom episode group (DEP); and a group with depression and loneliness (DEP + LONE). A metabolic score was estimated using anthropometric and blood indicators, by means of multi-indicator multi-causes (MIMIC) modelling and after controlling for sociodemographic and health-related covariates. Group-comparison was based on measurement-invariance procedures. Multimorbidity development was predicted at follow-up considering the study group and relevant covariates. All the analyses were sex-specific. As a result, measurement invariance revealed the influence of group (ΔCFI = -0.017 for male participants and ΔCFI = -0.009 for female ones) on metabolic scores in both sexes. Metabolic scores were significantly lower (i.e., they had more metabolic risk) in DEP + LONE women in comparison to women from the other groups. DEP men showed the lowest metabolic scores but those from the DEP + LONE group showed meaningfully lower scores than CG men (d = 1.35). In terms of multimorbidity prediction, DEP + LONE group membership significantly predicted the outcome in both sexes; DEP group membership significantly predicted multimorbidity at follow-up in women. In summary, these results highlight the relevant contribution of loneliness in depression-related metabolic dysregulation in the short- (concurrent metabolic risk) and long-term (chronic condition development). Moreover, sex-specific mechanisms seem to be involved in metabolic alterations of depressed people showing loneliness feelings. This study calls for action to reduce the impact of loneliness in old age and to promote healthy ageing.

Multimorbidity patterns, all-cause mortality and healthy aging in older English adults: Results from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging

AIM

This study aimed to investigate the relationships between multimorbidity, healthy aging and mortality.

METHODS

Using data from 9171 individuals aged ≥50 years at wave 2 and mortality data at wave 5 of the English Longitudinal Study of Aging, a multiple linear regression model and a Cox proportional hazards model were used to investigate how multimorbidity patterns (identified as cardiorespiratory/arthritis/cataracts, metabolic and relatively healthy) were associated with a composite index of healthy aging (derived from 41 intrinsic capacity and functional ability items) and with mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 60% of the sample with multimorbidity had a moderate or high level of healthy aging. Both the cardiorespiratory/arthritis/cataracts group (n = 1826) and the metabolic group (n = 844) were negatively associated with healthy aging. The expected healthy aging index score decreased by 5.81 points (95% CI -6.69, -4.92) for the first group, and by 2.39 points (95% CI -3.54, -1.24) for the latter group. Only the cardiorespiratory/arthritis/cataracts group was positively associated with mortality. The risk of death for this group was 1.27-fold (95% CI: 1.14, 1.43) than the relatively healthy group. The relationship between multimorbidity patterns and mortality did not differ when considering levels of healthy aging.

CONCLUSIONS

Although it is not impossible for people with multimorbidity to age healthily, those with the most complex combination of diseases are at higher risk of death and have lower levels of healthy aging. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 1126-1132.

Overview of retrospective data harmonisation in the MINDMAP project: process and results

Background

The MINDMAP project implemented a multinational data infrastructure to investigate the direct and interactive effects of urban environments and individual determinants of mental well-being and cognitive function in ageing populations. Using a rigorous process involving multiple teams of experts, longitudinal data from six cohort studies were harmonised to serve MINDMAP objectives. This article documents the retrospective data harmonisation process achieved based on the Maelstrom Research approach and provides a descriptive analysis of the harmonised data generated.

Methods

A list of core variables (the DataSchema) to be generated across cohorts was first defined, and the potential for cohort-specific data sets to generate the DataSchema variables was assessed. Where relevant, algorithms were developed to process cohort-specific data into DataSchema format, and information to be provided to data users was documented. Procedures and harmonisation decisions were thoroughly documented.

Results

The MINDMAP DataSchema (v2.0, April 2020) comprised a total of 2841 variables (993 on individual determinants and outcomes, 1848 on environmental exposures) distributed across up to seven data collection events. The harmonised data set included 220 621 participants from six cohorts (10 subpopulations). Harmonisation potential, participant distributions and missing values varied across data sets and variable domains.

Conclusion

The MINDMAP project implemented a collaborative and transparent process to generate a rich integrated data set for research in ageing, mental well-being and the urban environment. The harmonised data set supports a range of research activities and will continue to be updated to serve ongoing and future MINDMAP research needs.

Ageing trajectories of health-longitudinal opportunities and synergies (ATHLOS) Healthy Ageing Scale in adults from 16 international cohorts representing 38 countries worldwide

BACKGROUND

Uniform international measurement tools for assessing healthy ageing are currently lacking.

OBJECTIVES

The study assessed the novel comprehensive global Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) Healthy Ageing Scale, using an Item Response Theory approach, for evaluating healthy ageing across populations.

DESIGN

Pooled analysis of 16 international longitudinal studies.

SETTING

38 countries in five continents.

SUBJECTS

International cohort (n=355 314), including 44.4% (n=153 597) males, aged (mean±SD) 61.7±11.5 years old.

METHODS

The ATHLOS Healthy Ageing Scale (including 41 items related to intrinsic capacity and functional ability) was evaluated in a pooled international cohort (n=355 314 from 16 studies) according to gender, country of residence and age group. It was also assessed in a subset of eight cohorts with ≥3 waves of follow-up assessment. The independent samples t-test and Mann-Whitney test were applied for comparing normally and skewed continuous variables between groups, respectively.

RESULTS

The ATHLOS Scale (range: 12.49-68.84) had a mean (±SD) value of 50.2±10.0, with males and individuals >65 years old exhibiting higher and lower mean scores, respectively. Highest mean scores were detected in Switzerland, Japan and Denmark, while lowest in Ghana, India and Russia. When the ATHLOS Scale was evaluated in a subset of cohorts with ≥3 study waves, mean scores were significantly higher than those of the baseline cohort (mean scores in ≥3 study waves vs baseline: 51.6±9.4 vs 50.2±10.0; p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The ATHLOS Healthy Ageing Scale may be adequately applied for assessing healthy ageing across populations.

Education and wealth inequalities in healthy ageing in eight harmonised cohorts in the ATHLOS consortium: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The rapid growth of the size of the older population is having a substantial effect on health and social care services in many societies across the world. Maintaining health and functioning in older age is a key public health issue but few studies have examined factors associated with inequalities in trajectories of health and functioning across countries. The aim of this study was to investigate trajectories of healthy ageing in older men and women (aged ≥45 years) and the effect of education and wealth on these trajectories.

METHODS

This population-based study is based on eight longitudinal cohorts from Australia, the USA, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Europe harmonised by the EU Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) consortium. We selected these studies from the repository of 17 ageing studies in the ATHLOS consortium because they reported at least three waves of collected data. We used multilevel modelling to investigate the effect of education and wealth on trajectories of healthy ageing scores, which incorporated 41 items of physical and cognitive functioning with a range between 0 (poor) and 100 (good), after adjustment for age, sex, and cohort study.

FINDINGS

We used data from 141 214 participants, with a mean age of 62·9 years (SD 10·1) and an age range of 45-106 years, of whom 76 484 (54·2%) were women. The earliest year of baseline data was 1992 and the most recent last follow-up year was 2015. Education and wealth affected baseline scores of healthy ageing but had little effect on the rate of decrease in healthy ageing score thereafter. Compared with those with primary education or less, participants with tertiary education had higher baseline scores (adjusted difference in score of 10·54 points, 95% CI 10·31-10·77). The adjusted difference in healthy ageing score between lowest and highest quintiles of wealth was 8·98 points (95% CI 8·74-9·22). Among the eight cohorts, the strongest inequality gradient for both education and wealth was found in the Health Retirement Study from the USA.

INTERPRETATION

The apparent difference in baseline healthy ageing scores between those with high versus low education levels and wealth suggests that cumulative disadvantage due to low education and wealth might have largely deteriorated health conditions in early life stages, leading to persistent differences throughout older age, but no further increase in ageing disparity after age 70 years. Future research should adopt a lifecourse approach to investigate mechanisms of health inequalities across education and wealth in different societies.

FUNDING

European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

The course of depression in late life: a longitudinal perspective

Depression in old age deserves special attention in view of the fact of progressive population ageing, because of the way in which depression and risk factors interact in this period of life and the particularly negative impact of late-life depression on health and quality of life. This editorial aims to provide some insight into longitudinal aspects of depression in old age. Depression may follow varying trajectories (e.g. episode emergence, recurrence) across the lifespan. Late-life depression is not an exception. A symptom-based approach is presented as an appropriate research method to study the predictors and course of affective syndromes in old age. Findings from our studies on depressive symptom trajectories in old age revealed that participants with a course of unremitting elevated symptoms showed the highest levels of loneliness across the trajectory groups and that participants with subclinical symptoms also showed higher levels of loneliness than their counterparts with a minimal-symptom course trajectory. This highlights the need to address loneliness as a way of dealing with depression in old age.

Multimorbidity patterns in low-middle and high income regions: a multiregion latent class analysis using ATHLOS harmonised cohorts

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to determine clusters of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in a very large, population-based sample of middle-aged and older adults from low- and middle-income (LMICs) and high-income (HICs) regions. Additionally, we explored the associations with several covariates.

DESIGN

The total sample was 72 140 people aged 50+ years from three population-based studies (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Study and Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health) included in the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project and representing eight regions with LMICs and HICs. Variables were previously harmonised using an ex-post strategy. Eight NCDs were used in latent class analysis. Multinomial models were made to calculate associations with covariates. All the analyses were stratified by age (50-64 and 65+ years old).

RESULTS

Three clusters were identified: 'cardio-metabolic' (8.93% in participants aged 50-64 years and 27.22% in those aged 65+ years), 'respiratory-mental-articular' (3.91% and 5.27%) and 'healthy' (87.16% and 67.51%). In the younger group, Russia presented the highest prevalence of the 'cardio-metabolic' group (18.8%) and England the 'respiratory-mental-articular' (5.1%). In the older group, Russia had the highest proportion of both classes (48.3% and 9%). Both the younger and older African participants presented the highest proportion of the 'healthy' class. Older age, being woman, widowed and with low levels of education and income were related to an increased risk of multimorbidity. Physical activity was a protective factor in both age groups and smoking a risk factor for the 'respiratory-mental-articular'.

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity is common worldwide, especially in HICs and Russia. Health policies in each country addressing coordination and support are needed to face the complexity of a pattern of growing multimorbidity.

The impact of physical activity on healthy ageing trajectories: evidence from eight cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Research has suggested the positive impact of physical activity on health and wellbeing in older age, yet few studies have investigated the associations between physical activity and heterogeneous trajectories of healthy ageing. We aimed to identify how physical activity can influence healthy ageing trajectories using a harmonised dataset of eight ageing cohorts across the world.

METHODS

Based on a harmonised dataset of eight ageing cohorts in Australia, USA, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, comprising 130,521 older adults (Mage = 62.81, SDage = 10.06) followed-up up to 10 years (Mfollow-up = 5.47, SDfollow-up = 3.22), we employed growth mixture modelling to identify latent classes of people with different trajectories of healthy ageing scores, which incorporated 41 items of health and functioning. Multinomial logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the associations between physical activity and different types of trajectories adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and other lifestyle behaviours.

RESULTS

Three latent classes of healthy ageing trajectories were identified: two with stable trajectories with high (71.4%) or low (25.2%) starting points and one with a high starting point but a fast decline over time (3.4%). Engagement in any level of physical activity was associated with decreased odds of being in the low stable (OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.19) and fast decline trajectories groups (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.50) compared to the high stable trajectory group. These results were replicated with alternative physical activity operationalisations, as well as in sensitivity analyses using reduced samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a positive impact of physical activity on healthy ageing, attenuating declines in health and functioning. Physical activity promotion should be a key focus of healthy ageing policies to prevent disability and fast deterioration in health.

Alcohol Drinking and Health in Ageing: A Global Scale Analysis of Older Individual Data through the Harmonised Dataset of ATHLOS

We investigated the relation between alcohol drinking and healthy ageing by means of a validated health status metric, using individual data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project. For the purposes of this study, the ATHLOS harmonised dataset, which includes information from individuals aged 65+ in 38 countries, was analysed (n = 135,440). Alcohol drinking was reflected by means of three harmonised variables: alcohol drinking frequency, current and past alcohol drinker. A set of 41 self-reported health items and measured tests were used to generate a specific health metric. In the harmonised dataset, the prevalence of current drinking was 47.5% while of past drinking was 26.5%. In the pooled sample, current alcohol drinking was positively associated with better health status among older adults ((b-coef (95% CI): 1.32(0.45 to 2.19)) and past alcohol drinking was inversely related (b-coef (95% CI): -0.83 (-1.51 to -0.16)) with health status. Often alcohol consumption appeared to be beneficial only for females in all super-regions except Africa, both age group categories (65-80 years old and 80+), both age group categories, as well as among all the financial status categories (all p < 0.05). Regional analysis pictured diverse patterns in the association for current and past alcohol drinkers. Our results report the need for specific alcohol intake recommendations among older adults that will help them maintain a better health status throughout the ageing process.

Pain rates in general population for the period 1991-2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991-2015 and to project 10-year pain rates.

METHODS

We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990-2015 and we applied Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content "self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview", with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality.

RESULTS

Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10-20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10-15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36-50.

CONCLUSIONS

Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates.

Predictors of pain in general ageing populations: results from a multi-country analysis based on ATHLOS harmonized database

BACKGROUND

Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people, and with increasing trends in general populations. Different risk factors for pain have been identified, but generally from studies with limited samples and a limited number of candidate predictors. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictors of pain from a large set of variables and respondents.

METHODS

We used part of the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, selecting studies and waves with a longitudinal course, and in which pain was absent at baseline and with no missing at follow-up. Predictors were selected based on missing distribution and univariable association with pain, and were selected from the following domains: Socio-demographic and economic characteristics, Lifestyle and health behaviours, Health status and functional limitations, Diseases, Physical measures, Cognition, personality and other psychological measures, and Social environment. Hierarchical logistic regression models were then applied to identify significant predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 13,545 subjects were included of whom 5348 (39.5%) developed pain between baseline and the average 5.2 years' follow-up. Baseline risk factors for pain were female gender (OR 1.34), engaging in vigorous exercise (OR 2.51), being obese (OR 1.36) and suffering from the loss of a close person (OR 1.88) whereas follow-up risk factors were low energy levels/fatigue (1.93), difficulties with walking (1.69), self-rated health referred as poor (OR 2.20) or average to moderate (OR 1.57) and presence of sleep problems (1.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that 39.5% of respondents developed pain over a five-year follow-up period, that there are proximal and distal risk factors for pain, and that part of them are directly modifiable. Actions aimed at improving sleep, reducing weight among obese people and treating fatigue would positively impact on pain onset, and avoiding vigorous exercise should be advised to people aged 60 or over, in particular if female or obese.

Stability of clinically relevant depression symptoms in old-age across 11 cohorts: a multi-state study

AIMS

To study the temporal dynamics of depression symptom episodes in old-age and the related influence of risk factors.

METHODS

Data from 41 362 old adults (54.61% women; mean age = 75.30, SD = 6.20) from the Ageing Trajectories of Health - Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project were used. Depressive symptoms were followed over an 18-year period. A multi-state model, comprising three statuses (no depression, new clinically relevant episode of symptoms and episode persistence), was fitted. Multinomial regression was used to study the role of risk factors in status transition.

RESULTS

Almost 85% of participants showed no depression, but prevalence became lower over time (B = -0.25, P < 0.001). New episode point prevalence was over 5.30% with a significant probability of moving to persistence status (transition probability = 0.27). Episode persistence became evident in 9.86% of episode status transitions, with increasing rate over time (B = 0.54, P < 0.01). Loneliness was proven to be the strongest predictor of episode emergence (OR = 17.76) and persistence (OR = 5.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The course of depression tends to become chronic and unremitting in old-age. This study may help to plan interventions to tackle symptom escalation and risk factor influence.