Human Coronavirus NL63 Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Patterns in Rural Coastal Kenya

Global Epidemiology and Seasonality of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses: A Systematic Review

Background

We characterized the global epidemiology and seasonality of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) OC43, NL63, 229E, and HKU1.

Methods

In this systematic review, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS, CINAHL, and backward citations for studies published until 1 September 2023. We included studies with ≥12 months of consecutive data and tested for ≥1 HCoV species. Case reports, review articles, animal studies, studies focusing on SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and/or Middle East respiratory syndrome, and those including <100 cases were excluded. Study quality and risk of bias were assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist tools. We reported the prevalence of all HCoVs and individual species. Seasonality was reported for studies that included ≥100 HCoVs annually. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022330902.

Results

A total of 201 studies (1 819 320 samples) from 68 countries were included. A high proportion were from China (19.4%; n = 39), whereas the Southern Hemisphere was underrepresented. Most were case series (77.1%, n = 155) with samples from secondary care (74.1%, n = 149). Seventeen (8.5%) studies included asymptomatic controls, whereas 76 (37.8%) reported results for all 4 HCoV species. Overall, OC43 was the most prevalent HCoV. Median test positivity of OC43 and NL63 was higher in children, and 229E and HKU1 in adults. Among 18 studies that described seasonality (17 from the Northern Hemisphere), circulation of all HCoVs mostly peaked during cold months.

Conclusions

In our comprehensive review, few studies reported the prevalence of individual HCoVs or seasonality. Further research on the burden and circulation of HCoVs is needed, particularly from Africa, South Asia, and Central/South America.

Lack of memory recall in human CD4 T cells elicited by the first encounter with SARS-CoV-2

The studies reported here focus on the impact of pre-existing CD4 T cell immunity on the first encounter with SARS-CoV-2. They leverage PBMC samples from plasma donors collected after a first SARS-CoV-2 infection, prior to vaccine availability and compared to samples collected prior to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Analysis of CD4 T cell specificity across the entire SARS-CoV-2 proteome revealed that the recognition of SARS-CoV-2-derived epitopes by CD4 memory cells prior to the pandemic are enriched for reactivity toward non-structural proteins conserved across endemic CoV strains. However, CD4 T cells after primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 focus on epitopes from structural proteins. We observed little evidence for preferential recall to epitopes conserved between SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal CoV, a finding confirmed through use of selectively curated conserved and SARS-unique peptides. Our data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 CD4 T cells elicited by the first infection are primarily established from the naive CD4 T cell pool.

Seasonal human coronavirus NL63 epidemics in children in Guilin, China, reveal the emergence of a new subgenotype of HCoV-NL63

Introduction

Seasonal human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) is a frequently encountered virus linked to mild upper respiratory infections. However, its potential to cause more severe or widespread disease remains an area of concern. This study aimed to investigate a rare localized epidemic of HCoV-NL63-induced respiratory infections among pediatric patients in Guilin, China, and to understand the viral subtype distribution and genetic characteristics.

Methods

In this study, 83 pediatric patients hospitalized with acute respiratory infections and positive for HCoV-NL63 were enrolled. Molecular analysis was conducted to identify the viral subgenotypes and to assess genetic variations in the receptor-binding domain of the spiking protein.

Results

Among the 83 HCoV-NL63-positive children, three subgenotypes were identified: C4, C3, and B. Notably, 21 cases exhibited a previously unreported subtype, C4. Analysis of the C4 subtype revealed a unique amino acid mutation (I507L) in the receptor-binding domain of the spiking protein, which was also observed in the previously reported C3 genotype. This mutation may suggest potential increases in viral transmissibility and pathogenicity.

Discussion

The findings of this study highlight the rapid mutation dynamics of HCoV-NL63 and its potential for increased virulence and epidemic transmission. The presence of a unique mutation in the C4 subtype, shared with the C3 genotype, raises concerns about the virus's evolving nature and its potential public health implications. This research contributes valuable insights into the understanding of HCoV-NL63's epidemiology and pathogenesis, which is crucial for effective disease prevention and control strategies. Future studies are needed to further investigate the biological significance of the observed mutation and its potential impact on the virus's transmissibility and pathogenicity.

Immunogenicity of Two Doses of BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine with a ChAdOx1-S Booster Dose among Navy Personnel in Mexico

Booster doses of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine have been recommended to improve and prolong immunity, address waning immunity over time, and contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. A heterologous booster vaccine strategy may offer advantages over a homologous approach. To compare the immunogenicity of two doses of BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine with a ChAdOx1-S booster dose, immunoglobulin G (IgG) anti-spike (anti-S) and anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) antibody titers (Ab) were compared over 1 year and post-booster vaccination. Results showed that, at 3- to 9-month assessments in vaccinated subjects, an-ti-N Ab were undetectable in participants with no history of COVID-19. In contrast, anti-S Ab measurements were lower than those with COVID-19, and a decrease was observed during the 9 months of observation. After booster vaccination, no differences were found in anti-S between participants who reported a history of COVID-19 and those who did not. Anti-S levels were higher after booster vaccination measurement vs. at 9 months in participants with COVID-19 and without COVID-19, i.e., independent of an infection history. Vaccine administration elicited a response of higher anti-S IgG levels in those infected before vaccination, although levels decreased during the first nine months. IgG anti-N titers were higher in participants with a history of declared infection and who were asymptomatic. The ChAdOx1-S booster increased anti-S Ab levels in participants regardless of whether they had been infected or not to a significantly higher value than with the first two vaccines. These findings underscore the importance of booster vaccination in eliciting a robust and sustained immune response against COVID-19, regardless of the prior infection status.

Pre-pandemic antibodies screening against SARS-CoV-2 and virus detection among children diagnosed with eruptive fevers

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG antibodies against the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (NP) proteins, as well as neutralizing antibodies against the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Additionally, it aims to detect viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2 in pre-pandemic archival pediatric specimens collected before the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic spread on March 20th, 2020, in Morocco. The objective is to investigate the existence of pre-pandemic immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study, to analyze IgG antibody levels in a cohort of 106 pre-pandemic pediatric participants. Using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), we measured the IgG levels against the S and NP proteins of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we staged a competitive ELISA assay to evaluate the neutralizing capability of these antibodies. We used reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) to detect viral NP and ORF1ab genes of SARS-CoV-2 in oropharyngeal swabs. Moreover, we conducted on the same specimens a multiplexed RT-PCR to detect RNA of the most common 27 pathogens involved in lower respiratory tract infections.

RESULTS

Among the 106 serum samples, 13% (nn = =14) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using ELISA. Temporal analysis indicated varying IgG positivity levels across 2019. Neutralizing antibodies were found in 21% of the 28 samples analyzed, including two with high inhibition rates (93%). The SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected using rRT-PCR in 14 samples. None of the samples tested positive for the other 27 pathogens associated with lower respiratory tract infections, using multiplexed RT-PCR.

CONCLUSION

Our study addresses the possibility, that COVID-19 infections occurred in Morocco before the recognized outbreak. On the other hand, some of the cases might reflect cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses or be influenced by previous viral exposures or vaccinations. Understanding these factors is crucial to comprehending pediatric immune responses to newly emerging infectious diseases.

Serum HCoV-spike specific antibodies do not protect against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents

SARS-CoV-2 infections in children are generally asymptomatic or mild and rarely progress to severe disease and hospitalization. Why this is so remains unclear. Here we explore the potential for protection due to pre-existing cross-reactive seasonal coronavirus antibodies and compare the rate of antibody decline for nucleocapsid and spike protein in serum and oral fluid against SARS-CoV-2 within the pediatric population. No differences in seasonal coronaviruses antibody concentrations were found at baseline between cases and controls, suggesting no protective effect from pre-existing immunity against seasonal coronaviruses. Antibodies against seasonal betacoronaviruses were boosted in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. In serum, anti-nucleocapsid antibodies fell below the threshold of positivity more quickly than anti-spike protein antibodies. These findings add to our understanding of protection against infection with SARS-CoV-2 within the pediatric population, which is important when considering pediatric SARS-CoV-2 immunization policies.

Structural insights into the modulation of coronavirus spike tilting and infectivity by hinge glycans

Coronavirus spike glycoproteins presented on the virion surface mediate receptor binding, and membrane fusion during virus entry and constitute the primary target for vaccine and drug development. How the structure dynamics of the full-length spikes incorporated in viral lipid envelope correlates with the virus infectivity remains poorly understood. Here we present structures and distributions of native spike conformations on vitrified human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) virions without chemical fixation by cryogenic electron tomography (cryoET) and subtomogram averaging, along with site-specific glycan composition and occupancy determined by mass spectrometry. The higher oligomannose glycan shield on HCoV-NL63 spikes than on SARS-CoV-2 spikes correlates with stronger immune evasion of HCoV-NL63. Incorporation of cryoET-derived native spike conformations into all-atom molecular dynamic simulations elucidate the conformational landscape of the glycosylated, full-length spike that reveals a role of hinge glycans in modulating spike bending. We show that glycosylation at N1242 at the upper portion of the stalk is responsible for the extensive orientational freedom of the spike crown. Subsequent infectivity assays implicated involvement of N1242-glyan in virus entry. Our results suggest a potential therapeutic target site for HCoV-NL63.

Tracking severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission and co-infection with other acute respiratory pathogens using a sentinel surveillance system in Rift Valley, Kenya

BACKGROUND

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been the most significant public health challenge in over a century. SARS-CoV-2 has infected over 765 million people worldwide, resulting in over 6.9 million deaths. This study aimed to detect community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and monitor the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 with other acute respiratory pathogens in Rift Valley, Kenya.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional active sentinel surveillance for the SARS-CoV-2 virus among patients with acute respiratory infections at four sites in Rift Valley from January 2022 to December 2022. One thousand two hundred seventy-one patients aged between 3 years and 98 years presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) were recruited into the study. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens from all study participants were screened using a reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

RESULTS

The samples that tested positive for influenza A (n = 73) and RSV (n = 12) were subtyped, while SARS-CoV-2 (n = 177) positive samples were further screened for 12 viral and seven bacterial respiratory pathogens. We had a prevalence of 13.9% for SARS-CoV-2, 5.7% for influenza A, 2% for influenza B and 1% for RSV. Influenza A-H1pdm09 and RSV B were the most dominant circulating subtypes of influenza A and RSV, respectively. The most common co-infecting pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 29) and Haemophilus influenzae (n = 19), accounting for 16.4% and 10.7% of all the SARS-CoV-2 positive samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Augmenting syndromic testing in acute respiratory infections (ARIs) surveillance is crucial to inform evidence-based clinical and public health interventions.

Prevalence and Molecular Epidemiology of Human Coronaviruses in Africa Prior to the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak: A Systematic Review

Coronaviruses, re-emerging in human populations, cause mild or severe acute respiratory diseases, and occasionally epidemics. This study systematically reviewed human coronavirus (HCoVs) infections in Africa prior to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Forty studies on the prevalence or molecular epidemiology of HCoVs were available from 13/54 African countries (24%). The first published data on HCoV was from South Africa in 2008. Eight studies (20%) reported on HCoV molecular epidemiology. Endemic HCoV prevalence ranged from 0.0% to 18.2%. The prevalence of zoonotic MERS-CoV ranged from 0.0% to 83.5%. Two studies investigated SARS-CoV infection, for which a prevalence of 0.0% was reported. There was heterogeneity in the type of tests used in determining HCoV prevalence. Two studies reported that risk factors for HCoV include exposure to infected animals or humans. The quantity of virologic investigations on HCoV on the African continent was scant, and Africa was not prepared for SARS-CoV-2.

Risk Assessment of the Possible Intermediate Host Role of Pigs for Coronaviruses with a Deep Learning Predictor

Swine coronaviruses (CoVs) have been found to cause infection in humans, suggesting that Suiformes might be potential intermediate hosts in CoV transmission from their natural hosts to humans. The present study aims to establish convolutional neural network (CNN) models to predict host adaptation of swine CoVs. Decomposing of each ORF1ab and Spike sequence was performed with dinucleotide composition representation (DCR) and other traits. The relationship between CoVs from different adaptive hosts was analyzed by unsupervised learning, and CNN models based on DCR of ORF1ab and Spike were built to predict the host adaptation of swine CoVs. The rationality of the models was verified with phylogenetic analysis. Unsupervised learning showed that there is a multiple host adaptation of different swine CoVs. According to the adaptation prediction of CNN models, swine acute diarrhea syndrome CoV (SADS-CoV) and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) are adapted to Chiroptera, swine transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) is adapted to Carnivora, porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis (PHEV) might be adapted to Primate, Rodent, and Lagomorpha, and porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) might be adapted to Chiroptera, Artiodactyla, and Carnivora. In summary, the DCR trait has been confirmed to be representative for the CoV genome, and the DCR-based deep learning model works well to assess the adaptation of swine CoVs to other mammals. Suiformes might be intermediate hosts for human CoVs and other mammalian CoVs. The present study provides a novel approach to assess the risk of adaptation and transmission to humans and other mammals of swine CoVs.

Unravelling Antigenic Cross-Reactions toward the World of Coronaviruses: Extent of the Stability of Shared Epitopes and SARS-CoV-2 Anti-Spike Cross-Neutralizing Antibodies

The human immune repertoire retains the molecular memory of a very great diversity of target antigens (epitopes) and can recall this upon a second encounter with epitopes against which it has previously been primed. Although genetically diverse, proteins of coronaviruses exhibit sufficient conservation to lead to antigenic cross-reactions. In this review, our goal is to question whether pre-existing immunity against seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs) or exposure to animal CoVs has influenced the susceptibility of human populations to SARS-CoV-2 and/or had an impact upon the physiopathological outcome of COVID-19. With the hindsight that we now have regarding COVID-19, we conclude that although antigenic cross-reactions between different coronaviruses exist, cross-reactive antibody levels (titers) do not necessarily reflect on memory B cell frequencies and are not always directed against epitopes which confer cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, the immunological memory of these infections is short-term and occurs in only a small percentage of the population. Thus, in contrast to what might be observed in terms of cross-protection at the level of a single individual recently exposed to circulating coronaviruses, a pre-existing immunity against HCoVs or other CoVs can only have a very minor impact on SARS-CoV-2 circulation at the level of human populations.

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused millions of deaths and substantial morbidity worldwide. Intense scientific effort to understand the biology of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in daunting numbers of genomic sequences. We witnessed evolutionary events that could mostly be inferred indirectly before, such as the emergence of variants with distinct phenotypes, for example transmissibility, severity and immune evasion. This Review explores the mechanisms that generate genetic variation in SARS-CoV-2, underlying the within-host and population-level processes that underpin these events. We examine the selective forces that likely drove the evolution of higher transmissibility and, in some cases, higher severity during the first year of the pandemic and the role of antigenic evolution during the second and third years, together with the implications of immune escape and reinfections, and the increasing evidence for and potential relevance of recombination. In order to understand how major lineages, such as variants of concern (VOCs), are generated, we contrast the evidence for the chronic infection model underlying the emergence of VOCs with the possibility of an animal reservoir playing a role in SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and conclude that the former is more likely. We evaluate uncertainties and outline scenarios for the possible future evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

Molecular mechanisms of human coronavirus NL63 infection and replication

Human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) is spread globally, causing upper and lower respiratory tract infections mainly in young children. HCoV-NL63 shares a host receptor (ACE2) with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and SARS-CoV-2 but, unlike them, HCoV-NL63 primarily develops into self-limiting mild to moderate respiratory disease. Although with different efficiency, both HCoV-NL63 and SARS-like CoVs infect ciliated respiratory cells using ACE2 as receptor for binding and cell entry. Working with SARS-like CoVs require access to BSL-3 facilities, while HCoV-NL63 research can be performed at BSL-2 laboratories. Thus, HCoV-NL63 could be used as a safer surrogate for comparative studies on receptor dynamics, infectivity and virus replication, disease mechanism, and potential therapeutic interventions against SARS-like CoVs. This prompted us to review the current knowledge on the infection mechanism and replication of HCoV-NL63. Specifically, after a brief overview on the taxonomy, genomic organization and virus structure, this review compiles the current HCoV-NL63-related research in virus entry and replication mechanism, including virus attachment, endocytosis, genome translation, and replication and transcription. Furthermore, we reviewed cumulative knowledge on the susceptibility of different cells to HCoV-NL63 infection in vitro, which is essential for successful virus isolation and propagation, and contribute to address different scientific questions from basic science to the development and assessment of diagnostic tools, and antiviral therapies. Finally, we discussed different antiviral strategies that have been explored to suppress replication of HCoV-NL63, and other related human coronaviruses, by either targeting the virus or enhancing host antiviral mechanisms.

Integrated analyses reveal a hinge glycan regulates coronavirus spike tilting and virus infectivity

Coronavirus spike glycoproteins presented on the virion surface mediate receptor binding, and membrane fusion during virus entry and constitute the primary target for vaccine and drug development. How the structure dynamics of the full-length spikes incorporated in viral lipid envelope correlates with the virus infectivity remains poorly understood. Here we present structures and distributions of native spike conformations on vitrified human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) virions without chemical fixation by cryogenic electron tomography (cryoET) and subtomogram averaging, along with site-specific glycan composition and occupancy determined by mass spectroscopy. The higher oligomannose glycan shield on HCoV-NL63 spikes than on SARS-CoV-2 spikes correlates with stronger immune evasion of HCoV-NL63. Incorporation of cryoET-derived native spike conformations into all-atom molecular dynamic simulations elucidate the conformational landscape of the glycosylated, full-length spike that reveals a novel role of stalk glycans in modulating spike bending. We show that glycosylation at N1242 at the upper portion of the stalk is responsible for the extensive orientational freedom of the spike crown. Subsequent infectivity assays support the hypothesis that this glycan-dependent motion impacts virus entry. Our results suggest a potential therapeutic target site for HCoV-NL63.

Validation of a SARS-CoV-2 Surrogate Virus Neutralization Test in Recovered and Vaccinated Healthcare Workers

Vaccination against COVID-19 is the main public health approach to fight against the pandemic. The Spike (S) glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is the principal target of the neutralizing humoral response. We evaluated the analytical and clinical performances of a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) compared to conventional neutralization tests (cVNTs) and anti-S eCLIA assays in recovered and/or vaccinated healthcare workers. Our results indicate that sVNTs displayed high specificity and no cross-reactivity. Both eCLIA and sVNT immunoassays were good at identifying cVNT serum dilutions ≥1:16. The optimal thresholds when identifying cVNT titers ≥1:16, were 74.5 U/mL and 49.4 IU/mL for anti-S eCLIA and sVNT, respectively. Our data show that neutralizing antibody titers (Nab) differ from one individual to another and may diminish over time. Specific assays such as sVNTs could offer a reliable complementary tool to routine anti-S serological assays.

Impact of human coronavirus infections on paediatric patients at a tertiary paediatric hospital: a retrospective study of the prepandemic era

BACKGROUND

Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) are important respiratory pathogens in humans and animals. Most HCoVs are emerging pathogens, with five known human pathogens identified in the last two decades.

AIM

To examine the clinical course of HCoV infection in children to improve understanding of severity and outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective review was undertaken of all encounters of children with known HCoV infection at a tertiary paediatric hospital from January 2015 to January 2018. Electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic data, HCoV type, viral co-pathogens, time to testing, need for hospitalization, requirement for higher-level care (HLC) including intensive care unit management and requirement for oxygen support, radiographic findings suggestive of lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease, and length of stay (LOS).

FINDINGS

In total, 450 encounters for 430 different patients were identified, with the majority (85%) being inpatient. OC43 was the most common HCoV. Younger patients (age <5 years) had higher probability of hospitalization [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-4.1], requirement for HLC (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0-3.1) and presence of LRT findings on chest radiographs (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.01-2.9). Clinical outcomes did not differ between HCoV types, except LOS which was longer for 229E. Fifty-two (11%) encounters were detected after 3 days of hospitalization (median 25.5 days), suggesting possible nosocomial infection.

CONCLUSION

HCoVs are important respiratory pathogens in the paediatric population, especially among patients aged <5 years who are at increased risk for severe disease. The role of HCoVs as hospital-acquired pathogens may be underappreciated.

Recurrence of disease in a patient with Covid-19: Re-activation or re-infection?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) was expected to induce a monophasic disease with subsequent immunity. However, case reports have since emerged which have found patients with either re-infection or re-activation of the virus. We describe a 44-year-old man with severe Covid-19-induced pneumonia who had recurrence of the disease after testing Covid-19-negative on three consecutive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. Our patient underlines that caution should be exercised while planning for discharge of a patient irrespective of his previous negative test, especially in vulnerable patients and those who had moderate-to-severe disease requiring the use of immunosuppressive therapy. The fact that such patients could experience a re-activation or re-infection, requires monitoring and vigilance in the management of the pandemic at individual and collective levels.

Reinfection and reactivation of SARS-CoV-2

As the cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection escalates, the essence of in-depth knowledge around acquired immunity and emergence of reinfection and reactivation have to be captured. While being a rare phenomenon, reinfection occurs as the result of diminishing protection conferred by antibodies, especially IgG. Reactivation is more concerned with the role of various elements including shedding lingering viral RNA for a prolonged time and incomplete resolution of infection along with the insight of dormant viral exosomes’ role. The concept of testing positive after two consecutive negative results requires proper discrimination of reinfection from reactivation. In this review, we summarized the current evidence for possible mechanisms leading to viral reactivation or test re-positivity. We also pointed out risk factors associated with both reinfection and reactivation.

Nasal Mucosa Exploited by SARS-CoV-2 for Replicating and Shedding during Reinfection

Reinfection risk is a great concern with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic because a large proportion of the population has recovered from an initial infection, and previous reports found that primary exposure to SARS-CoV-2 protects against reinfection in rhesus macaques without viral presence and pathological injury; however, a high possibility for reinfection at the current stage of the pandemic has been proven. We found the reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in Syrian hamsters with continuous viral shedding in the upper respiratory tracts and few injuries in the lung, and nasal mucosa was exploited by SARS-CoV-2 for replication and shedding during reinfection; meanwhile, no viral replication or enhanced damage was observed in the lower respiratory tracts. Consistent with the mild phenotype in the reinfection, increases in mRNA levels in cytokines and chemokines in the nasal mucosa but only slight increases in the lung were found. Notably, the high levels of neutralizing antibodies in serum could not prevent reinfection in hamsters but may play roles in benefitting the lung recovery and symptom relief of COVID-19. In summary, Syrian hamsters could be reinfected by SARS-CoV-2 with mild symptoms but with obvious viral shedding and replication, and both convalescent and vaccinated patients should be wary of the transmission and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2.

Origins and Evolution of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses

Four seasonal human coronaviruses (sHCoVs) are endemic globally (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), accounting for 5-30% of human respiratory infections. However, the epidemiology and evolution of these CoVs remain understudied due to their association with mild symptomatology. Using a multigene and complete genome analysis approach, we find the evolutionary histories of sHCoVs to be highly complex, owing to frequent recombination of CoVs including within and between sHCoVs, and uncertain, due to the under sampling of non-human viruses. The recombination rate was highest for 229E and OC43 whereas substitutions per recombination event were highest in NL63 and HKU1. Depending on the gene studied, OC43 may have ungulate, canine, or rabbit CoV ancestors. 229E may have origins in a bat, camel, or an unsampled intermediate host. HKU1 had the earliest common ancestor (1809-1899) but fell into two distinct clades (genotypes A and B), possibly representing two independent transmission events from murine-origin CoVs that appear to be a single introduction due to large gaps in the sampling of CoVs in animals. In fact, genotype B was genetically more diverse than all the other sHCoVs. Finally, we found shared amino acid substitutions in multiple proteins along the non-human to sHCoV host-jump branches. The complex evolution of CoVs and their frequent host switches could benefit from continued surveillance of CoVs across non-human hosts.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection prevents acute respiratory disease in Syrian hamsters but not replication in the upper respiratory tract

Human cases of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection have been documented throughout the pandemic, but are likely under-reported. In the current study, we use the Syrian hamster SARS-CoV-2 model to assess reinfection with homologous WA1 and heterologous B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.351 (Beta) SARS-CoV-2 variants over time. Upon primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 WA1, hamsters rapidly develop a strong and long-lasting humoral immune response. After reinfection with homologous and heterologous SARS-CoV-2 variants, this immune response protects hamsters from clinical disease, virus replication in the lower respiratory tract, and acute lung pathology. However, reinfection leads to SARS-CoV-2 replication in the upper respiratory tract with the potential for virus shedding. Our findings indicate that reinfection results in restricted SARS-CoV-2 replication despite substantial levels of humoral immunity, denoting the potential for transmission through reinfected asymptomatic individuals.

Divergent trajectories of antiviral memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

The trajectories of acquired immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection are not fully understood. We present a detailed longitudinal cohort study of UK healthcare workers prior to vaccination, presenting April-June 2020 with asymptomatic or symptomatic infection. Here we show a highly variable range of responses, some of which (T cell interferon-gamma ELISpot, N-specific antibody) wane over time, while others (spike-specific antibody, B cell memory ELISpot) are stable. We use integrative analysis and a machine-learning approach (SIMON - Sequential Iterative Modeling OverNight) to explore this heterogeneity. We identify a subgroup of participants with higher antibody responses and interferon-gamma ELISpot T cell responses, and a robust trajectory for longer term immunity associates with higher levels of neutralising antibodies against the infecting (Victoria) strain and also against variants B.1.1.7 (alpha) and B.1.351 (beta). These variable trajectories following early priming may define subsequent protection from severe disease from novel variants.

Antibody Dynamics and Durability in Coronavirus Disease-19

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID)-19 has emerged as the greatest global health threat in generations. An unprecedented mobilization of researchers has generated a wealth of data on humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 within a year of the pandemic's beginning. The rapidly developed understanding of acute-phase antibody induction and medium-term antibody durability in COVID-19 is important at an individual level to inform patient care and a population level to help predict transmission dynamics. In this brief review, we will describe the development and maintenance of antibody responses to immunization and infections generally and the specific antibody dynamics observed for COVID-19. These crucial features of the humoral response have implications for the use of antibody therapeutics against the virus and can inform the likelihood of reinfection of individuals by the virus.

Waning antibody responses in COVID-19: what can we learn from the analysis of other coronaviruses?

OBJECTIVES

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel betacoronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was declared a pandemic in March 2020. Due to the continuing surge in incidence and mortality globally, determining whether protective, long-term immunity develops after initial infection or vaccination has become critical.

METHODS/RESULTS

In this narrative review, we evaluate the latest understanding of antibody-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and to other coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the four endemic human coronaviruses) in order to predict the consequences of antibody waning on long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2. We summarise their antibody dynamics, including the potential effects of cross-reactivity and antibody waning on vaccination and other public health strategies. At present, based on our comparison with other coronaviruses we estimate that natural antibody-mediated protection for SARS-CoV-2 is likely to last for 1-2 years and therefore, if vaccine-induced antibodies follow a similar course, booster doses may be required. However, other factors such as memory B- and T-cells and new viral strains will also affect the duration of both natural and vaccine-mediated immunity.

CONCLUSION

Overall, antibody titres required for protection are yet to be established and inaccuracies of serological methods may be affecting this. We expect that with standardisation of serological testing and studies with longer follow-up, the implications of antibody waning will become clearer.

Study on Continuation of Antibody Prevalence Six Months after Detection of Subclinical Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infections

Objective To examine the continuation of antibody prevalence and background factors in antibody-positive subjects after asymptomatic infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods A study was carried out to investigate the SARS-CoV-2 antibody (IgG) prevalence. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (IgG) were measured and analyzed with immunochromatographic tests. Patients Among 1,603 subjects, comprising patients, physicians, and nurses at 65 medical institutes in Kanagawa, Japan, 39 antibody-positive subjects received follow-up for 6 months. Results Of the 33 subjects who consented to the follow-up (23 patients and 10 medical professionals), continued positivity of IgG antibodies was confirmed in 11 of 32 cases (34.4%) after 2 months, 8 of 33 (24.2%) after 4 months, and 8 of 33 (24.2%) after 6 months. A significant difference was found in the sleeping time, drinking habits, hypertension, and use of angiotensin-receptor blockers on comparing subject background characteristics among three groups: patients with antibody production that continued for six months after the first detection of positivity, patients in whom antibody production stopped at four months, and patients in whom antibody production stopped at two months. Conclusion The continuation rate of IgG antibody prevalence was 24.2% at 6 months after the first detection of antibody positivity in cases with asymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections. This percentage is low compared with the antibody continuation rate in patients who have recovered from symptomatic COVID-19 infection.

Pre-existing humoral immunity to human common cold coronaviruses negatively impacts the protective SARS-CoV-2 antibody response

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes diverse outcomes ranging from asymptomatic infection to respiratory distress and death. A major unresolved question is whether prior immunity to endemic, human common cold coronaviruses (hCCCoVs) impacts susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection or immunity following infection and vaccination. Therefore, we analyzed samples from the same individuals before and after SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We found hCCCoV antibody levels increase after SARS-CoV-2 exposure, demonstrating cross-reactivity. However, a case-control study indicates that baseline hCCCoV antibody levels are not associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Rather, higher magnitudes of pre-existing betacoronavirus antibodies correlate with more SARS-CoV-2 antibodies following infection, an indicator of greater disease severity. Additionally, immunization with hCCCoV spike proteins before SARS-CoV-2 immunization impedes the generation of SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibodies in mice. Together, these data suggest that pre-existing hCCCoV antibodies hinder SARS-CoV-2 antibody-based immunity following infection and provide insight on how pre-existing coronavirus immunity impacts SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is critical considering emerging variants.

The germinal centre B cell response to SARS-CoV-2

The germinal centre (GC) response is critical for the generation of affinity-matured plasma cells and memory B cells capable of mediating long-term protective immunity. Understanding whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or vaccination elicits a GC response has profound implications for the capacity of responding B cells to contribute to protection against infection. However, direct assessment of the GC response in humans remains a major challenge. Here we summarize emerging evidence for the importance of the GC response in the establishment of durable and broad immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and discuss new approaches to modulate the GC response to better protect against newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. We also discuss new findings showing that the GC B cell response persists in the draining lymph nodes for at least 6 months in some individuals following vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-based vaccines.

Immune response to SARS-CoV-2 Variants: A focus on severity, susceptibility, and preexisting immunity

The heterogeneous phenotypes among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has drawn worldwide attention, especially those with severe symptoms without comorbid conditions. Immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative virus of COVID-19, occur mainly by the innate immune response via the interferon (IFN)-mediated pathways, and the adaptive immunity via the T lymphocyte and the antibody mediated pathways. The ability of the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 strain, and possibly more so with new emerging variants, to antagonize IFN-mediated antiviral responses can be behind the higher early viral load, higher transmissibility, and milder symptoms compared to SARS-CoV and are part of the continued clinical evolution of COVID-19. Since it first emerged, several variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been circulating worldwide. Variants that have the potential to elude natural or vaccine-mediated immunity are variants of concern. This review focuses on the main host factors that may explain the immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in the context of susceptibility, severity, and preexisting immunity.

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 and Variant Diagnostic Testing Approaches in the United States

Purpose of Review Given the rapid development of diagnostic approaches to test for and diagnose infection with SARS-CoV-2 and its associated variants including Omicron (B.1.1.529), many options are available to diagnose infection. Multiple established diagnostic companies are now providing testing platforms whereas initially, testing was being performed with simple PCR-based tests using standard laboratory reagents. Recent Findings Additional testing platforms continue to be developed, including those to detect specific variants, but challenges with testing, including obtaining testing reagents and other related supplies, are frequently encountered. With time, the testing supply chain has improved, and more established companies are providing materials to support these testing efforts. In the United States (U.S.), the need for rapid assay development and subsequent approval through the attainment of emergency use authorization (EUA) has superseded the traditional arduous diagnostic testing approval workflow mandated by the FDA. Through these efforts, the U.S. has been able to continue to significantly increase its testing capabilities to address this pandemic; however, challenges still remain due to the diversity of the performance characteristics of tests being utilized and newly discovered viral variants. Summary This review provides an overview of the current diagnostic testing landscape, with pertinent information related to SARS-CoV-2 virology, variants and antibody responses that are available to diagnose infection in the U.S.

Immunological and Genetic Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection in an Otherwise Healthy, Young Marine Recruit

We used epidemiologic and viral genetic information to identify a case of likely reinfection in an otherwise healthy, young Marine recruit enrolled in the prospective, longitudinal COVID-19 Health Action Response for Marines (CHARM) study, and we paired these findings with serological studies. This participant had a positive RT-PCR to SARS-CoV-2 upon routine sampling on study day 7, although he was asymptomatic at that time. He cleared the infection within seven days. On study day 46, he had developed symptoms consistent with COVID-19 and tested positive by RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 again. Viral whole genome sequencing was conducted from nares swabs at multiple time points. The day 7 sample was determined to be lineage B.1.340, whereas both the day 46 and day 49 samples were B.1.1. The first positive result for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM serology was collected on day 49 and for IgG on day 91. This case appears most consistent with a reinfection event. Our investigation into this case is unique in that we compared sequence data from more than just paired specimens, and we also assayed for immune response after both the initial infection and the later reinfection. These data demonstrate that individuals who have experienced an infection with SARS-CoV-2 may fail to generate effective or long-lasting immunity, similar to endemic human beta coronaviruses.

Critical role of neutralizing antibody for SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and transmission

Cases of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 reinfection have been reported in a number of countries. Further, the level of natural immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection is not fully clear, nor is it clear if a primary infection is protective against reinfection. To investigate the potential association between serum antibody titres and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2, ferrets with different levels of NAb titres after primary SARS-CoV-2 infection were subjected to reinfection with a heterologous SARS-CoV-2 strain. All heterologous SARS-CoV-2 reinfected ferrets showed active virus replication in the upper respiratory and gastro-intestinal tracts. However, the high NAb titre group showed attenuated viral replication and rapid viral clearance. In addition, direct-contact transmission was observed only from reinfected ferrets with low NAb titres (<20), and not from other groups. Further, lung histopathology demonstrated the presence of limited inflammatory regions in the high NAb titre groups compared with control and low NAb groups. This study demonstrates a close correlation between a low NAb titre and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a recovered ferret reinfection model.

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

Evidence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Reinfection After Recovery from Mild Coronavirus Disease 2019

BACKGROUND

Positive results from real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) in recovered patients raise concern that patients who recover from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be at risk of reinfection. Currently, however, evidence that supports reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has not been reported.

METHODS

We conducted whole-genome sequencing of the viral RNA from clinical specimens at the initial infection and at the positive retest from 6 patients who recovered from COVID-19 and retested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via rRT-PCR after recovery. A total of 13 viral RNAs from the patients' respiratory specimens were consecutively obtained, which enabled us to characterize the difference in viral genomes between initial infection and positive retest.

RESULTS

At the time of the positive retest, we were able to acquire a complete genome sequence from patient 1, a 21-year-old previously healthy woman. In this patient, through the phylogenetic analysis, we confirmed that the viral RNA of positive retest was clustered into a subgroup distinct from that of the initial infection, suggesting that there was a reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 with a subtype that was different from that of the primary strain. The spike protein D614G substitution that defines the clade "G" emerged in reinfection, while mutations that characterize the clade "V" (ie, nsp6 L37F and ORF3a G251V) were present at initial infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Reinfection with a genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 strain may occur in an immunocompetent patient shortly after recovery from mild COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection may not confer immunity against a different SARS-CoV-2 strain.

Diagnostic Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Infection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Given the rapid development of diagnostic approaches to test for and diagnose infection with SARS-CoV-2, many options are available to assess infection. Multiple established diagnostic companies are now providing testing platforms whereas initially, testing was being performed with simple PCR-based tests using standard laboratory reagents.

RECENT FINDINGS

Additional testing platforms continue to be developed but challenges with testing, including obtaining testing reagents and other related supplies, are frequently encountered. With time, the testing supply chain will improve and more companies will be providing materials to support these testing efforts. In the USA, the need for rapid assay development and subsequent approval through attainment of emergency use authorization (EUA) has superseded the traditional arduous diagnostic testing approval workflow mandated by the FDA. It is anticipated that the USA will be able to continue to significantly increase its testing capabilities to address this pandemic; however, challenges remain due to the diversity of the performance characteristics of tests being utilized.

SUMMARY

This review provides an overview of the current diagnostic testing landscape, with pertinent information related to SARS-CoV-2 virology and antibody responses, that is available to diagnose infection.

Estimated prevalence of COVID-19 in Brazil with probabilistic bias correction

Using data collected by the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey - COVID-19 (PNAD-COVID19) and semi-Bayesian modelling developed by Wu et al., we have estimated the effect of underreporting of COVID-19 cases in Brazil as of December 2020. The total number of infected individuals is about 3 to 8 times the number of cases reported, depending on the state. Confirmed cases are at 3.1% of the total population and our estimate of total cases is at almost 15% of the approximately 212 million Brazilians as of 2020. The method we adopted from Wu et al., with slight modifications in prior specifications, applies bias corrections to account for incomplete testing and imperfect test accuracy. Our estimates, which are comparable to results obtained by Wu et al. for the United States, indicate that projections from compartmental models (such as SEIR models) tend to overestimate the number of infections and that there is considerable regional heterogeneity (results are presented by state).

SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection Is a New Challenge for the Effectiveness of Global Vaccination Campaign: A Systematic Review of Cases Reported in Literature

Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 seems to be a rare phenomenon. The objective of this study is to carry out a systematic search of literature on the SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in order to understand the success of the global vaccine campaigns. A systematic search was performed. Inclusion criteria included a positive RT-PCR test of more than 90 days after the initial test and the confirmed recovery or a positive RT-PCR test of more than 45 days after the initial test that is accompanied by compatible symptoms or epidemiological exposure, naturally after the confirmed recovery. Only 117 articles were included in the final review with 260 confirmed cases. The severity of the reinfection episode was more severe in 92/260 (35.3%) with death only in 14 cases. The observation that many reinfection cases were less severe than initial cases is interesting because it may suggest partial protection from disease. Another interesting line of data is the detection of different clades or lineages by genome sequencing between initial infection and reinfection in 52/260 cases (20%). The findings are useful and contribute towards the role of vaccination in response to the COVID-19 infections. Due to the reinfection cases with SARS-CoV-2, it is evident that the level of immunity is not 100% for all individuals. These data highlight how it is necessary to continue to observe all the prescriptions recently indicated in the literature in order to avoid new contagion for all people after healing from COVID-19 or becoming asymptomatic positive.

SARS-CoV-2 and approaches for a testing and diagnostic strategy

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented global health challenge, creating sudden, massive demands for diagnostic testing, treatment, therapies, and vaccines. In particular, the development of diagnostic assays for SARS-CoV-2 has been pursued as they are needed for quarantine, disease surveillance, and patient treatment. One of the major lessons the pandemic highlighted was the need for fast, cheap, scalable and reliable diagnostic methods, such as paper-based assays. Furthermore, it has previously been suggested that paper-based tests may be more suitable for settings with lower resource availability and may help alleviate some supply chain challenges which arose during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we explore how such devices may fit in a comprehensive diagnostic strategy and how some of the challenges to the technology, e.g. low sensitivity, may be addressed. We discuss the properties of the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself, the COVID-19 disease pathway, and the immune response. We then describe the different diagnostic strategies that have been pursued, focusing on molecular strategies for viral genetic material, antigen tests, and serological assays, and innovations for improving the diagnostic sensitivity and capabilities. Finally, we discuss pressing issues for the future, and what needs to be addressed for the ongoing pandemic and future outbreaks.

Adaptation of the endemic coronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E to the human host

Four coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-229E) are endemic in human populations. All these viruses are seasonal and generate short-term immunity. Like the highly pathogenic coronaviruses, the endemic coronaviruses have zoonotic origins. Thus, understanding the evolutionary dynamics of these human viruses might provide insight into the future trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Because the zoonotic sources of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E are known, we applied a population genetics-phylogenetic approach to investigate which selective events accompanied the divergence of these viruses from the animal ones. Results indicated that positive selection drove the evolution of some accessory proteins, as well as of the membrane proteins. However, the spike proteins of both viruses and the hemagglutinin-esterase (HE) of HCoV-OC43 represented the major selection targets. Specifically, for both viruses, most positively selected sites map to the receptor-binding domains (RBDs) and are polymorphic. Molecular dating for the HCoV-229E spike protein indicated that RBD Classes I, II, III, and IV emerged 3-9 years apart. However, since the appearance of Class V (with much higher binding affinity), around 25 years ago, limited genetic diversity accumulated in the RBD. These different time intervals are not fully consistent with the hypothesis that HCoV-229E spike evolution was driven by antigenic drift. An alternative, not mutually exclusive possibility is that strains with higher affinity for the cellular receptor have out-competed strains with lower affinity. The evolution of the HCoV-OC43 spike protein was also suggested to undergo antigenic drift. However, we also found abundant signals of positive selection in HE. Whereas such signals might result from antigenic drift, as well, previous data showing co-evolution of the spike protein with HE suggest that optimization for human cell infection also drove the evolution of this virus. These data provide insight into the possible trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, especially in case the virus should become endemic.

Seasonality of Respiratory Viruses at Northern Latitudes

IMPORTANCE

Every year, respiratory viruses exact a heavy burden on Canadian hospitals during winter months. Generalizable seasonal patterns of respiratory virus transmission may estimate the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 or other emerging pathogens.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the annual and biennial variation in respiratory virus seasonality in a northern climate.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study is an epidemiological assessment using population-based surveillance of patients with medically attended respiratory tract infection from 2005 through 2017 in Alberta, Canada. Incident cases of respiratory virus infection and infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalizations in Alberta were extracted from the Data Integration for Alberta Laboratories platform and Alberta Health Services Discharge Abstract Database, respectively. A deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible mathematical model with seasonal forcing function was fitted to the data for each virus. The possible future seasonal course of SARS-CoV-2 in northern latitudes was modeled on the basis of these observations. The analysis was conducted between December 15, 2020, and February 10, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Seasonal respiratory pathogens.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence (temporal pattern) of respiratory virus infections and RSV hospitalizations.

RESULTS

A total of 37 719 incident infections with RSV, human metapneumovirus, or human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, or HKU1 among 35 375 patients (18 069 [51.1%] male; median [interquartile range], 1.29 [0.42-12.2] years) were documented. A susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model mirrored the epidemiological data, including a striking biennial variation with alternating severe and mild winter peaks. Qualitative description of the model and numerical simulations showed that strong seasonal contact rate and temporary immunity lasting 6 to 12 months were sufficient to explain biennial seasonality in these various respiratory viruses. The seasonality of 10 212 hospitalizations among children younger than 5 years with RSV was also explored. The median (interquartile range) rate of hospitalizations per 1000 live births was 18.6 (17.6-19.9) and 11.0 (10.4-11.7) in alternating even (severe) and odd (less-severe) seasons, respectively (P = .001). The hazard of admission was higher for children born in severe (even) seasons compared with those born in less-severe (odd) seasons (hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.61-1.75; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this modeling study of respiratory viruses in Alberta, Canada, the seasonality followed a pattern estimated by simple mathematical models, which may be informative for anticipating future waves of pandemic SARS-CoV-2.

Why are there so few (or so many) circulating coronaviruses?

Despite vast diversity in non-human hosts and conspicuous recent spillover events, only a small number of coronaviruses have been observed to persist in human populations. This puzzling mismatch suggests substantial barriers to establishment. We detail hypotheses that might contribute to explain the low numbers of endemic coronaviruses, despite their considerable evolutionary and emergence potential. We assess possible explanations ranging from issues of ascertainment, historically lower opportunities for spillover, aspects of human demographic changes, and features of pathogen biology and pre-existing adaptive immunity to related viruses. We describe how successful emergent viral species must triangulate transmission, virulence, and host immunity to maintain circulation. Characterizing the factors that might shape the limits of viral persistence can delineate promising research directions to better understand the combinations of pathogens and contexts that are most likely to lead to spillover.

Evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging variants

The emergence of a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and more recently, the independent evolution of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants has generated renewed interest in virus evolution and cross-species transmission. While all known human coronaviruses (HCoVs) are speculated to have originated in animals, very little is known about their evolutionary history and factors that enable some CoVs to co-exist with humans as low pathogenic and endemic infections (HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1), while others, such as SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 have evolved to cause severe disease. In this review, we highlight the origins of all known HCoVs and map positively selected for mutations within HCoV proteins to discuss the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, we discuss emerging mutations within SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern (VOC), along with highlighting the demonstrated or speculated impact of these mutations on virus transmission, pathogenicity, and neutralization by natural or vaccine-mediated immunity.

Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population

The dynamics of immunity are crucial to understanding the long-term patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Several cases of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 have been documented 48-142 days after the initial infection and immunity to seasonal circulating coronaviruses is estimated to be shorter than 1 year. Using an age-structured, deterministic model, we explore potential immunity dynamics using contact data from the UK population. In the scenario where immunity to SARS-CoV-2 lasts an average of three months for non-hospitalized individuals, a year for hospitalized individuals, and the effective reproduction number after lockdown ends is 1.2 (our worst-case scenario), we find that the secondary peak occurs in winter 2020 with a daily maximum of 387 000 infectious individuals and 125 000 daily new cases; threefold greater than in a scenario with permanent immunity. Our models suggest that longitudinal serological surveys to determine if immunity in the population is waning will be most informative when sampling takes place from the end of the lockdown in June until autumn 2020. After this period, the proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is expected to increase due to the secondary wave. Overall, our analysis presents considerations for policy makers on the longer-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and suggests that strategies designed to achieve herd immunity may lead to repeated waves of infection as immunity to reinfection is not permanent. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

Evolution, Ecology, and Zoonotic Transmission of Betacoronaviruses: A Review

Coronavirus infections have been a part of the animal kingdom for millennia. The difference emerging in the twenty-first century is that a greater number of novel coronaviruses are being discovered primarily due to more advanced technology and that a greater number can be transmitted to humans, either directly or via an intermediate host. This has a range of effects from annual infections that are mild to full-blown pandemics. This review compares the zoonotic potential and relationship between MERS, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2. The role of bats as possible host species and possible intermediate hosts including pangolins, civets, mink, birds, and other mammals are discussed with reference to mutations of the viral genome affecting zoonosis. Ecological, social, cultural, and environmental factors that may play a role in zoonotic transmission are considered with reference to SARS-CoV, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 and possible future zoonotic events.

Etiology and clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses among children in Zhejiang Province, China 2017-2019

BACKGROUND

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerging has put global public health institutes on high alert. Little is known about the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of human coronaviruses infections in relation to infections with other respiratory viruses.

METHODS

From February 2017 to December 2019, 3660 respiratory samples submitted to Zhejiang Children Hospital with acute respiratory symptoms were tested for four human coronaviruses RNA by a novel two-tube multiplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays. Samples were also screened for the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription-PCR analysis.

RESULTS

Coronavirus RNAs were detected in 144 (3.93%) specimens: HCoV-HKU1 in 38 specimens, HCoV-NL63 in 62 specimens, HCoV-OC43 in 38 specimens and HCoV-229E in 8 specimens. Genomes for SARS-CoV-2 were absent in all specimens by RT-PCR analysis during the study period. The majority of HCoV infections occurred during fall months. No significant differences in gender, sample type, year were seen across species. 37.5 to 52.6% of coronaviruses detected were in specimens testing positive for other respiratory viruses. Phylogenic analysis identified that Zhejiang coronaviruses belong to multiple lineages of the coronaviruses circulating in other countries and areas.

CONCLUSION

Common HCoVs may have annual peaks of circulation in fall months in the Zhejiang province, China. Genetic relatedness to the coronaviruses in other regions suggests further surveillance on human coronaviruses in clinical samples are clearly needed to understand their patterns of activity and role in the emergence of novel coronaviruses.

Genetic Evidence and Host Immune Response in Persons Reinfected with SARS-CoV-2, Brazil

The dynamics underlying severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection remain poorly understood. We identified a small cluster of patients in Brazil who experienced 2 episodes of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in March and late May 2020. In the first episode, patients manifested an enhanced innate response compared with healthy persons, but neutralizing humoral immunity was not fully achieved. The second episode was associated with different SARS-CoV-2 strains, higher viral loads, and clinical symptoms. Our finding that persons with mild COVID-19 may have controlled SARS-CoV-2 replication without developing detectable humoral immunity suggests that reinfection is more frequent than supposed, but this hypothesis is not well documented.

T cell assays differentiate clinical and subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections from cross-reactive antiviral responses

Identification of protective T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2 requires distinguishing people infected with SARS-CoV-2 from those with cross-reactive immunity to other coronaviruses. Here we show a range of T cell assays that differentially capture immune function to characterise SARS-CoV-2 responses. Strong ex vivo ELISpot and proliferation responses to multiple antigens (including M, NP and ORF3) are found in 168 PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infected volunteers, but are rare in 119 uninfected volunteers. Highly exposed seronegative healthcare workers with recent COVID-19-compatible illness show T cell response patterns characteristic of infection. By contrast, >90% of convalescent or unexposed people show proliferation and cellular lactate responses to spike subunits S1/S2, indicating pre-existing cross-reactive T cell populations. The detection of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 is therefore critically dependent on assay and antigen selection. Memory responses to specific non-spike proteins provide a method to distinguish recent infection from pre-existing immunity in exposed populations.